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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final Euros polls show a picture that is far from clear
The final polls on the eve of the 2019 Euros look very confusing and it is hard to find a clear picture. The Tories range from 7% to 14% while the LDs are polling between 12% and 19%.
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Turnout will be the one to look at.
If as I suspect the polls are over estimating turnout that could throw up a surprise or two.0 -
> @TheScreamingEagles said:
> Turnout will be the one to look at.
>
> If as I suspect the polls are over estimating turnout that could throw up a surprise or two.
I think turnout will be >50%. This is the best proxy for a PV there could ever be.0 -
Interesting.Ishmael_Z said:> @TheScreamingEagles said:
> Turnout will be the one to look at.
>
> If as I suspect the polls are over estimating turnout that could throw up a surprise or two.
I think turnout will be >50%. This is the best proxy for a PV there could ever be.0 -
Xfer to new thread
> @Pro_Rata said:
> > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > Leadsom is a little chilly, but still less so than May. She's also a little more intelligent than May. A little intelligence is a dangerous thing, however.
> >
> > Mordaunt would be a better leader than either of them, if you're a committed Brexiter.
>
> Gut feeling - McVey.
>
> As gut feelings go, it's about as welcome as gastro enteritis.1 -
The man who voted against delivering Brexit at every chance has a message for his party:
https://twitter.com/stevebakerhw/status/1131301713741340672?s=210 -
Plaid 0 - 1%
UKIP 2 - 4%
SNP 3 - 4%
CHUK 3 - 5%
Green 4 - 12%
Tories 7 - 14%
Lib Dem 12 - 19%
Labour 13 - 25%
BXP 27 - 38 %
Simple averages :.
Plaid 0.5%
UKIP 3%
SNP 3.5%
CHUK 4%
Green 8%
Tories 11%
Lib Dem 15.5%
Labour 19%
Brexit 32.5%
3% Northern Ireland, various independents0 -
Sounds like a win-win to me!williamglenn said:The man who voted against delivering Brexit at every chance has a message for his party:
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TheScreamingEagles said:
Turnout will be the one to look at.
If as I suspect the polls are over estimating turnout that could throw up a surprise or two.
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Bollocks to Brexit - I am voting LD tomorrow!1
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My better half mentioned that elections were going on for the first time this evening - we have received leaflets from Brexit Party (x 3) and English Democrats. Nothing else that I've seen.
She voted Remain, does not like Brexit at all and usually votes Labour.
She said she did not know who to vote for.
One of the Brexit Party leaflets almost encourages a Labour vote if delivered to a remainer. Curiously enough it's been addressed to my other half's daughter -with an obviously european name.0 -
That proves it then: @Ishmael_Z can't be right about turnout - the scale only goes up to 45%!Sunil_Prasannan said:TheScreamingEagles said:Turnout will be the one to look at.
If as I suspect the polls are over estimating turnout that could throw up a surprise or two.
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Bollocks to all this bollocks.0
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williamglenn said:
The man who voted against
Me too.Benpointer said:
Sounds like a win-win to me!williamglenn said:The man who voted against delivering Brexit at every chance has a message for his party:
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It could be anywhere really, depends whether both sides are fired up, or only one of them is!Benpointer said:
That proves it then: @Ishmael_Z can't be right about turnover - the scale only goes up to 45%!Sunil_Prasannan said:TheScreamingEagles said:Turnout will be the one to look at.
If as I suspect the polls are over estimating turnout that could throw up a surprise or two.0 -
> @Scott_P said:
> https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1131304717433409536
Not the letter of someone intending to quit.0 -
What do you think it will be @TheScreamingEagles ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Interesting.Ishmael_Z said:> @TheScreamingEagles said:
> Turnout will be the one to look at.
>
> If as I suspect the polls are over estimating turnout that could throw up a surprise or two.
I think turnout will be >50%. This is the best proxy for a PV there could ever be.0 -
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Finally I’ve found someone in the Brexit Party I agree with, and would vote for.
https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1131305290589192192?s=210 -
> @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> Bollocks to Brexit - I am voting LD tomorrow!
>
> Bollocks to Brussels?
lol - Hobsons choice. Given where we are now Bollocks to Brexit is stronger in my preference. Maybe we compromise and Bollocks to May!0 -
So. It has happened. We have a new leader.
...
Ok, ok. I just got elected as chair of our Town Council. I was desperately hoping that May would resign tonight as that would have been a faintly hilarious coincidence, but sadly not.1 -
> @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> Bollocks to Brexit - I am voting LD tomorrow!
>
> Bollocks to Brussels?
On the plus side, they're about the same size and shape, but I'd still see a doctor for that if I were you Sunil.0 -
> @TheScreamingEagles said:
> Finally I’ve found someone in the Brexit Party I agree with, and would vote for.
>
> https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1131305290589192192?s=21
The poster makes it look like they’re attacking the Remoaner elite.0 -
Did anyone watch Cable vs Farage? Farage pulled Cable up on ‘Bollocks to Brexit’ saying it coarsened the debate and was surprised a man like Vince would condone the phrase as it wasn’t one he’d expect him to use.0
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> @williamglenn said:
> The man who voted against delivering Brexit at every chance has a message for his party:
>
> https://twitter.com/stevebakerhw/status/1131301713741340672?s=21
Well vote for the Withdrawal Agreement then you idiot!0 -
> @williamglenn said:
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > Finally I’ve found someone in the Brexit Party I agree with, and would vote for.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1131305290589192192?s=21
>
> The poster makes it look like they’re attacking the Remoaner elite.
One key rule of advertising. NEVER advertise your competition. People only see the logo.1 -
The led by donkeys campaign has surely been a net positive for The Brexit Party.williamglenn said:> @TheScreamingEagles said:
> Finally I’ve found someone in the Brexit Party I agree with, and would vote for.
>
>
The poster makes it look like they’re attacking the Remoaner elite.0 -
> @Pro_Rata said:
> Xfer to new thread
>
> > @Pro_Rata said:
> > > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > Leadsom is a little chilly, but still less so than May. She's also a little more intelligent than May. A little intelligence is a dangerous thing, however.
> > >
> > > Mordaunt would be a better leader than either of them, if you're a committed Brexiter.
> >
> > Gut feeling - McVey.
> >
> > As gut feelings go, it's about as welcome as gastro enteritis.
>
>
Leadsom is not more intelligent than May on any level even if a bit more personable0 -
> @Scott_P said:
> https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1131303186210447360
I would be surprised if the SNP don't get 3 MEPs and they have the chance of a fourth.0 -
> @isam said:
> Did anyone watch Cable vs Farage? Farage pulled Cable up on ‘Bollocks to Brexit’ saying it coarsened the debate and was surprised a man like Vince would condone the phrase as it wasn’t one he’d expect him to use.
The LD are shysters! I am still voting LD tomorrow though! Farage is a bigger shyster though. How did he get away with up to 500K of cash for personal use from Arron Banks?0 -
> @williamglenn said:
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1131304717433409536
>
> Not the letter of someone intending to quit.
Reads like a tutor putting to rights a capable but impetuous student.0 -
> @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> Turnout will be the one to look at.
>
>
>
> If as I suspect the polls are over estimating turnout that could throw up a surprise or two.
>
>
>
>
>
> That proves it then: @Ishmael_Z can't be right about turnover - the scale only goes up to 45%!
>
> It could be anywhere really, depends whether both sides are fired up, or only one of them is!
I agree. Tough one to call. When canvassing EVERYONE tells me they are voting. Oh, no they are not!0 -
Any more polls expected tonight?0
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> @HYUFD said:
> > @Pro_Rata said:
> > Xfer to new thread
> >
> > > @Pro_Rata said:
> > > > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > > Leadsom is a little chilly, but still less so than May. She's also a little more intelligent than May. A little intelligence is a dangerous thing, however.
> > > >
> > > > Mordaunt would be a better leader than either of them, if you're a committed Brexiter.
> > >
> > > Gut feeling - McVey.
> > >
> > > As gut feelings go, it's about as welcome as gastro enteritis.
> >
> >
>
> Leadsom is not more intelligent than May on any level even if a bit more personable
May demonstrates virtually no capacity to anticipate how anything will play out.
She's well intentioned, but that's not enough. Her inability to communicate confidently and persuasively was evident at her very first PMQs.0 -
The inaugural Euro elections in 1979 saw the Tories on 48% of the vote, winning 60 of 81 seats.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/05/20/putting-thursday-into-context-a-look-back-at-previous-uk-euro-elections/
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https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1131308842980130820
If the WAB does get published tomorrow, will there be any reporting on it allowed before the polls are closed?0 -
> @isam said:
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > Finally I’ve found someone in the Brexit Party I agree with, and would vote for.
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1131305290589192192
>
>
>
>
>
> The poster makes it look like they’re attacking the Remoaner elite.
>
> The led by donkeys campaign has surely been a net positive for The Brexit Party.
agreed0 -
Poles, Czechs, Germans, French, all EU members will be voting in the next 96 hoursBenpointer said:Any more polls expected tonight?
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> @AlastairMeeks said:
> https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1131306845363146758?s=21
It’s an interesting point. If there’s a big result for the Lib Dems, those pollsters who have them trailing behind Labour will have some thinking to do.0 -
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> @isam said:
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > Finally I’ve found someone in the Brexit Party I agree with, and would vote for.
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1131305290589192192
>
>
>
>
>
> The poster makes it look like they’re attacking the Remoaner elite.
>
> The led by donkeys campaign has surely been a net positive for The Brexit Party.
It's a terrible campaign. It looks as though it's a message on behalf of the BP.0 -
Does Leadsom get a statement in the Commons if she wants? Howe interesting that might be.0
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There is a pattern in those polls.
Average date of sampling fieldwork in reverse chronological order, followed by Brexit and Labour shares.
Most recent fieldwork:
BMG (1 day ago, Brexit 35%, Lab 18%)
You Gov (2 days ago, Brexit 37%, Lab 13%)
Opinium (3.5 days, Brexit 38%, Lab 17%)
Older fieldwork:
Panelbase (4.5 days, Brexit 30%, Lab 25%)
Kantar (4.5 days, Brexit 27%, Lab 24%)
Survation (5 days, Brexit 30%, Lab 24%)
Com Res (7 days, Brexit 32%, Lab 22%)
Even with house effects clearly distorting the picture, a pattern is clear - the polls with the most recent fieldwork have the highest Brexit shares and the lowest Labour shares.0 -
I'd put money on theBrexit Party being overstated for some reason. I know no one who is voting for them (other than myself), even Tory voters. And the Remainers who all.said 'I didn't vote for Brexit but respect the result and now want the government to get on with it' are - of course - all now breaking Lib Dem or Green.0
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> @williamglenn said:
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1131304717433409536
>
> Not the letter of someone intending to quit.
Surely she just has a Word macro to write these letters now, she's had to write so many of them.0 -
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The latest YouGov poll says turnout will be at least 54%, I will be amazed if it is that high.isam said:
What do you think it will be @TheScreamingEagles ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Interesting.Ishmael_Z said:> @TheScreamingEagles said:
> Turnout will be the one to look at.
>
> If as I suspect the polls are over estimating turnout that could throw up a surprise or two.
I think turnout will be >50%. This is the best proxy for a PV there could ever be.
History shows respondents overstate their likelihood to vote.
Look at Sunil's chart and the lowest turnout in the Euros was the most recent time the Euros didn't coincide with the locals, so I'd reckon turnout will be somewhere in the 30% to 40% range.0 -
> @Wulfrun_Phil said:
> Even with house effects clearly distorting the picture, a pattern is clear - the polls with the most recent fieldwork have the highest Brexit shares and the lowest Labour shares.
>
>
Nah, I think that's all house effects. Take a look at the YouGov and ComRes polls throughout the campaign and you will see that the house effect is massively larger than any trend over time - though I do think there is a small trend in TBP favour.0 -
> @thecommissioner said:
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Pro_Rata said:
> > > Xfer to new thread
> > >
> > > > @Pro_Rata said:
> > > > > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > > > Leadsom is a little chilly, but still less so than May. She's also a little more intelligent than May. A little intelligence is a dangerous thing, however.
> > > > >
> > > > > Mordaunt would be a better leader than either of them, if you're a committed Brexiter.
> > > >
> > > > Gut feeling - McVey.
> > > >
> > > > As gut feelings go, it's about as welcome as gastro enteritis.
> > >
> > >
> >
> > Leadsom is not more intelligent than May on any level even if a bit more personable
>
> May demonstrates virtually no capacity to anticipate how anything will play out.
>
> She's well intentioned, but that's not enough. Her inability to communicate confidently and persuasively was evident at her very first PMQs.
She was there for the details of the negotiations and if the Commons rejects the outcome of that again and she goes so does earnest, serious politics for the time being and on we go with Boris hard Brexit populism v Corbyn socialism populism.0 -
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Looks like a faceless bureaucrat they are taking the piss out ofthecommissioner said:> @isam said:
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > Finally I’ve found someone in the Brexit Party I agree with, and would vote for.
>
> >
>
> >
>
>
>
>
>
> The poster makes it look like they’re attacking the Remoaner elite.
>
> The led by donkeys campaign has surely been a net positive for The Brexit Party.
It's a terrible campaign. It looks as though it's a message on behalf of the BP.0 -
> @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > Turnout will be the one to look at.
>
> >
>
> > If as I suspect the polls are over estimating turnout that could throw up a surprise or two.
>
>
>
> I think turnout will be >50%. This is the best proxy for a PV there could ever be.
>
> Interesting.
>
> What do you think it will be @TheScreamingEagles ?
>
> The latest YouGov poll says turnout will be at least 54%, I will be amazed if it is that high.
>
> History shows respondents overstate their likelihood to vote.
>
> Look at Sunil's chart and the lowest turnout in the Euros was the most recent time the Euros didn't coincide with the locals, so I'd reckon turnout will be somewhere in the 30% to 40% range.
I’d go with 40-50. I know the LDs will be out knocking up, which doesn’t normally happen in Euro els.0 -
> @HYUFD said:
> https://twitter.com/RichardDawkins/status/1131310514242564102?s=20
Surely the easy response to this is 'But so is europhilism'.0 -
👍🏻TheScreamingEagles said:
The latest YouGov poll says turnout will be at least 54%, I will be amazed if it is that high.isam said:
What do you think it will be @TheScreamingEagles ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Interesting.Ishmael_Z said:> @TheScreamingEagles said:
> Turnout will be the one to look at.
>
> If as I suspect the polls are over estimating turnout that could throw up a surprise or two.
I think turnout will be >50%. This is the best proxy for a PV there could ever be.
History shows respondents overstate their likelihood to vote.
Look at Sunil's chart and the lowest turnout in the Euros was the most recent time the Euros didn't coincide with the locals, so I'd reckon turnout will be somewhere in the 30% to 40% range.0 -
> @thecommissioner said:
> > @isam said:
> > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> >
> > > Finally I’ve found someone in the Brexit Party I agree with, and would vote for.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1131305290589192192
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > The poster makes it look like they’re attacking the Remoaner elite.
> >
> > The led by donkeys campaign has surely been a net positive for The Brexit Party.
>
> It's a terrible campaign. It looks as though it's a message on behalf of the BP.
It's a terrible campaign and it's also a terrible breach of electoral campaign finance law.
https://order-order.com/2019/05/22/led-donkeys-questions-electoral-commission/0 -
> @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> The inaugural Euro elections in 1979 saw the Tories on 48% of the vote, winning 60 of 81 seats.
>
> http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/05/20/putting-thursday-into-context-a-look-back-at-previous-uk-euro-elections/
They of course used FPTP back then! I never understand whether Blair had to change to PR or he choose to do it. Given he is pro-European it was a pretty big own goal if he choose to do it as Farage would never had the success he has had under PR. A FPTP seat could of been circa 500,000 electors. Impossible for a candidate to get a significant personal vote outside one of the main established political parties in my view. The LD and the Greens both got punished by FPTP in European elections. I could not envisage Farage being punished any less by FPTP!0 -
We should empower the electorate by givIng/denying* them a second vote.
*delete as applicable.1 -
According to guido:
21:42 ITV’s Daniel Hewitt understands that the 1922 Executive has voted tonight on whether or not to change Tory party rules to allow a new confidence vote in Theresa May. The votes have been sealed in an envelope, and if the PM hasn’t announced she’s resigned by Friday, they will open it.0 -
> @williamglenn said:
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1131306845363146758?s=21
>
> It’s an interesting point. If there’s a big result for the Lib Dems, those pollsters who have them trailing behind Labour will have some thinking to do.
(Serious hat goes on for a minute)
Given the number of parties and newness of some of the parties, the published questions have varied quite a lot in how they prompt for the parties.
The Survation that didn't prompt party names at all and found not a single CHUK voter from ca. 150 Londoners where they had previously been polling 10%+ was a favourite. That the poll was the one used to then recommend LD tactical voting almost everywhere was a little fishy! That poll both announced and presaged the LD surge and CHUK fall back.0 -
I'd be surprised if turnout is higher than 45%. YouGov's prediction of 54% seems very high.0
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Instructions followedJonathan said:We should empower the electorate by givIng/denying* them a second vote.
*delete as applicable. 1 -
I recall there being a lot of speculation that Farage would be unable to shift his voting base across from UKIP in time, and would wind up with a tiny voteshare due to inertia. It appears he managed it. Love him or loathe him, he's incredibly effective (sometimes).0
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Mrs May has to stay in 10 Downing Street for another 7 days to overtake Gordon Brown.0
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The last Yougov of 2014, the one of the few that got the result pretty much spot on, had 55% 10/10 certain to vote. Of course actual turnout was ~20% lower.TheScreamingEagles said:
The latest YouGov poll says turnout will be at least 54%, I will be amazed if it is that high.isam said:
What do you think it will be @TheScreamingEagles ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Interesting.Ishmael_Z said:> @TheScreamingEagles said:
> Turnout will be the one to look at.
>
> If as I suspect the polls are over estimating turnout that could throw up a surprise or two.
I think turnout will be >50%. This is the best proxy for a PV there could ever be.
As long as your poll is representative of the group likely to vote i'm not sure it makes much different to the voteshares.0 -
> @The_Taxman said:
> > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> > The inaugural Euro elections in 1979 saw the Tories on 48% of the vote, winning 60 of 81 seats.
> >
> > http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/05/20/putting-thursday-into-context-a-look-back-at-previous-uk-euro-elections/
>
> They of course used FPTP back then! I never understand whether Blair had to change to PR or he choose to do it. Given he is pro-European it was a pretty big own goal if he choose to do it as Farage would never had the success he has had under PR. A FPTP seat could of been circa 500,000 electors. Impossible for a candidate to get a significant personal vote outside one of the main established political parties in my view. The LD and the Greens both got punished by FPTP in European elections. I could not envisage Farage being punished any less by FPTP!
It became a requirement of the EU to use one of a range of broadly proportional systems. The EU wasn’t happy at the distorted delegation the UK sent during the Thatcher years, the latter of course having resisted any move from FPTnP
Edit/ we could - and should - use STV, like Northern Ireland. People blame the EU for the closed list system, but it was actually a UK choice.0 -
> @KentRising said:
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/RichardDawkins/status/1131310514242564102?s=20
>
> Surely the easy response to this is 'But so is europhilism'.
As is Corbynism0 -
The end of May is more brutal and miserable than the end of any PM I can recall.0
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> @Scott_P said:
> https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1131313560037068800
So David Liddington takes over as interim leader until a new leader is elected in the autumn and the WA still has to go through with him as PM and if it does not pass MPs still have to vote on No Deal or revoke in October given Macron almost certainly vetoes further extension0 -
I wonder who grassed up the LedByDonkeys Greenpeace lot. So far they have been very very careful not to expose who they really are.0
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> @KentRising said:
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/RichardDawkins/status/1131310514242564102?s=20
>
> Surely the easy response to this is 'But so is europhilism'.
Except I think the voters may be thinking Brexit is more of a "drink the Kool-aid", death cult. I will stick my neck out and say I don't think TBP will break 35%0 -
You don't have to be a political genius to predict what's going to happen on Sunday night: Brexiteers will claim the result as a great victory because they'll win the most votes, while Remainers will also claim victory because the majority of people will have voted for parties supporting Remain.0
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The second part of that is not a given if, IF, recent polls are correctAndyJS said:You don't have to be a political genius to predict what's going to happen on Sunday night: Brexiteers will claim the result as a great victory because they'll win the most votes, while Remainers will also claim victory because the majority of people will have voted for parties supporting Remain.
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> @HYUFD said:
> > @KentRising said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > https://twitter.com/RichardDawkins/status/1131310514242564102?s=20
> >
> > Surely the easy response to this is 'But so is europhilism'.
>
> As is Corbynism
Should Brexitphobia (an irrational fear of leaving the EU) be made a criminal offence and talk of a people’s vote regarded as blasphemy?....0 -
> @HYUFD said:
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1131313560037068800
>
> So David Liddington takes over as interim leader until a new leader is elected in the autumn and the WA still has to go through with him as PM and if it does not pass MPs still have to vote on No Deal or revoke in October given Macron almost certainly vetoes further extension
There won’t be any veto. You don’t understand how the EU likes to work.0 -
> @williamglenn said:
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > Finally I’ve found someone in the Brexit Party I agree with, and would vote for.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1131305290589192192?s=21
>
> The poster makes it look like they’re attacking the Remoaner elite.<
++++
OMG. It does. You're completely right.
LedByDonkeys are so mulishly stupid they've managed to produce an attack ad that attacks themselves. That's impressive.0 -
> @AndyJS said:
> You don't have to be a political genius to predict what's going to happen on Sunday night: Brexiteers will claim the result as a great victory because they'll win the most votes, while Remainers will also claim victory because the majority of people will have voted for parties supporting Remain.
Remainers may not even be able to claim that, most polls have Brexit Party plus Tories plus UKIP plus DUP neck and neck with Labour plus LDs plus Greens plus SNP plus Plaid plus SF0 -
The European Parliamentary Elections Act 1999 (c.1) is an Act of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. The Act amended the procedures on European elections in the United Kingdom. It received Royal Assent on 14 January 1999, after the Parliament Acts 1911 and 1949 had been invoked, as the House of Lords had rejected the bill six times, refusing to accept the change in the electoral system proposed. The Parliament Acts are rarely invoked, the European Parliamentary Elections Act was only the fifth statute since 1911 enacted under their provisions, and only the second since the Parliament Act 1949.[2]The_Taxman said:> @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> The inaugural Euro elections in 1979 saw the Tories on 48% of the vote, winning 60 of 81 seats.
>
> http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/05/20/putting-thursday-into-context-a-look-back-at-previous-uk-euro-elections/
They of course used FPTP back then! I never understand whether Blair had to change to PR or he choose to do it. Given he is pro-European it was a pretty big own goal if he choose to do it as Farage would never had the success he has had under PR. A FPTP seat could of been circa 500,000 electors. Impossible for a candidate to get a significant personal vote outside one of the main established political parties in my view. The LD and the Greens both got punished by FPTP in European elections. I could not envisage Farage being punished any less by FPTP!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliamentary_Elections_Act_1999
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It's horrible that May is visibly upset. However, I really believe she will feel way better when the next phase of her life has begun. I know that people will look back on this time with respect for her character and I hope she remains in public life in a responsible and respected position.0
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> @isam said:
> You don't have to be a political genius to predict what's going to happen on Sunday night: Brexiteers will claim the result as a great victory because they'll win the most votes, while Remainers will also claim victory because the majority of people will have voted for parties supporting Remain.
>
> The second part of that is not a given if, IF, recent polls are correct
I think it's very likely if you include Labour in the pro-Remain total, although it's not clear this is the right thing to do for the whole of the Labour share since probably 20% or 30% of Labour voters are still pro-Brexit.0 -
Wes Streeting on Peston confirms he will vote for May's Deal if she adds a confirmatory referendum, could she go Ramsay MacMay or Robert Peel for a place in history and ditch most of her party?0
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> @kjohnw said:
> According to guido:
> 21:42 ITV’s Daniel Hewitt understands that the 1922 Executive has voted tonight on whether or not to change Tory party rules to allow a new confidence vote in Theresa May. The votes have been sealed in an envelope, and if the PM hasn’t announced she’s resigned by Friday, they will open it.
Schrodinger's PM.1 -
> @IanB2 said:
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1131313560037068800
> >
> > So David Liddington takes over as interim leader until a new leader is elected in the autumn and the WA still has to go through with him as PM and if it does not pass MPs still have to vote on No Deal or revoke in October given Macron almost certainly vetoes further extension
>
> There won’t be any veto. You don’t understand how the EU likes to work.
I understand exactly how the French like to work, they vetoed our original entry in the first place and Macron will complete the circle started by De Gaulle by kicking us out if need be if we cannot make up our minds0 -
Here's another bydonkeys classic - Cheaper housing for hard pressed Londoners !
https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/11312741410327470080 -
It's almost as if LedByDonkeys was run by a bunch of amateurs who just felt strongly about Brexit...Byronic said:> @williamglenn said:
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > Finally I’ve found someone in the Brexit Party I agree with, and would vote for.
> >
> >
>
> The poster makes it look like they’re attacking the Remoaner elite.<
++++
OMG. It does. You're completely right.
LedByDonkeys are so mulishly stupid they've managed to produce an attack ad that attacks themselves. That's impressive.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/07/billboard-campaigners-brexit-led-by-donkeys0 -
Quitting on Friday after the election but before the votes have been counted seems like the most ridiculous time to go IMO. What if the Tories do much better than expected on Sunday night?0
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LibDem endorsements over the last few days: Katy Brand, Emma Kennedy, Susan Penhaligon, Bamber Gascoigne, Greg Dyke, Simon Callow, Gus O’Donnell, Lord Cashman, George Osborne, Baron Cooper, Lord Heseltine, Heidi Allen (outside London & SE)0
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> @Jonathan said:
> The end of May is more brutal and miserable than the end of any PM I can recall.<
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Agreed.
But she has no one to blame but herself. Sadly. It was doomed from the moment she boxed herself in to an impossible Brexit, with her absurd red lines, at her first speech as leader to the Tory conference (and also managed to insult half the world with her "citizens of nowhere" bollocks).
It is a true tragedy: somebody morally decent destroyed by their own flaws.1 -
Wasn't that what you predicted in April before Macron... er, fell into line?HYUFD said:> @IanB2 said:
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > >
> >
> > So David Liddington takes over as interim leader until a new leader is elected in the autumn and the WA still has to go through with him as PM and if it does not pass MPs still have to vote on No Deal or revoke in October given Macron almost certainly vetoes further extension
>
> There won’t be any veto. You don’t understand how the EU likes to work.
I understand exactly how the French like to work, they vetoed our original entry in the first place and Macron will complete the circle started by De Gaulle by kicking us out if need be if we cannot make up our minds0 -
My gut tells me Brexit party is being overstated, tories maybe slightly understated (a proportion of previously loyal voters may chicken out of brexit party in the polling booth), Lib dems overstated and labour understated (by some pollsters). Think labour at around 20% seems likely. People like myself are fed up with labour (I voted for them in 2017 but am very much hoping they come third tomorrow with a bloody nose from the lib dems) but it's nothing like the existential crisis going on in the tories.0
This discussion has been closed.