> @NickPalmer said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > @tlg86 said: > > > An Independence from Europe got 1.4% of vote from the top of the ballot in 2014. > > > > > > I thought TBP wanted to be close to Ukip as they thought it might get them a few votes from people who went in to the polling booth looking for UKIP. > > > > Most voters aren’t that stupid. > > > > I think we exaggerate such effects. > > > > I tend to agree with Mike and it occurred to me when I saw the ballot - we saw the same effect in multi-ward local elections. Similarly I wonder if some of the Brexit votes will accidentally drift off to UKIP. I'm sure Casino is right that 95% of voters aren't influenced, but 5% would be important here.
The effect will be much stronger in multiseat wards. Many poeple think "I want to vote xx party", skim the ballot paper until they find "xx" party, and mark that one.
It is likely that there is a small top of ballot paper effect when eych party appears only once, but it would be hard to detect without doing a proper experiment.
What would be fair is if every individual ballot paper was printed with a random order of parties/candidates. I can't see the idea taking off tough.
I am sure that the Brexit Party is absolutely delighted by this opportunity to portray itself as persecuted by the establishment. If they weren't, they'd be pointing out that it's perfectly normal for the Electoral Commission to check that proper procedures are in place for tracking donations.
Alternative version: people who have a track record of being evasive about donations operating an unconventional structure and with a key fundraiser who has been convicted of money laundering offences being investigated.
Yes, that's a very interesting article indeed - a must-read.
It is. Very interesting. Italy was the testbed for a new type of politics at the start of the 20th century and seems to be doing the same in the 21st.
I loved this phrase "What users/members/customers are given is basically a window-dressing of participation.”
It is old wine in new digital bottles though. A mass movement built around a charismatic individual claiming to speak for the dispossessed and railing against conspiracies, elites and enemies.
Where have we seen this before?
I have a theory that whenever you get a big dislocation caused by a major change in media, it creates an opportunity for populists because the population won't have developed a defence of scepticism about the messages received via the new media. Examples would include the French Revolution (widely-available printed pamphlets), Mussolini and Hitler using radio to speak direct to voters, Berlusconi taking control of the TV medium, and the internet enabling the populists of today, such as Farage, Corbyn, Trump, and the Five Star movement, peddling their simplistic tosh. Once people get used to the new medium, the direct effect is less and messages received via it are put more into context.
I think that is an extraordinarily perceptive observation.
@Cyclefree said: > One dish you rarely get in Italian restaurants is a really good zabaglione, which when made well is food for the Gods.
> My mother made a superb version once even making it for me when I was in hospital with TB and literally wasting away in front of her eyes. I will never forget the look on the nurse's face when she came into my room and saw my mother whisking the Marsala wine and egg and sugar. She was about to say something, caught my mother's eye and beat a hasty retreat.
The first time I ever had zabaglione was at the legendary Conti’s café in Lampeter. Old Mr Conti was considering adding it to the menu and gave me a sample to see what I thought. I’d grown up in a working-class SW London family that considered itself progressive with food as Mum wasn’t afraid to use garlic, but I truthfully told him it was the best thing I’d ever tasted.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > https://www.twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1130804586606923776 > > > > I am sure that the Brexit Party is absolutely delighted by this opportunity to portray itself as persecuted by the establishment. If they weren't, they'd be pointing out that it's perfectly normal for the Electoral Commission to check that proper procedures are in place for tracking donations.
Isn't it odd that no other party has been checked?
> @YBarddCwsc said: > > @justin124 said: > > If Boris becomes Tory leader and a few Tory MPs resign the Whip to sit on the Opposition benches, the Government will lose its majority - even with DUP support - if Tory strength drops below 310 MPs. Difficult to see CUK propping him up so a VNOC could well pass. > > ---- > > I do think Boris is much more likely to go for an election than May. > > May's confidence is a quivering, gelatinous mush on the floor. > > Boris is more of a braggart. He'll believe he can take on and beat Corbyn. And maybe he can ..... who knows? > > An election is needed to resolve the mess. The parties must have clear proposals, and MPs unwilling to sign up to their party's manifesto commitment need to find a new party.
As I believe Alastair Meeks has suggested, if the Tories drop below - say - 308 as a result of defections or resignations of the Whip, it is not clear that Boris would become PM despite being the new Tory leader.
All the milkshake and electoral comission news re Brexit party is drowning out the other parties right now. Free publicity on stilts right at the point of the election !
Isn't it odd that no other party has been checked?
All the other main parties have been checked over the years. Only the Brexit Party is new (well, apart from Change UK, but presumably they are regarded as not worth bothering with).
I’m looking forward to see the sympathy levels for ex-Jamie Oliver group employees. I’m guessing because they’ll be substantially non-British and because Stakhanovite metal bashing and mining labour are the only real sorts of work then there won’t be trade union calls to prop them up.
> @Recidivist said: > Interesting Long Read in The Guardian today about how TBP have copied the Italian Five Star Movement model of direct internet democracy. > > https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/21/brexit-party-nigel-farage-italy-digital-populists-five-star-movement > > Yes, that's a very interesting article indeed - a must-read. > > It is. Very interesting. Italy was the testbed for a new type of politics at the start of the 20th century and seems to be doing the same in the 21st. > > I loved this phrase "What users/members/customers are given is basically a window-dressing of participation.” > > It is old wine in new digital bottles though. A mass movement built around a charismatic individual claiming to speak for the dispossessed and railing against conspiracies, elites and enemies. > > Where have we seen this before? > > I have a theory that whenever you get a big dislocation caused by a major change in media, it creates an opportunity for populists because the population won't have developed a defence of scepticism about the messages received via the new media. Examples would include the French Revolution (widely-available printed pamphlets), Mussolini and Hitler using radio to speak direct to voters, Berlusconi taking control of the TV medium, and the internet enabling the populists of today, such as Farage, Corbyn, Trump, and the Five Star movement, peddling their simplistic tosh. Once people get used to the new medium, the direct effect is less and messages received via it are put more into context. > > I think that is an extraordinarily perceptive observation.
it goes back even further, right back to the printing press
Isn't it odd that no other party has been checked?
All the other main parties have been checked over the years. Only the Brexit Party is new (well, apart from Change UK, but presumably they are regarded as not worth bothering with).
I think it is reasonable to go easy on the investigation of funding issues when a party appears to have very little in the way of funds.
Isn't it odd that no other party has been checked?
All the other main parties have been checked over the years. Only the Brexit Party is new (well, apart from Change UK, but presumably they are regarded as not worth bothering with).
The electoral commission visited TBP last week to check their procedures.
> @Ishmael_Z said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @Freggles said: > > > The key question is whether TBP have measures in place to check whether the same individual is making multiple donations in order to evade the £500 limit. Collecting name and PayPal email address isn't foolproof but it's probably what you can reasonably expect - if they're not doing that they should expect trouble. > > > > I wonder how they will view the People's Vote instructions asking donors to pay £499 specifically to avoid having to declare the donation sources. Hopefully they will be investigating that little scam as well. > > Agreed. Then we'll go after the bastards who drive at 69mph on the mnotorway, or take a 22kg suitcase when they have a 23kg luggage allowance. The sight of them getting away with it makes my blood boil.
And once again Ishmael the Ignorant completely misses the point.
> @Recidivist said: > Interesting Long Read in The Guardian today about how TBP have copied the Italian Five Star Movement model of direct internet democracy. > > https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/21/brexit-party-nigel-farage-italy-digital-populists-five-star-movement > > Yes, that's a very interesting article indeed - a must-read. > > It is. Very interesting. Italy was the testbed for a new type of politics at the start of the 20th century and seems to be doing the same in the 21st. > > I loved this phrase "What users/members/customers are given is basically a window-dressing of participation.” > > It is old wine in new digital bottles though. A mass movement built around a charismatic individual claiming to speak for the dispossessed and railing against conspiracies, elites and enemies. > > Where have we seen this before? > > I have a theory that whenever you get a big dislocation caused by a major change in media, it creates an opportunity for populists because the population won't have developed a defence of scepticism about the messages received via the new media. Examples would include the French Revolution (widely-available printed pamphlets), Mussolini and Hitler using radio to speak direct to voters, Berlusconi taking control of the TV medium, and the internet enabling the populists of today, such as Farage, Corbyn, Trump, and the Five Star movement, peddling their simplistic tosh. Once people get used to the new medium, the direct effect is less and messages received via it are put more into context. > > I think that is an extraordinarily perceptive observation.
> @GIN1138 said: > > @Richard_Nabavi said: > > https://www.twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1130804586606923776 > > > > > > > > I am sure that the Brexit Party is absolutely delighted by this opportunity to portray itself as persecuted by the establishment. If they weren't, they'd be pointing out that it's perfectly normal for the Electoral Commission to check that proper procedures are in place for tracking donations. > > Isn't it odd that no other party has been checked?
Obviously nothing found yet... First rule of audits is give them something minor to pick up on. They then can go away able to show they have looked.
> @YBarddCwsc said: > > @edmundintokyo said: > > > > CUK still look like they'd go down in flames if there was an election, so presumably they'd rather not have one. If they offered him a deal maybe he'd take it - it's not like he actually believes in anything, and he's not going to want to actually do whatever no-dealish pyromania he ran on. > > -- > > True. And indeed, it is more general than CHUK. > > Most MPs worry more about whether they'll make it back, if there is an election. > > A lot of Tory and Labour MPs won't be feeling too chipper about an election in the current febrile atmosphere. >
Are you seriously suggesting that Umana & Co will support Boris in a VoNC, so that the latter can implement a Hard Brexit?
If there is any one thing that CHUK stands for, it is preventing Brexit.
> @Nigelb said: > > @Recidivist said: > > Interesting Long Read in The Guardian today about how TBP have copied the Italian Five Star Movement model of direct internet democracy. > > > > https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/21/brexit-party-nigel-farage-italy-digital-populists-five-star-movement > > > > Yes, that's a very interesting article indeed - a must-read. > > > > It is. Very interesting. Italy was the testbed for a new type of politics at the start of the 20th century and seems to be doing the same in the 21st. > > > > I loved this phrase "What users/members/customers are given is basically a window-dressing of participation.” > > > > It is old wine in new digital bottles though. A mass movement built around a charismatic individual claiming to speak for the dispossessed and railing against conspiracies, elites and enemies. > > > > Where have we seen this before? > > > > I have a theory that whenever you get a big dislocation caused by a major change in media, it creates an opportunity for populists because the population won't have developed a defence of scepticism about the messages received via the new media. Examples would include the French Revolution (widely-available printed pamphlets), Mussolini and Hitler using radio to speak direct to voters, Berlusconi taking control of the TV medium, and the internet enabling the populists of today, such as Farage, Corbyn, Trump, and the Five Star movement, peddling their simplistic tosh. Once people get used to the new medium, the direct effect is less and messages received via it are put more into context. > > > > I think that is an extraordinarily perceptive observation. > > +1 for Richard's theory.
One thing to note is that every one of these new media propagates faster than the one before. This in turn requires quicker defences against the propagation of falsehoods - but right now the owners of those media refuse to take action.
> @matt said: > er https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1130804794610868224 > > > > I’m looking forward to see the sympathy levels for ex-Jamie Oliver group employees. I’m guessing because they’ll be substantially non-British and because Stakhanovite metal bashing and mining labour are the only real sorts of work then there won’t be trade union calls to prop them up.
I am reminded of a couple of years ago during the last Steel industry crisis when it looked like 4000 or so workers might lose their jobs. There were some ironic comparisons made with the UK oil industry which had at that point lost 120,000 jobs in just under 2 years with scarcely a comment from either government or the media.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > Isn't it odd that no other party has been checked? > > All the other main parties have been checked over the years. Only the Brexit Party is new (well, apart from Change UK, but presumably they are regarded as not worth bothering with).
It will be interesting to see the fundraising totals for the current quarter when they are available. I'd hazard a guess that other parties might not have been checked as their figures weren't a departure from trend (except perhaps on the downside). If a new party emerges and sees large amounts of donations, the Electoral Commission wouldn't be doing its job if it weren't to conduct checks.
I'm not sure there's much evidence alphabetical order is relevant except in multi-member wards.
In multi-member wards, it is very clear. Some people say, "I'll vote for my friend Fred as I know him from the pub... plus one of the two Labour candidates, who I don't know personally". In the absence of a preference between the two Labour candidates, they just mark the first one they come to. Others erroneously believe they only get one vote, and again go to the first person from their chosen party.
In the infamous Literal Democrat case years ago (before logos), the Lib Dem candidate was Adrian Sanders, well below the spoiler, Richard Huggett on the ballot. Given it was a Euro election and candidates' names were not well known, folk went for the first name under whom they thought they saw the words "Liberal Democrat" and for a sizable number that was Huggett.
None of that applies here. There's no vote splitting, you just get one vote, and we now have well known logos on ballots.
I suspect any impact will be negligible. I do think there is some potential for UKIP to hold up marginally better than expected as their logo is probably better known than the Brexit Party simply due to the party's long history. Having said that, the Brexit Party logo is clever, with the clear arrow to the box where they want the X placed - smart branding by them.
> @eristdoof said: > > @YBarddCwsc said: > > > @edmundintokyo said: > > > > > > CUK still look like they'd go down in flames if there was an election, so presumably they'd rather not have one. If they offered him a deal maybe he'd take it - it's not like he actually believes in anything, and he's not going to want to actually do whatever no-dealish pyromania he ran on. > > > > -- > > > > True. And indeed, it is more general than CHUK. > > > > Most MPs worry more about whether they'll make it back, if there is an election. > > > > A lot of Tory and Labour MPs won't be feeling too chipper about an election in the current febrile atmosphere. > > > > Are you seriously suggesting that Umana & Co will support Boris in a VoNC, so that the latter can implement a Hard Brexit? > > If there is any one thing that CHUK stands for, it is preventing Brexit.
---
I guess the words "offered him a deal" escaped your attention in the original posting.
Sounds like they are trying to come up with an excuse for the raid prompted by Brown’s speech. As if they would plan a routine check two days before an election.
> @ExiledInScotland said: > > @Nigelb said: > > > @Recidivist said: > > > Interesting Long Read in The Guardian today about how TBP have copied the Italian Five Star Movement model of direct internet democracy. > > > > > > https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/21/brexit-party-nigel-farage-italy-digital-populists-five-star-movement > > > > > > Yes, that's a very interesting article indeed - a must-read. > > > > > > It is. Very interesting. Italy was the testbed for a new type of politics at the start of the 20th century and seems to be doing the same in the 21st. > > > > > > I loved this phrase "What users/members/customers are given is basically a window-dressing of participation.” > > > > > > It is old wine in new digital bottles though. A mass movement built around a charismatic individual claiming to speak for the dispossessed and railing against conspiracies, elites and enemies. > > > > > > Where have we seen this before? > > > > > > I have a theory that whenever you get a big dislocation caused by a major change in media, it creates an opportunity for populists because the population won't have developed a defence of scepticism about the messages received via the new media. Examples would include the French Revolution (widely-available printed pamphlets), Mussolini and Hitler using radio to speak direct to voters, Berlusconi taking control of the TV medium, and the internet enabling the populists of today, such as Farage, Corbyn, Trump, and the Five Star movement, peddling their simplistic tosh. Once people get used to the new medium, the direct effect is less and messages received via it are put more into context. > > > > > > I think that is an extraordinarily perceptive observation. > > > > +1 for Richard's theory. > > One thing to note is that every one of these new media propagates faster than the one before. This in turn requires quicker defences against the propagation of falsehoods - but right now the owners of those media refuse to take action.
It's rather harder this time around. Previously when only 1-5 things was broadcast at any one time it was easy to control things.
Nowadays with 1 million things at one time and things being rapidly and continually moved to bypass filters (see the New Zealand Mosque attack live streams) it's not as easy as it used to be.
That isn't to say that firms aren't doing as much as they could do to keep things sane but its a lot harder than it previously was.
> > CUK still look like they'd go down in flames if there was an election, so presumably they'd rather not have one. If they offered him a deal maybe he'd take it - it's not like he actually believes in anything, and he's not going to want to actually do whatever no-dealish pyromania he ran on.
>
> --
>
> True. And indeed, it is more general than CHUK.
>
> Most MPs worry more about whether they'll make it back, if there is an election.
>
> A lot of Tory and Labour MPs won't be feeling too chipper about an election in the current febrile atmosphere.
>
Are you seriously suggesting that Umana & Co will support Boris in a VoNC, so that the latter can implement a Hard Brexit?
If there is any one thing that CHUK stands for, it is preventing Brexit.
Could be shortly irrelevant anyway if they Chuk in the towel after the Euros and join the LDs. Their only chance of holding their seats is joining lib dems en masse. LDs will only support Boris if it was a second ref attached to deal and even then, they probably fancy their chances of an election right now so would perhaps still not do a deal.
Putting aside the dubious merit of holding it in Baku at all, I have seen suggestions that Mkhitaryan's issue isn't so much with his personal security in Azerbaijan for the final (which would presumably be pretty tight), but with his own future security back in his native Armenia if he were to play in Azerbaijan. Which puts a slightly different gloss on it.
> @RobD said: > The electoral commission visited TBP last week to check their procedures. > > > I don't think that's right, at least not according to that bastion of truth the Guardian: > > [Farage] said his party last week went to the Electoral Commission to show them the checks and methods used and got “a clean bill of health”. > > https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/20/electoral-commission-visit-brexit-party-offices-funding-gordon-brown-paypal > > Fair enough, but you have to wonder why they didn’t do their ‘routine visit’ before the final week of the election. > > Update; > > https://www.twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1130812756469473280 > > > > Sounds like they are trying to come up with an excuse for the raid prompted by Brown’s speech. As if they would plan a routine check two days before an election.
With Leavers record in funding matters it's good that they are looking early.
> @Tissue_Price said: > > @tlg86 said: > > Off topic, but no Mkhi for Arsenal in Baku: > > > > https://www.arsenal.com/news/henrikh-mkhitaryan-miss-europa-league-final > > > > UEFA really are beyond contempt. > > Putting aside the dubious merit of holding it in Baku at all, I have seen suggestions that Mkhitaryan's issue isn't so much with his personal security in Azerbaijan for the final (which would presumably be pretty tight), but with his own future security back in his native Armenia if he were to play in Azerbaijan. Which puts a slightly different gloss on it.
It only needs one person to get on the pitch, though. Given that UEFA panders to the hatred between the two nations by keeping them apart in draws, neither should be considered suitable locations for European finals.
> Sounds like they are trying to come up with an excuse for the raid prompted by Brown’s speech. As if they would plan a routine check two days before an election.
With Leavers record in funding matters it's good that they are looking early.
It only needs one person to get on the pitch, though. Given that UEFA panders to the hatred between the two nations by keeping them apart in draws, neither should be considered suitable locations for European finals.
They do the same with for Russia (with Ukraine) and Spain (with Gibraltar).
> @Tissue_Price said: > It only needs one person to get on the pitch, though. Given that UEFA panders to the hatred between the two nations by keeping them apart in draws, neither should be considered suitable locations for European finals. > > They do the same with for Russia (with Ukraine) and Spain (with Gibraltar).
Equally as disgraceful and should stop all four from being eligible for finals. Okay, the Spain-Gib one is unlikely to be problematic, but it's not on.
EDIT: I'm really hoping that Armenia end up playing Azerbaijan in the play-offs for the Euros.
I suggest that you familiarise yourself with the provisions of the Serious Crime Act 2007 regarding the offence of encouraging others to commit a criminal office.
Is that the same state apparatus Nigel Farage runs to in tears when someone spills milk on him?
Yes, what a baby, he deserves to be assaulted etc. Pathetic.
Are the apparati of the state a) cruel people who investigate political parties for no reason, or b) good people who protect politicians from assault? You're currently holding both views simultaneously, which is confusing.
> Is that the same state apparatus Nigel Farage runs to in tears when someone spills milk on him?
>
> Yes, what a baby, he deserves to be assaulted etc. Pathetic.
I suggest that you familiarise yourself with the provisions of the Serious Crime Act 2007 regarding the offence of encouraging others to commit a criminal office.
On topic; the 'top of the ballot' effect is a genuine phenomenon that can make a statistically significant difference to results. However, two points; I very much doubt a quirk of psychology will save CUK from a fate worse than oblivion. Secondly, the overall impact on the remainer cause may actually be negative. Presumably any increase in votes for CUK is most likely to come from LDs or green. Splitting the vote in this way under D'Hondt probably won't produce more CUK seats but will harm the LDs.
> @Gallowgate said: > Good afternoon, my fellow Andrastians. > > Just think, in two days I'll be agonising about how to spoil my ballot. > > Artistic penis is always a good option.
I'd suggest using a pencil myself, but each to their own.
> @Gallowgate said: > Good afternoon, my fellow Andrastians. > > Just think, in two days I'll be agonising about how to spoil my ballot. > > Artistic penis is always a good option.
Didn't one candidate successfully argue that such a drawing next to his name was an indication that the voter supported him?
Is that the same state apparatus Nigel Farage runs to in tears when someone spills milk on him?
Yes, what a baby, he deserves to be assaulted etc. Pathetic.
Are the apparati of the state a) cruel people who investigate political parties for no reason, or b) good people who protect politicians from assault? You're currently holding both views simultaneously, which is confusing.
You are aware that they are two very distinct bodies? In any case, the police acted because there was direct evidence of a crime, what are the electoral commission doing? They themselves have admitted there is no evidence.
> @Gallowgate said: > Good afternoon, my fellow Andrastians. > > Just think, in two days I'll be agonising about how to spoil my ballot. > > Artistic penis is always a good option.
Be careful not to include testicles though, or the Lib Dems will be claiming it.
Regarding the thread, I think we can confidently look forward to this being the one and only set of elections contested by "The Brexit Party" because by the time of the next set the "The" will have been dropped.
> @Wulfrun_Phil said: > Regarding the thread, I think we can confidently look forward to this being the one and only set of elections contested by "The Brexit Party" because by the time of the next set the "The" will have been dropped.
Indeed. Who'd have thought in the days leading up to the 2014 elections that Ukip were doomed to being replaced by AIFE?
> @Tissue_Price said: > Here are some value bets with Ladbrokes for Thursday. As ever, DYOR: > > Labour UK Vote Share, 10-20%, 10/11 (nap) > > Vote Share Match bet, LD v Lab, Lib Dems, 10/11 > > Ann Widdecombe to be elected, 1/50 (ok, you won't get rich with this one)
Hmm... Labour are still leading Lib Dems in most polls. The trend is for the Lib Dems, but I'd want better than 10/11.
> @RobD said: > > @RobD said: > > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > > > > > https://www.twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1130804586606923776 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Is that the same state apparatus Nigel Farage runs to in tears when someone spills milk on him? > > > > > > Yes, what a baby, he deserves to be assaulted etc. Pathetic. > > > > I suggest that you familiarise yourself with the provisions of the Serious Crime Act 2007 regarding the offence of encouraging others to commit a criminal office. > > It was sarcasm m’lud.
Here are some value bets with Ladbrokes for Thursday. As ever, DYOR:
Labour UK Vote Share, 10-20%, 10/11 (nap)
Vote Share Match bet, LD v Lab, Lib Dems, 10/11
Ann Widdecombe to be elected, 1/50 (ok, you won't get rich with this one)
The first two of those are bets on YouGov being right and other pollsters being quite far out. Other pollsters have Labour in the 20% to 25% region and quite a bit ahead of the LibDems. Even YouGov only has the LibDems marginally ahead of Labour.
Now, I think it's likely that the LibDems will outperform and Labour underperform, but Survation's latest poll had the LibDems at only half the Labour figure, so who knows?
Here are some value bets with Ladbrokes for Thursday. As ever, DYOR:
Labour UK Vote Share, 10-20%, 10/11 (nap)
Vote Share Match bet, LD v Lab, Lib Dems, 10/11
Ann Widdecombe to be elected, 1/50 (ok, you won't get rich with this one)
The first two of those are bets on YouGov being right and other pollsters being quite far out. Other pollsters have Labour in the 20% to 25% region and quite a bit ahead of the LibDems. Even YouGov only has the LibDems marginally ahead of Labour.
Now, I think it's likely that the LibDems will outperform and Labour underperform, but Survation's latest poll had the LibDems at only half the Labour figure, so who knows?
I'm on Labour in London at 7-4 31-20, who would have thought that could have been available even a few months back ! Not one for the mortgage mind..
> @MarqueeMark said: > > @RobD said: > > > @RobD said: > > > > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1130804586606923776 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Is that the same state apparatus Nigel Farage runs to in tears when someone spills milk on him? > > > > > > > > > > Yes, what a baby, he deserves to be assaulted etc. Pathetic. > > > > > > > > I suggest that you familiarise yourself with the provisions of the Serious Crime Act 2007 regarding the offence of encouraging others to commit a criminal office. > > > > It was sarcasm m’lud. > > Not an accepted defence.
Indeed. Comments like Rob's make it impossible for a civilised democracy to exist, and are a direct result of the sad changes which have befallen our once green and pleasant land since the 1950s. Enoch was Right.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > Here are some value bets with Ladbrokes for Thursday. As ever, DYOR: > > Labour UK Vote Share, 10-20%, 10/11 (nap) > > Vote Share Match bet, LD v Lab, Lib Dems, 10/11 > > Ann Widdecombe to be elected, 1/50 (ok, you won't get rich with this one) > > The first two of those are bets on YouGov being right and other pollsters being quite far out. Other pollsters have Labour in the 20% to 25% region and quite a bit ahead of the LibDems. Even YouGov only has the LibDems marginally ahead of Labour. > > Now, I think it's likely that the LibDems will outperform and Labour underperform, but Survation's latest poll had the LibDems at only half the Labour figure, so who knows?
The trend line in the Labour polling is however quite stark. And bear in mind that Brown only achieved 16% in 2009, so there is no floor to Labour support at 20%.
> @Pulpstar said: > All the milkshake and electoral comission news re Brexit party is drowning out the other parties right now. Free publicity on stilts right at the point of the election !
The EC are unwisely playing to Farage's strength - his victim schtick. Got to be worth 100k votes....
Indeed. Comments like Rob's make it impossible for a civilised democracy to exist, and are a direct result of the sad changes which have befallen our once green and pleasant land since the 1950s. Enoch was Right.
"Like the Roman, I seem to see 'the River Tiber foaming with strawberry milkshake'."
> @MarqueeMark said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > All the milkshake and electoral comission news re Brexit party is drowning out the other parties right now. Free publicity on stilts right at the point of the election ! > > The EC are unwisely playing to Farage's strength - his victim schtick. Got to be worth 100k votes....
Why is TBP so worried about scrutiny?
The sensible thing to do when asked by an authority for information or a visit is to be pleasant and co-operative not behave like a cry-baby and assume that what is happening to you is motivated by malice.
Obviously, you ensure that the authority is acting within its powers but, assuming that it is, complaining about it doing what it is there to do, is defensive and curious, for a party so keen on speaking truth to power. Allegedly.
It does rather give the impression that transparency and openness are for others and not for Nigel's vehicle.
> @Gallowgate said: > Good afternoon, my fellow Andrastians. > > Just think, in two days I'll be agonising about how to spoil my ballot. > > Artistic penis is always a good option.
Wasn't "Artistic Penis" an Indie band in the early nineties? I hadn't realised they'd formed a political party!
> @Theuniondivvie said: > > @Gallowgate said: > > Good afternoon, my fellow Andrastians. > > > > Just think, in two days I'll be agonising about how to spoil my ballot. > > > > Artistic penis is always a good option. > > > I'd suggest using a pencil myself, but each to their own.
> @matt said: > er https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1130804794610868224 > > > > I’m looking forward to see the sympathy levels for ex-Jamie Oliver group employees. I’m guessing because they’ll be substantially non-British and because Stakhanovite metal bashing and mining labour are the only real sorts of work then there won’t be trade union calls to prop them up.
There's no shortage of mediocre restaurants and more are opening every day.
Comments
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > @tlg86 said:
> > > An Independence from Europe got 1.4% of vote from the top of the ballot in 2014.
> > >
> > > I thought TBP wanted to be close to Ukip as they thought it might get them a few votes from people who went in to the polling booth looking for UKIP.
> >
> > Most voters aren’t that stupid.
> >
> > I think we exaggerate such effects.
> >
>
> I tend to agree with Mike and it occurred to me when I saw the ballot - we saw the same effect in multi-ward local elections. Similarly I wonder if some of the Brexit votes will accidentally drift off to UKIP. I'm sure Casino is right that 95% of voters aren't influenced, but 5% would be important here.
The effect will be much stronger in multiseat wards. Many poeple think "I want to vote xx party", skim the ballot paper until they find "xx" party, and mark that one.
It is likely that there is a small top of ballot paper effect when eych party appears only once, but it would be hard to detect without doing a proper experiment.
What would be fair is if every individual ballot paper was printed with a random order of parties/candidates. I can't see the idea taking off tough.
> https://www.twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1130804586606923776
Alternative version: people who have a track record of being evasive about donations operating an unconventional structure and with a key fundraiser who has been convicted of money laundering offences being investigated.
> https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1130807559278006274
She tried that in MV3 (which had the added drama of counting down to 29th March deadline)
> One dish you rarely get in Italian restaurants is a really good zabaglione, which when made well is food for the Gods.
> My mother made a superb version once even making it for me when I was in hospital with TB and literally wasting away in front of her eyes. I will never forget the look on the nurse's face when she came into my room and saw my mother whisking the Marsala wine and egg and sugar. She was about to say something, caught my mother's eye and beat a hasty retreat.
The first time I ever had zabaglione was at the legendary Conti’s café in Lampeter. Old Mr Conti was considering adding it to the menu and gave me a sample to see what I thought. I’d grown up in a working-class SW London family that considered itself progressive with food as Mum wasn’t afraid to use garlic, but I truthfully told him it was the best thing I’d ever tasted.
> https://www.twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1130804586606923776
>
>
>
> I am sure that the Brexit Party is absolutely delighted by this opportunity to portray itself as persecuted by the establishment. If they weren't, they'd be pointing out that it's perfectly normal for the Electoral Commission to check that proper procedures are in place for tracking donations.
Isn't it odd that no other party has been checked?
> > @justin124 said:
> > If Boris becomes Tory leader and a few Tory MPs resign the Whip to sit on the Opposition benches, the Government will lose its majority - even with DUP support - if Tory strength drops below 310 MPs. Difficult to see CUK propping him up so a VNOC could well pass.
>
> ----
>
> I do think Boris is much more likely to go for an election than May.
>
> May's confidence is a quivering, gelatinous mush on the floor.
>
> Boris is more of a braggart. He'll believe he can take on and beat Corbyn. And maybe he can ..... who knows?
>
> An election is needed to resolve the mess. The parties must have clear proposals, and MPs unwilling to sign up to their party's manifesto commitment need to find a new party.
As I believe Alastair Meeks has suggested, if the Tories drop below - say - 308 as a result of defections or resignations of the Whip, it is not clear that Boris would become PM despite being the new Tory leader.
> Interesting Long Read in The Guardian today about how TBP have copied the Italian Five Star Movement model of direct internet democracy.
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/21/brexit-party-nigel-farage-italy-digital-populists-five-star-movement
>
> Yes, that's a very interesting article indeed - a must-read.
>
> It is. Very interesting. Italy was the testbed for a new type of politics at the start of the 20th century and seems to be doing the same in the 21st.
>
> I loved this phrase "What users/members/customers are given is basically a window-dressing of participation.”
>
> It is old wine in new digital bottles though. A mass movement built around a charismatic individual claiming to speak for the dispossessed and railing against conspiracies, elites and enemies.
>
> Where have we seen this before?
>
> I have a theory that whenever you get a big dislocation caused by a major change in media, it creates an opportunity for populists because the population won't have developed a defence of scepticism about the messages received via the new media. Examples would include the French Revolution (widely-available printed pamphlets), Mussolini and Hitler using radio to speak direct to voters, Berlusconi taking control of the TV medium, and the internet enabling the populists of today, such as Farage, Corbyn, Trump, and the Five Star movement, peddling their simplistic tosh. Once people get used to the new medium, the direct effect is less and messages received via it are put more into context.
>
> I think that is an extraordinarily perceptive observation.
it goes back even further, right back to the printing press
> Wasn't your grandmothers book - "Mrs Sofia O'Flattery's Italian Colcannon Recipes" a bestseller in County Mayo
A cook book from that part of Ireland should be called "Do you want Mayo with that?"
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @Freggles said:
> > > The key question is whether TBP have measures in place to check whether the same individual is making multiple donations in order to evade the £500 limit. Collecting name and PayPal email address isn't foolproof but it's probably what you can reasonably expect - if they're not doing that they should expect trouble.
> >
> > I wonder how they will view the People's Vote instructions asking donors to pay £499 specifically to avoid having to declare the donation sources. Hopefully they will be investigating that little scam as well.
>
> Agreed. Then we'll go after the bastards who drive at 69mph on the mnotorway, or take a 22kg suitcase when they have a 23kg luggage allowance. The sight of them getting away with it makes my blood boil.
And once again Ishmael the Ignorant completely misses the point.
> Interesting Long Read in The Guardian today about how TBP have copied the Italian Five Star Movement model of direct internet democracy.
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/21/brexit-party-nigel-farage-italy-digital-populists-five-star-movement
>
> Yes, that's a very interesting article indeed - a must-read.
>
> It is. Very interesting. Italy was the testbed for a new type of politics at the start of the 20th century and seems to be doing the same in the 21st.
>
> I loved this phrase "What users/members/customers are given is basically a window-dressing of participation.”
>
> It is old wine in new digital bottles though. A mass movement built around a charismatic individual claiming to speak for the dispossessed and railing against conspiracies, elites and enemies.
>
> Where have we seen this before?
>
> I have a theory that whenever you get a big dislocation caused by a major change in media, it creates an opportunity for populists because the population won't have developed a defence of scepticism about the messages received via the new media. Examples would include the French Revolution (widely-available printed pamphlets), Mussolini and Hitler using radio to speak direct to voters, Berlusconi taking control of the TV medium, and the internet enabling the populists of today, such as Farage, Corbyn, Trump, and the Five Star movement, peddling their simplistic tosh. Once people get used to the new medium, the direct effect is less and messages received via it are put more into context.
>
> I think that is an extraordinarily perceptive observation.
+1 for Richard's theory.
> > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > https://www.twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1130804586606923776
> >
> >
> >
> > I am sure that the Brexit Party is absolutely delighted by this opportunity to portray itself as persecuted by the establishment. If they weren't, they'd be pointing out that it's perfectly normal for the Electoral Commission to check that proper procedures are in place for tracking donations.
>
> Isn't it odd that no other party has been checked?
Obviously nothing found yet...
First rule of audits is give them something minor to pick up on. They then can go away able to show they have looked.
https://www.arsenal.com/news/henrikh-mkhitaryan-miss-europa-league-final
UEFA really are beyond contempt.
[Farage] said his party last week went to the Electoral Commission to show them the checks and methods used and got “a clean bill of health”.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/20/electoral-commission-visit-brexit-party-offices-funding-gordon-brown-paypal
> > @edmundintokyo said:
> >
> > CUK still look like they'd go down in flames if there was an election, so presumably they'd rather not have one. If they offered him a deal maybe he'd take it - it's not like he actually believes in anything, and he's not going to want to actually do whatever no-dealish pyromania he ran on.
>
> --
>
> True. And indeed, it is more general than CHUK.
>
> Most MPs worry more about whether they'll make it back, if there is an election.
>
> A lot of Tory and Labour MPs won't be feeling too chipper about an election in the current febrile atmosphere.
>
Are you seriously suggesting that Umana & Co will support Boris in a VoNC, so that the latter can implement a Hard Brexit?
If there is any one thing that CHUK stands for, it is preventing Brexit.
> > @Recidivist said:
> > Interesting Long Read in The Guardian today about how TBP have copied the Italian Five Star Movement model of direct internet democracy.
> >
> > https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/21/brexit-party-nigel-farage-italy-digital-populists-five-star-movement
> >
> > Yes, that's a very interesting article indeed - a must-read.
> >
> > It is. Very interesting. Italy was the testbed for a new type of politics at the start of the 20th century and seems to be doing the same in the 21st.
> >
> > I loved this phrase "What users/members/customers are given is basically a window-dressing of participation.”
> >
> > It is old wine in new digital bottles though. A mass movement built around a charismatic individual claiming to speak for the dispossessed and railing against conspiracies, elites and enemies.
> >
> > Where have we seen this before?
> >
> > I have a theory that whenever you get a big dislocation caused by a major change in media, it creates an opportunity for populists because the population won't have developed a defence of scepticism about the messages received via the new media. Examples would include the French Revolution (widely-available printed pamphlets), Mussolini and Hitler using radio to speak direct to voters, Berlusconi taking control of the TV medium, and the internet enabling the populists of today, such as Farage, Corbyn, Trump, and the Five Star movement, peddling their simplistic tosh. Once people get used to the new medium, the direct effect is less and messages received via it are put more into context.
> >
> > I think that is an extraordinarily perceptive observation.
>
> +1 for Richard's theory.
One thing to note is that every one of these new media propagates faster than the one before. This in turn requires quicker defences against the propagation of falsehoods - but right now the owners of those media refuse to take action.
> er https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1130804794610868224
>
>
>
> I’m looking forward to see the sympathy levels for ex-Jamie Oliver group employees. I’m guessing because they’ll be substantially non-British and because Stakhanovite metal bashing and mining labour are the only real sorts of work then there won’t be trade union calls to prop them up.
I am reminded of a couple of years ago during the last Steel industry crisis when it looked like 4000 or so workers might lose their jobs. There were some ironic comparisons made with the UK oil industry which had at that point lost 120,000 jobs in just under 2 years with scarcely a comment from either government or the media.
> Isn't it odd that no other party has been checked?
>
> All the other main parties have been checked over the years. Only the Brexit Party is new (well, apart from Change UK, but presumably they are regarded as not worth bothering with).
It will be interesting to see the fundraising totals for the current quarter when they are available.
I'd hazard a guess that other parties might not have been checked as their figures weren't a departure from trend (except perhaps on the downside). If a new party emerges and sees large amounts of donations, the Electoral Commission wouldn't be doing its job if it weren't to conduct checks.
Update;
https://www.twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1130812756469473280
In multi-member wards, it is very clear. Some people say, "I'll vote for my friend Fred as I know him from the pub... plus one of the two Labour candidates, who I don't know personally". In the absence of a preference between the two Labour candidates, they just mark the first one they come to. Others erroneously believe they only get one vote, and again go to the first person from their chosen party.
In the infamous Literal Democrat case years ago (before logos), the Lib Dem candidate was Adrian Sanders, well below the spoiler, Richard Huggett on the ballot. Given it was a Euro election and candidates' names were not well known, folk went for the first name under whom they thought they saw the words "Liberal Democrat" and for a sizable number that was Huggett.
None of that applies here. There's no vote splitting, you just get one vote, and we now have well known logos on ballots.
I suspect any impact will be negligible. I do think there is some potential for UKIP to hold up marginally better than expected as their logo is probably better known than the Brexit Party simply due to the party's long history. Having said that, the Brexit Party logo is clever, with the clear arrow to the box where they want the X placed - smart branding by them.
> > @YBarddCwsc said:
> > > @edmundintokyo said:
> > >
> > > CUK still look like they'd go down in flames if there was an election, so presumably they'd rather not have one. If they offered him a deal maybe he'd take it - it's not like he actually believes in anything, and he's not going to want to actually do whatever no-dealish pyromania he ran on.
> >
> > --
> >
> > True. And indeed, it is more general than CHUK.
> >
> > Most MPs worry more about whether they'll make it back, if there is an election.
> >
> > A lot of Tory and Labour MPs won't be feeling too chipper about an election in the current febrile atmosphere.
> >
>
> Are you seriously suggesting that Umana & Co will support Boris in a VoNC, so that the latter can implement a Hard Brexit?
>
> If there is any one thing that CHUK stands for, it is preventing Brexit.
---
I guess the words "offered him a deal" escaped your attention in the original posting.
> > @Nigelb said:
> > > @Recidivist said:
> > > Interesting Long Read in The Guardian today about how TBP have copied the Italian Five Star Movement model of direct internet democracy.
> > >
> > > https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/21/brexit-party-nigel-farage-italy-digital-populists-five-star-movement
> > >
> > > Yes, that's a very interesting article indeed - a must-read.
> > >
> > > It is. Very interesting. Italy was the testbed for a new type of politics at the start of the 20th century and seems to be doing the same in the 21st.
> > >
> > > I loved this phrase "What users/members/customers are given is basically a window-dressing of participation.”
> > >
> > > It is old wine in new digital bottles though. A mass movement built around a charismatic individual claiming to speak for the dispossessed and railing against conspiracies, elites and enemies.
> > >
> > > Where have we seen this before?
> > >
> > > I have a theory that whenever you get a big dislocation caused by a major change in media, it creates an opportunity for populists because the population won't have developed a defence of scepticism about the messages received via the new media. Examples would include the French Revolution (widely-available printed pamphlets), Mussolini and Hitler using radio to speak direct to voters, Berlusconi taking control of the TV medium, and the internet enabling the populists of today, such as Farage, Corbyn, Trump, and the Five Star movement, peddling their simplistic tosh. Once people get used to the new medium, the direct effect is less and messages received via it are put more into context.
> > >
> > > I think that is an extraordinarily perceptive observation.
> >
> > +1 for Richard's theory.
>
> One thing to note is that every one of these new media propagates faster than the one before. This in turn requires quicker defences against the propagation of falsehoods - but right now the owners of those media refuse to take action.
It's rather harder this time around. Previously when only 1-5 things was broadcast at any one time it was easy to control things.
Nowadays with 1 million things at one time and things being rapidly and continually moved to bypass filters (see the New Zealand Mosque attack live streams) it's not as easy as it used to be.
That isn't to say that firms aren't doing as much as they could do to keep things sane but its a lot harder than it previously was.
> Off topic, but no Mkhi for Arsenal in Baku:
>
> https://www.arsenal.com/news/henrikh-mkhitaryan-miss-europa-league-final
>
> UEFA really are beyond contempt.
Putting aside the dubious merit of holding it in Baku at all, I have seen suggestions that Mkhitaryan's issue isn't so much with his personal security in Azerbaijan for the final (which would presumably be pretty tight), but with his own future security back in his native Armenia if he were to play in Azerbaijan. Which puts a slightly different gloss on it.
> The electoral commission visited TBP last week to check their procedures.
>
>
> I don't think that's right, at least not according to that bastion of truth the Guardian:
>
> [Farage] said his party last week went to the Electoral Commission to show them the checks and methods used and got “a clean bill of health”.
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/20/electoral-commission-visit-brexit-party-offices-funding-gordon-brown-paypal
>
> Fair enough, but you have to wonder why they didn’t do their ‘routine visit’ before the final week of the election.
>
> Update;
>
> https://www.twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1130812756469473280
>
>
>
> Sounds like they are trying to come up with an excuse for the raid prompted by Brown’s speech. As if they would plan a routine check two days before an election.
With Leavers record in funding matters it's good that they are looking early.
> > @tlg86 said:
> > Off topic, but no Mkhi for Arsenal in Baku:
> >
> > https://www.arsenal.com/news/henrikh-mkhitaryan-miss-europa-league-final
> >
> > UEFA really are beyond contempt.
>
> Putting aside the dubious merit of holding it in Baku at all, I have seen suggestions that Mkhitaryan's issue isn't so much with his personal security in Azerbaijan for the final (which would presumably be pretty tight), but with his own future security back in his native Armenia if he were to play in Azerbaijan. Which puts a slightly different gloss on it.
It only needs one person to get on the pitch, though. Given that UEFA panders to the hatred between the two nations by keeping them apart in draws, neither should be considered suitable locations for European finals.
Labour UK Vote Share, 10-20%, 10/11 (nap)
Vote Share Match bet, LD v Lab, Lib Dems, 10/11
Ann Widdecombe to be elected, 1/50 (ok, you won't get rich with this one)
> https://www.twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1130804586606923776
Is that the same state apparatus Nigel Farage runs to in tears when someone spills milk on him?
Just think, in two days I'll be agonising about how to spoil my ballot.
> It only needs one person to get on the pitch, though. Given that UEFA panders to the hatred between the two nations by keeping them apart in draws, neither should be considered suitable locations for European finals.
>
> They do the same with for Russia (with Ukraine) and Spain (with Gibraltar).
Equally as disgraceful and should stop all four from being eligible for finals. Okay, the Spain-Gib one is unlikely to be problematic, but it's not on.
EDIT: I'm really hoping that Armenia end up playing Azerbaijan in the play-offs for the Euros.
> > @brokenwheel said:
>
> > https://www.twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1130804586606923776
>
>
>
>
>
> Is that the same state apparatus Nigel Farage runs to in tears when someone spills milk on him?
>
> Yes, what a baby, he deserves to be assaulted etc. Pathetic.
I suggest that you familiarise yourself with the provisions of the Serious Crime Act 2007 regarding the offence of encouraging others to commit a criminal office.
> > @brokenwheel said:
>
> > https://www.twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1130804586606923776
>
>
>
>
>
> Is that the same state apparatus Nigel Farage runs to in tears when someone spills milk on him?
>
> Yes, what a baby, he deserves to be assaulted etc. Pathetic.
Does anyone really take this kind of faux outrage seriously?
Surely 90% of the population think it makes Farage look even more ludicrous than usual..
However, two points; I very much doubt a quirk of psychology will save CUK from a fate worse than oblivion. Secondly, the overall impact on the remainer cause may actually be negative. Presumably any increase in votes for CUK is most likely to come from LDs or green. Splitting the vote in this way under D'Hondt probably won't produce more CUK seats but will harm the LDs.
> Good afternoon, my fellow Andrastians.
>
> Just think, in two days I'll be agonising about how to spoil my ballot.
>
> Artistic penis is always a good option.
I'd suggest using a pencil myself, but each to their own.
> Good afternoon, my fellow Andrastians.
>
> Just think, in two days I'll be agonising about how to spoil my ballot.
>
> Artistic penis is always a good option.
Didn't one candidate successfully argue that such a drawing next to his name was an indication that the voter supported him?
> Good afternoon, my fellow Andrastians.
>
> Just think, in two days I'll be agonising about how to spoil my ballot.
>
> Artistic penis is always a good option.
Be careful not to include testicles though, or the Lib Dems will be claiming it.
> Regarding the thread, I think we can confidently look forward to this being the one and only set of elections contested by "The Brexit Party" because by the time of the next set the "The" will have been dropped.
Indeed. Who'd have thought in the days leading up to the 2014 elections that Ukip were doomed to being replaced by AIFE?
> Here are some value bets with Ladbrokes for Thursday. As ever, DYOR:
>
> Labour UK Vote Share, 10-20%, 10/11 (nap)
>
> Vote Share Match bet, LD v Lab, Lib Dems, 10/11
>
> Ann Widdecombe to be elected, 1/50 (ok, you won't get rich with this one)
Hmm... Labour are still leading Lib Dems in most polls. The trend is for the Lib Dems, but I'd want better than 10/11.
> > @RobD said:
>
> > > @brokenwheel said:
>
> >
>
> > > https://www.twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1130804586606923776
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Is that the same state apparatus Nigel Farage runs to in tears when someone spills milk on him?
>
> >
>
> > Yes, what a baby, he deserves to be assaulted etc. Pathetic.
>
>
>
> I suggest that you familiarise yourself with the provisions of the Serious Crime Act 2007 regarding the offence of encouraging others to commit a criminal office.
>
> It was sarcasm m’lud.
Not an accepted defence.
Now, I think it's likely that the LibDems will outperform and Labour underperform, but Survation's latest poll had the LibDems at only half the Labour figure, so who knows?
https://twitter.com/electoralmemes/status/1130800719987204097
Not one for the mortgage mind..
> > @RobD said:
> > > @RobD said:
> >
> > > > @brokenwheel said:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > https://www.twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1130804586606923776
> >
> >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Is that the same state apparatus Nigel Farage runs to in tears when someone spills milk on him?
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Yes, what a baby, he deserves to be assaulted etc. Pathetic.
> >
> >
> >
> > I suggest that you familiarise yourself with the provisions of the Serious Crime Act 2007 regarding the offence of encouraging others to commit a criminal office.
> >
> > It was sarcasm m’lud.
>
> Not an accepted defence.
Indeed. Comments like Rob's make it impossible for a civilised democracy to exist, and are a direct result of the sad changes which have befallen our once green and pleasant land since the 1950s. Enoch was Right.
> Here are some value bets with Ladbrokes for Thursday. As ever, DYOR:
>
> Labour UK Vote Share, 10-20%, 10/11 (nap)
>
> Vote Share Match bet, LD v Lab, Lib Dems, 10/11
>
> Ann Widdecombe to be elected, 1/50 (ok, you won't get rich with this one)
>
> The first two of those are bets on YouGov being right and other pollsters being quite far out. Other pollsters have Labour in the 20% to 25% region and quite a bit ahead of the LibDems. Even YouGov only has the LibDems marginally ahead of Labour.
>
> Now, I think it's likely that the LibDems will outperform and Labour underperform, but Survation's latest poll had the LibDems at only half the Labour figure, so who knows?
The trend line in the Labour polling is however quite stark. And bear in mind that Brown only achieved 16% in 2009, so there is no floor to Labour support at 20%.
> All the milkshake and electoral comission news re Brexit party is drowning out the other parties right now. Free publicity on stilts right at the point of the election !
The EC are unwisely playing to Farage's strength - his victim schtick. Got to be worth 100k votes....
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > All the milkshake and electoral comission news re Brexit party is drowning out the other parties right now. Free publicity on stilts right at the point of the election !
>
> The EC are unwisely playing to Farage's strength - his victim schtick. Got to be worth 100k votes....
Why is TBP so worried about scrutiny?
The sensible thing to do when asked by an authority for information or a visit is to be pleasant and co-operative not behave like a cry-baby and assume that what is happening to you is motivated by malice.
Obviously, you ensure that the authority is acting within its powers but, assuming that it is, complaining about it doing what it is there to do, is defensive and curious, for a party so keen on speaking truth to power. Allegedly.
It does rather give the impression that transparency and openness are for others and not for Nigel's vehicle.
> Good afternoon, my fellow Andrastians.
>
> Just think, in two days I'll be agonising about how to spoil my ballot.
>
> Artistic penis is always a good option.
Wasn't "Artistic Penis" an Indie band in the early nineties? I hadn't realised they'd formed a political party!
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > Good afternoon, my fellow Andrastians.
> >
> > Just think, in two days I'll be agonising about how to spoil my ballot.
> >
> > Artistic penis is always a good option.
>
>
> I'd suggest using a pencil myself, but each to their own.
Winner
> er https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1130804794610868224
>
>
>
> I’m looking forward to see the sympathy levels for ex-Jamie Oliver group employees. I’m guessing because they’ll be substantially non-British and because Stakhanovite metal bashing and mining labour are the only real sorts of work then there won’t be trade union calls to prop them up.
There's no shortage of mediocre restaurants and more are opening every day.
That doesn't apply to steelworks.