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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There could be hope for CHUK yet because of being top of the ballot
Above is a photograph of my ballot paper in Eastern region for Thursday’s election and looking at it there are some issues that might help or hinder the various parties.
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For those betting on the EU elections - 1 comment from the weekend.
Up North postal vote returns are already way, way higher than for the local elections.
This is usually because some people only vote once, when they could have voted two or three times, or because they actively wanted to split their vote between parties (most often with a vote to an independent).
Neither of these applies here, but there may be a very small effect given that certain parties are fishing in the same vote pool. It has to help Change a little bit: perhaps it will get them to 3%? And, yes, The Brexit Party screwed up...
Clearly we should randomise ballot order but given my surname I'll let someone else bring that forward.
> Also FPT
>
> For those betting on the EU elections - 1 comment from the weekend.
>
> Up North postal vote returns are already way, way higher than for the local elections.
>
That's heartening. People engaging with elections is a good thing, and it's sad well under 50% of people who could vote will do so this time.
On topic: I wonder if the 3/1 Ladbrokes are offering on Chuk to get 5-10% is value given that they aren't polling much below - but I fear their polling continues to decline and even 3/1 might be fair.
@Quincel that cant be a bad bet IMO
> Also FPT
>
> For those betting on the EU elections - 1 comment from the weekend.
>
> Up North postal vote returns are already way, way higher than for the local elections.
>
> Northern remainer surge.
I believe oldies are more likely to have postal votes.
And that working class turnout is usually lower.
So an increased number of postal votes might suggest increased voting by working class oldies.
> Also FPT
>
> For those betting on the EU elections - 1 comment from the weekend.
>
> Up North postal vote returns are already way, way higher than for the local elections.
>
> Northern remainer surge.
Don't older voters go postal, & tend to be Leave? Isn't it as likely a Remainer & Leaver surge?
On topic, would anyone here put a single penny on backing CHUK because they're top of the ballot paper?
18.3 -> 20.4% Tories
3.8 -> 4.1% Lib Dems
But
4.9 -> 3.5% UKIP !
> <i class="Italic">What was striking that in just about all cases the CON/LAB/LD/GRN candidate whose name appeared first secured more votes than the ones that appeared second.</i>
>
> This is usually because some people only vote once, when they could have voted two or three times, or because they actively wanted to split their vote between parties (most often with a vote to an independent).
>
> Neither of these applies here, but there may be a very small effect given that certain parties are fishing in the same vote pool. It has to help Change a little bit: perhaps it will get them to 3%? And, yes, The Brexit Party screwed up...
>
> Clearly we should randomise ballot order but given my surname I'll let someone else bring that forward.
When I lived in Taiwan, the Parties drew lots for their number on the ballot paper. It was a big event, live in prime time. Followed by analysis of the potential effects.
The drawing of an auspicious or non-auspicious number was considered an important factor (everyone tried to avoid 4, as it sounds like death in Mandarin).
Needless to say, losing candidates would cite this as a top excuse later on...
> We really ought to randomise the order, it is not hard now that typesetting is by computer, not hot-metal.
What we should do, and can easily do, is provide differently randomised ballot papers for each voter, not just provide one fixed random order per constituency.
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > Also FPT
> >
> > For those betting on the EU elections - 1 comment from the weekend.
> >
> > Up North postal vote returns are already way, way higher than for the local elections.
> >
> > Northern remainer surge.
>
>
> Don't older voters go postal, & tend to be Leave? Isn't it as likely a Remainer & Leaver surge?
>
> On topic, would anyone here put a single penny on backing CHUK because they're top of the ballot paper?
>
>
I can't read it. It could be leave voters, it could be remainers, equally it could be a lot of leaver voters who have spoilt their ballot papers.
And I suspect the latter may be the case fairly often, It wouldn't surprise me if Nigel lost a lot of votes to spoilt papers.
Their most egregious error IMO is that their launch and current strategy falls between the stools of the flashy, populist demands of a 24-hr rolling news environment (something Nige wins easily) and the approach required for a long term sustainable new force in politics.
It's not that they haven't mastered politics, it's that they haven't mastered channel delivery.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/17/change-uk-joan-ryan-look-at-your-hands
I think ChUK passed their noon when that memo about destroying the Lib Dems was leaked. Who did it? Either it was a minion who wished to embarrass ChUK, which seems unlikely, or it came from the leadership themselves, who deliberately set out to make their dastardly plans public. If the latter then that was surely an act of self-destructive hubris.
> > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > We really ought to randomise the order, it is not hard now that typesetting is by computer, not hot-metal.
>
> What we should do, and can easily do, is provide differently randomised ballot papers for each voter, not just provide one fixed random order per constituency.
It would make counting far harder though....
It makes them look like a bunch of local independents rather than a political party.
I thought TBP wanted to be close to Ukip as they thought it might get them a few votes from people who went in to the polling booth looking for Ukip.
The lack of a logo may counteract any advantage. The eye is not drawn to them. It could be perceived as a continuation of the voting instructions rather than an option by the casual observer.
> We really ought to randomise the order, it is not hard now that typesetting is by computer, not hot-metal.
I'm purely guessing, but I wonder if the issue isn't the printing but the counting. As long as we count by hand (which I very much approve of) it will be much quicker for humans if they can put all the ballots with a cross at the top in one pile, all the ones with the next box crossed in another, etc.
>
> Their most egregious error IMO is that their launch and current strategy falls between the stools of the flashy, populist demands of a 24-hr rolling news environment (something Nige wins easily) and the approach required for a long term sustainable new force in politics.
>
> It's not that they haven't mastered politics, it's that they haven't mastered channel delivery.
What's their USP versus the Lib Dems?
> Are they top in every region?
> The lack of a logo may counteract any advantage. The eye is not drawn to them. It could be perceived as a continuation of the voting instructions rather than an option by the casual observer.
When I saw my ballot paper I suddenly realized that the lack of a logo is not necessarily a problem, when positioned at the top (I'm also in the Eastern region, BTW). It is the classic UX problem where everything is a sea of slightly-too-small icons so they all blend into one, while the whitespace stands out.
Did I actually vote for them though..?
And as far as we know none of the principals have lamped their other halfs at any point over a power lead.
Not exactly surprising but noted none the less.
> > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > We really ought to randomise the order, it is not hard now that typesetting is by computer, not hot-metal.
>
> I'm purely guessing, but I wonder if the issue isn't the printing but the counting. As long as we count by hand (which I very much approve of) it will be much quicker for humans if they can put all the ballots with a cross at the top in one pile, all the ones with the next box crossed in another, etc.
And with multiple votes, it's quite often the procedure to separate out the straight-ticket bloc votes, count them, and then line up the split ballots side-by-side, 25 at a time, to count those.
> Anecdotal as usual but almost all of my millennial, metropolitan, university educated, former Labour Party voting friends in the North East say they are voting Lib Dem.
>
> Not exactly surprising but noted none the less.
Given the voting system and the fact we only have 3 seats to share - I suspect their votes may be wasted (or worse) let Nigel in to the second seat. Only time will tell though
My vote was Labour rather than Lib Dem for exactly that reason..
If so, it may be the one thing they did competently.
> Are they top in every region?
> The lack of a logo may counteract any advantage. The eye is not drawn to them. It could be perceived as a continuation of the voting instructions rather than an option by the casual observer.
They are top in most but not all. I'm in the NW and they were top, but in London there's an 'Animal Welfare Party' which is higher.
The Independent Group was actually a decent name but it clearly stored up this problem.
https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1130752790475755520
> > @Quincel said:
> > > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > > We really ought to randomise the order, it is not hard now that typesetting is by computer, not hot-metal.
> >
> > I'm purely guessing, but I wonder if the issue isn't the printing but the counting. As long as we count by hand (which I very much approve of) it will be much quicker for humans if they can put all the ballots with a cross at the top in one pile, all the ones with the next box crossed in another, etc.
>
> And with multiple votes, it's quite often the procedure to separate out the straight-ticket bloc votes, count them, and then line up the split ballots side-by-side, 25 at a time, to count those.
Good point. I'd not thought of it complicating the count.
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > Anecdotal as usual but almost all of my millennial, metropolitan, university educated, former Labour Party voting friends in the North East say they are voting Lib Dem.
> >
> > Not exactly surprising but noted none the less.
>
> Given the voting system and the fact we only have 3 seats to share - I suspect their votes may be wasted (or worse) let Nigel in to the second seat. Only time will tell though
>
> My vote was Labour rather than Lib Dem for exactly that reason..
>
On which note. Labour has finally produced its equivalent of the dodgy bar chart. "It's a two horse race in the North East."
Pity it has taken till 2 days before the vote to wake up to this simple and obvious message.
Left it too late, of course, to run it nationally, but it could have been effective if run at the start, when it was the case. Some people were urging it at the time.
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > Anecdotal as usual but almost all of my millennial, metropolitan, university educated, former Labour Party voting friends in the North East say they are voting Lib Dem.
> >
> > Not exactly surprising but noted none the less.
>
> Given the voting system and the fact we only have 3 seats to share - I suspect their votes may be wasted (or worse) let Nigel in to the second seat. Only time will tell though
>
> My vote was Labour rather than Lib Dem for exactly that reason..
>
Is the number of seats particularly important? The vote shares will probably have much more of an impact.
> > @eek said:
> > > @Gallowgate said:
> > > Anecdotal as usual but almost all of my millennial, metropolitan, university educated, former Labour Party voting friends in the North East say they are voting Lib Dem.
> > >
> > > Not exactly surprising but noted none the less.
> >
> > Given the voting system and the fact we only have 3 seats to share - I suspect their votes may be wasted (or worse) let Nigel in to the second seat. Only time will tell though
> >
> > My vote was Labour rather than Lib Dem for exactly that reason..
> >
>
> Is the number of seats particularly important? The vote shares will probably have much more of an impact.
Possibly it will, possibly it won't be. No-one knows how things will be reported on Monday but personally the fewer seats Nigel wins the better.
> ChUK have become the Chesney Hawkes of British politics: becoming figures of ridicule almost overnight despite initially bursting on the scene to some acclaim.
Will any of them save their seat....to crow "I am the One and Only"?
My parents have them, inherited, but the papers are heading for the recycling bin in a week or so if nobody wants them. No actual price tag but the weight involved means they have to be collected in person (West Yorkshire) or the postage, which will be a fair bit, must be covered.
Anyway, if you're interested, give me a bell.
> Has Farage been milkshaked yet today?
There's quite a lot of stuff on line showing people who have had milkshakes thrown in their faces. At least I think that's what has happened...
> Galloway is clearly impressed by Farage's courage and indefatigability.
>
> https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1130752790475755520
Courageously and indefatigably staying on the bus.
> Brexit Party would also have had the advantage of being W-A-Y above UKIP. When they are together on the ballot paper, some will get confused and think UKIP is still Farage's lot.....
Not in the South East.
It must take olympic level mental gymnastics to convince yourself otherwise.
> > @Dura_Ace said:
> > Has Farage been milkshaked yet today?
>
> There's quite a lot of stuff on line showing people who have had milkshakes thrown in their faces. At least I think that's what has happened...
If it's the videos I'm thinking of, and it looks like a strawberry milkshake, then something's severely wrong .... ;(
> And to continue my meltdown, it’s absolutely ridiculous for Labour cultists to claim people should be voting for other issues in an election to a parliament we might not even be a member of in a few months. This election is about nothing else other than our European Union membership. It can’t be about anything else.
>
> It must take olympic level mental gymnastics to convince yourself otherwise.
looking at the Remain arguments they seem to be mostly about not liking Farage
> And to continue my meltdown, it’s absolutely ridiculous for Labour cultists to claim people should be voting for other issues in an election to a parliament we might not even be a member of in a few months. This election is about nothing else other than our European Union membership. It can’t be about anything else.
>
> It must take olympic level mental gymnastics to convince yourself otherwise.
What if you don't like any of the parties approach to Brexit? Sure if you are for no deal or revoke the decisions are easy, but if you either dont see Brexit as that important, or you are for a Brexit compromise, how do you vote?
Or are our views just discarded so the extremists can have their proxy referendum? A proxy referendum so ill defined that both sides will excitedly claim they won.
> A thought. Was this the driver of the name change? That they realised they weren't getting the traction they hoped for, so decided they needed to be top of the ballot?
>
> If so, it may be the one thing they did competently.
>
> I believe they needed to change their name because the Electoral Commission told them there was no way they could use "Independent" in a party name, as "Independent" is a specific (protected?) concept in elections.
>
> The Independent Group was actually a decent name but it clearly stored up this problem.
Yes of course. Silly me, I'd forgotten that. At least they had the good sense to choose something which got them at the top though. Although it was probably purely accidental given past form.
Just noticed something about the vote share markets on most bookies - they don't specify if they are UK or GB totals. Ladbrokes says UK, and I guess that is likely to be the case for everyone who doesn't say - but remember all polls are GB only. For parties polling 20-30% the GB -> UK shift lowers their vote share by about 1%. Given Lab and LDs have both had some polls near the 15/20% thresholds it could make the difference.
> @noneoftheabove I think that’s very much a reasonable reason for voting Labour or Conservative.
Both are prioritising party politics far too much ahead of the national interest to deserve my vote. I did consider Conservative but dont know how that would be interpreted and my biggest preference would be to vote anti ERG so am going to vote Green (probably).
> > @Gallowgate said:
>
> > And to continue my meltdown, it’s absolutely ridiculous for Labour cultists to claim people should be voting for other issues in an election to a parliament we might not even be a member of in a few months. This election is about nothing else other than our European Union membership. It can’t be about anything else.
>
> >
>
> > It must take olympic level mental gymnastics to convince yourself otherwise.
>
>
>
> What if you don't like any of the parties approach to Brexit? Sure if you are for no deal or revoke the decisions are easy, but if you either dont see Brexit as that important, or you are for a Brexit compromise, how do you vote?
>
>
>
> Or are our views just discarded so the extremists can have their proxy referendum? A proxy referendum so ill defined that both sides will excitedly claim they won.
>
> If you aren't that bothered about Brexit or the EU, why not just not vote and take some time off from politics at the EU Elections?
I feel it is a duty to vote.
https://twitter.com/gmb/status/1130737779665772544?s=21
Oldking cole said -
' Could say Heath vs Wilson, too. Heath was more 'charismatic' but Wilson won more elections.'
Attlee won twice in terms of seats - 1945 & 1950. Wilson was seen as far more charismatic than Heath..
> Not any more by the look of it
Jess could get the reward herself. It could set a trend for politicians to tip milkshake over themselves.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > Not any more by the look of it
>
> Jess could get the reward herself. It could set a trend for politicians to tip milkshake over themselves.
The milkshake challenge for charidee, surefire winner & costs a whiny snowflake money.
> https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1130775368376475648
old news and rather desperate stuff
Boy, that Overton window is just *flying* rightwards at the moment.
> > @isam said:
> > > @Gallowgate said:
> >
> > > And to continue my meltdown, it’s absolutely ridiculous for Labour cultists to claim people should be voting for other issues in an election to a parliament we might not even be a member of in a few months. This election is about nothing else other than our European Union membership. It can’t be about anything else.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > It must take olympic level mental gymnastics to convince yourself otherwise.
> >
> >
> >
> > What if you don't like any of the parties approach to Brexit? Sure if you are for no deal or revoke the decisions are easy, but if you either dont see Brexit as that important, or you are for a Brexit compromise, how do you vote?
> >
> >
> >
> > Or are our views just discarded so the extremists can have their proxy referendum? A proxy referendum so ill defined that both sides will excitedly claim they won.
> >
> > If you aren't that bothered about Brexit or the EU, why not just not vote and take some time off from politics at the EU Elections?
>
> I feel it is a duty to vote.
I've always thought that. But it doesn't extend to voting for a Parliament our Parliamentarians have very largely been elected on manifestoes pledging we'd leave.
It's like I'm being offered an extensive range of Betamax tapes.
> > @Scott_P said:
>
> > Not any more by the look of it
>
>
>
> Jess could get the reward herself. It could set a trend for politicians to tip milkshake over themselves.
>
> I had the idea that Brexiteers should all do a version of the ice bucket challenge but with milk shake! I wish Farage had styled it out better and just shrugged it off, but really politicians of all stripes should unite and say this is bad.
If they did would that mean if Remainer parties 'win' the Euros, they can say it was achieved without a single milkshake being thrown?
> Hmm he doesn’t quite say that... he thinks it’s ok to happen to Farage but not to Soubry
>
> https://twitter.com/gmb/status/1130737779665772544
>
>
>
> It depends which woman is on the receiving end. Leadsome = fucking hilarious. Ruby out of Eastenders, less so.
You can't even spell her name. Leadsom would be no more hilarious than your mum in fairness.
> > @Dura_Ace said:
> > Hmm he doesn’t quite say that... he thinks it’s ok to happen to Farage but not to Soubry
> >
> > https://twitter.com/gmb/status/1130737779665772544
> >
> >
> >
> > It depends which woman is on the receiving end. Leadsome = fucking hilarious. Ruby out of Eastenders, less so.
>
> You can't even spell her name. Leadsom would be no more hilarious than your mum in fairness.
'your mum'
It's definitely the quality of the debate that keeps me here.
> > @Brom said:
> > > @Dura_Ace said:
> > > Hmm he doesn’t quite say that... he thinks it’s ok to happen to Farage but not to Soubry
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/gmb/status/1130737779665772544
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > It depends which woman is on the receiving end. Leadsome = fucking hilarious. Ruby out of Eastenders, less so.
> >
> > You can't even spell her name. Leadsom would be no more hilarious than your mum in fairness.
>
>
> 'your mum'
>
> It's definitely the quality of the debate that keeps me here.
I think you misread my point, but well done for supporting people who get excited about assaulting politicians.
https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1130780600862937089?s=21
Almost as boringly predictable as my James Felton is unfunny line!
Ooh, nerve tweeked. You really must develop a thicker skin.
> Not any more by the look of it
>
> It’s bad when it happens to anyone. Can’t believe there are people on here who don’t universally condemn it
>
>
> It's assault when Nigel was milkshaked, and it was assault when Corbyn was attacked with an egg too. Unacceptable all round.
Agreed.
Without wishing to be humourless, common assault is a crime irrespective of whether some think it funny, or it doesn't seem violent enough for them.
> Nevermind British Steel - Jamie Oliver's chain about to be smelted.
The culmination of two years of financial peril.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > Not any more by the look of it
>
> >
> > It’s bad when it happens to anyone. Can’t believe there are people on here who don’t universally condemn it
> >
> >
> > It's assault when Nigel was milkshaked, and it was assault when Corbyn was attacked with an egg too. Unacceptable all round.
>
> Agreed.
> Without wishing to be humourless, common assault is a crime irrespective of whether some think it funny, or it doesn't seem violent enough for them.
Is it bad to think it is common assault, happy for anyone to do it to be prosecuted, think it should be condemned, but still find it (slightly) funny?
Not good is the answer regardless of their political persuasion.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1130775368376475648
>
> old news and rather desperate stuff
Nobody should breach the law.