politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters make it a 30% that Brexit won’t happen before 2022 or

I'm not changing my position. So somebody else is going to have to.

Glad we've got that sorted.

The european parliament will have changed by the end of the month.

Good morning, everyone.

I agree, Mr. Rentool, that right now Remain/May's deal are significantly likelier than leaving with no deal.

Whilst much has been written of the potential for economic turbulence in the latter instance, I think most politicians and journalists haven't considered the political harm that would be caused by staying in.

And, as I've said before various times, trying to come up with a fair set of options in a second referendum is actually pretty tricky. The two step approach (Remain/Leave and, if the latter wins, May's deal/no deal) may be the best/least bad way to go.

Well, Spurs!

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1126351663822966784

> @logical_song said:
> "There are two blocks of MPs Who are determined not to support that which is currently on the table – the ERG Brexit hardliners and those behind the People’s Vote campaign."
> There's also the DUP.

And Sinn Fein. Not a single one of their MPs has even bothered to vote.

> @Morris_Dancer said:
> Good morning, everyone.
>
> I agree, Mr. Rentool, that right now Remain/May's deal are significantly likelier than leaving with no deal.
>
> Whilst much has been written of the potential for economic turbulence in the latter instance, I think most politicians and journalists haven't considered the political harm that would be caused by staying in.
>
> And, as I've said before various times, trying to come up with a fair set of options in a second referendum is actually pretty tricky. The two step approach (Remain/Leave and, if the latter wins, May's deal/no deal) may be the best/least bad way to go.

No

Because that still doesn't find the Condorcet Winner.

> @edmundintokyo said:
> > @OldKingCole said:
> > Writing in the Guardian today Gina Miller says that
> > 'I am therefore attempting to even the playing field by today launching Remain United, a tactical voting and campaigning website to give voters advice on which remain-backing party they would be best off supporting in order to maximise the number of seats these parties capture between them in the forthcoming election.'
> >
> > Someone's going to be upset, but might just work. Last thing the country needs now is Farage crowing that 'he's won' again.
>
> Good idea in theory, but probably quite a tough problem to work out good recommendations. If your data turns out a little bit wrong it can easily backfire.

Indeed; not a lot of time left, either.
If you look at where I live, Mid/N Essex, in one constituency you'd back the Greens but across the line in Chelmsford, it'd be the LibDems.
Vince is (at last, did I hear someone say) making all the right noises.

Is there an EU election due soon? I can't even remember whether it is too early to panic about the non-arrival of a polling card.

> @Morris_Dancer said:
> And, as I've said before various times, trying to come up with a fair set of options in a second referendum is actually pretty tricky. The two step approach (Remain/Leave and, if the latter wins, May's deal/no deal) may be the best/least bad way to go.

You've got that backwards: You need to decide what Brexit would be if you did it before you can decide whether you want to do it.

> @DecrepitJohnL said:
> Is there an EU election due soon? I can't even remember whether it is too early to panic about the non-arrival of a polling card.

We had ours weeks ago

No deal Brexit -- OGH's OP wonders if the EU27 might kick us out without a deal.

Can they do that? IANAL but was not the rationale for revocation being a unilateral decision that the EU27 could not kick us out?

Mr. Me, you may very well be right about that.

Advantage Farage, though.

"They won't even give you the option of what you want!" will be the cry. And those refuting it will have some difficulty as the popularity or not of no deal will be untested at the ballot box.

That said, if May's deal or Remain ended up with a large victory that would dilute the impact.

MPs voting for something they find unacceptable is why they find themselves in a cul-de-sac. Daft sods.

> @OldKingCole said:
> > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > Is there an EU election due soon? I can't even remember whether it is too early to panic about the non-arrival of a polling card.
>
> Ours came a week or so ago.

Thanks (and to Blue_rog). I'll check with the neighbours and give the council a ring.

> @DecrepitJohnL said:
> No deal Brexit -- OGH's OP wonders if the EU27 might kick us out without a deal.
>
> Can they do that? IANAL but was not the rationale for revocation being a unilateral decision that the EU27 could not kick us out?

My understanding is that the EU can refuse to extend the deadline and then de facto, we leave. Under those circumstances I can imagine the only recourse the UK would have would be to revoke article 50.

That would be 'interesting' politically in the UK

> @DecrepitJohnL said:
> No deal Brexit -- OGH's OP wonders if the EU27 might kick us out without a deal.
>
> Can they do that? IANAL but was not the rationale for revocation being a unilateral decision that the EU27 could not kick us out?

They can't stop the UK revoking, but they can stop it extending. Revoking is a much more politically adventurous thing for the UK to do than extending, so if the EU refused an extension it could well result in No-Deal Brexit.

A deal cooked up by Corbyn and May will not include a referendum. Will then trigger swathes of MPs breaking away from their own parties. Will then reject the cooked up deal. Will then see various new groupings demanding a referendum. But also see MPs absolutely not willing to vote for one. Or throw out the government. Or force a general election.

Nothing will happen before the summer 2022 General Election.

> @DecrepitJohnL said:
> No deal Brexit -- OGH's OP wonders if the EU27 might kick us out without a deal.
>
> Can they do that? IANAL but was not the rationale for revocation being a unilateral decision that the EU27 could not kick us out?

They can remove the option of an extension, leaving us theoretically with the choice between revocation and a no deal exit, but for practical reasons of time revocation may not be an option, particularly if the PM is opposed.

DecrepitJohnL said:

OT the Telegraph's story about train delays caused by Flying Scotsman fans getting too close to the tracks is illustrated by a number of tweets from a train driver tweeting as Don't Buy The Telegraph.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/05/08/train-drivers-hit-flying-scotsman-train-spotters-blame-delays/

That makes me want to buy the Telegraph.

> @edmundintokyo said:
> > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > No deal Brexit -- OGH's OP wonders if the EU27 might kick us out without a deal.
> >
> > Can they do that? IANAL but was not the rationale for revocation being a unilateral decision that the EU27 could not kick us out?
>
> They can't stop the UK revoking, but they can stop it extending. Revoking is a much more politically adventurous thing for the UK to do than extending, so if the EU refused an extension it could well result in No-Deal Brexit.

If we revoke, re-trigger Article 50 and agree a deal, could we still leave on 31 October or do we need to wait two years? If the former then doesnt seem much practical difference even if a big difference politically.

> @Morris_Dancer said:
> Mr. Above, if we revoke, MPs won't support triggering Article 50 a second time.

If we revoke through our choice then agree it seems very unlikely. If we revoke because the French "made us", I see it as plausible. Revoking may also cause a GE, and the new parliament may want to trigger Article 50.

Mr. Above, still think that's very unlikely.

Most MPs are pro-EU and pro-Remain.

If they get exactly what they want, why would they needlessly risk losing it?

FPT

HYUFD said:

@HYUFD The fact Labour are now polling at Brown 2010 levels and the Tories are polling worse than Major 1997 shows the contempt for the main parties currently held by the voters and confirms the trend from the local elections

It's actually much worse than it looks. All parties are being flattered by high levels of don't knows and will not votes, which are excluded from the headlines, bumping up their figures. In 2010 63% said they would vote either Labour or Conservative, in the latest polls that's now a ridiculously low 38%. E.g. 20% fewer people are saying they will vote Labour than even at the beginning of 2010. Now that's not to say voters won't return but the situation is precarious.

Low turnout local elections are only the tip of the iceberg as they bring out the most loyal voters. We'll see what happens to the rest.

> @eristdoof said:
> > @noneoftheabove said:
>
> > Or no-deal turns out to be a disaster and hospitals are running out of medicine and death rate is significantly higher, opinion polling shifts to 65% for a deal and EU happy to offer it, are the govt allowed to act?
> >
>
>
> If we leave with no deal, then deal is no longer available, even if the public opinion shifts to "I wish we'd left with a Deal". In practice the "Deal" is a transition agreement, and once we have left with a hard brexit, then the transition has already happened.
>

The EU are still going to want their £20bn! (approx)

Any future deal we have with the EU will get stuck on that unless it is addressed, in some form of deal, whether pre or post leaving the EU.

noneoftheabove said:

> @eristdoof said:

> > @noneoftheabove said:

>

> > Or no-deal turns out to be a disaster and hospitals are running out of medicine and death rate is significantly higher, opinion polling shifts to 65% for a deal and EU happy to offer it, are the govt allowed to act?

> >

>

>

> If we leave with no deal, then deal is no longer available, even if the public opinion shifts to "I wish we'd left with a Deal". In practice the "Deal" is a transition agreement, and once we have left with a hard brexit, then the transition has already happened.

>



The EU are still going to want their £20bn! (approx)



Any future deal we have with the EU will get stuck on that unless it is addressed, in some form of deal, whether pre or post leaving the EU.

I’m sure they won’t. Negotiation experts here have advised otherwise.

OldKingCole said:

Writing in the Guardian today Gina Miller says that

'I am therefore attempting to even the playing field by today launching Remain United, a tactical voting and campaigning website to give voters advice on which remain-backing party they would be best off supporting in order to maximise the number of seats these parties capture between them in the forthcoming election.'



Someone's going to be upset, but might just work. Last thing the country needs now is Farage crowing that 'he's won' again.

I saw (may have been on here) and followed an advert to another similar site, pretty sure it wasn't remainunited but cannot remember the address now, a couple of weeks back. Be interesting to see whether competing sites - unless this is a rebrand - make the same recommendations

The idea makes a certain amount of sense, but assuming that there are voters committed to a specific party among LD/Green/CHUK then floating remain voters may need to split to multiple parties to get most seats - e.g. 20% of remain vote certain to go LD as LD supporters, 20%certain to go Green as green supporters and the combined remain vote is just capable of winning two seats then the remaining 60% need to split as evenly as possible to secure those seats. That cannot be organised easily, unless you sign up and get a personalised randomised recommendation.

There's also a lot at stake here for CHUK and LD with respect to each other, it's hard to see LD supporters being that keen on voting tactically for CHUK when a bigger CHUK share than LD could see LD lose all their apparent recovery momentum and given the leaked CHUK memo. Vice versa for those who want to see CHUK succeed long term.

Personally, I haven't yet decided my vote and quite willing to vote tactically if I can be convinced that the tactics are correct. Otherwise it will come down to other policies I support most, which looks like a challenge for CHUK as they don't seem to have any

> @eristdoof said:
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @eristdoof said:
> > > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > >
> > > > Or no-deal turns out to be a disaster and hospitals are running out of medicine and death rate is significantly higher, opinion polling shifts to 65% for a deal and EU happy to offer it, are the govt allowed to act?
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > > If we leave with no deal, then deal is no longer available, even if the public opinion shifts to "I wish we'd left with a Deal". In practice the "Deal" is a transition agreement, and once we have left with a hard brexit, then the transition has already happened.
> > >
> >
> > The EU are still going to want their £20bn! (approx)
> >
> > Any future deal we have with the EU will get stuck on that unless it is addressed, in some form of deal, whether pre or post leaving the EU.
>
> That is irrelevant... "Deal", in the current context, only covers the transition. A future deal can of course be negotiated, but that takes years and in the mean time the UK is stuck with the "No Deal" conditions.

So in your view the govt is free to make any deal it likes the day after we leave with no deal? I can pretty much guarantee that many no deal voters will cry betrayal, stitch up, whats the point in voting as soon as the govt enters any negotiations.

We should learn from our mistakes and having a referendum option that is not clear cut has led us into a mess where over 90% of the country are now unhappy with how the govt is trying to resolve brexit. The govt is trying its best and has an impossible situation to deal with.

Why on earth should we repeat it? If no deal is to be an option it is up to the senior no dealers (Farage, JRM, Boris) to specify exactly what they want and how it can be implemented. They will not bother as 1) that involves work and effort 2) the ambiguity suits them, many will not realise we will eventually pay that £20bn one way or another, and the anti immigration groups and free trade global Britain can both believe in their post Brexit futures when they are complete opposites.

> @Selebian said:
> Writing in the Guardian today Gina Miller says that
>
> 'I am therefore attempting to even the playing field by today launching Remain United, a tactical voting and campaigning website to give voters advice on which remain-backing party they would be best off supporting in order to maximise the number of seats these parties capture between them in the forthcoming election.'
>
>
>
> Someone's going to be upset, but might just work. Last thing the country needs now is Farage crowing that 'he's won' again.
>
> I saw (may have been on here) and followed an advert to another similar site, pretty sure it wasn't remainunited but cannot remember the address now, a couple of weeks back. Be interesting to see whether competing sites - unless this is a rebrand - make the same recommendations
>
> The idea makes a certain amount of sense, but assuming that there are voters committed to a specific party among LD/Green/CHUK then floating remain voters may need to split to multiple parties to get most seats - e.g. 20% of remain vote certain to go LD as LD supporters, 20%certain to go Green as green supporters and the combined remain vote is just capable of winning two seats then the remaining 60% need to split as evenly as possible to secure those seats. That cannot be organised easily, unless you sign up and get a personalised randomised recommendation.
>
> There's also a lot at stake here for CHUK and LD with respect to each other, it's hard to see LD supporters being that keen on voting tactically for CHUK when a bigger CHUK share than LD could see LD lose all their apparent recovery momentum and given the leaked CHUK memo. Vice versa for those who want to see CHUK succeed long term.
>
> Personally, I haven't yet decided my vote and quite willing to vote tactically if I can be convinced that the tactics are correct. Otherwise it will come down to other policies I support most, which looks like a challenge for CHUK as they don't seem to have any

CHUK has many policies. As the name suggests, it wants change, provided nothing changes. It wants elections although it will not fight them. Most importantly, it wants Chuka to be leader, provided Heidi Allen takes the job.

> @Alanbrooke said:
> > @Alanbrooke said:
> > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > Well, Spurs!
> >
> > lol
> >
> > between you and Eagles it will be a fun time !
>
> good luck!
>
>

Thanks. TSE is used to it. This is new territory for me. I never imagined it could happen.

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

And they say irony is dead......

https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1126372980886523905

Or perhaps its self awareness that's shuffled off....

LOL, look at the state of Davidson, one trick pony
https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/scottish-conservatives-mocked-for-embarrassing-election-leaflet-1-4923341

https://twitter.com/LukeGrahamMP/status/1126145945400500224

> @SouthamObserver said:
> > @Alanbrooke said:
> > > @Alanbrooke said:
> > > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > > Well, Spurs!
> > >
> > > lol
> > >
> > > between you and Eagles it will be a fun time !
> >
> > good luck!
> >
> >
>
> Thanks. TSE is used to it. This is new territory for me. I never imagined it could happen.

Great result for Spurs who have just received the support of all Man Utd fans to defeat Liverpool in the final

> @Scott_P said:
> https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1126389852625354752

It is blantly obvious that anti Farage supporters need to back the Lib Dems in a one off protest vote against him and all he stands for. No need for Gina Miller to make it more complicated

edmundintokyo said:

OK, it turns out that on current polling the tactical voting solution is for everybody in England to vote LibDem. This kind-of shows the limits of trying to do the whole thing impartially and mathematically rather than involving actual politics: It's hard to get Greens on board with this if your idea is for them not to get any seats.



https://www.remainunited.org/be-tactical/



It says they'll have another go with new polling on May 21st, though.

Trying to get tactical voting up and running is a lot easier if the parties concerned are on board. There’s no evidence of that so far.

With nominations already closed for a closed-list D’Hondt election, they’ve a high chance of getting it all completely wrong!

> @Scott_P said:
> https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1126389852625354752

I can see the "TO BREXIT" being omitted from that document and then issued as the next LibDem manifesto ....

LDs do populism too. Fighting fire with fire.

Canvassing in an admittedly fairly, but not strongly, pro-remain area and finding Farage seems toxic on the doorstep. Getting really hostile comments given unprompted and so far not seeing this TBP surge the polls say is out there. Is anyone else, especially in "Leave areas" getting any strong anti-Farage feedback too or is it just some local fluke? TBH I cant square what we are getting with the idea that TBP will score a whole lot more than UKIP last time. I don't think they will do as well, in fact if I believe what we are seeing then I think they are well down on UKIP last time.

> @Sandpit said:
> OK, it turns out that on current polling the tactical voting solution is for everybody in England to vote LibDem. This kind-of shows the limits of trying to do the whole thing impartially and mathematically rather than involving actual politics: It's hard to get Greens on board with this if your idea is for them not to get any seats.
>
>
>
> https://www.remainunited.org/be-tactical/
>
>
>
> It says they'll have another go with new polling on May 21st, though.
>
> Trying to get tactical voting up and running is a lot easier if the parties concerned are on board. There’s no evidence of that so far.
>
> With nominations already closed for a closed-list D’Hondt election, they’ve a high chance of getting it all completely wrong!

I fundamentally don't agree with quite a bit of that. For instance, in the SE with current votes splits it is quite possible to get LD, CHUK and Green over the line and, at very best, a second CHUK. The scenario Remain United shows actually delivers fewer MEPs than no tactical voting whatsoever.

Morning all,

I see Brexit Party have selected for Peteborough. A secret millionaire.

Pro_Rata said:

> @Sandpit said:

> OK, it turns out that on current polling the tactical voting solution is for everybody in England to vote LibDem. This kind-of shows the limits of trying to do the whole thing impartially and mathematically rather than involving actual politics: It's hard to get Greens on board with this if your idea is for them not to get any seats.

>

>

>

> https://www.remainunited.org/be-tactical/

>

>

>

> It says they'll have another go with new polling on May 21st, though.

>

> Trying to get tactical voting up and running is a lot easier if the parties concerned are on board. There’s no evidence of that so far.

>

> With nominations already closed for a closed-list D’Hondt election, they’ve a high chance of getting it all completely wrong!



I fundamentally don't agree with quite a bit of that. For instance, in the SE with current votes splits it is quite possible to get LD, CHUK and Green over the line and, at very best, a second CHUK. The scenario Remain United shows actually delivers fewer MEPs than no tactical voting whatsoever.

But what do you actually have to say to people, to make them get three different parties just over the line?

Get it wrong and they all fall just short.

There is a variation to the Lib Dems sign saying "Lib Dems winning here" as they aren't "winning here" (in Horsham at any rate though they have more councillors). I cannot remember what it says but I'll look out for it today.

> @SquareRoot said:
> There is a variation to the Lib Dems sign saying "Lib Dems winning here" as they aren't "winning here" (in Horsham at any rate though they have more councillors). I cannot remember what it says but I'll look out for it today.

Didn’t realise that you’re in the same constituency, where about are you?

edmundintokyo said:

> @OldKingCole said:

> Writing in the Guardian today Gina Miller says that

> 'I am therefore attempting to even the playing field by today launching Remain United, a tactical voting and campaigning website to give voters advice on which remain-backing party they would be best off supporting in order to maximise the number of seats these parties capture between them in the forthcoming election.'

>

> Someone's going to be upset, but might just work. Last thing the country needs now is Farage crowing that 'he's won' again.



Good idea in theory, but probably quite a tough problem to work out good recommendations. If your data turns out a little bit wrong it can easily backfire.

On the other hand, the choice of LD, Green, CHUK, PC, SNP, SF does allow most people to find a flavour of Remain that they like. It may well mean fewer seats, but more votes.

LDs have the momentum

Pro_Rata said:

> @Sandpit said:

> OK, it turns out that on current polling the tactical voting solution is for everybody in England to vote LibDem. This kind-of shows the limits of trying to do the whole thing impartially and mathematically rather than involving actual politics: It's hard to get Greens on board with this if your idea is for them not to get any seats.

>

>

>

> https://www.remainunited.org/be-tactical/

>

>

>

> It says they'll have another go with new polling on May 21st, though.

>

> Trying to get tactical voting up and running is a lot easier if the parties concerned are on board. There’s no evidence of that so far.

>

> With nominations already closed for a closed-list D’Hondt election, they’ve a high chance of getting it all completely wrong!



I fundamentally don't agree with quite a bit of that. For instance, in the SE with current votes splits it is quite possible to get LD, CHUK and Green over the line and, at very best, a second CHUK. The scenario Remain United shows actually delivers fewer MEPs than no tactical voting whatsoever.

Yes, and the Greens always do well in the Euros, and LDs in the Locals. We need better information by region for tactical voting under Dehondt. Indeed it shows what acrap system of PR it is that we even talk of Tactical voting at all.

> @justin124 said:
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1126389852625354752
> >
> > It is blantly obvious that anti Farage supporters need to back the Lib Dems in a one off protest vote against him and all he stands for. No need for Gina Miller to make it more complicated
>
> It is actually far from obvious , and a significant number who voted LibDem on 2nd May will be voting for Farage's Brexit Party on 23rd May.

So, let's get this straight. You think that people in the local elections voted for the most anti-Brexit party because they wanted Brexit?
That's a bit deluded isn't it?

I think on reflection that Bollocks to Brexit hits the spot perfectly.

Anyone voting for Farage is voting for an economic shock and demagoguery in the bargain. It’s pathetic how Brexiters have turned against Mrs May, the only individual who has actually tried to pull a deal together.

Two votes for the LDs in this household.

justin124 said:

Have any postal votes gone out yet?

There's people posting ballot papers on twitter so I assume so.

From now on polls are partial exits.

> @justin124 said:
> Have any postal votes gone out yet?

Yes, I've sent mine in.

Miss Rose, that was a very good tip.

Sports bets are fine. Occasionally people wibble about them, but not too much.