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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters make it a 30% that Brexit won’t happen before 2022 or

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  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1126389852625354752
    >
    > It is blantly obvious that anti Farage supporters need to back the Lib Dems in a one off protest vote against him and all he stands for. No need for Gina Miller to make it more complicated

    Why? Any analysis of the election as a leave Vs remain contest will be based on vote share, not MEPs elected
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Stereotomy, the method adopted will be based on MEPs or vote share, depending on which is most helpful to the preferred view of the person doing the analysis.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    In the South East CUK are putting up top of list a recently expelled Tory MEP in his 70s who clearly simply wants to hang onto his seat on the gravy train. I am struggling to see that as a vote for change.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    As an aside, it is obvious Farage has American (Bannonite) funding and support.

    His campaign is the slickest thing ever to hit these shores, regrettably.

    https://twitter.com/richardbentall/status/1126220171922870272?s=21
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Miss Rose, that was a very good tip.
    >
    > Sports bets are fine. Occasionally people wibble about them, but not too much.

    Since there is a lot of posting about politics without betting it seems reasonable that there should be posts about betting without politics. Where sports posts get irritating is when we get a whole stream of posts about some ongoing sports event that has nothing to do with betting at all. Updates on current scores etc. are simply spam since it is reasonable to assume that anyone actually interested is already watching or following the match.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    edited May 2019
    > @CarlottaVance said:
    > https://twitter.com/LukeGrahamMP/status/1126145945400500224

    Why are Westminster MPs asking the Scotland Office about devolved issues?

    Meanwhile, could I ask a seasoned watcher of matters Scotch with a SCon slant, what exactly is the 'Ruth Davidson says No to indy ref II & boo to wee Nippy' party's position on Brexit? It seems to have moved from frantic reverse ferreting to complete opacity. Thankfully there are no impending electoral events where some clarity on this issue might be important.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    IanB2 said:

    > @Morris_Dancer said:

    > Miss Rose, that was a very good tip.

    >

    > Sports bets are fine. Occasionally people wibble about them, but not too much.



    Since there is a lot of posting about politics without betting it seems reasonable that there should be posts about betting without politics. Where sports posts get irritating is when we get a whole stream of posts about some ongoing sports event that has nothing to do with betting at all. Updates on current scores etc. are simply spam since it is reasonable to assume that anyone actually interested is already watching or following the match.

    Bah Humbug, if it applies to sport then same should apply to politics.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited May 2019
    Dilemma.

    They're offering me a cash-out on Spurs. 1/3rd of the takings than if they win it.

    Stick or twist?!!

    (edit. Thanks Morris_Dancer, much appreciated)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Miss Rose, might you be better off backing Liverpool as well? What are Liverpool's odds?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > Let me send goodwill to all:
    >
    > https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1126369961134444545

    I have just left Munich and they were setting up for a big all day event in Marienplatz with music and Europe info and lots of blue and yellow balloons. Looked like great fun.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    > @malcolmg said:
    > > @Morris_Dancer said:
    >
    > > Miss Rose, that was a very good tip.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Sports bets are fine. Occasionally people wibble about them, but not too much.
    >
    >
    >
    > Since there is a lot of posting about politics without betting it seems reasonable that there should be posts about betting without politics. Where sports posts get irritating is when we get a whole stream of posts about some ongoing sports event that has nothing to do with betting at all. Updates on current scores etc. are simply spam since it is reasonable to assume that anyone actually interested is already watching or following the match.
    >
    > Bah Humbug, if it applies to sport then same should apply to politics.

    But this is a politics site, that is the point. There are plenty of fan sites for sport.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,628

    Miss Rose, might you be better off backing Liverpool as well? What are Liverpool's odds?

    8/15 a couple of hours ago.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    If Brexit fails to happen it won't because of ERG hardliners. It will be because "moderates" accept Brexit is a mistake and a failure, regardless of what people voted for. Others including May and Corbyn, who are somewhat moderate in this matter, would prefer to embed Brexit whatever it is in the hope it goes way. The first group is getting bigger all the time, hence the race to get some sort of deal across the line.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,628

    Dilemma.



    They're offering me a cash-out on Spurs. 1/3rd of the takings than if they win it.



    Stick or twist?!!



    (edit. Thanks Morris_Dancer, much appreciated)

    If they’re offering it unsolicited, it’s probably more in their favour than yours if you agree to sell out.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    > @FF43 said:
    > If Brexit fails to happen it won't because of ERG hardliners. It will be because "moderates" accept Brexit is a mistake and a failure, regardless of what people voted for. Others including May and Corbyn, who are somewhat moderate in this matter, would prefer to embed Brexit whatever it is in the hope it goes way. The first group is getting bigger all the time, hence the race to get some sort of deal across the line.

    In the long run you are right. But the first group only has the chance because the ERG stopped Brexit happening to the original timetable.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On the subject of sports and sporting bets, it's our host's site. Since he mentions Burnley and cycling from time to time, I'm sure he doesn't begrudge Liverpool and Spurs fans enjoying their moment of glory.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. B2, true, but we don't need to wear blinkers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    The betting dog that isn't barking...

    https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

    Biden still with a mahoosive lead, Sanders still a solid second...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    > @justin124 said:
    > > @logical_song said:
    > > > @justin124 said:
    > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > > > https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1126389852625354752
    > > > >
    > > > > It is blantly obvious that anti Farage supporters need to back the Lib Dems in a one off protest vote against him and all he stands for. No need for Gina Miller to make it more complicated
    > > >
    > > > It is actually far from obvious , and a significant number who voted LibDem on 2nd May will be voting for Farage's Brexit Party on 23rd May.
    > >
    > > So, let's get this straight. You think that people in the local elections voted for the most anti-Brexit party because they wanted Brexit?
    > > That's a bit deluded isn't it?
    >
    > Not at all. What would be deluded would be to assume that all people cast their votes on the basis of Brexit. Many who supported the LibDems - and the Greens - last week did so as an anti- establishment protest vote or for specifically 'local' reasons. The Brexit Party was not available as such a vehicle on 2nd May but will be very visible on 23rd May. Moroever, a significant part of the UKIP surge between 2012 and 2015 was as a NOTA anti-Establishment option rather than being EU related.

    All the more reason to vote LibDem in the Euro vote as an expression of desire to Remain.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > On the subject of sports and sporting bets, it's our host's site. Since he mentions Burnley and cycling from time to time, I'm sure he doesn't begrudge Liverpool and Spurs fans enjoying their moment of glory.

    The football lazarus double and young Archie are simply reminders of what is preoccupying the majority of our fellow citizens this week.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @Sandpit said:
    > Dilemma.
    >
    >
    >
    > They're offering me a cash-out on Spurs. 1/3rd of the takings than if they win it.
    >
    >
    >
    > Stick or twist?!!
    >
    >
    >
    > (edit. Thanks Morris_Dancer, much appreciated)
    >
    > If they’re offering it unsolicited, it’s probably more in their favour than yours if you agree to sell out.

    Probably but not necessarily. Cash-outs might usually screw the punter but it is also possible that the bookie has unexpectedly large liabilities, or even that the computer algorithm is wrong: I've heard of shrewdies being banned for "abusing" this facility. In this particular case, looking at the odds available to hedge on the other lot might help.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited May 2019
    IanB2 said:

    > @FF43 said:

    > If Brexit fails to happen it won't because of ERG hardliners. It will be because "moderates" accept Brexit is a mistake and a failure, regardless of what people voted for. Others including May and Corbyn, who are somewhat moderate in this matter, would prefer to embed Brexit whatever it is in the hope it goes way. The first group is getting bigger all the time, hence the race to get some sort of deal across the line.



    In the long run you are right. But the first group only has the chance because the ERG stopped Brexit happening to the original timetable.

    Agreed. The process was designed by the EU to get us out first for us to discover afterwards just how crap it was going to be. Somehow ERG went off the script, but it might too late for them to row back, as many are now doing. I would say the odds of staying after all are about right, which I certainly wasn't expecting at the start.

    Possibly also the EU made an error in terms of their agenda by insisting on the Irish backstop upfront. It won't by any means be the only big issue with Brexit for the UK once we actually get to the negotiations, if we ever do. But it has had a lot of focus.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @Nigelb said:
    > > @justin124 said:
    > > > @logical_song said:
    > > > > @justin124 said:
    > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > > > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > > > > https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1126389852625354752
    > > > > >
    > > > > > It is blantly obvious that anti Farage supporters need to back the Lib Dems in a one off protest vote against him and all he stands for. No need for Gina Miller to make it more complicated
    > > > >
    > > > > It is actually far from obvious , and a significant number who voted LibDem on 2nd May will be voting for Farage's Brexit Party on 23rd May.
    > > >
    > > > So, let's get this straight. You think that people in the local elections voted for the most anti-Brexit party because they wanted Brexit?
    > > > That's a bit deluded isn't it?
    > >
    > > Not at all. What would be deluded would be to assume that all people cast their votes on the basis of Brexit. Many who supported the LibDems - and the Greens - last week did so as an anti- establishment protest vote or for specifically 'local' reasons. The Brexit Party was not available as such a vehicle on 2nd May but will be very visible on 23rd May. Moroever, a significant part of the UKIP surge between 2012 and 2015 was as a NOTA anti-Establishment option rather than being EU related.
    >
    > All the more reason to vote LibDem in the Euro vote as an expression of desire to Remain.
    >
    >

    That is a non sequitur unless the voter happens to hold strong views re-Brexit - in reality , I suspect most people do not!
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > On the subject of sports and sporting bets, it's our host's site. Since he mentions Burnley and cycling from time to time, I'm sure he doesn't begrudge Liverpool and Spurs fans enjoying their moment of glory.

    And we have motor racing and horse racing tips. Seems reasonable to me.

    There's another good rationale: the betting companies often put them all together So, for instance, politics often appears as a sidebar on 'sporting' bets.

    So I'm on at 20-1. Missed the best odds despite tipping others! They're offering me a 1/3rd cash out.

    I think I'll stick.

    But I always try to bet with my head not my heart.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    > @justin124 said:
    > That is a non sequitur unless the voter happens to hold strong views re-Brexit - in reality , I suspect most people do not!

    No need to bother with vague suppositions when you have polling evidence.

    https://tinyurl.com/y6y7567h
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,769
    Selebian said:

    Writing in the Guardian today Gina Miller says that

    'I am therefore attempting to even the playing field by today launching Remain United, a tactical voting and campaigning website to give voters advice on which remain-backing party they would be best off supporting in order to maximise the number of seats these parties capture between them in the forthcoming election.'



    Someone's going to be upset, but might just work. Last thing the country needs now is Farage crowing that 'he's won' again.

    I saw (may have been on here) and followed an advert to another similar site, pretty sure it wasn't remainunited but cannot remember the address now, a couple of weeks back. Be interesting to see whether competing sites - unless this is a rebrand - make the same recommendations
    Found it: https://remainvoter.com/
    Be interesting to compare the recommendations (assuming the two projects are independent)
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    I'm not convinced May will be forced out even if the Tories end up on less than 10% and no MEPs in the Euros. To get her out requires the 1922 to agree to change the rule and allow an early VONC and such a vote being carried. The ERG ultras would clearly call a vote but why would Tory remainers and supporters of leadership candidates other than Boris/Raab want her out in circumstances when a no dealer would be almost certain to replace her?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    edited May 2019
    > @Tissue_Price said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1126408666528256000
    >
    > That's 2 people, non?

    I'm not her greatest fan but surely she's got more supporters than that.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > @justin124 said:
    > > That is a non sequitur unless the voter happens to hold strong views re-Brexit - in reality , I suspect most people do not!
    >
    > No need to bother with vague suppositions when you have polling evidence.
    >
    > https://tinyurl.com/y6y7567h

    Also:

    https://labourlist.org/2019/05/exclusive-no-major-brexit-backlash-for-labour-in-locals-new-analysis-shows/
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I'm not convinced May will be forced out even if the Tories end up on less than 10% and no MEPs in the Euros. To get her out requires the 1922 to agree to change the rule and allow an early VONC and such a vote being carried. The ERG ultras would clearly call a vote but why would Tory remainers and supporters of leadership candidates other than Boris/Raab want her out in circumstances when a no dealer would be almost certain to replace her?

    This the point made yesterday.

    If 157 Tory MPs don't want BoZo, May stays.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,847
    > @anothernick said:
    > I'm not convinced May will be forced out even if the Tories end up on less than 10% and no MEPs in the Euros. To get her out requires the 1922 to agree to change the rule and allow an early VONC and such a vote being carried. The ERG ultras would clearly call a vote but why would Tory remainers and supporters of leadership candidates other than Boris/Raab want her out in circumstances when a no dealer would be almost certain to replace her?

    Some might find it fun to watch Boris/Raab try to get anything done with only around 75 enthusiastic backers in parliament and 350-400 against them? They might have some hope it forces the no dealers to accept reality if they are put in charge?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,815
    > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > Let me send goodwill to all:
    > >
    > > https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1126369961134444545
    >
    > Just to go with the mood.
    >
    > https://twitter.com/LawtonMull/status/1126081479254183936

    That is brilliant (even if it did crash my computer the first time).
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Scott_P said:
    Weedy lefties trying to look tough on t’internet by swearing is so cringeworthy
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. P, is anyone arguing the slogan should be banned? Or are they just saying it's a bit unlikely to persuade floating voters?

    Of course, trying to boost turnout by playing to your base is a perfectly valid strategy. But I don't think it's going to help persuade the undecided.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    IanB2 said:

    > @AlastairMeeks said:

    > Let me send goodwill to all:

    >

    >





    I have just left Munich and they were setting up for a big all day event in Marienplatz with music and Europe info and lots of blue and yellow balloons. Looked like great fun.
    Clearly you've never enjoyed German-style organised fun. FAOD this is not a comment on this event but on Germans. They let their hair down once a year on NYE when they attempt to shoot firework rockets at each other across rivers. Even Oktoberfest is serious organised fun.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    > @Mysticrose said:
    > > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > On the subject of sports and sporting bets, it's our host's site. Since he mentions Burnley and cycling from time to time, I'm sure he doesn't begrudge Liverpool and Spurs fans enjoying their moment of glory.
    >
    > And we have motor racing and horse racing tips. Seems reasonable to me.
    >
    > There's another good rationale: the betting companies often put them all together So, for instance, politics often appears as a sidebar on 'sporting' bets.
    >
    > So I'm on at 20-1. Missed the best odds despite tipping others! They're offering me a 1/3rd cash out.
    >
    > I think I'll stick.
    >
    > But I always try to bet with my head not my heart.

    Right let's go through this :

    Stake on at 20-1

    Spurs win, receive £21; Spurs lose receive £0. Current best prices 11-20 Liverpool, 177-100 Spuds. Conveniently those add through to a 100.6% book (So they're the fair prices or near enough)

    P(21) = 0.36 x Stake
    P(0) = 0.64 x Stake

    So the expectation of the bet is thus £7.56 x Stake right now. So if you take the 1/3rd cashout you'll theoretically lose 56p long term - given most Bookies seem to be going 6-4 Spurs right now though it's fair in relation to the odds your particular bookie is giving, they're still taking the overround though.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Cluless Corbyn still pushing his we are the party to unite the country guff . And to say the country isn’t split across Remain and Leave , really what planet is he on .

    All Remainers need to ditch Labour , get behind the Lib Dems .
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited May 2019

    > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > @justin124 said:

    > > That is a non sequitur unless the voter happens to hold strong views re-Brexit - in reality , I suspect most people do not!
    >
    > No need to bother with vague suppositions when you have polling evidence.
    >
    > https://tinyurl.com/y6y7567h
    Also:
    https://labourlist.org/2019/05/exclusive-no-major-brexit-backlash-for-labour-in-locals-new-analysis-shows/

    Which is spin, since they are comparing to 2015.

    Slight difference in Labour voteshare between 2017 and 2015, post and pre referendum.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1126409263998435328

    Is anyone outraged by "bollocks"? Do they also find "bum" and "knickers" unacceptable? This seems to be making an unsustainable claim to edginess, as if it said "F-- May, f-- Rees Mogg and above all f-- that utter c-- Farage."
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Never thought about Brexit's arrow pointing to the box. Absolubte genius.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912
    edited May 2019
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Is anyone outraged by "bollocks"? Do they also find "bum" and "knickers" unacceptable? This seems to be making an unsustainable claim to edginess, as if it said "F-- May, f-- Rees Mogg and above all f-- that utter c-- Farage."

    Would a party like UKIP get in trouble for campaigning on a Fuck Brexit the EU manifesto?

    *edit* The EU is obviously what I meant.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    > @Scott_P said:
    > I'm not convinced May will be forced out even if the Tories end up on less than 10% and no MEPs in the Euros. To get her out requires the 1922 to agree to change the rule and allow an early VONC and such a vote being carried. The ERG ultras would clearly call a vote but why would Tory remainers and supporters of leadership candidates other than Boris/Raab want her out in circumstances when a no dealer would be almost certain to replace her?
    >
    > This the point made yesterday.
    >
    > If 157 Tory MPs don't want BoZo, May stays.

    Certainly this thread is as much about Boris’s repellence as it is May’s stickability.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Re Lib Dem tweet:

    Biggest, strongest Anti Brexit party? The SNP has far more MPs and members.

    Most consistent Anti Brexit party? The European Union Referendum Act 2015 was supported by MPs from all parties, except the SNP.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,815
    > @Ishmael_Z said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1126409263998435328
    >
    > Is anyone outraged by "bollocks"? Do they also find "bum" and "knickers" unacceptable? This seems to be making an unsustainable claim to edginess, as if it said "F-- May, f-- Rees Mogg and above all f-- that utter c-- Farage."

    I think it is a good line and I am not offended, but I was a little surprised. On the offensive scale I think it is a bit above knickers and bum. Try thinking of your 5 year old saying any of the three. Which would most surprise you.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912
    Pulpstar said:

    Never thought about Brexit's arrow pointing to the box. Absolubte genius.

    Yes it's a lot cleverer than I had realised. That complaint might have some merit.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    glw said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Is anyone outraged by "bollocks"? Do they also find "bum" and "knickers" unacceptable? This seems to be making an unsustainable claim to edginess, as if it said "F-- May, f-- Rees Mogg and above all f-- that utter c-- Farage."

    Would a party like UKIP get in trouble for campaigning on a Fuck Brexit the EU manifesto?

    *edit* The EU is obviously what I meant.
    Yes. Not entirely sure what your point is, though...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Scott_P said:
    I guess she's not talking about young Pete Buttigieg...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Just on psychological tricks: if you want replies to mailed out surveys, attach the stamp at a very slight angle. For reasons that are mysterious, you get more responses that way.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Mr. P, is anyone arguing the slogan should be banned? Or are they just saying it's a bit unlikely to persuade floating voters?

    Of course, trying to boost turnout by playing to your base is a perfectly valid strategy. But I don't think it's going to help persuade the undecided.

    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1126396700858314752
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    Gina Miller on Sky saying that her sophisticated model says everyone in England should vote Lib Dem to maximise Remainer MEPs.

    That would be the Lib Dem party that finished behind the Green Party in every* English region last time. Sounds like the model needs a reboot.

    *I think!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    My postal vote has not arrived. Hmmm....

    Incidentally, I only applied for a postal vote in 2016 because I would be out of the country for the referendum and I very clearly remember saying that I only wanted it for the referendum not for ever. Despite that they keep on giving it to me? How do I cancel it?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    > @glw said:
    > Is anyone outraged by "bollocks"? Do they also find "bum" and "knickers" unacceptable? This seems to be making an unsustainable claim to edginess, as if it said "F-- May, f-- Rees Mogg and above all f-- that utter c-- Farage."
    >
    > Would a party like UKIP get in trouble for campaigning on a Fuck Brexit the EU manifesto?
    >
    > *edit* The EU is obviously what I meant.

    "Screw the EU" has more rhythm, like "Bollocks to Brexit". "Fuck the EU" just sounds vulgar.

    To answer the original question, there is a pro-UKIP position, pro EU market I think. But it's too niche for any particular party to target it, so noone is.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,815
    > @glw said:
    > Never thought about Brexit's arrow pointing to the box. Absolubte genius.
    >
    > Yes it's a lot cleverer than I had realised. That complaint might have some merit.

    I've missed the start of this. What is the issue?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    If the Brexit Party win the European elections and the Peterborough by election I think about 50 Labour MPs from Leave seats will vote for the Withdrawal Agreement which will allow it to scrape through even with ERG hardliners and Remain MPs still opposing
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912
    Ishmael_Z said:

    glw said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Is anyone outraged by "bollocks"? Do they also find "bum" and "knickers" unacceptable? This seems to be making an unsustainable claim to edginess, as if it said "F-- May, f-- Rees Mogg and above all f-- that utter c-- Farage."

    Would a party like UKIP get in trouble for campaigning on a Fuck Brexit the EU manifesto?

    *edit* The EU is obviously what I meant.
    Yes. Not entirely sure what your point is, though...
    My point is where is the line on free speech for something like a manifesto?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. P, cheers for that link, but that's about broadcasting something on the news, not about whether people generally are outraged or calling for the slogan to be banned.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    edited May 2019
    Wouldn't it be a lot easier, if the dozen Tory MPs who are <b> not </b> planning a leadership bid simply put their hands up now?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1126370957332033536

    Bring it on!

    #Priti4Leader is alive and well and ready to lead the Tory Party to the lunatic fringe.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912

    Just on psychological tricks: if you want replies to mailed out surveys, attach the stamp at a very slight angle. For reasons that are mysterious, you get more responses that way.

    Isn't the because it feels more personal? The skewed placing of the stamp implying it was done by hand rather than by a machine, so the recipient feels a greater obligation to reply.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited May 2019

    So I'm on at 20-1. Missed the best odds despite tipping others! They're offering me a 1/3rd cash out.

    I think I'll stick.

    But I always try to bet with my head not my heart.

    Oi! And the boxing.

    My last tip, ahem, was Canelo to beat Khan rds 3-6.

    Thankyouverymuchindeed.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited May 2019
    Ishmael_Z said:

    > @Scott_P said:
    >



    Is anyone outraged by "bollocks"? Do they also find "bum" and "knickers" unacceptable? This seems to be making an unsustainable claim to edginess, as if it said "F-- May, f-- Rees Mogg and above all f-- that utter c-- Farage."
    For me it just seems immature. I guess that’s not necessarily a bad thing if you are targeting younger voters, but it’s a risky strategy.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    > @Scott_P said:
    > Mr. P, is anyone arguing the slogan should be banned? Or are they just saying it's a bit unlikely to persuade floating voters?
    >
    > Of course, trying to boost turnout by playing to your base is a perfectly valid strategy. But I don't think it's going to help persuade the undecided.
    >
    > https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1126396700858314752

    I saw Tamara on Sky and can confirm that she did have Bollocks coming out of her mouth.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    > @kinabalu said:
    > > @williamglenn said:
    > > https://twitter.com/bbcr4today/status/1126402756993081346?s=21
    >
    > Daft old bat.

    The line between daft old bat and dangerous old reactionary becomes ever more blurred.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    > @Scott_P said:
    > I'm not convinced May will be forced out even if the Tories end up on less than 10% and no MEPs in the Euros. To get her out requires the 1922 to agree to change the rule and allow an early VONC and such a vote being carried. The ERG ultras would clearly call a vote but why would Tory remainers and supporters of leadership candidates other than Boris/Raab want her out in circumstances when a no dealer would be almost certain to replace her?
    >
    > This the point made yesterday.
    >
    > If 157 Tory MPs don't want BoZo, May stays.

    ___________________

    In which case paralysis continues over the Summer, we get to 31 October in the same situation as we were on 12 April and it will be up to the EU to decide our fate. Will they force a no deal? Probably not I think but the only realistic alternative will be to extend A50 until at least the end of 2022 to take us past the next general election. There's no sign that the current parliament will ever be able to agree a way forward, or to agree to dissolve itself early.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Regarding Mrs May, the summer recess is a right-sized window of opportunity for the Tories to run a leadership contest and replace her with one of the many talents who will be vying for the job.

    Surely they will not pass it up?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. glw, interesting theory, could be right.

    That sort of thing elsewhere backfires (e-mails or typed letters with your name on in a faux matey sort of way can annoy people) but here that explanation could be correct.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,597
    > @kjh said:
    > > @Ishmael_Z said:
    > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1126409263998435328
    > >
    > > Is anyone outraged by "bollocks"? Do they also find "bum" and "knickers" unacceptable? This seems to be making an unsustainable claim to edginess, as if it said "F-- May, f-- Rees Mogg and above all f-- that utter c-- Farage."
    >
    > I think it is a good line and I am not offended, but I was a little surprised. On the offensive scale I think it is a bit above knickers and bum. Try thinking of your 5 year old saying any of the three. Which would most surprise you.

    Nothing would surprise me about my 5yo. An unfortunate YouTube moment (I was not expecting it from a normally benign magician's channel!) caused me to have to explain why you probably shouldn't say M-th-rf-ck-r in polite company, however funny it sounds.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1126408666528256000

    It gets better!

    #Esther4Leader is just as hat-stand as #Priti4Leader

    If the Tory leadership election ends up as a swivel-eyed pissing competition between these two then the party is well and truly screwed.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    A host of all the talents:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1126414260182179841

    One thing looks likely to improve Mrs May's reputation.....her successor.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    > @anothernick said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > I'm not convinced May will be forced out even if the Tories end up on less than 10% and no MEPs in the Euros. To get her out requires the 1922 to agree to change the rule and allow an early VONC and such a vote being carried. The ERG ultras would clearly call a vote but why would Tory remainers and supporters of leadership candidates other than Boris/Raab want her out in circumstances when a no dealer would be almost certain to replace her?
    > >
    > > This the point made yesterday.
    > >
    > > If 157 Tory MPs don't want BoZo, May stays.
    >
    > ___________________
    >
    > In which case paralysis continues over the Summer, we get to 31 October in the same situation as we were on 12 April and it will be up to the EU to decide our fate. Will they force a no deal? Probably not I think but the only realistic alternative will be to extend A50 until at least the end of 2022 to take us past the next general election. There's no sign that the current parliament will ever be able to agree a way forward, or to agree to dissolve itself early.

    Bar May's deal passing (Which it won't) or the Brady compromise (Which will never be agreed by the EU), <i>all</i> outcomes are dreadful for the Tories on Brexit. So they'll default to putting it all off till they can't any longer (2022 election with no brexit & possibly May still in charge...).

    "Nothing has changed" !
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    kjh said:

    > @glw said:

    > Never thought about Brexit's arrow pointing to the box. Absolubte genius.

    >

    > Yes it's a lot cleverer than I had realised. That complaint might have some merit.



    I've missed the start of this. What is the issue?

    The Brexit Party logo is a circle with a bold arrow pointing to the right, to the exit, or to where people vote on a ballot paper....
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    kinabalu said:
    It is so offensive to those who really lived in an unfree country and to those who fought to free them. Britain is a free country. The EU is not some totalitarian dictator.

    It’s not just hyperbole; it really is disgusting to make outrageously untrue statements like that. There are many parts of Europe which really knew what it is like to be unfree. Britain, thank God, was not and is not one of those countries. Politicians here ought to remember that.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1126408666528256000
    >
    > It gets better!
    >
    > #Esther4Leader is just as hat-stand as #Priti4Leader
    >
    > If the Tory leadership election ends up as a swivel-eyed pissing competition between these two then the party is well and truly screwed.

    Primed for Rory to burst through the center.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    A quick comment on Mike's assertion that "the UK leaving without a deal [is] something that was made illegal in the controversial backbench bill passed by MPs by one vote last month". It isn't and it wasn't.

    All the Act did was require the PM to seek an extension, move a Motion in parliament, and change the authorisation process for additional extensions (which isn't insignificant but still requires an agreed extension to be effective). It does not do anything specific in respect of No Deal and indeed, doesn't even mention the concept.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216


    Why are Westminster MPs asking the Scotland Office about devolved issues?

    Difficult to tell these days:

    https://twitter.com/AgentP22/status/1126380965440389120
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Nothing wrong with the Lib Dem slogan. Just add 'Bollocks to Democracy' for accuracy. You can't argue with the truth.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,856
    Previous thread

    'There's something rather magnificent about the way Theresa May keeps hanging on in there.'

    A bit like her personal hero Geoff Boycott. Boycott of course was often accused of playing for himself and not for the team. There he was steadily piling on the runs whilst the chances of winning the game fizzled out.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @williamglenn said:
    >
    > > https://twitter.com/bbcr4today/status/1126402756993081346
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > Daft old bat.
    >
    > It is so offensive to those who really lived in an unfree country and to those who fought to free them. Britain is a free country. The EU is not some totalitarian dictator.
    >
    > It’s not just hyperbole; it really is disgusting to make outrageously untrue statements like that. There are many parts of Europe which really knew what it is like to be unfree. Britain, thank God, was not and is not one of those countries. Politicians here ought to remember that.

    +1. But it's possible that like "Bollocks to Brexit", the idea is to be sufficiently controversial to get people talking about it.

    Incidentally, Ann W is really not looking very well.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    > @brokenwheel said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1126409263998435328
    >
    >
    >
    > Is anyone outraged by "bollocks"? Do they also find "bum" and "knickers" unacceptable? This seems to be making an unsustainable claim to edginess, as if it said "F-- May, f-- Rees Mogg and above all f-- that utter c-- Farage."
    >
    > For me it just seems immature. I guess that’s not necessarily a bad thing if you are targeting younger voters, but it’s a risky strategy.

    It's bloody great publicity.

    And no one, repeat no one, gives a shit about the word 'bollocks.'

    Apart from OfCom. Obvs.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Mr. P, is anyone arguing the slogan should be banned? Or are they just saying it's a bit unlikely to persuade floating voters?
    >
    > Of course, trying to boost turnout by playing to your base is a perfectly valid strategy. But I don't think it's going to help persuade the undecided.

    It won't persuade the traditional floating voter. It might persuade some (possibly quite a lot of) voters who have traditionally voted Labour, are strongly pro-EU and are unconvinced by Corbyn.

    The Lib Dems don't need to win the Euro-elections; they just need to do better than they did in 2014, and better than Change UK and the Greens. Anything beyond that would be a bonus.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,815
    > @CarlottaVance said:
    > > @glw said:
    >
    > > Never thought about Brexit's arrow pointing to the box. Absolubte genius.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Yes it's a lot cleverer than I had realised. That complaint might have some merit.
    >
    >
    >
    > I've missed the start of this. What is the issue?
    >
    > The Brexit Party logo is a circle with a bold arrow pointing to the right, to the exit, or to where people vote on a ballot paper....

    Thanks. Is that controversial?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    > @CarlottaVance said:
    > Why are Westminster MPs asking the Scotland Office about devolved issues?
    >
    > Difficult to tell these days:
    >
    > https://twitter.com/AgentP22/status/1126380965440389120

    You quoting Agent P quoting Michael Blackley.

    Please never use the term echo chamber again.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,856
    > @david_herdson said:
    > A quick comment on Mike's assertion that "the UK leaving without a deal [is] something that was made illegal in the controversial backbench bill passed by MPs by one vote last month". It isn't and it wasn't.
    >
    > All the Act did was require the PM to seek an extension, move a Motion in parliament, and change the authorisation process for additional extensions (which isn't insignificant but still requires an agreed extension to be effective). It does not do anything specific in respect of No Deal and indeed, doesn't even mention the concept.

    As the petition says you need to revoke Article 50. But they won't.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,815
    > @mwadams said:
    > > @kjh said:
    > > > @Ishmael_Z said:
    > > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > > https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1126409263998435328
    > > >
    > > > Is anyone outraged by "bollocks"? Do they also find "bum" and "knickers" unacceptable? This seems to be making an unsustainable claim to edginess, as if it said "F-- May, f-- Rees Mogg and above all f-- that utter c-- Farage."
    > >
    > > I think it is a good line and I am not offended, but I was a little surprised. On the offensive scale I think it is a bit above knickers and bum. Try thinking of your 5 year old saying any of the three. Which would most surprise you.
    >
    > Nothing would surprise me about my 5yo. An unfortunate YouTube moment (I was not expecting it from a normally benign magician's channel!) caused me to have to explain why you probably shouldn't say M-th-rf-ck-r in polite company, however funny it sounds.

    :)
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912

    Mr. glw, interesting theory, could be right.

    That sort of thing elsewhere backfires (e-mails or typed letters with your name on in a faux matey sort of way can annoy people) but here that explanation could be correct.

    Yes it's complicated, people are looking for signs that something was produced by a person rather than a computer, but they are also evaluating whether those signs are genuine or not. So email and letter personalisation is seen as being automated and therefore false, but a skewed stamp is seen as real, until people start to believe that machines are deliberately placing stamps askew.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    > @Mysticrose said:
    > > @brokenwheel said:
    > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1126409263998435328
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Is anyone outraged by "bollocks"? Do they also find "bum" and "knickers" unacceptable? This seems to be making an unsustainable claim to edginess, as if it said "F-- May, f-- Rees Mogg and above all f-- that utter c-- Farage."
    > >
    > > For me it just seems immature. I guess that’s not necessarily a bad thing if you are targeting younger voters, but it’s a risky strategy.
    >
    > It's bloody great publicity.
    >
    > And no one, repeat no one, gives a shit about the word 'bollocks.'
    >
    > Apart from OfCom. Obvs.

    The real outrage here is the Lib Dems still using the word "democrat" in their name.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,815
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Mr. glw, interesting theory, could be right.
    >
    > That sort of thing elsewhere backfires (e-mails or typed letters with your name on in a faux matey sort of way can annoy people) but here that explanation could be correct.

    'Hand written' printed letters is the common one. At the Winchester by election a handwritten letter went out on election day timed at 4pm from Mark Oatens wife. She was a really fast writer!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    > @logical_song said:
    > > @justin124 said:
    > > Have any postal votes gone out yet?
    >
    > Yes, I've sent mine in.

    Got mine this am and posting it later today. At least one vote for the Tories in the bag :)
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    > @TOPPING said:
    > So I'm on at 20-1. Missed the best odds despite tipping others! They're offering me a 1/3rd cash out.
    >
    > I think I'll stick.
    >
    > But I always try to bet with my head not my heart.
    >
    > Oi! And the boxing.
    >
    > My last tip, ahem, was Canelo to beat Khan rds 3-6.
    >
    > Thankyouverymuchindeed.

    Oh yes, indeed. Sorry.

    And it's true that political bets often appear embedded in sports bets. For example, look at this URL:

    https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/

    SPORTS
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    kjh said:

    > @CarlottaVance said:

    > > @glw said:

    >

    > > Never thought about Brexit's arrow pointing to the box. Absolubte genius.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > Yes it's a lot cleverer than I had realised. That complaint might have some merit.

    >

    >

    >

    > I've missed the start of this. What is the issue?

    >

    > The Brexit Party logo is a circle with a bold arrow pointing to the right, to the exit, or to where people vote on a ballot paper....



    Thanks. Is that controversial?

    A Psychologist (#FBPE) has complained to the Electoral Commission that it is subliminally directing people to where to vote.

    https://twitter.com/RichardBentall/status/1126220171922870272

    Its fair to say the responses to his tweet aren't entirely sympathetic.....
This discussion has been closed.