How would a Labour leadership challenger perform now? A credible challenger must have a chance, and if elected leader "should" find it straightforward to win the next general election from here. Time for someone to step up?
> @GIN1138 said: > Personally I can't see a May/Corbyn deal passing the Commons.
Indeed. Let's say they surprise us all and come out and say they think X, whatever it is, is the best way forward. If it does not include a referendum most Labour MPs won't back it even if it was literally the Brexit they claimed they wanted because they want Remain. If it does include a referendum most Tory MPs won't back it even if it was super hard Brexit vs Remain, since they'd fear Remain would win. Some measure of fudge and masses of MPs on both sides are not happy, and there are not enough loyalists in both to get to 320 or so votes.
Fair play to them for dragging it out this long though.
> @Benpointer said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @TGOHF said: > > > Goodbye Con party. > > > > > > https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1123333794730250241 > > > > The whole point of the negotiations to get a deal passed was to give in on something. Either that's worth it because otherwise no Brexit might happen, or it is a price too high/no deal Brexit can still happen, either way the caving in would be no surprise. > > > > I'm sure the Tories would get a pasting in locals and the Euros, but I'm not sure how they avoid that at this point. So the question is long term - if we did actually exit, however softly, how many would still be utterly furious? After all, to the ERGers Mays' deal was too soft, and yet while she was pushing it the Tory polling was fine. > > I think that's right but isn't the problem that if May's deal gets passed the government likely falls on a VoNC as the DUP and various ERG hardline nutters throw their toys out of the pram?
I have long thought the price of a Brexit deal would be the fall of the government. Personally, I would have thought that reasonable if Brexit is as important as people say it is (and unless people are Baker/Francois, even most ERGers, the majority of them even, accept the deal is Brexit, if a bad one).
As it is it has been handled so badly, and the Tories so divided, that we're likely getting no Brexit and the fall of the government.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Andrew said: > > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > > https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/ > > > > > > > > > > Biden Is Way Out In Front. Second Place Is Anyone’s Guess. > > > > > Warren is rising, and Sanders and O’Rourke are falling. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > He really is - that's quite a lead. In a field of so many candidates he might end up running away with it from there. > > > > > > He got a boost from the announcement but that will wane, especially if more allegations come out and Sanders and Warren are closer than nationally in the key early states of Iowa and New Hampshire > > > > Who are you backing ? > > I still think Sanders will win Iowa and New Hampshire and the nomination, I narrowly favour Trump for the general election though
Seriously? You narrowly favour Trump over Bernie? The Dems will be slaughtered if Sanders is the nominee.
> @GIN1138 said: > > @williamglenn said: > > The Newport rally seems to have been a success for the Brexit Party. > > > >://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/1123300637456961539?s=21 > > All those weeks of national humiliation on SCD have been leading up to this moment - The Return Of Widdy!
In that clip she’s like an older, more energetic Liz Truss.
> @rottenborough said: Are they finally noticing down at the Students Union cafes that Jezza is not the one they expected.
It has long been predicted that Labour members would 'wake up' as regards the Jezziah. The shine may have come off his halo, but given past events I'm not inclined to believe he is in any trouble, especially when if the tories implode any more than they already have he could be PM very soon. Let us not forget there are MPs who literally call him an anti-semite to his face who still work to make him PM - I don't think some students being disillusioned is going to hinder him.
> @rottenborough said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @Andrew said: > > > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > > > https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/ > > > > > > > > > > > > Biden Is Way Out In Front. Second Place Is Anyone’s Guess. > > > > > > Warren is rising, and Sanders and O’Rourke are falling. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > He really is - that's quite a lead. In a field of so many candidates he might end up running away with it from there. > > > > > > > > He got a boost from the announcement but that will wane, especially if more allegations come out and Sanders and Warren are closer than nationally in the key early states of Iowa and New Hampshire > > > > > > Who are you backing ? > > > > I still think Sanders will win Iowa and New Hampshire and the nomination, I narrowly favour Trump for the general election though > > Seriously? You narrowly favour Trump over Bernie? The Dems will be slaughtered if Sanders is the nominee.
No, the Dems will be slaughtered only if Warren is the nominee, Sanders will be closer but less of a threat to Trump than Biden
This is another of those bullcrap Brexit points. If the WA is the least worst option people should have the courage to vote for it, but they are concerned about having cover to do so. I don't believe people talking in such a fashion are even slightly 'convertable' to voting for it, they are just trying to appear more reasonable.
It's because I've been coming to this site for a decade and a half, the web address is seared into my neurons and I'm a luddite who doesn't like change.
A decade and a half, eh?
So you are posting using an Atari or a Nokia 3360?
> @HYUFD said: > > @rottenborough said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > @Andrew said: > > > > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > > > > https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/ > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Biden Is Way Out In Front. Second Place Is Anyone’s Guess. > > > > > > > Warren is rising, and Sanders and O’Rourke are falling. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > He really is - that's quite a lead. In a field of so many candidates he might end up running away with it from there. > > > > > > > > > > He got a boost from the announcement but that will wane, especially if more allegations come out and Sanders and Warren are closer than nationally in the key early states of Iowa and New Hampshire > > > > > > > > Who are you backing ? > > > > > > I still think Sanders will win Iowa and New Hampshire and the nomination, I narrowly favour Trump for the general election though > > > > Seriously? You narrowly favour Trump over Bernie? The Dems will be slaughtered if Sanders is the nominee. > > No, the Dems will be slaughtered only if Warren is the nominee, Sanders will be closer but less of a threat to Trump than Biden
> @kle4 said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > May should definitely agree the Customs deal, if that is what it is, with Corbyn. It hurts Labour more than the Tories I think. > > Trouble is if she could sell it to enough of her members that way, enough Labour members could see it to ensure it wouldn't pass!
Neither set of members will be happy about it. The question is is the
Gov't payroll + other assorted Tory loyalists + Corbyn loyalists vs
ERG + Labour remain + Tory hard remain + Labour hard leave + Minor parties ?
> @kle4 said: > > @rottenborough said: > Are they finally noticing down at the Students Union cafes that Jezza is not the one they expected. > > It has long been predicted that Labour members would 'wake up' as regards the Jezziah. The shine may have come off his halo, but given past events I'm not inclined to believe he is in any trouble, especially when if the tories implode any more than they already have he could be PM very soon. Let us not forget there are MPs who literally call him an anti-semite to his face who still work to make him PM - I don't think some students being disillusioned is going to hinder him.
To be fair, taking a very definitive position on Brexit one way or the other doesn't seem to have helped the Tories or LD's much.
> @rottenborough said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > @Andrew said: > > > > > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > > > > > https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/ > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Biden Is Way Out In Front. Second Place Is Anyone’s Guess. > > > > > > > > Warren is rising, and Sanders and O’Rourke are falling. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > He really is - that's quite a lead. In a field of so many candidates he might end up running away with it from there. > > > > > > > > > > > > He got a boost from the announcement but that will wane, especially if more allegations come out and Sanders and Warren are closer than nationally in the key early states of Iowa and New Hampshire > > > > > > > > > > Who are you backing ? > > > > > > > > I still think Sanders will win Iowa and New Hampshire and the nomination, I narrowly favour Trump for the general election though > > > > > > Seriously? You narrowly favour Trump over Bernie? The Dems will be slaughtered if Sanders is the nominee. > > > > No, the Dems will be slaughtered only if Warren is the nominee, Sanders will be closer but less of a threat to Trump than Biden > > We will have to agree to differ on this one
Why would ol' Pocahontas get destroyed over and above Sanders or a generic Dem ?
It's because I've been coming to this site for a decade and a half, the web address is seared into my neurons and I'm a luddite who doesn't like change.
A decade and a half, eh?
So you are posting using an Atari or a Nokia 3360?
Ok, I get it.
So blockquote is clearly working ok on the vanilla site but not on the PB.com site.
I really hate the vanilla site though, js.
Edit: And judging by the number of >>> I am in the majority there.
Re Corbyn and Brexit dear god he is just reluctant to go against the referendum result. Whether he voted leave or remain I think more of him for trying to respect the vote.
He is of course trying to bring down the government in so doing but that is his day job.
I mean I think he is a left wing danger to the economy and an anti-Semitic c**t but he is playing it straight with his Brexit stance.
> @Pulpstar said: > > @rottenborough said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > @Andrew said: > > > > > > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > > > > > > https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/ > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Biden Is Way Out In Front. Second Place Is Anyone’s Guess. > > > > > > > > > Warren is rising, and Sanders and O’Rourke are falling. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > He really is - that's quite a lead. In a field of so many candidates he might end up running away with it from there. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > He got a boost from the announcement but that will wane, especially if more allegations come out and Sanders and Warren are closer than nationally in the key early states of Iowa and New Hampshire > > > > > > > > > > > > Who are you backing ? > > > > > > > > > > I still think Sanders will win Iowa and New Hampshire and the nomination, I narrowly favour Trump for the general election though > > > > > > > > Seriously? You narrowly favour Trump over Bernie? The Dems will be slaughtered if Sanders is the nominee. > > > > > > No, the Dems will be slaughtered only if Warren is the nominee, Sanders will be closer but less of a threat to Trump than Biden > > > > We will have to agree to differ on this one > > Why would ol' Pocahontas get destroyed over and above Sanders or a generic Dem ?
As she is Kerry in a skirt and lacks the rustbelt appeal of Biden or Sanders
> Let's hope Labour get absolutely battered on Thursday.
By the Tories? Doesn't seem likely.
Will be interesting to see how leavier and remainier areas fare against each other. My hunch is the Tories might hold up relatively better in the brexitier places and suffer in the remainier bits.
Thursday is rapidly turning into an unpopularity contest between Conservative and Labour. I wonder if anyone is going to be keeping track of how many spoilt papers are cast in places where those two parties are the only options.
> @HYUFD said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > The Newport rally seems to have been a success for the Brexit Party. > > > > > > https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/1123300637456961539?s=21 > > > > All those weeks of national humiliation on SCD have been leading up to this moment - The Return Of Widdy! > > Widdecombe will easily come top in the South West
Ranty McRantface returns from the freezer cabinet of the Nasty Party Tory museum.
Thursday is rapidly turning into an unpopularity contest between Conservative and Labour. I wonder if anyone is going to be keeping track of how many spoilt papers are cast in places where those two parties are the only options.
Very few, I'd guess; most who are disillusioned will just not bother to turn up.
> @Benpointer said: > Goodbye Con party. > > https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1123333794730250241 > > > > So we’re going to get some shabby little deal, cooked up in back rooms, are we? And no say? > > What an utter disgrace the political class is. > > If that happens, watch to see how quickly Farage flips to calling for a 2nd ref on the Deal versus No Deal.
There wont be a Lab-Tory deal. Hell is more likely to need anti-freeze.
> @Pulpstar said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > May should definitely agree the Customs deal, if that is what it is, with Corbyn. It hurts Labour more than the Tories I think. > > > > Trouble is if she could sell it to enough of her members that way, enough Labour members could see it to ensure it wouldn't pass! > > Neither set of members will be happy about it. The question is is the > > Gov't payroll + other assorted Tory loyalists + Corbyn loyalists vs > > ERG + Labour remain + Tory hard remain + Labour hard leave + Minor parties ? > > I think that could be close.
Someone on my Twitter timeline spotted a curio for the European elections - all the main candidates in the Witney by-election of 2016, bar obviously the successful Tory, are on the party lists for the South-East. Duncan Enright for Labour, Liz Leffman for the Lib Dems, Bernie's brother Larry Sanders for the Greens.
All a long way down the lists so no chance of being elected... again.
> @rottenborough said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > May should definitely agree the Customs deal, if that is what it is, with Corbyn. It hurts Labour more than the Tories I think. > > > > > > Trouble is if she could sell it to enough of her members that way, enough Labour members could see it to ensure it wouldn't pass! > > > > Neither set of members will be happy about it. The question is is the > > > > Gov't payroll + other assorted Tory loyalists + Corbyn loyalists vs > > > > ERG + Labour remain + Tory hard remain + Labour hard leave + Minor parties ? > > > > I think that could be close. > > Why would Jezza agree a deal?
He should agree to a deal so soft that the ERG go apoplectic and defect to the Brexit party. It still probably wouldnt pass, and the Tories will be trashed for a generation.
> @rottenborough said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > May should definitely agree the Customs deal, if that is what it is, with Corbyn. It hurts Labour more than the Tories I think. > > > > > > Trouble is if she could sell it to enough of her members that way, enough Labour members could see it to ensure it wouldn't pass! > > > > Neither set of members will be happy about it. The question is is the > > > > Gov't payroll + other assorted Tory loyalists + Corbyn loyalists vs > > > > ERG + Labour remain + Tory hard remain + Labour hard leave + Minor parties ? > > > > I think that could be close. > > Why would Jezza agree a deal?
I don't know if he will, I'm musing about what might come... afterwards though.
Russian Oligarch's wife paid £135,000 for dinner with Theresa May and SIX female cabinet ministers to be pictured with them at a hotel that is the favourite of Royals
Am I right in saying the NEC couldn't really have overturned the LAB referendum policy today? It was just a show of hands about whether they are still cool with it.
I think the LAB vote %age will be lower than the recent locals polling as a result of it, but not by much outside of London. The bleed to GRN / LD / CUK might be more pronounced by the time we get to Euros, where local matters are less material.
I did some D'hont-Baxtering for the south west & gib today based on recent polling, the 2014 results, guesswork, fingers in the air and elastic bands. The first four are BRX (Widdecombe), CON (Fox), BRX (Glancy) and LAB (Moody), I think in that order.
The fifth and especially sixth seats are too close to call; such is the nature of D'hondt- GRN (Scott Cato) looks best placed for fifth.
CON (Mustoe), LD (Voaden), CUK (Johnson) and LAB (Adonis) scrapping for the last one.
The nature of D'hondt means one can't easily vote tactically against Adonis. Hey ho.
If you bookmark this you can see how wrong I was in 24 days.
> @rottenborough said: > > @Benpointer said: > > Goodbye Con party. > > > > https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1123333794730250241 > > > > > > > > So we’re going to get some shabby little deal, cooked up in back rooms, are we? And no say? > > > > What an utter disgrace the political class is. > > > > If that happens, watch to see how quickly Farage flips to calling for a 2nd ref on the Deal versus No Deal. > > There wont be a Lab-Tory deal. Hell is more likely to need anti-freeze.
The only possible hope I can see for May on this is that of course there can be no official deal, but that the lesser spotted potential Lab votes emerge who would back it. Problem being I don't think they really exist in large numbers, and they need at least 30 of them, probably a lot more given plenty of Tories who voted for the deal would not vote for a Customs union deal.
Eh? What are you on about? Our politicians decide things for us all the time, their being a disgraee would have nothing to do with whether they can agree a deal or not. Even as someone who thinks a referendum is needed your position would seem to go against the very idea that our politicians should ever be able to negotiate with each other to seek consensus, since that is a 'shabby deal' in some 'back room', as though seeking public endorsement must be done.
In fact managing to come to a compromise agreement would be a sign our political class are not as disgraceful as they seem to be. It would mean they actually have been talking and listening to each other.
> @Drutt said: > Am I right in saying the NEC couldn't really have overturned the LAB referendum policy today? It was just a show of hands about whether they are still cool with it. > > I think the LAB vote %age will be lower than the recent locals polling as a result of it, but not by much outside of London. The bleed to GRN / LD / CUK might be more pronounced by the time we get to Euros, where local matters are less material. > > I did some D'hont-Baxtering for the south west & gib today based on recent polling, the 2014 results, guesswork, fingers in the air and elastic bands. The first four are BRX (Widdecombe), CON (Fox), BRX (Glancy) and LAB (Moody), I think in that order. > > The fifth and especially sixth seats are too close to call; such is the nature of D'hondt- GRN (Scott Cato) looks best placed for fifth. > > CON (Mustoe), LD (Voaden), CUK (Johnson) and LAB (Adonis) scrapping for the last one. > > The nature of D'hondt means one can't easily vote tactically against Adonis. Hey ho. > > If you bookmark this you can see how wrong I was in 24 days.
I'd be surprised if Lab got the sixth seat - the most likely outcome (IMHO) is that seats 5 and 6 are a very close run thing between BRX, LibDem and Green.
For Lab to get the sixth seat they'd have to get more than twice the vote share of the LibDems and the Greens, and I just don't see it.
> @kle4 said: > > @rottenborough said: > > > @Benpointer said: > > > Goodbye Con party. > > > > > > https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1123333794730250241 > > > > > > > > > > > > So we’re going to get some shabby little deal, cooked up in back rooms, are we? And no say? > > > > > > What an utter disgrace the political class is. > > > > > > If that happens, watch to see how quickly Farage flips to calling for a 2nd ref on the Deal versus No Deal. > > > > There wont be a Lab-Tory deal. Hell is more likely to need anti-freeze. > > The only possible hope I can see for May on this is that of course there can be no official deal, but that the lesser spotted potential Lab votes emerge who would back it. Problem being I don't think they really exist in large numbers, and they need at least 30 of them, probably a lot more given plenty of Tories who voted for the deal would not vote for a Customs union deal.
Deal plus CU was only 3 votes from a majority in the indicative votes
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @SandyRentool said: > > > > @justin124 said: > > > > > @SandyRentool said: > > > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > > > https://twitter.com/MickWalsh63/status/1123295308161720320 > > > > > > > > > > What is significant is that he's voting Green not ChUK. > > > > > > > > He should still face expulsion though. > > > > > > I guess I should too then. > > > > I believe that a member of any political party who reveals in public a clear intention to vote for a political opponent has to accept that the forfeiture of membership is the cost of such action. I recall an exchange on here a months back between Big G and Hyufd in which the latter was critical of Big G's decision to vote Labour in 1997 despite being a Tory party member. My sympathies were very much with Hyufd on this point - as someone who ceased to be a Labour member at the end of 1996 because I felt unable to support Blair's programme. Having done that, I felt able to please myself - and did not vote Labour again at a Parliamentary election until 2015.Had I not done that and advocated support for another party's candidate, I would have expected to face expulsion. > > Just to correct you Justin. I was not a member when I voted for Blair
Apologies - I misunderstood. In that case , you were in a similar position to myself.
> @rottenborough said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > May should definitely agree the Customs deal, if that is what it is, with Corbyn. It hurts Labour more than the Tories I think. > > > > > > Trouble is if she could sell it to enough of her members that way, enough Labour members could see it to ensure it wouldn't pass! > > > > Neither set of members will be happy about it. The question is is the > > > > Gov't payroll + other assorted Tory loyalists + Corbyn loyalists vs > > > > ERG + Labour remain + Tory hard remain + Labour hard leave + Minor parties ? > > > > I think that could be close. > > Why would Jezza agree a deal?
OT some Senate questioning of Barr coming up, presumably Mueller further down the line. Potentially a chance for Kamala and KLOBUCHAR to make an impression.
> @edmundintokyo said: > OT some Senate questioning of Barr coming up, presumably Mueller further down the line. Potentially a chance for Kamala and KLOBUCHAR to make an impression.
I think Klobuchar is just too GOP for the Dem base, Biden is probably about as centrist as they'll go.
> @edmundintokyo said: > OT some Senate questioning of Barr coming up, presumably Mueller further down the line. Potentially a chance for Kamala and KLOBUCHAR to make an impression.
To be fair, worth remembering that Gillibrand and Brooker are also Senators, as it that old bloke.
> @Pulpstar said: > > @edmundintokyo said: > > OT some Senate questioning of Barr coming up, presumably Mueller further down the line. Potentially a chance for Kamala and KLOBUCHAR to make an impression. > > I think Klobuchar is just too GOP for the Dem base, Biden is probably about as centrist as they'll go.
I don't think her and Biden are in a particularly different place, but that's also a problem, unless Biden somehow falls over.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @edmundintokyo said: > > OT some Senate questioning of Barr coming up, presumably Mueller further down the line. Potentially a chance for Kamala and KLOBUCHAR to make an impression. > > To be fair, worth remembering that Gillibrand and Brooker are also Senators, as it that old bloke.
IIUC it's the Judiciary Committee, so Booker also has an opening, but not Gillibrand.
Apropos of that, we’re on vacation in Anguilla and the Sailing Yacht “A” belonging to the oligarch Andrey Melnichenko is currently moored off the beachfront we’re staying by. It cost $400m, is the size and colour of a destroyer and looks like it should be featured in the next Bond movie.
> @MikeSmithson said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > Is it tomorrow we find out whether there's going to be a by election in Peterborough? > > Yes. Read the earlier thread
Not necessarily. The poll closes at 5pm and in the North Antrim case the result wasn’t announced until the following morning. So it could be Thursday.
Extraordinary that this should be happening after all the scrutiny and protestations that they will sort out the problem. The only conclusion possible (unless this is an outright lie, which seems implausible) is that they just don’t give a damn.
Extraordinary that this should be happening after all the scrutiny and protestations that they will sort out the problem. The only conclusion possible (unless this is an outright lie, which seems implausible) is that they just don’t give a damn
Or that they are mind-bendingly stupid and incompetent. Which doesn't seem at all implausible.
> @ydoethur said: > How Labour handles complaints: > > https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1123168443975520258 > > > > Extraordinary that this should be happening after all the scrutiny and protestations that they will sort out the problem. > The only conclusion possible (unless this is an outright lie, which seems implausible) is that they just don’t give a damn > > Or that they are mind-bendingly stupid and incompetent. Which doesn't seem at all implausible.
> @IanB2 said: > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > Is it tomorrow we find out whether there's going to be a by election in Peterborough? > > > > Yes. Read the earlier thread > > Not necessarily. The poll closes at 5pm and in the North Antrim case the result wasn’t announced until the following morning. So it could be Thursday.
> @edmundintokyo said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > > @edmundintokyo said: > > > OT some Senate questioning of Barr coming up, presumably Mueller further down the line. Potentially a chance for Kamala and KLOBUCHAR to make an impression. > > > > I think Klobuchar is just too GOP for the Dem base, Biden is probably about as centrist as they'll go. > > I don't think her and Biden are in a particularly different place, but that's also a problem, unless Biden somehow falls over.
Which on his previous record he is liable to do. He's gaffe prone
Definitely 'and.' The one derives from the other. If you appoint your mates, or your mate's mates (double meaning there) rather than people of talent and integrity to senior posts it ends with a shambles almost as imposing as the Vanilla blockquotes farrago.
> @Charles said: > Completely off topic > > > > I really hate dementia > > > > I have just had to tell my father not to leave the house with his baseball bat..... > > > > (He has deteriorated a lot in the last week and I my brother and I are finalising a move to a care home near to me - this could be a long week or so) > > I’m sorry to hear that. It can be grim
All sympathies to Mr/Ms Floater. It's not a relief actually leaving ones parent in the Care Home at first either, but then one does realise that the minute-by-minute alarms are over.
> @ydoethur said: > How Labour handles complaints: > > https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1123168443975520258 > > > > Extraordinary that this should be happening after all the scrutiny and protestations that they will sort out the problem. > The only conclusion possible (unless this is an outright lie, which seems implausible) is that they just don’t give a damn > > Or that they are mind-bendingly stupid and incompetent. Which doesn't seem at all implausible.
TBH it does read like incompetence and rigidity to me. Them's the rules etc. Bit like the DWP and the Home Office; we don't make mistakes. Even when we do, it's your fault.
‘TBH it does read like incompetence and rigidity to me. Them's the rules etc. Bit like the DWP and the Home Office; we don't make mistakes. Even when we do, it's your fault.“
That doesn’t wash. If this came out of the blue, then that might be plausible, but in the context of the last year it is simply inexcusable.
‘TBH it does read like incompetence and rigidity to me. Them's the rules etc. Bit like the DWP and the Home Office; we don't make mistakes. Even when we do, it's your fault.“
That doesn’t wash. If this came out of the blue, then that might be plausible, but in the context of the last year it is simply inexcusable.
'Vote Labour, we're more useless than the Home Office and DWP.'
> I have just had to tell my father not to leave the house with his baseball bat.....
>
>
>
> (He has deteriorated a lot in the last week and I my brother and I are finalising a move to a care home near to me - this could be a long week or so)
>
> I’m sorry to hear that. It can be grim
All sympathies to Mr/Ms Floater. It's not a relief actually leaving ones parent in the Care Home at first either, but then one does realise that the minute-by-minute alarms are over.
Many of us will have experienced, or are experiencing, something very similar. I add my sincere sympathies.
> @Nigelb said: > ‘TBH it does read like incompetence and rigidity to me. Them's the rules etc. Bit like the DWP and the Home Office; we don't make mistakes. Even when we do, it's your fault.“ > > That doesn’t wash. > If this came out of the blue, then that might be plausible, but in the context of the last year it is simply inexcusable.
I didn't suggest that it was excusable. I hope. That would be inexcusable.
I've spent yeas blathering on about the build quality of new-build homes; that placing new regulations (e.g. environmental) on housebuilders is pointless when they're too incompetent of can't be arsed to follow existing ones.
And here's another classic example: "'New-build homes not fire safe', BBC investigation finds"
We also have to enquire why housing inspectors are not picking up on these issues. Like the FAA and Boeing, the inspectors might be a little too close to the builders ...
> @williamglenn said: > > @MikeSmithson said: > > Which on his previous record he is liable to do. He's gaffe prone > > Yes, I think the value is with Warren at the moment.
Biden is still a fair price, he should probably be about 6-4 for the nomination now based off the polling, collapsing to Even money if he keeps it up toward Iowa then going heavily odds on (1-3) or so if he sustains it. He err shouldn't be 1-3 now because of the inherent uncertainty in the race, but he has a very decent lead so deserves respect in the betting around 5-2 to 3-1 that he is now. I am not laying off at today's prices.
> > > Is it tomorrow we find out whether there's going to be a by election in Peterborough?
> >
> > Yes. Read the earlier thread
>
> Not necessarily. The poll closes at 5pm and in the North Antrim case the result wasn’t announced until the following morning. So it could be Thursday.
> > > OT some Senate questioning of Barr coming up, presumably Mueller further down the line. Potentially a chance for Kamala and KLOBUCHAR to make an impression.
> >
> > I think Klobuchar is just too GOP for the Dem base, Biden is probably about as centrist as they'll go.
>
> I don't think her and Biden are in a particularly different place, but that's also a problem, unless Biden somehow falls over.
Which on his previous record he is liable to do. He's gaffe prone
He is, but with a disciplined campaign team, which thus far he seems to have, any gaffes might not be particularly salient. He’s very far from a certainty, but he has to be favourite at this point.
Agree with others that Warren is (at the very least trading) value, and had a dabble yesterday.
> ‘TBH it does read like incompetence and rigidity to me. Them's the rules etc. Bit like the DWP and the Home Office; we don't make mistakes. Even when we do, it's your fault.“
>
> That doesn’t wash.
> If this came out of the blue, then that might be plausible, but in the context of the last year it is simply inexcusable.
I didn't suggest that it was excusable. I hope. That would be inexcusable.
Fair enough - but it’s hard to believe it’s not actually deliberate.
He is, but with a disciplined campaign team, which thus far he seems to have, any gaffes might not be particularly salient. He’s very far from a certainty, but he has to be favourite at this point.
Agree with others that Warren is (at the very least trading) value, and had a dabble yesterday.
Biden would be the worst pick in US politics since Barry Goldwater. Apart from the career of gaffes, how on earth could the Dems pick a candidate who is older than Trump?
That's not to say they won't do it of course. I mean, this is the Party who thought Hilary Clinton was a plausible candidate.
https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-creation-project-myth-history-nation-state/ Brexiteers imagine that England will somehow revive a British Empire. The options are indeed integration on the one hand and empire on the other, but the empires in question are no longer British. The EU insulates its citizens from the empires of today: China, America, Russia; Amazon, Google, Facebook. Should Brexit take place, today's Brexiteers will be tomorrow's agents of foreign empire. Some of them already are....
Definitely 'and.' The one derives from the other. If you appoint your mates, or your mate's mates (double meaning there) rather than people of talent and integrity to senior posts it ends with a shambles almost as imposing as the Vanilla blockquotes farrago.
Agreed - but even that is assuming benign intentions, which is not necessarily the case.
Mr. B, the people who refer most to the British Empire are pro-EU types inventing fictional opinions and attributing them to their opponents.
The EU's current plans are to insulate us from linking to news without paying tax and from creative freedom. Their efforts to get more tax from Amazon led to harming micro-businesses and driving more of them onto marketplace sites, such as Amazon.
Definitely 'and.' The one derives from the other. If you appoint your mates, or your mate's mates (double meaning there) rather than people of talent and integrity to senior posts it ends with a shambles almost as imposing as the Vanilla blockquotes farrago.
Agreed - but even that is assuming benign intentions, which is not necessarily the case.
I would never assume benign intentions from Corbyn's Labour.
I just can't imagine given their voter base they would actually want to give the impression that they are Islamophobic.
https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-creation-project-myth-history-nation-state/ Brexiteers imagine that England will somehow revive a British Empire. The options are indeed integration on the one hand and empire on the other, but the empires in question are no longer British. The EU insulates its citizens from the empires of today: China, America, Russia; Amazon, Google, Facebook. Should Brexit take place, today's Brexiteers will be tomorrow's agents of foreign empire. Some of them already are....
Verhofstadt was saying something similar a night or two ago. A European empire is the dream.
Taking away national freedom and democracy is for our own good, according to him and his ilk.
Quite why alliances can't be built without surrendering so much freedom and democracy isn't really explained.
He is, but with a disciplined campaign team, which thus far he seems to have, any gaffes might not be particularly salient. He’s very far from a certainty, but he has to be favourite at this point.
Agree with others that Warren is (at the very least trading) value, and had a dabble yesterday.
Biden would be the worst pick in US politics since Barry Goldwater. Apart from the career of gaffes, how on earth could the Dems pick a candidate who is older than Trump?
Out of a belief that he is the candidate most likely to beat Trump. And while that’s not a particularly good reason, and might be wrong, it could equally likely be true.
What’s more certain is that whoever might beat him (and I exclude Sanders) would have to surprise on the upside.
The Democrats haven’t chosen yet - and most who vote will at this stage have very little knowledge of the other candidates
> @thecommissioner said: > A provocative article by Timothy Snyder: > > https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-creation-project-myth-history-nation-state/ > Brexiteers imagine that England will somehow revive a British Empire. The options are indeed integration on the one hand and empire on the other, but the empires in question are no longer British. The EU insulates its citizens from the empires of today: China, America, Russia; Amazon, Google, Facebook. Should Brexit take place, today's Brexiteers will be tomorrow's agents of foreign empire. Some of them already are.... > > Verhofstadt was saying something similar a night or two ago. A European empire is the dream. > > Taking away national freedom and democracy is for our own good, according to him and his ilk. > > Quite why alliances can't be built without surrendering so much freedom and democracy isn't really explained.
“National freedom” tends to mean freedom of the government over you, not freedom for you as a citizen.
Comments
> Personally I can't see a May/Corbyn deal passing the Commons.
Indeed. Let's say they surprise us all and come out and say they think X, whatever it is, is the best way forward. If it does not include a referendum most Labour MPs won't back it even if it was literally the Brexit they claimed they wanted because they want Remain. If it does include a referendum most Tory MPs won't back it even if it was super hard Brexit vs Remain, since they'd fear Remain would win. Some measure of fudge and masses of MPs on both sides are not happy, and there are not enough loyalists in both to get to 320 or so votes.
Fair play to them for dragging it out this long though.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > https://twitter.com/sturdyalex/status/1123337701380558850?s=21
>
> LOL @ all these lefties only just noticing Corbyn's a eurosceptic of 40 years standing?
It's pathetic. Are they finally noticing down at the Students Union cafes that Jezza is not the one they expected.
> The Newport rally seems to have been a success for the Brexit Party.
>
> https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/1123300637456961539?s=21
All those weeks of national humiliation on SCD have been leading up to this moment - The Return Of Widdy!
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @TGOHF said:
> > > Goodbye Con party.
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1123333794730250241
> >
> > The whole point of the negotiations to get a deal passed was to give in on something. Either that's worth it because otherwise no Brexit might happen, or it is a price too high/no deal Brexit can still happen, either way the caving in would be no surprise.
> >
> > I'm sure the Tories would get a pasting in locals and the Euros, but I'm not sure how they avoid that at this point. So the question is long term - if we did actually exit, however softly, how many would still be utterly furious? After all, to the ERGers Mays' deal was too soft, and yet while she was pushing it the Tory polling was fine.
>
> I think that's right but isn't the problem that if May's deal gets passed the government likely falls on a VoNC as the DUP and various ERG hardline nutters throw their toys out of the pram?
I have long thought the price of a Brexit deal would be the fall of the government. Personally, I would have thought that reasonable if Brexit is as important as people say it is (and unless people are Baker/Francois, even most ERGers, the majority of them even, accept the deal is Brexit, if a bad one).
As it is it has been handled so badly, and the Tories so divided, that we're likely getting no Brexit and the fall of the government.
> May should definitely agree the Customs deal, if that is what it is, with Corbyn. It hurts Labour more than the Tories I think.
Trouble is if she could sell it to enough of her members that way, enough Labour members could see it to ensure it wouldn't pass!
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Andrew said:
> > > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > > https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/
> > > > >
> > > > > Biden Is Way Out In Front. Second Place Is Anyone’s Guess.
> > > > > Warren is rising, and Sanders and O’Rourke are falling.
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > He really is - that's quite a lead. In a field of so many candidates he might end up running away with it from there.
> > >
> > > He got a boost from the announcement but that will wane, especially if more allegations come out and Sanders and Warren are closer than nationally in the key early states of Iowa and New Hampshire
> >
> > Who are you backing ?
>
> I still think Sanders will win Iowa and New Hampshire and the nomination, I narrowly favour Trump for the general election though
Seriously? You narrowly favour Trump over Bernie? The Dems will be slaughtered if Sanders is the nominee.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > The Newport rally seems to have been a success for the Brexit Party.
> >
> >://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/1123300637456961539?s=21
>
> All those weeks of national humiliation on SCD have been leading up to this moment - The Return Of Widdy!
In that clip she’s like an older, more energetic Liz Truss.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > https://twitter.com/sturdyalex/status/1123337701380558850?s=21
> >
> > LOL @ all these lefties only just noticing Corbyn's a eurosceptic of 40 years standing?
>
> It's pathetic. Are they finally noticing down at the Students Union cafes that Jezza is not the one they expected.
Cue Alec Guinness Obi Wan Kenobi voice - "This is not the leader you are looking for..."
Are they finally noticing down at the Students Union cafes that Jezza is not the one they expected.
It has long been predicted that Labour members would 'wake up' as regards the Jezziah. The shine may have come off his halo, but given past events I'm not inclined to believe he is in any trouble, especially when if the tories implode any more than they already have he could be PM very soon. Let us not forget there are MPs who literally call him an anti-semite to his face who still work to make him PM - I don't think some students being disillusioned is going to hinder him.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @Andrew said:
> > > > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > > > https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Biden Is Way Out In Front. Second Place Is Anyone’s Guess.
> > > > > > Warren is rising, and Sanders and O’Rourke are falling.
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > He really is - that's quite a lead. In a field of so many candidates he might end up running away with it from there.
> > > >
> > > > He got a boost from the announcement but that will wane, especially if more allegations come out and Sanders and Warren are closer than nationally in the key early states of Iowa and New Hampshire
> > >
> > > Who are you backing ?
> >
> > I still think Sanders will win Iowa and New Hampshire and the nomination, I narrowly favour Trump for the general election though
>
> Seriously? You narrowly favour Trump over Bernie? The Dems will be slaughtered if Sanders is the nominee.
No, the Dems will be slaughtered only if Warren is the nominee, Sanders will be closer but less of a threat to Trump than Biden
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1123227964425101318
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1123339630798168064?s=21
> > @williamglenn said:
> > The Newport rally seems to have been a success for the Brexit Party.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/1123300637456961539?s=21
>
> All those weeks of national humiliation on SCD have been leading up to this moment - The Return Of Widdy!
Widdecombe will easily come top in the South West
So you are posting using an Atari or a Nokia 3360?
> > @rottenborough said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > @Andrew said:
> > > > > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > > > > https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Biden Is Way Out In Front. Second Place Is Anyone’s Guess.
> > > > > > > Warren is rising, and Sanders and O’Rourke are falling.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > He really is - that's quite a lead. In a field of so many candidates he might end up running away with it from there.
> > > > >
> > > > > He got a boost from the announcement but that will wane, especially if more allegations come out and Sanders and Warren are closer than nationally in the key early states of Iowa and New Hampshire
> > > >
> > > > Who are you backing ?
> > >
> > > I still think Sanders will win Iowa and New Hampshire and the nomination, I narrowly favour Trump for the general election though
> >
> > Seriously? You narrowly favour Trump over Bernie? The Dems will be slaughtered if Sanders is the nominee.
>
> No, the Dems will be slaughtered only if Warren is the nominee, Sanders will be closer but less of a threat to Trump than Biden
We will have to agree to differ on this one
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > May should definitely agree the Customs deal, if that is what it is, with Corbyn. It hurts Labour more than the Tories I think.
>
> Trouble is if she could sell it to enough of her members that way, enough Labour members could see it to ensure it wouldn't pass!
Neither set of members will be happy about it. The question is is the
Gov't payroll + other assorted Tory loyalists + Corbyn loyalists vs
ERG + Labour remain + Tory hard remain + Labour hard leave + Minor parties ?
I think that could be close.
> > @rottenborough said:
> Are they finally noticing down at the Students Union cafes that Jezza is not the one they expected.
>
> It has long been predicted that Labour members would 'wake up' as regards the Jezziah. The shine may have come off his halo, but given past events I'm not inclined to believe he is in any trouble, especially when if the tories implode any more than they already have he could be PM very soon. Let us not forget there are MPs who literally call him an anti-semite to his face who still work to make him PM - I don't think some students being disillusioned is going to hinder him.
To be fair, taking a very definitive position on Brexit one way or the other doesn't seem to have helped the Tories or LD's much.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > @Andrew said:
> > > > > > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > > > > > https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Biden Is Way Out In Front. Second Place Is Anyone’s Guess.
> > > > > > > > Warren is rising, and Sanders and O’Rourke are falling.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > He really is - that's quite a lead. In a field of so many candidates he might end up running away with it from there.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > He got a boost from the announcement but that will wane, especially if more allegations come out and Sanders and Warren are closer than nationally in the key early states of Iowa and New Hampshire
> > > > >
> > > > > Who are you backing ?
> > > >
> > > > I still think Sanders will win Iowa and New Hampshire and the nomination, I narrowly favour Trump for the general election though
> > >
> > > Seriously? You narrowly favour Trump over Bernie? The Dems will be slaughtered if Sanders is the nominee.
> >
> > No, the Dems will be slaughtered only if Warren is the nominee, Sanders will be closer but less of a threat to Trump than Biden
>
> We will have to agree to differ on this one
Why would ol' Pocahontas get destroyed over and above Sanders or a generic Dem ?
So blockquote is clearly working ok on the vanilla site but not on the PB.com site.
I really hate the vanilla site though, js.
Edit: And judging by the number of >>> I am in the majority there.
He is of course trying to bring down the government in so doing but that is his day job.
I mean I think he is a left wing danger to the economy and an anti-Semitic c**t but he is playing it straight with his Brexit stance.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > > @Andrew said:
> > > > > > > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > > > > > > https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Biden Is Way Out In Front. Second Place Is Anyone’s Guess.
> > > > > > > > > Warren is rising, and Sanders and O’Rourke are falling.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > He really is - that's quite a lead. In a field of so many candidates he might end up running away with it from there.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > He got a boost from the announcement but that will wane, especially if more allegations come out and Sanders and Warren are closer than nationally in the key early states of Iowa and New Hampshire
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Who are you backing ?
> > > > >
> > > > > I still think Sanders will win Iowa and New Hampshire and the nomination, I narrowly favour Trump for the general election though
> > > >
> > > > Seriously? You narrowly favour Trump over Bernie? The Dems will be slaughtered if Sanders is the nominee.
> > >
> > > No, the Dems will be slaughtered only if Warren is the nominee, Sanders will be closer but less of a threat to Trump than Biden
> >
> > We will have to agree to differ on this one
>
> Why would ol' Pocahontas get destroyed over and above Sanders or a generic Dem ?
As she is Kerry in a skirt and lacks the rustbelt appeal of Biden or Sanders
> Let's hope Labour get absolutely battered on Thursday.
By the Tories? Doesn't seem likely.
What an utter disgrace the political class is.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > The Newport rally seems to have been a success for the Brexit Party.
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/1123300637456961539?s=21
> >
> > All those weeks of national humiliation on SCD have been leading up to this moment - The Return Of Widdy!
>
> Widdecombe will easily come top in the South West
Ranty McRantface returns from the freezer cabinet of the Nasty Party Tory museum.
Still, representative of the fruitcakes in BP.
Very few, I'd guess; most who are disillusioned will just not bother to turn up.
Who else should get a say?
> > @williamglenn said:
> > The Newport rally seems to have been a success for the Brexit Party.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/1123300637456961539?s=21
>
> All those weeks of national humiliation on SCD have been leading up to this moment - The Return Of Widdy!
I hope her dancing is better than her speech making
> Goodbye Con party.
>
> https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1123333794730250241
>
>
>
> So we’re going to get some shabby little deal, cooked up in back rooms, are we? And no say?
>
> What an utter disgrace the political class is.
>
> If that happens, watch to see how quickly Farage flips to calling for a 2nd ref on the Deal versus No Deal.
There wont be a Lab-Tory deal. Hell is more likely to need anti-freeze.
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > May should definitely agree the Customs deal, if that is what it is, with Corbyn. It hurts Labour more than the Tories I think.
> >
> > Trouble is if she could sell it to enough of her members that way, enough Labour members could see it to ensure it wouldn't pass!
>
> Neither set of members will be happy about it. The question is is the
>
> Gov't payroll + other assorted Tory loyalists + Corbyn loyalists vs
>
> ERG + Labour remain + Tory hard remain + Labour hard leave + Minor parties ?
>
> I think that could be close.
Why would Jezza agree a deal?
> > @williamglenn said:
> > The Newport rally seems to have been a success for the Brexit Party.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/1123300637456961539?s=21
>
> All those weeks of national humiliation on SCD have been leading up to this moment - The Return Of Widdy!
Perhaps it should all be resolved by a Dance off, Widdy vs Vince.
Popcorn optional, Werthers mandatory.
All a long way down the lists so no chance of being elected... again.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > May should definitely agree the Customs deal, if that is what it is, with Corbyn. It hurts Labour more than the Tories I think.
> > >
> > > Trouble is if she could sell it to enough of her members that way, enough Labour members could see it to ensure it wouldn't pass!
> >
> > Neither set of members will be happy about it. The question is is the
> >
> > Gov't payroll + other assorted Tory loyalists + Corbyn loyalists vs
> >
> > ERG + Labour remain + Tory hard remain + Labour hard leave + Minor parties ?
> >
> > I think that could be close.
>
> Why would Jezza agree a deal?
He should agree to a deal so soft that the ERG go apoplectic and defect to the Brexit party. It still probably wouldnt pass, and the Tories will be trashed for a generation.
Very wrong.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > May should definitely agree the Customs deal, if that is what it is, with Corbyn. It hurts Labour more than the Tories I think.
> > >
> > > Trouble is if she could sell it to enough of her members that way, enough Labour members could see it to ensure it wouldn't pass!
> >
> > Neither set of members will be happy about it. The question is is the
> >
> > Gov't payroll + other assorted Tory loyalists + Corbyn loyalists vs
> >
> > ERG + Labour remain + Tory hard remain + Labour hard leave + Minor parties ?
> >
> > I think that could be close.
>
> Why would Jezza agree a deal?
I don't know if he will, I'm musing about what might come... afterwards though.
> May should definitely agree the Customs deal, if that is what it is, with Corbyn. It hurts Labour more than the Tories I think.
The Labour Party will never actually accept any particular Brexit plan - why would they?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6976843/Its-Ladies-night-Theresa-Cabinet-rivals-Brexit-feud-one-London-hotel.html
I think the LAB vote %age will be lower than the recent locals polling as a result of it, but not by much outside of London. The bleed to GRN / LD / CUK might be more pronounced by the time we get to Euros, where local matters are less material.
I did some D'hont-Baxtering for the south west & gib today based on recent polling, the 2014 results, guesswork, fingers in the air and elastic bands. The first four are BRX (Widdecombe), CON (Fox), BRX (Glancy) and LAB (Moody), I think in that order.
The fifth and especially sixth seats are too close to call; such is the nature of D'hondt- GRN (Scott Cato) looks best placed for fifth.
CON (Mustoe), LD (Voaden), CUK (Johnson) and LAB (Adonis) scrapping for the last one.
The nature of D'hondt means one can't easily vote tactically against Adonis. Hey ho.
If you bookmark this you can see how wrong I was in 24 days.
> Russian Oligarch's wife paid £135,000 for dinner with Theresa May and SIX female cabinet ministers to be pictured with them at a hotel that is the favourite of Royals
>
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6976843/Its-Ladies-night-Theresa-Cabinet-rivals-Brexit-feud-one-London-hotel.html
There's always been folk with more money than sense.
> > @Benpointer said:
> > Goodbye Con party.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1123333794730250241
> >
> >
> >
> > So we’re going to get some shabby little deal, cooked up in back rooms, are we? And no say?
> >
> > What an utter disgrace the political class is.
> >
> > If that happens, watch to see how quickly Farage flips to calling for a 2nd ref on the Deal versus No Deal.
>
> There wont be a Lab-Tory deal. Hell is more likely to need anti-freeze.
The only possible hope I can see for May on this is that of course there can be no official deal, but that the lesser spotted potential Lab votes emerge who would back it. Problem being I don't think they really exist in large numbers, and they need at least 30 of them, probably a lot more given plenty of Tories who voted for the deal would not vote for a Customs union deal.
> Goodbye Con party.
>
> https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1123333794730250241
>
>
>
> So we’re going to get some shabby little deal, cooked up in back rooms, are we? And no say?
>
> What an utter disgrace the political class is.
Eh? What are you on about? Our politicians decide things for us all the time, their being a disgraee would have nothing to do with whether they can agree a deal or not. Even as someone who thinks a referendum is needed your position would seem to go against the very idea that our politicians should ever be able to negotiate with each other to seek consensus, since that is a 'shabby deal' in some 'back room', as though seeking public endorsement must be done.
In fact managing to come to a compromise agreement would be a sign our political class are not as disgraceful as they seem to be. It would mean they actually have been talking and listening to each other.
> Am I right in saying the NEC couldn't really have overturned the LAB referendum policy today? It was just a show of hands about whether they are still cool with it.
>
> I think the LAB vote %age will be lower than the recent locals polling as a result of it, but not by much outside of London. The bleed to GRN / LD / CUK might be more pronounced by the time we get to Euros, where local matters are less material.
>
> I did some D'hont-Baxtering for the south west & gib today based on recent polling, the 2014 results, guesswork, fingers in the air and elastic bands. The first four are BRX (Widdecombe), CON (Fox), BRX (Glancy) and LAB (Moody), I think in that order.
>
> The fifth and especially sixth seats are too close to call; such is the nature of D'hondt- GRN (Scott Cato) looks best placed for fifth.
>
> CON (Mustoe), LD (Voaden), CUK (Johnson) and LAB (Adonis) scrapping for the last one.
>
> The nature of D'hondt means one can't easily vote tactically against Adonis. Hey ho.
>
> If you bookmark this you can see how wrong I was in 24 days.
I'd be surprised if Lab got the sixth seat - the most likely outcome (IMHO) is that seats 5 and 6 are a very close run thing between BRX, LibDem and Green.
For Lab to get the sixth seat they'd have to get more than twice the vote share of the LibDems and the Greens, and I just don't see it.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > > @Benpointer said:
> > > Goodbye Con party.
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1123333794730250241
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > So we’re going to get some shabby little deal, cooked up in back rooms, are we? And no say?
> > >
> > > What an utter disgrace the political class is.
> > >
> > > If that happens, watch to see how quickly Farage flips to calling for a 2nd ref on the Deal versus No Deal.
> >
> > There wont be a Lab-Tory deal. Hell is more likely to need anti-freeze.
>
> The only possible hope I can see for May on this is that of course there can be no official deal, but that the lesser spotted potential Lab votes emerge who would back it. Problem being I don't think they really exist in large numbers, and they need at least 30 of them, probably a lot more given plenty of Tories who voted for the deal would not vote for a Customs union deal.
Deal plus CU was only 3 votes from a majority in the indicative votes
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @SandyRentool said:
> > > > @justin124 said:
> > > > > @SandyRentool said:
> > > > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > > > https://twitter.com/MickWalsh63/status/1123295308161720320
> > > > >
> > > > > What is significant is that he's voting Green not ChUK.
> > > >
> > > > He should still face expulsion though.
> > >
> > > I guess I should too then.
> >
> > I believe that a member of any political party who reveals in public a clear intention to vote for a political opponent has to accept that the forfeiture of membership is the cost of such action. I recall an exchange on here a months back between Big G and Hyufd in which the latter was critical of Big G's decision to vote Labour in 1997 despite being a Tory party member. My sympathies were very much with Hyufd on this point - as someone who ceased to be a Labour member at the end of 1996 because I felt unable to support Blair's programme. Having done that, I felt able to please myself - and did not vote Labour again at a Parliamentary election until 2015.Had I not done that and advocated support for another party's candidate, I would have expected to face expulsion.
>
> Just to correct you Justin. I was not a member when I voted for Blair
Apologies - I misunderstood. In that case , you were in a similar position to myself.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > May should definitely agree the Customs deal, if that is what it is, with Corbyn. It hurts Labour more than the Tories I think.
> > >
> > > Trouble is if she could sell it to enough of her members that way, enough Labour members could see it to ensure it wouldn't pass!
> >
> > Neither set of members will be happy about it. The question is is the
> >
> > Gov't payroll + other assorted Tory loyalists + Corbyn loyalists vs
> >
> > ERG + Labour remain + Tory hard remain + Labour hard leave + Minor parties ?
> >
> > I think that could be close.
>
> Why would Jezza agree a deal?
It's the only way to get Brexit done.
> OT some Senate questioning of Barr coming up, presumably Mueller further down the line. Potentially a chance for Kamala and KLOBUCHAR to make an impression.
I think Klobuchar is just too GOP for the Dem base, Biden is probably about as centrist as they'll go.
> OT some Senate questioning of Barr coming up, presumably Mueller further down the line. Potentially a chance for Kamala and KLOBUCHAR to make an impression.
To be fair, worth remembering that Gillibrand and Brooker are also Senators, as it that old bloke.
> > @edmundintokyo said:
> > OT some Senate questioning of Barr coming up, presumably Mueller further down the line. Potentially a chance for Kamala and KLOBUCHAR to make an impression.
>
> I think Klobuchar is just too GOP for the Dem base, Biden is probably about as centrist as they'll go.
I don't think her and Biden are in a particularly different place, but that's also a problem, unless Biden somehow falls over.
> > @edmundintokyo said:
> > OT some Senate questioning of Barr coming up, presumably Mueller further down the line. Potentially a chance for Kamala and KLOBUCHAR to make an impression.
>
> To be fair, worth remembering that Gillibrand and Brooker are also Senators, as it that old bloke.
IIUC it's the Judiciary Committee, so Booker also has an opening, but not Gillibrand.
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > Russian Oligarch's wife paid £135,000 for dinner with Theresa May and SIX female cabinet ministers to be pictured with them at a hotel that is the favourite of Royals
> >
> > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6976843/Its-Ladies-night-Theresa-Cabinet-rivals-Brexit-feud-one-London-hotel.html
>
> There's always been folk with more money than sense.
Apropos of that, we’re on vacation in Anguilla and the Sailing Yacht “A” belonging to the oligarch Andrey Melnichenko is currently moored off the beachfront we’re staying by. It cost $400m, is the size and colour of a destroyer and looks like it should be featured in the next Bond movie.
https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1123168443975520258
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > Is it tomorrow we find out whether there's going to be a by election in Peterborough?
>
> Yes. Read the earlier thread
Not necessarily. The poll closes at 5pm and in the North Antrim case the result wasn’t announced until the following morning. So it could be Thursday.
> How Labour handles complaints:
>
> https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1123168443975520258
That is absolutely classic.
The only conclusion possible (unless this is an outright lie, which seems implausible) is that they just don’t give a damn.
> How Labour handles complaints:
>
> https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1123168443975520258
>
>
>
> Extraordinary that this should be happening after all the scrutiny and protestations that they will sort out the problem.
> The only conclusion possible (unless this is an outright lie, which seems implausible) is that they just don’t give a damn
>
> Or that they are mind-bendingly stupid and incompetent. Which doesn't seem at all implausible.
Do you mean Or or And?
Unless Watson actually walks, he'll have to lump it. It's that simple.
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > Is it tomorrow we find out whether there's going to be a by election in Peterborough?
> >
> > Yes. Read the earlier thread
>
> Not necessarily. The poll closes at 5pm and in the North Antrim case the result wasn’t announced until the following morning. So it could be Thursday.
> @edmundintokyo said:
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > > @edmundintokyo said:
> > > OT some Senate questioning of Barr coming up, presumably Mueller further down the line. Potentially a chance for Kamala and KLOBUCHAR to make an impression.
> >
> > I think Klobuchar is just too GOP for the Dem base, Biden is probably about as centrist as they'll go.
>
> I don't think her and Biden are in a particularly different place, but that's also a problem, unless Biden somehow falls over.
Which on his previous record he is liable to do. He's gaffe prone
> Which on his previous record he is liable to do. He's gaffe prone
Yes, I think the value is with Warren at the moment.
> Completely off topic
>
>
>
> I really hate dementia
>
>
>
> I have just had to tell my father not to leave the house with his baseball bat.....
>
>
>
> (He has deteriorated a lot in the last week and I my brother and I are finalising a move to a care home near to me - this could be a long week or so)
>
> I’m sorry to hear that. It can be grim
All sympathies to Mr/Ms Floater. It's not a relief actually leaving ones parent in the Care Home at first either, but then one does realise that the minute-by-minute alarms are over.
> How Labour handles complaints:
>
> https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1123168443975520258
>
>
>
> Extraordinary that this should be happening after all the scrutiny and protestations that they will sort out the problem.
> The only conclusion possible (unless this is an outright lie, which seems implausible) is that they just don’t give a damn
>
> Or that they are mind-bendingly stupid and incompetent. Which doesn't seem at all implausible.
TBH it does read like incompetence and rigidity to me. Them's the rules etc. Bit like the DWP and the Home Office; we don't make mistakes. Even when we do, it's your fault.
That doesn’t wash.
If this came out of the blue, then that might be plausible, but in the context of the last year it is simply inexcusable.
Can't see that as a winning slogan...
I add my sincere sympathies.
> ‘TBH it does read like incompetence and rigidity to me. Them's the rules etc. Bit like the DWP and the Home Office; we don't make mistakes. Even when we do, it's your fault.“
>
> That doesn’t wash.
> If this came out of the blue, then that might be plausible, but in the context of the last year it is simply inexcusable.
I didn't suggest that it was excusable. I hope. That would be inexcusable.
I've spent yeas blathering on about the build quality of new-build homes; that placing new regulations (e.g. environmental) on housebuilders is pointless when they're too incompetent of can't be arsed to follow existing ones.
And here's another classic example:
"'New-build homes not fire safe', BBC investigation finds"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48113301
We also have to enquire why housing inspectors are not picking up on these issues. Like the FAA and Boeing, the inspectors might be a little too close to the builders ...
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > Which on his previous record he is liable to do. He's gaffe prone
>
> Yes, I think the value is with Warren at the moment.
Biden is still a fair price, he should probably be about 6-4 for the nomination now based off the polling, collapsing to Even money if he keeps it up toward Iowa then going heavily odds on (1-3) or so if he sustains it.
He err shouldn't be 1-3 now because of the inherent uncertainty in the race, but he has a very decent lead so deserves respect in the betting around 5-2 to 3-1 that he is now. I am not laying off at today's prices.
He’s very far from a certainty, but he has to be favourite at this point.
Agree with others that Warren is (at the very least trading) value, and had a dabble yesterday.
> Won't get my vote in the Euros.
Were they before you read this? Just asking, like!
This will be fun.
That's not to say they won't do it of course. I mean, this is the Party who thought Hilary Clinton was a plausible candidate.
https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-creation-project-myth-history-nation-state/
Brexiteers imagine that England will somehow revive a British Empire. The options are indeed integration on the one hand and empire on the other, but the empires in question are no longer British. The EU insulates its citizens from the empires of today: China, America, Russia; Amazon, Google, Facebook. Should Brexit take place, today's Brexiteers will be tomorrow's agents of foreign empire. Some of them already are....
> Oh, so we’ve gained both a Like button, and a broken quotes system from Vanilla overnight?
>
> It's not broken on the vanilla site.
Quotes are now working again on the main site. And the like button still remains to abuse for the moment...
The EU's current plans are to insulate us from linking to news without paying tax and from creative freedom. Their efforts to get more tax from Amazon led to harming micro-businesses and driving more of them onto marketplace sites, such as Amazon.
I just can't imagine given their voter base they would actually want to give the impression that they are Islamophobic.
Should we be putting our money on CHUK?
Taking away national freedom and democracy is for our own good, according to him and his ilk.
Quite why alliances can't be built without surrendering so much freedom and democracy isn't really explained.
And while that’s not a particularly good reason, and might be wrong, it could equally likely be true.
What’s more certain is that whoever might beat him (and I exclude Sanders) would have to surprise on the upside.
The Democrats haven’t chosen yet - and most who vote will at this stage have very little knowledge of the other candidates
> A provocative article by Timothy Snyder:
>
> https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-creation-project-myth-history-nation-state/
> Brexiteers imagine that England will somehow revive a British Empire. The options are indeed integration on the one hand and empire on the other, but the empires in question are no longer British. The EU insulates its citizens from the empires of today: China, America, Russia; Amazon, Google, Facebook. Should Brexit take place, today's Brexiteers will be tomorrow's agents of foreign empire. Some of them already are....
>
> Verhofstadt was saying something similar a night or two ago. A European empire is the dream.
>
> Taking away national freedom and democracy is for our own good, according to him and his ilk.
>
> Quite why alliances can't be built without surrendering so much freedom and democracy isn't really explained.
“National freedom” tends to mean freedom of the government over you, not freedom for you as a citizen.
> > @OnlyLivingBoy said:
> > Won't get my vote in the Euros.
>
> Were they before you read this? Just asking, like!
Yes.