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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So Team Corbyn decide to take a massive gamble and IGNORE LAB voters
Corbyn and Milne's big gamble: Ignoring the LAB voters who think Brexit was wrong. How LAB voters view Brexit from YouGov pic.twitter.com/o9s38YB2Jv
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Of course they ignore them. They're irrelevancies who get in the way of the ideology.
And the ideology always wins.
If this is as unsuccessful as the rest he might be PM in three months.
The 25 or so Labour MPs against a second vote are now more important than the 200 who support it , Corbyn is also ignoring the vast majority of the membership.
If Brexit doesn’t happen till October then a leadership challenge is needed to remove Corbyn and find someone who will reflect the party on the EU .
Or you might be a cynical Labour supporter who sees Brexit as an opportunity to do maximum damage to the Tories, which you prefer to a referendum.
They will go with Ref2 if there is a pre Brexit GE and they calculate at that time that it will work for them electorally.
To make the big pivot now for the Euros would be plain dumb. It would lock them down prematurely and the potential upside - winning the Euros - is unexciting in the extreme.
There is a reason why Tom Watson is the deputy leader.
@AlastairMeeks said:
"I fear that @Cyclefree may have strong opinions about this:
http://www.ansa.it/canale_terraegusto/notizie/in_breve/2019/04/29/mi-mette-il-parmigiano-sul-pesce-ma-lo-chef-si-rifiuta_5d05b448-db7e-48e5-a52f-44293b3dfd4f.html"
Parmesan on a fish dish as part of a sauce - maybe. Depends what it's like. Generally, I like my fish simply cooked. This smacks of over-complication but until I've tried it I will reserve judgment.
Parmesan sprinkled on pasta with seafood (calamari etc): an absolute no-no.
Quite as revolting and a culinary faux pas as, well, you know what.
Why should he care what Labour voters think? Too many of them - like Labour MPs giving ultimatums to Corbyn about stuff he has to do, which he cheerfully ignores - continue to vote Labour regardless. So they get taken for granted.
> Not in the least bit deliberately misleading - they’ve decided to follow Labour Party policy that was agreed at the last conference
Welcome to the board, tovarich, and congratulations on penetrating the CAPTCHA defences.
> Not in the least bit deliberately misleading - they’ve decided to follow Labour Party policy that was agreed at the last conference
The problem is that many ex-Labour voters/members like myself don't trust Corbyn and the unelected group that surrounds him to do it. They will always worm out of it somehow.
> If Brexit doesn’t happen till October then a leadership challenge is needed to remove Corbyn and find someone who will reflect the party on the EU .
>
> Because that worked so well last time. What was it that Watson (probably) said just beforehand? 'If he wins a leadership contest we'll be left looking not only unelectable but fucking stupid.'
Corbyn went missing during the EU ref campaign and he’s now completely ignoring the vast majority of Labour voters . He needs to go . And Labour need to find someone who can appeal to older voters . Clearly Seamus and the rest of the cabal don’t seem to be able to cope with basic maths . The Tories can’t be beaten unless Labour reduce the huge gap in over 65s voting intention . There are simply not enough younger voters to overcome the over 65s will go and vote even in a hurricane !
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2617
Biden - 38%
Warren - 12%
Sanders - 11%
Mayor Pete - 10%
Harris - 8%
O'Rourke - 5%
> Corbyn has always wanted to leave the EU. And the Tories destroyed. He senses an opportunity to do both. And he's taking it.
>
> Why should he care what Labour voters think? Too many of them - like Labour MPs giving ultimatums to Corbyn about stuff he has to do, which he cheerfully ignores - continue to vote Labour regardless. So they get taken for granted.
Whether one takes a more charitable view of Corbyn and his intentions, the final point is the key - the MPs who have stayed after Tig clearly are going nowhere. Most of the activists and voters don't seem to be going anywhere either, and if they are, it is managable as the Tories are in more acute trouble. If it is a gamble, it is one he can afford to take.
> I'm getting bored now waiting for both Labour and the Conservatives to properly split. They know they want to...
We got close with the Tiggers, but it may be as far as it goes, with both diminishing and full of internal rancour, but not actually splitting any further. Though it has to be said the Tory problems are more immediate, as Labour at least have further means of staving off confrontation, as today's actions demonstrate.
> FPT:
>
>
> @AlastairMeeks said:
> "I fear that @Cyclefree may have strong opinions about this:
>
> http://www.ansa.it/canale_terraegusto/notizie/in_breve/2019/04/29/mi-mette-il-parmigiano-sul-pesce-ma-lo-chef-si-rifiuta_5d05b448-db7e-48e5-a52f-44293b3dfd4f.html"
>
> Parmesan on a fish dish as part of a sauce - maybe. Depends what it's like. Generally, I like my fish simply cooked. This smacks of over-complication but until I've tried it I will reserve judgment.
>
> Parmesan sprinkled on pasta with seafood (calamari etc): an absolute no-no.
>
> Quite as revolting and a culinary faux pas as, well, you know what.
>
Beans-on-Naan
> Most voters aren't very political (as discussed on the previous thread), and still vote in quite a tribal way. So it's difficult to predict what will happen as far as the Labour vote in concerned.
Surely your first sentence contradicts the first? People are very tribal, so it is quite predictable what their vote will do.
> https://twitter.com/mattcartoonist/status/1123270863426605058
>
>
>
> Satirists having a whale of a time with this one.
It's their porpoise.
> It's not a gamble!
>
> They will go with Ref2 if there is a pre Brexit GE and they calculate at that time that it will work for them electorally.
>
> To make the big pivot now for the Euros would be plain dumb. It would lock them down prematurely and the potential upside - winning the Euros - is unexciting in the extreme.
>
> There is a reason why Tom Watson is the deputy leader.
Yes, that's what I think. The timing - 2 days before local elections - was all wrong. There's a time when embracing a referendum as the only option will be the natural thing to do - when May has finally run out of road or manages to force a crap deal through. At the moment, it would just look partisan - and the hardcore Remainers (who are starting to annoy me, and I'm a passionate EUrophile) would instantly switch to demanding that Corbyn pledges to supporting Remain in any referendum.
> > @kinabalu said:
> > It's not a gamble!
> >
> > They will go with Ref2 if there is a pre Brexit GE and they calculate at that time that it will work for them electorally.
> >
> > To make the big pivot now for the Euros would be plain dumb. It would lock them down prematurely and the potential upside - winning the Euros - is unexciting in the extreme.
> >
> > There is a reason why Tom Watson is the deputy leader.
>
> Yes, that's what I think. The timing - 2 days before local elections - was all wrong. There's a time when embracing a referendum as the only option will be the natural thing to do - when May has finally run out of road or manages to force a crap deal through. At the moment, it would just look partisan - and the hardcore Remainers (who are starting to annoy me, and I'm a passionate EUrophile) would instantly switch to demanding that Corbyn pledges to supporting Remain in any referendum.
And why would that be a problem for Corbyn since you told us that he told you that he had voted Remain in 2016?
> It's their porpoise.
>
> I think we should fin-ish these puns here.
>
> [Cetacean needed]
>
> Trust you to mussel in.
It just doesn’t seem Right.
> We have a primary poll with Warren in 2nd.
>
> https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2617
>
> Biden - 38%
> Warren - 12%
> Sanders - 11%
> Mayor Pete - 10%
> Harris - 8%
> O'Rourke - 5%
>
Warren is the dark horse* I think. Probably better for Dem nominee than POTUS, but she does seem to enthuse the base.
*I wouldn't bet mare than a pony though
Conversely, the plan for May would be to agree to a Labour-ish deal and make the narrative "Of course, I was always in favour of a Brexit that would safeguard workers' rights and environmental safeguards" and go for all-out attack on the right of her party:
"They were never interested in Brexit except as a means to an end - the end being making it easier for unscrupulous businesses to exploit workers and trash the environment to make a fast buck. They are neither true brexiters nor true conservatives, they are simply wreckers"
She probably hasn't got the persuasive power to make it work, but still worth a try.
> How can Spurs be 2.16 To Qualify here?
Ajax seem to struggle to keep clean sheets, but go forward well. I think they are worth a punt on to qualify. It looks a fairly toothless Spurs side, even with home advantage.
Or were you just admiring our killer puns ?
So no gamble at all TBH
> But doesn't this look like Labour will eventually support another referendum? Surely the plan must be to say "May wasn't willing to compromise", and then the only thing that can get through parliament will be May's deal subject to a referendum (vs Remain, I assume), and Corbyn would surely have to support Remain in the referendum, anything else would be electoral suicide.
>
> Conversely, the plan for May would be to agree to a Labour-ish deal and make the narrative "Of course, I was always in favour of a Brexit that would safeguard workers' rights and environmental safeguards" and go for all-out attack on the right of her party:
> "They were never interested in Brexit except as a means to an end - the end being making it easier for unscrupulous businesses to exploit workers and trash the environment to make a fast buck. They are neither true brexiters nor true conservatives, they are simply wreckers"
> She probably hasn't got the persuasive power to make it work, but still worth a try.
Their objective is to try and be able to say that they might have supported a referendum without ever actually being called upon to do it.
Have comments been broken?
> Hmmm?
>
> Have comments been broken?
DAMN IT.
Bloody Vanilla.
If I didn't have other things on, I'd change to another commenting system
I'm kinda busy right now, but will look into alternative commenting systems when I have some free time.
> Hmmm?
>
> Have comments been broken?
>
> DAMN IT.
>
> Bloody Vanilla.
>
> If I didn't have other things on, I'd change to another commenting system
>
> So it isn't just me? It really is screwed up?
Yes
That comment has not aged well...
And you edited it when you realised, I see!
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48099901
http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/7555/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-so-team-corbyn-decide-to-take-a-massive-gamble-and-ignore-lab#latest
> Why would anyone be surprised. Labour voters in areas like the NorthEast, Birmingham, Wales, South Humberside didn’t vote Remain or think Brexit was wrong. Not all comrades are equal in Labour.
That's not necessarily true.
Imagine that you're in NE Seat which voted 60:40 for Leave, and which the Labour Party won with 50% of the vote in 2017.
It's quite possible that the majority of Labour voters come from the 40% of voters in the constituency who voted Remain.
It's why the Labour Party's policy of not really having a position (other than to oppose everything the Conservative Party does) is so clever. They're opposed to THIS Brexit. And they will be opposed to all actual Brexits, while being obviously in favour of Brexit.
Protesters are run over by Maduro's armoured vehicles as gunfire breaks out, sending civilians running for cover after Juan Guaido calls for military uprising, sparking clashes with pro-regime troops
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6975871/Venezuelas-Juan-Guaido-calls-military-revolt-final-phase-overthrowing-President-Maduro.html
One is a pseudo socialist and swindler with a ridiculous moustache following a revolutionary leader who for all his lurid claims left the country in an even worse mess than he found it.
Stalin, with all his many faults, was not out to line his own pockets.
> Oh yeah, you can now like MY posts.
A like button, what is this madness?
> Oh yeah, you can now like MY posts.
NEVER
(And top trolling by @Sunil_Prasannan.)
And a Like button. Oh happy day!
More seriously, I switched to the vanillacommunity site which is less broken.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/441301-biden-if-trump-blocks-investigations-congress-has-no-choice-but-to
But then, so did Chavez.
In fact one of the worst things about being banned is you have to use the other system!
> This is one of the best displays of football I have ever seen
Their second half in Turin was the best performance I've seen in many years.
Then again I think Radiohead are very over rated.