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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So Team Corbyn decide to take a massive gamble and IGNORE LAB

24

Comments

  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    TOPPING said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    That's weird. Consecutive posts by @RobD where one was OK and the other wasn't.

    (And top trolling by @Sunil_Prasannan.)

    I swing both ways. :smiley:

    More seriously, I switched to the vanillacommunity site which is less broken.
    Now it makes sense. That would also explain why mine is working.
    I don't understand why everyone doesn't use the vanilla site. It's so much better and phone-friendly and you get the most recent at the bottom so catching up on threads is easy and intuitive.
    I always use the vanilla site, much more intuitive.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited April 2019

    If you look at how it is reported on BBC, I don't think it is a risk. To the vast majority who aren't engaged, it makes it sound to Brexit supporters like they don't really want to no go through with Brexit and to Remainers like they will eventually get their 2nd vote.



    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48099901

    Beeb gone full Corbynite apologist today;

    "Venezuela challenger accused of coup bid."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-48103858

    Maduro goons literally running people over with armoured vehicles and that's the headline?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    TOPPING said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    That's weird. Consecutive posts by @RobD where one was OK and the other wasn't.

    (And top trolling by @Sunil_Prasannan.)

    I swing both ways. :smiley:

    More seriously, I switched to the vanillacommunity site which is less broken.
    Now it makes sense. That would also explain why mine is working.
    I don't understand why everyone doesn't use the vanilla site. It's so much better and phone-friendly and you get the most recent at the bottom so catching up on threads is easy and intuitive.
    I always use the vanilla site, much more intuitive.
    Likewise, plus more ad revenue for OGH (I hope).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    edited April 2019
    > @Scott_P said:
    > hp://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1123296403827118080

    https://twitter.com/paddyhurst/status/1123279146208120833?s=21
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    tlg86 said:

    > @isam said:

    > This is one of the best displays of football I have ever seen



    Their second half in Turin was the best performance I've seen in many years.

    Surely that was only half as good as Leicester played 2 days ago? :)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    > @Foxy said:
    > > @isam said:
    >
    > > This is one of the best displays of football I have ever seen
    >
    >
    >
    > Their second half in Turin was the best performance I've seen in many years.
    >
    > Surely that was only half as good as Leicester played 2 days ago? :)

    You do have to take into account opposition both in terms of quality and quantity.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    tlg86 said:

    > @Foxy said:

    > > @isam said:

    >

    > > This is one of the best displays of football I have ever seen

    >

    >

    >

    > Their second half in Turin was the best performance I've seen in many years.

    >

    > Surely that was only half as good as Leicester played 2 days ago? :)



    You do have to take into account opposition both in terms of quality and quantity.

    Yeah, Leicester squandered too many chances. Should have been 8 nil...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2019
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    > @isam said:

    > This is one of the best displays of football I have ever seen



    Their second half in Turin was the best performance I've seen in many years.

    Surely that was only half as good as Leicester played 2 days ago? :)
    Dear me that was not enjoyable. If we qualify for the CL we'll have Tielemens please
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Should be 1-1 at half time.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @NickPalmer said:
    > > > @kinabalu said:
    > > > It's not a gamble!
    > > >
    > > > They will go with Ref2 if there is a pre Brexit GE and they calculate at that time that it will work for them electorally.
    > > >
    > > > To make the big pivot now for the Euros would be plain dumb. It would lock them down prematurely and the potential upside - winning the Euros - is unexciting in the extreme.
    > > >
    > > > There is a reason why Tom Watson is the deputy leader.
    > >
    > > Yes, that's what I think. The timing - 2 days before local elections - was all wrong. There's a time when embracing a referendum as the only option will be the natural thing to do - when May has finally run out of road or manages to force a crap deal through. At the moment, it would just look partisan - and the hardcore Remainers (who are starting to annoy me, and I'm a passionate EUrophile) would instantly switch to demanding that Corbyn pledges to supporting Remain in any referendum.
    >
    > And why would that be a problem for Corbyn since you told us that he told you that he had voted Remain in 2016?

    Because he can't reasonably negotiate a compromise on a Brexit deal in the national interest of getting a resolution, while saying he'd campaign against it in a referendum.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    > @isam said:

    > This is one of the best displays of football I have ever seen



    Their second half in Turin was the best performance I've seen in many years.

    Surely that was only half as good as Leicester played 2 days ago? :)
    Dear me that was not enjoyable. If we qualify for the CL we'll have Tielemens please
    I rather enjoyed the afternoon!

    Hamza Choudhury is the one to watch. He was also key to beating Man City on Boxing Day.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2019
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    > @isam said:

    > This is one of the best displays of football I have ever seen



    Their second half in Turin was the best performance I've seen in many years.

    Surely that was only half as good as Leicester played 2 days ago? :)
    Dear me that was not enjoyable. If we qualify for the CL we'll have Tielemens please
    I rather enjoyed the afternoon!

    Hamza Choudhury is the one to watch. He was also key to beating Man City on Boxing Day.
    Leicester have some exciting young players for sure. Maddo needs to check his play acting though. V poor to get AMN sent off on Sunday, esp after he said sorry after being sent off himself for diving earlier this season
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Well said Lisa Nandy. Tell the old crazy dinosaur where to go

    https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1123188317485355008?s=21
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    Today I passed a house with several orange diamond placards in the garden and windows. Only they didn’t mention the LibDems - just the name of the candidate and 'Focus Team'.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    > @isam said:
    > > @isam said:
    >
    > > This is one of the best displays of football I have ever seen
    >
    >
    >
    > Their second half in Turin was the best performance I've seen in many years.
    >
    > Surely that was only half as good as Leicester played 2 days ago? :)
    >
    > Dear me that was not enjoyable. If we qualify for the CL we'll have Tielemens please
    >
    > I rather enjoyed the afternoon!
    >
    > Hamza Choudhury is the one to watch. He was also key to beating Man City on Boxing Day.
    >
    > Leicester have some exciting young players for sure. Maddo needs to check his play acting though. V poor to get AMN sent off on Sunday, esp after he said sorry after being sent off himself for diving earlier this season

    Maddison has his moments, but not unique in the PL for that.

    Claude Puel set some very strong foundations for Rogers to build on. Puel is very astute tactician and scout, just a poor communicator and man manager.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    It's Labour members cutting up their cards now.

    https://twitter.com/UntoThislast2/status/1123309397537644544

  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited April 2019
    > @isam said:
    > Well said Lisa Nandy. Tell the old crazy dinosaur where to go
    > > https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1123188317485355008

    But it's OK to ask Parliament three times?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Well, I am trying to do a blog on my work site and WordPress seems to have gone mad and does not allow me to type or edit. God knows why. Very frustrating! Why is IT so rubbish when you need it most?

    If anyone has any helpful hints I will weep with gratitude and offer cups of coffee with chocolate galore!

    Grrrr......

    For the morning I think.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Spurs better this half.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/MickWalsh63/status/1123295308161720320

    Surely such a public statement makes him liable to expulsion? Indeed I would hope so!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Toms said:

    > @isam said:

    > Well said Lisa Nandy. Tell the old crazy dinosaur where to go

    > >





    But it's OK to ask Parliament three times?
    I dont think they should have been asked at all
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,167
    edited April 2019
    Looks certain the LDs rather than Labour will make the most gains on Thursday after the NEC's decision tonight and it also probably ensures the Brexit Party rather than Labour top the poll in the Euro elections
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    > @Toms said:
    > > @isam said:
    > > Well said Lisa Nandy. Tell the old crazy dinosaur where to go
    > > > https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1123188317485355008
    >
    > But it's OK to ask Parliament three times?
    >
    >

    Parliamentary debate is not the same as nationwide referenda.

    But Nandy always talks a good game on such matters, but what will she actually do either to prevent it, or in response if it happens, other than moan?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @isam said:
    > > @isam said:
    >
    > > Well said Lisa Nandy. Tell the old crazy dinosaur where to go
    >
    > > > https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1123188317485355008
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > But it's OK to ask Parliament three times?
    >
    > I dont think they should have been asked at all

    You would prefer to rely on an Executive Decree or Proclamation doubtless!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    In response to @NickPalmer:-

    Thank you.

    I suppose a leader could say "This is the best Leave deal we can get and a lot better than the rubbishy Tory deal. But it is not as good as Remain, which is what I'd prefer. The people should get a vote on whether they want to leave on this basis or Remain and in that campaign I will be on the Remain side."

    He could. But he won't. And I understand why you're saying he won't. Still, with all due respect to you and to what you have said about Corbyn's views, I think that he is perfectly happen to leave the EU as he always has been and if the Tories can do the dirty deed and be destroyed by it, so much the better. He has calculated - almost certainly correctly - that those who care about Remaining on the Labour side will either stay with Labour, despite everything, or he can afford to lose their votes.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/MickWalsh63/status/1123295308161720320

    What is significant is that he's voting Green not ChUK.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > https://twitter.com/MickWalsh63/status/1123295308161720320
    >
    > What is significant is that he's voting Green not ChUK.

    He should still face expulsion though.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    > @justin124 said:
    > > @isam said:
    > > > @isam said:
    > >
    > > > Well said Lisa Nandy. Tell the old crazy dinosaur where to go
    > >
    > > > > https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1123188317485355008
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > But it's OK to ask Parliament three times?
    > >
    > > I dont think they should have been asked at all
    >
    > You would prefer to rely on an Executive Decree or Proclamation doubtless!

    One Empire, One People, One Leader!

    All Brexit needed was an Enabling Act...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    > @justin124 said:
    > > @SandyRentool said:
    > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > https://twitter.com/MickWalsh63/status/1123295308161720320
    > >
    > > What is significant is that he's voting Green not ChUK.
    >
    > He should still face expulsion though.

    I guess I should too then.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > https://twitter.com/MickWalsh63/status/1123295308161720320
    >
    > What is significant is that he's voting Green not ChUK.

    Maybe one if those that thinks CUK are pro-brexit as well?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > https://twitter.com/MickWalsh63/status/1123295308161720320
    >
    > What is significant is that he's voting Green not ChUK.

    He regards himself as pro-EU but Hard Left? That’s probably a significant niche, though Jezz is unlikely to be aware of it.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Cyclefree said:

    In response to @NickPalmer:-

    Thank you.

    I suppose a leader could say "This is the best Leave deal we can get and a lot better than the rubbishy Tory deal. But it is not as good as Remain, which is what I'd prefer. The people should get a vote on whether they want to leave on this basis or Remain and in that campaign I will be on the Remain side."

    He could. But he won't. And I understand why you're saying he won't. Still, with all due respect to you and to what you have said about Corbyn's views, I think that he is perfectly happen to leave the EU as he always has been and if the Tories can do the dirty deed and be destroyed by it, so much the better. He has calculated - almost certainly correctly - that those who care about Remaining on the Labour side will either stay with Labour, despite everything, or he can afford to lose their votes.

    Palmer is a loyalist. 10 years so far up the Blair /Brown era that he spent his days licking tonsils and he’s now a born again Corbynite, I’m not sure that he’s the first choice for honesty.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    > @Floater said:
    > Fucking hell
    >
    > https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/30/jeremy-corbyn-fresh-anti-semitism-row-endorsing-book-jews-controlling/
    >
    > Shameless or what

    He was there but not involved....or some such crap.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    > @matt said:
    > In response to @NickPalmer:-
    >
    > Thank you.
    >
    > I suppose a leader could say "This is the best Leave deal we can get and a lot better than the rubbishy Tory deal. But it is not as good as Remain, which is what I'd prefer. The people should get a vote on whether they want to leave on this basis or Remain and in that campaign I will be on the Remain side."
    >
    > He could. But he won't. And I understand why you're saying he won't. Still, with all due respect to you and to what you have said about Corbyn's views, I think that he is perfectly happen to leave the EU as he always has been and if the Tories can do the dirty deed and be destroyed by it, so much the better. He has calculated - almost certainly correctly - that those who care about Remaining on the Labour side will either stay with Labour, despite everything, or he can afford to lose their votes.
    >
    > Palmer is a loyalist. 10 years so far up the Blair /Brown era that he spent his days licking tonsils and he’s now a born again Corbynite, I’m not sure that he’s the first choice for honesty.

    No - he really isn't.

    Tick tock eh Nick
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    How much luck have spuds had this CL competition lol ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    For somebody who isnt an antisemite, jezza doesnt half seem very keen on praising / befriending quite a lot of them.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > > @justin124 said:
    > > > @SandyRentool said:
    > > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > > https://twitter.com/MickWalsh63/status/1123295308161720320
    > > >
    > > > What is significant is that he's voting Green not ChUK.
    > >
    > > He should still face expulsion though.
    >
    > I guess I should too then.

    I believe that a member of any political party who reveals in public a clear intention to vote for a political opponent has to accept that the forfeiture of membership is the cost of such action. I recall an exchange on here a months back between Big G and Hyufd in which the latter was critical of Big G's decision to vote Labour in 1997 despite being a Tory party member. My sympathies were very much with Hyufd on this point - as someone who ceased to be a Labour member at the end of 1996 because I felt unable to support Blair's programme. Having done that, I felt able to please myself - and did not vote Labour again at a Parliamentary election until 2015.Had I not done that and advocated support for another party's candidate, I would have expected to face expulsion.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    > @justin124 said:

    > > @SandyRentool said:

    > > > @Scott_P said:

    > > >



    > >

    > > What is significant is that he's voting Green not ChUK.

    >

    > He should still face expulsion though.



    I guess I should too then.
    The fact you exchanged it for a Labour vote elsewhere (If I remember rightly) is a decent point in your defence.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Is this weird > thing happening when people not using vanilla quote?

    Can we force encourage people to type the correct code in manually if they refuse to use vanilla?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    > @TheJezziah said:
    > Is this weird > thing happening when people not using vanilla quote?
    >
    > Can we force encourage people to type the correct code in manually if they refuse to use vanilla?

    :smile:
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Completely off topic

    I really hate dementia

    I have just had to tell my father not to leave the house with his baseball bat.....

    (He has deteriorated a lot in the last week and I my brother and I are finalising a move to a care home near to me - this could be a long week or so)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    > @justin124 said:
    > > @SandyRentool said:
    > > > @justin124 said:
    > > > > @SandyRentool said:
    > > > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > > > https://twitter.com/MickWalsh63/status/1123295308161720320
    > > > >
    > > > > What is significant is that he's voting Green not ChUK.
    > > >
    > > > He should still face expulsion though.
    > >
    > > I guess I should too then.
    >
    > I believe that a member of any political party who reveals in public a clear intention to vote for a political opponent has to accept that the forfeiture of membership is the cost of such action. I recall an exchange on here a months back between Big G and Hyufd in which the latter was critical of Big G's decision to vote Labour in 1997 despite being a Tory party member. My sympathies were very much with Hyufd on this point - as someone who ceased to be a Labour member at the end of 1996 because I felt unable to support Blair's programme. Having done that, I felt able to please myself - and did not vote Labour again at a Parliamentary election until 2015.Had I not done that and advocated support for another party's candidate, I would have expected to face expulsion.

    I'd be far from wanting party members to be loyal automatons, and of course in practice I'd imagine many many party members vote for others from time to time, but it doesn't seem unreasonable to me for a party to at the least expect its members to not publicly state they will vote for someone else. It gets a bit tricky where they don't actually follow through, and you cannot prove they did it if they won't admit it, but over powerful as they are party members voting for the party seems a low demand. If people cannot then they don't have to be members, no harm.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > > @TheJezziah said:
    > > Is this weird > thing happening when people not using vanilla quote?
    > >
    > > Can we force encourage people to type the correct code in manually if they refuse to use vanilla?
    >
    > :smile:

    I picked up a brochure the other day about train journeys around Europe.

    Should I seek help?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    > @Floater said:
    > > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > > > @TheJezziah said:
    > > > Is this weird > thing happening when people not using vanilla quote?
    > > >
    > > > Can we force encourage people to type the correct code in manually if they refuse to use vanilla?
    > >
    > > :smile:
    >
    > I picked up a brochure the other day about train journeys around Europe.
    >
    > Should I seek help?

    Yes, from the Man in Seat 61.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,244
    edited April 2019
    Test vanilla?

    EDIT: Ooo yes indeed.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Floater said:

    Completely off topic



    I really hate dementia



    I have just had to tell my father not to leave the house with his baseball bat.....



    (He has deteriorated a lot in the last week and I my brother and I are finalising a move to a care home near to me - this could be a long week or so)

    Sad. Becomes a shell of the person you knew but, hey, never mind the quality feel the length.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    > @justin124 said:

    > > @SandyRentool said:

    > > > @Scott_P said:

    > > >



    > >

    > > What is significant is that he's voting Green not ChUK.

    >

    > He should still face expulsion though.



    I guess I should too then.
    Well I am not a member of any party, but it does seem a reasonable rule that one should not advocate voting for a party other than the one you belong to. That would strike me as pretty much the minimal level of commitment to the cause.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Floater said:

    Completely off topic
    I really hate dementia
    I have just had to tell my father not to leave the house with his baseball bat.....
    (He has deteriorated a lot in the last week and I my brother and I are finalising a move to a care home near to me - this could be a long week or so)

    Sounds like you are in for a rocky time. Best of luck.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    > @Recidivist said:
    > > @justin124 said:
    >
    > > > @SandyRentool said:
    >
    > > > > @Scott_P said:
    >
    > > > > https://twitter.com/MickWalsh63/status/1123295308161720320
    >
    >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > What is significant is that he's voting Green not ChUK.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > He should still face expulsion though.
    >
    >
    >
    > I guess I should too then.
    >
    > Well I am not a member of any party, but it does seem a reasonable rule that one should not advocate voting for a party other than the one you belong to. That would strike me as pretty much the minimal level of commitment to the cause.

    Should halve several parties membership figures!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    How much luck have spuds had this CL competition lol ?

    Incredible.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Spurs not out of it, especially with son back for the second leg.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,167
    > @justin124 said:
    > > @SandyRentool said:
    > > > @justin124 said:
    > > > > @SandyRentool said:
    > > > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > > > https://twitter.com/MickWalsh63/status/1123295308161720320
    > > > >
    > > > > What is significant is that he's voting Green not ChUK.
    > > >
    > > > He should still face expulsion though.
    > >
    > > I guess I should too then.
    >
    > I believe that a member of any political party who reveals in public a clear intention to vote for a political opponent has to accept that the forfeiture of membership is the cost of such action. I recall an exchange on here a months back between Big G and Hyufd in which the latter was critical of Big G's decision to vote Labour in 1997 despite being a Tory party member. My sympathies were very much with Hyufd on this point - as someone who ceased to be a Labour member at the end of 1996 because I felt unable to support Blair's programme. Having done that, I felt able to please myself - and did not vote Labour again at a Parliamentary election until 2015.Had I not done that and advocated support for another party's candidate, I would have expected to face expulsion.
    Agreed
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/

    Biden Is Way Out In Front. Second Place Is Anyone’s Guess.
    Warren is rising, and Sanders and O’Rourke are falling.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/
    >
    > Biden Is Way Out In Front. Second Place Is Anyone’s Guess.
    > Warren is rising, and Sanders and O’Rourke are falling.
    >


    He really is - that's quite a lead. In a field of so many candidates he might end up running away with it from there.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    > @Recidivist said:
    > > @justin124 said:
    >
    > > > @SandyRentool said:
    >
    > > > > @Scott_P said:
    >
    > > > > https://twitter.com/MickWalsh63/status/1123295308161720320
    >
    >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > What is significant is that he's voting Green not ChUK.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > He should still face expulsion though.
    >
    >
    >
    > I guess I should too then.
    >
    > Well I am not a member of any party, but it does seem a reasonable rule that one should not advocate voting for a party other than the one you belong to. That would strike me as pretty much the minimal level of commitment to the cause.

    Michael Heseltine fails that test. Admittedly he advocated voting Labour, not knowing the extreme lengths that Corbyn's team would go to to facilitate Brexit.

    Maybe he'd now say 'Vote Lib.Dem to stop Brexit'.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    Toms said:

    > @isam said:

    > Well said Lisa Nandy. Tell the old crazy dinosaur where to go

    > >





    But it's OK to ask Parliament three times?
    That wasn’t Lisa Nandys choice - it was Mrs Mays and the Cabinet’s. Clearly May didn’t listen to the first vote!

    And a repeated vote in the Commons doesn’t cost over £100 million!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/
    >
    > Biden Is Way Out In Front. Second Place Is Anyone’s Guess.
    > Warren is rising, and Sanders and O’Rourke are falling.
    >

    It's fascinating how Biden's surge has come largely at the expense of Sanders. My assumption was that as Biden is extremely centrist, almost certainly to the right of Hillary, then he would be fishing in a different pool to Sanders.

    So: Biden clear number one, and then five followers in the high single to low double digits: Harris, Beto, Sanders, Buttigieg and Warren.

    Everyone else close to zero.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,167
    > @Andrew said:
    > > @Pulpstar said:
    > > https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/
    > >
    > > Biden Is Way Out In Front. Second Place Is Anyone’s Guess.
    > > Warren is rising, and Sanders and O’Rourke are falling.
    > >
    >
    >
    > He really is - that's quite a lead. In a field of so many candidates he might end up running away with it from there.

    He got a boost from the announcement but that will wane, especially if more allegations come out and Sanders and Warren are closer than nationally in the key early states of Iowa and New Hampshire
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    > @Andrew said:
    > > @Pulpstar said:
    > > https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/
    > >
    > > Biden Is Way Out In Front. Second Place Is Anyone’s Guess.
    > > Warren is rising, and Sanders and O’Rourke are falling.
    > >
    >
    >
    > He really is - that's quite a lead. In a field of so many candidates he might end up running away with it from there.

    I've been consistently bullish on him, he's seemed to ride out his metoo nonsense from earlier well too.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Anecdotal... My <i>very</i> Corbynite friend announced he'd never vote Labouyr again today.
  • > @justin124 said:
    > > @SandyRentool said:
    > > > @justin124 said:
    > > > > @SandyRentool said:
    > > > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > > > https://twitter.com/MickWalsh63/status/1123295308161720320
    > > > >
    > > > > What is significant is that he's voting Green not ChUK.
    > > >
    > > > He should still face expulsion though.
    > >
    > > I guess I should too then.
    >
    > I believe that a member of any political party who reveals in public a clear intention to vote for a political opponent has to accept that the forfeiture of membership is the cost of such action. I recall an exchange on here a months back between Big G and Hyufd in which the latter was critical of Big G's decision to vote Labour in 1997 despite being a Tory party member. My sympathies were very much with Hyufd on this point - as someone who ceased to be a Labour member at the end of 1996 because I felt unable to support Blair's programme. Having done that, I felt able to please myself - and did not vote Labour again at a Parliamentary election until 2015.Had I not done that and advocated support for another party's candidate, I would have expected to face expulsion.

    Just to correct you Justin. I was not a member when I voted for Blair
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @Andrew said:
    > > > @Pulpstar said:
    > > > https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/
    > > >
    > > > Biden Is Way Out In Front. Second Place Is Anyone’s Guess.
    > > > Warren is rising, and Sanders and O’Rourke are falling.
    > > >
    > >
    > >
    > > He really is - that's quite a lead. In a field of so many candidates he might end up running away with it from there.
    >
    > He got a boost from the announcement but that will wane, especially if more allegations come out and Sanders and Warren are closer than nationally in the key early states of Iowa and New Hampshire

    Who are you backing ?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Is it tomorrow we find out whether there's going to be a by election in Peterborough?
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    > @Stark_Dawning said:
    > > @SandyRentool said:
    > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > https://twitter.com/MickWalsh63/status/1123295308161720320
    > >
    > > What is significant is that he's voting Green not ChUK.
    >
    > He regards himself as pro-EU but Hard Left? That’s probably a significant niche, though Jezz is unlikely to be aware of it.
    >
    ____

    There were quite a few people with Momentum banners on the 23.03.19 PV march in London. Jon Lansman, the Momentum founder, is pro-EU.

    As long as you don't want a siege economy with import and exchange controls - this was the left's aim in 1975 - what's wrong with being in the EU?

    Diane Abbott is pro-EU. The late Paul Flynn (a.k.a. 'the thinking man's Denis Skinner') was pro-EU. So is Clive Lewis.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > Anecdotal... My <i>very</i> Corbynite friend announced he'd never vote Labouyr again today.
    >

    What was the final straw?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > Is it tomorrow we find out whether there's going to be a by election in Peterborough?

    Yes. Read the earlier thread
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,167
    edited April 2019
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > @Andrew said:
    > > > > @Pulpstar said:
    > > > > https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/
    > > > >
    > > > > Biden Is Way Out In Front. Second Place Is Anyone’s Guess.
    > > > > Warren is rising, and Sanders and O’Rourke are falling.
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > He really is - that's quite a lead. In a field of so many candidates he might end up running away with it from there.
    > >
    > > He got a boost from the announcement but that will wane, especially if more allegations come out and Sanders and Warren are closer than nationally in the key early states of Iowa and New Hampshire
    >
    > Who are you backing ?

    I still think Sanders will win Iowa and New Hampshire and the nomination, I narrowly favour Trump for the general election though
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Apparently jezfest 2 is officially off....i am sure we are all gutted.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    So let's say May and Corbyn agreed a Brexit deal tomorrow, and let's assume they have the votes combined to pass it. Wouldn't we still have to have EU elections, or can both UK and EU Parliaments pass something in time?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    > @TOPPING said:
    > That's weird. Consecutive posts by @RobD where one was OK and the other wasn't.
    >
    > (And top trolling by @Sunil_Prasannan.)
    >
    > I swing both ways. :smiley:
    >
    > More seriously, I switched to the vanillacommunity site which is less broken.
    >
    > Now it makes sense. That would also explain why mine is working.
    >
    > I don't understand why everyone doesn't use the vanilla site. It's so much better and phone-friendly and you get the most recent at the bottom so catching up on threads is easy and intuitive.

    It's because I've been coming to this site for a decade and a half, the web address is seared into my neurons and I'm a luddite who doesn't like change.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited April 2019

    > @Stark_Dawning said:

    > > @SandyRentool said:

    > > > @Scott_P said:

    > > >



    > >

    > > What is significant is that he's voting Green not ChUK.

    >

    > He regards himself as pro-EU but Hard Left? That’s probably a significant niche, though Jezz is unlikely to be aware of it.

    >

    ____



    There were quite a few people with Momentum banners on the 23.03.19 PV march in London. Jon Lansman, the Momentum founder, is pro-EU.



    As long as you don't want a siege economy with import and exchange controls - this was the left's aim in 1975 - what's wrong with being in the EU?



    Diane Abbott is pro-EU. The late Paul Flynn (a.k.a. 'the thinking man's Denis Skinner') was pro-EU. So is Clive Lewis.
    Part of the reason our conference policy included the option of a public vote was because of pressure from momentum grassroots as well as general Labour member pressure. The overlap between Corbyn supporter and remainer is pretty high.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,703
    What's happened to PB blockquotes?!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    > @MikeSmithson said:
    > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > Is it tomorrow we find out whether there's going to be a by election in Peterborough?
    >
    > Yes. Read the earlier thread

    Thanks Mike.

    I missed the morning thread today. :)
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    What's happened to PB blockquotes?!

    The luddites have taken over the asylum.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    > @Quincel said:
    > So let's say May and Corbyn agreed a Brexit deal tomorrow, and let's assume they have the votes combined to pass it. Wouldn't we still have to have EU elections, or can both UK and EU Parliaments pass something in time?

    Those are some crazy assumptions.

    But I thought there were some thinking that since the MEPs don't take up their seats right away we could technically not have the elections without it compromising any of their decisions, but that sounded like wishful thinking, I assume we have no choice now, which is another reason why no resolution will come soon.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    > @Benpointer said:
    > What's happened to PB blockquotes?!

    I blame brexit....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    > @williamglenn said:
    > twitter.com/sturdyalex/status/1123337701380558850?s=21

    And it has taken him this long.....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,703
    > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > > @Benpointer said:
    > > What's happened to PB blockquotes?!
    >
    > I blame brexit....

    What Brexit?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    > @TGOHF said:
    > Goodbye Con party.
    >
    > https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1123333794730250241

    The whole point of the negotiations to get a deal passed was to give in on something. Either that's worth it because otherwise no Brexit might happen, or it is a price too high/no deal Brexit can still happen, either way the caving in would be no surprise.

    I'm sure the Tories would get a pasting in locals and the Euros, but I'm not sure how they avoid that at this point. So the question is long term - if we did actually exit, however softly, how many would still be utterly furious? After all, to the ERGers Mays' deal was too soft, and yet while she was pushing it the Tory polling was fine.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    > @williamglenn said:
    > https://twitter.com/sturdyalex/status/1123337701380558850?s=21

    LOL @ all these lefties only just noticing Corbyn's a eurosceptic of 40 years standing? :D
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    > @Benpointer said:
    > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > > > @Benpointer said:
    > > > What's happened to PB blockquotes?!
    > >
    > > I blame brexit....
    >
    > What Brexit?

    More like what blockquotes....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,703
    > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > > @Benpointer said:
    > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > > > > @Benpointer said:
    > > > > What's happened to PB blockquotes?!
    > > >
    > > > I blame brexit....
    > >
    > > What Brexit?
    >
    > More like what blockquotes....

    Fair point
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > > @williamglenn said:
    > > https://twitter.com/sturdyalex/status/1123337701380558850?s=21
    >
    > LOL @ all these lefties only just noticing Corbyn's a eurosceptic of 40 years standing? :D

    Even if we accept that Corbyn did indeed vote Remain he has at the very least been officially accepting that we do Brexit for quite some time, and shown plenty of reluctance in changing to a position where Remain becomes easy, so it is pretty darn silly of people to only now think he is tacitly supporting 'the far right Brexit project', since supporting Brexit of some kind has been policy.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    > @Quincel said:
    > So let's say May and Corbyn agreed a Brexit deal tomorrow, and let's assume they have the votes combined to pass it. Wouldn't we still have to have EU elections, or can both UK and EU Parliaments pass something in time?

    I think the EU elections will have to happen now but they're hoping we can be out before UK MEPs take their seats.

    Personally I can't see a May/Corbyn deal passing the Commons.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    > @williamglenn said:
    > https://twitter.com/sturdyalex/status/1123337701380558850?s=21

    And in this damange to his brand, who will they vote for instead and risk, even now, a Tory government in any election?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    May should definitely agree the Customs deal, if that is what it is, with Corbyn. It hurts Labour more than the Tories I think.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Let's hope Labour get absolutely battered on Thursday.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,703
    > @kle4 said:
    > > @TGOHF said:
    > > Goodbye Con party.
    > >
    > > https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1123333794730250241
    >
    > The whole point of the negotiations to get a deal passed was to give in on something. Either that's worth it because otherwise no Brexit might happen, or it is a price too high/no deal Brexit can still happen, either way the caving in would be no surprise.
    >
    > I'm sure the Tories would get a pasting in locals and the Euros, but I'm not sure how they avoid that at this point. So the question is long term - if we did actually exit, however softly, how many would still be utterly furious? After all, to the ERGers Mays' deal was too soft, and yet while she was pushing it the Tory polling was fine.

    I think that's right but isn't the problem that if May's deal gets passed the government likely falls on a VoNC as the DUP and various ERG hardline nutters throw their toys out of the pram?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    The Newport rally seems to have been a success for the Brexit Party.

    https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/1123300637456961539?s=21
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > > @Quincel said:
    > > So let's say May and Corbyn agreed a Brexit deal tomorrow, and let's assume they have the votes combined to pass it. Wouldn't we still have to have EU elections, or can both UK and EU Parliaments pass something in time?
    >
    > I think the EU elections will have to happen now but they're hoping we can be out before UK MEPs take their seats.
    >
    > Personally I can't see a May/Corbyn deal passing the Commons.

    If both front benches combined can't pass something then where the hell do we go ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > May should definitely agree the Customs deal, if that is what it is, with Corbyn. It hurts Labour more than the Tories I think.

    Problem is, Seamus will find a way out of the deal, saying the customs union is not quite the perfect one the toiling workers of Winchester want.
This discussion has been closed.