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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So Team Corbyn decide to take a massive gamble and IGNORE LAB voters
Corbyn and Milne's big gamble: Ignoring the LAB voters who think Brexit was wrong. How LAB voters view Brexit from YouGov pic.twitter.com/o9s38YB2Jv
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First.
Of course they ignore them. They're irrelevancies who get in the way of the ideology.
And the ideology always wins.0 -
Most voters aren't very political (as discussed on the previous thread), and still vote in quite a tribal way. So it's difficult to predict what will happen as far as the Labour vote in concerned.0
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Not in the least bit deliberately misleading - they’ve decided to follow Labour Party policy that was agreed at the last conference0
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Yes I agree. The Labour position is all a bit subtle. I'm not sure I understand it myself and I'm paying attention.AndyJS said:Most voters aren't very political (as discussed on the previous thread), and still vote in quite a tribal way. So it's difficult to predict what will happen as far as the Labour vote in concerned.
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You've got to admire Corbyn, in a way. Having completely failed to trash Labour with a bizarre uncosted manifesto, or his support for mass murder, or his unabashed anti-Semitism, he hasn't given up. He's still trying to find new and inventive ways to piss off the majority of Labour voters.AndyJS said:Most voters aren't very political (as discussed on the previous thread), and still vote in quite a tribal way. So it's difficult to predict what will happen as far as the Labour vote in concerned.
If this is as unsuccessful as the rest he might be PM in three months.0 -
Clearly Labour ignore all the polling for the last 18 months and decide to chase a small minority of voters . It’s akin to the Tories putting a second vote and remain in their EU election manifesto , in terms of idiocy .
The 25 or so Labour MPs against a second vote are now more important than the 200 who support it , Corbyn is also ignoring the vast majority of the membership.
If Brexit doesn’t happen till October then a leadership challenge is needed to remove Corbyn and find someone who will reflect the party on the EU .
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I'm getting bored now waiting for both Labour and the Conservatives to properly split. They know they want to...1
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Thinking Brexit is wrong in hindsight does not necessarily mean you want another referendum. It would be likely to cause more division, would be seen as undemocratic by many, and a referendum might end up with no deal which is the worst outcome and extremely unlikely to be delivered by parliament.
Or you might be a cynical Labour supporter who sees Brexit as an opportunity to do maximum damage to the Tories, which you prefer to a referendum.0 -
Because that worked so well last time. What was it that Watson (probably) said just beforehand? 'If he wins a leadership contest we'll be left looking not only unelectable but fucking stupid.'nico67 said:If Brexit doesn’t happen till October then a leadership challenge is needed to remove Corbyn and find someone who will reflect the party on the EU .
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Hilarious.dkeeling said:Not in the least bit deliberately misleading - they’ve decided to follow Labour Party policy that was agreed at the last conference
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Why would anyone be surprised. Labour voters in areas like the NorthEast, Birmingham, Wales, South Humberside didn’t vote Remain or think Brexit was wrong. Not all comrades are equal in Labour.0
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It's not a gamble!
They will go with Ref2 if there is a pre Brexit GE and they calculate at that time that it will work for them electorally.
To make the big pivot now for the Euros would be plain dumb. It would lock them down prematurely and the potential upside - winning the Euros - is unexciting in the extreme.
There is a reason why Tom Watson is the deputy leader.0 -
FPT:
@AlastairMeeks said:
"I fear that @Cyclefree may have strong opinions about this:
http://www.ansa.it/canale_terraegusto/notizie/in_breve/2019/04/29/mi-mette-il-parmigiano-sul-pesce-ma-lo-chef-si-rifiuta_5d05b448-db7e-48e5-a52f-44293b3dfd4f.html"
Parmesan on a fish dish as part of a sauce - maybe. Depends what it's like. Generally, I like my fish simply cooked. This smacks of over-complication but until I've tried it I will reserve judgment.
Parmesan sprinkled on pasta with seafood (calamari etc): an absolute no-no.
Quite as revolting and a culinary faux pas as, well, you know what.1 -
Corbyn has always wanted to leave the EU. And the Tories destroyed. He senses an opportunity to do both. And he's taking it.
Why should he care what Labour voters think? Too many of them - like Labour MPs giving ultimatums to Corbyn about stuff he has to do, which he cheerfully ignores - continue to vote Labour regardless. So they get taken for granted.0 -
> @dkeeling said:
> Not in the least bit deliberately misleading - they’ve decided to follow Labour Party policy that was agreed at the last conference
The problem is that many ex-Labour voters/members like myself don't trust Corbyn and the unelected group that surrounds him to do it. They will always worm out of it somehow.0 -
Let's see if those voters feel ignored. I'm betting they don't, rightly or not. Corbyn's risky strategy seems to have worked to date, why won't it now?0
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> @ydoethur said:
> If Brexit doesn’t happen till October then a leadership challenge is needed to remove Corbyn and find someone who will reflect the party on the EU .
>
> Because that worked so well last time. What was it that Watson (probably) said just beforehand? 'If he wins a leadership contest we'll be left looking not only unelectable but fucking stupid.'
Corbyn went missing during the EU ref campaign and he’s now completely ignoring the vast majority of Labour voters . He needs to go . And Labour need to find someone who can appeal to older voters . Clearly Seamus and the rest of the cabal don’t seem to be able to cope with basic maths . The Tories can’t be beaten unless Labour reduce the huge gap in over 65s voting intention . There are simply not enough younger voters to overcome the over 65s will go and vote even in a hurricane !0 -
We have a primary poll with Warren in 2nd.
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2617
Biden - 38%
Warren - 12%
Sanders - 11%
Mayor Pete - 10%
Harris - 8%
O'Rourke - 5%0 -
Corbyn and his cohorts are betting that the locals don't matter. All that matters is keeping enough voters behind Labour to win a General Election. That is all he cares about. The Long March is the project0
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> @Cyclefree said:
> Corbyn has always wanted to leave the EU. And the Tories destroyed. He senses an opportunity to do both. And he's taking it.
>
> Why should he care what Labour voters think? Too many of them - like Labour MPs giving ultimatums to Corbyn about stuff he has to do, which he cheerfully ignores - continue to vote Labour regardless. So they get taken for granted.
Whether one takes a more charitable view of Corbyn and his intentions, the final point is the key - the MPs who have stayed after Tig clearly are going nowhere. Most of the activists and voters don't seem to be going anywhere either, and if they are, it is managable as the Tories are in more acute trouble. If it is a gamble, it is one he can afford to take.0 -
> @solarflare said:
> I'm getting bored now waiting for both Labour and the Conservatives to properly split. They know they want to...
We got close with the Tiggers, but it may be as far as it goes, with both diminishing and full of internal rancour, but not actually splitting any further. Though it has to be said the Tory problems are more immediate, as Labour at least have further means of staving off confrontation, as today's actions demonstrate.0 -
> @Cyclefree said:
> FPT:
>
>
> @AlastairMeeks said:
> "I fear that @Cyclefree may have strong opinions about this:
>
> http://www.ansa.it/canale_terraegusto/notizie/in_breve/2019/04/29/mi-mette-il-parmigiano-sul-pesce-ma-lo-chef-si-rifiuta_5d05b448-db7e-48e5-a52f-44293b3dfd4f.html"
>
> Parmesan on a fish dish as part of a sauce - maybe. Depends what it's like. Generally, I like my fish simply cooked. This smacks of over-complication but until I've tried it I will reserve judgment.
>
> Parmesan sprinkled on pasta with seafood (calamari etc): an absolute no-no.
>
> Quite as revolting and a culinary faux pas as, well, you know what.
>
Beans-on-Naan
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> @AndyJS said:
> Most voters aren't very political (as discussed on the previous thread), and still vote in quite a tribal way. So it's difficult to predict what will happen as far as the Labour vote in concerned.
Surely your first sentence contradicts the first? People are very tribal, so it is quite predictable what their vote will do.0 -
Satirists having a whale of a time with this one.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
> @ydoethur said:
> https://twitter.com/mattcartoonist/status/1123270863426605058
>
>
>
> Satirists having a whale of a time with this one.
It's their porpoise.0 -
> @kinabalu said:
> It's not a gamble!
>
> They will go with Ref2 if there is a pre Brexit GE and they calculate at that time that it will work for them electorally.
>
> To make the big pivot now for the Euros would be plain dumb. It would lock them down prematurely and the potential upside - winning the Euros - is unexciting in the extreme.
>
> There is a reason why Tom Watson is the deputy leader.
Yes, that's what I think. The timing - 2 days before local elections - was all wrong. There's a time when embracing a referendum as the only option will be the natural thing to do - when May has finally run out of road or manages to force a crap deal through. At the moment, it would just look partisan - and the hardcore Remainers (who are starting to annoy me, and I'm a passionate EUrophile) would instantly switch to demanding that Corbyn pledges to supporting Remain in any referendum.0 -
Well, really that's just a poll with Biden first and everyone else with a runners-up medal.Quincel said:We have a primary poll with Warren in 2nd.
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2617
Biden - 38%
Warren - 12%
Sanders - 11%
Mayor Pete - 10%
Harris - 8%
O'Rourke - 5%0 -
Is there something strange going on with blockquote this evening?0
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Sticking with conference policy is the best option, those who have been saying the conference position was for a 2nd referendum should be happy we are sticking with it.
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if you have 15 hours to spare and nothing better to do n Bank Holiday Monday then BBC Parliament will be re showing Election night and following morning from May 1979 - at least there will be some good news for the Tories0
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No?ydoethur said:Is there something strange going on with blockquote this evening?
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It does look like there's something fishy going on with other people's posts.1
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I'm not sure whether you're referring to my awesome punning or this weirdness with extra lines and blockquote not taking properly.brokenwheel said:It does look like there's something fishy going on with other people's posts.
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> @NickPalmer said:
> > @kinabalu said:
> > It's not a gamble!
> >
> > They will go with Ref2 if there is a pre Brexit GE and they calculate at that time that it will work for them electorally.
> >
> > To make the big pivot now for the Euros would be plain dumb. It would lock them down prematurely and the potential upside - winning the Euros - is unexciting in the extreme.
> >
> > There is a reason why Tom Watson is the deputy leader.
>
> Yes, that's what I think. The timing - 2 days before local elections - was all wrong. There's a time when embracing a referendum as the only option will be the natural thing to do - when May has finally run out of road or manages to force a crap deal through. At the moment, it would just look partisan - and the hardcore Remainers (who are starting to annoy me, and I'm a passionate EUrophile) would instantly switch to demanding that Corbyn pledges to supporting Remain in any referendum.
And why would that be a problem for Corbyn since you told us that he told you that he had voted Remain in 2016?0 -
> @Quincel said:
> We have a primary poll with Warren in 2nd.
>
> https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2617
>
> Biden - 38%
> Warren - 12%
> Sanders - 11%
> Mayor Pete - 10%
> Harris - 8%
> O'Rourke - 5%
>
Warren is the dark horse* I think. Probably better for Dem nominee than POTUS, but she does seem to enthuse the base.
*I wouldn't bet mare than a pony though
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I think those two posts by Cyclefree and Nigelb sum up what I was saying about blockquote.0
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That Yougov poll gives no indication as to how important Brexit is to Labour voters. Contrary to what is assumed by the commentariat, other issues will override Brexit for the majority of Labour-inclined supporters - ie even if the vast majority do now prefer Remain, the issue itself is not that important to them.0
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Only an ass bets at those odds.Foxy said:> @Quincel said:
> We have a primary poll with Warren in 2nd.
>
> https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2617
>
> Biden - 38%
> Warren - 12%
> Sanders - 11%
> Mayor Pete - 10%
> Harris - 8%
> O'Rourke - 5%
>
Warren is the dark horse* I think. Probably better for Dem nominee than POTUS, but she does seem to enthuse the base.
*I wouldn't bet mare than a pony though0 -
How can Spurs be 2.16 To Qualify here?0
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ydoethur said:
I'm not sure whether you're referring to my awesome punning or this weirdness with extra lines and blockquote not taking properly.brokenwheel said:It does look like there's something fishy going on with other people's posts.
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But doesn't this look like Labour will eventually support another referendum? Surely the plan must be to say "May wasn't willing to compromise", and then the only thing that can get through parliament will be May's deal subject to a referendum (vs Remain, I assume), and Corbyn would surely have to support Remain in the referendum, anything else would be electoral suicide.
Conversely, the plan for May would be to agree to a Labour-ish deal and make the narrative "Of course, I was always in favour of a Brexit that would safeguard workers' rights and environmental safeguards" and go for all-out attack on the right of her party:
"They were never interested in Brexit except as a means to an end - the end being making it easier for unscrupulous businesses to exploit workers and trash the environment to make a fast buck. They are neither true brexiters nor true conservatives, they are simply wreckers"
She probably hasn't got the persuasive power to make it work, but still worth a try.0 -
Completely unscientifically I tend to assume most of us don't get beyond a headline and therefore the big BBC headline of 'Labour agree Brexit referendum position' is suitably vague that most people can assure themselves it means precisely what they want it to mean.0
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For some reason it's coming through on my iPad as a series of disjointed lines with long breaks in them and since I think it most unlikely several regular posters are somehow screwing it up in inventive fashion simultaneously I was wondering if there was a glitch.Nigelb said:
That we’re incompetent with it ?ydoethur said:I think those two posts by Cyclefree and Nigelb sum up what I was saying about blockquote.
Or were you just admiring our killer puns ?0 -
On Topic a higher percentage think Lab stand for Remain than think CHUK stand for Remain.
So no gamble at all TBH0 -
> @kamski said:
> But doesn't this look like Labour will eventually support another referendum? Surely the plan must be to say "May wasn't willing to compromise", and then the only thing that can get through parliament will be May's deal subject to a referendum (vs Remain, I assume), and Corbyn would surely have to support Remain in the referendum, anything else would be electoral suicide.
>
> Conversely, the plan for May would be to agree to a Labour-ish deal and make the narrative "Of course, I was always in favour of a Brexit that would safeguard workers' rights and environmental safeguards" and go for all-out attack on the right of her party:
> "They were never interested in Brexit except as a means to an end - the end being making it easier for unscrupulous businesses to exploit workers and trash the environment to make a fast buck. They are neither true brexiters nor true conservatives, they are simply wreckers"
> She probably hasn't got the persuasive power to make it work, but still worth a try.
Their objective is to try and be able to say that they might have supported a referendum without ever actually being called upon to do it.0 -
Hmmm?
Have comments been broken?0 -
I wonder if Disqus has improved since the last time PB used it.0
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I've sent an email to Vanilla support.
I'm kinda busy right now, but will look into alternative commenting systems when I have some free time.1 -
Oh yeah, you can now like MY posts.10
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Well they are joint top of the Eredivisie with PSV who Spurs outclassed twice, but I hope you are rightFoxy said:> @isam said:
> How can Spurs be 2.16 To Qualify here?
Ajax seem to struggle to keep clean sheets, but go forward well. I think they are worth a punt on to qualify. It looks a fairly toothless Spurs side, even with home advantage.0 -
If you look at how it is reported on BBC, I don't think it is a risk. To the vast majority who aren't engaged, it makes it sound to Brexit supporters like they don't really want to no go through with Brexit and to Remainers like they will eventually get their 2nd vote.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-480999010 -
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> @AmpfieldAndy said:
> Why would anyone be surprised. Labour voters in areas like the NorthEast, Birmingham, Wales, South Humberside didn’t vote Remain or think Brexit was wrong. Not all comrades are equal in Labour.
That's not necessarily true.
Imagine that you're in NE Seat which voted 60:40 for Leave, and which the Labour Party won with 50% of the vote in 2017.
It's quite possible that the majority of Labour voters come from the 40% of voters in the constituency who voted Remain.
It's why the Labour Party's policy of not really having a position (other than to oppose everything the Conservative Party does) is so clever. They're opposed to THIS Brexit. And they will be opposed to all actual Brexits, while being obviously in favour of Brexit.0 -
"Hold my beer"0
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Jezza's socialist utopia get worse by the day....absolutely shocking scenes.
Protesters are run over by Maduro's armoured vehicles as gunfire breaks out, sending civilians running for cover after Juan Guaido calls for military uprising, sparking clashes with pro-regime troops
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6975871/Venezuelas-Juan-Guaido-calls-military-revolt-final-phase-overthrowing-President-Maduro.html0 -
What's the difference between Stalin and Maduro?FrancisUrquhart said:Jezza's socialist utopia get worse by the day....absolutely shocking scenes.
Protesters are run over by Maduro's armoured vehicles as gunfire breaks out, sending civilians running for cover after Juan Guaido calls for military uprising, sparking clashes with pro-regime troops
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6975871/Venezuelas-Juan-Guaido-calls-military-revolt-final-phase-overthrowing-President-Maduro.html
One is a pseudo socialist and swindler with a ridiculous moustache following a revolutionary leader who for all his lurid claims left the country in an even worse mess than he found it.
Stalin, with all his many faults, was not out to line his own pockets.0 -
That's weird. Consecutive posts by @RobD where one was OK and the other wasn't.
(And top trolling by @Sunil_Prasannan.)1 -
Spurs doing a Spurs....0
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Pineapple pizza!
And a Like button. Oh happy day!1 -
I swing both ways.ydoethur said:That's weird. Consecutive posts by @RobD where one was OK and the other wasn't.
(And top trolling by @Sunil_Prasannan.)
More seriously, I switched to the vanillacommunity site which is less broken.0 -
Now it makes sense. That would also explain why mine is working.RobD said:
I swing both ways.ydoethur said:That's weird. Consecutive posts by @RobD where one was OK and the other wasn't.
(And top trolling by @Sunil_Prasannan.)
More seriously, I switched to the vanillacommunity site which is less broken.0 -
Don’t encourage him !ydoethur said:That's weird. Consecutive posts by @RobD where one was OK and the other wasn't.
(And top trolling by @Sunil_Prasannan.)
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The key thing about the good Dr Prasannan is he has never needed encouragement.Nigelb said:
Don’t encourage him !ydoethur said:That's weird. Consecutive posts by @RobD where one was OK and the other wasn't.
(And top trolling by @Sunil_Prasannan.)
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Speaking of trolling, Biden might be an old timer, but he appears to have an excellent sense (or his advisors do) of how to needle Trump:
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/441301-biden-if-trump-blocks-investigations-congress-has-no-choice-but-to-1 -
This is one of the best displays of football I have ever seen0
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No. He was just interested in wielding God-level power over millions...ydoethur said:
What's the difference between Stalin and Maduro?FrancisUrquhart said:Jezza's socialist utopia get worse by the day....absolutely shocking scenes.
Protesters are run over by Maduro's armoured vehicles as gunfire breaks out, sending civilians running for cover after Juan Guaido calls for military uprising, sparking clashes with pro-regime troops
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6975871/Venezuelas-Juan-Guaido-calls-military-revolt-final-phase-overthrowing-President-Maduro.html
One is a pseudo socialist and swindler with a ridiculous moustache following a revolutionary leader who for all his lurid claims left the country in an even worse mess than he found it.
Stalin, with all his many faults, was not out to line his own pockets.
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I don’t think having a feature to like posts is a good thing.8
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I don't understand why everyone doesn't use the vanilla site. It's so much better and phone-friendly and you get the most recent at the bottom so catching up on threads is easy and intuitive.ydoethur said:
Now it makes sense. That would also explain why mine is working.RobD said:
I swing both ways.ydoethur said:That's weird. Consecutive posts by @RobD where one was OK and the other wasn't.
(And top trolling by @Sunil_Prasannan.)
More seriously, I switched to the vanillacommunity site which is less broken.1 -
That was one of the many faults I had in mind.viewcode said:
No. He was just interested in wielding God-level power over millions...ydoethur said:
What's the difference between Stalin and Maduro?FrancisUrquhart said:Jezza's socialist utopia get worse by the day....absolutely shocking scenes.
Protesters are run over by Maduro's armoured vehicles as gunfire breaks out, sending civilians running for cover after Juan Guaido calls for military uprising, sparking clashes with pro-regime troops
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6975871/Venezuelas-Juan-Guaido-calls-military-revolt-final-phase-overthrowing-President-Maduro.html
One is a pseudo socialist and swindler with a ridiculous moustache following a revolutionary leader who for all his lurid claims left the country in an even worse mess than he found it.
Stalin, with all his many faults, was not out to line his own pockets.
But then, so did Chavez.0 -
Ajax look a bloody good team, but will concede, I think. Their away form in the CL has been good.FrancisUrquhart said:Spurs doing a Spurs....
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In fact I'd go so far as to say the PB vanilla presentation on a mobile phone is one of life's small joys.0
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Do I not like that?1
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And it tells you how many posts have been made since you last looked, and takes you to where you left off. Miles betterTOPPING said:
I don't understand why everyone doesn't use the vanilla site. It's so much better and phone-friendly and you get the most recent at the bottom so catching up on threads is easy and intuitive.ydoethur said:
Now it makes sense. That would also explain why mine is working.RobD said:
I swing both ways.ydoethur said:That's weird. Consecutive posts by @RobD where one was OK and the other wasn't.
(And top trolling by @Sunil_Prasannan.)
More seriously, I switched to the vanillacommunity site which is less broken.
In fact one of the worst things about being banned is you have to use the other system!0 -
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Yes and yes and I wouldn't know. Yet.isam said:
And it tells you how many posts have been made since you last looked, and takes you to where you left off. Miles betterTOPPING said:
I don't understand why everyone doesn't use the vanilla site. It's so much better and phone-friendly and you get the most recent at the bottom so catching up on threads is easy and intuitive.ydoethur said:
Now it makes sense. That would also explain why mine is working.RobD said:
I swing both ways.ydoethur said:That's weird. Consecutive posts by @RobD where one was OK and the other wasn't.
(And top trolling by @Sunil_Prasannan.)
More seriously, I switched to the vanillacommunity site which is less broken.
In fact one of the worst things about being banned is you have to use the other system!
Then again I think Radiohead are very over rated.0
This discussion has been closed.