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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bye-bye by-elections? Part 2. MPs who resigned their seats and stood in the ensuing by-election
In Part 1, I discussed how the reasons for triggering by-elections have changed since 1918. In Part 2, I will discuss in more detail the phenomenon (or lack) of MPs resigning and re-contesting their seats over principle or when they change party allegiance.
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1st0
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How did Goldsmith manage to win his seat back in such a pro remain area at the last election?0
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That isn't true though. Remainers have shown time and time again they will vote Labour no matter how much Labour back Brexit. They will be strung along repeatedly as long as they get a few "leave everything on the table" or "remain open to". It makes perfect sense for Labour to support Brexit while throwing breadcrumbs to gullible Remainers.nico67 said:
The Remain luvvies as you like to call them make up a large majority of all Labour voters , that includes in seats in the north . If Corbyn doesn’t back a second vote Labour will implode completely .Sandpit said:
Much as it pains me to say it, Corbyn’s right here. Holding on to more seats in the midlands and north of England is way more important than getting massive majorities in London among the hardcore Remain luvvies.HYUFD said:
Labour Leavers now amount to barely 25% on a good day . Any party ignoring 75% of its voters is going to be in big trouble .0 -
Perhaps true, but this perfectly illustrates why parties hate centrist splits on binary issues. Our centrist parties cannot solve them, and non-centrists are all minority extremes. And by the way you can't afford of course to alienate the 75%, but in all the seats that matter - the marginals - you cannot possibly afford to alienate the 25% either.JackJack said:
That isn't true though. Remainers have shown time and time again they will vote Labour no matter how much Labour back Brexit. They will be strung along repeatedly as long as they get a few "leave everything on the table" or "remain open to". It makes perfect sense for Labour to support Brexit while throwing breadcrumbs to gullible Remainers.nico67 said:
The Remain luvvies as you like to call them make up a large majority of all Labour voters , that includes in seats in the north . If Corbyn doesn’t back a second vote Labour will implode completely .Sandpit said:
Much as it pains me to say it, Corbyn’s right here. Holding on to more seats in the midlands and north of England is way more important than getting massive majorities in London among the hardcore Remain luvvies.HYUFD said:
Labour Leavers now amount to barely 25% on a good day . Any party ignoring 75% of its voters is going to be in big trouble .
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All the Lib Dems went off to Vauxhall to campaign against Hoey.Artist said:How did Goldsmith manage to win his seat back in such a pro remain area at the last election?
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Katharine Stewart Murray is an interesting woman. Duchess of Atholl in her spare time, militant *opponent* of women's suffrage, first Scottish woman MP. The circumstances of her resigning were: "She resigned the Conservative Whip first in 1935 over the India Bill and the "national-socialist tendency" of the government's domestic policy. Resuming the Whip, she resigned it again in 1938 in opposition to Neville Chamberlain's policy of appeasement of Adolf Hitler and to the Anglo-Italian agreement. According to her biography, A Working Partnership she was then deselected by her local party. She took Stewardship of the Chiltern Hundreds on 28 November 1938. She stood unsuccessfully in the subsequent by-election as an Independent candidate."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katharine_Stewart-Murray,_Duchess_of_Atholl
Interesting article thanks Sunil0 -
Perhaps the myth of Theresa, although it exploded elsewhere spectacularly, still lived on in Richmond Park till quite late in the day. I can think of no other explanation.Artist said:How did Goldsmith manage to win his seat back in such a pro remain area at the last election?
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You can actually. LAB voters care far about Brexit than CON ones and in any case most LAB voters were for Remain even in areas like Stoke which overall was 70% Leave.algarkirk said:
Perhaps true, but this perfectly illustrates why parties hate centrist splits on binary issues. Our centrist parties cannot solve them, and non-centrists are all minority extremes. And by the way you can't afford of course to alienate the 75%, but in all the seats that matter - the marginals - you cannot possibly afford to alienate the 25% either.JackJack said:
That isn't true though. Remainers have shown time and time again they will vote Labour no matter how much Labour back Brexit. They will be strung along repeatedly as long as they get a few "leave everything on the table" or "remain open to". It makes perfect sense for Labour to support Brexit while throwing breadcrumbs to gullible Remainers.nico67 said:
The Remain luvvies as you like to call them make up a large majority of all Labour voters , that includes in seats in the north . If Corbyn doesn’t back a second vote Labour will implode completely .Sandpit said:
Much as it pains me to say it, Corbyn’s right here. Holding on to more seats in the midlands and north of England is way more important than getting massive majorities in London among the hardcore Remain luvvies.HYUFD said:
Labour Leavers now amount to barely 25% on a good day . Any party ignoring 75% of its voters is going to be in big trouble .
Your argument is straw-clutching.0 -
Variety of reasons:Artist said:How did Goldsmith manage to win his seat back in such a pro remain area at the last election?
1. It's ultimately a very well-heeled area where the there was a preference for a May Government over a Corbyn one, notwithstanding a protest in 2016.
2. Labour supporters felt it was safe to return "home" after voting tactically in 2016 - Goldsmith's vote share was identical in 2016 and 2017, but Labour recovered a bit at LD expense.
3. Quite a lot of Remainers were fairly sanguine in 2017. A mood of, "I don't like it, but give May a reasonable majority and she'll probably negotiate a pragmatic, soft exit and we can all get on with our lives." The anger has grown since as it's descended into farce. So they put down a bit of a marker in Richmond in 2016 but were ultimately willing to give May her majority (so they thought) in 2017.
4. "Oh, but he's such a lovely boy!" Don't underestimate this element - there's a hardcore 20% who'd say, if he was filmed strangling a kitten on East Sheen High Street, that the kitten must have done something horrid to upset dear Zachary, and strangling is too good for it if anything.
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LAB voters decided not to vote tactically. His majority went down from 23k at GE2015 to just 45 at GE2017.Artist said:How did Goldsmith manage to win his seat back in such a pro remain area at the last election?
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I wouldn't count on Remainers backing Labour in the Euros, it is a free hit. A GE is a different kettle of fish, with other issues in play.JackJack said:
That isn't true though. Remainers have shown time and time again they will vote Labour no matter how much Labour back Brexit. They will be strung along repeatedly as long as they get a few "leave everything on the table" or "remain open to". It makes perfect sense for Labour to support Brexit while throwing breadcrumbs to gullible Remainers.nico67 said:
The Remain luvvies as you like to call them make up a large majority of all Labour voters , that includes in seats in the north . If Corbyn doesn’t back a second vote Labour will implode completely .Sandpit said:
Much as it pains me to say it, Corbyn’s right here. Holding on to more seats in the midlands and north of England is way more important than getting massive majorities in London among the hardcore Remain luvvies.HYUFD said:
Labour Leavers now amount to barely 25% on a good day . Any party ignoring 75% of its voters is going to be in big trouble .0 -
I wouldn't count on Remainers backing Labour in the Euros, it is a free hit. A GE is a different kettle of fish, with other issues in play.JackJack said:
That isn't true though. Remainers have shown time and time again they will vote Labour no matter how much Labour back Brexit. They will be strung along repeatedly as long as they get a few "leave everything on the table" or "remain open to". It makes perfect sense for Labour to support Brexit while throwing breadcrumbs to gullible Remainers.nico67 said:
The Remain luvvies as you like to call them make up a large majority of all Labour voters , that includes in seats in the north . If Corbyn doesn’t back a second vote Labour will implode completely .Sandpit said:
Much as it pains me to say it, Corbyn’s right here. Holding on to more seats in the midlands and north of England is way more important than getting massive majorities in London among the hardcore Remain luvvies.HYUFD said:
Labour Leavers now amount to barely 25% on a good day . Any party ignoring 75% of its voters is going to be in big trouble .0 -
I'd agree that even in the northern constituencies I live and work in, a fair proportion of the Labour voters amongst the 'remainer luvvies' - typically public-sector, relatively higher pay and education. My anecdote would suggest their commitment to Corbyn and Labour, or opposition to the Tories is hard to unpick from a mix of a anti Tory prejudice, romanticised student political worship of Corbyn as the Guevara like poster boy, or desire to remain. As such, I'd guess labour nailing their colours to leave would lose them some of what is a fairly sizeable cohort, probably to lib dems or green, but some would stick by saint Jeremy.JackJack said:
That isn't true though. Remainers have shown time and time again they will vote Labour no matter how much Labour back Brexit. They will be strung along repeatedly as long as they get a few "leave everything on the table" or "remain open to". It makes perfect sense for Labour to support Brexit while throwing breadcrumbs to gullible Remainers.nico67 said:
The Remain luvvies as you like to call them make up a large majority of all Labour voters , that includes in seats in the north . If Corbyn doesn’t back a second vote Labour will implode completely .Sandpit said:
Much as it pains me to say it, Corbyn’s right here. Holding on to more seats in the midlands and north of England is way more important than getting massive majorities in London among the hardcore Remain luvvies.HYUFD said:
Labour Leavers now amount to barely 25% on a good day . Any party ignoring 75% of its voters is going to be in big trouble .
The traditional core labour w-c vote is theoretically bigger, and a lot of it is stubbornly anti Tory, but much of that is already suspicious of Corbyn, and is certainly pulled towards Brexit, or even others on the right. That said, the point made in another thread about there being no such wwc rings true, e.g. self made tradesmen, etc who have sufficient nous to vote with their pocket against Corbyn's threat to their wealth, but who still hold other views that mean they'd baulk at CHUK - if they've heard of them.0 -
Lays that Leclerc bet.0
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It wouldn't be true to say that they left Richmond to go to Vauxhall, but that probably did draw some people from London who went there rather than a few stops further down on the SW Trains.No_Offence_Alan said:
All the Lib Dems went off to Vauxhall to campaign against Hoey.Artist said:How did Goldsmith manage to win his seat back in such a pro remain area at the last election?
More significantly, I suspect, they failed to pull out of Twickenham with ten days to go. The seat was in the bag by then, but they fought it hard to the wire rather than shifting troops over the bridge. Hindsight is 20/20 of course, and they'd been scarred by 2015. That aspect probably made more of a difference numbers-wise.0 -
Depending on turnout, Labour could still beat the Brexit Party even without hardcore Remainers.Foxy said:
I wouldn't count on Remainers backing Labour in the Euros, it is a free hit. A GE is a different kettle of fish, with other issues in play.JackJack said:
That isn't true though. Remainers have shown time and time again they will vote Labour no matter how much Labour back Brexit. They will be strung along repeatedly as long as they get a few "leave everything on the table" or "remain open to". It makes perfect sense for Labour to support Brexit while throwing breadcrumbs to gullible Remainers.nico67 said:
The Remain luvvies as you like to call them make up a large majority of all Labour voters , that includes in seats in the north . If Corbyn doesn’t back a second vote Labour will implode completely .Sandpit said:
Much as it pains me to say it, Corbyn’s right here. Holding on to more seats in the midlands and north of England is way more important than getting massive majorities in London among the hardcore Remain luvvies.HYUFD said:
Labour Leavers now amount to barely 25% on a good day . Any party ignoring 75% of its voters is going to be in big trouble .0 -
It’s remarkable how Leavers can convince themselves that it would not be fruitful for political parties to pursue a segment of the electorate that all recent polls suggest currently form a majority of the electorate and where there is abundant evidence that many feel passionately about the subject.0
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I suspect they may actually have been one step ahead.Stark_Dawning said:
Perhaps the myth of Theresa, although it exploded elsewhere spectacularly, still lived on in Richmond Park till quite late in the day. I can think of no other explanation.Artist said:How did Goldsmith manage to win his seat back in such a pro remain area at the last election?
Oddly, if May had been heading for a 150 majority by then, I suspect Richmond may have felt safe to go Lib Dem as they had just a few months before.
As it was, by the eve of the election, it was fairly clear May was in free-fall and the issue was whether it'd still be a majority of a few dozen, or something like what transpired. At that stage, I think it would be tempting for some in Richmond to say, "Hmmm, I don't like Brexit a lot, but give her a majority of 50 and she'll do a pragmatic, soft deal". That is, I don't think it was obvious that a slim to non-existent majority made Brexit less likely or a soft Brexit more likely. Indeed, it still isn't - the odds of BOTH no deal and no Brexit are surely much higher than if May had had a reasonable majority to work with.
At that time, Zac was being a bit more coy on his position than he is now (when he rails against Remainers regularly). He was known to be a Leaver, of course, but it was expected he'd broadly fall into line with a negotiated deal (which actually he did on the third vote I think).0 -
Current Labour voters who support Remain like Corbyn, and will stick with him for other reasons, despite his lack of enthusiasm for the EU. The question is whether Labour would gain in net terms by overtly opposing Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:It’s remarkable how Leavers can convince themselves that it would not be fruitful for political parties to pursue a segment of the electorate that all recent polls suggest currently form a majority of the electorate and where there is abundant evidence that many feel passionately about the subject.
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So taking out the en bloc NI ones in 1986, very few of these 'resign and re-stand on principle' by-elections in all of modern British political history. And in recent years just 4 and all of them Conservatives. Does this mean that Conservatives have more principles? I would say not. There must be another explanation.
But hats off in any case to that quartet. Zac Goldsmith, Mark Reckless, Douglas Carswell and - the odd one out for obvious reasons - David Davis.0 -
It is more a question of is it a net gain in the key marginals they need to win a GE. Some slide rule jockey is going to have to answer that as I am fucked if I know. Every percentage point that the polls move to Remain is another turn of the thumbscrew for the Corbyn-Milne symbiote though.Sean_F said:
Current Labour voters who support Remain like Corbyn, and will stick with him for other reasons, despite his lack of enthusiasm for the EU. The question is whether Labour would gain in net terms by overtly opposing Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:It’s remarkable how Leavers can convince themselves that it would not be fruitful for political parties to pursue a segment of the electorate that all recent polls suggest currently form a majority of the electorate and where there is abundant evidence that many feel passionately about the subject.
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Apparently people are just jealous of Milne's youthful looks.Dura_Ace said:
It is more a question of is it a net gain in the key marginals they need to win a GE. Some slide rule jockey is going to have to answer that as I am fucked if I know. Every percentage point that the polls move to Remain is another turn of the thumbscrew for the Corbyn-Milne symbiote though.Sean_F said:
Current Labour voters who support Remain like Corbyn, and will stick with him for other reasons, despite his lack of enthusiasm for the EU. The question is whether Labour would gain in net terms by overtly opposing Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:It’s remarkable how Leavers can convince themselves that it would not be fruitful for political parties to pursue a segment of the electorate that all recent polls suggest currently form a majority of the electorate and where there is abundant evidence that many feel passionately about the subject.
https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/11220904046341447680 -
Eye on the ball Jeremy, eye on the ball.
https://twitter.com/benjaminbutter/status/11220608644698316800 -
Itis impossible to see that photo and not wonder why Jezza is wearing antlers on his head.Theuniondivvie said:Eye on the ball Jeremy, eye on the ball.
https://twitter.com/benjaminbutter/status/11220608644698316800 -
I understand that 35 of the 45 most marginal Tory seats vulnerable to Labour were Leave voting, and 16 of the 25 most vulnerable Labour seats to the Tories were also Leave voting.Dura_Ace said:
It is more a question of is it a net gain in the key marginals they need to win a GE. Some slide rule jockey is going to have to answer that as I am fucked if I know. Every percentage point that the polls move to Remain is another turn of the thumbscrew for the Corbyn-Milne symbiote though.Sean_F said:
Current Labour voters who support Remain like Corbyn, and will stick with him for other reasons, despite his lack of enthusiasm for the EU. The question is whether Labour would gain in net terms by overtly opposing Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:It’s remarkable how Leavers can convince themselves that it would not be fruitful for political parties to pursue a segment of the electorate that all recent polls suggest currently form a majority of the electorate and where there is abundant evidence that many feel passionately about the subject.
That suggests tacking to Leave BUT:
1. This ignores the SNP - part of Labour's route back involves maybe 15 gains in Scotland from the SNP, and tacking Leave makes it MUCH harder.
2. It really isn't as simple as "Leave" and "Remain" seats. Tacking to Leave is perhaps unlikely to help in a seat that voted to Leave by say 55/45... it's not obvious that such a seat would be Leave today, and anyway there's a big Remain vote there who could go to the one of the Remain parties.
On balance, I think Labour's strategy of riding both horses for as long as humanly possible is hazardous but probably the best of a bad set of options.0 -
Yes that is the calculation. Nothing else matters. I think offering Ref2 will work for them but what I think is unlikely to be a factor in the decision.Dura_Ace said:It is more a question of is it a net gain in the key marginals they need to win a GE. Some slide rule jockey is going to have to answer that as I am fucked if I know. Every percentage point that the polls move to Remain is another turn of the thumbscrew for the Corbyn-Milne symbiote though.
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I bet those kids are thinking - which one of us is going to give up our seat for that elderly gentleman.Theuniondivvie said:Eye on the ball Jeremy, eye on the ball.
https://twitter.com/benjaminbutter/status/11220608644698316800 -
Brexit has highlighted the vacuous nature of British politics which has led to the recent spate of resignations and lack of policy. Small wonder no one has triggered a by election to test the patience of the electorate further.
There is no real point to any major British political party with the exception of the SNP. No one really knows what the Tory Party stands for these days. The traditional reasons for voting Tory - pro business, low tax, small state, law and order etc - all disappeared firstly with Cameron and Osborne and now with May and Hammond. May’s attempts to neuter Brexit by making it Brino have failed to command any consensus and have led to Farage’s latest one trick pony of a party. Labour have reverted to an odious cocktail of playing to the politics of greed and envy of others and whose knowledge of Brexit seems limited to how to spell it. Change U.K. and the LD’s are squabbling over who should the party to deny the electorate the result they voted for in the referendum with precious little else to offer.
British politics has degenerated to a sick joke.0 -
There is also good reason to believe that the biggest swing to Remain since 2016 is in coalfield seats, while it is the wealthy county Leavers that are resolute. Things have not been static:SirNorfolkPassmore said:
I understand that 35 of the 45 most marginal Tory seats vulnerable to Labour were Leave voting, and 16 of the 25 most vulnerable Labour seats to the Tories were also Leave voting.Dura_Ace said:
It is more a question of is it a net gain in the key marginals they need to win a GE. Some slide rule jockey is going to have to answer that as I am fucked if I know. Every percentage point that the polls move to Remain is another turn of the thumbscrew for the Corbyn-Milne symbiote though.Sean_F said:
Current Labour voters who support Remain like Corbyn, and will stick with him for other reasons, despite his lack of enthusiasm for the EU. The question is whether Labour would gain in net terms by overtly opposing Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:It’s remarkable how Leavers can convince themselves that it would not be fruitful for political parties to pursue a segment of the electorate that all recent polls suggest currently form a majority of the electorate and where there is abundant evidence that many feel passionately about the subject.
That suggests tacking to Leave BUT:
1. This ignores the SNP - part of Labour's route back involves maybe 15 gains in Scotland from the SNP, and tacking Leave makes it MUCH harder.
2. It really isn't as simple as "Leave" and "Remain" seats. Tacking to Leave is perhaps unlikely to help in a seat that voted to Leave by say 55/45... it's not obvious that such a seat would be Leave today, and anyway there's a big Remain vote there who could go to the one of the Remain parties.
On balance, I think Labour's strategy of riding both horses for as long as humanly possible is hazardous but probably the best of a bad set of options.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/11/more-than-100-pro-leave-constituencies-switch-to-remain
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Some Celtic fertility ritual to assuage the gods of travel I'd guess. Jezz make a a pretty good shaman actually.Foxy said:
Itis impossible to see that photo and not wonder why Jezza is wearing antlers on his head.Theuniondivvie said:Eye on the ball Jeremy, eye on the ball.
https://twitter.com/benjaminbutter/status/11220608644698316800 -
Oh, did someone suggest Bottas for pole earlier today?0
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Telegraph: "Tommy Robinson in line for up to £2million in taxpayers' cash if elected to European Parliament"0
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I don't think he'll make it.rottenborough said:Telegraph: "Tommy Robinson in line for up to £2million in taxpayers' cash if elected to European Parliament"
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I'd be intrigued to see how well the original YouGov polling is weighted, as typical old Labour supporters in pit areas don't strike me as those most likely to be completing their surveys.Foxy said:
There is also good reason to believe that the biggest swing to Remain since 2016 is in coalfield seats, while it is the wealthy county Leavers that are resolute. Things have not been static:SirNorfolkPassmore said:
I understand that 35 of the 45 most marginal Tory seats vulnerable to Labour were Leave voting, and 16 of the 25 most vulnerable Labour seats to the Tories were also Leave voting.Dura_Ace said:
It is more a question of is it a net gain in the key marginals they need to win a GE. Some slide rule jockey is going to have to answer that as I am fucked if I know. Every percentage point that the polls move to Remain is another turn of the thumbscrew for the Corbyn-Milne symbiote though.Sean_F said:
Current Labour voters who support Remain like Corbyn, and will stick with him for other reasons, despite his lack of enthusiasm for the EU. The question is whether Labour would gain in net terms by overtly opposing Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:It’s remarkable how Leavers can convince themselves that it would not be fruitful for political parties to pursue a segment of the electorate that all recent polls suggest currently form a majority of the electorate and where there is abundant evidence that many feel passionately about the subject.
That suggests tacking to Leave BUT:
1. This ignores the SNP - part of Labour's route back involves maybe 15 gains in Scotland from the SNP, and tacking Leave makes it MUCH harder.
2. It really isn't as simple as "Leave" and "Remain" seats. Tacking to Leave is perhaps unlikely to help in a seat that voted to Leave by say 55/45... it's not obvious that such a seat would be Leave today, and anyway there's a big Remain vote there who could go to the one of the Remain parties.
On balance, I think Labour's strategy of riding both horses for as long as humanly possible is hazardous but probably the best of a bad set of options.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/11/more-than-100-pro-leave-constituencies-switch-to-remain
In general, I agree in being minded that there is less clear upside for Labour in coming off the fence. How well they can maintain their manichean position remains to be seen, although the strange youthful allure of Milne must help in keeping supporters on either side of the fence doe eyed.0 -
Like the man said. The LDs took the Lab tactical vote for granted. Big error. They compounded it by mailing an anti-Corbyn leaflet to Labour supporters. Bigger error. The LDs lost by 45 votes.MikeSmithson said:
LAB voters decided not to vote tactically. His majority went down from 23k at GE2015 to just 45 at GE2017.Artist said:How did Goldsmith manage to win his seat back in such a pro remain area at the last election?
That tied vote in the Commons would have been a majority of two against the government with Parliament continuing in control of the agenda if just 46 of the 5773 Labour voters had voted LD instead.0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
F1: mildly annoyed at who ended up on pole.
Going to start writing the pre-race ramble, but it may well be finished and posted tomorrow morning.0 -
We have seen how time and time again incorrect polls have been used to change policy, most notably on the autonomy deal for Scotland before IndyRef. The only people still treating them as sacrosanct have an axe to grind.Sir_Geoff said:
I'd be intrigued to see how well the original YouGov polling is weighted, as typical old Labour supporters in pit areas don't strike me as those most likely to be completing their surveys.Foxy said:
There is also good reason to believe that the biggest swing to Remain since 2016 is in coalfield seats, while it is the wealthy county Leavers that are resolute. Things have not been static:SirNorfolkPassmore said:
I understand that 35 of the 45 most marginal Tory seats vulnerable to Labour were Leave voting, and 16 of the 25 most vulnerable Labour seats to the Tories were also Leave voting.Dura_Ace said:
It is more a question of is it a net gain in the key marginals they need to win a GE. Some slide rule jockey is going to have to answer that as I am fucked if I know. Every percentage point that the polls move to Remain is another turn of the thumbscrew for the Corbyn-Milne symbiote though.Sean_F said:
Current Labour voters who support Remain like Corbyn, and will stick with him for other reasons, despite his lack of enthusiasm for the EU. The question is whether Labour would gain in net terms by overtly opposing Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:It’s remarkable how Leavers can convince themselves that it would not be fruitful for political parties to pursue a segment of the electorate that all recent polls suggest currently form a majority of the electorate and where there is abundant evidence that many feel passionately about the subject.
That suggests tacking to Leave BUT:
1. This ignores the SNP - part of Labour's route back involves maybe 15 gains in Scotland from the SNP, and tacking Leave makes it MUCH harder.
2. It really isn't as simple as "Leave" and "Remain" seats. Tacking to Leave is perhaps unlikely to help in a seat that voted to Leave by say 55/45... it's not obvious that such a seat would be Leave today, and anyway there's a big Remain vote there who could go to the one of the Remain parties.
On balance, I think Labour's strategy of riding both horses for as long as humanly possible is hazardous but probably the best of a bad set of options.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/11/more-than-100-pro-leave-constituencies-switch-to-remain
In general, I agree in being minded that there is less clear upside for Labour in coming off the fence. How well they can maintain their manichean position remains to be seen, although the strange youthful allure of Milne must help in keeping supporters on either side of the fence doe eyed.0 -
That says more about how rotten the EU gravy train is than anything about Tommy Robinson.rottenborough said:Telegraph: "Tommy Robinson in line for up to £2million in taxpayers' cash if elected to European Parliament"
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How exactly is that calculated anyway - it seems rather high and presumably includes office costs and expenses. If one MEP without a party can cost that much it does make you wonder?rottenborough said:Telegraph: "Tommy Robinson in line for up to £2million in taxpayers' cash if elected to European Parliament"
If one MEP without a party and not aligned to a group costs that much - that means our MEPs in total cost nearly £150 million to fund. Seriously?
And that is before the extra funds parties get by being in one of the party groups - which no doubt has been a big help to UKIP and the Greens in recent years.
Given its only an 8 seat region its going to be hard anyway for Robinson to win - last time it was split 3 UKIP, 3 Labour and 2 Tory and even the Greens and LDs didn't get a look in. I wouldn't be surprised if it goes the same way again - but with the Brexit party getting 3 albeit with maybe the LDs getting one instead.0 -
Mr. Sandpit, ha. Slightly annoyed, but there we are.0
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Except for the small bit of evidence of ardent Remain positions repeatedly losing elections.AlastairMeeks said:It’s remarkable how Leavers can convince themselves that it would not be fruitful for political parties to pursue a segment of the electorate that all recent polls suggest currently form a majority of the electorate and where there is abundant evidence that many feel passionately about the subject.
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I go with Brendan16; I don't believe it, unless it's calculated on long membership, plus a long-reviewed pension.JackJack said:
That says more about how rotten the EU gravy train is than anything about Tommy Robinson.rottenborough said:Telegraph: "Tommy Robinson in line for up to £2million in taxpayers' cash if elected to European Parliament"
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How much money did the BNP get when they got MEPs elected? I seemed to remember it was supposedly millions.0
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"Yorkshire Ripper in line for massive salary if appointed Governor of the Bank of England".rottenborough said:Telegraph: "Tommy Robinson in line for up to £2million in taxpayers' cash if elected to European Parliament"
It's a bit of an odd headline, isn't it? I mean, Robinson could of course get an MEP salary if people see fit to elect him, as they did Nick Griffin at one time. That sticks in the craw, but what do the Telegraph suggest we do about it? I mean, it's mildly annoying to me that Jared O'Mara and Christopher Chope get paid for their "efforts"... but that's for the people of Sheffield and Christchurch to answer to.0 -
Nice to see Sunil fulfilling his destiny and taking his rightful place at OGHs side.
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Another reason to leave the EU sooner rather than later. The giant database state they are building.
http://www.zdnet.com/google-amp/article/eu-votes-to-create-gigantic-biometrics-database/0 -
Sure, but it is REALLY concerning when the person telling it comes to believe it. It's like when you see footballers who appear genuinely astounded that they are not given a foul or something, when they surely know they dived. It's frightening, because it seems real.OldKingCole said:
If you repeat a lie firmly enough people will believe it.isam said:There has to be a part in Midsomer Murders when Soubers loses her seat. Epic hammy acting
https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/1122081939937218560?s=210 -
Leave the EU?SirNorfolkPassmore said:
"Yorkshire Ripper in line for massive salary if appointed Governor of the Bank of England".rottenborough said:Telegraph: "Tommy Robinson in line for up to £2million in taxpayers' cash if elected to European Parliament"
It's a bit of an odd headline, isn't it? I mean, Robinson could of course get an MEP salary if people see fit to elect him, as they did Nick Griffin at one time. That sticks in the craw, but what do the Telegraph suggest we do about it?
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I require even more stats - get to it Dr Prasannan0
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Apparently its made up of annual figures ofOldKingCole said:
I go with Brendan16; I don't believe it, unless it's calculated on long membership, plus a long-reviewed pension.JackJack said:
That says more about how rotten the EU gravy train is than anything about Tommy Robinson.rottenborough said:Telegraph: "Tommy Robinson in line for up to £2million in taxpayers' cash if elected to European Parliament"
£87k salary - taxed at only 12%
£259k for staff
£47k in general expenditure allowance
'a lucrative pension' - not costed
and £280 per diem for attending the parliament
Making an estimated total of £400k plus - which over 5 years is nearly £2 million.
The article is driven by comments by a Tory MEP - who sees no irony in that he has been claiming the same sums off taxpayers potentially for the last 5 years and as a result will get a bigger pension! And that ignores the extra handouts paid to members of groups such as the Tories via the ECR.
If its wrong for Robinson to get these eye watering sums isn't it also wrong for the other 72 MEPs we will send to Brussels. Let alone the costs of MEPs across Europe on the same benefits we contribute towards - as presumably we already help fund MEPs from the far left to the far right who no one here voted for!
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Why is that a reason to leave the EU? You would still end up in the database the moment you travel to an EU member state, and the UK government is hardly known for its light-touch digital surveillance. Even as a non-member, participating in such things would be a priority for the UK government.JackJack said:Another reason to leave the EU sooner rather than later. The giant database state they are building.
http://www.zdnet.com/google-amp/article/eu-votes-to-create-gigantic-biometrics-database/0 -
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F1: initial odds have Leclerc shorter than Verstappen for the win despite starting 9th against 4th, respectively. (Odds are 7 and 13).
I was surprised by Verstappen's qualifying pace but uncertain how much that was down to the cooler conditions.0 -
FTPT
100% not statistically valod. It was a "just a bit of fun" thing I did. I looked at the top 10 over performing states and the bottom 10 underperforming states for Trump and looked at their voting methods.Recidivist said:
Is that true? It's a big bit of evidence if statistically valid.Alistair said:Also a reminder that Trump out performed polling in states with no audit trail electronic voting and underperformed in states with manual counting.
I'll need to dig up the post again but I think all but 1 of the overperformers were electronic voting with the majority having no paper trail (New Jersey was a huge over performance for example) and the bottom ten all but 2 were manual counts IIRC.0 -
Presumably the expenses for staff are an allowance, and if an MEP doesn't employ the staff, or appropriate staff, the money isn't payable. Same applies to the per diem expenses; I would have thought one actually had to physically sign in, even if immediately afterwards one left for Le Lion Rouge, or whatever the Belgian equivalent is.brendan16 said:
Apparently its made up of annual figures ofOldKingCole said:
I go with Brendan16; I don't believe it, unless it's calculated on long membership, plus a long-reviewed pension.JackJack said:
That says more about how rotten the EU gravy train is than anything about Tommy Robinson.rottenborough said:Telegraph: "Tommy Robinson in line for up to £2million in taxpayers' cash if elected to European Parliament"
£87k salary - taxed at only 12%
£259k for staff
£47k in general expenditure allowance
'a lucrative pension' - not costed
and £280 per diem for attending the parliament
Making an estimated total of £400k plus - which over 5 years is nearly £2 million.
The article is driven by comments by a Tory MEP - who sees no irony in that he has been claiming the same sums off taxpayers potentially for the last 5 years and as a result will get a bigger pension! And that ignores the extra handouts paid to members of groups such as the Tories via the ECR.
If its wrong for Robinson to get these eye watering sums isn't it also wrong for the other 72 MEPs we will send to Brussels. Let alone the costs of MEPs across Europe on the same benefits we contribute towards - as presumably we already help fund MEPs from the far left to the far right who no one here voted for!
And agree about the irony-defective Tory MEP!0 -
Biden already getting under Trump's thin skin:
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/26/sleepy-biden-2020-1291181
Keep it up Joe!0 -
Jeff Brauer, a political science professor: “If they are successful in pushing the party too far left for a Biden candidacy, Pennsylvanian and Midwestern blue-collar workers may be lost to the Republicans for decades.”
https://nypost.com/2019/04/27/joe-bidens-killer-advantage-heading-into-2020-election/0 -
Remember when the country was split over pasty tax? Seems like a lifetime ago:
https://twitter.com/TheMiliverse/status/8575123260435005440 -
Citation needed.JackJack said:
Except for the small bit of evidence of ardent Remain positions repeatedly losing elections.AlastairMeeks said:It’s remarkable how Leavers can convince themselves that it would not be fruitful for political parties to pursue a segment of the electorate that all recent polls suggest currently form a majority of the electorate and where there is abundant evidence that many feel passionately about the subject.
Leaver articles of faith are not enough.0 -
Chuka just can't seem to find the starting line?Theuniondivvie said: 0 -
Awful for Change UK. 4% would probably not even win them a seat in the South East.isam said:Stealthy TIGgers
https://twitter.com/survation/status/1122158151623675905?s=21
This is the first poll to give the pro-Brexit parties 50%, but OGH has linked to a thread by Martin Boon, which warns of the possibility that support for the Brexit Party could be a bit overstated.0 -
50% Brex/Ukip/Con - not sure the UK has shifted much since 2016 contrary to the blather of remoaners.Theuniondivvie said:0 -
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Surely that should read "lost to the Democrats for decades"? Isn't the point being made that, if Dems opt for someone left of Biden, that'll alienate blue collar, Obama/Trump voters semi-permanently.rottenborough said:Jeff Brauer, a political science professor: “If they are successful in pushing the party too far left for a Biden candidacy, Pennsylvanian and Midwestern blue-collar workers may be lost to the Republicans for decades.”
https://nypost.com/2019/04/27/joe-bidens-killer-advantage-heading-into-2020-election/0 -
Add 2% more for English Democrats and DUP, and you get.......52%.Norm said:
50% Brex/Ukip/Con - not sure the UK has shifted much since 2016 contrary to the blather of remoaners.Theuniondivvie said:0 -
Are Con all Leavers? Any more than Lab are all Remainers?Norm said:
50% Brex/Ukip/Con - not sure the UK has shifted much since 2016 contrary to the blather of remoaners.Theuniondivvie said:0 -
Almost 40% of energy is being produced by wind or solar at the moment despite the fact it's not sunny in most places.
https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk0 -
UKIP having almost as much support as ChangeUK and the Greens put together is a bit embarrassing for the latter two parties.Theuniondivvie said:0 -
It is bloody windy though!!AndyJS said:Almost 40% of energy is being produced by wind or solar at the moment despite the fact it's not sunny in most places.
https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk0 -
I'd never looked it up but I assumed Milne was in his 40's, that is pretty impressive.williamglenn said:
Apparently people are just jealous of Milne's youthful looks.Dura_Ace said:
It is more a question of is it a net gain in the key marginals they need to win a GE. Some slide rule jockey is going to have to answer that as I am fucked if I know. Every percentage point that the polls move to Remain is another turn of the thumbscrew for the Corbyn-Milne symbiote though.Sean_F said:
Current Labour voters who support Remain like Corbyn, and will stick with him for other reasons, despite his lack of enthusiasm for the EU. The question is whether Labour would gain in net terms by overtly opposing Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:It’s remarkable how Leavers can convince themselves that it would not be fruitful for political parties to pursue a segment of the electorate that all recent polls suggest currently form a majority of the electorate and where there is abundant evidence that many feel passionately about the subject.
https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1122090404634144768
Although the main reason Milne disliked is his political views, if he was more supportive of war and the occupation of Palestine he wouldn't be targeted. Also being close to Corbyn will get you attacked in the media, if he was just working at the Guardian there would be much less reason to target him.
If he was a centrist you would have Nick Cohen writing an article complaining about people targeting him! (as per my article and extract earlier)0 -
Seven Climate Change candidates are standing in London, but they're each standing as an independent rather than as part of a combined ticket. This means they're paying a total of £35,000 in deposits instead of £5,000. They're also competing against the Greens.0
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I would have thought that the long running opposition to leave and the demographic associated with it (generally younger, wealthier, more likely to be net-connected) would have meant that remain was more likely to be overstated/over-represented.Sean_F said:
Awful for Change UK. 4% would probably not even win them a seat in the South East.isam said:Stealthy TIGgers
https://twitter.com/survation/status/1122158151623675905?s=21
This is the first poll to give the pro-Brexit parties 50%, but OGH has linked to a thread by Martin Boon, which warns of the possibility that support for the Brexit Party could be a bit overstated.
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But where are all the Brexit supporters who are not rallying around Farage? If hardly any exist - which is perfectly plausible - then support for Brexit now stands at only 27%.Norm said:
50% Brex/Ukip/Con - not sure the UK has shifted much since 2016 contrary to the blather of remoaners.Theuniondivvie said:0 -
Desperate stuff Scott when you are down to quoting the dog food salesman.Scott_P said:0 -
Eh? UKIP are on 7% for a startStark_Dawning said:
But where are all the Brexit supporters who are not rallying around Farage? If hardly any exist - which is perfectly plausible - then support for Brexit now stands at only 27%.Norm said:
50% Brex/Ukip/Con - not sure the UK has shifted much since 2016 contrary to the blather of remoaners.Theuniondivvie said:0 -
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F1: markets still nowhere near up so I'll check again tomorrow and post the pre-race ramble then.0
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I suspect a Biden/Trump contest would suit Trump pretty well and he's broadly happy to talk it up.rottenborough said:Biden already getting under Trump's thin skin:
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/26/sleepy-biden-2020-1291181
Keep it up Joe!
Buttigieg and others have this right - making this a referendum on Trump is a losing strategy in 2020. I see why Biden is doing it... his selling point to Democrats in primaries is perceived electability, and that comes to the fore if you care more about beating the incumbent than about who replaces him. So I expect that to be his approach - make it about Trump and a battle of the Big Beasts... as Alan Hansen (wrongly) had it "you win nothing with kids".
But that's tactics, not strategy... Democrats will struggle in a General Election if they look as if they are saying the electorate were wrong in 2016 and should try again. And that's exactly where Biden is positioning himself. He may well seek to pivot once he's got the nomination, but it may be too late.
Further, I think Trump recognises his own age IS a problem, hence his theatrical attempts to talk up his vigor and health. Biden (or Sanders of course) neutralise that problem immediately.
None of that's to say Biden doesn't genuinely get under Trump's skin. He'd frankly be more annoyed to lose to Biden than anyone else who's in the running. A win by a younger candidate can be painted as (and indeed would be) a generational shift. A win by Sanders is at least another defeat for the Establishment who laughed at Trump. A win for Biden is hard, even for someone as delusional as Trump, to take as anything but a personal humiliation - a win for the Establishment, for Clinton, for Obama etc.0 -
On that sort of poll result it is quite likely that a majority of the remaining Tories are remainers, the leavers all having left.OldKingCole said:
Are Con all Leavers? Any more than Lab are all Remainers?Norm said:
50% Brex/Ukip/Con - not sure the UK has shifted much since 2016 contrary to the blather of remoaners.Theuniondivvie said:0 -
34% then?isam said:
Eh? UKIP are on 7% for a startStark_Dawning said:
But where are all the Brexit supporters who are not rallying around Farage? If hardly any exist - which is perfectly plausible - then support for Brexit now stands at only 27%.Norm said:
50% Brex/Ukip/Con - not sure the UK has shifted much since 2016 contrary to the blather of remoaners.Theuniondivvie said:0 -
Well dont agree with that either! But at least it vaguely makes sense in a very biased wayStark_Dawning said:
34% then?isam said:
Eh? UKIP are on 7% for a startStark_Dawning said:
But where are all the Brexit supporters who are not rallying around Farage? If hardly any exist - which is perfectly plausible - then support for Brexit now stands at only 27%.Norm said:
50% Brex/Ukip/Con - not sure the UK has shifted much since 2016 contrary to the blather of remoaners.Theuniondivvie said:0 -
Blimey, that's going to be one big ballot paper.AndyJS said:Seven Climate Change candidates are standing in London, but they're each standing as an independent rather than as part of a combined ticket. This means they're paying a total of £35,000 in deposits instead of £5,000. They're also competing against the Greens.
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Second referendum is dead if LD/TIG/Greens do as the polls say.0
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Which are extremely pro-USSR, down to supporting the invasion of Afghanistan, and whitewashing Stalin's genocides.TheJezziah said:
Although the main reason Milne disliked is his political views ....
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I’m not sure that John Rentoul, the last remaining member of the church of Blair, has made the correct choice on any decision in the last 5 years. There’s a reason he writes for a online sheet which is little more than vanity electrons for its owner.Scott_P said:
This time it’s different. Perhaps.0 -
Well, you've got 34% die-hard with UKIP/Brexit Party. Then you've got a lot of the 16% Tory, and some of the 27% Labour.Stark_Dawning said:
But where are all the Brexit supporters who are not rallying around Farage? If hardly any exist - which is perfectly plausible - then support for Brexit now stands at only 27%.Norm said:
50% Brex/Ukip/Con - not sure the UK has shifted much since 2016 contrary to the blather of remoaners.Theuniondivvie said:
What it says to me is that the country is as divided as ever. Perhaps Remain would win a second referendum 52/48. Perhaps they wouldn't. What it wouldn't be is a 60/40 blowout for either side - that's always been a daft fantasy. I suspect, to the extent there has been a glacial shift over the past three years, it owes more to the Grim Reaper than anything.0 -
On Survation's numbers, I'd make the result:-
Labour 25, Brexit 22, Conservative 11, UKIP 5, Lib Dem 4, SNP 2, Plaid 1.
On Opinium's,
Labour 26, Brexit 24, Conservative 9, SNP 3, Lib Dem 2, Change 2, Green 2, UKIP 1, Plaid 1.0 -
Presumably they have £ signs and a good private education behind them to be able to waste £30k. Won’t they all split the vote too?AndyJS said:Seven Climate Change candidates are standing in London, but they're each standing as an independent rather than as part of a combined ticket. This means they're paying a total of £35,000 in deposits instead of £5,000. They're also competing against the Greens.
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If Corbyn is bound to win, then he can do as he pleases.matt said:
I’m not sure that John Rentoul, the last remaining member of the church of Blair, has made the correct choice on any decision in the last 5 years. There’s a reason he writes for a online sheet which is little more than vanity electrons for its owner.Scott_P said:
This time it’s different. Perhaps.
But, no one is bound to win in politics.0 -
Last time someone made this accusation part of the extremely pro USSR view was pointing out they and West Germany had nursery or some kind of child care provided by the state. The rhetoric often doesn't meet the reality really... Not that the USSR is much of a live issue these days. Or much if an issue at all for those under 45.Andrew said:
Which are extremely pro-USSR, down to supporting the invasion of Afghanistan, and whitewashing Stalin's genocides.TheJezziah said:
Although the main reason Milne disliked is his political views ....
The Tories actually get quite a bit if money from the Russians, not that anyone actually cares otherwise there would be a fuss about that rather than Milne apparently being the pro Putin but people just use it for a propaganda weapon.0 -
I don't think the occurrence of a second referendum is dependent on that. What matters is whether or not it becomes the only realistic way to break the Parliamentary deadlock, not whether the public enthusiastically support it.Artist said:Second referendum is dead if LD/TIG/Greens do as the polls say.
In an important sense, vanishingly few people "want" a second referendum. Die hard Remainers just want to remain. Die hard Leavers just want to leave. A lot of other people just want prompt resolution to the matter to end the uncertainty. There aren't a lot of people there saying, "I don't mind about the result but just think it's important for democracy that the deal gets a confirmatory vote". What makes it a live option is if enough of each of those three groups think their best chance to get what they want given Parliamentary arithmetic is a referendum.0 -
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Did someone say splitters?tlg86 said:
Blimey, that's going to be one big ballot paper.AndyJS said:Seven Climate Change candidates are standing in London, but they're each standing as an independent rather than as part of a combined ticket. This means they're paying a total of £35,000 in deposits instead of £5,000. They're also competing against the Greens.
The returning officer thanks them for their donation... I mean deposit.0 -
How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right0 -
There are numerous examples of him defending the USSR in print. For example, wrt Afghanistan:TheJezziah said:
Last time someone made this accusation part of the extremely pro USSR ....
https://twitter.com/J_Bloodworth/status/1066821013416103936
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