Am I reading this correctly? Nick Timothy is now urging the Tories to rename themselves the National Party and go after the English rural redneck vote. I'm amazed he thinks such a demographic even exists, let alone be capable of winning you an election.
The rural redneck vote went Tory in 2010, UKIP in 2015, Tory in 2017 and is now voting Brexit Party, it does exist
I'm surprised they have time to vote between shooting armadillos with high-powered rifles.
Yes, the published media lie about the reality of events with Brexit too.
Most of the published media - like most on this board - have not bothered to read the text of the Withdrawal Agreement.
So says the person who was convinced we'd have a trade agreement months ago...
A trade agreement?
Really? I look forward to you sharing my comment where I said that.
It might take more googling than I have time for it but it was in the context of you saying that archer101 and I were both wrong to say there would be no trade negotiations during the Article 50 process.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
The same poll had 17% voting Brexit Party though, most of them ex Tories with the Tory vote down to just 26% and thus far more Remain than 2017 or even 2015
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
It happened. Get over it. If either the Tories or Labour genuinely believed that, they’d advocate revocation which has done nothing for either the LibDems or CUK.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
It happened. Get over it. If either the Tories or Labour genuinely believed that, they’d advocate revocation which has done nothing for either the LibDems or CUK.
I'm over it, sorry if posting polling information triggered you.
Labour and Brexit party neck and neck for the Euros, I think a few more Tories will shift to put Farage over the line. The Tories then need to win back those voters for the next general election
Not convinced that will happen. Farage might be an arrogant self publicist with no policy platform for a GE, but even with May gone, there is no good reason to vote Tory whilst the likes of Hammond, Clark, Gauke etc make the Tories indistinguishable from Blairite Labour.
Really? Blairite Labour spent well beyond their means (as did George Osborne).
To his credit, Hammond has pursued broadly sensible macroeconomic policies, and done more than any government in the developed world to tackle multinationals diverting profits abroad.
From an economic governance perspective, he's the best Chancellor since Clarke, and you could make the case he's the best since Geoffrey Howe.
Hammond has simply pursued Osborne’s policies - allowing Gov spending to escalate and funding it by frozen allowances and big hikes in indirect taxes. Neither did anything to attract inward investment, boost productivity or champion consumer rights and both have penalised savers to favour borrowers. Both were indistinguishable from Blairite Labour. Hammond has been negligent in combatting McDonnell’s Mickey Mouse economics and has given McDonnell free rein in peddling his economic illiteracy. He’s useless.
If anybody takes over from May Hammond is the only one I’d feel safe with! But I suspect that is a minority opinion
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
It happened. Get over it. If either the Tories or Labour genuinely believed that, they’d advocate revocation which has done nothing for either the LibDems or CUK.
'Get over it' - is that why Cameron has gone AWOL?
Katharine Stewart Murray is an interesting woman. Duchess of Atholl in her spare time, militant *opponent* of women's suffrage, first Scottish woman MP. The circumstances of her resigning were: "She resigned the Conservative Whip first in 1935 over the India Bill and the "national-socialist tendency" of the government's domestic policy. Resuming the Whip, she resigned it again in 1938 in opposition to Neville Chamberlain's policy of appeasement of Adolf Hitler and to the Anglo-Italian agreement. According to her biography, A Working Partnership she was then deselected by her local party. She took Stewardship of the Chiltern Hundreds on 28 November 1938. She stood unsuccessfully in the subsequent by-election as an Independent candidate."
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
It happened. Get over it. If either the Tories or Labour genuinely believed that, they’d advocate revocation which has done nothing for either the LibDems or CUK.
I'm over it, sorry if posting polling information triggered you.
Don’t apologies for providing new information from pollsters
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
Labour and Brexit party neck and neck for the Euros, I think a few more Tories will shift to put Farage over the line. The Tories then need to win back those voters for the next general election
Not convinced that will happen. Farage might be an arrogant self publicist with no policy platform for a GE, but even with May gone, there is no good reason to vote Tory whilst the likes of Hammond, Clark, Gauke etc make the Tories indistinguishable from Blairite Labour.
Really? Blairite Labour spent well beyond their means (as did George Osborne).
To his credit, Hammond has pursued broadly sensible macroeconomic policies, and done more than any government in the developed world to tackle multinationals diverting profits abroad.
From an economic governance perspective, he's the best Chancellor since Clarke, and you could make the case he's the best since Geoffrey Howe.
Hammond has simply pursued Osborne’s policies - allowing Gov spending to escalate and funding it by frozen allowances and big hikes in indirect taxes. Neither did anything to attract inward investment, boost productivity or champion consumer rights and both have penalised savers to favour borrowers. Both were indistinguishable from Blairite Labour. Hammond has been negligent in combatting McDonnell’s Mickey Mouse economics and has given McDonnell free rein in peddling his economic illiteracy. He’s useless.
If anybody takes over from May Hammond is the only one I’d feel safe with! But I suspect that is a minority opinion
Good chancellors are rare. Mrs T was fortunate to have both Howe and Lawson but, whilst I don’t share your opinion on Hammond, I do agree Clarke was the last decent Chancellor we’ve had.
Labour and Brexit party neck and neck for the Euros, I think a few more Tories will shift to put Farage over the line. The Tories then need to win back those voters for the next general election
Not convinced that will happen. Farage might be an arrogant self publicist with no policy platform for a GE, but even with May gone, there is no good reason to vote Tory whilst the likes of Hammond, Clark, Gauke etc make the Tories indistinguishable from Blairite Labour.
Really? Blairite Labour spent well beyond their means (as did George Osborne).
To his credit, Hammond has pursued broadly sensible macroeconomic policies, and done more than any government in the developed world to tackle multinationals diverting profits abroad.
From an economic governance perspective, he's the best Chancellor since Clarke, and you could make the case he's the best since Geoffrey Howe.
Hammond has simply pursued Osborne’s policies - allowing Gov spending to escalate and funding it by frozen allowances and big hikes in indirect taxes. Neither did anything to attract inward investment, boost productivity or champion consumer rights and both have penalised savers to favour borrowers. Both were indistinguishable from Blairite Labour. Hammond has been negligent in combatting McDonnell’s Mickey Mouse economics and has given McDonnell free rein in peddling his economic illiteracy. He’s useless.
If anybody takes over from May Hammond is the only one I’d feel safe with! But I suspect that is a minority opinion
Hammond is the only adult in the room at Cabinet meetings, but will not get any thanks for it.
So, assuming that there isn't an imminent General Election, can we say that if the 11 Change UK MPs did resign and contest by-elections, do they they stand a statistical chance of re-election? I would stick my neck out and say yes, kind of! The caveat being, of course, that every Westminster seat (and every MP!) is different.
It seems obvious to me that there would be a selection bias. MPs who are confident of being re-elected are more likely to trigger by-elections than those not confident.
So you can't use the results of those elections to judge how likely it is in general for an MP to be re-elected (unless you're explicitly assuming that they will only call such a by-election because they have independently established that they have a good chance of being re-elected, but in that case the statistics are meaningless as the assumption is doing all the work).
I think a minority of the actual defectors from Party X to Party Y lost, no? And I did add a caveat: The caveat being, of course, that every Westminster seat (and every MP!) is different.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
It happened. Get over it. If either the Tories or Labour genuinely believed that, they’d advocate revocation which has done nothing for either the LibDems or CUK.
'Get over it' - is that why Cameron has gone AWOL?
Cameron quit in a massive hissy fit over the fact he lost. Spoilt brat syndrome. He would never have led Britain out of the EU.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
Labour and Brexit party neck and neck for the Euros, I think a few more Tories will shift to put Farage over the line. The Tories then need to win back those voters for the next general election
Not convinced that will happen. Farage might be an arrogant self publicist with no policy platform for a GE, but even with May gone, there is no good reason to vote Tory whilst the likes of Hammond, Clark, Gauke etc make the Tories indistinguishable from Blairite Labour.
Really? Blairite Labour spent well beyond their means (as did George Osborne).
To his credit, Hammond has pursued broadly sensible macroeconomic policies, and done more than any government in the developed world to tackle multinationals diverting profits abroad.
From an economic governance perspective, he's the best Chancellor since Clarke, and you could make the case he's the best since Geoffrey Howe.
Hammond has simply pursued Osborne’s policies - allowing Gov spending to escalate and funding it by frozen allowances and big hikes in indirect taxes. Neither did anything to attract inward investment, boost productivity or champion consumer rights and both have penalised savers to favour borrowers. Both were indistinguishable from Blairite Labour. Hammond has been negligent in combatting McDonnell’s Mickey Mouse economics and has given McDonnell free rein in peddling his economic illiteracy. He’s useless.
If anybody takes over from May Hammond is the only one I’d feel safe with! But I suspect that is a minority opinion
Would you vote for the Tories under Hammond though? If not that is not much use if almost half the Tory vote goes to the Brexit Party
Hammond has simply pursued Osborne’s policies - allowing Gov spending to escalate and funding it by frozen allowances and big hikes in indirect taxes. Neither did anything to attract inward investment, boost productivity or champion consumer rights and both have penalised savers to favour borrowers. Both were indistinguishable from Blairite Labour. Hammond has been negligent in combatting McDonnell’s Mickey Mouse economics and has given McDonnell free rein in peddling his economic illiteracy. He’s useless.
Government spending is rising because we have an ageing population. Every year the number of old people rises, and therefore the proportion of workers' income that needs to be diverted to pay for their keep (and increasingly) healthcare.
Old age pensions and the NHS will continue to grow as a proportion of our economy, and that's almost impossible to counter.
You don't have to go too far in the past (like the 1980s) to find them taking up less than a third of central government spending. They now take up almost half. (£303bn out of £638bn in fiscal 2018, or 48%.)
Do you have some magic plan to reduce pension payments? Or cut NHS spending? (Or for that matter the amount the government spends on debt interest.)
Because, absent healthcare and pensions, government spending has been falling. Not like in Ireland or Spain or Portugal, sure, where there across the board cuts in civil servant incomes of 15% or more, but the pressure on overall spending levels from an ageing population is relentless and inevitable.
There's a reason why Chancellors (sensible ones, at least) prefer to push up indirect taxes, and that's because it impacts the savings rate. Higher savings rates mean a lower current account deficit, because indirect taxes are taxes on consumption. And we consume too much.
I would argue that both Howe and Clarke did more to encourage domestic investment, but subsidising saving over spending. (But unlike the adminstrations of Brown or Osborne) there have not been dramatic cuts to savings encouragement schemes.)
Finally: when you say "encourage inward investment", what is it that you think the government could do? I'm the CEO of a insurance technology company based in LA and London. What could they do for me to encourage me to invest my incremental investment dollar in London or Leeds*? (Answers on a postcard please.)
* The UK government does actually have some fairly sensible policies. There's EIS and SEIS for encouraging early stage investment. There's the R&D tax credit to help fund spending on tech. But many of the things that we could do - like offering tax holidays for multinationals to invest in the UK would be incredibly unpopular. The zeitgeist is not in favour of allowing Amazon, Facebook, Apple and Google to pay less tax (which means, obviously, more taxes to be paid by domestic companies.)
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
If Brexit and Labour are neck and neck, they could both rise further, as the former cannibalises Leave voters, and the latter Remain voters, who want to deny victory to the other side.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
Yes, the published media lie about the reality of events with Brexit too.
Most of the published media - like most on this board - have not bothered to read the text of the Withdrawal Agreement.
So says the person who was convinced we'd have a trade agreement months ago...
A trade agreement?
Really? I look forward to you sharing my comment where I said that.
It might take more googling than I have time for it but it was in the context of you saying that archer101 and I were both wrong to say there would be no trade negotiations during the Article 50 process.
Well, then you're clearly wrong. There have been lots of trade negotiations.
Isn’t the Brexit party in the EFDD - how come they are shown as zero? I presume they are part of the unaffiliated?
I know the Italian five star movement wanted to move on but they haven’t found sufficient allies yet so might logically link up with Farage again. But if they don’t get seven nations MEPs to join they can’t form a group anyway.
If of course Farage isn’t leader of a group in Brussels he won’t be able to make his ‘prime time’ speeches in future so will be a much diminished figure in the new parliament. Z
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
It happened. Get over it. If either the Tories or Labour genuinely believed that, they’d advocate revocation which has done nothing for either the LibDems or CUK.
I'm over it, sorry if posting polling information triggered you.
It’s all hypothetical. If it had any meaning, the major parties would be considering revocation. See what happens to their polling numbers if that happens.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
Katharine Stewart Murray is an interesting woman. Duchess of Atholl in her spare time, militant *opponent* of women's suffrage, first Scottish woman MP. The circumstances of her resigning were: "She resigned the Conservative Whip first in 1935 over the India Bill and the "national-socialist tendency" of the government's domestic policy. Resuming the Whip, she resigned it again in 1938 in opposition to Neville Chamberlain's policy of appeasement of Adolf Hitler and to the Anglo-Italian agreement. According to her biography, A Working Partnership she was then deselected by her local party. She took Stewardship of the Chiltern Hundreds on 28 November 1938. She stood unsuccessfully in the subsequent by-election as an Independent candidate."
Nice to see Sunil fulfilling his destiny and taking his rightful place at OGHs side.
You're welcome! Would have replied earlier if I weren't at the Epping Ongar Diesel Gala!
Did they have a Deltic again this year?
No, not this time, only a Class 25 as guest, plus a Class 37, Class 31, Class 47, class 117 DMU and a Class 20. Class 45 on display, plus 03 shunter. There was also a 1959 tube stock driving car on display too. Oh, and the former LT electric loco L11 is in new bright yellow garb outside Epping Car Park!
Am I reading this correctly? Nick Timothy is now urging the Tories to rename themselves the National Party and go after the English rural redneck vote. I'm amazed he thinks such a demographic even exists, let alone be capable of winning you an election.
That would be the same Nick Timothy who was one of May’s most toxic advisers and wrote the toxic 2017 Tory Manifesto. Best ignored.
It might have been toxic,
But at least it was honest about the challenges of paying for an ageing population.
It seems the best way to gain votes is simply to lie to the people about the challenges ahead.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
Katharine Stewart Murray is an interesting woman. Duchess of Atholl in her spare time, militant *opponent* of women's suffrage, first Scottish woman MP. The circumstances of her resigning were: "She resigned the Conservative Whip first in 1935 over the India Bill and the "national-socialist tendency" of the government's domestic policy. Resuming the Whip, she resigned it again in 1938 in opposition to Neville Chamberlain's policy of appeasement of Adolf Hitler and to the Anglo-Italian agreement. According to her biography, A Working Partnership she was then deselected by her local party. She took Stewardship of the Chiltern Hundreds on 28 November 1938. She stood unsuccessfully in the subsequent by-election as an Independent candidate."
Yes, the published media lie about the reality of events with Brexit too.
Most of the published media - like most on this board - have not bothered to read the text of the Withdrawal Agreement.
So says the person who was convinced we'd have a trade agreement months ago...
A trade agreement?
Really? I look forward to you sharing my comment where I said that.
It might take more googling than I have time for it but it was in the context of you saying that archer101 and I were both wrong to say there would be no trade negotiations during the Article 50 process.
Well, then you're clearly wrong. There have been lots of trade negotiations.
We're talking about trade negotiations with the EU. There haven't really been any in the sense it's normally understood - just political negotiations about the context in which trade could be discussed at some future point.
Bear in mind that Theresa May was still saying we'd have a trade deal with the EU agreed during the Article 50 period in June 2017 so it's not such an outrageous thing for you to have said.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
Labour and Brexit party neck and neck for the Euros, I think a few more Tories will shift to put Farage over the line. The Tories then need to win back those voters for the next general election
Not convinced that will happen. Farage might be an arrogant self publicist with no policy platform for a GE, but even with May gone, there is no good reason to vote Tory whilst the likes of Hammond, Clark, Gauke etc make the Tories indistinguishable from Blairite Labour.
Really? Blairite Labour spent well beyond their means (as did George Osborne).
To his credit, Hammond has pursued broadly sensible macroeconomic policies, and done more than any government in the developed world to tackle multinationals diverting profits abroad.
From an economic governance perspective, he's the best Chancellor since Clarke, and you could make the case he's the best since Geoffrey Howe.
Hammond has simply pursued Osborne’s policies - allowing Gov spending to escalate and funding it by frozen allowances and big hikes in indirect taxes. Neither did anything to attract inward investment, boost productivity or champion consumer rights and both have penalised savers to favour borrowers. Both were indistinguishable from Blairite Labour. Hammond has been negligent in combatting McDonnell’s Mickey Mouse economics and has given McDonnell free rein in peddling his economic illiteracy. He’s useless.
If anybody takes over from May Hammond is the only one I’d feel safe with! But I suspect that is a minority opinion
Would you vote for the Tories under Hammond though? If not that is not much use if almost half the Tory vote goes to the Brexit Party
Oddly enough I probably could provided he could pull together like minds which I see as fiscally responsible but liberally inclined socially with an internationalist out look. Shame Ken is too old and the Tory’s have purged their “left” wing
Yes, the published media lie about the reality of events with Brexit too.
Most of the published media - like most on this board - have not bothered to read the text of the Withdrawal Agreement.
So says the person who was convinced we'd have a trade agreement months ago...
A trade agreement?
Really? I look forward to you sharing my comment where I said that.
It might take more googling than I have time for it but it was in the context of you saying that archer101 and I were both wrong to say there would be no trade negotiations during the Article 50 process.
Well, then you're clearly wrong. There have been lots of trade negotiations.
We're talking about trade negotiations with the EU. There haven't really been any in the sense it's normally understood - just political negotiations about the context in which trade could be discussed at some future point.
Bear in mind that Theresa May was still saying we'd have a trade deal with the EU agreed during the Article 50 period in June 2017 so it's not such an outrageous thing for you to have said.
We should have done if the EU didn't create this stupid artificial separation between withdrawal and future relationship. All the problems with the backstop have been caused by that needless decision. As is typical for the EU, they confront the problems they created by doubling down and blaming everyone else.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
Isn’t the Brexit party in the EFDD - how come they are shown as zero? I presume they are part of the unaffiliated?
I know the Italian five star movement wanted to move on but they haven’t found sufficient allies yet so might logically link up with Farage again. But if they don’t get seven nations MEPs to join they can’t form a group anyway.
If of course Farage isn’t leader of a group in Brussels he won’t be able to make his ‘prime time’ speeches in future so will be a much diminished figure in the new parliament. Z
I assume they must be part of the unaffiliated. Farage won't join the ENF, and presumably would be unhappy about playing second fiddle in the ECR. That said, it's probable he could cobble together a group that was dominated by the Brexit Party.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
Am I reading this correctly? Nick Timothy is now urging the Tories to rename themselves the National Party and go after the English rural redneck vote. I'm amazed he thinks such a demographic even exists, let alone be capable of winning you an election.
That would be the same Nick Timothy who was one of May’s most toxic advisers and wrote the toxic 2017 Tory Manifesto. Best ignored.
It might have been toxic,
But at least it was honest about the challenges of paying for an ageing population.
It seems the best way to gain votes is simply to lie to the people about the challenges ahead.
The Dementia Tax debacle proved that the elite media opinion that the Tories should take on older voters to win back the young was a stupid received wisdom. Just like the idea that they should take on eurosceptics to win back Remainers.
Am I reading this correctly? Nick Timothy is now urging the Tories to rename themselves the National Party and go after the English rural redneck vote. I'm amazed he thinks such a demographic even exists, let alone be capable of winning you an election.
That would be the same Nick Timothy who was one of May’s most toxic advisers and wrote the toxic 2017 Tory Manifesto. Best ignored.
It might have been toxic,
But at least it was honest about the challenges of paying for an ageing population.
It seems the best way to gain votes is simply to lie to the people about the challenges ahead.
The Dementia Tax debacle proved that the elite media opinion that the Tories should take on older voters to win back the young was a stupid received wisdom. Just like the idea that they should take on eurosceptics to win back Remainers.
The middle of an election campaign is not the time to spring a contentious policy on the population.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
Yes, the published media lie about the reality of events with Brexit too.
Most of the published media - like most on this board - have not bothered to read the text of the Withdrawal Agreement.
So says the person who was convinced we'd have a trade agreement months ago...
A trade agreement?
Really? I look forward to you sharing my comment where I said that.
It might take more googling than I have time for it but it was in the context of you saying that archer101 and I were both wrong to say there would be no trade negotiations during the Article 50 process.
Well, then you're clearly wrong. There have been lots of trade negotiations.
We're talking about trade negotiations with the EU. There haven't really been any in the sense it's normally understood - just political negotiations about the context in which trade could be discussed at some future point.
Bear in mind that Theresa May was still saying we'd have a trade deal with the EU agreed during the Article 50 period in June 2017 so it's not such an outrageous thing for you to have said.
We should have done if the EU didn't create this stupid artificial separation between withdrawal and future relationship. All the problems with the backstop have been caused by that needless decision. As is typical for the EU, they confront the problems they created by doubling down and blaming everyone else.
Before Article 50 was invoked, Mervyn King suggested we propose a customs border in the Irish Sea. If we'd just taken that as the baseline, there wouldn't have been a problem.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
Isn’t the Brexit party in the EFDD - how come they are shown as zero? I presume they are part of the unaffiliated?
I know the Italian five star movement wanted to move on but they haven’t found sufficient allies yet so might logically link up with Farage again. But if they don’t get seven nations MEPs to join they can’t form a group anyway.
If of course Farage isn’t leader of a group in Brussels he won’t be able to make his ‘prime time’ speeches in future so will be a much diminished figure in the new parliament. Z
I assume they must be part of the unaffiliated. Farage won't join the ENF, and presumably would be unhappy about playing second fiddle in the ECR. That said, it's probable he could cobble together a group that was dominated by the Brexit Party.
I would assume the Tories would veto the Brexit party joining their ECR group?
In the end if you can get a few stragglers and independents to make a group from seven nations it’s usually doable. They all get more cash than by being unaffiliated so they can usually be persuaded.
The national lists many nations use can provide a great variety of small parties to work with.
Yes, the published media lie about the reality of events with Brexit too.
Most of the published media - like most on this board - have not bothered to read the text of the Withdrawal Agreement.
So says the person who was convinced we'd have a trade agreement months ago...
A trade agreement?
Really? I look forward to you sharing my comment where I said that.
It might take more googling than I have time for it but it was in the context of you saying that archer101 and I were both wrong to say there would be no trade negotiations during the Article 50 process.
Well, then you're clearly wrong. There have been lots of trade negotiations.
We're talking about trade negotiations with the EU. There haven't really been any in the sense it's normally understood - just political negotiations about the context in which trade could be discussed at some future point.
Bear in mind that Theresa May was still saying we'd have a trade deal with the EU agreed during the Article 50 period in June 2017 so it's not such an outrageous thing for you to have said.
We should have done if the EU didn't create this stupid artificial separation between withdrawal and future relationship. All the problems with the backstop have been caused by that needless decision. As is typical for the EU, they confront the problems they created by doubling down and blaming everyone else.
Before Article 50 was invoked, Mervyn King suggested we propose a customs border in the Irish Sea. If we'd just taken that as the baseline, there wouldn't have been a problem.
The Northern Irish, or any other people, not getting a vote on their own law is an unacceptable long term situation. It is undemocratic to its core and made even less democratic by being made permanent with no self-democratic right to leave.
Isn’t the Brexit party in the EFDD - how come they are shown as zero? I presume they are part of the unaffiliated?
I know the Italian five star movement wanted to move on but they haven’t found sufficient allies yet so might logically link up with Farage again. But if they don’t get seven nations MEPs to join they can’t form a group anyway.
If of course Farage isn’t leader of a group in Brussels he won’t be able to make his ‘prime time’ speeches in future so will be a much diminished figure in the new parliament. Z
They are shown as zero because according to this projection they would fail to satisfy the criteria for a group. But then the projection seems to lump them all with ENF/EAPN, which is highly unlikely. Note though they only project TBP at 12 seats, where it's looking like they'll get a fair few more than that so the EFDD could potentially continue. The reality is we won't know what the groups are likely to look like until after the election.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
2011 was our Dieppe, soon we'll have our Operation Neptune.
Had to google that as I always thought it was Overlord, could cause some armament in a pub quiz unless you meant the early 90’s computer game
So Overlord was the battle but Neptune was the landings? Never knew that.
Easy explainer
Overlord = The plan to liberate the whole of Normandy.
Neptune = The landings phase.
Now let me introduce you to Operation Fortitude.
Wasn’t there a good film/book with a dead body which claimed it was about misleading the Germans ?
Yes.
Fortitude was so bloody good that the Nazis still believed in July 1944 that the Normandy landings were a diversion from the real landings at Pas-de-Calais, and would be led by FUSAG, a fictitious army group commanded by a real general, Patton.
If Brexit and Labour are neck and neck, they could both rise further, as the former cannibalises Leave voters, and the latter Remain voters, who want to deny victory to the other side.
I think that may be correct. Vote Labour to stop Farage might encourage turnout amongst a section of the Labour vote. And sway some potential Remain-inclined defectors. If they were clever enough to run with it.
Finally: when you say "encourage inward investment", what is it that you think the government could do? I'm the CEO of a insurance technology company based in LA and London. What could they do for me to encourage me to invest my incremental investment dollar in London or Leeds*? (Answers on a postcard please.)
Isn’t the Brexit party in the EFDD - how come they are shown as zero? I presume they are part of the unaffiliated?
I know the Italian five star movement wanted to move on but they haven’t found sufficient allies yet so might logically link up with Farage again. But if they don’t get seven nations MEPs to join they can’t form a group anyway.
If of course Farage isn’t leader of a group in Brussels he won’t be able to make his ‘prime time’ speeches in future so will be a much diminished figure in the new parliament. Z
They are shown as zero because according to this projection they would fail to satisfy the criteria for a group. But then the projection seems to lump them all with ENF/EAPN, which is highly unlikely. Note though they only project TBP at 12 seats, where it's looking like they'll get a fair few more than that so the EFDD could potentially continue. The reality is we won't know what the groups are likely to look like until after the election.
I think they're still including Fidesz with the EPP which seems unlikely to me.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
@Nick Palmer, yes, it's striking just how similar the scores for the Brexit Party and Labour are to what they were five years ago. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
If Brexit and Labour are neck and neck, they could both rise further, as the former cannibalises Leave voters, and the latter Remain voters, who want to deny victory to the other side.
Crushing Chuka is high on the priority list for Corbyn
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
Brexit will happen, but the bitter irony is that it will be delivered contrary to the will of the people.
True . The poll also showed a 12 point lead for Remain over Leave in another EU ref . The will of the people guff that’s been cremated looks even more pathetic given poll after poll for the last 18 months shows not a single lead for the Leave side .
If Brexit and Labour are neck and neck, they could both rise further, as the former cannibalises Leave voters, and the latter Remain voters, who want to deny victory to the other side.
I think that may be correct. Vote Labour to stop Farage might encourage turnout amongst a section of the Labour vote. And sway some potential Remain-inclined defectors. If they were clever enough to run with it.
While vote Brexit Party to stop Corbyn topping the poll might also sway some of the remaining Tories and UKIP voters
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
If a second referendum were held between the options of leaving the EU on the prime minister’s deal or remaining in the EU, 46% say they would vote to remain (unchanged on a fortnight ago) while 34% would vote to leave (down 4%).
Nearly half of those polled thought Theresa May should resign either once the withdrawal agreement has been passed or sooner, with only 14% believing she should continue as prime minister and lead the second phase of the Brexit negotiations before resigning.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
Brexit will happen, but the bitter irony is that it will be delivered contrary to the will of the people.
True . The poll also showed a 12 point lead for Remain over Leave in another EU ref . The will of the people guff that’s been cremated looks even more pathetic given poll after poll for the last 18 months shows not a single lead for the Leave side .
It's been pointed out to you previously that some polls have indeed put Leave ahead over that period.
Opinium's series has shown leaving without a deal neck and neck with Remain since the start of the year. It's leave with a deal that usually trails Remain.
Still, we'll get an idea of what the public think in a few weeks' time. If Remain is as popular as you believe, the pro-Remain parties will do very well.
If a second referendum were held between the options of leaving the EU on the prime minister’s deal or remaining in the EU, 46% say they would vote to remain (unchanged on a fortnight ago) while 34% would vote to leave (down 4%).
Nearly half of those polled thought Theresa May should resign either once the withdrawal agreement has been passed or sooner, with only 14% believing she should continue as prime minister and lead the second phase of the Brexit negotiations before resigning.
If a second referendum were held between the options of leaving the EU on the prime minister’s deal or remaining in the EU, 46% say they would vote to remain (unchanged on a fortnight ago) while 34% would vote to leave (down 4%).
Nearly half of those polled thought Theresa May should resign either once the withdrawal agreement has been passed or sooner, with only 14% believing she should continue as prime minister and lead the second phase of the Brexit negotiations before resigning.
Many leave voters dont appear to regard Mays deal as truly leaving - hence the Brexit party polling so well.
This academic study the Express has published today - I haven’t of course validated from source - suggests its remain 52 vs no deal 48 if those are the options. A lot closer.
If Brexit and Labour are neck and neck, they could both rise further, as the former cannibalises Leave voters, and the latter Remain voters, who want to deny victory to the other side.
I think that may be correct. Vote Labour to stop Farage might encourage turnout amongst a section of the Labour vote. And sway some potential Remain-inclined defectors. If they were clever enough to run with it.
While vote Brexit Party to stop Corbyn topping the poll might also sway some of the remaining Tories and UKIP voters
True. Which is why I thought @SeanF was correct, and that both Labour and Brexit could go higher. Particularly if it remains neck and neck, in a squeeze on the minor parties. Which in this case would include the Tories.
If Brexit and Labour are neck and neck, they could both rise further, as the former cannibalises Leave voters, and the latter Remain voters, who want to deny victory to the other side.
I think that may be correct. Vote Labour to stop Farage might encourage turnout amongst a section of the Labour vote. And sway some potential Remain-inclined defectors. If they were clever enough to run with it.
While vote Brexit Party to stop Corbyn topping the poll might also sway some of the remaining Tories and UKIP voters
True. Which is why I thought @SeanF was correct, and that both Labour and Brexit could go higher. Particularly if it remains neck and neck, in a squeeze on the minor parties. Which in this case would include the Tories.
It would be funny if they each won about 40% of the vote.
If Brexit and Labour are neck and neck, they could both rise further, as the former cannibalises Leave voters, and the latter Remain voters, who want to deny victory to the other side.
I think that may be correct. Vote Labour to stop Farage might encourage turnout amongst a section of the Labour vote. And sway some potential Remain-inclined defectors. If they were clever enough to run with it.
While vote Brexit Party to stop Corbyn topping the poll might also sway some of the remaining Tories and UKIP voters
Whilst polls give an indication of how people may vote I would look for evidence of how motivated different groups are to actually vote. If you have ever “knocked up” on EU Election Day you would understand. My guess is that all parties will struggle to get the vote out leaving the result unpredictable
If a second referendum were held between the options of leaving the EU on the prime minister’s deal or remaining in the EU, 46% say they would vote to remain (unchanged on a fortnight ago) while 34% would vote to leave (down 4%).
Nearly half of those polled thought Theresa May should resign either once the withdrawal agreement has been passed or sooner, with only 14% believing she should continue as prime minister and lead the second phase of the Brexit negotiations before resigning.
Many leave voters dont appear to regard Mays deal as truly leaving - hence the Brexit party polling so well.
This academic study the Express has published today - I haven’t of course validated from source - suggests its remain 52 vs no deal 48 if those are the options. A lot closer.
'Mrs May’s deal was the least popular with just 13.5 percent preference. Jeremy Corbyn’s version of a so-called soft Brexit was the second to be eliminated with 14.1 percent of the votes'. However add either of those options to No Deal and you would get a clear majority for Leave
If Brexit and Labour are neck and neck, they could both rise further, as the former cannibalises Leave voters, and the latter Remain voters, who want to deny victory to the other side.
I think that may be correct. Vote Labour to stop Farage might encourage turnout amongst a section of the Labour vote. And sway some potential Remain-inclined defectors. If they were clever enough to run with it.
While vote Brexit Party to stop Corbyn topping the poll might also sway some of the remaining Tories and UKIP voters
True. Which is why I thought @SeanF was correct, and that both Labour and Brexit could go higher. Particularly if it remains neck and neck, in a squeeze on the minor parties. Which in this case would include the Tories.
Yep there are a number of regions where the only sane vote choice is Labour or Farage, anything else is an obviously wasted vote.
The North East is definitely in that position, it's possible that Wales and the East Midlands are the same..
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
Brexit will happen, but the bitter irony is that it will be delivered contrary to the will of the people.
True . The poll also showed a 12 point lead for Remain over Leave in another EU ref . The will of the people guff that’s been cremated looks even more pathetic given poll after poll for the last 18 months shows not a single lead for the Leave side .
The only reason support for Leave is down is because the underhanded sabotage of Remainers, combined with completely unbalanced coverage by the BBC, has made a small fraction of Leavers disillusioned with the whole political process of it. As soon as purdah started last time, the gap started to close, as it would in a second referendum.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
Brexit will happen, but the bitter irony is that it will be delivered contrary to the will of the people.
True . The poll also showed a 12 point lead for Remain over Leave in another EU ref . The will of the people guff that’s been cremated looks even more pathetic given poll after poll for the last 18 months shows not a single lead for the Leave side .
The only reason support for Leave is down is because the underhanded sabotage of Remainers, combined with completely unbalanced coverage by the BBC, has made a small fraction of Leavers disillusioned with the whole political process of it. As soon as purdah started last time, the gap started to close, as it would in a second referendum.
It is never ever ever Leavers’ fault.
Their rank incompetence and manifest complete cluelessness about what they actually want clearly has nothing to do with Leavers’ inability to forge a consensus for their policy.
If a second referendum were held between the options of leaving the EU on the prime minister’s deal or remaining in the EU, 46% say they would vote to remain (unchanged on a fortnight ago) while 34% would vote to leave (down 4%).
Nearly half of those polled thought Theresa May should resign either once the withdrawal agreement has been passed or sooner, with only 14% believing she should continue as prime minister and lead the second phase of the Brexit negotiations before resigning.
Many leave voters dont appear to regard Mays deal as truly leaving - hence the Brexit party polling so well.
This academic study the Express has published today - I haven’t of course validated from source - suggests its remain 52 vs no deal 48 if those are the options. A lot closer.
'Mrs May’s deal was the least popular with just 13.5 percent preference. Jeremy Corbyn’s version of a so-called soft Brexit was the second to be eliminated with 14.1 percent of the votes'. However add either of those options to No Deal and you would get a clear majority for Leave
Odd wording - "Research was achieved to shed light", "5000 candidates"? It seems to have been done by STV, but there is no explanation of who was asked or how the various options were put to them, nor what the initial preference share was of Remain or Hard Leave.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
Brexit will happen, but the bitter irony is that it will be delivered contrary to the will of the people.
True . The poll also showed a 12 point lead for Remain over Leave in another EU ref . The will of the people guff that’s been cremated looks even more pathetic given poll after poll for the last 18 months shows not a single lead for the Leave side .
The only reason support for Leave is down is because the underhanded sabotage of Remainers, combined with completely unbalanced coverage by the BBC, has made a small fraction of Leavers disillusioned with the whole political process of it. As soon as purdah started last time, the gap started to close, as it would in a second referendum.
If a second referendum were held between the options of leaving the EU on the prime minister’s deal or remaining in the EU, 46% say they would vote to remain (unchanged on a fortnight ago) while 34% would vote to leave (down 4%).
Nearly half of those polled thought Theresa May should resign either once the withdrawal agreement has been passed or sooner, with only 14% believing she should continue as prime minister and lead the second phase of the Brexit negotiations before resigning.
Many leave voters dont appear to regard Mays deal as truly leaving - hence the Brexit party polling so well.
This academic study the Express has published today - I haven’t of course validated from source - suggests its remain 52 vs no deal 48 if those are the options. A lot closer.
'Mrs May’s deal was the least popular with just 13.5 percent preference. Jeremy Corbyn’s version of a so-called soft Brexit was the second to be eliminated with 14.1 percent of the votes'. However add either of those options to No Deal and you would get a clear majority for Leave
Odd wording - "Research was achieved to shed light", "5000 candidates"? It seems to have been done by STV, but there is no explanation of who was asked or how the various options were put to them, nor what the initial preference share was of Remain or Hard Leave.
Yes, seems more like an academic study than a poll
Am I reading this correctly? Nick Timothy is now urging the Tories to rename themselves the National Party and go after the English rural redneck vote. I'm amazed he thinks such a demographic even exists, let alone be capable of winning you an election.
That would be the same Nick Timothy who was one of May’s most toxic advisers and wrote the toxic 2017 Tory Manifesto. Best ignored.
It might have been toxic,
But at least it was honest about the challenges of paying for an ageing population.
It seems the best way to gain votes is simply to lie to the people about the challenges ahead.
Not really. That is what Labour do. Springing it on the electorate as a surprise without any attempt at spending reform and whilst most people are having an erosion to living standards caused by Gov indirect tax hikes and lack of productivity based pay rises was crass politics and got the treatment it deserved.
Many leave voters dont appear to regard Mays deal as truly leaving
And yet in the end even Boris and JRM agreed that May's deal is indeed truly leaving, even if it is not a leave they prefer compared to most other types.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
Brexit will happen, but the bitter irony is that it will be delivered contrary to the will of the people.
True . The poll also showed a 12 point lead for Remain over Leave in another EU ref . The will of the people guff that’s been cremated looks even more pathetic given poll after poll for the last 18 months shows not a single lead for the Leave side .
The only reason support for Leave is down is because the underhanded sabotage of Remainers, combined with completely unbalanced coverage by the BBC, has made a small fraction of Leavers disillusioned with the whole political process of it. As soon as purdah started last time, the gap started to close, as it would in a second referendum.
That being the 'only' reason for support being down strikes me as somewhat optimistic. And is sabotage only underhanded when done by Remainers, given there's been plenty of sabotage by leavers too?
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
Brexit will happen, but the bitter irony is that it will be delivered contrary to the will of the people.
True . The poll also showed a 12 point lead for Remain over Leave in another EU ref . The will of the people guff that’s been cremated looks even more pathetic given poll after poll for the last 18 months shows not a single lead for the Leave side .
The only reason support for Leave is down is because the underhanded sabotage of Remainers, combined with completely unbalanced coverage by the BBC, has made a small fraction of Leavers disillusioned with the whole political process of it. As soon as purdah started last time, the gap started to close, as it would in a second referendum.
That being the 'only' reason for support being down strikes me as somewhat optimistic. And is sabotage only underhanded when done by Remainers, given there's been plenty of sabotage by leavers too?
Every Leaver has supported either Deal or No Deal, which implements the result of the referendum. If Remainers had done the same, we would have been out by now. This is especially true of the Allens, Umunnas, Soubrys of this world, who promised to respect the referendum and then put two fingers up to the electorate after they got reelected.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
Brexit will happen, but the bitter irony is that it will be delivered contrary to the will of the people.
True . The poll also showed a 12 point lead for Remain over Leave in another EU ref . The will of the people guff that’s been cremated looks even more pathetic given poll after poll for the last 18 months shows not a single lead for the Leave side .
The only reason support for Leave is down is because the underhanded sabotage of Remainers, combined with completely unbalanced coverage by the BBC, has made a small fraction of Leavers disillusioned with the whole political process of it. As soon as purdah started last time, the gap started to close, as it would in a second referendum.
That being the 'only' reason for support being down strikes me as somewhat optimistic. And is sabotage only underhanded when done by Remainers, given there's been plenty of sabotage by leavers too?
Every Leaver has supported either Deal or No Deal, which implements the result of the referendum. If Remainers had done the same, we would have been out by now. This is especially true of the Allens, Umunnas, Soubrys of this world, who promised to respect the referendum and then put two fingers up to the electorate after they got reelected.
If Leavers are allowed to oppose the deal, so are Remainers.
Hammond has simply pursued Osborne’s policies - allowing Gov spending to escalate and funding it by frozen allowances and big hikes in indirect taxes. Neither did anything to attract inward investment, boost productivity or champion consumer rights and both have penalised savers to favour borrowers. Both were indistinguishable from Blairite Labour. Hammond has been negligent in combatting McDonnell’s Mickey Mouse economics and has given McDonnell free rein in peddling his economic illiteracy. He’s useless.
Government spending is rising because we have an ageing population. Every year the number of old people rises, and therefore the proportion of workers' income that needs to be diverted to pay for their keep (and increasingly) healthcare.
Old age pensions and the NHS will continue to grow as a proportion of our economy, and that's almost impossible to counter.
You don't have to go too far in the past (like the 1980s) to find them taking up less than a third of central government spending. They now take up almost half. (£303bn out of £638bn in fiscal 2018, or 48%.)
Do you have some magic plan to reduce pension payments? Or cut NHS spending? (Or for that matter the amount the government spends on debt interest.)
Because, absent healthcare and pensions, government spending has been falling. Not like in Ireland or Spain or Portugal, sure, where there across the board cuts in civil servant incomes of 15% or more, but the pressure on overall spending levels from an ageing population is relentless and inevitable.
It’s only impossible to counter if you don’t you don’t grow the economy faster than Gov spending or if you don’t means test benefits or introduce state health insurance like most developed economies. The NHS was never intended to be free at the point of delivery for everyone for everything and the waste is enormous - litigation, locums, drugs procured then scrapped, micro management of doctors etc.
Pushing up indirect taxes to base tax on consumption would be fine but not if you are leaving direct tax unchanged and freezing allowances. That’s the worst of both worlds.
Saving rates have collapsed and household debt is now higher than it was before the crash.
R&D is internationally uncompetitive the U.K. Osborne’s tax credit scheme works fine for pharma but is a disaster for manufacturing. As a former PLC board director we nearly always invested overseas rather than the U.K. because the U.K. was relatively uncompetitive - poor infrastructure, high energy costs, lack of employee productivity, uncompetitive R&D etc etc
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
Brexit will happen, but the bitter irony is that it will be delivered contrary to the will of the people.
True . The poll also showed a 12 point lead for Remain over Leave in another EU ref . The will of the people guff that’s been cremated looks even more pathetic given poll after poll for the last 18 months shows not a single lead for the Leave side .
The only reason support for Leave is down is because the underhanded sabotage of Remainers, combined with completely unbalanced coverage by the BBC, has made a small fraction of Leavers disillusioned with the whole political process of it. As soon as purdah started last time, the gap started to close, as it would in a second referendum.
That being the 'only' reason for support being down strikes me as somewhat optimistic. And is sabotage only underhanded when done by Remainers, given there's been plenty of sabotage by leavers too?
Every Leaver has supported either Deal or No Deal, which implements the result of the referendum. If Remainers had done the same, we would have been out by now. This is especially true of the Allens, Umunnas, Soubrys of this world, who promised to respect the referendum and then put two fingers up to the electorate after they got reelected.
If Leavers are allowed to oppose the deal, so are Remainers.
They are welcome to oppose the deal as long as they support another form of possible Brexit.
Am I reading this correctly? Nick Timothy is now urging the Tories to rename themselves the National Party and go after the English rural redneck vote. I'm amazed he thinks such a demographic even exists, let alone be capable of winning you an election.
That would be the same Nick Timothy who was one of May’s most toxic advisers and wrote the toxic 2017 Tory Manifesto. Best ignored.
It might have been toxic,
But at least it was honest about the challenges of paying for an ageing population.
It seems the best way to gain votes is simply to lie to the people about the challenges ahead.
Of course.
That policy may well have needed work, and they only dared mention it because they thought they would win big, but I did appreciate that they were willing to mention it.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
Brexit will happen, but the bitter irony is that it will be delivered contrary to the will of the people.
True . The poll also showed a 12 point lead for Remain over Leave in another EU ref . The will of the people guff that’s been cremated looks even more pathetic given poll after poll for the last 18 months shows not a single lead for the Leave side .
The only reason support for Leave is down is because the underhanded sabotage of Remainers, combined with completely unbalanced coverage by the BBC, has made a small fraction of Leavers disillusioned with the whole political process of it. As soon as purdah started last time, the gap started to close, as it would in a second referendum.
It is never ever ever Leavers’ fault.
Their rank incompetence and manifest complete cluelessness about what they actually want clearly has nothing to do with Leavers’ inability to forge a consensus for their policy.
It is impossible to forge a consensus when Remainers repeatedly lie about their position to get reelected and oppose every form of Brexit.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
Brexit will happen, but the bitter irony is that it will be delivered contrary to the will of the people.
True . The poll also showed a 12 point lead for Remain over Leave in another EU ref . The will of the people guff that’s been cremated looks even more pathetic given poll after poll for the last 18 months shows not a single lead for the Leave side .
The only reason support for Leave is down is because the underhanded sabotage of Remainers, combined with completely unbalanced coverage by the BBC, has made a small fraction of Leavers disillusioned with the whole political process of it. As soon as purdah started last time, the gap started to close, as it would in a second referendum.
That being the 'only' reason for support being down strikes me as somewhat optimistic. And is sabotage only underhanded when done by Remainers, given there's been plenty of sabotage by leavers too?
Every Leaver has supported either Deal or No Deal, which implements the result of the referendum. If Remainers had done the same, we would have been out by now. This is especially true of the Allens, Umunnas, Soubrys of this world, who promised to respect the referendum and then put two fingers up to the electorate after they got reelected.
If Leavers are allowed to oppose the deal, so are Remainers.
They are welcome to oppose the deal as long as they support another form of possible Brexit.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
Brexit will happen, but the bitter irony is that it will be delivered contrary to the will of the people.
True . The poll also showed a 12 point lead for Remain over Leave in another EU ref . The will of the people guff that’s been cremated looks even more pathetic given poll after poll for the last 18 months shows not a single lead for the Leave side .
The only reason support for Leave is down is because the underhanded sabotage of Remainers, combined with completely unbalanced coverage by the BBC, has made a small fraction of Leavers disillusioned with the whole political process of it. As soon as purdah started last time, the gap started to close, as it would in a second referendum.
It is never ever ever Leavers’ fault.
Their rank incompetence and manifest complete cluelessness about what they actually want clearly has nothing to do with Leavers’ inability to forge a consensus for their policy.
It is impossible to forge a consensus when Remainers repeatedly lie about their position to get reelected and oppose every form of Brexit.
Let’s assume you’re right (you’re not, and your mad paranoia is symptomatic of all the problems Leavers have got themselves into, but let’s put that to one side). Somehow you have to deal with the fact that half the population do not share your vision for the country. You have to find a way of persuading some of them.
It was always going to be tough, given the way that Leave won by telling xenophobic lies. But they haven’t even tried. The failure to make any attempt to secure the grudging acquiescence or Remain voters is the most extraordinary failure of all of Leavers’ failures.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
Brexit will happen, but the bitter irony is that it will be delivered contrary to the will of the people.
True . The poll also showed a 12 point lead for Remain over Leave in another EU ref . The will of the people guff that’s been cremated looks even more pathetic given poll after poll for the last 18 months shows not a single lead for the Leave side .
The only reason support for Leave is down is because the underhanded sabotage of Remainers, combined with completely unbalanced coverage by the BBC, has made a small fraction of Leavers disillusioned with the whole political process of it. As soon as purdah started last time, the gap started to close, as it would in a second referendum.
That being the 'only' reason for support being down strikes me as somewhat optimistic. And is sabotage only underhanded when done by Remainers, given there's been plenty of sabotage by leavers too?
Every Leaver has supported either Deal or No Deal, which implements the result of the referendum. If Remainers had done the same, we would have been out by now. This is especially true of the Allens, Umunnas, Soubrys of this world, who promised to respect the referendum and then put two fingers up to the electorate after they got reelected.
If Leavers are allowed to oppose the deal, so are Remainers.
They are welcome to oppose the deal as long as they support another form of possible Brexit.
As Labour do.
As the Labour leadership do. The issue is with the Remain backbenches.
Katharine Stewart Murray is an interesting woman. Duchess of Atholl in her spare time, militant *opponent* of women's suffrage, first Scottish woman MP. The circumstances of her resigning were: "She resigned the Conservative Whip first in 1935 over the India Bill and the "national-socialist tendency" of the government's domestic policy. Resuming the Whip, she resigned it again in 1938 in opposition to Neville Chamberlain's policy of appeasement of Adolf Hitler and to the Anglo-Italian agreement. According to her biography, A Working Partnership she was then deselected by her local party. She took Stewardship of the Chiltern Hundreds on 28 November 1938. She stood unsuccessfully in the subsequent by-election as an Independent candidate."
Nice to see Sunil fulfilling his destiny and taking his rightful place at OGHs side.
You're welcome! Would have replied earlier if I weren't at the Epping Ongar Diesel Gala!
Did they have a Deltic again this year?
No, not this time, only a Class 25 as guest, plus a Class 37, Class 31, Class 47, class 117 DMU and a Class 20. Class 45 on display, plus 03 shunter. There was also a 1959 tube stock driving car on display too. Oh, and the former LT electric loco L11 is in new bright yellow garb outside Epping Car Park!
Nice. I went a few years back when they had 55019. There is no more beautiful sight in the world than a class 55.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
Brexit will happen, but the bitter irony is that it will be delivered contrary to the will of the people.
True . The poll also showed a 12 point lead for Remain over Leave in another EU ref . The will of the people guff that’s been cremated looks even more pathetic given poll after poll for the last 18 months shows not a single lead for the Leave side .
The only reason support for Leave is down is because the underhanded sabotage of Remainers, combined with completely unbalanced coverage by the BBC, has made a small fraction of Leavers disillusioned with the whole political process of it. As soon as purdah started last time, the gap started to close, as it would in a second referendum.
That being the 'only' reason for support being down strikes me as somewhat optimistic. And is sabotage only underhanded when done by Remainers, given there's been plenty of sabotage by leavers too?
Every Leaver has supported either Deal or No Deal, which implements the result of the referendum. If Remainers had done the same, we would have been out by now. This is especially true of the Allens, Umunnas, Soubrys of this world, who promised to respect the referendum and then put two fingers up to the electorate after they got reelected.
If Leavers are allowed to oppose the deal, so are Remainers.
They are welcome to oppose the deal as long as they support another form of possible Brexit.
As Labour do.
As the Labour leadership do. The issue is with the Remain backbenches.
Labour backbenchers have by and large followed their leader’s line on Brexit.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
Brexit will happen, but the bitter irony is that it will be delivered contrary to the will of the people.
True . The poll also showed a 12 point lead for Remain over Leave in another EU ref . The will of the people guff that’s been cremated looks even more pathetic given poll after poll for the last 18 months shows not a single lead for the Leave side .
The only reason support for Leave is down is because the underhanded sabotage of Remainers, combined with completely unbalanced coverage by the BBC, has made a small fraction of Leavers disillusioned with the whole political process of it. As soon as purdah started last time, the gap started to close, as it would in a second referendum.
That being the 'only' reason for support being down strikes me as somewhat optimistic. And is sabotage only underhanded when done by Remainers, given there's been plenty of sabotage by leavers too?
Every Leaver has supported either Deal or No Deal, which implements the result of the referendum. If Remainers had done the same, we would have been out by now. This is especially true of the Allens, Umunnas, Soubrys of this world, who promised to respect the referendum and then put two fingers up to the electorate after they got reelected.
If Leavers are allowed to oppose the deal, so are Remainers.
They are welcome to oppose the deal as long as they support another form of possible Brexit.
As Labour do.
As the Labour leadership do. The issue is with the Remain backbenches.
Labour backbenchers have by and large followed their leader’s line on Brexit.
Then how come so many voted against every Brexit option in the indicative votes?
If Brexit and Labour are neck and neck, they could both rise further, as the former cannibalises Leave voters, and the latter Remain voters, who want to deny victory to the other side.
I think that may be correct. Vote Labour to stop Farage might encourage turnout amongst a section of the Labour vote. And sway some potential Remain-inclined defectors. If they were clever enough to run with it.
While vote Brexit Party to stop Corbyn topping the poll might also sway some of the remaining Tories and UKIP voters
True. Which is why I thought @SeanF was correct, and that both Labour and Brexit could go higher. Particularly if it remains neck and neck, in a squeeze on the minor parties. Which in this case would include the Tories.
Yep there are a number of regions where the only sane vote choice is Labour or Farage, anything else is an obviously wasted vote.
The North East is definitely in that position, it's possible that Wales and the East Midlands are the same..
You are right. I want to vote for one of the clear Remain parties. But living in the Northeast, with only 3 representatives, there really is only one choice for me.
Comments
2011 was our Dieppe, soon we'll have our Operation Neptune.
Old age pensions and the NHS will continue to grow as a proportion of our economy, and that's almost impossible to counter.
You don't have to go too far in the past (like the 1980s) to find them taking up less than a third of central government spending. They now take up almost half. (£303bn out of £638bn in fiscal 2018, or 48%.)
Do you have some magic plan to reduce pension payments? Or cut NHS spending? (Or for that matter the amount the government spends on debt interest.)
Because, absent healthcare and pensions, government spending has been falling. Not like in Ireland or Spain or Portugal, sure, where there across the board cuts in civil servant incomes of 15% or more, but the pressure on overall spending levels from an ageing population is relentless and inevitable.
There's a reason why Chancellors (sensible ones, at least) prefer to push up indirect taxes, and that's because it impacts the savings rate. Higher savings rates mean a lower current account deficit, because indirect taxes are taxes on consumption. And we consume too much.
I would argue that both Howe and Clarke did more to encourage domestic investment, but subsidising saving over spending. (But unlike the adminstrations of Brown or Osborne) there have not been dramatic cuts to savings encouragement schemes.)
Finally: when you say "encourage inward investment", what is it that you think the government could do? I'm the CEO of a insurance technology company based in LA and London. What could they do for me to encourage me to invest my incremental investment dollar in London or Leeds*? (Answers on a postcard please.)
* The UK government does actually have some fairly sensible policies. There's EIS and SEIS for encouraging early stage investment. There's the R&D tax credit to help fund spending on tech. But many of the things that we could do - like offering tax holidays for multinationals to invest in the UK would be incredibly unpopular. The zeitgeist is not in favour of allowing Amazon, Facebook, Apple and Google to pay less tax (which means, obviously, more taxes to be paid by domestic companies.)
BTW, hope that stuff I sent you came in handy.
Just listening to one of the podcasts. Enjoying the comparisons of Hitler to Trump.
I know the Italian five star movement wanted to move on but they haven’t found sufficient allies yet so might logically link up with Farage again. But if they don’t get seven nations MEPs to join they can’t form a group anyway.
If of course Farage isn’t leader of a group in Brussels he won’t be able to make his ‘prime time’ speeches in future so will be a much diminished figure in the new parliament. Z
But at least it was honest about the challenges of paying for an ageing population.
It seems the best way to gain votes is simply to lie to the people about the challenges ahead.
Edit - just seen your post - looks like you did!
Dreadful!
Bear in mind that Theresa May was still saying we'd have a trade deal with the EU agreed during the Article 50 period in June 2017 so it's not such an outrageous thing for you to have said.
Overlord = The plan to liberate the whole of Normandy.
Neptune = The landings phase.
Now let me introduce you to Operation Fortitude.
(Glad it helped, although I'm now wondering about this thread.)
In the end if you can get a few stragglers and independents to make a group from seven nations it’s usually doable. They all get more cash than by being unaffiliated so they can usually be persuaded.
The national lists many nations use can provide a great variety of small parties to work with.
Why we shouldn’t hate pineapple as a pizza topping.
Tim Carman delves into the world of the much-maligned topping that inspires passion around the globe.
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/food-and-drink/pineapple-pizza-topping-hawaiian-debate-food-a8884211.html
Fortitude was so bloody good that the Nazis still believed in July 1944 that the Normandy landings were a diversion from the real landings at Pas-de-Calais, and would be led by FUSAG, a fictitious army group commanded by a real general, Patton.
If they were clever enough to run with it.
https://www.express.co.uk/celebrity-news/1113313/Andy-Murray-Judy-Murray-Twitter-Scottish-bank-notes-news-latest
If a second referendum were held between the options of leaving the EU on the prime minister’s deal or remaining in the EU, 46% say they would vote to remain (unchanged on a fortnight ago) while 34% would vote to leave (down 4%).
Nearly half of those polled thought Theresa May should resign either once the withdrawal agreement has been passed or sooner, with only 14% believing she should continue as prime minister and lead the second phase of the Brexit negotiations before resigning.
Opinium's series has shown leaving without a deal neck and neck with Remain since the start of the year. It's leave with a deal that usually trails Remain.
Still, we'll get an idea of what the public think in a few weeks' time. If Remain is as popular as you believe, the pro-Remain parties will do very well.
This academic study the Express has published today - I haven’t of course validated from source - suggests its remain 52 vs no deal 48 if those are the options. A lot closer.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1119826/brexit-news-theresa-may-labour-jeremy-corbyn-poll-soft-brexit-no-deal-boris-johnson
The North East is definitely in that position, it's possible that Wales and the East Midlands are the same..
Their rank incompetence and manifest complete cluelessness about what they actually want clearly has nothing to do with Leavers’ inability to forge a consensus for their policy.
http://www.facebook.com/GrumpyOldFolk/photos/a.538738939482730/2279919088698031/
Mind you, at this moment that goes a long way towards summing up how I feel about everything.
Pushing up indirect taxes to base tax on consumption would be fine but not if you are leaving direct tax unchanged and freezing allowances. That’s the worst of both worlds.
Saving rates have collapsed and household debt is now higher than it was before the crash.
R&D is internationally uncompetitive the U.K. Osborne’s tax credit scheme works fine for pharma but is a disaster for manufacturing. As a former PLC board director we nearly always invested overseas rather than the U.K. because the U.K. was relatively uncompetitive - poor infrastructure, high energy costs, lack of employee productivity, uncompetitive R&D etc etc
That policy may well have needed work, and they only dared mention it because they thought they would win big, but I did appreciate that they were willing to mention it.
It was always going to be tough, given the way that Leave won by telling xenophobic lies. But they haven’t even tried. The failure to make any attempt to secure the grudging acquiescence or Remain voters is the most extraordinary failure of all of Leavers’ failures.