Awful for Change UK. 4% would probably not even win them a seat in the South East.
This is the first poll to give the pro-Brexit parties 50%, but OGH has linked to a thread by Martin Boon, which warns of the possibility that support for the Brexit Party could be a bit overstated.
And to be fair OGH may well be right. We know polling can get it significantly wrong and the assumption that that will always be overstating Remain support is, I believe, dangerous for Leavers. The only thing that we can really count on are actual results.
Looking back to polls taken at a similar time in 2014 there's a couple of consistent differences;
Labour VI skews younger than it used to according to subsamples.
Older voters are much less likely to say they are certain to vote now than in 2014, by between 10-20%. In 2014 Older voters grew more certain as polling day approached.
In some cases younger voters say they're more likely to vote than at a similar point 5 years ago.
As we get closer to polling day will be interesting to note any shifts.
Awful for Change UK. 4% would probably not even win them a seat in the South East.
This is the first poll to give the pro-Brexit parties 50%, but OGH has linked to a thread by Martin Boon, which warns of the possibility that support for the Brexit Party could be a bit overstated.
And to be fair OGH may well be right. We know polling can get it significantly wrong and the assumption that that will always be overstating Remain support is, I believe, dangerous for Leavers. The only thing that we can really count on are actual results.
This is the first poll to give the pro-Brexit parties 50%, but OGH has linked to a thread by Martin Boon, which warns of the possibility that support for the Brexit Party could be a bit overstated.
A counterfactual to Martin Boon's theory however is that Yougov were one of the few pollsters not to overstate UKIP at the last EP elections, and they've had TBP on 27% too.
How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Why have you changed your mind?
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely
How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Why have you changed your mind?
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely
I think I'm going to wait for the results of both the local and Euro elections before deciding what's likely to happen.
How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Why have you changed your mind?
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely
I think I'm going to wait for the results of both the local and Euro elections before deciding what's likely to happen.
Very wise but TM must be near the end of her tenure
Seven Climate Change candidates are standing in London, but they're each standing as an independent rather than as part of a combined ticket. This means they're paying a total of £35,000 in deposits instead of £5,000. They're also competing against the Greens.
Presumably they have £ signs and a good private education behind them to be able to waste £30k. Won’t they all split the vote too?
It's the sort of shenanigans that would make a more paranoid person than I want to see the CCTV footage near the Russian embassy...
How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Why have you changed your mind?
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely
I think I'm going to wait for the results of both the local and Euro elections before deciding what's likely to happen.
Very wise but TM must be near the end of her tenure
We have been having crazy weather... cue for a song!
Awful for Change UK. 4% would probably not even win them a seat in the South East.
This is the first poll to give the pro-Brexit parties 50%, but OGH has linked to a thread by Martin Boon, which warns of the possibility that support for the Brexit Party could be a bit overstated.
I would have thought that the long running opposition to leave and the demographic associated with it (generally younger, wealthier, more likely to be net-connected) would have meant that remain was more likely to be overstated/over-represented.
According to Rentoul it is older Leavers who are being over quota very quickly.
How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Why have you changed your mind?
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely
Support for Farage would be much diminished in any General Election - as evidenced by how UKIP performed in the 2014 EU elections compared with the 2015 GE less than a year later. As has often been the case with the LibDems in the past, much of their vote is 'easy come- easy go'.
I would have thought that much of the residual Tory vote is likely to be Remain -inclined - with Leavers having largely switched to Brexit Party.
Nah. There will still be many Leavers who won't support Farage or - more likely - do not support his position of a No Deal Brexit. Just as in the referendum itself it is very possible to think Farage is an idiot who should not be voted for but still support Leaving the EU.
How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Why have you changed your mind?
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely
Support for Farage would be much diminished in any General Election - as evidenced by how UKIP performed in the 2014 EU elections compared with the 2015 GE less than a year later. As has often been the case with the LibDems in the past, much of their vote is 'easy come- easy go'.
I would expect under Boris the vote would return to the conservatives.
How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Why have you changed your mind?
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely
Support for Farage would be much diminished in any General Election - as evidenced by how UKIP performed in the 2014 EU elections compared with the 2015 GE less than a year later. As has often been the case with the LibDems in the past, much of their vote is 'easy come- easy go'.
Provided we have left the EU by the next general election, if not the Brexit Party surge will continue.
In 2015 it was Cameron's promise to hold an EUref which kept the UKIP vote down, even so UKIP got 12%, almost half the 27% they got in the EU Parliament elections
Katharine Stewart Murray is an interesting woman. Duchess of Atholl in her spare time, militant *opponent* of women's suffrage, first Scottish woman MP. The circumstances of her resigning were: "She resigned the Conservative Whip first in 1935 over the India Bill and the "national-socialist tendency" of the government's domestic policy. Resuming the Whip, she resigned it again in 1938 in opposition to Neville Chamberlain's policy of appeasement of Adolf Hitler and to the Anglo-Italian agreement. According to her biography, A Working Partnership she was then deselected by her local party. She took Stewardship of the Chiltern Hundreds on 28 November 1938. She stood unsuccessfully in the subsequent by-election as an Independent candidate."
How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Why have you changed your mind?
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely
Glad to see you have seen the light Big G, though I think the WA will still get through, eventually, before May goes by the end of the year, probably with either the PD amended or Barnier and Varadkar agreeing some technical solution compromise on the backstop
How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Why have you changed your mind?
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely
Glad to see you have seen the light Big G, though I think the WA will still get through, eventually, before May goes by the end of the year, probably with either the PD amended or Barnier and Varadkar agreeing some technical solution compromise on the backstop
Not seen 'the light' as that would indicate I am converted which I am not. However, pragmatism and instinct have been my byword throughout my life and it does look increasingly likely
Labour and Brexit party neck and neck for the Euros, I think a few more Tories will shift to put Farage over the line. The Tories then need to win back those voters for the next general election
Chuka is not leader yet, Heidi Allen is, if Allen falls flat on her face in the Euros Chuka can take over once we have a Corbyn v Boris general election when it will be more fertile ground for CUK.
I would have thought that much of the residual Tory vote is likely to be Remain -inclined - with Leavers having largely switched to Brexit Party.
There are still a lot of us Leavers still with the Tories, at least for General Elections. The collapse will only truly happen if they stick with May or replace her with another Remainer.
Here are the missing four paragraphs, leading on directly from Leslie Haden-Guest's story:
In 1938, the Tory MP for Kinross & Western Perthshire, Katherine Stewart-Murray (Duchess of Atholl), resigned the whip over Tory policy regarding pre-war appeasement. She lost to the official Tory candidate in the by-election, though there were no other candidates. To date, The Duchess was the only female MP to resign/re-contest.
By contrast, in 1973, Dick Taverne, Labour MP for Lincoln, resigned from the party over Europe, presaging our current fractious political climate, and won his by-election as an Independent (albeit under the “Democratic Labour” tag). He retained the seat at the GE in February 1974, but lost in October the same year. Taverne would eventually join the SDP in the 1980s, and he is currently a LibDem peer.
Two early defectors from Party to X to Party Y who actually won their by-elections were Joseph Kenworthy and William Jowitt, both resigning from the Liberals to join Labour. Kenworthy joined Labour, presumably because Lloyd George wasn't radical enough, won his Kingston-upon-Hull Central by-election in 1926 and retained his seat at the 1929 General Election, while Jowitt, one of two MPs for multi-seat Preston, defected to Labour after the 1929 election (to become Attorney-General for England & Wales, no less). He won the by-election, but both Preston seats were won by the Tories at the 1931 General Election (though Jowitt didn't stand).
So, assuming that there isn't an imminent General Election, can we say that if the 11 Change UK MPs did resign and contest by-elections, do they they stand a statistical chance of re-election? I would stick my neck out and say yes, kind of! The caveat being, of course, that every Westminster seat (and every MP!) is different.
How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Why have you changed your mind?
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely
Glad to see you have seen the light Big G, though I think the WA will still get through, eventually, before May goes by the end of the year, probably with either the PD amended or Barnier and Varadkar agreeing some technical solution compromise on the backstop
Not seen 'the light' as that would indicate I am converted which I am not. However, pragmatism and instinct have been my byword throughout my life and it does look increasingly likely
Sensible, the key to the next general election is now whether Brexit Party voters go back to the Tories or not, especially with Labour only on 30-35% at best
How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Why have you changed your mind?
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely
Support for Farage would be much diminished in any General Election - as evidenced by how UKIP performed in the 2014 EU elections compared with the 2015 GE less than a year later. As has often been the case with the LibDems in the past, much of their vote is 'easy come- easy go'.
Not so much easy go, but horses for courses. LDs and Kippers get higher votes in Locals and Euros respectivly, where their core vote gets a good share of a lower turnout.
Broadly 2015 GE had twice the turnout of 2014 Euros. The Kipper share fell by 50% but the number of votes was similar.
How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Why have you changed your mind?
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely
Glad to see you have seen the light Big G, though I think the WA will still get through, eventually, before May goes by the end of the year, probably with either the PD amended or Barnier and Varadkar agreeing some technical solution compromise on the backstop
Not seen 'the light' as that would indicate I am converted which I am not. However, pragmatism and instinct have been my byword throughout my life and it does look increasingly likely
Sensible, the key to the next general election is now whether Brexit Party voters go back to the Tories or not, especially with Labour only on 30-35% at best
How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Why have you changed your mind?
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely
I think I'm going to wait for the results of both the local and Euro elections before deciding what's likely to happen.
Very wise but TM must be near the end of her tenure
We have been having crazy weather... cue for a song!
How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Why have you changed your mind?
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely
Glad to see you have seen the light Big G, though I think the WA will still get through, eventually, before May goes by the end of the year, probably with either the PD amended or Barnier and Varadkar agreeing some technical solution compromise on the backstop
Not seen 'the light' as that would indicate I am converted which I am not. However, pragmatism and instinct have been my byword throughout my life and it does look increasingly likely
Sensible, the key to the next general election is now whether Brexit Party voters go back to the Tories or not, especially with Labour only on 30-35% at best
Though Boris becoming leader would be just the filip that CHUK need. Their destiny is as a home for former Tory Remainers, a not insignificant demographic, 35% of the 2017 GE Tory vote.
How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Why have you changed your mind?
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely
Glad to see you have seen the light Big G, though I think the WA will still get through, eventually, before May goes by the end of the year, probably with either the PD amended or Barnier and Varadkar agreeing some technical solution compromise on the backstop
Not seen 'the light' as that would indicate I am converted which I am not. However, pragmatism and instinct have been my byword throughout my life and it does look increasingly likely
Sensible, the key to the next general election is now whether Brexit Party voters go back to the Tories or not, especially with Labour only on 30-35% at best
Though Boris becoming leader would be just the filip that CHUK need. Their destiny is as a home for former Tory Remainers, a not insignificant demographic, 35% of the 2017 GE Tory vote.
It depends. When TM stands down the subsequent leadership race will involve upto a dozen candidates and how they perform on tv and in the hustings will be vital to the winning candidate. If Boris wins both the mp selection and the membership I would expect the party to reunite to defeat Corbyn
don't bloody start that: British officer loses sense of allegiance and cooperates with evil empire with habit of backing grandiose construction projects, till plucky Lieut Farage RM parachutes in to save the day.
How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Why have you changed your mind?
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely
Support for Farage would be much diminished in any General Election - as evidenced by how UKIP performed in the 2014 EU elections compared with the 2015 GE less than a year later. As has often been the case with the LibDems in the past, much of their vote is 'easy come- easy go'.
Provided we have left the EU by the next general election, if not the Brexit Party surge will continue.
In 2015 it was Cameron's promise to hold an EUref which kept the UKIP vote down, even so UKIP got 12%, almost half the 27% they got in the EU Parliament elections
I disagree there and do believe that only a minority of voters will see Brexit as the key issue at a General Election. Cameron's commitment to a Referendum had already been made by the time of the 2014 EU elections but still failed to prevent a strong UKIP showing. Very little doubt their support will fall back sharply at any GE - whatever happens re-Brexit - as already evidenced by a much lower vote share in polls in response to such a question.
How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Why have you changed your mind?
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely
Support for Farage would be much diminished in any General Election - as evidenced by how UKIP performed in the 2014 EU elections compared with the 2015 GE less than a year later. As has often been the case with the LibDems in the past, much of their vote is 'easy come- easy go'.
Provided we have left the EU by the next general election, if not the Brexit Party surge will continue.
In 2015 it was Cameron's promise to hold an EUref which kept the UKIP vote down, even so UKIP got 12%, almost half the 27% they got in the EU Parliament elections
I would have thought that much of the residual Tory vote is likely to be Remain -inclined - with Leavers having largely switched to Brexit Party.
There are still a lot of us Leavers still with the Tories, at least for General Elections. The collapse will only truly happen if they stick with May or replace her with another Remainer.
I would expect the residual Tory vote for any EU election to be more Remain-inclined.
So, assuming that there isn't an imminent General Election, can we say that if the 11 Change UK MPs did resign and contest by-elections, do they they stand a statistical chance of re-election? I would stick my neck out and say yes, kind of! The caveat being, of course, that every Westminster seat (and every MP!) is different.
It seems obvious to me that there would be a selection bias. MPs who are confident of being re-elected are more likely to trigger by-elections than those not confident.
So you can't use the results of those elections to judge how likely it is in general for an MP to be re-elected (unless you're explicitly assuming that they will only call such a by-election because they have independently established that they have a good chance of being re-elected, but in that case the statistics are meaningless as the assumption is doing all the work).
Chuka is not leader yet, Heidi Allen is, if Allen falls flat on her face in the Euros Chuka can take over once we have a Corbyn v Boris general election when it will be more fertile ground for CUK.
You mean “When Allen fails...” She is very low calibre as a politician and has no policy platform to differentiate her new party from the LibDems. Given what she has said about the Tories, she’ll be more hated than Reckless. At least he had the decency to trigger a by-election when he left.
Labour and Brexit party neck and neck for the Euros, I think a few more Tories will shift to put Farage over the line. The Tories then need to win back those voters for the next general election
Not convinced that will happen. Farage might be an arrogant self publicist with no policy platform for a GE, but even with May gone, there is no good reason to vote Tory whilst the likes of Hammond, Clark, Gauke etc make the Tories indistinguishable from Blairite Labour.
The polls are encouragingly similar, and oddly not all that different to the last Euros - the Brexit Party has eaten most of UKIP, Labour is marginally up, ChUK has split the centrist vote. The only big change is the Tories losing a third of their voters to Brexit/UKIP. That reflects the fact that the Tories have a lot of people who really care about achieving Brexit, and Labour doesn't. Labour has a lot of people who care about defeating Brexit, but so far not enough to actually change party in significant numbers, mainly I think because they aren't single-issue voters as the Brexiteers have become.
Here are the missing four paragraphs, leading on directly from Leslie Haden-Guest's story:
In 1938, the Tory MP for Kinross & Western Perthshire, Katherine Stewart-Murray (Duchess of Atholl), resigned the whip over Tory policy regarding pre-war appeasement. She lost to the official Tory candidate in the by-election, though there were no other candidates. To date, The Duchess was the only female MP to resign/re-contest.
By contrast, in 1973, Dick Taverne, Labour MP for Lincoln, resigned from the party over Europe, presaging our current fractious political climate, and won his by-election as an Independent (albeit under the “Democratic Labour” tag). He retained the seat at the GE in February 1974, but lost in October the same year. Taverne would eventually join the SDP in the 1980s, and he is currently a LibDem peer.
Two early defectors from Party to X to Party Y who actually won their by-elections were Joseph Kenworthy and William Jowitt, both resigning from the Liberals to join Labour. Kenworthy joined Labour, presumably because Lloyd George wasn't radical enough, won his Kingston-upon-Hull Central by-election in 1926 and retained his seat at the 1929 General Election, while Jowitt, one of two MPs for multi-seat Preston, defected to Labour after the 1929 election (to become Attorney-General for England & Wales, no less). He won the by-election, but both Preston seats were won by the Tories at the 1931 General Election (though Jowitt didn't stand).
So, assuming that there isn't an imminent General Election, can we say that if the 11 Change UK MPs did resign and contest by-elections, do they they stand a statistical chance of re-election? I would stick my neck out and say yes, kind of! The caveat being, of course, that every Westminster seat (and every MP!) is different.
William Jowitt stood for a different seat in 1931 as a National Labour candidate, so ran for three different parties in the space of two years. Later rejoined Labour and became Lord Chancellor.
The polls are encouragingly similar, and oddly not all that different to the last Euros - the Brexit Party has eaten most of UKIP, Labour is marginally up, ChUK has split the centrist vote. The only big change is the Tories losing a third of their voters to Brexit/UKIP. That reflects the fact that the Tories have a lot of people who really care about achieving Brexit, and Labour doesn't. Labour has a lot of people who care about defeating Brexit, but so far not enough to actually change party in significant numbers, mainly I think because they aren't single-issue voters as the Brexiteers have become.
Indeed, the Brexit Party hitting the Tories more than Labour, CUK hitting both the Tories and Labour equally
I would have thought that much of the residual Tory vote is likely to be Remain -inclined - with Leavers having largely switched to Brexit Party.
Nah. There will still be many Leavers who won't support Farage or - more likely - do not support his position of a No Deal Brexit. Just as in the referendum itself it is very possible to think Farage is an idiot who should not be voted for but still support Leaving the EU.
Farage has no policy platform for a GE. Even when he led UKIP, it was pretty much a one trick pony on immigration. Still surprised Carswell joined. The Brexit Party May have a role as protest vote at a GE but that’s about it.
How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Why have you changed your mind?
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely
Glad to see you have seen the light Big G, though I think the WA will still get through, eventually, before May goes by the end of the year, probably with either the PD amended or Barnier and Varadkar agreeing some technical solution compromise on the backstop
Not seen 'the light' as that would indicate I am converted which I am not. However, pragmatism and instinct have been my byword throughout my life and it does look increasingly likely
Sensible, the key to the next general election is now whether Brexit Party voters go back to the Tories or not, especially with Labour only on 30-35% at best
Though Boris becoming leader would be just the filip that CHUK need. Their destiny is as a home for former Tory Remainers, a not insignificant demographic, 35% of the 2017 GE Tory vote.
The polling as below actually shows CUK hitting Labour as much as the Tories. The Brexit Party though is mainly taking Tories
How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Why have you changed your mind?
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely
Support for Farage would be much diminished in any General Election - as evidenced by how UKIP performed in the 2014 EU elections compared with the 2015 GE less than a year later. As has often been the case with the LibDems in the past, much of their vote is 'easy come- easy go'.
Provided we have left the EU by the next general election, if not the Brexit Party surge will continue.
In 2015 it was Cameron's promise to hold an EUref which kept the UKIP vote down, even so UKIP got 12%, almost half the 27% they got in the EU Parliament elections
I disagree there and do believe that only a minority of voters will see Brexit as the key issue at a General Election. Cameron's commitment to a Referendum had already been made by the time of the 2014 EU elections but still failed to prevent a strong UKIP showing. Very little doubt their support will fall back sharply at any GE - whatever happens re-Brexit - as already evidenced by a much lower vote share in polls in response to such a question.
Only if we leave the EU and the Tories have a Brexiteer leading them, if not the Brexit Party will still be polling highly from angry Leavers
How the polling has changed in just a few short dramatic weeks. My thoughts now are
Brexit party will win the EU election by quite a margin
TM will be forced to resign
Boris will win a succession election
No deal Brexit will become the most likely outcome on the 31st October
Boris and Farage will rout Corbyn
And I am not a champion of Boris or especially Farage but an earthquake has happened that is going to create the mother of all political upheavel
Not sure about Scots Independence in all this but probably a border between Carlisle and Berwick, just like the Irish border, will see it fail
And apologies to Hyufd who seems to have called this right
Why have you changed your mind?
The shear weight of evidence in all the polls together with my twitter feed showing Boris out campaigning for the locals with the activists across the Midlands.
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely
Support for Farage would be much diminished in any General Election - as evidenced by how UKIP performed in the 2014 EU elections compared with the 2015 GE less than a year later. As has often been the case with the LibDems in the past, much of their vote is 'easy come- easy go'.
Provided we have left the EU by the next general election, if not the Brexit Party surge will continue.
In 2015 it was Cameron's promise to hold an EUref which kept the UKIP vote down, even so UKIP got 12%, almost half the 27% they got in the EU Parliament elections
I disagree there and do believe that only a minority of voters will see Brexit as the key issue at a General Election. Cameron's commitment to a Referendum had already been made by the time of the 2014 EU elections but still failed to prevent a strong UKIP showing. Very little doubt their support will fall back sharply at any GE - whatever happens re-Brexit - as already evidenced by a much lower vote share in polls in response to such a question.
Cameron's referendum didn't change votes at the Euro election as UKIP support was widely seen as a way to keep the Tories honest. It definitely suppressed the UKIP vote in 2015. Just as May's support for a hard Brexit suppressed it further in 2017.
The reality is that EU integration just got so extensive that most of the right wing vote now opposes EU membership. If the Tory Party won't take account of that, they will be replaced by a party that does.
Labour and Brexit party neck and neck for the Euros, I think a few more Tories will shift to put Farage over the line. The Tories then need to win back those voters for the next general election
Not convinced that will happen. Farage might be an arrogant self publicist with no policy platform for a GE, but even with May gone, there is no good reason to vote Tory whilst the likes of Hammond, Clark, Gauke etc make the Tories indistinguishable from Blairite Labour.
Which is why the Tories need Boris or Raab to replace May
Labour and Brexit party neck and neck for the Euros, I think a few more Tories will shift to put Farage over the line. The Tories then need to win back those voters for the next general election
Not convinced that will happen. Farage might be an arrogant self publicist with no policy platform for a GE, but even with May gone, there is no good reason to vote Tory whilst the likes of Hammond, Clark, Gauke etc make the Tories indistinguishable from Blairite Labour.
Which is why the Tories need Boris or Raab to replace May
Unless they happen to decide to stay in government.
Labour and Brexit party neck and neck for the Euros, I think a few more Tories will shift to put Farage over the line. The Tories then need to win back those voters for the next general election
Not convinced that will happen. Farage might be an arrogant self publicist with no policy platform for a GE, but even with May gone, there is no good reason to vote Tory whilst the likes of Hammond, Clark, Gauke etc make the Tories indistinguishable from Blairite Labour.
Which is why the Tories need Boris or Raab to replace May
Raab makes so much more sense than Boris, given he is capable of working hard. McVey or Mordaunt also work.
Yes, the published media lie about the reality of events with Brexit too.
Most of the published media - like most on this board - have not bothered to read the text of the Withdrawal Agreement.
Journalists are a group of people that have usually no practiced expertise. They talk to people nd report their views without bothering to study how things work themselves, which is so much harder.
Labour and Brexit party neck and neck for the Euros, I think a few more Tories will shift to put Farage over the line. The Tories then need to win back those voters for the next general election
Not convinced that will happen. Farage might be an arrogant self publicist with no policy platform for a GE, but even with May gone, there is no good reason to vote Tory whilst the likes of Hammond, Clark, Gauke etc make the Tories indistinguishable from Blairite Labour.
Which is why the Tories need Boris or Raab to replace May
No argument, but can’t see too many Remainers staying in either scenario. Would prefer Raab to Boris myself. Gove would be a disaster but can’t be ruled out.
Here are the missing four paragraphs, leading on directly from Leslie Haden-Guest's story:
In 1938, the Tory MP for Kinross & Western Perthshire, Katherine Stewart-Murray (Duchess of Atholl), resigned the whip over Tory policy regarding pre-war appeasement. She lost to the official Tory candidate in the by-election, though there were no other candidates. To date, The Duchess was the only female MP to resign/re-contest.
By contrast, in 1973, Dick Taverne, Labour MP for Lincoln, resigned from the party over Europe, presaging our current fractious political climate, and won his by-election as an Independent (albeit under the “Democratic Labour” tag). He retained the seat at the GE in February 1974, but lost in October the same year. Taverne would eventually join the SDP in the 1980s, and he is currently a LibDem peer.
Two early defectors from Party to X to Party Y who actually won their by-elections were Joseph Kenworthy and William Jowitt, both resigning from the Liberals to join Labour. Kenworthy joined Labour, presumably because Lloyd George wasn't radical enough, won his Kingston-upon-Hull Central by-election in 1926 and retained his seat at the 1929 General Election, while Jowitt, one of two MPs for multi-seat Preston, defected to Labour after the 1929 election (to become Attorney-General for England & Wales, no less). He won the by-election, but both Preston seats were won by the Tories at the 1931 General Election (though Jowitt didn't stand).
So, assuming that there isn't an imminent General Election, can we say that if the 11 Change UK MPs did resign and contest by-elections, do they they stand a statistical chance of re-election? I would stick my neck out and say yes, kind of! The caveat being, of course, that every Westminster seat (and every MP!) is different.
The polls are encouragingly similar, and oddly not all that different to the last Euros - the Brexit Party has eaten most of UKIP, Labour is marginally up, ChUK has split the centrist vote. The only big change is the Tories losing a third of their voters to Brexit/UKIP. That reflects the fact that the Tories have a lot of people who really care about achieving Brexit, and Labour doesn't. Labour has a lot of people who care about defeating Brexit, but so far not enough to actually change party in significant numbers, mainly I think because they aren't single-issue voters as the Brexiteers have become.
Indeed, the Brexit Party hitting the Tories more than Labour, CUK hitting both the Tories and Labour equally
Here are the missing four paragraphs, leading on directly from Leslie Haden-Guest's story:
In 1938, the Tory MP for Kinross & Western Perthshire, Katherine Stewart-Murray (Duchess of Atholl), resigned the whip over Tory policy regarding pre-war appeasement. She lost to the official Tory candidate in the by-election, though there were no other candidates. To date, The Duchess was the only female MP to resign/re-contest.
By contrast, in 1973, Dick Taverne, Labour MP for Lincoln, resigned from the party over Europe, presaging our current fractious political climate, and won his by-election as an Independent (albeit under the “Democratic Labour” tag). He retained the seat at the GE in February 1974, but lost in October the same year. Taverne would eventually join the SDP in the 1980s, and he is currently a LibDem peer.
Two early defectors from Party to X to Party Y who actually won their by-elections were Joseph Kenworthy and William Jowitt, both resigning from the Liberals to join Labour. Kenworthy joined Labour, presumably because Lloyd George wasn't radical enough, won his Kingston-upon-Hull Central by-election in 1926 and retained his seat at the 1929 General Election, while Jowitt, one of two MPs for multi-seat Preston, defected to Labour after the 1929 election (to become Attorney-General for England & Wales, no less). He won the by-election, but both Preston seats were won by the Tories at the 1931 General Election (though Jowitt didn't stand).
So, assuming that there isn't an imminent General Election, can we say that if the 11 Change UK MPs did resign and contest by-elections, do they they stand a statistical chance of re-election? I would stick my neck out and say yes, kind of! The caveat being, of course, that every Westminster seat (and every MP!) is different.
Labour and Brexit party neck and neck for the Euros, I think a few more Tories will shift to put Farage over the line. The Tories then need to win back those voters for the next general election
Not convinced that will happen. Farage might be an arrogant self publicist with no policy platform for a GE, but even with May gone, there is no good reason to vote Tory whilst the likes of Hammond, Clark, Gauke etc make the Tories indistinguishable from Blairite Labour.
Really? Blairite Labour spent well beyond their means (as did George Osborne).
To his credit, Hammond has pursued broadly sensible macroeconomic policies, and done more than any government in the developed world to tackle multinationals diverting profits abroad.
From an economic governance perspective, he's the best Chancellor since Clarke, and you could make the case he's the best since Geoffrey Howe.
'The mathematics of “Cameroonism” are clear. A generic political party, that has as its key target and archetypal voter a rural, affluent person could expect a natural demographic lead over its opposite (Labour) of 6.6 per cent (see technical note at the end of the article on how this is calculated). ' Fraser has Cameron Tories on 41%, Brexit Party/UKIP on 15%, Labour on 34%, TIG/LDs on 11%.
Fraser then says 'If the Tories take Nick Timothy’s advice, both Ukip and the Brexit party would likely be subsumed by the Nationals. The downside is that the Nationals would lose a huge number of affluent richer suburban voters to TIG, the Lib Dems and Labour. When you model this out, street by street, the Nationals lead over Labour would be 4.6 per cent – actually less than Cameroonism delivers'
He has Nationals on 41%, Labour on 36%, Liberals on 22%.
Yet he also says 'But when the party sits halfway between the two, it is massively disadvantaged. This is because it both fails to fully hollow out the Ukip and Brexit Party vote, and also faces the prospect of losing millions of votes to a well-organised, moderate centre force.'
He gives Mayite Tories 34%, Labour 33%, Brexit Party/UKIP 10%, TIG/LDs 22%
He also says PR ironically could see Labour take the lead but the right overall still in front.
Under AV or PR he has a similar situation to Australia with Labour on 45%, Cameroon Liberals on 33% and the Nationals on 23%
Here are the missing four paragraphs, leading on directly from Leslie Haden-Guest's story:
In 1938, the Tory MP for Kinross & Western Perthshire, Katherine Stewart-Murray (Duchess of Atholl), resigned the whip over Tory policy regarding pre-war appeasement. She lost to the official Tory candidate in the by-election, though there were no other candidates. To date, The Duchess was the only female MP to resign/re-contest.
By contrast, in 1973, Dick Taverne, Labour MP for Lincoln, resigned from the party over Europe, presaging our current fractious political climate, and won his by-election as an Independent (albeit under the “Democratic Labour” tag). He retained the seat at the GE in February 1974, but lost in October the same year. Taverne would eventually join the SDP in the 1980s, and he is currently a LibDem peer.
Two early defectors from Party to X to Party Y who actually won their by-elections were Joseph Kenworthy and William Jowitt, both resigning from the Liberals to join Labour. Kenworthy joined Labour, presumably because Lloyd George wasn't radical enough, won his Kingston-upon-Hull Central by-election in 1926 and retained his seat at the 1929 General Election, while Jowitt, one of two MPs for multi-seat Preston, defected to Labour after the 1929 election (to become Attorney-General for England & Wales, no less). He won the by-election, but both Preston seats were won by the Tories at the 1931 General Election (though Jowitt didn't stand).
So, assuming that there isn't an imminent General Election, can we say that if the 11 Change UK MPs did resign and contest by-elections, do they they stand a statistical chance of re-election? I would stick my neck out and say yes, kind of! The caveat being, of course, that every Westminster seat (and every MP!) is different.
I think I may be unique on this board.
I have voted for Dick Taverne.
Can anyone else claim that?
You lived in Lincoln?
I was born in 1974, so I didn't get to vote for him in Lincoln.
Am I reading this correctly? Nick Timothy is now urging the Tories to rename themselves the National Party and go after the English rural redneck vote. I'm amazed he thinks such a demographic even exists, let alone be capable of winning you an election.
Here are the missing four paragraphs, leading on directly from Leslie Haden-Guest's story:
In 1938, the Tory MP for Kinross & Western Perthshire, Katherine Stewart-Murray (Duchess of Atholl), resigned the whip over Tory policy regarding pre-war appeasement. She lost to the official Tory candidate in the by-election, though there were no other candidates. To date, The Duchess was the only female MP to resign/re-contest.
By contrast, in 1973, Dick Taverne, Labour MP for Lincoln, resigned from the party over Europe, presaging our current fractious political climate, and won his by-election as an Independent (albeit under the “Democratic Labour” tag). He retained the seat at the GE in February 1974, but lost in October the same year. Taverne would eventually join the SDP in the 1980s, and he is currently a LibDem peer.
Two early defectors from Party to X to Party Y who actually won their by-elections were Joseph Kenworthy and William Jowitt, both resigning from the Liberals to join Labour. Kenworthy joined Labour, presumably because Lloyd George wasn't radical enough, won his Kingston-upon-Hull Central by-election in 1926 and retained his seat at the 1929 General Election, while Jowitt, one of two MPs for multi-seat Preston, defected to Labour after the 1929 election (to become Attorney-General for England & Wales, no less). He won the by-election, but both Preston seats were won by the Tories at the 1931 General Election (though Jowitt didn't stand).
So, assuming that there isn't an imminent General Election, can we say that if the 11 Change UK MPs did resign and contest by-elections, do they they stand a statistical chance of re-election? I would stick my neck out and say yes, kind of! The caveat being, of course, that every Westminster seat (and every MP!) is different.
William Jowitt stood for a different seat in 1931 as a National Labour candidate, so ran for three different parties in the space of two years. Later rejoined Labour and became Lord Chancellor.
Here are the missing four paragraphs, leading on directly from Leslie Haden-Guest's story:
In 1938, the Tory MP for Kinross & Western Perthshire, Katherine Stewart-Murray (Duchess of Atholl), resigned the whip over Tory policy regarding pre-war appeasement. She lost to the official Tory candidate in the by-election, though there were no other candidates. To date, The Duchess was the only female MP to resign/re-contest.
By contrast, in 1973, Dick Taverne, Labour MP for Lincoln, resigned from the party over Europe, presaging our current fractious political climate, and won his by-election as an Independent (albeit under the “Democratic Labour” tag). He retained the seat at the GE in February 1974, but lost in October the same year. Taverne would eventually join the SDP in the 1980s, and he is currently a LibDem peer.
Two early defectors from Party to X to Party Y who actually won their by-elections were Joseph Kenworthy and William Jowitt, both resigning from the Liberals to join Labour. Kenworthy joined Labour, presumably because Lloyd George wasn't radical enough, won his Kingston-upon-Hull Central by-election in 1926 and retained his seat at the 1929 General Election, while Jowitt, one of two MPs for multi-seat Preston, defected to Labour after the 1929 election (to become Attorney-General for England & Wales, no less). He won the by-election, but both Preston seats were won by the Tories at the 1931 General Election (though Jowitt didn't stand).
So, assuming that there isn't an imminent General Election, can we say that if the 11 Change UK MPs did resign and contest by-elections, do they they stand a statistical chance of re-election? I would stick my neck out and say yes, kind of! The caveat being, of course, that every Westminster seat (and every MP!) is different.
I think I may be unique on this board.
I have voted for Dick Taverne.
Can anyone else claim that?
No, but the first time I voted (1983 Darlington By-election) it was for Ossie O'Brien, who I think has the record for the shortest ever term as an MP. I voted for him again at the General Election, but on that occasion he lost to the Tory candidate, one Michael Fallon.
Labour and Brexit party neck and neck for the Euros, I think a few more Tories will shift to put Farage over the line. The Tories then need to win back those voters for the next general election
Not convinced that will happen. Farage might be an arrogant self publicist with no policy platform for a GE, but even with May gone, there is no good reason to vote Tory whilst the likes of Hammond, Clark, Gauke etc make the Tories indistinguishable from Blairite Labour.
Which is why the Tories need Boris or Raab to replace May
Unless they happen to decide to stay in government.
They won't without Boris or Raab that is for certain, the Brexit Party will ensure that
Labour and Brexit party neck and neck for the Euros, I think a few more Tories will shift to put Farage over the line. The Tories then need to win back those voters for the next general election
Not convinced that will happen. Farage might be an arrogant self publicist with no policy platform for a GE, but even with May gone, there is no good reason to vote Tory whilst the likes of Hammond, Clark, Gauke etc make the Tories indistinguishable from Blairite Labour.
Which is why the Tories need Boris or Raab to replace May
Raab makes so much more sense than Boris, given he is capable of working hard. McVey or Mordaunt also work.
Here are the missing four paragraphs, leading on directly from Leslie Haden-Guest's story:
In 1938, the Tory MP for Kinross & Western Perthshire, Katherine Stewart-Murray (Duchess of Atholl), resigned the whip over Tory policy regarding pre-war appeasement. She lost to the official Tory candidate in the by-election, though there were no other candidates. To date, The Duchess was the only female MP to resign/re-contest.
By contrast, in 1973, Dick Taverne, Labour MP for Lincoln, resigned from the party over Europe, presaging our current fractious political climate, and won his by-election as an Independent (albeit under the “Democratic Labour” tag). He retained the seat at the GE in February 1974, but lost in October the same year. Taverne would eventually join the SDP in the 1980s, and he is currently a LibDem peer.
Two early defectors from Party to X to Party Y who actually won their by-elections were Joseph Kenworthy and William Jowitt, both resigning from the Liberals to join Labour. Kenworthy joined Labour, presumably because Lloyd George wasn't radical enough, won his Kingston-upon-Hull Central by-election in 1926 and retained his seat at the 1929 General Election, while Jowitt, one of two MPs for multi-seat Preston, defected to Labour after the 1929 election (to become Attorney-General for England & Wales, no less). He won the by-election, but both Preston seats were won by the Tories at the 1931 General Election (though Jowitt didn't stand).
So, assuming that there isn't an imminent General Election, can we say that if the 11 Change UK MPs did resign and contest by-elections, do they they stand a statistical chance of re-election? I would stick my neck out and say yes, kind of! The caveat being, of course, that every Westminster seat (and every MP!) is different.
I think I may be unique on this board.
I have voted for Dick Taverne.
Can anyone else claim that?
No, but the first time I voted (1983 Darlington By-election) it was for Ossie O'Brien, who I think has the record for the shortest ever term as an MP. I voted for him again at the General Election, but on that occasion he lost to the Tory candidate, one Michael Fallon.
I was one of the youngest in my school year, and was the only person of my class not to be able to vote in the 1992 General Election.
Labour and Brexit party neck and neck for the Euros, I think a few more Tories will shift to put Farage over the line. The Tories then need to win back those voters for the next general election
Not convinced that will happen. Farage might be an arrogant self publicist with no policy platform for a GE, but even with May gone, there is no good reason to vote Tory whilst the likes of Hammond, Clark, Gauke etc make the Tories indistinguishable from Blairite Labour.
Really? Blairite Labour spent well beyond their means (as did George Osborne).
To his credit, Hammond has pursued broadly sensible macroeconomic policies, and done more than any government in the developed world to tackle multinationals diverting profits abroad.
From an economic governance perspective, he's the best Chancellor since Clarke, and you could make the case he's the best since Geoffrey Howe.
Hammond has simply pursued Osborne’s policies - allowing Gov spending to escalate and funding it by frozen allowances and big hikes in indirect taxes. Neither did anything to attract inward investment, boost productivity or champion consumer rights and both have penalised savers to favour borrowers. Both were indistinguishable from Blairite Labour. Hammond has been negligent in combatting McDonnell’s Mickey Mouse economics and has given McDonnell free rein in peddling his economic illiteracy. He’s useless.
Am I reading this correctly? Nick Timothy is now urging the Tories to rename themselves the National Party and go after the English rural redneck vote. I'm amazed he thinks such a demographic even exists, let alone be capable of winning you an election.
The rural redneck vote went Tory in 2005 and 2010, UKIP in 2015, Tory in 2017 and is now voting Brexit Party, it does exist
Am I reading this correctly? Nick Timothy is now urging the Tories to rename themselves the National Party and go after the English rural redneck vote. I'm amazed he thinks such a demographic even exists, let alone be capable of winning you an election.
That would be the same Nick Timothy who was one of May’s most toxic advisers and wrote the toxic 2017 Tory Manifesto. Best ignored.
More than half the public (55%) now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
Comments
- In some cases younger voters say they're more likely to vote than at a similar point 5 years ago.
As we get closer to polling day will be interesting to note any shifts.Lab + LD + Green + ChangeUK = 43%
Which seems a bit strange given Remain is now well ahead of Leave!
I guess the answer is things are more complex than they might seem - in particular quite a lot of the Con vote is presumably Remain.
Farage has achieved a sea change but the only party able to deliver Brexit is the conservative party and Boris is on top of his game at present.
It is not my preferred way but it does seem most likely
Looked at that way it seems very plausible.
In the present time it is Farage and Banks that are friendly with the Russians.
A metaphor for Brexit...
Interesting article again Sunil. I think MPs will only resign and cause by elections if they have another job to go to or they think they will win
In 2015 it was Cameron's promise to hold an EUref which kept the UKIP vote down, even so UKIP got 12%, almost half the 27% they got in the EU Parliament elections
https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1122186976541724674
Scum.
In 1938, the Tory MP for Kinross & Western Perthshire, Katherine Stewart-Murray (Duchess of Atholl), resigned the whip over Tory policy regarding pre-war appeasement. She lost to the official Tory candidate in the by-election, though there were no other candidates. To date, The Duchess was the only female MP to resign/re-contest.
By contrast, in 1973, Dick Taverne, Labour MP for Lincoln, resigned from the party over Europe, presaging our current fractious political climate, and won his by-election as an Independent (albeit under the “Democratic Labour” tag). He retained the seat at the GE in February 1974, but lost in October the same year. Taverne would eventually join the SDP in the 1980s, and he is currently a LibDem peer.
Two early defectors from Party to X to Party Y who actually won their by-elections were Joseph Kenworthy and William Jowitt, both resigning from the Liberals to join Labour. Kenworthy joined Labour, presumably because Lloyd George wasn't radical enough, won his Kingston-upon-Hull Central by-election in 1926 and retained his seat at the 1929 General Election, while Jowitt, one of two MPs for multi-seat Preston, defected to Labour after the 1929 election (to become Attorney-General for England & Wales, no less). He won the by-election, but both Preston seats were won by the Tories at the 1931 General Election (though Jowitt didn't stand).
So, assuming that there isn't an imminent General Election, can we say that if the 11 Change UK MPs did resign and contest by-elections, do they they stand a statistical chance of re-election? I would stick my neck out and say yes, kind of! The caveat being, of course, that every Westminster seat (and every MP!) is different.
Broadly 2015 GE had twice the turnout of 2014 Euros. The Kipper share fell by 50% but the number of votes was similar.
EDIT - OGH has fixed it just now!!
So you can't use the results of those elections to judge how likely it is in general for an MP to be re-elected (unless you're explicitly assuming that they will only call such a by-election because they have independently established that they have a good chance of being re-elected, but in that case the statistics are meaningless as the assumption is doing all the work).
Not convinced that will happen. Farage might be an arrogant self publicist with no policy platform for a GE, but even with May gone, there is no good reason to vote Tory whilst the likes of Hammond, Clark, Gauke etc make the Tories indistinguishable from Blairite Labour.
The polls are encouragingly similar, and oddly not all that different to the last Euros - the Brexit Party has eaten most of UKIP, Labour is marginally up, ChUK has split the centrist vote. The only big change is the Tories losing a third of their voters to Brexit/UKIP. That reflects the fact that the Tories have a lot of people who really care about achieving Brexit, and Labour doesn't. Labour has a lot of people who care about defeating Brexit, but so far not enough to actually change party in significant numbers, mainly I think because they aren't single-issue voters as the Brexiteers have become.
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1122158569346994176?s=20
He was in hopsital in Thailand several weeks. He spoke very highly of Thai nurses......
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1122207770365788160
I, for one, am shocked...
The reality is that EU integration just got so extensive that most of the right wing vote now opposes EU membership. If the Tory Party won't take account of that, they will be replaced by a party that does.
I have voted for Dick Taverne.
Can anyone else claim that?
If any more Leavers move to the BP they could end up in single digits for the EU elections!
To his credit, Hammond has pursued broadly sensible macroeconomic policies, and done more than any government in the developed world to tackle multinationals diverting profits abroad.
From an economic governance perspective, he's the best Chancellor since Clarke, and you could make the case he's the best since Geoffrey Howe.
Fraser then says 'If the Tories take Nick Timothy’s advice, both Ukip and the Brexit party would likely be subsumed by the Nationals.
The downside is that the Nationals would lose a huge number of affluent richer suburban voters to TIG, the Lib Dems and Labour. When you model this out, street by street, the Nationals lead over Labour would be 4.6 per cent – actually less than Cameroonism delivers'
He has Nationals on 41%, Labour on 36%, Liberals on 22%.
Yet he also says 'But when the party sits halfway between the two, it is massively disadvantaged. This is because it both fails to fully hollow out the Ukip and Brexit Party vote, and also faces the prospect of losing millions of votes to a well-organised, moderate centre force.'
He gives Mayite Tories 34%, Labour 33%, Brexit Party/UKIP 10%, TIG/LDs 22%
He also says PR ironically could see Labour take the lead but the right overall still in front.
Under AV or PR he has a similar situation to Australia with Labour on 45%, Cameroon Liberals on 33% and the Nationals on 23%
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/04/the-tories-are-stuck-in-the-middle-with-may-heres-what-they-should-do-next/
Really? I look forward to you sharing my comment where I said that.
Strikingly, more Conservative voters (49%) now think the referendum was a bad idea than believe it was the right thing to have done (43%).
Among Labour supporters, 72% believe it would have been better never to have staged the vote, while 18% say it was worthwhile.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/27/public-thinks-eu-referendum-was-a-bad-idea-says-poll?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other