politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris could once again suffer the curse of being the long term

SandyRentool said:

One thing that puzzles me is how a man who 3 years ago pulled out of the leadership contest declaring that he wasn't the right person for the job now thinks he should be a shoo-in

Roger said:

HYUFD said:

Roger said:

HYUFD said:

Roger said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

It does look like it will be Boris, they’re that desperate and crazy.

Given the mass defections of Tory Leave voters to the Brexit Party if the Tories are to beat Corbyn they cannot have any of the current Cabinet leading them in all likelihood, they will all be contaminated by refusing to resign not only after May's Deal but also by staying in the Cabinet after her extensions of Article 50 beyond the planned Brexit Day, only a charismatic hard Brexiteer will do, that means Boris, maybe Raab

Raab is an egotistical narcissist that resigned over the deal he negotiated and doesn’t know that Dover matters to the UK economy.

Boris is also an egotistical narcissist, who thinks he’s the reincarnation of Churchill and cultivates a bumbling persona to deflect attention from a two decade long campaign to see himself in number 10. That is all he cares about. The man who wrote two articles, one leave one remain, picking the one to get home closer to number ten.

Neither are great potential PMs.

If only they knew it they have the perfect candidate in Justine Greening. A Remainer but unlike all other Tory possibles she looks and sounds human

Greening will likely shortly defect to join CUK anyway judging by the rumours so she May not even be in the Tories much longer, Greening also has more chance of being the next CUK leader then the next Tory leader

That's good news. She'd have been wasted staying with the dysfunctional Tories. If Corbyn goes under the proverbial bus it's easy to see a scenario where the Tories are landed with Boris and Labour with McDonnell. The drip to the Tiggers will become a flood and Brexit wont be the only casualty.

In theory, as the polling shows little sign of a CUK surge at present

Wouldn't you anticipate a serious number of defections if Boris becomes leader?

kle4 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

edmundintokyo said:

AlastairMeeks said:

On what prospectus is any leader going to unite the Parliamentary party?

Renegotiate? Seems to work until you actually have to try and do it. So promise to renegotiate, then call a GE to get a mandate for your renegotiation. If you win you get another 5 years, and hopefully a majority and some political capital that you can spend passing TMay's deal.

The killer for the Conservatives is that the candidates are all going to have to set out their views on no deal. They can please the membership or they can command the confidence of the House of Commons. They can’t do both.

This. It's why the focus on May, while warranted due to being crap, feels like a distraction. Tory Members want no deal Brexit, but even if the bulk of their mps agree with that they cannot do anything. Parliament will take control again or god forbid more defect. The only path to no deal is continued paralysis and this time if parliament forces an extension request the EU say no.

Is that really the plan? Or more unicorn selling?

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

You miss the other half of what I said. Becoming Prime Minister is not just about becoming Conservative party leader.

It is dependent on the DUP too at the moment and they are clear they prefer ave also said they prefer to May's Deal and the backstop

It is dependent on more than the DUP. Two questions for you:

1) what is the Government’s current majority?

2) how many Conservative MPs do you think would defect if Boris Johnson became leader?

1) Excluding Sinnce to pay

Your counting is atrocious on both fronts. The Conservatives currently have 313 MPs (excluding the Speaker). The DUP have 10. That’s 323.

Against them there are 246 Labour MPs, 35 SNP MPs, 11 Lib Dems, 10 CUK, 4 Plaid Cymru, 1 Green and 12 other independents. That’s 319. Leaving the Speaker out of ilitate it.

The Tories won 318 MPs since the general election since when 3 defected to TIG, Allen, Wollaston and Soubry making 315. Boles now sits as an Independent Conservative and would still support May maybe even Boris over Corbyn, as does Grieve who would also support May over Corbyn.

Add together the DUP and the Tories you still get a clear majority, minus the DUP then you do not. However Corbyn would not get a majority for a general election let alone to become PM without DUP support.

Whether even 30 Tory MPs moved to CUK is irrelevant as they would still have to VONC the government for it it fall or put Corbyn in as PM

Well they would if it led to no deal Brexit. Of course they would.

Given we are in the EU still until October anyway and Cooper Letwin requires the PM by law to seek an extension of Article 50 over No Deal anyway we likely only get No Deal with a general election and a victory for a hard Brexit Tory leader or Farage and the Brexit Party anyway

A no deal Prime Minister can force no deal. Those opposed to that know that and will act accordingly.

houndtang said:

What amazes me is the lack of genuine panic in conservatism over the very real prospect of a Corbyn government. Never mind Brexit, Britain won't exist after Corbyn gets his hands on it. The likes of IDS and Boris will not even hold their seats at the next election if the Tory shambles continues. Unless they get their shit together very quickly the Tories are handing the keys to Downing Street to cultural Marxists who will eradicate every remnant of the England that right wingers hold dear.

Cyclefree said:

Charles said:

Cyclefree said:

The idea that a No Deal departure, with all the disruption that will cause, not just in the short-term but to other countries’ willingness to enter into agreements with Britain on anything, should be the preferred option of a significant percentage of a party of government simply shows that the Tories are not fit to be in government.

The Tories - and the country - need a leader who is prepared to speak some hard truths to them about what is needed for countries to earn their way in the world. Purity tests and a refusal to compromise with anyone outside these shores are the opposite of what is needed. Sadly for them (and us) there is no-one, other than Ken Clarke, with the courage to do this.

Why do you think it would have any impact on other countries’ willingness to do a deal with the U.K.?

We’ve abided by Article 50.

The government couldn’t carry the legislature - that happens. Yes there was a bit of silliness with May voting against her own deal, but foreign politicians understand that political silliness happens sometimes.

Life goes on. There will be deals on all sorts of things from flights to medicine.

Why would any country invest the time and effort into negotiating an FTA with Britain when it can have no confidence that such an agreement would get past Parliament? It’s not simply a bit of silliness. It goes to the heart of whether Britain is seen as a sensible, pragmatic, reliable, honourable country to do business with.

How could it trust Britain to honour its legal obligations when the no-dealers don’t want us to pay a penny of the money we legally owe the EU?

What sort of a country talks like this, for God’s sake. It may be the Little Britain of Nigel Farage’s dreams. It is not the Britain I want to see or thought I lived in.

initforthemoney said:

kle4 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

edmundintokyo said:

AlastairMeeks said:

On what prospectus is any leader going to unite the Parliamentary party?

Renegotiate? Seems to work until you actually have to try and do it. So promise to renegotiate, then call a GE to get a mandate for your renegotiation. If you win you get another 5 years, and hopefully a majority and some political capital that you can spend passing TMay's deal.

The killer for the Conservatives is that the candidates are all going to have to set out their views on no deal. They can please the membership or they can command the confidence of the House of Commons. They can’t do both.

This. It's why the focus on May, while warranted due to being crap, feels like a distraction. Tory Members want no deal Brexit, but even if the bulk of their mps agree with that they cannot do anything. Parliament will take control again or god forbid more defect. The only path to no deal is continued paralysis and this time if parliament forces an extension request the EU say no.

Is that really the plan? Or more unicorn selling?

Surely it's straightforward for the government to force a no deal even if parliament demands the PM requests an extension. The PM could just tell the EU Council we're going to be as awkward as possible because I don't want this extension I'm being mandated to request and there is no hope of any resolution from our side because parliament and the government are at loggerheads.

houndtang said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Dura_Ace said:

rottenborough said:

DavidL said:

Personally right now I’m for Hunt or Javid. Reasonably bright, reasonably competent, pragmatic. Gove as Chancellor, not as leader. Boris should be aiming to get back on HIGNFY. That is what he did best.

We urgently need a period of calm, well managed government. Personally Hunt looks more likely to deliver this. Boris certainly won't.

The tories won't be do any governing whether calm, well managed or otherwise if they don't win the imminent GE. Corby will absolutely fucking mangle Rat Eyes in an election campaign.

Indeed, Hunt will lead us calmly and in a well managed way to a Corbyn premiership

So? If it us 2022 that would be 12 years of Tory led government that's a good run.

Except after 5 years of a Corbyn government we may have turned into Venezuela

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Dura_Ace said:

rottenborough said:

DavidL said:

Personally right now I’m for Hunt or Javid. Reasonably bright, reasonably competent, pragmatic. Gove as Chancellor, not as leader. Boris should be aiming to get back on HIGNFY. That is what he did best.

We urgently need a period of calm,ly won't.

The tories won't be do any governing whetherction campaign.

Indeed, Hunt will lead us calmly and in a well managed way to a Corbyn premiership

So? If it us 2022 that would be 12 years of Tory led government that's a good run.

Except after 5 years of a Corbyn government we may have turned into Venezuela

What amazes me is the lack of genuine panic in conservatism over the very real prospect of a Corbyn government. Never mind Brexit, Britain won't exist after Corbyn gets his hands on it. The likes of IDS and Boris will not even hold their seats at the next election if the Tory shambles continues. Unless they get their shit together very quickly the Tories are handing the keys to Downing Street to cultural Marxists who will eradicate every remnant of the England that right wingers hold dear.

Scott_P said:

houndtang said:

What amazes me is the lack of genuine panic in conservatism over the very real prospect of a Corbyn government. Never mind Brexit, Britain won't exist after Corbyn gets his hands on it. The likes of IDS and Boris will not even hold their seats at the next election if the Tory shambles continues. Unless they get their shit together very quickly the Tories are handing the keys to Downing Street to cultural Marxists who will eradicate every remnant of the England that right wingers hold dear.

There is an article in the Times this morning saying exactly that.

The only way to stop Nigel Fucking Farage (it says) is for Tory voters to believe "Vote Farage, get Corbyn"

I am not sure that will be effective myself.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Recidivist, socialism was not a success when the USSR tried it, and it is not a success in Venezuela now.

MarqueeMark said:

Roger said:

HYUFD said:

Roger said:

HYUFD said:

Roger said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

It does look like it will be Boris, they’re that desperate and crazy.

Given the mass defections of Tory Leave voters to the Brexit Party if the Tories are to beat Corbyn they cannot have any of the current Cabinet leading them in all likelihood, they will all be contaminated by refusing to resign not only after May's Deal but also by staying in the Cabinet after her extensions of Article 50 beyond the planned Brexit Day, only a charismatic hard Brexiteer will do, that means Boris, maybe Raab

Raab is an egotistical narcissist that resigned over the deal he negotiated and doesn’t know that Dover matters to the UK economy.

Boris is also an egotistical narcissist, who thinks he’s the reincarnation of Churchill and cultivates a bumbling persona to deflect attention from a two decade long campaign to see himself in number 10. That is all he cares about. The man who wrote two articles, one leave one remain, picking the one to get home closer to number ten.

Neither are great potential PMs.

If only they knew it they have the perfect candidate in Justine Greening. A Remainer but unlike all other Tory possibles she looks and sounds human

Greening will likely shortly defect to join CUK anyway judging by the rumours so she May not even be in the Tories much longer, Greening also has more chance of being the next CUK leader then the next Tory leader

That's good news. She'd have been wasted staying with the dysfunctional Tories. If Corbyn goes under the proverbial bus it's easy to see a scenario where the Tories are landed with Boris and Labour with McDonnell. The drip to the Tiggers will become a flood and Brexit wont be the only casualty.

In theory, as the polling shows little sign of a CUK surge at present

Wouldn't you anticipate a serious number of defections if Boris becomes leader?

I am reminded of Brendan Behan, on being told that every hangover destroyed a million brain cells:

"But only the weak ones....."

HYUFD said:

Recidivist said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Recidivist, hike taxes, crush commerce beneath a hundredweight of red tape, side with the Russian state over the UK state (as he did over the use of chemical weapons on British soil), axe Trident, starve the armed forces of resources (even more so than the incumbent government).

Corbyn would be a catastrophically bad PM.

And the other side would say that the Tories will slash public spending, allow bosses to exploit workers, side with the US in its imperialist ventures and, well on defence it looks like both sides plan to leave us defenceless.

I'll ignore both shades of hyperbole.

Corbyn's flavour of Labour isn't the one I favour, but it still seems preferable to what the Tories are actually doing at the moment.

A Corbyn v Boris battle would at least force voters to make a choice, socialism or hard Brexit

SouthamObserver said:

Cyclefree said:

Charles said:

Cyclefree said:

The idea that a No Deal departure, with all the disruption that will cause, not just in the short-term but to other countries’ willingness to enter into agreements with Britain on anything, should be the preferred option of a significant percentage of a party of government simply shows that the Tories are not fit to be in government.

The Tories - and the country - need a leader who is prepared to speak some hard truths to them about what is needed for countries to earn their way in the world. Purity tests and a refusal to compromise with anyone outside these shores are the opposite of what is needed. Sadly for them (and us) there is no-one, other than Ken Clarke, with the courage to do this.

Why do you think it would have any impact on other countries’ willingness to do a deal with the U.K.?

We’ve abided by Article 50.

The government couldn’t carry the legislature - that happens. Yes there was a bit of silliness with May voting against her own deal, but foreign politicians understand that political silliness happens sometimes.

Life goes on. There will be deals on all sorts of things from flights to medicine.

Why would any country invest the time and effort into negotiating an FTA with Britain when it can have no confidence that such an agreement would get past Parliament? It’s not simply a bit of silliness. It goes to the heart of whether Britain is seen as a sensible, pragmatic, reliable, honourable country to do business with.

How could it trust Britain to honour its legal obligations when the no-dealers don’t want us to pay a penny of the money we legally owe the EU?

What sort of a country talks like this, for God’s sake. It may be the Little Britain of Nigel Farage’s dreams. It is not the Britain I want to see or thought I lived in.

The practical reality is that no country of any trading significance will contemplate a full-blown FTA with the UK until our relationship with the EU is finalised. On that hinges our attractiveness as a trading partner.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Recidivist, socialism was not a success when the USSR tried it, and it is not a success in Venezuela now.

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

houndtang said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Dura_Ace said:

rottenborough said:

DavidL said:

Personally right now I’m for Hunt or Javid. Reasonably bright, reasonably competent, pragmatic. Gove as Chancellor, not as leader. Boris should be aiming to get back on HIGNFY. That is what he did best.

We urgently need a period of calm, well managed government. Personally Hunt looks more likely to deliver this. Boris certainly won't.

The tories won't be do any governing whether calm, well managed or otherwise if they don't win the imminent GE. Corby will absolutely fucking mangle Rat Eyes in an election campaign.

Indeed, Hunt will lead us calmly and in a well managed way to a Corbyn premiership

So? If it us 2022 that would be 12 years of Tory led government that's a good run.

Except after 5 years of a Corbyn government we may have turned into Venezuela

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Dura_Ace said:

rottenborough said:

DavidL said:

Personally right now I’m for Hunt or Javid. Reasonably bright, reasonably competent, pragmatic. Gove as Chancellor, not as leader. Boris should be aiming to get back on HIGNFY. That is what he did best.

We urgently need a period of calm,ly won't.

The tories won't be do any governing whetherction campaign.

Indeed, Hunt will lead us calmly and in a well managed way to a Corbyn premiership

So? If it us 2022 that would be 12 years of Tory led government that's a good run.

Except after 5 years of a Corbyn government we may have turned into Venezuela

What amazes me is the lack of genuine panic in conservatism over the very real prospect of a Corbyn government. Never mind Brexit, Britain won't exist after Corbyn gets that right wingers hold dear.

You make that sound like a bad thing. Eradicating the last vestiges of Empire and the notion of British superiority and everyone else being 'Jonny Foreigner', creating a fairer and more equal society, with public services that are there for the public good, protecting the natural environment and not jumping into every war going would be a darn sight better than the current shambles of a non-government we are being subjected to.

It would also lead to many of the most talented and highest income earners moving to Singapore and Geneva etc

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

Cyclefree said:

Gadfly said:

Somebody once said that the Tories will only turn to Boris when they are 2 - 0 down, with 10 minutes left to play. I suspect that many Tory MPs could now be considering whether Boris is the only person who can save the day.

No. Just no. Lazy, untruthful, a disaster in the only Cabinet job he has held. He has an appalling reputation round the world at a time when Britain needs friends and to forge new relationships. His “fuck business” comment tells business all they need to know about a country which has this clown as its PM or as leader as one of the main parties.

If the Tories insist on seeing everything through some Brexit purity test they deserve to die and the sooner the better.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

It's tempting to view politics through the prism of the Tories' endless student union leadership psychodrama, but occasionally it's worth remembering that out there in the real world the country is falling apart and desperately needs a government that actually gives a shit about our future.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/22/tories-schools-austerity-cuts-politicians

Well said.

When did you last vote Tory Cyclefree?

If you have never voted Tory I suggest your views on what is best for the Tories and how to avoid leakage to the Brexit Party carry little weight. Trump won, Bolsonaro won, Netanyahu won, Berluconi won and Salvini now leads in Italy, Modi leads in India, the liberal left may not like it but the populist right is winning elections across the world

Yep, the Tories see their future as being a hard right English nationalist party. The pragmatic, pro-business, unionist party the Conservative party used to claim to be has died. What a prospect you offer HYUFD - a party that walks shoulder to shoulder with white supremacists, climate change deniers, protectionists, homophobes, Islamophobes and assorted other bigots. Roll on Jeremy Corbyn in that case.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Recidivist, we have a minimum wage...

nico67 said:

The Tories are deluded if they think replacing May suddenly solves their problems . For all Mays faults she has tried to deliver Brexit .

Any future PM going all out for no deal will see enough resignations from the party to have no majority even with the DUP .

The party membership and grassroots has now in effect become overtaken by the pure no deal Brexiters . The fact the alleged party of business could reach this point shows why the Tories deserve to be removed from office .

They have brought nothing but chaos and division and are a danger to the UKs national interest .

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

houndtang said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Dura_Ace said:

rottenborough said:

DavidL said:

Indeed, Hunt will lead us calmly and in a well managed way to a Corbyn premiership

So? If it us 2022 that would be 12 years of Tory led government that's a good run.

Except after 5 years of a Corbyn government we may have turned into Venezuela

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Dura_Ace said:

rottenborough said:

DavidL said:

Personally right now I’m for Hunt or Javid. Reasonably bright, reasonably competent, pragmatic. Gove as Chancellor, not as leader. Boris should be aiming to get back on HIGNFY. That is what he did best.

We urgently need a period of calm,ly won't.

The tories won't be do any governing whetherction campaign.

Indeed, Hunt will lead us calmly and in a well managed way to a Corbyn premiership

So? If it us 2022 that would be 12 years of Tory led government that's a good run.

Except after 5 years of a Corbyn government we may have turned into Venezuela

What amazes me is the lack of genuine panic in conservatism over the very real prospect of a Corbyn government. Never mind Brexit, Britain won't exist after Corbyn gets that right wingers hold dear.

You make that sound like a bad thing. Eradicating the last vestiges of Empire and the notion of British superiority and everyone else being 'Jonny Foreigner', creating a fairer and more equal society, with public services that are there for the public good, protecting the natural environment and not jumping into every war going would be a darn sight better than the current shambles of a non-government we are being subjected to.

It would also lead to many of the most talented and highest income earners moving to Singapore and Geneva etc

No it won't. Who the hell would move from the Cotswolds to bloody Singapore?

SandyRentool said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Recidivist, socialism was not a success when the USSR tried it, and it is not a success in Venezuela now.

Get a bloody grip. What the feck has totalitarian communism in the USSR got to do with democratic socialism?

JosiasJessop said:

Charles said:

@JosiasJessop FPT

If you’d read the thread I didn’t name my source originally

I had a rather rude response from ManchesterKurt. So I sourced the comment. Not gratuitous.

Andy was a client at the time (or at least Boots was) and I haven’t seen him since he quit to run GalaCoral in 2011.

...You should take a leaf from RCS's book; he does it [namedropping] sparingly and with style. . ...

JosiasJessop said:

SandyRentool said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Recidivist, socialism was not a success when the USSR tried it, and it is not a success in Venezuela now.

Get a bloody grip. What the feck has totalitarian communism in the USSR got to do with democratic socialism?

Because the fear - whether justified or not - is that the 'democratic socialism' will only last until it starts to fail (as it will), and then it will go the route other countries have taken when they've tried - less democracy and socialism in name only.

I will agree that a Corbyn/McDonnell majority government will not end up like Venezuela, as that situation is unique to the country. The disaster they lead us to will be very much a British disaster.

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

Cyclefree said:

Gadfly said:

Somebody once said that the Tories will only turn to Boris when they are 2 - 0 down, with 10 minutes left to play. I suspect that many Tory MPs could now be considering whether Boris is the only person who can save the day.

No. Just no. Lazy, untruthful, a disaster in the only Cabinet job he has held. He has an appalling reputation round the world at a time when Britain needs friends and to forge new relationships. His “fuck business” comment tells business all they need to know about a country which has this clown as its PM or as leader as one of the main parties.

If the Tories insist on seeing everything through some Brexit purity test they deserve to die and the sooner the better.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

It's tempting to view politics through the prism of the Tories' endless student union leadership psychodrama, but occasionally it's worth remembering that out there in the real world the country is falling apart and desperately needs a government that actually gives a shit about our future.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/22/tories-schools-austerity-cuts-politicians

Well said.

When did you last vote Tory Cyclefree?

If you have never voted Tory I suggest your views on what is best for the Tories and how to avoid leakage to the Brexit Party carry little weight. Trump won, Bolsonaro won, Netanyahu won, Berluconi won and Salvini now leads in Italy, Modi leads in India, the liberal left may not like it but the populist right is winning elections across the world

Yep, the Tories see their future as being a hard right English nationalist party. The pragmatic, pro-business, unionist party the Conservative party used to claim to be has died. What a prospect you offer HYUFD - a party that walks shoulder to shoulder with white supremacists, climate change deniers, protectionists, homophobes, Islamophobes and assorted other bigots. Roll on Jeremy Corbyn in that case.

ydoethur said:

TGOHF said:

Gove.

He would make an effective chief of staff. Definitely a great CoTE .

Has he got the sales pitch for middle ground non Con voters ? Not sure.

Oddly, I would agree with that. He's a brilliant administrator, clearly has a wide range of knowledge and interests, and his energy is impressive. Which means when he is right, he is formidable.

However, he has the judgement of a dead stoat, and is too insecure to change his mind unless he is compelled to. So when he gets things wrong, and nobody corrects him, the result is usually an unmitigated catastrophe.

That alone should rule him out of the top job.

Roger said:

Recidivist said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Recidivist, hike taxes, crush commerce beneath a hundredweight of red tape, side with the Russian state over the UK state (as he did over the use of chemical weapons on British soil), axe Trident, starve the armed forces of resources (even more so than the incumbent government).

Corbyn would be a catastrophically bad PM.

And the other side would say that the Tories will slash public spending, allow bosses to exploit workers, side with the US in its imperialist ventures and, well on defence it looks like both sides plan to leave us defenceless.

I'll ignore both shades of hyperbole.

Corbyn's flavour of Labour isn't the one I favour, but it still seems preferable to what the Tories are actually doing at the moment.

The Tories big fear must be Thornberry. It would be a landslide.

Roger said:

Recidivist said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Recidivist, hike taxes, crush commerce beneath a hundredweight of red tape, side with the Russian state over the UK state (as he did over the use of chemical weapons on British soil), axe Trident, starve the armed forces of resources (even more so than the incumbent government).

Corbyn would be a catastrophically bad PM.

And the other side would say that the Tories will slash public spending, allow bosses to exploit workers, side with the US in its imperialist ventures and, well on defence it looks like both sides plan to leave us defenceless.

I'll ignore both shades of hyperbole.

Corbyn's flavour of Labour isn't the one I favour, but it still seems preferable to what the Tories are actually doing at the moment.

The Tories big fear must be Thornberry. It would be a landslide.

Benpointer said:

JosiasJessop said:

SandyRentool said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Recidivist, socialism was not a success when the USSR tried it, and it is not a success in Venezuela now.

Get a bloody grip. What the feck has totalitarian communism in the USSR got to do with democratic socialism?

Because the fear - whether justified or not - is that the 'democratic socialism' will only last until it starts to fail (as it will), and then it will go the route other countries have taken when they've tried - less democracy and socialism in name only.

I will agree that a Corbyn/McDonnell majority government will not end up like Venezuela, as that situation is unique to the country. The disaster they lead us to will be very much a British disaster.

We already have the 'British disaster'... it's called Brexit.

MarqueeMark said:

Roger said:

Recidivist said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Recidivist, hike taxes, crush commerce beneath a hundredweight of red tape, side with the Russian state over the UK state (as he did over the use of chemical weapons on British soil), axe Trident, starve the armed forces of resources (even more so than the incumbent government).

Corbyn would be a catastrophically bad PM.

And the other side would say that the Tories will slash public spending, allow bosses to exploit workers, side with the US in its imperialist ventures and, well on defence it looks like both sides plan to leave us defenceless.

I'll ignore both shades of hyperbole.

Corbyn's flavour of Labour isn't the one I favour, but it still seems preferable to what the Tories are actually doing at the moment.

The Tories big fear must be Thornberry. It would be a landslide.

Because Thornberry will do so will in Stoke and Mansfield....

Benpointer said:

Cyclefree said:

Benpointer said:

Good grief to read all these Tory bedwetters getting in a funk over a Corbyn government!...

"after 5 years of a Corbyn government we may have turned into Venezuela", "Britain won't exist after Corbyn gets his hands on it.", "[Labour will] nationalise half the economy" and "see businesses run a mile" etc.

Just stop and think for a moment:

Any Corbyn led government will be tempered by the large swathe of moderate Labour MPs and (most probably) the need to work with coalition partners.

The most likely route to Britain no longer existing is not a Corbyn government but a Tory-led No Deal followed by and independence vote in Scotland and a united Ireland vote in NI. (And I can't see Wales staying long in Little Britain after that tbh!)

And as for 'businesses running a mile' - I presume you mean any that have not been put off already by our 'fuck business' ex-Foreign Sec and prospective PM, or by the continuing uncertainty of the Brexit fiasco.

Come on guys, it might not be what you want, it might not be good for you personally, but get a grip and stop being such pathetic snowflakes - a Corbyn government would not be the end of days!

Corbyn’s brand of politics is quite as illiberal as Farage, if on a different point of the political spectrum.

I’ve no idea whether it will be the end of days. But I disagree that he will be tempered by moderate Labour MPs. They have not tempered him so far and will not do so if they are in government.

I agree though that the way the Tories are going about things is far more likely to bring an end to the union.

Well I respect your views Cyclefree but consider this... Why would Labour moderates vote for an extreme measure that wasn't in the manifesto?

If the past few years has taught us anything it should be that party discipline is a thing of the past.

viewcode said:

JosiasJessop said:

Charles said:

@JosiasJessop FPT

If you’d read the thread I didn’t name my source originally

I had a rather rude response from ManchesterKurt. So I sourced the comment. Not gratuitous.

Andy was a client at the time (or at least Boots was) and I haven’t seen him since he quit to run GalaCoral in 2011.

...You should take a leaf from RCS's book; he does it [namedropping] sparingly and with style. . ...

I was in a pub quiz with David Speigelhalter once.
I once spoke to the head of the American Statistical Association and the head of Eurostat in a conference dinner.

Pause.

Look, it counts as namedropping in my world, OK?...

MarqueeMark said:

Roger said:

Recidivist said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Recidivist, hike taxes, crush commerce beneath a hundredweight of red tape, side with the Russian state over the UK state (as he did over the use of chemical weapons on British soil), axe Trident, starve the armed forces of resources (even more so than the incumbent government).

Corbyn would be a catastrophically bad PM.

And the other side would say that the Tories will slash public spending, allow bosses to exploit workers, side with the US in its imperialist ventures and, well on defence it looks like both sides plan to leave us defenceless.

I'll ignore both shades of hyperbole.

Corbyn's flavour of Labour isn't the one I favour, but it still seems preferable to what the Tories are actually doing at the moment.

The Tories big fear must be Thornberry. It would be a landslide.

Because Thornberry will do so will in Stoke and Mansfield....

SandyRentool said:

JosiasJessop said:

SandyRentool said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Recidivist, socialism was not a success when the USSR tried it, and it is not a success in Venezuela now.

Get a bloody grip. What the feck has totalitarian communism in the USSR got to do with democratic socialism?

Because the fear - whether justified or not - is that the 'democratic socialism' will only last until it starts to fail (as it will), and then it will go the route other countries have taken when they've tried - less democracy and socialism in name only.

I will agree that a Corbyn/McDonnell majority government will not end up like Venezuela, as that situation is unique to the country. The disaster they lead us to will be very much a British disaster.

We're having a general election not a revolution. If the voters don't like what a Corbyn premiership delivers they can kick the buggers out after 5 years and give someone else a go.

Whatever our political stripe we are all democrats and every government has to answer to the electorate.

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

Cyclefree said:

Gadfly said:

Somebody once said that the Tories will only turn to Boris when they are 2 - 0 down, with 10 minutes left to play. I suspect that many Tory MPs could now be considering whether Boris is the only person who can save the day.

No. Just no. Lazy, untruthful, a disaster in the only Cabinet job he has held. He has an appalling reputation round the world at a time when Britain needs friends and to forge new relationships. His “fuck business” comment tells business all they need to know about a country which has this clown as its PM or as leader as one of the main parties.

If the Tories insist on seeing everything through some Brexit purity test they deserve to die and the sooner the better.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

It's

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/22/tories-schools-austerity-cuts-politicians

Well said.

When did you last vote Tory Cyclefree?

Yep, the Tories see their future as being a hard right English nationalist party. The pragmatic, pro-business, unionist party the Conservative party used to claim to be has died. What a prospect you offer HYUFD - a party that walks shoulder to shoulder with white supremacists, climate change deniers, protectionists, homophobes, Islamophobes and assorted other bigots. Roll on Jeremy Corbyn in that case.

</blockquote

Jimmy Anderson : Wreckers of law and order. Communists, Maoists, Trotskyists, neo-Trotskyists, crypto-Trotskyists, union leaders, Communist union leaders, atheists, agnostics, long-haired weirdos, short-haired weirdos, vandals, hooligans, football supporters, namby-pamby probation officers, rapists, papists, papist rapists, foreign surgeons - headshrinkers, who ought to be locked up, Wedgwood Benn, keg bitter, punk rock, glue-sniffers, "Play For Today", Clive Jenkins, Roy Jenkins, Up Jenkins, up everybody's, Chinese restaurants - why do you think Windsor Castle is ringed with Chinese restaurants?

Reginald Perrin : You realise the sort of people you're going to attract, don't you, Jimmy? Thugs, bully-boys, psychopaths, sacked policemen, security guards, sacked security guards, racialists, Paki-bashers, queer-bashers, Chink-bashers, anybody-bashers, rear Admirals, queer admirals, Vice Admirals, fascists, neo-fascists, crypto-fascists, loyalists, neo-loyalists, crypto-loyalists.

Jimmy Anderson : Do you think so? I thought recruitment might be difficult.

Benpointer said:

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

houndtang said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Dura_Ace said:

rottenborough said:

DavidL said:

Indeed, Hunt will lead us calmly and in a well managed way to a Corbyn premiership

So? If it us 2022 that would be 12 years of Tory led government that's a good run.

Except after 5 years of a Corbyn government we may have turned into Venezuela

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Dura_Ace said:

rottenborough said:

DavidL said:

Personally right now I’m for Hunt or Javid. Reasonably bright, reasonably competent, pragmatic. Gove as Chancellor, not as leader. Boris should be aiming to get back on HIGNFY. That is what he did best.

We urgently need a period of calm,ly won't.

The tories won't be do any governing whetherction campaign.

Indeed, Hunt will lead us calmly and in a well managed way to a Corbyn premiership

So? If it us 2022 that would be 12 years of Tory led government that's a good run.

Except after 5 years of a Corbyn government we may have turned into Venezuela

What amazes me is the lack of genuine panic in conservatism over the very real prospect of a Corbyn government. Never mind Brexit, Britain won't exist after Corbyn gets that right wingers hold dear.

You make that sound like a bad thing. Eradicating the last vestiges of Empire and ed to.

It would also lead to many of the most talented and highest income earners moving to Singapore and Geneva etc

No it won't. Who the hell would move from the Cotswolds to bloody Singapore?

Indeed, spot on.

And as for businesses running a mile - most are tied to their locality.

How are you going to run your local garage services, delivery firm, cleaning company, family solicitors, restaurant, chemist, farm, holiday let, fabrication shop, building company, etc. etc. from fucking Singapore?!

Cyclefree said:

Benpointer said:

Good grief to read all these Tory bedwetters getting in a funk over a Corbyn government!...

"after 5 years of a Corbyn government we may have turned into Venezuela", "Britain won't exist after Corbyn gets his hands on it.", "[Labour will] nationalise half the economy" and "see businesses run a mile" etc.

Just stop and think for a moment:

Any Corbyn led government will be tempered by the large swathe of moderate Labour MPs and (most probably) the need to work with coalition partners.

The most likely route to Britain no longer existing is not a Corbyn government but a Tory-led No Deal followed by and independence vote in Scotland and a united Ireland vote in NI. (And I can't see Wales staying long in Little Britain after that tbh!)

And as for 'businesses running a mile' - I presume you mean any that have not been put off already by our 'fuck business' ex-Foreign Sec and prospective PM, or by the continuing uncertainty of the Brexit fiasco.

Come on guys, it might not be what you want, it might not be good for you personally, but get a grip and stop being such pathetic snowflakes - a Corbyn government would not be the end of days!

Corbyn’s brand of politics is quite as illiberal as Farage, if on a different point of the political spectrum.

I’ve no idea whether it will be the end of days. But I disagree that he will be tempered by moderate Labour MPs. They have not tempered him so far and will not do so if they are in government.

I agree though that the way the Tories are going about things is far more likely to bring an end to the union.

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

houndtang said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Dura_Ace said:

rottenborough said:

DavidL said:

Indeed, Hunt will lead us calmly and in a well managed way to a Corbyn premiership

So? If it us 2022 that would be 12 years of Tory led government that's a good run.

Except after 5 years of a Corbyn government we may have turned into Venezuela

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Dura_Ace said:

rottenborough said:

DavidL said:

Personally right now I’m for Hunt or Javid. Reasonably bright, reasonably competent, pragmatic. Gove as Chancellor, not as leader. Boris should be aiming to get back on HIGNFY. That is what he did best.

We urgently need a period of calm,ly won't.

Indeed, Hunt will lead us calmly and in a well managed way to a Corbyn premiership

So? If it us 2022 that would be 12 years of Tory led government that's a good run.

What amazes me is the lack of genuine panic in conservatism over the very real prospect of a Corbyn government. Never mind Brexit, Britain won't exist after Corbyn gets that right wingers hold dear.

You make that sound like a bad thing. Eradicating the last vestiges of Empire and ed to.

It would also lead to many of the most talented and highest income earners moving to Singapore and Geneva etc

No it won't. Who the hell would move from the Cotswolds to bloody Singapore?

Indeed, spot on.

And as for businesses running a mile - most are tied to their locality.

How are you going to run your local garage services, delivery firm, cleaning company, family solicitors, restaurant, chemist, farm, holiday let, fabrication shop, building company, etc. etc. from fucking Singapore?!

It will be the bankers, corporate lawyers, high net worth entrepreneurs, those working at the top end of the biggest corporations moving to Switzerland and Singapore as in the 1970s, obviously it would be more difficult for smaller firms but even some of them might be tempted to sell up and move abroad

Recidivist said:

viewcode said:

JosiasJessop said:

Charles said:

@JosiasJessop FPT

If you’d read the thread I didn’t name my source originally

I had a rather rude response from ManchesterKurt. So I sourced the comment. Not gratuitous.

Andy was a client at the time (or at least Boots was) and I haven’t seen him since he quit to run GalaCoral in 2011.

...You should take a leaf from RCS's book; he does it [namedropping] sparingly and with style. . ...

I was in a pub quiz with David Speigelhalter once.
I once spoke to the head of the American Statistical Association and the head of Eurostat in a conference dinner.

Pause.

Look, it counts as namedropping in my world, OK?...

Don't drop names. Richard Peto told me that.

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

Cyclefree said:

Gadfly said:

Somebody once said that the Tories will only turn to Boris when they are 2 - 0 down, with 10 minutes left to play. I suspect that many Tory MPs could now be considering whether Boris is the only person who can save the day.

No. Just no. Lazy, untruthful, a disaster in the only Cabinet job he has held. He has an appalling reputation round the world at a time when Britain needs friends and to forge new relationships. His “fuck business” comment tells business all they need to know about a country which has this clown as its PM or as leader as one of the main parties.

If the Tories insist on seeing everything through some Brexit purity test they deserve to die and the sooner the better.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

It's tempting to view politics through the prism of the Tories' endless student union leadership psychodrama, but occasionally it's worth remembering that out there in the real world the country is falling apart and desperately needs a government that actually gives a shit about our future.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/22/tories-schools-austerity-cuts-politicians

Well said.

When did you last vote Tory Cyclefree?

If you have never voted Tory I suggest your views on what is best for the Tories and how to avoid leakage to the Brexit Party carry little weight. Trump won, Bolsonaro won, Netanyahu won, Berluconi won and Salvini now leads in Italy, Modi leads in India, the liberal left may not like it but the populist right is winning elections across the world

Yep, the Tories see their future as being a hard right English nationalist party. The pragmatic, pro-business, unionist party the Conservative party used to claim to be has died. What a prospect you offer HYUFD - a party that walks shoulder to shoulder with white supremacists, climate change deniers, protectionists, homophobes, Islamophobes and assorted other bigots. Roll on Jeremy Corbyn in that case.

From Derby to Disraeli to Joseph Chamberlain to Enoch Powell the Tories have often been nationalist and even protectionist, they are not the Liberal Party...

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

And as for businesses running a mile - most are tied to their locality.

How are you going to run your local garage services, delivery firm, cleaning company, family solicitors, restaurant, chemist, farm, holiday let, fabrication shop, building company, etc. etc. from fucking Singapore?!

It will be the bankers, corporate lawyers, high net worth entrepreneurs, those working at the top end of the biggest corporations moving to Switzerland and Singapore as in the 1970s, obviously it would be more difficult for smaller firms but even some of them might be tempted to sell up and move abroad

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

Good grief to read all these Tory bedwetters getting in a funk over a Corbyn government!...

"after 5 years of a Corbyn government we may have turned into Venezuela", "Britain won't exist after Corbyn gets his hands on it.", "[Labour will] nationalise half the economy" and "see businesses run a mile" etc.

Just stop and think for a moment:

Any Corbyn led government will be tempered by the large swathe of moderate Labour MPs and (most probably) the need to work with coalition partners.

The most likely route to Britain no longer existing is not a Corbyn government but a Tory-led No Deal followed by and independence vote in Scotland and a united Ireland vote in NI. (And I can't see Wales staying long in Little Britain after that tbh!)

And as for 'businesses running a mile' - I presume you mean any that have not been put off already by our 'fuck business' ex-Foreign Sec and prospective PM, or by the continuing uncertainty of the Brexit fiasco.

Come on guys, it might not be what you want, it might not be good for you personally, but get a grip and stop being such pathetic snowflakes - a Corbyn government would not be the end of days!

The one benefit of a Corbyn government you do point out is it would be reliant on the SNP to stay in power, so the nationalists could not keep crying out how Westminster ignores Scotland any longer

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

It will be the bankers, corporate lawyers, high net worth entrepreneurs, those working at the top end of the biggest corporations moving to Switzerland and Singapore as in the 1970s, obviously it would be more difficult for smaller firms but even some of them might be tempted to sell up and move abroad

Basically, the people who will escape will be those Labour is promising to plunder to pay for their schemes.

The people who will ACTUALLY pay for nationalisation and the other crazy shit will be the lower middle class. With their wealth and their jobs.

Cyclefree said:

MarqueeMark said:

Benpointer said:

Good grief to read all these Tory bedwetters getting in a funk over a Corbyn government!...

"after 5 years of a Corbyn government we may have turned into Venezuela", "Britain won't exist after Corbyn gets his hands on it.", "[Labour will] nationalise half the economy" and "see businesses run a mile" etc.

Just stop and think for a moment:

Any Corbyn led government will be tempered by the large swathe of moderate Labour MPs and (most probably) the need to work with coalition partners.

The most likely route to Britain no longer existing is not a Corbyn government but a Tory-led No Deal followed by and independence vote in Scotland and a united Ireland vote in NI. (And I can't see Wales staying long in Little Britain after that tbh!)

And as for 'businesses running a mile' - I presume you mean any that have not been put off already by our 'fuck business' ex-Foreign Sec and prospective PM, or by the continuing uncertainty of the Brexit fiasco.

Come on guys, it might not be what you want, it might not be good for you personally, but get a grip and stop being such pathetic snowflakes - a Corbyn government would not be the end of days!

What will temper Corbyn's ambitions won't be his MPs, all jockeying for ministerial posts and real power and deleting all their internet history where they said what a disaster Corbyn will be. No, it will be a lack of cash. And the inability to get his hands on cash at anything like reasonable rates. He will be hamstrung from day one, by the biggest flight of capital any G8 country will have ever seen - and it will have happened in the hours after the exit poll, before McDonnell ever steps inside Number 11.

How will that be worse than a country tearing up all its trade agreements, as the No Dealers seem to want?

I am hardly Corbyn’s greatest fan but the way the Tories are behaving is making even me wonder whether he could possibly be any worse.

kinabalu said:

I question the consensus that if Boris Johnson makes the final two he will win. I doubt he would.

Think about it. If the contest is this summer, which is likely, the membership will be conscious that they are choosing not just their next party leader but an individual to assume the mantle of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. That is a massive responsibility for those doing the choosing and they are going to feel it. It will weigh heavily.

These are not ordinary feckless members of the public, remember, they are fully paid up members of the Conservative Party. They have a higher than average sense of propriety and civic duty. That is one of the reasons they joined in the first place. They are also a lot older than most people, meaning that although teeth may be in short supply, wisdom is not.

So bearing all of this in mind, how likely is it, despite what we are told by ‘polls’, that when push comes to shove this august body of electors will foist a man as unfit for office as Boris Johnson on a horrified nation?

Not very. He’s a lay.

Cyclefree said:

I hope you are right.

But:-

1. Party discipline seems much stronger within Labour.
2. The fact of being in government will make it very much easier for MPs to override any objections they may have to one individual measure. They will persuade themselves - or be persuaded - that a measure may not be as extreme as all that.
3. The fear of deselections.
4. They won’t want to be blamed for undermining a Labour government.
5. They have done the square root of fuck all to temper Corbyn on anti-semitism.

So I do not place much faith in moderate Labour MPs, frankly.