Boris Johnson surges to a big lead in the new Conservative Home next Tory leader Tory members poll putting on 10% to reach 32%, 18 percent ahead of second placed Raab on 14%.
I just dont get his appeal anymore. His schtick is stale and overblown, he is not ideologically pure, he's not particularly competent and he seems to have no plan for anything. Hes not a new face and he even ended up voting for the deal, blowing apart the refrain that it is not Brexit (just that it is a crap Brexit).
And yet he is the most popular generally. It's weird.
Boris is probably the Tories only chance now to beat Corbyn, it is that simple.
He has charisma and can win back voters lost to the Brexit Party and he only voted for the Deal the third time after voting against it twice as he correctly pointed out the alternative was probably not No Deal but further extension of Article 50 and possibly no Brexit at all
He's the best known and the most disliked. In what way does that make him a good chance? The public know him and loathe him.
Correction, Boris is the most liked of the contenders to succeed May but also the most disliked bar Gove, diehard Remainers like you loathe Boris, most Leavers love Boris and it is the latter not the former the Tories will need to beat Corbyn.
Being a Marmite figure did not stop Trump winning either
Boris Johnson surges to a big lead in the new Conservative Home next Tory leader Tory members poll putting on 10% to reach 32%, 18 percent ahead of second placed Raab on 14%.
I just dont get his appeal anymore. His schtick is stale and overblown, he is not ideologically pure, he's not particularly competent and he seems to have no plan for anything. Hes not a new face and he even ended up voting for the deal, blowing apart the refrain that it is not Brexit (just that it is a crap Brexit).
And yet he is the most popular generally. It's weird.
Boris is probably the Tories only chance now to beat Corbyn, it is that simple.
He has charisma and can win back voters lost to the Brexit Party and he only voted for the Deal the third time after voting against it twice as he correctly pointed out the alternative was probably not No Deal but further extension of Article 50 and possibly no Brexit at all
In short, a snake oil salesman.
Of course.
Boris hasn't done his prep because he is too lazy, is at least unwittingly racist, is a shameless liar, adulterer and bully, who will rat on longstanding friends if he sees a short term gain for himself. He is the perfect candidate for the party of Brexit. Brexit is a farce, so put the clown in charge.
What is clear is all the current Cabinet are contaminated by May with the membership and have not got a hope, if not Boris look for a hard Brexiteer backbencher like Priti Patel, Raab or McVey.
That's quite a selection, I guess the membership like them dim?
On what prospectus is any leader going to unite the Parliamentary party?
Renegotiate? Seems to work until you actually have to try and do it. So promise to renegotiate, then call a GE to get a mandate for your renegotiation. If you win you get another 5 years, and hopefully a majority and some political capital that you can spend passing TMay's deal.
The killer for the Conservatives is that the candidates are all going to have to set out their views on no deal. They can please the membership or they can command the confidence of the House of Commons. They can’t do both.
The membership will not vote for any candidate who prefers revoke and Remain to No Deal that is clear and at the end of the day 160 Tory MPs have already voted for No Deal in the indicative votes, even though less than the 280 who voted for May's Deal in the last vote that is still enough to get a hard Brexiteer in the final 2
On what prospectus is any leader going to unite the Parliamentary party?
Renegotiate? Seems to work until you actually have to try and do it. So promise to renegotiate, then call a GE to get a mandate for your renegotiation. If you win you get another 5 years, and hopefully a majority and some political capital that you can spend passing TMay's deal.
The killer for the Conservatives is that the candidates are all going to have to set out their views on no deal. They can please the membership or they can command the confidence of the House of Commons. They can’t do both.
The membership will not vote for any candidate who prefers revoke and Remain to No Deal that is clear and at the end of the day 160 Tory MPs have already voted for No Deal in the indicative votes, even though less than the 284 who voted for May's Deal in the last vote that is still enough to get a hard Brexiteer in the final 2
You miss the other half of what I said. Becoming Prime Minister is not just about becoming Conservative party leader.
If the answer to the question is Boris, then we're probably asking the wrong question.
I would only disagree if the alternative was that snake in the grass Gove, otherwise I am with you.
I'm in the odd position of quite liking Boris's personality, whilst thinking he'd make a terrible PM. Whilst I dislike Gove's personality, but think he might make a reasonable PM ...
There's a difference between liking someone, or even agreeing with their views, and thinking they'd be good in a particular role.
I suspect Michael Gove would be engaging company. He has an endlessly enquiring mind. That’s not necessarily a good thing in a politician.
I think both Gove and Boris would be engaging company. I think Gove might listen and even be persuadable
He really isn't. That's why his education reforms have bombed. With a bit of tweaking and a longer lead in time they could have been the best thing in education since 1903. But it was his way or the highway, and because none of the people working with him had the least understanding of education (with the honourable exception of Wilshaw, whom he apparently came to dislike) they proved the worst disaster since 1870.
It does look like it will be Boris, they’re that desperate and crazy.
Given the mass defections of Tory Leave voters to the Brexit Party if the Tories are to beat Corbyn they cannot have any of the current Cabinet leading them in all likelihood, they will all be contaminated by refusing to resign not only after May's Deal but also by staying in the Cabinet after her extensions of Article 50 beyond the planned Brexit Day, only a charismatic hard Brexiteer will do, that means Boris, maybe Raab
Raab is an egotistical narcissist that resigned over the deal he negotiated and doesn’t know that Dover matters to the UK economy.
Boris is also an egotistical narcissist, who thinks he’s the reincarnation of Churchill and cultivates a bumbling persona to deflect attention from a two decade long campaign to see himself in number 10. That is all he cares about. The man who wrote two articles, one leave one remain, picking the one to get home closer to number ten.
Neither are great potential PMs.
If only they knew it they have the perfect candidate in Justine Greening. A Remainer but unlike all other Tory possibles she looks and sounds human
On what prospectus is any leader going to unite the Parliamentary party?
Renegotiate? Seems to work until you actually have to try and do it. So promise to renegotiate, then call a GE to get a mandate for your renegotiation. If you win you get another 5 years, and hopefully a majority and some political capital that you can spend passing TMay's deal.
The killer for the Conservatives is that the candidates are all going to have to set out their views on no deal. They can please the membership or they can command the confidence of the House of Commons. They can’t do both.
The membership will not vote for any candidate who prefers revoke and Remain to No Deal that is clear and at the end of the day 160 Tory MPs have already voted for No Deal in the indicative votes, even though less than the 284 who voted for May's Deal in the last vote that is still enough to get a hard Brexiteer in the final 2
You miss the other half of what I said. Becoming Prime Minister is not just about becoming Conservative party leader.
It is dependent on the DUP too at the moment and they are clear they prefer No Deal to May's Deal and the backstop so if May's Deal fails again either the DUP will back a new hard Brexit Tory leader as PM pushing No Deal or if May's Deal passes a 4th time (maybe with a Customs Union but not full SM for GB in the PD) we will either have a general election or the DUP will switch to back Corbyn and SM and Customs Union BINO which they have also said they prefer to May's Deal and the backstop
He would make an effective chief of staff. Definitely a great CoTE .
Has he got the sales pitch for middle ground non Con voters ? Not sure.
Oddly, I would agree with that. He's a brilliant administrator, clearly has a wide range of knowledge and interests, and his energy is impressive. Which means when he is right, he is formidable.
However, he has the judgement of a dead stoat, and is too insecure to change his mind unless he is compelled to. So when he gets things wrong, and nobody corrects him, the result is usually an unmitigated catastrophe.
That alone should rule him out of the top job.
An opinion I 90% agree with. On the other hand, while he has not acknowledged his errors at Education, he has shown some signs of learning from other mistakes in recent years.
An academic discussion, anyway, as I doubt he’ll even get close.
If the answer to the question is Boris, then we're probably asking the wrong question.
I would only disagree if the alternative was that snake in the grass Gove, otherwise I am with you.
I'm in the odd position of quite liking Boris's personality, whilst thinking he'd make a terrible PM. Whilst I dislike Gove's personality, but think he might make a reasonable PM ...
There's a difference between liking someone, or even agreeing with their views, and thinking they'd be good in a particular role.
I suspect Michael Gove would be engaging company. He has an endlessly enquiring mind. That’s not necessarily a good thing in a politician.
I think both Gove and Boris would be engaging company. I think Gove might listen and even be persuadable
He really isn't. That's why his education reforms have bombed. With a bit of tweaking and a longer lead in time they could have been the best thing in education since 1903. But it was his way or the highway, and because none of the people working with him had the least understanding of education (with the honourable exception of Wilshaw, whom he apparently came to dislike) they proved the worst disaster since 1870.
As a parent I think the reforms were long overdue and welcome.
Teachers moaned but that’s what they do and it isn’t really about them.
If the answer to the question is Boris, then we're probably asking the wrong question.
I would only disagree if the alternative was that snake in the grass Gove, otherwise I am with you.
I'm in the odd position of quite liking Boris's personality, whilst thinking he'd make a terrible PM. Whilst I dislike Gove's personality, but think he might make a reasonable PM ...
There's a difference between liking someone, or even agreeing with their views, and thinking they'd be good in a particular role.
I suspect Michael Gove would be engaging company. He has an endlessly enquiring mind. That’s not necessarily a good thing in a politician.
I think both Gove and Boris would be engaging company. I think Gove might listen and even be persuadable
He really isn't. That's why his education reforms have bombed. With a bit of tweaking and a longer lead in time they could have been the best thing in education since 1903. But it was his way or the highway, and because none of the people working with him had the least understanding of education (with the honourable exception of Wilshaw, whom he apparently came to dislike) they proved the worst disaster since 1870.
As a parent I think the reforms were long overdue and welcome.
Teachers moaned but that’s what they do and it isn’t really about them.
Let me ask you a question. Is it acceptable to make students sit exams when no marking criteria have been settled for them, rendering the grades no better than guesswork?
Because if you say 'no,' you are accepting his reforms have failed.
Edit - it is perhaps also worth remembering that as grade boundaries were adjusted to keep pass marks similar/comparable the entire rationale for the reforms was lost anyway.
What is clear is all the current Cabinet are contaminated by May with the membership and have not got a hope, if not Boris look for a hard Brexiteer backbencher like Priti Patel, Raab or McVey.
That's quite a selection, I guess the membership like them dim?
Watt are you saying?
That the Tories should resist any of the current choices....
On what prospectus is any leader going to unite the Parliamentary party?
Renegotiate? Seems to work until you actually have to try and do it. So promise to renegotiate, then call a GE to get a mandate for your renegotiation. If you win you get another 5 years, and hopefully a majority and some political capital that you can spend passing TMay's deal.
The killer for the Conservatives is that the candidates are all going to have to set out their views on no deal. They can please the membership or they can command the confidence of the House of Commons. They can’t do both.
The membership will not vote for any candidate who prefers revoke and Remain to No Deal that is clear and at the end of the day 160 Tory MPs have already voted for No Deal in the indicative votes, even though less than the 284 who voted for May's Deal in the last vote that is still enough to get a hard Brexiteer in the final 2
You miss the other half of what I said. Becoming Prime Minister is not just about becoming Conservative party leader.
It is dependent on the DUP too at the moment and they are clear they prefer No Deal to May's Deal and the backstop so if May's Deal fails again either the DUP will back a new hard Brexit Tory leader as PM pushing No Deal or if May's Deal passes a 4th time (maybe with a Customs Union but not full SM for GB in the PD) we will either have a general election or the DUP will switch to back Corbyn and SM and Customs Union BINO which they have also said they prefer to May's Deal and the backstop
It is dependent on more than the DUP. Two questions for you:
1) what is the Government’s current majority?
2) how many Conservative MPs do you think would defect if Boris Johnson became leader?
What is clear is all the current Cabinet are contaminated by May with the membership and have not got a hope, if not Boris look for a hard Brexiteer backbencher like Priti Patel, Raab or McVey.
That's quite a selection, I guess the membership like them dim?
Watt are you saying?
That the Tories should resist any of the current choices....
Boris Johnson surges to a big lead in the new Conservative Home next Tory leader Tory members poll putting on 10% to reach 32%, 18 percent ahead of second placed Raab on 14%.
I just dont get his appeal anymore. His schtick is stale and overblown, he is not ideologically pure, he's not particularly competent and he seems to have no plan for anything. Hes not a new face and he even ended up voting for the deal, blowing apart the refrain that it is not Brexit (just that it is a crap Brexit).
And yet he is the most popular generally. It's weird.
Boris is probably the Tories only chance now to beat Corbyn, it is that simple.
He has charisma and can win back voters lost to the Brexit Party and he only voted for the Deal the third time after voting against it twice as he correctly pointed out the alternative was probably not No Deal but further extension of Article 50 and possibly no Brexit at all
He's the best known and the most disliked. In what way does that make him a good chance? The public know him and loathe him.
Correction, Boris is the most liked of the contenders to succeed May but also the most disliked bar Gove, diehard Remainers like you loathe Boris, most Leavers love Boris and it is the latter not the former the Tories will need to beat Corbyn.
Being a Marmite figure did not stop Trump winning either
Why do leavers love boris? He voted for the deal.
Did you read what I wrote earlier?
Boris voted against the Deal twice, as Boris said he only voted for the Deal the third time as the likely alternative was further extension of Article 50 and possibly no Brexit at all.
On that Boris was actually proved correct.
However if Leavers want a No Deal diehard who voted against May's Deal on all 3 occasions there is always Priti Patel or Mark Francois!
If the not inconsiderable batch of MPs who have said they would resign the party if Boris became leader actually mean it, electing him would be a high risk option. The consequences will be high in MPs minds if not all of the members.
David Herdson and I were having a twitter disagreement about a related subject yesterday.
At present the Conservatives and the DUP have a majority of three. Let’s assume that Boris Johnson is elected leader of the Conservative party. Does he even get to be called to be Prime Minister if a sufficient number of Conservative MPs then resign the whip?
And what would be a sufficient number? There are now over 20 independent MPs. They might not all vote the same way in a vote of no confidence (they probably wouldn’t). If ten Conservative MPs left, however, it is hard to see how Boris Johnson could credibly claim to expect to command the confidence of the House. And it might be a lot more than ten who left.
IANAL but I guess TMay would have quite a lot of power in this situation.
There's always the possibility of negotiating support from somewhere, so if she wanted to facilitate the transition, she could resign as soon as the results come in, and recommend the new leader as her successor. At that point the negative wouldn't be proven, and if she's going you have to fill the vacancy, so it's hard to see Her Majesty rejecting her advice.
However, equally she could do it the Gordon Brown way: The new guy may not have a majority, so TMay stays on and waits while they negotiate, and only stands down if and when it looks like somebody has a majority. If that doesn't look like happening, you potentially go directly to Corbyn or a caretaker or whoever can put together a majority on paper.
Potentially TMay could even stay on as PM right through an election campaign...
Gove became an effective minister once Dominic Cummings ceased to be his key aide.
But if he's got such poor judgement of personnel that the appointment or dismissal of one key aide could make such a massive difference (one, let it not be forgotten, who has never had any role in politics, administration, or education yet poses as an expert on all of them) that also suggests he should have no say over cabinet appointments.
It does look like it will be Boris, they’re that desperate and crazy.
Given the mass defections of Tory Leave voters to the Brexit Party if the Tories are to beat Corbyn they cannot have any of the current Cabinet leading them in all likelihood, they will all be contaminated by refusing to resign not only after May's Deal but also by staying in the Cabinet after her extensions of Article 50 beyond the planned Brexit Day, only a charismatic hard Brexiteer will do, that means Boris, maybe Raab
Raab is an egotistical narcissist that resigned over the deal he negotiated and doesn’t know that Dover matters to the UK economy.
Boris is also an egotistical narcissist, who thinks he’s the reincarnation of Churchill and cultivates a bumbling persona to deflect attention from a two decade long campaign to see himself in number 10. That is all he cares about. The man who wrote two articles, one leave one remain, picking the one to get home closer to number ten.
Neither are great potential PMs.
If only they knew it they have the perfect candidate in Justine Greening. A Remainer but unlike all other Tory possibles she looks and sounds human
Greening will likely shortly defect to join CUK anyway judging by the rumours so she May not even be in the Tories much longer, Greening also has more chance of being the next CUK leader then the next Tory leader
Gove became an effective minister once Dominic Cummings ceased to be his key aide.
But if he's got such poor judgement of personnel that the appointment or dismissal of one key aide could make such a massive difference (one, let it not be forgotten, who has never had any role in politics, administration, or education yet poses as an expert on all of them) that also suggests he should have no say over cabinet appointments.
What is clear is all the current Cabinet are contaminated by May with the membership and have not got a hope, if not Boris look for a hard Brexiteer backbencher like Priti Patel, Raab or McVey.
That's quite a selection, I guess the membership like them dim?
Watt are you saying?
That the Tories should resist any of the current choices....
None of them are volting to the top of the line.
Is there anything which might amp up their prospects ?
Boris Johnson surges to a big lead in the new Conservative Home next Tory leader Tory members poll putting on 10% to reach 32%, 18 percent ahead of second placed Raab on 14%.
I just dont get his appeal anymore. His schtick is stale and overblown, he is not ideologically pure, he's not particularly competent and he seems to have no plan for anything. Hes not a new face and he even ended up voting for the deal, blowing apart the refrain that it is not Brexit (just that it is a crap Brexit).
And yet he is the most popular generally. It's weird.
Boris is probably the Tories only chance now to beat Corbyn, it is that simple.
He has charisma and can win back voters lost to the Brexit Party and he only voted for the Deal the third time after voting against it twice as he correctly pointed out the alternative was probably not No Deal but further extension of Article 50 and possibly no Brexit at all
He's the best known and the most disliked. In what way does that make him a good chance? The public know him and loathe him.
Correction, Boris is the most liked of the contenders to succeed May but also the most disliked bar Gove, diehard Remainers like you loathe Boris, most Leavers love Boris and it is the latter not the former the Tories will need to beat Corbyn.
Being a Marmite figure did not stop Trump winning either
Why do leavers love boris? He voted for the deal.
Did you read what I wrote earlier?
Boris voted against the Deal twice, as Boris said he only voted for the Deal the third time as the likely alternative was further extension of Article 50 and possibly no Brexit at all.
On that Boris was actually proved correct.
However if Leavers want a No Deal diehard who voted against May's Deal on all 3 occasions there is always Priti Patel or Mark Francois!
May was also correct that voting down her deal risked Brexit, and Boris said that was nonsense before agreeing in the end. I dont see May getting credit for that.
The die hards still insist the deal is not Brexit while Boris does think it is. That's why i am surprised a die harder is not doing better
If the not inconsiderable batch of MPs who have said they would resign the party if Boris became leader actually mean it, electing him would be a high risk option. The consequences will be high in MPs minds if not all of the members.
David Herdson and I were having a twitter disagreement about a related subject yesterday.
At present the Conservatives and the DUP have a majority of three. Let’s assume that Boris Johnson is elected leader of the Conservative party. Does he even get to be called to be Prime Minister if a sufficient number of Conservative MPs then resign the whip?
And what would be a sufficient number? There are now over 20 independent MPs. They might not all vote the same way in a vote of no confidence (they probably wouldn’t). If ten Conservative MPs left, however, it is hard to see how Boris Johnson could credibly claim to expect to command the confidence of the House. And it might be a lot more than ten who left.
IANAL but I guess TMay would have quite a lot of power in this situation.
There's always the possibility of negotiating support from somewhere, so if she wanted to facilitate the transition, she could resign as soon as the results come in, and recommend the new leader as her successor. At that point the negative wouldn't be proven, and if she's going you have to fill the vacancy, so it's hard to see Her Majesty rejecting her advice.
However, equally she could do it the Gordon Brown way: The new guy may not have a majority, so TMay stays on and waits while they negotiate, and only stands down if and when it looks like somebody has a majority. If that doesn't look like happening, you potentially go directly to Corbyn or a caretaker or whoever can put together a majority on paper.
Potentially TMay could even stay on as PM right through an election campaign...
I agree with all of that, with the rider that the Palace could consult other figures if it thought that the Prime Minister was being unreasonably optimistic about the incomer’s chances. I would expect Theresa May in practice to stay in harness until it was clear how things were going to pan out.
Potentially TMay could even stay on as PM right through an election campaign...
I'm trying to work out if there has ever been a PM who led the country through an election campaign while acknowledged potential successors slugged it out. I honestly can't think of such a case. Portland in 1808 would be the nearest equivalent, but it wouldn't be a near equivalent as he was party leader even if it was understood Perceval would be taking over in the near future.
On what prospectus is any leader going to unite the Parliamentary party?
Renegotiate? Seems to work until you actually have to try and do it. So promise to renegotiate, then call a GE to get a mandate for your renegotiation. If you win you get another 5 years, and hopefully a majority and some political capital that you can spend passing TMay's deal.
The killer for the Conservatives is that the candidates are all going to have to set out their views on no deal. They can please the membership or they can command the confidence of the House of Commons. They can’t do both.
The membership will not vote for any candidate who prefers revoke and Remain to No Deal that is clear and at the end of the day 160 Tory MPs have already voted for No Deal in the indicative votes, even though less than the 284 who voted for May's Deal in the last vote that is still enough to get a hard Brexiteer in the final 2
You miss the other half of what I said. Becoming Prime Minister is not just about becoming Conservative party leader.
It is dependent on the DUP too at the moment and they are clear they prefer No Deal to May's Deal and the backstop so if May's Deal fails again either the DUP will back a new hard Brexit Tory leader as PM pushing No Deal or if May's Deal passes a 4th time (maybe with a Customs Union but not full SM for GB in the PD) we will either have a general election or the DUP will switch to back Corbyn and SM and Customs Union BINO which they have also said they prefer to May's Deal and the backstop
It is dependent on more than the DUP. Two questions for you:
1) what is the Government’s current majority?
2) how many Conservative MPs do you think would defect if Boris Johnson became leader?
1) Excluding Sinn Fein and with the 3 Tory MPs lost to TIG/CUK but adding in the DUP 8, exciting the DUP 0.
2) Grieve, maybe Lee and Greening that is about it. In any case given in my view only Boris can beat Corbyn that would be a small price to pay
If the answer to the question is Boris, then we're probably asking the wrong question.
I would only disagree if the alternative was that snake in the grass Gove, otherwise I am with you.
I'm in the odd position of quite liking Boris's personality, whilst thinking he'd make a terrible PM. Whilst I dislike Gove's personality, but think he might make a reasonable PM ...
There's a difference between liking someone, or even agreeing with their views, and thinking they'd be good in a particular role.
I suspect Michael Gove would be engaging company. He has an endlessly enquiring mind. That’s not necessarily a good thing in a politician.
What is clear is all the current Cabinet are contaminated by May with the membership and have not got a hope, if not Boris look for a hard Brexiteer backbencher like Priti Patel, Raab or McVey.
That's quite a selection, I guess the membership like them dim?
Watt are you saying?
That the Tories should resist any of the current choices....
None of them are volting to the top of the line.
Is there anything which might amp up their prospects ?
If some of them switched it might help, but this will go to the wire.
And with that, I have A-level coursework to mark. Have a good morning.
Potentially TMay could even stay on as PM right through an election campaign...
I'm trying to work out if there has ever been a PM who led the country through an election campaign while acknowledged potential successors slugged it out. I honestly can't think of such a case. Portland in 1808 would be the nearest equivalent, but it wouldn't be a near equivalent as he was party leader even if it was understood Perceval would be taking over in the near future.
Potentially TMay could even stay on as PM right through an election campaign...
I'm trying to work out if there has ever been a PM who led the country through an election campaign while acknowledged potential successors slugged it out. I honestly can't think of such a case. Portland in 1808 would be the nearest equivalent, but it wouldn't be a near equivalent as he was party leader even if it was understood Perceval would be taking over in the near future.
Aznar in Spain in 2004
Spain isn't part of the UK, although it would simplify matters Gibraltarian considerably if it was!
What is clear is all the current Cabinet are contaminated by May with the membership and have not got a hope, if not Boris look for a hard Brexiteer backbencher like Priti Patel, Raab or McVey.
That's quite a selection, I guess the membership like them dim?
Watt are you saying?
That the Tories should resist any of the current choices....
None of them are volting to the top of the line.
Is there anything which might amp up their prospects ?
If some of them switched it might help, but this will go to the wire.
And with that, I have A-level coursework to mark. Have a good morning.
Boris Johnson surges to a big lead in the new Conservative Home next Tory leader Tory members poll putting on 10% to reach 32%, 18 percent ahead of second placed Raab on 14%.
I just dont get his appeal anymore. His schtick is stale and overblown, he is not ideologically pure, he's not particularly competent and he seems to have no plan for anything. Hes not a new face and he even ended up voting for the deal, blowing apart the refrain that it is not Brexit (just that it is a crap Brexit).
And yet he is the most popular generally. It's weird.
Boris is probably the Tories only chance now to beat Corbyn, it is that simple.
He has charisma and can win back voters lost to the Brexit Party and he only voted for the Deal the third time after voting against it twice as he correctly pointed out the alternative was probably not No Deal but further extension of Article 50 and possibly no Brexit at all
He's the best known and the most disliked. In what way does that make him a good chance? The public know him and loathe him.
Correction, Boris is the most liked of the contenders to succeed May but also the most disliked bar Gove, diehard Remainers like you loathe Boris, most Leavers love Boris and it is the latter not the former the Tories will need to beat Corbyn.
Being a Marmite figure did not stop Trump winning either
Why do leavers love boris? He voted for the deal.
Did you read what I wrote earlier?
Boris voted against the Deal twice, as Boris said he only voted for the Deal the third time as the likely alternative was further extension of Article 50 and possibly no Brexit at all.
On that Boris was actually proved correct.
However if Leavers want a No Deal diehard who voted against May's Deal on all 3 occasions there is always Priti Patel or Mark Francois!
May was also correct that voting down her deal risked Brexit, and Boris said that was nonsense before agreeing in the end. I dont see May getting credit for that.
The die hards still insist the deal is not Brexit while Boris does think it is. That's why i am surprised a die harder is not doing better
If it was down to the membership alone we could have a Boris v Patel or Francois contest, with Boris being the moderate candidate.
If you’d read the thread I didn’t name my source originally
I had a rather rude response from ManchesterKurt. So I sourced the comment. Not gratuitous.
Andy was a client at the time (or at least Boots was) and I haven’t seen him since he quit to run GalaCoral in 2011.
The problem you face, Charles, is that sometimes when you namedrop to support a 'fact', the fact you're supporting is wrong. It's happened a couple of times, and it doesn't matter how important you claim the person who told you something was, the facts were still wrong.
You should take a leaf from RCS's book; he does it sparingly and with style.
But in the spirit of comradeship, a happy Easter Monday to you and all PBers! I hope you'll all enjoy the sunshine before work subsumes most of us once more ...
An unpleasant post. This site benefits greatly from the insights of its posters.
Yes, as my old friend the Archbishop said to me over pineapple pizza the other night...
You’re lying!!
When I was watching Die Hard with ++Justin last Christmas he told me he hated pineapple
The killer for the Conservatives is that the candidates are all going to have to set out their views on no deal. They can please the membership or they can command the confidence of the House of Commons. They can’t do both.
The membership will not vote for any candidate who prefers revoke and Remain to No Deal that is clear and at the end of the day 160 Tory MPs have already voted for No Deal in the indicative votes, even though less than the 284 who voted for May's Deal in the last vote that is still enough to get a hard Brexiteer in the final 2
You miss the other half of what I said. Becoming Prime Minister is not just about becoming Conservative party leader.
It is dependent on the DUP too at the moment and they are clear they prefer No Deal to May's Deal and the backstop so if May's Deal fails again either the DUP will back a new hard Brexit Tory leader as PM pushing No Deal or if May's Deal passes a 4th time (maybe with a Customs Union but not full SM for GB in the PD) we will either have a general election or the DUP will switch to back Corbyn and SM and Customs Union BINO which they have also said they prefer to May's Deal and the backstop
It is dependent on more than the DUP. Two questions for you:
1) what is the Government’s current majority?
2) how many Conservative MPs do you think would defect if Boris Johnson became leader?
1) Excluding Sinn Fein and with the 3 Tory MPs lost to TIG/CUK but adding in the DUP 8, exciting the DUP 0.
2) Grieve, maybe Lee and Greening that is about it. In any case given in my view only Boris can beat Corbyn that would be a small price to pay
Your counting is atrocious on both fronts. The Conservatives currently have 313 MPs (excluding the Speaker). The DUP have 10. That’s 323.
Against them there are 246 Labour MPs, 35 SNP MPs, 11 Lib Dems, 10 CUK, 4 Plaid Cymru, 1 Green and 12 other independents. That’s 319. Leaving the Speaker out of account, that’s a majority of 4.
As for your tally of deserting MPs, for starters, Ken Clarke is on the record as saying he would move to CUK if a hard Leaver is elected. The total would be closer to 30 than to 3 in my opinion. There is a substantial body of MPs who have reluctantly backed the deal. They will not countenance no deal and will not facilitate it.
The problem you face, Charles, is that sometimes when you namedrop to support a 'fact', the fact you're supporting is wrong. It's happened a couple of times, and it doesn't matter how important you claim the person who told you something was, the facts were still wrong.
Corbyn's "cancer" will probably turn out to be piles.
You’ll will, of course, recall that I said it was second hand gossip and I passed it on “for what it was worth”
Personally right now I’m for Hunt or Javid. Reasonably bright, reasonably competent, pragmatic. Gove as Chancellor, not as leader. Boris should be aiming to get back on HIGNFY. That is what he did best.
Somebody once said that the Tories will only turn to Boris when they are 2 - 0 down, with 10 minutes left to play. I suspect that many Tory MPs could now be considering whether Boris is the only person who can save the day.
No. Just no. Lazy, untruthful, a disaster in the only Cabinet job he has held. He has an appalling reputation round the world at a time when Britain needs friends and to forge new relationships. His “fuck business” comment tells business all they need to know about a country which has this clown as its PM or as leader as one of the main parties.
If the Tories insist on seeing everything through some Brexit purity test they deserve to die and the sooner the better.
It's tempting to view politics through the prism of the Tories' endless student union leadership psychodrama, but occasionally it's worth remembering that out there in the real world the country is falling apart and desperately needs a government that actually gives a shit about our future.
Personally right now I’m for Hunt or Javid. Reasonably bright, reasonably competent, pragmatic. Gove as Chancellor, not as leader. Boris should be aiming to get back on HIGNFY. That is what he did best.
Neither have a hope given the mood amongst the membership, the only candidate MPs might put forward who has a chance against Boris with the membership is Raab
Potentially TMay could even stay on as PM right through an election campaign...
I'm trying to work out if there has ever been a PM who led the country through an election campaign while acknowledged potential successors slugged it out. I honestly can't think of such a case. Portland in 1808 would be the nearest equivalent, but it wouldn't be a near equivalent as he was party leader even if it was understood Perceval would be taking over in the near future.
Aznar in Spain in 2004
Spain isn't part of the UK, although it would simplify matters Gibraltarian considerably if it was!
If only Mary and Phillip II had clicked.
Reino de España y el Reino Unido de Gran Bretaña, one nation indissoluble.
Personally right now I’m for Hunt or Javid. Reasonably bright, reasonably competent, pragmatic. Gove as Chancellor, not as leader. Boris should be aiming to get back on HIGNFY. That is what he did best.
We urgently need a period of calm, well managed government. Personally Hunt looks more likely to deliver this. Boris certainly won't.
Boris Johnson surges to a big lead in the new Conservative Home next Tory leader Tory members poll putting on 10% to reach 32%, 18 percent ahead of second placed Raab on 14%.
I just dont get his appeal anymore. His schtick is stale and overblown, he is not ideologically pure, he's not particularly competent and he seems to have no plan for anything. Hes not a new face and he even ended up voting for the deal, blowing apart the refrain that it is not Brexit (just that it is a crap Brexit).
And yet he is the most popular generally. It's weird.
Boris is probably the Tories only chance now to beat Corbyn, it is that simple.
He has charisma and can win back voters lost to the Brexit Party and he only voted for the Deal the third time after voting against it twice as he correctly pointed out the alternative was probably not No Deal but further extension of Article 50 and possibly no Brexit at all
He's the best known and the most disliked. In what way does that make him a good chance? The public know him and loathe him.
Correction, Boris is the most liked of the contenders to succeed May but also the most disliked bar Gove, diehard Remainers like you loathe Boris, most Leavers love Boris and it is the latter not the former the Tories will need to beat Corbyn.
Being a Marmite figure did not stop Trump winning either
Why do leavers love boris? He voted for the deal.
He is all over the place long term on many many issues. And he pushes everything out behind the Telegraph paywall, least with Trump his opinions are always free to air.
The idea that a No Deal departure, with all the disruption that will cause, not just in the short-term but to other countries’ willingness to enter into agreements with Britain on anything, should be the preferred option of a significant percentage of a party of government simply shows that the Tories are not fit to be in government.
The Tories - and the country - need a leader who is prepared to speak some hard truths to them about what is needed for countries to earn their way in the world. Purity tests and a refusal to compromise with anyone outside these shores are the opposite of what is needed. Sadly for them (and us) there is no-one, other than Ken Clarke, with the courage to do this.
The killer for the Conservatives is that the candidates are all going to have to set out their views on no deal. They can please the membership or they can command the confidence of the House of Commons. They can’t do both.
The membership will not vote for any candidate who prefers revoke and Remain to No Deal that is clear and at the end of the day 160 Tory MPs have already voted for No Deal in the indicative votes, even though less than the 284 who voted for May's Deal in the last vote that is still enough to get a hard Brexiteer in the final 2
You miss the other half of what I said. Becoming Prime Minister is not just about becoming Conservative party leader.
It is dependent on the DUP too at the moment and they are clear they prefer ave also said they prefer to May's Deal and the backstop
It is dependent on more than the DUP. Two questions for you:
1) what is the Government’s current majority?
2) how many Conservative MPs do you think would defect if Boris Johnson became leader?
1) Excluding Sinn Fein and with the 3 Tory MPs lost to TIG/CUK but adding in the DUP 8, exciting the DUP 0.
2) Grieve, maybe Lee and Greening that is about it. In any case given in my view only Boris can beat Corbyn that would be a small price to pay
Your counting is atrocious on both fronts. The Conservatives currently have 313 MPs (excluding the Speaker). The DUP have 10. That’s 323.
Against them there are 246 Labour MPs, 35 SNP MPs, 11 Lib Dems, 10 CUK, 4 Plaid Cymru, 1 Green and 12 other independents. That’s 319. Leaving the Speaker out of account, that’s a majority of 4.
As for your tally of deserting MPs, for starters, Ken Clarke is on the record as saying he would move to CUK if a hard Leaver is elected. The total would be closer to 30 than to 3 in my opinion. There is a substantial body of MPs who have reluctantly backed the deal. They will not countenance no deal and will not facilitate it.
The Tories won 318 MPs since the general election since when 3 defected to TIG, Allen, Wollaston and Soubry making 315. Boles now sits as an Independent Conservative and would still support May maybe even Boris over Corbyn, as does Grieve who would also support May over Corbyn.
Add together the DUP and the Tories you still get a clear majority, minus the DUP then you do not. However Corbyn would not get a majority for a general election let alone to become PM without DUP support.
Whether even 30 Tory MPs moved to CUK is irrelevant as they would still have to VONC the government for it it fall or put Corbyn in as PM
The idea that a No Deal departure, with all the disruption that will cause, not just in the short-term but to other countries’ willingness to enter into agreements with Britain on anything, should be the preferred option of a significant percentage of a party of government simply shows that the Tories are not fit to be in government.
The Tories - and the country - need a leader who is prepared to speak some hard truths to them about what is needed for countries to earn their way in the world. Purity tests and a refusal to compromise with anyone outside these shores are the opposite of what is needed. Sadly for them (and us) there is no-one, other than Ken Clarke, with the courage to do this.
If Ken Clarke led the Tories now the Brexit Party could certainly overtake the Tories and become the main opposition to Labour.
Clarke has more chance of defecting and becoming the next CUK leader then the next Tory leader
Somebody once said that the Tories will only turn to Boris when they are 2 - 0 down, with 10 minutes left to play. I suspect that many Tory MPs could now be considering whether Boris is the only person who can save the day.
No. Just no. Lazy, untruthful, a disaster in the only Cabinet job he has held. He has an appalling reputation round the world at a time when Britain needs friends and to forge new relationships. His “fuck business” comment tells business all they need to know about a country which has this clown as its PM or as leader as one of the main parties.
If the Tories insist on seeing everything through some Brexit purity test they deserve to die and the sooner the better.
It's tempting to view politics through the prism of the Tories' endless student union leadership psychodrama, but occasionally it's worth remembering that out there in the real world the country is falling apart and desperately needs a government that actually gives a shit about our future.
Apparently the Tory party have the numbers to tell Tezza to quit.
When Sir Graham Brady delivers the news that she must resign by the end of June, does she tell him she will revoke Article 50 the day before?
They don't, until the rules formally change May stays until December when she can be challenged again.
More likely May pitches her Brexit Deal again with a Customs Union in the Political Declaration and that scrapes a majority in the Commons then she goes, May will not revoke Article 50 unless the Commons votes to do so first
Potentially TMay could even stay on as PM right through an election campaign...
I'm trying to work out if there has ever been a PM who led the country through an election campaign while acknowledged potential successors slugged it out. I honestly can't think of such a case. Portland in 1808 would be the nearest equivalent, but it wouldn't be a near equivalent as he was party leader even if it was understood Perceval would be taking over in the near future.
Aznar in Spain in 2004
Spain isn't part of the UK, although it would simplify matters Gibraltarian considerably if it was!
If only Mary and Phillip II had clicked.
Reino de España y el Reino Unido de Gran Bretaña, one nation indissoluble.
I know you’re a Scot Nat, and this marriage being successful might have meant no Scottish Succession, but are you really wishing the Inquisition on the English?
Personally right now I’m for Hunt or Javid. Reasonably bright, reasonably competent, pragmatic. Gove as Chancellor, not as leader. Boris should be aiming to get back on HIGNFY. That is what he did best.
We urgently need a period of calm, well managed government. Personally Hunt looks more likely to deliver this. Boris certainly won't.
The tories won't be do any governing whether calm, well managed or otherwise if they don't win the imminent GE. Corby will absolutely fucking mangle Rat Eyes in an election campaign.
Somebody once said that the Tories will only turn to Boris when they are 2 - 0 down, with 10 minutes left to play. I suspect that many Tory MPs could now be considering whether Boris is the only person who can save the day.
No. Just no. Lazy, untruthful, a disaster in the only Cabinet job he has held. He has an appalling reputation round the world at a time when Britain needs friends and to forge new relationships. His “fuck business” comment tells business all they need to know about a country which has this clown as its PM or as leader as one of the main parties.
If the Tories insist on seeing everything through some Brexit purity test they deserve to die and the sooner the better.
It's tempting to view politics through the prism of the Tories' endless student union leadership psychodrama, but occasionally it's worth remembering that out there in the real world the country is falling apart and desperately needs a government that actually gives a shit about our future.
If you have never voted Tory I suggest your views on what is best for the Tories and how to avoid leakage to the Brexit Party carry little weight. Trump won, Bolsonaro won, Netanyahu won, Berluconi won and Salvini now leads in Italy, Modi leads in India, the liberal left may not like it but the populist right is winning elections across the world
I see Tory chairmen are now talking about 'clean brexit' as a euphemism for 'No Deal'.
They are all so desperate to wreck this country's economy it can only be ascribed to a form of collective madness.
I had lunch with a senior (City) businessman the other day.
He said he’d reluctantly come to view that we just needed to exit. While he would have preferred the deal, exiting with no deal is better than revoking. He foresaw huge damage to social and political fabric from ignoring the result of the vote.
Mr. HYUFD, for what it's worth, if Corbyn left tomorrow and got replaced by someone bland and centrist, Cooper, say, and Boris became Conservative leader, on the basis of the potential PMs I'd be far more inclined to support Cooper than Boris.
On EU matters, I'd probably not be taken by any successor to Corbyn. But I don't trust Boris either, whether in terms of honesty or competence.
Personally right now I’m for Hunt or Javid. Reasonably bright, reasonably competent, pragmatic. Gove as Chancellor, not as leader. Boris should be aiming to get back on HIGNFY. That is what he did best.
We urgently need a period of calm, well managed government. Personally Hunt looks more likely to deliver this. Boris certainly won't.
The tories won't be do any governing whether calm, well managed or otherwise if they don't win the imminent GE. Corby will absolutely fucking mangle Rat Eyes in an election campaign.
Indeed, Hunt will lead us calmly and in a well managed way to a Corbyn premiership
The idea that a No Deal departure, with all the disruption that will cause, not just in the short-term but to other countries’ willingness to enter into agreements with Britain on anything, should be the preferred option of a significant percentage of a party of government simply shows that the Tories are not fit to be in government.
The Tories - and the country - need a leader who is prepared to speak some hard truths to them about what is needed for countries to earn their way in the world. Purity tests and a refusal to compromise with anyone outside these shores are the opposite of what is needed. Sadly for them (and us) there is no-one, other than Ken Clarke, with the courage to do this.
Why do you think it would have any impact on other countries’ willingness to do a deal with the U.K.?
We’ve abided by Article 50.
The government couldn’t carry the legislature - that happens. Yes there was a bit of silliness with May voting against her own deal, but foreign politicians understand that political silliness happens sometimes.
Life goes on. There will be deals on all sorts of things from flights to medicine.
Personally right now I’m for Hunt or Javid. Reasonably bright, reasonably competent, pragmatic. Gove as Chancellor, not as leader. Boris should be aiming to get back on HIGNFY. That is what he did best.
We urgently need a period of calm, well managed government. Personally Hunt looks more likely to deliver this. Boris certainly won't.
The tories won't be do any governing whether calm, well managed or otherwise if they don't win the imminent GE. Corby will absolutely fucking mangle Rat Eyes in an election campaign.
Mr. HYUFD, for what it's worth, if Corbyn left tomorrow and got replaced by someone bland and centrist, Cooper, say, and Boris became Conservative leader, on the basis of the potential PMs I'd be far more inclined to support Cooper than Boris.
On EU matters, I'd probably not be taken by any successor to Corbyn. But I don't trust Boris either, whether in terms of honesty or competence.
Maybe but you would be balanced by some Labour Leave voters who would prefer Boris to a diehard Remainer like Cooper and by some Corbynistas who would rather stay at home or vote Green on polling day than vote for Cooper led Labour after Jezza was replaced.
Of course if Corbyn stays Labour leader you will still vote for Boris over Corbyn presumably anyway
I see Tory chairmen are now talking about 'clean brexit' as a euphemism for 'No Deal'.
They are all so desperate to wreck this country's economy it can only be ascribed to a form of collective madness.
I had lunch with a senior (City) businessman the other day.
He said he’d reluctantly come to view that we just needed to exit. While he would have preferred the deal, exiting with no deal is better than revoking. He foresaw huge damage to social and political fabric from ignoring the result of the vote.
Personally right now I’m for Hunt or Javid. Reasonably bright, reasonably competent, pragmatic. Gove as Chancellor, not as leader. Boris should be aiming to get back on HIGNFY. That is what he did best.
We urgently need a period of calm, well managed government.
I see Tory chairmen are now talking about 'clean brexit' as a euphemism for 'No Deal'.
They are all so desperate to wreck this country's economy it can only be ascribed to a form of collective madness.
I had lunch with a senior (City) businessman the other day.
He said he’d reluctantly come to view that we just needed to exit. While he would have preferred the deal, exiting with no deal is better than revoking. He foresaw huge damage to social and political fabric from ignoring the result of the vote.
Damage either way now. Thanks guys.
Parliament have been idiots
I don’t think you can blame the population - they were presented with economic damage or continued (as they saw it) social damage.
You may not agree with it but the choice was a valid one.
Mr. Jonathan, whilst none of the options are without downsides, the time to avert them was when MPs, so keen to have their say on Article 50, were nodding dogs to every treaty giving away more power to the EU, even when a referendum had been promised in each of the (then) major parties' manifestos.
Somebody once said that the Tories will only turn to Boris when they are 2 - 0 down, with 10 minutes left to play. I suspect that many Tory MPs could now be considering whether Boris is the only person who can save the day.
No. Just no. Lazy, untruthful, a disaster in the only Cabinet job he has held. He has an appalling reputation round the world at a time when Britain needs friends and to forge new relationships. His “fuck business” comment tells business all they need to know about a country which has this clown as its PM or as leader as one of the main parties.
If the Tories insist on seeing everything through some Brexit purity test they deserve to die and the sooner the better.
It's tempting to view politics through the prism of the Tories' endless student union leadership psychodrama, but occasionally it's worth remembering that out there in the real world the country is falling apart and desperately needs a government that actually gives a shit about our future.
If you have never voted Tory I suggest your views on what is best for the Tories and how to avoid leakage to the Brexit Party carry little weight. Trump won, Bolsonaro won, Netanyahu won, Berluconi won and Salvini now leads in Italy, Modi leads in India, the liberal left may not like it but the populist right is winning elections across the world
Ah, the 'how dare you talk about my side' dismissal, last refuge of many an argument, as though insight is impossible without previous backing. Always lazy. I voted Tory in 2017 for what it is worth .
Personally right now I’m for Hunt or Javid. Reasonably bright, reasonably competent, pragmatic. Gove as Chancellor, not as leader. Boris should be aiming to get back on HIGNFY. That is what he did best.
We urgently need a period of calm, well managed government. Personally Hunt looks more likely to deliver this. Boris certainly won't.
The tories won't be do any governing whether calm, well managed or otherwise if they don't win the imminent GE. Corby will absolutely fucking mangle Rat Eyes in an election campaign.
Indeed, Hunt will lead us calmly and in a well managed way to a Corbyn premiership
So? If it us 2022 that would be 12 years of Tory led government that's a good run.
Personally right now I’m for Hunt or Javid. Reasonably bright, reasonably competent, pragmatic. Gove as Chancellor, not as leader. Boris should be aiming to get back on HIGNFY. That is what he did best.
We urgently need a period of calm, well managed government. Personally Hunt looks more likely to deliver this. Boris certainly won't.
The tories won't be do any governing whether calm, well managed or otherwise if they don't win the imminent GE. Corby will absolutely fucking mangle Rat Eyes in an election campaign.
Indeed, Hunt will lead us calmly and in a well managed way to a Corbyn premiership
So? If it us 2022 that would be 12 years of Tory led government that's a good run.
Except after 5 years of a Corbyn government we may have turned into Venezuela
It does look like it will be Boris, they’re that desperate and crazy.
Given the mass defections of Tory Leave voters to the Brexit Party if the Tories are to beat Corbyn they cannot have any of the current Cabinet leading them in all likelihood, they will all be contaminated by refusing to resign not only after May's Deal but also by staying in the Cabinet after her extensions of Article 50 beyond the planned Brexit Day, only a charismatic hard Brexiteer will do, that means Boris, maybe Raab
Raab is an egotistical narcissist that resigned over the deal he negotiated and doesn’t know that Dover matters to the UK economy.
Boris is also an egotistical narcissist, who thinks he’s the reincarnation of Churchill and cultivates a bumbling persona to deflect attention from a two decade long campaign to see himself in number 10. That is all he cares about. The man who wrote two articles, one leave one remain, picking the one to get home closer to number ten.
Neither are great potential PMs.
If only they knew it they have the perfect candidate in Justine Greening. A Remainer but unlike all other Tory possibles she looks and sounds human
Greening will likely shortly defect to join CUK anyway judging by the rumours so she May not even be in the Tories much longer, Greening also has more chance of being the next CUK leader then the next Tory leader
That's good news. She'd have been wasted staying with the dysfunctional Tories. If Corbyn goes under the proverbial bus it's easy to see a scenario where the Tories are landed with Boris and Labour with McDonnell. The drip to the Tiggers will become a flood and Brexit wont be the only casualty.
Personally right now I’m for Hunt or Javid. Reasonably bright, reasonably competent, pragmatic. Gove as Chancellor, not as leader. Boris should be aiming to get back on HIGNFY. That is what he did best.
We urgently need a period of calm, well managed government. Personally Hunt looks more likely to deliver this. Boris certainly won't.
The tories won't be do any governing whether calm, well managed or otherwise if they don't win the imminent GE. Corby will absolutely fucking mangle Rat Eyes in an election campaign.
Indeed, Hunt will lead us calmly and in a well managed way to a Corbyn premiership
Meanwhile Jeremy strings Theresa's gullible clique along with negotiations. Softly, softly catchee monkey.
Even May knows the negotiations are for show ie to drag Corbyn into the gutter with her, as she made clear to the House she will be putting forward further indicative votes if the talks do not produce a clear agreement to the Commons and May did not even rule out using preferential voting if needed
No. Just no. Lazy, untruthful, a disaster in the only Cabinet job he has held. He has an appalling reputation round the world at a time when Britain needs friends and to forge new relationships. His “fuck business” comment tells business all they need to know about a country which has this clown as its PM or as leader as one of the main parties.
If the Tories insist on seeing everything through some Brexit purity test they deserve to die and the sooner the better.
It's tempting to view politics through the prism of the Tories' endless student union leadership psychodrama, but occasionally it's worth remembering that out there in the real world the country is falling apart and desperately needs a government that actually gives a shit about our future.
Well said.
When did you last vote Tory Cyclefree?
If you have never voted Tory I suggest your views on what is best for the Tories and how to avoid leakage to the Brexit Party carry little weight. Trump won, Bolsonaro won, Netanyahu won, Berluconi won and Salvini now leads in Italy, Modi leads in India, the liberal left may not like it but the populist right is winning elections across the world
I have voted for all 3 main parties in my time, as well as Green in local elections. The fact that you blithely disregard the possibility of getting votes from people like me - or my husband, who has voted Tory, was just about in favour of Leaving but has now changed his mind, who lives in a marginal constituency with a Tory MP and who wouldn’t now touch the Tories with a bargepole (and I too will shortly be living in that constituency) - tells us all we need to know about a Tory party which couldn’t give a shit about this country, its future and the future of our children.
That the illiberal right is winning in some places is not a cause for celebration but for despair. There was a time when the Tories were in favour of liberal democracy and against lying bullies. Not any more it seems. You should, frankly, be ashamed of putting forward people like Bolsonaro and Berlusconi and Trump as people to be emulated.
Clarke knows more about trade and the economy than any of the pygmies currently vying for the Tory party leadership. He was also a notably competent and successful Chancellor.
A No Deal exit just means chaos and then being forced to sign something broadly similar later. It will also lessen our chances of getting good deals with other countries.
Farage’s Brexit party is peddling a dangerous fantasy. Grown up politicians confront fantasies not feed them. Your reaction simply confirms my belief that the Tories have stopped being a grown up party.
Potentially TMay could even stay on as PM right through an election campaign...
I'm trying to work out if there has ever been a PM who led the country through an election campaign while acknowledged potential successors slugged it out. I honestly can't think of such a case. Portland in 1808 would be the nearest equivalent, but it wouldn't be a near equivalent as he was party leader even if it was understood Perceval would be taking over in the near future.
Aznar in Spain in 2004
Spain isn't part of the UK, although it would simplify matters Gibraltarian considerably if it was!
If only Mary and Phillip II had clicked.
Reino de España y el Reino Unido de Gran Bretaña, one nation indissoluble.
I know you’re a Scot Nat, and this marriage being successful might have meant no Scottish Succession, but are you really wishing the Inquisition on the English?
Well, it might have acclimatised you to the awful, cruel repression of the EUSSR.
Somebody once said that the Tories will only turn to Boris when they are 2 - 0 down, with 10 minutes left to play. I suspect that many Tory MPs could now be considering whether Boris is the only person who can save the day.
No. Just no. Lazy, untruthful, a disaster in the only Cabinet job he has held. He has an appalling reputation round the world at a time when Britain needs friends and to forge new relationships. His “fuck business” comment tells business all they need to know about a country which has this clown as its PM or as leader as one of the main parties.
If the Tories insist on seeing everything through some Brexit purity test they deserve to die and the sooner the better.
It's tempting to view politics through the prism of the Tories' endless student union leadership psychodrama, but occasionally it's worth remembering that out there in the real world the country is falling apart and desperately needs a government that actually gives a shit about our future.
If you have never voted Tory I suggest your views on what is best for the Tories and how to avoid leakage to the Brexit Party carry little weight. Trump won, Bolsonaro won, Netanyahu won, Berluconi won and Salvini now leads in Italy, Modi leads in India, the liberal left may not like it but the populist right is winning elections across the world
Ah, the 'how dare you talk about my side' dismissal, last refuge of many an argument, as though insight is impossible without previous backing. Always lazy. I voted Tory in 2017 for what it is worth .
No, based on fact. As Yougov shows 20% of 2017 Tories have since defected to the Brexit Party just 2% to Labour so left liberals decrying the Tories as unelectable as they are not anti Brexit enough despite the fact they would never vote Tory in a million years anyway is advice the Tories do not need
Personally right now I’m for Hunt or Javid. Reasonably bright, reasonably competent, pragmatic. Gove as Chancellor, not as leader. Boris should be aiming to get back on HIGNFY. That is what he did best.
We urgently need a period of calm, well managed government. Personally Hunt looks more likely to deliver this. Boris certainly won't.
The tories won't be do any governing whether calm, well managed or otherwise if they don't win the imminent GE. Corby will absolutely fucking mangle Rat Eyes in an election campaign.
Indeed, Hunt will lead us calmly and in a well managed way to a Corbyn premiership
Personally right now I’m for Hunt or Javid. Reasonably bright, reasonably competent, pragmatic. Gove as Chancellor, not as leader. Boris should be aiming to get back on HIGNFY. That is what he did best.
We urgently need a period of calm, well managed government. Personally Hunt looks more likely to deliver this. Boris certainly won't.
The tories won't be do any governing whether calm, well managed or otherwise if they don't win the imminent GE. Corby will absolutely fucking mangle Rat Eyes in an election campaign.
Indeed, Hunt will lead us calmly and in a well managed way to a Corbyn premiership
So? If it us 2022 that would be 12 years of Tory led government that's a good run.
Except after 5 years of a Corbyn government we may have turned into Venezuela
It does look like it will be Boris, they’re that desperate and crazy.
Given the mass defections of Tory Leave voters to the Brexit Party if the Tories are to beat Corbyn they cannot have any of the current Cabinet leading them in all likelihood, they will all be contaminated by refusing to resign not only after May's Deal but also by staying in the Cabinet after her extensions of Article 50 beyond the planned Brexit Day, only a charismatic hard Brexiteer will do, that means Boris, maybe Raab
Raab is an egotistical narcissist that resigned over the deal he negotiated and doesn’t know that Dover matters to the UK economy.
Boris is also an egotistical narcissist, who thinks he’s the reincarnation of Churchill and cultivates a bumbling persona to deflect attention from a two decade long campaign to see himself in number 10. That is all he cares about. The man who wrote two articles, one leave one remain, picking the one to get home closer to number ten.
Neither are great potential PMs.
If only they knew it they have the perfect candidate in Justine Greening. A Remainer but unlike all other Tory possibles she looks and sounds human
Greening will likely shortly defect to join CUK anyway judging by the rumours so she May not even be in the Tories much longer, Greening also has more chance of being the next CUK leader then the next Tory leader
That's good news. She'd have been wasted staying with the dysfunctional Tories. If Corbyn goes under the proverbial bus it's easy to see a scenario where the Tories are landed with Boris and Labour with McDonnell. The drip to the Tiggers will become a flood and Brexit wont be the only casualty.
In theory, as the polling shows little sign of a CUK surge at present
The membership will not vote for any candidate who prefers revoke and Remain to No Deal that is clear and at the end of the day 160 Tory MPs have already voted for No Deal in the indicative votes, even though less than the 284 who voted for May's Deal in the last vote that is still enough to get a hard Brexiteer in the final 2
You miss the other half of what I said. Becoming Prime Minister is not just about becoming Conservative party leader.
It is dependent on the DUP too at the moment and they are clear they prefer ave also said they prefer to May's Deal and the backstop
It is dependent on more than the DUP. Two questions for you:
1) what is the Government’s current majority?
2) how many Conservative MPs do you think would defect if Boris Johnson became leader?
1) Excluding Sinn Fein and with the 3 Tory MPs lost to TIG/CUK but adding in the DUP 8, exciting the DUP 0.
2) Grieve, maybe Lee and Greening that is about it. In any case given in my view only Boris can beat Corbyn that would be a small price to pay
Your counting is atrocious on both fronts. The Conservatives currently have 313 MPs (excluding the Speaker). The DUP have 10. That’s 323.
Against them there are 246 Labour MPs, 35 SNP MPs, 11 Lib Dems, 10 CUK, 4 Plaid Cymru, 1 Green and 12 other independents. That’s 319. Leaving the Speaker out of account, that’s a majority of 4.
As for your tally of deserting MPs, for starters, Ken Clarke is on the record as saying he would move to CUK if a hard Leaver is elected. The total would be closer to 30 than to 3 in my opinion. There is a substantial body of MPs who have reluctantly backed the deal. They will not countenance no deal and will not facilitate it.
The Tories won 318 MPs since the general election since when 3 defected to TIG, Allen, Wollaston and Soubry making 315. Boles now sits as an Independent Conservative and would still support May maybe even Boris over Corbyn, as does Grieve who would also support May over Corbyn.
Add together the DUP and the Tories you still get a clear majority, minus the DUP then you do not. However Corbyn would not get a majority for a general election let alone to become PM without DUP support.
Whether even 30 Tory MPs moved to CUK is irrelevant as they would still have to VONC the government for it it fall or put Corbyn in as PM
Well they would if it led to no deal Brexit. Of course they would.
Javid is very unpopular in Westminster, amongst politicians and civil servants alike. He has a reputation for saying anything and changing a position to advance himself. In fact, the biggest fan of Javid is Javid.
Michael Gove, surprisingly, is liked by the civil service. I guess it's his intelligence but also enquiring mind and the fact that, unlike most of the Brexiteers, he's not bone idle. I don't think he's going to be liked by the general public but his performance when tearing into Corbyn was brilliant, whatever you think of him. Of all the established politicians he's the one I'd have money on.
The rest are pretty hopeless. Raab, as Mike once said, lacks gravitas and he's another who changes his position to garner support. The rumours doing the rounds may or may not have some truth behind them but I tend to think it may be a case of smoke and fire. Davis is a lazy oaf. Patel's a right wing nut job. Hunt is apparently on the autistic spectrum but has done really well of late, if you like that kind of thing. I suspect the country won't.
That last sentence reveals the problem. The Conservative party, especially the membership, are quite capable of selecting someone completely unsuitable.
Which brings us to Boris. For how much longer does this man even deserve to be considered? He's bone idle (yes, another), hopelessly lazy on detail, a serial philanderer, a gadfly, a man who changes his position with the wind, one of the worst foreign secretaries in history, a joke to the outside world and lacking in judgement. As Michael Gove realised, Boris is totally unsuitable and unfit to lead our country.
So I think it 'should' be:
Current tier: Michael Gove
Hidden tier: James Cleverley or Johnny Mercer.
( NOT Matt Hancock. He think he's fabulous, but I don't think the public will.)
Having said all of this, I can't see Theresa May going anywhere anytime soon. I doubt the ERG piss & winders will get anywhere with changing the rules. If you summarise where they are at, their key concerns are focused on:
- Changing the Speaker - Changing the rules for electing a Conservative Leader - Pretending that we have left the EU already because something in some text faces some legal challenge by some sad old man
No. Just no. Lazy, untruthful, a disaster in the only Cabinet job he has held. He has an appalling reputation round the world at a time when Britain needs friends and to forge new relationships. His “fuck business” comment tells business all they need to know about a country which has this clown as its PM or as leader as one of the main parties.
If the Tories insist on seeing everything through some Brexit purity test they deserve to die and the sooner the better.
It's tempting to view politics through the prism of the Tories' endless student union leadership psychodrama, but occasionally it's worth remembering that out there in the real world the country is falling apart and desperately needs a government that actually gives a shit about our future.
Well said.
When did you last vote Tory Cyclefree?
If you have never voted Tory I suggest your views on what is best for the rld
I have voted for all 3 main parties in my time, as well as Green in local elections. The fact that you blithely disregard the possibility of getting votes from people like me - or my husband, who has voted Tory, was just about in favour of Leaving but has now changed his mind, who lives in a marginal constituency with a Tory MP and who wouldn’t now touch the Tories with a bargepole (and I too will shortly be living in that constituency) - tells us all we need to know about a Tory party which couldn’t give a shit about this country, its future and the future of our children.
That the illiberal right is winning in some places is not a cause for celebration but for despair. There was a time when the Tories were in favour of liberal democracy and against lying bullies. Not any more it seems. You should, frankly, be ashamed of putting forward people like Bolsonaro and Berlusconi and Trump as people to be emulated.
Clarke knows more about trade and the economy than any of the pygmies currently vying for the Tory party leadership. He was also a notably competent and successful Chancellor.
A No Deal exit just means chaos and then being forced to sign something broadly similar later. It will also lessen our chances of getting good deals with other countries.
Farage’s Brexit party is peddling a dangerous fantasy. Grown up politicians confront fantasies not feed them. Your reaction simply confirms my belief that the Tories have stopped being a grown up party.
If you really are so anti hard Brexit I suggest you would be better off voting for CUK anyway (and I am not a No Dealer, I still prefer Brexit with a Deal)
The idea that a No Deal departure, with all the disruption that will cause, not just in the short-term but to other countries’ willingness to enter into agreements with Britain on anything, should be the preferred option of a significant percentage of a party of government simply shows that the Tories are not fit to be in government.
The Tories - and the country - need a leader who is prepared to speak some hard truths to them about what is needed for countries to earn their way in the world. Purity tests and a refusal to compromise with anyone outside these shores are the opposite of what is needed. Sadly for them (and us) there is no-one, other than Ken Clarke, with the courage to do this.
Why do you think it would have any impact on other countries’ willingness to do a deal with the U.K.?
We’ve abided by Article 50.
The government couldn’t carry the legislature - that happens. Yes there was a bit of silliness with May voting against her own deal, but foreign politicians understand that political silliness happens sometimes.
Life goes on. There will be deals on all sorts of things from flights to medicine.
Why would any country invest the time and effort into negotiating an FTA with Britain when it can have no confidence that such an agreement would get past Parliament? It’s not simply a bit of silliness. It goes to the heart of whether Britain is seen as a sensible, pragmatic, reliable, honourable country to do business with.
How could it trust Britain to honour its legal obligations when the no-dealers don’t want us to pay a penny of the money we legally owe the EU?
What sort of a country talks like this, for God’s sake. It may be the Little Britain of Nigel Farage’s dreams. It is not the Britain I want to see or thought I lived in.
Personally right now I’m for Hunt or Javid. Reasonably bright, reasonably competent, pragmatic. Gove as Chancellor, not as leader. Boris should be aiming to get back on HIGNFY. That is what he did best.
We urgently need a period of calm, well managed government. Personally Hunt looks more likely to deliver this. Boris certainly won't.
The tories won't be do any governing whether calm, well managed or otherwise if they don't win the imminent GE. Corby will absolutely fucking mangle Rat Eyes in an election campaign.
Indeed, Hunt will lead us calmly and in a well managed way to a Corbyn premiership
So? If it us 2022 that would be 12 years of Tory led government that's a good run.
Except after 5 years of a Corbyn government we may have turned into Venezuela
Personally right now I’m for Hunt or Javid. Reasonably bright, reasonably competent, pragmatic. Gove as Chancellor, not as leader. Boris should be aiming to get back on HIGNFY. That is what he did best.
We urgently need a period of calm, well managed government. Personally Hunt looks more likely to deliver this. Boris certainly won't.
The tories won't be do any governing whether calm, well managed or otherwise if they don't win the imminent GE. Corby will absolutely fucking mangle Rat Eyes in an election campaign.
Indeed, Hunt will lead us calmly and in a well managed way to a Corbyn premiership
So? If it us 2022 that would be 12 years of Tory led government that's a good run.
Except after 5 years of a Corbyn government we may have turned into Venezuela
What amazes me is the lack of genuine panic in conservatism over the very real prospect of a Corbyn government. Never mind Brexit, Britain won't exist after Corbyn gets his hands on it. The likes of IDS and Boris will not even hold their seats at the next election if the Tory shambles continues. Unless they get their shit together very quickly the Tories are handing the keys to Downing Street to cultural Marxists who will eradicate every remnant of the England that right wingers hold dear.
The membership will not vote for any candidate who prefers revoke and Remain to No Deal that is clear and at the end of the day 160 Tory MPs have already voted for No Deal in the indicative votes, even though less than the 284 who voted for May's Deal in the last vote that is still enough to get a hard Brexiteer in the final 2
You miss the other half of what I said. Becoming Prime Minister is not just about becoming Conservative party leader.
It is dependent on the DUP too at the moment and they are clear they prefer ave also said they prefer to May's Deal and the backstop
It is dependent on more than the DUP. Two questions for you:
1) what is the Government’s current majority?
2) how many Conservative MPs do you think would defect if Boris Johnson became leader?
1) Excluding Sinnce to pay
Your counting is atrocious on both fronts. The Conservatives currently have 313 MPs (excluding the Speaker). The DUP have 10. That’s 323.
Against them there are 246 Labour MPs, 35 SNP MPs, 11 Lib Dems, 10 CUK, 4 Plaid Cymru, 1 Green and 12 other independents. That’s 319. Leaving the Speaker out of account, that’s a majority of 4.
As for your tally of deserting MPs, for starters, Ken Clarke is on the record as saying he would move to CUK if a hard Leaver is elected. The total would be closer to 30 than to 3 in my opinion. There is a substantial body of MPs who have reluctantly backed the deal. They will not countenance no deal and will not facilitate it.
The Tories won 318 MPs since the general election since when 3 defected to TIG, Allen, Wollaston and Soubry making 315. Boles now sits as an Independent Conservative and would still support May maybe even Boris over Corbyn, as does Grieve who would also support May over Corbyn.
Add together the DUP and the Tories you still get a clear majority, minus the DUP then you do not. However Corbyn would not get a majority for a general election let alone to become PM without DUP support.
Whether even 30 Tory MPs moved to CUK is irrelevant as they would still have to VONC the government for it it fall or put Corbyn in as PM
Well they would if it led to no deal Brexit. Of course they would.
Given we are in the EU still until October anyway and Cooper Letwin requires the PM by law to seek an extension of Article 50 over No Deal anyway we likely only get No Deal with a general election and a victory for a hard Brexit Tory leader or Farage and the Brexit Party anyway
It does look like it will be Boris, they’re that desperate and crazy.
Given the mass defections of Tory Leave voters to the Brexit Party if the Tories are to beat Corbyn they cannot have any of the current Cabinet leading them in all likelihood, they will all be contaminated by refusing to resign not only after May's Deal but also by staying in the Cabinet after her extensions of Article 50 beyond the planned Brexit Day, only a charismatic hard Brexiteer will do, that means Boris, maybe Raab
Raab is an egotistical narcissist that resigned over the deal he negotiated and doesn’t know that Dover matters to the UK economy.
Boris is also an egotistical narcissist, who thinks he’s the reincarnation of Churchill and cultivates a bumbling persona to deflect attention from a two decade long campaign to see himself in number 10. That is all he cares about. The man who wrote two articles, one leave one remain, picking the one to get home closer to number ten.
Neither are great potential PMs.
If only they knew it they have the perfect candidate in Justine Greening. A Remainer but unlike all other Tory possibles she looks and sounds human
Greening will likely shortly defect to join CUK anyway judging by the rumours so she May not even be in the Tories much longer, Greening also has more chance of being the next CUK leader then the next Tory leader
That's good news. She'd have been wasted staying with the dysfunctional Tories. If Corbyn goes under the proverbial bus it's easy to see a scenario where the Tories are landed with Boris and Labour with McDonnell. The drip to the Tiggers will become a flood and Brexit wont be the only casualty.
In theory, as the polling shows little sign of a CUK surge at present
Wouldn't you anticipate a serious number of defections if Boris becomes leader?
Javid is very unpopular in Westminster, amongst politicians and civil servants alike. He has a reputation for saying anything and changing a position to advance himself. In fact, the biggest fan of Javid is Javid.
Michael Gove, surprisingly, is liked by the civil service. I guess it's his intelligence but also enquiring mind and the fact that, unlike most of the Brexiteers, he's not bone idle. I don't think he's going to be liked by the general public but his performance when tearing into Corbyn was brilliant, whatever you think of him. Of all the established politicians he's the one I'd have money on.
The rest are pretty hopeless. Raab, as Mike once said, lacks gravitas and he's another who changes his position to garner support. The rumours doing the rounds may or may not have some truth behind them but I tend to think it may be a case of smoke and fire. Davis is a lazy oaf. Patel's a right wing nut job. Hunt is apparently on the autistic spectrum but has done really well of late, if you like that kind of thing. I suspect the country won't.
That last sentence reveals the problem. The Conservative party, especially the membership, are quite capable of selecting someone completely unsuitable.
Which brings us to Boris. For how much longer does this man even deserve to be considered? He's bone idle (yes, another), hopelessly lazy on detail, a serial philanderer, a gadfly, a man who changes his position with the wind, one of the worst foreign secretaries in history, a joke to the outside world and lacking in judgement. As Michael Gove realised, Boris is totally unsuitable and unfit to lead our country.
So I think it 'should' be:
Current tier: Michael Gove
Hidden tier: James Cleverley or Johnny Mercer.
( NOT Matt Hancock. He think he's fabulous, but I don't think the public will.)
Having said all of this, I can't see Theresa May going anywhere anytime soon. I doubt the ERG piss & winders will get anywhere with changing the rules. If you summarise where they are at, their key concerns are focused on:
- Changing the Speaker - Changing the rules for electing a Conservative Leader - Pretending that we have left the EU already because something in some text faces some legal challenge by some sad old man
It's pathetic.
The chairmen of Tory associations have called a special EGM to discuss removing May. I can't see how she gets out of this one now. There will be a summer leadership contest.
Personally right now I’m for Hunt or Javid. Reasonably bright, reasonably competent, pragmatic. Gove as Chancellor, not as leader. Boris should be aiming to get back on HIGNFY. That is what he did best.
We urgently need a period of calm, well managed government. Personally Hunt looks more likely to deliver this. Boris certainly won't.
The tories won't be do any governing whether calm, well managed or otherwise if they don't win the imminent GE. Corby will absolutely fucking mangle Rat Eyes in an election campaign.
Indeed, Hunt will lead us calmly and in a well managed way to a Corbyn premiership
So? If it us 2022 that would be 12 years of Tory led government that's a good run.
Except after 5 years of a Corbyn government we may have turned into Venezuela
Personally right now I’m for Hunt or Javid. Reasonably bright, reasonably competent, pragmatic. Gove as Chancellor, not as leader. Boris should be aiming to get back on HIGNFY. That is what he did best.
We urgently need a period of calm, well managed government. Personally Hunt looks more likely to deliver this. Boris certainly won't.
The tories won't be do any governing whether calm, well managed or otherwise if they don't win the imminent GE. Corby will absolutely fucking mangle Rat Eyes in an election campaign.
Indeed, Hunt will lead us calmly and in a well managed way to a Corbyn premiership
So? If it us 2022 that would be 12 years of Tory led government that's a good run.
Except after 5 years of a Corbyn government we may have turned into Venezuela
What amazes me is the lack of genuine panic in conservatism over the very real prospect of a Corbyn government. Never mind Brexit, Britain won't exist after Corbyn gets his hands on it. The likes of IDS and Boris will not even hold their seats at the next election if the Tory shambles continues. Unless they get their shit together very quickly the Tories are handing the keys to Downing Street to cultural Marxists who will eradicate every remnant of the England that right wingers hold dear.
What can Corbyn possibly do that's worse than what we currently have?
Personally right now I’m for Hunt or Javid. Reasonably bright, reasonably competent, pragmatic. Gove as Chancellor, not as leader. Boris should be aiming to get back on HIGNFY. That is what he did best.
We urgently need a period of calm, well managed government. Personally Hunt looks more likely to deliver this. Boris certainly won't.
The tories won't be do any governing whether calm, well managed or otherwise if they don't win the imminent GE. Corby will absolutely fucking mangle Rat Eyes in an election campaign.
Indeed, Hunt will lead us calmly and in a well managed way to a Corbyn premiership
So? If it us 2022 that would be 12 years of Tory led government that's a good run.
Except after 5 years of a Corbyn government we may have turned into Venezuela
Yes, well, Tory incompetence eliminates any fear.
Ironically the reality of a Corbyn government would see a quicker Tory revival than Lazarus even if the Country faces disaster
Tory MPs will have to be very clever in how they vote to keep Bozo out of the final two. I'm not sure that they have the numbers or the competence.
If they could demonstrate that they would be able to keep Bozo away from the members ballot then maybe the ERG will promote an alternative such as Raaab or McVey.
One thing that puzzles me is how a man who 3 years ago pulled out of the leadership contest declaring that he wasn't the right person for the job now thinks he should be a shoo-in
It does look like it will be Boris, they’re that desperate and crazy.
Given the mass defections of Tory Leave voters to the Brexit Party if the Tories are to beat Corbyn they cannot have any of the current Cabinet leading them in all likelihood, they will all be contaminated by refusing to resign not only after May's Deal but also by staying in the Cabinet after her extensions of Article 50 beyond the planned Brexit Day, only a charismatic hard Brexiteer will do, that means Boris, maybe Raab
Raab is an egotistical narcissist that resigned over the deal he negotiated and doesn’t know that Dover matters to the UK economy.
Boris is also an egotistical narcissist, who thinks he’s the reincarnation of Churchill and cultivates a bumbling persona to deflect attention from a two decade long campaign to see himself in number 10. That is all he cares about. The man who wrote two articles, one leave one remain, picking the one to get home closer to number ten.
Neither are great potential PMs.
If only they knew it they have the perfect candidate in Justine Greening. A Remainer but unlike all other Tory possibles she looks and sounds human
Greening will likely shortly defect to join CUK anyway judging by the rumours so she May not even be in the Tories much longer, Greening also has more chance of being the next CUK leader then the next Tory leader
That's good news. She'd have been wasted staying with the dysfunctional Tories. If Corbyn goes under the proverbial bus it's easy to see a scenario where the Tories are landed with Boris and Labour with McDonnell. The drip to the Tiggers will become a flood and Brexit wont be the only casualty.
In theory, as the polling shows little sign of a CUK surge at present
Wouldn't you anticipate a serious number of defections if Boris becomes leader?
I am reminded of Brendan Behan, on being told that every hangover destroyed a million brain cells:
Personally right now I’m for Hunt or Javid. Reasonably bright, reasonably competent, pragmatic. Gove as Chancellor, not as leader. Boris should be aiming to get back on HIGNFY. That is what he did best.
We urgently need a period of calm, well managed government. Personally Hunt looks more likely to deliver this. Boris certainly won't.
The tories won't be do any governing whether calm, well managed or otherwise if they don't win the imminent GE. Corby will absolutely fucking mangle Rat Eyes in an election campaign.
Indeed, Hunt will lead us calmly and in a well managed way to a Corbyn premiership
So? If it us 2022 that would be 12 years of Tory led government that's a good run.
Except after 5 years of a Corbyn government we may have turned into Venezuela
Personally right now I’m for Hunt or Javid. Reasonably bright, reasonably competent, pragmatic. Gove as Chancellor, not as leader. Boris should be aiming to get back on HIGNFY. That is what he did best.
We urgently need a period of calm, well managed government. Personally Hunt looks more likely to deliver this. Boris certainly won't.
The tories won't be do any governing whether calm, well managed or otherwise if they don't win the imminent GE. Corby will absolutely fucking mangle Rat Eyes in an election campaign.
Indeed, Hunt will lead us calmly and in a well managed way to a Corbyn premiership
So? If it us 2022 that would be 12 years of Tory led government that's a good run.
Except after 5 years of a Corbyn government we may have turned into Venezuela
What amazes me is the lack of genuine panic in conservatism over the very real prospect of a Corbyn government. Never mind Brexit, Britain won't exist after Corbyn gets his hands gland that right wingers hold dear.
What can Corbyn possibly do that's worse than what we currently have?
Nationalise half the economy, overregulate, put taxes through the roof, see businesses run a mile and half the brightest and best emigrate and weaken our defences
Mr. Recidivist, hike taxes, crush commerce beneath a hundredweight of red tape, side with the Russian state over the UK state (as he did over the use of chemical weapons on British soil), axe Trident, starve the armed forces of resources (even more so than the incumbent government).
You miss the other half of what I said. Becoming Prime Minister is not just about becoming Conservative party leader.
It is dependent on the DUP too at the moment and they are clear they prefer ave also said they prefer to May's Deal and the backstop
It is dependent on more than the DUP. Two questions for you:
1) what is the Government’s current majority?
2) how many Conservative MPs do you think would defect if Boris Johnson became leader?
1) Excluding Sinnce to pay
Your counting is atrocious on both fronts. The Conservatives currently have 313 MPs (excluding the Speaker). The DUP have 10. That’s 323.
Against them there are 246 Labour MPs, 35 SNP MPs, 11 Lib Dems, 10 CUK, 4 Plaid Cymru, 1 Green and 12 other independents. That’s 319. Leaving the Speaker out of account, that’s a majority of 4.
As for your tally of deserting MPs, for starters, Ken Clarke is on the record as saying he would move to CUK if a hard Leaver is elected. The total would be closer to 30 than to 3 in my opinion. There is a substantial body of MPs who have reluctantly backed the deal. They will not countenance no deal and will not facilitate it.
The Tories won 318 MPs since the general election since when 3 defected to TIG, Allen, Wollaston and Soubry making 315. Boles now sits as an Independent Conservative and would still support May maybe even Boris over Corbyn, as does Grieve who would also support May over Corbyn.
Add together the DUP and the Tories you still get a clear majority, minus the DUP then you do not. However Corbyn would not get a majority for a general election let alone to become PM without DUP support.
Whether even 30 Tory MPs moved to CUK is irrelevant as they would still have to VONC the government for it it fall or put Corbyn in as PM
Well they would if it led to no deal Brexit. Of course they would.
Given we are in the EU still until October anyway and Cooper Letwin requires the PM by law to seek an extension of Article 50 over No Deal anyway we likely only get No Deal with a general election and a victory for a hard Brexit Tory leader or Farage and the Brexit Party anyway
A no deal Prime Minister can force no deal. Those opposed to that know that and will act accordingly.
Comments
Boris hasn't done his prep because he is too lazy, is at least unwittingly racist, is a shameless liar, adulterer and bully, who will rat on longstanding friends if he sees a short term gain for himself. He is the perfect candidate for the party of Brexit. Brexit is a farce, so put the clown in charge.
75:1.
On the other hand, while he has not acknowledged his errors at Education, he has shown some signs of learning from other mistakes in recent years.
An academic discussion, anyway, as I doubt he’ll even get close.
Teachers moaned but that’s what they do and it isn’t really about them.
Because if you say 'no,' you are accepting his reforms have failed.
Edit - it is perhaps also worth remembering that as grade boundaries were adjusted to keep pass marks similar/comparable the entire rationale for the reforms was lost anyway.
We also get what you deserve, unfortunately.
1) what is the Government’s current majority?
2) how many Conservative MPs do you think would defect if Boris Johnson became leader?
Boris voted against the Deal twice, as Boris said he only voted for the Deal the third time as the likely alternative was further extension of Article 50 and possibly no Brexit at all.
On that Boris was actually proved correct.
However if Leavers want a No Deal diehard who voted against May's Deal on all 3 occasions there is always Priti Patel or Mark Francois!
There's always the possibility of negotiating support from somewhere, so if she wanted to facilitate the transition, she could resign as soon as the results come in, and recommend the new leader as her successor. At that point the negative wouldn't be proven, and if she's going you have to fill the vacancy, so it's hard to see Her Majesty rejecting her advice.
However, equally she could do it the Gordon Brown way: The new guy may not have a majority, so TMay stays on and waits while they negotiate, and only stands down if and when it looks like somebody has a majority. If that doesn't look like happening, you potentially go directly to Corbyn or a caretaker or whoever can put together a majority on paper.
Potentially TMay could even stay on as PM right through an election campaign...
The die hards still insist the deal is not Brexit while Boris does think it is. That's why i am surprised a die harder is not doing better
2) Grieve, maybe Lee and Greening that is about it. In any case given in my view only Boris can beat Corbyn that would be a small price to pay
And with that, I have A-level coursework to mark. Have a good morning.
When I was watching Die Hard with ++Justin last Christmas he told me he hated pineapple
Make Boris leader of the Labour Party. Both parties are better off that way.
Against them there are 246 Labour MPs, 35 SNP MPs, 11 Lib Dems, 10 CUK, 4 Plaid Cymru, 1 Green and 12 other independents. That’s 319. Leaving the Speaker out of account, that’s a majority of 4.
As for your tally of deserting MPs, for starters, Ken Clarke is on the record as saying he would move to CUK if a hard Leaver is elected. The total would be closer to 30 than to 3 in my opinion. There is a substantial body of MPs who have reluctantly backed the deal. They will not countenance no deal and will not facilitate it.
If the Tories insist on seeing everything through some Brexit purity test they deserve to die and the sooner the better. Well said.
Reino de España y el Reino Unido de Gran Bretaña, one nation indissoluble.
When Sir Graham Brady delivers the news that she must resign by the end of June, does she tell him she will revoke Article 50 the day before?
They are all so desperate to wreck this country's economy it can only be ascribed to a form of collective madness.
That would certainly top running through a wheat field with a stick.
The Tories - and the country - need a leader who is prepared to speak some hard truths to them about what is needed for countries to earn their way in the world. Purity tests and a refusal to compromise with anyone outside these shores are the opposite of what is needed. Sadly for them (and us) there is no-one, other than Ken Clarke, with the courage to do this.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1120225704371793921
Add together the DUP and the Tories you still get a clear majority, minus the DUP then you do not. However Corbyn would not get a majority for a general election let alone to become PM without DUP support.
Whether even 30 Tory MPs moved to CUK is irrelevant as they would still have to VONC the government for it it fall or put Corbyn in as PM
Clarke has more chance of defecting and becoming the next CUK leader then the next Tory leader
More likely May pitches her Brexit Deal again with a Customs Union in the Political Declaration and that scrapes a majority in the Commons then she goes, May will not revoke Article 50 unless the Commons votes to do so first
If you have never voted Tory I suggest your views on what is best for the Tories and how to avoid leakage to the Brexit Party carry little weight. Trump won, Bolsonaro won, Netanyahu won, Berluconi won and Salvini now leads in Italy, Modi leads in India, the liberal left may not like it but the populist right is winning elections across the world
He said he’d reluctantly come to view that we just needed to exit. While he would have preferred the deal, exiting with no deal is better than revoking. He foresaw huge damage to social and political fabric from ignoring the result of the vote.
On EU matters, I'd probably not be taken by any successor to Corbyn. But I don't trust Boris either, whether in terms of honesty or competence.
We’ve abided by Article 50.
The government couldn’t carry the legislature - that happens. Yes there was a bit of silliness with May voting against her own deal, but foreign politicians understand that political silliness happens sometimes.
Life goes on. There will be deals on all sorts of things from flights to medicine.
Of course if Corbyn stays Labour leader you will still vote for Boris over Corbyn presumably anyway
Softly, softly catchee monkey.
I don’t think you can blame the population - they were presented with economic damage or continued (as they saw it) social damage.
You may not agree with it but the choice was a valid one.
MPs on the other hand...
That the illiberal right is winning in some places is not a cause for celebration but for despair. There was a time when the Tories were in favour of liberal democracy and against lying bullies. Not any more it seems. You should, frankly, be ashamed of putting forward people like Bolsonaro and Berlusconi and Trump as people to be emulated.
Clarke knows more about trade and the economy than any of the pygmies currently vying for the Tory party leadership. He was also a notably competent and successful Chancellor.
A No Deal exit just means chaos and then being forced to sign something broadly similar later. It will also lessen our chances of getting good deals with other countries.
Farage’s Brexit party is peddling a dangerous fantasy. Grown up politicians confront fantasies not feed them. Your reaction simply confirms my belief that the Tories have stopped being a grown up party.
Michael Gove, surprisingly, is liked by the civil service. I guess it's his intelligence but also enquiring mind and the fact that, unlike most of the Brexiteers, he's not bone idle. I don't think he's going to be liked by the general public but his performance when tearing into Corbyn was brilliant, whatever you think of him. Of all the established politicians he's the one I'd have money on.
The rest are pretty hopeless. Raab, as Mike once said, lacks gravitas and he's another who changes his position to garner support. The rumours doing the rounds may or may not have some truth behind them but I tend to think it may be a case of smoke and fire. Davis is a lazy oaf. Patel's a right wing nut job. Hunt is apparently on the autistic spectrum but has done really well of late, if you like that kind of thing. I suspect the country won't.
That last sentence reveals the problem. The Conservative party, especially the membership, are quite capable of selecting someone completely unsuitable.
Which brings us to Boris. For how much longer does this man even deserve to be considered? He's bone idle (yes, another), hopelessly lazy on detail, a serial philanderer, a gadfly, a man who changes his position with the wind, one of the worst foreign secretaries in history, a joke to the outside world and lacking in judgement. As Michael Gove realised, Boris is totally unsuitable and unfit to lead our country.
So I think it 'should' be:
Current tier: Michael Gove
Hidden tier: James Cleverley or Johnny Mercer.
( NOT Matt Hancock. He think he's fabulous, but I don't think the public will.)
Having said all of this, I can't see Theresa May going anywhere anytime soon. I doubt the ERG piss & winders will get anywhere with changing the rules. If you summarise where they are at, their key concerns are focused on:
- Changing the Speaker
- Changing the rules for electing a Conservative Leader
- Pretending that we have left the EU already because something in some text faces some legal challenge by some sad old man
It's pathetic.
How could it trust Britain to honour its legal obligations when the no-dealers don’t want us to pay a penny of the money we legally owe the EU?
What sort of a country talks like this, for God’s sake. It may be the Little Britain of Nigel Farage’s dreams. It is not the Britain I want to see or thought I lived in.
All of the rollover trade deals Fox was boasting about, didn't get done.
The rescue by the German car makers, didn't get done.
All of the Brexiteer wishful thinking, didn't get done...
If they could demonstrate that they would be able to keep Bozo away from the members ballot then maybe the ERG will promote an alternative such as Raaab or McVey.
One thing that puzzles me is how a man who 3 years ago pulled out of the leadership contest declaring that he wasn't the right person for the job now thinks he should be a shoo-in
"But only the weak ones....."
Corbyn would be a catastrophically bad PM.