I question the consensus that if Boris Johnson makes the final two he will win. I doubt he would.
Think about it. If the contest is this summer, which is likely, the membership will be conscious that they are choosing not just their next party leader but an individual to assume the mantle of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. That is a massive responsibility for those doing the choosing and they are going to feel it. It will weigh heavily.
These are not ordinary feckless members of the public, remember, they are fully paid up members of the Conservative Party. They have a higher than average sense of propriety and civic duty. That is one of the reasons they joined in the first place. They are also a lot older than most people, meaning that although teeth may be in short supply, wisdom is not.
So bearing all of this in mind, how likely is it, despite what we are told by ‘polls’, that when push comes to shove this august body of electors will foist a man as unfit for office as Boris Johnson on a horrified nation?
Not very. He’s a lay.
Most Tory members want Brexit above all and they will not trust a Remainer again like May to deliver it, only a Leaver like Boris
It will be up to the MPs. Whatever Leaver they put through to the membership will win. Who is the most comfortable in their skin who performs well on TV?
Boris
Not a details man and too much past history. He's only a leaver because it is politically expedient.
Yet Tory members appear to prefer someone who became a Leaver five minutes before the referendum for reasons of ambition and self-interest to others who became Leavers five minutes after for reasons of principle and democracy.
He only beats Farage by 4% in the poll of councillors, so some want the real thing
Exactly, the super rich can move abroad to escape Corbyn, it will be the middle class who will face the brunt of the Corbyn tax hikes, as Francois Hollande discovered in France trying to implement socialism in practice does not a happy electorate make while half the highest earners in Paris ended up in London when Hollande and the Socialists were in charge. (Given the more free market Macron has now replaced Hollande we could even see the reverse and rich Londoners moving to Paris if Corbyn and Labour get in)
The way the Tories are behaving is making the prospect of a Corbyn government ever more likely. You think, complacently, that fear of Corbyn will help the Tories at the next be “fuck off” right back.
No, I explained the reality of a Corbyn government will help the Tories in opposition if Corbyn wins the next general election. To beat Corbyn at the next general election the Tories have to regain the 24% of 2017 Tory voters who now say they would back the Brexit Party or UKIP, given only 7% of 2017 Tories now say they would vote Labour, CUK or LD it is clear which voters the Tories must target and sadly for you it is not you
It's not sad for me. But for your party. You've lost two voters in a marginal seat with a Tory MP, one of whom used regularly to vote Tory. You also won't get any votes from our three children.
Now you may well gain others.
But you should consider whether it is possible that you will not gain such votes - or not enough of them - and will lose more voters repelled by the Tories turning into a party which thinks that people like Bolsonaro, Trump and Salvini are those it should emulate.
He is interested in purity rather than reaching out - he tried to persuade TSE he was a LibDem not a Conservative for goodness sakes
Says the man who clearly cannot be bothered to read the latest Yougov poll showing 20% of 2017 Tories voting Brexit Party or UKIP at the next general election and 48% of 2017 Tories voting Brexit Party or UKIP at the next European elections. Unless those Tory Leavers are brought back the Tories will certainly lose the next general election.
I also voted Remain at the Referendum unlike you but beating Corbyn must be the priority
You’re right: I don’t pore over the entrails of polls.
One would generally expect the value of shares in a market experiencing capital flight to fall, in the absence of hyperinflation, would one not?
1. Other things being equal, which they never are. 2. I am guessing that you are looking at the largely international Ftse 100 3. and considering its performance in sterling rather than, say, $ or euro terms; and 4. I dunno, I am not an economist. But I believe what citywire have to say. 40% underweight sounds like capital flight to me.
Or the 250, up by a third in the two years following the referendum, albeit struggled a bit in the last 12 months. Or the AIM UK50 which doubled in that time, then fell back by a tbird, and is now rising again.
Excellent. Not clear why you prefer unreliable proxies for data when you have the actual data, though.
Because a behavioural/attitudinal survey of global fund managers (to be clear, that's people who manage "global funds", rather than "fund managers from around the world") who are a small and underperforming group of managers over the last decade isn't a more reliable indicator than the indices, which are an actual aggregate measure of "at the previous price, did the funds willing buyers wanted to put into the UK outnumber the funds sellers wished to withdraw from the UK".
If you’d read the thread I didn’t name my source originally
I had a rather rude response from ManchesterKurt. So I sourced the comment. Not gratuitous.
Andy was a client at the time (or at least Boots was) and I haven’t seen him since he quit to run GalaCoral in 2011.
...You should take a leaf from RCS's book; he does it [namedropping] sparingly and with style. . ...
I was in a pub quiz with David Speigelhalter once. I once spoke to the head of the American Statistical Association and the head of Eurostat in a conference dinner.
Pause.
Look, it counts as namedropping in my world, OK?...
Do statisticians count?
Accountants count but cannot subtract[1]. Actuaries count until they die. Group theory mathematicians count in rings, in fields and in groups. Quantum physicists may or may not count, so I'll have to look to find out. Based on previous experience, frequentist statisticians probably count. Bayesian statisticians probably count, but I'll update you as news comes in.
[1] double -entry bookkeeping means that accountants never have to subtract. Hence the joke.
The way the Tories are behaving is making the prospect of a Corbyn government ever more likely. You think, complacently, that fear of Corbyn will help the be “fuck off” right back.
No, I explained the reality of a Corbyn government will help the Tories in opposition if Corbyn wins the next general election. To beat Corbyn at the next general election the Tories have
It's not sad for me. But for your party. You've lost two voters in a marginal seat with a Tory MP, one of whom used regularly to vote Tory. You also won't get any votes from our three children.
Now you may well gain others.
But you should consider whether it is possible that you will not gain such votes - or not enough of them - and will lose more voters repelled by the Tories turning into a party which thinks that people like Bolsonaro, Trump and Salvini are those it should emulate.
Sad to say again but Bolsonaro and Trump won and Salvini leads current Italian polls, if the Tories reject Leavers who back a hard Brexit for liberals like you and your family they will end up like the Progressive Conservatives in Canada in 1993, down to less than 10 seats and overtaken as the main party of the right by the Brexit Party as the Progressive Conservatives were overtaken as the main party of the right by the Reform Party. The Progressive Conservatives never got into power alone again, only after merging with Reform's successor the Alliance in 2003 did the Progressive Conservatives get back into power in 2006 as the Conservative Party of Canada under Harper
Turn your back on the voters of the future and see where that gets you. There are some in your party who get this. Not you. It's not sad for me. But for the party you support.
You are making yourself irrelevant. What is very much worse you are prepared to abandon your values by emulating people who explicitly reject liberal values, who embrace illiberalism, intolerance and bigotry.
That is very sad. For your party.
The majority of Tory voters voted Leave, if the party rejects them it will not have a future. It is as simple as that. The future will be the Brexit Party not the Tory Party at least for a generation or more
R.I.P the Tories then. All the Brexit party will do is enable a Corbyn government. What an achievement.
The way the Tories are behaving is making the prospect of a Corbyn government ever more likely. You think, complacently, that fear of Corbyn will help the be “fuck off” right back.
No, I explained the reality of a Corbyn government will help the Tories in opposition if Corbyn wins the next general election. To beat Corbyn at the next general election the Tories have
It's not sad for me. But for your party. You've lost two voters in a marginal seat with a Tory MP, one of whom used regularly to vote Tory. You also won't get any votes from our three children.
Now you may well gain others.
But you should consider whether it is possible that you will not gain such votes - or not enough of them - and will lose more voters repelled by the Tories turning into a party which thinks that people like Bolsonaro, Trump and Salvini are those it should emulate.
Sad to say again but Bolsonaro and Trump won and Salvini leads current Italian polls, if the Tories reject Leavers who back a hard Brexit for liberals like you and your family they will end up like the Progressive Conservatives in Canada in 1993, down to less nservative Party of Canada under Harper
Turn your back on the voters of the future and see where that gets you. There are some in your party who get this. Not you. It's not sad for me. But for the party you support.
You are making yourself irrelevant. What is very much worse you are prepared to abandon your values by emulating people who explicitly reject liberal values, who embrace illiberalism, intolerance and bigotry.
That is very sad. For your party.
The majority of Tory voters voted Leave, if the party rejects them it will not have a future. It is as simple as that. The future will be the Brexit Party not the Tory Party at least for a generation or more
R.I.P the Tories then. All the Brexit party will do is enable a Corbyn government. What an achievement.
It would actually be voters like you trying to dish the Tories' core vote which would enable a Corbyn government, you are better off in CUK for the foreseeble future anyway
Exactly, the super rich can move abroad to escape Corbyn, it will be the middle class who will face the brunt of the Corbyn tax hikes, as Francois Hollande discovered in France trying to implement socialism in practice does not a happy electorate make while half the highest earners in Paris ended up in London when Hollande and the Socialists were in charge. (Given the more free market Macron has now replaced Hollande we could even see the reverse and rich Londoners moving to Paris if Corbyn and Labour get in)
The way the Tories are behaving is making the prospect of a Corbyn government ever more likely. You think, complacently, that fear of Corbyn will help the Tories at the next be “fuck off” right back.
No, I explained the reality of a Corbyn government will help the Tories in opposition if Corbyn wins the next general election. To beat Corbyn at the next general election the Tories have to regain the 24% of 2017 Tory voters who now say they would back the Brexit Party or UKIP, given only 7% of 2017 Tories now say they would vote Labour, CUK or LD it is clear which voters the Tories must target and sadly for you it is not you
It's not sad for me. But for your party. You've lost two voters in a marginal seat with a Tory MP, one of whom used regularly to vote Tory. You also won't get any votes from our three children.
Now you may well gain others.
But you should consider whether it is possible that you will not gain such votes - or not enough of them - and will lose more voters repelled by the Tories turning into a party which thinks that people like Bolsonaro, Trump and Salvini are those it should emulate.
He is interested in purity rather than reaching out - he tried to persuade TSE he was a LibDem not a Conservative for goodness sakes
Says the man who clearly cannot be bothered to read the latest Yougov poll showing 20% of 2017 Tories voting Brexit Party or UKIP at the next general election and 48% of 2017 Tories voting Brexit Party or UKIP at the next European elections. Unless those Tory Leavers are brought back the Tories will certainly lose the next general election.
I also voted Remain at the Referendum unlike you but beating Corbyn must be the priority
You’re right: I don’t pore over the entrails of polls.
No, I explained the reality of a Corbyn government will help the Tories in opposition if Corbyn wins the next general election. To beat Corbyn at the next general election the Tories have
It's not sad for me. But for your party. You've lost two voters in a marginal seat with a Tory MP, one of whom used regularly to vote Tory. You also won't get any votes from our three children.
Now you may well gain others.
But you should consider whether it is possible that you will not gain such votes - or not enough of them - and will lose more voters repelled by the Tories turning into a party which thinks that people like Bolsonaro, Trump and Salvini are those it should emulate.
Sad to say again but Bolsonaro and Trump won and Salvini leads current Italian polls, if the Tories reject Leavers who back a hard Brexit for liberals like you and your family they will end up like the Progressive Conservatives in Canada in 1993, down to less nservative Party of Canada under Harper
Turn your back on the voters of the future and see where that gets you. There are some in your party who get this. Not you. It's not sad for me. But for the party you support.
You are making yourself irrelevant. What is very much worse you are prepared to abandon your values by emulating people who explicitly reject liberal values, who embrace illiberalism, intolerance and bigotry.
That is very sad. For your party.
The majority of Tory voters voted Leave, if the party rejects them it will not have a future. It is as simple as that. The future will be the Brexit Party not the Tory Party at least for a generation or more
R.I.P the Tories then. All the Brexit party will do is enable a Corbyn government. What an achievement.
It would actually be voters like you trying to dish the Tories' core vote which would enable a Corbyn government, you are better off in CUK for the foreseeble future anyway
I am not in CUK. The destruction of the Tory party and enabling Corbyn is down to you and those who think pursuing some utopia you can't even agree on in the most damaging way possible is a sensible course of action.
I am not in CUK. The destruction of the Tory party and enabling Corbyn is down to you and those who think pursuing some utopia you can't even agree on in the most damaging way possible is a sensible course of action.
I think the Tories are best as a broad church. Telling you to bugger off to another party is not helpful.
The way the Tories are behaving is making the prospect of a Corbyn government ever more likely. You think, complacently, that fear of Corbyn will help the Tories at the next election. Well, it won’t. The Tories are exhausted, insane, hell-bent on civil war and seemingly determined to inflict the worst possible type of Brexit on the country. For them then to turn round and claim that a Corbyn government will be a disaster will invite derision, even from those who ought to be their natural supporters or, at least, persuadable.
But as we have seen you don’t even want to persuade. As we have seen on this thread the Tories’ approach to anyone who does not believe in an ultra pure Brexit is “fuck off”. Well, as far as this voter is concerned, the response at the next election will be “fuck off” right back.
No, I explained the reality of a Corbyn government will help the Tories in opposition if Corbyn wins the next general election. To beat Corbyn at the next general election the Tories have to regain the 24% of 2017 Tory voters who now say they would back the Brexit Party or UKIP, given only 7% of 2017 Tories now say they would vote Labour, CUK or LD it is clear which voters the Tories must target and sadly for you it is not you
It's not sad for me. But for your party. You've lost two voters in a marginal seat with a Tory MP, one of whom used regularly to vote Tory. You also won't get any votes from our three children.
Now you may well gain others.
But you should consider whether it is possible that you will not gain such votes - or not enough of them - and will lose more voters repelled by the Tories turning into a party which thinks that people like Bolsonaro, Trump and Salvini are those it should emulate.
He is interested in purity rather than reaching out - he tried to persuade TSE he was a LibDem not a Conservative for goodness sakes
To the outsider - like me - he seems to speak like many Tories, at least as reported in the press. Sensible pragmatic liberal Tories seem awfully thin on the ground. The Tories are coming across as illiberal and nasty and destructive in their pursuit of some sort of utopia, apparently motivated only by dislike of foreigners.
Where is this dislike of foreigners Cyclefree?
Wanting to leave the EU does not equate to a dislike of foreigners - as well you should know.
Boris will storm it. To paraphrase Nixon: 'When the grass roots look at Theresa they see who they are; when they look at Boris they see who they want to be.' But the amazing thing about this header is the reminder that DD was once favourite to become Tory leader. Why? How? Surely it was simply because he was in the shadow cabinet and possibly better than Duncan Smith.
It's not sad for me. But for your party. You've lost two voters in a marginal seat with a Tory MP, one of whom used regularly to vote Tory. You also won't get any votes from our three children.
Now you may well gain others.
But you should consider whether it is possible that you will not gain such votes - or not enough of them - and will lose more voters repelled by the Tories turning into a party which thinks that people like Bolsonaro, Trump and Salvini are those it should emulate.
He is interested in purity rather than reaching out - he tried to persuade TSE he was a LibDem not a Conservative for goodness sakes
To the outsider - like me - he seems to speak like many Tories, at least as reported in the press. Sensible pragmatic liberal Tories seem awfully thin on the ground. The Tories are coming across as illiberal and nasty and destructive in their pursuit of some sort of utopia, apparently motivated only by dislike of foreigners.
Where is this dislike of foreigners Cyclefree?
Wanting to leave the EU does not equate to a dislike of foreigners - as well you should know.
Indeed it need not. On another thread I put a (I hope) sensible case for Leave in a response to @Roger.
But that case is not the case being made by the current Tory party which in rejecting the WA and in the language which is being used comes across as hating the very idea of reaching any sort of agreement with the EU at all and of hating foreigners. That is a perception which comes across to me and to other friends of mine, many of them people who have come to live in this country and see a government which seems to be developing a dislike of Abroad in its DNA.
You may say that is wrong. But that is the perception. I am mostly a foreigner and the image that Britain - via its government - is giving of itself - at least amongst my friends and family (both here and in Europe) is a really unpleasant one. Anecdotal I know. But there has been a change in recent months.
I am not in CUK. The destruction of the Tory party and enabling Corbyn is down to you and those who think pursuing some utopia you can't even agree on in the most damaging way possible is a sensible course of action.
I think the Tories are best as a broad church. Telling you to bugger off to another party is not helpful.
The problem is May has effectively told conservatives to bugger off, and we are now seeing the effects of that.
Funny how it's always the conservative side of the party that must make concessions, and now they're not having it anymore the entitled are furious they're no longer being listened to.
I am not in CUK. The destruction of the Tory party and enabling Corbyn is down to you and those who think pursuing some utopia you can't even agree on in the most damaging way possible is a sensible course of action.
I think the Tories are best as a broad church. Telling you to bugger off to another party is not helpful.
It's very like the Corbynistas.
Still, if the Corbyn-McDonnell grip on Labour were removed I could imagine myself voting for Labour, as I have done in the past.
The Brexit/Tory party HYUFD seems to want is one I could never vote for.
I am not in CUK. The destruction of the Tory party and enabling Corbyn is down to you and those who think pursuing some utopia you can't even agree on in the most damaging way possible is a sensible course of action.
I think the Tories are best as a broad church. Telling you to bugger off to another party is not helpful.
The problem is May has effectively told conservatives to bugger off, and we are now seeing the effects of that.
Funny how it's always the conservative side of the party that must make concessions, and now they're not having it anymore the entitled are furious they're no longer being listened to.
She has negotiated probably the hardest WA/PD possible short of leaving without a deal. Not her fault that the ERG are mad hatters.
I am not in CUK. The destruction of the Tory party and enabling Corbyn is down to you and those who think pursuing some utopia you can't even agree on in the most damaging way possible is a sensible course of action.
I think the Tories are best as a broad church. Telling you to bugger off to another party is not helpful.
The problem is May has effectively told conservatives to bugger off, and we are now seeing the effects of that.
Funny how it's always the conservative side of the party that must make concessions, and now they're not having it anymore the entitled are furious they're no longer being listened to.
She has negotiated probably the hardest WA/PD possible short of leaving without a deal. Not her fault that the ERG are mad hatters.
Nonsense. And she didn't negotiate it, it was her idea!
I am not in CUK. The destruction of the Tory party and enabling Corbyn is down to you and those who think pursuing some utopia you can't even agree on in the most damaging way possible is a sensible course of action.
I think the Tories are best as a broad church. Telling you to bugger off to another party is not helpful.
The problem is May has effectively told conservatives to bugger off, and we are now seeing the effects of that.
Funny how it's always the conservative side of the party that must make concessions, and now they're not having it anymore the entitled are furious they're no longer being listened to.
She has negotiated probably the hardest WA/PD possible short of leaving without a deal. Not her fault that the ERG are mad hatters.
Nonsense. And she didn't negotiate it, it was her idea!
True but Chamberlain was a nationalist, imperialist protectionist and still a Tory, not a free market Tory that was the point, the fact he was not a free marketeer was why he left the Liberals for the Tories
No, it was because he was opposed to Home Rule for Ireland (or to be exact, Home Rule for Ireland only - he was willing to consider full federation). Your attempts to prove otherwise are starting to remind me of your famous diatribe on the Ullapool-Inverness ferry.
R.I.P the Tories then. All the Brexit party will do is enable a Corbyn government. What an achievement.
Indeed it is amazing how the Tories have managed to manoeuvre Corbyn from derided no hoper to the threshold of Downing Street. Few would have believed it possible but the Tories have done it.
Somebody once said that the Tories will only turn to Boris when they are 2 - 0 down, with 10 minutes left to play. I suspect that many Tory MPs could now be considering whether Boris is the only person who can save the day.
No. Just no. Lazy, untruthful, a disaster in the only Cabinet job he has held. He has an appalling reputation round the world at a time when Britain needs friends and to forge new relationships. His “fuck business” comment tells business all they need to know about a country which has this clown as its PM or as leader as one of the main parties.
If the Tories insist on seeing everything through some Brexit purity test they deserve to die and the sooner the better.
Well said.
From Derby to Disraeli to Joseph Chamberlain to Enoch Powell the Tories have often been nationalist and even protectionist, they are not the Liberal Party and I believe you are normally Labour and a Remainer anyway
Telling this is your go to move. You seem utterly unconcerned that anyone other than the pure might ever vote Tory.
Disraeli won, Derby won most seats twice, Powell had West Midlands Dockers marching chanting his name, Joseph Chamberlain was several times elected mayor of Birmingham, there are plenty who will vote for a populist right party, Leave would not have won without them
But Joseph Chamberlain was a Radical Liberal when Mayor of Birmingham - often credited with Municipal Socialism.
Chamberlain and Lloyd George didn't exactly get on.
That was Neville Chamberlain.
No, Joe Chamberlain. Lloyd George was anti-Boer War, Chamberlain pro. When LG spoke in Brimingham, the "heckling" involved bricks.
Ok - though Neville Chamberlain and Lloyd George certainly disliked each other. The latter appointed Chamberlain Director of National Service in 1916 despite his not being an MP at the time. A year later Lloyd George dismissed him having found him ineffective. Thereafter, the relationship was one of mutual hatred which extended to 1940 when Lloyd George felt unable to join Churchill's Wartime Coalition on account of being unable to get on with Chamberlain.
Comments
[1] double -entry bookkeeping means that accountants never have to subtract. Hence the joke.
Wanting to leave the EU does not equate to a dislike of foreigners - as well you should know.
But that case is not the case being made by the current Tory party which in rejecting the WA and in the language which is being used comes across as hating the very idea of reaching any sort of agreement with the EU at all and of hating foreigners. That is a perception which comes across to me and to other friends of mine, many of them people who have come to live in this country and see a government which seems to be developing a dislike of Abroad in its DNA.
You may say that is wrong. But that is the perception. I am mostly a foreigner and the image that Britain - via its government - is giving of itself - at least amongst my friends and family (both here and in Europe) is a really unpleasant one. Anecdotal I know. But there has been a change in recent months.
Funny how it's always the conservative side of the party that must make concessions, and now they're not having it anymore the entitled are furious they're no longer being listened to.
Still, if the Corbyn-McDonnell grip on Labour were removed I could imagine myself voting for Labour, as I have done in the past.
The Brexit/Tory party HYUFD seems to want is one I could never vote for.