Odd though that they also have a rather low figure for the Brexit Party (and a high figure for Labour) in the Euros - very different from the YouGov figures.
I would think asking for Westminster and EU Parliament VI in the same poll distorts the figures for the latter because people would be more likely to repeat their Westminster answer.
Good point, we'd need to check the detail of how the questions were asked. (The distortion could be the other way, of course).
Oops. Although I do wonder if there is some expectations management going on.
Not really. That is my expectation.
2018 2019 2020 2021
Perhaps Crossrail 2 should be cancelled before it is allowed to begin.
So speaks a voice of ignorance.
We get this all the time.
What are you complaining about ?
Its over budget and years behind schedule.
You get this all the time because these projects go wrong all the time.
Why don't you try under-promising and over-delivering if you want praise.
You are ignorant of the subject matter and yet feel wholly qualified to pronounce judgment on it despite your utter ignorance. Your posts read like a Daily Mail headline.
All railway industry and project experts estimated 10-12 years for Crossrail back in 2009 (long before the first spade was turned in 2010) and all the risk and contingency was clipped back by the Treasury to give it an undeliverable horizon of 2018, because they don’t understand systems integration and wanted to bugger about with the fiscal/economic model. That was further messed around with in the CSR of 2010 to get it past George Osborne.
The programme is performing as i’d expect it to given the capacity constraints of the industry and the sheer complexity of what we’re trying to do.
Over budget and behind schedule.
And now you're blaming everyone else.
Why don't you take some responsibility.
Isn't that what Conservatives are supposed to be in favour of ?
Mueller report specifically said he wasn't exonerated.
It exonerated him from collusion but left the question of obstruction open, Barr and Rosenstein concluded no obstruction. I doubt this report would see the light of day if anything concrete is in it. There will be enough for trump haters to scream to the sky about and once this is out I expect trump to declassify the FISA docs which will give trumpers enough to scream to the sky about
Odd though that they also have a rather low figure for the Brexit Party (and a high figure for Labour) in the Euros - very different from the YouGov figures.
I would think asking for Westminster and EU Parliament VI in the same poll distorts the figures for the latter because people would be more likely to repeat their Westminster answer.
Good point, we'd need to check the detail of how the questions were asked. (The distortion could be the other way, of course).
Comres ask the european Vi question as the 8th one.
Oops. Although I do wonder if there is some expectations management going on.
Not really. That is my expectation.
Ouch. And thanks.
A few months ago the BBC repeated a series from about 2012, where a presented (Davies?) showed how Britain was finally getting massive infrastructure projects right. I think the BBC schedulers were having some fun...
Oops. Although I do wonder if there is some expectations management going on.
Not really. That is my expectation.
Ouch. And thanks.
A few months ago the BBC repeated a series from about 2012, where a presented (Davies?) showed how Britain was finally getting massive infrastructure projects right. I think the BBC schedulers were having some fun...
Like all railway projects Crossrail massively underestimated the time required to do systems integration in its programme. WCML was the same. HS2 will be worse - there’s no way that’s opening in 2026. The huge delay on bringing into use the Waterloo international platforms is another example.
Railways are very regulated and black and white as it’s a completely interlocked system from head to toe. Either everything is finished or nothing is finished. Either it’s completely safe or it doesn’t open.
Any big railway should have 4-5 years for this stuff.
AFAICR HS1 phase 1 and 2 were not too bad timescale-wise (though financially they were poor). But they were (relatively) fresh railways. the WCML and GWML updates are trying to upgrade hundreds of miles of operating railway.
I've just re-read 'I tried to run a railway', by Gerard Fiennes. In it, he states how for the GEML electrification in the 1960s it would have been far easier just to shut the railway for a few months.
It seems we don't learn from history ...
HS1 was a far simpler project and its legal authority and planning went all the way back to 1996, which was well advanced by the the time construction got underway.
It’s systems integration that kills you.
Agree with that. And with its three signalling systems, Crossrail has got one heck of a job.
I'd expect later projects to find it a little easier due to the learning curve having been eased.
They'd be far better off blocking the M25 but then theyd be out of their Central London comfort zone.
It’s really all irrelevant anyway, since it doesn’t matter how much the U.K. government does, it will do naff all to global emissions. They’d be better off protesting in China.
It's a great visual but before we are too hard on China it's worth dividing the emissions by the population...
That said, China has the biggest scope to make a difference... and being a centrally controlled economy, it probably will.
The atmosphere doesn’t give a shit how many people made the CO2.
And anyone bloviating about how it's them Chinese, nothing to do with us, Squire, had better be sure they are not bloviating on a China made product.
I’m not the one supposedly concerned about CO2 emissions. Even if I was, no one is forcing the Chinese to use polluting technologies in their products.
I’m pointing out the people who claim they are concerned about CO2 are talking bullshit. The Climate Change protests have naff all to do with CO2 emissions.
Odd though that they also have a rather low figure for the Brexit Party (and a high figure for Labour) in the Euros - very different from the YouGov figures.
I would think asking for Westminster and EU Parliament VI in the same poll distorts the figures for the latter because people would be more likely to repeat their Westminster answer.
Good point, we'd need to check the detail of how the questions were asked. (The distortion could be the other way, of course).
Comres ask the european Vi question as the 8th one.
That might explain why Labour is so high for the Euro elections, applying William's point.
Anyone heard of Earth Day 1970? It's been the subject of protests mostly very peaceful for all my adult life. Almost nothing was done, except that I'd say that decent things started to happen during the 1974-79 Lab/Lib-Lab government. Something must have happened in 1979, but these reports for serious action in the energy policy field all rather ground to a halt by the mid-1980s. I wonder why ...
John Gummer is probably genuine in his concern but are any other Tories, or is it still 'green crap'?
Who was the scientist who in the 1980s told the Royal Society that "There is a danger that ‘we have unwittingly begun a massive experiment with the system of this planet itself’?"
Yes but she didn't have the courage to do something and her mentors were Enoch Powell and Keith Joseph. Limited UK progress 1974-79 couldn't have continued under a 'market will provide' economic policy. Government intervention as accepted 1945-79 (if not earlier) was no longer acceptable.
What are you going on about? Labour, both in government and opposition, was trying to maximise the burning of coal.
The unions were trying to do that. Wilson closed coal mines at a faster rate than Thatcher although he did it a lot more peacefully. Callaghan who replaced him was a 'union man'
Mueller report specifically said he wasn't exonerated.
It exonerated him from collusion but left the question of obstruction open, Barr and Rosenstein concluded no obstruction. I doubt this report would see the light of day if anything concrete is in it. There will be enough for trump haters to scream to the sky about and once this is out I expect trump to declassify the FISA docs which will give trumpers enough to scream to the sky about
I would guess there will be a good number of instances of Trumps issues with "facts" and that Team Trump were dead keen to get any dirt they could and weren't exactly bothered to check out who was providing it and why they might want to do so.
I have hats I'm prepared to eat if labour get 30% plus in the euros
No party has scored 30%+ in a UK European election since 1999, and that was back when the biggest non-Con/Lab/LD party scored less than 7%, and only five parties scored more than 3%. Times have changed greatly since then.
Odd though that they also have a rather low figure for the Brexit Party (and a high figure for Labour) in the Euros - very different from the YouGov figures.
The EU referendum figure suggests it's a very pro-Remain sample, which would explain why support for pro-Brexit parties is much lower than with YouGov.
Odd though that they also have a rather low figure for the Brexit Party (and a high figure for Labour) in the Euros - very different from the YouGov figures.
The EU referendum figure suggests it's a very pro-Remain sample, which would explain why support for pro-Brexit parties is much lower than with YouGov.
Hahaha - if you don't like the results they were obviously asking the wrong people.
The way to be sure is to ask all the people in a 2ndRef.
Odd though that they also have a rather low figure for the Brexit Party (and a high figure for Labour) in the Euros - very different from the YouGov figures.
The EU referendum figure suggests it's a very pro-Remain sample, which would explain why support for pro-Brexit parties is much lower than with YouGov.
Hahaha - if you don't like the results they were obviously asking the wrong people.
The way to be sure is to ask all the people in a 2ndRef.
Odd though that they also have a rather low figure for the Brexit Party (and a high figure for Labour) in the Euros - very different from the YouGov figures.
The EU referendum figure suggests it's a very pro-Remain sample, which would explain why support for pro-Brexit parties is much lower than with YouGov.
Hahaha - if you don't like the results they were obviously asking the wrong people.
The way to be sure is to ask all the people in a 2ndRef.
Perhaps they're right and YouGov are wrong, but YouGov were very accurate in 2014.
I believe there are no local by-elections today - or indeed next week. However on May 2nd there are at least 40; as well as the normal round of local elections.
The latest YouGov opinion poll records 45% as saying they are 10/10 certain to vote for the European elections. A further 20% say they are more than 5/10 certain to vote. Turnout in 2014 was 35.6%.
Two questions:
1) how likely does the brains trust think that turnout will be somewhere above 55%? 2) if not, will any party be disproportionately likely to be overegged in the polls, and if so which?
People tend to overstate their willingness to go out and vote. FWIW, I think turnout will be higher than usual, but I'd be amazed if it went above 50%, say 45-50%.
Most polls (including this morning's YouGov ) show a greater readiness on the part of Remainers than Leavers to vote (and a very low readiness to vote of people who did not vote in the EU referendum). OTOH, yesterday's YouGov Poll for Peoples' Vote suggested that gap had closed, which probably accounts for the Brexit Party's very strong showing. I don't know yet if that was just a one-off, or indeed each side will be equally enthusiastic. I suspect that Farage probably has enthused some people who would otherwise have abstained.
I shall be surprised if turnout in the EU elections exceeds 40%.
Odd though that they also have a rather low figure for the Brexit Party (and a high figure for Labour) in the Euros - very different from the YouGov figures.
The EU referendum figure suggests it's a very pro-Remain sample, which would explain why support for pro-Brexit parties is much lower than with YouGov.
Hahaha - if you don't like the results they were obviously asking the wrong people.
The way to be sure is to ask all the people in a 2ndRef.
Perhaps they're right and YouGov are wrong, but YouGov were very accurate in 2014.
In general UKIP underperformed their polling in 2014.
Mueller report specifically said he wasn't exonerated.
It exonerated him from collusion but left the question of obstruction open, Barr and Rosenstein concluded no obstruction. I doubt this report would see the light of day if anything concrete is in it. There will be enough for trump haters to scream to the sky about and once this is out I expect trump to declassify the FISA docs which will give trumpers enough to scream to the sky about
It didn't say anything about "collusion", which is a term beloved of Trump, by not really anything to do with the investigation, which was about conspiracy. Whether you call this 'exoneration' is a matter of opinion, but this is the relevant bit of the Mueller report which Barr actually quoted in his letter. “[T]he investigation did not establish that members of the Trump Campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities.”
Of course one could surmise that the failure to find evidence might possibly be a result of obstruction.
The latest YouGov opinion poll records 45% as saying they are 10/10 certain to vote for the European elections. A further 20% say they are more than 5/10 certain to vote. Turnout in 2014 was 35.6%.
Two questions:
1) how likely does the brains trust think that turnout will be somewhere above 55%? 2) if not, will any party be disproportionately likely to be overegged in the polls, and if so which?
People tend to overstate their willingness to go out and vote. FWIW, I think turnout will be higher than usual, but I'd be amazed if it went above 50%, say 45-50%.
Most polls (including this morning's YouGov ) show a greater readiness on the part of Remainers than Leavers to vote (and a very low readiness to vote of people who did not vote in the EU referendum). OTOH, yesterday's YouGov Poll for Peoples' Vote suggested that gap had closed, which probably accounts for the Brexit Party's very strong showing. I don't know yet if that was just a one-off, or indeed each side will be equally enthusiastic. I suspect that Farage probably has enthused some people who would otherwise have abstained.
I shall be surprised if turnout in the EU elections exceeds 40%.
I wonder how the 6.1 million who signed the Revoke petition will vote. It's a lot of voters, if they decide to turn out.
The latest YouGov opinion poll records 45% as saying they are 10/10 certain to vote for the European elections. A further 20% say they are more than 5/10 certain to vote. Turnout in 2014 was 35.6%.
Two questions:
1) how likely does the brains trust think that turnout will be somewhere above 55%? 2) if not, will any party be disproportionately likely to be overegged in the polls, and if so which?
People tend to overstate their willingness to go out and vote. FWIW, I think turnout will be higher than usual, but I'd be amazed if it went above 50%, say 45-50%.
Most polls (including this morning's YouGov ) show a greater readiness on the part of Remainers than Leavers to vote (and a very low readiness to vote of people who did not vote in the EU referendum). OTOH, yesterday's YouGov Poll for Peoples' Vote suggested that gap had closed, which probably accounts for the Brexit Party's very strong showing. I don't know yet if that was just a one-off, or indeed each side will be equally enthusiastic. I suspect that Farage probably has enthused some people who would otherwise have abstained.
I shall be surprised if turnout in the EU elections exceeds 40%.
I wonder how the 6.1 million who signed the Revoke petition will vote. It's a lot of voters, if they decide to turn out.
Odd though that they also have a rather low figure for the Brexit Party (and a high figure for Labour) in the Euros - very different from the YouGov figures.
The EU referendum figure suggests it's a very pro-Remain sample, which would explain why support for pro-Brexit parties is much lower than with YouGov.
Hahaha - if you don't like the results they were obviously asking the wrong people.
The way to be sure is to ask all the people in a 2ndRef.
Perhaps they're right and YouGov are wrong, but YouGov were very accurate in 2014.
In general UKIP underperformed their polling in 2014.
The latest YouGov opinion poll records 45% as saying they are 10/10 certain to vote for the European elections. A further 20% say they are more than 5/10 certain to vote. Turnout in 2014 was 35.6%.
Two questions:
1) how likely does the brains trust think that turnout will be somewhere above 55%? 2) if not, will any party be disproportionately likely to be overegged in the polls, and if so which?
People tend to overstate their willingness to go out and vote. FWIW, I think turnout will be higher than usual, but I'd be amazed if it went above 50%, say 45-50%.
Most polls (including this morning's YouGov ) show a greater readiness on the part of Remainers than Leavers to vote (and a very low readiness to vote of people who did not vote in the EU referendum). OTOH, yesterday's YouGov Poll for Peoples' Vote suggested that gap had closed, which probably accounts for the Brexit Party's very strong showing. I don't know yet if that was just a one-off, or indeed each side will be equally enthusiastic. I suspect that Farage probably has enthused some people who would otherwise have abstained.
I shall be surprised if turnout in the EU elections exceeds 40%.
I wonder how the 6.1 million who signed the Revoke petition will vote. It's a lot of voters, if they decide to turn out.
Most of them, I should think.
How many dogs, cats, hamsters and kids are going to be sent packing by the Returning Officer?
The latest YouGov opinion poll records 45% as saying they are 10/10 certain to vote for the European elections. A further 20% say they are more than 5/10 certain to vote. Turnout in 2014 was 35.6%.
Two questions:
1) how likely does the brains trust think that turnout will be somewhere above 55%? 2) if not, will any party be disproportionately likely to be overegged in the polls, and if so which?
People tend to overstate their willingness to go out and vote. FWIW, I think turnout will be higher than usual, but I'd be amazed if it went above 50%, say 45-50%.
Most polls (including this morning's YouGov ) show a greater readiness on the part of Remainers than Leavers to vote (and a very low readiness to vote of people who did not vote in the EU referendum). OTOH, yesterday's YouGov Poll for Peoples' Vote suggested that gap had closed, which probably accounts for the Brexit Party's very strong showing. I don't know yet if that was just a one-off, or indeed each side will be equally enthusiastic. I suspect that Farage probably has enthused some people who would otherwise have abstained.
I shall be surprised if turnout in the EU elections exceeds 40%.
I wonder how the 6.1 million who signed the Revoke petition will vote. It's a lot of voters, if they decide to turn out.
Does anyone genuinely believe that press freedom is worse in the UK than South Africa and Ghana?
"UK ranks below Jamaica, Latvia and Ghana for press freedom, global study finds The UK remains one of the worst counties in western Europe for freedom of the press, according to the latest report by Reporters Without Borders (RSF). Ranked 33rd in the list of 180 countries, Britain was placed behind Jamaica, Surinam, Ghana, Namibia, South Africa, Latvia and Lichtenstein in the advocacy group’s 2019 World Press Freedom Index."
The polls at the moment probably need a larger than usual pinch of salt. What's particularly unclear is how much momentum Farage will get. On the one hand, his launch certainly got plenty of coverage. On the other hand, at election time Brexit Party will be "another minor party that didn't stand last time" and probably get relatively limited TV coverage (what the print press will do is anyone's guess), unless the obvious interest in how he's doing gets extra coverage. With next to no local infrastructure, it's possible that he's already peaked, or that the bandwagon will gather speed. (Similar thoughts apply to ChUK, writ small.)
The latest YouGov opinion poll records 45% as saying they are 10/10 certain to vote for the European elections. A further 20% say they are more than 5/10 certain to vote. Turnout in 2014 was 35.6%.
Two questions:
1) how likely does the brains trust think that turnout will be somewhere above 55%? 2) if not, will any party be disproportionately likely to be overegged in the polls, and if so which?
People tend to overstate their willingness to go out and vote. FWIW, I think turnout will be higher than usual, but I'd be amazed if it went above 50%, say 45-50%.
Most polls (including this morning's YouGov ) show a greater readiness on the part of Remainers than Leavers to vote (and a very low readiness to vote of people who did not vote in the EU referendum). OTOH, yesterday's YouGov Poll for Peoples' Vote suggested that gap had closed, which probably accounts for the Brexit Party's very strong showing. I don't know yet if that was just a one-off, or indeed each side will be equally enthusiastic. I suspect that Farage probably has enthused some people who would otherwise have abstained.
I shall be surprised if turnout in the EU elections exceeds 40%.
I wonder how the 6.1 million who signed the Revoke petition will vote. It's a lot of voters, if they decide to turn out.
I hope no one is forgetting that awful three day gap between voting and counting for the EU elections.
More interesting will be the gap between the locals and the EU elections. If May 2/3 turns out to be a terrrrrrrrrrible night for the Tories, it could kick off big time in the party.
The latest YouGov opinion poll records 45% as saying they are 10/10 certain to vote for the European elections. A further 20% say they are more than 5/10 certain to vote. Turnout in 2014 was 35.6%.
Two questions:
1) how likely does the brains trust think that turnout will be somewhere above 55%? 2) if not, will any party be disproportionately likely to be overegged in the polls, and if so which?
People tend to overstate their willingness to go out and vote. FWIW, I think turnout will be higher than usual, but I'd be amazed if it went above 50%, say 45-50%.
Most polls (including this morning's YouGov ) show a greater readiness on the part of Remainers than Leavers to vote (and a very low readiness to vote of people who did not vote in the EU referendum). OTOH, yesterday's YouGov Poll for Peoples' Vote suggested that gap had closed, which probably accounts for the Brexit Party's very strong showing. I don't know yet if that was just a one-off, or indeed each side will be equally enthusiastic. I suspect that Farage probably has enthused some people who would otherwise have abstained.
I shall be surprised if turnout in the EU elections exceeds 40%.
I wonder how the 6.1 million who signed the Revoke petition will vote. It's a lot of voters, if they decide to turn out.
The latest YouGov opinion poll records 45% as saying they are 10/10 certain to vote for the European elections. A further 20% say they are more than 5/10 certain to vote. Turnout in 2014 was 35.6%.
Two questions:
1) how likely does the brains trust think that turnout will be somewhere above 55%? 2) if not, will any party be disproportionately likely to be overegged in the polls, and if so which?
People tend to overstate their willingness to go out and vote. FWIW, I think turnout will be higher than usual, but I'd be amazed if it went above 50%, say 45-50%.
Most polls (including this morning's YouGov ) show a greater readiness on the part of Remainers than Leavers to vote (and a very low readiness to vote of people who did not vote in the EU referendum). OTOH, yesterday's YouGov Poll for Peoples' Vote suggested that gap had closed, which probably accounts for the Brexit Party's very strong showing. I don't know yet if that was just a one-off, or indeed each side will be equally enthusiastic. I suspect that Farage probably has enthused some people who would otherwise have abstained.
I shall be surprised if turnout in the EU elections exceeds 40%.
I wonder how the 6.1 million who signed the Revoke petition will vote. It's a lot of voters, if they decide to turn out.
Most of them, I should think.
How many dogs, cats, hamsters and kids are going to be sent packing by the Returning Officer?
The latest YouGov opinion poll records 45% as saying they are 10/10 certain to vote for the European elections. A further 20% say they are more than 5/10 certain to vote. Turnout in 2014 was 35.6%.
Two questions:
1) how likely does the brains trust think that turnout will be somewhere above 55%? 2) if not, will any party be disproportionately likely to be overegged in the polls, and if so which?
People tend to overstate their willingness to go out and vote. FWIW, I think turnout will be higher than usual, but I'd be amazed if it went above 50%, say 45-50%.
Most polls (including this morning's YouGov ) show a greater readiness on the part of Remainers than Leavers to vote (and a very low readiness to vote of people who did not vote in the EU referendum). OTOH, yesterday's YouGov Poll for Peoples' Vote suggested that gap had closed, which probably accounts for the Brexit Party's very strong showing. I don't know yet if that was just a one-off, or indeed each side will be equally enthusiastic. I suspect that Farage probably has enthused some people who would otherwise have abstained.
I shall be surprised if turnout in the EU elections exceeds 40%.
I wonder how the 6.1 million who signed the Revoke petition will vote. It's a lot of voters, if they decide to turn out.
"Original plan" is misleading; there will have been multiple plans over many centuries.
Many of our cathedrals are also 'incomplete'; either due to changing architectural fashions, lack of money, or collapse. St Edmundsbury Cathedral in Bury St Edmunds recently had a Gothic-styled tower added.
Does anyone genuinely believe that press freedom is worse in the UK than South Africa and Ghana?
"UK ranks below Jamaica, Latvia and Ghana for press freedom, global study finds The UK remains one of the worst counties in western Europe for freedom of the press, according to the latest report by Reporters Without Borders (RSF). Ranked 33rd in the list of 180 countries, Britain was placed behind Jamaica, Surinam, Ghana, Namibia, South Africa, Latvia and Lichtenstein in the advocacy group’s 2019 World Press Freedom Index."
I hope no one is forgetting that awful three day gap between voting and counting for the EU elections.
More interesting will be the gap between the locals and the EU elections. If May 2/3 turns out to be a terrrrrrrrrrible night for the Tories, it could kick off big time in the party.
I think the locals will matter more within the party. Huge losses would generate widespread anger.
My current guess is a net loss of about 800 for the Tories.
The polls at the moment probably need a larger than usual pinch of salt. What's particularly unclear is how much momentum Farage will get. On the one hand, his launch certainly got plenty of coverage. On the other hand, at election time Brexit Party will be "another minor party that didn't stand last time" and probably get relatively limited TV coverage (what the print press will do is anyone's guess), unless the obvious interest in how he's doing gets extra coverage. With next to no local infrastructure, it's possible that he's already peaked, or that the bandwagon will gather speed. (Similar thoughts apply to ChUK, writ small.)
A further unknown is how many EU citizens will register and vote - I think something like 3 million are eligible, so it's potentially a quite big pool and one which the polling companies may not be set up to track.
I hope no one is forgetting that awful three day gap between voting and counting for the EU elections.
More interesting will be the gap between the locals and the EU elections. If May 2/3 turns out to be a terrrrrrrrrrible night for the Tories, it could kick off big time in the party.
I think the locals will matter more within the party. Huge losses would generate widespread anger.
My current guess is a net loss of about 800 for the Tories.
Oops. Although I do wonder if there is some expectations management going on.
Not really. That is my expectation.
2018 2019 2020 2021
Perhaps Crossrail 2 should be cancelled before it is allowed to begin.
So speaks a voice of ignorance.
We get this all the time.
What are you complaining about ?
Its over budget and years behind schedule.
You get this all the time because these projects go wrong all the time.
Why don't you try under-promising and over-delivering if you want praise.
You are ignorant of the subject matter and yet feel wholly qualified to pronounce judgment on it despite your utter ignorance. Your posts read like a Daily Mail headline.
All railway industry and project experts estimated 10-12 years for Crossrail back in 2009 (long before the first spade was turned in 2010) and all the risk and contingency was clipped back by the Treasury to give it an undeliverable horizon of 2018, because they don’t understand systems integration and wanted to bugger about with the fiscal/economic model. That was further messed around with in the CSR of 2010 to get it past George Osborne.
The programme is performing as i’d expect it to given the capacity constraints of the industry and the sheer complexity of what we’re trying to do.
Over budget and behind schedule.
And now you're blaming everyone else.
Why don't you take some responsibility.
Isn't that what Conservatives are supposed to be in favour of ?
The polls at the moment probably need a larger than usual pinch of salt. What's particularly unclear is how much momentum Farage will get. On the one hand, his launch certainly got plenty of coverage. On the other hand, at election time Brexit Party will be "another minor party that didn't stand last time" and probably get relatively limited TV coverage (what the print press will do is anyone's guess), unless the obvious interest in how he's doing gets extra coverage. With next to no local infrastructure, it's possible that he's already peaked, or that the bandwagon will gather speed. (Similar thoughts apply to ChUK, writ small.)
And there is still quite a bit of scope for confusion between Brexit and UKIP. How many voters appreciate that they are not one and the same?
But I think we can be fairly sure that CHUK will bomb - as I have said before, my MP is one of the Labour defectors and as far as I know no party members have followed him, they have no local structure and pretty much zero visibility at the local level. If they can't make an impact in their own constituencies than their chances at national level must be pretty dire.
I hope no one is forgetting that awful three day gap between voting and counting for the EU elections.
More interesting will be the gap between the locals and the EU elections. If May 2/3 turns out to be a terrrrrrrrrrible night for the Tories, it could kick off big time in the party.
I think the locals will matter more within the party. Huge losses would generate widespread anger.
My current guess is a net loss of about 800 for the Tories.
I reckon they'd settle for that!
My working assumptions are that:-
1. The Lib Dems will recover to their position in 2011 2. Labour will do slightly better than in 2011, relative to the Conservatives, although their NEV will be well down on 2011 3. This will be a good year for Indpendents/Minor parties.
The number of seats has been reduced by 1100, compared to 2015. Without that, Conservative losses would be close to 1000.
So, Barr declares that there was no collusion... so long as collusion (conspiracy) is defined as Trump campaign officials actually involved in the hacking of DNC emails themselves... a very high bar and not one that anyone has actually suggested...
I hope no one is forgetting that awful three day gap between voting and counting for the EU elections.
More interesting will be the gap between the locals and the EU elections. If May 2/3 turns out to be a terrrrrrrrrrible night for the Tories, it could kick off big time in the party.
I think the locals will matter more within the party. Huge losses would generate widespread anger.
My current guess is a net loss of about 800 for the Tories.
I reckon they'd settle for that!
My working assumptions are that:-
1. The Lib Dems will recover to their position in 2011 2. Labour will do slightly better than in 2011, relative to the Conservatives, although their NEV will be well down on 2011 3. This will be a good year for Indpendents/Minor parties.
The number of seats has been reduced by 1100, compared to 2015. Without that, Conservative losses would be close to 1000.
I hope no one is forgetting that awful three day gap between voting and counting for the EU elections.
More interesting will be the gap between the locals and the EU elections. If May 2/3 turns out to be a terrrrrrrrrrible night for the Tories, it could kick off big time in the party.
I think the locals will matter more within the party. Huge losses would generate widespread anger.
My current guess is a net loss of about 800 for the Tories.
I reckon they'd settle for that!
My working assumptions are that:-
1. The Lib Dems will recover to their position in 2011 2. Labour will do slightly better than in 2011, relative to the Conservatives, although their NEV will be well down on 2011 3. This will be a good year for Indpendents/Minor parties.
The number of seats has been reduced by 1100, compared to 2015. Without that, Conservative losses would be close to 1000.
I'd guess Tory targets would be holding losses under 1000 and trying to cobble together 20% in the euros
Comments
The EURO Poll looks very wrong IMO.
I would be very surprised if Lab gets more MEPs than BREXIT party
And now you're blaming everyone else.
Why don't you take some responsibility.
Isn't that what Conservatives are supposed to be in favour of ?
The US attorney general has been accused of "waging a media campaign" for President Donald Trump ahead of the Mueller report's long-awaited release.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47974261
He is "waging a war" because he is going to give a press conference a couple of hours before the release....I mean, really.
I'd expect later projects to find it a little easier due to the learning curve having been eased.
I’m pointing out the people who claim they are concerned about CO2 are talking bullshit. The Climate Change protests have naff all to do with CO2 emissions.
Climate change: Central banks warn of financial risks in open letter
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-47965284
UK's biggest money manager warns on climate catastrophe
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47941180
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/12327672.the-man-who-killed-old-labour/
Which of course is nothing we don't already know.
That sounds like a pre-emptive strike...
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997
Theresa May, Philip Hammond and Oliver Letwin have taken Con to their worst polling performance for nearly 23 years!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10777924/Ukip-accused-of-hissy-fits-as-immigration-posters-launched.html
Edit: sorry, I see - removing the 'would not vote' respondents.
Fake lunch!
https://www.twitter.com/YouGov/status/1118830401945051136?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/1150/yougov?page=239
You should have backed Dave.
https://twitter.com/amarjourno/status/1118623930791735297?s=21
https://twitter.com/radicalcath/status/1118792161133248513?s=21
You carry the mark of Cain.
https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2019/apr/18/ferry-services-get-brexit-delay-boost-as-summer-sales-soar
The way to be sure is to ask all the people in a 2ndRef.
The spire certainly was.
Two nice days in a row. Gosh.
At least Rees-Mogg has belief in the power of resurrection.....
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1118860425599307777?s=21
Whether you call this 'exoneration' is a matter of opinion, but this is the relevant bit of the Mueller report which Barr actually quoted in his letter.
“[T]he investigation did not establish that members of the Trump Campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities.”
Of course one could surmise that the failure to find evidence might possibly be a result of obstruction.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom
"UK ranks below Jamaica, Latvia and Ghana for press freedom, global study finds
The UK remains one of the worst counties in western Europe for freedom of the press, according to the latest report by Reporters Without Borders (RSF).
Ranked 33rd in the list of 180 countries, Britain was placed behind Jamaica, Surinam, Ghana, Namibia, South Africa, Latvia and Lichtenstein in the advocacy group’s 2019 World Press Freedom Index."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/press-freedom-index-uk-ranking-reporters-without-borders-us-italy-a8875771.html
My current guess is a net loss of about 800 for the Tories.
Mr. Mark, nah, it'll be too hot.
Winchester cathedral is the same.
That wont satisfy anyone
But I think we can be fairly sure that CHUK will bomb - as I have said before, my MP is one of the Labour defectors and as far as I know no party members have followed him, they have no local structure and pretty much zero visibility at the local level. If they can't make an impact in their own constituencies than their chances at national level must be pretty dire.
1. The Lib Dems will recover to their position in 2011
2. Labour will do slightly better than in 2011, relative to the Conservatives, although their NEV will be well down on 2011
3. This will be a good year for Indpendents/Minor parties.
The number of seats has been reduced by 1100, compared to 2015. Without that, Conservative losses would be close to 1000.