I hope no one is forgetting that awful three day gap between voting and counting for the EU elections.
More interesting will be the gap between the locals and the EU elections. If May 2/3 turns out to be a terrrrrrrrrrible night for the Tories, it could kick off big time in the party.
I think the locals will matter more within the party. Huge losses would generate widespread anger.
My current guess is a net loss of about 800 for the Tories.
I reckon they'd settle for that!
My working assumptions are that:-
1. The Lib Dems will recover to their position in 2011 2. Labour will do slightly better than in 2011, relative to the Conservatives, although their NEV will be well down on 2011 3. This will be a good year for Indpendents/Minor parties.
The number of seats has been reduced by 1100, compared to 2015. Without that, Conservative losses would be close to 1000.
I hope no one is forgetting that awful three day gap between voting and counting for the EU elections.
More interesting will be the gap between the locals and the EU elections. If May 2/3 turns out to be a terrrrrrrrrrible night for the Tories, it could kick off big time in the party.
I think the locals will matter more within the party. Huge losses would generate widespread anger.
My current guess is a net loss of about 800 for the Tories.
I reckon they'd settle for that!
My working assumptions are that:-
1. The Lib Dems will recover to their position in 2011 2. Labour will do slightly better than in 2011, relative to the Conservatives, although their NEV will be well down on 2011 3. This will be a good year for Indpendents/Minor parties.
The number of seats has been reduced by 1100, compared to 2015. Without that, Conservative losses would be close to 1000.
I'd guess Tory targets would be holding losses under 1000 and trying to cobble together 20% in the euros
It's worth noting that 2011 was itself a dreadful round of local elections for the Lib Dems, when they lost 1000 seats. They then lost another 500 four years later.
So, Barr declares that there was no collusion... so long as collusion (conspiracy) is defined as Trump campaign officials actually involved in the hacking of DNC emails themselves... a very high bar and not one that anyone has actually suggested...
He said no collusion with the Russian government or IRA in their election meddling by any American. Pretty unequivocal. Whether the report bears that out though.... More interesting is that redactions are to protect 'ongoing matters'
So, Barr declares that there was no collusion... so long as collusion (conspiracy) is defined as Trump campaign officials actually involved in the hacking of DNC emails themselves... a very high bar and not one that anyone has actually suggested...
He said no collusion with the Russian government or IRA in their election meddling by any American. Pretty unequivocal. Whether the report bears that out though.... More interesting is that redactions are to protect 'ongoing matters'
US press core really are uncouth....i bet they drink boxed wine.
What have they done? Asked Barr to explain why he forgot to include in his letter three weeks ago that he and Rosenstein didn’t agree with the legal theories of Mueller when deciding not to indict Trump for obstruction?
So, Barr declares that there was no collusion... so long as collusion (conspiracy) is defined as Trump campaign officials actually involved in the hacking of DNC emails themselves... a very high bar and not one that anyone has actually suggested...
He said no collusion with the Russian government or IRA in their election meddling by any American. Pretty unequivocal. Whether the report bears that out though.... More interesting is that redactions are to protect 'ongoing matters'
Roger stone in the doo doo...
Partly yes, although theres plenty 'connected' that might be under sniff by some of the still active enquiries on either side - the SDNY anti trump investigations and Huber who is likely targetting dems
US press core really are uncouth....i bet they drink boxed wine.
What have they done? Asked Barr to explain why he forgot to include in his letter three weeks ago that he and Rosenstein didn’t agree with the legal theories of Mueller when deciding not to indict Trump for obstruction?
No its the way they shout over each other and during an answer. It is actually counterproductive to holding the individual to account.
It's worth noting that 2011 was itself a dreadful round of local elections for the Lib Dems, when they lost 1000 seats. They then lost another 500 four years later.
I guess the LDs will regain some of those losses but my experience (which is in London so we have no elections this year) is that they find it hard to climb back - my Council had a substantial LD presence before 2014 and they had controlled in the past but they lost all their seats during the coalition and have yet to regain any, even though there have been a few by-elections in favourable circumstances in the past few years. Activity seems to have dwindled to almost nothing in most wards.
Betting post. World snooker starts Saturday. First round draw just made. My tip for an upset is Luo Honghao to beat Shaun Murphy at 12/5 still available. Luo is ranked 91, but, the rankings are based on 2 years earnings. Luo is in his first year as a pro. He is 19 years old, and has beaten 3 higher ranked players this past week to qualify. Looks a good player already, and one who is improving. By contrast, Murphy has had a poor season, with back problems and sketchy form. A 19 frame contest won't be easy for him. Would still have Murphy as favourite for his experience, but anything over 2/1 looks excellent value to me. As ever DYOR.
The polls at the moment probably need a larger than usual pinch of salt. What's particularly unclear is how much momentum Farage will get. On the one hand, his launch certainly got plenty of coverage. On the other hand, at election time Brexit Party will be "another minor party that didn't stand last time" and probably get relatively limited TV coverage (what the print press will do is anyone's guess), unless the obvious interest in how he's doing gets extra coverage. With next to no local infrastructure, it's possible that he's already peaked, or that the bandwagon will gather speed. (Similar thoughts apply to ChUK, writ small.)
And there is still quite a bit of scope for confusion between Brexit and UKIP. How many voters appreciate that they are not one and the same?
But I think we can be fairly sure that CHUK will bomb - as I have said before, my MP is one of the Labour defectors and as far as I know no party members have followed him, they have no local structure and pretty much zero visibility at the local level. If they can't make an impact in their own constituencies than their chances at national level must be pretty dire.
So in W. Mids. and E. region, the working assumption should still be that the choice is Green vs. Lib.Dem.
I did read that in the W. Mids one should tactically vote L.Dem, in the E. region Green, based on 2014 results. In 2019, total L.D + Grn is probably higher so the advice may be different.
Green and L.Dems I think are on 10% and 9%. It might mean that Greens retain 3 MEPs and L.Dems get a few more. But in smaller EU seats 9% means a wasted vote.
6.1 million-plus angry people might be angrier still after this at parties that don't even suggest vote-swapping and at parties (Labour) that gave Britain a non-proportional PR system.
Does bombing make a difference? N.Ireland uses STV.
Betting post. World snooker starts Saturday. First round draw just made. My tip for an upset is Luo Honghao to beat Shaun Murphy at 12/5 still available. Luo is ranked 91, but, the rankings are based on 2 years earnings. Luo is in his first year as a pro. He is 19 years old, and has beaten 3 higher ranked players this past week to qualify. Looks a good player already, and one who is improving. By contrast, Murphy has had a poor season, with back problems and sketchy form. A 19 frame contest won't be easy for him. Would still have Murphy as favourite for his experience, but anything over 2/1 looks excellent value to me. As ever DYOR.
Seems worth it for £5.
If it doesn't come off, you can expect proceedings through your letterbox...
That's interesting for the EU one, one of the only recent polls showing G+LD+Chuk bigger than Brex+UKIP
It's only just bigger though, and we've got 5 lots of margin of error to add. I'd call it a statistical tie. Which it always seems to be whatever way you try to measure leave versus remain.
I'd forgotten among all the the many recent entertainments provided by the GOP, Bachmann's Liberace level camp husband is a therapist who recommends a 'pray away the gay' therapy.
1. The Lib Dems will recover to their position in 2011 2. Labour will do slightly better than in 2011, relative to the Conservatives, although their NEV will be well down on 2011 3. This will be a good year for Indpendents/Minor parties.
The number of seats has been reduced by 1100, compared to 2015. Without that, Conservative losses would be close to 1000.
The LDs took a real beating in 2011 losing 750 seats many of those won in the good times of the Major years and the okay-ish years of Blair and Brown. and then lost a further 350 in 2015. We aren't comparing like with like but to expect 1000 gains seems a big ask even in these times, I'd have thought 400-500 would represent a very good night for the party.
Labour did well in both 2011 and 2015 making gains - the 2011 gains were mostly off the LDs as memory serves as the losses of the Blair/Brown years were regained.
I certainly agree with your third point as I've said before - I expect some real surprises from Independent groups, many of whom are well organised and campaign effectively.
As for the Conservatives, they gained over 500 seats on the coat tails of Cameron's electoral majority but the current numbers look dreadful. The party polled 25% in 1995 which ended very badly for them but back then Labour were hoovering up the votes - this time it's much more diffused and fractured which will help the Conservatives hold seats. I still think 1000-1500 losses quite possible and some spectacular defeats or loss of control to Independents in the heart of England.
I believe there are no local by-elections today - or indeed next week. However on May 2nd there are at least 40; as well as the normal round of local elections.
Minor correction - there is one in Shropshire next week.
Comments
More interesting is that redactions are to protect 'ongoing matters'
World snooker starts Saturday. First round draw just made. My tip for an upset is Luo Honghao to beat Shaun Murphy at 12/5 still available.
Luo is ranked 91, but, the rankings are based on 2 years earnings. Luo is in his first year as a pro. He is 19 years old, and has beaten 3 higher ranked players this past week to qualify. Looks a good player already, and one who is improving.
By contrast, Murphy has had a poor season, with back problems and sketchy form. A 19 frame contest won't be easy for him.
Would still have Murphy as favourite for his experience, but anything over 2/1 looks excellent value to me.
As ever DYOR.
I did read that in the W. Mids one should tactically vote L.Dem, in the E. region Green, based on 2014 results. In 2019, total L.D + Grn is probably higher so the advice may be different.
Green and L.Dems I think are on 10% and 9%. It might mean that Greens retain 3 MEPs and L.Dems get a few more. But in smaller EU seats 9% means a wasted vote.
6.1 million-plus angry people might be angrier still after this at parties that don't even suggest vote-swapping and at parties (Labour) that gave Britain a non-proportional PR system.
Does bombing make a difference? N.Ireland uses STV.
If it doesn't come off, you can expect proceedings through your letterbox...
I'd forgotten among all the the many recent entertainments provided by the GOP, Bachmann's Liberace level camp husband is a therapist who recommends a 'pray away the gay' therapy.
Labour did well in both 2011 and 2015 making gains - the 2011 gains were mostly off the LDs as memory serves as the losses of the Blair/Brown years were regained.
I certainly agree with your third point as I've said before - I expect some real surprises from Independent groups, many of whom are well organised and campaign effectively.
As for the Conservatives, they gained over 500 seats on the coat tails of Cameron's electoral majority but the current numbers look dreadful. The party polled 25% in 1995 which ended very badly for them but back then Labour were hoovering up the votes - this time it's much more diffused and fractured which will help the Conservatives hold seats. I still think 1000-1500 losses quite possible and some spectacular defeats or loss of control to Independents in the heart of England.
NEW THREAD
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2002/apr/02/lords.uk