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SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited April 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UK Euro elections have been no guide to what will happen at the next general election

While everybody is getting over excited at the moment about the prospect of the May 23rd Euro elections we should remind ourselves and how they have been totally non indicative of what’s going to happen at the following general election

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Comments

  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    edited April 2019
    Uno - but on a record low turnout..
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited April 2019
    Second

    Like either Lab or UKIP or the Brexit Party or the LDs in the Euros. But not the Cons.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Second like Labour.

    FPT will any ERG MPs defect to the Brext Party? What if Hunt takes over as PM?
  • Freggles said:

    Second like Labour.

    FPT will any ERG MPs defect to the Brext Party? What if Hunt takes over as PM?

    That’s what the afternoon thread will be about.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Fourth! Like the Tories in the Euros.....
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Penddu said:

    Uno - but on a record low turnout..

    That is because Foxy's locked himself out of his phone.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    1994 under Beckett was a massive win.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    EU elections aren’t good for much at all.

    Like the EU parliament.

    Hence why stupid for the Cons to stand candidates.

    Getting all they deserved now - it’s a referendum on politicians now - “do you like being ignored Y/N”.

    A well deserved hammering for the blues.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Jonathan said:

    1994 under Beckett was a massive win.

    Under FPTP. Potentially Labour have been more reliant on FPTP to prevent their support fracturing than the Tories.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    TGOHF said:

    EU elections aren’t good for much at all.

    Like the EU parliament.

    Hence why stupid for the Cons to stand candidates.

    Getting all they deserved now - it’s a referendum on politicians now - “do you like being ignored Y/N”.

    A well deserved hammering for the blues.

    It’s a democratic system. Like the PCCs.

    You may not care but it is, you know, the foundation of modern Western democracies.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    EU elections aren’t good for much at all.

    Like the EU parliament.

    Hence why stupid for the Cons to stand candidates.

    Getting all they deserved now - it’s a referendum on politicians now - “do you like being ignored Y/N”.

    A well deserved hammering for the blues.

    It’s a democratic system. Like the PCCs.

    You may not care but it is, you know, the foundation of modern Western democracies.
    I think it’s fantastic - a timely opportunity for voters to again tell the career politicians to F off.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited April 2019
    If I may say so, I think this is a safer thread than the last. You can't really pull together the May 26th results to determine the state of the country in terms of Leave vs Remain. Some people will vote for the traditional party no matter what happens. The other thing which might totally screw that approach is that I suspect most leave Tories won't vote for them whereas a number of Remaining tories will, so the Tory vote won't all be leavers. There are also still a number of Labour leavers who would never vote for another party. So it all becomes terribly messy if you pit those two parties on opposite sides. The vaguest but safest possibility would be to strip out Lab-Con and go for:

    GRN + TIG + LD + SNP vs BRX + UKIP + DUP

    But it's still messy.

    Good GRIEF. That latest ComRes VI out just now with the Tories on 23%, down 9%!!!! Blimey.

    In other news, did anyone take up my tip over a month ago to bet on Spurs or Ajax at odds over 25-1 (Ajax were a ridiculous 40-1 at the time)? Well, one of them is going into the CL final and I'd call that a decent punt. Anything could happen in Madrid on June 01st.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    edited April 2019
    Labour did however win a handsome victory in 1989, the penultimate election to be held under FPTP, reinforcing the argument in the header that they don't mean much for general elections.

    They also won in 1994, which was as far as I can see the only Euro election to prove a reasonable barometer of what would happen at the next election.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    TGOHF said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    EU elections aren’t good for much at all.

    Like the EU parliament.

    Hence why stupid for the Cons to stand candidates.

    Getting all they deserved now - it’s a referendum on politicians now - “do you like being ignored Y/N”.

    A well deserved hammering for the blues.

    It’s a democratic system. Like the PCCs.

    You may not care but it is, you know, the foundation of modern Western democracies.
    I think it’s fantastic - a timely opportunity for voters to again tell the career politicians to F off.
    You're right. It's time for people like you, @TGOHF, to step up and lead us.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    EU elections aren’t good for much at all.

    Like the EU parliament.

    Hence why stupid for the Cons to stand candidates.

    Getting all they deserved now - it’s a referendum on politicians now - “do you like being ignored Y/N”.

    A well deserved hammering for the blues.

    It’s a democratic system. Like the PCCs.

    You may not care but it is, you know, the foundation of modern Western democracies.
    Party list systems are about as democratic as elections to the Supreme Soviet.

    Or perhaps a better analogy would be elections in the American South 1866-1948, where all the Democratic candidate had to do was turn up not looking too completely thick and crazy to win.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    EU elections aren’t good for much at all.

    Like the EU parliament.

    Hence why stupid for the Cons to stand candidates.

    Getting all they deserved now - it’s a referendum on politicians now - “do you like being ignored Y/N”.

    A well deserved hammering for the blues.

    It’s a democratic system. Like the PCCs.

    You may not care but it is, you know, the foundation of modern Western democracies.
    Party list systems are about as democratic as elections to the Supreme Soviet.

    Or perhaps a better analogy would be elections in the American South 1866-1948, where all the Democratic candidate had to do was turn up not looking too completely thick and crazy to win.
    They are elections with a party attached as an option on the ballot paper. Seems fairly democratic to me. No student of Soviet-era politics (The Americans apart) but I have to believe that it is a different order of democracy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    The Euro elections if the Brexit Party win will be largely a Tory protest vote we are still in the EU, Yougov had 49% of 2017 Tories saying they would vote Brexit Party yesterday. If those voters return to the Tories then that will be less of an issue, if we are still in the EU by the next general election though many of them will stay and Corbyn will probably be PM (with an outside chance of Farage even getting to Number 10).

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    ydoethur said:

    Labour did however win a handsome victory in 1989, the penultimate election to be held under FPTP, reinforcing the argument in the header that they don't mean much for general elections.

    They also won in 1994, which was as far as I can see the only Euro election to prove a reasonable barometer of what would happen at the next election.

    True but those two elections were under FPTP with no UKIP and Beckett was Labour leader in 1994
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    ydoethur said:

    Labour did however win a handsome victory in 1989, the penultimate election to be held under FPTP, reinforcing the argument in the header that they don't mean much for general elections.

    They also won in 1994, which was as far as I can see the only Euro election to prove a reasonable barometer of what would happen at the next election.

    1994 was held under FPTP not the current system
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited April 2019
    “In 2014 Farage’s UKIP came out top with 27% of the vote winning most MEPs. This was, of course, no indicator to what would happen at GE2015 when the party just picked up one seat – Douglas Carswell’s and losing the other one it held. Carswell later quit UKIP.”

    🤔

    UKIP got 13% (+10) in the 2015 GE, with 3.8m votes after winning the Euros with 4.3m in 2014. I’d say that was a fair indicator of increasing Eurosceptism

    Leave winning the 2016 referendum was only such a surprise because the politically engaged downplayed both results IMO
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Freggles said:

    Second like Labour.

    FPT will any ERG MPs defect to the Brext Party? What if Hunt takes over as PM?

    Hunt is a weathervane who would back No Deal if he thought it would win him the Tory leadership, if a committed Remainer like Amber Rudd or David Liddington or Philip Hammond succeeded May as PM though then you might see ERG defections to the Brexit Party
  • TGOHF said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    EU elections aren’t good for much at all.

    Like the EU parliament.

    Hence why stupid for the Cons to stand candidates.

    Getting all they deserved now - it’s a referendum on politicians now - “do you like being ignored Y/N”.

    A well deserved hammering for the blues.

    It’s a democratic system. Like the PCCs.

    You may not care but it is, you know, the foundation of modern Western democracies.
    I think it’s fantastic - a timely opportunity for voters to again tell the career politicians to F off.
    You split an infinitive, Sir.

    And don't try to blame Brexit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    If the Brexit Party win Northern Leave seats though ironically that could be good for May as it could focus the minds of some Northern Labour MPs to finally back the Withdrawal Agreement
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    In other news, did anyone take up my tip over a month ago to bet on Spurs or Ajax at odds over 25-1 (Ajax were a ridiculous 40-1 at the time)? Well, one of them is going into the CL final and I'd call that a decent punt. Anything could happen in Madrid on June 01st.

    Good tipping. I'd backed Spurs for the FA Cup on the basis they'd not be competitive in the PL or CL. :(
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    TOPPING said:

    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    EU elections aren’t good for much at all.

    Like the EU parliament.

    Hence why stupid for the Cons to stand candidates.

    Getting all they deserved now - it’s a referendum on politicians now - “do you like being ignored Y/N”.

    A well deserved hammering for the blues.

    It’s a democratic system. Like the PCCs.

    You may not care but it is, you know, the foundation of modern Western democracies.
    Party list systems are about as democratic as elections to the Supreme Soviet.

    Or perhaps a better analogy would be elections in the American South 1866-1948, where all the Democratic candidate had to do was turn up not looking too completely thick and crazy to win.
    They are elections with a party attached as an option on the ballot paper. Seems fairly democratic to me. No student of Soviet-era politics (The Americans apart) but I have to believe that it is a different order of democracy.
    Soviet systems were sort of similar. They were elections with a candidate attached as an option (until Gorby allowed independents to stand).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    They haven't been in the past.

    I don't expect them to be next time, but we should remember we live in turbulent political times. Complacency is one of the reasons Remain lost.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    TGOHF said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    EU elections aren’t good for much at all.

    Like the EU parliament.

    Hence why stupid for the Cons to stand candidates.

    Getting all they deserved now - it’s a referendum on politicians now - “do you like being ignored Y/N”.

    A well deserved hammering for the blues.

    It’s a democratic system. Like the PCCs.

    You may not care but it is, you know, the foundation of modern Western democracies.
    I think it’s fantastic - a timely opportunity for voters to again tell the career politicians to F off.
    Farage is nothing but a venal career politician.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    ydoethur said:

    Labour did however win a handsome victory in 1989, the penultimate election to be held under FPTP, reinforcing the argument in the header that they don't mean much for general elections.

    They also won in 1994, which was as far as I can see the only Euro election to prove a reasonable barometer of what would happen at the next election.

    1994 was held under FPTP not the current system
    As I noted when I described 1989 as the 'penultimate' set under FPTP.

    The point I was trying to make is that Euro elections are regardless of the system a very bad barometer for general elections, 1994 under rather special circumstances excepted.

    Has anyone done an analysis of the locals? Because I suspect that would show a similar trend.

    I remember Tony King was asked about this when the Tories had had a reasonable night in the locals and yet were languishing on about 28% in the polls. He said the explanation was simple - polls asked how people would vote in a GENERAL election, whereas in local and pan-national elections they have low turnout and a variety of complex reasons for voting as they do. So he added that they are an extremely unreliable guide to GE performance.

    Not that the opinion polls have covered themselves in glory since 2005 either, of course.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    If I may say so, I think this is a safer thread than the last. You can't really pull together the May 26th results to determine the state of the country in terms of Leave vs Remain. Some people will vote for the traditional party no matter what happens. The other thing which might totally screw that approach is that I suspect most leave Tories won't vote for them whereas a number of Remaining tories will, so the Tory vote won't all be leavers. There are also still a number of Labour leavers who would never vote for another party. So it all becomes terribly messy if you pit those two parties on opposite sides. The vaguest but safest possibility would be to strip out Lab-Con and go for:

    GRN + TIG + LD + SNP vs BRX + UKIP + DUP

    But it's still messy.

    Good GRIEF. That latest ComRes VI out just now with the Tories on 23%, down 9%!!!! Blimey.

    In other news, did anyone take up my tip over a month ago to bet on Spurs or Ajax at odds over 25-1 (Ajax were a ridiculous 40-1 at the time)? Well, one of them is going into the CL final and I'd call that a decent punt. Anything could happen in Madrid on June 01st.

    Yes I did Ajax - so thanks for that.

    On the Euros I think we should keep it simpler than your suggestion. DUP have a sectarian vote and the Greens have the eco vote. Let's take them out.

    Just go BREXIT + UKIP versus LD + CHANGE.

    Then if one side of that equation EASILY beats the other - conclusions can be drawn.

    If not, best not to.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Well.

    1999 & 2004. Government receives normal mid-term election defeat -> Government receives normal swingback for general election.
    2009. Labour drop to third -> they're out of government at the next general election.
    2014. UKIP top the polls -> the Tories win their first majority for 23 years with a clear promise of a referendum to win support from UKIP voters.
    2019. Brexit Party top the polls?/Tories drop to third? -> the Tories under a new hard Brexit leader win a majority on a clear promise of no compromise with Brussels? Tories out of government at the next general election?

    I'm sure I can come up with a post general election reasoning for how it was all foreshadowed by the EU elections.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    isam said:

    “In 2014 Farage’s UKIP came out top with 27% of the vote winning most MEPs. This was, of course, no indicator to what would happen at GE2015 when the party just picked up one seat – Douglas Carswell’s and losing the other one it held. Carswell later quit UKIP.”

    🤔

    UKIP got 13% (+10) in the 2015 GE, with 3.8m votes after winning the Euros with 4.3m in 2014. I’d say that was a fair indicator of increasing Eurosceptism

    Leave winning the 2016 referendum was only such a surprise because the politically engaged downplayed both results IMO

    I agree, but I think it over egging it to say the 2016 result was a surprise. The polls in the run up had the result as a coin toss, with a main PB theme of whether online polls were as reliable as phone polls. I think that discussion is concluded.

    As turnout was roughly double in 2015 GE to Euros 2014, I suspect the votes were from the same 3.8 million people.

    In these Euros, turnout will be key, but likely to be low overall. People are just sick of Brexit, so only the fanatics on each side will turnout.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    EU elections aren’t good for much at all.

    Like the EU parliament.

    Hence why stupid for the Cons to stand candidates.

    Getting all they deserved now - it’s a referendum on politicians now - “do you like being ignored Y/N”.

    A well deserved hammering for the blues.

    It’s a democratic system. Like the PCCs.

    You may not care but it is, you know, the foundation of modern Western democracies.
    Party list systems are about as democratic as elections to the Supreme Soviet.

    Or perhaps a better analogy would be elections in the American South 1866-1948, where all the Democratic candidate had to do was turn up not looking too completely thick and crazy to win.
    They are elections with a party attached as an option on the ballot paper. Seems fairly democratic to me. No student of Soviet-era politics (The Americans apart) but I have to believe that it is a different order of democracy.
    Soviet systems were sort of similar. They were elections with a candidate attached as an option (until Gorby allowed independents to stand).
    So perfectly democratic in other words. Where is the democratic violation?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It's a free hit. However, this time feels very different from previous occasions. In the past it has felt like a protest. This time it feels like a mutiny.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    Well.

    1999 & 2004. Government receives normal mid-term election defeat -> Government receives normal swingback for general election.
    2009. Labour drop to third -> they're out of government at the next general election.
    2014. UKIP top the polls -> the Tories win their first majority for 23 years with a clear promise of a referendum to win support from UKIP voters.
    2019. Brexit Party top the polls?/Tories drop to third? -> the Tories under a new hard Brexit leader win a majority on a clear promise of no compromise with Brussels? Tories out of government at the next general election?

    I'm sure I can come up with a post general election reasoning for how it was all foreshadowed by the EU elections.

    Indeed, if the Brexit Party win the European elections ironically it actually increases the chances of the Withdrawal Agreement finally passing and a hard Brexiteer like Boris or Raab succeeding May.

    If Labour won the European elections though that increases the chances of EUref2 or revoke
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    edited April 2019
    TOPPING said:

    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    EU elections aren’t good for much at all.

    Like the EU parliament.

    Hence why stupid for the Cons to stand candidates.

    Getting all they deserved now - it’s a referendum on politicians now - “do you like being ignored Y/N”.

    A well deserved hammering for the blues.

    It’s a democratic system. Like the PCCs.

    You may not care but it is, you know, the foundation of modern Western democracies.
    Party list systems are about as democratic as elections to the Supreme Soviet.

    Or perhaps a better analogy would be elections in the American South 1866-1948, where all the Democratic candidate had to do was turn up not looking too completely thick and crazy to win.
    They are elections with a party attached as an option on the ballot paper. Seems fairly democratic to me. No student of Soviet-era politics (The Americans apart) but I have to believe that it is a different order of democracy.
    Soviet systems were sort of similar. They were elections with a candidate attached as an option (until Gorby allowed independents to stand).
    So perfectly democratic in other words. Where is the democratic violation?
    Only members of the Communist party could vote for the candidate. Everyone else just had to vote (for a given value of 'vote') for the party. And only one party was allowed to stand until I think 1988 (don't quote without checking).
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited April 2019
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    “In 2014 Farage’s UKIP came out top with 27% of the vote winning most MEPs. This was, of course, no indicator to what would happen at GE2015 when the party just picked up one seat – Douglas Carswell’s and losing the other one it held. Carswell later quit UKIP.”

    🤔

    UKIP got 13% (+10) in the 2015 GE, with 3.8m votes after winning the Euros with 4.3m in 2014. I’d say that was a fair indicator of increasing Eurosceptism

    Leave winning the 2016 referendum was only such a surprise because the politically engaged downplayed both results IMO

    I agree, but I think it over egging it to say the 2016 result was a surprise. The polls in the run up had the result as a coin toss, with a main PB theme of whether online polls were as reliable as phone polls. I think that discussion is concluded.

    As turnout was roughly double in 2015 GE to Euros 2014, I suspect the votes were from the same 3.8 million people.

    In these Euros, turnout will be key, but likely to be low overall. People are just sick of Brexit, so only the fanatics on each side will turnout.
    Yes they probably were the same people, that’s the point!

    I have to disagree about the referendum result not being a surprise, Leave were 14/1 on the day, and never shorter than 11/8ish during the campaign.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Labour did however win a handsome victory in 1989, the penultimate election to be held under FPTP, reinforcing the argument in the header that they don't mean much for general elections.

    They also won in 1994, which was as far as I can see the only Euro election to prove a reasonable barometer of what would happen at the next election.

    1994 was held under FPTP not the current system
    As I noted when I described 1989 as the 'penultimate' set under FPTP.

    The point I was trying to make is that Euro elections are regardless of the system a very bad barometer for general elections, 1994 under rather special circumstances excepted.

    Has anyone done an analysis of the locals? Because I suspect that would show a similar trend.

    I remember Tony King was asked about this when the Tories had had a reasonable night in the locals and yet were languishing on about 28% in the polls. He said the explanation was simple - polls asked how people would vote in a GENERAL election, whereas in local and pan-national elections they have low turnout and a variety of complex reasons for voting as they do. So he added that they are an extremely unreliable guide to GE performance.

    Not that the opinion polls have covered themselves in glory since 2005 either, of course.
    Blair won big victories in the 1995 and 1996 locals and Cameron in the 2008 and 2009 locals so locals are probably a better guide than Euros to the next PM as UKIP, Brexit Party etc do not get an exaggerated performance
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    kinabalu said:

    If I may say so, I think this is a safer thread than the last. You can't really pull together the May 26th results to determine the state of the country in terms of Leave vs Remain. Some people will vote for the traditional party no matter what happens. The other thing which might totally screw that approach is that I suspect most leave Tories won't vote for them whereas a number of Remaining tories will, so the Tory vote won't all be leavers. There are also still a number of Labour leavers who would never vote for another party. So it all becomes terribly messy if you pit those two parties on opposite sides. The vaguest but safest possibility would be to strip out Lab-Con and go for:

    GRN + TIG + LD + SNP vs BRX + UKIP + DUP

    But it's still messy.

    Good GRIEF. That latest ComRes VI out just now with the Tories on 23%, down 9%!!!! Blimey.

    In other news, did anyone take up my tip over a month ago to bet on Spurs or Ajax at odds over 25-1 (Ajax were a ridiculous 40-1 at the time)? Well, one of them is going into the CL final and I'd call that a decent punt. Anything could happen in Madrid on June 01st.

    Yes I did Ajax - so thanks for that.

    On the Euros I think we should keep it simpler than your suggestion. DUP have a sectarian vote and the Greens have the eco vote. Let's take them out.

    Just go BREXIT + UKIP versus LD + CHANGE.

    Then if one side of that equation EASILY beats the other - conclusions can be drawn.

    If not, best not to.
    I don't think you can take the Greens out, and Labours position is likely to be sufficiently ambiguous to retain mainy Remainers. Indeed there will be a core Tory Remainer vote too.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Labour did however win a handsome victory in 1989, the penultimate election to be held under FPTP, reinforcing the argument in the header that they don't mean much for general elections.

    They also won in 1994, which was as far as I can see the only Euro election to prove a reasonable barometer of what would happen at the next election.

    1994 was held under FPTP not the current system
    As I noted when I described 1989 as the 'penultimate' set under FPTP.

    The point I was trying to make is that Euro elections are regardless of the system a very bad barometer for general elections, 1994 under rather special circumstances excepted.

    Has anyone done an analysis of the locals? Because I suspect that would show a similar trend.

    I remember Tony King was asked about this when the Tories had had a reasonable night in the locals and yet were languishing on about 28% in the polls. He said the explanation was simple - polls asked how people would vote in a GENERAL election, whereas in local and pan-national elections they have low turnout and a variety of complex reasons for voting as they do. So he added that they are an extremely unreliable guide to GE performance.

    Not that the opinion polls have covered themselves in glory since 2005 either, of course.
    Blair won big victories in the 1995 and 1996 locals and Cameron in the 2008 and 2009 locals so locals are probably a better guide than Euros to the next PM as UKIP, Brexit Party etc do not get an exaggerated performance
    So did Hague, Duncan Smith and Kinnock.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    EU elections aren’t good for much at all.

    Like the EU parliament.

    Hence why stupid for the Cons to stand candidates.

    Getting all they deserved now - it’s a referendum on politicians now - “do you like being ignored Y/N”.

    A well deserved hammering for the blues.

    It’s a democratic system. Like the PCCs.

    You may not care but it is, you know, the foundation of modern Western democracies.
    Party list systems are about as democratic as elections to the Supreme Soviet.

    Or perhaps a better analogy would be elections in the American South 1866-1948, where all the Democratic candidate had to do was turn up not looking too completely thick and crazy to win.
    They are elections with a party attached as an option on the ballot paper. Seems fairly democratic to me. No student of Soviet-era politics (The Americans apart) but I have to believe that it is a different order of democracy.
    Soviet systems were sort of similar. They were elections with a candidate attached as an option (until Gorby allowed independents to stand).
    So perfectly democratic in other words. Where is the democratic violation?
    Only members of the Communist party could vote for the candidate. Everyone else just had to vote (for a given value of 'vote') for the party. And only one party was allowed to stand until I think 1988 (don't quote without checking).
    And how is that comprable with the Euro elections?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Labour did however win a handsome victory in 1989, the penultimate election to be held under FPTP, reinforcing the argument in the header that they don't mean much for general elections.

    They also won in 1994, which was as far as I can see the only Euro election to prove a reasonable barometer of what would happen at the next election.

    1994 was held under FPTP not the current system
    As I noted when I described 1989 as the 'penultimate' set under FPTP.

    The point I was trying to make is that Euro elections are regardless of the system a very bad barometer for general elections, 1994 under rather special circumstances excepted.

    Has anyone done an analysis of the locals? Because I suspect that would show a similar trend.

    I remember Tony King was asked about this when the Tories had had a reasonable night in the locals and yet were languishing on about 28% in the polls. He said the explanation was simple - polls asked how people would vote in a GENERAL election, whereas in local and pan-national elections they have low turnout and a variety of complex reasons for voting as they do. So he added that they are an extremely unreliable guide to GE performance.

    Not that the opinion polls have covered themselves in glory since 2005 either, of course.
    Blair won big victories in the 1995 and 1996 locals and Cameron in the 2008 and 2009 locals so locals are probably a better guide than Euros to the next PM as UKIP, Brexit Party etc do not get an exaggerated performance
    So did Hague, Duncan Smith and Kinnock.
    Not with the leads Blair and Cameron did
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    “In 2014 Farage’s UKIP came out top with 27% of the vote winning most MEPs. This was, of course, no indicator to what would happen at GE2015 when the party just picked up one seat – Douglas Carswell’s and losing the other one it held. Carswell later quit UKIP.”

    🤔

    UKIP got 13% (+10) in the 2015 GE, with 3.8m votes after winning the Euros with 4.3m in 2014. I’d say that was a fair indicator of increasing Eurosceptism

    Leave winning the 2016 referendum was only such a surprise because the politically engaged downplayed both results IMO

    I agree, but I think it over egging it to say the 2016 result was a surprise. The polls in the run up had the result as a coin toss, with a main PB theme of whether online polls were as reliable as phone polls. I think that discussion is concluded.

    As turnout was roughly double in 2015 GE to Euros 2014, I suspect the votes were from the same 3.8 million people.

    In these Euros, turnout will be key, but likely to be low overall. People are just sick of Brexit, so only the fanatics on each side will turnout.
    Leave were 14/1 on the day, and never shorter than 11/8ish during the campaign.
    And another big thankyouverymuch to @AndyJS.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    TOPPING said:

    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    EU elections aren’t good for much at all.

    Like the EU parliament.

    Hence why stupid for the Cons to stand candidates.

    Getting all they deserved now - it’s a referendum on politicians now - “do you like being ignored Y/N”.

    A well deserved hammering for the blues.

    It’s a democratic system. Like the PCCs.

    You may not care but it is, you know, the foundation of modern Western democracies.
    Party list systems are about as democratic as elections to the Supreme Soviet.

    Or perhaps a better analogy would be elections in the American South 1866-1948, where all the Democratic candidate had to do was turn up not looking too completely thick and crazy to win.
    They are elections with a party attached as an option on the ballot paper. Seems fairly democratic to me. No student of Soviet-era politics (The Americans apart) but I have to believe that it is a different order of democracy.
    Soviet systems were sort of similar. They were elections with a candidate attached as an option (until Gorby allowed independents to stand).
    So perfectly democratic in other words. Where is the democratic violation?
    Only members of the Communist party could vote for the candidate. Everyone else just had to vote (for a given value of 'vote') for the party. And only one party was allowed to stand until I think 1988 (don't quote without checking).
    And how is that comprable with the Euro elections?
    The party decides the candidates. So you cannot vote for a candidate. Only for a party.

    That therefore is the precise opposite of the Soviet system. There you could vote for a candidate - the party had been decided already.
  • Brexit = Samsung folding phone. Though the Note 7 might be more apt.

    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1118780866220699649?s=21
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    Brexit = Samsung folding phone. Though the Note 7 might be more apt.

    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1118780866220699649?s=21

    Not so much nota bene as not bending?

    I'll get my coat.

    Have a good morning.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    The Samsung story seems a bit odd. Surely they would've/should've done a bucketload of testing?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    EU elections aren’t good for much at all.

    Like the EU parliament.

    Hence why stupid for the Cons to stand candidates.

    Getting all they deserved now - it’s a referendum on politicians now - “do you like being ignored Y/N”.

    A well deserved hammering for the blues.

    It’s a democratic system. Like the PCCs.

    You may not care but it is, you know, the foundation of modern Western democracies.
    Party list systems are about as democratic as elections to the Supreme Soviet.

    Or perhaps a better analogy would be elections in the American South 1866-1948, where all the Democratic candidate had to do was turn up not looking too completely thick and crazy to win.
    They are elections with a party attached as an option on the ballot paper. Seems fairly democratic to me. No student of Soviet-era politics (The Americans apart) but I have to believe that it is a different order of democracy.
    Soviet systems were sort of similar. They were elections with a candidate attached as an option (until Gorby allowed independents to stand).
    So perfectly democratic in other words. Where is the democratic violation?
    Only members of the Communist party could vote for the candidate. Everyone else just had to vote (for a given value of 'vote') for the party. And only one party was allowed to stand until I think 1988 (don't quote without checking).
    And how is that comprable with the Euro elections?
    The party decides the candidates. So you cannot vote for a candidate. Only for a party.

    That therefore is the precise opposite of the Soviet system. There you could vote for a candidate - the party had been decided already.
    But you said it was the same ("about as democratic") as the Soviet system.
  • The Samsung story seems a bit odd. Surely they would've/should've done a bucketload of testing?

    These are the people who gave the world the exploding Note 7.

    Samsung are awful. They release improperly tested phones to the world.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785
    edited April 2019
    InitiaI work up seat count based on last 4 polls and the regional break downs last time, just to get the model working.

    I'm sure this will develop as the campaign progresses, as yesterday's YouGov signals, and I delve deeper into the current dodgy subsamples. In reality, the YouGov already says the Labour/Brexit battle will be much closer.

    Lab 28% 27 (4 NW, Lon, 3 WM, Yorks, 2 EM, NE, SE, Wal, Sco, East, 1 SW)
    Brexit 16% 13 (2 WM, SE, East, 1 EM, NE, NW, Yorks, Lon, SW, Wal)
    Con 18% 12 (3 SE, 2 East, 1 EM, WM, NW, Yorks, Lon, SW, Scot)
    UKIP 10% 7 (EM, WM, NW, Yorks, SE, SW, East)
    LD 9% 4 (NW, Lon, SE, SW)
    Green 7% 3 (Lon, SE, SW)
    SNP 3
    PC, DUP, UUP, SF 1
    ChUK 5% 0



  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Eagles, which should've been a lesson on what not to do.

    And if the problems are happening after only a few days, even a small amount of testing should've shown up the weakness.

    Daft sods.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    edited April 2019
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    “In 2014 Farage’s UKIP came out top with 27% of the vote winning most MEPs. This was, of course, no indicator to what would happen at GE2015 when the party just picked up one seat – Douglas Carswell’s and losing the other one it held. Carswell later quit UKIP.”

    🤔

    UKIP got 13% (+10) in the 2015 GE, with 3.8m votes after winning the Euros with 4.3m in 2014. I’d say that was a fair indicator of increasing Eurosceptism

    Leave winning the 2016 referendum was only such a surprise because the politically engaged downplayed both results IMO

    I agree, but I think it over egging it to say the 2016 result was a surprise. The polls in the run up had the result as a coin toss, with a main PB theme of whether online polls were as reliable as phone polls. I think that discussion is concluded.

    As turnout was roughly double in 2015 GE to Euros 2014, I suspect the votes were from the same 3.8 million people.

    In these Euros, turnout will be key, but likely to be low overall. People are just sick of Brexit, so only the fanatics on each side will turnout.
    Yes they probably were the same people, that’s the point!

    I have to disagree about the referendum result not being a surprise, Leave were 14/1 on the day, and never shorter than 11/8ish during the campaign.
    11/8 is hardly long odds, and the 14/1 on the day was a short lived phenomenon, perhaps based on an illicit and innacurate exit poll. Views were perhaps also swayed by 2 late polls for Remain, while in reality the polls that took place a couple of weeks earlier were more accurate. It may well be that on the day votes were for Remain, postal for Leave, something that exit polls may continue to struggle with. Those polls are laid out in this header table.


    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/22/two-massive-poll-boosts-for-remain-with-voting-starting-in-less-than-nine-hours/

    The problem with polling is that it is way open to perception bias, people see what they want to see, a challenge for any political punter. I too have fallen in that trap at times, but made a profit on the night because I thought Leave better value in a coin toss.




  • Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    “In 2014 Farage’s UKIP came out top with 27% of the vote winning most MEPs. This was, of course, no indicator to what would happen at GE2015 when the party just picked up one seat – Douglas Carswell’s and losing the other one it held. Carswell later quit UKIP.”

    🤔

    UKIP got 13% (+10) in the 2015 GE, with 3.8m votes after winning the Euros with 4.3m in 2014. I’d say that was a fair indicator of increasing Eurosceptism

    Leave winning the 2016 referendum was only such a surprise because the politically engaged downplayed both results IMO

    I agree, but I think it over egging it to say the 2016 result was a surprise. The polls in the run up had the result as a coin toss, with a main PB theme of whether online polls were as reliable as phone polls. I think that discussion is concluded.

    As turnout was roughly double in 2015 GE to Euros 2014, I suspect the votes were from the same 3.8 million people.

    In these Euros, turnout will be key, but likely to be low overall. People are just sick of Brexit, so only the fanatics on each side will turnout.
    Yes they probably were the same people, that’s the point!

    I have to disagree about the referendum result not being a surprise, Leave were 14/1 on the day, and never shorter than 11/8ish during the campaign.
    11/8 is hardly long odds, and the 14/1 on the day was a short lived phenomenon, perhaps based on an illicit and innacurate exit poll. Views were perhaps also swayed by 2 late polls for Remain, while in reality the polls that took place a couple of weeks earlier were more accurate. It may well be that on the day votes were for Remain, postal for Leave, something that exit polls may continue to struggle with. Those polls are laid out in this header table.


    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/22/two-massive-poll-boosts-for-remain-with-voting-starting-in-less-than-nine-hours/

    The problem with polling is that it is way open to perception bias, people see what they want to see, a challenge for any political punter. I too have fallen in that trap at times, but made a profit on the night because I thought Leave better value in a coin toss.




    The 14/1 was just after Nigel Farage conceded defeat at circa 10:20pm.

    Further proof that Farage knows nothing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Brexit = Samsung folding phone. Though the Note 7 might be more apt.

    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1118780866220699649?s=21

    Prohibitively expensive, and falls apart after a day.
    Sounds about right.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    “In 2014 Farage’s UKIP came out top with 27% of the vote winning most MEPs. This was, of course, no indicator to what would happen at GE2015 when the party just picked up one seat – Douglas Carswell’s and losing the other one it held. Carswell later quit UKIP.”

    🤔

    UKIP got 13% (+10) in the 2015 GE, with 3.8m votes after winning the Euros with 4.3m in 2014. I’d say that was a fair indicator of increasing Eurosceptism

    Leave winning the 2016 referendum was only such a surprise because the politically engaged downplayed both results IMO

    I agree, but I think it over egging it to say the 2016 result was a surprise. The polls in the run up had the result as a coin toss, with a main PB theme of whether online polls were as reliable as phone polls. I think that discussion is concluded.

    As turnout was roughly double in 2015 GE to Euros 2014, I suspect the votes were from the same 3.8 million people.

    In these Euros, turnout will be key, but likely to be low overall. People are just sick of Brexit, so only the fanatics on each side will turnout.
    Yes they probably were the same people, that’s the point!

    I have to disagree about the referendum result not being a surprise, Leave were 14/1 on the day, and never shorter than 11/8ish during the campaign.
    11/8 is hardly long odds, and the 14/1 on the day was a short lived phenomenon, perhaps based on an illicit and innacurate exit poll. Views were perhaps also swayed by 2 late polls for Remain, while in reality the polls that took place a couple of weeks earlier were more accurate. It may well be that on the day votes were for Remain, postal for Leave, something that exit polls may continue to struggle with. Those polls are laid out in this header table.


    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/22/two-massive-poll-boosts-for-remain-with-voting-starting-in-less-than-nine-hours/

    The problem with polling is that it is way open to perception bias, people see what they want to see, a challenge for any political punter. I too have fallen in that trap at times, but made a profit on the night because I thought Leave better value in a coin toss.




    Haha!!!

    11/8 was the shortest it ever was (the morning of Jo Cox’s murder)... for most of the campaign Leave was a lot bigger (Remain was tipped as a value bet on here at 1/4)

    But if you don’t want to think of a big odds on shot getting turned over as a surprise, it’s down to you 🙄
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    If you're still in search of metaphors, the new discipline of urine archaeology...
    https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/04/10000-year-old-urine-holds-clues-domestication/587260/
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    “In 2014 Farage’s UKIP came out top with 27% of the vote winning most MEPs. This was, of course, no indicator to what would happen at GE2015 when the party just picked up one seat – Douglas Carswell’s and losing the other one it held. Carswell later quit UKIP.”

    🤔

    UKIP got 13% (+10) in the 2015 GE, with 3.8m votes after winning the Euros with 4.3m in 2014. I’d say that was a fair indicator of increasing Eurosceptism

    Leave winning the 2016 referendum was only such a surprise because the politically engaged downplayed both results IMO

    I agree, but I think it over egging it to say the 2016 result was a surprise. The polls in the run up had the result as a coin toss, with a main PB theme of whether online polls were as reliable as phone polls. I think that discussion is concluded.

    As turnout was roughly double in 2015 GE to Euros 2014, I suspect the votes were from the same 3.8 million people.

    In these Euros, turnout will be key, but likely to be low overall. People are just sick of Brexit, so only the fanatics on each side will turnout.
    Yes they probably were the same people, that’s the point!

    I have to disagree about the referendum result not being a surprise, Leave were 14/1 on the day, and never shorter than 11/8ish during the campaign.
    Polls began to turn some way out from polling day.

    eg https://standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-poll-most-brits-do-want-to-leave-one-week-to-go-before-eu-referendum-vote-a3273141.html
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    “In 2014 Farage’s UKIP came out top with 27% of the vote winning most MEPs. This was, of course, no indicator to what would happen at GE2015 when the party just picked up one seat – Douglas Carswell’s and losing the other one it held. Carswell later quit UKIP.”

    🤔

    UKIP got 13% (+10) in the 2015 GE, with 3.8m votes after winning the Euros with 4.3m in 2014. I’d say that was a fair indicator of increasing Eurosceptism

    Leave winning the 2016 referendum was only such a surprise because the politically engaged downplayed both results IMO

    I agree, but I think it over egging it to say the 2016 result was a surprise. The polls in the run up had the result as a coin toss, with a main PB theme of whether online polls were as reliable as phone polls. I think that discussion is concluded.

    As turnout was roughly double in 2015 GE to Euros 2014, I suspect the votes were from the same 3.8 million people.

    In these Euros, turnout will be key, but likely to be low overall. People are just sick of Brexit, so only the fanatics on each side will turnout.
    Yes they probably were the same people, that’s the point!

    I have to disagree about the referendum result not being a surprise, Leave were 14/1 on the day, and never shorter than 11/8ish during the campaign.
    11/8 is hardly long odds, and the 14/1 on the day was a short lived phenomenon, perhaps based on an illicit and innacurate exit poll. Views were perhaps also swayed by 2 late polls for Remain, while in reality the polls that took place a couple of weeks earlier were more accurate. It may well be that on the day votes were for Remain, postal for Leave, something that exit polls may continue to struggle with. Those polls are laid out in this header table.


    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/22/two-massive-poll-boosts-for-remain-with-voting-starting-in-less-than-nine-hours/

    The problem with polling is that it is way open to perception bias, people see what they want to see, a challenge for any political punter. I too have fallen in that trap at times, but made a profit on the night because I thought Leave better value in a coin toss.




    Haha!!!

    11/8 was the shortest it ever was (the morning of Jo Cox’s murder)... for most of the campaign Leave was a lot bigger (Remain was tipped as a value bet on here at 1/4)

    But if you don’t want to think of a big odds on shot getting turned over as a surprise, it’s down to you 🙄
    I wasn't surprised, just disappointed, but I had a good night on the betting, even before the famous spreadsheet. The race was clearly close.

    I bet on Out in the Sindy ref because it seemed good value too, but there I was wrong.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    “In 2014 Farage’s UKIP came out top with 27% of the vote winning most MEPs. This was, of course, no indicator to what would happen at GE2015 when the party just picked up one seat – Douglas Carswell’s and losing the other one it held. Carswell later quit UKIP.”

    🤔

    UKIP got 13% (+10) in the 2015 GE, with 3.8m votes after winning the Euros with 4.3m in 2014. I’d say that was a fair indicator of increasing Eurosceptism

    Leave winning the 2016 referendum was only such a surprise because the politically engaged downplayed both results IMO

    I agree, but I think it over egging it to say the 2016 result was a surprise. The polls in the run up had the result as a coin toss, with a main PB theme of whether online polls were as reliable as phone polls. I think that discussion is concluded.

    As turnout was roughly double in 2015 GE to Euros 2014, I suspect the votes were from the same 3.8 million people.

    In these Euros, turnout will be key, but likely to be low overall. People are just sick of Brexit, so only the fanatics on each side will turnout.
    Yes they probably were the same people, that’s the point!

    I have to disagree about the referendum result not being a surprise, Leave were 14/1 on the day, and never shorter than 11/8ish during the campaign.
    Polls began to turn some way out from polling day.

    eg https://standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-poll-most-brits-do-want-to-leave-one-week-to-go-before-eu-referendum-vote-a3273141.html
    My God, are people really trying to say Leave winning wasn’t a surprise now?!?!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    “In 2014 Farage’s UKIP came out top with 27% of the vote winning most MEPs. This was, of course, no indicator to what would happen at GE2015 when the party just picked up one seat – Douglas Carswell’s and losing the other one it held. Carswell later quit UKIP.”

    🤔

    UKIP got 13% (+10) in the 2015 GE, with 3.8m votes after winning the Euros with 4.3m in 2014. I’d say that was a fair indicator of increasing Eurosceptism

    Leave winning the 2016 referendum was only such a surprise because the politically engaged downplayed both results IMO

    I agree, but I think it over egging it to say the 2016 result was a surprise. The polls in the run up had the result as a coin toss, with a main PB theme of whether online polls were as reliable as phone polls. I think that discussion is concluded.

    As turnout was roughly double in 2015 GE to Euros 2014, I suspect the votes were from the same 3.8 million people.

    In these Euros, turnout will be key, but likely to be low overall. People are just sick of Brexit, so only the fanatics on each side will turnout.
    Yes they probably were the same people, that’s the point!

    I have to disagree about the referendum result not being a surprise, Leave were 14/1 on the day, and never shorter than 11/8ish during the campaign.
    Polls began to turn some way out from polling day.

    eg https://standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-poll-most-brits-do-want-to-leave-one-week-to-go-before-eu-referendum-vote-a3273141.html
    Yes, the information was there but many punters were unwilling to believe it.

    To be fair, there were questions about both the accuracy of polling sampling and what turnout would be like in a fairly unprecedented vote.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    “In 2014 Farage’s UKIP came out top with 27% of the vote winning most MEPs. This was, of course, no indicator to what would happen at GE2015 when the party just picked up one seat – Douglas Carswell’s and losing the other one it held. Carswell later quit UKIP.”

    🤔

    UKIP got 13% (+10) in the 2015 GE, with 3.8m votes after winning the Euros with 4.3m in 2014. I’d say that was a fair indicator of increasing Eurosceptism

    Leave winning the 2016 referendum was only such a surprise because the politically engaged downplayed both results IMO

    I agree, but I think it over egging it to say the 2016 result was a surprise. The polls in the run up had the result as a coin toss, with a main PB theme of whether online polls were as reliable as phone polls. I think that discussion is concluded.

    As turnout was roughly double in 2015 GE to Euros 2014, I suspect the votes were from the same 3.8 million people.

    In these Euros, turnout will be key, but likely to be low overall. People are just sick of Brexit, so only the fanatics on each side will turnout.
    Yes they probably were the same people, that’s the point!

    I have to disagree about the referendum result not being a surprise, Leave were 14/1 on the day, and never shorter than 11/8ish during the campaign.
    Polls began to turn some way out from polling day.

    eg https://standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-poll-most-brits-do-want-to-leave-one-week-to-go-before-eu-referendum-vote-a3273141.html
    My God, are people really trying to say Leave winning wasn’t a surprise now?!?!
    It may have been shocking but it wasn’t a surprise.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    “In 2014 Farage’s UKIP came out top with 27% of the vote winning most MEPs. This was, of course, no indicator to what would happen at GE2015 when the party just picked up one seat – Douglas Carswell’s and losing the other one it held. Carswell later quit UKIP.”

    🤔

    UKIP got 13% (+10) in the 2015 GE, with 3.8m votes after winning the Euros with 4.3m in 2014. I’d say that was a fair indicator of increasing Eurosceptism

    Leave winning the 2016 referendum was only such a surprise because the politically engaged downplayed both results IMO

    I agree, but I think it over egging it to say the 2016 result was a surprise. The polls in the run up had the result as a coin toss, with a main PB theme of whether online polls were as reliable as phone polls. I think that discussion is concluded.

    As turnout was roughly double in 2015 GE to Euros 2014, I suspect the votes were from the same 3.8 million people.

    In these Euros, turnout will be key, but likely to be low overall. People are just sick of Brexit, so only the fanatics on each side will turnout.
    Yes they probably were the same people, that’s the point!

    I have to disagree about the referendum result not being a surprise, Leave were 14/1 on the day, and never shorter than 11/8ish during the campaign.
    Polls began to turn some way out from polling day.

    eg https://standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-poll-most-brits-do-want-to-leave-one-week-to-go-before-eu-referendum-vote-a3273141.html
    My God, are people really trying to say Leave winning wasn’t a surprise now?!?!
    I'm pointing to an opinion poll (one of several) that showed a Leave preference.

    I think there was plenty of ingrained knowledge/thinking that meant that for many Leave winning was indeed a surprise but if anyone took any heed of the polls and took any heed of what they were saying, it was indeed not too surprising.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    “In 2014 Farage’s UKIP came out top with 27% of the vote winning most MEPs. This was, of course, no indicator to what would happen at GE2015 when the party just picked up one seat – Douglas Carswell’s and losing the other one it held. Carswell later quit UKIP.”

    🤔

    UKIP got 13% (+10) in the 2015 GE, with 3.8m votes after winning the Euros with 4.3m in 2014. I’d say that was a fair indicator of increasing Eurosceptism

    Leave winning the 2016 referendum was only such a surprise because the politically engaged downplayed both results IMO

    I agree, but I think it over egging it to say the 2016 result was a surprise. The polls in the run up had the result as a coin toss, with a main PB theme of whether online polls were as reliable as phone polls. I think that discussion is concluded.

    As turnout was roughly double in 2015 GE to Euros 2014, I suspect the votes were from the same 3.8 million people.

    In these Euros, turnout will be key, but likely to be low overall. People are just sick of Brexit, so only the fanatics on each side will turnout.
    Yes they probably were the same people, that’s the point!

    I have to disagree about the referendum result not being a surprise, Leave were 14/1 on the day, and never shorter than 11/8ish during the campaign.
    Polls began to turn some way out from polling day.

    eg https://standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-poll-most-brits-do-want-to-leave-one-week-to-go-before-eu-referendum-vote-a3273141.html
    My God, are people really trying to say Leave winning wasn’t a surprise now?!?!
    It may have been shocking but it wasn’t a surprise.
    Certainly wasn't a surprise to me. I clearly remember warning an extended family member, who was very active in LibDems, that a referendum would be lost and that was at least a year or two before Cameron even started mooting the idea.

    It is forgotten that iirc the LibDems were once itching for a referendum.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    “In 2014 Farage’s UKIP came out top with 27% of the vote winning most MEPs. This was, of course, no indicator to what would happen at GE2015 when the party just picked up one seat – Douglas Carswell’s and losing the other one it held. Carswell later quit UKIP.”

    🤔

    UKIP got 13% (+10) in the 2015 GE, with 3.8m votes after winning the Euros with 4.3m in 2014. I’d say that was a fair indicator of increasing Eurosceptism

    Leave winning the 2016 referendum was only such a surprise because the politically engaged downplayed both results IMO

    I agree, but I think it over egging it to say the 2016 result was a surprise. The polls in the run up had the result as a coin toss, with a main PB theme of whether online polls were as reliable as phone polls. I think that discussion is concluded.

    As turnout was roughly double in 2015 GE to Euros 2014, I suspect the votes were from the same 3.8 million people.

    In these Euros, turnout will be key, but likely to be low overall. People are just sick of Brexit, so only the fanatics on each side will turnout.
    Yes they probably were the same people, that’s the point!

    I have to disagree about the referendum result not being a surprise, Leave were 14/1 on the day, and never shorter than 11/8ish during the campaign.
    Polls began to turn some way out from polling day.

    eg https://standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-poll-most-brits-do-want-to-leave-one-week-to-go-before-eu-referendum-vote-a3273141.html
    My God, are people really trying to say Leave winning wasn’t a surprise now?!?!
    It may have been shocking but it wasn’t a surprise.
    There's an ex-PM, who traded Number 10 for a shepherd's hut, begs to differ......
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    “In 2014 Farage’s UKIP came out top with 27% of the vote winning most MEPs. This was, of course, no indicator to what would happen at GE2015 when the party just picked up one seat – Douglas Carswell’s and losing the other one it held. Carswell later quit UKIP.”

    🤔

    UKIP got 13% (+10) in the 2015 GE, with 3.8m votes after winning the Euros with 4.3m in 2014. I’d say that was a fair indicator of increasing Eurosceptism

    Leave winning the 2016 referendum was only such a surprise because the politically engaged downplayed both results IMO

    I agree, but I think it over egging it to say the 2016 result was a surprise. The polls in the run up had the result as a coin toss, with a main PB theme of whether online polls were as reliable as phone polls. I think that discussion is concluded.

    As turnout was roughly double in 2015 GE to Euros 2014, I suspect the votes were from the same 3.8 million people.

    In these Euros, turnout will be key, but likely to be low overall. People are just sick of Brexit, so only the fanatics on each side will turnout.
    Yes they probably were the same people, that’s the point!

    I have to disagree about the referendum result not being a surprise, Leave were 14/1 on the day, and never shorter than 11/8ish during the campaign.
    Polls began to turn some way out from polling day.

    eg https://standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-poll-most-brits-do-want-to-leave-one-week-to-go-before-eu-referendum-vote-a3273141.html
    My God, are people really trying to say Leave winning wasn’t a surprise now?!?!
    Looking back, polls had been neck and neck for some weeks.

    Here's another one ahead of the vote:

    https://theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/13/eu-referendum-leave-campaign-takes-six-point-lead-in-guardianicm-polls
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Borough, aye, Clegg had a three line whip abstention on the vote regarding a potential referendum on Lisbon, on the basis it was meaningless and we should have a 'real' referendum on staying or leaving.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    “In 2014 Farage’s UKIP came out top with 27% of the vote winning most MEPs. This was, of course, no indicator to what would happen at GE2015 when the party just picked up one seat – Douglas Carswell’s and losing the other one it held. Carswell later quit UKIP.”

    🤔

    UKIP got 13% (+10) in the 2015 GE, with 3.8m votes after winning the Euros with 4.3m in 2014. I’d say that was a fair indicator of increasing Eurosceptism

    Leave winning the 2016 referendum was only such a surprise because the politically engaged downplayed both results IMO

    I agree, but I think it over egging it to say the 2016 result was a surprise. The polls in the run up had the result as a coin toss, with a main PB theme of whether online polls were as reliable as phone polls. I think that discussion is concluded.

    As turnout was roughly double in 2015 GE to Euros 2014, I suspect the votes were from the same 3.8 million people.

    In these Euros, turnout will be key, but likely to be low overall. People are just sick of Brexit, so only the fanatics on each side will turnout.
    Yes they probably were the same people, that’s the point!

    I have to disagree about the referendum result not being a surprise, Leave were 14/1 on the day, and never shorter than 11/8ish during the campaign.
    Polls began to turn some way out from polling day.

    eg https://standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-poll-most-brits-do-want-to-leave-one-week-to-go-before-eu-referendum-vote-a3273141.html
    My God, are people really trying to say Leave winning wasn’t a surprise now?!?!
    There were countless polls showing Leave ahead but the media peddled a narrative that it was a big shock they won. The thought was that somehow Remain would scrape over the line as voters at the last minute went for the status quo but that didn’t happen .
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    “In 2014 Farage’s UKIP came out top with 27% of the vote winning most MEPs. This was, of course, no indicator to what would happen at GE2015 when the party just picked up one seat – Douglas Carswell’s and losing the other one it held. Carswell later quit UKIP.”

    🤔

    UKIP got 13% (+10) in the 2015 GE, with 3.8m votes after winning the Euros with 4.3m in 2014. I’d say that was a fair indicator of increasing Eurosceptism

    Leave winning the 2016 referendum was only such a surprise because the politically engaged downplayed both results IMO

    I agree, but I think it over egging it to say the 2016 result was a surprise. The polls in the run up had the result as a coin toss, with a main PB theme of whether online polls were as reliable as phone polls. I think that discussion is concluded.

    As turnout was roughly double in 2015 GE to Euros 2014, I suspect the votes were from the same 3.8 million people.

    In these Euros, turnout will be key, but likely to be low overall. People are just sick of Brexit, so only the fanatics on each side will turnout.
    Yes they probably were the same people, that’s the point!

    I have to disagree about the referendum result not being a surprise, Leave were 14/1 on the day, and never shorter than 11/8ish during the campaign.
    Polls began to turn some way out from polling day.

    eg https://standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-poll-most-brits-do-want-to-leave-one-week-to-go-before-eu-referendum-vote-a3273141.html
    My God, are people really trying to say Leave winning wasn’t a surprise now?!?!
    Looking back, polls had been neck and neck for some weeks.

    Here's another one ahead of the vote:

    https://theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/13/eu-referendum-leave-campaign-takes-six-point-lead-in-guardianicm-polls
    I know how the polling went, I followed this event quite closely!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Topping, true, though the 2015 GE polls were neck and neck for months on end.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    “In 2014 Farage’s UKIP came out top with 27% of the vote winning most MEPs. This was, of course, no indicator to what would happen at GE2015 when the party just picked up one seat – Douglas Carswell’s and losing the other one it held. Carswell later quit UKIP.”

    🤔

    UKIP got 13% (+10) in the 2015 GE, with 3.8m votes after winning the Euros with 4.3m in 2014. I’d say that was a fair indicator of increasing Eurosceptism

    Leave winning the 2016 referendum was only such a surprise because the politically engaged downplayed both results IMO

    I agree, but I think it over egging it to say the 2016 result was a surprise. The polls in the run up had the result as a coin toss, with a main PB theme of whether online polls were as reliable as phone polls. I think that discussion is concluded.

    As turnout was roughly double in 2015 GE to Euros 2014, I suspect the votes were from the same 3.8 million people.

    In these Euros, turnout will be key, but likely to be low overall. People are just sick of Brexit, so only the fanatics on each side will turnout.
    Yes they probably were the same people, that’s the point!

    I have to disagree about the referendum result not being a surprise, Leave were 14/1 on the day, and never shorter than 11/8ish during the campaign.
    Polls began to turn some way out from polling day.

    eg https://standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-poll-most-brits-do-want-to-leave-one-week-to-go-before-eu-referendum-vote-a3273141.html
    My God, are people really trying to say Leave winning wasn’t a surprise now?!?!
    Looking back, polls had been neck and neck for some weeks.

    Here's another one ahead of the vote:

    https://theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/13/eu-referendum-leave-campaign-takes-six-point-lead-in-guardianicm-polls
    I know how the polling went, I followed this event quite closely!
    So the result wasn't a surprise for you. QED.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Opinion polls hey, who'd trust em? You'd think the shock of 23% would unite the Tories behind brexiting at all costs but they are far too broad a church to cope with a single issue crisis.
    I'd suggest if they lose a VONC they need to let Corbyn in until they have a new leader and Corbyn has messed everything up/lost what's left of his magic grandpa lustre.
    What a pitiful state UK politics is in. The opposition to a terrible, divided and weak government that cannot deliver on the biggest mandate in terms of votes ever given is struggling to register much more than 30% in polls. He can't even get a majority on UNS with the Tories on 23%. Pathetic.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    “In 2014 Farage’s UKIP came out top with 27% of the vote winning most MEPs. This was, of course, no indicator to what would happen at GE2015 when the party just picked up one seat – Douglas Carswell’s and losing the other one it held. Carswell later quit UKIP.”

    🤔

    UKIP got 13% (+10) in the 2015 GE, with 3.8m votes after winning the Euros with 4.3m in 2014. I’d say that was a fair indicator of increasing Eurosceptism

    Leave winning the 2016 referendum was only such a surprise because the politically engaged downplayed both results IMO

    I agree, but I think it over .
    Yes they probably were the same people, that’s the point!

    I have to disagree about the referendum result not being a surprise, Leave were 14/1 on the day, and never shorter than 11/8ish during the campaign.
    Polls began to turn some way out from polling day.

    eg https://standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-poll-most-brits-do-want-to-leave-one-week-to-go-before-eu-referendum-vote-a3273141.html
    My God, are people really trying to say Leave winning wasn’t a surprise now?!?!
    I'm pointing to an opinion poll (one of several) that showed a Leave preference.

    I think there was plenty of ingrained knowledge/thinking that meant that for many Leave winning was indeed a surprise but if anyone took any heed of the polls and took any heed of what they were saying, it was indeed not too surprising.
    Indeed, and in that eve of poll PB thread there are many interesting comments, but not a lot of conviction by either side that they had won. This is an interesting one from @Sandpit for example:

    "I worry that a 51-49 is going to end up in court one way or the other. The campaigns have both been a disgrace to democracy with bogus statistics, baseless scaremongering and abuse of process.

    I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy"
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited April 2019
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    “In 2014 Farage’s UKIP came out top with 27% of the vote winning most MEPs. This was, of course, no indicator to what would happen at GE2015 when the party just picked up one seat – Douglas Carswell’s and losing the other one it held. Carswell later quit UKIP.”

    🤔

    UKIP got 13% (+10) in the 2015 GE, with 3.8m votes after winning the Euros with 4.3m in 2014. I’d say that was a fair indicator of increasing Eurosceptism

    Leave winning the 2016 referendum was only such a surprise because the politically engaged downplayed both results IMO

    As turnout was roughly double in 2015 GE to Euros 2014, I suspect the votes were from the same 3.8 million people.

    In these Euros, turnout will be key, but likely to be low overall. People are just sick of Brexit, so only the fanatics on each side will turnout.
    Yes they probably were the same people, that’s the point!

    I have to disagree about the referendum result not being a surprise, Leave were 14/1 on the day, and never shorter than 11/8ish during the campaign.
    Polls began to turn some way out from polling day.

    eg https://standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-poll-most-brits-do-want-to-leave-one-week-to-go-before-eu-referendum-vote-a3273141.html
    My God, are people really trying to say Leave winning wasn’t a surprise now?!?!
    Looking back, polls had been neck and neck for some weeks.

    Here's another one ahead of the vote:

    https://theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/13/eu-referendum-leave-campaign-takes-six-point-lead-in-guardianicm-polls
    I know how the polling went, I followed this event quite closely!
    So the result wasn't a surprise for you. QED.
    I would say it was a surprise to me, yes.

    Obviously as a Kipper at the time, I was convinced of the arguments for Leave, but the Remain dominated, politically engaged social media being overconfident of their chances of victory compared to what I was hearing in real life was the reason I bet on Leave to win. That's why I am astonished that it is not being considered a surprise .I spent years on here being told no one was interested in the EU and leaving was a niche topic.

    So I was surprised to be right all along I guess.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    The Samsung story seems a bit odd. Surely they would've/should've done a bucketload of testing?

    These are the people who gave the world the exploding Note 7.

    Samsung are awful. They release improperly tested phones to the world.
    And you suck up to an evil company, and pay 30-40% more for their gear. ;)

    (And gear which dies not always work, either.)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    The Samsung story seems a bit odd. Surely they would've/should've done a bucketload of testing?

    These are the people who gave the world the exploding Note 7.

    Samsung are awful. They release improperly tested phones to the world.
    And you suck up to an evil company, and pay 30-40% more for their gear. ;)

    (And gear which dies not always work, either.)
    Indeed rarely does one see an iphone in the wild without a cracked screen!
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    nico67 said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    “In 2014 Farage’s UKIP came out top with 27% of the vote winning most MEPs. This was, of course, no indicator to what would happen at GE2015 when the party just picked up one seat – Douglas Carswell’s and losing the other one it held. Carswell later quit UKIP.”

    🤔

    UKIP got 13% (+10) in the 2015 GE, with 3.8m votes after winning the Euros with 4.3m in 2014. I’d say that was a fair indicator of increasing Eurosceptism

    Leave winning the 2016 referendum was only such a surprise because the politically engaged downplayed both results IMO

    I agree, but I think it over egging it to say the 2016 result was a surprise. The polls in the run up had the result as a coin toss, with a main PB theme of whether online polls were as reliable as phone polls. I think that discussion is concluded.

    As turnout was roughly double in 2015 GE to Euros 2014, I suspect the votes were from the same 3.8 million people.

    In these Euros, turnout will be key, but likely to be low overall. People are just sick of Brexit, so only the fanatics on each side will turnout.
    Yes they probably were the same people, that’s the point!

    I have to disagree about the referendum result not being a surprise, Leave were 14/1 on the day, and never shorter than 11/8ish during the campaign.
    Polls began to turn some way out from polling day.

    eg https://standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-poll-most-brits-do-want-to-leave-one-week-to-go-before-eu-referendum-vote-a3273141.html
    My God, are people really trying to say Leave winning wasn’t a surprise now?!?!
    There were countless polls showing Leave ahead but the media peddled a narrative that it was a big shock they won. The thought was that somehow Remain would scrape over the line as voters at the last minute went for the status quo but that didn’t happen .
    Not an unreasonable assumption based on the history of other referendums.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    The Samsung story seems a bit odd. Surely they would've/should've done a bucketload of testing?

    My *guess* is that they did loads of testing on pre-production samples.

    Then, during ramping up for volume, something changed. You only need tiny changes in the production process to cause havoc. Perhaps a new line for the screens has an issue.

    Been there, seen it. :(

    It doesn't excuse it, but if that's the case then it is understandable. Less so if they did do too little testing on even pre-production samples.
  • Adam Boulton really losing it with the extinction protestors
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Jessop, interesting post.

    Speaking of technology, there's some info about the PS5. One of the headlines is that it'll apparently have backwards compatibility for PS4 games, which would be rather handy.
  • The Samsung story seems a bit odd. Surely they would've/should've done a bucketload of testing?

    These are the people who gave the world the exploding Note 7.

    Samsung are awful. They release improperly tested phones to the world.
    And you suck up to an evil company, and pay 30-40% more for their gear. ;)

    (And gear which dies not always work, either.)
    Since 2010 I’ve bought around 25 iPhones of which only one developed an issue which Apple replaced straight away.

    I’ve bought a similar amount of iPads in that time not a single issue with any of them.

    I’m on my fourth Apple Watch, again no issues

    Most importantly I’ve been buying Macs or MacBooks every other year since the mid 90s, not one developed an issue. Nor have I had the blue screen of death.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    I suppose what you could say about the Euro elections is that winning them (and winning them well if you include a fair chunk of the Ukip vote with the Tories in 1999 and 2004) does not guarantee winning the following General Election. But not winning them comfortably pretty much condemns an opposition to defeat at the subsequent General Election. The question is, will that hold true with Corbyn and Labour this time?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1118792996533809153?s=19

    The stay and fight quislings have much to answer for
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Adam Boulton really losing it with the extinction protestors

    Pollyanna Boulton losing his cool? Never!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Foxy said:

    The Samsung story seems a bit odd. Surely they would've/should've done a bucketload of testing?

    These are the people who gave the world the exploding Note 7.

    Samsung are awful. They release improperly tested phones to the world.
    And you suck up to an evil company, and pay 30-40% more for their gear. ;)

    (And gear which dies not always work, either.)
    Indeed rarely does one see an iphone in the wild without a cracked screen!
    I know you're joking, but I can't understand why people spend £500-1000 on a consumer device and don't put a case on it. All my phones have cases, and I've never suffered a broken screen despite some sometimes harsh handling. I also hate the trend for thinner phones, when what I need is increased battery life.

    Yet the trend is for style. When it's a trade-off between showing off and risking breakage, showing off wins. :(
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Foxy said:

    The Samsung story seems a bit odd. Surely they would've/should've done a bucketload of testing?

    These are the people who gave the world the exploding Note 7.

    Samsung are awful. They release improperly tested phones to the world.
    And you suck up to an evil company, and pay 30-40% more for their gear. ;)

    (And gear which dies not always work, either.)
    Indeed rarely does one see an iphone in the wild without a cracked screen!
    Tempting fate, karma or whatever I know but my wife and I, and one or our sons, have had iPhones for seven or eight years and I don't think we've ever had a cracked screen. One of our granddaughters has, but she dropped hers and the floors in her parents house are unforgiving!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    The Samsung story seems a bit odd. Surely they would've/should've done a bucketload of testing?

    These are the people who gave the world the exploding Note 7.

    Samsung are awful. They release improperly tested phones to the world.
    And you suck up to an evil company, and pay 30-40% more for their gear. ;)

    (And gear which dies not always work, either.)
    Since 2010 I’ve bought around 25 iPhones of which only one developed an issue which Apple replaced straight away.

    I’ve bought a similar amount of iPads in that time not a single issue with any of them.

    I’m on my fourth Apple Watch, again no issues

    Most importantly I’ve been buying Macs or MacBooks every other year since the mid 90s, not one developed an issue. Nor have I had the blue screen of death.
    You should work out how much you've spent - that's essentially three phones a year. One of my phones lasts three years.

    For one thing, buying so much kit means that you're hardly getting into the rear end of the bathtub curve. You're turning tech into a disposable product - so no wonder you rarely see it go wrong ...
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited April 2019
    nico67 said:

    There were countless polls showing Leave ahead but the media peddled a narrative that it was a big shock they won. The thought was that somehow Remain would scrape over the line as voters at the last minute went for the status quo but that didn’t happen .

    The other thing about the EURef was that the online polls were pretty good but the phone polls were wonky. Historically phone polls had a reputation for being better - I guess dating back to the olden days, when people used to use phones for talking.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    isam said:
    Good old Nige. He needs to start advocating unfettered immigration next and paint the Tories as narrow-minded xenophobes.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    “In 2014 Farage’s UKIP came out top with 27% of the vote winning most MEPs. This was, of course, no indicator to what would happen at GE2015 when the party just picked up one seat – Douglas Carswell’s and losing the other one it held. Carswell later quit UKIP.”

    🤔

    UKIP got 13% (+10) in the 2015 GE, with 3.8m votes after winning the Euros with 4.3m in 2014. I’d say that was a fair indicator of increasing Eurosceptism

    Leave winning the 2016 referendum was only such a surprise because the politically engaged downplayed both results IMO

    As turnout was roughly double
    In these Euros, turnout will be key, but likely to be low overall. People are just sick of Brexit, so only the fanatics on each side will turnout.
    Yes they probably were the same people, that’s the point!

    I have to disagree about the referendum result not being a surprise, Leave were 14/1 on the day, and never shorter than 11/8ish during the campaign.
    Polls began to turn some way out from polling day.

    eg https://standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-poll-most-brits-do-want-to-leave-one-week-to-go-before-eu-referendum-vote-a3273141.html
    My God, are people really trying to say Leave winning wasn’t a surprise now?!?!
    Looking back, polls had been neck and neck for some weeks.

    Here's another one ahead of the vote:

    https://theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/13/eu-referendum-leave-campaign-takes-six-point-lead-in-guardianicm-polls
    I know how the polling went, I followed this event quite closely!
    So the result wasn't a surprise for you. QED.
    I would say it was a surprise to me, yes.

    Obviously as a Kipper at the time, I was convinced of the arguments for Leave, but the Remain dominated, politically engaged social media being overconfident of their chances of victory compared to what I was hearing in real life was the reason I bet on Leave to win. That's why I am astonished that it is not being considered a surprise .I spent years on here being told no one was interested in the EU and leaving was a niche topic.

    So I was surprised to be right all along I guess.
    "remain dominated politically engaged social media"

    I think I've found the nub of the problem.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Adam Boulton really losing it with the extinction protestors

    When are S.Khan (Mayor) and S.Khan (Home Sec.) going to grow a set ?

  • The Samsung story seems a bit odd. Surely they would've/should've done a bucketload of testing?

    These are the people who gave the world the exploding Note 7.

    Samsung are awful. They release improperly tested phones to the world.
    And you suck up to an evil company, and pay 30-40% more for their gear. ;)

    (And gear which dies not always work, either.)
    Since 2010 I’ve bought around 25 iPhones of which only one developed an issue which Apple replaced straight away.

    I’ve bought a similar amount of iPads in that time not a single issue with any of them.

    I’m on my fourth Apple Watch, again no issues

    Most importantly I’ve been buying Macs or MacBooks every other year since the mid 90s, not one developed an issue. Nor have I had the blue screen of death.
    You should work out how much you've spent - that's essentially three phones a year. One of my phones lasts three years.

    For one thing, buying so much kit means that you're hardly getting into the rear end of the bathtub curve. You're turning tech into a disposable product - so no wonder you rarely see it go wrong ...
    Last year when I traded in the three phones I got back over £2,000 which paid for two new handsets.

    That’s one of the good things about Apple they keep their value.

    Some of the iPads are old as they get passed down to the kids.

    PS - The three phones a year aren’t for me, I get my parents a brand new phone every year because I’m an awesome son.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    edited April 2019

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1118792996533809153?s=19

    The stay and fight quislings have much to answer for

    Labour fighting for the 45% who can't see/don't care Labour has an anti-semitism problem....
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Precisely. Farage is not the problem, its what follows when he gets bored and wanders off. Look at what Corbyn has allowed to infest Labour, we are lurching to filthy extremes
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Foxy said:

    The Samsung story seems a bit odd. Surely they would've/should've done a bucketload of testing?

    These are the people who gave the world the exploding Note 7.

    Samsung are awful. They release improperly tested phones to the world.
    And you suck up to an evil company, and pay 30-40% more for their gear. ;)

    (And gear which dies not always work, either.)
    Indeed rarely does one see an iphone in the wild without a cracked screen!
    I know you're joking, but I can't understand why people spend £500-1000 on a consumer device and don't put a case on it. All my phones have cases, and I've never suffered a broken screen despite some sometimes harsh handling. I also hate the trend for thinner phones, when what I need is increased battery life.

    Yet the trend is for style. When it's a trade-off between showing off and risking breakage, showing off wins. :(
    If you want a pointless, annoying trend what about the fashion for low profile tyres on bog standard family cars and, even more ridiculous, 4x4s?!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    The Samsung story seems a bit odd. Surely they would've/should've done a bucketload of testing?

    These are the people who gave the world the exploding Note 7.

    Samsung are awful. They release improperly tested phones to the world.
    And you suck up to an evil company, and pay 30-40% more for their gear. ;)

    (And gear which dies not always work, either.)
    Since 2010 I’ve bought around 25 iPhones of which only one developed an issue which Apple replaced straight away.

    I’ve bought a similar amount of iPads in that time not a single issue with any of them.

    I’m on my fourth Apple Watch, again no issues

    Most importantly I’ve been buying Macs or MacBooks every other year since the mid 90s, not one developed an issue. Nor have I had the blue screen of death.
    You should work out how much you've spent - that's essentially three phones a year. One of my phones lasts three years.

    For one thing, buying so much kit means that you're hardly getting into the rear end of the bathtub curve. You're turning tech into a disposable product - so no wonder you rarely see it go wrong ...
    Last year when I traded in the three phones I got back over £2,000 which paid for two new handsets.

    That’s one of the good things about Apple they keep their value.

    Some of the iPads are old as they get passed down to the kids.

    PS - The three phones a year aren’t for me, I get my parents a brand new phone every year because I’m an awesome son.
    How can you be sure they're not having issues - especially with software - if you're not the one using them? Do you ask your relatives to report all issues to you?

    You are an inveterate show-off. There's nothing wrong with that, just as there's nothing wrong for gently taking the mick out of you for your rampant consumerism and fanaticism. ;)

    (As an aside, Mrs J has now worked on tech that is in Apple, Samsung, Google and generic Android products. I'm now fairly manufacturer agnostic from that pov.) :)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    The Samsung story seems a bit odd. Surely they would've/should've done a bucketload of testing?

    These are the people who gave the world the exploding Note 7.

    Samsung are awful. They release improperly tested phones to the world.
    And you suck up to an evil company, and pay 30-40% more for their gear. ;)

    (And gear which dies not always work, either.)
    Since 2010 I’ve bought around 25 iPhones of which only one developed an issue which Apple replaced straight away.

    I’ve bought a similar amount of iPads in that time not a single issue with any of them.

    I’m on my fourth Apple Watch, again no issues

    Most importantly I’ve been buying Macs or MacBooks every other year since the mid 90s, not one developed an issue. Nor have I had the blue screen of death.
    You should work out how much you've spent - that's essentially three phones a year. One of my phones lasts three years.

    For one thing, buying so much kit means that you're hardly getting into the rear end of the bathtub curve. You're turning tech into a disposable product - so no wonder you rarely see it go wrong ...
    Last year when I traded in the three phones I got back over £2,000 which paid for two new handsets.

    That’s one of the good things about Apple they keep their value.

    Some of the iPads are old as they get passed down to the kids.

    PS - The three phones a year aren’t for me, I get my parents a brand new phone every year because I’m an awesome son.
    ...an awesome son who doesn't give a shit about the environmental impact of all that pointless stuff he buys? :wink:
  • The Samsung story seems a bit odd. Surely they would've/should've done a bucketload of testing?

    These are the people who gave the world the exploding Note 7.

    Samsung are awful. They release improperly tested phones to the world.
    And you suck up to an evil company, and pay 30-40% more for their gear. ;)

    (And gear which dies not always work, either.)
    Since 2010 I’ve bought around 25 iPhones of which only one developed an issue which Apple replaced straight away.

    I’ve bought a similar amount of iPads in that time not a single issue with any of them.

    I’m on my fourth Apple Watch, again no issues

    Most importantly I’ve been buying Macs or MacBooks every other year since the mid 90s, not one developed an issue. Nor have I had the blue screen of death.
    You should work out how much you've spent - that's essentially three phones a year. One of my phones lasts three years.

    For one thing, buying so much kit means that you're hardly getting into the rear end of the bathtub curve. You're turning tech into a disposable product - so no wonder you rarely see it go wrong ...
    Last year when I traded in the three phones I got back over £2,000 which paid for two new handsets.

    That’s one of the good things about Apple they keep their value.

    Some of the iPads are old as they get passed down to the kids.

    PS - The three phones a year aren’t for me, I get my parents a brand new phone every year because I’m an awesome son.
    How can you be sure they're not having issues - especially with software - if you're not the one using them? Do you ask your relatives to report all issues to you?

    You are an inveterate show-off. There's nothing wrong with that, just as there's nothing wrong for gently taking the mick out of you for your rampant consumerism and fanaticism. ;)

    (As an aside, Mrs J has now worked on tech that is in Apple, Samsung, Google and generic Android products. I'm now fairly manufacturer agnostic from that pov.) :)
    I know people who have older iPhones and they still love them.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    The Samsung story seems a bit odd. Surely they would've/should've done a bucketload of testing?

    These are the people who gave the world the exploding Note 7.

    Samsung are awful. They release improperly tested phones to the world.
    And you suck up to an evil company, and pay 30-40% more for their gear. ;)

    (And gear which dies not always work, either.)
    Since 2010 I’ve bought around 25 iPhones of which only one developed an issue which Apple replaced straight away.

    I’ve bought a similar amount of iPads in that time not a single issue with any of them.

    I’m on my fourth Apple Watch, again no issues

    Most importantly I’ve been buying Macs or MacBooks every other year since the mid 90s, not one developed an issue. Nor have I had the blue screen of death.
    You should work out how much you've spent - that's essentially three phones a year. One of my phones lasts three years.

    For one thing, buying so much kit means that you're hardly getting into the rear end of the bathtub curve. You're turning tech into a disposable product - so no wonder you rarely see it go wrong ...
    Try the Pocophone F1. A quarter the price of an IPhone , £235 on Ebay new, and faster.
This discussion has been closed.