Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UK Euro elections have been no guide to what will happen at th
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UK Euro elections have been no guide to what will happen at the next general election
While everybody is getting over excited at the moment about the prospect of the May 23rd Euro elections we should remind ourselves and how they have been totally non indicative of what’s going to happen at the following general election
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Like either Lab or UKIP or the Brexit Party or the LDs in the Euros. But not the Cons.
FPT will any ERG MPs defect to the Brext Party? What if Hunt takes over as PM?
Like the EU parliament.
Hence why stupid for the Cons to stand candidates.
Getting all they deserved now - it’s a referendum on politicians now - “do you like being ignored Y/N”.
A well deserved hammering for the blues.
You may not care but it is, you know, the foundation of modern Western democracies.
GRN + TIG + LD + SNP vs BRX + UKIP + DUP
But it's still messy.
Good GRIEF. That latest ComRes VI out just now with the Tories on 23%, down 9%!!!! Blimey.
In other news, did anyone take up my tip over a month ago to bet on Spurs or Ajax at odds over 25-1 (Ajax were a ridiculous 40-1 at the time)? Well, one of them is going into the CL final and I'd call that a decent punt. Anything could happen in Madrid on June 01st.
They also won in 1994, which was as far as I can see the only Euro election to prove a reasonable barometer of what would happen at the next election.
Or perhaps a better analogy would be elections in the American South 1866-1948, where all the Democratic candidate had to do was turn up not looking too completely thick and crazy to win.
🤔
UKIP got 13% (+10) in the 2015 GE, with 3.8m votes after winning the Euros with 4.3m in 2014. I’d say that was a fair indicator of increasing Eurosceptism
Leave winning the 2016 referendum was only such a surprise because the politically engaged downplayed both results IMO
And don't try to blame Brexit.
I don't expect them to be next time, but we should remember we live in turbulent political times. Complacency is one of the reasons Remain lost.
The point I was trying to make is that Euro elections are regardless of the system a very bad barometer for general elections, 1994 under rather special circumstances excepted.
Has anyone done an analysis of the locals? Because I suspect that would show a similar trend.
I remember Tony King was asked about this when the Tories had had a reasonable night in the locals and yet were languishing on about 28% in the polls. He said the explanation was simple - polls asked how people would vote in a GENERAL election, whereas in local and pan-national elections they have low turnout and a variety of complex reasons for voting as they do. So he added that they are an extremely unreliable guide to GE performance.
Not that the opinion polls have covered themselves in glory since 2005 either, of course.
On the Euros I think we should keep it simpler than your suggestion. DUP have a sectarian vote and the Greens have the eco vote. Let's take them out.
Just go BREXIT + UKIP versus LD + CHANGE.
Then if one side of that equation EASILY beats the other - conclusions can be drawn.
If not, best not to.
1999 & 2004. Government receives normal mid-term election defeat -> Government receives normal swingback for general election.
2009. Labour drop to third -> they're out of government at the next general election.
2014. UKIP top the polls -> the Tories win their first majority for 23 years with a clear promise of a referendum to win support from UKIP voters.
2019. Brexit Party top the polls?/Tories drop to third? -> the Tories under a new hard Brexit leader win a majority on a clear promise of no compromise with Brussels? Tories out of government at the next general election?
I'm sure I can come up with a post general election reasoning for how it was all foreshadowed by the EU elections.
As turnout was roughly double in 2015 GE to Euros 2014, I suspect the votes were from the same 3.8 million people.
In these Euros, turnout will be key, but likely to be low overall. People are just sick of Brexit, so only the fanatics on each side will turnout.
If Labour won the European elections though that increases the chances of EUref2 or revoke
I have to disagree about the referendum result not being a surprise, Leave were 14/1 on the day, and never shorter than 11/8ish during the campaign.
That therefore is the precise opposite of the Soviet system. There you could vote for a candidate - the party had been decided already.
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1118780866220699649?s=21
I'll get my coat.
Have a good morning.
Samsung are awful. They release improperly tested phones to the world.
I'm sure this will develop as the campaign progresses, as yesterday's YouGov signals, and I delve deeper into the current dodgy subsamples. In reality, the YouGov already says the Labour/Brexit battle will be much closer.
Lab 28% 27 (4 NW, Lon, 3 WM, Yorks, 2 EM, NE, SE, Wal, Sco, East, 1 SW)
Brexit 16% 13 (2 WM, SE, East, 1 EM, NE, NW, Yorks, Lon, SW, Wal)
Con 18% 12 (3 SE, 2 East, 1 EM, WM, NW, Yorks, Lon, SW, Scot)
UKIP 10% 7 (EM, WM, NW, Yorks, SE, SW, East)
LD 9% 4 (NW, Lon, SE, SW)
Green 7% 3 (Lon, SE, SW)
SNP 3
PC, DUP, UUP, SF 1
ChUK 5% 0
And if the problems are happening after only a few days, even a small amount of testing should've shown up the weakness.
Daft sods.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/22/two-massive-poll-boosts-for-remain-with-voting-starting-in-less-than-nine-hours/
The problem with polling is that it is way open to perception bias, people see what they want to see, a challenge for any political punter. I too have fallen in that trap at times, but made a profit on the night because I thought Leave better value in a coin toss.
Further proof that Farage knows nothing.
Sounds about right.
11/8 was the shortest it ever was (the morning of Jo Cox’s murder)... for most of the campaign Leave was a lot bigger (Remain was tipped as a value bet on here at 1/4)
But if you don’t want to think of a big odds on shot getting turned over as a surprise, it’s down to you 🙄
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/04/10000-year-old-urine-holds-clues-domestication/587260/
eg https://standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-poll-most-brits-do-want-to-leave-one-week-to-go-before-eu-referendum-vote-a3273141.html
I bet on Out in the Sindy ref because it seemed good value too, but there I was wrong.
To be fair, there were questions about both the accuracy of polling sampling and what turnout would be like in a fairly unprecedented vote.
I think there was plenty of ingrained knowledge/thinking that meant that for many Leave winning was indeed a surprise but if anyone took any heed of the polls and took any heed of what they were saying, it was indeed not too surprising.
It is forgotten that iirc the LibDems were once itching for a referendum.
Here's another one ahead of the vote:
https://theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/13/eu-referendum-leave-campaign-takes-six-point-lead-in-guardianicm-polls
I'd suggest if they lose a VONC they need to let Corbyn in until they have a new leader and Corbyn has messed everything up/lost what's left of his magic grandpa lustre.
What a pitiful state UK politics is in. The opposition to a terrible, divided and weak government that cannot deliver on the biggest mandate in terms of votes ever given is struggling to register much more than 30% in polls. He can't even get a majority on UNS with the Tories on 23%. Pathetic.
"I worry that a 51-49 is going to end up in court one way or the other. The campaigns have both been a disgrace to democracy with bogus statistics, baseless scaremongering and abuse of process.
I have my side, but would much rather it were a decisive 55-45 either way than a very marginal result. Also hoping for high turnout to add legitimacy"
Obviously as a Kipper at the time, I was convinced of the arguments for Leave, but the Remain dominated, politically engaged social media being overconfident of their chances of victory compared to what I was hearing in real life was the reason I bet on Leave to win. That's why I am astonished that it is not being considered a surprise .I spent years on here being told no one was interested in the EU and leaving was a niche topic.
So I was surprised to be right all along I guess.
(And gear which dies not always work, either.)
Then, during ramping up for volume, something changed. You only need tiny changes in the production process to cause havoc. Perhaps a new line for the screens has an issue.
Been there, seen it.
It doesn't excuse it, but if that's the case then it is understandable. Less so if they did do too little testing on even pre-production samples.
Speaking of technology, there's some info about the PS5. One of the headlines is that it'll apparently have backwards compatibility for PS4 games, which would be rather handy.
I’ve bought a similar amount of iPads in that time not a single issue with any of them.
I’m on my fourth Apple Watch, again no issues
Most importantly I’ve been buying Macs or MacBooks every other year since the mid 90s, not one developed an issue. Nor have I had the blue screen of death.
The stay and fight quislings have much to answer for
Yet the trend is for style. When it's a trade-off between showing off and risking breakage, showing off wins.
For one thing, buying so much kit means that you're hardly getting into the rear end of the bathtub curve. You're turning tech into a disposable product - so no wonder you rarely see it go wrong ...
I think I've found the nub of the problem.
That’s one of the good things about Apple they keep their value.
Some of the iPads are old as they get passed down to the kids.
PS - The three phones a year aren’t for me, I get my parents a brand new phone every year because I’m an awesome son.
You are an inveterate show-off. There's nothing wrong with that, just as there's nothing wrong for gently taking the mick out of you for your rampant consumerism and fanaticism.
(As an aside, Mrs J has now worked on tech that is in Apple, Samsung, Google and generic Android products. I'm now fairly manufacturer agnostic from that pov.)