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https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1117101502714322947?s=19
If I remember correctly OGH went all in on UKIP not winning the EU elections.
Though the Conservatives as a whole haven't been attempting any positivity for at least six months.
And for the euros;
https://www.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1117101882906959873
Main difference is the Labour vote holding better against remain splitters.
This poll began earlier than Yougov though.
As this is a phrase used by people who follow him around trying to undermine him, is this clever politics or a mistake?
1) The government is as popular you'd expect a government soon to be celebrating its 9th birthday.
2) There's anger at not delivering Brexit.
3) There's anger at not stopping Brexit.
4) A lot of 2 and 3 are united in frustration in that Brexit is occupying in the entire bandwidth of the government and they are taking their eye off the ball on public services. There's more anger in this than 2 and 3.
5) Local and European elections are a free hit at expressing your frustration at the Tories and which will not see us getting PM Corbyn. A few expressed the view that it was better for the country if Farage and the Kipper loons were sent to Bruxelles than stay here and cause more damage.
6) Corbyn isn't seen as a PM in waiting.
7) Nor is Boris and most of the cabinet. Met a teacher who is still pissed off at Gove and won't vote Tory whilst Gove is an MP.
7) Mrs May might be the only reason the Tory share is holding up. A lot of admiration for her and dealing with the hospital pass of Brexit.
8) A lot of uncomplimentary comments towards Andrea Jenkyns. At the next GE I'd expect a larger swing against the ERG than regular Tories.
9) I also think independents will do better than expected in the locals, a lot of voters think they are TIG/CUK.
If the Tories are going to have an ok nights in the locals they are going to need Labour's lazy voters to stay at home. I think the TPA have spent a lot of money on facebook adverts pointing out the councillors/council staff who earn more than the PM, that was mentioned a few times. Don't be shocked at some surprise gains by the Tories.
But I'm expecting the Tories to do very badly in the European elections, dockside hooker when the fleet is in territory.
This was the time of the strange LADBROKES match bet that had Conservatives fav over UKIP 1/2 6/4, despite UKIP being 2/1 to win the elections and the Tories 10s!
I said it must be the best bet ever, but someone on here talked me out of it
But there's a sense of deference to politicians even when they have a decades long record of incompetence.
Are there any other professions where this tolerance of failure is so normalised.
To Leavers , we can’t allow a damaging Tory Brexit and are left with no choice but to have a second vote and let the public decide .
To Remainers , the same , pro EU voters will just be happy to see a second vote.
This holds onto their very large Remain vote and reduces the Leave vote losses . The Labour Party need to come out strong for this now and stop the waffle .
In the European elections it will be a different story as there are fewer candidates needed and they will be conducted under PR not FPTP with a full slate of Brexit Party and UKIP candidates in every region
HYUFD said:
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The Tories got 28.6% in Scotland at GE17 but only 27.2% in Edinburgh Leith.
Thus Ruth Davidson could become First Minister and the Scottish Tories win a majority of MPs at Westminster and MSPs at Holyrood and still lose Edinburgh Leith
The Tories can always pick a hard Brexiteer as leader once May goes before the next general election
Were you canvassing in Wrenthorpe & Outwood West ?
And is it Leave voters who are angry about Andrea Jenkyns ?
But that does suggest the ERG plan of overthrowing May and replacing her with Raab might not be a vote winner.
Mildly surprised by the Jenkyns specific comments given the strong sceptical support in this area (UKIP did relatively well here an election or two ago).
By neither facilitating departure nor revocation, the Government forfeiting the support of both sides is perhaps unsurprising.
With Fox and Grayling in charge of Trade and Transport.
High risk. Very, very high risk.
I could understand going for the indicative votes, but requiring the government to apply to extend A50 was just dancing to Labour's tune.
One person mentioned Jenkyns stabbing Cameron in the back, said if it wasn't for Cameron Jenkyns wouldn't even be an MP.
Denbighshire: Lab suspended to Ind
Dumfries & Galloway: Con to Ind
Lancaster: 2 x Con suspended to Ind
Rossendale: Ind readmitted to Lab
Rugby: Con to Ind
South Bucks: Con to Ind
Stratford-on-Avon: Con to Ind
Warrington: Lab to Ind
A couple of the Tories are defending their seats, on the ballot paper as Tories but leaving the party mid campaign
https://electionsetc.com/2016/05/04/calculating-the-local-elections-projected-national-share-pns-in-2015-and-2016/
The ERG are thick and Jezza's most useful idiots.
Mr. Eagles, that's over-egging it... are you sure you're a Yorkshireman?
In a choice between Gove and Corbyn, I'd vote for Corbyn. He's a lot more sensible and centrist.
If the ERG had thought that is.
If.
'...the Brexit situation has developed not necessarily to the ERG's advantage...'
Edit/ yet checking their registration they have only filed the following:
Brexit Party For Leaving the EU 04/04/2019
Brexit Party For A Better Future 04/04/2019
Brexit Party, The One to Trust 04/04/2019
That last one is really naff.
Betting Post
F1: pre-race ramble up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/04/china-pre-race-2019.html
Had a tricky time deciding between three bets. In the end, backed Kvyat to score at 1.9. He's 11th, very similar on pace to those ahead of him. The four cars immediately ahead on the grid have 5 DNFs between them so far, and he has choice of tyres.
The other bets that sorely tempted me (all three seem interesting but no slam dunks, hence just the one tip) were Verstappen for a podium at 2.9 and Magnussen, each way (third the odds top 2), to be winner without the big 6.
https://twitter.com/scotpolitics/status/1116978326122455041
Why a City of Edinburgh Conservative councillor would come to that conclusion is a mystery.
By 2014 Labour were polling 57% with teachers and the Tories were on 16%
His exam reforms have been disastrous - new GCSE grades are currently pretty well worthless, and will remain so for at least a couple of years - his academy programme has made schools less accountable to parents, the school system now runs on naked cronyism of which Spielmann's promotion to run OFSTED is merely the most horrendous example, money has vanished into a great many needless cracks leaving the entire education system chronically underfunded and the number of people taking STEM subjects at A-level is plummeting.
And then the little tosser and that drunken Campbell-lite Cummings have the nerve to blame teachers for his failures, despite the fact we warned him this would happen, and why, and he used mindless abuse (as do his more unpleasant and ignorant supporters) to tell us we were lying. Believe me, it isn't a pleasure to be proved right given the appalling damage that has been done.
And the real tragedy is that his reforms could have been brilliant if done (a) more slowly (b) with some tweaking in light of expert advice and (c) with a level of courage and integrity Gove altogether lacks. He deserves all the opprobrium he gets, and more.
He is worse than Corbyn.
Con GAIN Bootle !!
If Davidson changes runs on a 'Unionist Party' ticket in 2021 she could certainly have a shot at FM
Ironically I find very hot weather equally stressful.
It still doesn't persuade me Gove is worse than Corbyn. Until the Conservatives find themselves a candidate who marches with swastikas and Hitler banners and openly calls himself a fascist, I'm a nailed on Conservative voter at the next General Election because Corbyn's so bloody atrocious.
Con 33.1% Lab 34.7%.
Seats:
Con 274
Lab 288
LD 26
UKIP 0
Green 1
PC 3
SNP 40
NI 18
Labour 38 short of an overall majority. Need SNP for minority government.
I loathe the heat too. Bloody annoys me when chirpy weather forecasters are delighted with cloying conditions in which it's damned hard to sleep.
Mr. W, cutlasses are for fighting, not dancing.
Plus house prices in the South scare me. I own a six bedroomed house, if I sold that all that would get me in the South is a two bedroomed box flat.
He seems to be viewed as the only possibility by those for whom an independent trade policy is a vital issue.
And he's still better than Gove. Gove has damaged the education of millions of children for no other reason than to prove he could and as part of a bizarre and wholly unnecessary vendetta against teachers (which is really strange given he had the backing of most of us at the start). That's totally unacceptable.
Which is why, when he is right, he is such a potent force. His energy and determination are something else. The problem is, his judgement is awful and his willingness to listen to advice that contradicts his own is nil. That means he is utterly unfit to be PM and would probably cause a worse mess than Corbyn (who after all is so dim he would likely not be able to carry out many changes).
Please, please Conservative members - don't do it. Put the country first and elect someone sane as your next leader.
But he would be incapable of negotiating as he simply cannot meet anyone half way. He is right, or he is right. Therefore anyone who contradicts him is wrong.
https://twitter.com/AnnieWellsMSP/status/1116663444193927168
Really looking forward to the 2021 SCon manifesto of introducing tuition fees, restoring prescription charges, lowering tax for high earners and, of course, feebly going along with whatever Brexit Tory HQ has cobbled together at that point.
Who are you, and what have you done with the real IanB2?
[And thanks
Mr. Doethur, then we shall both be pleased when Penny Mordaunt succeeds May.
The Euro polls were pretty on the mark last time, but the obvious question is whether Brexit and UKIP will neatly split the vote as the poll suggests. If they do, Labour will win big time because of the way the UK electoral system for the Euros works, but I suspect Farage will gain ground as the election proceeds.
Change UK have been no help to themselves so far. Tried to find their website earlier and couldn't, seems they are still using the Independent Group. What's their colours, logo, slogan, platform? Seems like it's been confirmed as well that each party will stand separately as well (according to guardian).