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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The May 23rd Euro elections – how the pollsters did last time

SystemSystem Posts: 12,551
edited April 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The May 23rd Euro elections – how the pollsters did last time

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  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,957
    First like the brexit party...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,998
    Labour lead in most polls in 2014, until about three weeks out, when UKIP pulled ahead.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,974
    FWIW

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1117101502714322947?s=19
  • peterbriffapeterbriffa Posts: 23
    The idea that Nigel will still be ranting away in 2074 is scary enough for remainers and leavers alike, I should think.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2019
    The Tories were doing pretty well in the polls until only a couple of weeks ago. It's almost as if they've talked themselves down in popularity since then with their relentlessly gloomy approach, personified by Hammond.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,427
    Foxy said:

    FWIW

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1117101502714322947?s=19

    UKIP and abstainers taking more from the Tories than Labour there
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,110
    Foxy said:

    FWIW

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1117101502714322947?s=19

    You've brought a smile to my face. And thanks for the three points last night!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,998
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    FWIW

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1117101502714322947?s=19

    UKIP and abstainers taking more from the Tories than Labour there
    I expect the other others include some votes for Brexit Party.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,836
    Perhaps Mike shouldn't be so modest and remind us of what he predicted five years ago ?

    If I remember correctly OGH went all in on UKIP not winning the EU elections.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,550
    Today I've walked 22k delivering leaflets with my face on. And despite all the Brexit ranting I read on Facebook haven't had anything other than a cheery response when handing them to a person as opposed to posting through their letter box
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,998
    The EU poll is Labour 29%, Con 17%, UKIP 13%, Brexit 12%, Lib Dem 10%, Green 6%, Change UK 4%.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Tories could be about to lose a lot of councils that have been in their hands for a long time if these polls feed through to the local elections.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,836
    AndyJS said:

    The Tories were doing pretty well in the polls until only a couple of weeks ago. It's almost as if they've talked themselves down in popularity since then with their relentlessly gloomy approach, personified by Hammond.

    Hammond comes across as being disappointed that the country isn't in recession.

    Though the Conservatives as a whole haven't been attempting any positivity for at least six months.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,998
    AndyJS said:

    The Tories were doing pretty well in the polls until only a couple of weeks ago. It's almost as if they've talked themselves down in popularity since then with their relentlessly gloomy approach, personified by Hammond.

    As I said, Letwin was the monkey; Cooper the organ-grinder.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,703
    Mr. JS, at UKIP's last European elections high point, did people split tickets or entirely back UKIP for both MEPs and local councils?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    FPT:

    And for the euros;

    https://www.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1117101882906959873

    Main difference is the Labour vote holding better against remain splitters.

    This poll began earlier than Yougov though.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,125
    edited April 2019
    In Farage’s speech today he told the audience “We are lions led by donkeys”.

    As this is a phrase used by people who follow him around trying to undermine him, is this clever politics or a mistake?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,123
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Today I've walked 22k delivering leaflets with my face on. And despite all the Brexit ranting I read on Facebook haven't had anything other than a cheery response when handing them to a person as opposed to posting through their letter box

    You'd be pushed to think there was an election on here. Couple off Independent posters up, that's about it.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    AndyJS said:

    The Tories could be about to lose a lot of councils that have been in their hands for a long time if these polls feed through to the local elections.

    Brexit and UKIP hardly fielding anyone for the locals. Might make a massive difference
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,998
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. JS, at UKIP's last European elections high point, did people split tickets or entirely back UKIP for both MEPs and local councils?

    There was a lot of split-ticket voting. UKIP did well in the locals in 2014, but IIRC, they won something like 18% per candidate.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,998
    dyedwoolie said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Tories could be about to lose a lot of councils that have been in their hands for a long time if these polls feed through to the local elections.

    Brexit and UKIP hardly fielding anyone for the locals. Might make a massive difference
    UKIP have about 1,400 candidates, who presumably, will do quite well.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,575
    edited April 2019
    I've had a pretty bracing canvassing experience today, here's my observations

    1) The government is as popular you'd expect a government soon to be celebrating its 9th birthday.

    2) There's anger at not delivering Brexit.

    3) There's anger at not stopping Brexit.

    4) A lot of 2 and 3 are united in frustration in that Brexit is occupying in the entire bandwidth of the government and they are taking their eye off the ball on public services. There's more anger in this than 2 and 3.

    5) Local and European elections are a free hit at expressing your frustration at the Tories and which will not see us getting PM Corbyn. A few expressed the view that it was better for the country if Farage and the Kipper loons were sent to Bruxelles than stay here and cause more damage.

    6) Corbyn isn't seen as a PM in waiting.

    7) Nor is Boris and most of the cabinet. Met a teacher who is still pissed off at Gove and won't vote Tory whilst Gove is an MP.

    7) Mrs May might be the only reason the Tory share is holding up. A lot of admiration for her and dealing with the hospital pass of Brexit.

    8) A lot of uncomplimentary comments towards Andrea Jenkyns. At the next GE I'd expect a larger swing against the ERG than regular Tories.

    9) I also think independents will do better than expected in the locals, a lot of voters think they are TIG/CUK.

    If the Tories are going to have an ok nights in the locals they are going to need Labour's lazy voters to stay at home. I think the TPA have spent a lot of money on facebook adverts pointing out the councillors/council staff who earn more than the PM, that was mentioned a few times. Don't be shocked at some surprise gains by the Tories.

    But I'm expecting the Tories to do very badly in the European elections, dockside hooker when the fleet is in territory.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,125
    Although the polling in the thread header looks accurate-ish, they are just the polls in the final three weeks. Prior to that there’d been 30 polls, and UKIP only led in 4.

    This was the time of the strange LADBROKES match bet that had Conservatives fav over UKIP 1/2 6/4, despite UKIP being 2/1 to win the elections and the Tories 10s!

    I said it must be the best bet ever, but someone on here talked me out of it
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    May's decision to court Corbyn on Brexit was a disastrous political decision.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,836
    Sean_F said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Tories were doing pretty well in the polls until only a couple of weeks ago. It's almost as if they've talked themselves down in popularity since then with their relentlessly gloomy approach, personified by Hammond.

    As I said, Letwin was the monkey; Cooper the organ-grinder.
    Its curious that Letwin has been allowed to continue as a front line Conservative politician for so long.

    But there's a sense of deference to politicians even when they have a decades long record of incompetence.

    Are there any other professions where this tolerance of failure is so normalised.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Sean_F said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Tories could be about to lose a lot of councils that have been in their hands for a long time if these polls feed through to the local elections.

    Brexit and UKIP hardly fielding anyone for the locals. Might make a massive difference
    UKIP have about 1,400 candidates, who presumably, will do quite well.
    As many as that? Hmmmmm thry might do well then
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,605
    Labours message should be . The Tories refused to compromise , we did our best .

    To Leavers , we can’t allow a damaging Tory Brexit and are left with no choice but to have a second vote and let the public decide .

    To Remainers , the same , pro EU voters will just be happy to see a second vote.

    This holds onto their very large Remain vote and reduces the Leave vote losses . The Labour Party need to come out strong for this now and stop the waffle .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,427
    edited April 2019
    dyedwoolie said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Tories could be about to lose a lot of councils that have been in their hands for a long time if these polls feed through to the local elections.

    Brexit and UKIP hardly fielding anyone for the locals. Might make a massive difference
    Exactly, the Tories will hold a lot of seats in the locals they might otherwise have lost as less than a quarter of seats will have a UKIP candidate and barely any a Brexit Party candidate so the Tory Leave vote will not be split.

    In the European elections it will be a different story as there are fewer candidates needed and they will be conducted under PR not FPTP with a full slate of Brexit Party and UKIP candidates in every region
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,023
    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1117103787062198272?s=21
  • isamisam Posts: 42,125
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've had a pretty bracing canvassing experience today, here's my observations

    1) The government is as popular you'd expect a government soon to be celebrating its 9th birthday.

    2) There's anger at not delivering Brexit.

    3) There's anger at not stopping Brexit.

    4) A lot of 2 and 3 are united in frustration in that Brexit is occupying in the entire bandwidth of the government and they are taking their eye off the ball on public services. There's more anger in this than 2 and 3.

    5) Local and European elections are a free hit at expressing your frustration at the Tories and which will not see us getting PM Corbyn. A few expressed the view that it was better for the country if Farage and the Kipper loons were sent to Bruxelles than stay here and cause more damage.

    6) Corbyn isn't seen as a PM in waiting.

    7) Nor is Boris and most of the cabinet. Met a teacher who is still pissed off at Gove and won't vote Tory whilst Gove is an MP.

    7) Mrs May might be the only reason the Tory share is holding up. A lot of admiration for her and dealing with the hospital pass of Brexit.

    8) A lot of uncomplimentary comments towards Andrea Jenkyns. At the next GE I'd expect a larger swing against the ERG than regular Tories.

    9) I also think independents will do better than expected in the locals, a lot of voters think they are TIG/CUK.

    If the Tories are going to have an ok nights in the locals they are going to need Labour's lazy voters to stay at home. I think the TPA have spent a lot of money on facebook adverts pointing out the councillors/council staff who earn more than the PM, that was mentioned a few times. Don't be shocked at some surprise gains by the Tories.

    But I'm expecting the Tories to do very badly in the European elections, dockside hooker when the fleet is in territory.

    I think a lot of people across the country agree with 7. My mum is extremely sympathetic to TM, and she wouldnt vote Tory if her life depended on it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,454
    FPT, this has got to be the biggest joke of all time, there is as much chance of Davidson being FM as me being an Olympic champion. Happy to put a wager on that it will not ever happen.
    HYUFD said:

    » show previous quotes
    The Tories got 28.6% in Scotland at GE17 but only 27.2% in Edinburgh Leith.

    Thus Ruth Davidson could become First Minister and the Scottish Tories win a majority of MPs at Westminster and MSPs at Holyrood and still lose Edinburgh Leith
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,998
    nico67 said:

    Labours message should be . The Tories refused to compromise , we did our best .

    To Leavers , we can’t allow a damaging Tory Brexit and are left with no choice but to have a second vote and let the public decide .

    To Remainers , the same , pro EU voters will just be happy to see a second vote.

    This holds onto their very large Remain vote and reduces the Leave vote losses . The Labour Party need to come out strong for this now and stop the waffle .

    That will appeal to Remainers, but not Leavers.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited April 2019
    The Tories coming third last time will limit the damage after the European Elections. Their vote share will fall but ultimately they were beaten by a Eurosceptic party last time and so this will be no different. They should be able to retain third place.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,905
    malcolmg said:

    FPT, this has got to be the biggest joke of all time, there is as much chance of Davidson being FM as me being an Olympic champion. Happy to put a wager on that it will not ever happen.
    HYUFD said:

    » show previous quotes
    The Tories got 28.6% in Scotland at GE17 but only 27.2% in Edinburgh Leith.

    Thus Ruth Davidson could become First Minister and the Scottish Tories win a majority of MPs at Westminster and MSPs at Holyrood and still lose Edinburgh Leith

    Agree. As if the Scottish Tories didn't have enough handicaps, they are now the Brexit Party as well. Tbf there is a unionist Brexit vote, but not enough to get anywhere near first place.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,454
    Sean_F said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Tories were doing pretty well in the polls until only a couple of weeks ago. It's almost as if they've talked themselves down in popularity since then with their relentlessly gloomy approach, personified by Hammond.

    As I said, Letwin was the monkey; Cooper the organ-grinder.
    LOL, dream on , both donkeys or useful idiots at best.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,427
    Artist said:

    May's decision to court Corbyn on Brexit was a disastrous political decision.

    Longer term still better than the threat to the Union and economy from No Deal.

    The Tories can always pick a hard Brexiteer as leader once May goes before the next general election
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,605
    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    Labours message should be . The Tories refused to compromise , we did our best .

    To Leavers , we can’t allow a damaging Tory Brexit and are left with no choice but to have a second vote and let the public decide .

    To Remainers , the same , pro EU voters will just be happy to see a second vote.

    This holds onto their very large Remain vote and reduces the Leave vote losses . The Labour Party need to come out strong for this now and stop the waffle .

    That will appeal to Remainers, but not Leavers.
    The message to Leavers you could have a better Labour Brexit but the Tories refused to compromise . It’s not about holding on to all their leavers but stemming some of the losses .
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,836
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've had a pretty bracing canvassing experience today, here's my observations

    1) The government is as popular you'd expect a government soon to be celebrating its 9th birthday.

    2) There's anger at not delivering Brexit.

    3) There's anger at not stopping Brexit.

    4) A lot of 2 and 3 are united in frustration in that Brexit is occupying in the entire bandwidth of the government and they are taking their eye off the ball on public services. There's more anger in this than 2 and 3.

    5) Local and European elections are a free hit at expressing your frustration at the Tories and which will not see us getting PM Corbyn. A few expressed the view that it was better for the country if Farage and the Kipper loons were sent to Bruxelles than stay here and cause more damage.

    6) Corbyn isn't seen as a PM in waiting.

    7) Nor is Boris and most of the cabinet. Met a teacher who is still pissed off at Gove and won't vote Tory whilst Gove is an MP.

    7) Mrs May might be the only reason the Tory share is holding up. A lot of admiration for her and dealing with the hospital pass of Brexit.

    8) A lot of uncomplimentary comments towards Andrea Jenkyns. At the next GE I'd expect a larger swing against the ERG than regular Tories.

    9) I also think independents will do better than expected in the locals, a lot of voters think they are TIG/CUK.

    If the Tories are going to have an ok nights in the locals they are going to need Labour's lazy voters to stay at home. I think the TPA have spent a lot of money on facebook adverts pointing out the councillors/council staff who earn more than the PM, that was mentioned a few times. Don't be shocked at some surprise gains by the Tories.

    But I'm expecting the Tories to do very badly in the European elections, dockside hooker when the fleet is in territory.

    Thanks.

    Were you canvassing in Wrenthorpe & Outwood West ?

    And is it Leave voters who are angry about Andrea Jenkyns ?

    But that does suggest the ERG plan of overthrowing May and replacing her with Raab might not be a vote winner.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,597
    another_richard said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've had a pretty bracing canvassing experience today, here's my observations

    1) The government is as popular you'd expect a government soon to be celebrating its 9th birthday.

    2) There's anger at not delivering Brexit.

    3) There's anger at not stopping Brexit.

    4) A lot of 2 and 3 are united in frustration in that Brexit is occupying in the entire bandwidth of the government and they are taking their eye off the ball on public services. There's more anger in this than 2 and 3.

    5) Local and European elections are a free hit at expressing your frustration at the Tories and which will not see us getting PM Corbyn. A few expressed the view that it was better for the country if Farage and the Kipper loons were sent to Bruxelles than stay here and cause more damage.

    6) Corbyn isn't seen as a PM in waiting.

    7) Nor is Boris and most of the cabinet. Met a teacher who is still pissed off at Gove and won't vote Tory whilst Gove is an MP.

    7) Mrs May might be the only reason the Tory share is holding up. A lot of admiration for her and dealing with the hospital pass of Brexit.

    8) A lot of uncomplimentary comments towards Andrea Jenkyns. At the next GE I'd expect a larger swing against the ERG than regular Tories.

    9) I also think independents will do better than expected in the locals, a lot of voters think they are TIG/CUK.

    If the Tories are going to have an ok nights in the locals they are going to need Labour's lazy voters to stay at home. I think the TPA have spent a lot of money on facebook adverts pointing out the councillors/council staff who earn more than the PM, that was mentioned a few times. Don't be shocked at some surprise gains by the Tories.

    But I'm expecting the Tories to do very badly in the European elections, dockside hooker when the fleet is in territory.

    Thanks.

    Were you canvassing in Wrenthorpe & Outwood West ?

    And is it Leave voters who are angry about Andrea Jenkyns ?

    But that does suggest the ERG plan of overthrowing May and replacing her with Raab might not be a vote winner.
    If it is an ERG plan then pretty safe bet they will fluff it all up and end up electing Rudd.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2019
    brokenwheel said:

    FPT:

    And for the euros;

    https://www.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1117101882906959873

    Main difference is the Labour vote holding better against remain splitters.

    This poll began earlier than Yougov though.

    I was saying yesterday it can't be assumed the Brexit Party will automatically beat UKIP. A lot of people will assume Farage is still leader of UKIP.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,703
    Mr. Eagles, interesting comments (and I hope you had a warm coat, the wind was a bit bracing too).

    Mildly surprised by the Jenkyns specific comments given the strong sceptical support in this area (UKIP did relatively well here an election or two ago).

    By neither facilitating departure nor revocation, the Government forfeiting the support of both sides is perhaps unsurprising.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,836
    Artist said:

    May's decision to court Corbyn on Brexit was a disastrous political decision.

    The alternative was crash-out No Deal against the wishes of Parliament.

    With Fox and Grayling in charge of Trade and Transport.

    High risk. Very, very high risk.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,998
    another_richard said:

    Sean_F said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Tories were doing pretty well in the polls until only a couple of weeks ago. It's almost as if they've talked themselves down in popularity since then with their relentlessly gloomy approach, personified by Hammond.

    As I said, Letwin was the monkey; Cooper the organ-grinder.
    Its curious that Letwin has been allowed to continue as a front line Conservative politician for so long.

    But there's a sense of deference to politicians even when they have a decades long record of incompetence.

    Are there any other professions where this tolerance of failure is so normalised.
    There are only so many defeats the government can sustain, before it undermines their standing.

    I could understand going for the indicative votes, but requiring the government to apply to extend A50 was just dancing to Labour's tune.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    AndyJS said:

    The Tories were doing pretty well in the polls until only a couple of weeks ago. It's almost as if they've talked themselves down in popularity since then with their relentlessly gloomy approach, personified by Hammond.

    The only thing that's 'talked down the Tories' are the ERG ****** sabotaging their own Party by refusing to pass the WA. If it had gone through, the country would be breathing a huge sigh of relief and the Tories would be 10 points clear of Labour, not staring down the barrel of a Stupid Communist majority government.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,575
    another_richard said:


    Thanks.

    Were you canvassing in Wrenthorpe & Outwood West ?

    And is it Leave voters who are angry about Andrea Jenkyns ?

    But that does suggest the ERG plan of overthrowing May and replacing her with Raab might not be a vote winner.

    Leavers and Remainers angry at Jenkyns. She's seen as obsessing about Brexit, as per point 4) and that she's trying to make a name for herself.

    One person mentioned Jenkyns stabbing Cameron in the back, said if it wasn't for Cameron Jenkyns wouldn't even be an MP.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,023
    nico67 said:

    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    Labours message should be . The Tories refused to compromise , we did our best .

    To Leavers , we can’t allow a damaging Tory Brexit and are left with no choice but to have a second vote and let the public decide .

    To Remainers , the same , pro EU voters will just be happy to see a second vote.

    This holds onto their very large Remain vote and reduces the Leave vote losses . The Labour Party need to come out strong for this now and stop the waffle .

    That will appeal to Remainers, but not Leavers.
    The message to Leavers you could have a better Labour Brexit but the Tories refused to compromise . It’s not about holding on to all their leavers but stemming some of the losses .
    According to the latest YouGov poll, the Labour vote is now more heavily pro-Remain even than the Lib Dem vote, which has become more of a mixed bag.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,905
    edited April 2019
    As last week, local councillor defections continue at a well above average rate:

    Denbighshire: Lab suspended to Ind
    Dumfries & Galloway: Con to Ind
    Lancaster: 2 x Con suspended to Ind
    Rossendale: Ind readmitted to Lab
    Rugby: Con to Ind
    South Bucks: Con to Ind
    Stratford-on-Avon: Con to Ind
    Warrington: Lab to Ind

    A couple of the Tories are defending their seats, on the ballot paper as Tories but leaving the party mid campaign
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. JS, at UKIP's last European elections high point, did people split tickets or entirely back UKIP for both MEPs and local councils?

    UKIP polled about 17% at the 2014 local elections compared to 27% at the Euro election, although that might have been because they didn't put up candidates in a lot of wards.

    https://electionsetc.com/2016/05/04/calculating-the-local-elections-projected-national-share-pns-in-2015-and-2016/
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,836
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:


    Thanks.

    Were you canvassing in Wrenthorpe & Outwood West ?

    And is it Leave voters who are angry about Andrea Jenkyns ?

    But that does suggest the ERG plan of overthrowing May and replacing her with Raab might not be a vote winner.

    Leavers and Remainers angry at Jenkyns. She's seen as obsessing about Brexit, as per point 4) and that she's trying to make a name for herself.

    One person mentioned Jenkyns stabbing Cameron in the back, said if it wasn't for Cameron Jenkyns wouldn't even be an MP.
    That person wasn't you by any chance ?

    :wink:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,575
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, interesting comments (and I hope you had a warm coat, the wind was a bit bracing too).

    Mildly surprised by the Jenkyns specific comments given the strong sceptical support in this area (UKIP did relatively well here an election or two ago).

    By neither facilitating departure nor revocation, the Government forfeiting the support of both sides is perhaps unsurprising.

    I was wearing my big North Face coat, that only comes out during snow or freezing weather.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,597
    blueblue said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Tories were doing pretty well in the polls until only a couple of weeks ago. It's almost as if they've talked themselves down in popularity since then with their relentlessly gloomy approach, personified by Hammond.

    The only thing that's 'talked down the Tories' are the ERG ****** sabotaging their own Party by refusing to pass the WA. If it had gone through, the country would be breathing a huge sigh of relief and the Tories would be 10 points clear of Labour, not staring down the barrel of a Stupid Communist majority government.
    Difficult to argue with that.

    The ERG are thick and Jezza's most useful idiots.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,575
    another_richard said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:


    Thanks.

    Were you canvassing in Wrenthorpe & Outwood West ?

    And is it Leave voters who are angry about Andrea Jenkyns ?

    But that does suggest the ERG plan of overthrowing May and replacing her with Raab might not be a vote winner.

    Leavers and Remainers angry at Jenkyns. She's seen as obsessing about Brexit, as per point 4) and that she's trying to make a name for herself.

    One person mentioned Jenkyns stabbing Cameron in the back, said if it wasn't for Cameron Jenkyns wouldn't even be an MP.
    That person wasn't you by any chance ?

    :wink:
    No, I'm not a voter in this seat.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Artist said:

    The Tories coming third last time will limit the damage after the European Elections. Their vote share will fall but ultimately they were beaten by a Eurosceptic party last time and so this will be no different. They should be able to retain third place.

    On the other hand if they get pushed into fourth place it might be difficult to recover from.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,046
    malcolmg said:

    FPT, this has got to be the biggest joke of all time, there is as much chance of Davidson being FM as me being an Olympic champion.

    Are you saying your ability to hurl turnips hundreds of miles has not been recognised with an Olympic gold?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,836
    rottenborough said:

    another_richard said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've had a pretty bracing canvassing experience today, here's my observations

    1) The government is as popular you'd expect a government soon to be celebrating its 9th birthday.

    2) There's anger at not delivering Brexit.

    3) There's anger at not stopping Brexit.

    4) A lot of 2 and 3 are united in frustration in that Brexit is occupying in the entire bandwidth of the government and they are taking their eye off the ball on public services. There's more anger in this than 2 and 3.

    5) Local and European elections are a free hit at expressing your frustration at the Tories and which will not see us getting PM Corbyn. A few expressed the view that it was better for the country if Farage and the Kipper loons were sent to Bruxelles than stay here and cause more damage.

    6) Corbyn isn't seen as a PM in waiting.

    7) Nor is Boris and most of the cabinet. Met a teacher who is still pissed off at Gove and won't vote Tory whilst Gove is an MP.

    7) Mrs May might be the only reason the Tory share is holding up. A lot of admiration for her and dealing with the hospital pass of Brexit.

    8) A lot of uncomplimentary comments towards Andrea Jenkyns. At the next GE I'd expect a larger swing against the ERG than regular Tories.

    9) I also think independents will do better than expected in the locals, a lot of voters think they are TIG/CUK.

    If the Tories are going to have an ok nights in the locals they are going to need Labour's lazy voters to stay at home. I think the TPA have spent a lot of money on facebook adverts pointing out the councillors/council staff who earn more than the PM, that was mentioned a few times. Don't be shocked at some surprise gains by the Tories.

    But I'm expecting the Tories to do very badly in the European elections, dockside hooker when the fleet is in territory.

    Thanks.

    Were you canvassing in Wrenthorpe & Outwood West ?

    And is it Leave voters who are angry about Andrea Jenkyns ?

    But that does suggest the ERG plan of overthrowing May and replacing her with Raab might not be a vote winner.
    If it is an ERG plan then pretty safe bet they will fluff it all up and end up electing Rudd.
    I'm confident in saying that things haven't proceeded in the way the ERG expected six months ago.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've had a pretty bracing canvassing experience today, here's my observations

    1) The government is as popular you'd expect a government soon to be celebrating its 9th birthday.

    2) There's anger at not delivering Brexit.

    3) There's anger at not stopping Brexit.

    4) A lot of 2 and 3 are united in frustration in that Brexit is occupying in the entire bandwidth of the government and they are taking their eye off the ball on public services. There's more anger in this than 2 and 3.

    5) Local and European elections are a free hit at expressing your frustration at the Tories and which will not see us getting PM Corbyn. A few expressed the view that it was better for the country if Farage and the Kipper loons were sent to Bruxelles than stay here and cause more damage.

    6) Corbyn isn't seen as a PM in waiting.

    7) Nor is Boris and most of the cabinet. Met a teacher who is still pissed off at Gove and won't vote Tory whilst Gove is an MP.

    7) Mrs May might be the only reason the Tory share is holding up. A lot of admiration for her and dealing with the hospital pass of Brexit.

    8) A lot of uncomplimentary comments towards Andrea Jenkyns. At the next GE I'd expect a larger swing against the ERG than regular Tories.

    9) I also think independents will do better than expected in the locals, a lot of voters think they are TIG/CUK.

    If the Tories are going to have an ok nights in the locals they are going to need Labour's lazy voters to stay at home. I think the TPA have spent a lot of money on facebook adverts pointing out the councillors/council staff who earn more than the PM, that was mentioned a few times. Don't be shocked at some surprise gains by the Tories.

    But I'm expecting the Tories to do very badly in the European elections, dockside hooker when the fleet is in territory.

    Almost the entire teaching profession is left-wing so it's no surprise they're annoyed at a sensible, moderate, centrist like Michael Gove.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,125
    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    Labours message should be . The Tories refused to compromise , we did our best .

    To Leavers , we can’t allow a damaging Tory Brexit and are left with no choice but to have a second vote and let the public decide .

    To Remainers , the same , pro EU voters will just be happy to see a second vote.

    This holds onto their very large Remain vote and reduces the Leave vote losses . The Labour Party need to come out strong for this now and stop the waffle .

    That will appeal to Remainers, but not Leavers.
    Remain/Leave isnt a party political thing, no matter how MPs try to turn it in to one
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,597
    another_richard said:


    rottenborough said:

    another_richard said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've had a pretty bracing canvassing experience today, here's my observations

    1) The government is as popular you'd expect a government soon to be celebrating its 9th birthday.

    2) There's anger at not delivering Brexit.

    3) There's anger at not stopping Brexit.

    4) A lot of 2 and 3 are united in frustration in that Brexit is occupying in the entire bandwidth of the government and they are taking their eye off the ball on public services. There's more anger in this than 2 and 3.

    5) Local and European elections are a free hit at expressing your frustration at the Tories and which will not see us getting PM Corbyn. A few expressed the view that it was better for the country if Farage and the Kipper loons were sent to Bruxelles than stay here and cause more damage.

    6) Corbyn isn't seen as a PM in waiting.

    7) Nor is Boris and most of the cabinet. Met a teacher who is still pissed off at Gove and won't vote Tory whilst Gove is an MP.

    7) Mrs May might be the only reason the Tory share is holding up. A lot of admiration for her and dealing with the hospital pass of Brexit.

    8) A lot of uncomplimentary comments towards Andrea Jenkyns. At the next GE I'd expect a larger swing against the ERG than regular Tories.

    9) I also think independents will do better than expected in the locals, a lot of voters think they are TIG/CUK.

    If the Tories are going to have an ok nights in the locals they are going to need Labour's lazy voters to stay at home. I think the TPA have spent a lot of money on facebook adverts pointing out the councillors/council staff who earn more than the PM, that was mentioned a few times. Don't be shocked at some surprise gains by the Tories.

    But I'm expecting the Tories to do very badly in the European elections, dockside hooker when the fleet is in territory.

    Thanks.

    Were you canvassing in Wrenthorpe & Outwood West ?

    And is it Leave voters who are angry about Andrea Jenkyns ?

    But that does suggest the ERG plan of overthrowing May and replacing her with Raab might not be a vote winner.
    If it is an ERG plan then pretty safe bet they will fluff it all up and end up electing Rudd.
    I'm confident in saying that things haven't proceeded in the way the ERG expected six months ago.
    :lol:
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,703
    Mr. JS, thanks for that answer.

    Mr. Eagles, that's over-egging it... are you sure you're a Yorkshireman? :p
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,046
    edited April 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Almost the entire teaching profession is left-wing so it's no surprise they're annoyed at a sensible, moderate, centrist like Michael Gove.

    I wouldn't call myself left wing.

    In a choice between Gove and Corbyn, I'd vote for Corbyn. He's a lot more sensible and centrist.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,905
    williamglenn said:

    nico67 said:

    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    Labours message should be . The Tories refused to compromise , we did our best .

    To Leavers , we can’t allow a damaging Tory Brexit and are left with no choice but to have a second vote and let the public decide .

    To Remainers , the same , pro EU voters will just be happy to see a second vote.

    This holds onto their very large Remain vote and reduces the Leave vote losses . The Labour Party need to come out strong for this now and stop the waffle .

    That will appeal to Remainers, but not Leavers.
    The message to Leavers you could have a better Labour Brexit but the Tories refused to compromise . It’s not about holding on to all their leavers but stemming some of the losses .
    According to the latest YouGov poll, the Labour vote is now more heavily pro-Remain even than the Lib Dem vote, which has become more of a mixed bag.
    Very marginally on the right/wrong to leave score, well within margin of error. On the 2016 referendum vote current LibDems are 4:1 Remain whereas Labour is 3:1
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,550
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, interesting comments (and I hope you had a warm coat, the wind was a bit bracing too).

    Mildly surprised by the Jenkyns specific comments given the strong sceptical support in this area (UKIP did relatively well here an election or two ago).

    By neither facilitating departure nor revocation, the Government forfeiting the support of both sides is perhaps unsurprising.

    I was wearing my big North Face coat, that only comes out during snow or freezing weather.
    Wuss. Wind has been strong enough to bang a few garden gates after I'd opened them, but still managed a (culmulative) seven and a half hours wearing only a fleece
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    JackW said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. D, as 'PB Tory', I don't want to vote for Farage, I don't want to vote for UKIP, and voting Conservative might be misinterpreted as support for the wretched May.

    Obviously I'm not voting Communist, Green, or Lib Dem.

    My current plan for the European elections is to hope the Pirate Party is standing.

    Morris_Dancer walks the plank .... :smile:
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,703
    Mr. Doethur, that's surprising and depressing to read.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,836
    blueblue said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Tories were doing pretty well in the polls until only a couple of weeks ago. It's almost as if they've talked themselves down in popularity since then with their relentlessly gloomy approach, personified by Hammond.

    The only thing that's 'talked down the Tories' are the ERG ****** sabotaging their own Party by refusing to pass the WA. If it had gone through, the country would be breathing a huge sigh of relief and the Tories would be 10 points clear of Labour, not staring down the barrel of a Stupid Communist majority government.
    If the ERG had thought for a while they would have seen that passing the WA, replacing May with one of their own allies and then discarding the bits of the WA they didn't like when the time came was easily possible.

    If the ERG had thought that is.

    If.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    rottenborough said:

    another_richard said:


    rottenborough said:

    another_richard said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've had a pretty bracing canvassing experience today, here's my observations

    1) The government is as popular you'd expect a government soon to be celebrating its 9th birthday.

    2) There's anger at not delivering Brexit.

    3) There's anger at not stopping Brexit.

    4) A lot of 2 and 3 are united in frustration in that Brexit is occupying in the entire bandwidth of the government and they are taking their eye off the ball on public services. There's more anger in this than 2 and 3.

    5) Local and European elections are a free hit at expressing your frustration at the Tories and which will not see us getting PM Corbyn. A few expressed the view that it was better for the country if Farage and the Kipper loons were sent to Bruxelles than stay here and cause more damage.

    6) Corbyn isn't seen as a PM in waiting.

    7) Nor is Boris and most of the cabinet. Met a teacher who is still pissed off at Gove and won't vote Tory whilst Gove is an MP.

    7) Mrs May might be the only reason the Tory share is holding up. A lot of admiration for her and dealing with the hospital pass of Brexit.

    8) A lot of uncomplimentary comments towards Andrea Jenkyns. At the next GE I'd expect a larger swing against the ERG than regular Tories.

    9) I also think independents will do better than expected in the locals, a lot of voters think they are TIG/CUK.

    If the Tories are going to have an ok nights in the locals they are going to need Labour's lazy voters to stay at home. I think the TPA have spent a lot of money on facebook adverts pointing out the councillors/council staff who earn more than the PM, that was mentioned a few times. Don't be shocked at some surprise gains by the Tories.

    But I'm expecting the Tories to do very badly in the European elections, dockside hooker when the fleet is in territory.

    Thanks.

    Were you canvassing in Wrenthorpe & Outwood West ?

    And is it Leave voters who are angry about Andrea Jenkyns ?

    But that does suggest the ERG plan of overthrowing May and replacing her with Raab might not be a vote winner.
    If it is an ERG plan then pretty safe bet they will fluff it all up and end up electing Rudd.
    I'm confident in saying that things haven't proceeded in the way the ERG expected six months ago.
    :lol:
    I'm waiting for the official Rees-Mogg broadcast:

    '...the Brexit situation has developed not necessarily to the ERG's advantage...'
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,905
    edited April 2019
    AndyJS said:

    brokenwheel said:

    FPT:

    And for the euros;

    https://www.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1117101882906959873

    Main difference is the Labour vote holding better against remain splitters.

    This poll began earlier than Yougov though.

    I was saying yesterday it can't be assumed the Brexit Party will automatically beat UKIP. A lot of people will assume Farage is still leader of UKIP.
    If Brexit is clever they will stand under the strapline "Nigel Farage's Brexit Party". They'd only need to register the strapline with the EC

    Edit/ yet checking their registration they have only filed the following:

    Brexit Party For Leaving the EU 04/04/2019
    Brexit Party For A Better Future 04/04/2019
    Brexit Party, The One to Trust 04/04/2019

    That last one is really naff.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,998
    AndyJS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've had a pretty bracing canvassing experience today, here's my observations

    1) The government is as popular you'd expect a government soon to be celebrating its 9th birthday.

    2) There's anger at not delivering Brexit.

    3) There's anger at not stopping Brexit.

    4) A lot of 2 and 3 are united in frustration in that Brexit is occupying in the entire bandwidth of the government and they are taking their eye off the ball on public services. There's more anger in this than 2 and 3.

    5) Local and European elections are a free hit at expressing your frustration at the Tories and which will not see us getting PM Corbyn. A few expressed the view that it was better for the country if Farage and the Kipper loons were sent to Bruxelles than stay here and cause more damage.

    6) Corbyn isn't seen as a PM in waiting.

    7) Nor is Boris and most of the cabinet. Met a teacher who is still pissed off at Gove and won't vote Tory whilst Gove is an MP.

    7) Mrs May might be the only reason the Tory share is holding up. A lot of admiration for her and dealing with the hospital pass of Brexit.

    8) A lot of uncomplimentary comments towards Andrea Jenkyns. At the next GE I'd expect a larger swing against the ERG than regular Tories.

    9) I also think independents will do better than expected in the locals, a lot of voters think they are TIG/CUK.

    If the Tories are going to have an ok nights in the locals they are going to need Labour's lazy voters to stay at home. I think the TPA have spent a lot of money on facebook adverts pointing out the councillors/council staff who earn more than the PM, that was mentioned a few times. Don't be shocked at some surprise gains by the Tories.

    But I'm expecting the Tories to do very badly in the European elections, dockside hooker when the fleet is in territory.

    Almost the entire teaching profession is left-wing so it's no surprise they're annoyed at a sensible, moderate, centrist like Michael Gove.
    I'm afraid Gove is widely disliked by the voters generally.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,703
    Betting Post

    F1: pre-race ramble up here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/04/china-pre-race-2019.html

    Had a tricky time deciding between three bets. In the end, backed Kvyat to score at 1.9. He's 11th, very similar on pace to those ahead of him. The four cars immediately ahead on the grid have 5 DNFs between them so far, and he has choice of tyres.

    The other bets that sorely tempted me (all three seem interesting but no slam dunks, hence just the one tip) were Verstappen for a podium at 2.9 and Magnussen, each way (third the odds top 2), to be winner without the big 6.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,703
    Mr. W, my wiffle stick shall never be spliced!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,191
    IanB2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    FPT, this has got to be the biggest joke of all time, there is as much chance of Davidson being FM as me being an Olympic champion. Happy to put a wager on that it will not ever happen.
    HYUFD said:

    » show previous quotes
    The Tories got 28.6% in Scotland at GE17 but only 27.2% in Edinburgh Leith.

    Thus Ruth Davidson could become First Minister and the Scottish Tories win a majority of MPs at Westminster and MSPs at Holyrood and still lose Edinburgh Leith

    Agree. As if the Scottish Tories didn't have enough handicaps, they are now the Brexit Party as well. Tbf there is a unionist Brexit vote, but not enough to get anywhere near first place.
    There is an alternative view.

    https://twitter.com/scotpolitics/status/1116978326122455041

    Why a City of Edinburgh Conservative councillor would come to that conclusion is a mystery.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,575
    AndyJS said:

    Almost the entire teaching profession is left-wing so it's no surprise they're annoyed at a sensible, moderate, centrist like Michael Gove.

    In 2010 the Tories polled 33% of the vote with teachers, Labour polled 32%.

    By 2014 Labour were polling 57% with teachers and the Tories were on 16%
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,046
    edited April 2019
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Doethur, that's surprising and depressing to read.

    Why? Why should I vote for a man who drives through ideas based on tin-eared prejudices and a hatred of smart people with predictably disastrous results? (And no, that's not a reference to Corbyn.)

    His exam reforms have been disastrous - new GCSE grades are currently pretty well worthless, and will remain so for at least a couple of years - his academy programme has made schools less accountable to parents, the school system now runs on naked cronyism of which Spielmann's promotion to run OFSTED is merely the most horrendous example, money has vanished into a great many needless cracks leaving the entire education system chronically underfunded and the number of people taking STEM subjects at A-level is plummeting.

    And then the little tosser and that drunken Campbell-lite Cummings have the nerve to blame teachers for his failures, despite the fact we warned him this would happen, and why, and he used mindless abuse (as do his more unpleasant and ignorant supporters) to tell us we were lying. Believe me, it isn't a pleasure to be proved right given the appalling damage that has been done.

    And the real tragedy is that his reforms could have been brilliant if done (a) more slowly (b) with some tweaking in light of expert advice and (c) with a level of courage and integrity Gove altogether lacks. He deserves all the opprobrium he gets, and more.

    He is worse than Corbyn.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,577
    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    brokenwheel said:

    FPT:

    And for the euros;

    https://www.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1117101882906959873

    Main difference is the Labour vote holding better against remain splitters.

    This poll began earlier than Yougov though.

    I was saying yesterday it can't be assumed the Brexit Party will automatically beat UKIP. A lot of people will assume Farage is still leader of UKIP.
    If Brexit is clever they will stand under the strapline "Nigel Farage's Brexit Party". They'd only need to register the strapline with the EC

    Edit/ yet checking their registration they have only filed the following:

    Brexit Party For Leaving the EU 04/04/2019
    Brexit Party For A Better Future 04/04/2019
    Brexit Party, The One to Trust 04/04/2019

    That last one is really naff.
    Not when you consider the abject failure of the other parties to deliver Brexit. :p
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,032
    edited April 2019
    Not-so-shy UKIP supporters. ;-)
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    But I'm expecting the Tories to do very badly in the European elections, dockside hooker when the fleet is in territory.

    Clearly I defer to you in respect to your vast experience of dockside hookers but I'd venture to suggest that the fleet in port would ensure a spike in trade for ladies whose sexual inclinations stretch to old sea dogs.

    Con GAIN Bootle !!

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,427
    IanB2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    FPT, this has got to be the biggest joke of all time, there is as much chance of Davidson being FM as me being an Olympic champion. Happy to put a wager on that it will not ever happen.
    HYUFD said:

    » show previous quotes
    The Tories got 28.6% in Scotland at GE17 but only 27.2% in Edinburgh Leith.

    Thus Ruth Davidson could become First Minister and the Scottish Tories win a majority of MPs at Westminster and MSPs at Holyrood and still lose Edinburgh Leith

    Agree. As if the Scottish Tories didn't have enough handicaps, they are now the Brexit Party as well. Tbf there is a unionist Brexit vote, but not enough to get anywhere near first place.
    Except they are not, we are still in the EU and that is the reason a non Tory Brexit Party has been created.

    If Davidson changes runs on a 'Unionist Party' ticket in 2021 she could certainly have a shot at FM
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,575
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. JS, thanks for that answer.

    Mr. Eagles, that's over-egging it... are you sure you're a Yorkshireman? :p

    I'm a diabetic and suffer from a few other ailments, I have to avoid the cold like a vampire has to avoid sunlight.

    Ironically I find very hot weather equally stressful.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,703
    Mr. Doethur, let us assume all that is correct.

    It still doesn't persuade me Gove is worse than Corbyn. Until the Conservatives find themselves a candidate who marches with swastikas and Hitler banners and openly calls himself a fascist, I'm a nailed on Conservative voter at the next General Election because Corbyn's so bloody atrocious.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. W, my wiffle stick shall never be spliced!

    No morris dancing with cutlasses then ?!?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,905
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. JS, thanks for that answer.

    Mr. Eagles, that's over-egging it... are you sure you're a Yorkshireman? :p

    I'm a diabetic and suffer from a few other ailments, I have to avoid the cold like a vampire has to avoid sunlight.

    Ironically I find very hot weather equally stressful.
    You need to find somewhere nice on the south coast. Warm in winter and cool in summer.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,208
    Adding the latest three polls (Kantar, YouGov and Opinium) into the EMA gives:

    Con 33.1% Lab 34.7%.

    Seats:
    Con 274
    Lab 288
    LD 26
    UKIP 0
    Green 1
    PC 3
    SNP 40
    NI 18

    Labour 38 short of an overall majority. Need SNP for minority government.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,905
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    FPT, this has got to be the biggest joke of all time, there is as much chance of Davidson being FM as me being an Olympic champion. Happy to put a wager on that it will not ever happen.
    HYUFD said:

    » show previous quotes
    The Tories got 28.6% in Scotland at GE17 but only 27.2% in Edinburgh Leith.

    Thus Ruth Davidson could become First Minister and the Scottish Tories win a majority of MPs at Westminster and MSPs at Holyrood and still lose Edinburgh Leith

    Agree. As if the Scottish Tories didn't have enough handicaps, they are now the Brexit Party as well. Tbf there is a unionist Brexit vote, but not enough to get anywhere near first place.
    Except they are not, we are still in the EU and that is the reason a non Tory Brexit Party has been created.

    If Davidson changes runs on a 'Unionist Party' ticket in 2021 she could certainly have a shot at FM
    She'd have to break with the dead hand of the UK party. Which would be interesting.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,703
    Mr. Eagles, ah, then fair enough.

    I loathe the heat too. Bloody annoys me when chirpy weather forecasters are delighted with cloying conditions in which it's damned hard to sleep.

    Mr. W, cutlasses are for fighting, not dancing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,905
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Betting Post

    F1: pre-race ramble up here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/04/china-pre-race-2019.html

    Had a tricky time deciding between three bets. In the end, backed Kvyat to score at 1.9. He's 11th, very similar on pace to those ahead of him. The four cars immediately ahead on the grid have 5 DNFs between them so far, and he has choice of tyres.

    The other bets that sorely tempted me (all three seem interesting but no slam dunks, hence just the one tip) were Verstappen for a podium at 2.9 and Magnussen, each way (third the odds top 2), to be winner without the big 6.

    Kudos to you on your Bottas fastest qualifier tip. I think that's the first tip of yours I have followed that has actually come in. Better wine for me next weekend!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,575
    IanB2 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. JS, thanks for that answer.

    Mr. Eagles, that's over-egging it... are you sure you're a Yorkshireman? :p

    I'm a diabetic and suffer from a few other ailments, I have to avoid the cold like a vampire has to avoid sunlight.

    Ironically I find very hot weather equally stressful.
    You need to find somewhere nice on the south coast. Warm in winter and cool in summer.
    I'm a Northerner. Apart from university and four and half years working in London I've always lived in the North.

    Plus house prices in the South scare me. I own a six bedroomed house, if I sold that all that would get me in the South is a two bedroomed box flat.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,836
    ydoethur said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Doethur, that's surprising and depressing to read.

    Why? Why should I vote for a man who drives through ideas based on tin-eared prejudices and a hatred of smart people with predictably disastrous results? (And no, that's not a reference to Corbyn.)

    His exam reforms have been disastrous - new GCSE grades are currently pretty well worthless, and will remain so for at least a couple of years - his academy programme has made schools less accountable to parents, the school system now runs on naked cronyism of which Spielmann's promotion to run OFSTED is merely the most horrendous example, money has vanished into a great many needless cracks leaving the entire education system chronically underfunded and the number of people taking STEM subjects at A-level is plummeting.

    And then the little tosser and that drunken Campbell-lite Cummings have the nerve to blame teachers for his failures, despite the fact we warned him this would happen, and why, and he used mindless abuse (as do his more unpleasant and ignorant supporters) to tell us we were lying. Believe me, it isn't a pleasure to be proved right given the appalling damage that has been done.

    And the real tragedy is that his reforms could have been brilliant if done (a) more slowly (b) with some tweaking in light of expert advice and (c) with a level of courage and integrity Gove altogether lacks. He deserves all the opprobrium he gets, and more.

    He is worse than Corbyn.
    So you don't think Gove is the man to negotiate trade deals ?

    :wink:

    He seems to be viewed as the only possibility by those for whom an independent trade policy is a vital issue.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,046
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Doethur, let us assume all that is correct.

    It still doesn't persuade me Gove is worse than Corbyn. Until the Conservatives find themselves a candidate who marches with swastikas and Hitler banners and openly calls himself a fascist, I'm a nailed on Conservative voter at the next General Election because Corbyn's so bloody atrocious.

    Yes.

    And he's still better than Gove. Gove has damaged the education of millions of children for no other reason than to prove he could and as part of a bizarre and wholly unnecessary vendetta against teachers (which is really strange given he had the backing of most of us at the start). That's totally unacceptable.

    Which is why, when he is right, he is such a potent force. His energy and determination are something else. The problem is, his judgement is awful and his willingness to listen to advice that contradicts his own is nil. That means he is utterly unfit to be PM and would probably cause a worse mess than Corbyn (who after all is so dim he would likely not be able to carry out many changes).

    Please, please Conservative members - don't do it. Put the country first and elect someone sane as your next leader.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,046
    another_richard said:

    So you don't think Gove is the man to negotiate trade deals ?

    :wink:

    He seems to be viewed as the only possibility by those for whom an independent trade policy is a vital issue.

    I am in no doubt, quite seriously, that he would be better at framing terms of reference than Liam Fox.

    But he would be incapable of negotiating as he simply cannot meet anyone half way. He is right, or he is right. Therefore anyone who contradicts him is wrong.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    Labours message should be . The Tories refused to compromise , we did our best .

    To Leavers , we can’t allow a damaging Tory Brexit and are left with no choice but to have a second vote and let the public decide .

    To Remainers , the same , pro EU voters will just be happy to see a second vote.

    This holds onto their very large Remain vote and reduces the Leave vote losses . The Labour Party need to come out strong for this now and stop the waffle .

    That will appeal to Remainers, but not Leavers.

    My guess is that Labour has lost all the Leave votes it is going to lose. The Lexiteers are also very largely far left Corbyn loyalists.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,905
    ydoethur said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Doethur, let us assume all that is correct.

    It still doesn't persuade me Gove is worse than Corbyn. Until the Conservatives find themselves a candidate who marches with swastikas and Hitler banners and openly calls himself a fascist, I'm a nailed on Conservative voter at the next General Election because Corbyn's so bloody atrocious.

    Yes.

    And he's still better than Gove. Gove has damaged the education of millions of children for no other reason than to prove he could and as part of a bizarre and wholly unnecessary vendetta against teachers (which is really strange given he had the backing of most of us at the start). That's totally unacceptable.

    Which is why, when he is right, he is such a potent force. His energy and determination are something else. The problem is, his judgement is awful and his willingness to listen to advice that contradicts his own is nil. That means he is utterly unfit to be PM and would probably cause a worse mess than Corbyn (who after all is so dim he would likely not be able to carry out many changes).

    Please, please Conservative members - don't do it. Put the country first and elect someone sane as your next leader.
    That leaves a very narrow field. Rudd or Hammond, neither of whom seems very popular right now.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, ah, then fair enough.

    I loathe the heat too. Bloody annoys me when chirpy weather forecasters are delighted with cloying conditions in which it's damned hard to sleep.

    Mr. W, cutlasses are for fighting, not dancing.

    It's a short step from Highland and Regimental sword dancing to the cutlass .... Raise the Jolly Roger, Captain Pugwash !!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,191
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    FPT, this has got to be the biggest joke of all time, there is as much chance of Davidson being FM as me being an Olympic champion. Happy to put a wager on that it will not ever happen.
    HYUFD said:

    » show previous quotes
    The Tories got 28.6% in Scotland at GE17 but only 27.2% in Edinburgh Leith.

    Thus Ruth Davidson could become First Minister and the Scottish Tories win a majority of MPs at Westminster and MSPs at Holyrood and still lose Edinburgh Leith

    Agree. As if the Scottish Tories didn't have enough handicaps, they are now the Brexit Party as well. Tbf there is a unionist Brexit vote, but not enough to get anywhere near first place.
    Except they are not, we are still in the EU and that is the reason a non Tory Brexit Party has been created.

    If Davidson changes runs on a 'Unionist Party' ticket in 2021 she could certainly have a shot at FM
    One of their MSPs (laughably described by one rag as a SCon rising star) certainly seems to think they're the Brexit party.

    https://twitter.com/AnnieWellsMSP/status/1116663444193927168

    Really looking forward to the 2021 SCon manifesto of introducing tuition fees, restoring prescription charges, lowering tax for high earners and, of course, feebly going along with whatever Brexit Tory HQ has cobbled together at that point.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,703
    *eyes 'Mr. B2' warily*

    Who are you, and what have you done with the real IanB2?

    [And thanks :D ]

    Mr. Doethur, then we shall both be pleased when Penny Mordaunt succeeds May.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,046
    edited April 2019
    Theuniondivvie said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    FPT, this has got to be the biggest joke of all time, there is as much chance of Davidson being FM as me being an Olympic champion. Happy to put a wager on that it will not ever happen.
    HYUFD said:

    » show previous quotes
    The Tories got 28.6% in Scotland at GE17 but only 27.2% in Edinburgh Leith.

    Thus Ruth Davidson could become First Minister and the Scottish Tories win a majority of MPs at Westminster and MSPs at Holyrood and still lose Edinburgh Leith

    Agree. As if the Scottish Tories didn't have enough handicaps, they are now the Brexit Party as well. Tbf there is a unionist Brexit vote, but not enough to get anywhere near first place.
    Except they are not, we are still in the EU and that is the reason a non Tory Brexit Party has been created.

    If Davidson changes runs on a 'Unionist Party' ticket in 2021 she could certainly have a shot at FM
    One of their MSPs (laughably described by one rag as a SCon rising star) certainly seems to think they're the Brexit party.
    A rising Scon? I thought scones didn't rise? Or am I confusing them with teacakes?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,905
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    IanB2 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. JS, thanks for that answer.

    Mr. Eagles, that's over-egging it... are you sure you're a Yorkshireman? :p

    I'm a diabetic and suffer from a few other ailments, I have to avoid the cold like a vampire has to avoid sunlight.

    Ironically I find very hot weather equally stressful.
    You need to find somewhere nice on the south coast. Warm in winter and cool in summer.
    I'm a Northerner. Apart from university and four and half years working in London I've always lived in the North.

    Plus house prices in the South scare me. I own a six bedroomed house, if I sold that all that would get me in the South is a two bedroomed box flat.
    I won't speculate as to why you need six bedrooms. But for winter sun in the south you'd need to get beyond range of commuting to London to find decent property. I'm sure you'd be able find something in Devon or Cornwall, the less fashionable parts of Dorset, or the Isle of Wight, all of which are areas where frosts even in winter are very rare.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    ydoethur said:

    Please, please Conservative members - don't do it. Put the country first and elect someone sane as your next leader.

    Neddle and haystack springs to mind ....

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,706
    edited April 2019
    SandyRentool said:

    Foxy said:

    FWIW

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1117101502714322947?s=19

    You've brought a smile to my face. And thanks for the three points last night!
    Local election PVs arrived today in my patch. Unusually we have a County by-election too, in bluest Haslemere where I live - sprung on us at the last minute. Labour scrambled to get a candidate, while the LibDems missed out on that but are fighting the borough hard with every voter getting a hand-addressed personal appeal, something I thought had died out. I've duly voted Lab/Lib.

    The Euro polls were pretty on the mark last time, but the obvious question is whether Brexit and UKIP will neatly split the vote as the poll suggests. If they do, Labour will win big time because of the way the UK electoral system for the Euros works, but I suspect Farage will gain ground as the election proceeds.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    Brexit Party looks very professional I must admit. Great clear name, distinctive colour and slogan\branding. Think Farage, who will of course be invited everywhere by the media, will do very well in the EU elections, probably first, can't see Labour holding up in EU elections at all. Why vote for them or the tories? It's going to be a proxy referendum.

    Change UK have been no help to themselves so far. Tried to find their website earlier and couldn't, seems they are still using the Independent Group. What's their colours, logo, slogan, platform? Seems like it's been confirmed as well that each party will stand separately as well (according to guardian).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,046
    edited April 2019
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Doethur, then we shall both be pleased when Penny Mordaunt succeeds May.

    I dunno whether I'd call her sane, but at least she's not Gove.
This discussion has been closed.