The Tories coming third last time will limit the damage after the European Elections. Their vote share will fall but ultimately they were beaten by a Eurosceptic party last time and so this will be no different. They should be able to retain third place.
On the other hand if they get pushed into fourth place it might be difficult to recover from.
The Tories will only fail to recover if the Brexit Party overtakes them at the next general election and becomes the main right of centre opposition to Labour.
In 2014 the Tories trailed both UKIP and Labour in the Euro elections and still won an overall majority at the 2015 general election
FPT, this has got to be the biggest joke of all time, there is as much chance of Davidson being FM as me being an Olympic champion. Happy to put a wager on that it will not ever happen. HYUFD said:
» show previous quotes The Tories got 28.6% in Scotland at GE17 but only 27.2% in Edinburgh Leith.
Thus Ruth Davidson could become First Minister and the Scottish Tories win a majority of MPs at Westminster and MSPs at Holyrood and still lose Edinburgh Leith
Agree. As if the Scottish Tories didn't have enough handicaps, they are now the Brexit Party as well. Tbf there is a unionist Brexit vote, but not enough to get anywhere near first place.
Except they are not, we are still in the EU and that is the reason a non Tory Brexit Party has been created.
If Davidson changes runs on a 'Unionist Party' ticket in 2021 she could certainly have a shot at FM
One of their MSPs (laughably described by one rag as a SCon rising star) certainly seems to think they're the Brexit party.
A rising Scon? I thought scones didn't rise? Or am I confusing them with teacakes?
Your classic scone (pronounced scone) rises, a drop scone (pronounced scone) tends to be flatter but still rises a bit.
It still doesn't persuade me Gove is worse than Corbyn. Until the Conservatives find themselves a candidate who marches with swastikas and Hitler banners and openly calls himself a fascist, I'm a nailed on Conservative voter at the next General Election because Corbyn's so bloody atrocious.
Yes.
And he's still better than Gove. Gove has damaged the education of millions of children for no other reason than to prove he could and as part of a bizarre and wholly unnecessary vendetta against teachers (which is really strange given he had the backing of most of us at the start). That's totally unacceptable.
Which is why, when he is right, he is such a potent force. His energy and determination are something else. The problem is, his judgement is awful and his willingness to listen to advice that contradicts his own is nil. That means he is utterly unfit to be PM and would probably cause a worse mess than Corbyn (who after all is so dim he would likely not be able to carry out many changes).
Please, please Conservative members - don't do it. Put the country first and elect someone sane as your next leader.
That leaves a very narrow field. Rudd or Hammond, neither of whom seems very popular right now.
Rory Stewart would at least try to build a consensus; of the cabinet not sure what is wrong with Hancock or Hinds yet, both seem reasonable enough if unexciting from their media appearances so far. Given the ridiculous hand he has been dealt and his inexperience surprisingly impressed by Barclay.
Mr. Eagles, that's over-egging it... are you sure you're a Yorkshireman?
I'm a diabetic and suffer from a few other ailments, I have to avoid the cold like a vampire has to avoid sunlight.
Ironically I find very hot weather equally stressful.
You need to find somewhere nice on the south coast. Warm in winter and cool in summer.
I'm a Northerner. Apart from university and four and half years working in London I've always lived in the North.
Plus house prices in the South scare me. I own a six bedroomed house, if I sold that all that would get me in the South is a two bedroomed box flat.
I won't speculate as to why you need six bedrooms. But for winter sun in the south you'd need to get beyond range of commuting to London to find decent property. I'm sure you'd be able find something in Devon or Cornwall, the less fashionable parts of Dorset, or the Isle of Wight, all of which are areas where frosts even in winter are very rare.
The one thing that I've definitely embraced from my Pakistani heritage is the belief that several generations of the same family should live under the same roof.
It still doesn't persuade me Gove is worse than Corbyn. Until the Conservatives find themselves a candidate who marches with swastikas and Hitler banners and openly calls himself a fascist, I'm a nailed on Conservative voter at the next General Election because Corbyn's so bloody atrocious.
Yes.
And he's still better than Gove. Gove has damaged the education of millions of children for no other reason than to prove he could and as part of a bizarre and wholly unnecessary vendetta against teachers (which is really strange given he had the backing of most of us at the start). That's totally unacceptable.
Which is why, when he is right, he is such a potent force. His energy and determination are something else. The problem is, his judgement is awful and his willingness to listen to advice that contradicts his own is nil. That means he is utterly unfit to be PM and would probably cause a worse mess than Corbyn (who after all is so dim he would likely not be able to carry out many changes).
Please, please Conservative members - don't do it. Put the country first and elect someone sane as your next leader.
Gove has a real, and necessary, talent to say "abolish this, it isn't working." All systems need people who can do that, and education definitely needed it in 2010. Unfortunately, he can't or won't come up with fully working alternatives; certainty not if they involve negotiation with other viewpoints.
Parallels with Brexit are left as an exercise for the reader.
FPT, this has got to be the biggest joke of all time, there is as much chance of Davidson being FM as me being an Olympic champion. Happy to put a wager on that it will not ever happen. HYUFD said:
» show previous quotes The Tories got 28.6% in Scotland at GE17 but only 27.2% in Edinburgh Leith.
Thus Ruth Davidson could become First Minister and the Scottish Tories win a majority of MPs at Westminster and MSPs at Holyrood and still lose Edinburgh Leith
Agree. As if the Scottish Tories didn't have enough handicaps, they are now the Brexit Party as well. Tbf there is a unionist Brexit vote, but not enough to get anywhere near first place.
Except they are not, we are still in the EU and that is the reason a non Tory Brexit Party has been created.
If Davidson changes runs on a 'Unionist Party' ticket in 2021 she could certainly have a shot at FM
She'd have to break with the dead hand of the UK party. Which would be interesting.
Could be a coalition partner nationally but a separate party as in the CSU in Bavaria and CDU in the rest of Germany
Labours message should be . The Tories refused to compromise , we did our best .
To Leavers , we can’t allow a damaging Tory Brexit and are left with no choice but to have a second vote and let the public decide .
To Remainers , the same , pro EU voters will just be happy to see a second vote.
This holds onto their very large Remain vote and reduces the Leave vote losses . The Labour Party need to come out strong for this now and stop the waffle .
Leavers will not buy the second vote idea for a split second. They know the only reason it is being pushed is because Remainers think they will win. If they didn't then Remainers would not go within a million miles of it. If you push that message then you are still making the basic mistake of thinking Leave voters are dumb and unsophisticated and you will certainly not win much of the Leave vote with that attitude.
It still doesn't persuade me Gove is worse than Corbyn. Until the Conservatives find themselves a candidate who marches with swastikas and Hitler banners and openly calls himself a fascist, I'm a nailed on Conservative voter at the next General Election because Corbyn's so bloody atrocious.
Yes.
And he's still better than Gove. Gove has damaged the education of millions of children for no other reason than to prove he could and as part of a bizarre and wholly unnecessary vendetta against teachers (which is really strange given he had the backing of most of us at the start). That's totally unacceptable.
Which is why, when he is right, he is such a potent force. His energy and determination are something else. The problem is, his judgement is awful and his willingness to listen to advice that contradicts his own is nil. That means he is utterly unfit to be PM and would probably cause a worse mess than Corbyn (who after all is so dim he would likely not be able to carry out many changes).
Please, please Conservative members - don't do it. Put the country first and elect someone sane as your next leader.
That leaves a very narrow field. Rudd or Hammond, neither of whom seems very popular right now.
Rory Stewart would at least try to build a consensus; of the cabinet not sure what is wrong with Hancock or Hinds yet, both seem reasonable enough if unexciting from their media appearances so far. Given the ridiculous hand he has been dealt and his inexperience surprisingly impressed by Barclay.
Barclay is appalling. His recent media appearances have been risible, bad hand or no.
I have time for Stewart, but not as a national leader. Some people add hugely to a team but you wouldn't want them in charge. Hinds I don't even know.
Brexit Party looks very professional I must admit. Great clear name, distinctive colour and slogan\branding. Think Farage, who will of course be invited everywhere by the media, will do very well in the EU elections, probably first, can't see Labour holding up in EU elections at all. Why vote for them or the tories? It's going to be a proxy referendum.
Change UK have been no help to themselves so far. Tried to find their website earlier and couldn't, seems they are still using the Independent Group. What's their colours, logo, slogan, platform? Seems like it's been confirmed as well that each party will stand separately as well (according to guardian).
I had high hopes for TIG, but you are right that they aren't really capitalising on them right now. Yet the prospect of significant numbers of new MP defections remains on the table. Whether they can launch as a significant force in their own right, or turn into a holding camp for defection to the LibDems, remains to be seen.
Labours message should be . The Tories refused to compromise , we did our best .
To Leavers , we can’t allow a damaging Tory Brexit and are left with no choice but to have a second vote and let the public decide .
To Remainers , the same , pro EU voters will just be happy to see a second vote.
This holds onto their very large Remain vote and reduces the Leave vote losses . The Labour Party need to come out strong for this now and stop the waffle .
That will appeal to Remainers, but not Leavers.
My guess is that Labour has lost all the Leave votes it is going to lose. The Lexiteers are also very largely far left Corbyn loyalists.
If Yougov is right, I think that's spot on. 15% of Leave voters, who backed Labour in 2017, will vote Brexit, UKIP, or Conservative. The remaining 11% of Leavers who would still vote Labour in the Euros, must be hard core Leave supporters. The only question is whether some of the 37% of Remainers who said they'd vote Labour will switch to other parties.
If Opinium is right, then there's probably some way to go.
FPT, this has got to be the biggest joke of all time, there is as much chance of Davidson being FM as me being an Olympic champion. Happy to put a wager on that it will not ever happen. HYUFD said:
» show previous quotes The Tories got 28.6% in Scotland at GE17 but only 27.2% in Edinburgh Leith.
Thus Ruth Davidson could become First Minister and the Scottish Tories win a majority of MPs at Westminster and MSPs at Holyrood and still lose Edinburgh Leith
Agree. As if the Scottish Tories didn't have enough handicaps, they are now the Brexit Party as well. Tbf there is a unionist Brexit vote, but not enough to get anywhere near first place.
Except they are not, we are still in the EU and that is the reason a non Tory Brexit Party has been created.
If Davidson changes runs on a 'Unionist Party' ticket in 2021 she could certainly have a shot at FM
One of their MSPs (laughably described by one rag as a SCon rising star) certainly seems to think they're the Brexit party.
A rising Scon? I thought scones didn't rise? Or am I confusing them with teacakes?
Who are you, and what have you done with the real IanB2?
[And thanks ]
Mr. Doethur, then we shall both be pleased when Penny Mordaunt succeeds May.
I am still here. Stopped clock, and all that. Nevertheless I shall raise a glass to you next weekend. And try to ignore all of your future tips relating to the safety car.
It still doesn't persuade me Gove is worse than Corbyn. Until the Conservatives find themselves a candidate who marches with swastikas and Hitler banners and openly calls himself a fascist, I'm a nailed on Conservative voter at the next General Election because Corbyn's so bloody atrocious.
Yes.
And he's still better than Gove. Gove has damaged the education of millions of children for no other reason than to prove he could and as part of a bizarre and wholly unnecessary vendetta against teachers (which is really strange given he had the backing of most of us at the start). That's totally unacceptable.
Which is why, when he is right, he is such a potent force. His energy and determination are something else. The problem is, his judgement is awful and his willingness to listen to advice that contradicts his own is nil. That means he is utterly unfit to be PM and would probably cause a worse mess than Corbyn (who after all is so dim he would likely not be able to carry out many changes).
Please, please Conservative members - don't do it. Put the country first and elect someone sane as your next leader.
That leaves a very narrow field. Rudd or Hammond, neither of whom seems very popular right now.
Rory Stewart would at least try to build a consensus; of the cabinet not sure what is wrong with Hancock or Hinds yet, both seem reasonable enough if unexciting from their media appearances so far. Given the ridiculous hand he has been dealt and his inexperience surprisingly impressed by Barclay.
LoL, donkeys to the right and donkeys to the left , have we no horses.
Labours message should be . The Tories refused to compromise , we did our best .
To Leavers , we can’t allow a damaging Tory Brexit and are left with no choice but to have a second vote and let the public decide .
To Remainers , the same , pro EU voters will just be happy to see a second vote.
This holds onto their very large Remain vote and reduces the Leave vote losses . The Labour Party need to come out strong for this now and stop the waffle .
Leavers will not buy the second vote idea for a split second. They know the only reason it is being pushed is because Remainers think they will win. If they didn't then Remainers would not go within a million miles of it. If you push that message then you are still making the basic mistake of thinking Leave voters are dumb and unsophisticated and you will certainly not win much of the Leave vote with that attitude.
So you agree then that Leave is no longer the will of the people ! Clearly Leavers are afraid of another vote . No poll in 18 months has shown them ahead of Remain . As for Labour Leavers I doubt they support a race to the bottom low welfare Tory Brexit . Labour has little to lose from pushing another vote .
I know Salvini is doing well, but I wouldn't have thought that Italian voters would be keen on a foreigner coming to tell them to bash the Pope. But I don't know Italy or Catholicism well. Roger's in Italy, I think - I wonder what he makes of it?
Mr. Eagles, that's over-egging it... are you sure you're a Yorkshireman?
I'm a diabetic and suffer from a few other ailments, I have to avoid the cold like a vampire has to avoid sunlight.
Ironically I find very hot weather equally stressful.
You need to find somewhere nice on the south coast. Warm in winter and cool in summer.
I'm a Northerner. Apart from university and four and half years working in London I've always lived in the North.
Plus house prices in the South scare me. I own a six bedroomed house, if I sold that all that would get me in the South is a two bedroomed box flat.
I won't speculate as to why you need six bedrooms. But for winter sun in the south you'd need to get beyond range of commuting to London to find decent property. I'm sure you'd be able find something in Devon or Cornwall, the less fashionable parts of Dorset, or the Isle of Wight, all of which are areas where frosts even in winter are very rare.
The one thing that I've definitely embraced from my Pakistani heritage is the belief that several generations of the same family should live under the same roof.
Four of the six are occupied now.
If only the UK had kept to its heritage instead of me me me and feck the family and community
Labours message should be . The Tories refused to compromise , we did our best .
To Leavers , we can’t allow a damaging Tory Brexit and are left with no choice but to have a second vote and let the public decide .
To Remainers , the same , pro EU voters will just be happy to see a second vote.
This holds onto their very large Remain vote and reduces the Leave vote losses . The Labour Party need to come out strong for this now and stop the waffle .
That will appeal to Remainers, but not Leavers.
My guess is that Labour has lost all the Leave votes it is going to lose. The Lexiteers are also very largely far left Corbyn loyalists.
If Yougov is right, I think that's spot on. 15% of Leave voters, who backed Labour in 2017, will vote Brexit, UKIP, or Conservative. The remaining 11% of Leavers who would still vote Labour in the Euros, must be hard core Leave supporters. The only question is whether some of the 37% of Remainers who said they'd vote Labour will switch to other parties.
If Opinium is right, then there's probably some way to go.
The thing about Labour leavers is that - unlike Tory leavers - they don't actually care about the EU that much. People of the profile who care about the EU and ought to be Labour leavers are actually people who generally don't bother to vote at all - hence the low turnouts often seen in safe Labour constituencies - but actually turned out to vote in 2016. A lot depends on whether these people are motivated enough to bother turning out again. There have been so many anecdotal reports of such people concluding that voting is a waste of time, that I suspect Labour MPs don't actually have much to fear as some of them think from ignoring such people.
Labours message should be . The Tories refused to compromise , we did our best .
To Leavers , we can’t allow a damaging Tory Brexit and are left with no choice but to have a second vote and let the public decide .
To Remainers , the same , pro EU voters will just be happy to see a second vote.
This holds onto their very large Remain vote and reduces the Leave vote losses . The Labour Party need to come out strong for this now and stop the waffle .
Leavers will not buy the second vote idea for a split second. They know the only reason it is being pushed is because Remainers think they will win. If they didn't then Remainers would not go within a million miles of it. If you push that message then you are still making the basic mistake of thinking Leave voters are dumb and unsophisticated and you will certainly not win much of the Leave vote with that attitude.
So you agree then that Leave is no longer the will of the people ! Clearly Leavers are afraid of another vote . No poll in 18 months has shown them ahead of Remain . As for Labour Leavers I doubt they support a race to the bottom low welfare Tory Brexit . Labour has little to lose from pushing another vote .
Not at all. What I have said is that the Remoaners (and I do use that word very purposefully to describe those who wish to reverse the result of the referendum) believe that they will win which is why they are so committed to a loser's revote.
As I have said on here I would oppose a revote even if Leave were guaranteed to win. It is a matter of basic principles. Something I believe the loser's revote supporters utterly lack.
Labours message should be . The Tories refused to compromise , we did our best .
To Leavers , we can’t allow a damaging Tory Brexit and are left with no choice but to have a second vote and let the public decide .
To Remainers , the same , pro EU voters will just be happy to see a second vote.
This holds onto their very large Remain vote and reduces the Leave vote losses . The Labour Party need to come out strong for this now and stop the waffle .
Leavers will not buy the second vote idea for a split second. They know the only reason it is being pushed is because Remainers think they will win. If they didn't then Remainers would not go within a million miles of it. If you push that message then you are still making the basic mistake of thinking Leave voters are dumb and unsophisticated and you will certainly not win much of the Leave vote with that attitude.
So you agree then that Leave is no longer the will of the people ! Clearly Leavers are afraid of another vote . No poll in 18 months has shown them ahead of Remain . As for Labour Leavers I doubt they support a race to the bottom low welfare Tory Brexit . Labour has little to lose from pushing another vote .
Mr. B2, thanks (also, if you like fantasy do consider spending some of your winnings on The Bloody Crown Trilogy, third volume came out recently and its price is reduced).
I haven't bet on the safety car at all so far this year.
Brexit Party looks very professional I must admit. Great clear name, distinctive colour and slogan\branding. Think Farage, who will of course be invited everywhere by the media, will do very well in the EU elections, probably first, can't see Labour holding up in EU elections at all. Why vote for them or the tories? It's going to be a proxy referendum.
Change UK have been no help to themselves so far. Tried to find their website earlier and couldn't, seems they are still using the Independent Group. What's their colours, logo, slogan, platform? Seems like it's been confirmed as well that each party will stand separately as well (according to guardian).
I had high hopes for TIG, but you are right that they aren't really capitalising on them right now. Yet the prospect of significant numbers of new MP defections remains on the table. Whether they can launch as a significant force in their own right, or turn into a holding camp for defection to the LibDems, remains to be seen.
My admittedly biased impression from talking with centrist Labour MPs is that they're really irritated by TIG, who they see as wreckers rather than builders because of their uncompromising attitude on Brexit (voting against a customs union). The raison d'etre of most centrists is reasonable compromise, not fanatical insistence on One True Solution.
Labours message should be . The Tories refused to compromise , we did our best .
To Leavers , we can’t allow a damaging Tory Brexit and are left with no choice but to have a second vote and let the public decide .
To Remainers , the same , pro EU voters will just be happy to see a second vote.
This holds onto their very large Remain vote and reduces the Leave vote losses . The Labour Party need to come out strong for this now and stop the waffle .
Leavers will not buy the second vote idea for a split second. They know the only reason it is being pushed is because Remainers think they will win. If they didn't then Remainers would not go within a million miles of it. If you push that message then you are still making the basic mistake of thinking Leave voters are dumb and unsophisticated and you will certainly not win much of the Leave vote with that attitude.
So you agree then that Leave is no longer the will of the people ! Clearly Leavers are afraid of another vote . No poll in 18 months has shown them ahead of Remain . As for Labour Leavers I doubt they support a race to the bottom low welfare Tory Brexit . Labour has little to lose from pushing another vote .
Not at all. What I have said is that the Remoaners (and I do use that word very purposefully to describe those who wish to reverse the result of the referendum) believe that they will win which is why they are so committed to a loser's revote.
As I have said on here I would oppose a revote even if Leave were guaranteed to win. It is a matter of basic principles. Something I believe the loser's revote supporters utterly lack.
Remoaners always struck me as an odd label for leavers to try and stick on their opponents, since 'moaning' about everything is stock in trade for many of the most prominent leavers. They have even been moaning about actually leaving with a deal.
It still doesn't persuade me Gove is worse than Corbyn. Until the Conservatives find themselves a candidate who marches with swastikas and Hitler banners and openly calls himself a fascist, I'm a nailed on Conservative voter at the next General Election because Corbyn's so bloody atrocious.
Yes.
And he's still better than Gove. Gove has damaged the education of millions of children for no other reason than to prove he could and as part of a bizarre and wholly unnecessary vendetta against teachers (which is really strange given he had the backing of most of us at the start). That's totally unacceptable.
Which is why, when he is right, he is such a potent force. His energy and determination are something else. The problem is, his judgement is awful and his willingness to listen to advice that contradicts his own is nil. That means he is utterly unfit to be PM and would probably cause a worse mess than Corbyn (who after all is so dim he would likely not be able to carry out many changes).
Please, please Conservative members - don't do it. Put the country first and elect someone sane as your next leader.
Gove has a real, and necessary, talent to say "abolish this, it isn't working." All systems need people who can do that, and education definitely needed it in 2010. Unfortunately, he can't or won't come up with fully working alternatives; certainty not if they involve negotiation with other viewpoints.
Parallels with Brexit are left as an exercise for the reader.
It didn't work with the teachers but then they have long been completely off the rails and unwilling to accept that their whole profession has been an utter failure for the last 3 or more decades.
His work at both Justice and Environment where he has manged to build bridges and introduce real and meaningful reform shows how wrong headed the teachers are in their views. We have a third world education system and that started decades before Gove ever got near the department. Teachers bear a lot of the responsibility for that.
Mr. B2, thanks (also, if you like fantasy do consider spending some of your winnings on The Bloody Crown Trilogy, third volume came out recently and its price is reduced).
I haven't bet on the safety car at all so far this year.
Labours message should be . The Tories refused to compromise , we did our best .
To Leavers , we can’t allow a damaging Tory Brexit and are left with no choice but to have a second vote and let the public decide .
To Remainers , the same , pro EU voters will just be happy to see a second vote.
This holds onto their very large Remain vote and reduces the Leave vote losses . The Labour Party need to come out strong for this now and stop the waffle .
That will appeal to Remainers, but not Leavers.
My guess is that Labour has lost all the Leave votes it is going to lose. The Lexiteers are also very largely far left Corbyn loyalists.
If Yougov is right, I think that's spot on. 15% of Leave voters, who backed Labour in 2017, will vote Brexit, UKIP, or Conservative. The remaining 11% of Leavers who would still vote Labour in the Euros, must be hard core Leave supporters. The only question is whether some of the 37% of Remainers who said they'd vote Labour will switch to other parties.
If Opinium is right, then there's probably some way to go.
The thing about Labour leavers is that - unlike Tory leavers - they don't actually care about the EU that much. People of the profile who care about the EU and ought to be Labour leavers are actually people who generally don't bother to vote at all - hence the low turnouts often seen in safe Labour constituencies - but actually turned out to vote in 2016. A lot depends on whether these people are motivated enough to bother turning out again. There have been so many anecdotal reports of such people concluding that voting is a waste of time, that I suspect Labour MPs don't actually have much to fear as some of them think from ignoring such people.
Good point I think I saw polling that showed Brexit not a priority for Labour Leavers , it was though for Tory Leavers . Some Labour MPs seem to be clueless about their own constituencies . They’re more likely to stay with the party regardless which is born out by recent polling . It amazes me that some in Labour think delivering Brexit will be a good thing for their election chances . Their voters have become even more Remain.
Labours message should be . The Tories refused to compromise , we did our best .
To Leavers , we can’t allow a damaging Tory Brexit and are left with no choice but to have a second vote and let the public decide .
To Remainers , the same , pro EU voters will just be happy to see a second vote.
This holds onto their very large Remain vote and reduces the Leave vote losses . The Labour Party need to come out strong for this now and stop the waffle .
Leavers will not buy the second vote idea for a split second. They know the only reason it is being pushed is because Remainers think they will win. If they didn't then Remainers would not go within a million miles of it. If you push that message then you are still making the basic mistake of thinking Leave voters are dumb and unsophisticated and you will certainly not win much of the Leave vote with that attitude.
So you agree then that Leave is no longer the will of the people ! Clearly Leavers are afraid of another vote . No poll in 18 months has shown them ahead of Remain . As for Labour Leavers I doubt they support a race to the bottom low welfare Tory Brexit . Labour has little to lose from pushing another vote .
Not at all. What I have said is that the Remoaners (and I do use that word very purposefully to describe those who wish to reverse the result of the referendum) believe that they will win which is why they are so committed to a loser's revote.
As I have said on here I would oppose a revote even if Leave were guaranteed to win. It is a matter of basic principles. Something I believe the loser's revote supporters utterly lack.
Remoaners always struck me as an odd label for leavers to try and stick on their opponents, since 'moaning' about everything is stock in trade for many of the most prominent leavers. They have even been moaning about actually leaving with a deal.
Nah, we coined the label first. Find yourself another insult to use. Mind you if you are talking about the ERG then I can find you a whole raft of suitable epithets which you are free to adopt for them, all of which will be inventively insulting.
Mr. B2, as I continually offer more bets, the probability of one of them winning approaches 1
On a more serious note, I do think luck plays a large role. Had some good this year, a little bit of bad but mostly it's helped me out. Some years I've had multiple bets fail because of random DNFs or double pit stop failures or nonsense like that.
Labours message should be . The Tories refused to compromise , we did our best .
To Leavers , we can’t allow a damaging Tory Brexit and are left with no choice but to have a second vote and let the public decide .
To Remainers , the same , pro EU voters will just be happy to see a second vote.
This holds onto their very large Remain vote and reduces the Leave vote losses . The Labour Party need to come out strong for this now and stop the waffle .
That will appeal to Remainers, but not Leavers.
My guess is that Labour has lost all the Leave votes it is going to lose. The Lexiteers are also very largely far left Corbyn loyalists.
If Yougov is right, I think that's spot on. 15% of Leave voters, who backed Labour in 2017, will vote Brexit, UKIP, or Conservative. The remaining 11% of Leavers who would still vote Labour in the Euros, must be hard core Leave supporters. The only question is whether some of the 37% of Remainers who said they'd vote Labour will switch to other parties.
If Opinium is right, then there's probably some way to go.
The thing about Labour leavers is that - unlike Tory leavers - they don't actually care about the EU that much. People of the profile who care about the EU and ought to be Labour leavers are actually people who generally don't bother to vote at all - hence the low turnouts often seen in safe Labour constituencies - but actually turned out to vote in 2016. A lot depends on whether these people are motivated enough to bother turning out again. There have been so many anecdotal reports of such people concluding that voting is a waste of time, that I suspect Labour MPs don't actually have much to fear as some of them think from ignoring such people.
Good point I think I saw polling that showed Brexit not a priority for Labour Leavers , it was though for Tory Leavers . Some Labour MPs seem to be clueless about their own constituencies . They’re more likely to stay with the party regardless which is born out by recent polling . It amazes me that some in Labour think delivering Brexit will be a good thing for their election chances . Their voters have become even more Remain.
If Yougov are correct that more than half of Labour Leave voters would switch in the Euros, then I think I doubt if those Labour MP's are clueless. If you're a Labour MP in Greater London, you don't have to worry about Labour Leave voters. Their numbers are tiny. If you're Labour MP in South Yorkshire, it's different.
It still doesn't persuade me Gove is worse than Corbyn. Until the Conservatives find themselves a candidate who marches with swastikas and Hitler banners and openly calls himself a fascist, I'm a nailed on Conservative voter at the next General Election because Corbyn's so bloody atrocious.
Yes.
And he's still better than Gove. Gove has damaged the education of millions of children for no other reason than to prove he could and as part of a bizarre and wholly unnecessary vendetta against teachers (which is really strange given he had the backing of most of us at the start). That's totally unacceptable.
Which is why, when he is right, he is such a potent force. His energy and determination are something else. The problem is, his judgement is awful and his willingness to listen to advice that contradicts his own is nil. That means he is utterly unfit to be PM and would probably cause a worse mess than Corbyn (who after all is so dim he would likely not be able to carry out many changes).
Please, please Conservative members - don't do it. Put the country first and elect someone sane as your next leader.
Gove has a real, and necessary, talent to say "abolish this, it isn't working." All systems need people who can do that, and education definitely needed it in 2010. Unfortunately, he can't or won't come up with fully working alternatives; certainty not if they involve negotiation with other viewpoints.
Parallels with Brexit are left as an exercise for the reader.
It didn't work with the teachers but then they have long been completely off the rails and unwilling to accept that their whole profession has been an utter failure for the last 3 or more decades.
His work at both Justice and Environment where he has manged to build bridges and introduce real and meaningful reform shows how wrong headed the teachers are in their views. We have a third world education system and that started decades before Gove ever got near the department. Teachers bear a lot of the responsibility for that.
Describing a whole profession as a total failure is clearly wrong. However, something is quite clearly amiss when the U.K. is the only country in the OECD where the 55+s have better basic skills than 16-24 year olds.
Why do we have so many more low-skilled people than other European countries?
Brexit Party looks very professional I must admit. Great clear name, distinctive colour and slogan\branding. Think Farage, who will of course be invited everywhere by the media, will do very well in the EU elections, probably first, can't see Labour holding up in EU elections at all. Why vote for them or the tories? It's going to be a proxy referendum.
Change UK have been no help to themselves so far. Tried to find their website earlier and couldn't, seems they are still using the Independent Group. What's their colours, logo, slogan, platform? Seems like it's been confirmed as well that each party will stand separately as well (according to guardian).
I had high hopes for TIG, but you are right that they aren't really capitalising on them right now. Yet the prospect of significant numbers of new MP defections remains on the table. Whether they can launch as a significant force in their own right, or turn into a holding camp for defection to the LibDems, remains to be seen.
My admittedly biased impression from talking with centrist Labour MPs is that they're really irritated by TIG, who they see as wreckers rather than builders because of their uncompromising attitude on Brexit (voting against a customs union). The raison d'etre of most centrists is reasonable compromise, not fanatical insistence on One True Solution.
I know all politicians contradict themselves, but how can Umunna possibly even have the front to try and get away with his current stance having said this in 2016?
"Chuka Umunna today urged Remain campaigners to abandon calls for a second referendum or risk being seen as a metropolitan elite “who think they know best
“I really have no time for calls for a second referendum because I think it comes across as disrespectful to those who voted to leave,” he said.
“Those calls reinforce what I feel is a false stereotype — of a bunch of people in London who think they know best.”"
In a straight choice Remain or Leave . The latter has not been ahead for over 18 months. Forced choice re revoke and remain v no deal is not the same .
Preferred outcome on no deal scores 26% . YouGov issued a press release to refute the garbage being spouted by the ERG .
It didn't work with the teachers but then they have long been completely off the rails and unwilling to accept that their whole profession has been an utter failure for the last 3 or more decades.
His work at both Justice and Environment where he has manged to build bridges and introduce real and meaningful reform shows how wrong headed the teachers are in their views. We have a third world education system and that started decades before Gove ever got near the department. Teachers bear a lot of the responsibility for that.
Rubbish. It didn't work because ultimately his ideas however well intentioned were badly executed and ignored expert warnings as to the very real problems they would cause. All of which have been proven right.
As for the rest, you think I'm strident in my views on Gove? You should hear what my father (a vet who works in preparation for epidemics) thinks of him. And he's literally a card-carrying Conservative. Don't be fooled into thinking Nick Palmer is typical.
I can't help it if you're determined to resort to the aforementioned myths based on ignorance about education. It's a bit strange you think you know more about it than I do, but it's a free country and you're entitled to think it if you want. After all, unlike Gove your views are ultimately harmless and will not wreck the education of millions of children and damage our skills base going forward.
Brexit Party looks very professional I must admit. Great clear name, distinctive colour and slogan\branding. Think Farage, who will of course be invited everywhere by the media, will do very well in the EU elections, probably first, can't see Labour holding up in EU elections at all. Why vote for them or the tories? It's going to be a proxy referendum.
Change UK have been no help to themselves so far. Tried to find their website earlier and couldn't, seems they are still using the Independent Group. What's their colours, logo, slogan, platform? Seems like it's been confirmed as well that each party will stand separately as well (according to guardian).
I had high hopes for TIG, but you are right that they aren't really capitalising on them right now. Yet the prospect of significant numbers of new MP defections remains on the table. Whether they can launch as a significant force in their own right, or turn into a holding camp for defection to the LibDems, remains to be seen.
My admittedly biased impression from talking with centrist Labour MPs is that they're really irritated by TIG, who they see as wreckers rather than builders because of their uncompromising attitude on Brexit (voting against a customs union). The raison d'etre of most centrists is reasonable compromise, not fanatical insistence on One True Solution.
I know all politicians contradict themselves, but how can Umunna possibly even have the front to try and get away with his current stance having said this in 2016?
"Chuka Umunna today urged Remain campaigners to abandon calls for a second referendum or risk being seen as a metropolitan elite “who think they know best
“I really have no time for calls for a second referendum because I think it comes across as disrespectful to those who voted to leave,” he said.
“Those calls reinforce what I feel is a false stereotype — of a bunch of people in London who think they know best.”"
I would imagine it is because May has been so poor at selling her Brexit deal and the ERG have trashed it, leading to a massive vacuum with no good paths through it. There was not much momentum behind a 2nd referendum or revoke for the first half of 2018. Brexit could easily have been settled by now if leavers had agreed a plan, regardless of what Chuka or other remainers wanted.
In a straight choice Remain or Leave . The latter has not been ahead for over 18 months. Forced choice re revoke and remain v no deal is not the same .
Preferred outcome on no deal scores 26% . YouGov issued a press release to refute the garbage being spouted by the ERG .
Given where we are now, a polling choice between Revoke and Leave with No Deal or Revoke and the WA seems reasonable.
It didn't work with the teachers but then they have long been completely off the rails and unwilling to accept that their whole profession has been an utter failure for the last 3 or more decades.
His work at both Justice and Environment where he has manged to build bridges and introduce real and meaningful reform shows how wrong headed the teachers are in their views. We have a third world education system and that started decades before Gove ever got near the department. Teachers bear a lot of the responsibility for that.
Rubbish. It didn't work because ultimately his ideas however well intentioned were badly executed and ignored expert warnings as to the very real problems they would cause. All of which have been proven right.
As for the rest, you think I'm strident in my views on Gove? You should hear what my father (a vet who works in preparation for epidemics) thinks of him. And he's literally a card-carrying Conservative. Don't be fooled into thinking Nick Palmer is typical.
I can't help it if you're determined to resort to the aforementioned myths based on ignorance about education. It's a bit strange you think you know more about it than I do, but it's a free country and you're entitled to think it if you want. After all, unlike Gove your views are ultimately harmless and will not wreck the education of millions of children and damage our skills base going forward.
I do find it a bit depressing though.
Regardless of whether you or Richard are right, it is clear he is very unpopular with teachers, which is a big and influential part of the electorate. In normal times that would be a significant handicap to become a leader of a major party.
Brexit Party looks very professional I must admit. Great clear name, distinctive colour and slogan\branding. Think Farage, who will of course be invited everywhere by the media, will do very well in the EU elections, probably first, can't see Labour holding up in EU elections at all. Why vote for them or the tories? It's going to be a proxy referendum.
Change UK have been no help to themselves so far. Tried to find their website earlier and couldn't, seems they are still using the Independent Group. What's their colours, logo, slogan, platform? Seems like it's been confirmed as well that each party will stand separately as well (according to guardian).
CUK is an utter shambles. Still at least it will give centrists something to blame other than their politics when they disappear
It didn't work with the teachers but then they have long been completely off the rails and unwilling to accept that their whole profession has been an utter failure for the last 3 or more decades.
His work at both Justice and Environment where he has manged to build bridges and introduce real and meaningful reform shows how wrong headed the teachers are in their views. We have a third world education system and that started decades before Gove ever got near the department. Teachers bear a lot of the responsibility for that.
Rubbish. It didn't work because ultimately his ideas however well intentioned were badly executed and ignored expert warnings as to the very real problems they would cause. All of which have been proven right.
As for the rest, you think I'm strident in my views on Gove? You should hear what my father (a vet who works in preparation for epidemics) thinks of him. And he's literally a card-carrying Conservative. Don't be fooled into thinking Nick Palmer is typical.
I can't help it if you're determined to resort to the aforementioned myths based on ignorance about education. It's a bit strange you think you know more about it than I do, but it's a free country and you're entitled to think it if you want. After all, unlike Gove your views are ultimately harmless and will not wreck the education of millions of children and damage our skills base going forward.
I do find it a bit depressing though.
Gove is an absolute useless arsehole, only looking after himself , pushed on by his wife who is equally bad. Why anyone would think the backstabbing toerag has any talent or principles is beyond me.
In a straight choice Remain or Leave . The latter has not been ahead for over 18 months. Forced choice re revoke and remain v no deal is not the same .
Preferred outcome on no deal scores 26% . YouGov issued a press release to refute the garbage being spouted by the ERG .
Given where we are now, a polling choice between Revoke and Leave with No Deal or Revoke and the WA seems reasonable.
That’s close 44 no deal v 42 revoke .
But I don’t see it coming to that . Unless there’s an election there will never be a majority for no deal in the Commons . MPs having got the taste for legislation will do the same again. The Tories are screwed. Bring in a hard Brexit PM still doesn’t change the Commons maths . Go for an election before Brexit is delivered they’re in deep trouble . They need to change leader and hope for a polling recovery before even thinking of an election and deliver Brexit but their more pro EU wing won’t accept a hard Brexit.
It didn't work with the teachers but then they have long been completely off the rails and unwilling to accept that their whole profession has been an utter failure for the last 3 or more decades.
His work at both Justice and Environment where he has manged to build bridges and introduce real and meaningful reform shows how wrong headed the teachers are in their views. We have a third world education system and that started decades before Gove ever got near the department. Teachers bear a lot of the responsibility for that.
Rubbish. It didn't work because ultimately his ideas however well intentioned were badly executed and ignored expert warnings as to the very real problems they would cause. All of which have been proven right.
As for the rest, you think I'm strident in my views on Gove? You should hear what my father (a vet who works in preparation for epidemics) thinks of him. And he's literally a card-carrying Conservative. Don't be fooled into thinking Nick Palmer is typical.
I can't help it if you're determined to resort to the aforementioned myths based on ignorance about education. It's a bit strange you think you know more about it than I do, but it's a free country and you're entitled to think it if you want. After all, unlike Gove your views are ultimately harmless and will not wreck the education of millions of children and damage our skills base going forward.
I do find it a bit depressing though.
Gove is an absolute useless arsehole, only looking after himself , pushed on by his wife who is equally bad. Why anyone would think the backstabbing toerag has any talent or principles is beyond me.
The teaching profession are arseholes. They've spent the last 40 to 50 years attempting to use their position to create a socialist utopia by trying to brainwash people who are too naive to understand what they're up to. And they're utterly shameless about it, because they think they're RIGHT and KNOW BEST. Shame on them.
Brexit Party looks very professional I must admit. Great clear name, distinctive colour and slogan\branding. Think Farage, who will of course be invited everywhere by the media, will do very well in the EU elections, probably first, can't see Labour holding up in EU elections at all. Why vote for them or the tories? It's going to be a proxy referendum.
Change UK have been no help to themselves so far. Tried to find their website earlier and couldn't, seems they are still using the Independent Group. What's their colours, logo, slogan, platform? Seems like it's been confirmed as well that each party will stand separately as well (according to guardian).
I had high hopes for TIG, but you are right that they aren't really capitalising on them right now. Yet the prospect of significant numbers of new MP defections remains on the table. Whether they can launch as a significant force in their own right, or turn into a holding camp for defection to the LibDems, remains to be seen.
My admittedly biased impression from talking with centrist Labour MPs is that they're really irritated by TIG, who they see as wreckers rather than builders because of their uncompromising attitude on Brexit (voting against a customs union). The raison d'etre of most centrists is reasonable compromise, not fanatical insistence on One True Solution.
I know all politicians contradict themselves, but how can Umunna possibly even have the front to try and get away with his current stance having said this in 2016?
"Chuka Umunna today urged Remain campaigners to abandon calls for a second referendum or risk being seen as a metropolitan elite “who think they know best
“I really have no time for calls for a second referendum because I think it comes across as disrespectful to those who voted to leave,” he said.
“Those calls reinforce what I feel is a false stereotype — of a bunch of people in London who think they know best.”"
Brexit Party looks very professional I must admit. Great clear name, distinctive colour and slogan\branding. Think Farage, who will of course be invited everywhere by the media, will do very well in the EU elections, probably first, can't see Labour holding up in EU elections at all. Why vote for them or the tories? It's going to be a proxy referendum.
Change UK have been no help to themselves so far. Tried to find their website earlier and couldn't, seems they are still using the Independent Group. What's their colours, logo, slogan, platform? Seems like it's been confirmed as well that each party will stand separately as well (according to guardian).
I do not see how 'inviting Farage everywhere' will be permitted under the rules applied during the campaign. Doubtless the major parties will have their lawyers primed to intervene.
Brexit Party looks very professional I must admit. Great clear name, distinctive colour and slogan\branding. Think Farage, who will of course be invited everywhere by the media, will do very well in the EU elections, probably first, can't see Labour holding up in EU elections at all. Why vote for them or the tories? It's going to be a proxy referendum.
Change UK have been no help to themselves so far. Tried to find their website earlier and couldn't, seems they are still using the Independent Group. What's their colours, logo, slogan, platform? Seems like it's been confirmed as well that each party will stand separately as well (according to guardian).
I do not see how 'inviting Farage everywhere' will be permitted under the rules applied during the campaign. Doubtless the major parties will have their lawyers primed to intervene.
Seeing as it's total common sense to invite the man who won the last lot of these elections and facilitated the referendum everywhere, you are probably right that the establishment will get lawyers involved to prevent it
It didn't work with the teachers but then they have long been completely off the rails and unwilling to accept that their whole profession has been an utter failure for the last 3 or more decades.
His work at both Justice and Environment where he has manged to build bridges and introduce real and meaningful reform shows how wrong headed the teachers are in their views. We have a third world education system and that started decades before Gove ever got near the department. Teachers bear a lot of the responsibility for that.
Rubbish. It didn't work because ultimately his ideas however well intentioned were badly executed and ignored expert warnings as to the very real problems they would cause. All of which have been proven right.
As for the rest, you think I'm strident in my views on Gove? You should hear what my father (a vet who works in preparation for epidemics) thinks of him. And he's literally a card-carrying Conservative. Don't be fooled into thinking Nick Palmer is typical.
I can't help it if you're determined to resort to the aforementioned myths based on ignorance about education. It's a bit strange you think you know more about it than I do, but it's a free country and you're entitled to think it if you want. After all, unlike Gove your views are ultimately harmless and will not wreck the education of millions of children and damage our skills base going forward.
I do find it a bit depressing though.
You are a teacher and see it from the teachers point of view - which to my mind is one of the most reactionary and closed mindsets in the country anyway. I see it from the point of the parents who have been through the education system in the 70s and 80s and now see their kids going through it. My view is clearly wildly different to yours but lacks the vested interest in seeing the blame for our education system - which dates to long before Gove - placed elsewhere. It is the education system of the past 30 years including teachers which has wrecked the prospects of millions of our children going forward.
And I certainly think Nick Palmer's views of Gove are far more accurate than your father's given they match my own which are also based in active involvement in environmental and countryside organisations.
Brexit Party looks very professional I must admit. Great clear name, distinctive colour and slogan\branding. Think Farage, who will of course be invited everywhere by the media, will do very well in the EU elections, probably first, can't see Labour holding up in EU elections at all. Why vote for them or the tories? It's going to be a proxy referendum.
Change UK have been no help to themselves so far. Tried to find their website earlier and couldn't, seems they are still using the Independent Group. What's their colours, logo, slogan, platform? Seems like it's been confirmed as well that each party will stand separately as well (according to guardian).
I do not see how 'inviting Farage everywhere' will be permitted under the rules applied during the campaign. Doubtless the major parties will have their lawyers primed to intervene.
Seeing as it's total common sense to invite the man who won the last lot of these elections and facilitated the referendum everywhere, you are probably right that the establishment will get lawyers involved to prevent it
A price worth paying if it also means we don’t have to see Chuka and his ilk.
Brexit Party looks very professional I must admit. Great clear name, distinctive colour and slogan\branding. Think Farage, who will of course be invited everywhere by the media, will do very well in the EU elections, probably first, can't see Labour holding up in EU elections at all. Why vote for them or the tories? It's going to be a proxy referendum.
Change UK have been no help to themselves so far. Tried to find their website earlier and couldn't, seems they are still using the Independent Group. What's their colours, logo, slogan, platform? Seems like it's been confirmed as well that each party will stand separately as well (according to guardian).
I do not see how 'inviting Farage everywhere' will be permitted under the rules applied during the campaign. Doubtless the major parties will have their lawyers primed to intervene.
Seeing as it's total common sense to invite the man who won the last lot of these elections and facilitated the referendum everywhere, you are probably right that the establishment will get lawyers involved to prevent it
Brexit Party looks very professional I must admit. Great clear name, distinctive colour and slogan\branding. Think Farage, who will of course be invited everywhere by the media, will do very well in the EU elections, probably first, can't see Labour holding up in EU elections at all. Why vote for them or the tories? It's going to be a proxy referendum.
Change UK have been no help to themselves so far. Tried to find their website earlier and couldn't, seems they are still using the Independent Group. What's their colours, logo, slogan, platform? Seems like it's been confirmed as well that each party will stand separately as well (according to guardian).
I do not see how 'inviting Farage everywhere' will be permitted under the rules applied during the campaign. Doubtless the major parties will have their lawyers primed to intervene.
Seeing as it's total common sense to invite the man who won the last lot of these elections and facilitated the referendum everywhere, you are probably right that the establishment will get lawyers involved to prevent it
That might be true were he still leader of UKIP.
That's the point! It is true, but the establishment think they're being really clever by ignoring the obvious point, that a one man band has changed it's name, to deny someone who they fear publicity. Normal people are bored of this conniving
Farage really is an ungrateful sod. Both Cameron and May bent over backwards to please him, and what's his response? Form the Brexit Party and plunder the Tories' support. Dave and Theresa must be livid.
Farage really is an ungrateful sod. Both Cameron and May bent over backwards to please him, and what's his response? Form the Brexit Party and plunder the Tories' support. Dave and Theresa must be livid.
Brexit Party looks very professional I must admit. Great clear name, distinctive colour and slogan\branding. Think Farage, who will of course be invited everywhere by the media, will do very well in the EU elections, probably first, can't see Labour holding up in EU elections at all. Why vote for them or the tories? It's going to be a proxy referendum.
Change UK have been no help to themselves so far. Tried to find their website earlier and couldn't, seems they are still using the Independent Group. What's their colours, logo, slogan, platform? Seems like it's been confirmed as well that each party will stand separately as well (according to guardian).
I do not see how 'inviting Farage everywhere' will be permitted under the rules applied during the campaign. Doubtless the major parties will have their lawyers primed to intervene.
Seeing as it's total common sense to invite the man who won the last lot of these elections and facilitated the referendum everywhere, you are probably right that the establishment will get lawyers involved to prevent it
That might be true were he still leader of UKIP.
That's the point! It is true, but the establishment think they're being really clever by ignoring the obvious point, that a one man band has changed it's name, to deny someone who they fear publicity. Normal people are bored of this conniving
You mean he has a divine right to be heard at all times despite the fact that he now leads a party with no track record. He also appears to be self appointed. By what process was he elected to his current position?
It didn't work with the teachers but then they have long been completely off the rails and unwilling to accept that their whole profession has been an utter failure for the last 3 or more decades.
His work at both Justice and Environment where he has manged to build bridges and introduce real and meaningful reform shows how wrong headed the teachers are in their views. We have a third world education system and that started decades before Gove ever got near the department. Teachers bear a lot of the responsibility for that.
Rubbish. It didn't work because ultimately his ideas however well intentioned were badly executed and ignored expert warnings as to the very real problems they would cause. All of which have been proven right.
As for the rest, you think I'm strident in my views on Gove? You should hear what my father (a vet who works in preparation for epidemics) thinks of him. And he's literally a card-carrying Conservative. Don't be fooled into thinking Nick Palmer is typical.
I can't help it if you're determined to resort to the aforementioned myths based on ignorance about education. It's a bit strange you think you know more about it than I do, but it's a free country and you're entitled to think it if you want. After all, unlike Gove your views are ultimately harmless and will not wreck the education of millions of children and damage our skills base going forward.
I do find it a bit depressing though.
Gove is an absolute useless arsehole, only looking after himself , pushed on by his wife who is equally bad. Why anyone would think the backstabbing toerag has any talent or principles is beyond me.
The teaching profession are arseholes. They've spent the last 40 to 50 years attempting to use their position to create a socialist utopia by trying to brainwash people who are too naive to understand what they're up to. And they're utterly shameless about it, because they think they're RIGHT and KNOW BEST. Shame on them.
Farage really is an ungrateful sod. Both Cameron and May bent over backwards to please him, and what's his response? Form the Brexit Party and plunder the Tories' support. Dave and Theresa must be livid.
Maybe he’ll go away if they delivered Brexit?
According to Farage, Brexit is a state of mind. It cannot be delivered by the people in power, since it's defined by opposition to whatever the people in power are doing.
Glad I'm not standing in the locals this year. With the Tories in freefall quite a few Labour paper candidates could find themselves on the council.
The Tories are not in 'freefall' as you put it from any significant move to Labour, only from Tory Leavers moving to UKIP or the Brexit Party.
Given UKIP are only standing in less than 20% of wards in the local elections and the Brexit Party even less I expect the Tories will hold onto more seats than the polls suggest and do rather better than they will do in the Euro elections
Farage really is an ungrateful sod. Both Cameron and May bent over backwards to please him, and what's his response? Form the Brexit Party and plunder the Tories' support. Dave and Theresa must be livid.
Maybe he’ll go away if they delivered Brexit?
According to Farage, Brexit is a state of mind. It cannot be delivered by the people in power, since it's defined by opposition to whatever the people in power are doing.
Brexit state of mind. Cornflakes, Bungle, Wet Dreams and Make Up
Brexit Party looks very professional I must admit. Great clear name, distinctive colour and slogan\branding. Think Farage, who will of course be invited everywhere by the media, will do very well in the EU elections, probably first, can't see Labour holding up in EU elections at all. Why vote for them or the tories? It's going to be a proxy referendum.
Change UK have been no help to themselves so far. Tried to find their website earlier and couldn't, seems they are still using the Independent Group. What's their colours, logo, slogan, platform? Seems like it's been confirmed as well that each party will stand separately as well (according to guardian).
I do not see how 'inviting Farage everywhere' will be permitted under the rules applied during the campaign. Doubtless the major parties will have their lawyers primed to intervene.
Seeing as it's total common sense to invite the man who won the last lot of these elections and facilitated the referendum everywhere, you are probably right that the establishment will get lawyers involved to prevent it
That might be true were he still leader of UKIP.
That's the point! It is true, but the establishment think they're being really clever by ignoring the obvious point, that a one man band has changed it's name, to deny someone who they fear publicity. Normal people are bored of this conniving
You mean he has a divine right to be heard at all times despite the fact that he now leads a party with no track record. He also appears to be self appointed. By what process was he elected to his current position?
Farage really is an ungrateful sod. Both Cameron and May bent over backwards to please him, and what's his response? Form the Brexit Party and plunder the Tories' support. Dave and Theresa must be livid.
Maybe he’ll go away if they delivered Brexit?
According to Farage, Brexit is a state of mind. It cannot be delivered by the people in power, since it's defined by opposition to whatever the people in power are doing.
The Telegraph have an interesting take on the extension. They are reporting that the socialists round the table, Spain, Greece, etc wanted the UK to hold EU elections because Labour would do well and they are part of the socialist grouping in the EU. Whereas no UK political party is part of the EPP the main competition to the socialists. Did Corbyn not attend a big socialist summit in Spain not so long ago.
Glad I'm not standing in the locals this year. With the Tories in freefall quite a few Labour paper candidates could find themselves on the council.
The Tories are not in 'freefall' as you put it from any significant move to Labour, only from Tory Leavers moving to UKIP or the Brexit Party.
Given UKIP are only standing in less than 20% of wards in the local elections and the Brexit Party even less I expect the Tories will hold onto more seats than the polls suggest and do rather better than they will do in the Euro elections
Tories have real competiton in all seats from the Can't Be Arsed Party. Low turnouts will give some odd winners.
Farage really is an ungrateful sod. Both Cameron and May bent over backwards to please him, and what's his response? Form the Brexit Party and plunder the Tories' support. Dave and Theresa must be livid.
It didn't work with the teachers but then they have long been completely off the rails and unwilling to accept that their whole profession has been an utter failure for the last 3 or more decades.
His work at both Justice and Environment where he has manged to build bridges and introduce real and meaningful reform shows how wrong headed the teachers are in their views. We have a third world education system and that started decades before Gove ever got near the department. Teachers bear a lot of the responsibility for that.
Rubbish. It didn't work because ultimately his ideas however well intentioned were badly executed and ignored expert warnings as to the very real problems they would cause. All of which have been proven right.
As for the rest, you think I'm strident in my views on Gove? You should hear what my father (a vet who works in preparation for epidemics) thinks of him. And he's literally a card-carrying Conservative. Don't be fooled into thinking Nick Palmer is typical.
I can't help it if you're determined to resort to the aforementioned myths based on ignorance about education. It's a bit strange you think you know more about it than I do, but it's a free country and you're entitled to think it if you want. After all, unlike Gove your views are ultimately harmless and will not wreck the education of millions of children and damage our skills base going forward.
I do find it a bit depressing though.
You are a teacher and see it from the teachers point of view - which to my mind is one of the most reactionary and closed mindsets in the country anyway. I see it from the point of the parents who have been through the education system in the 70s and 80s and now see their kids going through it. My view is clearly wildly different to yours but lacks the vested interest in seeing the blame for our education system - which dates to long before Gove - placed elsewhere. It is the education system of the past 30 years including teachers which has wrecked the prospects of millions of our children going forward.
And I certainly think Nick Palmer's views of Gove are far more accurate than your father's given they match my own which are also based in active involvement in environmental and countryside organisations.
I'm not a teacher, but I've a lot of relations who are. It's always seemed to me that whoever said we're all experts on education because we've all been to school hit the nail on the head. Trouble is, as a pupil, or the parents of pupils we look at it through a very narrow view. I worked in health and heard all sorts of strange opinions about GP's and other health professionals, which were largely the result of one or two experiences, or experiences of one or two professionals, and that really isn't representative.
The Telegraph have an interesting take on the extension. They are reporting that the socialists round the table, Spain, Greece, etc wanted the UK to hold EU elections because Labour would do well and they are part of the socialist grouping in the EU. Whereas no UK political party is part of the EPP the main competition to the socialists. Did Corbyn not attend a big socialist summit in Spain not so long ago.
In the Brexit season finale its revealed that Chuka is an ardent leaver, and he's poisoning the remain boxes on the second referendum. And in the credits there's a hidden scene showing the future Tory leader and a mystery backer
Glad I'm not standing in the locals this year. With the Tories in freefall quite a few Labour paper candidates could find themselves on the council.
The Tories are not in 'freefall' as you put it from any significant move to Labour, only from Tory Leavers moving to UKIP or the Brexit Party.
Given UKIP are only standing in less than 20% of wards in the local elections and the Brexit Party even less I expect the Tories will hold onto more seats than the polls suggest and do rather better than they will do in the Euro elections
I am sure that is true given that the major parties have always underperformed in the Euroelections for the simple reason that few people have taken them seriously. On the other hand, tonight's Opinium poll implies a pretty substantial swing of 6.5% from Con to Lab since the 2015 local elections .
Glad I'm not standing in the locals this year. With the Tories in freefall quite a few Labour paper candidates could find themselves on the council.
The Tories are not in 'freefall' as you put it from any significant move to Labour, only from Tory Leavers moving to UKIP or the Brexit Party.
Given UKIP are only standing in less than 20% of wards in the local elections and the Brexit Party even less I expect the Tories will hold onto more seats than the polls suggest and do rather better than they will do in the Euro elections
Tories have real competiton in all seats from the can't Be Arsed Party. Low turnouts will give some odd winners.
True and some Independents may benefit but that is still better for the Tories than straight switching to Labour and some who might have voted UKIP or Brexit Party in the absence of a candidate from those parties might just stick with the Tory candidate
It didn't work with the teachers but then they have long been completely off the rails and unwilling to accept that their whole profession has been an utter failure for the last 3 or more decades.
His work at both Justice and Environment where he has manged to build bridges and introduce real and meaningful reform shows how wrong headed the teachers are in their views. We have a third world education system and that started decades before Gove ever got near the department. Teachers bear a lot of the responsibility for that.
Rubbish. It didn't work because ultimately his ideas however well intentioned were badly executed and ignored expert warnings as to the very real problems they would cause. All of which have been proven right.
As for the rest, you think I'm strident in my views on Gove? You should hear what my father (a vet who works in preparation for epidemics) thinks of him. And he's literally a card-carrying Conservative. Don't be fooled into thinking Nick Palmer is typical.
I can't help it if you're determined to resort to the aforementioned myths based on ignorance about education. It's a bit strange you think you know more about it than I do, but it's a free country and you're entitled to think it if you want. After all, unlike Gove your views are ultimately harmless and will not wreck the education of millions of children and damage our skills base going forward.
I do find it a bit depressing though.
Gove is an absolute useless arsehole, only looking after himself , pushed on by his wife who is equally bad. Why anyone would think the backstabbing toerag has any talent or principles is beyond me.
The teaching profession are arseholes. They've spent the last 40 to 50 years attempting to use their position to create a socialist utopia by trying to brainwash people who are too naive to understand what they're up to. And they're utterly shameless about it, because they think they're RIGHT and KNOW BEST. Shame on them.
I don't disagree, but still believe Gove to be an absolutely useless arsehole.
Glad I'm not standing in the locals this year. With the Tories in freefall quite a few Labour paper candidates could find themselves on the council.
The Tories are not in 'freefall' as you put it from any significant move to Labour, only from Tory Leavers moving to UKIP or the Brexit Party.
Given UKIP are only standing in less than 20% of wards in the local elections and the Brexit Party even less I expect the Tories will hold onto more seats than the polls suggest and do rather better than they will do in the Euro elections
I am sure that is true given that the major parties have always underperformed in the Euroelections for the simple reason that few people have taken them seriously. On the other hand, tonight's Opinium poll implies a pretty substantial swing of 6.5% from Con to Lab since the 2015 local elections .
Yes and that is mainly down to Tories switching to UKIP and the Brexit Party than to Labour who are only up 1%
I think the Tories will lose 1000 to 1200 seats on May 2 and tbh I think they'd take that atm. The euros are going to be brutal though. The interest for me is who wins from green, lib, chuk
With all due respect to Flavible, there is no way the LibDems get 33 seats on 11% of the vote.
The poll suggests a swing of 9% to the LDs from the Tories compared to 2017, which as the map suggests would see a number of Tory South West seats return to the Liberals
With all due respect to Flavible, there is no way the LibDems get 33 seats on 11% of the vote.
The poll suggests a swing of 9% to the LDs from the Tories compared to 2017, which as the map suggests would see a number of Tory South West seats return to the Liberals
Brexit Party looks very professional I must admit. Great clear name, distinctive colour and slogan\branding. Think Farage, who will of course be invited everywhere by the media, will do very well in the EU elections, probably first, can't see Labour holding up in EU elections at all. Why vote for them or the tories? It's going to be a proxy referendum.
Change UK have been no help to themselves so far. Tried to find their website earlier and couldn't, seems they are still using the Independent Group. What's their colours, logo, slogan, platform? Seems like it's been confirmed as well that each party will stand separately as well (according to guardian).
I do not see how 'inviting Farage everywhere' will be permitted under the rules applied during the campaign. Doubtless the major parties will have their lawyers primed to intervene.
Maybe - but their response might be well Farage is second in the EU parliament polls so we are just reflecting current public opinion.
They can always wheel out Nancy or Diane James when he isn’t available.
I presume Farage will have to drop his LBC show during the campaign as he will be a candidate - although presumably Rees Mogg can fill in for him (Jacob that is!).
34% of Tories who supported the party in 2017 would switch to UKIP/BP.
8% of Labour voters would do the same .
I make the numbers 51%, and 11%, with 4% more former Labour switching to the Conservatives in the Euros.
You must be removing DKs and won’t vote . Still it looks a horror show for the Tories .
I think the Conservatives' results will be terrible in the Euro elections.
I think they'll be tolerable in the locals. The vast majority of the seats are being contested in Leave-voting areas, many of them very heavily Leave-voting, but luckily (from the Conservatives' point of view) they don't face the same number of competitors on their right that they faced four years ago.
The Telegraph have an interesting take on the extension. They are reporting that the socialists round the table, Spain, Greece, etc wanted the UK to hold EU elections because Labour would do well and they are part of the socialist grouping in the EU. Whereas no UK political party is part of the EPP the main competition to the socialists. Did Corbyn not attend a big socialist summit in Spain not so long ago.
Brexit Party looks very professional I must admit. Great clear name, distinctive colour and slogan\branding. Think Farage, who will of course be invited everywhere by the media, will do very well in the EU elections, probably first, can't see Labour holding up in EU elections at all. Why vote for them or the tories? It's going to be a proxy referendum.
Change UK have been no help to themselves so far. Tried to find their website earlier and couldn't, seems they are still using the Independent Group. What's their colours, logo, slogan, platform? Seems like it's been confirmed as well that each party will stand separately as well (according to guardian).
CUK is an utter shambles. Still at least it will give centrists something to blame other than their politics when they disappear
It's a paradox that while Farage Mark 2 generates a media bandwagon, Change UK with 11 MP's get little coverage.
The collapse in the conservative support was entirely predicatable as soon as new EU elections were called.
TM must shoulder the responsibility along with ERG and Dominic Grieve for this shambles
Each one fighting each other was madness and had they all supported the first WDA we would now be out of the EU and TM and the conservatives would be riding high
I hope this break and the collapse in the polls will bring them to their senses to pass the WDA and leave on the 1st June, thereby extinguishing the Brexit party before it extinguishes them
34% of Tories who supported the party in 2017 would switch to UKIP/BP.
8% of Labour voters would do the same .
I make the numbers 51%, and 11%, with 4% more former Labour switching to the Conservatives in the Euros.
You must be removing DKs and won’t vote . Still it looks a horror show for the Tories .
I think the Conservatives' results will be terrible in the Euro elections.
I think they'll be tolerable in the locals. The vast majority of the seats are being contested in Leave-voting areas, many of them very heavily Leave-voting, but luckily (from the Conservatives' point of view) they don't face the same competition on their right that they faced four years ago.
We may be underestimating the attraction of the rosette and overestimating Brexit.
I think the Tories will lose 1000 to 1200 seats on May 2 and tbh I think they'd take that atm. The euros are going to be brutal though. The interest for me is who wins from green, lib, chuk
In the 2015 locals the Tories won 5,521 seats to 2,278 seats for Labour, so losing 1000 to 1200 seats would still see the Tories win more seats than Labour on May 2nd even if the Euros prove a bloodbath (though of course the Tories were 3rd in the 2014 Euros anyway).
It would also still be better than the Tories did in the 1995 locals when they lost 2,018 seats overnight
I think the Tories will lose 1000 to 1200 seats on May 2 and tbh I think they'd take that atm. The euros are going to be brutal though. The interest for me is who wins from green, lib, chuk
In the 2015 locals the Tories won 5,521 seats to 2,278 seats for Labour, so losing 1000 to 1200 seats would still see the Tories win more seats than Labour on May 2nd even if the Euros prove a bloodbath (though of course the Tories were 3rd in the 2014 Euros anyway).
It would also still be better than the Tories did in the 1995 locals when they lost 2,018 seats overnight
It wont be as bad as 95 for sure, labour dont have the support Blair did, but ironically the euros will be much worse than 94 with Major vs Beckett
Comments
The Tories will only fail to recover if the Brexit Party overtakes them at the next general election and becomes the main right of centre opposition to Labour.
In 2014 the Tories trailed both UKIP and Labour in the Euro elections and still won an overall majority at the 2015 general election
Four of the six are occupied now.
Parallels with Brexit are left as an exercise for the reader.
I have time for Stewart, but not as a national leader. Some people add hugely to a team but you wouldn't want them in charge. Hinds I don't even know.
If Opinium is right, then there's probably some way to go.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/13/steve-bannon-matteo-salvini-pope-francis-is-the-enemy
I know Salvini is doing well, but I wouldn't have thought that Italian voters would be keen on a foreigner coming to tell them to bash the Pope. But I don't know Italy or Catholicism well. Roger's in Italy, I think - I wonder what he makes of it?
It's like saying somebody has a facility with numbers compared to Diane Abbott.
As I have said on here I would oppose a revote even if Leave were guaranteed to win. It is a matter of basic principles. Something I believe the loser's revote supporters utterly lack.
http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/steve-fisher-condorcet
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8786928/m25-brexit-divide-england-wales/
I haven't bet on the safety car at all so far this year.
His work at both Justice and Environment where he has manged to build bridges and introduce real and meaningful reform shows how wrong headed the teachers are in their views. We have a third world education system and that started decades before Gove ever got near the department. Teachers bear a lot of the responsibility for that.
On a more serious note, I do think luck plays a large role. Had some good this year, a little bit of bad but mostly it's helped me out. Some years I've had multiple bets fail because of random DNFs or double pit stop failures or nonsense like that.
Why do we have so many more low-skilled people than other European countries?
"Chuka Umunna today urged Remain campaigners to abandon calls for a second referendum or risk being seen as a metropolitan elite “who think they know best
“I really have no time for calls for a second referendum because I think it comes across as disrespectful to those who voted to leave,” he said.
“Those calls reinforce what I feel is a false stereotype — of a bunch of people in London who think they know best.”"
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/chuka-umunna-remain-campaigners-must-drop-calls-for-new-brexit-vote-a3410601.html
Preferred outcome on no deal scores 26% . YouGov issued a press release to refute the garbage being spouted by the ERG .
As for the rest, you think I'm strident in my views on Gove? You should hear what my father (a vet who works in preparation for epidemics) thinks of him. And he's literally a card-carrying Conservative. Don't be fooled into thinking Nick Palmer is typical.
I can't help it if you're determined to resort to the aforementioned myths based on ignorance about education. It's a bit strange you think you know more about it than I do, but it's a free country and you're entitled to think it if you want. After all, unlike Gove your views are ultimately harmless and will not wreck the education of millions of children and damage our skills base going forward.
I do find it a bit depressing though.
34% of Tories who supported the party in 2017 would switch to UKIP/BP.
8% of Labour voters would do the same .
But I don’t see it coming to that . Unless there’s an election there will never be a majority for no deal in the Commons . MPs having got the taste for legislation will do the same again. The Tories are screwed. Bring in a hard Brexit PM still doesn’t change the Commons maths . Go for an election before Brexit is delivered they’re in deep trouble . They need to change leader and hope for a polling recovery before even thinking of an election and deliver Brexit but their more pro EU wing won’t accept a hard Brexit.
And I certainly think Nick Palmer's views of Gove are far more accurate than your father's given they match my own which are also based in active involvement in environmental and countryside organisations.
You've been keeping a stopper on that one.
Given UKIP are only standing in less than 20% of wards in the local elections and the Brexit Party even less I expect the Tories will hold onto more seats than the polls suggest and do rather better than they will do in the Euro elections
https://twitter.com/SkySportsNews/status/1117113334942306305
Once pleasing thing about the map is that the CUKs are wiped out.
The euros are going to be brutal though. The interest for me is who wins from green, lib, chuk
They can always wheel out Nancy or Diane James when he isn’t available.
I presume Farage will have to drop his LBC show during the campaign as he will be a candidate - although presumably Rees Mogg can fill in for him (Jacob that is!).
https://twitter.com/JACKEDD1E/status/1117109609876152322
I think they'll be tolerable in the locals. The vast majority of the seats are being contested in Leave-voting areas, many of them very heavily Leave-voting, but luckily (from the Conservatives' point of view) they don't face the same number of competitors on their right that they faced four years ago.
TM must shoulder the responsibility along with ERG and Dominic Grieve for this shambles
Each one fighting each other was madness and had they all supported the first WDA we would now be out of the EU and TM and the conservatives would be riding high
I hope this break and the collapse in the polls will bring them to their senses to pass the WDA and leave on the 1st June, thereby extinguishing the Brexit party before it extinguishes them
It would also still be better than the Tories did in the 1995 locals when they lost 2,018 seats overnight