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kle4 said:

And you keep calling that nonsense without explaining what the LDs would do in a situtaion where they held the balance of power. Unless you think them incredibly reckless and dumb they'd back someone, however lightly, so who would it be? The way you get so angry at the suggestion without ever offering an answer to what they might do might suggest you don't think it as much nonsense as you pretend it is.

I cannot see why they would want to support Corbyn, but if it was Corbyn or the other side? No doubt you will throw your toys out of the pram at the question, decrying being presented with a false choice as if you've never encountered a hypothetical scenario before. But bottom line, if the LDs had to pick one or the other or no one, I think no options look palatable, but they'd pick one, so it isn't nonsense to suggest one, no matter how much you whinge like a baby when someone suggests one is more likely than the other.

HYUFD peddles the line because it's a weapon the Conservatives will try to use - vote Lib Dem, get Corbyn - and there's no need for you to get on your high horse with your cheap jibes and insults. If you don't understand how politics works, don't waste your time here. Go and do some research and come back when you understand how the bear pit works.

I'm only a Party member but I don't detect any enthusiasm for dealing with either Corbyn or May currently. Assuming we will have to assumes a lot of things about parliamentary arithmetic after the next GE which aren't worth contemplating at this time though if the nosedive of the duopoly continues we may have to.

The LD aim will be first and foremost to maximise LD seats and votes. IF the Parliamentary arithmetic puts the party in a position to hold the balance of power, I'd like to think after the Coalition experience we will nail both other parties to the wall with some serious nails.

In other words, if they want our support, the price is going to be very heavy. How about STV for all future elections without a referendum? That works for me. Once that's in the bag we can talk about other things. I voted LEAVE so I'm not really bothered about a commitment to rejoin the EU but I imagine that may be on the table as well.

You might also want to ask what the price of the SNP's support might be or that of the Brexit party. We've all seen how coalition politics operates and we've all learned the same lesson - get your demands in and make them stick.

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

I think there is a narrow majority for WA plus CU in the Commons which would also get us to the 2 year transition period to reconsider or not the future relationship.

If that is what happens I think Boris or Raab would replace May by the end of the year to regain voters who have defected to the Brexit Party and UKIP

You`ve been peddling this along with the "LDs will support Corbyn" nonsense. Is there the slightest indication those currently opposed to the WA will change their vote IF the PD shifts to a full CU with the EU? IN any case, what`s to say a future Conservative Prime Minister might not renege on the deal?

Given the internal tensions in BOTH main parties, I`m far from convinced there`s this majority of which you speak and we will unfortunately stay in our cul-de-sac (to use a good French expression) until 31/10.

The CU lost by just 3 votes in the indicative votes, far closer than EUref2, revoke Art 50, No Deal or May's current Deal were to a majority in the Commons. So yes I think if a CU is added to the PD the WA may well then pass.

Of course a future Tory PM might try and change the future relationship to remove the CU (though passage of the WA will have made the backstop for NI binding) just as a future Labour PM might try and rejoin the EU or add the SM to the PD too but that would be largely irrelevant in the short term as passage of the WA takes us to the transition period for 2 further years in which time we stay in the CU and SM anyway while we sort out the future relationship.

There was confusion on that CU vote that lost by 3. The LDs split three ways on it! Many MPs who voted for the CU had not considered that a future Tory PM could just rip it up. They know that now so probably won't vote for the CU again without a binding commitment for a referendum which would lose votes from many Tory supporters of the CU.

The only safe solution is to take the matter out of the hands of the Tories who are totally unsafe.

I predict a VNOC in the government after Easter, which succeeds, followed by a GE with minority Labour government elected on a CU deal plus referendum, with C&S support from SNP and LDs who will keep Labour honest. Referendum in October followed by revoke. End of UK nervous breakdown. Phew.

You predict or you hope?

AndyJS said:

rottenborough said:

AndyJS said:

brokenwheel said:

Nice little factoid;

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1117021768697491461

As much as 16%? I'm surprised.

No chance.

Do you think they might go below 16%? It wasn't exactly helpful for Hammond to say the Euro election would be a pointless exercise. Why should Tory campaigners get off their backsides to deliver leaflets with the Chancellor saying that sort of thing.

Feels like they are going to get pounded to be honest. Many Tories will sit it out rather than be disloyal, leaving a significant % who are so angry they vote Brexit Party.

At least for council elections there is the argument that you are electing a local person to deal with the bins not Brexit.

EU elections are a free hit.

And frankly it is a looming and avoidable disaster which will make Farage even more of household name than is already.

isam said:

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

nico67 said:

I see another rally peddling more hate and division .

Farage is overjoyed at the EU extension and never wants to leave the EU because he then just becomes irrelevant .

As you alluded to earlier, a soft Brexit gives him exactly the same platform, so to defeat this the only real options are going through the pain of a No Deal Brexit to discredit it (which still might not work), or remaining in the EU and trying to win the political argument.

Farage now saying it is about far more than Brexit. It is about changing politics. Pure Steve Bannon stuff.

Many of us on PB have been warning for a long time that a ultra English Nationalist Populist party would emerge and here we are. Direct democracy, people's voice, throw out the elite etc etc.

There's no way of getting rid of this now unless it is roundly flattened at the ballot box asap.

Can't see that happening.

It needs a mainstream party to come up with a BIG constitutional idea to change the narrative.

Why not just accept the narrative of honouring the result of the referendum being the right thing to do? Not doing it is what will cost them

Indeed.

The right thing to do also secures the future of our political system.

That MPs don’t realise how much damage they’re doing to the institutions they depend upon for a job is staggering.

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

nico67 said:

I see another rally peddling more hate and division .

Farage is overjoyed at the EU extension and never wants to leave the EU because he then just becomes irrelevant .

As you alluded to earlier, a soft Brexit gives him exactly the same platform, so to defeat this the only real options are going through the pain of a No Deal Brexit to discredit it (which still might not work), or remaining in the EU and trying to win the political argument.

Farage now saying it is about far more than Brexit. It is about changing politics. Pure Steve Bannon stuff.

Many of us on PB have been warning for a long time that a ultra English Nationalist Populist party would emerge and here we are. Direct democracy, people's voice, throw out the elite etc etc.

There's no way of getting rid of this now unless it is roundly flattened at the ballot box asap.

Can't see that happening.

It needs a mainstream party to come up with a BIG constitutional idea to change the narrative.

Corbyn's got the Marxist baroness on the federalism case...

stodge said:

kle4 said:

And you keep calling that nonsense without explaining what the LDs would do in a situtaion where they held the balance of power. Unless you think them incredibly reckless and dumb they'd back someone, however lightly, so who would it be? The way you get so angry at the suggestion without ever offering an answer to what they might do might suggest you don't think it as much nonsense as you pretend it is.

I cannot see why they would want to support Corbyn, but if it was Corbyn or the other side? No doubt you will throw your toys out of the pram at the question, decrying being presented with a false choice as if you've never encountered a hypothetical scenario before. But bottom line, if the LDs had to pick one or the other or no one, I think no options look palatable, but they'd pick one, so it isn't nonsense to suggest one, no matter how much you whinge like a baby when someone suggests one is more likely than the other.

HYUFD peddles the line because it's a weapon the Conservatives will try to use - vote Lib Dem, get Corbyn - and there's no need for you to get on your high horse with your cheap jibes and insults. If you don't understand how politics works, don't waste your time here. Go and do some research and come back when you understand how the bear pit works.

I'm only a Party member but I don't detect any enthusiasm for dealing with either Corbyn or May currently. Assuming we will have to assumes a lot of things about parliamentary arithmetic after the next GE which aren't worth contemplating at this time though if the nosedive of the duopoly continues we may have to.

The LD aim will be first and foremost to maximise LD seats and votes. IF the Parliamentary arithmetic puts the party in a position to hold the balance of power, I'd like to think after the Coalition experience we will nail both other parties to the wall with some serious nails.

In other words, if they want our support, the price is going to be very heavy. How about STV for all future elections without a referendum? That works for me. Once that's in the bag we can talk about other things. I voted LEAVE so I'm not really bothered about a commitment to rejoin the EU but I imagine that may be on the table as well.

You might also want to ask what the price of the SNP's support might be or that of the Brexit party. We've all seen how coalition politics operates and we've all learned the same lesson - get your demands in and make them stick.

Yes, and as an LD member too, I agree. There will be no coalition with Corbyn Labour, or even C and S. Possibly with a different Labour leader, but even then would most likely be permitting a minority government.

Matt's last couple of cartoons have been particularly good.

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

I think there is a narrow majority for WA plus CU in the Commons which would also get us to the 2 year transition period to reconsider or not the future relationship.

If that is what happens I think Boris or Raab would replace May by the end of the year to regain voters who have defected to the Brexit Party and UKIP

You`ve been peddling this along with the "LDs will support Corbyn" nonsense. Is there the slightest indication those currently opposed to the WA will change their vote IF the PD shifts to a full CU with the EU? IN any case, what`s to say a future Conservative Prime Minister might not renege on the deal?

Given the internal tensions in BOTH main parties, I`m far from convinced there`s this majority of which you speak and we will unfortunately stay in our cul-de-sac (to use a good French expression) until 31/10.

The CU lost by just 3 votes in the indicative votes, far closer than EUref2, revoke Art 50, No Deal or May's current Deal were to a majority in the Commons. So yes I think if a CU is added to the PD the WA may well then pass.

Of course a future Tory PM might try and change the future relationship to remove the CU (though passage of the WA will have made the backstop for NI binding) just as a future Labour PM might try and rejoin the EU or add the SM to the PD too but that would be largely irrelevant in the short term as passage of the WA takes us to the transition period for 2 further years in which time we stay in the CU and SM anyway while we sort out the future relationship.

There was confusion on that CU vote that lost by 3. The LDs split three ways on it! Many MPs who voted for the CU had not considered that a future Tory PM could just rip it up. They know that now so probably won't vote for the CU again without a binding commitment for a referendum which would lose votes from many Tory supporters of the CU.

The only safe solution is to take the matter out of the hands of the Tories who are totally unsafe.

I predict a VNOC in the government after Easter, which succeeds, followed by a GE with minority Labour government elected on a CU deal plus referendum, with C&S support from SNP and LDs who will keep Labour honest. Referendum in October followed by revoke. End of UK nervous breakdown. Phew.

Governments always have the power to 'rip it up' with regards to anything in the future.

Whether they do so depends on how the popular the thing in question is, how easy it is to change and whether they will be in future government in any case.

And in your scenario the Conservatives likely change to exiting the EU without a referendum and without a deal - so two years after the next Conservative GE win its bye bye to the EU.

Foxy said:

stodge said:

kle4 said:

And you keep calling that nonsense without explaining what the LDs would do in a situtaion where they held the balance of power. Unless you think them incredibly reckless and dumb they'd back someone, however lightly, so who would it be? The way you get so angry at the suggestion without ever offering an answer to what they might do might suggest you don't think it as much nonsense as you pretend it is.

I cannot see why they would want to support Corbyn, but if it was Corbyn or the other side? No doubt you will throw your toys out of the pram at the question, decrying being presented with a false choice as if you've never encountered a hypothetical scenario before. But bottom line, if the LDs had to pick one or the other or no one, I think no options look palatable, but they'd pick one, so it isn't nonsense to suggest one, no matter how much you whinge like a baby when someone suggests one is more likely than the other.

HYUFD peddles the line because it's a weapon the Conservatives will try to use - vote Lib Dem, get Corbyn - and there's no need for you to get on your high horse with your cheap jibes and insults. If you don't understand how politics works, don't waste your time here. Go and do some research and come back when you understand how the bear pit works.

I'm only a Party member but I don't detect any enthusiasm for dealing with either Corbyn or May currently. Assuming we will have to assumes a lot of things about parliamentary arithmetic after the next GE which aren't worth contemplating at this time though if the nosedive of the duopoly continues we may have to.

The LD aim will be first and foremost to maximise LD seats and votes. IF the Parliamentary arithmetic puts the party in a position m stick.

Yes, and as an LD member too, I agree. There will be no coalition with Corbyn Labour, or even C and S. Possibly with a different Labour leader, but even then would most likely be permitting a minority government.

Even abstaining on a C and S vote on Corbyn PM could end up making him PM if the LDs hold the balance of power, in which case it is true to say unless the LDs commit to back the Tories on C and S 'vote LD get Corbyn' cannot be ruled out as a possible outcome of the next general election

rottenborough said:

Biden-Buttigieg.

Has a ring don't you think?

On Topic, I think the odds on Buttigieg are far too short.

rottenborough said:

AndyJS said:

rottenborough said:

AndyJS said:

brokenwheel said:

Nice little factoid;

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1117021768697491461

As much as 16%? I'm surprised.

No chance.

Do you think they might go below 16%? It wasn't exactly helpful for Hammond to say the Euro election would be a pointless exercise. Why should Tory campaigners get off their backsides to deliver leaflets with the Chancellor saying that sort of thing.

Feels like they are going to get pounded to be honest. Many Tories will sit it out rather than be disloyal, leaving a significant % who are so angry they vote Brexit Party.

At least for council elections there is the argument that you are electing a local person to deal with the bins not Brexit.

EU elections are a free hit.

And frankly it is a looming and avoidable disaster which will make Farage even more of household name than is already.

Speaking as a dyed in the wool PB Tory, if I were to vote I'd probably be in that second category.

The best chance for Labour to win an election is for the Leave vote to split .

That does much more damage to the Tories because they’re much more reliant on that . Those Labour Leavers are now scraping around 15% to 20% who still think leaving was the right thing to do .

Even in northern Leave seats a strong majority of Labour voters wanted to Remain . Some of the Labour MPs seem unable to understand this and seem to form their opinion on the amount of angry emails they get from Leave constituents .

AndyJS said:

The Tories must surely be a bit shocked by the YouGov Euro poll putting them only 2% ahead of Gerard Batten's UKIP which has Tommy Robinson as an adviser.

I hope they are not surprised. All highly predictable.

Mr. D, as 'PB Tory', I don't want to vote for Farage, I don't want to vote for UKIP, and voting Conservative might be misinterpreted as support for the wretched May.

Obviously I'm not voting Communist, Green, or Lib Dem.

My current plan for the European elections is to hope the Pirate Party is standing.

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

brendan16 said:

bigjohnowls said:

CROSSSOOOOOVVVVVEEEERRRRR

LAB: 32% (+1)
CON: 28% (-4)
LDM: 11% (-1)
BXP: 8% (+3)
UKIP: 6% (-1)
CHUK: 3% (New)

Via @YouGov, 10-11 Apr.
Changes w/ 2-3 Apr.

Very poor GE poll for Chuk there - I doubt Allen personally outing Tory MPs today as potential defectors will help their cause much either. The list was rather obvious anyway - remain MPs who didn't back May's deal bar Grieve and Clarke.

Also quite an interesting split on the you gov EU election poll between 2016 remain and leave voters. UKIP/Brexit party combined poll 58% with the latter but only 4% of the former. Labour win 37% of remainers but only 11% of leavers with the Tories polling 15 and 18% respectively. The LDs win 14% of remainers but only 2% of 2016 leavers.

Even though this election doesn't really matter in terms of what most MEPs achieve it will be quite fascinating - and its quite important to the viability of Chuk, UKIP and the BP and to some extent the Greens as it gets you a lot of funding from Brussels.

European Election

2016 remain voters only

LAB-S&D: 37%
CON-ECR: 15%
LDEM-ALDE: 14%
GREEN-G/EFA: 12%
ChUK-*: 10%
SNP/PC-G/EFA: 7%
BREXIT-EFDD: 2%
UKIP-ENF: 2%

European Election

2016 leave voters only

BREXIT-EFDD: 31%
UKIP-ENF: 27%
CON-ECR: 18%
LAB-S&D: 11%
SNP/PC-G/EFA: 4%
ChUK-*: 3%
GREEN-G/EFA: 3%
LDEM-ALDE: 2%

Interesting the Tories now have the closest balance between Leavers and Remainers on the Euro elections poll, with Tory Leave voters now only 3% more than Tory Remain voters thanks to defections to the Brexit Party and UKIP

The Scottish and Welsh nationalists also have a fairly close balance between Leave and Remain.

They are still more Remain than the Tories Euro election voters are Leave though

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. D, as 'PB Tory', I don't want to vote for Farage, I don't want to vote for UKIP, and voting Conservative might be misinterpreted as support for the wretched May.

Obviously I'm not voting Communist, Green, or Lib Dem.

My current plan for the European elections is to hope the Pirate Party is standing.

Elvis Bus Pass?

brendan16 said:

HYUFD said:

brendan16 said:

bigjohnowls said:

CROSSSOOOOOVVVVVEEEERRRRR

LAB: 32% (+1)
CON: 28% (-4)
LDM: 11% (-1)
BXP: 8% (+3)
UKIP: 6% (-1)
CHUK: 3% (New)

Via @YouGov, 10-11 Apr.
Changes w/ 2-3 Apr.

Very poor GE poll for Chuk there - I doubt Allen personally outing Tory MPs today as potential defectors will help their cause much either. The list was rather obvious anyway - remain MPs who didn't back May's deal bar Grieve and Clarke.

Also quite an interesting split on the you gov EU election poll between 2016 remain and leave voters. UKIP/Brexit party combined poll 58% with the latter but only 4% of the former. Labour win 37% of remainers but only 11% of leavers with the Tories polling 15 and 18% respectively. The LDs win 14% of remainers but only 2% of 2016 leavers.

Even though this election doesn't really matter in terms of what most MEPs achieve it will be quite fascinating - and its quite important to the viability of Chuk, UKIP and the BP and to some extent the Greens as it gets you a lot of funding from Brussels.

European Election

2016 remain voters only

LAB-S&D: 37%
CON-ECR: 15%
LDEM-ALDE: 14%
GREEN-G/EFA: 12%
ChUK-*: 10%
SNP/PC-G/EFA: 7%
BREXIT-EFDD: 2%
UKIP-ENF: 2%

European Election

2016 leave voters only

BREXIT-EFDD: 31%
UKIP-ENF: 27%
CON-ECR: 18%
LAB-S&D: 11%
SNP/PC-G/EFA: 4%
ChUK-*: 3%
GREEN-G/EFA: 3%
LDEM-ALDE: 2%

Interesting the Tories now have the closest balance between Leavers and Remainers on the Euro elections poll, with Tory Leave voters now only 3% more than Tory Remain voters thanks to defections to the Brexit Party and UKIP

That of course is based on a poll where the Tories get 16 per cent nationally. They really can’t afford to lose those leave voters - 23 May might be a protest but there is a risk it could become a trend. It’s all about momentum as you might well say.

It wasn’t long ago we thought a Rees Mogg might Become our next PM - we didn’t think it could be Nancy though!!!

Of course, however May must stay PM to get the Deal through and protect the economy and the Union even though the Tories take the hit with defections to UKIP and the Brexit Party, then I suspect Raab or Boris would win the leadership and the members' vote on a hard Brexit ticket once May goes before the next general election

If Labour explicitly backs remain they will mop up.

HYUFD said:

nico67 said:

The best chance for Labour to win an election is for the Leave vote to split .

That does much more damage to the Tories because they’re much more reliant on that . Those Labour Leavers are now scraping around 15% to 20% who still think leaving was the right thing to do .

Even in northern Leave seats a strong majority of Labour voters wanted to Remain . Some of the Labour MPs seem unable to understand this and seem to form their opinion on the amount of angry emails they get from Leave constituents .

Most of the key marginals voted Leave

That’s not because of Labour Leave votes, it’s the general demographics of the constituency . A split Leave vote helps Labour . If both parties lose some Leavers then it hurts the Tories much more because they are much more reliant on that vote .

And for the euros;

https://www.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1117101882906959873

Main difference is the Labour vote holding better against remain splitters.

This poll began earlier than Yougov though.