politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The overnight developments in Brussels barely move the Brexit

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1116316422790090752

So if you get elected you get 3 months fine dining and wining in Brussels plus, I suppose, a humungous pension for life.

Hmm......

Cyclefree said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1116316422790090752

So if you get elected you get 3 months fine dining and wining in Brussels plus, I suppose, a humungous pension for life.

Hmm......

It's tempting isn't it...

Corbyn citing Varadkar in support of Labours CU plan......

Corbyn responds, tying Labour firmly to a permanent customs union and also wants option of public vote kept open. Confirms my view that Labour wants the Tories to walk away.

GIN1138 said:

Danny565 said:

Safe to say the president who originially took Assange in has a somewhat different view to his successor...

https://twitter.com/MashiRafael/status/1116289091061075968?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1116289091061075968&ref_url=https://www.theguardian.com/media/live/2019/apr/11/wikileaks-founder-julian-assange-arrested-at-the-ecuadorean-embassy-live-updates

I think Ecuador were about to throw him out on the streets (looking at him I wonder whether he had turned their embassy in a foul smelling pigsty) so I guess they thought the whole thing would be more "dignified" if they invited the police in to take him out...

I’m surprised he went for the whole “dragged out by the secret police” rather than the “dignified martyr” motif

eek said:

Cyclefree said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1116316422790090752

So if you get elected you get 3 months fine dining and wining in Brussels plus, I suppose, a humungous pension for life.

Hmm......

It's tempting isn't it...

Plus it's a chance to show people in Europe that not all MEP's are batshit insane......

On the other hand, the chances of being elected are low.

Holding the EU elections is starting to look more opportunity than problem for Labour

kle4 said:

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

From 2010

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/12307023966240768?s=21

This from the man who supported Danish Imams who wanted to suppress cartoons which scrutinised Islam......

Corbyn's attachment to free speech is about as great as my attachment to marathon running.

Fleeting, inconsistent or non existent?

Non-existent.

isam said:

IanB2 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

IanB2 said:

I do think Labour at 11/10 for most Euro seats looks like value. So many Tories are clearly not going to back their own side, and both pro-remain and pro-leave votes are split between rival parties.

I think that is a superb bet. Even better, Betfair Sports/Paddy Power offer 6/4.

Personally I'd put it at about 1/2.

Ladbrokes moved from 11/10 to 10/11

Where on earth are these bets on the Betfair site??

They are not on BFE. Presumably BSB.

Clarke lays into right wing Tory attacks on May, then stresses the case for a customs arrangement

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/1116321220969078785?s=21

But it’s Easter not Christmas

A time for solemn reflection and joy, not one for merriment and mischief making

So we celebrate Jesus brutally dying on the cross by getting a giant bunny rabbit to hide chocolate eggs.

I can't help but feel there is a massive gap in information somewhere.

TOPPING said:

Charles said:

TOPPING said:

Charles said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Terrible to see Theresa 'dismissed from the room' as the rest of the EU discusses our fate - like a naughty schoolgirl by the headmistress and head of house.

No. You always have breakout rooms when you have a negotiation.

Did you expect her to sit in the room and listen to the other side thrash out their position?

Humiliation Charles is in the eyes of commentators and historians. So far the commentators believe the episode was humiliating. We shall wait to see how the historians treat it.

I think the commentators are not unbiased.

Just because an opponent says you have been humiliated it doesn’t mean you have been. At best it means there’s a case to answer.

I don't think The Times for example is particularly known for its bias one way or another or qualifies as "an opponent".

They are looking to sell newspapers

I bet that “May humiliated” is more effective at that than “breakout session in European negotiations to allow European leaders to consider U.K. proposal”

Everyone has an agenda

That’s why historians have a job

Charles said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Charles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

MTimT said:

Charles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Interesting:

The Welsh footballer Ched Evans has agreed an out-of-court settlement with lawyers over their handling of a rape case in which he was imprisoned. It is understood to be around £800,000.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/10/ched-evans-settles-out-of-court-over-lawyers-handling-of-case

So entirely without merit we decided to pay him £800k

Cost of litigation in actual cash, opportunity cost, and diverted strategic attention, vs cost of settlement. Might be 800k is cheap.

Evans would have earnt ~ £2.5 million whilst he was in prison ! £800k settlement (From his lawyers, not the public purse) is nothing I'm going to worry about.

£800K tax-free, though.

Hmm... you mean if I sue one of my own companies and they settle I get a fax free payment.... hmm...

Libelling your children and then settling with them is a way round IHT.

But could damage the @charles brand

The daily mail writes too much about us anyway

What was it Boswell said ?
"...The honour of my family is perhaps a species of self-love."

I totally get the people, even if wrong, who think Assange should never have been sought on the various charges or potential charges he has faced. But I'm baffled if anyone out there suggests he should not be arrested for the bail issue. That at least us surely inarguable.

CarlottaVance said:

Corbyn citing Varadkar in support of Labours CU plan......

The more Corbyn goes on about a permanent Customs Union the more he is making, whether he realises it or not, the case for Remain. If we're going to be tied into all these EU rules - including on workers' rights and environmental standards - we may as well stay as a member and have some say in them. Agreeing to comply with rules without any say at all in them is a pointless way of leaving.

Labour's position is utterly absurd.

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/1116321220969078785?s=21

But it’s Easter not Christmas

A time for solemn reflection and joy, not one for merriment and mischief making

May is probably thinking about something dead being brought back to life......

IanB2 said:

Corbyn responds, tying Labour firmly to a permanent customs union and also wants option of public vote kept open. Confirms my view that Labour wants the Tories to walk away.

Indeed. Labours cu plan and a vote is hardly him giving any ground.

Bill Cash. LOL.

Can he get any more worked up?

...

Cyclefree said:

CarlottaVance said:

Corbyn citing Varadkar in support of Labours CU plan......

The more Corbyn goes on about a permanent Customs Union the more he is making, whether he realises it or not, the case for Remain. If we're going to be tied into all these EU rules - including on workers' rights and environmental standards - we may as well stay as a member and have some say in them. Agreeing to comply with rules without any say at all in them is a pointless way of leaving.

Labour's position is utterly absurd.

On a longer view it sets up a case for rejoining.

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/1116321220969078785?s=21

But it’s Easter not Christmas

A time for solemn reflection and joy, not one for merriment and mischief making

So we celebrate Jesus brutally dying on the cross by getting a giant bunny rabbit to hide chocolate eggs.

I can't help but feel there is a massive gap in information somewhere.

Marketing

Pagans celebrated the spring with egg based ceremonies representing the potential for new life. Christianity adopted the traditions wholesale with symbolic amendments.

It’s why we have Yule logs but also Epiphany, Easter eggs with Grove Tuesday, Halloween and All Souls/All Saints etc

More importantly are the National Trust doing a Easter non-religious egg hunt?

Benn and Spelman both congratulate May for avoiding no deal and for committing to continue to do so.

Nigelb said:

Charles said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Charles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

MTimT said:

Charles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Interesting:

The Welsh footballer Ched Evans has agreed an out-of-court settlement with lawyers over their handling of a rape case in which he was imprisoned. It is understood to be around £800,000.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/10/ched-evans-settles-out-of-court-over-lawyers-handling-of-case

So entirely without merit we decided to pay him £800k

Cost of litigation in actual cash, opportunity cost, and diverted strategic attention, vs cost of settlement. Might be 800k is cheap.

Evans would have earnt ~ £2.5 million whilst he was in prison ! £800k settlement (From his lawyers, not the public purse) is nothing I'm going to worry about.

£800K tax-free, though.

Hmm... you mean if I sue one of my own companies and they settle I get a fax free payment.... hmm...

Libelling your children and then settling with them is a way round IHT.

But could damage the @charles brand

The daily mail writes too much about us anyway

What was it Boswell said ?
"...The honour of my family is perhaps a species of self-love."

May be.

But by coincidence my brother’s company has the same name as me and I wouldn’t want to damage his brand equity. It’s a purely monetary consideration I can assure you!

_Anazina_ said:

isam said:

Stereotomy said:

isam said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1116208675306209280?s=20

The change figures shown are incorrect. The March BMG survey (including TIG) had Con 37 Lab 31 LD 10 TIG 4 UKIP 6 Grn 5

Horoscopes

This one's more exciting:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1116234117748854784

Exactly right. Why people afford so much credence to these random number generators is beyond me.

They have been proven time and again recently to be woefully poor indicators of real election results.

You might as well just make up a load of numbers a discuss what’d happen if that were the result.

isam said:

Stereotomy said:

isam said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1116208675306209280?s=20

The change figures shown are incorrect. The March BMG survey (including TIG) had Con 37 Lab 31 LD 10 TIG 4 UKIP 6 Grn 5

Horoscopes

This one's more exciting:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1116234117748854784

You might as well just make up a load of numbers a discuss what’d happen if that were the result.

Exactly right. Why people afford so much credence to these random number generators is beyond me.

They have been proven time and again recently to be woefully poor indicators of real election results.

You might as well just make up a load of numbers a discuss what’d happen if that were the result.

Cyclefree said:

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/1116321220969078785?s=21

But it’s Easter not Christmas

A time for solemn reflection and joy, not one for merriment and mischief making

May is probably thinking about something dead being brought back to life......

😆

Although replacing Christmas with Easter is a substantial change, Speaker Bercow

DUP challenging May on "talk" that the government plans to extend the parliamentary session beyond two years.

May avoids the question altogether

SandyRentool said:

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

Corbyn responds, tying Labour firmly to a permanent customs union and also wants option of public vote kept open. Confirms my view that Labour wants the Tories to walk away.

Indeed. Labours cu plan and a vote is hardly him giving any ground.

There's only one person here giving no ground, and that's May.

Obviously untrue. She hasn't yet, no one is saying she is blameless. But in a negotiation both sides move, even if one more than the other. If Corbyn is literally demanding labour policy as it currently stands in its entirety hes not moving. Movement pre negotiation is irrelevant. Not least since even if Mat adopts the labour cu plan Corbyn is apparently saying he wont give ground on a public vote.

So no, May being obstructive does not mean others get away with the same.

IanB2 said:

UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

European Parliament

LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
SNP-G/EFA: 2
Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
DUP-NI: 1
SF-LEFT: 1
UUP-ECR: 1

By comparison with other pollsters, the tables for that Open Europe poll are pretty rubbish in terms of the lack of detail. There is no breakdown of the weighting strategy and with minimum categories disclosed other than current vote (only age, region and referendum vote). It infers that there were in fact very few weighting categories. Moreover, the poll was conducted "..... using modelled data from smartphone applications to engage a nationally representative sample. " So, a telephone poll excluding landlines and quite possibly with an inadequate weighting strategy, and with no track record from past elections that might help adjust for the bias that that could cause.

All tables on VI exclude DKs and more importantly DVs. All we know is that 27% of Leave supporters gave the likelihood of their voting as only 1 or 2 out of 10, compared to only 8% of Remain supporters. So it would be fair to conclude that some of the big swing shown is likely to be due to Conservatives and former UKIPers boycotting the poll on an even lower overall turnout than usual.

https://hanburystrategycloud.filecloudonline.com/ui/core/index.html?mode=single&path=/SHARED/data/gux0YC3cc8BBIHJB

GIN1138 said:

kle4 said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/1116321220969078785?s=21

All May has to do is say two little words:

I Resign.

That doesnt get anything approved. It unlocks more movement but that's it.

So what?

There has to be an evisceration and that has to be Theresa Mays.

I'm in favour of her going. I just think it is important to recognise it doesnt achieve as much as one might hope. That's what.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1116326821036011526

Sean_F said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

IanB2 said:

I do think Labour at 11/10 for most Euro seats looks like value. So many Tories are clearly not going to back their own side, and both pro-remain and pro-leave votes are split between rival parties.

I think that is a superb bet. Even better, Betfair Sports/Paddy Power offer 6/4.

Personally I'd put it at about 1/2.

I'd say 11/10 is about right.

I'd expect both Labour and the Conservatives to be close to 20%.

I can't see any prospect that the Tories can beat Labour in the Euros right now.

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/1116321220969078785?s=21

But it’s Easter not Christmas

A time for solemn reflection and joy, not one for merriment and mischief making

So we celebrate Jesus brutally dying on the cross by getting a giant bunny rabbit to hide chocolate eggs.

I can't help but feel there is a massive gap in information somewhere.

Marketing

Pagans celebrated the spring with egg based ceremonies representing the potential for new life. Christianity adopted the traditions wholesale with symbolic amendments.

It’s why we have Yule logs but also Epiphany, Easter eggs with Grove Tuesday, Halloween and All Souls/All Saints etc

Grove Tuesday is presumably for worshippers of this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_OFesTKDX8

Charles said:

_Anazina_ said:

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/1116321220969078785?s=21

But it’s Easter not Christmas

A time for solemn reflection and joy, not one for merriment and mischief making

Both are entirely atheistic pagan excuses for pissups in our house. Aren't they in yours?

Why do you need an excuse for a pissup?

Fair point!

IanB2 said:

Cyclefree said:

CarlottaVance said:

Corbyn citing Varadkar in support of Labours CU plan......

The more Corbyn goes on about a permanent Customs Union the more he is making, whether he realises it or not, the case for Remain. If we're going to be tied into all these EU rules - including on workers' rights and environmental standards - we may as well stay as a member and have some say in them. Agreeing to comply with rules without any say at all in them is a pointless way of leaving.

Labour's position is utterly absurd.

On a longer view it sets up a case for rejoining.

Rejoining in a few years is going to be a much much more difficult sell than continuing to stay in on the existing terms. Rejoining in a few years if Brexit proves to be a disaster or because we find it intolerable to have rules dictated to us will be rejoining for the wrong reasons. It will be to repeat the same mistake when we joined in 1973 from a position of economic weakness rather than for positive reasons.

CarlottaVance said:

Corbyn citing Varadkar in support of Labours CU plan......

They both want a united Ireland. Both I think look favourably on the backstop in that context. Corbyn will certainly not see it as a constraint upon his future actions.

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

Sean_F said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

IanB2 said:

I do think Labour at 11/10 for most Euro seats looks like value. So many Tories are clearly not going to back their own side, and both pro-remain and pro-leave votes are split between rival parties.

I think that is a superb bet. Even better, Betfair Sports/Paddy Power offer 6/4.

Personally I'd put it at about 1/2.

I'd say 11/10 is about right.

I'd expect both Labour and the Conservatives to be close to 20%.

I can't see any prospect that the Tories can beat Labour in the Euros right now.

It will be a case of which loses most votes to their pro-Brexit/ pro-Remain flanks, respectively.

Most of May's leave flank already voted UKIP. Which is just as well given she won't get them back

Sean_F said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

IanB2 said:

I do think Labour at 11/10 for most Euro seats looks like value. So many Tories are clearly not going to back their own side, and both pro-remain and pro-leave votes are split between rival parties.

I think that is a superb bet. Even better, Betfair Sports/Paddy Power offer 6/4.

Personally I'd put it at about 1/2.

I'd say 11/10 is about right.

I'd expect both Labour and the Conservatives to be close to 20%.

Certainly both parties' voters will be staying away in droves, but the Conservatives have the bigger problem of having alienated both pro-Brexit and anti-Brexit voters, as well as centrist voters gobsmacked at the in-fighting and the anti-business tilt. In addition activists are thoroughly demoralised or actively hostile to the leadership. Labour on the other hand, although also split, has been more disciplined and will be able to mount some kind of campaign, and it's easier from opposition anyway.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, NATO doesn't integrate endlessly, doesn't make us pay billions a year for the privilege of membership, doesn't impose legislation on us, doesn't strip vetoes for QMV, etc etc etc.

All of which are completely outwith your original complaints:

To whom would said army be responsible? Who would be commander in chief? What if the UK faced a threat to the Falklands and the French [US} to one of their outlying territories: whose defence would be prioritised? Would British soldiers be loyal to HM and the UK or the EU NATO?

Which implies that your original complaints were answerable (and have been answered in the NATO precedent); your other ones are general EU issues rather than EU army issues.

kle4 said:

Cyclefree said:

CarlottaVance said:

Corbyn citing Varadkar in support of Labours CU plan......

The more Corbyn goes on about a permanent Customs Union the more he is making, whether he realises it or not, the case for Remain. If we're going to be tied into all these EU rules - including on workers' rights and environmental standards - we may as well stay as a member and have some say in them. Agreeing to comply with rules without any say at all in them is a pointless way of leaving.

Labour's position is utterly absurd.

The position is to tip toe to remain. It keeps members happy and it justify labour leavers not flouncing out as they did officially try to leave

It's not tiptoe to remain. It's a dance to make naive Remainers think that Labour is on their side without actually doing anything to make us Remain.

I know Labour people say that Corbyn has changed his mind on the EU. I don't believe them. He likes the bits of the EU that accord with his views but not the rest. So he will - from the outside - pick and choose those bits he likes. That's very different from saying that he is pro-Remain now that we're heading for the exit.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1116328882737680384

Well, the sense of relief lasted long didn't it.

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1116328882737680384

Well, the sense of relief lasted long didn't it.

How can the DUP force an end to the session?

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sean_F said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

IanB2 said:

I do think Labour at 11/10 for most Euro seats looks like value. So many Tories are clearly not going to back their own side, and both pro-remain and pro-leave votes are split between rival parties.

I think that is a superb bet. Even better, Betfair Sports/Paddy Power offer 6/4.

Personally I'd put it at about 1/2.

I'd say 11/10 is about right.

I'd expect both Labour and the Conservatives to be close to 20%.

Certainly both parties' voters will be staying away in droves, but the Conservatives have the bigger problem of having alienated both pro-Brexit and anti-Brexit voters, as well as centrist voters gobsmacked at the in-fighting and the anti-business tilt. In addition activists are thoroughly demoralised or actively hostile to the leadership. Labour on the other hand, although also split, has been more disciplined and will be able to mount some kind of campaign, and it's easier from opposition anyway.

I'd not expect Labour to get a higher vote share than the 24% they won in 2014. That might be sufficient to come first, but they might also do worse. Bear in mind that Labour's poll ratings are worse than in 2014.

IanB2 said:

UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

European Parliament

LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
SNP-G/EFA: 2
Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
DUP-NI: 1
SF-LEFT: 1
UUP-ECR: 1

why do the pluses in brackets add up to +21 but the minuses only add up to -10? what am I missing?

Charles said:

Nigelb said:

Charles said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Charles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

MTimT said:

Charles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Interesting:

The Welsh footballer Ched Evans has agreed an out-of-court settlement with lawyers over their handling of a rape case in which he was imprisoned. It is understood to be around £800,000.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/10/ched-evans-settles-out-of-court-over-lawyers-handling-of-case

So entirely without merit we decided to pay him £800k

Cost of litigation in actual cash, opportunity cost, and diverted strategic attention, vs cost of settlement. Might be 800k is cheap.

Evans would have earnt ~ £2.5 million whilst he was in prison ! £800k settlement (From his lawyers, not the public purse) is nothing I'm going to worry about.

£800K tax-free, though.

Hmm... you mean if I sue one of my own companies and they settle I get a fax free payment.... hmm...

Libelling your children and then settling with them is a way round IHT.

But could damage the @charles brand

The daily mail writes too much about us anyway

What was it Boswell said ?
"...The honour of my family is perhaps a species of self-love."

May be.

But by coincidence my brother’s company has the same name as me and I wouldn’t want to damage his brand equity. It’s a purely monetary consideration I can assure you!

May saying there will still be a government-managed options vote process.

paulyork64 said:

IanB2 said:

UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

European Parliament

LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
SNP-G/EFA: 2
Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
DUP-NI: 1
SF-LEFT: 1
UUP-ECR: 1

why do the pluses in brackets add up to +21 but the minuses only add up to -10? what am I missing?

8 independents and 1 vacant by my count

SDP -1
PC -1

Charles said:

TOPPING said:

Charles said:

TOPPING said:

Charles said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Terrible to see Theresa 'dismissed from the room' as the rest of the EU discusses our fate - like a naughty schoolgirl by the headmistress and head of house.

No. You always have breakout rooms when you have a negotiation.

Did you expect her to sit in the room and listen to the other side thrash out their position?

Humiliation Charles is in the eyes of commentators and historians. So far the commentators believe the episode was humiliating. We shall wait to see how the historians treat it.

I think the commentators are not unbiased.

Just because an opponent says you have been humiliated it doesn’t mean you have been. At best it means there’s a case to answer.

I don't think The Times for example is particularly known for its bias one way or another or qualifies as "an opponent".

They are looking to sell newspapers

I bet that “May humiliated” is more effective at that than “breakout session in European negotiations to allow European leaders to consider U.K. proposal”

Everyone has an agenda

That’s why historians have a job

The point about this was that the breakout session was "sovereign", to borrow a phrase. We submitted our case and then had no comeback to whatever they decided.

As to the historians, well there is no objective history while we're at it but that is why I said we shall have to wait to see how the historians treat it (who will use such contemporary reports as, er, newspapers to inform their views).

IanB2 said:

paulyork64 said:

IanB2 said:

UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

European Parliament

LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
SNP-G/EFA: 2
Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
DUP-NI: 1
SF-LEFT: 1
UUP-ECR: 1

why do the pluses in brackets add up to +21 but the minuses only add up to -10? what am I missing?

A whole batch of the elected UKIP MEPs are now independents

gotcha. thanks to all for the replies.

paulyork64 said:

IanB2 said:

UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

European Parliament

LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
SNP-G/EFA: 2
Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
DUP-NI: 1
SF-LEFT: 1
UUP-ECR: 1

why do the pluses in brackets add up to +21 but the minuses only add up to -10? what am I missing?

Presume there are fewer DKs or will not vote from last time. Doesn't quite ring true in the circumstances.

Cyclefree said:

IanB2 said:

Cyclefree said:

CarlottaVance said:

Corbyn citing Varadkar in support of Labours CU plan......

The more Corbyn goes on about a permanent Customs Union the more he is making, whether he realises it or not, the case for Remain. If we're going to be tied into all these EU rules - including on workers' rights and environmental standards - we may as well stay as a member and have some say in them. Agreeing to comply with rules without any say at all in them is a pointless way of leaving.

Labour's position is utterly absurd.

On a longer view it sets up a case for rejoining.

Rejoining in a few years is going to be a much much more difficult sell than continuing to stay in on the existing terms. Rejoining in a few years if Brexit proves to be a disaster or because we find it intolerable to have rules dictated to us will be rejoining for the wrong reasons. It will be to repeat the same mistake when we joined in 1973 from a position of economic weakness rather than for positive reasons.

The Europeans interviewed in the early hours of this morning were talking about it taking "a generation" for us to sort ourselves out before any re-admission, so I think you're right about the difficulty, and "the wrong reasons" would likely meet with a French veto.