I do think Labour at 11/10 for most Euro seats looks like value. So many Tories are clearly not going to back their own side, and both pro-remain and pro-leave votes are split between rival parties.
I think that is a superb bet. Even better, Betfair Sports/Paddy Power offer 6/4.
Personally I'd put it at about 1/2.
Ladbrokes moved from 11/10 to 10/11
Where on earth are these bets on the Betfair site??
UK- Brexit outright
Cheers I’m on!
Does seem funny pricing to think the Tories are 6/4 too... match bet would be nice!
I do think Labour at 11/10 for most Euro seats looks like value. So many Tories are clearly not going to back their own side, and both pro-remain and pro-leave votes are split between rival parties.
I think that is a superb bet. Even better, Betfair Sports/Paddy Power offer 6/4.
Personally I'd put it at about 1/2.
I'd say 11/10 is about right.
I'd expect both Labour and the Conservatives to be close to 20%.
Certainly both parties' voters will be staying away in droves, but the Conservatives have the bigger problem of having alienated both pro-Brexit and anti-Brexit voters, as well as centrist voters gobsmacked at the in-fighting and the anti-business tilt. In addition activists are thoroughly demoralised or actively hostile to the leadership. Labour on the other hand, although also split, has been more disciplined and will be able to mount some kind of campaign, and it's easier from opposition anyway.
you need to knock on a few labour leave doors. it is utterly grim....
I do think Labour at 11/10 for most Euro seats looks like value. So many Tories are clearly not going to back their own side, and both pro-remain and pro-leave votes are split between rival parties.
I think that is a superb bet. Even better, Betfair Sports/Paddy Power offer 6/4.
Personally I'd put it at about 1/2.
I'd say 11/10 is about right.
I'd expect both Labour and the Conservatives to be close to 20%.
Certainly both parties' voters will be staying away in droves, but the Conservatives have the bigger problem of having alienated both pro-Brexit and anti-Brexit voters, as well as centrist voters gobsmacked at the in-fighting and the anti-business tilt. In addition activists are thoroughly demoralised or actively hostile to the leadership. Labour on the other hand, although also split, has been more disciplined and will be able to mount some kind of campaign, and it's easier from opposition anyway.
you need to knock on a few labour leave doors. it is utterly grim....
I don't doubt that, but I think the Tories can more than match the grimness. The difference is surely that Leave voters are a relatively small proportion of the Labour electorate.
Corbyn citing Varadkar in support of Labours CU plan......
The more Corbyn goes on about a permanent Customs Union the more he is making, whether he realises it or not, the case for Remain. If we're going to be tied into all these EU rules - including on workers' rights and environmental standards - we may as well stay as a member and have some say in them. Agreeing to comply with rules without any say at all in them is a pointless way of leaving.
Labour's position is utterly absurd.
On a longer view it sets up a case for rejoining.
Rejoining in a few years is going to be a much much more difficult sell than continuing to stay in on the existing terms. Rejoining in a few years if Brexit proves to be a disaster or because we find it intolerable to have rules dictated to us will be rejoining for the wrong reasons. It will be to repeat the same mistake when we joined in 1973 from a position of economic weakness rather than for positive reasons.
The Europeans interviewed in the early hours of this morning were talking about it taking "a generation" for us to sort ourselves out before any re-admission, so I think you're right about the difficulty, and "the wrong reasons" would likely meet with a French veto.
Unlike TSE I think that if we leave now, it will be years and years before we rejoin, if ever. It's one reason I suppose why I think we should press the Pause button while we actually work out what it is we want rather than acting first and then wondering what the hell we want. For instance, for an economy largely based on services which has done pretty well inside the EU, we have done little thinking on how we are going to survive - let alone thrive - outside when most FTA's don't really deal with services at all.
We should do the thinking first then act. We have done no thinking at all. IMO it is absurd to act without it.
In reply to Richard Harrington May does not rule out using preferential voting in the indicative votes she will put forward if talks with Labour fail on future relationship options
Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.
Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
May now committing to work with the opposition to identify the options and the voting system to be used for the Parliamentary options process.
Looks to me that May is now relying on getting this done quickly after the recess and hoping she can then get some consensus exit route (presumably close to CU or CM2) through the House in time to still leave in May.
The corollary is that she isn't expecting anything to come of the Labour talks.
How do they do the regional breakdowns. Its possible to win a seat on Say 7 per cent in the south east or London regions but you would need 25 per cent in the north east. This is illustrated by 2014 where the Lib Dems only got 1 MEP in the 11 seater south east region and none elsewhere.
This regional issue may cost UKIP and the Brexit party as well as the chukkers/Greens lots of seats if they split the vote and help the two main parties. Many EU member states have national lists so they have full proportionality.
Corbyn citing Varadkar in support of Labours CU plan......
The more Corbyn goes on about a permanent Customs Union the more he is making, whether he realises it or not, the case for Remain. If we're going to be tied into all these EU rules - including on workers' rights and environmental standards - we may as well stay as a member and have some say in them. Agreeing to comply with rules without any say at all in them is a pointless way of leaving.
Labour's position is utterly absurd.
On a longer view it sets up a case for rejoining.
Rejoining in a few years is going to be a much much more difficult sell than continuing to stay in on the existing terms. Rejoining in a few years if Brexit proves to be a disaster or because we find it intolerable to have rules dictated to us will be rejoining for the wrong reasons. It will be to repeat the same mistake when we joined in 1973 from a position of economic weakness rather than for positive reasons.
The Europeans interviewed in the early hours of this morning were talking about it taking "a generation" for us to sort ourselves out before any re-admission, so I think you're right about the difficulty, and "the wrong reasons" would likely meet with a French veto.
Unlike TSE I think that if we leave now, it will be years and years before we rejoin, if ever. It's one reason I suppose why I think we should press the Pause button while we actually work out what it is we want rather than acting first and then wondering what the hell we want. For instance, for an economy largely based on services which has done pretty well inside the EU, we have done little thinking on how we are going to survive - let alone thrive - outside when most FTA's don't really deal with services at all.
We should do the thinking first then act. We have done no thinking at all. IMO it is absurd to act without it.
How do they do the regional breakdowns. Its possible to win a seat on Say 7 per cent in the south east or London regions but you would need 25 per cent in the north east. This is illustrated by 2014 where the Lib Dems only got 1 MEP in the 11 seater south east region and none elsewhere.
This regional issue may cost UKIP and the Brexit party as well as the chukkers/Greens lots of seats. Many EU member states have national lists so they have full proportionality.
For sure. They have a choice between the regional breakdowns of the subsample or some UNS model. Either way these elections will be harder to predict than usual, with surely a greater pro-Remain surge in south than north and vice versa for Brexit.
I do think Labour at 11/10 for most Euro seats looks like value. So many Tories are clearly not going to back their own side, and both pro-remain and pro-leave votes are split between rival parties.
I think that is a superb bet. Even better, Betfair Sports/Paddy Power offer 6/4.
Personally I'd put it at about 1/2.
I'd say 11/10 is about right.
I'd expect both Labour and the Conservatives to be close to 20%.
Certainly both parties' voters will be staying away in droves, but the Conservatives have the bigger problem of having alienated both pro-Brexit and anti-Brexit voters, as well as centrist voters gobsmacked at the in-fighting and the anti-business tilt. In addition activists are thoroughly demoralised or actively hostile to the leadership. Labour on the other hand, although also split, has been more disciplined and will be able to mount some kind of campaign, and it's easier from opposition anyway.
you need to knock on a few labour leave doors. it is utterly grim....
I don't doubt that, but I think the Tories can more than match the grimness. The difference is surely that Leave voters are a relatively small proportion of the Labour electorate.
There are three Leave parties, and six Remain parties (assuming you count Labour with them), who have a realistic chance of winning seats. While I've no doubt that Labour will do best among the latter, whether they come first will depend on how the vote divides among the former.
I do think Labour at 11/10 for most Euro seats looks like value. So many Tories are clearly not going to back their own side, and both pro-remain and pro-leave votes are split between rival parties.
I think that is a superb bet. Even better, Betfair Sports/Paddy Power offer 6/4.
Personally I'd put it at about 1/2.
I'd say 11/10 is about right.
I'd expect both Labour and the Conservatives to be close to 20%.
Certainly both parties' voters will be staying away in droves, but the Conservatives have the bigger problem of having alienated both pro-Brexit and anti-Brexit voters, as well as centrist voters gobsmacked at the in-fighting and the anti-business tilt. In addition activists are thoroughly demoralised or actively hostile to the leadership. Labour on the other hand, although also split, has been more disciplined and will be able to mount some kind of campaign, and it's easier from opposition anyway.
you need to knock on a few labour leave doors. it is utterly grim....
I don't doubt that, but I think the Tories can more than match the grimness. The difference is surely that Leave voters are a relatively small proportion of the Labour electorate.
Thats true only in some areas. Council estates round me that are notionally Labour but have a con vote. Very very grim, canvassers getting chased away and swore ar.
Does anyone know how hard it would be to get "the Remain coalition" past the Electoral Commission? Logically LD, TIG, Green and possibly even the nationalists would be far better off trading under this name and horse-trading who sits where on each regional list.
The whole centre setup is a big enough topic for a thread header, it is currently ill adapted to the kind of broad church ideal that left and right still hold to, even if in those places it is in retreat. The Lib Dems should have been set up to be alive to this, given a decent part of their last growth cycle was due the ultimately efficient way they handled the SDP split, that major fractures in UK politics occur in most generations (albeit Libs had their share), and that they are likely to calve to the centre as to the fringes. They should have in their organisation vulcanologists, looking at what seismicity is brewing and suggesting responses, they should have a constitution that envisages how they work across the centre and present a face to new fragments, and they should be as efficient as Mike Ashley in chasing down the opportunities that present themselves.
We should be at the stage already where there are broad understandings between the at least 27 MPs who occupy that corner of the commons, not just on issues like Brexit, but on electoral strategy. If this needs some Clause 4 type surgery on constitutions, if this needs local associations to be set up ready to cooperate, please do that work, but start now - do not be afraid of those few who think social democrat and old school liberal wings are already an uncomfortably broad church (clue: no, you are not a classical liberal even if you read the Orange Book) and huff off to wear a slightly deeper shade of orange.
Do it, do it now, let's get to a point where local LD, CHUK, Plaid, Green have a mechanism that allows for local alliances to come to agreements on candidates to put forward. Something that, even if not everywhere, works in many places. And let's work, on a more limited basis, with the SNP (non contention in Grampian and Edinburgh S perhaps plus develop a clear set of principles within the core cooperation group on how referenda and devolution power changes are conducted) and towards something broader than the Alliance in NI (preferably before the SDLP realign cross border).
F1 pre-qualifying ramble will be up tomorrow, as qualifying starts at 7am so I won't be getting up in time to put up the pre-qualifying tosh on Saturday.
How do they do the regional breakdowns. Its possible to win a seat on Say 7 per cent in the south east or London regions but you would need 25 per cent in the north east. This is illustrated by 2014 where the Lib Dems only got 1 MEP in the 11 seater south east region and none elsewhere.
This regional issue may cost UKIP and the Brexit party as well as the chukkers/Greens lots of seats if they split the vote and help the two main parties. Many EU member states have national lists so they have full proportionality.
27 Lab 20 Brexit 18 Lib Dem 17 UKIP 14 Con
You don't necessarily need 25% I think - the above result would produce 1 seat for BREXIT/UKIP/Lib Dem and Labour in the North East ?
Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.
Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
Polling is mixed on it. Their party status will be sorted in the next couple of weeks and they already have regional set ups in place. Theh should start figuring in local by elections over the summer. If they can avoid a GE 2019 they ought to become established and getting 5 to 10% in the euros as polling suggests is possible will put them on the map
Terrible to see Theresa 'dismissed from the room' as the rest of the EU discusses our fate - like a naughty schoolgirl by the headmistress and head of house.
No. You always have breakout rooms when you have a negotiation.
Did you expect her to sit in the room and listen to the other side thrash out their position?
Humiliation Charles is in the eyes of commentators and historians. So far the commentators believe the episode was humiliating. We shall wait to see how the historians treat it.
I think the commentators are not unbiased.
Just because an opponent says you have been humiliated it doesn’t mean you have been. At best it means there’s a case to answer.
I don't think The Times for example is particularly known for its bias one way or another or qualifies as "an opponent".
They are looking to sell newspapers
I bet that “May humiliated” is more effective at that than “breakout session in European negotiations to allow European leaders to consider U.K. proposal”
Everyone has an agenda
That’s why historians have a job
The point about this was that the breakout session was "sovereign", to borrow a phrase. We submitted our case and then had no comeback to whatever they decided.
As to the historians, well there is no objective history while we're at it but that is why I said we shall have to wait to see how the historians treat it (who will use such contemporary reports as, er, newspapers to inform their views).
Um. No. It wasn’t sovereign
We made a negotiating proposal to our counterpart. They considered it and made a counter proposal. We were prepared to accept their counter proposal. Sovereignty doesn’t come into it.
- keep the parliamentary session running - Labour discussions go nowhere - options vote process late April (detail sorted out during the recess) - use preferential voting to force an outcome - accept whatever emerges as the will of the house (avoids her making concessions personally) - hope the final preference then passes a yes/no vote - deal/ignore the matter of a future leader undoing everything - hope/whip to avoid the PV amendment passing - endeavour to get the WAIB through in time to avoid the EU elections - departure date in May or June
We may end up with the Remain side doing the filibustering i
PC coming close to raising the issue of Welsh Independence. Not heard such a strong statement from them before.
Wales voted Leave just like England, Plaid are not in power at Cardiff and not one poll Westminster or Assembly has Plaid ahead so they can be ignored
Let's face it, Wales could have voted Remain, Plaid could be in power at Cardiff, get 95% of Westminster seats & lead in the polls, and still be ignored.
Erm ... assuming TIG / Change UK are able to stand then their absence from this poll, and the resultant figures here, make it worthless.
Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
Rather a lot of wishful thinking there. TIG have yet to be granted status as a political party by the Electoral Commission. They will have little entitlement to campaign coverage by the broadcasters and have already been largely forgotten by the electorate at large. Unlike the SDP in 1981 , there is little sense that they are breaking through.
Polling is mixed on it. Their party status will be sorted in the next couple of weeks and they already have regional set ups in place. Theh should start figuring in local by elections over the summer. If they can avoid a GE 2019 they ought to become established and getting 5 to 10% in the euros as polling suggests is possible will put them on the map
But the SDP on its own was scoring 30% plus in hypothetical polls in Spring 1981 prior to the Warrington by election held in July that year. TIG are not in the same ball park - more akin to KilroySilk's Veritas!
Comments
Does seem funny pricing to think the Tories are 6/4 too... match bet would be nice!
Con / Lab will tank in the European elections and the fight will become TIG-LibDems vs Brexit parties
2010 GE Con maj nailed on / lost
2015 NOM free money 1/10 lost
2016 EU ref Remain 1/14 lost
2017 Con maj 1/6 lost
Reverse indicators. More fool the odds compiler who prices stuff up on the back of them
Is Survation the gold standard now?
We should do the thinking first then act. We have done no thinking at all. IMO it is absurd to act without it.
Looks to me that May is now relying on getting this done quickly after the recess and hoping she can then get some consensus exit route (presumably close to CU or CM2) through the House in time to still leave in May.
The corollary is that she isn't expecting anything to come of the Labour talks.
This regional issue may cost UKIP and the Brexit party as well as the chukkers/Greens lots of seats if they split the vote and help the two main parties. Many EU member states have national lists so they have full proportionality.
How are the media going to wriggle out of putting Batten front and centre of them?
We should be at the stage already where there are broad understandings between the at least 27 MPs who occupy that corner of the commons, not just on issues like Brexit, but on electoral strategy. If this needs some Clause 4 type surgery on constitutions, if this needs local associations to be set up ready to cooperate, please do that work, but start now - do not be afraid of those few who think social democrat and old school liberal wings are already an uncomfortably broad church (clue: no, you are not a classical liberal even if you read the Orange Book) and huff off to wear a slightly deeper shade of orange.
Do it, do it now, let's get to a point where local LD, CHUK, Plaid, Green have a mechanism that allows for local alliances to come to agreements on candidates to put forward. Something that, even if not everywhere, works in many places. And let's work, on a more limited basis, with the SNP (non contention in Grampian and Edinburgh S perhaps plus develop a clear set of principles within the core cooperation group on how referenda and devolution power changes are conducted) and towards something broader than the Alliance in NI (preferably before the SDLP realign cross border).
F1 pre-qualifying ramble will be up tomorrow, as qualifying starts at 7am so I won't be getting up in time to put up the pre-qualifying tosh on Saturday.
20 Brexit
18 Lib Dem
17 UKIP
14 Con
You don't necessarily need 25% I think - the above result would produce 1 seat for BREXIT/UKIP/Lib Dem and Labour in the North East ?
If they can avoid a GE 2019 they ought to become established and getting 5 to 10% in the euros as polling suggests is possible will put them on the map
We made a negotiating proposal to our counterpart. They considered it and made a counter proposal. We were prepared to accept their counter proposal. Sovereignty doesn’t come into it.
This thread has been
REVOKED
- keep the parliamentary session running
- Labour discussions go nowhere
- options vote process late April (detail sorted out during the recess)
- use preferential voting to force an outcome
- accept whatever emerges as the will of the house (avoids her making concessions personally)
- hope the final preference then passes a yes/no vote
- deal/ignore the matter of a future leader undoing everything
- hope/whip to avoid the PV amendment passing
- endeavour to get the WAIB through in time to avoid the EU elections
- departure date in May or June
We may end up with the Remain side doing the filibustering i
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1116326060826689538
There must have been a staff change.
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