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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The overnight developments in Brussels barely move the Brexit

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Danny565 said:

    Can anyone remember why Ecuador took in Assange in the first place? For that matter, does Ecuador remember why Ecuador took in Assange in the first place?

    Safe to say the president who originially took Assange in has a somewhat different view to his successor...
    The custody of Julian Assange is the strangest proxy war in history.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    It will be amusing if, despite the media promising a "bloodbath for the main parties", both Labour and the Tories end up gaining seats.

    Though I don't believe for a second Labour are going to gain as many as that.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited April 2019
    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Hanbury Strategy Poll for Open Europe. Who are Hanbury Strategy? Are they members of the polling thingy and what is their record like?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited April 2019

    IanB2 said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour under no pressure now to agree anything with the government . They need to string this out and see the Tories hammered in the Council and EU elections .

    Labour should campaign on the latter with a confirmatory vote . Pro EU voters need to get out and vote in large numbers to stop the hate mongers from framing the narrative .

    Watch Peston and see how quick McDonnell is to pick up on any hint from a Tory that any deal with Labour might be undone. They are already at collecting excuses for the breakdown stage.
    Labour needs answers to two key questions before it does a deal:

    1) How can May guarantee that any deal is not ripped up by her party the moment she steps down?

    2) Why should Labour help the Tories out of a mess of their own creation?

    Hard to see how May can answer these.
    Number 1 is unanswerable full stop by anyone. Once the WA is passed it's passed. Surely it should be judged on it's merits and thats it.
    It seems strange to me that Labour on the cusp of power wants to rip up the convention that a government cannot bind its successor
    It's just an excuse.

    Whichever No-Dealer takes over as Conservative leader after May will not have a majority in Parliament for the hardest of hard Brexits, or for abrogating an International Treaty. We would remain in transition, or the backstop, until a government with a majority for a future relationship was formed. Probably after the general election in 2024. If we're lucky.

    However, since it is unanswerable it is a handy way to deflect from the real reason, which is that Labour is horrifically split on whether to accept the referendum result, defend EU membership to the last division, or do whatever is most embarrassing for the Tories and to hell with good governance.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2019
    Charles said:

    Interesting:

    The Welsh footballer Ched Evans has agreed an out-of-court settlement with lawyers over their handling of a rape case in which he was imprisoned. It is understood to be around £800,000.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/10/ched-evans-settles-out-of-court-over-lawyers-handling-of-case

    So entirely without merit we decided to pay him £800k
    I thought he was paying them!
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Hanbury Strategy Poll for Open Europe. Who are Hanbury Strategy? Are they members of the polling thingy and what is their record like?
    Dunno, but they're members of the British Polling Council: http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,383

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Hanbury Strategy Poll for Open Europe. Who are Hanbury Strategy? Are they members of the polling thingy and what is their record like?
    They're a new outfit. No party will come close to winning 38% in the Euros.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    edited April 2019

    Scott_P said:
    You have to wonder if his best bet at this point wouldn't be to get himself extradited to Sweden, then request asylum there...
    That’s a good call. If he goes near the USA he’s not ever going to see daylight again.

    He’s got at least a few months of British prison food to look forward to first though, before a decision gets made on what to do with him, plus appeals. No magistrate or judge is going to give him bail either.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    IanB2 said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour under no pressure now to agree anything with the government . They need to string this out and see the Tories hammered in the Council and EU elections .

    Labour should campaign on the latter with a confirmatory vote . Pro EU voters need to get out and vote in large numbers to stop the hate mongers from framing the narrative .

    Watch Peston and see how quick McDonnell is to pick up on any hint from a Tory that any deal with Labour might be undone. They are already at collecting excuses for the breakdown stage.
    Labour needs answers to two key questions before it does a deal:

    1) How can May guarantee that any deal is not ripped up by her party the moment she steps down?

    2) Why should Labour help the Tories out of a mess of their own creation?

    Hard to see how May can answer these.
    Number 1 is unanswerable full stop by anyone. Once the WA is passed it's passed. Surely it should be judged on it's merits and thats it.
    I've never understood this argument. Labour MPs passing the withdrawal agreement is a cost to them; why would they agree to stump up that cost before they knew what the compensatory benefits were (and the guarantees that those benefits would be delivered)?

    If you were buying a new phone, would you be happy if you were told that you had to pay up first, and tie yourself into a two-year contract, and that only after you had done all that could you discuss what phone you'd be getting?
    The phone you’re buying is a present you promised to your child who would regard anything other than a phone for Christmas as a complete disaster
    Although they asked for it quite a while ago, were pretty close to 50/50 on whether they wanted it in the first place, and have since found out a lot more about what phones are actually in your price range. Maybe a good idea to quickly double check they actually still want it, before signing up to a long-term contract?
    They would hate you the whole time they didn’t have the phone
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    Here we go, this is going to be fun. Great news for popcorn suppliers!
    Looks like his fears were well founded !
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    Danny565 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    It will be amusing if, despite the media promising a "bloodbath for the main parties", both Labour and the Tories end up gaining seats.

    Though I don't believe for a second Labour are going to gain as many as that.
    I do think Labour at 11/10 for most Euro seats looks like value. So many Tories are clearly not going to back their own side, and both pro-remain and pro-leave votes are split between rival parties.

    Also interesting that the surge, such as it is, will be towards pro-Remain rather than pro-Brexit parties.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Gandalf still has one celebrity fan...

    Pamela Anderson condemns Assange arrest and says Britain is 'America's b**ch' and 'needed a diversion from your idiotic Brexit bulls**t'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6911471/Pamela-Anderson-lashes-UK-Julian-Assanges-arrest-London.html
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Slightly curious from the Swedish Prosecutor; 'We do not know why he is under arrest"

    https://news.cision.com/aklagarmyndigheten/r/statement-regarding-media-information-on-arrest-in-london,c2786974
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    Gandalf still has one celebrity fan...

    Pamela Anderson condemns Assange arrest and says Britain is 'America's b**ch' and 'needed a diversion from your idiotic Brexit bulls**t'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6911471/Pamela-Anderson-lashes-UK-Julian-Assanges-arrest-London.html

    Adil Rami has done so well for himself.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:
    The change figures shown are incorrect. The March BMG survey (including TIG) had Con 37 Lab 31 LD 10 TIG 4 UKIP 6 Grn 5
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Slightly curious from the Swedish Prosecutor; 'We do not know why he is under arrest"

    https://news.cision.com/aklagarmyndigheten/r/statement-regarding-media-information-on-arrest-in-london,c2786974

    He is alleged breach of bail conditions. There, now you know more than the Office of the Swedish Prosecutor.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Hanbury Strategy Poll for Open Europe. Who are Hanbury Strategy? Are they members of the polling thingy and what is their record like?
    It's a 2018 startup that seems to have got a fair bit of industry recognition quite quickly, set up by some of Hilton's protogees
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    IanB2 said:

    Danny565 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    It will be amusing if, despite the media promising a "bloodbath for the main parties", both Labour and the Tories end up gaining seats.

    Though I don't believe for a second Labour are going to gain as many as that.
    I do think Labour at 11/10 for most Euro seats looks like value. So many Tories are clearly not going to back their own side, and both pro-remain and pro-leave votes are split between rival parties.

    Also interesting that the surge, such as it is, will be towards pro-Remain rather than pro-Brexit parties.
    Does anyone know how hard it would be to get "the Remain coalition" past the Electoral Commission? Logically LD, TIG, Green and possibly even the nationalists would be far better off trading under this name and horse-trading who sits where on each regional list.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Hanbury Strategy Poll for Open Europe. Who are Hanbury Strategy? Are they members of the polling thingy and what is their record like?
    They're a new outfit. No party will come close to winning 38% in the Euros.
    Are the changes v current? They can't be v last elections
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    IanB2 said:

    A briefing for animalwelfare groups includes these useful clarifications:

    "Whilst the media have tended to focus on the new absolute deadline of 11pm GMT on 31 October, there is another within the Decision. If the withdrawal agreement and (a revised?) political declaration are ratified (not just approved through a 'meaningful' vote under §13 of the EU Withdrawal Act 2018) - thus requiring a new Act of Parliament with all that entails - by 22 May, then the UK would leave on 31 May. Under this scenario, European elections would not have to be held in Britain. Likewise, were Britain not to pass the withdrawal agreement, or to hold elections to the European Parliament as it then should, the 31 May becomes the deadline.

    In my assessment, given that European Elections would be held six weeks today in the absence of full ratification of a deal, it is highly unlikely that these can or will be avoided."

    May does however clearly need to have "another go" at getting the deal agreed immediately after recess, even if it is doomed to fail. And she needs a way around the Speaker's ruling.
    Now that we have an extension to the Autumn she will need to pass another Queen's Speech at some point in the spring. At that point we're in a new Parliamentary session and MV4 is vote one again.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    You have to wonder if his best bet at this point wouldn't be to get himself extradited to Sweden, then request asylum there...
    That’s a good call. If he goes near the USA he’s not ever going to see daylight again.

    He’s got at least a few months of British prison food to look forward to first though, before a decision gets made on what to do with him, plus appeals. No magistrate or judge is going to give him bail either.
    Let's hope he at least gets jugged inside before getting whisked away from Northolt in a rendition class Gulfstream V.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Slightly curious from the Swedish Prosecutor; 'We do not know why he is under arrest"

    https://news.cision.com/aklagarmyndigheten/r/statement-regarding-media-information-on-arrest-in-london,c2786974

    He is alleged breach of bail conditions. There, now you know more than the Office of the Swedish Prosecutor.
    I knew that from the MET Press Release.....which the Swede's couldn't read?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683
    Terrible to see Theresa 'dismissed from the room' as the rest of the EU discusses our fate - like a naughty schoolgirl by the headmistress and head of house.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,383
    edited April 2019

    IanB2 said:

    Danny565 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    It will be amusing if, despite the media promising a "bloodbath for the main parties", both Labour and the Tories end up gaining seats.

    Though I don't believe for a second Labour are going to gain as many as that.
    I do think Labour at 11/10 for most Euro seats looks like value. So many Tories are clearly not going to back their own side, and both pro-remain and pro-leave votes are split between rival parties.

    Also interesting that the surge, such as it is, will be towards pro-Remain rather than pro-Brexit parties.
    Does anyone know how hard it would be to get "the Remain coalition" past the Electoral Commission? Logically LD, TIG, Green and possibly even the nationalists would be far better off trading under this name and horse-trading who sits where on each regional list.
    There will be too many competing egos, I imagine.

    I expect YouGov will be far closer to the outcome than Hanbury.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Slightly curious from the Swedish Prosecutor; 'We do not know why he is under arrest"

    https://news.cision.com/aklagarmyndigheten/r/statement-regarding-media-information-on-arrest-in-london,c2786974

    He is alleged breach of bail conditions. There, now you know more than the Office of the Swedish Prosecutor.
    I knew that from the MET Press Release.....which the Swede's couldn't read?
    I thought you probably did
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    In all seriousness, Batten is entitled to get the most media airtime in the build up to the Euro Elections isn't he?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,851

    Terrible to see Theresa 'dismissed from the room' as the rest of the EU discusses our fate - like a naughty schoolgirl by the headmistress and head of house.

    Presumably we should invite Tusk & Juncker to sit at our cabinet discussions on the UK/EU relationship? Of course the UK should not be present whilst the rest of EU discuss their strategy.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Interesting:

    The Welsh footballer Ched Evans has agreed an out-of-court settlement with lawyers over their handling of a rape case in which he was imprisoned. It is understood to be around £800,000.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/10/ched-evans-settles-out-of-court-over-lawyers-handling-of-case

    So entirely without merit we decided to pay him £800k
    Whereas his case was so rock solid he's settled for a fraction of what he was claiming.

    Come on Charles.
    I know

    I was just amused by the tone of the law firm’s statement.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:
    The change figures shown are incorrect. The March BMG survey (including TIG) had Con 37 Lab 31 LD 10 TIG 4 UKIP 6 Grn 5
    Horoscopes
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    You have to wonder if his best bet at this point wouldn't be to get himself extradited to Sweden, then request asylum there...
    That’s a good call. If he goes near the USA he’s not ever going to see daylight again.

    He’s got at least a few months of British prison food to look forward to first though, before a decision gets made on what to do with him, plus appeals. No magistrate or judge is going to give him bail either.
    I wonder who gets priority in extradition cases - is it first come, first served or something else.

    If it's the former the fact the US case is open and the Swedish one isn't, doesn't look good for him.
  • Diego Costa has been suspended for eight matches after insulting the referee during Atlético Madrid’s 2-0 defeat by Barcelona on Saturday.

    Costa was sent off for dissent in the 28th minute at Camp Nou by Jesús Gil Manzano and had to be escorted from the pitch by Barça’s Gerard Piqué after shouting at the official and grabbing his arm. Costa reportedly used a Spanish phrase that referred to defecating on his “prostitute mother”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/11/diego-costa-eight-match-ban-insulting-referee-atletico-madrid
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,383
    isam said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:
    The change figures shown are incorrect. The March BMG survey (including TIG) had Con 37 Lab 31 LD 10 TIG 4 UKIP 6 Grn 5
    Horoscopes
    Very little change on last month, once you take into account that adding the Brexit Party will take a chunk out of the Conservatives' vote share.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    I see al-Bashir has been overthrown in Sudan.

    Couldn't happen to a nicer man.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Danny565 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    It will be amusing if, despite the media promising a "bloodbath for the main parties", both Labour and the Tories end up gaining seats.

    Though I don't believe for a second Labour are going to gain as many as that.
    I do think Labour at 11/10 for most Euro seats looks like value. So many Tories are clearly not going to back their own side, and both pro-remain and pro-leave votes are split between rival parties.

    Also interesting that the surge, such as it is, will be towards pro-Remain rather than pro-Brexit parties.
    Does anyone know how hard it would be to get "the Remain coalition" past the Electoral Commission? Logically LD, TIG, Green and possibly even the nationalists would be far better off trading under this name and horse-trading who sits where on each regional list.
    There will be too many competing egos, I imagine.

    I expect YouGov will be far closer to the outcome than Hanbury.
    You would have to form a new political party, under the list system. The EC is promising to do what it can to fast track applications, which normally take six weeks - TIG's is still going through at the moment. Some of the steps might be quicker if the new party was being created by two established parties, as some of the checks wouldn't be needed, but on the other hand actually creating the entity in time would be extremely problematic, as the LibDems would need to get it through its internal processes and TIG doesn't even have such processes.

    Besides, the LibDem elections for candidates in every Euro seat are already underway and TIG's advert for candidates closes on Monday.

    In practice I don't think it's a runner. The best they could do is to agree not to put the candidates forward in alternate regions, giving each other a free run, but even that is difficult in the time.

    There are mixed opinions towards the LibDems within TIG, anyway, and - like the SDP in its earliest days - there are those eager to get the most benefit from being "fresh" and untarnished by deals with the existing parties.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133

    Diego Costa has been suspended for eight matches after insulting the referee during Atlético Madrid’s 2-0 defeat by Barcelona on Saturday.

    Costa was sent off for dissent in the 28th minute at Camp Nou by Jesús Gil Manzano and had to be escorted from the pitch by Barça’s Gerard Piqué after shouting at the official and grabbing his arm. Costa reportedly used a Spanish phrase that referred to defecating on his “prostitute mother”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/11/diego-costa-eight-match-ban-insulting-referee-atletico-madrid

    What a charmer.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,383
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    You have to wonder if his best bet at this point wouldn't be to get himself extradited to Sweden, then request asylum there...
    That’s a good call. If he goes near the USA he’s not ever going to see daylight again.

    He’s got at least a few months of British prison food to look forward to first though, before a decision gets made on what to do with him, plus appeals. No magistrate or judge is going to give him bail either.
    I wonder who gets priority in extradition cases - is it first come, first served or something else.

    If it's the former the fact the US case is open and the Swedish one isn't, doesn't look good for him.
    On balance, I imagine life in a US prison will be worse than life in a tiny flat.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    edited April 2019

    IanB2 said:

    Danny565 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    It will be amusing if, despite the media promising a "bloodbath for the main parties", both Labour and the Tories end up gaining seats.

    Though I don't believe for a second Labour are going to gain as many as that.
    I do think Labour at 11/10 for most Euro seats looks like value. So many Tories are clearly not going to back their own side, and both pro-remain and pro-leave votes are split between rival parties.

    Also interesting that the surge, such as it is, will be towards pro-Remain rather than pro-Brexit parties.
    Does anyone know how hard it would be to get "the Remain coalition" past the Electoral Commission? Logically LD, TIG, Green and possibly even the nationalists would be far better off trading under this name and horse-trading who sits where on each regional list.
    Getting the name past the electoral commission might be the easy bit. That’s relatively straightforward if they have a basic organisation set up and the name itself doesn’t confuse voters. Still takes time though, and do we have enough time left before nominations close?

    I think the major issues would be the constitutions of other parties that prohibit campaigning for other organisations in elections, and that they’d need to start fundraising from scratch. They’d also need to fight for media airtime during the campaign, as a new party with no prior record of elections.
  • Diego Costa has been suspended for eight matches after insulting the referee during Atlético Madrid’s 2-0 defeat by Barcelona on Saturday.

    Costa was sent off for dissent in the 28th minute at Camp Nou by Jesús Gil Manzano and had to be escorted from the pitch by Barça’s Gerard Piqué after shouting at the official and grabbing his arm. Costa reportedly used a Spanish phrase that referred to defecating on his “prostitute mother”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/11/diego-costa-eight-match-ban-insulting-referee-atletico-madrid

    What a charmer.
    Former Chelsea player.

    The whole club lacks class.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    isam said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:
    The change figures shown are incorrect. The March BMG survey (including TIG) had Con 37 Lab 31 LD 10 TIG 4 UKIP 6 Grn 5
    Horoscopes
    This one's more exciting:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1116234117748854784
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,536

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Hanbury Strategy Poll for Open Europe. Who are Hanbury Strategy? Are they members of the polling thingy and what is their record like?
    Why would Brexit's result be -3? Do they currently have 9 MEPs?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Hanbury Strategy Poll for Open Europe. Who are Hanbury Strategy? Are they members of the polling thingy and what is their record like?
    Why would Brexit's result be -3? Do they currently have 9 MEPs?
    Yes. So the change is v current and not v 2014
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Pulpstar said:

    MTimT said:

    Charles said:

    Interesting:

    The Welsh footballer Ched Evans has agreed an out-of-court settlement with lawyers over their handling of a rape case in which he was imprisoned. It is understood to be around £800,000.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/10/ched-evans-settles-out-of-court-over-lawyers-handling-of-case

    So entirely without merit we decided to pay him £800k
    Cost of litigation in actual cash, opportunity cost, and diverted strategic attention, vs cost of settlement. Might be 800k is cheap.
    Evans would have earnt ~ £2.5 million whilst he was in prison ! £800k settlement (From his lawyers, not the public purse) is nothing I'm going to worry about.
    £800K tax-free, though.
    Hmm... you mean if I sue one of my own companies and they settle I get a fax free payment.... hmm...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Hanbury Strategy Poll for Open Europe. Who are Hanbury Strategy? Are they members of the polling thingy and what is their record like?
    Why would Brexit's result be -3? Do they currently have 9 MEPs?
    Yes. So the change is v current and not v 2014
    These elections are going to get horribly confusing, as the current groupings of MEPs (and council seats up for grabs in May) look quite different now to how they looked when last elected.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    Peter Bone calls for Boris to take over as PM.

    Lol.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MTimT said:

    Charles said:

    Interesting:

    The Welsh footballer Ched Evans has agreed an out-of-court settlement with lawyers over their handling of a rape case in which he was imprisoned. It is understood to be around £800,000.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/10/ched-evans-settles-out-of-court-over-lawyers-handling-of-case

    So entirely without merit we decided to pay him £800k
    Cost of litigation in actual cash, opportunity cost, and diverted strategic attention, vs cost of settlement. Might be 800k is cheap.
    Evans would have earnt ~ £2.5 million whilst he was in prison ! £800k settlement (From his lawyers, not the public purse) is nothing I'm going to worry about.
    £800K tax-free, though.
    Hmm... you mean if I sue one of my own companies and they settle I get a fax free payment.... hmm...
    Libelling your children and then settling with them is a way round IHT.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    Hanbury Strategy Poll for Open Europe. Who are Hanbury Strategy? Are they members of the polling thingy and what is their record like?
    Why would Brexit's result be -3? Do they currently have 9 MEPs?
    UKIP has only 7 of the large batch of MEPs elected last time left.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    Gandalf still has one celebrity fan...

    Pamela Anderson condemns Assange arrest and says Britain is 'America's b**ch' and 'needed a diversion from your idiotic Brexit bulls**t'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6911471/Pamela-Anderson-lashes-UK-Julian-Assanges-arrest-London.html

    Pneumatic Pammy has become quite the radical in her latter years.

  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    edited April 2019
    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MTimT said:

    Charles said:

    Interesting:

    The Welsh footballer Ched Evans has agreed an out-of-court settlement with lawyers over their handling of a rape case in which he was imprisoned. It is understood to be around £800,000.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/10/ched-evans-settles-out-of-court-over-lawyers-handling-of-case

    So entirely without merit we decided to pay him £800k
    Cost of litigation in actual cash, opportunity cost, and diverted strategic attention, vs cost of settlement. Might be 800k is cheap.
    Evans would have earnt ~ £2.5 million whilst he was in prison ! £800k settlement (From his lawyers, not the public purse) is nothing I'm going to worry about.
    £800K tax-free, though.
    Hmm... you mean if I sue one of my own companies and they settle I get a fax free payment.... hmm...
    They aren't necessarily tax free. If they are compensation for loss of earnings they will be taxed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MTimT said:

    Charles said:

    Interesting:

    The Welsh footballer Ched Evans has agreed an out-of-court settlement with lawyers over their handling of a rape case in which he was imprisoned. It is understood to be around £800,000.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/10/ched-evans-settles-out-of-court-over-lawyers-handling-of-case

    So entirely without merit we decided to pay him £800k
    Cost of litigation in actual cash, opportunity cost, and diverted strategic attention, vs cost of settlement. Might be 800k is cheap.
    Evans would have earnt ~ £2.5 million whilst he was in prison ! £800k settlement (From his lawyers, not the public purse) is nothing I'm going to worry about.
    £800K tax-free, though.
    Hmm... you mean if I sue one of my own companies and they settle I get a fax free payment.... hmm...
    Probably not a co-incidence that £800k was his annual salary before he was fired after being found guilty.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    This from the man who supported Danish Imams who wanted to suppress cartoons which scrutinised Islam......

    Corbyn's attachment to free speech is about as great as my attachment to marathon running.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    And yet we are constantly told on PB that we are supposed to fear this clown?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited April 2019
    _Anazina_ said:

    And yet we are constantly told on PB that we are supposed to fear this clown?
    It is also why banning him from YouTube etc is counter-productive.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    You have to wonder if his best bet at this point wouldn't be to get himself extradited to Sweden, then request asylum there...
    That’s a good call. If he goes near the USA he’s not ever going to see daylight again.

    He’s got at least a few months of British prison food to look forward to first though, before a decision gets made on what to do with him, plus appeals. No magistrate or judge is going to give him bail either.
    I thought extradition requests were dealt with in the order received. I assume the US might have been tipped off in advance
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,383
    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Danny565 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    It will be amusing if, despite the media promising a "bloodbath for the main parties", both Labour and the Tories end up gaining seats.

    Though I don't believe for a second Labour are going to gain as many as that.
    I do think Labour at 11/10 for most Euro seats looks like value. So many Tories are clearly not going to back their own side, and both pro-remain and pro-leave votes are split between rival parties.

    Also interesting that the surge, such as it is, will be towards pro-Remain rather than pro-Brexit parties.
    Does anyone know how hard it would be to get "the Remain coalition" past the Electoral Commission? Logically LD, TIG, Green and possibly even the nationalists would be far better off trading under this name and horse-trading who sits where on each regional list.
    There will be too many competing egos, I imagine.

    I expect YouGov will be far closer to the outcome than Hanbury.
    You would have to form a new political party, under the list system. The EC is promising to do what it can to fast track applications, which normally take six weeks - TIG's is still going through at the moment. Some of the steps might be quicker if the new party was being created by two established parties, as some of the checks wouldn't be needed, but on the other hand actually creating the entity in time would be extremely problematic, as the LibDems would need to get it through its internal processes and TIG doesn't even have such processes.

    Besides, the LibDem elections for candidates in every Euro seat are already underway and TIG's advert for candidates closes on Monday.

    In practice I don't think it's a runner. The best they could do is to agree not to put the candidates forward in alternate regions, giving each other a free run, but even that is difficult in the time.

    There are mixed opinions towards the LibDems within TIG, anyway, and - like the SDP in its earliest days - there are those eager to get the most benefit from being "fresh" and untarnished by deals with the existing parties.
    In any event, I think there's no prospect of getting the SNP, Plaid, or the Greens on board.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MTimT said:

    Charles said:

    Interesting:

    The Welsh footballer Ched Evans has agreed an out-of-court settlement with lawyers over their handling of a rape case in which he was imprisoned. It is understood to be around £800,000.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/10/ched-evans-settles-out-of-court-over-lawyers-handling-of-case

    So entirely without merit we decided to pay him £800k
    Cost of litigation in actual cash, opportunity cost, and diverted strategic attention, vs cost of settlement. Might be 800k is cheap.
    Evans would have earnt ~ £2.5 million whilst he was in prison ! £800k settlement (From his lawyers, not the public purse) is nothing I'm going to worry about.
    £800K tax-free, though.
    Hmm... you mean if I sue one of my own companies and they settle I get a fax free payment.... hmm...
    What difference does it make the payment is comfimed by fax or not?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Would Change UK sit as part of ALDE?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    You have to wonder if his best bet at this point wouldn't be to get himself extradited to Sweden, then request asylum there...
    That’s a good call. If he goes near the USA he’s not ever going to see daylight again.

    He’s got at least a few months of British prison food to look forward to first though, before a decision gets made on what to do with him, plus appeals. No magistrate or judge is going to give him bail either.
    I thought extradition requests were dealt with in the order received. I assume the US might have been tipped off in advance
    I think that’s right, the question will be is the initial extradition warrant from Sweden still valid?

    Some poor magistrates (or do they still have a District Judge in London) are going to have a busy day or two trying to work their way through this mess - with the world’s press camped outside.

    The sensible thing is probably for him to appear tomorrow charged with being unlawfully at large, sentence him to six months or a year for that offence which buys time to sort out the bigger issues around the case.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    IanB2 said:

    Danny565 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    It will be amusing if, despite the media promising a "bloodbath for the main parties", both Labour and the Tories end up gaining seats.

    Though I don't believe for a second Labour are going to gain as many as that.
    I do think Labour at 11/10 for most Euro seats looks like value. So many Tories are clearly not going to back their own side, and both pro-remain and pro-leave votes are split between rival parties.

    Also interesting that the surge, such as it is, will be towards pro-Remain rather than pro-Brexit parties.
    Does anyone know how hard it would be to get "the Remain coalition" past the Electoral Commission? Logically LD, TIG, Green and possibly even the nationalists would be far better off trading under this name and horse-trading who sits where on each regional list.
    I suspect you wouldn’t get full transference though. Even though someone might agree with Remain I’m sure there’s a percentage of Lib Dem voters, for example, who look for Lib Dem on the ballot paper and not finding it wouldn’t automatically vote for this unknown group
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    You have to wonder if his best bet at this point wouldn't be to get himself extradited to Sweden, then request asylum there...
    That’s a good call. If he goes near the USA he’s not ever going to see daylight again.

    He’s got at least a few months of British prison food to look forward to first though, before a decision gets made on what to do with him, plus appeals. No magistrate or judge is going to give him bail either.
    I thought extradition requests were dealt with in the order received. I assume the US might have been tipped off in advance
    I think that’s right, the question will be is the initial extradition warrant from Sweden still valid?

    Some poor magistrates (or do they still have a District Judge in London) are going to have a busy day or two trying to work their way through this mess - with the world’s press camped outside.

    The sensible thing is probably for him to appear tomorrow charged with being unlawfully at large, sentence him to six months or a year for that offence which buys time to sort out the bigger issues around the case.
    Equally

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1116315677923655681
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Assange probably hoping his rape charge is reopened !

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1116315677923655681
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Nigelb said:

    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour under no pressure now to agree anything with the government . They need to string this out and see the Tories hammered in the Council and EU elections .

    Labour should campaign on the latter with a confirmatory vote . Pro EU voters need to get out and vote in large numbers to stop the hate mongers from framing the narrative .

    The latest Yougov today for the European elections has both the Tories and Labour collapsing to just 18% each with the Brexit Party just behind on 17% and CUK up to 10%
    That was a hypothetical poll with a purely second vote party aswell . If Labour have a second vote on any deal they’ll top the EU elections .

    The Leave vote is split , indeed it’s likely the UK will return less anti EU parties than last time but the media keep pushing the opposite .

    Labour should not do any deal with the Tories unless it includes a second vote . They have nothing to gain and will be hammered if they facilitate a Tory Brexit .
    I can assure you that the vote share for parties explicitly advocating leaving the EU will be higher than at any previous EU election.
    You might well be right, but turnout of those advocating revoke might be equally high.

    https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1116289959705497600
    I bet she wont say that if remain parties come out on top.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,045
    There are 4 very different local by-elections today. In addition to the one in Edinburgh already discussed (SNP gain from Labour) there is a Lib Dem defence in Burnley (although retiring councillor was sitting as an Independent), an Ind defence in Merthyr Tydfil, and a Labour defence in Lambeth. The last is interesting in that it is in Chuka's constituency although there is no Chuk candidate.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited April 2019
    Assange -- never mind justice, what about politics? Has this been focus-grouped? Is it another reason to vote for or against Conservatives (or Corbyn based on the 2010 tweet TSE found)? Will it boost our Foreign or Home Secretary in the forthcoming leadership vote?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Slightly curious from the Swedish Prosecutor; 'We do not know why he is under arrest"

    https://news.cision.com/aklagarmyndigheten/r/statement-regarding-media-information-on-arrest-in-london,c2786974

    He is alleged breach of bail conditions. There, now you know more than the Office of the Swedish Prosecutor.
    I knew that from the MET Press Release.....which the Swede's couldn't read?
    I imagine it’s a dodgy translation and she meant there has been no official communication from the U.K. on why he is under arrest
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Terrible to see Theresa 'dismissed from the room' as the rest of the EU discusses our fate - like a naughty schoolgirl by the headmistress and head of house.

    No. You always have breakout rooms when you have a negotiation.

    Did you expect her to sit in the room and listen to the other side thrash out their position?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour under no pressure now to agree anything with the government . They need to string this out and see the Tories hammered in the Council and EU elections .

    Labour should campaign on the latter with a confirmatory vote . Pro EU voters need to get out and vote in large numbers to stop the hate mongers from framing the narrative .

    The latest Yougov today for the European elections has both the Tories and Labour collapsing to just 18% each with the Brexit Party just behind on 17% and CUK up to 10%
    That was a hypothetical poll with a purely second vote party aswell . If Labour have a second vote on any deal they’ll top the EU elections .

    The Leave vote is split , indeed it’s likely the UK will return less anti EU parties than last time but the media keep pushing the opposite .

    Labour should not do any deal with the Tories unless it includes a second vote . They have nothing to gain and will be hammered if they facilitate a Tory Brexit .
    I can assure you that the vote share for parties explicitly advocating leaving the EU will be higher than at any previous EU election.
    You might well be right, but turnout of those advocating revoke might be equally high.

    https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1116289959705497600
    I bet she wont say that if remain parties come out on top.
    Everyone knows the people have the final say, till they get the wrong answer.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    He thinks plain clothes police are the same thing as secret police?
    Obviously not as bright as he's supposed to be.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Danny565 said:

    Can anyone remember why Ecuador took in Assange in the first place? For that matter, does Ecuador remember why Ecuador took in Assange in the first place?

    Safe to say the president who originially took Assange in has a somewhat different view to his successor...

    https://twitter.com/MashiRafael/status/1116289091061075968?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1116289091061075968&ref_url=https://www.theguardian.com/media/live/2019/apr/11/wikileaks-founder-julian-assange-arrested-at-the-ecuadorean-embassy-live-updates
    I think in the grand scheme of things allowing a douchbag to be arrested, rightly or not, will be pretty easy to forget.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sean_F said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    You have to wonder if his best bet at this point wouldn't be to get himself extradited to Sweden, then request asylum there...
    That’s a good call. If he goes near the USA he’s not ever going to see daylight again.

    He’s got at least a few months of British prison food to look forward to first though, before a decision gets made on what to do with him, plus appeals. No magistrate or judge is going to give him bail either.
    I wonder who gets priority in extradition cases - is it first come, first served or something else.

    If it's the former the fact the US case is open and the Swedish one isn't, doesn't look good for him.
    On balance, I imagine life in a US prison will be worse than life in a tiny flat.
    He’ll get to go outside though

    🤣
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    IanB2 said:

    Peter Bone calls for Boris to take over as PM.

    Lol.

    That's Whittingdale, Ian Dale and Peter Bone coming out for Boris.

    But will Amber give him the keys to drive home (to Downing St.) ? :D
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,261
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour under no pressure now to agree anything with the government . They need to string this out and see the Tories hammered in the Council and EU elections .

    Labour should campaign on the latter with a confirmatory vote . Pro EU voters need to get out and vote in large numbers to stop the hate mongers from framing the narrative .

    The latest Yougov today for the European elections has both the Tories and Labour collapsing to just 18% each with the Brexit Party just behind on 17% and CUK up to 10%
    That was a hypothetical poll with a purely second vote party aswell . If Labour have a second vote on any deal they’ll top the EU elections .

    The Leave vote is split , indeed it’s likely the UK will return less anti EU parties than last time but the media keep pushing the opposite .

    Labour should not do any deal with the Tories unless it includes a second vote . They have nothing to gain and will be hammered if they facilitate a Tory Brexit .
    I can assure you that the vote share for parties explicitly advocating leaving the EU will be higher than at any previous EU election.
    You might well be right, but turnout of those advocating revoke might be equally high.

    https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1116289959705497600
    I bet she wont say that if remain parties come out on top.
    It would be useful if candidates stood under pro- and anti-Brexit labels as both main parties are split on the matter. But I presume our illiberal election law would prevent that
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    kle4 said:

    He thinks plain clothes police are the same thing as secret police?
    Obviously not as bright as he's supposed to be.
    Has he noticed that "a reporter" might be a misleading description of Cassandra Fairbanks #SpyOnTheSpies #ProtectAssange @DefendAssange
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    May making her statement in the Commons, Assange then EU
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MTimT said:

    Charles said:

    Interesting:

    The Welsh footballer Ched Evans has agreed an out-of-court settlement with lawyers over their handling of a rape case in which he was imprisoned. It is understood to be around £800,000.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/10/ched-evans-settles-out-of-court-over-lawyers-handling-of-case

    So entirely without merit we decided to pay him £800k
    Cost of litigation in actual cash, opportunity cost, and diverted strategic attention, vs cost of settlement. Might be 800k is cheap.
    Evans would have earnt ~ £2.5 million whilst he was in prison ! £800k settlement (From his lawyers, not the public purse) is nothing I'm going to worry about.
    £800K tax-free, though.
    Hmm... you mean if I sue one of my own companies and they settle I get a fax free payment.... hmm...
    Libelling your children and then settling with them is a way round IHT.
    But could damage the @charles brand

    The daily mail writes too much about us anyway
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Danny565 said:

    IanB2 said:

    UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

    European Parliament

    LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
    CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
    BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
    LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
    UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
    SNP-G/EFA: 2
    Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
    DUP-NI: 1
    SF-LEFT: 1
    UUP-ECR: 1

    It will be amusing if, despite the media promising a "bloodbath for the main parties", both Labour and the Tories end up gaining seats.

    Though I don't believe for a second Labour are going to gain as many as that.
    It does seem a lot. I'd assume they'll come top but not as high as that. LDs look on the low end but that is their way. I just don't see how the Tories even stand still.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Charles said:

    Slightly curious from the Swedish Prosecutor; 'We do not know why he is under arrest"

    https://news.cision.com/aklagarmyndigheten/r/statement-regarding-media-information-on-arrest-in-london,c2786974

    He is alleged breach of bail conditions. There, now you know more than the Office of the Swedish Prosecutor.
    I knew that from the MET Press Release.....which the Swede's couldn't read?
    I imagine it’s a dodgy translation and she meant there has been no official communication from the U.K. on why he is under arrest
    I thought the Swedish prosecution had been dropped, so they're basically saying it has nothing to do with them?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2019

    isam said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:
    The change figures shown are incorrect. The March BMG survey (including TIG) had Con 37 Lab 31 LD 10 TIG 4 UKIP 6 Grn 5
    Horoscopes
    This one's more exciting:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1116234117748854784
    You might as well just make up a load of numbers a discuss what’d happen if that were the result.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    "That UK will hold EU elections in May is up 3% to 95% but that is very little movement."

    Equivalenty That the UK will not hold EU elections has dropped by more than a third in just a few hours from 8% to 5%.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    IanB2 said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour under no pressure now to agree anything with the government . They need to string this out and see the Tories hammered in the Council and EU elections .

    Labour should campaign on the latter with a confirmatory vote . Pro EU voters need to get out and vote in large numbers to stop the hate mongers from framing the narrative .

    Watch Peston and see how quick McDonnell is to pick up on any hint from a Tory that any deal with Labour might be undone. They are already at collecting excuses for the breakdown stage.
    Labour needs answers to two key questions before it does a deal:

    1) How can May guarantee that any deal is not ripped up by her party the moment she steps down?

    2) Why should Labour help the Tories out of a mess of their own creation?

    Hard to see how May can answer these.
    Number 1 is unanswerable full stop by anyone. Once the WA is passed it's passed. Surely it should be judged on it's merits and thats it.
    I've never understood this argument. Labour MPs passing the withdrawal agreement is a cost to them; why would they agree to stump up that cost before they knew what the compensatory benefits were (and the guarantees that those benefits would be delivered)?

    If you were buying a new phone, would you be happy if you were told that you had to pay up first, and tie yourself into a two-year contract, and that only after you had done all that could you discuss what phone you'd be getting?
    The phone you’re buying is a present you promised to your child who would regard anything other than a phone for Christmas as a complete disaster
    Although they asked for it quite a while ago, were pretty close to 50/50 on whether they wanted it in the first place, and have since found out a lot more about what phones are actually in your price range. Maybe a good idea to quickly double check they actually still want it, before signing up to a long-term contract?
    They would hate you the whole time they didn’t have the phone
    And then they grow up.

    The end.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Slightly curious from the Swedish Prosecutor; 'We do not know why he is under arrest"

    https://news.cision.com/aklagarmyndigheten/r/statement-regarding-media-information-on-arrest-in-london,c2786974

    Can they not read the news? He breached his bail, it's not hard to get to grips with.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    _Anazina_ said:

    And yet we are constantly told on PB that we are supposed to fear this clown?
    Are we?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    eristdoof said:

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MTimT said:

    Charles said:

    Interesting:

    The Welsh footballer Ched Evans has agreed an out-of-court settlement with lawyers over their handling of a rape case in which he was imprisoned. It is understood to be around £800,000.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/10/ched-evans-settles-out-of-court-over-lawyers-handling-of-case

    So entirely without merit we decided to pay him £800k
    Cost of litigation in actual cash, opportunity cost, and diverted strategic attention, vs cost of settlement. Might be 800k is cheap.
    Evans would have earnt ~ £2.5 million whilst he was in prison ! £800k settlement (From his lawyers, not the public purse) is nothing I'm going to worry about.
    £800K tax-free, though.
    Hmm... you mean if I sue one of my own companies and they settle I get a fax free payment.... hmm...
    What difference does it make the payment is comfimed by fax or not?
    Typo - tax free
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Charles said:

    Terrible to see Theresa 'dismissed from the room' as the rest of the EU discusses our fate - like a naughty schoolgirl by the headmistress and head of house.

    No. You always have breakout rooms when you have a negotiation.

    Did you expect her to sit in the room and listen to the other side thrash out their position?
    Humiliation Charles is in the eyes of commentators and historians. So far the commentators believe the episode was humiliating. We shall wait to see how the historians treat it.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    _Anazina_ said:

    And yet we are constantly told on PB that we are supposed to fear this clown?
    You would think differently if he turned up with a mob on your doorstep for Facebook TV.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour under no pressure now to agree anything with the government . They need to string this out and see the Tories hammered in the Council and EU elections .

    Labour should campaign on the latter with a confirmatory vote . Pro EU voters need to get out and vote in large numbers to stop the hate mongers from framing the narrative .

    The latest Yougov today for the European elections has both the Tories and Labour collapsing to just 18% each with the Brexit Party just behind on 17% and CUK up to 10%
    That was a hypothetical poll with a purely second vote party aswell . If Labour have a second vote on any deal they’ll top the EU elections .

    The Leave vote is split , indeed it’s likely the UK will return less anti EU parties than last time but the media keep pushing the opposite .

    Labour should not do any deal with the Tories unless it includes a second vote . They have nothing to gain and will be hammered if they facilitate a Tory Brexit .
    I can assure you that the vote share for parties explicitly advocating leaving the EU will be higher than at any previous EU election.
    You might well be right, but turnout of those advocating revoke might be equally high.

    https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1116289959705497600
    I bet she wont say that if remain parties come out on top.
    I think to farage is the verb for that sort of thing.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited April 2019
    Danny565 said:

    I think Ecuador were about to throw him out on the streets (looking at him I wonder whether he had turned their embassy in a foul smelling pigsty) so I guess they thought the whole thing would be more "dignified" if they invited the police in to take him out...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    PM keen to stress the option to leave in May remains, and claiming victory on avoiding hard conditions to the extension.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    You have to wonder if his best bet at this point wouldn't be to get himself extradited to Sweden, then request asylum there...
    That’s a good call. If he goes near the USA he’s not ever going to see daylight again.

    He’s got at least a few months of British prison food to look forward to first though, before a decision gets made on what to do with him, plus appeals. No magistrate or judge is going to give him bail either.
    I thought extradition requests were dealt with in the order received. I assume the US might have been tipped off in advance
    I think that’s right, the question will be is the initial extradition warrant from Sweden still valid?

    Some poor magistrates (or do they still have a District Judge in London) are going to have a busy day or two trying to work their way through this mess - with the world’s press camped outside.

    The sensible thing is probably for him to appear tomorrow charged with being unlawfully at large, sentence him to six months or a year for that offence which buys time to sort out the bigger issues around the case.
    I’d imagine they would kick the extradition request upstairs quickly. I think there is still a court hearing even under the US-UK treaty
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Terrible to see Theresa 'dismissed from the room' as the rest of the EU discusses our fate - like a naughty schoolgirl by the headmistress and head of house.

    People really are histrionic about this not in the room stuff. Of course she wasnt. Our failure to leave and needing an extension humiliating, the rest of the EU discussing our request without may present isn't.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    IanB2 said:

    I do think Labour at 11/10 for most Euro seats looks like value. So many Tories are clearly not going to back their own side, and both pro-remain and pro-leave votes are split between rival parties.

    I think that is a superb bet. Even better, Betfair Sports/Paddy Power offer 6/4.

    Personally I'd put it at about 1/2.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    IanB2 said:

    nico67 said:

    Labour under no pressure now to agree anything with the government . They need to string this out and see the Tories hammered in the Council and EU elections .

    Labour should campaign on the latter with a confirmatory vote . Pro EU voters need to get out and vote in large numbers to stop the hate mongers from framing the narrative .

    Watch Peston and see how quick McDonnell is to pick up on any hint from a Tory that any deal with Labour might be undone. They are already at collecting excuses for the breakdown stage.
    Labour needs answers to two key questions before it does a deal:

    1) How can May guarantee that any deal is not ripped up by her party the moment she steps down?

    2) Why should Labour help the Tories out of a mess of their own creation?

    Hard to see how May can answer these.
    Number 1 is unanswerable full stop by anyone. Once the WA is passed it's passed. Surely it should be judged on it's merits and thats it.
    I've never understood this argument. Labour MPs passing the withdrawal agreement is a cost to them; why would they agree to stump up that cost before they knew what the compensatory benefits were (and the guarantees that those benefits would be delivered)?

    If you were buying a new phone, would you be happy if you were told that you had to pay up first, and tie yourself into a two-year contract, and that only after you had done all that could you discuss what phone you'd be getting?
    The phone you’re buying is a present you promised to your child who would regard anything other than a phone for Christmas as a complete disaster
    Although they asked for it quite a while ago, were pretty close to 50/50 on whether they wanted it in the first place, and have since found out a lot more about what phones are actually in your price range. Maybe a good idea to quickly double check they actually still want it, before signing up to a long-term contract?
    They would hate you the whole time they didn’t have the phone
    And then they grow up.

    The end.
    Nope
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Cyclefree said:

    This from the man who supported Danish Imams who wanted to suppress cartoons which scrutinised Islam......

    Corbyn's attachment to free speech is about as great as my attachment to marathon running.
    Fleeting, inconsistent or non existent?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    Assange probably hoping his rape charge is reopened !

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1116315677923655681

    Was he ever charged though?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,162
    edited April 2019
    May confirms in Commons she will put forward the Withdrawal Agreement again and if no agreement with Labour on the future relationship a small number of options will be put forward to the House by the Government in a further series of indicative votes.

    May also confirmed the EU Council agreed yesterday to amend the Political Declaration but not the Withdrawal Agreement if necessary
This discussion has been closed.