politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The overnight developments in Brussels barely move the Brexit

UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

European Parliament

LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
SNP-G/EFA: 2
Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
DUP-NI: 1
SF-LEFT: 1
UUP-ECR: 1

IanB2 said:

UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

European Parliament

LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
SNP-G/EFA: 2
Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
DUP-NI: 1
SF-LEFT: 1
UUP-ECR: 1

Hanbury Strategy Poll for Open Europe. Who are Hanbury Strategy? Are they members of the polling thingy and what is their record like?

Charles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Interesting:

The Welsh footballer Ched Evans has agreed an out-of-court settlement with lawyers over their handling of a rape case in which he was imprisoned. It is understood to be around £800,000.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/10/ched-evans-settles-out-of-court-over-lawyers-handling-of-case

So entirely without merit we decided to pay him £800k

I thought he was paying them!

FrancisUrquhart said:

IanB2 said:

UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

European Parliament

LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
SNP-G/EFA: 2
Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
DUP-NI: 1
SF-LEFT: 1
UUP-ECR: 1

Hanbury Strategy Poll for Open Europe. Who are Hanbury Strategy? Are they members of the polling thingy and what is their record like?

They're a new outfit. No party will come close to winning 38% in the Euros.

Stereotomy said:

isam said:

Danny565 said:

Slackbladder said:

anothernick said:

IanB2 said:

nico67 said:

Labour under no pressure now to agree anything with the government . They need to string this out and see the Tories hammered in the Council and EU elections .

Labour should campaign on the latter with a confirmatory vote . Pro EU voters need to get out and vote in large numbers to stop the hate mongers from framing the narrative .

Watch Peston and see how quick McDonnell is to pick up on any hint from a Tory that any deal with Labour might be undone. They are already at collecting excuses for the breakdown stage.

Labour needs answers to two key questions before it does a deal:

1) How can May guarantee that any deal is not ripped up by her party the moment she steps down?

2) Why should Labour help the Tories out of a mess of their own creation?

Hard to see how May can answer these.

Number 1 is unanswerable full stop by anyone. Once the WA is passed it's passed. Surely it should be judged on it's merits and thats it.

I've never understood this argument. Labour MPs passing the withdrawal agreement is a cost to them; why would they agree to stump up that cost before they knew what the compensatory benefits were (and the guarantees that those benefits would be delivered)?

If you were buying a new phone, would you be happy if you were told that you had to pay up first, and tie yourself into a two-year contract, and that only after you had done all that could you discuss what phone you'd be getting?

The phone you’re buying is a present you promised to your child who would regard anything other than a phone for Christmas as a complete disaster

Although they asked for it quite a while ago, were pretty close to 50/50 on whether they wanted it in the first place, and have since found out a lot more about what phones are actually in your price range. Maybe a good idea to quickly double check they actually still want it, before signing up to a long-term contract?

They would hate you the whole time they didn’t have the phone

Danny565 said:

IanB2 said:

UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

European Parliament

LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
SNP-G/EFA: 2
Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
DUP-NI: 1
SF-LEFT: 1
UUP-ECR: 1

It will be amusing if, despite the media promising a "bloodbath for the main parties", both Labour and the Tories end up gaining seats.

Though I don't believe for a second Labour are going to gain as many as that.

I do think Labour at 11/10 for most Euro seats looks like value. So many Tories are clearly not going to back their own side, and both pro-remain and pro-leave votes are split between rival parties.

Also interesting that the surge, such as it is, will be towards pro-Remain rather than pro-Brexit parties.

Slightly curious from the Swedish Prosecutor; 'We do not know why he is under arrest"

https://news.cision.com/aklagarmyndigheten/r/statement-regarding-media-information-on-arrest-in-london,c2786974

FrancisUrquhart said:

IanB2 said:

UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

European Parliament

LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
SNP-G/EFA: 2
Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
DUP-NI: 1
SF-LEFT: 1
UUP-ECR: 1

Hanbury Strategy Poll for Open Europe. Who are Hanbury Strategy? Are they members of the polling thingy and what is their record like?

It's a 2018 startup that seems to have got a fair bit of industry recognition quite quickly, set up by some of Hilton's protogees

IanB2 said:

Danny565 said:

IanB2 said:

UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

European Parliament

LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
SNP-G/EFA: 2
Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
DUP-NI: 1
SF-LEFT: 1
UUP-ECR: 1

It will be amusing if, despite the media promising a "bloodbath for the main parties", both Labour and the Tories end up gaining seats.

Though I don't believe for a second Labour are going to gain as many as that.

I do think Labour at 11/10 for most Euro seats looks like value. So many Tories are clearly not going to back their own side, and both pro-remain and pro-leave votes are split between rival parties.

Also interesting that the surge, such as it is, will be towards pro-Remain rather than pro-Brexit parties.

Does anyone know how hard it would be to get "the Remain coalition" past the Electoral Commission? Logically LD, TIG, Green and possibly even the nationalists would be far better off trading under this name and horse-trading who sits where on each regional list.

IanB2 said:

NickPalmer said:

A briefing for animalwelfare groups includes these useful clarifications:

"Whilst the media have tended to focus on the new absolute deadline of 11pm GMT on 31 October, there is another within the Decision. If the withdrawal agreement and (a revised?) political declaration are ratified (not just approved through a 'meaningful' vote under §13 of the EU Withdrawal Act 2018) - thus requiring a new Act of Parliament with all that entails - by 22 May, then the UK would leave on 31 May. Under this scenario, European elections would not have to be held in Britain. Likewise, were Britain not to pass the withdrawal agreement, or to hold elections to the European Parliament as it then should, the 31 May becomes the deadline.

In my assessment, given that European Elections would be held six weeks today in the absence of full ratification of a deal, it is highly unlikely that these can or will be avoided."

May does however clearly need to have "another go" at getting the deal agreed immediately after recess, even if it is doomed to fail. And she needs a way around the Speaker's ruling.

Now that we have an extension to the Autumn she will need to pass another Queen's Speech at some point in the spring. At that point we're in a new Parliamentary session and MV4 is vote one again.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Slightly curious from the Swedish Prosecutor; 'We do not know why he is under arrest"

https://news.cision.com/aklagarmyndigheten/r/statement-regarding-media-information-on-arrest-in-london,c2786974

He is alleged breach of bail conditions. There, now you know more than the Office of the Swedish Prosecutor.

I knew that from the MET Press Release.....which the Swede's couldn't read?

Tissue_Price said:

IanB2 said:

Danny565 said:

IanB2 said:

UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

European Parliament

LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
SNP-G/EFA: 2
Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
DUP-NI: 1
SF-LEFT: 1
UUP-ECR: 1

It will be amusing if, despite the media promising a "bloodbath for the main parties", both Labour and the Tories end up gaining seats.

Though I don't believe for a second Labour are going to gain as many as that.

I do think Labour at 11/10 for most Euro seats looks like value. So many Tories are clearly not going to back their own side, and both pro-remain and pro-leave votes are split between rival parties.

Also interesting that the surge, such as it is, will be towards pro-Remain rather than pro-Brexit parties.

Does anyone know how hard it would be to get "the Remain coalition" past the Electoral Commission? Logically LD, TIG, Green and possibly even the nationalists would be far better off trading under this name and horse-trading who sits where on each regional list.

There will be too many competing egos, I imagine.

I expect YouGov will be far closer to the outcome than Hanbury.

TheScreamingEagles said:

From 2010

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/12307023966240768?s=21

https://twitter.com/redgeorgieone/status/1116309841822330880?s=21

In all seriousness, Batten is entitled to get the most media airtime in the build up to the Euro Elections isn't he?

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Charles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Interesting:

The Welsh footballer Ched Evans has agreed an out-of-court settlement with lawyers over their handling of a rape case in which he was imprisoned. It is understood to be around £800,000.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/10/ched-evans-settles-out-of-court-over-lawyers-handling-of-case

So entirely without merit we decided to pay him £800k

Whereas his case was so rock solid he's settled for a fraction of what he was claiming.

Come on Charles.

I know

I was just amused by the tone of the law firm’s statement.

Sandpit said:

edmundintokyo said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/KenDilanianNBC/status/1116302707340587008

You have to wonder if his best bet at this point wouldn't be to get himself extradited to Sweden, then request asylum there...

That’s a good call. If he goes near the USA he’s not ever going to see daylight again.

He’s got at least a few months of British prison food to look forward to first though, before a decision gets made on what to do with him, plus appeals. No magistrate or judge is going to give him bail either.

I wonder who gets priority in extradition cases - is it first come, first served or something else.

If it's the former the fact the US case is open and the Swedish one isn't, doesn't look good for him.

isam said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1116208675306209280?s=20

The change figures shown are incorrect. The March BMG survey (including TIG) had Con 37 Lab 31 LD 10 TIG 4 UKIP 6 Grn 5

Horoscopes

Very little change on last month, once you take into account that adding the Brexit Party will take a chunk out of the Conservatives' vote share.

Sean_F said:

Tissue_Price said:

IanB2 said:

Danny565 said:

IanB2 said:

UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

European Parliament

LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
SNP-G/EFA: 2
Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
DUP-NI: 1
SF-LEFT: 1
UUP-ECR: 1

It will be amusing if, despite the media promising a "bloodbath for the main parties", both Labour and the Tories end up gaining seats.

Though I don't believe for a second Labour are going to gain as many as that.

I do think Labour at 11/10 for most Euro seats looks like value. So many Tories are clearly not going to back their own side, and both pro-remain and pro-leave votes are split between rival parties.

Also interesting that the surge, such as it is, will be towards pro-Remain rather than pro-Brexit parties.

Does anyone know how hard it would be to get "the Remain coalition" past the Electoral Commission? Logically LD, TIG, Green and possibly even the nationalists would be far better off trading under this name and horse-trading who sits where on each regional list.

There will be too many competing egos, I imagine.

I expect YouGov will be far closer to the outcome than Hanbury.

You would have to form a new political party, under the list system. The EC is promising to do what it can to fast track applications, which normally take six weeks - TIG's is still going through at the moment. Some of the steps might be quicker if the new party was being created by two established parties, as some of the checks wouldn't be needed, but on the other hand actually creating the entity in time would be extremely problematic, as the LibDems would need to get it through its internal processes and TIG doesn't even have such processes.

Besides, the LibDem elections for candidates in every Euro seat are already underway and TIG's advert for candidates closes on Monday.

In practice I don't think it's a runner. The best they could do is to agree not to put the candidates forward in alternate regions, giving each other a free run, but even that is difficult in the time.

There are mixed opinions towards the LibDems within TIG, anyway, and - like the SDP in its earliest days - there are those eager to get the most benefit from being "fresh" and untarnished by deals with the existing parties.

eek said:

Sandpit said:

edmundintokyo said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/KenDilanianNBC/status/1116302707340587008

You have to wonder if his best bet at this point wouldn't be to get himself extradited to Sweden, then request asylum there...

That’s a good call. If he goes near the USA he’s not ever going to see daylight again.

He’s got at least a few months of British prison food to look forward to first though, before a decision gets made on what to do with him, plus appeals. No magistrate or judge is going to give him bail either.

I wonder who gets priority in extradition cases - is it first come, first served or something else.

If it's the former the fact the US case is open and the Swedish one isn't, doesn't look good for him.

On balance, I imagine life in a US prison will be worse than life in a tiny flat.

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Diego Costa has been suspended for eight matches after insulting the referee during Atlético Madrid’s 2-0 defeat by Barcelona on Saturday.

Costa was sent off for dissent in the 28th minute at Camp Nou by Jesús Gil Manzano and had to be escorted from the pitch by Barça’s Gerard Piqué after shouting at the official and grabbing his arm. Costa reportedly used a Spanish phrase that referred to defecating on his “prostitute mother”.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/11/diego-costa-eight-match-ban-insulting-referee-atletico-madrid

What a charmer.

Former Chelsea player.

The whole club lacks class.

FrancisUrquhart said:

IanB2 said:

UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

European Parliament

LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
SNP-G/EFA: 2
Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
DUP-NI: 1
SF-LEFT: 1
UUP-ECR: 1

Hanbury Strategy Poll for Open Europe. Who are Hanbury Strategy? Are they members of the polling thingy and what is their record like?

Why would Brexit's result be -3? Do they currently have 9 MEPs?

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

MTimT said:

Charles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Interesting:

The Welsh footballer Ched Evans has agreed an out-of-court settlement with lawyers over their handling of a rape case in which he was imprisoned. It is understood to be around £800,000.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/10/ched-evans-settles-out-of-court-over-lawyers-handling-of-case

So entirely without merit we decided to pay him £800k

Cost of litigation in actual cash, opportunity cost, and diverted strategic attention, vs cost of settlement. Might be 800k is cheap.

Evans would have earnt ~ £2.5 million whilst he was in prison ! £800k settlement (From his lawyers, not the public purse) is nothing I'm going to worry about.

£800K tax-free, though.

Hmm... you mean if I sue one of my own companies and they settle I get a fax free payment.... hmm...

Peter Bone calls for Boris to take over as PM.

Lol.

NickPalmer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

IanB2 said:

UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

European Parliament

LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
SNP-G/EFA: 2
Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
DUP-NI: 1
SF-LEFT: 1
UUP-ECR: 1

Hanbury Strategy Poll for Open Europe. Who are Hanbury Strategy? Are they members of the polling thingy and what is their record like?

Why would Brexit's result be -3? Do they currently have 9 MEPs?

UKIP has only 7 of the large batch of MEPs elected last time left.

Charles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

MTimT said:

Charles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Interesting:

The Welsh footballer Ched Evans has agreed an out-of-court settlement with lawyers over their handling of a rape case in which he was imprisoned. It is understood to be around £800,000.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/apr/10/ched-evans-settles-out-of-court-over-lawyers-handling-of-case

So entirely without merit we decided to pay him £800k

Cost of litigation in actual cash, opportunity cost, and diverted strategic attention, vs cost of settlement. Might be 800k is cheap.

Evans would have earnt ~ £2.5 million whilst he was in prison ! £800k settlement (From his lawyers, not the public purse) is nothing I'm going to worry about.

£800K tax-free, though.

Hmm... you mean if I sue one of my own companies and they settle I get a fax free payment.... hmm...

They aren't necessarily tax free. If they are compensation for loss of earnings they will be taxed.

TheScreamingEagles said:

From 2010

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/12307023966240768?s=21

This from the man who supported Danish Imams who wanted to suppress cartoons which scrutinised Islam......

Corbyn's attachment to free speech is about as great as my attachment to marathon running.

_Anazina_ said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/imbadatlife/status/1116260366311469057?s=21

And yet we are constantly told on PB that we are supposed to fear this clown?

It is also why banning him from YouTube etc is counter-productive.

IanB2 said:

Sean_F said:

Tissue_Price said:

IanB2 said:

Danny565 said:

IanB2 said:

UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

European Parliament

LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
SNP-G/EFA: 2
Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
DUP-NI: 1
SF-LEFT: 1
UUP-ECR: 1

It will be amusing if, despite the media promising a "bloodbath for the main parties", both Labour and the Tories end up gaining seats.

Though I don't believe for a second Labour are going to gain as many as that.

I do think Labour at 11/10 for most Euro seats looks like value. So many Tories are clearly not going to back their own side, and both pro-remain and pro-leave votes are split between rival parties.

Also interesting that the surge, such as it is, will be towards pro-Remain rather than pro-Brexit parties.

Does anyone know how hard it would be to get "the Remain coalition" past the Electoral Commission? Logically LD, TIG, Green and possibly even the nationalists would be far better off trading under this name and horse-trading who sits where on each regional list.

There will be too many competing egos, I imagine.

I expect YouGov will be far closer to the outcome than Hanbury.

You would have to form a new political party, under the list system. The EC is promising to do what it can to fast track applications, which normally take six weeks - TIG's is still going through at the moment. Some of the steps might be quicker if the new party was being created by two established parties, as some of the checks wouldn't be needed, but on the other hand actually creating the entity in time would be extremely problematic, as the LibDems would need to get it through its internal processes and TIG doesn't even have such processes.

Besides, the LibDem elections for candidates in every Euro seat are already underway and TIG's advert for candidates closes on Monday.

In practice I don't think it's a runner. The best they could do is to agree not to put the candidates forward in alternate regions, giving each other a free run, but even that is difficult in the time.

There are mixed opinions towards the LibDems within TIG, anyway, and - like the SDP in its earliest days - there are those eager to get the most benefit from being "fresh" and untarnished by deals with the existing parties.

In any event, I think there's no prospect of getting the SNP, Plaid, or the Greens on board.

Would Change UK sit as part of ALDE?

Charles said:

Sandpit said:

edmundintokyo said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/KenDilanianNBC/status/1116302707340587008

You have to wonder if his best bet at this point wouldn't be to get himself extradited to Sweden, then request asylum there...

That’s a good call. If he goes near the USA he’s not ever going to see daylight again.

He’s got at least a few months of British prison food to look forward to first though, before a decision gets made on what to do with him, plus appeals. No magistrate or judge is going to give him bail either.

I thought extradition requests were dealt with in the order received. I assume the US might have been tipped off in advance

I think that’s right, the question will be is the initial extradition warrant from Sweden still valid?

Some poor magistrates (or do they still have a District Judge in London) are going to have a busy day or two trying to work their way through this mess - with the world’s press camped outside.

The sensible thing is probably for him to appear tomorrow charged with being unlawfully at large, sentence him to six months or a year for that offence which buys time to sort out the bigger issues around the case.

Sandpit said:

Charles said:

Sandpit said:

edmundintokyo said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/KenDilanianNBC/status/1116302707340587008

You have to wonder if his best bet at this point wouldn't be to get himself extradited to Sweden, then request asylum there...

That’s a good call. If he goes near the USA he’s not ever going to see daylight again.

He’s got at least a few months of British prison food to look forward to first though, before a decision gets made on what to do with him, plus appeals. No magistrate or judge is going to give him bail either.

I thought extradition requests were dealt with in the order received. I assume the US might have been tipped off in advance

I think that’s right, the question will be is the initial extradition warrant from Sweden still valid?

Some poor magistrates (or do they still have a District Judge in London) are going to have a busy day or two trying to work their way through this mess - with the world’s press camped outside.

The sensible thing is probably for him to appear tomorrow charged with being unlawfully at large, sentence him to six months or a year for that offence which buys time to sort out the bigger issues around the case.

Equally

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1116315677923655681

Nigelb said:

Sean_F said:

nico67 said:

HYUFD said:

nico67 said:

Labour under no pressure now to agree anything with the government . They need to string this out and see the Tories hammered in the Council and EU elections .

Labour should campaign on the latter with a confirmatory vote . Pro EU voters need to get out and vote in large numbers to stop the hate mongers from framing the narrative .

The latest Yougov today for the European elections has both the Tories and Labour collapsing to just 18% each with the Brexit Party just behind on 17% and CUK up to 10%

That was a hypothetical poll with a purely second vote party aswell . If Labour have a second vote on any deal they’ll top the EU elections .

The Leave vote is split , indeed it’s likely the UK will return less anti EU parties than last time but the media keep pushing the opposite .

Labour should not do any deal with the Tories unless it includes a second vote . They have nothing to gain and will be hammered if they facilitate a Tory Brexit .

I can assure you that the vote share for parties explicitly advocating leaving the EU will be higher than at any previous EU election.

You might well be right, but turnout of those advocating revoke might be equally high.

https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1116289959705497600

I bet she wont say that if remain parties come out on top.

Assange -- never mind justice, what about politics? Has this been focus-grouped? Is it another reason to vote for or against Conservatives (or Corbyn based on the 2010 tweet TSE found)? Will it boost our Foreign or Home Secretary in the forthcoming leadership vote?

Stark_Dawning said:

Terrible to see Theresa 'dismissed from the room' as the rest of the EU discusses our fate - like a naughty schoolgirl by the headmistress and head of house.

No. You always have breakout rooms when you have a negotiation.

Did you expect her to sit in the room and listen to the other side thrash out their position?

williamglenn said:

Stereotomy said:

CarlottaVance said:

The loons are out....

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1116300508141170693

https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/1116295523294748672

He thinks plain clothes police are the same thing as secret police?

Obviously not as bright as he's supposed to be.

Sean_F said:

eek said:

Sandpit said:

edmundintokyo said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/KenDilanianNBC/status/1116302707340587008

You have to wonder if his best bet at this point wouldn't be to get himself extradited to Sweden, then request asylum there...

That’s a good call. If he goes near the USA he’s not ever going to see daylight again.

He’s got at least a few months of British prison food to look forward to first though, before a decision gets made on what to do with him, plus appeals. No magistrate or judge is going to give him bail either.

I wonder who gets priority in extradition cases - is it first come, first served or something else.

If it's the former the fact the US case is open and the Swedish one isn't, doesn't look good for him.

On balance, I imagine life in a US prison will be worse than life in a tiny flat.

He’ll get to go outside though

🤣

kle4 said:

Nigelb said:

Sean_F said:

nico67 said:

HYUFD said:

nico67 said:

Labour under no pressure now to agree anything with the government . They need to string this out and see the Tories hammered in the Council and EU elections .

Labour should campaign on the latter with a confirmatory vote . Pro EU voters need to get out and vote in large numbers to stop the hate mongers from framing the narrative .

The latest Yougov today for the European elections has both the Tories and Labour collapsing to just 18% each with the Brexit Party just behind on 17% and CUK up to 10%

That was a hypothetical poll with a purely second vote party aswell . If Labour have a second vote on any deal they’ll top the EU elections .

The Leave vote is split , indeed it’s likely the UK will return less anti EU parties than last time but the media keep pushing the opposite .

Labour should not do any deal with the Tories unless it includes a second vote . They have nothing to gain and will be hammered if they facilitate a Tory Brexit .

I can assure you that the vote share for parties explicitly advocating leaving the EU will be higher than at any previous EU election.

You might well be right, but turnout of those advocating revoke might be equally high.

https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1116289959705497600

I bet she wont say that if remain parties come out on top.

It would be useful if candidates stood under pro- and anti-Brexit labels as both main parties are split on the matter. But I presume our illiberal election law would prevent that

May making her statement in the Commons, Assange then EU

Danny565 said:

IanB2 said:

UK, Europe Elects projection based on today's Hanbury Strategy poll:

European Parliament

LAB-S&D: 36 (+17)
CON-ECR: 19 (+1)
BREXIT-EFDD: 6 (-3)
LDEM-ALDE: 4 (+3)
UKIP-ENF: 2 (-5)
SNP-G/EFA: 2
Greens-G/EFA: 1 (-2)
DUP-NI: 1
SF-LEFT: 1
UUP-ECR: 1

It will be amusing if, despite the media promising a "bloodbath for the main parties", both Labour and the Tories end up gaining seats.

Though I don't believe for a second Labour are going to gain as many as that.

It does seem a lot. I'd assume they'll come top but not as high as that. LDs look on the low end but that is their way. I just don't see how the Tories even stand still.

Stereotomy said:

isam said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1116208675306209280?s=20

The change figures shown are incorrect. The March BMG survey (including TIG) had Con 37 Lab 31 LD 10 TIG 4 UKIP 6 Grn 5

Horoscopes

This one's more exciting:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1116234117748854784

You might as well just make up a load of numbers a discuss what’d happen if that were the result.

isam said:

Stereotomy said:

isam said:

Danny565 said:

Slackbladder said:

anothernick said:

IanB2 said:

nico67 said:

Labour under no pressure now to agree anything with the government . They need to string this out and see the Tories hammered in the Council and EU elections .

Labour should campaign on the latter with a confirmatory vote . Pro EU voters need to get out and vote in large numbers to stop the hate mongers from framing the narrative .

Watch Peston and see how quick McDonnell is to pick up on any hint from a Tory that any deal with Labour might be undone. They are already at collecting excuses for the breakdown stage.

Labour needs answers to two key questions before it does a deal:

1) How can May guarantee that any deal is not ripped up by her party the moment she steps down?

2) Why should Labour help the Tories out of a mess of their own creation?

Hard to see how May can answer these.

Number 1 is unanswerable full stop by anyone. Once the WA is passed it's passed. Surely it should be judged on it's merits and thats it.

I've never understood this argument. Labour MPs passing the withdrawal agreement is a cost to them; why would they agree to stump up that cost before they knew what the compensatory benefits were (and the guarantees that those benefits would be delivered)?

If you were buying a new phone, would you be happy if you were told that you had to pay up first, and tie yourself into a two-year contract, and that only after you had done all that could you discuss what phone you'd be getting?

The phone you’re buying is a present you promised to your child who would regard anything other than a phone for Christmas as a complete disaster

Although they asked for it quite a while ago, were pretty close to 50/50 on whether they wanted it in the first place, and have since found out a lot more about what phones are actually in your price range. Maybe a good idea to quickly double check they actually still want it, before signing up to a long-term contract?

They would hate you the whole time they didn’t have the phone

And then they grow up.

The end.

_Anazina_ said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/imbadatlife/status/1116260366311469057?s=21

And yet we are constantly told on PB that we are supposed to fear this clown?

Are we?

Charles said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Terrible to see Theresa 'dismissed from the room' as the rest of the EU discusses our fate - like a naughty schoolgirl by the headmistress and head of house.

No. You always have breakout rooms when you have a negotiation.

Did you expect her to sit in the room and listen to the other side thrash out their position?

Humiliation Charles is in the eyes of commentators and historians. So far the commentators believe the episode was humiliating. We shall wait to see how the historians treat it.

kle4 said:

Nigelb said:

Sean_F said:

nico67 said:

HYUFD said:

nico67 said:

Labour under no pressure now to agree anything with the government . They need to string this out and see the Tories hammered in the Council and EU elections .

Labour should campaign on the latter with a confirmatory vote . Pro EU voters need to get out and vote in large numbers to stop the hate mongers from framing the narrative .

The latest Yougov today for the European elections has both the Tories and Labour collapsing to just 18% each with the Brexit Party just behind on 17% and CUK up to 10%

That was a hypothetical poll with a purely second vote party aswell . If Labour have a second vote on any deal they’ll top the EU elections .

The Leave vote is split , indeed it’s likely the UK will return less anti EU parties than last time but the media keep pushing the opposite .

Labour should not do any deal with the Tories unless it includes a second vote . They have nothing to gain and will be hammered if they facilitate a Tory Brexit .

I can assure you that the vote share for parties explicitly advocating leaving the EU will be higher than at any previous EU election.

You might well be right, but turnout of those advocating revoke might be equally high.

https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1116289959705497600

I bet she wont say that if remain parties come out on top.

I think to farage is the verb for that sort of thing.

PM keen to stress the option to leave in May remains, and claiming victory on avoiding hard conditions to the extension.

Stark_Dawning said:

Terrible to see Theresa 'dismissed from the room' as the rest of the EU discusses our fate - like a naughty schoolgirl by the headmistress and head of house.

People really are histrionic about this not in the room stuff. Of course she wasnt. Our failure to leave and needing an extension humiliating, the rest of the EU discussing our request without may present isn't.

Theuniondivvie said:

isam said:

Stereotomy said:

isam said:

Danny565 said:

Slackbladder said:

anothernick said:

IanB2 said:

nico67 said:

Labour under no pressure now to agree anything with the government . They need to string this out and see the Tories hammered in the Council and EU elections .

Labour should campaign on the latter with a confirmatory vote . Pro EU voters need to get out and vote in large numbers to stop the hate mongers from framing the narrative .

Watch Peston and see how quick McDonnell is to pick up on any hint from a Tory that any deal with Labour might be undone. They are already at collecting excuses for the breakdown stage.

Labour needs answers to two key questions before it does a deal:

1) How can May guarantee that any deal is not ripped up by her party the moment she steps down?

2) Why should Labour help the Tories out of a mess of their own creation?

Hard to see how May can answer these.

Number 1 is unanswerable full stop by anyone. Once the WA is passed it's passed. Surely it should be judged on it's merits and thats it.

I've never understood this argument. Labour MPs passing the withdrawal agreement is a cost to them; why would they agree to stump up that cost before they knew what the compensatory benefits were (and the guarantees that those benefits would be delivered)?

If you were buying a new phone, would you be happy if you were told that you had to pay up first, and tie yourself into a two-year contract, and that only after you had done all that could you discuss what phone you'd be getting?

The phone you’re buying is a present you promised to your child who would regard anything other than a phone for Christmas as a complete disaster

Although they asked for it quite a while ago, were pretty close to 50/50 on whether they wanted it in the first place, and have since found out a lot more about what phones are actually in your price range. Maybe a good idea to quickly double check they actually still want it, before signing up to a long-term contract?

They would hate you the whole time they didn’t have the phone

And then they grow up.

The end.

Nope

Pulpstar said:

Assange probably hoping his rape charge is reopened !

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1116315677923655681

Was he ever charged though?

https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/1116321220969078785?s=21