rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

There are other things working against long term housing prices:

1. London valuations are still extremely stretched
2. An ageing population needs less space. (Old people don't want large dusty houses to maintain)
3. Net migration will probably turn negative*
4. Birth rates are still below replacement level

* Yes, it's a gutsy call, but it's one I'm pretty confident about

Hmm, the ONS forecasts that the number of households in England will increase by 4.0 million (17%) over the next 25 years:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/2016basedhouseholdprojectionsinengland/2016basedhouseholdprojectionsinengland

And the ONS is wrong.

I predict that the number of households in the UK will flatten out in the early 2020s, before following the path of Italy and Japan (and others) and slowly declining from later in the decade.

This will not result in milk and honey for all. By contrast, it will result in the value of people's main asset depreciating. People will feel poorer, and unhappier.

You heard it here first.

I think it’s very bold to forecast that ‘this time will be different’ in terms of the impact of automation on unemployment.

The number of people whose employment is derived from attending to the wants of the affluent has been rising for a long time. It was turbocharged by EU expansion in 2004. We can develop the model for some time yet before the affluent match the lifestyles of their counterparts in Brazil or South Africa. I’m not sure it’s what we should be aiming for.

Anyway, bully for you for your contrarianism!

What the fucking fuck?

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1116036447922995200

https://twitter.com/GaryBurgessCI/status/1116036184109613060

TheScreamingEagles said:

What the fucking fuck?

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1116036447922995200

More like Telegraph piece says some vaguely nice things about Francois but stops a long way short of backing him to be leader.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

AndyJS said:

"Sir Richard Branson 'devastated' as Virgin Trains could disappear
The businessman said he was 'baffled' after the government disqualified a Virgin venture from its West Coast mainline bid."

https://news.sky.com/story/east-midlands-rail-franchise-awarded-after-stagecoach-disqualified-11689381

The exit of Virgin (which is really just Stagecoach with a veneer of Branson branding) illustrates the farce of rail privatisation, because it means most of the major players are now European state rail companies, who use the intolerably high fares and generous taxpayer subsidies available in the UK to subsidise their far superior domestic operations. Even the Americans haven't privatised their passenger trains, and they'd sell anything of it'd make a buck. In fact I am on an Amtrak train as I write this, making use of their free WiFi.

Except for the ones that made stonking losses, and therefore subsidised the taxpayer.

It should be remembered that Transport for London bidding to run Buenos Aires metro system . ..

Richard_Tyndall said:

viewcode said:

rpjs said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well this is disappointing, Virgin is my favourite train company.

Virgin boss Sir Richard Branson says his train business could disappear from the UK after its partner Stagecoach was barred from three rail franchise bids.

Sir Richard, whose Virgin Trains is 49% owned by Stagecoach, said he was "devastated" by the disqualification.

The Department for Transport (DfT) disallowed the bids because they did not meet pensions rules.

Virgin was bidding to renew the West Coast franchise in partnership with Stagecoach and France's SNCF.

Stagecoach had also put in for the East Midlands and South Eastern franchises, both of which have been rejected.

In a blog on Virgin's corporate website, Sir Richard said Virgin Trains "could be gone from the UK in November".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47877858

Hurrah! The Virgin brand cheapens everything it touches.

Hmph. I spend almost as much time on trains as Sunil (in fact I'm on one now!) and Virgin have advantages and disadvantages. The trains are reasonably modern and comfortable. But they are chronically overcrowded and they charge for internet. They also have seats where the "lip" of the seat digs into the underside of your thighs behind your knees, which is a vascular accident waiting to happen on long journeys.

I use the East Coast Mainline constantly up and down to Aberdeen and although on the face of it the service has not changed, there are definitely issues now it has gone back into public hands compared to when it was Virgin. The number of delays (based on the number of times I have had to claim back my ticket price) appears to have gone up substantially and it is the norm now that they cannot run a full catering service due to being short staffed.

It is still value for money and I do love the long train journeys but the service levels certainly seem to have slipped in the last year.

I did Virgin West Coast the year the RSS conference was in Glasgow. London Euston to Glasgow Central by train. The scenery was spectacular - the Borders region is really nice - and the seat adequate, but again: overcrowding. Standing in a commuter train is one thing, but for a five-hour journey, oy...

OnlyLivingBoy said:

rcs1000 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

isam said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TGOHF said:

Omnium said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Taxman, the electorate was told pre-vote that its decision would be final and would be implemented, and, post-vote, MPs voted overwhelmingly to respect that and trigger Article 50.

Saying "It was all just pretend" now is as credible as wandering into a Tunisian wreath-laying ceremony and claiming you were "present but not involved".

The electorate was also told No Deal wouldn't happen, we held all the cards etc.

And that there would be 5 million unemployed blah blah.

Our job as the electorate is to make the judgement as to what value we place on what we're told at elections.

For what it's worth I think us 'holding all the cards' had some credence back then. Quite how the negotiations have reduced us now to bluffing on a '5 high' hand escapes me.

We voted for a steak dinner and the chef was replaced by a vegetarian.

Nonetheless she served you a nice steak with all the trimmings which you then decided you didn't want after all.

I think the point is that Leavers, like myself, should have known that we weren't going to get the meal we desired at this particular restaurant, because, whoever the chef was, they didn't want to make it.

Or, if Coldplay are your house band and you get to choose the set list , don't ask them to play Anarchy in the UK then complain it doesn't sound like the Sex Pistols

Your Sex Pistols/Coldplay analogy is apposite. The Sex Pistols no longer exist, and aren't as good as you remember them anyway. Half the people at your party weren't even alive when they were famous, and can't understand why you want to listen to this kind of tuneless noise. And Coldplay, while boring, are the kind of band that are only really hated by angry people who have a deep need to hate something. In other words, just let Coldplay entertain your guests and focus your energy on making sure everyone's glass is full and you don't burn the sausage rolls.

Yeah, but Coldplay are a bunch of c*nts, who try to be Radiohead and fail.

I bet you'd still be chuffed if they played at your party. (I should add for the avoidance of doubt, I don't actually like Coldplay).

I'd rather cut off my right arm than have Coldplay at my party.

rcs1000 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

rcs1000 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

isam said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TGOHF said:

Omnium said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Taxman, the electorate was told pre-vote that its decision would be final and would be implemented, and, post-vote, MPs voted overwhelmingly to respect that and trigger Article 50.

Saying "It was all just pretend" now is as credible as wandering into a Tunisian wreath-laying ceremony and claiming you were "present but not involved".

The electorate was also told No Deal wouldn't happen, we held all the cards etc.

And that there would be 5 million unemployed blah blah.

Our job as the electorate is to make the judgement as to what value we place on what we're told at elections.

For what it's worth I think us 'holding all the cards' had some credence back then. Quite how the negotiations have reduced us now to bluffing on a '5 high' hand escapes me.

We voted for a steak dinner and the chef was replaced by a vegetarian.

Nonetheless she served you a nice steak with all the trimmings which you then decided you didn't want after all.

I think the point is that Leavers, like myself, should have known that we weren't going to get the meal we desired at this particular restaurant, because, whoever the chef was, they didn't want to make it.

Or, if Coldplay are your house band and you get to choose the set list , don't ask them to play Anarchy in the UK then complain it doesn't sound like the Sex Pistols

Your Sex Pistols/Coldplay analogy is apposite. The Sex Pistols no longer exist, and aren't as good as you remember them anyway. Half the people at your party weren't even alive when they were famous, and can't understand why you want to listen to this kind of tuneless noise. And Coldplay, while boring, are the kind of band that are only really hated by angry people who have a deep need to hate something. In other words, just let Coldplay entertain your guests and focus your energy on making sure everyone's glass is full and you don't burn the sausage rolls.

Yeah, but Coldplay are a bunch of c*nts, who try to be Radiohead and fail.

I bet you'd still be chuffed if they played at your party. (I should add for the avoidance of doubt, I don't actually like Coldplay).

I'd rather cut off my right arm than have Coldplay at my party.

Could I use it to throw at them to force them off the stage?

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

There are other things working against long term housing prices:

1. London valuations are still extremely stretched
2. An ageing population needs less space. (Old people don't want large dusty houses to maintain)
3. Net migration will probably turn negative*
4. Birth rates are still below replacement level

* Yes, it's a gutsy call, but it's one I'm pretty confident about

Hmm, the ONS forecasts that the number of households in England will increase by 4.0 million (17%) over the next 25 years:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/2016basedhouseholdprojectionsinengland/2016basedhouseholdprojectionsinengland

And the ONS is wrong.

I predict that the number of households in the UK will flatten out in the early 2020s, before following the path of Italy and Japan (and others) and slowly declining from later in the decade.

This will not result in milk and honey for all. By contrast, it will result in the value of people's main asset depreciating. People will feel poorer, and unhappier.

You heard it here first.

I hope your prediction is right but I can't see how it can be.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

AndyJS said:

"Sir Richard Branson 'devastated' as Virgin Trains could disappear
The businessman said he was 'baffled' after the government disqualified a Virgin venture from its West Coast mainline bid."

https://news.sky.com/story/east-midlands-rail-franchise-awarded-after-stagecoach-disqualified-11689381

The exit of Virgin (which is really just Stagecoach with a veneer of Branson branding) illustrates the farce of rail privatisation, because it means most of the major players are now European state rail companies, who use the intolerably high fares and generous taxpayer subsidies available in the UK to subsidise their far superior domestic operations. Even the Americans haven't privatised their passenger trains, and they'd sell anything of it'd make a buck. In fact I am on an Amtrak train as I write this, making use of their free WiFi.

I am on a commuter train heading into That London. Somehow it just doesn't have the same cachet. Oh look, an empty lager can....

TheScreamingEagles said:

What the fucking fuck?

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1116036447922995200

WTF?

rcs1000 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

isam said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TGOHF said:

Omnium said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Taxman, the electorate was told pre-vote that its decision would be final and would be implemented, and, post-vote, MPs voted overwhelmingly to respect that and trigger Article 50.

Saying "It was all just pretend" now is as credible as wandering into a Tunisian wreath-laying ceremony and claiming you were "present but not involved".

The electorate was also told No Deal wouldn't happen, we held all the cards etc.

And that there would be 5 million unemployed blah blah.

Our job as the electorate is to make the judgement as to what value we place on what we're told at elections.

For what it's worth I think us 'holding all the cards' had some credence back then. Quite how the negotiations have reduced us now to bluffing on a '5 high' hand escapes me.

We voted for a steak dinner and the chef was replaced by a vegetarian.

Nonetheless she served you a nice steak with all the trimmings which you then decided you didn't want after all.

I think the point is that Leavers, like myself, should have known that we weren't going to get the meal we desired at this particular restaurant, because, whoever the chef was, they didn't want to make it.

Or, if Coldplay are your house band and you get to choose the set list , don't ask them to play Anarchy in the UK then complain it doesn't sound like the Sex Pistols

Your Sex Pistols/Coldplay analogy is apposite. The Sex Pistols no longer exist, and aren't as good as you remember them anyway. Half the people at your party weren't even alive when they were famous, and can't understand why you want to listen to this kind of tuneless noise. And Coldplay, while boring, are the kind of band that are only really hated by angry people who have a deep need to hate something. In other words, just let Coldplay entertain your guests and focus your energy on making sure everyone's glass is full and you don't burn the sausage rolls.

Yeah, but Coldplay are a bunch of c*nts, who try to be Radiohead and fail.

I think Coldplay songs are ok.

Right up until the moment Chris Martin opens his mouth.

Richard_Tyndall said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

There are other things working against long term housing prices:

1. London valuations are still extremely stretched
2. An ageing population needs less space. (Old people don't want large dusty houses to maintain)
3. Net migration will probably turn negative*
4. Birth rates are still below replacement level

* Yes, it's a gutsy call, but it's one I'm pretty confident about

Hmm, the ONS forecasts that the number of households in England will increase by 4.0 million (17%) over the next 25 years:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/2016basedhouseholdprojectionsinengland/2016basedhouseholdprojectionsinengland

And the ONS is wrong.

I predict that the number of households in the UK will flatten out in the early 2020s, before following the path of Italy and Japan (and others) and slowly declining from later in the decade.

This will not result in milk and honey for all. By contrast, it will result in the value of people's main asset depreciating. People will feel poorer, and unhappier.

You heard it here first.

Given how many people are priced out of the housing market entirely at present I am afraid that I disagree with you entirely. Even as one of those who will see their main 'asset' depreciate substantially, this will be a very good thing for the country and for the population overall. I certainly don't feel richer if my house goes up in value. But then I see it as a place to live not a place to speculate on.

House prices need a massive readjustment downwards and doing it in the gradual way you describe due to stabilising and then falling population seems a very good answer to this issue.

I think you're reading too much into my piece "this will not result in milk and honey for all".

If house prices rise faster than wages, people are priced out of the housing market.
If they fall in absolute terms, then people feel poorer.

The ideal situation is one where wages grow at 4% (say 2.5% real), and house prices grow at 1%. (A small amount of cushion avoids people falling into negative equity and being unable to move.) That means, over a decade, house prices fall around a third relative to incomes.

But in a situation where house prices fall in absolute terms, you have a raft of serious negative consequences. People who fall behind on their payments are unable to refinance. Banks start taking losses on mortgages and restrict credit availability. People don't sell their homes, because doing so would crystalise losses. Nobody does improvement work on their properties because it has negative real returns.

JosiasJessop said:

viewcode said:

I did Virgin West Coast the year the RSS conference was in Glasgow. London Euston to Glasgow Central by train. The scenery was spectacular - the Borders region is really nice - and the seat adequate, but again: overcrowding. Standing in a commuter train is one thing, but for a five-hour journey, oy...

I first went to Glasgow by coach when I was a student in London. Most of the details have been thankfully wiped from my mind, but give me an overcrowded train for a few hours over a stinking coach for > 10 hours (roadworks and crash).

Having said that, more needs to be done to try to ease overcrowding on trains. But that's not necessarily an easy thing to fix in these days of fixed formation trains ...

What does this tell us?

It tells us fixed formation trains are a very silly idea...

malcolmg said:

TGOHF said:

AndyJS said:

TGOHF said:

AndyJS said:

Another excellent state of the nation John Harris article.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/07/theresa-may-berks-bucks-thames-valley-tory-austerity

"With Brexit eating the Tories up, any notion of how to address such modern issues as the state of local public services, the migration of consumer spending online or our awful public transport now seems to be beyond their collective grasp; by way of ideas, all they have to cling on to is the old ideal of the property-owning democracy, which has long since shut out people under 40, and thus proved to be not very democratic at all."

Whilst public transport is certainly something that needs active policy to manage, I'm not sure the government should be concerned with whether consumer shopping is online or not..

Even if it results in the death of the High Street?

You can't get a haircut, a pint of beer in the sun or a cooked meal on the internet.

Pedestrianise the high street, convert upper stories into flats and make them places for people to gather and socialise. If you want to buy a spanner - go online.

Exactly , I am in Hamelin at present , centre is pedestrianised , well kept , full of all sorts of shops large and small, cafes, restaurants , bars etc , and very busy. It can be done if we had any decent governement, councils , etc instead of donkeys pocketing fat pay cheques for squalor.

Germans behave differently. Have you seen how people look at you when you cross the road on a red light?

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

What the fucking fuck?

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1116036447922995200

WTF?

This is why we can't have nice things

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

rcs1000 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

isam said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TGOHF said:

Omnium said:

TGOHF said:

And that there would be 5 million unemployed blah blah.

Our job as the electorate is to make the judgement as to what value we place on what we're told at elections.

For what it's worth I think us 'holding all the cards' had some credence back then. Quite how the negotiations have reduced us now to bluffing on a '5 high' hand escapes me.

We voted for a steak dinner and the chef was replaced by a vegetarian.

Nonetheless she served you a nice steak with all the trimmings which you then decided you didn't want after all.

I think the point is that Leavers, like myself, should have known that we weren't going to get the meal we desired at this particular restaurant, because, whoever the chef was, they didn't want to make it.

Or, if Coldplay are your house band and you get to choose the set list , don't ask them to play Anarchy in the UK then complain it doesn't sound like the Sex Pistols

Your Sex Pistols/Coldplay analogy is apposite. The Sex Pistols no longer exist, and aren't as good as you remember them anyway. Half the people at your party weren't even alive when they were famous, and can't understand why you want to listen to this kind of tuneless noise. And Coldplay, while boring, are the kind of band that are only really hated by angry people who have a deep need to hate something. In other words, just let Coldplay entertain your guests and focus your energy on making sure everyone's glass is full and you don't burn the sausage rolls.

Yeah, but Coldplay are a bunch of c*nts, who try to be Radiohead and fail.

I bet you'd still be chuffed if they played at your party. (I should add for the avoidance of doubt, I don't actually like Coldplay).

I'd rather cut off my right arm than have Coldplay at my party.

I’d rather listen to a poetry recital.

"Lives there a man with soul so dead
He's never to his toaster said
'you are my friend. I see in you
An object sturdy, staunch and true
A fellow mettlesome and trim
A brightness that the years can't dim'
So let us praise this brave appliance
On which we place our just reliance
And offer it with each fresh slice
Such words of friendship and advice
As 'how are things with you tonight'
Or 'not too dark and not too light'"

rcs1000 said:

Coldplay is Radiohead for people who don't like music.

Coldplay is music for people who can’t hear music.

The sort of people who prefer Opera instead.

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

What the fucking fuck?

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1116036447922995200

It's the Tele's ruse to make Remainers feel lucky when they end up with PM Boris?

Or someone dumped a load of psilocybin in the water cooler.

If the banning policy is consistently applied - no use of c-words and no derogatory remarks about Radiohead - it's going to be awfully quiet on here over Easter.

ydoethur said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

rcs1000 said:

Coldplay is Radiohead for people who don't like music.

I thought Radiohead already cornered that market?

Is that a ban hammer I see incoming?

Sorry, I didn't realise people actually liked Radiohead. I also don't mind pineapple on pizza (sweetcorn is the true pizza topping abomination) and I have never seen Die Hard (but It's a Wonderful Life is the only true Christmas film anyway).

viewcode said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

viewcode said:

rpjs said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well this is disappointing, Virgin is my favourite train company.

Virgin boss Sir Richard Branson says his train business could disappear from the UK after its partner Stagecoach was barred from three rail franchise bids.

Sir Richard, whose Virgin Trains is 49% owned by Stagecoach, said he was "devastated" by the disqualification.

The Department for Transport (DfT) disallowed the bids because they did not meet pensions rules.

Virgin was bidding to renew the West Coast franchise in partnership with Stagecoach and France's SNCF.

Stagecoach had also put in for the East Midlands and South Eastern franchises, both of which have been rejected.

In a blog on Virgin's corporate website, Sir Richard said Virgin Trains "could be gone from the UK in November".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47877858

Hurrah! The Virgin brand cheapens everything it touches.

Hmph. I spend almost as much time on trains as Sunil (in fact I'm on one now!) and Virgin have advantages and disadvantages. The trains are reasonably modern and comfortable. But they are chronically overcrowded and they charge for internet. They also have seats where the "lip" of the seat digs into the underside of your thighs behind your knees, which is a vascular accident waiting to happen on long journeys.

I use the East Coast Mainline constantly up and down to Aberdeen and although on the face of it the service has not changed, there are definitely issues now it has gone back into public hands compared to when it was Virgin. The number of delays (based on the number of times I have had to claim back my ticket price) appears to have gone up substantially and it is the norm now that they cannot run a full catering service due to being short staffed.

It is still value for money and I do love the long train journeys but the service levels certainly seem to have slipped in the last year.

I did Virgin West Coast the year the RSS conference was in Glasgow. London Euston to Glasgow Central by train. The scenery was spectacular - the Borders region is really nice - and the seat adequate, but again: overcrowding. Standing in a commuter train is one thing, but for a five-hour journey, oy...

Cairo to Alexandria, 1st class. Sitting on the floor in the vestibule for 3 hours with the professional smokers wasn’t a pleasure. Still, lesson learnt and a proper bribe on the way back helped.

rpjs said:

ydoethur said:

JosiasJessop said:

viewcode said:

I did Virgin West Coast the year the RSS conference was in Glasgow. London Euston to Glasgow Central by train. The scenery was spectacular - the Borders region is really nice - and the seat adequate, but again: overcrowding. Standing in a commuter train is one thing, but for a five-hour journey, oy...

I first went to Glasgow by coach when I was a student in London. Most of the details have been thankfully wiped from my mind, but give me an overcrowded train for a few hours over a stinking coach for > 10 hours (roadworks and crash).

Having said that, more needs to be done to try to ease overcrowding on trains. But that's not necessarily an easy thing to fix in these days of fixed formation trains ...

What does this tell us?

It tells us fixed formation trains are a very silly idea...

Much as I despise Mr Branson's Pendolinos, but aren't they so long now that they wouldn't fit on the platforms if they had any more cars added.

Most of them are eleven coaches. I have difficulty believing that's the maximum capacity of the main line stations where they operate.

rpjs said:

ydoethur said:

JosiasJessop said:

viewcode said:

I did Virgin West Coast the year the RSS conference was in Glasgow. London Euston to Glasgow Central by train. The scenery was spectacular - the Borders region is really nice - and the seat adequate, but again: overcrowding. Standing in a commuter train is one thing, but for a five-hour journey, oy...

I first went to Glasgow by coach when I was a student in London. Most of the details have been thankfully wiped from my mind, but give me an overcrowded train for a few hours over a stinking coach for > 10 hours (roadworks and crash).

Having said that, more needs to be done to try to ease overcrowding on trains. But that's not necessarily an easy thing to fix in these days of fixed formation trains ...

What does this tell us?

It tells us fixed formation trains are a very silly idea...

Much as I despise Mr Branson's Pendolinos, but aren't they so long now that they wouldn't fit on the platforms if they had any more cars added.

A few years ago Virgin purchased a further four Pendolinos and at the time added two cars to a number of sets. But they had the option to lengthen all of them to 11 cars but chose not to on the grounds of cost. So what you now have is a mixed fleet, which means when there is disruption, the fleet gets mixed up and services allocated 11 car trains get nine car trains and vice versa.

NEW THREAD

Interesting: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47885014