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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-CON leader betting favourite, Javid, drops sharply amidst r

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    matt said:

    AndyJS said:

    Another excellent state of the nation John Harris article.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/07/theresa-may-berks-bucks-thames-valley-tory-austerity

    "With Brexit eating the Tories up, any notion of how to address such modern issues as the state of local public services, the migration of consumer spending online or our awful public transport now seems to be beyond their collective grasp; by way of ideas, all they have to cling on to is the old ideal of the property-owning democracy, which has long since shut out people under 40, and thus proved to be not very democratic at all."

    Is the line about under 40's and property true or the view from London transposed across the country?
    It is ceasing to be the case. Rates of home ownership are starting to rise again, among people aged over 25. 750,000 people became first time buyers in the past two years.

    Housing became unaffordable for loads of people, as property prices rose by 320% from 1996 to 2007. Outside London, and a few hotspots, they've barely moved since then.
    Or, in the case of the northeast fallen by 7.1% between 2007 and 2017. Source ONS.
    A chart might be more useful than looking relative to an arbitrary date. Sean did say it was starting to rise again, implying a more recent turnaround.
    https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs/generated/uk-house-prices-2018.png the last decade has very sideways for house prices.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited April 2019
    "Reuters has some new Brexit-related quotes from the Belgian prime minister, Charles Michel, and it’s probably fair to say they’re on the more gnomic side of things. Asked about a Brexit extension for the UK he said:

    It is not certain there will be a delay. And it is not certain what that would mean."

    Hardball from the French and Belgians I think, to make fully sure Theresa is on board with the conditions.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    kinabalu said:

    .... However, I do not believe should a Corbyn led Labour government come to power that there is the remotest prospect of antisemitism influencing any policy that they might consider or pursue, or of the lives of Jewish people in the UK being adversely impacted in any way....

    That's not what many Jewish people think. They are seriously worried.
    Here’s another one this week: Labour group whose President is John McDonnell calling for the Jewish Labour Movement to be kicked out, because they’re funded by Israeli Intelligence. Says any allegations of antisemitism by the likes of Luciana Berger are just made up by supporters of austerity and egged on by the Tory Press.
    https://labourrep.com/blog/2019/4/8/jlm-stabs-labour-in-the-back

    But definitely not an institutional problem with antisemitism.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    ydoethur said:

    I dunno. I hear him called by one word that relates to females fairly often...

    So I have heard.

    But for me, McDonnell is the ying to Jeremy's yang. To think of them like Jagger and Richards, bonding together as teenagers over a shared love of not the blues but the core tenets of socialism, would be going too far but it's that sort of thing.

    A case of the sum is greater than the parts.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:


    #newprofilepic?



    Available for the coinage of your choice at Hornchurch Airfield Tesco

    That's my favourite tie.

    Talking about coinage I have vowed not to use cash to pay for almost anything again especially anything that isn't a round figure (ie £5, £10, etc). For example if I buy a salmon sushi set at ITSU for £4.09 it effectively costs me £4.20 as I am very unlikely to use the 10p anywhere and will never use the 1p.

    Just thought I'd mention it.
    I chuck mine in a dusty bin next to my bed and they pay for things I dont want to fork out for.. like a brace for my teeth!
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,289

    "Reuters has some new Brexit-related quotes from the Belgian prime minister, Charles Michel, and it’s probably fair to say they’re on the more gnomic side of things. Asked about a Brexit extension for the UK he said:

    It is not certain there will be a delay. And it is not certain what that would mean."

    Hardball from the French and Belgians I think, to make fully sure Theresa May is on board with the conditions.

    Le Monde was reporting a certain hard line from that area of Europe, with Luxembourg on board as well, though still seeing an EU dictated extension as the most likely outcome.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,383
    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    matt said:

    AndyJS said:

    Another excellent state of the nation John Harris article.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/07/theresa-may-berks-bucks-thames-valley-tory-austerity

    "With Brexit eating the Tories up, any notion of how to address such modern issues as the state of local public services, the migration of consumer spending online or our awful public transport now seems to be beyond their collective grasp; by way of ideas, all they have to cling on to is the old ideal of the property-owning democracy, which has long since shut out people under 40, and thus proved to be not very democratic at all."

    Is the line about under 40's and property true or the view from London transposed across the country?
    It is ceasing to be the case. Rates of home ownership are starting to rise again, among people aged over 25. 750,000 people became first time buyers in the past two years.

    Housing became unaffordable for loads of people, as property prices rose by 320% from 1996 to 2007. Outside London, and a few hotspots, they've barely moved since then.
    Or, in the case of the northeast fallen by 7.1% between 2007 and 2017. Source ONS.
    A chart might be more useful than looking relative to an arbitrary date. Sean did say it was starting to rise again, implying a more recent turnaround.
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/media/blog/home-ownership-is-rising-but-the-crisis-is-far-from-over/

    This article summarises changes in home ownership rates.

    The growing unattractiveness of buy to let for non-institutional investors, and the current boom in private new building, will probably boost this trend.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    "Reuters has some new Brexit-related quotes from the Belgian prime minister, Charles Michel, and it’s probably fair to say they’re on the more gnomic side of things. Asked about a Brexit extension for the UK he said:

    It is not certain there will be a delay. And it is not certain what that would mean."

    Hardball from the French and Belgians I think, to make fully sure Theresa May is on board with the conditions.

    Has Macron really thought through what a no-deal Brexit looks like in France for the first few days and weeks?

    Oh, and if the EU are prepared to kick the U.K. out in 48 hours’ time, what’s their plan for the Irish border?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited April 2019
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    .... However, I do not believe should a Corbyn led Labour government come to power that there is the remotest prospect of antisemitism influencing any policy that they might consider or pursue, or of the lives of Jewish people in the UK being adversely impacted in any way....

    That's not what many Jewish people think. They are seriously worried.
    Here’s another one this week: Labour group whose President is John McDonnell calling for the Jewish Labour Movement to be kicked out, because they’re funded by Israeli Intelligence. Says any allegations of antisemitism by the likes of Luciana Berger are just made up by supporters of austerity and egged on by the Tory Press.
    https://labourrep.com/blog/2019/4/8/jlm-stabs-labour-in-the-back

    But definitely not an institutional problem with antisemitism.
    I liked this bit:

    For instance [the Jewish Labour Movement] claims that, “Our parliamentary chair, Luciana Berger, [who] was driven out of the Party.” Let us be clear. Luciana Berger left the Party of her own accord.

    Much like the Jews who left 1930s Germany of their own accord.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited April 2019
    Sandpit said:

    "Reuters has some new Brexit-related quotes from the Belgian prime minister, Charles Michel, and it’s probably fair to say they’re on the more gnomic side of things. Asked about a Brexit extension for the UK he said:

    It is not certain there will be a delay. And it is not certain what that would mean."

    Hardball from the French and Belgians I think, to make fully sure Theresa May is on board with the conditions.

    Has Macron really thought through what a no-deal Brexit looks like in France for the first few days and weeks?

    Oh, and if the EU are prepared to kick the U.K. out in 48 hours’ time, what’s their plan for the Irish border?
    It seems exceptionally unlikely to me, but some so-called "hard" bargaining with the conditions Britain will accept also seems very likely to me.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Sandpit, unlikely they'd refuse an extension when they know May will capitulate utterly to any demand they make.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Macron will not veto an extension . The issue is the duration of that .
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    nico67 said:

    Macron will not veto an extension . The issue is the duration of that .

    nico67 is Macron?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    @RossKempsell: Govt to a rebel MP this morning: “What would you like to see the PM come back with tonight?”

    Tory MP: “I don’t want to see her come back with anything, I want her to claim asylum in Brussels and not come back
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited April 2019
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Macron will not veto an extension . The issue is the duration of that .

    nico67 is Macron?
    Macron does like to talk about himself in the third person after all, and PB would make a good undercover spot.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,137
    edited April 2019
    nico67 said:

    Macron will not veto an extension . The issue is the duration of that .

    Former Finnish Prime Minister has just said there will be two choices for the leaders tonight and the meeting could go on into the early hours

    The first choice is a long extension and the second is only to the EU elections with a choice of WDA - no deal - revoke

    Now the second choice is the one I prefer
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    IanB2 said:

    @RossKempsell: Govt to a rebel MP this morning: “What would you like to see the PM come back with tonight?”

    Tory MP: “I don’t want to see her come back with anything, I want her to claim asylum in Brussels and not come back

    The EU has nothing more to offer. They need to get it into their (apparently rather dense) heads that it is this deal or nothing.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    More on the Labour Representation Committee - read the statement posted here, below the agenda:

    https://labourrep.com/conference-2019

    Whilst I'm sure that all that hate and bile is vintage John McDonnell, it is astonishing that he is still associated with it, remains president and spoke at the conference. I thought he was trying to hide all that side of his persona.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:


    #newprofilepic?



    Available for the coinage of your choice at Hornchurch Airfield Tesco

    That's my favourite tie.

    Talking about coinage I have vowed not to use cash to pay for almost anything again especially anything that isn't a round figure (ie £5, £10, etc). For example if I buy a salmon sushi set at ITSU for £4.09 it effectively costs me £4.20 as I am very unlikely to use the 10p anywhere and will never use the 1p.

    Just thought I'd mention it.
    In Ireland they round up/down to 5/10c. It makes sense and doesn't seem to cause any outrage. I can imagine the letters pages of the Express and Telegraph though. Perhaps the removal of the 0.5p coin generated outrage.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    nico67 said:

    Macron will not veto an extension . The issue is the duration of that .

    Finnish Minister just said there will be two choices for the leaders tonight and the meeting could go on into the early hours

    The first choice is a long extension and the second is only to the EU elections with a choice of WDA - no deal - revoke

    Now the second choice is the one I prefer
    I massively want the EU elections to take place

    What price Labour get 38% or more, as per today's poll, anyone?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Macron will not veto an extension . The issue is the duration of that .

    nico67 is Macron?
    Lmao ! The EU Council works on consensus . They’ll find a landing zone that they can all live with but it will be an extension . We’re just talking about the duration and the conditions attached .
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,901
    Back to a subject I raised earlier in the week - the changing world of the betting office in the era of £2 FOBT maximum stakes:

    https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/punters-are-voting-with-their-feet-bookmaker-warning-on-new-fobt-limit/375043

    I went up East Ham High Street on the Tuesday after the change in stakes and the bookmakers were deserted apart from one or two old boys watching the virtual racing. The FOBTs sat unused and unloved.

    This week has revealed a slight change - one or two people have started back playing them though I suspect the volume is a fraction of what it was. For all that betting shops reportedly had a strong Grand National day it will be fascinating to see how the month and the first quarter works out.

    We've yet to see any signs of shops closing but the bookies are ruthless with economics and if shops won't pay they will close.

    As an aside, the retail crisis has reached East Ham as well. The Bargain Buys has gone to be replaced by a Food warehouse while the former Vodafone shop is now East Ham Fresh Fish which reminds me of that classic Laurel & Hardy film.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237

    That's not what many Jewish people think. They are seriously worried.

    Yes, I know. What I'm hoping is that Labour form the next government and get the chance to show that those fears are unfounded. That they would fail to do so is to me unthinkable.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    Macron will not veto an extension . The issue is the duration of that .

    Finnish Minister just said there will be two choices for the leaders tonight and the meeting could go on into the early hours

    The first choice is a long extension and the second is only to the EU elections with a choice of WDA - no deal - revoke

    Now the second choice is the one I prefer
    I massively want the EU elections to take place

    What price Labour get 38% or more, as per today's poll, anyone?
    It would be a strange bet, given the possibility of one or more parties boycotting. or soft pedalling.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:


    #newprofilepic?



    Available for the coinage of your choice at Hornchurch Airfield Tesco

    That's my favourite tie.

    Talking about coinage I have vowed not to use cash to pay for almost anything again especially anything that isn't a round figure (ie £5, £10, etc). For example if I buy a salmon sushi set at ITSU for £4.09 it effectively costs me £4.20 as I am very unlikely to use the 10p anywhere and will never use the 1p.

    Just thought I'd mention it.
    Agreed, but a better option is to refuse to use cash whatsoever. I have a policy now, if places don't accept cards, I don't use them. Incidentally, I was at the the Spurs vs City match last night. Nowhere in the stadium accepts cash – which is the right way to go. The coffee shop near my office has just adopted a similar policy –shopkeeper reckons he's vastly increased revenues in the key morning rush hour as the main determinant of whether passers-by drop in is how long the queue is.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Macron will not veto an extension . The issue is the duration of that .

    nico67 is Macron?
    Lmao ! The EU Council works on consensus . They’ll find a landing zone that they can all live with but it will be an extension . We’re just talking about the duration and the conditions attached .
    I thought it required unanimity?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    matt said:


    TOPPING said:

    isam said:


    #newprofilepic?



    Available for the coinage of your choice at Hornchurch Airfield Tesco

    That's my favourite tie.

    Talking about coinage I have vowed not to use cash to pay for almost anything again especially anything that isn't a round figure (ie £5, £10, etc). For example if I buy a salmon sushi set at ITSU for £4.09 it effectively costs me £4.20 as I am very unlikely to use the 10p anywhere and will never use the 1p.

    Just thought I'd mention it.
    In Ireland they round up/down to 5/10c. It makes sense and doesn't seem to cause any outrage. I can imagine the letters pages of the Express and Telegraph though. Perhaps the removal of the 0.5p coin generated outrage.
    There was a very wise government proposal fairly recently to cease the production of coppers. Sadly, various groups cried foul and we are stuck with the blighters. Is there anyone who doesn't have a pile of worthless metal gathering dust in a coin tray somewhere? Just get rid of cash, full stop.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    @AlastairMeeks mentioned that Kippers tend to live by the sea, or people that live by the sea tend to be kippers...

    https://unherd.com/2019/04/why-lifes-no-beach-by-the-seaside/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Anazina, boo and also hiss to your cuprolaminophobia!
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Macron will not veto an extension . The issue is the duration of that .

    nico67 is Macron?
    Lmao ! The EU Council works on consensus . They’ll find a landing zone that they can all live with but it will be an extension . We’re just talking about the duration and the conditions attached .
    I thought it required unanimity?
    The EU ambassadors have already agreed to an extension , they have to clear that with their respective leaders they don’t just make their own decision .

    The issue is the duration and conditions .
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    The first choice is a long extension and the second is only to the EU elections with a choice of WDA - no deal - revoke

    Now the second choice is the one I prefer

    Same here. Given a long extension, MPs will just vote no to everything, until said extension is up.

  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Mr. Sandpit, unlikely they'd refuse an extension when they know May will capitulate utterly to any demand they make.

    She might also offer suggested demands - didn't she propose the Irish border backstop?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,383
    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    Macron will not veto an extension . The issue is the duration of that .

    Finnish Minister just said there will be two choices for the leaders tonight and the meeting could go on into the early hours

    The first choice is a long extension and the second is only to the EU elections with a choice of WDA - no deal - revoke

    Now the second choice is the one I prefer
    I massively want the EU elections to take place

    What price Labour get 38% or more, as per today's poll, anyone?
    Subject to Events, as always, but I'd say the likelihood of Labour winning 38% + is less than 5%. The nature of these elections ensures that the Conservative and Labour votes splinter.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    matt said:


    TOPPING said:

    isam said:


    #newprofilepic?



    Available for the coinage of your choice at Hornchurch Airfield Tesco

    That's my favourite tie.

    Talking about coinage I have vowed not to use cash to pay for almost anything again especially anything that isn't a round figure (ie £5, £10, etc). For example if I buy a salmon sushi set at ITSU for £4.09 it effectively costs me £4.20 as I am very unlikely to use the 10p anywhere and will never use the 1p.

    Just thought I'd mention it.
    In Ireland they round up/down to 5/10c. It makes sense and doesn't seem to cause any outrage. I can imagine the letters pages of the Express and Telegraph though. Perhaps the removal of the 0.5p coin generated outrage.
    Getting rid of 1c in the us is onr of andrew yangs most sensible proposals.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    kinabalu said:

    That's not what many Jewish people think. They are seriously worried.

    Yes, I know. What I'm hoping is that Labour form the next government and get the chance to show that those fears are unfounded. That they would fail to do so is to me unthinkable.
    Imagine yourself in Berlin in 1935. Lots of things were unthinkable then.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    kinabalu said:

    That's not what many Jewish people think. They are seriously worried.

    Yes, I know. What I'm hoping is that Labour form the next government and get the chance to show that those fears are unfounded. That they would fail to do so is to me unthinkable.
    It's unthinkable that a future PM would have invited IRA terrorists into parliament in the immediate aftermath of MPs and their wives being maimed and killed by the IRA, or laid wreaths at the graves of terrorist murderers, or that a future Chancellor would display in his office a plaque dedicated to Bobby Sands and other IRA terrorists, or that Labour MPs would be driven out of the party because they are Jewish. You need to adjust your view of what is unthinkable.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    Mr. Anazina, boo and also hiss to your cuprolaminophobia!

    What's the point of keeping cash? It's wasteful (as Topping elegantly illustrates), environmentally unfriendly, risky to carry and a conduit for illegal enterprises. I never carry it. I recently went an entire fortnight in the US without touching a single dollar.

    Get rid of it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    TOPPING said:

    Yeah agree it should be called out wherever it appears. And often is.

    https://independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-criticised-for-anti-semitic-howard-poster-488998.html

    Edit I see @ydoethur got there before me.

    Trump the other day repeatedly described Netanyahu as "Your Prime Minister" to a group of Jewish Americans.

    Is it antisemitism when the inference of a greater loyalty to Israel is made in a slavishly admiring fashion?

    Not totally sure but I think it probably is.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Macron will not veto an extension . The issue is the duration of that .

    nico67 is Macron?
    Lmao ! The EU Council works on consensus . They’ll find a landing zone that they can all live with but it will be an extension . We’re just talking about the duration and the conditions attached .
    Distinct lack of interest this week from the gen public.

    "Hurry up and shaft us again" seems to be the feeling.

    Nige is firing up the Ford Capri this weekend - may or may not focus Con MPs minds..
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Even the grilled fish wagon at my local market accepts card payments now.

    Cash is dead.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    isam said:

    @AlastairMeeks mentioned that Kippers tend to live by the sea, or people that live by the sea tend to be kippers...

    https://unherd.com/2019/04/why-lifes-no-beach-by-the-seaside/

    don't you mean IN the sea?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Macron will not veto an extension . The issue is the duration of that .

    nico67 is Macron?
    Lmao ! The EU Council works on consensus . They’ll find a landing zone that they can all live with but it will be an extension . We’re just talking about the duration and the conditions attached .
    I thought it required unanimity?
    The EU ambassadors have already agreed to an extension , they have to clear that with their respective leaders they don’t just make their own decision .

    The issue is the duration and conditions .
    As of the ambassadors make the real decision!
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Andrew said:


    The first choice is a long extension and the second is only to the EU elections with a choice of WDA - no deal - revoke

    Now the second choice is the one I prefer

    Same here. Given a long extension, MPs will just vote no to everything, until said extension is up.

    Role reversal on the backstop?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    @AlastairMeeks mentioned that Kippers tend to live by the sea, or people that live by the sea tend to be kippers...

    https://unherd.com/2019/04/why-lifes-no-beach-by-the-seaside/

    If you've not seen it, there's a brilliant long read in the FT about this from a little while back:

    https://twitter.com/sarahoconnor_/status/1011360985217748992

    I wrote a piece on this subject last year myself:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/04/10/flotsam-and-jetsam-britains-quiet-coastal-disaster/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Yeah agree it should be called out wherever it appears. And often is.

    https://independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-criticised-for-anti-semitic-howard-poster-488998.html

    Edit I see @ydoethur got there before me.

    Trump the other day repeatedly described Netanyahu as "Your Prime Minister" to a group of Jewish Americans.

    Is it antisemitism when the inference of a greater loyalty to Israel is made in a slavishly admiring fashion?

    Not totally sure but I think it probably is.
    Depends how many of them are dual nationals, I suppose.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    IanB2 said:

    @RossKempsell: Govt to a rebel MP this morning: “What would you like to see the PM come back with tonight?”

    Tory MP: “I don’t want to see her come back with anything, I want her to claim asylum in Brussels and not come back

    :D:D:D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Mr. Sandpit, unlikely they'd refuse an extension when they know May will capitulate utterly to any demand they make.

    She might also offer suggested demands - didn't she propose the Irish border backstop?

    No, her counter was the UK-wide arrangement.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    kinabalu said:

    That's not what many Jewish people think. They are seriously worried.

    Yes, I know. What I'm hoping is that Labour form the next government and get the chance to show that those fears are unfounded. That they would fail to do so is to me unthinkable.
    It's unthinkable that a future PM would have invited IRA terrorists into parliament in the immediate aftermath of MPs and their wives being maimed and killed by the IRA, or laid wreaths at the graves of terrorist murderers, or that a future Chancellor would display in his office a plaque dedicated to Bobby Sands and other IRA terrorists, or that Labour MPs would be driven out of the party because they are Jewish. You need to adjust your view of what is unthinkable.
    He may of course have thunk them
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    TGOHF said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Macron will not veto an extension . The issue is the duration of that .

    nico67 is Macron?
    Lmao ! The EU Council works on consensus . They’ll find a landing zone that they can all live with but it will be an extension . We’re just talking about the duration and the conditions attached .
    Distinct lack of interest this week from the gen public.

    "Hurry up and shaft us again" seems to be the feeling.

    Nige is firing up the Ford Capri this weekend - may or may not focus Con MPs minds..
    Nick Ferrari speaks for many. Just make it go away. Revoke or no deal.

    The former offers the quieter life.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,543
    stodge said:


    Cities for living in. Essential development.

    Indeed - the notion of regeneration of city centres purely in terms of retail is long dead. Many of the developments coming forward are predicated on the notion of "place" where you live, work and relax in the same physical environment. Flats on top of small start-up units or common working areas with excellent wifi surrounded by smaller retail opportunities are the new models.

    Public services are looking at "hubs" where all public services are co-located and access to one part of the public sector equals access to them all.

    The next thing to go will be the traditional suburb - horrendously outmoded and ill-suited to a world where there will be less requirement to travel or commute but where social interaction will still be needed.

    stodge said:


    Cities for living in. Essential development.

    Indeed - the notion of regeneration of city centres purely in terms of retail is long dead. Many of the developments coming forward are predicated on the notion of "place" where you live, work and relax in the same physical environment. Flats on top of small start-up units or common working areas with excellent wifi surrounded by smaller retail opportunities are the new models.

    Public services are looking at "hubs" where all public services are co-located and access to one part of the public sector equals access to them all.

    The next thing to go will be the traditional suburb - horrendously outmoded and ill-suited to a world where there will be less requirement to travel or commute but where social interaction will still be needed.

    This looks very similar to the Garden City movement founded by Sir Ebenezer Howard. Letchworth was the first Garden City with Welwyn GC following behind.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    @AlastairMeeks mentioned that Kippers tend to live by the sea, or people that live by the sea tend to be kippers...

    https://unherd.com/2019/04/why-lifes-no-beach-by-the-seaside/

    If you've not seen it, there's a brilliant long read in the FT about this from a little while back:

    https://twitter.com/sarahoconnor_/status/1011360985217748992

    I wrote a piece on this subject last year myself:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/04/10/flotsam-and-jetsam-britains-quiet-coastal-disaster/
    Yet Leigh-on-Sea is the happiest place in Britain! Hopefully that's my next move
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Cide, one imagines she'll offer to cede the Vexin...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    IanB2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Macron will not veto an extension . The issue is the duration of that .

    nico67 is Macron?
    Lmao ! The EU Council works on consensus . They’ll find a landing zone that they can all live with but it will be an extension . We’re just talking about the duration and the conditions attached .
    Distinct lack of interest this week from the gen public.

    "Hurry up and shaft us again" seems to be the feeling.

    Nige is firing up the Ford Capri this weekend - may or may not focus Con MPs minds..
    Nick Ferrari speaks for many. Just make it go away. Revoke or no deal.

    The former offers the quieter life.
    Apart from the whole ignoring democracy thing.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. B2, a straight revocation will delight the Commons.

    And plant the seeds for the rise of the far right, I fear. Teaching voters they can and will be ignored by the political class is a damned silly game to play.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    IanB2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Macron will not veto an extension . The issue is the duration of that .

    nico67 is Macron?
    Lmao ! The EU Council works on consensus . They’ll find a landing zone that they can all live with but it will be an extension . We’re just talking about the duration and the conditions attached .
    Distinct lack of interest this week from the gen public.

    "Hurry up and shaft us again" seems to be the feeling.

    Nige is firing up the Ford Capri this weekend - may or may not focus Con MPs minds..
    Nick Ferrari speaks for many. Just make it go away. Revoke or no deal.

    The former offers the quieter life.
    I trust you were touching your forelock when offering your preferred option.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    edited April 2019
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Imagine yourself in Berlin in 1935. Lots of things were unthinkable then.

    Indeed. No room for complacency. I'm just exercising my judgment, which is telling me that there is no risk of Jewish people being persecuted, or in any way discriminated against, by an incoming Labour government led by Jeremy Corbyn. If there was such a risk, any significant risk at all, to say that they would lose my vote would be the least of it - the party would need to be banned.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited April 2019
    kinabalu said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Imagine yourself in Berlin in 1935. Lots of things were unthinkable then.

    Indeed. No room for complacency. I'm just exercising my judgment, which is telling me that there is no risk of Jewish people being persecuted, or in any way discriminated against, by an incoming Labour government led by Jeremy Corbyn. If there was such a risk, any significant risk at all, to say that they would lose my vote would be the least of it - the party would need to be banned.
    Indeed - especially as Ed Miliband is one of the people who may follow him as prime minister.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2019

    isam said:

    @AlastairMeeks mentioned that Kippers tend to live by the sea, or people that live by the sea tend to be kippers...

    https://unherd.com/2019/04/why-lifes-no-beach-by-the-seaside/

    If you've not seen it, there's a brilliant long read in the FT about this from a little while back:

    https://twitter.com/sarahoconnor_/status/1011360985217748992

    I wrote a piece on this subject last year myself:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/04/10/flotsam-and-jetsam-britains-quiet-coastal-disaster/
    Without wanting to go over old ground...

    The people described in these deadbeat coastal towns, suffering from anxiety, loneliness and depression, voted quite strongly for Brexit, perhaps as a cry for help, or at least to feel they were slightly empowered... they won, and the rich kids said "Just kidding"

    So what are the people who wish to ignore them going to do for them?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Mr. Cide, one imagines she'll offer to cede the Vexin...

    Is it within her personal gift?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Macron will not veto an extension . The issue is the duration of that .

    nico67 is Macron?
    Lmao ! The EU Council works on consensus . They’ll find a landing zone that they can all live with but it will be an extension . We’re just talking about the duration and the conditions attached .
    I thought it required unanimity?
    The EU ambassadors have already agreed to an extension , they have to clear that with their respective leaders they don’t just make their own decision .

    The issue is the duration and conditions .
    As of the ambassadors make the real decision!
    Last nights EU ambassadors meeting agreed an extension which was okayed by their own leaders . They can’t agree to something totally at odds with their own governments position .

    It’s either a short or long extension . That’s now what the leaders will discuss .

  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    kinabalu said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Imagine yourself in Berlin in 1935. Lots of things were unthinkable then.

    Indeed. No room for complacency. I'm just exercising my judgment, which is telling me that there is no risk of Jewish people being persecuted, or in any way discriminated against, by an incoming Labour government led by Jeremy Corbyn. If there was such a risk, any significant risk at all, to say that they would lose my vote would be the least of it - the party would need to be banned.
    OK on the QT then?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    IanB2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Macron will not veto an extension . The issue is the duration of that .

    nico67 is Macron?
    Lmao ! The EU Council works on consensus . They’ll find a landing zone that they can all live with but it will be an extension . We’re just talking about the duration and the conditions attached .
    Distinct lack of interest this week from the gen public.

    "Hurry up and shaft us again" seems to be the feeling.

    Nige is firing up the Ford Capri this weekend - may or may not focus Con MPs minds..
    Nick Ferrari speaks for many. Just make it go away. Revoke or no deal.

    The former offers the quieter life.
    The latter would certainly not make Brexit go away.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,901

    nico67 said:

    Macron will not veto an extension . The issue is the duration of that .

    Former Finnish Prime Minister has just said there will be two choices for the leaders tonight and the meeting could go on into the early hours

    The first choice is a long extension and the second is only to the EU elections with a choice of WDA - no deal - revoke

    Now the second choice is the one I prefer
    As far as your preferred choice is concerned, some thoughts. Cooper/Letwin makes leaving without a Deal illegal (or does it?). However, if you want to leave anyway, there's no incentive to support the WA as you can simply run the clock down to 22/5 and you're out.

    So ultimately May is left with only one option and that's to Revoke which she knows would be severe for the Conservative Party.

    To test the analogy, May would be caught between a rock, a hard place and a third equally unpleasant place.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2019
    The problems of seaside towns aren't all that new. I remember reading about it in the Almanac of British Politics in about 1999. Hastings was mentioned as an example of a place where people on welfare benefits tended to congregate, so we've had at least 20 years to think about it.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    isam said:

    isam said:

    @AlastairMeeks mentioned that Kippers tend to live by the sea, or people that live by the sea tend to be kippers...

    https://unherd.com/2019/04/why-lifes-no-beach-by-the-seaside/

    If you've not seen it, there's a brilliant long read in the FT about this from a little while back:

    https://twitter.com/sarahoconnor_/status/1011360985217748992

    I wrote a piece on this subject last year myself:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/04/10/flotsam-and-jetsam-britains-quiet-coastal-disaster/
    Without wanting to go over old ground...

    The people described in these deadbeat coastal towns, suffering from anxiety, loneliness and depression, voted quite strongly for Brexit, perhaps as a cry for help, or at least to feel they were slightly empowered... they won, and the rich kids said "Just kidding"

    So what are the people who wish to ignore them going to do for them?
    Quite.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    stodge said:


    Cities for living in. Essential development.

    Indeed - the notion of regeneration of city centres purely in terms of retail is long dead. Many of the developments coming forward are predicated on the notion of "place" where you live, work and relax in the same physical environment. Flats on top of small start-up units or common working areas with excellent wifi surrounded by smaller retail opportunities are the new models.

    Public services are looking at "hubs" where all public services are co-located and access to one part of the public sector equals access to them all.

    The next thing to go will be the traditional suburb - horrendously outmoded and ill-suited to a world where there will be less requirement to travel or commute but where social interaction will still be needed.

    stodge said:


    Cities for living in. Essential development.

    Indeed - the notion of regeneration of city centres purely in terms of retail is long dead. Many of the developments coming forward are predicated on the notion of "place" where you live, work and relax in the same physical environment. Flats on top of small start-up units or common working areas with excellent wifi surrounded by smaller retail opportunities are the new models.

    Public services are looking at "hubs" where all public services are co-located and access to one part of the public sector equals access to them all.

    The next thing to go will be the traditional suburb - horrendously outmoded and ill-suited to a world where there will be less requirement to travel or commute but where social interaction will still be needed.

    This looks very similar to the Garden City movement founded by Sir Ebenezer Howard. Letchworth was the first Garden City with Welwyn GC following behind.
    I used to live near Letchworth. The highlight of the place is Britain's first roundabout. It's spectacularly, po-facedly dull, as is WGC. Perhaps that's just a function of all garden cities.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    _Anazina_ said:

    Even the grilled fish wagon at my local market accepts card payments now.

    Cash is dead.

    I deliberately use cash as much as possible because I think it's good to have alternative ways of doing things.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    .... However, I do not believe should a Corbyn led Labour government come to power that there is the remotest prospect of antisemitism influencing any policy that they might consider or pursue, or of the lives of Jewish people in the UK being adversely impacted in any way....

    That's not what many Jewish people think. They are seriously worried.
    Here’s another one this week: Labour group whose President is John McDonnell calling for the Jewish Labour Movement to be kicked out, because they’re funded by Israeli Intelligence. Says any allegations of antisemitism by the likes of Luciana Berger are just made up by supporters of austerity and egged on by the Tory Press.
    https://labourrep.com/blog/2019/4/8/jlm-stabs-labour-in-the-back

    But definitely not an institutional problem with antisemitism.
    I liked this bit:

    For instance [the Jewish Labour Movement] claims that, “Our parliamentary chair, Luciana Berger, [who] was driven out of the Party.” Let us be clear. Luciana Berger left the Party of her own accord.

    Much like the Jews who left 1930s Germany of their own accord.
    You think Luciana Berger was going to be rounded up and put in a concentration camp?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    Mr. B2, a straight revocation will delight the Commons.

    And plant the seeds for the rise of the far right, I fear. Teaching voters they can and will be ignored by the political class is a damned silly game to play.

    The far right (political wing) kept voting it down. Funny old world.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    stodge said:


    Cities for living in. Essential development.

    Indeed - the notion of regeneration of city centres purely in terms of retail is long dead. Many of the developments coming forward are predicated on the notion of "place" where you live, work and relax in the same physical environment. Flats on top of small start-up units or common working areas with excellent wifi surrounded by smaller retail opportunities are the new models.

    Public services are looking at "hubs" where all public services are co-located and access to one part of the public sector equals access to them all.

    The next thing to go will be the traditional suburb - horrendously outmoded and ill-suited to a world where there will be less requirement to travel or commute but where social interaction will still be needed.

    stodge said:


    Cities for living in. Essential development.

    Indeed - the notion of regeneration of city centres purely in terms of retail is long dead. Many of the developments coming forward are predicated on the notion of "place" where you live, work and relax in the same physical environment. Flats on top of small start-up units or common working areas with excellent wifi surrounded by smaller retail opportunities are the new models.

    Public services are looking at "hubs" where all public services are co-located and access to one part of the public sector equals access to them all.

    The next thing to go will be the traditional suburb - horrendously outmoded and ill-suited to a world where there will be less requirement to travel or commute but where social interaction will still be needed.

    This looks very similar to the Garden City movement founded by Sir Ebenezer Howard. Letchworth was the first Garden City with Welwyn GC following behind.
    Odd that he was, I think, a clerk in Parliament before he became a town planner!
    Letchworth almost works well, it is still an oddity with its own act of parliament, http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukla/1995/2/enacted

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,383
    matt said:

    stodge said:


    Cities for living in. Essential development.

    Indeed - the notion of regeneration of city centres purely in terms of retail is long dead. Many of the developments coming forward are predicated on the notion of "place" where you live, work and relax in the same physical environment. Flats on top of small start-up units or common working areas with excellent wifi surrounded by smaller retail opportunities are the new models.

    Public services are looking at "hubs" where all public services are co-located and access to one part of the public sector equals access to them all.

    The next thing to go will be the traditional suburb - horrendously outmoded and ill-suited to a world where there will be less requirement to travel or commute but where social interaction will still be needed.

    stodge said:


    Cities for living in. Essential development.

    Indeed - the notion of regeneration of city centres purely in terms of retail is long dead. Many of the developments coming forward are predicated on the notion of "place" where you live, work and relax in the same physical environment. Flats on top of small start-up units or common working areas with excellent wifi surrounded by smaller retail opportunities are the new models.

    Public services are looking at "hubs" where all public services are co-located and access to one part of the public sector equals access to them all.

    The next thing to go will be the traditional suburb - horrendously outmoded and ill-suited to a world where there will be less requirement to travel or commute but where social interaction will still be needed.

    This looks very similar to the Garden City movement founded by Sir Ebenezer Howard. Letchworth was the first Garden City with Welwyn GC following behind.
    I used to live near Letchworth. The highlight of the place is Britain's first roundabout. It's spectacularly, po-facedly dull, as is WGC. Perhaps that's just a function of all garden cities.
    I rather like both towns. Letchworth now allows pubs and licensed restaurants, making it more pleasant.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    stodge said:

    AndyJS said:

    Another excellent state of the nation John Harris article.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/07/theresa-may-berks-bucks-thames-valley-tory-austerity

    "With Brexit eating the Tories up, any notion of how to address such modern issues as the state of local public services, the migration of consumer spending online or our awful public transport now seems to be beyond their collective grasp; by way of ideas, all they have to cling on to is the old ideal of the property-owning democracy, which has long since shut out people under 40, and thus proved to be not very democratic at all."

    Yes, it's an excellent piece and a decent reflection of how it is in many parts of supposedly affluent south and south east England and the notion they are becoming part of the London megacity.

    This was the line which resonated with me:

    "Maybe the die was cast 40 years ago, when leading Tories embraced the credo of market fundamentalism and began to forget about civic pride and active government"

    2008 was as existential a crisis for the economic model as the 1970s. The answer then was to repudiate Butskellism in favour of monetarism. The response to 2008 was austerity and even that has been discredited leaving Corbyn's socialism the only "new" thinking in town.

    So many of our issues start from the economic model which is still rooted in the notions of the 80s.We need to change our thinking of how the economy works to benefit society and how government should work to actually provide good government for all.

    It's all very well to criticise austerity but what about the national debt which has recently reached 2 trillion?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    isam said:

    @AlastairMeeks mentioned that Kippers tend to live by the sea, or people that live by the sea tend to be kippers...

    https://unherd.com/2019/04/why-lifes-no-beach-by-the-seaside/

    If you've not seen it, there's a brilliant long read in the FT about this from a little while back:

    https://twitter.com/sarahoconnor_/status/1011360985217748992

    I wrote a piece on this subject last year myself:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/04/10/flotsam-and-jetsam-britains-quiet-coastal-disaster/
    Without wanting to go over old ground...

    The people described in these deadbeat coastal towns, suffering from anxiety, loneliness and depression, voted quite strongly for Brexit, perhaps as a cry for help, or at least to feel they were slightly empowered... they won, and the rich kids said "Just kidding"

    So what are the people who wish to ignore them going to do for them?
    I'd be more convinced by this argument if there were the slightest evidence that Leaver politicians see them as anything other than props. Moreover, the problems these towns face are the problems of failure, not success, while Brexit was a vote against the problems of success.

    There are no easy answers as to what to do about such places. Brexit doesn't even start to ask the right or even any relevant questions.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Mr. B2, a straight revocation will delight the Commons.

    And plant the seeds for the rise of the far right, I fear. Teaching voters they can and will be ignored by the political class is a damned silly game to play.

    If we No Deal Brexit the far right will rise due to the economic dislocation.

    I think you overstate the impact of staying in the EU as it is something that is the status quo. The BNP and UKIP will always be at the margins and the new Brexit party is a blank canvass, which I doubt is as potent as some advocates suggest.

    The voters have not been ignored, article 50 was initiated, the problem is the Deal or No Deal is inferior to membership of the EU. People who support Brexit always say that lowering the potential economic growth of the economy long-term does not matter until it hits them in some way. It is time to stop this lunatic Brexit nonsense and Revoke Article 50.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Anazina, there's a lot further right than Francois.

    Mr. Recidivist, the 'not as bad as the Third Reich' approach is damning with faint praise.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    .... However, I do not believe should a Corbyn led Labour government come to power that there is the remotest prospect of antisemitism influencing any policy that they might consider or pursue, or of the lives of Jewish people in the UK being adversely impacted in any way....

    That's not what many Jewish people think. They are seriously worried.
    Here’s another one this week: Labour group whose President is John McDonnell calling for the Jewish Labour Movement to be kicked out, because they’re funded by Israeli Intelligence. Says any allegations of antisemitism by the likes of Luciana Berger are just made up by supporters of austerity and egged on by the Tory Press.
    https://labourrep.com/blog/2019/4/8/jlm-stabs-labour-in-the-back

    But definitely not an institutional problem with antisemitism.
    I liked this bit:

    For instance [the Jewish Labour Movement] claims that, “Our parliamentary chair, Luciana Berger, [who] was driven out of the Party.” Let us be clear. Luciana Berger left the Party of her own accord.

    Much like the Jews who left 1930s Germany of their own accord.
    You think Luciana Berger was going to be rounded up and put in a concentration camp?
    Do you think anyone thought in 1930s Germany that for Jews the alternative to leaving was death camps?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2019
    stodge said:


    Cities for living in. Essential development.

    Indeed - the notion of regeneration of city centres purely in terms of retail is long dead. Many of the developments coming forward are predicated on the notion of "place" where you live, work and relax in the same physical environment. Flats on top of small start-up units or common working areas with excellent wifi surrounded by smaller retail opportunities are the new models.

    Public services are looking at "hubs" where all public services are co-located and access to one part of the public sector equals access to them all.

    The next thing to go will be the traditional suburb - horrendously outmoded and ill-suited to a world where there will be less requirement to travel or commute but where social interaction will still be needed.

    Isn't there a danger it could lead to more rather than less isolation of different types of people from each other? At the moment, with people travelling from their home to work, you get a certain amount of mixing between people. But if, say, all the middle-class professionals live in luxury flats in a town/city centre where they also work, and everyone else lives somewhere else, you'd get less interaction between people because those professionals would just walk down the street from their homes to their workplace. I think this may already be happening in parts of London.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,383
    AndyJS said:

    The problems of seaside towns isn't all that new. I remember reading about it in the Almanac of British Politics in about 1999. Hastings was mentioned as an example of a place where people on welfare benefits tended to congregate, so we've had at least 20 years to think about it.

    I lived in St. Leonards on Sea in the early nineties. It was hideous. Half the dwellings were derelict, and most of the shops were junk shops of various kinds, or run down grocers. What I remember above all were the piles of dog shit everywhere. You'd see where old people had stuck their zimmer frames into the dog shit, and there would be trails of it in and out of the shops. I worked next to Warrior Square where all the tramps would congregate during the day, knocking back cans of strong cider and special brew, and lying in pools of their own piss. Hastings was very similar.

    But, I have to say Hastings and St. Leonards are way better today than they were then. Hastings Old Town is rather magnificent.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Taxman, revoking a referendum result is not the status quo, nor is the EU a static organisation. For both ideological and purely mechanical reasons, it trends towards integration. And every step down that path will be one pace further away from what the people voted for. Every change will rankle.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    stodge said:


    Cities for living in. Essential development.

    Indeed - the notion of regeneration of city centres purely in terms of retail is long dead. Many of the developments coming forward are predicated on the notion of "place" where you live, work and relax in the same physical environment. Flats on top of small start-up units or common working areas with excellent wifi surrounded by smaller retail opportunities are the new models.

    Public services are looking at "hubs" where all public services are co-located and access to one part of the public sector equals access to them all.

    The next thing to go will be the traditional suburb - horrendously outmoded and ill-suited to a world where there will be less requirement to travel or commute but where social interaction will still be needed.

    Yes suburbia is due a major rethink. Certainly the old hubs of suburbia like the big estate pubs are dead or dying. We need to define how we live in a modern world and build to that
    In other words Milton Keynes might be in trouble.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    edited April 2019

    It's unthinkable that a future PM would have invited IRA terrorists into parliament in the immediate aftermath of MPs and their wives being maimed and killed by the IRA, or laid wreaths at the graves of terrorist murderers, or that a future Chancellor would display in his office a plaque dedicated to Bobby Sands and other IRA terrorists, or that Labour MPs would be driven out of the party because they are Jewish. You need to adjust your view of what is unthinkable.

    The fact that JC and JM spent years actively pushing causes such as United Ireland and Free Palestine, and in the process said and did some unsavoury things, and mixed with some unsavoury people, is one thing.

    It is quite another to believe that a Labour government led by them, here and now in 2019, would in practice represent a serious threat to the Jewish community in Britain.

    Do you really believe that? I mean, can you give me an example of something you think they might do to discriminate against or persecute Jews in Britain?

    Serious question. Because if you can point to something, and it rings true to me, Labour will not be getting my vote.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,383

    Mr. Taxman, revoking a referendum result is not the status quo, nor is the EU a static organisation. For both ideological and purely mechanical reasons, it trends towards integration. And every step down that path will be one pace further away from what the people voted for. Every change will rankle.

    If I supported economic and political integration, then I'd accept that any alternative to the EU must be inferior. But I don't.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    isam said:

    isam said:

    @AlastairMeeks mentioned that Kippers tend to live by the sea, or people that live by the sea tend to be kippers...

    https://unherd.com/2019/04/why-lifes-no-beach-by-the-seaside/

    If you've not seen it, there's a brilliant long read in the FT about this from a little while back:

    https://twitter.com/sarahoconnor_/status/1011360985217748992

    I wrote a piece on this subject last year myself:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/04/10/flotsam-and-jetsam-britains-quiet-coastal-disaster/
    Without wanting to go over old ground...

    The people described in these deadbeat coastal towns, suffering from anxiety, loneliness and depression, voted quite strongly for Brexit, perhaps as a cry for help, or at least to feel they were slightly empowered... they won, and the rich kids said "Just kidding"

    So what are the people who wish to ignore them going to do for them?
    Well they should do something to address the problems, Brexit would just exacerbate them. Stopping Brexit via Revoke or offering a new referendum should be paired with a commitment to new policies to address the real problems
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    If the EU agree a flexible extension May will try and sell this as as the sooner we agree a deal the sooner we can leave and dump the problem onto MPs.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. F, quite. That's the strategic decision.

    There's a risk of serious political ructions because the political class decided to offer the electorate a choice without contemplating what would happen if those pesky voters wanted the 'wrong' option.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    @AlastairMeeks mentioned that Kippers tend to live by the sea, or people that live by the sea tend to be kippers...

    https://unherd.com/2019/04/why-lifes-no-beach-by-the-seaside/

    If you've not seen it, there's a brilliant long read in the FT about this from a little while back:

    https://twitter.com/sarahoconnor_/status/1011360985217748992

    I wrote a piece on this subject last year myself:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/04/10/flotsam-and-jetsam-britains-quiet-coastal-disaster/
    Without wanting to go over old ground...

    The people described in these deadbeat coastal towns, suffering from anxiety, loneliness and depression, voted quite strongly for Brexit, perhaps as a cry for help, or at least to feel they were slightly empowered... they won, and the rich kids said "Just kidding"

    So what are the people who wish to ignore them going to do for them?
    I'd be more convinced by this argument if there were the slightest evidence that Leaver politicians see them as anything other than props. Moreover, the problems these towns face are the problems of failure, not success, while Brexit was a vote against the problems of success.

    There are no easy answers as to what to do about such places. Brexit doesn't even start to ask the right or even any relevant questions.
    They are people who have been dealt a rough hand, feel utterly powerless, and the one time they win, the establishment ignores them. You talk about Leavers having to break bread with those who lost in 2016, but what is being offered to these people, who are the real losers? The symbolism of winning might well have made a difference to their lives that fiscal policies never could.

    I don't think it is credible to keep blaming everything on a handful of Leave politicians, whilst ignoring the "moderates" who want to overturn the result, and whom are far more numerous, that promised to respect it and haven't.

    They're all in it together, to paraphrase a phrase.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    nico67 said:

    If the EU agree a flexible extension May will try and sell this as as the sooner we agree a deal the sooner we can leave and dump the problem onto MPs.

    awesome "leadership" again from TM..

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    Sean_F said:

    AndyJS said:

    The problems of seaside towns isn't all that new. I remember reading about it in the Almanac of British Politics in about 1999. Hastings was mentioned as an example of a place where people on welfare benefits tended to congregate, so we've had at least 20 years to think about it.

    I lived in St. Leonards on Sea in the early nineties. It was hideous. Half the dwellings were derelict, and most of the shops were junk shops of various kinds, or run down grocers. What I remember above all were the piles of dog shit everywhere. You'd see where old people had stuck their zimmer frames into the dog shit, and there would be trails of it in and out of the shops. I worked next to Warrior Square where all the tramps would congregate during the day, knocking back cans of strong cider and special brew, and lying in pools of their own piss. Hastings was very similar.

    But, I have to say Hastings and St. Leonards are way better today than they were then. Hastings Old Town is rather magnificent.
    Parliament published a report on coastal towns just last week.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Mr. Taxman, revoking a referendum result is not the status quo, nor is the EU a static organisation. For both ideological and purely mechanical reasons, it trends towards integration. And every step down that path will be one pace further away from what the people voted for. Every change will rankle.

    It was a non- binding Referendum. In other words an opinion poll with as much legal legitimacy. People normally choose an option different to one that is currently on offer because it is better. Brexit is an option that will deliver nothing but pain! Time to Revoke A50.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,871
    AndyJS said:

    stodge said:


    Cities for living in. Essential development.

    Indeed - the notion of regeneration of city centres purely in terms of retail is long dead. Many of the developments coming forward are predicated on the notion of "place" where you live, work and relax in the same physical environment. Flats on top of small start-up units or common working areas with excellent wifi surrounded by smaller retail opportunities are the new models.

    Public services are looking at "hubs" where all public services are co-located and access to one part of the public sector equals access to them all.

    The next thing to go will be the traditional suburb - horrendously outmoded and ill-suited to a world where there will be less requirement to travel or commute but where social interaction will still be needed.

    Yes suburbia is due a major rethink. Certainly the old hubs of suburbia like the big estate pubs are dead or dying. We need to define how we live in a modern world and build to that
    In other words Milton Keynes might be in trouble.
    I am sure that I read recently it was one of the fastest growing parts of the UK. It certainly has some of the largest constituencies by population.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2019

    isam said:

    isam said:

    @AlastairMeeks mentioned that Kippers tend to live by the sea, or people that live by the sea tend to be kippers...

    https://unherd.com/2019/04/why-lifes-no-beach-by-the-seaside/

    If you've not seen it, there's a brilliant long read in the FT about this from a little while back:

    https://twitter.com/sarahoconnor_/status/1011360985217748992

    I wrote a piece on this subject last year myself:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/04/10/flotsam-and-jetsam-britains-quiet-coastal-disaster/
    Without wanting to go over old ground...

    The people described in these deadbeat coastal towns, suffering from anxiety, loneliness and depression, voted quite strongly for Brexit, perhaps as a cry for help, or at least to feel they were slightly empowered... they won, and the rich kids said "Just kidding"

    So what are the people who wish to ignore them going to do for them?
    Well they should do something to address the problems, Brexit would just exacerbate them. Stopping Brexit via Revoke or offering a new referendum should be paired with a commitment to new policies to address the real problems
    Being on the winning side in the referendum gave people who are utterly powerless a small taste of success for once. I think that is worth more than the negligible difference some govt scheme or other might make to their lives.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited April 2019

    Brexit is an option that will deliver nothing but pain!

    Pundits and politicians say that about voting for blue or red at every election.

    It's a pile of hot binary garbage.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Taxman, the electorate was told pre-vote that its decision would be final and would be implemented, and, post-vote, MPs voted overwhelmingly to respect that and trigger Article 50.

    Saying "It was all just pretend" now is as credible as wandering into a Tunisian wreath-laying ceremony and claiming you were "present but not involved".
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,383

    Mr. Taxman, revoking a referendum result is not the status quo, nor is the EU a static organisation. For both ideological and purely mechanical reasons, it trends towards integration. And every step down that path will be one pace further away from what the people voted for. Every change will rankle.

    It was a non- binding Referendum. In other words an opinion poll with as much legal legitimacy. People normally choose an option different to one that is currently on offer because it is better. Brexit is an option that will deliver nothing but pain! Time to Revoke A50.
    I don't recall any politician saying "this is just an opinion poll" back in 2016. They gave us the impression that the vote was rather important.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    kinabalu said:

    It's unthinkable that a future PM would have invited IRA terrorists into parliament in the immediate aftermath of MPs and their wives being maimed and killed by the IRA, or laid wreaths at the graves of terrorist murderers, or that a future Chancellor would display in his office a plaque dedicated to Bobby Sands and other IRA terrorists, or that Labour MPs would be driven out of the party because they are Jewish. You need to adjust your view of what is unthinkable.

    The fact that JC and JM spent years actively pushing causes such as United Ireland and Free Palestine, and in the process said and did some unsavoury things, and mixed with some unsavoury people, is one thing.

    It is quite another to believe that a Labour government led by them, here and now in 2019, would in practice represent a serious threat to the Jewish community in Britain.

    Do you really believe that? I mean, can you give me an example of something you think they might do to discriminate against or persecute Jews in Britain?

    Serious question. Because if you can point to something, and it rings true to me, Labour will not be getting my vote.
    I think the dangers are a normalisation of anti-semitic attitudes and behaviour, leading to an increased level of harassment and violence against Jews, and the merging of anti-semitic themes with anti-plutocrat rhetoric (the two are very closely linked). Something like 1930s America.

    But I'm not Jewish, so you really need to address your question to someone who is. All I know is that Jewish acquaintances are genuinely worried. The fact that we've already seen Jewish MPs driven out of Labour suggests to me that those worries are not unreasonable.
  • Mr. Taxman, the electorate was told pre-vote that its decision would be final and would be implemented, and, post-vote, MPs voted overwhelmingly to respect that and trigger Article 50.

    Saying "It was all just pretend" now is as credible as wandering into a Tunisian wreath-laying ceremony and claiming you were "present but not involved".

    The electorate was also told No Deal wouldn't happen, we held all the cards etc.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    TGOHF said:

    nico67 said:

    If the EU agree a flexible extension May will try and sell this as as the sooner we agree a deal the sooner we can leave and dump the problem onto MPs.

    awesome "leadership" again from TM..

    Mark my words . Her mantra will be .

    The EU has offered the UK a flexible extension which means we can leave as quickly as a deal is agreed . It’s upto MPs now to agree a deal so that we can leave before the EU elections . Blah blah !

    And MPs will continue to fight over their preferred option, the scorched earth policy will pit the ERG against the Peoples Vote . Indeed now I think there’s likely to be even fewer Tories backing the deal and they’ll hope to remove May during the extension.

    I’m an ardent Remainer but just want a deal and an orderly exit . Sadly I think it’s not going to happen . The divisions in the country now are worse than in 2016 . It’s tragic that this is the case .
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    RobD said:

    Depends how many of them are dual nationals, I suppose.

    Don't think the Donald had that level of info. I think he was addressing them as Jews. Speaking to their "Jewish Identity". Seems a bit dodgy.

    Then again, say you are a Brit who is long time settled in Australia, taken citizenship etc, so you are of Australian nationality, and you get talking to an Aussie guy and he raises the subject of this ongoing Brexit shambles and he says to you -

    "Shit, your Prime Minister is up the creek without one, mate, isn't she?"

    Problematical or not? Is it even a relevant comparison?

    Or are we risking paralysis by analysis?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Mr. Taxman, the electorate was told pre-vote that its decision would be final and would be implemented, and, post-vote, MPs voted overwhelmingly to respect that and trigger Article 50.

    Saying "It was all just pretend" now is as credible as wandering into a Tunisian wreath-laying ceremony and claiming you were "present but not involved".

    The electorate was also told No Deal wouldn't happen, we held all the cards etc.
    And that there would be 5 million unemployed blah blah.

  • TGOHF said:

    Mr. Taxman, the electorate was told pre-vote that its decision would be final and would be implemented, and, post-vote, MPs voted overwhelmingly to respect that and trigger Article 50.

    Saying "It was all just pretend" now is as credible as wandering into a Tunisian wreath-laying ceremony and claiming you were "present but not involved".

    The electorate was also told No Deal wouldn't happen, we held all the cards etc.
    And that there would be 5 million unemployed blah blah.

    No, I'm talking about specifically what Leavers said.
This discussion has been closed.