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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay makes most of the front pages this morning as reports continue of efforts to oust her
Given the fact that we could be seeing two separate sets of elections next month, the locals on May 2nd and the Euros on May 23rd it is hard to see how TMay a can be pushed out before then.
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At no point has it anything to do with the EU itself...
Very much a case that the shadow he is chasing of the person to blame is the shadow he himself is casting.
On Friday they are about to deliver a 21st century fall of Singapore.
I really would like to put them all on TV and start to ask them whether they want tariffs / no tariffs and then step by step ask them what they would do next as a couple of economists outline what would happen...
"Was there a man dismayed?
Not though the soldier knew
Someone had blundered."
Ditto No Deal Brexit.
You can lay her going this year at 1.1 on betfair. Still feels like no one wants to take over before we actually Brexit.
They'll have the whip removed and the cancer of the ERG will be removed from the Tory party.
We really need a wholesale clear out.
1. She resigns of her own free will as PM, persuaded to do so by the cabinet.
2. Sufficient about-to-retire Tory MPs vote against her in a Vote of Confidence in the government. The number required is currently 3, if the DUP vote with the government.
3. The 1922 Committee can be persuaded to change their rule about needing 12 months between confidence motions in the party leader.
Precisely.
The public needs to have this repeated over and over. The Brexiteers have betrayed brexit. No one else.
If you don't vote with the government in a VONC that's it.
Lidington to revoke on Friday.
Yes, I understand the 'mechanism' presents a problem, but in practice I think ways would be found.
As members and still paying full membership, have we no right to ask where the money goes?
Membership confers both costs and benefits, two of the benefits being to elect MEPs and appoint a Commissioner. The major cost being, umm, the cost.
So if we stay in and pay our money, we get to appoint our share of the people who run the club - whether the rest of the members like it or not.
The difference here is that there is no plot to remove May, just a desire that there ought to be one.
As an aside, I am by no means convinced the Tories face armageddon at the polls.
Enjoying CUKs work so far.
But what did for IDS was the Tories' dismal showing in Brent East, where a number of Conservative voters deserted to the Liberal Democrats and Sarah Tether pulled off a stunning win. There was a general feeling that while Labour had suffered horrendously the Tories were not benefitting and IDS was the problem.
(It's interesting to note the three previous Tory candidates in Brent East were David Gauke, Mark Francois and Damian Green.)
Unless you are the SNP and (to an extent) the Lib Dems who were elected on different platforms no MP should have voted against May's deal unless they were confident that there was an alternative Brexit that commanded a majority in the House. Which there wasn't. The conduct of our political class has been shameful and the damage to our democracy profound.
Here is a contemporary report of the 2003 local elections.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2994877.stm
Plus Labour's manifesto was clear and gave Labour cover to oppose Mrs May's deal.
They just make themselves look like loons.
So we're no right to ask where the money goes? Who has that right?
It actually is turning into Game of Thrones ...
"On your knees varlet, and obey your rightful Lord." quoth Sir Macron of Gaul.
As for the challenge to May it can't be proved one way or the other that Mayites didn't trigger the contest early knowing full well a later challenge could prove more dangerous.
Having said all that that tactics of some within the ERG have been baffling or naive (take your pick). They have throughout under-estimated the strength and low cunning of the anti-Brexit forces ranged against them.
Like opera it’s something people pretend to like to look clever but actually don’t.
I hear the European voices asking if they really want the hassle of having a crop of box fresh screaming angry morons elected as British MEPs on top of a further spell of "I hate the EU", "No, I hate them more" positioning for the Tory leadership country.
They really should tell us to do one.
Says everyone not a Conservative MP.
As a full paying and voting member we cannot be restrained anymore than any other member. The ECJ would have a field day
As for Labour they committed themselves to honouring the Brexit vote. If they hadn't even May might have got a majority. Of course they had their own ideas of how Brexit should be done but those ideas are only relevant if there is a majority in the House for them. Which there isn't. It did not give them cover to stop Brexit or let the morons stop it either.
Such an approach would also have brought across enough Labour MPs so as to be able not to worry about their remainers.
However May's Deal is based on red lines that many moderates don't like - for instance Freedom of Movement isn't a problem for some (including leave voters on here).
Oh and the purpose of the opposition is to oppose which means they can vote against if they don't like the deal for any reason.
The ERG don't have any of those excuses.
Edit: Also yes I could have cheered (if I wasn't laughing so much) when I heard the name.
I'd guess that they couldn't register "The Independent Group" as a party name with the Electoral Commission though, as it could be confused with the description commonly used by candidates of no party affiliation. Memories of the "Literal Democrats" that led to the law on party name registration.
And that report doesn't undermine what I said. The expectations were more seats and a poor showing in the popular vote, which happened. Allowing for the fact the Tory chairman of the time was running around doing expectations management of 'a net gain of around thirty seats' (what an idiot that person was, isn't it a good job she was never promoted to high office) anything less than 300 was regarded as terminal for IDS. Admittedly 566 was more than that minimum, there was no sign of a 1990s style breakthrough that would put them on the road to power.
https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1115889251990810629
They deserve it.
None of them will get the joke, but most of Farage's supporters (and all of the media) will be laughing out loud at it.
I fear Change UK is a flop as a name.
State of play - no May Brexit but....
The EU want us out.
Winning an election on remain is impossible - not the case 3 years ago.
Wet Conservatism is dead as an electoral force.
It was the 90 votes of ERG wot swung it for Remain not the massed ranks of Labour, LD, SNP et al.
So too will end the independence hopes of those knavish Jocks who will be brought to heel.
Someone should write a book about it. Damn that George R R Martin.
CUKs sound a bit, er... well...
"Sealioning (also spelled sea-lioning and sea lioning) is a type of trolling or harassment which consists of pursuing people with persistent requests for evidence or repeated questions, while maintaining a pretense of civility."