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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,162

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:
    You said Tories were ahead in 23 of last 26

    That was incorrect.

    Also there is a further COMRES tie today not showing on there
    Labour have only led in 3 out of the last 26 until today. It's true that I accidentally included a couple of ties in the Tory column because I forgot that some of the polls were ties. The correct figure is 20 Tory leads not 23, but making a big thing about 20 instead of 23 seems a bit silly to me.
    Nearly as silly as not including todays tie and Lab lead or going back only as far as the string of Tory leads or ties that started on 30th January but excluding the Survation that came out after that.

    I make it 20 Tory leads out of 29 from your random date not 23 of 26

    Plus more importantly the trend is your friend. Labour ahead or tied in 3 of last 5!!!
    Every poll has another hung parliament and makes Corbyn PM with LD or SNP support, the only difference whether the Tories are largest party or not
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    o/t here's one even @Casino might understand

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRtsgOYJoD4

    Winning hearts and minds with an SLR again I see.....
    Oh I see!!!

    The constant SLR thing is an insult! Jeez you are subtle. Great show.

    Why not take it back a bit, say Lee Enfield? Hit it hard.
    The Short Lee Enfield might be a bit modern for the average Brexit supporter
    We had the .22 chambered LE in the Combined Cadet Force at my school. It was very accurate (I could shoot good groups at 100m with it at age 14!) but it took an inordinately long amount of time to get the Parker-Hales "competition" sight zeroed. I wouldn't have fancied trying to do it while facing a Zug of rampaging Fallschirmjager in WW2.

    We also had a 7.62 Mosin-Nagant (fuck knows where that came from) but no ammo or firing pin for it so I never got a go on that 500m+ man killer.
    You were obviously destined for the top from an early age. I hated CCF only memorable for one exercise where the venerable Regimental Sergeant Major had issued live rounds to the DS, quickly noticed by said DS,
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The one currently workable plan for Leave commands the active support of one in eight voters:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1115929467619291142

    Those moaning about the idea of a second referendum should note that there are almost as many Lib Dem voters in this poll as active supporters of the government-approved plan for Brexit.

    So no Brexit option gets anywhere near 50%
    Which is why no one advocating Brexit (amazes me such people still exist) wants another referendum
    Remain/Revoke only gets a third of the vote too, No Deal only a quarter of voter support, the median voter still wants Brexit with a Deal
    You can't have a median of non-ordinal categories.
    You can, there is comfortably more support for all the Brexit options combined than Remain/Revoke
    That's not what median means
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    The £ rising on the currency markets
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    IanB2 said:

    The £ rising on the currency markets

    Still rangebound 1.30-33. Broken out on the downside once over the past few weeks, quickly recovered.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,162

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The one currently workable plan for Leave commands the active support of one in eight voters:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1115929467619291142

    Those moaning about the idea of a second referendum should note that there are almost as many Lib Dem voters in this poll as active supporters of the government-approved plan for Brexit.

    So no Brexit option gets anywhere near 50%
    Which is why no one advocating Brexit (amazes me such people still exist) wants another referendum
    Remain/Revoke only gets a third of the vote too, No Deal only a quarter of voter support, the median voter still wants Brexit with a Deal
    You can't have a median of non-ordinal categories.
    You can, there is comfortably more support for all the Brexit options combined than Remain/Revoke
    That's not what median means
    It is what the middle voter wants ie Brexit with a Deal
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:
    You said Tories were ahead in 23 of last 26

    That was incorrect.

    Also there is a further COMRES tie today not showing on there
    Labour have only led in 3 out of the last 26 until today. It's true that I accidentally included a couple of ties in the Tory column because I forgot that some of the polls were ties. The correct figure is 20 Tory leads not 23, but making a big thing about 20 instead of 23 seems a bit silly to me.
    Nearly as silly as not including todays tie and Lab lead or going back only as far as the string of Tory leads or ties that started on 30th January but excluding the Survation that came out after that.

    I make it 20 Tory leads out of 29 from your random date not 23 of 26

    Plus more importantly the trend is your friend. Labour ahead or tied in 3 of last 5!!!
    Yay! Stupid Communist will soon be able to make all your wishes come true!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:
    You said Tories were ahead in 23 of last 26

    That was incorrect.

    Also there is a further COMRES tie today not showing on there
    Labour have only led in 3 out of the last 26 until today. It's true that I accidentally included a couple of ties in the Tory column because I forgot that some of the polls were ties. The correct figure is 20 Tory leads not 23, but making a big thing about 20 instead of 23 seems a bit silly to me.
    Nearly as silly as not including todays tie and Lab lead or going back only as far as the string of Tory leads or ties that started on 30th January but excluding the Survation that came out after that.

    I make it 20 Tory leads out of 29 from your random date not 23 of 26

    Plus more importantly the trend is your friend. Labour ahead or tied in 3 of last 5!!!
    Every poll has another hung parliament and makes Corbyn PM with LD or SNP support, the only difference whether the Tories are largest party or not
    Given the ongoing transition from class-based voting to age/education-based voting patterns, as reflected through our capricious lottery of a voting system, predictions such as that are surely even more unreliable than usual?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The one currently workable plan for Leave commands the active support of one in eight voters:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1115929467619291142

    Those moaning about the idea of a second referendum should note that there are almost as many Lib Dem voters in this poll as active supporters of the government-approved plan for Brexit.

    So no Brexit option gets anywhere near 50%
    Which is why no one advocating Brexit (amazes me such people still exist) wants another referendum
    Remain/Revoke only gets a third of the vote too, No Deal only a quarter of voter support, the median voter still wants Brexit with a Deal
    You can't have a median of non-ordinal categories.
    You can, there is comfortably more support for all the Brexit options combined than Remain/Revoke
    That's not what median means
    It is what the middle voter wants ie Brexit with a Deal
    And how are you ordering the voters to work out who's in the middle?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,162
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:
    You said Tories were ahead in 23 of last 26

    That was incorrect.

    Also there is a further COMRES tie today not showing on there
    Labour have only led in 3 out of the last 26 until today. It's true that I accidentally included a couple of ties in the Tory column because I forgot that some of the polls were ties. The correct figure is 20 Tory leads not 23, but making a big thing about 20 instead of 23 seems a bit silly to me.
    Nearly as silly as not including todays tie and Lab lead or going back only as far as the string of Tory leads or ties that started on 30th January but excluding the Survation that came out after that.

    I make it 20 Tory leads out of 29 from your random date not 23 of 26

    Plus more importantly the trend is your friend. Labour ahead or tied in 3 of last 5!!!
    Every poll has another hung parliament and makes Corbyn PM with LD or SNP support, the only difference whether the Tories are largest party or not
    Given the ongoing transition from class-based voting to age/education-based voting patterns, as reflected through our capricious lottery of a voting system, predictions such as that are surely even more unreliable than usual?
    Well if you want to predict a Tory or Labour landslide be my guest, not what I am getting on the doorsteps which is voters fed up with both main parties
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The one currently workable plan for Leave commands the active support of one in eight voters:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1115929467619291142

    Those moaning about the idea of a second referendum should note that there are almost as many Lib Dem voters in this poll as active supporters of the government-approved plan for Brexit.

    So no Brexit option gets anywhere near 50%
    Which is why no one advocating Brexit (amazes me such people still exist) wants another referendum
    Remain/Revoke only gets a third of the vote too, No Deal only a quarter of voter support, the median voter still wants Brexit with a Deal
    You can't have a median of non-ordinal categories.
    You can, there is comfortably more support for all the Brexit options combined than Remain/Revoke
    That's not what median means
    It is what the middle voter wants ie Brexit with a Deal
    That would also be true if 49% want no deal, 2% want Brexit with a Deal, and 49% want revoke.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,383
    DavidL said:

    The sort of headline that must make orthodontists wince in north London: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47878341

    Stock building seems to have made little difference to the headline numbers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,162

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The one currently workable plan for Leave commands the active support of one in eight voters:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1115929467619291142

    Those moaning about the idea of a second referendum should note that there are almost as many Lib Dem voters in this poll as active supporters of the government-approved plan for Brexit.

    So no Brexit option gets anywhere near 50%
    Which is why no one advocating Brexit (amazes me such people still exist) wants another referendum
    Remain/Revoke only gets a third of the vote too, No Deal only a quarter of voter support, the median voter still wants Brexit with a Deal
    You can't have a median of non-ordinal categories.
    You can, there is comfortably more support for all the Brexit options combined than Remain/Revoke
    That's not what median means
    It is what the middle voter wants ie Brexit with a Deal
    And how are you ordering the voters to work out who's in the middle?
    Remain/Revoke more than No Deal, No Deal plus Brexit with a Deal more than Remain/Revoke
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    o/t here's one even @Casino might understand

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRtsgOYJoD4

    Winning hearts and minds with an SLR again I see.....
    Oh I see!!!

    The constant SLR thing is an insult! Jeez you are subtle. Great show.

    Why not take it back a bit, say Lee Enfield? Hit it hard.
    The Short Lee Enfield might be a bit modern for the average Brexit supporter
    We had the .22 chambered LE in the Combined Cadet Force at my school. It was very accurate (I could shoot good groups at 100m with it at age 14!) but it took an inordinately long amount of time to get the Parker-Hales "competition" sight zeroed. I wouldn't have fancied trying to do it while facing a Zug of rampaging Fallschirmjager in WW2.

    We also had a 7.62 Mosin-Nagant (fuck knows where that came from) but no ammo or firing pin for it so I never got a go on that 500m+ man killer.
    Wasn't there some criticism of our army or marines training that American soldiers practised firing while running whereas ours looked like they were rehearsing for Bisley which was less practicable if the enemy showed any inclination to shoot back?
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:
    You said Tories were ahead in 23 of last 26

    That was incorrect.

    Also there is a further COMRES tie today not showing on there
    Labour have only led in 3 out of the last 26 until today. It's true that I accidentally included a couple of ties in the Tory column because I forgot that some of the polls were ties. The correct figure is 20 Tory leads not 23, but making a big thing about 20 instead of 23 seems a bit silly to me.
    Nearly as silly as not including todays tie and Lab lead or going back only as far as the string of Tory leads or ties that started on 30th January but excluding the Survation that came out after that.

    I make it 20 Tory leads out of 29 from your random date not 23 of 26

    Plus more importantly the trend is your friend. Labour ahead or tied in 3 of last 5!!!
    Every poll has another hung parliament and makes Corbyn PM with LD or SNP support, the only difference whether the Tories are largest party or not
    Given the ongoing transition from class-based voting to age/education-based voting patterns, as reflected through our capricious lottery of a voting system, predictions such as that are surely even more unreliable than usual?
    Well if you want to predict a Tory or Labour landslide be my guest, not what I am getting on the doorsteps which is voters fed up with both main parties
    Genuine annoyance with every one in politics...
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    If France do pull the trigger I wonder if they go hardball, June 30th, no longer, agree cross party, no deal or revoke. No further delays.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    o/t here's one even @Casino might understand

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRtsgOYJoD4

    Winning hearts and minds with an SLR again I see.....
    Oh I see!!!

    The constant SLR thing is an insult! Jeez you are subtle. Great show.

    Why not take it back a bit, say Lee Enfield? Hit it hard.
    The Short Lee Enfield might be a bit modern for the average Brexit supporter
    We had the .22 chambered LE in the Combined Cadet Force at my school. It was very accurate (I could shoot good groups at 100m with it at age 14!) but it took an inordinately long amount of time to get the Parker-Hales "competition" sight zeroed. I wouldn't have fancied trying to do it while facing a Zug of rampaging Fallschirmjager in WW2.

    We also had a 7.62 Mosin-Nagant (fuck knows where that came from) but no ammo or firing pin for it so I never got a go on that 500m+ man killer.
    You were obviously destined for the top from an early age. I hated CCF only memorable for one exercise where the venerable Regimental Sergeant Major had issued live rounds to the DS, quickly noticed by said DS,
    Our CCF instructor had jumped at Arnhem when he was 18! He was still as hard as fucking nails in the early 80s. He once told my bemused father something along the lines of, "Your son is a c--t, but he's a funny c--t so he'll be fine."
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,383
    DavidL said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:
    You said Tories were ahead in 23 of last 26

    That was incorrect.

    Also there is a further COMRES tie today not showing on there
    Labour have only led in 3 out of the last 26 until today. It's true that I accidentally included a couple of ties in the Tory column because I forgot that some of the polls were ties. The correct figure is 20 Tory leads not 23, but making a big thing about 20 instead of 23 seems a bit silly to me.
    Nearly as silly as not including todays tie and Lab lead or going back only as far as the string of Tory leads or ties that started on 30th January but excluding the Survation that came out after that.

    I make it 20 Tory leads out of 29 from your random date not 23 of 26

    Plus more importantly the trend is your friend. Labour ahead or tied in 3 of last 5!!!
    John, we are now mid term of the most incompetent government I can recall, one totally incapable of getting its primary policy through the Commons, doesn't have a majority, has Labour back benchers passing legislation against their wishes, which regularly and consistently loses ministers (albeit mainly ones no one has ever heard of), which has an organisation within it which successfully whips against the government's own policy, who seem to have largely forgotten that they ever had any other policy, the leader of which is generally thought to have days until she resigns in ignominy and defeat and you are happy you got a tie????
    Similar to 2003-05, voters want the government out, but they don't want the Opposition in.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    A wise decision by the French. The British-particularly the English-are seen as wreckers. Who in their right mind would want wreckers in their club.

    Out with no deal is best for everyone even the English. It'll show the Union Jack waving nationalists that the country they live in isn't quite as superior as they believed it to be and it'll give them something to moan about in the dole queues of Hartlepool
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:
    You said Tories were ahead in 23 of last 26

    That was incorrect.

    Also there is a further COMRES tie today not showing on there
    Labour have only led in 3 out of the last 26 until today. It's true that I accidentally included a couple of ties in the Tory column because I forgot that some of the polls were ties. The correct figure is 20 Tory leads not 23, but making a big thing about 20 instead of 23 seems a bit silly to me.
    Nearly as silly as not including todays tie and Lab lead or going back only as far as the string of Tory leads or ties that started on 30th January but excluding the Survation that came out after that.

    I make it 20 Tory leads out of 29 from your random date not 23 of 26

    Plus more importantly the trend is your friend. Labour ahead or tied in 3 of last 5!!!
    John, we are now mid term of the most incompetent government I can recall, one totally incapable of getting its primary policy through the Commons, doesn't have a majority, has Labour back benchers passing legislation against their wishes, which regularly and consistently loses ministers (albeit mainly ones no one has ever heard of), which has an organisation within it which successfully whips against the government's own policy, who seem to have largely forgotten that they ever had any other policy, the leader of which is generally thought to have days until she resigns in ignominy and defeat and you are happy you got a tie????
    Similar to 2003-05, voters want the government out, but they don't want the Opposition in.
    I think voters would be sated by the PM out - for now.

  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:
    You said Tories were ahead in 23 of last 26

    That was incorrect.

    Also there is a further COMRES tie today not showing on there
    Labour have only led in 3 out of the last 26 until today. It's true that I accidentally included a couple of ties in the Tory column because I forgot that some of the polls were ties. The correct figure is 20 Tory leads not 23, but making a big thing about 20 instead of 23 seems a bit silly to me.
    Nearly as silly as not including todays tie and Lab lead or going back only as far as the string of Tory leads or ties that started on 30th January but excluding the Survation that came out after that.

    I make it 20 Tory leads out of 29 from your random date not 23 of 26

    Plus more importantly the trend is your friend. Labour ahead or tied in 3 of last 5!!!
    Every poll has another hung parliament and makes Corbyn PM with LD or SNP support, the only difference whether the Tories are largest party or not
    Given the ongoing transition from class-based voting to age/education-based voting patterns, as reflected through our capricious lottery of a voting system, predictions such as that are surely even more unreliable than usual?
    Well if you want to predict a Tory or Labour landslide be my guest, not what I am getting on the doorsteps which is voters fed up with both main parties
    The narrative has switched quickly to an existential threat to the Tories. Things will swing back again, but remember that at a GE, FPTP means that a relatively slim lead (5%) for one of the main parties can be translated into a large Commons majority.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    This thread is

    old

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Approaching maximum popcorn if that’s true.

    Has Macron really thought through what the first week of a no-deal Brexit looks like in France? Or in Ireland?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Scott_P said:
    Why? He looks like a vampire and is generally heard talking rubbish
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,871
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    The sort of headline that must make orthodontists wince in north London: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47878341

    Stock building seems to have made little difference to the headline numbers.
    Possibly affected the balance of payments figures, at least I hope so.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    IanB2 said:

    This thread is

    old

    How do you make your type bigger?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    Roger said:

    IanB2 said:

    This thread is

    old

    How do you make your type bigger?
    Use the code <h1 with a closing bracket
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    o/t here's one even @Casino might understand

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRtsgOYJoD4

    Winning hearts and minds with an SLR again I see.....
    Oh I see!!!

    The constant SLR thing is an insult! Jeez you are subtle. Great show.

    Why not take it back a bit, say Lee Enfield? Hit it hard.
    The Short Lee Enfield might be a bit modern for the average Brexit supporter
    We had the .22 chambered LE in the Combined Cadet Force at my school. It was very accurate (I could shoot good groups at 100m with it at age 14!) but it took an inordinately long amount of time to get the Parker-Hales "competition" sight zeroed. I wouldn't have fancied trying to do it while facing a Zug of rampaging Fallschirmjager in WW2.

    We also had a 7.62 Mosin-Nagant (fuck knows where that came from) but no ammo or firing pin for it so I never got a go on that 500m+ man killer.
    Wasn't there some criticism of our army or marines training that American soldiers practised firing while running whereas ours looked like they were rehearsing for Bisley which was less practicable if the enemy showed any inclination to shoot back?
    I don't know, but you're going to hit fuck all if you fire while running anyway. British forces have decent levels of marksmanship in my experience. Especially when you consider, unlike US forces,the vast majority of recruits come through the door with zero experience of firearms.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Roger said:

    A wise decision by the French. The British-particularly the English-are seen as wreckers. Who in their right mind would want wreckers in their club.

    Out with no deal is best for everyone even the English. It'll show the Union Jack waving nationalists that the country they live in isn't quite as superior as they believed it to be and it'll give them something to moan about in the dole queues of Hartlepool
    You seem to have forgotten de Gaulle's empty chair in your tediously one-eyed panegyric to France.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    That’s why these sort of decisions shouldn’t be up to the legislature

    So we should put it back to the people...
    Nope. The people have opined. The rest should be up to the executive
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    IanB2 said:

    Roger said:

    IanB2 said:

    This thread is

    old

    How do you make your type bigger?
    Use the code

    thanks

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,241

    OH YES, EXCELLENT!

  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Sean_F said:

    OllyT said:

    Sean_F said:


    Has anyone considered that another referendum might result in a win for Leave? Recent polling (including this morning's Kantar poll) seems pretty tight.

    If people still want to leave then that is fine what I can't see the point of us pushing on with such a massive change if people have indeed changed their minds.

    The sole reason given for proceeding these days seems to be that we voted for it 3 years ago so we must. Surely it is sensible to check whether we still want it before throwing away our current beneficial terms of membership.
    But I don't believe that you, or Lammy, or Grieve et al would regard it as "fine" if the public voted again to leave.

    What I see is a basic asymmetery. You only have to win once. I have to win again and again.
    I know I am repeating myself but I can see no point in ploughing on with Brexit if the majority are now opposed to it and the only way we are going to know that is to have a vote to see what people think 3 years on. It really doesn't affect me greatly as we decided a couple of years ago that we would prefer to move out and are in the process of doing so.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Macron doesn’t really want a long extension and would prefer a shorter one but won’t veto . If it’s a long extension he wants lots of conditions .

    The so called source for the DT is talking nonsense .
This discussion has been closed.