politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If we get to a Peterborough by-election it’s going to be a cor

NickPalmer said:

another_richard said:

Haven't the EU said they would agree a CU ?

Though the details would have to be sorted out afterwards.

Yes - they said agreement in principle would only take 2-3 days, and it would be a sensible reason to have an extension. The only problem is that if we suddenly come round to it now, that short extension will trigger the European Parliament election.

Mind you, that'd be a bit silly but hardly the end of the world - I'm not clear why everyone is so worked up about it. When UKIP won previously, eyebrows were raised for a day or so and then the agenda moved on.

If we take part in the EU elections, are we bound to make contributions for the entire next budget cycle?

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/ChassNews/status/1114289740860329985

Bring it on

williamglenn said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

another_richard said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

another_richard said:

Is washing cars and selling the Big Issue seasonal work ?

The Albanian mafia has the car wash business monopoly and the Romanians "self employed" moved on the big issue gig far before they had free movement.

Apparently Albanian's are running London's drug trade from the Gascoyne Estate in Barking., and the reason there are 2 Turkish Hairdressers and 3 Turkish restaurants in every street in Essex is laundered drug money... How did so many Albanians and Turks get to live here anyway?

Those EuroMart shops with a customer catchment area of 100 yards are assumed by everyone I know to be centres of dubious activity.

There's a long standing 24 hour hand car wash on Maryhill Road in Glasgow that always had massive queues waiting to be be serviced, been there decades.

I has always assumed it was a front for drugs. However a fried who lived nearby assured me it was the best car wash and valet in Glasgow bar none.

There used to be a bikini car wash advertised in the East End of Glasgow. Never partook of it myself so not sure of the 'front' element.

Edit: just remembered the name, Soapy Bubbles!

Did it go bust?

Tits up.

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/ChassNews/status/1114289740860329985

'EU sources said that strong conditions on any extension might be the key to persuading France to agree to avoid no deal.'


The key seems to be also on the French side the UK offering something new eg Deal plus CU by a majority vote of the Commons. However given the voting last week the likeliest outcome is the Commons would vote narrowly to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit completely at the end of next week rather than proceed to No Deal, even Lisa Nandy today said she would vote to revoke Article 50 over No Deal and as she represents a strong Leave seat and is seen as someone who might back a Brexit Deal that could prove significant especially with at least 10 Tory MPs already having voted to revoke and more MPs having voted for the revoke amendment than the No Deal amendment

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/ChassNews/status/1114289740860329985

'EU sources said that strong conditions on any extension might be the key to persuading France to agree to avoid no deal.'


The key seems to be also on the French side the UK offering something new eg Deal plus CU by a majority vote of the Commons. However given the voting last week the likeliest outcome is the Commons would vote narrowly to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit completely at the end of next week rather than proceed to No Deal, even Lisa Nandy today said she would vote to revoke Article 50 over No Deal and as she represents a strong Leave seat and is seen as someone who might back a Brexit Deal that could prove significant especially with at least 10 Tory MPs already having voted to revoke and more MPs having voted for the revoke amendment than the No Deal amendment

Would you let this man look after your grandma?

OT the Albanian drugs story earlier in this thread was accompanied (for me) by a Guardian advert for a London-based solicitor on a mere £28,000.

Richard_Tyndall said:

The_Taxman said:

Jonathan said:

Brexit. Another day gone and the light at the tunnel seems farther away than ever.

Depends how you look at it. The PM has to be seen exhausting all the potential avenues before either she kicks the can down the road with further extension or brings the matter to an end with Revocation of Article 50. No Deal is just used as a bogey man in that it is an unusable option. I could be wrong! Nothing is clear-cut in this situation but the PM and her party is bust whichever way you end it. Revoke is more survivable than No Deal, although some of the head bangers might peel off, I cannot see some Tory backbenchers or ministers leaving the party. So Revoke is more plausible than No Deal.

The problem you have is that you come from the remain side and so see Revoke as plausible and less damaging. For many on the Leave side, myself included, No Deal, whilst not the preferred result, is far less damaging to our democracy than Revoke. It is a gamble either way as we neither of us objectively know which is the less damaging route.

Frankly for the vast majority of people in the country, the Tories going bust is neither here nor there.

No deal versus revoke is not just about democracy and the inviolability of the referendum result. There are also the economic effects. If we stay in the EU, we will have lost some institutions and jobs for no benefit. If we crash out, we will have lost those same jobs, and will experience economic and logistical disruption that will be blamed on the government separately from Brexit. Of course, in a year or several, the benefits of being outside the EU (if the headbangers are correct) will start to trickle through but by then it will be too late to save the Conservative Party.

Ironically, the blue team in Opposition will be able to blame the consequences of its own Brexit policy on Prime Minister Corbyn's nationalisation of manhole covers and subsidy of Venezuelan oil imports.

DecrepitJohnL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The_Taxman said:

Jonathan said:

Brexit. Another day gone and the light at the tunnel seems farther away than ever.

Depends how you look at it. The PM has to be seen exhausting all the potential avenues before either she kicks the can down the road with further extension or brings the matter to an end with Revocation of Article 50. No Deal is just used as a bogey man in that it is an unusable option. I could be wrong! Nothing is clear-cut in this situation but the PM and her party is bust whichever way you end it. Revoke is more survivable than No Deal, although some of the head bangers might peel off, I cannot see some Tory backbenchers or ministers leaving the party. So Revoke is more plausible than No Deal.

The problem you have is that you come from the remain side and so see Revoke as plausible and less damaging. For many on the Leave side, myself included, No Deal, whilst not the preferred result, is far less damaging to our democracy than Revoke. It is a gamble either way as we neither of us objectively know which is the less damaging route.

Frankly for the vast majority of people in the country, the Tories going bust is neither here nor there.

No deal versus revoke is not just about democracy and the inviolability of the referendum result. There are also the economic effects. If we stay in the EU, we will have lost some institutions and jobs for no benefit. If we crash out, we will have lost those same jobs, and will experience economic and logistical disruption that will be blamed on the government separately from Brexit. Of course, in a year or several, the benefits of being outside the EU (if the headbangers are correct) will start to trickle through but by then it will be too late to save the Conservative Party.

Ironically, the blue team in Opposition will be able to blame the consequences of its own Brexit policy on Prime Minister Corbyn's nationalisation of manhole covers and subsidy of Venezuelan oil imports.

Good post.

And morning all.

I see that, according to the BBC, the first passports which don't mention the EU have been issued, although they're still burgundy. If we don't actually leave, I wonder if they'll become collectors pieces.

OldKingCole said:

I see that, according to the BBC, the first passports which don't mention the EU have been issued, although they're still burgundy. If we don't actually leave, I wonder if they'll become collectors pieces.

Is it legal to sell passports? Still conversation pieces, mind.

DecrepitJohnL said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

another_richard said:

Is washing cars and selling the Big Issue seasonal work ?

The Albanian mafia has the car wash business monopoly and the Romanians "self employed" moved on the big issue gig far before they had free movement.

Apparently Albanian's are running London's drug trade from the Gascoyne Estate in Barking., and the reason there are 2 Turkish Hairdressers and 3 Turkish restaurants in every street in Essex is laundered drug money... How did so many Albanians and Turks get to live here anyway?

Another stabbing outside Ilford station today - in broad daylight, but victim survived:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/ilford-stabbing-young-man-stabbed-in-broad-daylight-outside-busy-train-station-in-east-london-a4110756.html

Ironically the station is plastered with "safe station" posters.

Its one thing having these incidents happening late at night but this took place in broad daylight at 3.30pm as kids were coming home from school.

Ilford died to me when the landmark Bodgers department store shut last year. The town has gone so down hill it would make you cry.

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, my fellow Argonians.

Reckon Labour will hold it, but we live in odd times. Would the Tiggers put someone up?

Why? Would they be looking for a Bounce?

viewcode said:

dixiedean said:

williamglenn said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

another_richard said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

another_richard said:

Is washing cars and selling the Big Issue seasonal work ?

The Albanian mafia has the car wash business monopoly and the Romanians "self employed" moved on the big issue gig far before they had free movement.

Apparently Albanian's are running London's drug trade from the Gascoyne Estate in Barking., and the reason there are 2 Turkish Hairdressers and 3 Turkish restaurants in every street in Essex is laundered drug money... How did so many Albanians and Turks get to live here anyway?

Those EuroMart shops with a customer catchment area of 100 yards are assumed by everyone I know to be centres of dubious activity.

There's a long standing 24 hour hand car wash on Maryhill Road in Glasgow that always had massive queues waiting to be be serviced, been there decades.

I has always assumed it was a front for drugs. However a fried who lived nearby assured me it was the best car wash and valet in Glasgow bar none.

There used to be a bikini car wash advertised in the East End of Glasgow. Never partook of it myself so not sure of the 'front' element.

Edit: just remembered the name, Soapy Bubbles!

Did it go bust?

Tits up.

They boobed

was it staffed by knocker boys?

brendan16 said:

“Are half the NI electorate really Irish *without also being British* citizens? I haven’t checked, but it would surprise me”

Every one born in NI pre 2005 or is the child of such a person is automatically a UK citizen and is also legally able to claim Irish citizenship. As several Aussie MPs have found out to their cost thinking you aren’t British doesn’t mean you aren’t British (if your parents were) unless you formally renounce UK citizenship. No one is denying anyone anything as they are legally both Irish if they wish and also British . The Irish passport makes no reference to a border - it refers to the island of Ireland.

This is a lot of fuss over nowt!

Apparently DUP MPs are advising their constituents to get Irish passports. Which is ironic on quite a lot of levels.

Any tips for the National?

Casino_Royale said:

Any tips for the National?

It's going to be won by a horse.

SquareRoot said:

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

Any tips for the National?

It's going to be won by a horse.

It might not.. What if all the horses failed to finish?

Then the race is scratched, I believe.

I think there was a National where only one horse finished, after a horse very appropriately called Popham Down wiped out all the others - but I don't think there have ever been no finishers.

alex. said:

Question about Customs Union. It has been said that a problem with the customs union is that we are forced to accept EU import tariffs whilst not getting the benefits of trade deal EU export tariffs to countries outside of the EU. Is this true, and if so why are businesses which trade outside the EU (who would in many cases be facing an overnight increase in tariffs?) not making this point more forcefully, as it would surely put the Customs Union “solution” in a whole different light? Or would current export tariffs not be affected, only those negotiated in future?

I could be wrong but I think if we are in THE customs union we do get the export benefits but if we are just in A customs union we dont. I think Turkey is in the second position.

Still remember my dad picking the National winner a few years ago and asking me to place the bet (he usually doesn't gamble). I put a few extra pounds on myself, as I would've been annoyed if he'd won and I'd made nothing

williamglenn said:

DougSeal said:

The_Taxman said:

Chris said:

Well, anyhow, if the government really isn't prepared to consider any changes to the wording of the political declaration, we are going to be leaving with no deal a week today.

In preparing for this, as far as I can tell, the main things to remember are that the supermarkets have reasonably large stockpiles of food that can be stored at ambient temperature. It's food that needs to be frozen or chilled that is likely to be a problem in the event of no deal.

I don't think that No Deal is going to happen. The breakdown in Tory / Labour talks was utterly predictable as is the enduring opposition to the Deal by ERG/DUP. My feeling is the PM and her Government has to be seen to exhaust all avenues to achieving the deal, then she will revoke.

I don’t think so. I think the choice for May is no deal and destroy the Union or revoke and destroy the Tory Party. Her loyalty to party is stronger - just. It’s been the centre of her world since she was a teenager.

Ruth Davidson is scheduled to come back from maternity leave at the beginning of May. I wonder what she thinks about all this.

she will think what London tell her to think as usual.

MarqueeMark said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

MarqueeMark said:

Floater said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/ChassNews/status/1114289740860329985

Bring it on

Having France to blame for a No Deal departure from the EU would seem like all May's Christmases would have come at once....

How does that work in the context of the next election when President Macron will not be putting up candidates in Dunny-on-the-Wold?

Because those in Dunny-on-the-Wold who wanted to No Deal will have someone to point to in Paris to blame for the chaos. Those who voted Remain but had concerns about the EU will be comforted that their initial worries were well founded. The Europhile Remainers will know we ain't ever going back into the EU now, and Rejoin will be closed down, at least for the foreseeable future. And May would come out of it like a war-time leader, with the Tory Party magically sewn back together....

Substance abuse so early in the weekend isn't a good look.

As the French politician on the radio just now explained, the EU will stay united on whatever is decided (and a longer extension is the desired answer).

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Any tips for the National?

Don’t bother. Apparently if the wrong horse is winning at the end of the race they’re going to extend the course by a few furlongs to get the right result. If necessary they’ll send the horses back to the start and keep going around in circles til everyone has had enough.

(Satire)

A unicorn is going to win. I read it on the side of a bus.

IanB2 said:

MarqueeMark said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

MarqueeMark said:

Floater said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/ChassNews/status/1114289740860329985

Bring it on

Having France to blame for a No Deal departure from the EU would seem like all May's Christmases would have come at once....

How does that work in the context of the next election when President Macron will not be putting up candidates in Dunny-on-the-Wold?

Because those in Dunny-on-the-Wold who wanted to No Deal will have someone to point to in Paris to blame for the chaos. Those who voted Remain but had concerns about the EU will be comforted that their initial worries were well founded. The Europhile Remainers will know we ain't ever going back into the EU now, and Rejoin will be closed down, at least for the foreseeable future. And May would come out of it like a war-time leader, with the Tory Party magically sewn back together....

Substance abuse so early in the weekend isn't a good look.

As the French politician on the radio just now explained, the EU will stay united on whatever is decided (and a longer extension is the desired answer).

"Oi, Macron - get back in your box!"

"Non....."

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Any tips for the National?

Is it still sponsored by Pedigree Chum?

The sponsor of the race after the Grand National is a familiar pb name.

"We're not saying anything definitely but we have a position"

Labour's approach to Brexit in a nutshell. Diane on the radio just now.

IanB2 said:

"We're not saying anything definitely but we have a position"

Labour's approach to Brexit in a nutshell. Diane on the radio just now.

To be fair, that is everyone's approach to Brexit, except for the Prime Minister who repeatedly offers compromise talks to Labour, SNP, her own ERG backbenchers, and the EU itself, only to reveal that compromise is only possible if neither the WA nor PD can be changed by a single dot or comma.

malcolmg said:

williamglenn said:

DougSeal said:

The_Taxman said:

Chris said:

Well, anyhow, if the government really isn't prepared to consider any changes to the wording of the political declaration, we are going to be leaving with no deal a week today.

In preparing for this, as far as I can tell, the main things to remember are that the supermarkets have reasonably large stockpiles of food that can be stored at ambient temperature. It's food that needs to be frozen or chilled that is likely to be a problem in the event of no deal.

I don't think that No Deal is going to happen. The breakdown in Tory / Labour talks was utterly predictable as is the enduring opposition to the Deal by ERG/DUP. My feeling is the PM and her Government has to be seen to exhaust all avenues to achieving the deal, then she will revoke.

I don’t think so. I think the choice for May is no deal and destroy the Union or revoke and destroy the Tory Party. Her loyalty to party is stronger - just. It’s been the centre of her world since she was a teenager.

Ruth Davidson is scheduled to come back from maternity leave at the beginning of May. I wonder what she thinks about all this.

she will think what London tell her to think as usual.

Really, Ruth has never followed London lead in the past. She even rejected TM manifesto at last election and fought it on the union with much more success than her English colleagues.