politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » HealthSec Hancock edges up in the betting for next CON leader
Comments
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Time you enjoyed wasting was not wasted.AndyJS said:
I wish I'd had that idea about 5 years ago.Philip_Thompson said:I just wanted to write to say see you later to everyone. Spending too much time addicted to this site and not enough time getting my work done so requested TSE to temporarily ban me. Will request the ban to be lifted once I've got my work completed. Hopefully it will be before Brexit but that may not be saying much!
Have fun and good luck everyone. Bye for now.0 -
It would be shocking if May wasn’t willing to change the political declaration .
If that’s the case any Labour MP willing to back the deal now will have a hard time justifying that.0 -
Dunt over spinning. Starmer has just said no agreement but talks continueRichard_Nabavi said:
Is that Ian Dunt's wishful thinking, or is there something more specific?AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Since pretty much everything Labour wanted was available in the Withdrawal Agreement itself, why should she?nico67 said:It would be shocking if May wasn’t willing to change the political declaration .
If that’s the case any Labour MP willing to back the deal now will have a hard time justifying that.0 -
So Mrs May was up for compromise provided that neither the WA nor the PD was changed? LOL. Our prime minister is one bloody difficult woman.
Looks like MPs are sooner or later going to have to pass her Deal. There comes a point when resistance is futile.0 -
It was a suggestion floated by Johnny "Boris give me a job" Mercer.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Yes I am a member and I would expect any change in the rules would be circulated to the membersNigel_Foremain said:
I think you are member, as am I, do you think we might have been told? Well I guess maybe not. More likely it is more shit on the pages of the Sun than you generally find in a navvy's privy.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Just a rumour in the Sun, certainly not being discussedNigel_Foremain said:
Interesting, I missed that, when was that decided?GIN1138 said:
Keep in mind though the little noted decision by the Conservative Party to send four candidates through to the members ballot rather two.AlastairMeeks said:Sajid Javid has drifted quite a long way in the betting. He doesn't seem to have done anything wrong so much as the caravan has moved on. Has he been definitively eclipsed by Jeremy Hunt as the candidate of the self-defining pragmatic middle?
That really blows everything open and at this point I'm not sure how anyone could pick a favourite in this contest.
Just another non story0 -
Remember nobody could solve this and replacing May can't help...Slackbladder said:
The tories need to get their version of the story out and quickly.
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They are not going to reward her for this. I think Parliament would rather revoke than pass her deal now.kinabalu said:So Mrs May was up for compromise provided that neither the WA nor the PD was changed? LOL. Our prime minister is one bloody difficult woman.
Looks like MPs are sooner or later going to have to pass her Deal. There comes a point when resistance is futile.0 -
Completely off topic, as Pete Buttigieg comes in on Betfair, Beto O'Rourke seems to be slowly drifting out (at last-matched prices, the former has overtaken the latter). Those may be unconnected events but the relationship of prices does seem to make a certain sense, given both are fresh-faced contenders. Would others agree that they are competing for similar supporters?0
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Because this is politics and she needs to give Labour a way of backing down. This is basic stuff.ydoethur said:
Since pretty much everything Labour wanted was available in the Withdrawal Agreement itself, why should she?nico67 said:It would be shocking if May wasn’t willing to change the political declaration .
If that’s the case any Labour MP willing to back the deal now will have a hard time justifying that.0 -
How on earth do you deduce from that article that his fears were fake? Surely it confirms the opposite?ydoethur said:
Interesting, thanks. Especially that last paragraph.AlastairMeeks said:
I believe this explainer in the Guardian is accurate, so far as we can tell:ydoethur said:
What will they arrest him for? Haven't the Swedes dropped their request for extradition due to the statute of limitations expiring?AlastairMeeks said:I wonder what interesting things Julian Assange will have to say to the rozzers when he emerges and is duly arrested. There must be a lot of people queuing up to have a chat with him about his activities of one sort or another.
Can he actually only be arrested for jumping bail?
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/apr/05/why-is-wikileaks-founder-julian-assange-in-london-ecuadorian-embassy
There would be a certain irony if having used fake fears of extradition to the US to hide from allegations of sexual misconduct, he managed to prolong matters to the extent that a change of political scenery in Washington made those fears into a reality.
Karma's a bitch.
It is an utter disgrace that UK police resources have continued to be used to stop this man leaving the country, especially considering there's an epidemic of violent crime.0 -
Then what’s the point of talking then . The whole point was to make changes to the PD.ydoethur said:
Since pretty much everything Labour wanted was available in the Withdrawal Agreement itself, why should she?nico67 said:It would be shocking if May wasn’t willing to change the political declaration .
If that’s the case any Labour MP willing to back the deal now will have a hard time justifying that.0 -
Seems likely. And Buttigieg is the fresher face.AlastairMeeks said:Completely off topic, as Pete Buttigieg comes in on Betfair, Beto O'Rourke seems to be slowly drifting out (at last-matched prices, the former has overtaken the latter). Those may be unconnected events but the relationship of prices does seem to make a certain sense, given both are fresh-faced contenders. Would others agree that they are competing for similar supporters?
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Neither side can really afford to be the one that walks away. They are stuck in there listening to the Maybot on loop.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Dunt over spinning. Starmer has just said no agreement but talks continueRichard_Nabavi said:
Is that Ian Dunt's wishful thinking, or is there something more specific?AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Are we back to having to have an election yet?Gallowgate said:
Because this is politics and she needs to give Labour a way of backing down. This is basic stuff.ydoethur said:
Since pretty much everything Labour wanted was available in the Withdrawal Agreement itself, why should she?nico67 said:It would be shocking if May wasn’t willing to change the political declaration .
If that’s the case any Labour MP willing to back the deal now will have a hard time justifying that.0 -
I was once interviewed by Julia Hartley-Brewer when she was on LBC about some employment law topic or another and she seemed very interested in getting me to confirm that teachers were all useless and too difficult to fire. I don’t remember exactly what the interview was about, save that it had something to do with investigating misconduct, but it sure as hell wasn’t that.MikeSmithson said:
Ahh. Julia Hartley-Brewer the Poundland Katie HopkinsNigel_Foremain said:
Lord Ashcroft in favour of Remain then is he?isam said:
Lord Ashcroft is trying to recruit him and Julia Hartley-Brewer for The Brexit PartyAndyJS said:"Piers Morgan: why, as a former Remainer, I’d now back Leave"
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/04/piers-morgan-why-as-a-former-remainer-id-now-back-leave/0 -
Talking of Assange, this is rather fun:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/apr/05/gchq-discloses-secret-location-of-former-london-office0 -
The Maybot is very good at positioning, and preternaturally stubborn.IanB2 said:
Neither side can really afford to be the one that walks away. They are stuck in there listening to the Maybot on loop.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Dunt over spinning. Starmer has just said no agreement but talks continueRichard_Nabavi said:
Is that Ian Dunt's wishful thinking, or is there something more specific?AlastairMeeks said:0 -
No, the point was to allow May to end the marathon Cabinet meeting with no resignations by pretending there was a chance Labour would be dumb enough to agree the WA with no changes.nico67 said:
Then what’s the point of talking then . The whole point was to make changes to the PD.ydoethur said:
Since pretty much everything Labour wanted was available in the Withdrawal Agreement itself, why should she?nico67 said:It would be shocking if May wasn’t willing to change the political declaration .
If that’s the case any Labour MP willing to back the deal now will have a hard time justifying that.0 -
Yes, it's really terrible that the police use their resources to try and catch people who break the law. They should spend it on penguin awareness courses instead.Luckyguy1983 said:
How on earth do you deduce from that article that his fears were fake? Surely it confirms the opposite?ydoethur said:
Interesting, thanks. Especially that last paragraph.AlastairMeeks said:
I believe this explainer in the Guardian is accurate, so far as we can tell:ydoethur said:
What will they arrest him for? Haven't the Swedes dropped their request for extradition due to the statute of limitations expiring?AlastairMeeks said:I wonder what interesting things Julian Assange will have to say to the rozzers when he emerges and is duly arrested. There must be a lot of people queuing up to have a chat with him about his activities of one sort or another.
Can he actually only be arrested for jumping bail?
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/apr/05/why-is-wikileaks-founder-julian-assange-in-london-ecuadorian-embassy
There would be a certain irony if having used fake fears of extradition to the US to hide from allegations of sexual misconduct, he managed to prolong matters to the extent that a change of political scenery in Washington made those fears into a reality.
Karma's a bitch.
It is an utter disgrace that UK police resources have continued to be used to stop this man leaving the country, especially considering there's an epidemic of violent crime.
As for the first, the US could have extradited him from here at any time for no reason, but they would have found it much harder to extradite him from Sweden which has a much less comprehensive extradition treaty and would have required our consent for onward movement.
Whether Assange did or didn't rape anyone I don't know. But his wild and patently false claims about the extradition being an American stitch-up showed one of paranoia, stupidity, or guilt.
I think probably the real problem he couldn't deal with was that the Obama administration considered him much less important than Manning. Trump, surprisingly, seems to feel the opposite way.0 -
May is so boxed in that she can't move an inch without resignations.nico67 said:It would be shocking if May wasn’t willing to change the political declaration .
If that’s the case any Labour MP willing to back the deal now will have a hard time justifying that.
She just needs to get through to Monday where MPs may impose a solution upon her, and if they don't the EU will impose a long extension upon her. Her job is reacting not acting.0 -
Well, it might have been an effort to get Labour to engage in a meaningful way with the text, which it's painfully clear none of them have read (or at least, if they have, haven't understood it).nico67 said:
Then what’s the point of talking then . The whole point was to make changes to the PD.ydoethur said:
Since pretty much everything Labour wanted was available in the Withdrawal Agreement itself, why should she?nico67 said:It would be shocking if May wasn’t willing to change the political declaration .
If that’s the case any Labour MP willing to back the deal now will have a hard time justifying that.0 -
My new early to bed regime means I have only just caught up with last nights edition of This Week... overjoyed to hear Michael Portillo make the point I have repeated ad infinitum, including in a tweet to Nigel Farage himself...
"...the middle road, the Customs Union, would have seemed marvellous to leavers four years ago, and now seems an absolute cheat"0 -
No, guess not. Another ruse to put off the evil day by the sounds of it. Which TBF was always the most rational interpretation.Gallowgate said:They are not going to reward her for this. I think Parliament would rather revoke than pass her deal now.
I do hope Jeremy and his team didn't waste too much time on this whole thing. They have got far more important things to do such as preparing for government.0 -
Last week's Sunday newspapers were pretty quiet. Will this Sunday's be as lacking in meat?0
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Put through the Rory Stewart translator: 'The parties' positions are extremely close.'AlastairMeeks said:0 -
The two versions aren't mutually exclusive.Theuniondivvie said:
Put through the Rory Stewart translator: 'The parties' positions are extremely close.'AlastairMeeks said:0 -
I like him a lot. But it is interesting to see that amongst my American friends - who are almost all uniformly Democrat - there are some attempts being made already to smear him regarding his views on Israel. It is interesting that so far these attacks are coming from Democrats rather than Republicans since obviously the threat he poses to the other Democrat contenders is more immediate than any threat to the Republicans.rottenborough said:
Seems likely. And Buttigieg is the fresher face.AlastairMeeks said:Completely off topic, as Pete Buttigieg comes in on Betfair, Beto O'Rourke seems to be slowly drifting out (at last-matched prices, the former has overtaken the latter). Those may be unconnected events but the relationship of prices does seem to make a certain sense, given both are fresh-faced contenders. Would others agree that they are competing for similar supporters?
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Yet they got carried away by the shift in the Overton window, overshot, and now risk losing everything.isam said:My new early to bed regime means I have only just caught up with last nights edition of This Week... overjoyed to hear Michael Portillo make the point I have repeated ad infinitum, including in a tweet to Nigel Farage himself...
"...the middle road, the Customs Union, would have seemed marvellous to leavers four years ago, and now seems an absolute cheat"0 -
As I said on Wednesday, Nothing Has Changed!IanB2 said:
Neither side can really afford to be the one that walks away. They are stuck in there listening to the Maybot on loop.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Dunt over spinning. Starmer has just said no agreement but talks continueRichard_Nabavi said:
Is that Ian Dunt's wishful thinking, or is there something more specific?AlastairMeeks said:
May must love being rejected, in some strange masochistic way. Today she applied again for the extension that the EU rejected last week. Nothing has changed. This afternoon she has rejected changes to the WA and PD. Nothing Has Changed. It is hard to believe that she is quite so stupid, but there we are. Any ideas as to what her "Safe word" might be?0 -
Has it been confirmed that the Euro elections will be taking place in the UK?0
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The guy’s an alleged rapist.Luckyguy1983 said:
How on earth do you deduce from that article that his fears were fake? Surely it confirms the opposite?ydoethur said:
Interesting, thanks. Especially that last paragraph.AlastairMeeks said:
I believe this explainer in the Guardian is accurate, so far as we can tell:ydoethur said:
What will they arrest him for? Haven't the Swedes dropped their request for extradition due to the statute of limitations expiring?AlastairMeeks said:I wonder what interesting things Julian Assange will have to say to the rozzers when he emerges and is duly arrested. There must be a lot of people queuing up to have a chat with him about his activities of one sort or another.
Can he actually only be arrested for jumping bail?
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/apr/05/why-is-wikileaks-founder-julian-assange-in-london-ecuadorian-embassy
There would be a certain irony if having used fake fears of extradition to the US to hide from allegations of sexual misconduct, he managed to prolong matters to the extent that a change of political scenery in Washington made those fears into a reality.
Karma's a bitch.
It is an utter disgrace that UK police resources have continued to be used to stop this man leaving the country, especially considering there's an epidemic of violent crime.
And I don’t want the police deciding which laws are worthy of enforcing vs not.0 -
Curtice pointing out the Tory+Lab vote share in Newport W has never (taken to mean living electoral memory) been as low as at the by-election0
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Are you serious? I probably disagree with JHB on most things but compared to ** she's surely a goddess?MikeSmithson said:
Ahh. Julia Hartley-Brewer the Poundland Katie HopkinsNigel_Foremain said:
Lord Ashcroft in favour of Remain then is he?isam said:
Lord Ashcroft is trying to recruit him and Julia Hartley-Brewer for The Brexit PartyAndyJS said:"Piers Morgan: why, as a former Remainer, I’d now back Leave"
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/04/piers-morgan-why-as-a-former-remainer-id-now-back-leave/0 -
WheatfieldFoxy said:
As I said on Wednesday, Nothing Has Changed!IanB2 said:
Neither side can really afford to be the one that walks away. They are stuck in there listening to the Maybot on loop.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Dunt over spinning. Starmer has just said no agreement but talks continueRichard_Nabavi said:
Is that Ian Dunt's wishful thinking, or is there something more specific?AlastairMeeks said:
May must love being rejected, in some strange masochistic way. Today she applied again for the extension that the EU rejected last week. Nothing has changed. This afternoon she has rejected changes to the WA and PD. Nothing Has Changed. It is hard to believe that she is quite so stupid, but there we are. Any ideas as to what her "Safe word" might be?0 -
Dr. Foxy, very unfair comparison with S&Mers.
I believe their motto is 'safe, sane, and consensual'. That doesn't tally with May's approach.0 -
Followed by Remainer Alan Johnson saying that a referendum beteween Mays Deal and Remain would be "cooked up and bent"isam said:My new early to bed regime means I have only just caught up with last nights edition of This Week... overjoyed to hear Michael Portillo make the point I have repeated ad infinitum, including in a tweet to Nigel Farage himself...
"...the middle road, the Customs Union, would have seemed marvellous to leavers four years ago, and now seems an absolute cheat"0 -
Textbook case of the Drunk Driver's Fallacy.Luckyguy1983 said:
How on earth do you deduce from that article that his fears were fake? Surely it confirms the opposite?ydoethur said:
Interesting, thanks. Especially that last paragraph.AlastairMeeks said:
I believe this explainer in the Guardian is accurate, so far as we can tell:ydoethur said:
What will they arrest him for? Haven't the Swedes dropped their request for extradition due to the statute of limitations expiring?AlastairMeeks said:I wonder what interesting things Julian Assange will have to say to the rozzers when he emerges and is duly arrested. There must be a lot of people queuing up to have a chat with him about his activities of one sort or another.
Can he actually only be arrested for jumping bail?
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/apr/05/why-is-wikileaks-founder-julian-assange-in-london-ecuadorian-embassy
There would be a certain irony if having used fake fears of extradition to the US to hide from allegations of sexual misconduct, he managed to prolong matters to the extent that a change of political scenery in Washington made those fears into a reality.
Karma's a bitch.
It is an utter disgrace that UK police resources have continued to be used to stop this man leaving the country, especially considering there's an epidemic of violent crime.0 -
His opening to that was that a wise man had said to him earlier in the week that ..."the problem with revolutions was that the object of the revolution changes as the revolution progresses"IanB2 said:
Yet they got carried away by the shift in the Overton window, overshot, and now risk losing everything.isam said:My new early to bed regime means I have only just caught up with last nights edition of This Week... overjoyed to hear Michael Portillo make the point I have repeated ad infinitum, including in a tweet to Nigel Farage himself...
"...the middle road, the Customs Union, would have seemed marvellous to leavers four years ago, and now seems an absolute cheat"
Quite so. I campaigned for UKIP in 2013-15, and if you'd have told us that we would get a referendum and have won it by June 2016, I don't think anyone would have believed that we would have not been biting the PM's hand off for any deal that meant we were out.0 -
Or until the EU forces them to accept a long extension, of course.AndyJS said:0 -
Well, I gave Mrs May credit for reaching out to Labour and putting country. It looks like I could well have been wrong - as many on here told me I was. I’m still hoping not, though. Surely even she wouldn’t be so stupidly dishonest as that.0
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If you had any remaining doubt about whether Joe Biden is going to run, read the entries at 17:45 and 17:53 here:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2019/apr/05/trump-news-today-latest-mueller-report-democrats-elizabeth-warren-filibuster-live-updates
An excerpt:
The definition of progressive, Biden said, seems to be shifting - now, it’s “are you a socialist?” Which he is not.
“The vast majority of the members of the Democratic party are still basically liberal to moderate Democrats in the traditional sense,” he said, asking to be defined by his views on race, women’s rights, gay rights and civil liberties. “I’ll stack my record on those things against anyone who has ever run.”
Most of the candidates who successfully defeated Republicans have been from his wing of the party, Biden said.
“Show me the really left, left, left wingers who beat a Republican,” he said. “So the idea the Democratic party is kinda stood on its head, I don’t get.”0 -
As I said, there was no other escape from the Cabinet meeting that allowed her to pretend nothing would change and avoid resignations.SouthamObserver said:Well, I gave Mrs May credit for reaching out to Labour and putting country. It looks like I could well have been wrong - as many on here told me I was. I’m still hoping not, though. Surely even she wouldn’t be so stupidly dishonest as that.
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I suppose it depends on what was demanded. I can see her having acceded on the CU but saying no to rerunning the referendum. I actually give her no credit at all but can see that perhaps there were some red lines she still felt she could not cross.SouthamObserver said:Well, I gave Mrs May credit for reaching out to Labour and putting country. It looks like I could well have been wrong - as many on here told me I was. I’m still hoping not, though. Surely even she wouldn’t be so stupidly dishonest as that.
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If it is true France, Spain and Belgium are going to refuse an extension then the HOC have to decide next ThursdaySouthamObserver said:Well, I gave Mrs May credit for reaching out to Labour and putting country. It looks like I could well have been wrong - as many on here told me I was. I’m still hoping not, though. Surely even she wouldn’t be so stupidly dishonest as that.
TM deal - revoke0 -
Lewisham East saw a swing to the Tories of 4.5% last June - though they dropped to a distant third place!IanB2 said:0 -
France are now safe to say no extension and turf the Uk out. They wouldn't get the blame.
May - rightly - would.
Win win win all round.
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I have had a lingering suspicion for some time that May's running down the clock was not just a device to get others to agree to her deal in panic, but also because she is in reality quite sanguine about a no-deal exit. But she does not want to be blamed for it. Shifting the blame to the EU looks to be her strategy. Not that I'd be displeased with that outcome.0
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They will vote against TM's deal and against revoking - as previously.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it is true France, Spain and Belgium are going to refuse an extension then the HOC have to decide next ThursdaySouthamObserver said:Well, I gave Mrs May credit for reaching out to Labour and putting country. It looks like I could well have been wrong - as many on here told me I was. I’m still hoping not, though. Surely even she wouldn’t be so stupidly dishonest as that.
TM deal - revoke
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And against leaving with No Deal, of course!TGOHF said:
They will vote against TM's deal and against revoking - as previously.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it is true France, Spain and Belgium are going to refuse an extension then the HOC have to decide next ThursdaySouthamObserver said:Well, I gave Mrs May credit for reaching out to Labour and putting country. It looks like I could well have been wrong - as many on here told me I was. I’m still hoping not, though. Surely even she wouldn’t be so stupidly dishonest as that.
TM deal - revoke0 -
Indeed !Richard_Nabavi said:
And against leaving with No Deal, of course!TGOHF said:
They will vote against TM's deal and against revoking - as previously.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it is true France, Spain and Belgium are going to refuse an extension then the HOC have to decide next ThursdaySouthamObserver said:Well, I gave Mrs May credit for reaching out to Labour and putting country. It looks like I could well have been wrong - as many on here told me I was. I’m still hoping not, though. Surely even she wouldn’t be so stupidly dishonest as that.
TM deal - revoke
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You think he'll run ?Richard_Nabavi said:If you had any remaining doubt about whether Joe Biden is going to run, read the entries at 17:45 and 17:53 here:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2019/apr/05/trump-news-today-latest-mueller-report-democrats-elizabeth-warren-filibuster-live-updates
An excerpt:
The definition of progressive, Biden said, seems to be shifting - now, it’s “are you a socialist?” Which he is not.
“The vast majority of the members of the Democratic party are still basically liberal to moderate Democrats in the traditional sense,” he said, asking to be defined by his views on race, women’s rights, gay rights and civil liberties. “I’ll stack my record on those things against anyone who has ever run.”
Most of the candidates who successfully defeated Republicans have been from his wing of the party, Biden said.
“Show me the really left, left, left wingers who beat a Republican,” he said. “So the idea the Democratic party is kinda stood on its head, I don’t get.”0 -
If they revoke, then what?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it is true France, Spain and Belgium are going to refuse an extension then the HOC have to decide next ThursdaySouthamObserver said:Well, I gave Mrs May credit for reaching out to Labour and putting country. It looks like I could well have been wrong - as many on here told me I was. I’m still hoping not, though. Surely even she wouldn’t be so stupidly dishonest as that.
TM deal - revoke0 -
That is utter nonsense. If France do this it will be France and their supporters who will be blamedTGOHF said:France are now safe to say no extension and turf the Uk out. They wouldn't get the blame.
May - rightly - would.
Win win win all round.0 -
There is a Douglas Adams gag about a group of people failing to invent the wheel because they can't agree what colour a wheel should be. That is pretty much where the various factions of Leave are now.isam said:
His opening to that was that a wise man had said to him earlier in the week that ..."the problem with revolutions was that the object of the revolution changes as the revolution progresses"IanB2 said:
Yet they got carried away by the shift in the Overton window, overshot, and now risk losing everything.isam said:My new early to bed regime means I have only just caught up with last nights edition of This Week... overjoyed to hear Michael Portillo make the point I have repeated ad infinitum, including in a tweet to Nigel Farage himself...
"...the middle road, the Customs Union, would have seemed marvellous to leavers four years ago, and now seems an absolute cheat"
Quite so. I campaigned for UKIP in 2013-15, and if you'd have told us that we would get a referendum and have won it by June 2016, I don't think anyone would have believed that we would have not been biting the PM's hand off for any deal that meant we were out.0 -
O/T. For any of our medics here; If esophageal cancer has blocked the pipe so much that a rod had to be pushed through before a stent could be fitted, and then the stent has failed, is a feeding tube possible? I can't find anything about this0
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It very much sounds like it.Pulpstar said:
You think he'll run ?Richard_Nabavi said:If you had any remaining doubt about whether Joe Biden is going to run, read the entries at 17:45 and 17:53 here:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2019/apr/05/trump-news-today-latest-mueller-report-democrats-elizabeth-warren-filibuster-live-updates
An excerpt:
The definition of progressive, Biden said, seems to be shifting - now, it’s “are you a socialist?” Which he is not.
“The vast majority of the members of the Democratic party are still basically liberal to moderate Democrats in the traditional sense,” he said, asking to be defined by his views on race, women’s rights, gay rights and civil liberties. “I’ll stack my record on those things against anyone who has ever run.”
Most of the candidates who successfully defeated Republicans have been from his wing of the party, Biden said.
“Show me the really left, left, left wingers who beat a Republican,” he said. “So the idea the Democratic party is kinda stood on its head, I don’t get.”0 -
By who ? The BBC ? No, C4 ? No, Labour ? No, LDems ? No. The Irish ? No.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is utter nonsense. If France do this it will be France and their supporters who will be blamedTGOHF said:France are now safe to say no extension and turf the Uk out. They wouldn't get the blame.
May - rightly - would.
Win win win all round.
We have dithered and delayed - no excuses now if the EU lose patience.
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The British publicTGOHF said:
By who ? The BBC ? No, C4 ? No, Labour ? No, LDems ? No. The Irish ? No.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is utter nonsense. If France do this it will be France and their supporters who will be blamedTGOHF said:France are now safe to say no extension and turf the Uk out. They wouldn't get the blame.
May - rightly - would.
Win win win all round.
We have dithered and delayed - no excuses now if the EU lose patience.0 -
The EU would refuse it unless we either ruled out leaving for 10 years or agreed to a flextension.twistedfirestopper3 said:
If they revoke, then what?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it is true France, Spain and Belgium are going to refuse an extension then the HOC have to decide next ThursdaySouthamObserver said:Well, I gave Mrs May credit for reaching out to Labour and putting country. It looks like I could well have been wrong - as many on here told me I was. I’m still hoping not, though. Surely even she wouldn’t be so stupidly dishonest as that.
TM deal - revoke
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It would have to be voted for by the HOC next weektwistedfirestopper3 said:
If they revoke, then what?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it is true France, Spain and Belgium are going to refuse an extension then the HOC have to decide next ThursdaySouthamObserver said:Well, I gave Mrs May credit for reaching out to Labour and putting country. It looks like I could well have been wrong - as many on here told me I was. I’m still hoping not, though. Surely even she wouldn’t be so stupidly dishonest as that.
TM deal - revoke0 -
I would be bloody furious. One of my hobbyhorses on this board is "failing and blaming": the propensity of British politicians to eschew achievement (which is difficult) in favour of blaming (which is easy). It is the product of a political class which exposes its wanton incompetence and poor morals with increasing frequency.geoffw said:I have had a lingering suspicion for some time that May's running down the clock was not just a device to get others to agree to her deal in panic, but also because she is in reality quite sanguine about a no-deal exit. But she does not want to be blamed for it. Shifting the blame to the EU looks to be her strategy. Not that I'd be displeased with that outcome.
0 -
Maybe that's the cunning plan. Arse about so much that the eu get the hump and kick us out- then we can blame them!Big_G_NorthWales said:
The British publicTGOHF said:
By who ? The BBC ? No, C4 ? No, Labour ? No, LDems ? No. The Irish ? No.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is utter nonsense. If France do this it will be France and their supporters who will be blamedTGOHF said:France are now safe to say no extension and turf the Uk out. They wouldn't get the blame.
May - rightly - would.
Win win win all round.
We have dithered and delayed - no excuses now if the EU lose patience.0 -
The EU can't refuse a revocation as long as it's done in accordance with the UK's constitutional requirements.TGOHF said:
The EU would refuse it unless we either ruled out leaving for 10 years or agreed to a flextension.twistedfirestopper3 said:
If they revoke, then what?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it is true France, Spain and Belgium are going to refuse an extension then the HOC have to decide next ThursdaySouthamObserver said:Well, I gave Mrs May credit for reaching out to Labour and putting country. It looks like I could well have been wrong - as many on here told me I was. I’m still hoping not, though. Surely even she wouldn’t be so stupidly dishonest as that.
TM deal - revoke0 -
It is possible to do a feeding gastrostomy. This is an opening from the upper abdomen to the stomach, so food gan go directly into the stomach. It is also possible to do Total Parental Nutrition intravenously.ExiledInScotland said:O/T. For any of our medics here; If esophageal cancer has blocked the pipe so much that a rod had to be pushed through before a stent could be fitted, and then the stent has failed, is a feeding tube possible? I can't find anything about this
The prognosis though at this stage is very grim indeed, and palliative care may well be kinder.0 -
Of course by revoking, Mrs May would achieve the feat of making herself even more unpopular.williamglenn said:
The EU can't refuse a revocation as long as it's done in accordance with the UK's constitutional requirements.TGOHF said:
The EU would refuse it unless we either ruled out leaving for 10 years or agreed to a flextension.twistedfirestopper3 said:
If they revoke, then what?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it is true France, Spain and Belgium are going to refuse an extension then the HOC have to decide next ThursdaySouthamObserver said:Well, I gave Mrs May credit for reaching out to Labour and putting country. It looks like I could well have been wrong - as many on here told me I was. I’m still hoping not, though. Surely even she wouldn’t be so stupidly dishonest as that.
TM deal - revoke0 -
In a closely contested field, I think I would blame ERG most, followed by May and Corbyn, followed by the DUP, then the rest of the HoC, then Ireland. I would rank France after all that lot for responsibility for a no deal exit, but saying they are responsible is not the same thing as blaming them. I don't see what they would have done wrong.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is utter nonsense. If France do this it will be France and their supporters who will be blamedTGOHF said:France are now safe to say no extension and turf the Uk out. They wouldn't get the blame.
May - rightly - would.
Win win win all round.0 -
Possible the EU might agree an extension but say no further ones will be allowed .
Alternatively Wednesday goes badly , the pound implodes on Thursday . MPs are left with revoke or no deal .
Alternatively Mays deal comes back on Thursday with MPs caving in and voting for it , EU leaders grant an emergency extension .
Wednesday goes badly , EU leaders grant an extension but with no deal ending mid May . MPs still panic and vote for the deal .
In terms of the above , a new clause amendment has been put forward by cross bench peers to the Cooper/Letwin Bill .
Effectively if no extension then the government must ask MPs if they agree to leave without a deal . If they say no then the government must revoke Article 50.0 -
They cannot refuse it. That is one constantTGOHF said:
The EU would refuse it unless we either ruled out leaving for 10 years or agreed to a flextension.twistedfirestopper3 said:
If they revoke, then what?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it is true France, Spain and Belgium are going to refuse an extension then the HOC have to decide next ThursdaySouthamObserver said:Well, I gave Mrs May credit for reaching out to Labour and putting country. It looks like I could well have been wrong - as many on here told me I was. I’m still hoping not, though. Surely even she wouldn’t be so stupidly dishonest as that.
TM deal - revoke0 -
Thank you. That is what I feared. My brother - nine years older than me.Foxy said:
It is possible to do a feeding gastrostomy. This is an opening from the upper abdomen to the stomach, so food gan go directly into the stomach. It is also possible to do Total Parental Nutrition intravenously.ExiledInScotland said:O/T. For any of our medics here; If esophageal cancer has blocked the pipe so much that a rod had to be pushed through before a stent could be fitted, and then the stent has failed, is a feeding tube possible? I can't find anything about this
The prognosis though at this stage is very grim indeed, and palliative care may well be kinder.0 -
If it comes down to that then it'll be a straight vote on Revocation. Yes and Brexit is cancelled, No and Brexit is Hard.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it is true France, Spain and Belgium are going to refuse an extension then the HOC have to decide next ThursdaySouthamObserver said:Well, I gave Mrs May credit for reaching out to Labour and putting country. It looks like I could well have been wrong - as many on here told me I was. I’m still hoping not, though. Surely even she wouldn’t be so stupidly dishonest as that.
TM deal - revoke
In the eleventh hour scenario there are, one would guess, far too many MPs already entrenched in their positions to get the Deal over the line at the fourth attempt. The committed Remainers, once deprived of the referendum option, will switch to Revocation; the committed Brexiteers, most of whom have always rejected the Deal or voted for it with great reluctance, will also see the Holy Grail shimmering in the near distance.
The Withdrawal Agreement only gets through if May swallows Labour Brexit hook, line and sinker, or possibly if she accedes to a referendum. Yet there is no sign of her giving any ground at all.0 -
It would be a decision by the HOCTGOHF said:
Of course by revoking, Mrs May would achieve the feat of making herself even more unpopular.williamglenn said:
The EU can't refuse a revocation as long as it's done in accordance with the UK's constitutional requirements.TGOHF said:
The EU would refuse it unless we either ruled out leaving for 10 years or agreed to a flextension.twistedfirestopper3 said:
If they revoke, then what?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it is true France, Spain and Belgium are going to refuse an extension then the HOC have to decide next ThursdaySouthamObserver said:Well, I gave Mrs May credit for reaching out to Labour and putting country. It looks like I could well have been wrong - as many on here told me I was. I’m still hoping not, though. Surely even she wouldn’t be so stupidly dishonest as that.
TM deal - revoke0 -
Mrs May would have to resign in that scenario.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They cannot refuse it. That is one constantTGOHF said:
The EU would refuse it unless we either ruled out leaving for 10 years or agreed to a flextension.twistedfirestopper3 said:
If they revoke, then what?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it is true France, Spain and Belgium are going to refuse an extension then the HOC have to decide next ThursdaySouthamObserver said:Well, I gave Mrs May credit for reaching out to Labour and putting country. It looks like I could well have been wrong - as many on here told me I was. I’m still hoping not, though. Surely even she wouldn’t be so stupidly dishonest as that.
TM deal - revoke0 -
Actually I agree that is a fair assessmentIshmael_Z said:
In a closely contested field, I think I would blame ERG most, followed by May and Corbyn, followed by the DUP, then the rest of the HoC, then Ireland. I would rank France after all that lot for responsibility for a no deal exit, but saying they are responsible is not the same thing as blaming them. I don't see what they would have done wrong.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is utter nonsense. If France do this it will be France and their supporters who will be blamedTGOHF said:France are now safe to say no extension and turf the Uk out. They wouldn't get the blame.
May - rightly - would.
Win win win all round.0 -
Why no blame for the Con MPs who didn't eject the clearly hopeless May as PM in December ?Ishmael_Z said:
In a closely contested field, I think I would blame ERG most, followed by May and Corbyn, followed by the DUP, then the rest of the HoC, then Ireland. I would rank France after all that lot for responsibility for a no deal exit, but saying they are responsible is not the same thing as blaming them. I don't see what they would have done wrong.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is utter nonsense. If France do this it will be France and their supporters who will be blamedTGOHF said:France are now safe to say no extension and turf the Uk out. They wouldn't get the blame.
May - rightly - would.
Win win win all round.
I would. It was clear she was hopeless. Why didn't they change course ?0 -
I agree with you about the ridiculous blame-avoiding. But if France et al just put us out of our misery, I will feel relieved.viewcode said:
I would be bloody furious. One of my hobbyhorses on this board is "failing and blaming": the propensity of British politicians to eschew achievement (which is difficult) in favour of blaming (which is easy). It is the product of a political class which exposes its wanton incompetence and poor morals with increasing frequency.geoffw said:I have had a lingering suspicion for some time that May's running down the clock was not just a device to get others to agree to her deal in panic, but also because she is in reality quite sanguine about a no-deal exit. But she does not want to be blamed for it. Shifting the blame to the EU looks to be her strategy. Not that I'd be displeased with that outcome.
0 -
I am very sorry to hear that. It must be very difficult for you all. My best hopes for the coming days.ExiledInScotland said:
Thank you. That is what I feared. My brother - nine years older than me.Foxy said:
It is possible to do a feeding gastrostomy. This is an opening from the upper abdomen to the stomach, so food gan go directly into the stomach. It is also possible to do Total Parental Nutrition intravenously.ExiledInScotland said:O/T. For any of our medics here; If esophageal cancer has blocked the pipe so much that a rod had to be pushed through before a stent could be fitted, and then the stent has failed, is a feeding tube possible? I can't find anything about this
The prognosis though at this stage is very grim indeed, and palliative care may well be kinder.0 -
Very sorry to hear that.ExiledInScotland said:
Thank you. That is what I feared. My brother - nine years older than me.Foxy said:
It is possible to do a feeding gastrostomy. This is an opening from the upper abdomen to the stomach, so food gan go directly into the stomach. It is also possible to do Total Parental Nutrition intravenously.ExiledInScotland said:O/T. For any of our medics here; If esophageal cancer has blocked the pipe so much that a rod had to be pushed through before a stent could be fitted, and then the stent has failed, is a feeding tube possible? I can't find anything about this
The prognosis though at this stage is very grim indeed, and palliative care may well be kinder.0 -
So sorry to hear that.ExiledInScotland said:
Thank you. That is what I feared. My brother - nine years older than me.Foxy said:
It is possible to do a feeding gastrostomy. This is an opening from the upper abdomen to the stomach, so food gan go directly into the stomach. It is also possible to do Total Parental Nutrition intravenously.ExiledInScotland said:O/T. For any of our medics here; If esophageal cancer has blocked the pipe so much that a rod had to be pushed through before a stent could be fitted, and then the stent has failed, is a feeding tube possible? I can't find anything about this
The prognosis though at this stage is very grim indeed, and palliative care may well be kinder.0 -
We will find out soon enough...geoffw said:
I agree with you about the ridiculous blame-avoiding. But if France et al just put us out of our misery, I will feel relieved.viewcode said:
I would be bloody furious. One of my hobbyhorses on this board is "failing and blaming": the propensity of British politicians to eschew achievement (which is difficult) in favour of blaming (which is easy). It is the product of a political class which exposes its wanton incompetence and poor morals with increasing frequency.geoffw said:I have had a lingering suspicion for some time that May's running down the clock was not just a device to get others to agree to her deal in panic, but also because she is in reality quite sanguine about a no-deal exit. But she does not want to be blamed for it. Shifting the blame to the EU looks to be her strategy. Not that I'd be displeased with that outcome.
0 -
If we revoke by the will of the HOC I would expect TM to invite an election for her successor in an orderly manner and hand over to her successor, once due process has been completedTGOHF said:
Mrs May would have to resign in that scenario.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They cannot refuse it. That is one constantTGOHF said:
The EU would refuse it unless we either ruled out leaving for 10 years or agreed to a flextension.twistedfirestopper3 said:
If they revoke, then what?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it is true France, Spain and Belgium are going to refuse an extension then the HOC have to decide next ThursdaySouthamObserver said:Well, I gave Mrs May credit for reaching out to Labour and putting country. It looks like I could well have been wrong - as many on here told me I was. I’m still hoping not, though. Surely even she wouldn’t be so stupidly dishonest as that.
TM deal - revoke0 -
Who cares who you would blame? It's the voters' perception of blame that matters.Ishmael_Z said:
In a closely contested field, I think I would blame ERG most, followed by May and Corbyn, followed by the DUP, then the rest of the HoC, then Ireland. I would rank France after all that lot for responsibility for a no deal exit, but saying they are responsible is not the same thing as blaming them. I don't see what they would have done wrong.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is utter nonsense. If France do this it will be France and their supporters who will be blamedTGOHF said:France are now safe to say no extension and turf the Uk out. They wouldn't get the blame.
May - rightly - would.
Win win win all round.
0 -
Jeremy Corbyn pm because the tories will be monsteredtwistedfirestopper3 said:
If they revoke, then what?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it is true France, Spain and Belgium are going to refuse an extension then the HOC have to decide next ThursdaySouthamObserver said:Well, I gave Mrs May credit for reaching out to Labour and putting country. It looks like I could well have been wrong - as many on here told me I was. I’m still hoping not, though. Surely even she wouldn’t be so stupidly dishonest as that.
TM deal - revoke0 -
And meFloater said:
Very sorry to hear that.ExiledInScotland said:
Thank you. That is what I feared. My brother - nine years older than me.Foxy said:
It is possible to do a feeding gastrostomy. This is an opening from the upper abdomen to the stomach, so food gan go directly into the stomach. It is also possible to do Total Parental Nutrition intravenously.ExiledInScotland said:O/T. For any of our medics here; If esophageal cancer has blocked the pipe so much that a rod had to be pushed through before a stent could be fitted, and then the stent has failed, is a feeding tube possible? I can't find anything about this
The prognosis though at this stage is very grim indeed, and palliative care may well be kinder.0 -
Not in this context; I was talking specifically about France, and we don't vote for or against France.geoffw said:
Who cares who you would blame? It's the voters' perception of blame that matters.Ishmael_Z said:
In a closely contested field, I think I would blame ERG most, followed by May and Corbyn, followed by the DUP, then the rest of the HoC, then Ireland. I would rank France after all that lot for responsibility for a no deal exit, but saying they are responsible is not the same thing as blaming them. I don't see what they would have done wrong.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is utter nonsense. If France do this it will be France and their supporters who will be blamedTGOHF said:France are now safe to say no extension and turf the Uk out. They wouldn't get the blame.
May - rightly - would.
Win win win all round.
Except for giving them a real caning at Eurovision, obv.0 -
The issue for the EU27 is not who will be blamed for No Deal by people in the UK, but who will blamed for it in the EU27. One of the things the government got wrong from the very start is its failure to understand that the important thing from a deal perspective was putting the EU27 governments under some kind of pressure in their home countries. Instead, May has constantly chased good headlines at home by pursuing a strategy that has confirmed to just about everyone in all the member states that the UK is almost entirely to blame for the current mess. The only country where there is any kind of pressure on the government is Ireland - and most of that comes from people who think that Varadeker is being too soft on the Brits.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is utter nonsense. If France do this it will be France and their supporters who will be blamedTGOHF said:France are now safe to say no extension and turf the Uk out. They wouldn't get the blame.
May - rightly - would.
Win win win all round.
0 -
More likely Heidi Allen or ChukaFloater said:
Jeremy Corbyn pm because the tories will be monsteredtwistedfirestopper3 said:
If they revoke, then what?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it is true France, Spain and Belgium are going to refuse an extension then the HOC have to decide next ThursdaySouthamObserver said:Well, I gave Mrs May credit for reaching out to Labour and putting country. It looks like I could well have been wrong - as many on here told me I was. I’m still hoping not, though. Surely even she wouldn’t be so stupidly dishonest as that.
TM deal - revoke0 -
The Tories will be out of power for 20 years if we revokeFloater said:
Jeremy Corbyn pm because the tories will be monsteredtwistedfirestopper3 said:
If they revoke, then what?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it is true France, Spain and Belgium are going to refuse an extension then the HOC have to decide next ThursdaySouthamObserver said:Well, I gave Mrs May credit for reaching out to Labour and putting country. It looks like I could well have been wrong - as many on here told me I was. I’m still hoping not, though. Surely even she wouldn’t be so stupidly dishonest as that.
TM deal - revoke0 -
Did that right continue past March 29th?williamglenn said:
The EU can't refuse a revocation as long as it's done in accordance with the UK's constitutional requirements.TGOHF said:
The EU would refuse it unless we either ruled out leaving for 10 years or agreed to a flextension.twistedfirestopper3 said:
If they revoke, then what?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it is true France, Spain and Belgium are going to refuse an extension then the HOC have to decide next ThursdaySouthamObserver said:Well, I gave Mrs May credit for reaching out to Labour and putting country. It looks like I could well have been wrong - as many on here told me I was. I’m still hoping not, though. Surely even she wouldn’t be so stupidly dishonest as that.
TM deal - revoke
0 -
The government, the ERG and the rest of Parliament have done all they can to ensure that the EU will not be blamed for any No Deal.geoffw said:
Who cares who you would blame? It's the voters' perception of blame that matters.Ishmael_Z said:
In a closely contested field, I think I would blame ERG most, followed by May and Corbyn, followed by the DUP, then the rest of the HoC, then Ireland. I would rank France after all that lot for responsibility for a no deal exit, but saying they are responsible is not the same thing as blaming them. I don't see what they would have done wrong.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is utter nonsense. If France do this it will be France and their supporters who will be blamedTGOHF said:France are now safe to say no extension and turf the Uk out. They wouldn't get the blame.
May - rightly - would.
Win win win all round.
0 -
But not if we leave without a deal.Pulpstar said:
The Tories will be out of power for 20 years if we revokeFloater said:
Jeremy Corbyn pm because the tories will be monsteredtwistedfirestopper3 said:
If they revoke, then what?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it is true France, Spain and Belgium are going to refuse an extension then the HOC have to decide next ThursdaySouthamObserver said:Well, I gave Mrs May credit for reaching out to Labour and putting country. It looks like I could well have been wrong - as many on here told me I was. I’m still hoping not, though. Surely even she wouldn’t be so stupidly dishonest as that.
TM deal - revoke
0 -
If you look at the polling in France, a very large number of French voters want the UK out of the EU asap. If Macon were to facilitate that he would probably reap a positive political benefit.0
-
Whilst all that is true, I'm not sure there's much she could have done about it. EU27 governments will nonetheless be aware that they will cop some blame if the no-deal chaos become reality.SouthamObserver said:The issue for the EU27 is not who will be blamed for No Deal by people in the UK, but who will blamed for it in the EU27. One of the things the government got wrong from the very start is its failure to understand that the important thing from a deal perspective was putting the EU27 governments under some kind of pressure in their home countries. Instead, May has constantly chased good headlines at home by pursuing a strategy that has confirmed to just about everyone in all the member states that the UK is almost entirely to blame for the current mess. The only country where there is any kind of pressure on the government is Ireland - and most of that comes from people who think that Varadeker is being too soft on the Brits.
Here's one example of the potential problems they could hit:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/apr/05/eu-confirms-it-wants-short-term-fisheries-arrangement-with-uk-no-deal-brexit-fishing
0 -
We're still full members of the EU the same as we were before the 29th, so yes.philiph said:
Did that right continue past March 29th?williamglenn said:
The EU can't refuse a revocation as long as it's done in accordance with the UK's constitutional requirements.TGOHF said:
The EU would refuse it unless we either ruled out leaving for 10 years or agreed to a flextension.twistedfirestopper3 said:
If they revoke, then what?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it is true France, Spain and Belgium are going to refuse an extension then the HOC have to decide next ThursdaySouthamObserver said:Well, I gave Mrs May credit for reaching out to Labour and putting country. It looks like I could well have been wrong - as many on here told me I was. I’m still hoping not, though. Surely even she wouldn’t be so stupidly dishonest as that.
TM deal - revoke0 -
You are right, more like 30 years.geoffw said:
But not if we leave without a deal.Pulpstar said:
The Tories will be out of power for 20 years if we revokeFloater said:
Jeremy Corbyn pm because the tories will be monsteredtwistedfirestopper3 said:
If they revoke, then what?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it is true France, Spain and Belgium are going to refuse an extension then the HOC have to decide next ThursdaySouthamObserver said:Well, I gave Mrs May credit for reaching out to Labour and putting country. It looks like I could well have been wrong - as many on here told me I was. I’m still hoping not, though. Surely even she wouldn’t be so stupidly dishonest as that.
TM deal - revoke0 -
Every cloud....Floater said:
Jeremy Corbyn pm because the tories will be monsteredtwistedfirestopper3 said:
If they revoke, then what?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it is true France, Spain and Belgium are going to refuse an extension then the HOC have to decide next ThursdaySouthamObserver said:Well, I gave Mrs May credit for reaching out to Labour and putting country. It looks like I could well have been wrong - as many on here told me I was. I’m still hoping not, though. Surely even she wouldn’t be so stupidly dishonest as that.
TM deal - revoke0
