politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we wait for the Newport result an interesting chart on the

MikeL said:

Thought Con vote was meant to be plummeting following this week's events with everyone cutting up membership cards?

As ever, political anoraks on PB are not very representative.

I haven't been on PB for the last few days, but if I had I'd have predicted a relatively close result.

edmundintokyo said:

GIN1138 said:

Labour not doing anywhere near well enough given all the Tory turmoil...

Right, but also no minor party surging ahead to take advantage of their shittiness...

Indeed, remarkably nearly 30% of the vote went to minor parties but only Kippers and PC [only just] managed to hold their deposits. None surged.

williamglenn said:

If the UKIP brand is still in tact, it suggests Farage’s new outfit might struggle in the European elections.

Farage's outfit noticeably didn't stand here.

marke09 said:

LAB-CON swing 2.4%

Add the Crosby Constant of about 4% whatever and it's predicting something like a 6.4% swing to Con. TMay should call that election...

bigjohnowls said:

God I hope I lose a tenner. Hamilton is a racist

Vile man, I can't stand him. Glad to see him not surge.

Philip_Thompson said:

bigjohnowls said:

God I hope I lose a tenner. Hamilton is a racist

Vile man, I can't stand him. Glad to see him not surge.

No, but UKIP vote share up 6% and a solid third.

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

If the UKIP brand is still in tact, it suggests Farage’s new outfit might struggle in the European elections.

Farage's outfit noticeably didn't stand here.

Obviously frit!

Absolutely.

One of those useless facts for election nerds is that the Labour majority of 1,951 is exactly the same as the number of votes Arthur Scargill polled in Newport East in 1997 for the Socialist Labour Party.

TheJezziah said:

HYUFD said:

TheJezziah said:

HYUFD said:

bigjohnowls said:

Plaid say they are 4th

Well looks like Wales will stay with England then whatever happens with Scotland and NI

This part of Wales is terrible for the idea of independence, low Welsh speaking levels and just not generally good hunting ground for Plaid. Places like Newport would be like the bigger cities in Brexit with strong remain/stay votes.

Except Newport voted Leave just as Wales voted Leave.

Still a pretty awful result for Plaid to come behind UKIP even if they were unlikely to win

I meant in a Welsh independence referendum places like Newport would produce the heaviest stay votes in the same way bigger cities (was thinking Manchester, London, Liverpool etc.) did in the Brexit referendum rather than Newport itself was a remainy type place.

Maybe but given Wales almost rejected even having the Welsh Assembly with 49% voting against it and Wales voted Leave just like England the idea there is any real thirst for independence in Wales outside a few parts of the North West and West coast is absurd. Contrast Scotland where I don't think there was a seat the SNP even came third at the last general election let alone 4th

Some Tory to UKIP votes , and quite a lot from Labour to parties supporting a second EU vote .

nico67 said:

Some Tory to UKIP votes , and quite a lot from Labour to parties supporting a second EU vote .

No guarantee of that whatsoever.

Bear in mind the turnout is vastly reduced so comparing like for like is hard, plus UKIP and Neil Hamilton are a nasty anti-Islam party now rather than an anti-EU one.

All in all a fairly boring midterm result.

First reactions to the Newport by-election on both turnout & the result. If I was a Conservative MP who does not have a comfortable majority, I would be worried. But if I was a Labour MP outside London and without a comfortable majority in strong Leave constituency, I would be very worried indeed.

Who is the guest sat on the right? I thought it was Richard Ayoade for a while. Very similar voice.

Philip_Thompson said:

Who is the guest sat on the right? I thought it was Richard Ayoade for a while. Very similar voice.

Stephen Bush.

Philip_Thompson said:

Who is the guest sat on the right? I thought it was Richard Ayoade for a while. Very similar voice.

Stephen Bush, New Statesman. Am I getting old or is he very young?

NickPalmer said:

Not a bad acceptance speech as these things go. Result a bit meh all round.

Incidentally, the Guardian vox pop report on the by-election seems to have been a classic of "find some people to make a story" - the article made it sound as though Renew was having a huge surge, whereas they actually lost their deposit. I suspect the journalist interviewed a lot of people and picked out the ones who fitted the story.

I would definitely suggest that when you have been the main opposition party for nine years, this by election result in what has been a Labour heartland constituency for nearly four decades was definitely a bit meh for you.

TheJezziah said:

fitalass said:

First reactions to the Newport by-election on both turnout & the result. If I was a Conservative MP who does not have a comfortable majority, I would be worried. But if I was a Labour MP outside London and without a comfortable majority in strong Leave constituency, I would be very worried indeed.

Making the calculations though if your closest rival is a Conservative and his vote is also getting split off you are still okay as long as you don't lose your majority plus whatever he loses. Unless UKIP or the Brexit party really step up then most leave constituencies with Labour MPs are fights against the Tories.

But most seats won't have this amount of candidates taking protest votes off both main parties. Also, just look at the pool of Westminster parties trying to fight it out and win the Remain vote now compared to the effective options other than the Conservatives who will really be trying to win the Leave vote? As I said, if I was a Conservative MP who does not have a comfortable majority, I would be worried. But if I was a Labour MP outside London and without a comfortable majority in strong Leave constituency, I would be very worried indeed.

But in a week that has seen uber Brexiteer Conservatives cutting up their membership cards & threatening not to vote Conservative again, there is the same stark message for them that now faces the ERG in Westminster over May's Withdrawal Agreement. When Ukip voters switched to the Conservatives in the 2015 GE, they finally got their EU Referendum, but when the 2017 GE produced Hung Parliament, the writing was on the wall when it came to May's Government being able to deliver on clean cut Brexit they wanted. So basically, nothing less than a strong Conservative majority at the next GE is ever going to see Brexit cross the line in the future.

As I have posted regularly on twitter, the ERG have consistently proved that they collectively lack any political astuteness when it comes to pushing their political agenda. I still find it incredible that the ERG didn't recognise that the DUP were never ever as wedded to delivering on a Brexit deal as they were, the clue really was in the EU Ref result in NI. Basically, no amount of cutting up your Conservative membership cards, voting for minor Brexit parties or voting for an Uber Brexiteer Conservative Leader who turns off most broad church Conservatives is ever going to deliver on Brexit.

TheJezziah said:

fitalass said:

TheJezziah said:

fitalass said:

First reactions to the Newport by-election on both turnout & the result. If I was a Conservative MP who does not have a comfortable majority, I would be worried. But if I was a Labour MP outside London and without a comfortable majority in strong Leave constituency, I would be very worried indeed.

Making the calculations though if your closest rival is a Conservative and his vote is also getting split off you are still okay as long as you don't lose your majority plus whatever he loses. Unless UKIP or the Brexit party really step up then most leave constituencies with Labour MPs are fights against the Tories.

UKIP and the Brexit party. Quantity doesn't really matter, it just means they have more pissed off leavers to themselves.

fitalass said:

But in a week that has seen uber Brexiteer Conservatives cutting up their membership cards & threatening not to vote Conservative again, there is the same stark message for them that now faces the ERG in Westminster over May's Withdrawal Agreement. When Ukip voters switched to the Conservatives in the 2015 GE, they finally got their EU Referendum, but when the 2017 GE produced Hung Parliament, the writing was on the wall when it came to May's Government being able to deliver on clean cut Brexit they wanted. So basically, nothing less than a strong Conservative majority at the next GE is ever going to see Brexit cross the line in the future.

So leavers will make the calculation they have to vote for the major party and do so but remainers won't?

And this after many leavers did make the above calculation and have been annoyed at the Conservatives attempts at Brexit, they will then all plus the ones who didn't last time give them their votes?

Right now, you have a range of centre left parties like the Greens, SNP, Libdems, Tiggers & Labour party already established in Westminster who will all be trying to pitch for all those centre left Remain voters in various constituencies. Don't underestimate the fact that some of those parties have been far clearer on their desire for either another EU Ref or to revoke Article 50 altogether than Corbyn's Labour party. Corbyn has been trying to sit on the fence over Brexit because Lab have so many heartland leave constituencies vs so many London Remain constituencies while playing party politics, the voters are picking up on this disingenuous position.

On the other hand, you have only one centre right party still trying to pitch for leave voters at the next GE and who is currently in any position to deliver, that is the Conservatives. The only three MPs that Ukip ever managed to achieve at Westminster were one indirect, and two direct defections from the Conservative party.