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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we wait for the Newport result an interesting chart on the

SystemSystem Posts: 12,114
edited April 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we wait for the Newport result an interesting chart on the rise Pete Buttigieg for the WH2020 Democratic nomination

Here you can see how @PeteButtigieg has risen in search interest this year.https://t.co/yaz7Sm5f8g pic.twitter.com/78pxqB7TkJ

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    1st
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    Second
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    Herman Cain to join the board of Governors of the Federal Reserve: https://slate.com/business/2019/04/trump-herman-cain-federal-godfathers-help-us.html

    Really.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,892
    edited April 2019
    Only 3-4 hours to go before Neil Hamilton makes a sensational, long awaited return to the House of Commons.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    Nice to see the English Nationalists having kittens on last thread at the thought that we may get some democracy in the UK.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    malcolmg said:

    Nice to see the English Nationalists having kittens on last thread at the thought that we may get some democracy in the UK.

    Its not democracy to have a tiny minority force an unwanted law on the majority. Quite the opposite.

    If the majority of the UK wishes to be out of the Customs Union that should be sufficient. Why should it be held up by diddy regions?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    I guess that given a Lab hold will be hearalded as a triumph even though looking pretty safe, the actual big moment would be if the recent meltdown of the Tories means they don't come second. Would be fun.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Who are Renew?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Artist said:

    Only 3-4 hours to go before Neil Hamilton makes a sensational, long awaited return to the House of Commons.

    He best bloody not.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544
    kle4 said:

    I guess that given a Lab hold will be hearalded as a triumph even though looking pretty safe, the actual big moment would be if the recent meltdown of the Tories means they don't come second. Would be fun.

    If UKIP came 2nd I suspect it would stiffen the resolve of the ERG and undermine May's attempts to find a soft-Brexit compromise.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Benpointer said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Danny565 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Benpointer said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    RobinWiggs said:

    kle4 said:

    Benpointer said:

    https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1113857756463804421

    https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1113858741471010816

    All that talk to come up with the idea of indicative votes again? But for real this time?
    So three options, simultaneous paper ballot next week.

    TM deal.
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights
    TM deal + customs union/workers rights + referendum.

    Middle option wins.

    TM goes off to EUCo and says will put Bill next week in EU agree unconditional extension to 22 May to pass legislation.

    Pipe and slippers time.

    TM resigns, Tory leadership election, winner scraps customs union, Tory Remainers bring down government. Job done. ;)
    You missed a bit.
    Why would they when Tory Remainers [excluding a tiny number of extremists like Grieve] are already backing May's Deal without a customs union?

    Clarke backs a customs union but he also backs May's Deal without a customs union. Though yes a new PM seeking a mandate to drop the customs union from the public at a general election would work too.
    Apparently, part of the deal on a Customs Union would be that the devolved parliaments would get a veto on any future changes to the political declaration - so a Hard Brexiteer becoming PM wouldn't be enough to "drop the customs union", there'd need to be Hard Brexiteers as the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers too.
    That's f***ing stupid if Parliament agrees that. International relations is not a devolved matter.
    No reason why they can't be though. I suspect if the Union is to survive it will have to be as a more federal arrangement. From an English point of view, I am fine with that.
    I'd rather dissolve the Union.
    I'd rather a new, even softer UK Union, than no union at all. If I thought it could have guaranteed the UK Union I would never even have considered Leave. I'd pay almost any price to not have it broken, the Scots, Welsh and No really have me over a barrell in that regard. Though the lord knows the DUP making loving the NI hard sometimes.
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Who are Renew?

    One of the new remainy parties which has been set up in the past few years. Seems like they have actually managed to have more impact than some by even getting onto a ballot.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Who are Renew?

    A pro EU centrist party. Not one that will be getting your vote I imagine :wink:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renew_Party
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    Nice to see the English Nationalists having kittens on last thread at the thought that we may get some democracy in the UK.

    Its not democracy to have a tiny minority force an unwanted law on the majority. Quite the opposite.

    If the majority of the UK wishes to be out of the Customs Union that should be sufficient. Why should it be held up by diddy regions?
    It is not fair that the larger partner browbeats the smaller partners and forces its wishes on them all the time, ignores anything they say or want and treat them like crap. A taste of their own medicine might help England start to get out of the shambles their xenophobia has got them embroiled in with Brexit. A long hard road ahead for England and all self inflicted.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Benpointer said:

    kle4 said:

    I guess that given a Lab hold will be hearalded as a triumph even though looking pretty safe, the actual big moment would be if the recent meltdown of the Tories means they don't come second. Would be fun.

    If UKIP came 2nd I suspect it would stiffen the resolve of the ERG and undermine May's attempts to find a soft-Brexit compromise.
    What if the pro EU Renew party beats UKIP?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    malcolmg said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    tottenhamWC said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I'd rather dissolve the Union.

    That seems to be the policy of ERG and why they will lose
    Feels like a dangerous end game of English nationalism....
    Why is Scottish nationalism something to be proud of but English nationalism is dangerous?

    A Scot feels like he wants Scottish MSPs to set Scottish laws that's viewed as honorable.
    If I say as an Englishman I want English MPs to set English laws then that's dangerous?
    Are yyou so stupid that you don't know that you already set your own laws
    Until we get rid of Scottish, Welsh and NI MPs setting English laws no we bloody well don't. Are you so stupid that you don't know that happens?

    And if diddy regions get a lock on exiting the Customs Union then we'll be trapped even more. Despite the fact that North West England has 33% more population than Scotland and 4x the population of Northern Ireland.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    edited April 2019
    Benpointer said:

    kle4 said:

    I guess that given a Lab hold will be hearalded as a triumph even though looking pretty safe, the actual big moment would be if the recent meltdown of the Tories means they don't come second. Would be fun.

    If UKIP came 2nd I suspect it would stiffen the resolve of the ERG and undermine May's attempts to find a soft-Brexit compromise.
    Walking on egg shells in that regard anyway of course. The cynic in me says Lab winning will be used as 'proof' that they cannot possibly consider not demanding a referendum as the price for any deal.

    But in truth I hope for what I always hope for in by-elections, whoever is the incumbent party - a massive upset. We have too many ultra safe by-elections. This one is not ultra safe, but Peterborough looks more interesting, should we get one as expected.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    malcolmg said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    Nice to see the English Nationalists having kittens on last thread at the thought that we may get some democracy in the UK.

    Its not democracy to have a tiny minority force an unwanted law on the majority. Quite the opposite.

    If the majority of the UK wishes to be out of the Customs Union that should be sufficient. Why should it be held up by diddy regions?
    It is not fair that the larger partner browbeats the smaller partners and forces its wishes on them all the time, ignores anything they say or want and treat them like crap. A taste of their own medicine might help England start to get out of the shambles their xenophobia has got them embroiled in with Brexit. A long hard road ahead for England and all self inflicted.
    Oh boo hoo that's democracy. If you don't like it you can leave. You had your chance in 2014 but were too frit to take it.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2019
    MikeSmithson said:

    Benpointer said:

    kle4 said:

    I guess that given a Lab hold will be hearalded as a triumph even though looking pretty safe, the actual big moment would be if the recent meltdown of the Tories means they don't come second. Would be fun.

    If UKIP came 2nd I suspect it would stiffen the resolve of the ERG and undermine May's attempts to find a soft-Brexit compromise.
    What if the pro EU Renew party beats UKIP?
    Instant revocation, even if they finish 5th and 6th
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    tottenhamWC said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I'd rather dissolve the Union.

    That seems to be the policy of ERG and why they will lose
    Feels like a dangerous end game of English nationalism....
    Why is Scottish nationalism something to be proud of but English nationalism is dangerous?

    A Scot feels like he wants Scottish MSPs to set Scottish laws that's viewed as honorable.
    If I say as an Englishman I want English MPs to set English laws then that's dangerous?
    Are yyou so stupid that you don't know that you already set your own laws
    Until we get rid of Scottish, Welsh and NI MPs setting English laws no we bloody well don't. Are you so stupid that you don't know that happens?

    And if diddy regions get a lock on exiting the Customs Union then we'll be trapped even more. Despite the fact that North West England has 33% more population than Scotland and 4x the population of Northern Ireland.
    Only the pathetic Labour and Tory goons vote in Westminster on English laws. SNP do not vote on any English only matter.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544
    MikeSmithson said:

    Benpointer said:

    kle4 said:

    I guess that given a Lab hold will be hearalded as a triumph even though looking pretty safe, the actual big moment would be if the recent meltdown of the Tories means they don't come second. Would be fun.

    If UKIP came 2nd I suspect it would stiffen the resolve of the ERG and undermine May's attempts to find a soft-Brexit compromise.
    What if the pro EU Renew party beats UKIP?
    That would be marvellous - I can't see it happening though sadly.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    tottenhamWC said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I'd rather dissolve the Union.

    That seems to be the policy of ERG and why they will lose
    Feels like a dangerous end game of English nationalism....
    Why is Scottish nationalism something to be proud of but English nationalism is dangerous?

    A Scot feels like he wants Scottish MSPs to set Scottish laws that's viewed as honorable.
    If I say as an Englishman I want English MPs to set English laws then that's dangerous?
    Are yyou so stupid that you don't know that you already set your own laws
    Until we get rid of Scottish, Welsh and NI MPs setting English laws no we bloody well don't. Are you so stupid that you don't know that happens?
    I though there were now procedures in place with England only committee stages and the like.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Artist said:

    Only 3-4 hours to go before Neil Hamilton makes a sensational, long awaited return to the House of Commons.

    Is Neil Hamilton a 24 hour plumber. Clearly coming from Wales he knows about leaks ....

    Yaki dah ....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544
    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    tottenhamWC said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I'd rather dissolve the Union.

    That seems to be the policy of ERG and why they will lose
    Feels like a dangerous end game of English nationalism....
    Why is Scottish nationalism something to be proud of but English nationalism is dangerous?

    A Scot feels like he wants Scottish MSPs to set Scottish laws that's viewed as honorable.
    If I say as an Englishman I want English MPs to set English laws then that's dangerous?
    Are yyou so stupid that you don't know that you already set your own laws
    Until we get rid of Scottish, Welsh and NI MPs setting English laws no we bloody well don't. Are you so stupid that you don't know that happens?

    And if diddy regions get a lock on exiting the Customs Union then we'll be trapped even more. Despite the fact that North West England has 33% more population than Scotland and 4x the population of Northern Ireland.
    The Tories have been happy to rely on NI votes to prop them up since 2017.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    malcolmg said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    tottenhamWC said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I'd rather dissolve the Union.

    That seems to be the policy of ERG and why they will lose
    Feels like a dangerous end game of English nationalism....
    Why is Scottish nationalism something to be proud of but English nationalism is dangerous?

    A Scot feels like he wants Scottish MSPs to set Scottish laws that's viewed as honorable.
    If I say as an Englishman I want English MPs to set English laws then that's dangerous?
    Are yyou so stupid that you don't know that you already set your own laws
    Until we get rid of Scottish, Welsh and NI MPs setting English laws no we bloody well don't. Are you so stupid that you don't know that happens?

    And if diddy regions get a lock on exiting the Customs Union then we'll be trapped even more. Despite the fact that North West England has 33% more population than Scotland and 4x the population of Northern Ireland.
    Only the pathetic Labour and Tory goons vote in Westminster on English laws. SNP do not vote on any English only matter.
    SNP voted against English Sunday Trading laws being changed to mirror Scottish Sunday Trading laws. English-only MPs would have seen the change go through.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35768674
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Benpointer said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    tottenhamWC said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I'd rather dissolve the Union.

    That seems to be the policy of ERG and why they will lose
    Feels like a dangerous end game of English nationalism....
    Why is Scottish nationalism something to be proud of but English nationalism is dangerous?

    A Scot feels like he wants Scottish MSPs to set Scottish laws that's viewed as honorable.
    If I say as an Englishman I want English MPs to set English laws then that's dangerous?
    Are yyou so stupid that you don't know that you already set your own laws
    Until we get rid of Scottish, Welsh and NI MPs setting English laws no we bloody well don't. Are you so stupid that you don't know that happens?

    And if diddy regions get a lock on exiting the Customs Union then we'll be trapped even more. Despite the fact that North West England has 33% more population than Scotland and 4x the population of Northern Ireland.
    The Tories have been happy to rely on NI votes to prop them up since 2017.
    If NI weren't part of the UK the Tories would have a majority in their own right anyway ...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    Does it matter where UKIP come in this race? Last or second to last really makes no difference.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,527
    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    Nice to see the English Nationalists having kittens on last thread at the thought that we may get some democracy in the UK.

    Its not democracy to have a tiny minority force an unwanted law on the majority. Quite the opposite.

    If the majority of the UK wishes to be out of the Customs Union that should be sufficient. Why should it be held up by diddy regions?
    If the Union is to survive it needs to be in a more federal form. Why should Vermont have as many senators as California? Why should Saarland be as important as Bavaria? Those are the compromises that come with federalism. England is but one part of a union of four parts and this may not have happened if we historically had not thrown our weight around as much. Anyway, I didn’t see you complaining that much about the disproportionate influence a subset of voters in Northern Ireland have had these last couple of years.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    tottenhamWC said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I'd rather dissolve the Union.

    That seems to be the policy of ERG and why they will lose
    Feels like a dangerous end game of English nationalism....
    Why is Scottish nationalism something to be proud of but English nationalism is dangerous?

    A Scot feels like he wants Scottish MSPs to set Scottish laws that's viewed as honorable.
    If I say as an Englishman I want English MPs to set English laws then that's dangerous?
    Are yyou so stupid that you don't know that you already set your own laws
    Until we get rid of Scottish, Welsh and NI MPs setting English laws no we bloody well don't. Are you so stupid that you don't know that happens?
    I though there were now procedures in place with England only committee stages and the like.
    They're weak and only mean that England-only MPs can veto an England-only law but non-English MPs can still veto an England-only law like the Sunday Trading change.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544
    JackW said:

    Artist said:

    Only 3-4 hours to go before Neil Hamilton makes a sensational, long awaited return to the House of Commons.

    Is Neil Hamilton a 24 hour plumber. Clearly coming from Wales he knows about leaks ....

    Yaki dah ....
    A plumber charges less.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Turnout prediction: 34.2%.

    Miserable day. Fatigued electorate. By-election turnout tends to be lower in Lab held seats.

    www.ukpolitical.info/by-election-turnout.htm

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Benpointer said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Benpointer said:

    kle4 said:

    I guess that given a Lab hold will be hearalded as a triumph even though looking pretty safe, the actual big moment would be if the recent meltdown of the Tories means they don't come second. Would be fun.

    If UKIP came 2nd I suspect it would stiffen the resolve of the ERG and undermine May's attempts to find a soft-Brexit compromise.
    What if the pro EU Renew party beats UKIP?
    That would be marvellous - I can't see it happening though sadly.
    I'm told that it has been putting a lot of effort which is why I've risked £4 at 100/1 on it coming second



  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    edited April 2019
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Why should it be held up by diddy regions?

    I never knew you were such a fan of QMV.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DougSeal said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    Nice to see the English Nationalists having kittens on last thread at the thought that we may get some democracy in the UK.

    Its not democracy to have a tiny minority force an unwanted law on the majority. Quite the opposite.

    If the majority of the UK wishes to be out of the Customs Union that should be sufficient. Why should it be held up by diddy regions?
    If the Union is to survive it needs to be in a more federal form. Why should Vermont have as many senators as California? Why should Saarland be as important as Bavaria? Those are the compromises that come with federalism. England is but one part of a union of four parts and this may not have happened if we historically had not thrown our weight around as much. Anyway, I didn’t see you complaining that much about the disproportionate influence a subset of voters in Northern Ireland have had these last couple of years.
    I have said repeatedly I'd be glad to see Northern Ireland leave the union and I would rather dissolve the union than see three diddy regions of the UK get the same weight as England despite all 3 being smaller than the North West.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Why should it be held up by diddy regions?

    I never knew you were such a fan of QMV.
    I'm not, I'm a fan of our Parliament making decisions by itself.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Philip_Thompson said:

    kle4 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    tottenhamWC said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I'd rather dissolve the Union.

    That seems to be the policy of ERG and why they will lose
    Feels like a dangerous end game of English nationalism....
    Why is Scottish nationalism something to be proud of but English nationalism is dangerous?

    A Scot feels like he wants Scottish MSPs to set Scottish laws that's viewed as honorable.
    If I say as an Englishman I want English MPs to set English laws then that's dangerous?
    Are yyou so stupid that you don't know that you already set your own laws
    Until we get rid of Scottish, Welsh and NI MPs setting English laws no we bloody well don't. Are you so stupid that you don't know that happens?
    I though there were now procedures in place with England only committee stages and the like.
    They're weak and only mean that England-only MPs can veto an England-only law but non-English MPs can still veto an England-only law like the Sunday Trading change.
    The balance of the Union is not perfect in many respects. I'm wary of any changes of course, but i'm not throwing the baby out with the bathwater over trying to keep as much of it together as possible when my part of it, and to a lesser extent Wales, has a different stance to the others. I'll see how this goes first.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Why should it be held up by diddy regions?

    I never knew you were such a fan of QMV.
    I'm not, I'm a fan of our Parliament making decisions by itself.
    Although you clearly think "our Parliament" (i.e. an English Parliament) doesn't exist.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    tottenhamWC said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I'd rather dissolve the Union.

    That seems to be the policy of ERG and why they will lose
    Feels like a dangerous end game of English nationalism....
    Why is Scottish nationalism something to be proud of but English nationalism is dangerous?

    A Scot feels like he wants Scottish MSPs to set Scottish laws that's viewed as honorable.
    If I say as an Englishman I want English MPs to set English laws then that's dangerous?
    Are yyou so stupid that you don't know that you already set your own laws
    Until we get rid of Scottish, Welsh and NI MPs setting English laws no we bloody well don't. Are you so stupid that you don't know that happens?

    And if diddy regions get a lock on exiting the Customs Union then we'll be trapped even more. Despite the fact that North West England has 33% more population than Scotland and 4x the population of Northern Ireland.
    There are 532 English constituencies in the 650 UK House of Commons. Not quite sure why England isn't able to set laws to their hearts content ?!?!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Every time I mention I would rather England be an independent nation its met with shock and outrage at such a preposterous suggestion.

    Every time a Scot says they'd rather Scotland be an independent nation its met with understanding and either polite disagreement or agreement. No shock, no outrage.

    English independence should be no more shocking a desire than Scottish.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Benpointer said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    tottenhamWC said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I'd rather dissolve the Union.

    That seems to be the policy of ERG and why they will lose
    Feels like a dangerous end game of English nationalism....
    Why is Scottish nationalism something to be proud of but English nationalism is dangerous?

    A Scot feels like he wants Scottish MSPs to set Scottish laws that's viewed as honorable.
    If I say as an Englishman I want English MPs to set English laws then that's dangerous?
    Are yyou so stupid that you don't know that you already set your own laws
    Until we get rid of Scottish, Welsh and NI MPs setting English laws no we bloody well don't. Are you so stupid that you don't know that happens?

    And if diddy regions get a lock on exiting the Customs Union then we'll be trapped even more. Despite the fact that North West England has 33% more population than Scotland and 4x the population of Northern Ireland.
    The Tories have been happy to rely on NI votes to prop them up since 2017.
    If NI weren't part of the UK the Tories would have a majority in their own right anyway ...
    Not now they wouldn't.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,160
    On at 110 for Dem nominee!

    Go Pete
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544
    MikeSmithson said:

    Benpointer said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Benpointer said:

    kle4 said:

    I guess that given a Lab hold will be hearalded as a triumph even though looking pretty safe, the actual big moment would be if the recent meltdown of the Tories means they don't come second. Would be fun.

    If UKIP came 2nd I suspect it would stiffen the resolve of the ERG and undermine May's attempts to find a soft-Brexit compromise.
    What if the pro EU Renew party beats UKIP?
    That would be marvellous - I can't see it happening though sadly.
    I'm told that it has been putting a lot of effort which is why I've risked £4 at 100/1 on it coming second



    I hope you win that £400!
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,527
    Philip_Thompson said:

    kle4 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    tottenhamWC said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I'd rather dissolve the Union.

    That seems to be the policy of ERG and why they will lose
    Feels like a dangerous end game of English nationalism....
    Why is Scottish nationalism something to be proud of but English nationalism is dangerous?

    A Scot feels like he wants Scottish MSPs to set Scottish laws that's viewed as honorable.
    If I say as an Englishman I want English MPs to set English laws then that's dangerous?
    Are yyou so stupid that you don't know that you already set your own laws
    Until we get rid of Scottish, Welsh and NI MPs setting English laws no we bloody well don't. Are you so stupid that you don't know that happens?
    I though there were now procedures in place with England only committee stages and the like.
    They're weak and only mean that England-only MPs can veto an England-only law but non-English MPs can still veto an England-only law like the Sunday Trading change.
    But so called “English” laws still effect them. As you well know, for example, the Barnett formula automatically adjusts the amounts of public expenditure allocated to Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales to reflect changes in spending levels allocated to public services in England. So if English MPs voted a decrease in spending there would be a proportionate decrease in the allocation of funds to the devolved nations, so it is fair their MPs can vote on such matters even if the spending concerned effects only England. Given Westminster can legally override the devolved legislatures, and has a vast English majority, there has to be a quid pro quo.
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606
    Plaid will do well but Labour will hold.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    tottenhamWC said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I'd rather dissolve the Union.

    That seems to be the policy of ERG and why they will lose
    Feels like a dangerous end game of English nationalism....
    Why is Scottish nationalism something to be proud of but English nationalism is dangerous?

    A Scot feels like he wants Scottish MSPs to set Scottish laws that's viewed as honorable.
    If I say as an Englishman I want English MPs to set English laws then that's dangerous?
    Are yyou so stupid that you don't know that you already set your own laws
    And if diddy regions get a lock on exiting the Customs Union then we'll be trapped even more. Despite the fact that North West England has 33% more population than Scotland and 4x the population of Northern Ireland.
    Well yes, but they are true constituent elements of the union, not sub regions of England, of course they get more consideration than regions of England, why wouldn't they? I'm not saying the other countries should ride roughshod over England, but they are not comparable in sovereign terms even with smaller populations.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544
    RobinWiggs said:

    Turnout prediction: 34.2%.

    Miserable day. Fatigued electorate. By-election turnout tends to be lower in Lab held seats.

    www.ukpolitical.info/by-election-turnout.htm

    That low turnout could help Mike's bet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Every time I mention I would rather England be an independent nation its met with shock and outrage at such a preposterous suggestion.

    Every time a Scot says they'd rather Scotland be an independent nation its met with understanding and either polite disagreement or agreement. No shock, no outrage.

    English independence should be no more shocking a desire than Scottish.

    It's a valid view to hold. It is not one I share, but you do you.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,527
    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Why should it be held up by diddy regions?

    I never knew you were such a fan of QMV.
    I'm not, I'm a fan of our Parliament making decisions by itself.
    “Our Parliament” ????
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Every time I mention I would rather England be an independent nation its met with shock and outrage at such a preposterous suggestion.

    Every time a Scot says they'd rather Scotland be an independent nation its met with understanding and either polite disagreement or agreement. No shock, no outrage.

    English independence should be no more shocking a desire than Scottish.

    No, but you have to understand that English independence means Scottish and Welsh independence and a reunited Ireland. Personally I'm in favour of all those things, but I'd prefer all four "home nations" to be in the EU.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    edited April 2019
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Every time I mention I would rather England be an independent nation its met with shock and outrage at such a preposterous suggestion.

    Every time a Scot says they'd rather Scotland be an independent nation its met with understanding and either polite disagreement or agreement. No shock, no outrage.

    English independence should be no more shocking a desire than Scottish.

    I think English independence would reconcile England to being part of the family of European nations within the EU.

    It's the continuing existence of the UK that simultaneously denies the English a political identity, and gives England a feeling that it doesn't belong in an entity like the EU.
  • initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 736
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Every time I mention I would rather England be an independent nation its met with shock and outrage at such a preposterous suggestion.

    Every time a Scot says they'd rather Scotland be an independent nation its met with understanding and either polite disagreement or agreement. No shock, no outrage.

    English independence should be no more shocking a desire than Scottish.

    As an Englishman living in Scotland I'm surprised more of my fellow countrymen aren't outraged by assymetric devolution. It's one of the reasons I voted for Scottish independence, but then the idiots in London thought the answer to avoiding a yes vote was to promise even more asymmetric devolution. FFS!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Why should it be held up by diddy regions?

    I never knew you were such a fan of QMV.
    I'm not, I'm a fan of our Parliament making decisions by itself.
    So am I. They are doing a great job at the moment.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    JackW said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    tottenhamWC said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I'd rather dissolve the Union.

    That seems to be the policy of ERG and why they will lose
    Feels like a dangerous end game of English nationalism....
    Why is Scottish nationalism something to be proud of but English nationalism is dangerous?

    A Scot feels like he wants Scottish MSPs to set Scottish laws that's viewed as honorable.
    If I say as an Englishman I want English MPs to set English laws then that's dangerous?
    Are yyou so stupid that you don't know that you already set your own laws
    Until we get rid of Scottish, Welsh and NI MPs setting English laws no we bloody well don't. Are you so stupid that you don't know that happens?

    And if diddy regions get a lock on exiting the Customs Union then we'll be trapped even more. Despite the fact that North West England has 33% more population than Scotland and 4x the population of Northern Ireland.
    There are 532 English constituencies in the 650 UK House of Commons. Not quite sure why England isn't able to set laws to their hearts content ?!?!
    296 / 532 English MPs are Tories. That's a majority of 60.

    Do the Tories have a majority of 60 in Parliament?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,544
    Philip_Thompson said:

    JackW said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    tottenhamWC said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I'd rather dissolve the Union.

    That seems to be the policy of ERG and why they will lose
    Feels like a dangerous end game of English nationalism....
    Why is Scottish nationalism something to be proud of but English nationalism is dangerous?

    A Scot feels like he wants Scottish MSPs to set Scottish laws that's viewed as honorable.
    If I say as an Englishman I want English MPs to set English laws then that's dangerous?
    Are yyou so stupid that you don't know that you already set your own laws
    Until we get rid of Scottish, Welsh and NI MPs setting English laws no we bloody well don't. Are you so stupid that you don't know that happens?

    And if diddy regions get a lock on exiting the Customs Union then we'll be trapped even more. Despite the fact that North West England has 33% more population than Scotland and 4x the population of Northern Ireland.
    There are 532 English constituencies in the 650 UK House of Commons. Not quite sure why England isn't able to set laws to their hearts content ?!?!
    296 / 532 English MPs are Tories. That's a majority of 60.

    Do the Tories have a majority of 60 in Parliament?
    No, thank God!
  • initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 736
    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Every time I mention I would rather England be an independent nation its met with shock and outrage at such a preposterous suggestion.

    Every time a Scot says they'd rather Scotland be an independent nation its met with understanding and either polite disagreement or agreement. No shock, no outrage.

    English independence should be no more shocking a desire than Scottish.

    I think English independence would reconcile England to being part of the family of European nations within the EU.

    It's the continuing existence of the UK that simultaneously denies English a political identity, and gives England a feeling that it doesn't belong in an entity like the EU.
    And one of the other reasons for voting for Scottish independence was that it would increase the likelihood of England leaving the EU!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DougSeal said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Why should it be held up by diddy regions?

    I never knew you were such a fan of QMV.
    I'm not, I'm a fan of our Parliament making decisions by itself.
    “Our Parliament” ????
    Yes, Westminster. That's our Parliament. Has been since the 13th century (14th for Commons).
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Benpointer said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    JackW said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    tottenhamWC said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I'd rather dissolve the Union.

    That seems to be the policy of ERG and why they will lose
    Feels like a dangerous end game of English nationalism....
    Why is Scottish nationalism something to be proud of but English nationalism is dangerous?

    A Scot feels like he wants Scottish MSPs to set Scottish laws that's viewed as honorable.
    If I say as an Englishman I want English MPs to set English laws then that's dangerous?
    Are yyou so stupid that you don't know that you already set your own laws
    Until we get rid of Scottish, Welsh and NI MPs setting English laws no we bloody well don't. Are you so stupid that you don't know that happens?

    And if diddy regions get a lock on exiting the Customs Union then we'll be trapped even more. Despite the fact that North West England has 33% more population than Scotland and 4x the population of Northern Ireland.
    There are 532 English constituencies in the 650 UK House of Commons. Not quite sure why England isn't able to set laws to their hearts content ?!?!
    296 / 532 English MPs are Tories. That's a majority of 60.

    Do the Tories have a majority of 60 in Parliament?
    No, thank God!
    They should for English-only laws.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited April 2019
    rpjs said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Every time I mention I would rather England be an independent nation its met with shock and outrage at such a preposterous suggestion.

    Every time a Scot says they'd rather Scotland be an independent nation its met with understanding and either polite disagreement or agreement. No shock, no outrage.

    English independence should be no more shocking a desire than Scottish.

    No, but you have to understand that English independence means Scottish and Welsh independence and a reunited Ireland. Personally I'm in favour of all those things, but I'd prefer all four "home nations" to be in the EU.
    I'm in favour of all those things. I'd prefer England to have a free trade deal with the EU and Common Travel Area with the other Home Nations [as we have had with Ireland long since before the EU existed]

    I couldn't care less whether Wales or Scotland are in the EU or not but either way we should have a free trade deal with them.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,381
    edited April 2019
    Northumberland independence tbh. Lets’s balkanise this island. 💪
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DougSeal said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    kle4 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    tottenhamWC said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I'd rather dissolve the Union.

    That seems to be the policy of ERG and why they will lose
    Feels like a dangerous end game of English nationalism....
    Why is Scottish nationalism something to be proud of but English nationalism is dangerous?

    A Scot feels like he wants Scottish MSPs to set Scottish laws that's viewed as honorable.
    If I say as an Englishman I want English MPs to set English laws then that's dangerous?
    Are yyou so stupid that you don't know that you already set your own laws
    Until we get rid of Scottish, Welsh and NI MPs setting English laws no we bloody well don't. Are you so stupid that you don't know that happens?
    I though there were now procedures in place with England only committee stages and the like.
    They're weak and only mean that England-only MPs can veto an England-only law but non-English MPs can still veto an England-only law like the Sunday Trading change.
    But so called “English” laws still effect them. As you well know, for example, the Barnett formula automatically adjusts the amounts of public expenditure allocated to Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales to reflect changes in spending levels allocated to public services in England. So if English MPs voted a decrease in spending there would be a proportionate decrease in the allocation of funds to the devolved nations, so it is fair their MPs can vote on such matters even if the spending concerned effects only England. Given Westminster can legally override the devolved legislatures, and has a vast English majority, there has to be a quid pro quo.
    If we dissolve the union and eliminate the Barnett formula the English can decide what they want to spend their money on, the Scots can decide what they want to spend their money on and everyone can act like actual grown ups. Win, win.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    To think it was only yesterday the Tories were moaning about setting precedents that could be misused in the future.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Gallowgate said:

    Northumberland independence tbh. Lets’s balkanise this island. 💪

    Then Newcastle United can join the SPL where they'd have chance
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Philip_Thompson said:

    JackW said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    tottenhamWC said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I'd rather dissolve the Union.

    That seems to be the policy of ERG and why they will lose
    Feels like a dangerous end game of English nationalism....
    Why is Scottish nationalism something to be proud of but English nationalism is dangerous?

    A Scot feels like he wants Scottish MSPs to set Scottish laws that's viewed as honorable.
    If I say as an Englishman I want English MPs to set English laws then that's dangerous?
    Are yyou so stupid that you don't know that you already set your own laws
    Until we get rid of Scottish, Welsh and NI MPs setting English laws no we bloody well don't. Are you so stupid that you don't know that happens?

    And if diddy regions get a lock on exiting the Customs Union then we'll be trapped even more. Despite the fact that North West England has 33% more population than Scotland and 4x the population of Northern Ireland.
    There are 532 English constituencies in the 650 UK House of Commons. Not quite sure why England isn't able to set laws to their hearts content ?!?!
    296 / 532 English MPs are Tories. That's a majority of 60.

    Do the Tories have a majority of 60 in Parliament?
    For you England means Conservative. It's the Conservative and Unionist Party for a reason, not the English National Party.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,381
    MikeSmithson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Northumberland independence tbh. Lets’s balkanise this island. 💪

    Then Newcastle United can join the SPL where they'd have chance
    Oh. Burn. :s
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,527
    Philip_Thompson said:

    DougSeal said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Why should it be held up by diddy regions?

    I never knew you were such a fan of QMV.
    I'm not, I'm a fan of our Parliament making decisions by itself.
    “Our Parliament” ????
    Yes, Westminster. That's our Parliament. Has been since the 13th century (14th for Commons).
    That is shocking historical ignorance. Being sited in the same place is where he continuity ends. The current UK Parliament is the result of two mergers - one in 1707 and one in 1801 - with other nations’ parliaments that produced a new one on each occasion. Our Parliament is younger than the US Congress even. We are currently on the 57th Parliament of the UK, the first having sat only in 1801. Even the building it sits in now has never been an exclusively English Parliament.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    MikeSmithson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Northumberland independence tbh. Lets’s balkanise this island. 💪

    Then Newcastle United can join the SPL where they'd have chance
    Chortle .... :smiley:
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,320
    MikeSmithson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Northumberland independence tbh. Lets’s balkanise this island. 💪

    Then Newcastle United can join the SPL where they'd have chance
    Nah. Stick with Northumberland only. They could give Blyth Spartans a run for their money.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    JackW said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    JackW said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    tottenhamWC said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I'd rather dissolve the Union.

    That seems to be the policy of ERG and why they will lose
    Feels like a dangerous end game of English nationalism....
    Why is Scottish nationalism something to be proud of but English nationalism is dangerous?

    A Scot feels like he wants Scottish MSPs to set Scottish laws that's viewed as honorable.
    If I say as an Englishman I want English MPs to set English laws then that's dangerous?
    Are yyou so stupid that you don't know that you already set your own laws
    Until we get rid of Scottish, Welsh and NI MPs setting English laws no we bloody well don't. Are you so stupid that you don't know that happens?

    And if diddy regions get a lock on exiting the Customs Union then we'll be trapped even more. Despite the fact that North West England has 33% more population than Scotland and 4x the population of Northern Ireland.
    There are 532 English constituencies in the 650 UK House of Commons. Not quite sure why England isn't able to set laws to their hearts content ?!?!
    296 / 532 English MPs are Tories. That's a majority of 60.

    Do the Tories have a majority of 60 in Parliament?
    For you England means Conservative. It's the Conservative and Unionist Party for a reason, not the English National Party.
    Yes I'm a Conservative, I am not a Unionist. I've never made a secret of that and I wanted Yes to win in 2014 but the Scots were too frit to take the opportunity of independence, unlike the Welsh and English in 2016 which is why the SNP are so upset now.

    I understand that I am not the same as other Conservatives who are Unionists but then I am a great believer in individualism and not collectivism which is what draws me to the Conservative way of thinking in the first place. So I see no reason why I have to bend to Collective thinking.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    IanB2 said:

    To think it was only yesterday the Tories were moaning about setting precedents that could be misused in the future.

    Well one man's constitutional vandalism is another's necessary tinkering. There's easy examples of hypocrisies on such topics from either angle.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    edited April 2019
    Philip_Thompson said:

    JackW said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    JackW said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    tottenhamWC said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I'd rather dissolve the Union.

    That seems to be the policy of ERG and why they will lose
    Feels like a dangerous end game of English nationalism....
    Why is Scottish nationalism something to be proud of but English nationalism is dangerous?

    A Scot feels like he wants Scottish MSPs to set Scottish laws that's viewed as honorable.
    If I say as an Englishman I want English MPs to set English laws then that's dangerous?
    Are yyou so stupid that you don't know that you already set your own laws
    Until we get rid of Scottish, Welsh and NI MPs setting English laws no we bloody well don't. Are you so stupid that you don't know that happens?

    And if diddy regions get a lock on exiting the Customs Union then we'll be trapped even more. Despite the fact that North West England has 33% more population than Scotland and 4x the population of Northern Ireland.
    There are 532 English constituencies in the 650 UK House of Commons. Not quite sure why England isn't able to set laws to their hearts content ?!?!
    296 / 532 English MPs are Tories. That's a majority of 60.

    Do the Tories have a majority of 60 in Parliament?
    For you England means Conservative. It's the Conservative and Unionist Party for a reason, not the English National Party.
    Yes I'm a Conservative, I am not a Unionist. I've never made a secret of that and I wanted Yes to win in 2014 but the Scots were too frit to take the opportunity of independence, unlike the Welsh and English in 2016 which is why the SNP are so upset now.

    I understand that I am not the same as other Conservatives who are Unionists but then I am a great believer in individualism and not collectivism which is what draws me to the Conservative way of thinking in the first place. So I see no reason why I have to bend to Collective thinking.
    Fair enough. But you do expect other Conservatives in parliament to bend to collective thinking on no deal or harder deals don't you (collective meaning the members, given the collective in parliament has a majority for deal)?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Every time I mention I would rather England be an independent nation its met with shock and outrage at such a preposterous suggestion.

    Every time a Scot says they'd rather Scotland be an independent nation its met with understanding and either polite disagreement or agreement. No shock, no outrage.

    English independence should be no more shocking a desire than Scottish.

    I think English independence would reconcile England to being part of the family of European nations within the EU.

    It's the continuing existence of the UK that simultaneously denies the English a political identity, and gives England a feeling that it doesn't belong in an entity like the EU.
    I think you are absolutely right. This is the root of the whole issue.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DougSeal said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    DougSeal said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Why should it be held up by diddy regions?

    I never knew you were such a fan of QMV.
    I'm not, I'm a fan of our Parliament making decisions by itself.
    “Our Parliament” ????
    Yes, Westminster. That's our Parliament. Has been since the 13th century (14th for Commons).
    That is shocking historical ignorance. Being sited in the same place is where he continuity ends. The current UK Parliament is the result of two mergers - one in 1707 and one in 1801 - with other nations’ parliaments that produced a new one on each occasion. Our Parliament is younger than the US Congress even. We are currently on the 57th Parliament of the UK, the first having sat only in 1801. Even the building it sits in now has never been an exclusively English Parliament.
    I never said it was English only all that time. But whether pre-1707 or post it has been 'ours' all along. Ours as part of England, or ours as part of the UK.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,527
    Philip_Thompson said:

    rpjs said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Every time I mention I would rather England be an independent nation its met with shock and outrage at such a preposterous suggestion.

    Every time a Scot says they'd rather Scotland be an independent nation its met with understanding and either polite disagreement or agreement. No shock, no outrage.

    English independence should be no more shocking a desire than Scottish.

    No, but you have to understand that English independence means Scottish and Welsh independence and a reunited Ireland. Personally I'm in favour of all those things, but I'd prefer all four "home nations" to be in the EU.
    I'm in favour of all those things. I'd prefer England to have a free trade deal with the EU and Common Travel Area with the other Home Nations [as we have had with Ireland long since before the EU existed]

    I couldn't care less whether Wales or Scotland are in the EU or not but either way we should have a free trade deal with them.
    It would be simpler if we all were regions of the EU. We’d be better governed as the current farce proves, National identity should not be about farcical notions of sovereignty based on a massive over simplification of the Treaty of Westphalia.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Mayor Pete may well not have long in the spotlight, who knows, so it's fun to track an underdog while he's there.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The problem of demos revolves around London not Scotland. London is far more different from the rest of the UK than other component parts are from each other.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,527
    Philip_Thompson said:

    DougSeal said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    DougSeal said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Why should it be held up by diddy regions?

    I never knew you were such a fan of QMV.
    I'm not, I'm a fan of our Parliament making decisions by itself.
    “Our Parliament” ????
    Yes, Westminster. That's our Parliament. Has been since the 13th century (14th for Commons).
    That is shocking historical ignorance. Being sited in the same place is where he continuity ends. The current UK Parliament is the result of two mergers - one in 1707 and one in 1801 - with other nations’ parliaments that produced a new one on each occasion. Our Parliament is younger than the US Congress even. We are currently on the 57th Parliament of the UK, the first having sat only in 1801. Even the building it sits in now has never been an exclusively English Parliament.
    I never said it was English only all that time. But whether pre-1707 or post it has been 'ours' all along. Ours as part of England, or ours as part of the UK.
    There is no “it”. The Parliament that sits in Westminster has only existed since 1801. The English Parliament of the 13th century was abolished in 1707. It’s a different institution that belongs as much to he Scots as to us. We don’t get to claim exclusive rights over it as it has never been purely English.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,120
    edited April 2019
    Anyone know if the Conservatives have even campaigned in Newport West? Has anyone from the Cabinet visited?

    I mean bearing mind Labour only won this with a 5,000 majority in 2017 so in the right circumstances it should be competitive for Con.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone know if the Conservatives have even campaigned in Newport West? Has anyone from the Cabinet visited?

    I mean bearing mind Labour only won this with a 5,000 majority in 2017 so in the right circumstances it should be competitive for Con.

    In the 2017 locals the Tories were only 1% behind
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone know if the Conservatives have even campaigned in Newport West? Has anyone from the Cabinet visited?

    I mean bearing mind Labour only won this with a 3,000 majority in 2017 so in the right circumstances it should be competitive for Con.

    Those circumstances probably not a by-election, where oppositions typically do better, while the government is in complete paralysis and the party in open war with itself.

    Doesn't look at a glance like anyone has been.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,120
    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone know if the Conservatives have even campaigned in Newport West? Has anyone from the Cabinet visited?

    I mean bearing mind Labour only won this with a 5,000 majority in 2017 so in the right circumstances it should be competitive for Con.

    In the 2017 locals the Tories were only 1% behind
    That's what I mean and yet we've heard absolutely nothing about Con campaigning here?

    Looks like it will end up another mess up from Theresa May's Conservatives...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    kle4 said:

    Mayor Pete may well not have long in the spotlight, who knows, so it's fun to track an underdog while he's there.

    I missed the boat on this one. I cannot see Trumpland voting for him.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone know if the Conservatives have even campaigned in Newport West? Has anyone from the Cabinet visited?

    I mean bearing mind Labour only won this with a 5,000 majority in 2017 so in the right circumstances it should be competitive for Con.

    Con candidate sounds super hopeful...

    https://www.twitter.com/matthewevansnpt/status/1113909799522009089

    And yes, Amber Rudd, ha.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    brokenwheel said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone know if the Conservatives have even campaigned in Newport West? Has anyone from the Cabinet visited?

    I mean bearing mind Labour only won this with a 5,000 majority in 2017 so in the right circumstances it should be competitive for Con.

    Con candidate sounds super hopeful...

    https://www.twitter.com/matthewevansnpt/status/1113909799522009089
    .
    Blimey. Shock of the night if he's even come close if that's the sign off for the campaign.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    JackW said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    JackW said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    tottenhamWC said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I'd rather dissolve the Union.

    That seems to be the policy of ERG and why they will lose
    Feels like a dangerous end game of English nationalism....
    Why is Scottish nationalism something to be proud of but English nationalism is dangerous?

    A Scot feels like he wants Scottish MSPs to set Scottish laws that's viewed as honorable.
    If I say as an Englishman I want English MPs to set English laws then that's dangerous?
    Are yyou so stupid that you don't know that you already set your own laws
    Until we get rid of Scottish, Welsh and NI MPs setting English laws no we bloody well don't. Are you so stupid that you don't know that happens?

    And if diddy regions get a lock on exiting the Customs Union then we'll be trapped even more. Despite the fact that North West England has 33% more population than Scotland and 4x the population of Northern Ireland.
    There are 532 English constituencies in the 650 UK House of Commons. Not quite sure why England isn't able to set laws to their hearts content ?!?!
    296 / 532 English MPs are Tories. That's a majority of 60.

    Do the Tories have a majority of 60 in Parliament?
    For you England means Conservative. It's the Conservative and Unionist Party for a reason, not the English National Party.
    Yes I'm a Conservative, I am not a Unionist. I've never made a secret of that and I wanted Yes to win in 2014 but the Scots were too frit to take the opportunity of independence, unlike the Welsh and English in 2016 which is why the SNP are so upset now.

    I understand that I am not the same as other Conservatives who are Unionists but then I am a great believer in individualism and not collectivism which is what draws me to the Conservative way of thinking in the first place. So I see no reason why I have to bend to Collective thinking.
    Fair enough. But you do expect other Conservatives in parliament to bend to collective thinking on no deal or harder deals don't you (collective meaning the members, given the collective in parliament has a majority for deal)?
    No I don't expect them to. I have zero expectations that Grieve or Clarke will bend to collective thinking on no deal or harder deals. Nor necessarily should they, if every Party MP thought like a part of a Borg Collective I don't think that would be progress.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,120
    brokenwheel said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone know if the Conservatives have even campaigned in Newport West? Has anyone from the Cabinet visited?

    I mean bearing mind Labour only won this with a 5,000 majority in 2017 so in the right circumstances it should be competitive for Con.

    Con candidate sounds super hopeful...

    https://www.twitter.com/matthewevansnpt/status/1113909799522009089

    And yes, Amber Rudd, ha.
    LOL! That sounds like he's going to come about 6th or something! :D
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    rpjs said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Every time I mention I would rather England be an independent nation its met with shock and outrage at such a preposterous suggestion.

    Every time a Scot says they'd rather Scotland be an independent nation its met with understanding and either polite disagreement or agreement. No shock, no outrage.

    English independence should be no more shocking a desire than Scottish.

    I think English independence would reconcile England to being part of the family of European nations within the EU.

    It's the continuing existence of the UK that simultaneously denies the English a political identity, and gives England a feeling that it doesn't belong in an entity like the EU.
    I think you are absolutely right. This is the root of the whole issue.
    I used to find it strange that the UK - a multinational entity - should have such a problem with being part of the EU - a multinational entity - but the critical difference is that England dominates the UK, and from that position of dominance has made certain concessions to the other constituent nations - such as the continuance of a separate legal system in Scotland.

    England could not conceive of the EU but in the same terms, and so if England was not dominating the EU then other countries must have been doing so, and thereby dominating England. But the EU is a construct based on treaty law, just as we are seeing with the difficulties around the European Parliament elections, and so no country dominates it in the fashion that England dominates the UK.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    brokenwheel said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone know if the Conservatives have even campaigned in Newport West? Has anyone from the Cabinet visited?

    I mean bearing mind Labour only won this with a 5,000 majority in 2017 so in the right circumstances it should be competitive for Con.

    Con candidate sounds super hopeful...

    https://www.twitter.com/matthewevansnpt/status/1113909799522009089

    And yes, Amber Rudd, ha.
    Amber doesn't shrink from the hard yards, stood in for Theresa in the debates despite domestic issues.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Despite everything, haven't the Tories been doing reasonably well in recent local council by-elections?

    It wouldn't shock me if there was a net swing from Labour to Tory, but I wouldn't have thought it would be enough to win.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,253
    Philip_Thompson said:

    DougSeal said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    DougSeal said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Why should it be held up by diddy regions?

    I never knew you were such a fan of QMV.
    I'm not, I'm a fan of our Parliament making decisions by itself.
    “Our Parliament” ????
    Yes, Westminster. That's our Parliament. Has been since the 13th century (14th for Commons).
    That is shocking historical ignorance. Being sited in the same place is where he continuity ends. The current UK Parliament is the result of two mergers - one in 1707 and one in 1801 - with other nations’ parliaments that produced a new one on each occasion. Our Parliament is younger than the US Congress even. We are currently on the 57th Parliament of the UK, the first having sat only in 1801. Even the building it sits in now has never been an exclusively English Parliament.
    I never said it was English only all that time. But whether pre-1707 or post it has been 'ours' all along. Ours as part of England, or ours as part of the UK.
    If it is 'ours' as part of the UK then surely that makes it as much 'ours' to the Scots, Welsh and Irish as it is to the English. Trying to claim some sort of English superior claim over it is rather misguided.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone know if the Conservatives have even campaigned in Newport West? Has anyone from the Cabinet visited?

    I mean bearing mind Labour only won this with a 5,000 majority in 2017 so in the right circumstances it should be competitive for Con.

    It was narrowly Tory back in 1983.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    kle4 said:

    Mayor Pete may well not have long in the spotlight, who knows, so it's fun to track an underdog while he's there.

    So, you reckon he'll just be a one term President, then?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Yes I'm a Conservative, I am not a Unionist. I've never made a secret of that and I wanted Yes to win in 2014 but the Scots were too frit to take the opportunity of independence, unlike the Welsh and English in 2016 which is why the SNP are so upset now.

    I understand that I am not the same as other Conservatives who are Unionists but then I am a great believer in individualism and not collectivism which is what draws me to the Conservative way of thinking in the first place. So I see no reason why I have to bend to Collective thinking.

    Being a Unionist is central to the belief system of the Conservatives, so much so they say what they are on the tin.

    You may call yourself a turnip if you wish but I would deny your viability as a root vegetable. Similarly you may wish to assume the rigour of a Conservative but you fail in the most fundamentals of the British Conservative - the belief in the Union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Ave it says CON has done well!

    No one is voting LAB any more as they are official REMAIN party!

    #francoisforpm
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DougSeal said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    DougSeal said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    DougSeal said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Why should it be held up by diddy regions?

    I never knew you were such a fan of QMV.
    I'm not, I'm a fan of our Parliament making decisions by itself.
    “Our Parliament” ????
    Yes, Westminster. That's our Parliament. Has been since the 13th century (14th for Commons).
    That is shocking historical ignorance. Being sited in the same place is where he continuity ends. The current UK Parliament is the result of two mergers - one in 1707 and one in 1801 - with other nations’ parliaments that produced a new one on each occasion. Our Parliament is younger than the US Congress even. We are currently on the 57th Parliament of the UK, the first having sat only in 1801. Even the building it sits in now has never been an exclusively English Parliament.
    I never said it was English only all that time. But whether pre-1707 or post it has been 'ours' all along. Ours as part of England, or ours as part of the UK.
    There is no “it”. The Parliament that sits in Westminster has only existed since 1801. The English Parliament of the 13th century was abolished in 1707. It’s a different institution that belongs as much to he Scots as to us. We don’t get to claim exclusive rights over it as it has never been purely English.
    There is a continuum of its. If you want to be pedantic this Parliament has only existed since 2017. The English Parliament of the 13th century wasn't abolished, it was merged into the 1707 Parliament.

    I never claimed exclusive rights to it. The definition of "ours" is something belonging to the speaker [myself] and others. The Scots are within the others since 1707.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,120
    Ave_it said:

    Ave it says CON has done well!

    No one is voting LAB any more as they are official REMAIN party!

    #francoisforpm

    :D:D:D
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    DougSeal said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    DougSeal said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Why should it be held up by diddy regions?

    I never knew you were such a fan of QMV.
    I'm not, I'm a fan of our Parliament making decisions by itself.
    “Our Parliament” ????
    Yes, Westminster. That's our Parliament. Has been since the 13th century (14th for Commons).
    That is shocking historical ignorance. Being sited in the same place is where he continuity ends. The current UK Parliament is the result of two mergers - one in 1707 and one in 1801 - with other nations’ parliaments that produced a new one on each occasion. Our Parliament is younger than the US Congress even. We are currently on the 57th Parliament of the UK, the first having sat only in 1801. Even the building it sits in now has never been an exclusively English Parliament.
    I never said it was English only all that time. But whether pre-1707 or post it has been 'ours' all along. Ours as part of England, or ours as part of the UK.
    If it is 'ours' as part of the UK then surely that makes it as much 'ours' to the Scots, Welsh and Irish as it is to the English. Trying to claim some sort of English superior claim over it is rather misguided.
    Of course it is! I never claimed some sort of 'English superior claim' - quite the opposite since I was bemoaning that Scots could and do override English MPs on English laws. If they couldn't I'd have no reason to want English independence.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    JackW said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Yes I'm a Conservative, I am not a Unionist. I've never made a secret of that and I wanted Yes to win in 2014 but the Scots were too frit to take the opportunity of independence, unlike the Welsh and English in 2016 which is why the SNP are so upset now.

    I understand that I am not the same as other Conservatives who are Unionists but then I am a great believer in individualism and not collectivism which is what draws me to the Conservative way of thinking in the first place. So I see no reason why I have to bend to Collective thinking.

    Being a Unionist is central to the belief system of the Conservatives, so much so they say what they are on the tin.

    You may call yourself a turnip if you wish but I would deny your viability as a root vegetable. Similarly you may wish to assume the rigour of a Conservative but you fail in the most fundamentals of the British Conservative - the belief in the Union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
    I'm an atheist and a republican too for what its worth.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    GIN1138 said:

    brokenwheel said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone know if the Conservatives have even campaigned in Newport West? Has anyone from the Cabinet visited?

    I mean bearing mind Labour only won this with a 5,000 majority in 2017 so in the right circumstances it should be competitive for Con.

    Con candidate sounds super hopeful...

    https://www.twitter.com/matthewevansnpt/status/1113909799522009089

    And yes, Amber Rudd, ha.
    LOL! That sounds like he's going to come about 6th or something! :D
    It’s sad because he is actually a Leaver.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,253
    edited April 2019
    Philip_Thompson said:

    DougSeal said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    kle4 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    malcolmg said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    tottenhamWC said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I'd rather dissolve the Union.

    That seems to be the policy of ERG and why they will lose
    Feels like a dangerous end game of English nationalism....
    Why is Scottish nationalism something to be proud of but English nationalism is dangerous?

    A Scot feels like he wants Scottish MSPs to set Scottish laws that's viewed as honorable.
    If I say as an Englishman I want English MPs to set English laws then that's dangerous?
    Are yyou so stupid that you don't know that you already set your own laws
    Until we get rid of Scottish, Welsh and NI MPs setting English laws no we bloody well don't. Are you so stupid that you don't know that happens?
    I though there were now procedures in place with England only committee stages and the like.
    They're weak and only mean that England-only MPs can veto an England-only law but non-English MPs can still veto an England-only law like the Sunday Trading change.
    But so called “English” laws still effect them. As you well know, for example, the Barnett formula automatically adjusts the amounts of public expenditure allocated to Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales to reflect changes in spending levels allocated to public services in England. So if English MPs voted a decrease in spending there would be a proportionate decrease in the allocation of funds to the devolved nations, so it is fair their MPs can vote on such matters even if the spending concerned effects only England. Given Westminster can legally override the devolved legislatures, and has a vast English majority, there has to be a quid pro quo.
    If we dissolve the union and eliminate the Barnett formula the English can decide what they want to spend their money on, the Scots can decide what they want to spend their money on and everyone can act like actual grown ups. Win, win.
    This I agree with wholeheartedly. There is clearly a Scottish demos which is far stronger for them than the UK demos and I think Scotland would thrive as an independent nation.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    brokenwheel said:

    GIN1138 said:

    brokenwheel said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone know if the Conservatives have even campaigned in Newport West? Has anyone from the Cabinet visited?

    I mean bearing mind Labour only won this with a 5,000 majority in 2017 so in the right circumstances it should be competitive for Con.

    Con candidate sounds super hopeful...

    https://www.twitter.com/matthewevansnpt/status/1113909799522009089

    And yes, Amber Rudd, ha.
    LOL! That sounds like he's going to come about 6th or something! :D
    It’s sad because he is actually a Leaver.
    So is Newport in general. 56% to 44% but I suspect the elected MP won't be.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,250
    The devo lock is an absolute abortion.
    Basically, permanently trapped inside another power’s customs structure, with a veto to nationalists who by definition wish to dissolve the Union.

    I think if we go for this, it really is curtains for the U.K.
This discussion has been closed.