politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This is not an early April Fools’ Day story. Iain Duncan Smith
Comments
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I expect most of the country would gladly take Major's Europe policy nowRoyalBlue said:
He also led his party to its worst defeat for nearly 100 years and was the architect of the failed policy ‘at the heart of Europe without the Euro’.kle4 said:
Well yes, he's a remain supporter.HYUFD said:Major also urges the Deal to be passed with a confirmatory referendum
He’s a great reverse indicator.0 -
The American system with pretty much only two parties and where close to 50/50 seems entrenched is perhaps more favourable than the British one where there is a larger block of swing voters and various third parties that usually pull the contest toward the centre ground.HYUFD said:
Yes, Boris is the most charismatic Tory candidate and like Trump a marmite figure, you either love Boris or loathe himWhisperingOracle said:
This is where I think the Shagger's party appeal intersects with a national appeal as mentioned below. Alex is probably correct that Tory members don't see his flaws ; but a number of Tory voters rather than members see his flaws and still support him.HYUFD said:
Tim Bale''s scientific Tory members poll from Sussex Uni last December also had Boris ahead on 20%, Mogg second on 15% and Javid and Davis third on 8%HYUFD said:
Yet the same ConHome polling sample had 60% backing May's Deal last Friday, it is not all hard Brexit diehards. Deltapoll this morning has Boris ahead amongst all voters as next Tory leader, Opinium last night had Boris the only Tory leadership candidate with better positive future PM ratings than Corbyn. The momentum is all with Boris.IanB2 said:
HY continues to present these as "polls" despite the fact that they are not. It's a self-selected sample of a self-selected population.WhisperingOracle said:
Looks like the Shagger is in with a shout.HYUFD said:Boris Johnson top in new Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll on 22% but Dominic Raab surges to 2nd on 18%, Gove is third on 14%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/03/next-tory-leader-its-johnson-first-raab-second-gove-third-in-our-first-survey-since-mays-pledge-to-quit.html
My Tory Association AGM last Friday had a straw poll with Boris and Raab the top two so the ConHome poll today entirely in accordance with what I am seeing from Tory members on the ground
https://esrcpartymembersproject.org0 -
Somebody should start a petition to get the Queen to decide the Brexit outcome.kinabalu said:Morning all,
Whatever side of the argument we favour there is one thing on which I think we can all agree, it is proving hellish difficult to deliver on the wishes of the British people, as expressed in the Referendum of 2016, that the UK becomes an independent coastal state in charge of its own fish.
Parliament is blocking Leave with a deal. Parliament is blocking Leave without a deal. Ergo Parliament is blocking Leave. Remain then? Nein. Parliament will not Revoke and will not sanction another Referendum. Ergo Parliament is blocking Remain.
Leave or Remain, the binary 2016 choice, both are looking like unicorns.
OK, not to worry, because we can trade in this Parliament for a better model. Have a General Election. Mais non! Parliament blocks this too under the FTPA. We must wait until 2022.
Conclusion?
We need a solution which involves neither leaving nor not leaving the European Union and which lasts until 2022.
I suggest an induced coma.
She has more respect and is more trusted by the public than any politician.0 -
and it was such a great hat.RoyalBlue said:
Somebody should start a petition to get the Queen to decide the Brexit outcome.kinabalu said:Morning all,
Whatever side of the argument we favour there is one thing on which I think we can all agree, it is proving hellish difficult to deliver on the wishes of the British people, as expressed in the Referendum of 2016, that the UK becomes an independent coastal state in charge of its own fish.
Parliament is blocking Leave with a deal. Parliament is blocking Leave without a deal. Ergo Parliament is blocking Leave. Remain then? Nein. Parliament will not Revoke and will not sanction another Referendum. Ergo Parliament is blocking Remain.
Leave or Remain, the binary 2016 choice, both are looking like unicorns.
OK, not to worry, because we can trade in this Parliament for a better model. Have a General Election. Mais non! Parliament blocks this too under the FTPA. We must wait until 2022.
Conclusion?
We need a solution which involves neither leaving nor not leaving the European Union and which lasts until 2022.
I suggest an induced coma.
She has more respect and is more trusted by the public than any politician.0 -
Yes she has made clear to the Cabinet the threat No Deal poses to the economy and Union is not one she will countenance unless the Commons votes for No DealBenpointer said:
That is, I think, very true. It also seems to me that her view has genuinely changed since the days of 'No Deal is better than a Bad Deal'.HYUFD said:
May does not want No Deal, if she did we would have left the EU last Friday with No Deal and No extension of Article 50RochdalePioneers said:
The problem is that both May and Corbyn want no deal. Which is why we have to bypass both front benches and take back control. The GNU doesn't have to do much nor last very long- a caretaker government which allows No Deal Brexit to be stopped, gives time for both parties to resolve their splits and then call an election. And if their caretaker programme does a few other useful things like scrap the FTPA and bring in STV then all the better.TheJezziah said:
Also partially in response to Big GNigelb said:
The EU election issue is a distraction, I think. They could be managed much more easily than any alternative deal which required our holding them could be arranged.TheJezziah said:
Just guessing here but on the EU elections point they would presumably only need something passed to hold them if article 50 or something else elections.Nigelb said:
I disclaim any knowledge, but it seems to me that even if a significant majority in the House can agree on a serious alternative to May’s WA, it would need at a minimum to ent, by the end of the week.Big_G_NorthWales said:
All guesswork no knowledge.
My other guess would be along the lines of Edmund, EU doesn't want no deal, euro elections are the only requirement otherwise Ireland has a big problem and the EU have their back. Macron will talk tough but the 27 will come to a position of extension just for Euro elections.
It is the British side that is the bigger potential problems, say if May wanted no deal.
As PM she will have briefings second to noneon the impact of No Deal Brexit and she has clearly decided she cannot put the country through that - even though it has meant back-tracking on one of her earlier grand statements.
Given May's inherent intransigence, that tells me a lot about how dire the impact of a No Deal Brexit would really be.0 -
How many of us here have been on Constituency Panels picking candidates? Or otherwise mixed with MP's.malcolmg said:
I think you underestimate at 400, much higher I think.glw said:
I agree with you, it is hard to believe that MPs don't understand the basics of Brexit, that said we should not exclude the possibility that there really are about 400 or so very thick MPs in Parliament. It sure as hell would explain a lot.kle4 said:Thornberry knows it. I dont like to suggest insincerity but more and more on Brexit I cannot believe on a number of issues that so many people do not understand things.
Therefore it is cover for cynical positioning. Davis, Johnson and go are the same so it's not a partisan point. And May and co did it too when trying to change a WA they knew and had said could not be changed.
Rarely met one who could really be described as thick. Single-minded, unable to see anything outside their party interest perhaps.0 -
I'd say IDS would have a good shout if he made the final two (doubtful, very doubtful) - hes got the blue rinsers vote.
Hes not nailed on to retain his seat however0 -
I was simply working from the Ashcroft findings that his two putative new parties came first and second.Mexicanpete said:
No The Conservative Party is like a cockroach. It will survive armaggedon and then flourish. Minimum low thirties for the Tories after any splits.IanB2 said:
Ok. Making some deductions from the article that would produce something like:CarlottaVance said:
The current parties.IanB2 said:
Hardly decisive, especially with barely half the electorate between them. Where are the other options?CarlottaVance said:‘New Party A’ would emphasise community and society, be happy with current or higher levels of immigration, want more action to tackle climate change, support aid to poorer countries, promote rehabilitation in the criminal justice system, strongly support rights for same-sex couples and favour international co-operation, including the closest possible links with the EU after Brexit. ‘New Party B’ would aim to reduce immigration, take a tougher line on law and order, spend the international aid budget in the UK instead, prefer the UK to act independently with few formal ties to the EU after Brexit, and argue that the threat of climate change had been exaggerated, that traditional values had been wrongly neglected and that the government had become too much of a nanny state. When I asked people how they would vote in an election with these new entrants standing against the current players, the liberal ‘New Party A’ did well, with 24% of the vote, including nearly a third of 2017 Labour voters and nearly half of Lib Dems. But they were pipped at the post by the much more conservative ‘New Party B’, with 27%, including more than four in ten 2017 Tories and nearly half of Leave voters.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/03/mind-the-gap-why-the-brexit-debacle-has-put-both-labour-and-the-tories-under-threat/
New social conservatives: 27%
New social liberal 24%
Labour around 22%
Conservative around 20%
LibDem around 4%
Others 3%
Under our current voting system that would be a very messy election, impossible to predict.0 -
Only 999,000 to go now.0
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No, the Queen should stay out of it, she remains popular as she does not take sides in political argumentRoyalBlue said:
Somebody should start a petition to get the Queen to decide the Brexit outcome.kinabalu said:Morning all,
Whatever side of the argument we favour there is one thing on which I think we can all agree, it is proving hellish difficult to deliver on the wishes of the British people, as expressed in the Referendum of 2016, that the UK becomes an independent coastal state in charge of its own fish.
Parliament is blocking Leave with a deal. Parliament is blocking Leave without a deal. Ergo Parliament is blocking Leave. Remain then? Nein. Parliament will not Revoke and will not sanction another Referendum. Ergo Parliament is blocking Remain.
Leave or Remain, the binary 2016 choice, both are looking like unicorns.
OK, not to worry, because we can trade in this Parliament for a better model. Have a General Election. Mais non! Parliament blocks this too under the FTPA. We must wait until 2022.
Conclusion?
We need a solution which involves neither leaving nor not leaving the European Union and which lasts until 2022.
I suggest an induced coma.
She has more respect and is more trusted by the public than any politician.0 -
Which 2016 petition are you comparing this one with?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Only TEN MILLION more and they reach the Remain tally in 2016!WhisperingOracle said:
Indeed, the long-delayed milestone is finally reached.Ishmael_Z said:6m!!! Oh happy day.
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The "No Deal" term annoys me, as there is no such option. There are already many, many contingency deals ready for the UK crashing out of the EU. It's not May's Deal versus No Deal, it's May's Deal versus dozens, or maybe even hundreds, of bilateral and multilateral deals. The idea that "No Deal" is somehow quick and straightforward is nonsense, it will almost certainly be a slow and complicated path to take. Now some people might still prefer that path to May's Deal, but I wish people would be realistic about what it would entail.Benpointer said:That is, I think, very true. It also seems to me that her view has genuinely changed since the days of 'No Deal is better than a Bad Deal'.
As PM she will have briefings second to noneon the impact of No Deal Brexit and she has clearly decided she cannot put the country through that - even though it has meant back-tracking on one of her earlier grand statements.
Given May's inherent intransigence, that tells me a lot about how dire the impact of a No Deal Brexit would really be.
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Wrong. It’s hit SIX MILLION, dude.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Only TEN MILLION more and they reach the Remain tally in 2016!WhisperingOracle said:
Indeed, the long-delayed milestone is finally reached.Ishmael_Z said:6m!!! Oh happy day.
It’s all over. I expect May to go and see the Queen this afternoon.0 -
Not always, Attlee and Thatcher won from the left and right respectively, not the centre ground.IanB2 said:
The American system with pretty much only two parties and where close to 50/50 seems entrenched is perhaps more favourable than the British one where there is a larger block of swing voters and various third parties that usually pull the contest toward the centre ground.HYUFD said:
Yes, Boris is the most charismatic Tory candidate and like Trump a marmite figure, you either love Boris or loathe himWhisperingOracle said:
This is where I think the Shagger's party appeal intersects with a national appeal as mentioned below. Alex is probably correct that Tory members don't see his flaws ; but a number of Tory voters rather than members see his flaws and still support him.HYUFD said:
Tim Bale''s scientific Tory members poll from Sussex Uni last December also had Boris ahead on 20%, Mogg second on 15% and Javid and Davis third on 8%HYUFD said:
Yet the same ConHome polling sample had 60% backing May's Deal last Friday, it is not all hard Brexit diehards. Deltapoll this morning has Boris ahead amongst all voters as next Tory leader, Opinium last night had Boris the only Tory leadership candidate with better positive future PM ratings than Corbyn. The momentum is all with Boris.IanB2 said:
HY continues to present these as "polls" despite the fact that they are not. It's a self-selected sample of a self-selected population.WhisperingOracle said:
Looks like the Shagger is in with a shout.HYUFD said:Boris Johnson top in new Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll on 22% but Dominic Raab surges to 2nd on 18%, Gove is third on 14%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/03/next-tory-leader-its-johnson-first-raab-second-gove-third-in-our-first-survey-since-mays-pledge-to-quit.html
My Tory Association AGM last Friday had a straw poll with Boris and Raab the top two so the ConHome poll today entirely in accordance with what I am seeing from Tory members on the ground
https://esrcpartymembersproject.org
Plenty of centrists have won in the US too e.g. Bush Snr and Bill Clinton
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And still requires passing the Withdrawal Agreement.HYUFD said:0 -
There are some who are intellectually challenged (having met IDS I'd say he isn't particularly bright), but I agree the majority are intelligent in some way or other.OldKingCole said:
How many of us here have been on Constituency Panels picking candidates? Or otherwise mixed with MP's.malcolmg said:
I think you underestimate at 400, much higher I think.glw said:
I agree with you, it is hard to believe that MPs don't understand the basics of Brexit, that said we should not exclude the possibility that there really are about 400 or so very thick MPs in Parliament. It sure as hell would explain a lot.kle4 said:Thornberry knows it. I dont like to suggest insincerity but more and more on Brexit I cannot believe on a number of issues that so many people do not understand things.
Therefore it is cover for cynical positioning. Davis, Johnson and go are the same so it's not a partisan point. And May and co did it too when trying to change a WA they knew and had said could not be changed.
Rarely met one who could really be described as thick. Single-minded, unable to see anything outside their party interest perhaps.0 -
Looks like the outrageous DExEU tweet from 4 days ago that "Common Market 2.0 would not respect the referendum result" has been deleted.HYUFD said:0 -
Yes. This is partly why both were more influential than Blair.HYUFD said:
Not always, Attlee and Thatcher won from the left and right respectively, not the centre ground.IanB2 said:
The American system with pretty much only two parties and where close to 50/50 seems entrenched is perhaps more favourable than the British one where there is a larger block of swing voters and various third parties that usually pull the contest toward the centre ground.HYUFD said:
Yes, Boris is the most charismatic Tory candidate and like Trump a marmite figure, you either love Boris or loathe himWhisperingOracle said:
This is where I think the Shagger's party appeal intersects with a national appeal as mentioned below. Alex is probably correct that Tory members don't see his flaws ; but a number of Tory voters rather than members see his flaws and still support him.HYUFD said:
Tim Bale''s scientific Tory members poll from Sussex Uni last December also had Boris ahead on 20%, Mogg second on 15% and Javid and Davis third on 8%HYUFD said:
Yet the same ConHome polling sample had 60% backing May's Deal last Friday, it is not all hard Brexit diehards. Deltapoll this morning has Boris ahead amongst all voters as next Tory leader, Opinium last night had Boris the only Tory leadership candidate with better positive future PM ratings than Corbyn. The momentum is all with Boris.IanB2 said:
HY continues to present these as "polls" despite the fact that they are not. It's a self-selected sample of a self-selected population.WhisperingOracle said:
Looks like the Shagger is in with a shout.HYUFD said:Boris Johnson top in new Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll on 22% but Dominic Raab surges to 2nd on 18%, Gove is third on 14%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/03/next-tory-leader-its-johnson-first-raab-second-gove-third-in-our-first-survey-since-mays-pledge-to-quit.html
My Tory Association AGM last Friday had a straw poll with Boris and Raab the top two so the ConHome poll today entirely in accordance with what I am seeing from Tory members on the ground
https://esrcpartymembersproject.org
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The actual Referendum vote, man! Remember that one?Ishmael_Z said:
Which 2016 petition are you comparing this one with?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Only TEN MILLION more and they reach the Remain tally in 2016!WhisperingOracle said:
Indeed, the long-delayed milestone is finally reached.Ishmael_Z said:6m!!! Oh happy day.
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Petition rate picking up now after it hit 6 million . I don’t personally agree with it and would only support a second vote not revocation but interesting to see how far it can get .0
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And as none of the other leave options have even that much support in petition space, we can assume that active support for leave is now derisory compared to remaining.Sunil_Prasannan said:
That's NO DEAL, not LEAVE per seBenpointer said:
Only 16.8 MILLION more and Leave reaches its tally in 2016!...Sunil_Prasannan said:
Only TEN MILLION more and they reach the Remain tally in 2016!WhisperingOracle said:
Indeed, the long-delayed milestone is finally reached.Ishmael_Z said:6m!!! Oh happy day.
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/2299630 -
See, this is why Corbyn is winning - he knows May will ALWAYS blink before him.HYUFD said:
Yes she has made clear to the Cabinet the threat No Deal poses to the economy and Union is not one she will countenance unless the Commons votes for No DealBenpointer said:
That is, I think, very true. It also seems to me that her view has genuinely changed since the days of 'No Deal is better than a Bad Deal'.HYUFD said:
May does not want No Deal, if she did we would have left the EU last Friday with No Deal and No extension of Article 50RochdalePioneers said:
The problem is that both May and Corbyn want no deal. Which is why we have to bypass both front benches and take back control. The GNU doesn't have to do much nor last very long- a caretaker government which allows No Deal Brexit to be stopped, gives time for both parties to resolve their splits and then call an election. And if their caretaker programme does a few other useful things like scrap the FTPA and bring in STV then all the better.TheJezziah said:
Also partially in response to Big GNigelb said:
The EU election issue is a distraction, I think. They could be managed much more easily than any alternative deal which required our holding them could be arranged.TheJezziah said:
Just guessing here but on the EU elections point they would presumably only need something passed to hold them if article 50 or something else elections.Nigelb said:
I disclaim any knowledge, but it seems to me that even if a significant majority in the House can agree on a serious alternative to May’s WA, it would need at a minimum to ent, by the end of the week.Big_G_NorthWales said:
All guesswork no knowledge.
My other guess would be along the lines of Edmund, EU doesn't want no deal, euro elections are the only requirement otherwise Ireland has a big problem and the EU have their back. Macron will talk tough but the 27 will come to a position of extension just for Euro elections.
It is the British side that is the bigger potential problems, say if May wanted no deal.
As PM she will have briefings second to noneon the impact of No Deal Brexit and she has clearly decided she cannot put the country through that - even though it has meant back-tracking on one of her earlier grand statements.
Given May's inherent intransigence, that tells me a lot about how dire the impact of a No Deal Brexit would really be.0 -
Quite, If the queen gets involved it would be the beginning of the end of monarchy, politicians would act to prevent such use of 17th century powers again. There's a reason no monarch since flabby Anne has refused to sign a bill into law or used their prerogative outside the advice of the PM or in ceremonial use.HYUFD said:
No, the Queen should stay out of it, she remains popular as she does not take sides in political argumentRoyalBlue said:
Somebody should start a petition to get the Queen to decide the Brexit outcome.kinabalu said:Morning all,
Whatever side of the argument we favour there is one thing on which I think we can all agree, it is proving hellish difficult to deliver on the wishes of the British people, as expressed in the Referendum of 2016, that the UK becomes an independent coastal state in charge of its own fish.
Parliament is blocking Leave with a deal. Parliament is blocking Leave without a deal. Ergo Parliament is blocking Leave. Remain then? Nein. Parliament will not Revoke and will not sanction another Referendum. Ergo Parliament is blocking Remain.
Leave or Remain, the binary 2016 choice, both are looking like unicorns.
OK, not to worry, because we can trade in this Parliament for a better model. Have a General Election. Mais non! Parliament blocks this too under the FTPA. We must wait until 2022.
Conclusion?
We need a solution which involves neither leaving nor not leaving the European Union and which lasts until 2022.
I suggest an induced coma.
She has more respect and is more trusted by the public than any politician.
As a Republican, go for it Liz.0 -
Some people think that 'no deal' is the status quo. Noel Edmonds' game show has a lot to answer for.alex. said:
I think people are making the mistake of thinking that people favouring No deal are mutually exclusive from those favouring Revoke. I suspect there is substantial crossover.HYUFD said:
46% for No Deal is 1% more than the 45% Yes to independence in Scotland got.IanB2 said:
Yes/no questions with no other options would be better presented without the DKs:CarlottaVance said:@Foxy - quote: Revoke now more popular than a #peoplesvote
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112116959599099904?s=19
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112117322087567361?s=19
I think thats what would be called 'a tie'
Revoke - 51% support
Referendum - 51%
No Deal - 46%
Remain and revoke Article 50 might narrowly win an EUref2 over Leave with No Deal but on those numbers there will be a lot of furious Leave voters and Brexiteers
The explanation? All these people want is it to be over (or at least the current impasse), one way or another. They don't believe no deal will be as disastrous as claimed, and they believe that revoke will just be a return to the status quo.
A lot of people who voted to leave are sick of it and just want it over with. 'Leave or stay, I no longer care', one said.
There's now a 3rd. petition, not just the Revoke and Ultra Remain ones, asking for an enquiry into the legality of the leave vote before Brexit takes place
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241848/0 -
Just for old time's sake:Recidivist said:
And as none of the other leave options have even that much support in petition space, we can assume that active support for leave is now derisory compared to remaining.Sunil_Prasannan said:
That's NO DEAL, not LEAVE per seBenpointer said:
Only 16.8 MILLION more and Leave reaches its tally in 2016!...Sunil_Prasannan said:
Only TEN MILLION more and they reach the Remain tally in 2016!WhisperingOracle said:
Indeed, the long-delayed milestone is finally reached.Ishmael_Z said:6m!!! Oh happy day.
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/229963
Remain 52%
Leave 48%
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For fun, I had a go on electoral calculus using the following shares:IanB2 said:
Ok. Making some deductions from the article that would produce something like:CarlottaVance said:
The current parties.IanB2 said:
Hardly decisive, especially with barely half the electorate between them. Where are the other options?CarlottaVance said:‘New Party A’ would emphasise community and society, be happy with current or higher levels of immigration, want more action to tackle climate change, support aid to poorer countries, promote rehabilitation in the criminal justice system, strongly support rights for same-sex couples and favour international co-operation, including the closest possible links with the EU after Brexit. ‘New Party B’ would aim to reduce immigration, take a tougher line on law and order, spend the international aid budget in the UK instead, prefer the UK to act independently with few formal ties to the EU after Brexit, and argue that the threat of climate change had been exaggerated, that traditional values had been wrongly neglected and that the government had become too much of a nanny state. When I asked people how they would vote in an election with these new entrants standing against the current players, the liberal ‘New Party A’ did well, with 24% of the vote, including nearly a third of 2017 Labour voters and nearly half of Lib Dems. But they were pipped at the post by the much more conservative ‘New Party B’, with 27%, including more than four in ten 2017 Tories and nearly half of Leave voters.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/03/mind-the-gap-why-the-brexit-debacle-has-put-both-labour-and-the-tories-under-threat/
New social conservatives: 27%
New social liberal 24%
Labour around 22%
Conservative around 20%
LibDem around 4%
Others 3%
Under our current voting system that would be a very messy election, impossible to predict.
New social conservatives (UKIP): 27%
New social liberal (LD) 24%+4%
Labour around 22%
Conservative around 20%
Result was:
New social conservatives (UKIP): 98
New social liberal (LD) 121
Labour around 22% 241!
Conservative around 20% 115
Lab 85 short of overall majority
Coalition government Lab +LD 241+1210 -
Petition = scooby gang solution to national crisis. Lots of terribly cross people naively believing in the power of crossness.0
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Well spineless , self seeking , no principles , sheep like , cannon fodder. Is that any better.OldKingCole said:
How many of us here have been on Constituency Panels picking candidates? Or otherwise mixed with MP's.malcolmg said:
I think you underestimate at 400, much higher I think.glw said:
I agree with you, it is hard to believe that MPs don't understand the basics of Brexit, that said we should not exclude the possibility that there really are about 400 or so very thick MPs in Parliament. It sure as hell would explain a lot.kle4 said:Thornberry knows it. I dont like to suggest insincerity but more and more on Brexit I cannot believe on a number of issues that so many people do not understand things.
Therefore it is cover for cynical positioning. Davis, Johnson and go are the same so it's not a partisan point. And May and co did it too when trying to change a WA they knew and had said could not be changed.
Rarely met one who could really be described as thick. Single-minded, unable to see anything outside their party interest perhaps.0 -
The Scooby gang always defeated their opponents.dyedwoolie said:Petition = scooby gang solution to national crisis. Lots of terribly cross people naively believing in the power of crossness.
Just saying.0 -
March = next tier scooby gang solution to national crisis. Lots of terribly cross people naively believing in the power of getting out of bed to show crossness.dyedwoolie said:Petition = scooby gang solution to national crisis. Lots of terribly cross people naively believing in the power of crossness.
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I think a Labour-Lib Dem coalition is very likely at some point between now and the next couple of years, however unlikely that may still seem at the moment.Barnesian said:
For fun, I had a go on electoral calculus using the following shares:IanB2 said:
Ok. Making some deductions from the article that would produce something like:CarlottaVance said:
The current parties.IanB2 said:
Hardly decisive, especially with barely half the electorate between them. Where are the other options?CarlottaVance said:‘New Party A’ would emphasise community and society, be happy with current or higher levels of immigration, want more action to tackle climate change, support aid to poorer countries, promote rehabilitation in the criminal justice system, strongly support rights for same-sex couples and favour international co-operation, including the closest possible links with the EU after Brexit. ‘New Party B’ would aim to reduce immigration, take a tougher line on law and order, spend the international aid budget in the UK instead, prefer the UK to act independently with few formal ties to the EU after Brexit, and argue that the threat of climate change had been exaggerated, that traditional values had been wrongly neglected and that the government had become too much of a nanny state. When I asked people how they would vote in an election with these new entrants standing against the current players, the liberal ‘New Party A’ did well, with 24% of the vote, including nearly a third of 2017 Labour voters and nearly half of Lib Dems. But they were pipped at the post by the much more conservative ‘New Party B’, with 27%, including more than four in ten 2017 Tories and nearly half of Leave voters.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/03/mind-the-gap-why-the-brexit-debacle-has-put-both-labour-and-the-tories-under-threat/
New social conservatives: 27%
New social liberal 24%
Labour around 22%
Conservative around 20%
LibDem around 4%
Others 3%
Under our current voting system that would be a very messy election, impossible to predict.
New social conservatives (UKIP): 27%
New social liberal (LD) 24%+4%
Labour around 22%
Conservative around 20%
Result was:
New social conservatives (UKIP): 98
New social liberal (LD) 121
Labour around 22% 241!
Conservative around 20% 115
Lab 85 short of overall majority
Coalition government Lab +LD 241+1210 -
If I had posted this on 29 March, I would be pretending my broadband had gone down for a day or two:Casino_Royale said:
Wrong. It’s hit SIX MILLION, dude.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Only TEN MILLION more and they reach the Remain tally in 2016!WhisperingOracle said:
Indeed, the long-delayed milestone is finally reached.Ishmael_Z said:6m!!! Oh happy day.
It’s all over. I expect May to go and see the Queen this afternoon.
"But, I’m enjoying revelling in their disappointment that it keeps creeping up to 6 million but never quite gets there."
I salute your indefatigability.0 -
I don't think Brenda would stick her gold plated oar in but if she did it would hasten the already inevitable end of the monarchy.dyedwoolie said:
Quite, If the queen gets involved it would be the beginning of the end of monarchy, politicians would act to prevent such use of 17th century powers again. There's a reason no monarch since flabby Anne has refused to sign a bill into law or used their prerogative outside the advice of the PM or in ceremonial use.HYUFD said:
No, the Queen should stay out of it, she remains popular as she does not take sides in political argumentRoyalBlue said:
Somebody should start a petition to get the Queen to decide the Brexit outcome.kinabalu said:Morning all,
Whatever side of the argument we favour there is one thing on which I think we can all agree, it is proving hellish difficult to deliver on the wishes of the British people, as expressed in the Referendum of 2016, that the UK becomes an independent coastal state in charge of its own fish.
Parliament is blocking Leave with a deal. Parliament is blocking Leave without a deal. Ergo Parliament is blocking Leave. Remain then? Nein. Parliament will not Revoke and will not sanction another Referendum. Ergo Parliament is blocking Remain.
Leave or Remain, the binary 2016 choice, both are looking like unicorns.
OK, not to worry, because we can trade in this Parliament for a better model. Have a General Election. Mais non! Parliament blocks this too under the FTPA. We must wait until 2022.
Conclusion?
We need a solution which involves neither leaving nor not leaving the European Union and which lasts until 2022.
I suggest an induced coma.
She has more respect and is more trusted by the public than any politician.
As a Republican, go for it Liz.0 -
Yeah but Xander and Willow and just urgh. Oh and Dawn, the irritating little turdTheScreamingEagles said:
The Scooby gang always defeated their opponents.dyedwoolie said:Petition = scooby gang solution to national crisis. Lots of terribly cross people naively believing in the power of crossness.
Just saying.0 -
Is there anyone out there still thinks we are leaving. Tories plan is working well, they will bore the country into submission by having never ending delays till it disappears.nico67 said:Petition rate picking up now after it hit 6 million . I don’t personally agree with it and would only support a second vote not revocation but interesting to see how far it can get .
0 -
Ultimate scooby is marching to number 10 to present a petition accompanied by a minor celebrityMarqueeMark said:
March = next tier scooby gang solution to national crisis. Lots of terribly cross people naively believing in the power of getting out of bed to show crossness.dyedwoolie said:Petition = scooby gang solution to national crisis. Lots of terribly cross people naively believing in the power of crossness.
0 -
12 mm is definitely longer than 4 inches, because 12 is a bigger number than 4.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The actual Referendum vote, man! Remember that one?Ishmael_Z said:
Which 2016 petition are you comparing this one with?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Only TEN MILLION more and they reach the Remain tally in 2016!WhisperingOracle said:
Indeed, the long-delayed milestone is finally reached.Ishmael_Z said:6m!!! Oh happy day.
0 -
Mr. Woolie, Dawn was a bit irksome.
But Spike was excellent.
"I couldn't help you. I was paralysed by not caring."0 -
We just need a new Bristish people.kinabalu said:Morning all,
Whatever side of the argument we favour there is one thing on which I think we can all agree, it is proving hellish difficult to deliver on the wishes of the British people, as expressed in the Referendum of 2016, that the UK becomes an independent coastal state in charge of its own fish.
Parliament is blocking Leave with a deal. Parliament is blocking Leave without a deal. Ergo Parliament is blocking Leave. Remain then? Nein. Parliament will not Revoke and will not sanction another Referendum. Ergo Parliament is blocking Remain.
Leave or Remain, the binary 2016 choice, both are looking like unicorns.
OK, not to worry, because we can trade in this Parliament for a better model. Have a General Election. Mais non! Parliament blocks this too under the FTPA. We must wait until 2022.
Conclusion?
We need a solution which involves neither leaving nor not leaving the European Union and which lasts until 2022.
I suggest an induced coma.
Maybe we could have Indonesians vote for us on whether we should Remain or Leave?0 -
They're the ones suffering from cognitive fatigue. It's a big club. They don't understand all the acronyms or parliamentary procedures and don't want to. They just want a simple solution. Piss or get off the pot (if you'll excuse my French this early on Mother's Day).alex. said:
I think people are making the mistake of thinking that people favouring No deal are mutually exclusive from those favouring Revoke. I suspect there is substantial crossover.HYUFD said:
46% for No Deal is 1% more than the 45% Yes to independence in Scotland got.IanB2 said:
Yes/no questions with no other options would be better presented without the DKs:CarlottaVance said:@Foxy - quote: Revoke now more popular than a #peoplesvote
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112116959599099904?s=19
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112117322087567361?s=19
I think thats what would be called 'a tie'
Revoke - 51% support
Referendum - 51%
No Deal - 46%
Remain and revoke Article 50 might narrowly win an EUref2 over Leave with No Deal but on those numbers there will be a lot of furious Leave voters and Brexiteers
The explanation? All these people want is it to be over (or at least the current impasse), one way or another. They don't believe no deal will be as disastrous as claimed, and they believe that revoke will just be a return to the status quo.0 -
If labour are like 3 short, sure. If not they might as well ask the GreensWhisperingOracle said:
I think a Labour-Lib Dem coalition is very likely at some point between now and the next couple of years, however unlikely that may still seem at the moment.Barnesian said:
For fun, I had a go on electoral calculus using the following shares:IanB2 said:
Ok. Making some deductions from the article that would produce something like:CarlottaVance said:
The current parties.IanB2 said:
Hardly decisive, especially with barely half the electorate between them. Where are the other options?CarlottaVance said:‘New Party A’ would emphasise community and society, be happy with current or higher levels of immigration, want more action to tackle climate change, support aid to poorer countries, promote rehabilitation in the criminal justice system, strongly support rights for same-sex couples and favour international co-operation, including the closest possible links with the EU after Brexit. ‘New Party B’ would aim to reduce immigration, take a tougher line on law and order, spend the international aid budget in the UK instead, prefer the UK to act independently with few formal ties to the EU after Brexit, and argue that the threat of climate change had been exaggerated, that traditional values had been wrongly neglected and that the government had become too much of a nanny state. When I asked people how they would vote in an election with these new entrants standing against the current players, the liberal ‘New Party A’ did well, with 24% of the vote, including nearly a third of 2017 Labour voters and nearly half of Lib Dems. But they were pipped at the post by the much more conservative ‘New Party B’, with 27%, including more than four in ten 2017 Tories and nearly half of Leave voters.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/03/mind-the-gap-why-the-brexit-debacle-has-put-both-labour-and-the-tories-under-threat/
New social conservatives: 27%
New social liberal 24%
Labour around 22%
Conservative around 20%
LibDem around 4%
Others 3%
Under our current voting system that would be a very messy election, impossible to predict.
New social conservatives (UKIP): 27%
New social liberal (LD) 24%+4%
Labour around 22%
Conservative around 20%
Result was:
New social conservatives (UKIP): 98
New social liberal (LD) 121
Labour around 22% 241!
Conservative around 20% 115
Lab 85 short of overall majority
Coalition government Lab +LD 241+1210 -
...who then has to take it home, because number 10 won't accept itdyedwoolie said:
Ultimate scooby is marching to number 10 to present a petition accompanied by a minor celebrityMarqueeMark said:
March = next tier scooby gang solution to national crisis. Lots of terribly cross people naively believing in the power of getting out of bed to show crossness.dyedwoolie said:Petition = scooby gang solution to national crisis. Lots of terribly cross people naively believing in the power of crossness.
0 -
We all love the old hits. But it is looking likely we'll have another referendum result to quote soon.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Just for old time's sake:Recidivist said:
And as none of the other leave options have even that much support in petition space, we can assume that active support for leave is now derisory compared to remaining.Sunil_Prasannan said:
That's NO DEAL, not LEAVE per seBenpointer said:
Only 16.8 MILLION more and Leave reaches its tally in 2016!...Sunil_Prasannan said:
Only TEN MILLION more and they reach the Remain tally in 2016!WhisperingOracle said:
Indeed, the long-delayed milestone is finally reached.Ishmael_Z said:6m!!! Oh happy day.
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/229963
Remain 52%
Leave 48%0 -
Spike was awesome as an unwilling accomplice, he was dreadful after he fully scoobied and fell in love with buffy. Faith..... now we are talkingMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Woolie, Dawn was a bit irksome.
But Spike was excellent.
"I couldn't help you. I was paralysed by not caring."0 -
Larry goes to sleep on itMarqueeMark said:
...who then has to take it home, because number 10 won't accept itdyedwoolie said:
Ultimate scooby is marching to number 10 to present a petition accompanied by a minor celebrityMarqueeMark said:
March = next tier scooby gang solution to national crisis. Lots of terribly cross people naively believing in the power of getting out of bed to show crossness.dyedwoolie said:Petition = scooby gang solution to national crisis. Lots of terribly cross people naively believing in the power of crossness.
0 -
The monarch's end is far from inevitable, 68% of voters back the monarchy including an astonishing 61% on 18 to 24s.Dura_Ace said:
I don't think Brenda would stick her gold plated oar in but if she did it would hasten the already inevitable end of the monarchy.dyedwoolie said:
Quite, If the queen gets involved it would be the beginning of the end of monarchy, politicians would act to prevent such use of 17th century powers again. There's a reason no monarch since flabby Anne has refused to sign a bill into law or used their prerogative outside the advice of the PM or in ceremonial use.HYUFD said:
No, the Queen should stay out of it, she remains popular as she does not take sides in political argumentRoyalBlue said:
Somebody should start a petition to get the Queen to decide the Brexit outcome.kinabalu said:Morning all,
Whatever side of the argument we favour there is one thing on which I think we can all agree, it is proving hellish difficult to deliver on the wishes of the British people, as expressed in the Referendum of 2016, that the UK becomes an independent coastal state in charge of its own fish.
Parliament is blocking Leave with a deal. Parliament is blocking Leave without a deal. Ergo Parliament is blocking Leave. Remain then? Nein. Parliament will not Revoke and will not sanction another Referendum. Ergo Parliament is blocking Remain.
Leave or Remain, the binary 2016 choice, both are looking like unicorns.
OK, not to worry, because we can trade in this Parliament for a better model. Have a General Election. Mais non! Parliament blocks this too under the FTPA. We must wait until 2022.
Conclusion?
We need a solution which involves neither leaving nor not leaving the European Union and which lasts until 2022.
I suggest an induced coma.
She has more respect and is more trusted by the public than any politician.
As a Republican, go for it Liz.
The monarchy is far more popular than either the Tory of Labour parties in the UK and the Queen far more popular than either May or Corbyn
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2015/09/08/monarchy-here-stay0 -
Sort of true.HYUFD said:Yes, Boris is the most charismatic Tory candidate and like Trump a marmite figure, you either love Boris or loathe him
I think there is a sizeable 3rd category though - people who are quite apolitical and shallow, who prefer these sorts of 'characters' to the standard politician because of the entertainment value.0 -
Ho ho, very satirical.MarqueeMark said:
We just need a new Bristish people.kinabalu said:Morning all,
Whatever side of the argument we favour there is one thing on which I think we can all agree, it is proving hellish difficult to deliver on the wishes of the British people, as expressed in the Referendum of 2016, that the UK becomes an independent coastal state in charge of its own fish.
Parliament is blocking Leave with a deal. Parliament is blocking Leave without a deal. Ergo Parliament is blocking Leave. Remain then? Nein. Parliament will not Revoke and will not sanction another Referendum. Ergo Parliament is blocking Remain.
Leave or Remain, the binary 2016 choice, both are looking like unicorns.
OK, not to worry, because we can trade in this Parliament for a better model. Have a General Election. Mais non! Parliament blocks this too under the FTPA. We must wait until 2022.
Conclusion?
We need a solution which involves neither leaving nor not leaving the European Union and which lasts until 2022.
I suggest an induced coma.
Maybe we could have Indonesians vote for us on whether we should Remain or Leave?
Maybe we could have ourselves vote for us on whether we should Remain or Leave?0 -
Larry's litter tray!dyedwoolie said:
Larry goes to sleep on itMarqueeMark said:
...who then has to take it home, because number 10 won't accept itdyedwoolie said:
Ultimate scooby is marching to number 10 to present a petition accompanied by a minor celebrityMarqueeMark said:
March = next tier scooby gang solution to national crisis. Lots of terribly cross people naively believing in the power of getting out of bed to show crossness.dyedwoolie said:Petition = scooby gang solution to national crisis. Lots of terribly cross people naively believing in the power of crossness.
0 -
In the 2014 European elections UKIP received just under 4.4 million votes and at the 2015 UK GE just under 3.9 million votes.Casino_Royale said:
If politicians dismiss six million petition signatures completely then it will find a way to bite them on the arse later on.0 -
An actual comedian is going to become president of the Ukraine. I reckon he'll do a great job 0
-
Indeed, Michael Fabricant was once told by an apolitical teenager in his constituency he was the most entertaining thing about Lichfieldkinabalu said:
Sort of true.HYUFD said:Yes, Boris is the most charismatic Tory candidate and like Trump a marmite figure, you either love Boris or loathe him
I think there is a sizeable 3rd category though - people who are quite apolitical and shallow, who prefer these sorts of 'characters' to the standard politician because of the entertainment value.0 -
Yougov should ask people if they've signed the petition, it'd quickly give the crossbreaks according to party support.OblitusSumMe said:
In the 2014 European elections UKIP received just under 4.4 million votes and at the 2015 UK GE just under 3.9 million votes.Casino_Royale said:
If politicians dismiss six million petition signatures completely then it will find a way to bite them on the arse later on.0 -
We've already got one as the Planitarchis, as the Greeks call him, the world's most powerful man, so what's another comedian between friends.Pulpstar said:An actual comedian is going to become president of the Ukraine. I reckon he'll do a great job
0 -
Listening to Pienaars Politics I couldn't help but reflect on the untimely death of Paddy Ashdown. He would at least have formulated a policy and had the ability to make it sound profound. So many nonentities flapping around at the moment.*
( Heidi Allen is impressive)0 -
Actually the most Scooby thing I ever heard was my philosophy lecturer coming in thd day Thstcher resigned and announcing 'we got her!'MarqueeMark said:
Larry's litter tray!dyedwoolie said:
Larry goes to sleep on itMarqueeMark said:
...who then has to take it home, because number 10 won't accept itdyedwoolie said:
Ultimate scooby is marching to number 10 to present a petition accompanied by a minor celebrityMarqueeMark said:
March = next tier scooby gang solution to national crisis. Lots of terribly cross people naively believing in the power of getting out of bed to show crossness.dyedwoolie said:Petition = scooby gang solution to national crisis. Lots of terribly cross people naively believing in the power of crossness.
Great work comrade, great work0 -
You just have to love the Tories nationalism, unionism in all its glory......
https://www.thenational.scot/news/17538550.chaos-at-westminster-snp-mp-told-to-go-back-to-her-own-country/?ref=mr&lp=1
https://www.thenational.scot/news/scottish-independence/17526389.watch-tory-mps-shout-at-snp-to-go-home-to-scotland-during-brexit-debate/?ref=mc&lp=30 -
OK, malc, what you do in present circumstances?malcolmg said:
Well spineless , self seeking , no principles , sheep like , cannon fodder. Is that any better.OldKingCole said:
How many of us here have been on Constituency Panels picking candidates? Or otherwise mixed with MP's.malcolmg said:
I think you underestimate at 400, much higher I think.glw said:
I agree with you, it is hard to believe that MPs don't understand the basics of Brexit, that said we should not exclude the possibility that there really are about 400 or so very thick MPs in Parliament. It sure as hell would explain a lot.kle4 said:Thornberry knows it. I dont like to suggest insincerity but more and more on Brexit I cannot believe on a number of issues that so many people do not understand things.
Therefore it is cover for cynical positioning. Davis, Johnson and go are the same so it's not a partisan point. And May and co did it too when trying to change a WA they knew and had said could not be changed.
Rarely met one who could really be described as thick. Single-minded, unable to see anything outside their party interest perhaps.
I know, of course, that like me, you wouldn't have started from here!0 -
Except Corbyn will then be lumbered with having to deal with Brexit himself and the problem most of his voters want EUref2 but most Labour seats voted LeavePulpstar said:
See, this is why Corbyn is winning - he knows May will ALWAYS blink before him.HYUFD said:
Yes she has made clear to the Cabinet the threat No Deal poses to the economy and Union is not one she will countenance unless the Commons votes for No DealBenpointer said:
That is, I think, very true. It also seems to me that her view has genuinely changed since the days of 'No Deal is better than a Bad Deal'.HYUFD said:
May does not want No Deal, if she did we would have left the EU last Friday with No Deal and No extension of Article 50RochdalePioneers said:
The problem is that both May and Corbyn want no deal. Which is why we have to bypass both front benches and take back control. The GNU doesn't have to do much nor tter.TheJezziah said:
Also partially in response to Big GNigelb said:
The EU election issue is a distraction, I think. They could be managed much more easily than any alternative deal which required our holding them could be arranged.TheJezziah said:
Just guessing here but on the EU elections point they would presumably only need something passed to hold them if article 50 or something else elections.Nigelb said:
I disclaim any knowledge, but it seems to me that even if a significant majority in the House can agree on a serious alternative to May’s WA, it would need at a minimum to ent, by the end of the week.Big_G_NorthWales said:
All guesswork no knowledge.
My other guess would be along the lines of Edmund, EU doesn't want no deal, euro elections are the only requirement otherwise Ireland has a big problem and the EU have their back. Macron will talk tough but the 27 will come to a position of extension just for Euro elections.
It is the British side that is the bigger potential problems, say if May wanted no deal.
As PM she will have briefings second to noneon the impact of No Deal Brexit and she has clearly decided she cannot put the country through that - even though it has meant back-tracking on one of her earlier grand statements.
Given May's inherent intransigence, that tells me a lot about how dire the impact of a No Deal Brexit would really be.0 -
She will tell MPs to sort it out themselves and head off to Balmoraldyedwoolie said:
Quite, If the queen gets involved it would be the beginning of the end of monarchy, politicians would act to prevent such use of 17th century powers again. There's a reason no monarch since flabby Anne has refused to sign a bill into law or used their prerogative outside the advice of the PM or in ceremonial use.HYUFD said:
No, the Queen should stay out of it, she remains popular as she does not take sides in political argumentRoyalBlue said:
Somebody should start a petition to get the Queen to decide the Brexit outcome.kinabalu said:Morning all,
Whatever side of the argument we favour there is one thing on which I think we can all agree, it is proving hellish difficult to deliver on the wishes of the British people, as expressed in the Referendum of 2016, that the UK becomes an independent coastal state in charge of its own fish.
Parliament is blocking Leave with a deal. Parliament is blocking Leave without a deal. Ergo Parliament is blocking Leave. Remain then? Nein. Parliament will not Revoke and will not sanction another Referendum. Ergo Parliament is blocking Remain.
Leave or Remain, the binary 2016 choice, both are looking like unicorns.
OK, not to worry, because we can trade in this Parliament for a better model. Have a General Election. Mais non! Parliament blocks this too under the FTPA. We must wait until 2022.
Conclusion?
We need a solution which involves neither leaving nor not leaving the European Union and which lasts until 2022.
I suggest an induced coma.
She has more respect and is more trusted by the public than any politician.
As a Republican, go for it Liz.0 -
Polls also show that Joanna Lumley is more popular than the Queen.HYUFD said:The monarch's end is far from inevitable, 68% of voters back the monarchy including an astonishing 61% on 18 to 24s.
The monarchy is far more popular than either the Tory of Labour parties in the UK and the Queen far more popular than either May or Corbyn.
But does this mean that Lumley should be the Queen?
I would say not.0 -
Fine, as long as they don't hold a fecking referendum about it. I cannot live through Brendexit or Chexit.Dura_Ace said:
I don't think Brenda would stick her gold plated oar in but if she did it would hasten the already inevitable end of the monarchy.dyedwoolie said:
Quite, If the queen gets involved it would be the beginning of the end of monarchy, politicians would act to prevent such use of 17th century powers again. There's a reason no monarch since flabby Anne has refused to sign a bill into law or used their prerogative outside the advice of the PM or in ceremonial use.HYUFD said:
No, the Queen should stay out of it, she remains popular as she does not take sides in political argumentRoyalBlue said:
Somebody should start a petition to get the Queen to decide the Brexit outcome.kinabalu said:Morning all,
Whatever side of the argument we favour there is one thing on which I think we can all agree, it is proving hellish difficult to deliver on the wishes of the British people, as expressed in the Referendum of 2016, that the UK becomes an independent coastal state in charge of its own fish.
Parliament is blocking Leave with a deal. Parliament is blocking Leave without a deal. Ergo Parliament is blocking Leave. Remain then? Nein. Parliament will not Revoke and will not sanction another Referendum. Ergo Parliament is blocking Remain.
Leave or Remain, the binary 2016 choice, both are looking like unicorns.
OK, not to worry, because we can trade in this Parliament for a better model. Have a General Election. Mais non! Parliament blocks this too under the FTPA. We must wait until 2022.
Conclusion?
We need a solution which involves neither leaving nor not leaving the European Union and which lasts until 2022.
I suggest an induced coma.
She has more respect and is more trusted by the public than any politician.
As a Republican, go for it Liz.0 -
He's not there yet.Pulpstar said:An actual comedian is going to become president of the Ukraine. I reckon he'll do a great job
But SportingBet did give me a £5 free bet, so I do stand to win £4. Every little helps 0 -
<<I think a Labour-Lib Dem coalition is very likely at some point between now and the next couple of years, however unlikely that may still seem at the moment.>>
<<If labour are like 3 short, sure. If not they might as well ask the Greens>>
I think there's also a broader issue of reviving LD support in the southwest, and a ceiling on Corbyn seats. Unlikely as it may seem now, you may at some time see a kind of moderated Corbynism in alliance with both the Lib Dems and SNP.0 -
-
The stats look pretty real. Not saying 100% - definitely not - but clearly even 50% real would be pretty impressive.Andrew said:
Six million emails.nico67 said:Petition rate picking up now after it hit 6 million
Personally I've got half a dozen emails I use regularly, and can create hundreds more at the drop of a hat.
(Though I think at this point they probably are more likely to be fake since those minded have probably already signed)0 -
Would you also be able to assign those email addresses to valid postcodes in roughly the proportions that the 2016 vote broke down, and lodge them on the site at a rate consistent with what you'd expect people to be doing spontaneously? And how many other people doing the same would be needed to make much difference to the result?Andrew said:
Six million emails.nico67 said:Petition rate picking up now after it hit 6 million
Personally I've got half a dozen emails I use regularly, and can create hundreds more at the drop of a hat.0 -
Corbyns hopes of forcing a GE dead as a Dodo. Sometimes for all the excitement over ideas, personalities, different options in politics it all just comes down to basic arithmetic, namely the various independents not in Labour also the DUP. A moderate Labour leader and Labour Party alternative would still struggle with the same arithmetic, but fear of enabling a Corbyn PM kills winning vonc and second GE stone dead.
Anyway, Merkle watches whilst Macron asks, how does a GE actually solve your brexit problems?
how do you convincingly answer?
You can’t
enough death cap wearing as I pass sentence on chance for GE, here’s the answer to May’s brexit problem. She can’t say her compromise deals dead as a glue stick, she has to keep whipping it. Her deal is a compromise that prevents chaos. Once she admits defeat the party chaos begins.
I can get it to pass the commons. A meaningful vote on 11th or 12th after the judgment of the summit where the forced option is pass the WA or it’s definitely a conscious no deal decoupling, that will ensure enough labour votes to pass it. It’s not even a gamble, it would certainly pass that forced choice.
Is it mostly remainery types coming out to talk brexit today? What are the others up to...0 -
Supposedly she has weekly chats with the PM during which she has the constitutional right to encourage and warn.RoyalBlue said:
Somebody should start a petition to get the Queen to decide the Brexit outcome.kinabalu said:Morning all,
Whatever side of the argument we favour there is one thing on which I think we can all agree, it is proving hellish difficult to deliver on the wishes of the British people, as expressed in the Referendum of 2016, that the UK becomes an independent coastal state in charge of its own fish.
Parliament is blocking Leave with a deal. Parliament is blocking Leave without a deal. Ergo Parliament is blocking Leave. Remain then? Nein. Parliament will not Revoke and will not sanction another Referendum. Ergo Parliament is blocking Remain.
Leave or Remain, the binary 2016 choice, both are looking like unicorns.
OK, not to worry, because we can trade in this Parliament for a better model. Have a General Election. Mais non! Parliament blocks this too under the FTPA. We must wait until 2022.
Conclusion?
We need a solution which involves neither leaving nor not leaving the European Union and which lasts until 2022.
I suggest an induced coma.
She has more respect and is more trusted by the public than any politician.
What has she done with these chats over the last two years? Has she simply been exchanging recommendations for country walks with the PM? I know May gives the appearance of being incredibly stubborn, but I rather think that if HMQ had a personal plan to steer the country through this crisis she ought to have been able to persuade the PM of it.
HMQ's failure is written over Brexit as much as the Commons and the PM.0 -
Do you mean that LD support in the SW is reviving?WhisperingOracle said:<<I think a Labour-Lib Dem coalition is very likely at some point between now and the next couple of years, however unlikely that may still seem at the moment.>>
<<If labour are like 3 short, sure. If not they might as well ask the Greens>>
I think there's also a broader issue of reviving LD support in the southwest, and a ceiling on Corbyn seats. Unlikely as it may seem now, you may at some time see a kind of moderated Corbynism in alliance with both the Lib Dems and SNP.0 -
Iain, love ya loads, but no thank you.0
-
malcolmg said:
Morning GIN, the frothers are on overdrive this weather. Nutters are all coming out of the woodwork.GIN1138 said:
Morning Malc.malcolmg said:
Not at all you halfwitted cretinous blowhard, get your head out of your own butt.Gardenwalker said:
Nobody is seriously claiming Brexit has aided our economy, and there’s decent enough evidence of resultant economic slowdown, yet for some reason PB’s finest wish to attack this graph?DecrepitJohnL said:
You have misunderstood the CER graph. The comparison is with the actual performance of a basket of other countries used to model our own economy.CD13 said:Mr L,
It shows what it thinks would have happened had we taken a different course. Balls and uncles come to mind.
PS My stories may be sh*te but they are my own work.
It must truly be embarrassing to have voted for Brexit.
0 -
Yes.OldKingCole said:
Do you mean that LD support in the SW is reviving?WhisperingOracle said:<<I think a Labour-Lib Dem coalition is very likely at some point between now and the next couple of years, however unlikely that may still seem at the moment.>>
<<If labour are like 3 short, sure. If not they might as well ask the Greens>>
I think there's also a broader issue of reviving LD support in the southwest, and a ceiling on Corbyn seats. Unlikely as it may seem now, you may at some time see a kind of moderated Corbynism in alliance with both the Lib Dems and SNP.0 -
Sounds like quite a good option for an administration to me.WhisperingOracle said:<<I think a Labour-Lib Dem coalition is very likely at some point between now and the next couple of years, however unlikely that may still seem at the moment.>>
<<If labour are like 3 short, sure. If not they might as well ask the Greens>>
I think there's also a broader issue of reviving LD support in the southwest, and a ceiling on Corbyn seats. Unlikely as it may seem now, you may at some time see a kind of moderated Corbynism in alliance with both the Lib Dems and SNP.0 -
Watching the clock tick down?dots said:
Is it mostly remainery types coming out to talk brexit today? What are the others up to...
0 -
King Cole, whilst half a dozen is a fair number, lots of people have 2-3 e-mail addresses. Can be handy, not least for having a 'professional' e-mail address.
Anyway, I must be off. Let's hope the race is exciting and profitable.0 -
Gardening....AnotherEngineer said:
Watching the clock tick down?dots said:
Is it mostly remainery types coming out to talk brexit today? What are the others up to...0 -
Perhaps the people whose job it is to detect spurious signatures are even cleverer than you are. Counterintuitive, I admit, but we can't rule it out completely.Andrew said:
Six million emails.nico67 said:Petition rate picking up now after it hit 6 million
Personally I've got half a dozen emails I use regularly, and can create hundreds more at the drop of a hat.0 -
Six lives by the sound of it, all onlineOldKingCole said:0 -
Then why not sign the Leave with no deal on April 12 if you’re so irritated by the revoke one . It seems the revoke petition is hitting a nerve with Leavers !Andrew said:
Six million emails.nico67 said:Petition rate picking up now after it hit 6 million
Personally I've got half a dozen emails I use regularly, and can create hundreds more at the drop of a hat.0 -
She looks very OK for her agekinabalu said:
Polls also show that Joanna Lumley is more popular than the Queen.HYUFD said:The monarch's end is far from inevitable, 68% of voters back the monarchy including an astonishing 61% on 18 to 24s.
The monarchy is far more popular than either the Tory of Labour parties in the UK and the Queen far more popular than either May or Corbyn.
But does this mean that Lumley should be the Queen?
I would say not. 0 -
Off your arse then.RoyalBlue said:
Somebody should start a petition to get the Queen to decide the Brexit outcome.kinabalu said:Morning all,
Whatever side of the argument we favour there is one thing on which I think we can all agree, it is proving hellish difficult to deliver on the wishes of the British people, as expressed in the Referendum of 2016, that the UK becomes an independent coastal state in charge of its own fish.
Parliament is blocking Leave with a deal. Parliament is blocking Leave without a deal. Ergo Parliament is blocking Leave. Remain then? Nein. Parliament will not Revoke and will not sanction another Referendum. Ergo Parliament is blocking Remain.
Leave or Remain, the binary 2016 choice, both are looking like unicorns.
OK, not to worry, because we can trade in this Parliament for a better model. Have a General Election. Mais non! Parliament blocks this too under the FTPA. We must wait until 2022.
Conclusion?
We need a solution which involves neither leaving nor not leaving the European Union and which lasts until 2022.
I suggest an induced coma.
She has more respect and is more trusted by the public than any politician.0 -
Jobs for life = SocialismHYUFD said:
The monarch's end is far from inevitable, 68% of voters back the monarchy including an astonishing 61% on 18 to 24s.Dura_Ace said:
I don't think Brenda would stick her gold plated oar in but if she did it would hasten the already inevitable end of the monarchy.dyedwoolie said:
Quite, If the queen gets involved it would be the beginning of the end of monarchy, politicians would act to prevent such use of 17th century powers again. There's a reason no monarch since flabby Anne has refused to sign a bill into law or used their prerogative outside the advice of the PM or in ceremonial use.HYUFD said:
No, the Queen should stay out of it, she remains popular as she does not take sides in political argumentRoyalBlue said:
Somebody should start a petition to get the Queen to decide the Brexit outcome.kinabalu said:Morning all,
Whatever side of the argument we favour there is one thing on which I think we can all agree, it is proving hellish difficult to deliver on the wishes of the British people, as expressed in the Referendum of 2016, that the UK becomes an independent coastal state in charge of its own fish.
Parliament is blocking Leave with a deal. Parliament is blocking Leave without a deal. Ergo Parliament is blocking Leave. Remain then? Nein. Parliament will not Revoke and will not sanction another Referendum. Ergo Parliament is blocking Remain.
Leave or Remain, the binary 2016 choice, both are looking like unicorns.
OK, not to worry, because we can trade in this Parliament for a better model. Have a General Election. Mais non! Parliament blocks this too under the FTPA. We must wait until 2022.
Conclusion?
We need a solution which involves neither leaving nor not leaving the European Union and which lasts until 2022.
I suggest an induced coma.
She has more respect and is more trusted by the public than any politician.
As a Republican, go for it Liz.
The monarchy is far more popular than either the Tory of Labour parties in the UK and the Queen far more popular than either May or Corbyn
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2015/09/08/monarchy-here-stay
Monarchy = Jobs for life
ergo:
Monarchy = Socialism
0 -
I like Joanna Lumley but have yet to see any polls she is more popular than the Queen though she acts even posherkinabalu said:
Polls also show that Joanna Lumley is more popular than the Queen.HYUFD said:The monarch's end is far from inevitable, 68% of voters back the monarchy including an astonishing 61% on 18 to 24s.
The monarchy is far more popular than either the Tory of Labour parties in the UK and the Queen far more popular than either May or Corbyn.
But does this mean that Lumley should be the Queen?
I would say not.0 -
A reflection of the national mood. The whole country was smilingdyedwoolie said:
Actually the most Scooby thing I ever heard was my philosophy lecturer coming in thd day Thstcher resigned and announcing 'we got her!'MarqueeMark said:
Larry's litter tray!dyedwoolie said:
Larry goes to sleep on itMarqueeMark said:
...who then has to take it home, because number 10 won't accept itdyedwoolie said:
Ultimate scooby is marching to number 10 to present a petition accompanied by a minor celebrityMarqueeMark said:
March = next tier scooby gang solution to national crisis. Lots of terribly cross people naively believing in the power of getting out of bed to show crossness.dyedwoolie said:Petition = scooby gang solution to national crisis. Lots of terribly cross people naively believing in the power of crossness.
Great work comrade, great work0 -
No anti capitalism = SocialismSunil_Prasannan said:
Jobs for life = SocialismHYUFD said:
The monarch's end is far from inevitable, 68% of voters back the monarchy including an astonishing 61% on 18 to 24s.Dura_Ace said:
I don't think Brenda would stick her gold plated oar in but if she did it would hasten the already inevitable end of the monarchy.dyedwoolie said:
Quite, If the queen gets involved it would be the beginning of the end of monarchy, politicians would act to prevent such use of 17th century powers again. There's a reason no monarch since flabby Anne has refused to sign a bill into law or used their prerogative outside the advice of the PM or in ceremonial use.HYUFD said:
No, the Queen should stay out of it, she remains popular as she does not take sides in political argumentRoyalBlue said:
Somebody should start a petition to get the Queen to decide the Brexit outcome.kinabalu said:Morning all,
Whatever side of the argument we favour there is one thing on which I think we can all agree, it is proving hellish difficult to deliver on the wishes of the British people, as expressed in the Referendum of 2016, that the UK becomes an independent coastal state in charge of its own fish.
Parliament is blocking Leave with a deal. Parliament is blocking Leave without a deal. Ergo Parliament is blocking Leave. Remain then? Nein. Parliament will not Revoke and will not sanction another Referendum. Ergo Parliament is blocking Remain.
Leave or Remain, the binary 2016 choice, both are looking like unicorns.
OK, not to worry, because we can trade in this Parliament for a better model. Have a General Election. Mais non! Parliament blocks this too under the FTPA. We must wait until 2022.
Conclusion?
We need a solution which involves neither leaving nor not leaving the European Union and which lasts until 2022.
I suggest an induced coma.
She has more respect and is more trusted by the public than any politician.
As a Republican, go for it Liz.
The monarchy is far more popular than either the Tory of Labour parties in the UK and the Queen far more popular than either May or Corbyn
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2015/09/08/monarchy-here-stay
Monarchy = Jobs for life
ergo:
Monarchy = Socialism
Pro free market = Liberalism
Pro monarchy and inherited wealth and the landed classes = Toryism0 -
Jobs for life, HYUFD. Therefore, Monachy = SocialismHYUFD said:
No anti capitalism = SocialismSunil_Prasannan said:
Jobs for life = SocialismHYUFD said:
The monarch's end is far from inevitable, 68% of voters back the monarchy including an astonishing 61% on 18 to 24s.Dura_Ace said:
I don't think Brenda would stick her gold plated oar in but if she did it would hasten the already inevitable end of the monarchy.dyedwoolie said:
Quite, If the queen gets involved it would be the beginning of the end of monarchy, politicians would act to prevent such use of 17th century powers again. There's a reason no monarch since flabby Anne has refused to sign a bill into law or used their prerogative outside the advice of the PM or in ceremonial use.HYUFD said:
No, the Queen should stay out of it, she remains popular as she does not take sides in political argumentRoyalBlue said:
Somebody should start a petition to get the Queen to decide the Brexit outcome.kinabalu said:Morning all,
Whatever side of the argument we favour there is one thing on which I think we can all agree, it is proving hellish difficult to deliver on the wishes of the British people, as expressed in the Referendum of 2016, that the UK becomes an independent coastal state in charge of its own fish.
Parliament is blocking Leave with a deal. Parliament is blocking Leave without a deal. Ergo Parliament is blocking Leave. Remain then? Nein. Parliament will not Revoke and will not sanction another Referendum. Ergo Parliament is blocking Remain.
Leave or Remain, the binary 2016 choice, both are looking like unicorns.
OK, not to worry, because we can trade in this Parliament for a better model. Have a General Election. Mais non! Parliament blocks this too under the FTPA. We must wait until 2022.
Conclusion?
We need a solution which involves neither leaving nor not leaving the European Union and which lasts until 2022.
I suggest an induced coma.
She has more respect and is more trusted by the public than any politician.
As a Republican, go for it Liz.
The monarchy is far more popular than either the Tory of Labour parties in the UK and the Queen far more popular than either May or Corbyn
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2015/09/08/monarchy-here-stay
Monarchy = Jobs for life
ergo:
Monarchy = Socialism
Pro free market = Liberalism
Pro monarchy and inherited wealth and the landed classes = Toryism 0 -
Tick. If the EU are cruel to be kind and refuse an extension the WA will pass pronto. But will they do that? Or will they prefer to be kind to be cruel? I think the latter. If MPs do not pass the WA in the next few days we are going to be tormented with a long extension.dots said:I can get it to pass the commons. A meaningful vote on 11th or 12th after the judgment of the summit where the forced option is pass the WA or it’s definitely a conscious no deal decoupling, that will ensure enough labour votes to pass it. It’s not even a gamble, it would certainly pass that forced choice.
0 -
Just amused me leftists taking credit for what the Tories had to do because they were too utterly useless to manage it. I suggested as much to a socialist worker salesman, he just insisted the revolution was coming. I got bored waiting by the millenniumRoger said:
A reflection of the national mood. The whole country was smilingdyedwoolie said:
Actually the most Scooby thing I ever heard was my philosophy lecturer coming in thd day Thstcher resigned and announcing 'we got her!'MarqueeMark said:
Larry's litter tray!dyedwoolie said:
Larry goes to sleep on itMarqueeMark said:
...who then has to take it home, because number 10 won't accept itdyedwoolie said:
Ultimate scooby is marching to number 10 to present a petition accompanied by a minor celebrityMarqueeMark said:
March = next tier scooby gang solution to national crisis. Lots of terribly cross people naively believing in the power of getting out of bed to show crossness.dyedwoolie said:Petition = scooby gang solution to national crisis. Lots of terribly cross people naively believing in the power of crossness.
Great work comrade, great work0 -
Yet something about being in the vicinity of Parliament, a journalist’s microphone and Twitter turns them into brainless simpletons incapable of rational, objective thought. It must be something rising from the Thames.IanB2 said:
There are some who are intellectually challenged (having met IDS I'd say he isn't particularly bright), but I agree the majority are intelligent in some way or other.OldKingCole said:
How many of us here have been on Constituency Panels picking candidates? Or otherwise mixed with MP's.malcolmg said:
I think you underestimate at 400, much higher I think.glw said:
I agree with you, it is hard to believe that MPs don't understand the basics of Brexit, that said we should not exclude the possibility that there really are about 400 or so very thick MPs in Parliament. It sure as hell would explain a lot.kle4 said:Thornberry knows it. I dont like to suggest insincerity but more and more on Brexit I cannot believe on a number of issues that so many people do not understand things.
Therefore it is cover for cynical positioning. Davis, Johnson and go are the same so it's not a partisan point. And May and co did it too when trying to change a WA they knew and had said could not be changed.
Rarely met one who could really be described as thick. Single-minded, unable to see anything outside their party interest perhaps.0 -
It's an interesting side effect of the last three years that Europhilia has now emerged as such a significant political force. Before 2016 those in favour of the EU were generally reluctant remainers, pragmatists primarily motivated by what they believed to be in the country's best interests. But their passions were not stirred by Brussels.
Now, we see EU flags everywhere, the 'ode to joy' being fervently sung in its original German, and Donald Tusk elevated to superhero status. Who know what the implications for our politics will be, but for sure the EU is now the salient issue for many more people than it used to be - and not in the direction one would have expected.0 -
Amazing what the threat of slight inconvenience on holiday matters can doThomasNashe said:It's an interesting side effect of the last three years that Europhilia has now emerged as such a significant political force. Before 2016 those in favour of the EU were generally reluctant remainers, pragmatists primarily motivated by what they believed to be in the country's best interests. But their passions were not stirred by Brussels.
Now, we see EU flags everywhere, the 'ode to joy' being fervently sung in its original German, and Donald Tusk elevated to superhero status. Who know what the implications for our politics will be, but for sure the EU is now the salient issue for many more people than it used to be - and not in the direction one would have expected.0 -
Yes. The flags of the EU being proudly raised high in all directions away from Parliament Square as people dispersed from the march last week was an interesting surprise to me.ThomasNashe said:It's an interesting side effect of the last three years that Europhilia has now emerged as such a significant political force. Before 2016 those in favour of the EU were generally reluctant remainers, pragmatists primarily motivated by what they believed to be in the country's best interests. But their passions were not stirred by Brussels.
Now, we see EU flags everywhere, the 'ode to joy' being fervently sung in its original German, and Donald Tusk elevated to superhero status. Who know what the implications for our politics will be, but for sure the EU is now the salient issue for many more people than it used to be - and not in the direction one would have expected.0 -
OKC, admit it is a mess and revoke given they do not want the nuclear WTO option. Only party politics holding them back, a backbone and a choice of two options. Self interest will always take precedence with the Tories.OldKingCole said:
OK, malc, what you do in present circumstances?malcolmg said:
Well spineless , self seeking , no principles , sheep like , cannon fodder. Is that any better.OldKingCole said:
How many of us here have been on Constituency Panels picking candidates? Or otherwise mixed with MP's.malcolmg said:
I think you underestimate at 400, much higher I think.glw said:
I agree with you, it is hard to believe that MPs don't understand the basics of Brexit, that said we should not exclude the possibility that there really are about 400 or so very thick MPs in Parliament. It sure as hell would explain a lot.kle4 said:Thornberry knows it. I dont like to suggest insincerity but more and more on Brexit I cannot believe on a number of issues that so many people do not understand things.
Therefore it is cover for cynical positioning. Davis, Johnson and go are the same so it's not a partisan point. And May and co did it too when trying to change a WA they knew and had said could not be changed.
Rarely met one who could really be described as thick. Single-minded, unable to see anything outside their party interest perhaps.
I know, of course, that like me, you wouldn't have started from here!0 -
The only thing to note about the Revoke petition is that there are vast numbers of people who are completely unreconciled to the referendum result. That is important and rather than seeking to pooh pooh it, Leavers should ask themselves why they have completely failed to establish a consensus, even a grudging one, for their project.
They won’t, of course.0 -
Why would people faking signatures top out at six million? Why not take it all the way to 18 million?Andrew said:
Six million emails.nico67 said:Petition rate picking up now after it hit 6 million
Personally I've got half a dozen emails I use regularly, and can create hundreds more at the drop of a hat.
How would they fake all the people talking about the petition in office kitchens all across the country (or at least London and other Remain strongholds)?
The petition is not a trump card that ends this debate in Remain's favour. Neither is it completely irrelevant.
You are fooling yourself with stories just as much as Remain supporters complaining about dodgy bus slogans. Is it really that damaging to your ego that six million people have signed a petition to Revoke that you have to lie to yourself to protect you from the truth?0
