politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This is not an early April Fools’ Day story. Iain Duncan Smith

OllyT said:

ydoethur said:

Gardenwalker said:

ydoethur said:

alex. said:

And it is ridiculous “Parliament” criticising May for not following an “alternative” course when they won’t even give her an alternative course to reject to follow.

Nail. Head.

May refused to give them an alternative until she was forced to do so just a few days ago.

She’s tried to dictate the whole process from the beginning. If it wasn’t for Gina Miller, Parliament would not have been asked at all.

And when she did offer alternatives they rejected them all. Rendering your point moot.

Gina Miller really has a lot to answer for. But Parliament has far more to answer for.

Have a good morning.

Agreed. May's main priority has always been to construct a Brexit that best suits the Conservative Party. The interests of the 58% of us that didn't vote Conservative in 2017 don't figure at all.

Corbyn is content with that because he believes No Deal is a disaster and wants the Conservatives to fall into that trap and pay the electoral price.

HYUFD said:

Boris Johnson top in new Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll on 22% but Dominic Raab surges to 2nd on 18%, Gove is third on 14%

https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/03/next-tory-leader-its-johnson-first-raab-second-gove-third-in-our-first-survey-since-mays-pledge-to-quit.html

HYUFD said:

Boris Johnson top in new Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll on 22% but Dominic Raab surges to 2nd on 18%, Gove is third on 14%, Hunt is 4th on 6% and Javid 5th on 5%

https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/03/next-tory-leader-its-johnson-first-raab-second-gove-third-in-our-first-survey-since-mays-pledge-to-quit.html

GIN1138 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Just logged on and seen the thread header..

WTF?

It's OK C_R it's just the Tory Party having a collective nervous breakdown for the second weekend in a row.

WhisperingOracle said:

HYUFD said:

Boris Johnson top in new Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll on 22% but Dominic Raab surges to 2nd on 18%, Gove is third on 14%

https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/03/next-tory-leader-its-johnson-first-raab-second-gove-third-in-our-first-survey-since-mays-pledge-to-quit.html

Looks like the Shagger is in with a shout.

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

Gauke confirming he would resign from government before no deal, but reaffirming he doesn't think it will happen. He notes the PM's earlier remarks about respecting Parliament's votes for no 'no deal', and that the people wouldn't be happy if we did.

Ok, how do they win round 170 colleagues for a compromiss which results in a long extension?

Ishmael_Z said:

5,999,524

Revoke pretty much in the bag, I think we can all agree.

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

Gauke confirming he would resign from government before no deal, but reaffirming he doesn't think it will happen. He notes the PM's earlier remarks about respecting Parliament's votes for no 'no deal', and that the people wouldn't be happy if we did.

Ok, how do they win round 170 colleagues for a compromiss which results in a long extension?

A strong whip, opposition support, and public pressure.

SandyRentool said:

Today is a slightly easier day for May to survive. Only 23 hours long.

Off topic, I keep getting adverts for sandals on PB. Targeted marketing at LibDems gone slightly astray.

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

Gauke confirming he would resign from government before no deal, but reaffirming he doesn't think it will happen. He notes the PM's earlier remarks about respecting Parliament's votes for no 'no deal', and that the people wouldn't be happy if we did.

Ok, how do they win round 170 colleagues for a compromiss which results in a long extension?

IanB2 said:

Watson saying Labour is prepared to support a variety of soft Brexit proposals underpinned by a people's vote.

Ishmael_Z said:

5,999,524

Revoke pretty much in the bag, I think we can all agree.

IanB2 said:

WhisperingOracle said:

HYUFD said:

Boris Johnson top in new Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll on 22% but Dominic Raab surges to 2nd on 18%, Gove is third on 14%

https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/03/next-tory-leader-its-johnson-first-raab-second-gove-third-in-our-first-survey-since-mays-pledge-to-quit.html

Looks like the Shagger is in with a shout.

HY continues to present these as "polls" despite the fact that they are not. It's a self-selected sample of a self-selected population.

OllyT said:

HYUFD said:

Boris Johnson top in new Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll on 22% but Dominic Raab surges to 2nd on 18%, Gove is third on 14%, Hunt is 4th on 6% and Javid 5th on 5%

https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/03/next-tory-leader-its-johnson-first-raab-second-gove-third-in-our-first-survey-since-mays-pledge-to-quit.html

I'm still relying on the good sense of the Tory MPs not to let him get anywhere near the membership run off.

WhisperingOracle said:

But I do get the feeling the conservative grassroots still like Boris. Bumbling incompetence and cynical venality cancelled out by his supposed quixotic patriotism.

GIN1138 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Just logged on and seen the thread header..

WTF?

It's OK C_R it's just the Tory Party having a collective nervous breakdown for the second weekend in a row.

Gardenwalker said:

malcolmg said:

Gardenwalker said:

malcolmg said:

Gardenwalker said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

CD13 said:

Mr L,

It shows what it thinks would have happened had we taken a different course. Balls and uncles come to mind.

PS My stories may be sh*te but they are my own work.

You have misunderstood the CER graph. The comparison is with the actual performance of a basket of other countries used to model our own economy.

Nobody is seriously claiming Brexit has aided our economy, and there’s decent enough evidence of resultant economic slowdown, yet for some reason PB’s finest wish to attack this graph?

It must truly be embarrassing to have voted for Brexit.

Not at all you halfwitted cretinous blowhard, get your head out of your own butt.

The cretin is you.

I presume you post from an asylum as your contributions are both repetitive and demented.

Have you ever read the right wing bilge you post. You must be a right bundle of laughs, I would expect you to have a little moustache and like painting.

Either you have never read any of my posts, or you have a singular definition of “right wing”.

HYUFD said:

Sir John Major on Marr now urges a cross party national unity government

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

WhisperingOracle said:

HYUFD said:

Boris Johnson top in new Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll on 22% but Dominic Raab surges to 2nd on 18%, Gove is third on 14%

https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/03/next-tory-leader-its-johnson-first-raab-second-gove-third-in-our-first-survey-since-mays-pledge-to-quit.html

Looks like the Shagger is in with a shout.

HY continues to present these as "polls" despite the fact that they are not. It's a self-selected sample of a self-selected population.

Yet the same ConHome polling sample had 60% backing May's Deal last Friday, it is not all hard Brexit diehards. Deltapoll this morning has Boris ahead amongst all voters as next Tory leader, Opinium last night had Boris the only Tory leadership candidate with better positive future PM ratings than Corbyn. The momentum is all with Boris.

My Tory Association AGM last Friday had a straw poll with Boris and Raab the top two so the ConHome poll today entirely in accordance with what I am seeing from Tory members on the ground

HYUFD said:

Sir John Major on Marr now urges a cross party national unity government

CarlottaVance said:

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

‘New Party A’ would emphasise community and society, be happy with current or higher levels of immigration, want more action to tackle climate change, support aid to poorer countries, promote rehabilitation in the criminal justice system, strongly support rights for same-sex couples and favour international co-operation, including the closest possible links with the EU after Brexit. ‘New Party B’ would aim to reduce immigration, take a tougher line on law and order, spend the international aid budget in the UK instead, prefer the UK to act independently with few formal ties to the EU after Brexit, and argue that the threat of climate change had been exaggerated, that traditional values had been wrongly neglected and that the government had become too much of a nanny state. When I asked people how they would vote in an election with these new entrants standing against the current players, the liberal ‘New Party A’ did well, with 24% of the vote, including nearly a third of 2017 Labour voters and nearly half of Lib Dems. But they were pipped at the post by the much more conservative ‘New Party B’, with 27%, including more than four in ten 2017 Tories and nearly half of Leave voters.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/03/mind-the-gap-why-the-brexit-debacle-has-put-both-labour-and-the-tories-under-threat/

Hardly decisive, especially with barely half the electorate between them. Where are the other options?

The current parties.

tlg86 said:

HYUFD said:

Sir John Major on Marr now urges a cross party national unity government

I just can't see it. Labour wouldn't accept an invitation to join one and I reckon there's enough Tories who'd bring down the whole show if it was suggested.

malcolmg said:

HYUFD said:

Sir John Major on Marr now urges a cross party national unity government

More moronic bollox from the Tories, too thick to make a decision themselves they now want to bring in the nutters from the other useless parties to make it even worse.

Slackbladder said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1112288663541563393

That's not true.

Benpointer said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1112288663541563393

Labour voters who backed Leave will be able to do so again in another referendum so I don't see what the problem is.

HYUFD said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

WhisperingOracle said:

HYUFD said:

Boris Johnson top in new Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll on 22% but Dominic Raab surges to 2nd on 18%, Gove is third on 14%

https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/03/next-tory-leader-its-johnson-first-raab-second-gove-third-in-our-first-survey-since-mays-pledge-to-quit.html

Looks like the Shagger is in with a shout.

HY continues to present these as "polls" despite the fact that they are not. It's a self-selected sample of a self-selected population.

Yet the same ConHome polling sample had 60% backing May's Deal last Friday, it is not all hard Brexit diehards. Deltapoll this morning has Boris ahead amongst all voters as next Tory leader, Opinium last night had Boris the only Tory leadership candidate with better positive future PM ratings than Corbyn. The momentum is all with Boris.

My Tory Association AGM last Friday had a straw poll with Boris and Raab the top two so the ConHome poll today entirely in accordance with what I am seeing from Tory members on the ground

Tim Bale''s scientific Tory members poll from Sussex Uni last December also had Boris ahead on 20%, Mogg second on 15% and Javid and Davis third on 8%

https://esrcpartymembersproject.org

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

@Foxy - quote: Revoke now more popular than a #peoplesvote

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112116959599099904?s=19

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112117322087567361?s=19

I think thats what would be called 'a tie'

Yes/no questions with no other options would be better presented without the DKs:

Revoke - 51% support
Referendum - 51%
No Deal - 46%

Slackbladder said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1112288663541563393

That's not true.

OllyT said:

HYUFD said:

Boris Johnson top in new Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll on 22% but Dominic Raab surges to 2nd on 18%, Gove is third on 14%, Hunt is 4th on 6% and Javid 5th on 5%

https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/03/next-tory-leader-its-johnson-first-raab-second-gove-third-in-our-first-survey-since-mays-pledge-to-quit.html

I'm still relying on the good sense of the Tory MPs not to let him get anywhere near the membership run off.

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

HYUFD said:

Sir John Major on Marr now urges a cross party national unity government

I just can't see it. Labour wouldn't accept an invitation to join one and I reckon there's enough Tories who'd bring down the whole show if it was suggested.

It would be the best option for the country but yes party politics as ever comes first

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

HYUFD said:

Sir John Major on Marr now urges a cross party national unity government

More moronic bollox from the Tories, too thick to make a decision themselves they now want to bring in the nutters from the other useless parties to make it even worse.

Don't worry - I doubt they'll ask the nutters from the SNP.

HYUFD said:

Major also urges the Deal to be passed with a confirmatory referendum

tlg86 said:

HYUFD said:

Sir John Major on Marr now urges a cross party national unity government

I just can't see it. Labour wouldn't accept an invitation to join one and I reckon there's enough Tories who'd bring down the whole show if it was suggested.

WhisperingOracle said:

HYUFD said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

WhisperingOracle said:

HYUFD said:

Boris Johnson top in new Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll on 22% but Dominic Raab surges to 2nd on 18%, Gove is third on 14%

https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/03/next-tory-leader-its-johnson-first-raab-second-gove-third-in-our-first-survey-since-mays-pledge-to-quit.html

Looks like the Shagger is in with a shout.

HY continues to present these as "polls" despite the fact that they are not. It's a self-selected sample of a self-selected population.

Yet the same ConHome polling sample had 60% backing May's Deal last Friday, it is not all hard Brexit diehards. Deltapoll this morning has Boris ahead amongst all voters as next Tory leader, Opinium last night had Boris the only Tory leadership candidate with better positive future PM ratings than Corbyn. The momentum is all with Boris.

My Tory Association AGM last Friday had a straw poll with Boris and Raab the top two so the ConHome poll today entirely in accordance with what I am seeing from Tory members on the ground

Tim Bale''s scientific Tory members poll from Sussex Uni last December also had Boris ahead on 20%, Mogg second on 15% and Javid and Davis third on 8%

https://esrcpartymembersproject.org

This is where I think the Shagger's party appeal intersects with a national appeal as mentioned below. Alex is probably correct that Tory members don't see his flaws ; but a number of Tory voters rather than members see his flaws and still support him.

kle4 said:

Thornberry knows it. I dont like to suggest insincerity but more and more on Brexit I cannot believe on a number of issues that so many people do not understand things.

Therefore it is cover for cynical positioning. Davis, Johnson and go are the same so it's not a partisan point. And May and co did it too when trying to change a WA they knew and had said could not be changed.

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

HYUFD said:

Sir John Major on Marr now urges a cross party national unity government

I just can't see it. Labour wouldn't accept an invitation to join one and I reckon there's enough Tories who'd bring down the whole show if it was suggested.

It would be the best option for the country but yes party politics as ever comes first

I'd think it quite attractive to Labour

It gets rid of Brexit, at least temporarily and possibly permanently, with a range of fingerprints on the deed. Their involvement gives their new team some credibility. The Tories will find it more difficult and are more likely to split over it. And being clearly temporary it leads inevitably toward a GE.

Benpointer said:

<10 minutes away from reaching 6m signatures:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584</p&gt;

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

TheJezziah said:

Nigelb said:

TheJezziah said:

Nigelb said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I disclaim any knowledge, but it seems to me that even if a significant majority in the House can agree on a serious alternative to May’s WA, it would need at a minimum to be able to demonstrate to the EU that the majority is sustainable - if there were to be any chance of a further extension from the EU.

Passing legislation into law without the co-operation of the government simply isnt going to happen in the next ten days. And almost certainly isn’t, even with it.

In other words, any significant alternative needs the current government’s active approval, or a new government commanding a majority in the existing parliament, by the end of the week.

Just guessing here but on the EU elections point they would presumably only need something passed to hold them if article 50 or something else elections.

All guesswork no knowledge.

The EU election issue is a distraction, I think. They could be managed much more easily than any alternative deal which required our holding them could be arranged.

Also partially in response to Big G

My other guess would be along the lines of Edmund, EU doesn't want no deal, euro elections are the only requirement otherwise Ireland has a big problem and the EU have their back. Macron will talk tough but the 27 will come to a position of extension just for Euro elections.

It is the British side that is the bigger potential problems, say if May wanted no deal.

The problem is that both May and Corbyn want no deal. Which is why we have to bypass both front benches and take back control. The GNU doesn't have to do much nor last very long- a caretaker government which allows No Deal Brexit to be stopped, gives time for both parties to resolve their splits and then call an election. And if their caretaker programme does a few other useful things like scrap the FTPA and bring in STV then all the better.

May does not want No Deal, if she did we would have left the EU last Friday with No Deal and No extension of Article 50

TheAncientMariner said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheAncientMariner said:

Gardenwalker said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

CD13 said:

Mr L,

It shows what it thinks would have happened had we taken a different course. Balls and uncles come to mind.

PS My stories may be sh*te but they are my own work.

You have misunderstood the CER graph. The comparison is with the actual performance of a basket of other countries used to model our own economy.

Nobody is seriously claiming Brexit has aided our economy, and there’s decent enough evidence of resultant economic slowdown, yet for some reason PB’s finest wish to attack this graph?

It must truly be embarrassing to have voted for Brexit.

It must be totally embarrasing to take the CER graph at face value without delving into the source of their data. This is a fine example of cherry-picking your data.

Since Jul 2016 the German Economy has grown by 4% https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-growth The UK by 4.2% https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth

So what? If our economy were in lock-step with the German economy, we'd have been able to join the Euro. It is you who is cherry-picking data. The deviation is real. The interpretation, or if you prefer, the speculation that this is due to Brexit could, however, be wrong.

It seems you don't understand - the figures have been selected to show that the UK is doing worse than other countries, and then hang the blame on Brexit - It is true that we are doing relatively worse than the USA - but we are growing at a comparable rate to Germany and Luxembourg. The reason why we are doing worse than the USA is due to Trump's expansionist policies - cutting taxes etc and has absolutely nothing to do with the fact that we held a referendum in 2016.

IanB2 said:

Rawnsley: She got the keys to Number 10 because Tory MPs thought her a safe bet. She’s been anything but.

One of her few friends once told me that Mrs May approached Brexit as if the country had set her a piece of fiendishly difficult homework. The downside of this doggedness has been inflexibility... She didn’t have the largeness of character and the breadth of political skills necessary to handle the vast complexity of the Brexit challenge, but then it is arguable that such a person does not exist.

The Tory party is now preparing to find a new chief for its cannibalistic tribe. It will be convenient for a lot of people, especially those planning to contest for the corroded crown, to cast all the blame for 33 months of unrelenting and still unresolved chaos on the woman who will soon be leaving Number 10. Convenient, but not altogether accurate. The problem with the Conservative party is not Mrs May. The problem with the Conservative party is the Conservative party. The problem with Brexit is not Mrs May. The problem with Brexit is Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/31/theresa-may-dealt-worst-of-hands-played-it-spectacularly-badly

Sunil_Prasannan said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Ishmael_Z said:

6m!!! Oh happy day.

Indeed, the long-delayed milestone is finally reached.

Only TEN MILLION more and they reach the Remain tally in 2016!

Benpointer said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Ishmael_Z said:

6m!!! Oh happy day.

Indeed, the long-delayed milestone is finally reached.

Only TEN MILLION more and they reach the Remain tally in 2016!

Only 16.8 MILLION more and Leave reaches its tally in 2016!...

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/229963