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  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 6,996
    edited March 2019
    A key influencing factor has been the tone of May's choices. Although she's at heart an economic remainer, she's an immigration leaver, and she's both reflected that in her negotiation and open-ness to the ERG, and public statements, making that the public "brand" of Brexit. There's no way in which that could not have been divisive.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    We can put Mark Francois down as a maybe?

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1111197971800948736
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Jonathan said:

    Charles said:

    There’s another option they haven’t considered

    Basically the DUP is saying “we remain in the Union on our terms”. They are asking the other countries to pay a significant price to facilitate that

    That’s fine provided that the other countries agree.

    How about a NI referendum on:

    (a) leave with the Deal

    or

    (b) reunification of Ireland & rUK leaves with the Deal sans backstop

    Labour might vote for that...

    More brinkmanship and game playing. Just give us all a vote.
    Sure. Deal or No Deal is fine and respects the referendum
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,475

    Freggles said:
    Why I love Nick Soames. From 2013.

    The Mail on Sunday reports that Soames told the MP for Windsor: "You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."

    "This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"

    https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/10/21/adam-afriyie-nicholas-soames_n_4134750.html
    I recall you had some choice words of your own at the time, among with a few others...

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/716/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-pb-nighthawks-is-now-open/p1
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638

    A key influencing factor has been the tone of May's choices. Although she's at heart an economic remainer, she's an immigration leaver, and she's both reflected that in her negotiation and open-ness to the ERG, and public statements, making that the public "brand" of Brexit. There's no way in which that couldn't have been divisive.

    Mass Immigration is the entire reason we are in this mess. There wouldnt have been a UKIP surge, a referendum or a leave win without it.

    May was the Home Sec who presided over the biggest net migration figures on record.
  • We can put Mark Francois down as a maybe?

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1111197971800948736

    That must sound very tempting to the whips.

    I bet there’s a queue in Julian Smith’s office to put a shotgun in the mouth of Mark Francois.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,451

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    There was some speculation yesterday that the DUP might simply abstain in MV3. Their statement didn't indicate that but if they did does anyone have a feel for whether enough ERG members have now changed their position?
    Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.

    I think even with the DUP on board there are over 30 unreconciled Tories. Read the account of Steve Baker addressing the ERG and ask yourself how likely he is to change what we can politely call his mind. He is far from alone.
    The account of Steve Baker's rant at the meeting is one of the funniest things I've read.
    This man was a minister of the crown in the present government. That is terrifying.
    Mark Francois was a Minister of State in the previous government.
    You're not making me feel better. Imagine being a backbencher who hadn't held a position and those two had. It would be practically defamatory.
    I know it won't make you feel better, but I note Guto Bebb was a Minister of State, too. I'd be hard put to determine whether he's animal or vegetable.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,167
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think maybe somebody posted this already but if so here it is again because it's so great.

    https://twitter.com/MShepheard/status/1111167940911656960

    In particular, look down the bottom at the abstentions, which tell you where there may be extra votes to get stuff over the line.

    Yeah that chart isn't great news for the "confirmatory referendum" lot. Customs & Common Market 2.0 looking better than their initial Ayes.
    The question for Monday is whether if options are combined - for example a confirmatory referendum on a deal with a CU - do you build support by bringing together the supporters of both, or lose people by giving them more to object to?
    Yes. A good approach for Monday would be preference votes (AV) for four proposals.

    1. Mrs May's deal
    2. Mrs May's deal plus ref
    3. CU
    4. CU plus ref
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,692
    DavidL said:


    It's a problem. I am a Unionist not just for Scotland but also for NI. But boy, do they make loving NI being a part of the UK hard. From their medieval social attitudes, their bigotry and their greed they are just an embarrassment and a lot less British than they like to think they are.

    Love with an £11bn/year pricetag...
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 6,996
    edited March 2019
    isam said:

    A key influencing factor has been the tone of May's choices. Although she's at heart an economic remainer, she's an immigration leaver, and she's both reflected that in her negotiation and open-ness to the ERG, and public statements, making that the public "brand" of Brexit. There's no way in which that couldn't have been divisive.

    Mass Immigration is the entire reason we are in this mess. There wouldnt have been a UKIP surge, a referendum or a leave win without it.

    May was the Home Sec who presided over the biggest net migration figures on record.
    Immigration, I would say, is the main tool used by others to engineer Brexit, certainly ; although not everyone voted on that basis. Some form of national consensus on Brexit would require some sugar-coating or ambivalence on this.

    Instead May's experience of her own failure to meet her own much-trumpeted goals at the Home Office, combined with a retreat to the certainties of her own background, has made her an immigration fanatic when it comes to Brexit. That was never going to unify the country.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    What's remarkable in that list actually is that here is no traditional favourite this time like there have been on previous occasions.

    Typically the favourite has been Odds-On (but still lost). Only twice on that list was the initial favourite not odds-on and only Davis at 5/2 was just greater than 2/1.

    Gove starting out at 4/1 is starting out at very low odds compared to all the other initial favourites. Indeed he's starting out at lower odds than many eventual winners. Major, Hague, IDS and May all began shorter than 4/1 and won.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239
    The Guardian has an ominous quote from a DUP source that Bojo “has done nothing to enhance his reputation for being slippery”.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/the-waugh-zone-thursday-march-28-2019_uk_5c9c8f7be4b072a7f6052f3a?ot8

    The article also suggests expectation that the DUP will fold at the last minute. But also that when people finally see the Withdrawal Bill - drafted but being kept under wraps - it will turn people against the deal.

    And the remarkable little factoid that on the Extension Vote half of the Tory Whips' Office defied their own three-line whip.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Much of the problem is down to May.

    The country was split on 23rd June 2016 and stood, feet shuffling and uncomfortable, in two opposed camps. The country plunged into political chaos as Cameron fled.
    We needed a unifier. Someone to forge a consensus, to conciliate. Instead, we got a divisive, adversarial politician after the Conservative Party chose their figure.

    She instantly focused only on the 52%, failing to reach out to the remainder, intent on finding her own, blinkered, view of what would satisfy a majority of the majority. Failing to realise that the moment she did that, she was necessarily aiming only at a minority of the country and pushing aside the others.

    Her red lines were made with that in mind. Even the “No Freedom of Movement” red line – her strongest one – was a perfect example. By definition, the 48% would tolerate it in order to avoid something worse; they’d explicitly voted that way. As long as the proportion of the 52% who would insist on it was below 96% of them, she was aiming at a minority and excluding a majority. And that’s just one example.

    Her rhetoric has been divisive and she’s quietly enjoyed the overblown adversarial trumpeting of the tabloids (“Enemies of the People”, “Crush the Saboteurs” and so on) – which encourages them to continue (because she looks good when they do it). She could have cracked down on them and announced the need for reconciliation and consensus. But she didn’t, because she’s not a unifier but a divider.

    We’ve gone from that awkward split to a polarised chasm of anger and distaste under her watch. Maybe it would have been a real challenge to do any differently, maybe someone else couldn’t have done better.

    But she took it on. She was so badly the wrong person for a challenge to which she was utterly unsuited, and then refused to let anyone else try, continuing to divide and polarise. I don’t know what the solution is from here. I’m not sure there is one now.

    Maybe Clarke could do better.

    In fairness to May she thought she could unify those people who had voted to Remain for economic reasons, but were negative about immigration, with the Leavers to create a consensus forging majority of ~70%. At one point it looked like a slam dunk, but she managed to smash it up.
  • We can put Mark Francois down as a maybe?

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1111197971800948736

    Looking at that picture is

    1) John Whittingdale really tall

    2) Mark Francois really short

    or is

    3) Mark Francois really far away?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    isam said:

    A key influencing factor has been the tone of May's choices. Although she's at heart an economic remainer, she's an immigration leaver, and she's both reflected that in her negotiation and open-ness to the ERG, and public statements, making that the public "brand" of Brexit. There's no way in which that couldn't have been divisive.

    Mass Immigration is the entire reason we are in this mess. There wouldnt have been a UKIP surge, a referendum or a leave win without it.

    May was the Home Sec who presided over the biggest net migration figures on record.
    Immigration, I would say, is the popular tool others used to engineer Brexit, certainly. And May's experience of that failure, combined with a retreat to the certainties of her own background, has made her an immigration fanatic when it comes to Brexit. That was never going to unify the country.
    Nothing was going to unify the country. Keeping FoM wouldn't unify the country.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885
    Scott_P said:
    Shows how arrogant and stupid the Tories really are, the rot started with that donkey Cameron and was ably continued by the myriad of fools and comic singers of the Tory party elite.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,400
    In a hope that I am proved wrong but the 6 million on the petition has seemed just about 24 hours away for several days now. As it gets closer in numbers the hourly rate diminishes enough to keep it the same distance away in time.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,135
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    There was some speculation yesterday that the DUP might simply abstain in MV3. Their statement didn't indicate that but if they did does anyone have a feel for whether enough ERG members have now changed their position?
    Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.

    I think even with the DUP on board there are over 30 unreconciled Tories. Read the account of Steve Baker addressing the ERG and ask yourself how likely he is to change what we can politely call his mind. He is far from alone.
    The account of Steve Baker's rant at the meeting is one of the funniest things I've read.
    This man was a minister of the crown in the present government. That is terrifying.
    Mark Francois was a Minister of State in the previous government.
    You're not making me feel better. Imagine being a backbencher who hadn't held a position and those two had. It would be practically defamatory.
    I know it won't make you feel better, but I note Guto Bebb was a Minister of State, too. I'd be hard put to determine whether he's animal or vegetable.
    It seems that PC had better judgment of his abilities than the Conservatives did.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    pb Tories for the past few years: Corbynistas plan mass deselections of Labour MPs; Corbyn will sell out Northern Ireland to his IRA mates.

    pb Tories for the past few months: deselect the ERG/Remoaners; get shot of Northern Ireland and Scotland.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885
    Scott_P said:

    So it all tracks back to Cameron & Osborne.....

    No, it tracks back to the PM who triggered Article 50 without a clue
    Cowardly Cameron messed up the referendum with his arrogance and then ran away.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    If we had a referendum on Gay Marriage and YES won 52-48, three years later when no gay person had married another, and a PM who wa a backer of NO was on the verge of being forced into a 2nd referendum between her deal of "Gay Marriage allowed but churches are allowed to opt out" and "No Gay Marriage allowed at all", would that be fair enough?

    The ERG in this case would be people who wanted Gay Marriage to be considered exactly the same as traditional marriage
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,325

    We can put Mark Francois down as a maybe?

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1111197971800948736

    Looking at that picture is

    1) John Whittingdale really tall

    2) Mark Francois really short

    or is

    3) Mark Francois really far away?
    Mark Francois looks like my uncle! :open_mouth:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239

    We can put Mark Francois down as a maybe?

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1111197971800948736

    Looking at that picture is

    1) John Whittingdale really tall

    2) Mark Francois really short

    or is

    3) Mark Francois really far away?
    If he is really far away his head must be really big
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885
    edited March 2019
    They really are as stupid as they act, you keep thinking they must have some great scheme behind their stupidity , but they never have.
    PS: Also it was themselves that lost it as even Callaghan said. Their gerrymandering of the referendum vote came back to bite them big time.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638

    What's remarkable in that list actually is that here is no traditional favourite this time like there have been on previous occasions.

    Typically the favourite has been Odds-On (but still lost). Only twice on that list was the initial favourite not odds-on and only Davis at 5/2 was just greater than 2/1.

    Gove starting out at 4/1 is starting out at very low odds compared to all the other initial favourites. Indeed he's starting out at lower odds than many eventual winners. Major, Hague, IDS and May all began shorter than 4/1 and won.
    Yes, if those other examples are from when the leadership contest was underway, quoting Gove at 4/1 now alongside them is not appropriate
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239

    What's remarkable in that list actually is that here is no traditional favourite this time like there have been on previous occasions.

    Typically the favourite has been Odds-On (but still lost). Only twice on that list was the initial favourite not odds-on and only Davis at 5/2 was just greater than 2/1.

    Gove starting out at 4/1 is starting out at very low odds compared to all the other initial favourites. Indeed he's starting out at lower odds than many eventual winners. Major, Hague, IDS and May all began shorter than 4/1 and won.
    longer odds. longer.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 6,996
    edited March 2019
    kjh said:

    In a hope that I am proved wrong but the 6 million on the petition has seemed just about 24 hours away for several days now. As it gets closer in numbers the hourly rate diminishes enough to keep it the same distance away in time.

    It's slowing down. First the pledge to debate it, and then the official government response to it, have notably slowed it down since the end of last week. It will still hit six million sometime today, I think, but its second life might only be in about a week's time if there's no progress, I would also think.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,182
    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think maybe somebody posted this already but if so here it is again because it's so great.

    https://twitter.com/MShepheard/status/1111167940911656960

    In particular, look down the bottom at the abstentions, which tell you where there may be extra votes to get stuff over the line.

    Yeah that chart isn't great news for the "confirmatory referendum" lot. Customs & Common Market 2.0 looking better than their initial Ayes.
    The question for Monday is whether if options are combined - for example a confirmatory referendum on a deal with a CU - do you build support by bringing together the supporters of both, or lose people by giving them more to object to?
    Yes. A good approach for Monday would be preference votes (AV) for four proposals.

    1. Mrs May's deal
    2. Mrs May's deal plus ref
    3. CU
    4. CU plus ref

    The ERG are not going to be happy that all their avenues are blocked off... There may be trouble ahead....
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,977

    pb Tories for the past few years: Corbynistas plan mass deselections of Labour MPs; Corbyn will sell out Northern Ireland to his IRA mates.

    pb Tories for the past few months: deselect the ERG/Remoaners; get shot of Northern Ireland and Scotland.

    It hurts because it's true.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239
    isam said:

    Much of the problem is down to May.

    The country was split on 23rd June 2016 and stood, feet shuffling and uncomfortable, in two opposed canly on the 52%, failing to reach out to the remainder, intent on finding her own, blinkered, view of what would satisfy a majority of the majority. Failing to realise that the moment she did that, she was necessarily aiming only at a minority of the country and pushing aside the others.

    Her red lines were made with that in mind. Even the “No Freedom of Movement” red line – her strongest one – was a perfect example. By definition, the 48% would tolerate it in order to avoid something worse; they’d explicitly voted that way. As long as the proportion of the 52% who would insist on it was below 96% of them, she was aiming at a minority and excluding a majority. And that’s just one example.

    Her rhetoric has been divisive and she’s quietly enjoyed the overblown adversarial trumpeting of the tabloids (“Enemies of the People”, “Crush the Saboteurs” and so on) – which encourages them to continue (because she looks good when they do it). She could have cracked down on them and announced the need for reconciliation and consensus. But she didn’t, because she’s not a unifier but a divider.

    We’ve gone from that awkward split to a polarised chasm of anger and distaste under her watch. Maybe it would have been a real challenge to do any differently, maybe someone else couldn’t have done better.

    But she took it on. She was so badly the wrong person for a challenge to which she was utterly unsuited, and then refused to let anyone else try, continuing to divide and polarise. I don’t know what the solution is from here. I’m not sure there is one now.

    Maybe Clarke could do better.

    That's just a long winded way of saying you wished Remain had won. Taking bits off the 52% whilst assuming total unity of the 48% is for the birds. May's deal upset the hardline Leavers as much as the extremist Remainers. Leave actually won, so she was entitled to skew her deal far more to that side of the argument than she did, and if she had, rather than try to please everyone, it might have worked. If anything, she gave hope to all sides that by sticking to their extremist position they might hit the jackpot, and they couldn't help themselves, so here we are.
    The leader didn't need to try and please everyone, she needed to show some leadership and tell some hard truths. She could have stood up and set out a path toward soft Brexit, reaching out for a cross-party consensus and facing down the ultras at the start. The reasons why she couldn't or didn't are well rehearsed, but don't change that not doing so was a mistake.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    This overlooks the fact that, due to her upbringing and background, the togetherness of the Conservative party and Britain also mean roughly the same for her. I think the electoral meets the psychological with her party unity obsession at all costs.

    Ironic she might facilitate the break up of the union then
    No as only No Deal really threatens the Union and May has ruled that out unless the Commons voted for it and remember almost a third of Tory MPs voted against No Deal last night so that splits the Tories too if less so than revoke Article 50 or EUref2
    LOL
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,414
    IanB2 said:

    The Guardian has an ominous quote from a DUP source that Bojo “has done nothing to enhance his reputation for being slippery”.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/the-waugh-zone-thursday-march-28-2019_uk_5c9c8f7be4b072a7f6052f3a?ot8

    The article also suggests expectation that the DUP will fold at the last minute. But also that when people finally see the Withdrawal Bill - drafted but being kept under wraps - it will turn people against the deal.

    And the remarkable little factoid that on the Extension Vote half of the Tory Whips' Office defied their own three-line whip.

    The DUP will not fold. They represent one of the most entrenched and unyielding political tribes in the world. Never surrender.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Jonathan said:


    It’s called compromise. An old fashioned concept. May whips a CU, gives enough people a reason to support the deal, which thereby passes. She then retires having passed Brexit. We move on.

    The risk is that adding a CU into the already toxic brew of the fucking shit deal creates more tory recusants.
    The key to resolving this however is gaining opposition support to outweigh the Tory no surrender brigade. Any option that attracts significant opposition support can afford to lose some more Tories.
    Why didn’t the SNP or LibDems support the CU option?
    For SNP it did not support Freedom of Movement
    Too many people with too many red lines. Although I must admit I'm still an unreconstructed Remainer.
    Freedom of Movement is essential for Scotland
  • isam said:

    A key influencing factor has been the tone of May's choices. Although she's at heart an economic remainer, she's an immigration leaver, and she's both reflected that in her negotiation and open-ness to the ERG, and public statements, making that the public "brand" of Brexit. There's no way in which that couldn't have been divisive.

    Mass Immigration is the entire reason we are in this mess. There wouldnt have been a UKIP surge, a referendum or a leave win without it.

    May was the Home Sec who presided over the biggest net migration figures on record.
    Immigration, I would say, is the popular tool others used to engineer Brexit, certainly. And May's experience of that failure, combined with a retreat to the certainties of her own background, has made her an immigration fanatic when it comes to Brexit. That was never going to unify the country.
    Nothing was going to unify the country. Keeping FoM wouldn't unify the country.
    Some compromise on FoM might, effectively.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239

    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think maybe somebody posted this already but if so here it is again because it's so great.

    https://twitter.com/MShepheard/status/1111167940911656960

    In particular, look down the bottom at the abstentions, which tell you where there may be extra votes to get stuff over the line.

    Yeah that chart isn't great news for the "confirmatory referendum" lot. Customs & Common Market 2.0 looking better than their initial Ayes.
    The question for Monday is whether if options are combined - for example a confirmatory referendum on a deal with a CU - do you build support by bringing together the supporters of both, or lose people by giving them more to object to?
    Yes. A good approach for Monday would be preference votes (AV) for four proposals.

    1. Mrs May's deal
    2. Mrs May's deal plus ref
    3. CU
    4. CU plus ref

    The ERG are not going to be happy that all their avenues are blocked off... There may be trouble ahead....
    Listening to the radio interviews this morning, the point was made that the choice of options was up to the Speaker, but Letwin appeared to suggest that rather than take options off the table in advance there would be some sort of voting process that enabled this to happen. My bet is on multiple ballots with eliminations, since we know how resistant many MPs are to preferential voting.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,153
    According to the front page posted yesterday, Howard was the 10/11 favourite (maybe why Ladbrokes omitted it)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,451

    kjh said:

    In a hope that I am proved wrong but the 6 million on the petition has seemed just about 24 hours away for several days now. As it gets closer in numbers the hourly rate diminishes enough to keep it the same distance away in time.

    It's slowing down. First the pledge to debate it, and then the official government response to it, have notably slowed it down since the end of last week. It will still hit six million sometime today, I think, but its second life might only be in about a week's time if there's no progress, I would also think.
    Anyone who would sign it has signed, pretty much.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,344
    Mr. JohnL, who are these PB Tories who have stated they do not want Northern Ireland/Scotland in the UK any more?
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Much of the problem is down to May.

    The country was split on 23rd June 2016 and stood, feet shuffling and uncomfortable, in two opposed canly on the 52%, failing to reach out to the remainder, intent on finding her own, blinkered, view of what would satisfy a majority of the majority. Failing to realise that the moment she did that, she was necessarily aiming only at a minority of the country and pushing aside the others.

    Her red lines were made with that in mind. Even the “No Freedom of Movement” red line – her strongest one – was a perfect example. By definition, the 48% would tolerate it in order to avoid something worse; they’d explicitly voted that way. As long as the proportion of the 52% who would insist on it was below 96% of them, she was aiming at a minority and excluding a majority. And that’s just one example.

    Her rhetoric has been divisive and she’s quietly enjoyed the overblown adversarial trumpeting of the tabloids (“Enemies of the People”, “Crush the Saboteurs” and so on) – which encourages them to continue (because she looks good when they do it). She could have cracked down on them and announced the need for reconciliation and consensus. But she didn’t, because she’s not a unifier but a divider.

    We’ve gone from that awkward split to a polarised chasm of anger and distaste under her watch. Maybe it would have been a real challenge to do any differently, maybe someone else couldn’t have done better.

    But she took it on. She was so badly the wrong person for a challenge to which she was utterly unsuited, and then refused to let anyone else try, continuing to divide and polarise. I don’t know what the solution is from here. I’m not sure there is one now.

    Maybe Clarke could do better.

    That's just a long winded way of saying you wished Remain had won. Taking bits off the 52% whilst assuming total unity of the 48% is for the birds. May's deal upset the hardline Leavers as much as the extremist Remainers. Leave actually won, so she was entitled to skew her deal far more to that side of the argument than she did, and if she had, rather than try to please everyone, it might have worked. If anything, she gave hope to all sides that by sticking to their extremist position they might hit the jackpot, and they couldn't help themselves, so here we are.
    The leader didn't need to try and please everyone, she needed to show some leadership and tell some hard truths. She could have stood up and set out a path toward soft Brexit, reaching out for a cross-party consensus and facing down the ultras at the start. The reasons why she couldn't or didn't are well rehearsed, but don't change that not doing so was a mistake.
    The ultras being?
  • Sean_F said:

    kjh said:

    In a hope that I am proved wrong but the 6 million on the petition has seemed just about 24 hours away for several days now. As it gets closer in numbers the hourly rate diminishes enough to keep it the same distance away in time.

    It's slowing down. First the pledge to debate it, and then the official government response to it, have notably slowed it down since the end of last week. It will still hit six million sometime today, I think, but its second life might only be in about a week's time if there's no progress, I would also think.
    Anyone who would sign it has signed, pretty much.
    Not if no-deal is seriously threatened.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239

    kjh said:

    In a hope that I am proved wrong but the 6 million on the petition has seemed just about 24 hours away for several days now. As it gets closer in numbers the hourly rate diminishes enough to keep it the same distance away in time.

    It's slowing down. First the pledge to debate it, and then the official government response to it, have notably slowed it down since the end of last week. It will still hit six million sometime today, I think, but its second life might only be in about a week's time if there's no progress, I would also think.
    Tomorrow evening, doing the maths.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,135

    We can put Mark Francois down as a maybe?

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1111197971800948736

    Looking at that picture is

    1) John Whittingdale really tall

    2) Mark Francois really short

    or is

    3) Mark Francois really far away?
    Mark Francois suffers from both short man syndrome and French name syndrome.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,182
    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think maybe somebody posted this already but if so here it is again because it's so great.

    https://twitter.com/MShepheard/status/1111167940911656960

    In particular, look down the bottom at the abstentions, which tell you where there may be extra votes to get stuff over the line.

    Yeah that chart isn't great news for the "confirmatory referendum" lot. Customs & Common Market 2.0 looking better than their initial Ayes.
    The question for Monday is whether if options are combined - for example a confirmatory referendum on a deal with a CU - do you build support by bringing together the supporters of both, or lose people by giving them more to object to?
    Yes. A good approach for Monday would be preference votes (AV) for four proposals.

    1. Mrs May's deal
    2. Mrs May's deal plus ref
    3. CU
    4. CU plus ref
    The ERG are not going to be happy that all their avenues are blocked off... There may be trouble ahead....
    Listening to the radio interviews this morning, the point was made that the choice of options was up to the Speaker, but Letwin appeared to suggest that rather than take options off the table in advance there would be some sort of voting process that enabled this to happen. My bet is on multiple ballots with eliminations, since we know how resistant many MPs are to preferential voting.
    Indeed...But 'all' of those options are for Brexits softer than what both the ERG want and what the DUP want. So really, where do they go? Apart from wailing and gnashing...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    Mark Francois, John Bercow ........, but who will be their Snow White ?
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638

    According to the front page posted yesterday, Howard was the 10/11 favourite (maybe why Ladbrokes omitted it)
    Who were the other runners when Davis was 5/2 and Cameron 9/1?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,226
    isam said:

    If we had a referendum on Gay Marriage and YES won 52-48, three years later when no gay person had married another, and a PM who wa a backer of NO was on the verge of being forced into a 2nd referendum between her deal of "Gay Marriage allowed but churches are allowed to opt out" and "No Gay Marriage allowed at all", would that be fair enough?

    The ERG in this case would be people who wanted Gay Marriage to be considered exactly the same as traditional marriage

    In this example did the strongest gay marriage supporters repeatedly vote against gay marriage, because the proposed law continued to allow straight people to get married?
  • Depending on the bookie David Davis or Michael Portillo was the favourite.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,167

    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think maybe somebody posted this already but if so here it is again because it's so great.

    https://twitter.com/MShepheard/status/1111167940911656960

    In particular, look down the bottom at the abstentions, which tell you where there may be extra votes to get stuff over the line.

    Yeah that chart isn't great news for the "confirmatory referendum" lot. Customs & Common Market 2.0 looking better than their initial Ayes.
    The question for Monday is whether if options are combined - for example a confirmatory referendum on a deal with a CU - do you build support by bringing together the supporters of both, or lose people by giving them more to object to?
    Yes. A good approach for Monday would be preference votes (AV) for four proposals.

    1. Mrs May's deal
    2. Mrs May's deal plus ref
    3. CU
    4. CU plus ref

    The ERG are not going to be happy that all their avenues are blocked off... There may be trouble ahead....
    They are a small minority and are not going to be happy anyway. Ignorable.

    I think CU plus Ref could get majority support including SNP, LD and TIGs who didn't support CU yesterday.

    I also think Mrs May's deal plus Ref could get majority support, losing some Tory supporters of Mrs May's deal because of Ref but gaining many more Lab, SNP, LD and TIGs who want a Ref.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,135
    isam said:

    According to the front page posted yesterday, Howard was the 10/11 favourite (maybe why Ladbrokes omitted it)
    Who were the other runners when Davis was 5/2 and Cameron 9/1?
    Fox, Clarke and Rifkind IIRC.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,112

    IanB2 said:

    The Guardian has an ominous quote from a DUP source that Bojo “has done nothing to enhance his reputation for being slippery”.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/the-waugh-zone-thursday-march-28-2019_uk_5c9c8f7be4b072a7f6052f3a?ot8

    The article also suggests expectation that the DUP will fold at the last minute. But also that when people finally see the Withdrawal Bill - drafted but being kept under wraps - it will turn people against the deal.

    And the remarkable little factoid that on the Extension Vote half of the Tory Whips' Office defied their own three-line whip.

    The DUP will not fold. They represent one of the most entrenched and unyielding political tribes in the world. Never surrender.
    Is there anything which is both logically possible and the DUP would vote for? If there isn't (and I have not found anything yet) I think their real intention is to remain.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239
    So MPs will find out whether MV3 happens tomorrow at 5.30 this evening, although it is likely we'll get at least a clue and maybe an announcement from Leadsom at 12.15.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638

    isam said:

    If we had a referendum on Gay Marriage and YES won 52-48, three years later when no gay person had married another, and a PM who wa a backer of NO was on the verge of being forced into a 2nd referendum between her deal of "Gay Marriage allowed but churches are allowed to opt out" and "No Gay Marriage allowed at all", would that be fair enough?

    The ERG in this case would be people who wanted Gay Marriage to be considered exactly the same as traditional marriage

    In this example did the strongest gay marriage supporters repeatedly vote against gay marriage, because the proposed law continued to allow straight people to get married?
    No,they voted against gay marriage because it meant that some places could marry heterosexuals while refusing to marry gay people
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,135
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think maybe somebody posted this already but if so here it is again because it's so great.

    https://twitter.com/MShepheard/status/1111167940911656960

    In particular, look down the bottom at the abstentions, which tell you where there may be extra votes to get stuff over the line.

    Yeah that chart isn't great news for the "confirmatory referendum" lot. Customs & Common Market 2.0 looking better than their initial Ayes.
    The question for Monday is whether if options are combined - for example a confirmatory referendum on a deal with a CU - do you build support by bringing together the supporters of both, or lose people by giving them more to object to?
    Yes. A good approach for Monday would be preference votes (AV) for four proposals.

    1. Mrs May's deal
    2. Mrs May's deal plus ref
    3. CU
    4. CU plus ref

    The ERG are not going to be happy that all their avenues are blocked off... There may be trouble ahead....
    They are a small minority and are not going to be happy anyway. Ignorable.

    I think CU plus Ref could get majority support including SNP, LD and TIGs who didn't support CU yesterday.

    I also think Mrs May's deal plus Ref could get majority support, losing some Tory supporters of Mrs May's deal because of Ref but gaining many more Lab, SNP, LD and TIGs who want a Ref.
    The Conservatives might support a CU addition but not a second referendum.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,400
    IanB2 said:

    kjh said:

    In a hope that I am proved wrong but the 6 million on the petition has seemed just about 24 hours away for several days now. As it gets closer in numbers the hourly rate diminishes enough to keep it the same distance away in time.

    It's slowing down. First the pledge to debate it, and then the official government response to it, have notably slowed it down since the end of last week. It will still hit six million sometime today, I think, but its second life might only be in about a week's time if there's no progress, I would also think.
    Tomorrow evening, doing the maths.
    As I said not if the rate keeps diminishing as it has been for the last few day. It has been in the 24 - 48 hours range for many days now, but the rate keeps dropping so as to keep it that far away. Hope I'm proved wrong by a the drop in rate not continuing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239
    algarkirk said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Guardian has an ominous quote from a DUP source that Bojo “has done nothing to enhance his reputation for being slippery”.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/the-waugh-zone-thursday-march-28-2019_uk_5c9c8f7be4b072a7f6052f3a?ot8

    The article also suggests expectation that the DUP will fold at the last minute. But also that when people finally see the Withdrawal Bill - drafted but being kept under wraps - it will turn people against the deal.

    And the remarkable little factoid that on the Extension Vote half of the Tory Whips' Office defied their own three-line whip.

    The DUP will not fold. They represent one of the most entrenched and unyielding political tribes in the world. Never surrender.
    Is there anything which is both logically possible and the DUP would vote for? If there isn't (and I have not found anything yet) I think their real intention is to remain.
    The huffpost article suggests both Tories and Labour are expecting them to fold for some unspecified last minute concession. Although the parallel rumours about the horrors of the draft Bill - which lays the Northern Ireland situation bare - surely can't have passed the DUP by? They are hardly going to be keen to pledge their support blind and then see the Bill they will be asked to vote for.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,707
    The least bad option that might go through to me looks like deal + referendum with a remain option. Remaining and the deal are both reasonable long term positions. Everything else is either effectively remaining but without political power, ill defined or very risky.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239

    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think maybe somebody posted this already but if so here it is again because it's so great.

    https://twitter.com/MShepheard/status/1111167940911656960

    In particular, look down the bottom at the abstentions, which tell you where there may be extra votes to get stuff over the line.

    Yeah that chart isn't great news for the "confirmatory referendum" lot. Customs & Common Market 2.0 looking better than their initial Ayes.
    The question for Monday is whether if options are combined - for example a confirmatory referendum on a deal with a CU - do you build support by bringing together the supporters of both, or lose people by giving them more to object to?
    Yes. A good approach for Monday would be preference votes (AV) for four proposals.

    1. Mrs May's deal
    2. Mrs May's deal plus ref
    3. CU
    4. CU plus ref
    The ERG are not going to be happy that all their avenues are blocked off... There may be trouble ahead....
    Listening to the radio interviews this morning, the point was made that the choice of options was up to the Speaker, but Letwin appeared to suggest that rather than take options off the table in advance there would be some sort of voting process that enabled this to happen. My bet is on multiple ballots with eliminations, since we know how resistant many MPs are to preferential voting.
    Indeed...But 'all' of those options are for Brexits softer than what both the ERG want and what the DUP want. So really, where do they go? Apart from wailing and gnashing...
    They never were going to end up anywhere else.

    Easiest option is to give them the chance to vote for no deal again, then when it gets eliminated they can either transfer or more likely drop out.
  • Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think maybe somebody posted this already but if so here it is again because it's so great.

    https://twitter.com/MShepheard/status/1111167940911656960

    In particular, look down the bottom at the abstentions, which tell you where there may be extra votes to get stuff over the line.

    Yeah that chart isn't great news for the "confirmatory referendum" lot. Customs & Common Market 2.0 looking better than their initial Ayes.
    The question for Monday is whether if options are combined - for example a confirmatory referendum on a deal with a CU - do you build support by bringing together the supporters of both, or lose people by giving them more to object to?
    Yes. A good approach for Monday would be preference votes (AV) for four proposals.

    1. Mrs May's deal
    2. Mrs May's deal plus ref
    3. CU
    4. CU plus ref

    The ERG are not going to be happy that all their avenues are blocked off... There may be trouble ahead....
    They are a small minority and are not going to be happy anyway. Ignorable.

    I think CU plus Ref could get majority support including SNP, LD and TIGs who didn't support CU yesterday.

    I also think Mrs May's deal plus Ref could get majority support, losing some Tory supporters of Mrs May's deal because of Ref but gaining many more Lab, SNP, LD and TIGs who want a Ref.
    The Conservatives might support a CU addition but not a second referendum.
    John Mann has just said on Sky there are 60 to 70 labour mps implacably opposed to a referendum

    If true there will not be a referendum
  • algarkirk said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Guardian has an ominous quote from a DUP source that Bojo “has done nothing to enhance his reputation for being slippery”.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/the-waugh-zone-thursday-march-28-2019_uk_5c9c8f7be4b072a7f6052f3a?ot8

    The article also suggests expectation that the DUP will fold at the last minute. But also that when people finally see the Withdrawal Bill - drafted but being kept under wraps - it will turn people against the deal.

    And the remarkable little factoid that on the Extension Vote half of the Tory Whips' Office defied their own three-line whip.

    The DUP will not fold. They represent one of the most entrenched and unyielding political tribes in the world. Never surrender.
    Is there anything which is both logically possible and the DUP would vote for? If there isn't (and I have not found anything yet) I think their real intention is to remain.
    To be fair, their position has been consistent. They want Brexit but cannot support anything that would end up with Northern Ireland treated differently from the rest of the UK. They have said that for a year and a half. On that basis they would prefer revoke or no deal to May's deal.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,344
    Mr. NorthWales, depends. Deal + referendum might pass the Commons.
  • Mr. NorthWales, depends. Deal + referendum might pass the Commons.

    Anything could happen but he was adamant and did say he would vote for TM deal
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,167

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think maybe somebody posted this already but if so here it is again because it's so great.

    https://twitter.com/MShepheard/status/1111167940911656960

    In particular, look down the bottom at the abstentions, which tell you where there may be extra votes to get stuff over the line.

    Yeah that chart isn't great news for the "confirmatory referendum" lot. Customs & Common Market 2.0 looking better than their initial Ayes.
    The question for Monday is whether if options are combined - for example a confirmatory referendum on a deal with a CU - do you build support by bringing together the supporters of both, or lose people by giving them more to object to?
    Yes. A good approach for Monday would be preference votes (AV) for four proposals.

    1. Mrs May's deal
    2. Mrs May's deal plus ref
    3. CU
    4. CU plus ref

    The ERG are not going to be happy that all their avenues are blocked off... There may be trouble ahead....
    They are a small minority and are not going to be happy anyway. Ignorable.

    I think CU plus Ref could get majority support including SNP, LD and TIGs who didn't support CU yesterday.

    I also think Mrs May's deal plus Ref could get majority support, losing some Tory supporters of Mrs May's deal because of Ref but gaining many more Lab, SNP, LD and TIGs who want a Ref.
    The Conservatives might support a CU addition but not a second referendum.
    Eight Tories already support a second Ref. Combine that with Mrs May's deal and some more would. How many we don't know but need to find out.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,961
    Why should we have people of French extraction such as Francois and Farage in positions of influence?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536

    Much of the problem is down to May.

    The country was split on 23rd June 2016 and stood, feet shuffling and uncomfortable, in two opposed camps. The country plunged into political chaos as Cameron fled.
    We needed a unifier. Someone to forge a consensus, to conciliate. Instead, we got a divisive, adversarial politician after the Conservative Party chose their figure.

    She instantly focused only on the 52%, failing to reach out to the remainder, intent on finding her own, blinkered, view of what would satisfy a majority of the majority. Failing to realise that the moment she did that, she was necessarily aiming only at a minority of the country and pushing aside the others.

    Her red lines were made with that in mind. Even the “No Freedom of Movement” red line – her strongest one – was a perfect example. By definition, the 48% would tolerate it in order to avoid something worse; they’d explicitly voted that way. As long as the proportion of the 52% who would insist on it was below 96% of them, she was aiming at a minority and excluding a majority. And that’s just one example.

    Her rhetoric has been divisive and she’s quietly enjoyed the overblown adversarial trumpeting of the tabloids (“Enemies of the People”, “Crush the Saboteurs” and so on) – which encourages them to continue (because she looks good when they do it). She could have cracked down on them and announced the need for reconciliation and consensus. But she didn’t, because she’s not a unifier but a divider.

    We’ve gone from that awkward split to a polarised chasm of anger and distaste under her watch. Maybe it would have been a real challenge to do any differently, maybe someone else couldn’t have done better.

    But she took it on. She was so badly the wrong person for a challenge to which she was utterly unsuited, and then refused to let anyone else try, continuing to divide and polarise. I don’t know what the solution is from here. I’m not sure there is one now.

    Maybe Clarke could do better.

    In fairness to May she thought she could unify those people who had voted to Remain for economic reasons, but were negative about immigration, with the Leavers to create a consensus forging majority of ~70%. At one point it looked like a slam dunk, but she managed to smash it up.
    Both fair points.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,287

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think maybe somebody posted this already but if so here it is again because it's so great.

    https://twitter.com/MShepheard/status/1111167940911656960

    In particular, look down the bottom at the abstentions, which tell you where there may be extra votes to get stuff over the line.

    Yeah that chart isn't great news for the "confirmatory referendum" lot. Customs & Common Market 2.0 looking better than their initial Ayes.
    The question for Monday is whether if options are combined - for example a confirmatory referendum on a deal with a CU - do you build support by bringing together the supporters of both, or lose people by giving them more to object to?
    Yes. A good approach for Monday would be preference votes (AV) for four proposals.

    1. Mrs May's deal
    2. Mrs May's deal plus ref
    3. CU
    4. CU plus ref

    The ERG are not going to be happy that all their avenues are blocked off... There may be trouble ahead....
    They are a small minority and are not going to be happy anyway. Ignorable.

    I think CU plus Ref could get majority support including SNP, LD and TIGs who didn't support CU yesterday.

    I also think Mrs May's deal plus Ref could get majority support, losing some Tory supporters of Mrs May's deal because of Ref but gaining many more Lab, SNP, LD and TIGs who want a Ref.
    The Conservatives might support a CU addition but not a second referendum.
    John Mann has just said on Sky there are 60 to 70 labour mps implacably opposed to a referendum

    If true there will not be a referendum
    That probably aligns with the MPs in the Leave constituencies at the bottom of the petition signature rates. There were a large number of Labour constituencies either in the top 100 or bottom 100.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,167

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think maybe somebody posted this already but if so here it is again because it's so great.

    https://twitter.com/MShepheard/status/1111167940911656960

    In particular, look down the bottom at the abstentions, which tell you where there may be extra votes to get stuff over the line.

    Yeah that chart isn't great news for the "confirmatory referendum" lot. Customs & Common Market 2.0 looking better than their initial Ayes.
    The question for Monday is whether if options are combined - for example a confirmatory referendum on a deal with a CU - do you build support by bringing together the supporters of both, or lose people by giving them more to object to?
    Yes. A good approach for Monday would be preference votes (AV) for four proposals.

    1. Mrs May's deal
    2. Mrs May's deal plus ref
    3. CU
    4. CU plus ref

    The ERG are not going to be happy that all their avenues are blocked off... There may be trouble ahead....
    They are a small minority and are not going to be happy anyway. Ignorable.

    I think CU plus Ref could get majority support including SNP, LD and TIGs who didn't support CU yesterday.

    I also think Mrs May's deal plus Ref could get majority support, losing some Tory supporters of Mrs May's deal because of Ref but gaining many more Lab, SNP, LD and TIGs who want a Ref.
    The Conservatives might support a CU addition but not a second referendum.
    John Mann has just said on Sky there are 60 to 70 labour mps implacably opposed to a referendum

    If true there will not be a referendum
    Not true. Only 27 Labour MPs voted against a referendum yesterday and another 19 abstained. That's not 60 to 70 implacably opposed.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,304

    We can put Mark Francois down as a maybe?

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1111197971800948736

    Looking at that picture is

    1) John Whittingdale really tall

    2) Mark Francois really short

    or is

    3) Mark Francois really far away?
    I don't know why, but that photo reminds me of cartoons by that wonderful German comic Loriot. http://www.taz.de/picture/253205/624/badewanne.jpg or http://www.taz.de/picture/252734/948/loriot_ei.jpg

    As a side point, I have never understood, why Loriot never made it in the UK, most of his shows survive translation, and is certainly the type of comedy the Brits love. I could imagine someone like Paul Merton (who is huge on comedy history) remaking them for the UK market like he did with the Lost Hancocks.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,135
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think maybe somebody posted this already but if so here it is again because it's so great.

    https://twitter.com/MShepheard/status/1111167940911656960

    In particular, look down the bottom at the abstentions, which tell you where there may be extra votes to get stuff over the line.

    Yeah that chart isn't great news for the "confirmatory referendum" lot. Customs & Common Market 2.0 looking better than their initial Ayes.
    The question for Monday is whether if options are combined - for example a confirmatory referendum on a deal with a CU - do you build support by bringing together the supporters of both, or lose people by giving them more to object to?
    Yes. A good approach for Monday would be preference votes (AV) for four proposals.

    1. Mrs May's deal
    2. Mrs May's deal plus ref
    3. CU
    4. CU plus ref

    The ERG are not going to be happy that all their avenues are blocked off... There may be trouble ahead....
    They are a small minority and are not going to be happy anyway. Ignorable.

    I think CU plus Ref could get majority support including SNP, LD and TIGs who didn't support CU yesterday.

    I also think Mrs May's deal plus Ref could get majority support, losing some Tory supporters of Mrs May's deal because of Ref but gaining many more Lab, SNP, LD and TIGs who want a Ref.
    The Conservatives might support a CU addition but not a second referendum.
    Eight Tories already support a second Ref. Combine that with Mrs May's deal and some more would. How many we don't know but need to find out.
    Many more Conservatives supported a CU and it would be easier for others to switch to that IMO.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,641

    We can put Mark Francois down as a maybe?

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1111197971800948736

    Looking at that picture is

    1) John Whittingdale really tall

    2) Mark Francois really short

    or is

    3) Mark Francois really far away?
    Mark Francois suffers from both short man syndrome and French name syndrome.
    Unlike Napoleon.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,414
    algarkirk said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Guardian has an ominous quote from a DUP source that Bojo “has done nothing to enhance his reputation for being slippery”.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/the-waugh-zone-thursday-march-28-2019_uk_5c9c8f7be4b072a7f6052f3a?ot8

    The article also suggests expectation that the DUP will fold at the last minute. But also that when people finally see the Withdrawal Bill - drafted but being kept under wraps - it will turn people against the deal.

    And the remarkable little factoid that on the Extension Vote half of the Tory Whips' Office defied their own three-line whip.

    The DUP will not fold. They represent one of the most entrenched and unyielding political tribes in the world. Never surrender.
    Is there anything which is both logically possible and the DUP would vote for? If there isn't (and I have not found anything yet) I think their real intention is to remain.
    Their real intention is to preserve unaltered the current relationship between GB and NI. This their fundamental core belief, something on which they will never compromise. If this means they have to throw Brexit under the bus then that is what they will do.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    There was some speculation yesterday that the DUP might simply abstain in MV3. Their statement didn't indicate that but if they did does anyone have a feel for whether enough ERG members have now changed their position?
    Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.

    I think even with the DUP on board there are over 30 unreconciled Tories. Read the account of Steve Baker addressing the ERG and ask yourself how likely he is to change what we can politely call his mind. He is far from alone.
    The account of Steve Baker's rant at the meeting is one of the funniest things I've read.
    Where can I read that?
    https://twitter.com/bethrigby/status/1110995981150183426?s=21
    Thanks.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536
    Scott_P said:
    Johnny Mercer is the only one I can think of who might be able to save us.
  • Idiot. Not a word I use often, but there it is.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,226
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think maybe somebody posted this already but if so here it is again because it's so great.

    https://twitter.com/MShepheard/status/1111167940911656960

    In particular, look down the bottom at the abstentions, which tell you where there may be extra votes to get stuff over the line.

    Yeah that chart isn't great news for the "confirmatory referendum" lot. Customs & Common Market 2.0 looking better than their initial Ayes.
    The question for Monday is whether if options are combined - for example a confirmatory referendum on a deal with a CU - do you build support by bringing together the supporters of both, or lose people by giving them more to object to?
    Yes. A good approach for Monday would be preference votes (AV) for four proposals.

    1. Mrs May's deal
    2. Mrs May's deal plus ref
    3. CU
    4. CU plus ref

    The ERG are not going to be happy that all their avenues are blocked off... There may be trouble ahead....
    They are a small minority and are not going to be happy anyway. Ignorable.

    I think CU plus Ref could get majority support including SNP, LD and TIGs who didn't support CU yesterday.

    I also think Mrs May's deal plus Ref could get majority support, losing some Tory supporters of Mrs May's deal because of Ref but gaining many more Lab, SNP, LD and TIGs who want a Ref.
    The Conservatives might support a CU addition but not a second referendum.
    John Mann has just said on Sky there are 60 to 70 labour mps implacably opposed to a referendum

    If true there will not be a referendum
    Not true. Only 27 Labour MPs voted against a referendum yesterday and another 19 abstained. That's not 60 to 70 implacably opposed.
    Maybe a different referendum though, the key issue is whether there's a Remain option.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think maybe somebody posted this already but if so here it is again because it's so great.

    https://twitter.com/MShepheard/status/1111167940911656960

    In particular, look down the bottom at the abstentions, which tell you where there may be extra votes to get stuff over the line.

    Yeah that chart isn't great news for the "confirmatory referendum" lot. Customs & Common Market 2.0 looking better than their initial Ayes.
    The question for Monday is whether if options are combined - for example a confirmatory referendum on a deal with a CU - do you build support by bringing together the supporters of both, or lose people by giving them more to object to?
    Yes. A good approach for Monday would be preference votes (AV) for four proposals.

    1. Mrs May's deal
    2. Mrs May's deal plus ref
    3. CU
    4. CU plus ref

    The ERG are not going to be happy that all their avenues are blocked off... There may be trouble ahead....
    They are a small minority and are not going to be happy anyway. Ignorable.

    I think CU plus Ref could get majority support including SNP, LD and TIGs who didn't support CU yesterday.

    I also think Mrs May's deal plus Ref could get majority support, losing some Tory supporters of Mrs May's deal because of Ref but gaining many more Lab, SNP, LD and TIGs who want a Ref.
    The Conservatives might support a CU addition but not a second referendum.
    John Mann has just said on Sky there are 60 to 70 labour mps implacably opposed to a referendum

    If true there will not be a referendum
    I'm no fan of a 2nd ref, but is that correct ?

    Lab seats: 245

    Lab 2nd ref

    Noe (Broke whip) 27
    Aye 198
    Abstentions 20

    So at most 47 ?
  • Idiot. Not a word I use often, but there it is.
    That is consistent with the view of the party membership. He does want to be leader.
  • Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think maybe somebody posted this already but if so here it is again because it's so great.

    https://twitter.com/MShepheard/status/1111167940911656960

    In particular, look down the bottom at the abstentions, which tell you where there may be extra votes to get stuff over the line.

    Yeah that chart isn't great news for the "confirmatory referendum" lot. Customs & Common Market 2.0 looking better than their initial Ayes.
    The question for Monday is whether if options are combined - for example a confirmatory referendum on a deal with a CU - do you build support by bringing together the supporters of both, or lose people by giving them more to object to?
    Yes. A good approach for Monday would be preference votes (AV) for four proposals.

    1. Mrs May's deal
    2. Mrs May's deal plus ref
    3. CU
    4. CU plus ref

    The ERG are not going to be happy that all their avenues are blocked off... There may be trouble ahead....
    They are a small minority and are not going to be happy anyway. Ignorable.

    I think CU plus Ref could get majority support including SNP, LD and TIGs who didn't support CU yesterday.

    I also think Mrs May's deal plus Ref could get majority support, losing some Tory supporters of Mrs May's deal because of Ref but gaining many more Lab, SNP, LD and TIGs who want a Ref.
    The Conservatives might support a CU addition but not a second referendum.
    John Mann has just said on Sky there are 60 to 70 labour mps implacably opposed to a referendum

    If true there will not be a referendum
    Not true. Only 27 Labour MPs voted against a referendum yesterday and another 19 abstained. That's not 60 to 70 implacably opposed.
    I can only pass on his comments. Like everything brexit who knows
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,486

    Idiot. Not a word I use often, but there it is.
    That is consistent with the view of the party membership. He does want to be leader.
    Blue line now between Boris and Raab.

    Who has miscalculated?
  • Idiot. Not a word I use often, but there it is.
    That is consistent with the view of the party membership. He does want to be leader.
    The party certainly has a choice as to whether it wants to become an idiocracy. He and Boris are offering themselves up as leaders.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,167
    edited March 2019

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think maybe somebody posted this already but if so here it is again because it's so great.

    https://twitter.com/MShepheard/status/1111167940911656960

    In particular, look down the bottom at the abstentions, which tell you where there may be extra votes to get stuff over the line.

    Yeah that chart isn't great news for the "confirmatory referendum" lot. Customs & Common Market 2.0 looking better than their initial Ayes.
    The question for Monday is whether if options are combined - for example a confirmatory referendum on a deal with a CU - do you build support by bringing together the supporters of both, or lose people by giving them more to object to?
    Yes. A good approach for Monday would be preference votes (AV) for four proposals.

    1. Mrs May's deal
    2. Mrs May's deal plus ref
    3. CU
    4. CU plus ref

    The ERG are not going to be happy that all their avenues are blocked off... There may be trouble ahead....
    They are a small minority and are not going to be happy anyway. Ignorable.

    I think CU plus Ref could get majority support including SNP, LD and TIGs who didn't support CU yesterday.

    I also think Mrs May's deal plus Ref could get majority support, losing some Tory supporters of Mrs May's deal because of Ref but gaining many more Lab, SNP, LD and TIGs who want a Ref.
    The Conservatives might support a CU addition but not a second referendum.
    Eight Tories already support a second Ref. Combine that with Mrs May's deal and some more would. How many we don't know but need to find out.
    Many more Conservatives supported a CU and it would be easier for others to switch to that IMO.
    Could be. Add a Ref to the CU and you'd get 11 Lds, 11 TIGs and possibly 35 SNPs and possibly lose a few of the 33 Tories who voted for CU.

    EDIT. Move towards Ref on Betfair. Last price placed is 3.2
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Do not bet against Dominic Raab for next Tory leader unless his price shortens very markedly. He's got the hardline sewn up now I'd say.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Can't see a referendum getting majority support, it will be whipped against by the Tories and a chunk of labour are hard no, and if it passed indicative vote I could see a GE being preferred as nuclear option. Tories might quite like a bonfire of the dead wood, and Jeremy would enjoy getting more trots on board
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    isam said:

    isam said:

    If we had a referendum on Gay Marriage and YES won 52-48, three years later when no gay person had married another, and a PM who wa a backer of NO was on the verge of being forced into a 2nd referendum between her deal of "Gay Marriage allowed but churches are allowed to opt out" and "No Gay Marriage allowed at all", would that be fair enough?

    The ERG in this case would be people who wanted Gay Marriage to be considered exactly the same as traditional marriage

    In this example did the strongest gay marriage supporters repeatedly vote against gay marriage, because the proposed law continued to allow straight people to get married?
    No,they voted against gay marriage because it meant that some places could marry heterosexuals while refusing to marry gay people
    They voted against because opponents of gay marriage including the Church had put in a backstop whereby while gay marriage would be legalised in name, gays would only be able to marry people of the opposite gender unless or until the Church agreed an end to the backstop.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536
    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think maybe somebody posted this already but if so here it is again because it's so great.

    https://twitter.com/MShepheard/status/1111167940911656960

    In particular, look down the bottom at the abstentions, which tell you where there may be extra votes to get stuff over the line.

    Yeah that chart isn't great news for the "confirmatory referendum" lot. Customs & Common Market 2.0 looking better than their initial Ayes.
    The question for Monday is whether if options are combined - for example a confirmatory referendum on a deal with a CU - do you build support by bringing together the supporters of both, or lose people by giving them more to object to?
    Yes. A good approach for Monday would be preference votes (AV) for four proposals.

    1. Mrs May's deal
    2. Mrs May's deal plus ref
    3. CU
    4. CU plus ref

    The ERG are not going to be happy that all their avenues are blocked off... There may be trouble ahead....
    They are a small minority and are not going to be happy anyway. Ignorable.

    I think CU plus Ref could get majority support including SNP, LD and TIGs who didn't support CU yesterday.

    I also think Mrs May's deal plus Ref could get majority support, losing some Tory supporters of Mrs May's deal because of Ref but gaining many more Lab, SNP, LD and TIGs who want a Ref.
    The Conservatives might support a CU addition but not a second referendum.
    John Mann has just said on Sky there are 60 to 70 labour mps implacably opposed to a referendum

    If true there will not be a referendum
    I'm no fan of a 2nd ref, but is that correct ?

    Lab seats: 245

    Lab 2nd ref

    Noe (Broke whip) 27
    Aye 198
    Abstentions 20

    So at most 47 ?
    We'd need to go through them name by name to be sure.
  • Manchester United appoint boyhood Liverpool supporter as permanent replacement for Jose Mourinho

    https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/manchester-united-appoint-boyhood-liverpool-16039193
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,879
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think maybe somebody posted this already but if so here it is again because it's so great.

    https://twitter.com/MShepheard/status/1111167940911656960

    In particular, look down the bottom at the abstentions, which tell you where there may be extra votes to get stuff over the line.

    Yeah that chart isn't great news for the "confirmatory referendum" lot. Customs & Common Market 2.0 looking better than their initial Ayes.
    The question for Monday is whether if options are combined - for example a confirmatory referendum on a deal with a CU - do you build support by bringing together the supporters of both, or lose people by giving them more to object to?
    Yes. A good approach for Monday would be preference votes (AV) for four proposals.

    1. Mrs May's deal
    2. Mrs May's deal plus ref
    3. CU
    4. CU plus ref

    The ERG are not going to be happy that all their avenues are blocked off... There may be trouble ahead....
    They are a small minority and are not going to be happy anyway. Ignorable.

    I think CU plus Ref could get majority support including SNP, LD and TIGs who didn't support CU yesterday.

    I also think Mrs May's deal plus Ref could get majority support, losing some Tory supporters of Mrs May's deal because of Ref but gaining many more Lab, SNP, LD and TIGs who want a Ref.
    The Conservatives might support a CU addition but not a second referendum.
    John Mann has just said on Sky there are 60 to 70 labour mps implacably opposed to a referendum

    If true there will not be a referendum
    Not true. Only 27 Labour MPs voted against a referendum yesterday and another 19 abstained. That's not 60 to 70 implacably opposed.
    Lots of Labour MPs who don't want a second referendum voted for it yesterday. (Burgon, Rayner, Gardner, Long-Bailey, Corbyn etc.) They'd probably pull their support if it had an actual chance of happening.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    edited March 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think maybe somebody posted this already but if so here it is again because it's so great.

    https://twitter.com/MShepheard/status/1111167940911656960

    In particular, look down the bottom at the abstentions, which tell you where there may be extra votes to get stuff over the line.

    Yeah that chart isn't great news for the "confirmatory referendum" lot. Customs & Common Market 2.0 looking better than their initial Ayes.
    The question for Monday is whether if options are combined - for example a confirmatory referendum on a deal with a CU - do you build support by bringing together the supporters of both, or lose people by giving them more to object to?
    Yes. A good approach for Monday would be preference votes (AV) for four proposals.

    1. Mrs May's deal
    2. Mrs May's deal plus ref
    3. CU
    4. CU plus ref

    The ERG are not going to be happy that all their avenues are blocked off... There may be trouble ahead....
    They are a small minority and are not going to be happy anyway. Ignorable.

    I think CU plus Ref could get majority support including SNP, LD and TIGs who didn't support CU yesterday.

    I also think Mrs May's deal plus Ref could get majority support, losing some Tory supporters of Mrs May's deal because of Ref but gaining many more Lab, SNP, LD and TIGs who want a Ref.
    The Conservatives might support a CU addition but not a second referendum.
    John Mann has just said on Sky there are 60 to 70 labour mps implacably opposed to a referendum

    If true there will not be a referendum
    I'm no fan of a 2nd ref, but is that correct ?

    Lab seats: 245

    Lab 2nd ref

    Noe (Broke whip) 27
    Aye 198
    Abstentions 20

    So at most 47 ?
    Last night they were sold the fudge of a "confirmatory vote" without it being spelled out what a No vote would entail or if Remain would be an option.

    Expect the 47 Lab opposed to increase when that fudge becomes clear it is a vehicle for Deal v Remain and the route to revoke.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,188

    algarkirk said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Guardian has an ominous quote from a DUP source that Bojo “has done nothing to enhance his reputation for being slippery”.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/the-waugh-zone-thursday-march-28-2019_uk_5c9c8f7be4b072a7f6052f3a?ot8

    The article also suggests expectation that the DUP will fold at the last minute. But also that when people finally see the Withdrawal Bill - drafted but being kept under wraps - it will turn people against the deal.

    And the remarkable little factoid that on the Extension Vote half of the Tory Whips' Office defied their own three-line whip.

    The DUP will not fold. They represent one of the most entrenched and unyielding political tribes in the world. Never surrender.
    Is there anything which is both logically possible and the DUP would vote for? If there isn't (and I have not found anything yet) I think their real intention is to remain.
    Their real intention is to preserve unaltered the current relationship between GB and NI. This their fundamental core belief, something on which they will never compromise. If this means they have to throw Brexit under the bus then that is what they will do.
    That's right.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think maybe somebody posted this already but if so here it is again because it's so great.

    https://twitter.com/MShepheard/status/1111167940911656960

    In particular, look down the bottom at the abstentions, which tell you where there may be extra votes to get stuff over the line.

    Yeah that chart isn't great news for the "confirmatory referendum" lot. Customs & Common Market 2.0 looking better than their initial Ayes.
    The question for Monday is whether if options are combined - for example a confirmatory referendum on a deal with a CU - do you build support by bringing together the supporters of both, or lose people by giving them more to object to?
    Yes. A good approach for Monday would be preference votes (AV) for four proposals.

    1. Mrs May's deal
    2. Mrs May's deal plus ref
    3. CU
    4. CU plus ref

    The ERG are not going to be happy that all their avenues are blocked off... There may be trouble ahead....
    They are a small minority and are not going to be happy anyway. Ignorable.

    I think CU plus Ref could get majority support including SNP, LD and TIGs who didn't support CU yesterday.

    I also think Mrs May's deal plus Ref could get majority support, losing some Tory supporters of Mrs May's deal because of Ref but gaining many more Lab, SNP, LD and TIGs who want a Ref.
    The Conservatives might support a CU addition but not a second referendum.
    Eight Tories already support a second Ref. Combine that with Mrs May's deal and some more would. How many we don't know but need to find out.
    Many more Conservatives supported a CU and it would be easier for others to switch to that IMO.
    Could be. Add a Ref to the CU and you'd get 11 Lds, 11 TIGs and possibly 35 SNPs and possibly lose a few of the 33 Tories who voted for CU.

    EDIT. Move towards Ref on Betfair. Last price placed is 3.2
    Are the Gov't really going to go for a line that only had a grand total of 8 of their own MPs in favour of it in a free vote ?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,167

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think maybe somebody posted this already but if so here it is again because it's so great.

    https://twitter.com/MShepheard/status/1111167940911656960

    In particular, look down the bottom at the abstentions, which tell you where there may be extra votes to get stuff over the line.

    Yeah that chart isn't great news for the "confirmatory referendum" lot. Customs & Common Market 2.0 looking better than their initial Ayes.
    The question for Monday is whether if options are combined - for example a confirmatory referendum on a deal with a CU - do you build support by bringing together the supporters of both, or lose people by giving them more to object to?
    Yes. A good approach for Monday would be preference votes (AV) for four proposals.

    1. Mrs May's deal
    2. Mrs May's deal plus ref
    3. CU
    4. CU plus ref

    The ERG are not going to be happy that all their avenues are blocked off... There may be trouble ahead....
    They are a small minority and are not going to be happy anyway. Ignorable.

    I think CU plus Ref could get majority support including SNP, LD and TIGs who didn't support CU yesterday.

    I also think Mrs May's deal plus Ref could get majority support, losing some Tory supporters of Mrs May's deal because of Ref but gaining many more Lab, SNP, LD and TIGs who want a Ref.
    The Conservatives might support a CU addition but not a second referendum.
    John Mann has just said on Sky there are 60 to 70 labour mps implacably opposed to a referendum

    If true there will not be a referendum
    Not true. Only 27 Labour MPs voted against a referendum yesterday and another 19 abstained. That's not 60 to 70 implacably opposed.
    Maybe a different referendum though, the key issue is whether there's a Remain option.
    Fair point. I think the assumption of most MPs is that Remain would be an option but there was wriggle room.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638

    Do not bet against Dominic Raab for next Tory leader unless his price shortens very markedly. He's got the hardline sewn up now I'd say.

    I think James O'Brien leaving the country would be a big enough win without having to risk money on it
  • Just how do we avoid no deal

    Has anyone a convincing argument how we stop it. The EU are not happy with the UK taking part in their elections but they have no choice in the event of referendum or a GE

    Furthermore, are we really going to get the HOC to consent to the UK taking part in these elections

    There are just 14 days to stop no deal
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746

    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think maybe somebody posted this already but if so here it is again because it's so great.

    https://twitter.com/MShepheard/status/1111167940911656960

    In particular, look down the bottom at the abstentions, which tell you where there may be extra votes to get stuff over the line.

    Yeah that chart isn't great news for the "confirmatory referendum" lot. Customs & Common Market 2.0 looking better than their initial Ayes.
    The question for Monday is whether if options are combined - for example a confirmatory referendum on a deal with a CU - do you build support by bringing together the supporters of both, or lose people by giving them more to object to?
    Yes. A good approach for Monday would be preference votes (AV) for four proposals.

    1. Mrs May's deal
    2. Mrs May's deal plus ref
    3. CU
    4. CU plus ref

    The ERG are not going to be happy that all their avenues are blocked off... There may be trouble ahead....
    They are a small minority and are not going to be happy anyway. Ignorable.

    I think CU plus Ref could get majority support including SNP, LD and TIGs who didn't support CU yesterday.

    I also think Mrs May's deal plus Ref could get majority support, losing some Tory supporters of Mrs May's deal because of Ref but gaining many more Lab, SNP, LD and TIGs who want a Ref.
    The Conservatives might support a CU addition but not a second referendum.
    John Mann has just said on Sky there are 60 to 70 labour mps implacably opposed to a referendum

    If true there will not be a referendum
    I'm no fan of a 2nd ref, but is that correct ?

    Lab seats: 245

    Lab 2nd ref

    Noe (Broke whip) 27
    Aye 198
    Abstentions 20

    So at most 47 ?
    Last night they were sold the fudge of a "confirmatory vote" without it being spelled out what a No vote would entail or if Remain would be an option.

    Expect the 47 Lab opposed to increase when that fudge becomes clear it is a vehicle for Deal v Remain and the route to revoke.
    Did Ma Beckett realy get through her speech without giving that particular game away ? If so impressive obfuscation.
This discussion has been closed.