In parliament there are quite a few people who don't want to see my face any more.
Do you really not want to see it? Do you *really* not want to see it? Do you **really** not want to see it? In that case you'd better get moving and pass this bill...
There was some speculation yesterday that the DUP might simply abstain in MV3. Their statement didn't indicate that but if they did does anyone have a feel for whether enough ERG members have now changed their position? Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.
The weird thing about this is that assuming TMay's main concern is to hang on to her job, which I think is a safe assumption, her goal now becomes preventing parliament from passing her deal.
I think the best way is to let parliament have some more votes about the Customs Union, stall for a couple of weeks so it's too late to do anything else before the deadline except schedule European elections, then ask for an 18-month extension to work through the Customs Union option.
Hancock is just so not up to his present job, let alone PM. I really don't understand the interest in him at all.
He is really lame as Health Secretary, but not much more useless than most of the cabinet.
I would put him one step ahead of the likes of Fox and two ahead of Grayling, roughly around the Leadsom level. But Javid, Gove, Hunt, even Hammond and Rudd are still several steps ahead. I just don't see how he gets in the reckoning.
It's a bit like Raab. The man is supposedly highly intelligent but my goodness, he hides it well.
There was some speculation yesterday that the DUP might simply abstain in MV3. Their statement didn't indicate that but if they did does anyone have a feel for whether enough ERG members have now changed their position? Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.
Why would the DUP abstain and let something they completely and utterly dislike go through...
Hancock is just so not up to his present job, let alone PM. I really don't understand the interest in him at all.
He is really lame as Health Secretary, but not much more useless than most of the cabinet.
I would put him one step ahead of the likes of Fox and two ahead of Grayling, roughly around the Leadsom level. But Javid, Gove, Hunt, even Hammond and Rudd are still several steps ahead. I just don't see how he gets in the reckoning.
It's a bit like Raab. The man is supposedly highly intelligent but my goodness, he hides it well.
There was some speculation yesterday that the DUP might simply abstain in MV3. Their statement didn't indicate that but if they did does anyone have a feel for whether enough ERG members have now changed their position? Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.
Why would the DUP abstain and let something they completely and utterly dislike go through...
Well bribery probably. Also future extortion is dependent upon them retaining the balance of power and the possibility of a GE where they are very unlikely to hit the current sweet spot has increased markedly.
The weird thing about this is that assuming TMay's main concern is to hang on to her job, which I think is a safe assumption, her goal now becomes preventing parliament from passing her deal.
I think the best way is to let parliament have some more votes about the Customs Union, stall for a couple of weeks so it's too late to do anything else before the deadline except schedule European elections, then ask for an 18-month extension to work through the Customs Union option.
She has two days remaining to seize control of events - and you'd think that now her resignation is nailed on in all circumstances (her clinging on for ages isn't realistic now), she would be liberated to move away from her red lines, and champion a compromise solution through to agreement. Her red lines were based on a manifesto that didn't win the election and has significantly been abandoned anyway.
But sadly I fear she as neither the skill nor the imagination.
There was some speculation yesterday that the DUP might simply abstain in MV3. Their statement didn't indicate that but if they did does anyone have a feel for whether enough ERG members have now changed their position? Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.
Why would the DUP abstain and let something they completely and utterly dislike go through...
Well bribery probably. Also future extortion is dependent upon them retaining the balance of power and the possibility of a GE where they are very unlikely to hit the current sweet spot has increased markedly.
There was some speculation yesterday that the DUP might simply abstain in MV3. Their statement didn't indicate that but if they did does anyone have a feel for whether enough ERG members have now changed their position? Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.
Why would the DUP abstain and let something they completely and utterly dislike go through...
Well bribery probably. Also future extortion is dependent upon them retaining the balance of power and the possibility of a GE where they are very unlikely to hit the current sweet spot has increased markedly.
Next to Fianna Fáil, they're the most venial party in Western Europe.
The weird thing about this is that assuming TMay's main concern is to hang on to her job, which I think is a safe assumption, her goal now becomes preventing parliament from passing her deal.
I think the best way is to let parliament have some more votes about the Customs Union, stall for a couple of weeks so it's too late to do anything else before the deadline except schedule European elections, then ask for an 18-month extension to work through the Customs Union option.
Little did they know in March 2019 that Theresa May would go on to become one of longest serving PMs of the C21
As others have mentioned, WA + referendum seems a plausible way forward for many Tories. The paradox is that they'd probably have to get rid of May to achieve that vote on her own deal, on previous form.
I think it goes back to a header from a while back that suggested that the number of MPs who voted against May was a good proxy for how many would back a fairly hard Brexiteer. If that still holds, hard to see how anyone who has not been associated with a fairly hard line stance does not become leader because 100+ MPs coalescing behind a candidate would surely get them through to the second round.
There was some speculation yesterday that the DUP might simply abstain in MV3. Their statement didn't indicate that but if they did does anyone have a feel for whether enough ERG members have now changed their position? Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.
The DUP believed the Tory hard Brexiteers when they said No to Vassalage. Now Johnson, Rees-Mogg and the rest that motley crew have done a volte face, the DUP are left on their own. So the ERG have sold their "principles" in vain. So they might as well go back to them. They have nothing left but betrayal. May's Deal looks more dead than ever from where I'm standing.
Fear not folks, we have Rebecca Long-Bailey coming on Radio 4 to explain everything to us all.
How did she ever get into Parliament? I mean, I know we've got plenty of MPs who are rude, plenty who are stupid, plenty who are lazy , plenty who are arrogant and condescending, plenty who have never lived in the real world or done a day's work and plenty who have no clue what they're talking about. But even Chris Grayling doesn't combine the lot quite so impressively as she does.
There was some speculation yesterday that the DUP might simply abstain in MV3. Their statement didn't indicate that but if they did does anyone have a feel for whether enough ERG members have now changed their position? Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.
I think even with the DUP on board there are over 30 unreconciled Tories. Read the account of Steve Baker addressing the ERG and ask yourself how likely he is to change what we can politely call his mind. He is far from alone.
There was some speculation yesterday that the DUP might simply abstain in MV3. Their statement didn't indicate that but if they did does anyone have a feel for whether enough ERG members have now changed their position? Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.
Why would the DUP abstain and let something they completely and utterly dislike go through...
Well bribery probably. Also future extortion is dependent upon them retaining the balance of power and the possibility of a GE where they are very unlikely to hit the current sweet spot has increased markedly.
Next to Fianna Fáil, they're the most venial party in Western Europe.
It's a problem. I am a Unionist not just for Scotland but also for NI. But boy, do they make loving NI being a part of the UK hard. From their medieval social attitudes, their bigotry and their greed they are just an embarrassment and a lot less British than they like to think they are.
F1: There are none listed currently but there is a category on the Ladbrokes Exchange on Special for the Bahrain Grand Prix. Sometimes in the past these have been worth considering, so I'll be keeping an eye on that. If they're not up pre-practice I'd expect them between FP3 and qualifying.
Just to repeat, I put a tiny sum on Leclerc each way (13, 14 with boost, and a fifth the odds top 3) to 'win' first practice.
On the political front, it's now 1.72 on us holding 2019 Euro elections. This lengthening, from about 1.5, seems likely to be down to the potentially increased chance of May's deal passing, if it actually gets to that stage.
However, I haven't been online much since yesterday evening so I could well have missed something important in that regard.
There was some speculation yesterday that the DUP might simply abstain in MV3. Their statement didn't indicate that but if they did does anyone have a feel for whether enough ERG members have now changed their position? Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.
I think even with the DUP on board there are over 30 unreconciled Tories. Read the account of Steve Baker addressing the ERG and ask yourself how likely he is to change what we can politely call his mind. He is far from alone.
That's the way I see it and finding anything like enough Labour MPs to overcome that is very hard. At the moment it seems that DUP abstention would not be enough and May's deal still fails. We really are in the last chance saloon here.
There was some speculation yesterday that the DUP might simply abstain in MV3. Their statement didn't indicate that but if they did does anyone have a feel for whether enough ERG members have now changed their position? Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.
I think even with the DUP on board there are over 30 unreconciled Tories. Read the account of Steve Baker addressing the ERG and ask yourself how likely he is to change what we can politely call his mind. He is far from alone.
And most of the rest only switched on the assumption that May's Deal will pass. Once that assumption falls way they will go back to their original position.
The weird thing about this is that assuming TMay's main concern is to hang on to her job, which I think is a safe assumption, her goal now becomes preventing parliament from passing her deal.
I don't think it's a safe assumption at all, in fact I think she's entirely over the whole thing and if given a plausible win to allow her to declare "job done" she'd happily give it up in a second.
Fear not folks, we have Rebecca Long-Bailey coming on Radio 4 to explain everything to us all.
How did she ever get into Parliament? I mean, I know we've got plenty of MPs who are rude, plenty who are stupid, plenty who are lazy , plenty who are arrogant and condescending, plenty who have never lived in the real world or done a day's work and plenty who have no clue what they're talking about. But even Chris Grayling doesn't combine the lot quite so impressively as she does.
As someone else said here recently, as soon as possible the DUP should be told to sort about a Norn administration, and in the meantime proposals would be laid before the HoC to extend the current Gay Marriage and Abortion regulations in the rest of the UK to N. Ireland as soon as. If a Norn Administartion was formed within one calendar month no further action would be taken by the HoC, but if it wasn't then the proposals would be proceeded with and arrangements made to hold a Referendum on Re-unification with the rest of Ireland.
There was some speculation yesterday that the DUP might simply abstain in MV3. Their statement didn't indicate that but if they did does anyone have a feel for whether enough ERG members have now changed their position? Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.
I think even with the DUP on board there are over 30 unreconciled Tories. Read the account of Steve Baker addressing the ERG and ask yourself how likely he is to change what we can politely call his mind. He is far from alone.
And most of the rest only switched on the assumption that May's Deal will pass. Once that assumption falls way they will go back to their original position.
Making them look incredibly stupid today - see Rees-Mogg, and probably Boris after a while, too.
There was some speculation yesterday that the DUP might simply abstain in MV3. Their statement didn't indicate that but if they did does anyone have a feel for whether enough ERG members have now changed their position? Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.
I think even with the DUP on board there are over 30 unreconciled Tories. Read the account of Steve Baker addressing the ERG and ask yourself how likely he is to change what we can politely call his mind. He is far from alone.
He's now my second best runner for next PM after John McDonnell. Lidington 3rd.
There was some speculation yesterday that the DUP might simply abstain in MV3. Their statement didn't indicate that but if they did does anyone have a feel for whether enough ERG members have now changed their position? Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.
The DUP believed the Tory hard Brexiteers when they said No to Vassalage. Now Johnson, Rees-Mogg and the rest that motley crew have done a volte face, the DUP are left on their own. So the ERG have sold their "principles" in vain. So they might as well go back to them. They have nothing left but betrayal. May's Deal looks more dead than ever from where I'm standing.
Assuming Bercow let's her bring it back ("I'm sorry but the Prime Minister offering her resignation doesn't change the substance of the deal") it's still going down to a chunky defeat. Now that No Surrender has been declared in Norniron I have to assume that Mogg won't be the only recent reluctant convert now saying he will stick with voting against.
The indicative votes yesterday are also likely to come back, but unless there is a clear and unambiguous support for something that May is willing to do, then we're still wasting our time. No deal remains on the table as the default outcome until the law is changed. Revoke remains on the table as it's mirror image alternative. Any other option is just hot air at this stage with very little time left to bring to life
Good morning. On their indicative vote market, which did ladbrokes pay out on? Most ayes or closest to winning?
Most yes votes. Which was the confirmatory referendum. I suspect the bookmaker did well out of that one.
thanks, and yes I'm sure they did. so on those rules CU could actually have won and they'd still have paid out on deal referendum? that would have caused some argument unless their rules were crystal clear.
F1: There are none listed currently but there is a category on the Ladbrokes Exchange on Special for the Bahrain Grand Prix. Sometimes in the past these have been worth considering, so I'll be keeping an eye on that. If they're not up pre-practice I'd expect them between FP3 and qualifying.
Just to repeat, I put a tiny sum on Leclerc each way (13, 14 with boost, and a fifth the odds top 3) to 'win' first practice....
He might be a better long odds punt for pole. FP1 will be held in much hotter conditions, which won’t suit Ferrari at all, unless they have completely sorted their tyre problems. And if they have, then the pole bet would be a decent one anyway.
Good morning. On their indicative vote market, which did ladbrokes pay out on? Most ayes or closest to winning?
Most yes votes. Which was the confirmatory referendum. I suspect the bookmaker did well out of that one.
thanks, and yes I'm sure they did. so on those rules CU could actually have won and they'd still have paid out on deal referendum? that would have caused some argument unless their rules were crystal clear.
Indeed. I went back to look and it wasn't clear at all from the betting page.
The fact that all the tips on here were for the CU/CM soft options and a second referendum actually got most votes is interesting in itself. Clearly PB'ers underestimated the appetite for Ref2
There was some speculation yesterday that the DUP might simply abstain in MV3. Their statement didn't indicate that but if they did does anyone have a feel for whether enough ERG members have now changed their position? Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.
I think even with the DUP on board there are over 30 unreconciled Tories. Read the account of Steve Baker addressing the ERG and ask yourself how likely he is to change what we can politely call his mind. He is far from alone.
He's now my second best runner for next PM after John McDonnell. Lidington 3rd.
You sure know how to conjure up an appealing vista of the country’s future.
The weird thing about this is that assuming TMay's main concern is to hang on to her job, which I think is a safe assumption, her goal now becomes preventing parliament from passing her deal.
I think the best way is to let parliament have some more votes about the Customs Union, stall for a couple of weeks so it's too late to do anything else before the deadline except schedule European elections, then ask for an 18-month extension to work through the Customs Union option.
Little did they know in March 2019 that Theresa May would go on to become one of longest serving PMs of the C21
When will Theresa May go? That is the question.
Are the newspaper front pages right or wrong? They assume her departure is imminent but after the indicative votes all fell, as @edmundintokyo notes, her pledge to go after her deal is passed is even more open-ended than her prior pledge to retire before the next election, which she later rowed back from, saying she meant the 2022 election and not any snap election she might herself call.
Can the Cabinet force her out? Do they want to? Can they agree the coronation of a successor because it will be argued there is no time for a long, drawn out contest, and unless a caretaker can be agreed, some ministers will be better off waiting? What do backbenchers think? Again there were reports of desk-banging at the 1922.
There was some speculation yesterday that the DUP might simply abstain in MV3. Their statement didn't indicate that but if they did does anyone have a feel for whether enough ERG members have now changed their position? Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.
I think even with the DUP on board there are over 30 unreconciled Tories. Read the account of Steve Baker addressing the ERG and ask yourself how likely he is to change what we can politely call his mind. He is far from alone.
That's the way I see it and finding anything like enough Labour MPs to overcome that is very hard. At the moment it seems that DUP abstention would not be enough and May's deal still fails. We really are in the last chance saloon here.
I’m afraid the bar has closed now, I think. I suspect Britain’s future now can be found among the more successful indicative votes yesterday.
There was some speculation yesterday that the DUP might simply abstain in MV3. Their statement didn't indicate that but if they did does anyone have a feel for whether enough ERG members have now changed their position? Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.
Maybe the DUP would vote for WA + CU plus a commitment for the UK Government not to diverge away from them in market regs + a bung?
That would allow Brexit, and satisfy their voters, whilst keeping NI v.tightly bound to the UK in the longer term too.
So, I could see a situation where the DUP back it and the ERG hardcore don't, which would be rather funny.
There was some speculation yesterday that the DUP might simply abstain in MV3. Their statement didn't indicate that but if they did does anyone have a feel for whether enough ERG members have now changed their position? Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.
The DUP believed the Tory hard Brexiteers when they said No to Vassalage. Now Johnson, Rees-Mogg and the rest that motley crew have done a volte face, the DUP are left on their own. So the ERG have sold their "principles" in vain. So they might as well go back to them. They have nothing left but betrayal. May's Deal looks more dead than ever from where I'm standing.
Assuming Bercow let's her bring it back ("I'm sorry but the Prime Minister offering her resignation doesn't change the substance of the deal") it's still going down to a chunky defeat. Now that No Surrender has been declared in Norniron I have to assume that Mogg won't be the only recent reluctant convert now saying he will stick with voting against.
The indicative votes yesterday are also likely to come back, but unless there is a clear and unambiguous support for something that May is willing to do, then we're still wasting our time. No deal remains on the table as the default outcome until the law is changed. Revoke remains on the table as it's mirror image alternative. Any other option is just hot air at this stage with very little time left to bring to life
Yup - and as I've thought for almost two years now, I think it will come down to which option is least painful for the tories. No-deal or revocation without a referendum guarantees huge damage ; a referendum on May's deal is comparatively uncertain in outcome.
If you ran a bar and the house band was Coldplay, if you ask them to do Anarchy in the UK, don’t expect it to sound like the Sex Pistols. The only way out is to accept their version or convince the rest of the owners to employ Johnny Rotten & Sid Vicious (who didn’t play on the original/is dead, but bear with me), despite them hating the song & punk music generally.
Hancock is just so not up to his present job, let alone PM. I really don't understand the interest in him at all.
He is really lame as Health Secretary, but not much more useless than most of the cabinet.
I would put him one step ahead of the likes of Fox and two ahead of Grayling, roughly around the Leadsom level. But Javid, Gove, Hunt, even Hammond and Rudd are still several steps ahead. I just don't see how he gets in the reckoning.
It's a bit like Raab. The man is supposedly highly intelligent but my goodness, he hides it well.
He's intelligent and a first grade policy manager, but sadly he looks about 17 and has no presence.
There was some speculation yesterday that the DUP might simply abstain in MV3. Their statement didn't indicate that but if they did does anyone have a feel for whether enough ERG members have now changed their position? Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.
I think even with the DUP on board there are over 30 unreconciled Tories. Read the account of Steve Baker addressing the ERG and ask yourself how likely he is to change what we can politely call his mind. He is far from alone.
That's the way I see it and finding anything like enough Labour MPs to overcome that is very hard. At the moment it seems that DUP abstention would not be enough and May's deal still fails. We really are in the last chance saloon here.
I’m afraid the bar has closed now, I think. I suspect Britain’s future now can be found among the more successful indicative votes yesterday.
May's deal +CU seems to me the obvious way forward. Not what I would have chosen but we are getting to the point that any progress in any direction would be welcome.
Edit I also suspect that this is what Bercow is working towards. May's deal +CU= materially different, anything else not so much.
Mr. B, I was pondering that. Mercedes were miles ahead in Australia, but I checked last year's result, and they were then too, but lost Bahrain qualifying to both Ferraris. It's difficult to call.
If you ran a bar and the house band was Coldplay, if you ask them to do Anarchy in the UK, don’t expect it to sound like the Sex Pistols. The only way out is to accept their version or convince the rest of the owners to employ Johnny Rotten & Sid Vicious (who didn’t play on the original/is dead, but bear with me), despite them hating the song & punk music generally.
In particular, look down the bottom at the extensions, which tell you where there may be extra votes to get stuff over the line.
Underlines that if May whips something other than her deal, we get out of this deadlock.
The huge blue blocks for no deal might be fertile fishing grounds, if backbenchers have unrealistic ideas of what no deal entails; in other words, if MPs are voting to block particular deals rather than because -- as will be the case for some -- they see beneficial effects of no deal.
Trouble is that would need Theresa May actually to reach out to her opponents behind her and persuade them, rather than merely parroting her lines of the past two and a half years.
Good morning. On their indicative vote market, which did ladbrokes pay out on? Most ayes or closest to winning?
Most yes votes. Which was the confirmatory referendum. I suspect the bookmaker did well out of that one.
thanks, and yes I'm sure they did. so on those rules CU could actually have won and they'd still have paid out on deal referendum? that would have caused some argument unless their rules were crystal clear.
Indeed. I went back to look and it wasn't clear at all from the betting page.
The fact that all the tips on here were for the CU/CM soft options and a second referendum actually got most votes is interesting in itself. Clearly PB'ers underestimated the appetite for Ref2
Referendum got all the SNP and LDs onside I think assuming remain would be on the ballot. they all abstained on the CU.
Edit. I'd have been backing the CU option but they closed my account last year so that's some money saved!
Hancock would be a great leader of what’s left of the Cameroon wing of the Tory party, but the idea that he could bridge the gap with the ERG ultras is unlikely. The best thing for the Tory party and the rest of us would be to choose a direction and split.
The task for May is simple, amend her deal to account for the customs union and/or a vote and whip that. That would pass the Bercow test and provide a reason to unite both sides of the house. She would lose her ultras, but that is a good thing for her and her successor.
May gets to decide what the Tory party will look like for a generation. Moderate and pragmatic or uncompromising and theological.
Looking at the indicative votes and yesterday, I wonder whether we could come down to a situation where May's withdrawal agreement + customs union is the choice of the more Brexit-ish wings of both the tory and labour parties, and May's deal + referendum might be the choice of the more remainy wings. May would probably have to go for either of these options to be carried forward, though, obviously, and there's not much time to get all this through.
In particular, look down the bottom at the abstentions, which tell you where there may be extra votes to get stuff over the line.
Yeah that chart isn't great news for the "confirmatory referendum" lot. Customs & Common Market 2.0 looking better than their initial Ayes.
The question for Monday is whether if options are combined - for example a confirmatory referendum on a deal with a CU - do you build support by bringing together the supporters of both, or lose people by giving them more to object to?
There was some speculation yesterday that the DUP might simply abstain in MV3. Their statement didn't indicate that but if they did does anyone have a feel for whether enough ERG members have now changed their position? Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.
I think even with the DUP on board there are over 30 unreconciled Tories. Read the account of Steve Baker addressing the ERG and ask yourself how likely he is to change what we can politely call his mind. He is far from alone.
He's now my second best runner for next PM after John McDonnell. Lidington 3rd.
You sure know how to conjure up an appealing vista of the country’s future.
There was some speculation yesterday that the DUP might simply abstain in MV3. Their statement didn't indicate that but if they did does anyone have a feel for whether enough ERG members have now changed their position? Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.
I just think that if the PM genuinely wants to get her deal through, and she recognises she's on the way out regardless (neither of which is a given) she tells the country and the house that Friday's MV3 vote is a confidence one. How many Con MPs vote against then? Almost none, maybe just Ken Clarke. What do the DUP do? I think abstain. How much do TIG fancy an early election? About as much as they fancied by-elections. She still needs some Labour leavers to switch or abstain, but it's her only real shot.
There's the small detail of the EU election to come. What defines whether we're a full member for MEP purposes? Time is running out fast.
The UK is a full member for MEP purposes if it requests and gets an extension. To request and get an extension it has to agree to have the elections. There is no non-full kind of member for MEP purposes.
Hancock would be a great leader of what’s left of the Cameroon wing of the Tory party, but the idea that he could bridge the gap with the ERG ultras is unlikely. The best thing for the Tory party and the rest of us would be to choose a direction and split.
The task for May is simple, amend her deal to account for the customs union and/or a vote and whip that. That would pass the Bercow test and provide a reason to unite both sides of the house. She would lose her ultras, but that is a good thing for her and her successor.
May gets to decide what the Tory party will look like for a generation. Moderate and pragmatic or uncompromising and theological.
It is difficult to see why May should whip for options she doesn’t like and are unpopular in the Conservative Party, simply because she is in Government. You could just as easily insist that Corbyn should whip his MPs for eg. the deal.
At best I think she might have to offer a free vote and see what happens.
There was some speculation yesterday that the DUP might simply abstain in MV3. Their statement didn't indicate that but if they did does anyone have a feel for whether enough ERG members have now changed their position? Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.
I think even with the DUP on board there are over 30 unreconciled Tories. Read the account of Steve Baker addressing the ERG and ask yourself how likely he is to change what we can politely call his mind. He is far from alone.
He's now my second best runner for next PM after John McDonnell. Lidington 3rd.
You sure know how to conjure up an appealing vista of the country’s future.
There was some speculation yesterday that the DUP might simply abstain in MV3. Their statement didn't indicate that but if they did does anyone have a feel for whether enough ERG members have now changed their position? Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.
I just think that if the PM genuinely wants to get her deal through, and she recognises she's on the way out regardless (neither of which is a given) she tells the country and the house that Friday's MV3 vote is a confidence one. How many Con MPs vote against then? Almost none, maybe just Ken Clarke. What do the DUP do? I think abstain. How much do TIG fancy an early election? About as much as they fancied by-elections. She still needs some Labour leavers to switch or abstain, but it's her only real shot.
PS I don't think she will do this.
I didn’t know there was the ability to make any vote a confidence one under the FTPA. Another Cameron triumph.
Hancock would be a great leader of what’s left of the Cameroon wing of the Tory party, but the idea that he could bridge the gap with the ERG ultras is unlikely. The best thing for the Tory party and the rest of us would be to choose a direction and split.
The task for May is simple, amend her deal to account for the customs union and/or a vote and whip that. That would pass the Bercow test and provide a reason to unite both sides of the house. She would lose her ultras, but that is a good thing for her and her successor.
May gets to decide what the Tory party will look like for a generation. Moderate and pragmatic or uncompromising and theological.
It is difficult to see why May should whip for options she doesn’t like and are unpopular in the Conservative Party, simply because she is in Government. You could just as easily insist that Corbyn should whip his MPs for eg. the deal.
At best I think she might have to offer a free vote and see what happens.
It’s called compromise. An old fashioned concept. May whips a CU, gives enough people a reason to support the deal, which thereby passes. She then retires having passed Brexit. We move on.
The Conservative party needs to swallow its pride and bend a bit if it is to get its deal.
Hancock would be a great leader of what’s left of the Cameroon wing of the Tory party, but the idea that he could bridge the gap with the ERG ultras is unlikely. The best thing for the Tory party and the rest of us would be to choose a direction and split.
The task for May is simple, amend her deal to account for the customs union and/or a vote and whip that. That would pass the Bercow test and provide a reason to unite both sides of the house. She would lose her ultras, but that is a good thing for her and her successor.
May gets to decide what the Tory party will look like for a generation. Moderate and pragmatic or uncompromising and theological.
It is difficult to see why May should whip for options she doesn’t like and are unpopular in the Conservative Party, simply because she is in Government. You could just as easily insist that Corbyn should whip his MPs for eg. the deal.
At best I think she might have to offer a free vote and see what happens.
Because the government is supposed to be in office.
It’s called compromise. An old fashioned concept. May whips a CU, gives enough people a reason to support the deal, which thereby passes. She then retires having passed Brexit. We move on.
The risk is that adding a CU into the already toxic brew of the fucking shit deal creates more tory recusants.
There was some speculation yesterday that the DUP might simply abstain in MV3. Their statement didn't indicate that but if they did does anyone have a feel for whether enough ERG members have now changed their position? Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.
I just think that if the PM genuinely wants to get her deal through, and she recognises she's on the way out regardless (neither of which is a given) she tells the country and the house that Friday's MV3 vote is a confidence one. How many Con MPs vote against then? Almost none, maybe just Ken Clarke. What do the DUP do? I think abstain. How much do TIG fancy an early election? About as much as they fancied by-elections. She still needs some Labour leavers to switch or abstain, but it's her only real shot.
PS I don't think she will do this.
If she tried that there would surely be some sort of wrecking amendment attached that states that the vote becomes purely a confidence vote and that the MV3 aspect is neutered, can't see MPs letting her get it through that easily
There was some speculation yesterday that the DUP might simply abstain in MV3. Their statement didn't indicate that but if they did does anyone have a feel for whether enough ERG members have now changed their position? Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.
I just think that if the PM genuinely wants to get her deal through, and she recognises she's on the way out regardless (neither of which is a given) she tells the country and the house that Friday's MV3 vote is a confidence one. How many Con MPs vote against then? Almost none, maybe just Ken Clarke. What do the DUP do? I think abstain. How much do TIG fancy an early election? About as much as they fancied by-elections. She still needs some Labour leavers to switch or abstain, but it's her only real shot.
There was some speculation yesterday that the DUP might simply abstain in MV3. Their statement didn't indicate that but if they did does anyone have a feel for whether enough ERG members have now changed their position? Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.
Why would the DUP abstain and let something they completely and utterly dislike go through...
Well bribery probably. Also future extortion is dependent upon them retaining the balance of power and the possibility of a GE where they are very unlikely to hit the current sweet spot has increased markedly.
Next to Fianna Fáil, they're the most venial party in Western Europe.
It's a problem. I am a Unionist not just for Scotland but also for NI. But boy, do they make loving NI being a part of the UK hard. From their medieval social attitudes, their bigotry and their greed they are just an embarrassment and a lot less British than they like to think they are.
They've been enabled every step of the way by the British state, they may not seem 'British' to Liberal types in Britain but they are a British creation. Until relatively recently (ie we'll within living memory) what you regard as their bigotry was the officially sanctioned policy of the British-sponsored statelet that they ran. It's a bit late to be embarrassed by them now.
Hancock would be a great leader of what’s left of the Cameroon wing of the Tory party, but the idea that he could bridge the gap with the ERG ultras is unlikely. The best thing for the Tory party and the rest of us would be to choose a direction and split.
The task for May is simple, amend her deal to account for the customs union and/or a vote and whip that. That would pass the Bercow test and provide a reason to unite both sides of the house. She would lose her ultras, but that is a good thing for her and her successor.
May gets to decide what the Tory party will look like for a generation. Moderate and pragmatic or uncompromising and theological.
It is difficult to see why May should whip for options she doesn’t like and are unpopular in the Conservative Party, simply because she is in Government. You could just as easily insist that Corbyn should whip his MPs for eg. the deal.
At best I think she might have to offer a free vote and see what happens.
Because the government is supposed to be in office.
..and also because the only other option to a custom's union with her deal might be a referendum on her deal, which she wants even less.
Hancock would be a great leader of what’s left of the Cameroon wing of the Tory party, but the idea that he could bridge the gap with the ERG ultras is unlikely. The best thing for the Tory party and the rest of us would be to choose a direction and split.
The task for May is simple, amend her deal to account for the customs union and/or a vote and whip that. That would pass the Bercow test and provide a reason to unite both sides of the house. She would lose her ultras, but that is a good thing for her and her successor.
May gets to decide what the Tory party will look like for a generation. Moderate and pragmatic or uncompromising and theological.
It is difficult to see why May should whip for options she doesn’t like and are unpopular in the Conservative Party, simply because she is in Government. You could just as easily insist that Corbyn should whip his MPs for eg. the deal.
At best I think she might have to offer a free vote and see what happens.
Because the government is supposed to be in office.
If Parliament is running the show I don’t see why Government ministers should have less freedom in how to vote than anyone else. It’s one thing for them not to be whipped against something with which they disagree (aka free vote) but realistically they can’t be whipped for it.
It’s called compromise. An old fashioned concept. May whips a CU, gives enough people a reason to support the deal, which thereby passes. She then retires having passed Brexit. We move on.
The risk is that adding a CU into the already toxic brew of the fucking shit deal creates more tory recusants.
The key to resolving this however is gaining opposition support to outweigh the Tory no surrender brigade. Any option that attracts significant opposition support can afford to lose some more Tories.
In particular, look down the bottom at the extensions, which tell you where there may be extra votes to get stuff over the line.
Underlines that if May whips something other than her deal, we get out of this deadlock.
She has done this once, in favour of the Brady amendment, which passed. I don't think she will do it again. We need a new Prime Minister, one who will leads a government for either a Customs Union or a second referendum. Somehow this PM needs to be the leader of the Conservative Party.
Thank you. So if we hold the EU elections and eventually leave, the MEPs automatically resign? Why then, are the EU so fussed?
They're not fussed, they're pretty much cool with it. There's a minor downside that if the UK has left before the next elections everyone gets a few more seats, but it's not a lot as most of them are being held back for new EU entrants rather than redistributed. The idea that the elections made things impossible was mainly pushed by people on the British side who didn't want an extension, and wanted people to think that an extension was procedurally difficult.
But what they're worried about is that the UK doesn't hold the elections because it plans to leave, then fails to get its shit together and actually leave, and they end up with a parliament that doesn't have all the MEPs it's supposed to have, and arguably isn't legitimate. TMay tried to weaponize this possibility by selecting an (extended) exit date that was after the scheduled date of the elections, so she could say to MPs that they *had* to pass her deal, because a further extension was prevented by the lack of UK MEPs. But the EU understandably decided that if she wanted to play chicken with her parliament they weren't going to let her do it with theirs, and insisted on either an early exit date (April 12th) or a late one well past the elections, and a proper commitment to hold them.
It’s called compromise. An old fashioned concept. May whips a CU, gives enough people a reason to support the deal, which thereby passes. She then retires having passed Brexit. We move on.
The risk is that adding a CU into the already toxic brew of the fucking shit deal creates more tory recusants.
The key to resolving this however is gaining opposition support to outweigh the Tory no surrender brigade. Any option that attracts significant opposition support can afford to lose some more Tories.
Why didn’t the SNP or LibDems support the CU option?
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_MauX8r7eU
Last time out May lost by 149. 10 abstentions brings the margin of defeat down to 139. That means 70 switchers. That seems a lot.
I think the best way is to let parliament have some more votes about the Customs Union, stall for a couple of weeks so it's too late to do anything else before the deadline except schedule European elections, then ask for an 18-month extension to work through the Customs Union option.
It's a bit like Raab. The man is supposedly highly intelligent but my goodness, he hides it well.
It's a bit like Raab. The man is supposedly highly intelligent but my goodness, he hides it well.
But sadly I fear she as neither the skill nor the imagination.
https://youtu.be/jUTH7TDqp48
The question is who is that candidate.
He effectively decided to stop being in the Cabinet for no reason.
This was clearly in the national interest.
https://twitter.com/EliotWilson2/status/1111171200791863296
Just to repeat, I put a tiny sum on Leclerc each way (13, 14 with boost, and a fifth the odds top 3) to 'win' first practice.
On the political front, it's now 1.72 on us holding 2019 Euro elections. This lengthening, from about 1.5, seems likely to be down to the potentially increased chance of May's deal passing, if it actually gets to that stage.
However, I haven't been online much since yesterday evening so I could well have missed something important in that regard.
Utterly thankless task.
If a Norn Administartion was formed within one calendar month no further action would be taken by the HoC, but if it wasn't then the proposals would be proceeded with and arrangements made to hold a Referendum on Re-unification with the rest of Ireland.
https://twitter.com/MShepheard/status/1111167940911656960
In particular, look down the bottom at the abstentions, which tell you where there may be extra votes to get stuff over the line.
The indicative votes yesterday are also likely to come back, but unless there is a clear and unambiguous support for something that May is willing to do, then we're still wasting our time. No deal remains on the table as the default outcome until the law is changed. Revoke remains on the table as it's mirror image alternative. Any other option is just hot air at this stage with very little time left to bring to life
"Hancock's Half Hour" - A Classic Comedy Returns
FP1 will be held in much hotter conditions, which won’t suit Ferrari at all, unless they have completely sorted their tyre problems. And if they have, then the pole bet would be a decent one anyway.
The fact that all the tips on here were for the CU/CM soft options and a second referendum actually got most votes is interesting in itself. Clearly PB'ers underestimated the appetite for Ref2
Are the newspaper front pages right or wrong? They assume her departure is imminent but after the indicative votes all fell, as @edmundintokyo notes, her pledge to go after her deal is passed is even more open-ended than her prior pledge to retire before the next election, which she later rowed back from, saying she meant the 2022 election and not any snap election she might herself call.
Can the Cabinet force her out? Do they want to? Can they agree the coronation of a successor because it will be argued there is no time for a long, drawn out contest, and unless a caretaker can be agreed, some ministers will be better off waiting? What do backbenchers think? Again there were reports of desk-banging at the 1922.
They fall for it every time.
That would allow Brexit, and satisfy their voters, whilst keeping NI v.tightly bound to the UK in the longer term too.
So, I could see a situation where the DUP back it and the ERG hardcore don't, which would be rather funny.
I'm not looking to back him.
Edit I also suspect that this is what Bercow is working towards. May's deal +CU= materially different, anything else not so much.
Trouble is that would need Theresa May actually to reach out to her opponents behind her and persuade them, rather than merely parroting her lines of the past two and a half years.
Edit. I'd have been backing the CU option but they closed my account last year so that's some money saved!
The task for May is simple, amend her deal to account for the customs union and/or a vote and whip that. That would pass the Bercow test and provide a reason to unite both sides of the house. She would lose her ultras, but that is a good thing for her and her successor.
May gets to decide what the Tory party will look like for a generation. Moderate and pragmatic or uncompromising and theological.
Part of the secret of bringing the ERG on board was to give them honourable cover to row back. Not so easy if we then vilify them for doing so.
PS I don't think she will do this.
At best I think she might have to offer a free vote and see what happens.
The Conservative party needs to swallow its pride and bend a bit if it is to get its deal.
Thank you. So if we hold the EU elections and eventually leave, the MEPs automatically resign? Why then, are the EU so fussed?
I don't know if this can happen.
But what they're worried about is that the UK doesn't hold the elections because it plans to leave, then fails to get its shit together and actually leave, and they end up with a parliament that doesn't have all the MEPs it's supposed to have, and arguably isn't legitimate. TMay tried to weaponize this possibility by selecting an (extended) exit date that was after the scheduled date of the elections, so she could say to MPs that they *had* to pass her deal, because a further extension was prevented by the lack of UK MEPs. But the EU understandably decided that if she wanted to play chicken with her parliament they weren't going to let her do it with theirs, and insisted on either an early exit date (April 12th) or a late one well past the elections, and a proper commitment to hold them.