politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With a CON leadership contest perhaps imminent new Ipsos-MORI

Stereotomy said:

Stereotomy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

I noticed this too:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1110883371276738562

Thinks she can get the deal through?

Demob happy?

Yeah, she's quitting tonight.

Are we sure? Setting up expectations of a resignation announcement then actually saying "nothing has changed" would be a very Theresa May thing to do

Or making a cast-iron guarantee to resign by 2030 at the very latest.

If you'll allow me a split infinitve: "...a cast-iron guarantee to probably resign by 2030 at the very latest."

FrancisUrquhart said:

IanB2 said:

timmo said:

Im hearing some Tory MPs being allowed home from the commons tonight before the vote..the whips are suggesting to certain individuals that they have pressing engagements so they can get out of being whipped on the Art 50 extension vote..

The A50 vote will go through and if the Gvt can get Brexiters to go home before it, so much the better.

The only way I can make sense of the betting patterns is if there is a filibuster attempt lined up for the Lords, presumably tomorrow.

Meanwhile we have a good body of MPs determined to turn the Letwin process into chaos, both major parties struggling with whether and how to try to whip their members, and everyone else apparently only going to vote 'yes' to their favourite option. It will be a miracle if parliament emerges better regarded than it is right now.

Meanwhile Labour Shadow Business Minister Pidcock is on BBC PL and I am wondering whether there is any bottom to Labour's barrel.

The current government has some right idiots, but you take a look at the other team and think you are having a giraffe. Regardless of politics, I genuinely not sure how they would cope trying to keep on top of the day to day aspects of running the country.

The likes of Gove could start an argument in an empty lift and is constantly plotting, but I don't think people doubt he can actually run the day to day operation of a government department.

They wouldn't have to. Seumas Milne would be running things.

Endillion said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1110883246756298752

HYFUD will be very upset that his beloved Boris is not popular with conservative voters

What are you talking about? 90% of respondents had an opinion on him, level with Theresa May and more than any other candidate. Might as well give him the job now.

He's in joint first place for "agree", AND ahead of Corbyn. Can't lose, really.

Stereotomy said:

Stereotomy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

I noticed this too:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1110883371276738562

Thinks she can get the deal through?

Demob happy?

Yeah, she's quitting tonight.

Are we sure? Setting up expectations of a resignation announcement then actually saying "nothing has changed" would be a very Theresa May thing to do

Or making a cast-iron guarantee to resign by 2030 at the very latest.

In the spirit of compromise, having listened to colleagues, she is prepared to go in December 2029.

RobD said:

So what are the odds all the proposals get voted down. That’d be a laugh.

IIUC that's basically what's expected, but then they're coming back with a different voting system???

AlastairMeeks said:

TOPPING said:

RochdalePioneers said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

I noticed this too:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1110883371276738562

Thinks she can get the deal through?

Demob happy?

Yeah, she's quitting tonight.

This. With the concluding missive "fuck the lot of you" as she walks from the '22 noisly farting.

At least Major had the style to say "I lost. I quit. See ya" and then go to the cricket where he could sit there grinning at the cameras through his shades.

She's probably relaxed because the Commons took back control and guess what? Even (k)nobs like JRM and our very own @******_****** realise that when you get down and dirty, which is where we are now, her deal is the only game in town.

None of the nearly 40 Conservative MPs who I identified last week as irreconcilables have yet shown any sign that they are now reconcilable. Indeed at least one new one, Suella Braverman, has added herself to that list.

Plus, the DUP have been uncharacteristically inflexible.

RobD said:

So what are the odds all the proposals get voted down. That’d be a laugh.

I assume they'll continue with whichever option is the least unpopular, even if it was not supported by a majority of MPs.

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TOPPING said:

RochdalePioneers said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

I noticed this too:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1110883371276738562

Thinks she can get the deal through?

Demob happy?

Yeah, she's quitting tonight.

This. With the concluding missive "fuck the lot of you" as she walks from the '22 noisly farting.

At least Major had the style to say "I lost. I quit. See ya" and then go to the cricket where he could sit there grinning at the cameras through his shades.

She's probably relaxed because the Commons took back control and guess what? Even (k)nobs like JRM and our very own @******_****** realise that when you get down and dirty, which is where we are now, her deal is the only game in town.

None of the nearly 40 Conservative MPs who I identified last week as irreconcilables have yet shown any sign that they are now reconcilable. Indeed at least one new one, Suella Braverman, has added herself to that list.

I think Henry Smith has now become a traitor.

Thanks - I'll create a special list for him.

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

I noticed this too:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1110883371276738562

Thinks she can get the deal through?

Demob happy?

Yeah, she's quitting tonight.

I appreciate your usual jovial tone, TSE, but it is hardly inconceivable that May leaves as head of the Conservative party with immediate effect - currently 24/1.

I think she might resign as PM and hand over as PM to someone else but remain as Tory leader for the next few months whilst a new leader is elected.

How would a new PM be selected in these circumstances?

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Stereotomy said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Benpointer said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1110840468877832192

This is something that anyone who actually pays attention has known for weeks if not months. Going forward the Speaker should disallow any amendment which does not accept this point.

This does not mean we can't have Norway, Norway+, Canada, Corbyn's preferred version or any other final arrangement. It just means that for them as the next step after Brexit to happen the WA has to pass.

I beg to differ:

What I accept is that...
"You WILL NOT, repeat NOT, be able to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement during an the current agreed extension."

But a longer extension? Who knows... I think the EU would be very willing to re-negotiate if we extended by a year with a committed purpose. (I'm not saying that's going to happen though.)

What Bercow should do is strike off the true unicorns like Malthouse - the EU will not agree to drop the backstop from the current deal.

No, Richard T is right on this - look at the Peter Foster tweets.

Other than Malthouse and the unilateral backstop exit option, do any of the options actually require a renegotiation of the WA?

Remember that Labour objects to any splitting of the WA and PD. Which is not without merit in some respects, though I think at some point you have to.

The problem for Labour is that once the WA is passed, the PD is back in the hands of the government who actually attend the negotiations. I shall repeat my suggestion from a couple of weeks ago, that the transition period after withdrawal should be extended to the end of 2022, by which time there has to be a GE.

Stereotomy said:

AndyJS said:

RobD said:

So what are the odds all the proposals get voted down. That’d be a laugh.

I assume they'll continue with whichever option is the least unpopular, even if it was not supported by a majority of MPs.

For some reason a lot of people here are assuming that even if options come much closer to a majority than May's deal, they'll be eliminated and May's deal will be the last one standing. I'm not sure why.

In order to enact any of the proposals May's deal must be ratified.

anothernick said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

I noticed this too:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1110883371276738562

Thinks she can get the deal through?

Demob happy?

Yeah, she's quitting tonight.

I appreciate your usual jovial tone, TSE, but it is hardly inconceivable that May leaves as head of the Conservative party with immediate effect - currently 24/1.

I think she might resign as PM and hand over as PM to someone else but remain as Tory leader for the next few months whilst a new leader is elected.

How would a new PM be selected in these circumstances?

Theresa May tells Her Majesty to call for Jeremy Hunt or David Lidington.

Or maybe David Gauke.

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1110883246756298752

They've worked out that he's a disgraced sack of shit and amoral sociopathic snake?

Evidently not impressed by Raab's grasp of geography, either.

Stereotomy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stereotomy said:

AndyJS said:

RobD said:

So what are the odds all the proposals get voted down. That’d be a laugh.

I assume they'll continue with whichever option is the least unpopular, even if it was not supported by a majority of MPs.

For some reason a lot of people here are assuming that even if options come much closer to a majority than May's deal, they'll be eliminated and May's deal will be the last one standing. I'm not sure why.

In order to enact any of the proposals May's deal must be ratified.

May's deal includes the PD, right? I'd have thought some of the proposals would mean having to vote through the WA separately then seek modifications to the PD

Modifications to the bit of paper the EU can instantly bin? I’m sure they’ll be all for that.

Stereotomy said:

Stereotomy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stereotomy said:

AndyJS said:

RobD said:

So what are the odds all the proposals get voted down. That’d be a laugh.

I assume they'll continue with whichever option is the least unpopular, even if it was not supported by a majority of MPs.

For some reason a lot of people here are assuming that even if options come much closer to a majority than May's deal, they'll be eliminated and May's deal will be the last one standing. I'm not sure why.

In order to enact any of the proposals May's deal must be ratified.

May's deal includes the PD, right? I'd have thought some of the proposals would mean having to vote through the WA separately then seek modifications to the PD

Also the proposals to leave with no deal or revoke don't require May's deal to be ratified.

Aren’t those two predicted to lose by the biggest margin?

RobD said:

Stereotomy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stereotomy said:

AndyJS said:

RobD said:

So what are the odds all the proposals get voted down. That’d be a laugh.

I assume they'll continue with whichever option is the least unpopular, even if it was not supported by a majority of MPs.

For some reason a lot of people here are assuming that even if options come much closer to a majority than May's deal, they'll be eliminated and May's deal will be the last one standing. I'm not sure why.

In order to enact any of the proposals May's deal must be ratified.

May's deal includes the PD, right? I'd have thought some of the proposals would mean having to vote through the WA separately then seek modifications to the PD

Modifications to the bit of paper the EU can instantly bin? I’m sure they’ll be all for that.

The UK Government could instantly bin it too.

Especially considering when May goes a new PM isn't bound by her non binding pledges

stodge said:

Afternoon all

So in spite of having "taken back control", we know nothing that happens today matters. None of the votes mean very much and nothing will change except we will be a day further down the road to No Deal.

We have still, as the only games in town, leaving with an agreed WA on 22/5, leaving without an agreed WA on 12/4 or revocation. When Ken Clarke, who seems to know his onions, talked about revocation the other day, he didn't say anything about stopping Brexit. What he implied was that as the current negotiations have floundered, we should cancel and re-instigate A50 after the EU elections and after a suitable time for reflection.

Now. that could include a GE or it may not - I suppose if it did and a Party won a majority on a particular plan (Norway, Canada Lite, Andorra Heavy or whatever) that would be a mandated position to file for A50 again and re-commence negotiation. At least the EU would be clear where the UK stood and it might well be the second round of negotiations would proceed far more smoothly than the first.

I'd rather Revoke, sort out exactly what we want and then re-apply A50 on a united and coherent position than either run down the clock with no WA or support what (despite the claims of the May apologists) is a flawed WA.

The problem is the Conservatives are terrified their voter base will not take kindly to revocation claiming (via the Mail and Express) it's a betrayal of the sacred 23/6/16 Referendum. Maybe but there comes a point when, whether they like it or not, parties can decide to act in the national interest or their own interest and if acting in the national interest is contrary to their own interest, so be it.

I well remember the siren calls from Conservatives for taxes to be cut in the run up to the 1997 election but Clarke refused and in so doing may have contributed to Blair's landslide but he bequeathed a sound economic position to Brown. Sometimes the best for the country isn't the best for your Party and you have to take the hit in the national interest.

This is, I am afraid, the biggest unicorn of them all. If we revoke there is no way on earth Parliament will ever let us invoke again.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Or maybe David Gauke.

Or Mheresa Tay, a hitherto reclusive Conservative MP known for her striking moustache

TOPPING said:

RochdalePioneers said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

I noticed this too:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1110883371276738562

Thinks she can get the deal through?

Demob happy?

Yeah, she's quitting tonight.

This. With the concluding missive "fuck the lot of you" as she walks from the '22 noisly farting.

At least Major had the style to say "I lost. I quit. See ya" and then go to the cricket where he could sit there grinning at the cameras through his shades.

She's probably relaxed because the Commons took back control and guess what? Even (k)nobs like JRM and our very own @******_****** realise that when you get down and dirty, which is where we are now, her deal is the only game in town.

Find me a single post Topping (a single one) I made going back to the Chequers Deal last year when I didn’t support May’s Deal.

AlastairMeeks said:

This doesn't sound like a change of position to me:

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1110861901792243712

One would expect this MEP to be particularly well-placed to know the UK Parliamentary leadership's thinking.

It's all falling into place for May.

Andrew said:

Just a deal yes/no I think, with the consequences of no left down to parliament (probably yet another extension).

May would surely go for that if Labour was up for it.

She most certainly would. She would luv it.

For me, Kyle Wilson should stay on the bench at this point. Should be brought on only if and when the most favoured PD is identified (May, Norway, 2.0, whatever it is) and should be used in a striker role, i.e. as an amendment to get it over the line and in the back of the net.

The confirmatory REF2 lock is process and should not be considered alongside what are outcomes. It is illogical to do that and it further messes up what is already a messed up exercise.

https://twitter.com/ffsake_/status/1110890890124582912?s=21

God I hate these poshos who pretend to be ordinary men of the people.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/ffsake_/status/1110890890124582912?s=21

God I hate these poshos who pretend to be ordinary men of the people.

Technically it isn't his family castle, it is his wifes fathers, no? Like Dave, he married into the landed gentry.

BREAKING: looks like Parliament is heading for a Friday sitting

Richard_Tyndall said:

stodge said:

Afternoon all

So in spite of having "taken back control", we know nothing that happens today matters. None of the votes mean very much and nothing will change except we will be a day further down the road to No Deal.

We have still, as the only games in town, leaving with an agreed WA on 22/5, leaving without an agreed WA on 12/4 or revocation. When Ken Clarke, who seems to know his onions, talked about revocation the other day, he didn't say anything about stopping Brexit. What he implied was that as the current negotiations have floundered, we should cancel and re-instigate A50 after the EU elections and after a suitable time for reflection.

Now. that could include a GE or it may not - I suppose if it did and a Party won a majority on a particular plan (Norway, Canada Lite, Andorra Heavy or whatever) that would be a mandated position to file for A50 again and re-commence negotiation. At least the EU would be clear where the UK stood and it might well be the second round of negotiations would proceed far more smoothly than the first.

I'd rather Revoke, sort out exactly what we want and then re-apply A50 on a united and coherent position than either run down the clock with no WA or support what (despite the claims of the May apologists) is a flawed WA.

The problem is the Conservatives are terrified their voter base will not take kindly to revocation claiming (via the Mail and Express) it's a betrayal of the sacred 23/6/16 Referendum. Maybe but there comes a point when, whether they like it or not, parties can decide to act in the national interest or their own interest and if acting in the national interest is contrary to their own interest, so be it.

I well remember the siren calls from Conservatives for taxes to be cut in the run up to the 1997 election but Clarke refused and in so doing may have contributed to Blair's landslide but he bequeathed a sound economic position to Brown. Sometimes the best for the country isn't the best for your Party and you have to take the hit in the national interest.

This is, I am afraid, the biggest unicorn of them all. If we revoke there is no way on earth Parliament will ever let us invoke again.

And they'll be in tune with most of the people, who won't want to get on this horror train ride again for at least a generation.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/ffsake_/status/1110890890124582912?s=21

God I hate these poshos who pretend to be ordinary men of the people.

Does Dominic Cummings have an actual job between referendum campaigns?

Richard_Tyndall said:

This is, I am afraid, the biggest unicorn of them all. If we revoke there is no way on earth Parliament will ever let us invoke again.

Are you the same Richard Tyndall who predicts that if we revoke, a majority government committed to Brexit would get elected in short order? There seems to be a contradiction...

Stereotomy said:

AndyJS said:

RobD said:

So what are the odds all the proposals get voted down. That’d be a laugh.

I assume they'll continue with whichever option is the least unpopular, even if it was not supported by a majority of MPs.

For some reason a lot of people here are assuming that even if options come much closer to a majority than May's deal, they'll be eliminated and May's deal will be the last one standing. I'm not sure why.

My take is that the government is banking on this afternoon being chaos (helped along by the antics of a lot on their own side) and that all the options may have more against than for. Then they pop up with MV3 on Friday, pre-empting the planned 'Letwin: the sequel' on Monday.

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1110893257733611528

What does Beckett's Second Referendum Option say?

When will Bercow announce which amendments will be voted on?

Gordon Taylor is set to announce he is standing down as chief executive of the Professional Footballers' Association after 38 years in the role.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/47691299

Casino_Royale said:

TOPPING said:

RochdalePioneers said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

I noticed this too:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1110883371276738562

Thinks she can get the deal through?

Demob happy?

Yeah, she's quitting tonight.

This. With the concluding missive "fuck the lot of you" as she walks from the '22 noisly farting.

At least Major had the style to say "I lost. I quit. See ya" and then go to the cricket where he could sit there grinning at the cameras through his shades.

She's probably relaxed because the Commons took back control and guess what? Even (k)nobs like JRM and our very own @******_****** realise that when you get down and dirty, which is where we are now, her deal is the only game in town.

Find me a single post Topping (a single one) I made going back to the Chequers Deal last year when I didn’t support May’s Deal.

Where in that post did I say that you ever didn't support the deal.

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1110893257733611528

What does Beckett's Second Referendum Option say?

That any deal agreed by the Commons has to be approved by the people.

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmagenda/OP190327.pdf

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1110893257733611528

What does Beckett's Second Referendum Option say?

Just says "put deal to vote" does not say what else "Remain"/No Deal/Free Unicorns" is also on the ballot paper - which is why Corbyn can support it.

HYUFD said:

Also a good poll for Javid as he is the only Tory leadership contender with higher net favourable ratings than May

Glaring paucity of talent on show when these absolute donkey losers are the top contenders.

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1110893257733611528

What does Beckett's Second Referendum Option say?

That any deal agreed by the Commons has to be approved by the people.

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmagenda/OP190327.pdf

So parliament is sovereign, except when it derogates authority to the people, unless it doesn't like the result, in which case it picks back up authority in order to rederogate it back to the people.

Have I understood that all correctly ?

AlastairMeeks said:

This doesn't sound like a change of position to me:

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1110861901792243712

One would expect this MEP to be particularly well-placed to know the UK Parliamentary leadership's thinking.

sex chez Dodd must be very monotonous if they never change position

RochdalePioneers said:

Indicative votes my anus - they're being whipped.

So, with the DUP still in No Surrender mode and cowardly custards like Mogg only willing to vote for it if the DUP will, that still has May's deal stone cold dead. Which leaves revoke or no deal. Regardless of the pantomime being acted out this afternoon.

Didn’t Mogg say he’d vote for it?

FrancisUrquhart said:

John Cleese: Netflix never returned my calls after comedy pitch

Monty Python star criticises streaming service for rejecting his ideas – and says ITV pitch was turned down for being too intelligent

https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/mar/27/john-cleese-netflix-never-returned-my-calls-after-comedy-pitch

Perhaps they weren't funny....

guaranteed they wern't funny for sure

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Michael Gove's figures are appalling. He's well known and the public are clear in their minds that he's not Prime Ministerial.

He is not even human

Us Tories are a bit like that.

Alien grammar as well.

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Indicative votes my anus - they're being whipped.

So, with the DUP still in No Surrender mode and cowardly custards like Mogg only willing to vote for it if the DUP will, that still has May's deal stone cold dead. Which leaves revoke or no deal. Regardless of the pantomime being acted out this afternoon.

Didn’t Mogg say he’d vote for it?

He chickened out after the abuse he received to saying he'd back the deal if the DUP backed it.

He probably shouldn’t have got that twitter account.

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1110883246756298752

Tory voters see Jeremy Hunt as PM in waiting.

Are they all Gaga

malcolmg said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

John Cleese: Netflix never returned my calls after comedy pitch

Monty Python star criticises streaming service for rejecting his ideas – and says ITV pitch was turned down for being too intelligent

https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/mar/27/john-cleese-netflix-never-returned-my-calls-after-comedy-pitch

Perhaps they weren't funny....

guaranteed they wern't funny for sure

It is amazing to think he is the same guy involved in some of the most iconic comedy of the past.

IanB2 said:

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Michael Gove's figures are appalling. He's well known and the public are clear in their minds that he's not Prime Ministerial.

He is not even human

Us Tories are a bit like that.

Alien grammar as well.

We’re just generally weird.

On the earlier subject of 'jobs worth' and people implementing rules regardless of circumstances - Back in January we got a parking ticket. We didn't know until we got the follow up because it had obviously blown away or been nicked.

Anyway we had paid for the parking but the voice recognition software had mistaken an F for an S on our registration so there was a simple provable explanation. The penalty has been waived.

However the letter says 'I should point out that I shall be unable to cancel and further Notices incurred in similar circumstances'. I was livid by the arrogance of this comment. We had paid and could prove it and it wasn't our mistake. You damn well will cancel future tickets if it happens again!

I was told if it happens again it will not be cancelled and I would have to go thru' the appeals process which presumably I would win. What a pointless exercise.

What is wrong with these people? What is the point in penalising people who have obeyed the rules?

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

TOPPING said:

RochdalePioneers said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

I noticed this too:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1110883371276738562

Thinks she can get the deal through?

Demob happy?

Yeah, she's quitting tonight.

This. With the concluding missive "fuck the lot of you" as she walks from the '22 noisly farting.

At least Major had the style to say "I lost. I quit. See ya" and then go to the cricket where he could sit there grinning at the cameras through his shades.

She's probably relaxed because the Commons took back control and guess what? Even (k)nobs like JRM and our very own @******_****** realise that when you get down and dirty, which is where we are now, her deal is the only game in town.

Find me a single post Topping (a single one) I made going back to the Chequers Deal last year when I didn’t support May’s Deal.

Where in that post did I say that you ever didn't support the deal.

It’s perfectly obvious you were referring to me.

Own it.

CarlottaVance said:

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

RoyalBlue said:

When will Bercow announce which amendments will be voted on?

If the Business Motion passes - vote at 3pm.

Reckon it'll be a lot later than that. Remember that the ERG wreckers will surely push their whole batch of procedural amendments to division, 15 minutes each time.

https://twitter.com/ParlyApp/status/1110893370560471040

Yes, but once the debate on the procedural motion concludes, all the amendments (go look at how many there are) need to be decided, then the main motion needs to be decided.

So what is the SNP's price for supporting the now imminent and inevitable Labour minority government? I reckon Indyref2 and Defence Secretary to nobble Trident which is a price Corbo will happily pay.

We really have plumbed new lows in the self-awareness stakes when Casino Royale is accusing other posters of being pompous and rude.

Funny old world.

This can be read two ways but I think it means that Labour wouldn't have a referendum... rather having one on no brexit.

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1110898537003397120