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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With a CON leadership contest perhaps imminent new Ipsos-MORI poll has good and bad news for Johnson
Above is a chart just issued by Ipsos Mori on its latest polling on which of a number of leading politicians appear “Prime Ministerial”. Theresa May, clearly, gets a home advantage because she is the incumbent but Corbyn will not be happy with his numbers which are the worst of all in those who were polled.
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First!
Like who knows what, later!?0 -
Not fair! That was my first.0
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Will no one think of the people who have money on Lidington at great odds?0
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Third. Like the 3rd best looking unicorn later.
Or even fourth.0 -
The massive petition and massive march seems really to have spooked Leavers. It may not change things now but it raises the stakes hugely for how things turn out. Memories of the Iraq protests.0
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Michael Gove's figures are appalling. He's well known and the public are clear in their minds that he's not Prime Ministerial.
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In a FPTnP election Boris would be the worst possible choice.0
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That handily reduces the list of options considerably.CarlottaVance said:0 -
For one glorious moment before I read the header I'd forgotten that Boris had been Foreign Secretary.
Lucky nothing was happening during that time or we'd be in a real mess.....0 -
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Yeah, here's another Conservative MP who quit after an Islamophobia scandal: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/11/david-cameron-apologises-after-saying-ex-imam-supported-islamic-stateIshmael_Z said:
2. Yes, there are all sorts of nasties in the conservative party, like the anti-semitic ex MP Aidan Burley. Do you see that word "ex?" In Labour, he'd be contending for the party leadership. We handle things differently.
It took him a bit longer, though...
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He's like Dr. Fell.AlastairMeeks said:Michael Gove's figures are appalling. He's well known and the public are clear in their minds that he's not Prime Ministerial.
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Here’s the thing: he is, but he’s also totally untrustworthy.AlastairMeeks said:Michael Gove's figures are appalling. He's well known and the public are clear in their minds that he's not Prime Ministerial.
I think he knows this but he also just can’t help himself.0 -
Quick question: Will all 16 proposals be put to MPs this afternoon or will Bercow select the final list?0
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The Government needs to show some backbone on Brexit. Sadly it did not do so during these negotiations, (although there are understandably different views in the Tory Party and reasons for doing it the way so far).
No deal - with proper preparation - would have worked very well from tomorrow, which is the date we promised the electorate.
However, we are probably going to have to do the best we can with the "deal" and sort the rest of it out. The Commons are likely to stop the whole thing otherwise, and the Government clearly hasn't got the bottle to run down the clock - which it should.0 -
Bercow will choose them, I think. But presumably in consultation with Letwin and the other proposers of the original motion.Benpointer said:Quick question: Will all 16 proposals be put to MPs this afternoon or will Bercow select the final list?
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Bercow will select the list. Some of the proposals are so obviously stupid/impossible that they should not be put to the vote.Benpointer said:Quick question: Will all 16 proposals be put to MPs this afternoon or will Bercow select the final list?
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This is something that anyone who actually pays attention has known for weeks if not months. Going forward the Speaker should disallow any amendment which does not accept this point.CarlottaVance said:
This does not mean we can't have Norway, Norway+, Canada, Corbyn's preferred version or any other final arrangement. It just means that for them as the next step after Brexit to happen the WA has to pass.0 -
The latter. A few are clearly out of order, some are duplicates, and some shouldn't really be taken for a variety of reasons. I think it will come down to six or seven choices. My detailed analysis is in last thread.Benpointer said:Quick question: Will all 16 proposals be put to MPs this afternoon or will Bercow select the final list?
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Thanks.Richard_Nabavi said:
Bercow will choose them, I think. But presumably in consultation with Letwin and the other proposers of the original motion.Benpointer said:Quick question: Will all 16 proposals be put to MPs this afternoon or will Bercow select the final list?
Just thinking some MPs are going to struggle if there are more than 10 questions on their multiple choice paper.0 -
The trouble is hundreds of our MPs are either ignorant of this or are ignoring it for perceived political gain.Richard_Tyndall said:
This is something that anyone who actually pays attention has known for weeks if not months. Going forward the Speaker should disallow any amendment which does not accept this point.CarlottaVance said:
This does not mean we can't have Norway, Norway+, Canada, Corbyn's preferred version or any other final arrangement. It just means that for them as the next step after Brexit to happen the WA has to pass.0 -
May should get some nice big cartoon diagrams made up to explain the facts to MPs. Everytime they start spouting nonsense May can point at a poster and ask the MPs "what does the Barney the Brexit dog say?"CarlottaVance said:0 -
Forget these ratings or Gove's inability to not plot.Casino_Royale said:
Here’s the thing: he is, but he’s also totally untrustworthy.AlastairMeeks said:Michael Gove's figures are appalling. He's well known and the public are clear in their minds that he's not Prime Ministerial.
I think he knows this but he also just can’t help himself.
The thought of Dominic Cummings as Number 10 Chief of Staff to PM Gove scares the bejesus out of Tory MPs.0 -
I do find this strange. HE did one thing that I think almost everyone agreed was a great service to the country which was to stop a Boris Premiership in its tracks. So why is this held against him by anyone other than those who continue to support the Blonde One?Casino_Royale said:
Here’s the thing: he is, but he’s also totally untrustworthy.AlastairMeeks said:Michael Gove's figures are appalling. He's well known and the public are clear in their minds that he's not Prime Ministerial.
I think he knows this but he also just can’t help himself.0 -
I don't think it necessarily reduces it because even assuming it's correct, you can do quite a wide range of different things under the existing WA.IanB2 said:
That handily reduces the list of options considerably.CarlottaVance said:
The tricky part is that since it's all the same WA, the PD wouldn't necessarily bind the UK government and the EU if they both wanted something else, and the opposition's leverage potentially disappears as soon as they pass the WA, it's hard to see how MPs can force the government to do something it doesn't want to do. They can vote for whatever arrangement of CU and SM and whatever else floats their boat, but as soon as TMay has got their votes she'll obviously go right back to doing whatever she thinks will produce the friendliest cabinet meetings.0 -
As a thought experiment, imagine a Freaky Friday where Michael Gove and Boris Johnson exchanged bodies. Michael Gove (the real one, not the one who looked like him) would already be Prime Minister.0
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Traitor! Splitter! "Preparation" is for pansy boys. Just go for it.JoeJamesBroughton said:
No deal - with proper preparation - would have worked very well from tomorrow, which is the date we promised the electorate.
What's the worst that could happen?
Remember that if you're dead you can't sue.0 -
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1110841211307335680Richard_Tyndall said:
This is something that anyone who actually pays attention has known for weeks if not months. Going forward the Speaker should disallow any amendment which does not accept this point.CarlottaVance said:
This does not mean we can't have Norway, Norway+, Canada, Corbyn's preferred version or any other final arrangement. It just means that for them as the next step after Brexit to happen the WA has to pass.0 -
In reality a great poll for Boris, he has more voters thinking he would be a good PM than both Corbyn and any other Tory leadership contender. Only May does better.
Boris also has fewer people thinking he would make a bad PM than think Corbyn would make a bad PM0 -
In Yes Minister, they called it "The Janet and John Bit."glw said:
May should get some nice big cartoon diagrams made up to explain the facts to MPs. Everytime they start spouting nonsense May can point at a poster and ask the MPs "what does the Barney the Brexit dog say?"CarlottaVance said:
Even then, I think Guto Bebb and Mark Francois would struggle.0 -
There's a lot of political posturing in the "options" put forward. For example the Nats have put forward "any deal must be agreed with Scottish and Welsh parliaments" yet don't say what the deal is. However strong their point, that isn't an option and now isn't the right time; it's just a position aimed at their domestic audience. Similarly a lot of Tories have proposed "17.4 million people voted for Leave so we should leave", which equally isn't an option and just there for positioning and to create a fuss when Bercow rejects it.TOPPING said:
The trouble is hundreds of our MPs are either ignorant of this or are ignoring it for perceived political gain.Richard_Tyndall said:
This is something that anyone who actually pays attention has known for weeks if not months. Going forward the Speaker should disallow any amendment which does not accept this point.CarlottaVance said:
This does not mean we can't have Norway, Norway+, Canada, Corbyn's preferred version or any other final arrangement. It just means that for them as the next step after Brexit to happen the WA has to pass.0 -
Thank you to the Moderator.0
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lol, there are 16 proposals?Benpointer said:Quick question: Will all 16 proposals be put to MPs this afternoon or will Bercow select the final list?
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oh god... Bill Cash...0
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Now Cash is making the point about the leaving date and the legal position - this mornings discussion refers. Maybe Cash is the mystery Betfair better.
PM says International Law takes precedence.0 -
Bill Cash and Andrew Bridgen in the same PMQs?Scrapheap_as_was said:oh god... Bill Cash...
Glad I missed this PMQs.0 -
Do you think if you wanted to stop spinning, you could? Or are those neural pathways irreparably scored into your brain now?HYUFD said:In reality a great poll for Boris, he has more voters thinking he would be a good PM than both Corbyn and any other Tory leadership contender. Only May does better.
Boris also has fewer people thinking he would make a bad PM than think Corbyn would make a bad PM0 -
A full quarter of the electorate appear to believe that Johnson is Prime Ministerial in the face of all evidence, so that is bound to make a dent in his figures.Richard_Tyndall said:
I do find this strange. HE did one thing that I think almost everyone agreed was a great service to the country which was to stop a Boris Premiership in its tracks. So why is this held against him by anyone other than those who continue to support the Blonde One?Casino_Royale said:
Here’s the thing: he is, but he’s also totally untrustworthy.AlastairMeeks said:Michael Gove's figures are appalling. He's well known and the public are clear in their minds that he's not Prime Ministerial.
I think he knows this but he also just can’t help himself.
Notably, far fewer are yet to make their minds up about Johnson than about him, so it's not entirely bad news for Gove.0 -
Boris is Marmite. Just like a certain Donald J Trump...HYUFD said:In reality a great poll for Boris, he has more voters thinking he would be a good PM than both Corbyn and any other Tory leadership contender. Only May does better.
Boris also has fewer people thinking he would make a bad PM than think Corbyn would make a bad PM
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Also a good poll for Javid as he is the only Tory leadership contender with higher net favourable ratings than May0
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Will Gardiner defy the Labour whip to oppose a second ref (surely not?)0
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I beg to differ:Richard_Tyndall said:
This is something that anyone who actually pays attention has known for weeks if not months. Going forward the Speaker should disallow any amendment which does not accept this point.CarlottaVance said:
This does not mean we can't have Norway, Norway+, Canada, Corbyn's preferred version or any other final arrangement. It just means that for them as the next step after Brexit to happen the WA has to pass.
What I accept is that...
"You WILL NOT, repeat NOT, be able to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement during an the current agreed extension."
But a longer extension? Who knows... I think the EU would be very willing to re-negotiate if we extended by a year with a committed purpose. (I'm not saying that's going to happen though.)
What Bercow should do is strike off the true unicorns like Malthouse - the EU will not agree to drop the backstop from the current deal.0 -
Did you just break the first rule of PB moderation?SandyRentool said:Thank you to the Moderator.
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With someone as totally rubbish as the Maybot getting the highest 'Agree' score, the rest of the contenders might as well give up now.
Maybe the public define 'having what it takes' to be PM as already living at 10 Downing Street.0 -
No, Richard T is right on this - look at the Peter Foster tweets.Benpointer said:
I beg to differ:Richard_Tyndall said:
This is something that anyone who actually pays attention has known for weeks if not months. Going forward the Speaker should disallow any amendment which does not accept this point.CarlottaVance said:
This does not mean we can't have Norway, Norway+, Canada, Corbyn's preferred version or any other final arrangement. It just means that for them as the next step after Brexit to happen the WA has to pass.
What I accept is that...
"You WILL NOT, repeat NOT, be able to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement during an the current agreed extension."
But a longer extension? Who knows... I think the EU would be very willing to re-negotiate if we extended by a year with a committed purpose. (I'm not saying that's going to happen though.)
What Bercow should do is strike off the true unicorns like Malthouse - the EU will not agree to drop the backstop from the current deal.0 -
A number of which can be combined to give more permutations!RobD said:
lol, there are 16 proposals?Benpointer said:Quick question: Will all 16 proposals be put to MPs this afternoon or will Bercow select the final list?
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Journos on Twitter touting Shad Cab resignations suggest he may.TheWhiteRabbit said:Will Gardiner defy the Labour whip to oppose a second ref (surely not?)
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John Baron now... no deal is fine..TheScreamingEagles said:
Bill Cash and Andrew Bridgen in the same PMQs?Scrapheap_as_was said:oh god... Bill Cash...
Glad I missed this PMQs.
Surely Private Francois will be called to finish this off?0 -
So apparently Labour sent Barry Gardiner over to the BBC where he told them a load of stuff then Labour went and announced it was going to do the opposite. Why do they keep sending him?0
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Typical council tax bills in England will rise by 4.7% in April - the second biggest increase in a decade, official figures show.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-477187180 -
Other than Malthouse and the unilateral backstop exit option, do any of the options actually require a renegotiation of the WA?Richard_Nabavi said:
No, Richard T is right on this - look at the Peter Foster tweets.Benpointer said:
I beg to differ:Richard_Tyndall said:
This is something that anyone who actually pays attention has known for weeks if not months. Going forward the Speaker should disallow any amendment which does not accept this point.CarlottaVance said:
This does not mean we can't have Norway, Norway+, Canada, Corbyn's preferred version or any other final arrangement. It just means that for them as the next step after Brexit to happen the WA has to pass.
What I accept is that...
"You WILL NOT, repeat NOT, be able to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement during an the current agreed extension."
But a longer extension? Who knows... I think the EU would be very willing to re-negotiate if we extended by a year with a committed purpose. (I'm not saying that's going to happen though.)
What Bercow should do is strike off the true unicorns like Malthouse - the EU will not agree to drop the backstop from the current deal.0 -
A - A Brexiter proposal objecting to the whole process and seeking to change SOs to prevent it happening againRobD said:
lol, there are 16 proposals?Benpointer said:Quick question: Will all 16 proposals be put to MPs this afternoon or will Bercow select the final list?
B - No Deal exit on 12 April
C - May's Deal exit on 22 May but with the UK able unilaterally to leave the backstop
D - Common Market 2.0
E - Reaffirm the referendum and commit to leave the EU (doesn't say how or when)
F - Leave but try to stay in a Customs Union
G - Revoke if a deal isn't agreed
H - EFTA and EEA
I - Only leave with a deal agreed with both Scottish and Welsh devolved bodies
J - Any deal must include commitment to stay in a Customs Union
K - Labour's Plan (new WA with customs union, alignment to SM, alignment on rights etc)
L - Revoke unless Parliament approves no deal exit
M - WA subject to confirmatory referendum (Kyle-Wilson)
N - Malthouse: WA with new agreement on NI backstop
O - A Brexiter one that looks like a so-called managed no deal if we cant agree a WA
P - A Brexiter one, no deal but without anything nasty happening please, if we cant agree a WA
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Disgraceful....
Macron goes to battle with French unions as he moves to force civil servants to work 35 hours a week
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6855601/Macron-goes-battle-French-unions-moves-force-civil-servants-work-35-hours-week.html
35hrs a week, its slave labour I tell you.0 -
That is perhaps true (though there are reasons to quibble with it) - but surely the point of the indicative votes is to ascertain if there is any consensus on destination ?Richard_Tyndall said:
This is something that anyone who actually pays attention has known for weeks if not months. Going forward the Speaker should disallow any amendment which does not accept this point.CarlottaVance said:
This does not mean we can't have Norway, Norway+, Canada, Corbyn's preferred version or any other final arrangement. It just means that for them as the next step after Brexit to happen the WA has to pass.
The WA is not a destination but a means to one - by far and away the easiest, but not the sole means.
Ans the specific terms of any amendments can be altered.0 -
So we could still see a May Deal versus No Deal referendum, facilitated by the Labour Party? Genius.CarlottaVance said:0 -
No I don't think so.Stereotomy said:
Other than Malthouse and the unilateral backstop exit option, do any of the options actually require a renegotiation of the WA?Richard_Nabavi said:
No, Richard T is right on this - look at the Peter Foster tweets.Benpointer said:
I beg to differ:Richard_Tyndall said:
This is something that anyone who actually pays attention has known for weeks if not months. Going forward the Speaker should disallow any amendment which does not accept this point.CarlottaVance said:
This does not mean we can't have Norway, Norway+, Canada, Corbyn's preferred version or any other final arrangement. It just means that for them as the next step after Brexit to happen the WA has to pass.
What I accept is that...
"You WILL NOT, repeat NOT, be able to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement during an the current agreed extension."
But a longer extension? Who knows... I think the EU would be very willing to re-negotiate if we extended by a year with a committed purpose. (I'm not saying that's going to happen though.)
What Bercow should do is strike off the true unicorns like Malthouse - the EU will not agree to drop the backstop from the current deal.0 -
https://twitter.com/xtophercook/status/1110812278851543042IanB2 said:
A - A Brexiter proposal objecting to the whole process and seeking to change SOs to prevent it happening againRobD said:
lol, there are 16 proposals?Benpointer said:Quick question: Will all 16 proposals be put to MPs this afternoon or will Bercow select the final list?
B - No Deal exit on 12 April
C - May's Deal exit on 22 May but with the UK able unilaterally to leave the backstop
D - Common Market 2.0
E - Reaffirm the referendum and commit to leave the EU (doesn't say how or when)
F - Leave but try to stay in a Customs Union
G - Revoke if a deal isn't agreed
H - EFTA and EEA
I - Only leave with a deal agreed with both Scottish and Welsh devolved bodies
J - Any deal must include commitment to stay in a Customs Union
K - Labour's Plan (new WA with customs union, alignment to SM, alignment on rights etc)
L - Revoke unless Parliament approves no deal exit
M - WA subject to confirmatory referendum (Kyle-Wilson)
N - Malthouse: WA with new agreement on NI backstop
O - A Brexiter one that looks like a so-called managed no deal if we cant agree a WA
P - A Brexiter one, no deal but without anything nasty happening please, if we cant agree a WA0 -
Trump won in 2016 of courseGIN1138 said:
Boris is Marmite. Just like a certain Donald J Trump...HYUFD said:In reality a great poll for Boris, he has more voters thinking he would be a good PM than both Corbyn and any other Tory leadership contender. Only May does better.
Boris also has fewer people thinking he would make a bad PM than think Corbyn would make a bad PM0 -
It's not only that though, many other people accuse him of disloyalty or strongly dislike him for other reasons. David Cameron, Scottish fishermen and English teachers for starters. He does seem to have an unfortunate talent for antagonising people. And his remarks about accepting the deal and unpicking it later add to the general air of suspicion and mistrust.Richard_Tyndall said:
I do find this strange. HE did one thing that I think almost everyone agreed was a great service to the country which was to stop a Boris Premiership in its tracks. So why is this held against him by anyone other than those who continue to support the Blonde One?Casino_Royale said:
Here’s the thing: he is, but he’s also totally untrustworthy.AlastairMeeks said:Michael Gove's figures are appalling. He's well known and the public are clear in their minds that he's not Prime Ministerial.
I think he knows this but he also just can’t help himself.0 -
Farage's new Brexit Party overtakes UKIP with YougovHYUFD said:0 -
Your two are C and N. Arguably I and K also, and J implies a different destination.Stereotomy said:
Other than Malthouse and the unilateral backstop exit option, do any of the options actually require a renegotiation of the WA?Richard_Nabavi said:
No, Richard T is right on this - look at the Peter Foster tweets.Benpointer said:
I beg to differ:Richard_Tyndall said:
This is something that anyone who actually pays attention has known for weeks if not months. Going forward the Speaker should disallow any amendment which does not accept this point.CarlottaVance said:
This does not mean we can't have Norway, Norway+, Canada, Corbyn's preferred version or any other final arrangement. It just means that for them as the next step after Brexit to happen the WA has to pass.
What I accept is that...
"You WILL NOT, repeat NOT, be able to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement during an the current agreed extension."
But a longer extension? Who knows... I think the EU would be very willing to re-negotiate if we extended by a year with a committed purpose. (I'm not saying that's going to happen though.)
What Bercow should do is strike off the true unicorns like Malthouse - the EU will not agree to drop the backstop from the current deal.0 -
Well, here's the EU decision Foster quotes from.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, Richard T is right on this - look at the Peter Foster tweets.Benpointer said:
I beg to differ:Richard_Tyndall said:
This is something that anyone who actually pays attention has known for weeks if not months. Going forward the Speaker should disallow any amendment which does not accept this point.CarlottaVance said:
This does not mean we can't have Norway, Norway+, Canada, Corbyn's preferred version or any other final arrangement. It just means that for them as the next step after Brexit to happen the WA has to pass.
What I accept is that...
"You WILL NOT, repeat NOT, be able to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement during an the current agreed extension."
But a longer extension? Who knows... I think the EU would be very willing to re-negotiate if we extended by a year with a committed purpose. (I'm not saying that's going to happen though.)
What Bercow should do is strike off the true unicorns like Malthouse - the EU will not agree to drop the backstop from the current deal.
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/38783/xt20006-en19-003.pdf
As far as I can see the
"Such an extension excludes any re-opening of the Withdrawal Agreement. "
statement applies to this specific extension. Nothing in the document says it will apply to a further extension.0 -
anothernick said:
It's not only that though, many other people accuse him of disloyalty or strongly dislike him for other reasons. David Cameron, Scottish fishermen and English teachers for starters. He does seem to have an unfortunate talent for antagonising people. And his remarks about accepting the deal and unpicking it later add to the general air of suspicion and mistrust.Richard_Tyndall said:
I do find this strange. HE did one thing that I think almost everyone agreed was a great service to the country which was to stop a Boris Premiership in its tracks. So why is this held against him by anyone other than those who continue to support the Blonde One?Casino_Royale said:
Here’s the thing: he is, but he’s also totally untrustworthy.AlastairMeeks said:Michael Gove's figures are appalling. He's well known and the public are clear in their minds that he's not Prime Ministerial.
I think he knows this but he also just can’t help himself.
Yet he is the good cop in his marriage.
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Haven't you already answered that question in the first sentence?edmundintokyo said:So apparently Labour sent Barry Gardiner over to the BBC where he told them a load of stuff then Labour went and announced it was going to do the opposite. Why do they keep sending him?
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Have a heart. Think of the satirists. They need the Goves in No 10TheScreamingEagles said:
Forget these ratings or Gove's inability to not plot.Casino_Royale said:
Here’s the thing: he is, but he’s also totally untrustworthy.AlastairMeeks said:Michael Gove's figures are appalling. He's well known and the public are clear in their minds that he's not Prime Ministerial.
I think he knows this but he also just can’t help himself.
The thought of Dominic Cummings as Number 10 Chief of Staff to PM Gove scares the bejesus out of Tory MPs.0 -
I noticed this too:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1110883371276738562
Thinks she can get the deal through?
Demob happy?0 -
The public set the bar low. Plenty of people still fall below that bar.SandyRentool said:With someone as totally rubbish as the Maybot getting the highest 'Agree' score, the rest of the contenders might as well give up now.
Maybe the public define 'having what it takes' to be PM as already living at 10 Downing Street.0 -
Im hearing some Tory MPs being allowed home from the commons tonight before the vote..the whips are suggesting to certain individuals that they have pressing engagements so they can get out of being whipped on the Art 50 extension vote..
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Must be the latter, surely.CarlottaVance said:I noticed this too:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1110883371276738562
Thinks she can get the deal through?
Demob happy?0 -
Yes, and of course in principle they could change their minds, but that would go against everything which they have repeatedly said, and I don't see the slightest appetite amongst the EU for doing so.Benpointer said:
Well, here's the EU decision Foster quotes from.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, Richard T is right on this - look at the Peter Foster tweets.Benpointer said:
I beg to differ:Richard_Tyndall said:
This is something that anyone who actually pays attention has known for weeks if not months. Going forward the Speaker should disallow any amendment which does not accept this point.CarlottaVance said:
This does not mean we can't have Norway, Norway+, Canada, Corbyn's preferred version or any other final arrangement. It just means that for them as the next step after Brexit to happen the WA has to pass.
What I accept is that...
"You WILL NOT, repeat NOT, be able to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement during an the current agreed extension."
But a longer extension? Who knows... I think the EU would be very willing to re-negotiate if we extended by a year with a committed purpose. (I'm not saying that's going to happen though.)
What Bercow should do is strike off the true unicorns like Malthouse - the EU will not agree to drop the backstop from the current deal.
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/38783/xt20006-en19-003.pdf
As far as I can see the "Such an extension excludes any re-opening of the Withdrawal Agreement. " text applies to this specific extension.0 -
If I knew I was stepping down as PM, I'd be punching the air for joy.CarlottaVance said:I noticed this too:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1110883371276738562
Thinks she can get the deal through?
Demob happy?0 -
Or Boris with his many, many, racist jibes. Shouldn't he quit.Stereotomy said:
Yeah, here's another Conservative MP who quit after an Islamophobia scandal: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/11/david-cameron-apologises-after-saying-ex-imam-supported-islamic-stateIshmael_Z said:
2. Yes, there are all sorts of nasties in the conservative party, like the anti-semitic ex MP Aidan Burley. Do you see that word "ex?" In Labour, he'd be contending for the party leadership. We handle things differently.
It took him a bit longer, though...
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Remember that Labour objects to any splitting of the WA and PD. Which is not without merit in some respects, though I think at some point you have to.Stereotomy said:
Other than Malthouse and the unilateral backstop exit option, do any of the options actually require a renegotiation of the WA?Richard_Nabavi said:
No, Richard T is right on this - look at the Peter Foster tweets.Benpointer said:
I beg to differ:Richard_Tyndall said:
This is something that anyone who actually pays attention has known for weeks if not months. Going forward the Speaker should disallow any amendment which does not accept this point.CarlottaVance said:
This does not mean we can't have Norway, Norway+, Canada, Corbyn's preferred version or any other final arrangement. It just means that for them as the next step after Brexit to happen the WA has to pass.
What I accept is that...
"You WILL NOT, repeat NOT, be able to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement during an the current agreed extension."
But a longer extension? Who knows... I think the EU would be very willing to re-negotiate if we extended by a year with a committed purpose. (I'm not saying that's going to happen though.)
What Bercow should do is strike off the true unicorns like Malthouse - the EU will not agree to drop the backstop from the current deal.0 -
John Cleese: Netflix never returned my calls after comedy pitch
Monty Python star criticises streaming service for rejecting his ideas – and says ITV pitch was turned down for being too intelligent
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/mar/27/john-cleese-netflix-never-returned-my-calls-after-comedy-pitch
Perhaps they weren't funny....
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Yeah, she's quitting tonight.CarlottaVance said:I noticed this too:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1110883371276738562
Thinks she can get the deal through?
Demob happy?0 -
Hard to say. If May, or whoever, said we'd like a CU solution, I am sure they'd be happy to accommodate.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, and of course in principle they could change their minds, but that would go against everything which they have repeatedly said, and I don't see the slightest appetite amongst the EU for doing so.Benpointer said:
Well, here's the EU decision Foster quotes from.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, Richard T is right on this - look at the Peter Foster tweets.Benpointer said:
I beg to differ:Richard_Tyndall said:
This is something that anyone who actually pays attention has known for weeks if not months. Going forward the Speaker should disallow any amendment which does not accept this point.CarlottaVance said:
This does not mean we can't have Norway, Norway+, Canada, Corbyn's preferred version or any other final arrangement. It just means that for them as the next step after Brexit to happen the WA has to pass.
What I accept is that...
"You WILL NOT, repeat NOT, be able to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement during an the current agreed extension."
But a longer extension? Who knows... I think the EU would be very willing to re-negotiate if we extended by a year with a committed purpose. (I'm not saying that's going to happen though.)
What Bercow should do is strike off the true unicorns like Malthouse - the EU will not agree to drop the backstop from the current deal.
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/38783/xt20006-en19-003.pdf
As far as I can see the "Such an extension excludes any re-opening of the Withdrawal Agreement. " text applies to this specific extension.
Time is unlikely to tell as I suspect May's deal will pass... the interesting thing is whether it passes with or without the Kyle amendment.0 -
They've worked out that he's a disgraced sack of shit and amoral sociopathic snake?CarlottaVance said:0 -
BoJo v Corbyn at the next GE could help the TIGers immensely.
(Assuming the country survives in the meantime, of course.)0 -
The A50 vote will go through and if the Gvt can get Brexiters to go home before it, so much the better.timmo said:Im hearing some Tory MPs being allowed home from the commons tonight before the vote..the whips are suggesting to certain individuals that they have pressing engagements so they can get out of being whipped on the Art 50 extension vote..
The only way I can make sense of the betting patterns is if there is a filibuster attempt lined up for the Lords, presumably tomorrow.
Meanwhile we have a good body of MPs determined to turn the Letwin process into chaos, both major parties struggling with whether and how to try to whip their members, and everyone else apparently only going to vote 'yes' to their favourite option. It will be a miracle if parliament emerges better regarded than it is right now.
Meanwhile Labour Shadow Business Minister Pidcock is on BBC PL and I am wondering whether there is any bottom to Labour's barrel.0 -
Tory voters see Jeremy Hunt as PM in waiting.CarlottaVance said:0 -
HYFUD will be very upset that his beloved Boris is not popular with conservative votersCarlottaVance said:0 -
Afternoon all
So in spite of having "taken back control", we know nothing that happens today matters. None of the votes mean very much and nothing will change except we will be a day further down the road to No Deal.
We have still, as the only games in town, leaving with an agreed WA on 22/5, leaving without an agreed WA on 12/4 or revocation. When Ken Clarke, who seems to know his onions, talked about revocation the other day, he didn't say anything about stopping Brexit. What he implied was that as the current negotiations have floundered, we should cancel and re-instigate A50 after the EU elections and after a suitable time for reflection.
Now. that could include a GE or it may not - I suppose if it did and a Party won a majority on a particular plan (Norway, Canada Lite, Andorra Heavy or whatever) that would be a mandated position to file for A50 again and re-commence negotiation. At least the EU would be clear where the UK stood and it might well be the second round of negotiations would proceed far more smoothly than the first.
I'd rather Revoke, sort out exactly what we want and then re-apply A50 on a united and coherent position than either run down the clock with no WA or support what (despite the claims of the May apologists) is a flawed WA.
The problem is the Conservatives are terrified their voter base will not take kindly to revocation claiming (via the Mail and Express) it's a betrayal of the sacred 23/6/16 Referendum. Maybe but there comes a point when, whether they like it or not, parties can decide to act in the national interest or their own interest and if acting in the national interest is contrary to their own interest, so be it.
I well remember the siren calls from Conservatives for taxes to be cut in the run up to the 1997 election but Clarke refused and in so doing may have contributed to Blair's landslide but he bequeathed a sound economic position to Brown. Sometimes the best for the country isn't the best for your Party and you have to take the hit in the national interest.0 -
ITV don't do comedy unless you include their newsFrancisUrquhart said:John Cleese: Netflix never returned my calls after comedy pitch
Monty Python star criticises streaming service for rejecting his ideas – and says ITV pitch was turned down for being too intelligent
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/mar/27/john-cleese-netflix-never-returned-my-calls-after-comedy-pitch
Perhaps they weren't funny....0 -
This. With the concluding missive "fuck the lot of you" as she walks from the '22 noisly farting.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah, she's quitting tonight.CarlottaVance said:I noticed this too:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1110883371276738562
Thinks she can get the deal through?
Demob happy?
At least Major had the style to say "I lost. I quit. See ya" and then go to the cricket where he could sit there grinning at the cameras through his shades.0 -
Surely HY will present the latest poll as cast iron proof that whatever it says is really about to happen, as he always does?Big_G_NorthWales said:
HYFUD will be very upset that his beloved Boris is not popular with conservative votersCarlottaVance said: 0 -
I appreciate your usual jovial tone, TSE, but it is hardly inconceivable that May leaves as head of the Conservative party with immediate effect - currently 24/1.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah, she's quitting tonight.CarlottaVance said:I noticed this too:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1110883371276738562
Thinks she can get the deal through?
Demob happy?
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Are we sure? Setting up expectations of a resignation announcement then actually saying "nothing has changed" would be a very Theresa May thing to doTheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah, she's quitting tonight.CarlottaVance said:I noticed this too:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1110883371276738562
Thinks she can get the deal through?
Demob happy?0 -
I think she might resign as PM and hand over as PM to someone else but remain as Tory leader for the next few months whilst a new leader is elected.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I appreciate your usual jovial tone, TSE, but it is hardly inconceivable that May leaves as head of the Conservative party with immediate effect - currently 24/1.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah, she's quitting tonight.CarlottaVance said:I noticed this too:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1110883371276738562
Thinks she can get the deal through?
Demob happy?0 -
She's probably relaxed because the Commons took back control and guess what? Even (k)nobs like JRM and our very own @******_****** realise that when you get down and dirty, which is where we are now, her deal is the only game in town.RochdalePioneers said:
This. With the concluding missive "fuck the lot of you" as she walks from the '22 noisly farting.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah, she's quitting tonight.CarlottaVance said:I noticed this too:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1110883371276738562
Thinks she can get the deal through?
Demob happy?
At least Major had the style to say "I lost. I quit. See ya" and then go to the cricket where he could sit there grinning at the cameras through his shades.0 -
The current government has some right idiots, but you take a look at the other team and think you are having a giraffe. Regardless of politics, I genuinely not sure how they would cope trying to keep on top of the day to day aspects of running the country.IanB2 said:
The A50 vote will go through and if the Gvt can get Brexiters to go home before it, so much the better.timmo said:Im hearing some Tory MPs being allowed home from the commons tonight before the vote..the whips are suggesting to certain individuals that they have pressing engagements so they can get out of being whipped on the Art 50 extension vote..
The only way I can make sense of the betting patterns is if there is a filibuster attempt lined up for the Lords, presumably tomorrow.
Meanwhile we have a good body of MPs determined to turn the Letwin process into chaos, both major parties struggling with whether and how to try to whip their members, and everyone else apparently only going to vote 'yes' to their favourite option. It will be a miracle if parliament emerges better regarded than it is right now.
Meanwhile Labour Shadow Business Minister Pidcock is on BBC PL and I am wondering whether there is any bottom to Labour's barrel.
The likes of Gove could start an argument in an empty lift and is constantly plotting, but I don't think people doubt he can actually run the day to day operation of a government department.0 -
Or making a cast-iron guarantee to resign by 2030 at the very latest.Stereotomy said:
Are we sure? Setting up expectations of a resignation announcement then actually saying "nothing has changed" would be a very Theresa May thing to doTheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah, she's quitting tonight.CarlottaVance said:I noticed this too:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1110883371276738562
Thinks she can get the deal through?
Demob happy?0 -
What are you talking about? 90% of respondents had an opinion on him, level with Theresa May and more than any other candidate. Might as well give him the job now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
HYFUD will be very upset that his beloved Boris is not popular with conservative votersCarlottaVance said:0 -
So what are the odds all the proposals get voted down. That’d be a laugh.0
This discussion has been closed.