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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The road to Brexit gets even more complicated
Picture Judy Goldhill
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1st like May in a stupidity contest.0
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Does proroguing Parliament require a vote of the Commons? I'm in the mood that I'd love to see May resign and prorogue Parliament 15 April and say "fine you refused to accept the deal, now we're exiting no deal and you lot can sort it out I'm off".0
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Isn't it only the Queen who can prorogue Parliament? No way would she (or her handlers) do that in these circumstances.Philip_Thompson said:Does proroguing Parliament require a vote of the Commons? I'm in the mood that I'd love to see May resign and prorogue Parliament 15 April and say "fine you refused to accept the deal, now we're exiting no deal and you lot can sort it out I'm off".
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Bercow still saying you're shit and you know you are, but if calling a shit a shit causes offence I am sorry0
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is there any way the DUP will now come on board?0
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It is apparently a prerogative act of the Crown to prorogue parliament.Danny565 said:
Isn't it only the Queen who can prorogue Parliament? No way would she (or her handlers) do that in these circumstances.Philip_Thompson said:Does proroguing Parliament require a vote of the Commons? I'm in the mood that I'd love to see May resign and prorogue Parliament 15 April and say "fine you refused to accept the deal, now we're exiting no deal and you lot can sort it out I'm off".
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6th, but fourth after preferences ranked. Or something.0
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Is that a photo of the Grand Wizards for the cult of the EU?0
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Bercow now inserting tongue up Hands bungholeRochdalePioneers said:Bercow still saying you're shit and you know you are, but if calling a shit a shit causes offence I am sorry
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Bill Cash as sick as a chip.
What might have been...0 -
So, are they going to play Stonhenge or not?0
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I really don't think there is any realistic prospect of that. That they still have not done so says to me that they have decided MV3 was a definite loser, and they are determined that they shall not be on the side of a loser. Indeed, their lack of concern about what happens suggests coming out on top personally is their only consideration.kjohnw said:is there any way the DUP will now come on board?
They're not the Tories, they're not going to be riven with factions and desperate panic about what is going on. Any concerns they should have about chaos or bad outcomes and what might occur in NI itself as a result, is either working out fine or they are also ignoring.
He puts me very much in mind of those characters you get in either american dramas about snooty rich people, or english period dramas about the upper classes, where you have these superficially well spoken people who are terribly concerned with the manners and improprirty of others, whilst displaying ugly personalities and horrible rudeness at every opportunity.RochdalePioneers said:Bercow still saying you're shit and you know you are, but if calling a shit a shit causes offence I am sorry
But he's enjoying himself no doubt. To borrow a Trumpian phrase, he could shoot someone dead right now and he'd be secure in his position.0 -
Bill Cash Parliament will regret taking back control...0
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That was a cheeky and not serious suggestion Danny.
I'm sorry but this argument is nonsense. The Withdrawal Agreement is Labour's position far more than the Tories position already. We went into this with Labour [eventually] saying they wanted a customs union and the Tories saying they want out of the customs union. It was a red line in fact.SouthamObserver said:
All it would take is a meaningful, credible move from the government to Labour’s position and leaving on 22nd May would be all but guaranteed. The PM can still deliver Brexit, but she will not countenance compromise because it will destroy her party. She is thwarting the will of the people.NickPalmer said:
Yes. I think the figures will be much the same, though.RochdalePioneers said:
Sure! They voted for an amendment to the government motion. Doesn't mean they will vote for the amended government motion...rottenborough said:I am lost. What is the main motion? Could this fall, in which case all the amendments are gone?
People who voted for Letwin and not Beckett presumably say that they want constructive alternatives to May's deal, but are not focused on stopping Brexit, even hard Brexit.
The withdrawal agreement smashes through the red line and ties us in a customs union with the EU exactly as Labour requested. If this deal goes through then in 12 months time we'll still be in a customs union with the EU and the Labour Party can seek to turn that temporary customs union into a permanent one during future negotiations.
If Corbyn had delivered this withdrawal agreement Labour would be backing it. There's nothing there that Labour didn't already say they wanted!0 -
I think Mrs May is doing quite well in impossible circumstances. Most other people would have resigned by now in frustration.0
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Well it’s not as if the ERGonauts haven’t been warned for months.0
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Being pigheaded is not well. She should have held the MV then resigned last December.AndyJS said:I think Mrs May is doing quite well in impossible circumstances. Most other people would have resigned by now in frustration.
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Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.Scott_P said:0 -
Yes, but what about those Brexiteers who have maintained cynical and dishonest opposition to the deal (which is nearly all of them)? What are they supposed to do?Scott_P said:0 -
And yet I bet they are madder at May for losing the vote than those who defeated them.AlastairMeeks said:Well it’s not as if the ERGonauts haven’t been warned for months.
She should have done when it became clear she had no plan other than to try to wind down the clock. That might have been viable had MV1 not been defeated by 230 votes, but more decisive and yes, difficult, action was needed in the fact of that defeat.AndyJS said:I think Mrs May is doing quite well in impossible circumstances. Most other people would have resigned by now in frustration.
Or, you know, Remaining.HYUFD said:0 -
This is odd, isn't it? From the Guardian live blog:
Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, asks Bercow if he will set up a committee to ensure that the indicative votes process runs smoothly on Wednesday.
Bercow says Oliver Letwin will take charge of the process, and he says he is sure Letwin will want to ensure it runs properly.
Has parliament decided that Letwin should take charge? I'd have thought that Vince makes a very sensible point (and you won't often hear me say that!) - surely it is parliament as a whole which should now be in charge of the process?0 -
The Commons does not care. A majority of them want him to behave as he does. If they didn't, he would have been removed by now.Andrew said:
A speaker has to be neutral, and be seen to be neutral. He's not and barely even tries to pretend he is.kle4 said:
But he's enjoying himself no doubt. To borrow a Trumpian phrase, he could shoot someone dead right now and he'd be secure in his position.
He, and those like him, have been suffering the misconception for quite some time that they can hold out as long as they like and the deal will be sat their waiting for them if they choose to give it their consideration at last. They may well find events overtake them, as indeed it did when Bercow ruled out MV3, or a simple path to it at least.Scott_P said:-1 -
Only in the same way that the Executive controls the timetable, and a government defeated twice on its only policy resigns.Andrew said:
A speaker has to be neutral, and be seen to be neutral. He's not and barely even tries to pretend he is.kle4 said:
But he's enjoying himself no doubt. To borrow a Trumpian phrase, he could shoot someone dead right now and he'd be secure in his position.0 -
Letwin committed during his speech to work with the government on the detail of how it works. It'll be interesting to see whether and how the gvt is willing to participateRichard_Nabavi said:This is odd, isn't it? From the Guardian live blog:
Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, asks Bercow if he will set up a committee to ensure that the indicative votes process runs smoothly on Wednesday.
Bercow says Oliver Letwin will take charge of the process, and he says he is sure Letwin will want to ensure it runs properly.
Has parliament decided that Letwin should take charge? I'd have thought that Vince makes a very sensible point (and you won't often hear me say that!) - surely it is parliament as a whole which should now me in charge of the process?0 -
The full preference matrix should be listed out from all 630-650 pink slips filled out so we can check what wins under all possible voting systems.0
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As the great Carole King sang “it’s too late baby, it’s too late”.Scott_P said:0 -
Whatever it is, it is too late by the looks of things.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, but what about those Brexiteers who have maintained cynical and dishonest opposition to the deal (which is nearly all of them)? What are they supposed to do?Scott_P said:
Unless the Tories win the GE.0 -
Blame everyone else ?Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, but what about those Brexiteers who have maintained cynical and dishonest opposition to the deal (which is nearly all of them)? What are they supposed to do?Scott_P said:
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Letwin has this in the bag.Richard_Nabavi said:This is odd, isn't it? From the Guardian live blog:
Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, asks Bercow if he will set up a committee to ensure that the indicative votes process runs smoothly on Wednesday.
Bercow says Oliver Letwin will take charge of the process, and he says he is sure Letwin will want to ensure it runs properly.
Has parliament decided that Letwin should take charge? I'd have thought that Vince makes a very sensible point (and you won't often hear me say that!) - surely it is parliament as a whole which should now me in charge of the process?
He had the bag when he went through the park and fed the ducks. Or did he leave it on the bus0 -
Never, etc...kjohnw said:is there any way the DUP will now come on board?
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Ah yes, of course. Silly me.another_richard said:
Blame everyone else ?Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, but what about those Brexiteers who have maintained cynical and dishonest opposition to the deal (which is nearly all of them)? What are they supposed to do?Scott_P said:0 -
Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, but what about those Brexiteers who have maintained cynical and dishonest opposition to the deal (which is nearly all of them)? What are they supposed to do?
Foam impotently as Brexit gets kicked into the long grass, and eventually overturned.
It'll be their fault, but they'll never find the self-awareness to realise it.
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Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure thatPhilip_Thompson said:
Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.Scott_P said:0 -
Ah, the Theresa May strategyanother_richard said:
Blame everyone else ?Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, but what about those Brexiteers who have maintained cynical and dishonest opposition to the deal (which is nearly all of them)? What are they supposed to do?Scott_P said:0 -
Norway +, Common Market 2.0, #CorbynsCustomsUnion - all would require a Withdrawal Agreement including the backstop - right?0
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YepNeilVW said:Norway +, Common Market 2.0, #CorbynsCustomsUnion - all would require a Withdrawal Agreement including the backstop - right?
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Is there any way the tories could engineer a GE without May as PM?0
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Haha. It's the way you tell 'em.rottenborough said:
Whatever it is, it is too late by the looks of things.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, but what about those Brexiteers who have maintained cynical and dishonest opposition to the deal (which is nearly all of them)? What are they supposed to do?Scott_P said:
Unless the Tories win the GE.
In all seriousness, it is definitely too late. Why one earth would a moderate Tory leaver or remainer who stayed loyal and true and backed the deal twice do so now, when something much more to their liking could now occur? The ERG can hardly reasonably complain (not that it will stop them) about those others not backing the deal at the third time of asking.0 -
How do you see the general election being called?rottenborough said:0 -
The 52:48% ratio strikes again.0
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The words "Letwin takes charge" should make anyone's blood run cold.Richard_Nabavi said:This is odd, isn't it? From the Guardian live blog:
Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, asks Bercow if he will set up a committee to ensure that the indicative votes process runs smoothly on Wednesday.
Bercow says Oliver Letwin will take charge of the process, and he says he is sure Letwin will want to ensure it runs properly.
Has parliament decided that Letwin should take charge? I'd have thought that Vince makes a very sensible point (and you won't often hear me say that!) - surely it is parliament as a whole which should now be in charge of the process?0 -
Letwin. Letwin. Letwin.Richard_Nabavi said:This is odd, isn't it? From the Guardian live blog:
Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, asks Bercow if he will set up a committee to ensure that the indicative votes process runs smoothly on Wednesday.
Bercow says Oliver Letwin will take charge of the process, and he says he is sure Letwin will want to ensure it runs properly.
Has parliament decided that Letwin should take charge? I'd have thought that Vince makes a very sensible point (and you won't often hear me say that!) - surely it is parliament as a whole which should now be in charge of the process?
What could possibly go wrong...0 -
yes that would force a General Election if Parliament is at war with the executiverottenborough said:0 -
So be it.HYUFD said:
Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure thatPhilip_Thompson said:
Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.Scott_P said:
I'm curious if the same principle would follow a Scottish Yes vote. The Westminster Parliament dictates unbearable, inexcusable and draconian penury terms onto Scotland then people say Scotland can't leave unless it takes that deal regardless of the referendum result.
F*** right off. I didn't Vote Leave to be told how we can leave by the EU and I don't think I'm the only one who thinks that by any means.0 -
If parliament prefers to hold the executive hostage, and the executive is afraid of losing the election, that can go on indefinitely.kjohnw said:
yes that would force a General Election if Parliament is at war with the executiverottenborough said:0 -
It's not the EU's responsibility to worry about upholding the referendum result. They don't give a flying fuck about why you voted Leave, and why should they?Philip_Thompson said:
So be it.HYUFD said:
Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure thatPhilip_Thompson said:
Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.Scott_P said:
I'm curious if the same principle would follow a Scottish Yes vote. The Westminster Parliament dictates unbearable, inexcusable and draconian penury terms onto Scotland then people say Scotland can't leave unless it takes that deal regardless of the referendum result.
F*** right off. I didn't Vote Leave to be told how we can leave by the EU and I don't think I'm the only one who thinks that by any means.0 -
Her willingness to stay the course on what she thinks is best and her devotion to duty speaks very well of her. But she isn't winning. She's losing so badly we've just had to beg the EU for an extension. She's a teacher who's lost control of the class.AndyJS said:I think Mrs May is doing quite well in impossible circumstances. Most other people would have resigned by now in frustration.
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Yes but they could be the basis of the PD, Juncker has though said a permanent Customs Union proposal from the UK could enable the WA to be reconsideredNeilVW said:Norway +, Common Market 2.0, #CorbynsCustomsUnion - all would require a Withdrawal Agreement including the backstop - right?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/26/juncker-may-backstop-eu-customs-union0 -
Scotland is not bound to the UK by a treaty with article 50 in it.Philip_Thompson said:
So be it.HYUFD said:
Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure thatPhilip_Thompson said:
Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.Scott_P said:
I'm curious if the same principle would follow a Scottish Yes vote. The Westminster Parliament dictates unbearable, inexcusable and draconian penury terms onto Scotland then people say Scotland can't leave unless it takes that deal regardless of the referendum result.
F*** right off. I didn't Vote Leave to be told how we can leave by the EU and I don't think I'm the only one who thinks that by any means.0 -
Actually that's unfair - he did a brilliant job in the 2010 negotiations with the LibDems and was really on top of the detail.Sean_F said:
The words "Letwin takes charge" should make anyone's blood run cold.Richard_Nabavi said:This is odd, isn't it? From the Guardian live blog:
Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, asks Bercow if he will set up a committee to ensure that the indicative votes process runs smoothly on Wednesday.
Bercow says Oliver Letwin will take charge of the process, and he says he is sure Letwin will want to ensure it runs properly.
Has parliament decided that Letwin should take charge? I'd have thought that Vince makes a very sensible point (and you won't often hear me say that!) - surely it is parliament as a whole which should now be in charge of the process?0 -
If Brexit is prevented, almost certainly, there will be a point in the future when the public are hostile to the EU, but we will be waiting a long time for a government that will act on it. You'd need the ERG to take full control of the Conservatives, or for the Conservatives to be replaced by a party to the right.HYUFD said:
Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure thatPhilip_Thompson said:
Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.Scott_P said:0 -
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if TM offers Corbyn the chance of a GE he will take it as he did in 2017AlastairMeeks said:
How do you see the general election being called?rottenborough said:0 -
I don't think the PM's diary has room for another walking holiday any time soon.AlastairMeeks said:
How do you see the general election being called?rottenborough said:0 -
That's not what is happening. We can leave with no deal if we want. Our MPs do not want to do that. A more amicable split requires doing things the other side wants. We got a rawer end of the deal, but your words are essentially saying any deal is unacceptable because it would mean the EU 'told us' in some fashion how we could leave. Given you have stated willingness to accept the deal in certain circumstances, that stance is not credible.Philip_Thompson said:
So be it.HYUFD said:
Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure thatPhilip_Thompson said:
Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.Scott_P said:
I'm curious if the same principle would follow a Scottish Yes vote. The Westminster Parliament dictates unbearable, inexcusable and draconian penury terms onto Scotland then people say Scotland can't leave unless it takes that deal regardless of the referendum result.
F*** right off. I didn't Vote Leave to be told how we can leave by the EU and I don't think I'm the only one who thinks that by any means.0 -
I believe that was the Osborne plan in the event of a Yes vote in Scotland certainly, for Barnier or Selmayr read Osborne in 2014Philip_Thompson said:
So be it.HYUFD said:
Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure thatPhilip_Thompson said:
Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.Scott_P said:
I'm curious if the same principle would follow a Scottish Yes vote. The Westminster Parliament dictates unbearable, inexcusable and draconian penury terms onto Scotland then people say Scotland can't leave unless it takes that deal regardless of the referendum result.
F*** right off. I didn't Vote Leave to be told how we can leave by the EU and I don't think I'm the only one who thinks that by any means.0 -
That's fine by me. I have no objection to the EU looking after the EU's interest.Stereotomy said:
It's not the EU's responsibility to worry about upholding the referendum result. They don't give a flying fuck about why you voted Leave, and why should they?Philip_Thompson said:
So be it.HYUFD said:
Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure thatPhilip_Thompson said:
Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.Scott_P said:
I'm curious if the same principle would follow a Scottish Yes vote. The Westminster Parliament dictates unbearable, inexcusable and draconian penury terms onto Scotland then people say Scotland can't leave unless it takes that deal regardless of the referendum result.
F*** right off. I didn't Vote Leave to be told how we can leave by the EU and I don't think I'm the only one who thinks that by any means.
I object to the UK being chicken and refusing to Leave without a deal if it comes to it. You never enter negotiations without being prepared to walk away empty handed if it comes to it.
Had Salmond won in 2014 would Cameron have remained in Downing Street and tried to force draconian terms on Scotland? Would the SNP have kowtowed like lickspittles and signed on to those draconian terms or been prepared to walk away with a unilateral declaration of independence if that's what it took.0 -
Do you think two thirds of MPs will vote for an early election in such circumstances?kjohnw said:
if TM offers Corbyn the chance of a GE he will take it as he did in 2017AlastairMeeks said:
How do you see the general election being called?rottenborough said:0 -
And so they pick a new leader, with or without member input, that leader shows a boldness to excise possibly significant numbers of serving MPs from their ranks, and then they campaign on this new policy, whatever it is, with potentially dozens of former members of parliament standing against them in those seats.Stereotomy said:
That will go well for the Tories will it?
May is a huge problem right now. But she didn't cause the Tories' problems either.0 -
the ERG and DUP will vote with the opposition if it prevents BINOAlastairMeeks said:
Do you think two thirds of MPs will vote for an early election in such circumstances?kjohnw said:
if TM offers Corbyn the chance of a GE he will take it as he did in 2017AlastairMeeks said:
How do you see the general election being called?rottenborough said:0 -
A la Canada but even then there would have to be a majority in the country for Brexit 2 and the longer time passes the less likely that becomes as each new generation looks likely to be more pro EU or at least pro EEASean_F said:
If Brexit is prevented, almost certainly, there will be a point in the future when the public are hostile to the EU, but we will be waiting a long time for a government that will act on it. You'd need the ERG to take full control of the Conservatives, or for the Conservatives to be replaced by a party to the right.HYUFD said:
Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure thatPhilip_Thompson said:
Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.Scott_P said:
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A May v Corbyn general election you mean ie May's Deal v Corbyn/SNP BINO or EUref2? Yet another own goal by the ERG?kjohnw said:
the ERG and DUP will vote with the opposition if it prevents BINOAlastairMeeks said:
Do you think two thirds of MPs will vote for an early election in such circumstances?kjohnw said:
if TM offers Corbyn the chance of a GE he will take it as he did in 2017AlastairMeeks said:
How do you see the general election being called?rottenborough said:
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Oh God. Do you object to people being too chicken to run across the railways lines in front of trains too?Philip_Thompson said:
That's fine by me. I have no objection to the EU looking after the EU's interest.Stereotomy said:
It's not the EU's responsibility to worry about upholding the referendum result. They don't give a flying fuck about why you voted Leave, and why should they?Philip_Thompson said:
So be it.HYUFD said:
Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure thatPhilip_Thompson said:
Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.Scott_P said:
I'm curious if the same principle would follow a Scottish Yes vote. The Westminster Parliament dictates unbearable, inexcusable and draconian penury terms onto Scotland then people say Scotland can't leave unless it takes that deal regardless of the referendum result.
F*** right off. I didn't Vote Leave to be told how we can leave by the EU and I don't think I'm the only one who thinks that by any means.
I object to the UK being chicken and refusing to Leave without a deal if it comes to it. ...0 -
That's not what I'm saying at all. I'm saying this deal is unacceptable and the only reason we're told to sign up to this deal is because its all the EU is willing to offer. That's not how negotiations work, the EU offers us a deal, we negotiate and we agree a deal both parties can work with.kle4 said:
That's not what is happening. We can leave with no deal if we want. Our MPs do not want to do that. A more amicable split requires doing things the other side wants. We got a rawer end of the deal, but your words are essentially saying any deal is unacceptable because it would mean the EU 'told us' in some fashion how we could leave. Given you have stated willingness to accept the deal in certain circumstances, that stance is not credible.Philip_Thompson said:
So be it.HYUFD said:
Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure thatPhilip_Thompson said:
Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.Scott_P said:
I'm curious if the same principle would follow a Scottish Yes vote. The Westminster Parliament dictates unbearable, inexcusable and draconian penury terms onto Scotland then people say Scotland can't leave unless it takes that deal regardless of the referendum result.
F*** right off. I didn't Vote Leave to be told how we can leave by the EU and I don't think I'm the only one who thinks that by any means.
If negotiations break down then we leave without a deal. That puts the onus on both parties to try and ensure negotiations don't break down but if they do we should still leave.0 -
There's no point in leaving if all that happens is you effectively remain a member but without any influence, so their position makes sense to me.HYUFD said:
Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure thatPhilip_Thompson said:
Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.Scott_P said:0 -
Just rejoice at that news and congratulate Letwin and all the sane Tories.0
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You are comparing apples and oranges. The UK started the Brexit process as a sovereign country renegotiating its relationship with other sovereign countries.Philip_Thompson said:
That's fine by me. I have no objection to the EU looking after the EU's interest.Stereotomy said:
It's not the EU's responsibility to worry about upholding the referendum result. They don't give a flying fuck about why you voted Leave, and why should they?Philip_Thompson said:
So be it.HYUFD said:
Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure thatPhilip_Thompson said:
Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.Scott_P said:
I'm curious if the same principle would follow a Scottish Yes vote. The Westminster Parliament dictates unbearable, inexcusable and draconian penury terms onto Scotland then people say Scotland can't leave unless it takes that deal regardless of the referendum result.
F*** right off. I didn't Vote Leave to be told how we can leave by the EU and I don't think I'm the only one who thinks that by any means.
I object to the UK being chicken and refusing to Leave without a deal if it comes to it. You never enter negotiations without being prepared to walk away empty handed if it comes to it.
Had Salmond won in 2014 would Cameron have remained in Downing Street and tried to force draconian terms on Scotland? Would the SNP have kowtowed like lickspittles and signed on to those draconian terms or been prepared to walk away with a unilateral declaration of independence if that's what it took.
If Scotland had voted for independence, it would have been the UK on both sides of the table. Scotland wouldn't become a sovereign country without an Act of Parliament in Westminster.0 -
Something which would have given satisfaction to non-Scots in the short term, but which would have generated intense ill feeling longer term.HYUFD said:
I believe that was the Osborne plan in the event of a Yes vote in Scotland certainly, for Barnier or Selmayr read Osborne in 2014Philip_Thompson said:
So be it.HYUFD said:
Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure thatPhilip_Thompson said:
Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.Scott_P said:
I'm curious if the same principle would follow a Scottish Yes vote. The Westminster Parliament dictates unbearable, inexcusable and draconian penury terms onto Scotland then people say Scotland can't leave unless it takes that deal regardless of the referendum result.
F*** right off. I didn't Vote Leave to be told how we can leave by the EU and I don't think I'm the only one who thinks that by any means.0 -
hopefully May would resign and a leaver PM coronationHYUFD said:
A May v Corbyn general election you mean ie May's Deal v Corbyn/SNP BINO or EUref2? Yet another own goal by the ERG?kjohnw said:
the ERG and DUP will vote with the opposition if it prevents BINOAlastairMeeks said:
Do you think two thirds of MPs will vote for an early election in such circumstances?kjohnw said:
if TM offers Corbyn the chance of a GE he will take it as he did in 2017AlastairMeeks said:
How do you see the general election being called?rottenborough said:0 -
I'm not sure why ERG types imagine there'll be another opportunity in their lifetime to achieve brexit - it really is this time or never. The best opportunity for them to get no deal has now passed but it's really all about the betrayal narrative for them, they aren't really interested in actually leaving.HYUFD said:
Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure thatPhilip_Thompson said:
Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.Scott_P said:0 -
You think Bill Cash is going to vote that he has confidence in the government?AlastairMeeks said:
Do you think two thirds of MPs will vote for an early election in such circumstances?kjohnw said:
if TM offers Corbyn the chance of a GE he will take it as he did in 2017AlastairMeeks said:
How do you see the general election being called?rottenborough said:0 -
Well, Wednesday cannot come soon enough, to see if any progress is actually made. I'd love to think a GE will not be in the offing, but it seems, to me, to be inexplicably popular among MPs and supporters, so I fear the worse there.
But with a majority taking things out of the government's hands there's certainly no chance of the government's preferred option occurring, so they have in essence finally ruled it out, and that is something.0 -
Did we make a decision to cross the railway lines already? If there's an oncoming train then cross at a different point or at a time that suits us.Chris said:
Oh God. Do you object to people being too chicken to run across the railways lines in front of trains too?Philip_Thompson said:
That's fine by me. I have no objection to the EU looking after the EU's interest.Stereotomy said:
It's not the EU's responsibility to worry about upholding the referendum result. They don't give a flying fuck about why you voted Leave, and why should they?Philip_Thompson said:
So be it.HYUFD said:
Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure thatPhilip_Thompson said:
Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.Scott_P said:
I'm curious if the same principle would follow a Scottish Yes vote. The Westminster Parliament dictates unbearable, inexcusable and draconian penury terms onto Scotland then people say Scotland can't leave unless it takes that deal regardless of the referendum result.
F*** right off. I didn't Vote Leave to be told how we can leave by the EU and I don't think I'm the only one who thinks that by any means.
I object to the UK being chicken and refusing to Leave without a deal if it comes to it. ...0 -
The 'we'll do it later' argument is an absolute fantasy, transparently about convincing themselves that they are not giving up on Brexit by refusing to back the only type they will be offered, even if they directly cause remain as a result.kingbongo said:
I'm not sure why ERG types imagine there'll be another opportunity in their lifetime to achieve brexit - it really is this time or never. The best opportunity for them to get no deal has now passed but it's really all about the betrayal narrative for them, they aren't really interested in actually leaving.HYUFD said:
Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure thatPhilip_Thompson said:
Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.Scott_P said:0 -
You think 17.4 million Brexit voters are going to roll over and play dead if Brexit is stopped by Parliamentary shenanigans?kingbongo said:
I'm not sure why ERG types imagine there'll be another opportunity in their lifetime to achieve brexit - it really is this time or never. The best opportunity for them to get no deal has now passed but it's really all about the betrayal narrative for them, they aren't really interested in actually leaving.HYUFD said:
Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure thatPhilip_Thompson said:
Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.Scott_P said:
The best opporunity is when we have a leaver as PM.0 -
The DUP don't care about BINO and most ERG don't want to terminate their careers.kjohnw said:
the ERG and DUP will vote with the opposition if it prevents BINOAlastairMeeks said:
Do you think two thirds of MPs will vote for an early election in such circumstances?kjohnw said:
if TM offers Corbyn the chance of a GE he will take it as he did in 2017AlastairMeeks said:
How do you see the general election being called?rottenborough said:0 -
You need to get to two thirds of MPs for a direct early election. If there’s a vote of no confidence others get the chance to form a government. I expect someone would succeed.rottenborough said:
You think Bill Cash is going to vote that he has confidence in the government?AlastairMeeks said:
Do you think two thirds of MPs will vote for an early election in such circumstances?kjohnw said:
if TM offers Corbyn the chance of a GE he will take it as he did in 2017AlastairMeeks said:
How do you see the general election being called?rottenborough said:0 -
And Parliament has been given a veto on no deal today, too. Options are at least beginning to narrow.kle4 said:Well, Wednesday cannot come soon enough, to see if any progress is actually made. I'd love to think a GE will not be in the offing, but it seems, to me, to be inexplicably popular among MPs and supporters, so I fear the worse there.
But with a majority taking things out of the government's hands there's certainly no chance of the government's preferred option occurring, so they have in essence finally ruled it out, and that is something.0 -
May's Deal left the EU, the SM and the CU once a trade deal was agreed, the ERG put their fingers in their ears and demanded second and third helpings of Brexit, they may well end up with nothingAndyJS said:
There's no point in leaving if all that happens is you effectively remain a member but without any influence, so their position makes sense to me.HYUFD said:
Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure thatPhilip_Thompson said:
Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.Scott_P said:0 -
Brexit is a bit like Judgement Day. Whilst MPs are desperately trying to turn it off it will launch a nuclear strike in order to preserve itself.
All these votes. These amendments of amendments. These warring factions inside the cabinet. The ERG. The government. It doesn't matter that a majority of them all agree that no deal is bad if they can't agree on the alternative, as we get no deal without an agreement .
Unless members of the House of Commons grow a brain, they aren't going to agree shit. Which means no deal. Regardless of how much they all think that's a bad idea, they seem to think it less bad than Prime Minister Gove/Johnson/Corbyn which is what they all truly fear.0 -
I suspect the number of MPs who would actually stand as independents in that situation is relatively low, and in many of those cases the Tories would win anyway.kle4 said:
And so they pick a new leader, with or without member input, that leader shows a boldness to excise possibly significant numbers of serving MPs from their ranks, and then they campaign on this new policy, whatever it is, with potentially dozens of former members of parliament standing against them in those seats.Stereotomy said:
That will go well for the Tories will it?
May is a huge problem right now. But she didn't cause the Tories' problems either.
To be honest, the GE option is essentially throwing the cards up in the air and hoping that this time they land in a way that allows a majority for something. I think having everyone stand on a manifesto which specifically endorses an option makes that more likely rather than less, because it strengthens the whip, but it's certainly not a guarantee of anything.0 -
No. Of course we didn't vote for leaving without a deal.Philip_Thompson said:
Did we make a decision to cross the railway lines already? If there's an oncoming train then cross at a different point or at a time that suits us.Chris said:
Oh God. Do you object to people being too chicken to run across the railways lines in front of trains too?Philip_Thompson said:
That's fine by me. I have no objection to the EU looking after the EU's interest.Stereotomy said:
It's not the EU's responsibility to worry about upholding the referendum result. They don't give a flying fuck about why you voted Leave, and why should they?Philip_Thompson said:
So be it.HYUFD said:
Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure thatPhilip_Thompson said:
Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.Scott_P said:
I'm curious if the same principle would follow a Scottish Yes vote. The Westminster Parliament dictates unbearable, inexcusable and draconian penury terms onto Scotland then people say Scotland can't leave unless it takes that deal regardless of the referendum result.
F*** right off. I didn't Vote Leave to be told how we can leave by the EU and I don't think I'm the only one who thinks that by any means.
I object to the UK being chicken and refusing to Leave without a deal if it comes to it. ...0 -
We all known May is more stubborn than a mule so fat chance of thatkjohnw said:
hopefully May would resign and a leaver PM coronationHYUFD said:
A May v Corbyn general election you mean ie May's Deal v Corbyn/SNP BINO or EUref2? Yet another own goal by the ERG?kjohnw said:
the ERG and DUP will vote with the opposition if it prevents BINOAlastairMeeks said:
Do you think two thirds of MPs will vote for an early election in such circumstances?kjohnw said:
if TM offers Corbyn the chance of a GE he will take it as he did in 2017AlastairMeeks said:
How do you see the general election being called?rottenborough said:0 -
The Brexit vote wasn't something offered it was something fought for - and voted for.kle4 said:
The 'we'll do it later' argument is an absolute fantasy, transparently about convincing themselves that they are not giving up on Brexit by refusing to back the only type they will be offered, even if they directly cause remain as a result.kingbongo said:
I'm not sure why ERG types imagine there'll be another opportunity in their lifetime to achieve brexit - it really is this time or never. The best opportunity for them to get no deal has now passed but it's really all about the betrayal narrative for them, they aren't really interested in actually leaving.HYUFD said:
Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure thatPhilip_Thompson said:
Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.Scott_P said:
The voters who backed it are still going to be there, only even angrier if betrayal is completed. I don't want to be "offered" a type of Brexit like I'm some starving orphan in a Dickensian novel going "please Sir, can I have some more?"0 -
I have no idea how MPs will sell Common Market 2.0 to Brexit voters, something that totally ignores their main motivations for voting that way . Likewise a lot of remain voters will be wondering what is the point of leaving at all under this arrangement. The press will absolutely lay into it.0
-
Correct, but that is very far removed from what was agreed. The fact that various ERG are saying they'd vote for it if May resigned, or if the DUP backed it, suggests they don't really believe this.AndyJS said:
There's no point in leaving if all that happens is you effectively remain a member but without any influence, so their position makes sense to me.HYUFD said:
Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure thatPhilip_Thompson said:
Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.Scott_P said:
0 -
We voted to Leave.Chris said:
No. Of course we didn't vote for leaving without a deal.Philip_Thompson said:
Did we make a decision to cross the railway lines already? If there's an oncoming train then cross at a different point or at a time that suits us.Chris said:
Oh God. Do you object to people being too chicken to run across the railways lines in front of trains too?Philip_Thompson said:
That's fine by me. I have no objection to the EU looking after the EU's interest.Stereotomy said:
It's not the EU's responsibility to worry about upholding the referendum result. They don't give a flying fuck about why you voted Leave, and why should they?Philip_Thompson said:
So be it.HYUFD said:
Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure thatPhilip_Thompson said:
Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.Scott_P said:
I'm curious if the same principle would follow a Scottish Yes vote. The Westminster Parliament dictates unbearable, inexcusable and draconian penury terms onto Scotland then people say Scotland can't leave unless it takes that deal regardless of the referendum result.
F*** right off. I didn't Vote Leave to be told how we can leave by the EU and I don't think I'm the only one who thinks that by any means.
I object to the UK being chicken and refusing to Leave without a deal if it comes to it. ...
If we can get a deal before we leave, great. If we can't oh well.0 -
Only if you accept their premise that we were not really leaving at all. How many of them actually believe that (Sean F points out info which gives us reason to doubt all of them do)? And given how angry so many remainers and soft Brexiters have been with the government's plans, it certainly is not BINO, since things are about to get a lot more BINOy.AndyJS said:
There's no point in leaving if all that happens is you effectively remain a member but without any influence, so their position makes sense to me.HYUFD said:
Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure thatPhilip_Thompson said:
Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.Scott_P said:
So really they are talking nonsense, as per usual. They want their Brexit and nothing else, and throw temper tantrums when it goes against them.
MPs will be pass something that leads us to remain, I don't think they actually care about selling some very soft Brexit option.Artist said:I have no idea how MPs will sell Common Market 2.0 to Brexit voters, something that totally ignores their main motivations for voting that way . Likewise a lot of remain voters will be wondering what is the point of leaving at all under this arrangement. The press will absolutely lay into it.
0 -
As do most divorcesSean_F said:
Something which would have given satisfaction to non-Scots in the short term, but which would have generated intense ill feeling longer term.HYUFD said:
I believe that was the Osborne plan in the event of a Yes vote in Scotland certainly, for Barnier or Selmayr read Osborne in 2014Philip_Thompson said:
So be it.HYUFD said:
Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure thatPhilip_Thompson said:
Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.Scott_P said:
I'm curious if the same principle would follow a Scottish Yes vote. The Westminster Parliament dictates unbearable, inexcusable and draconian penury terms onto Scotland then people say Scotland can't leave unless it takes that deal regardless of the referendum result.
F*** right off. I didn't Vote Leave to be told how we can leave by the EU and I don't think I'm the only one who thinks that by any means.0 -
Yes, Farage obviously can't wait to cry 'betrayal' again and Cash and Redwood were already having withdrawal symptoms about complaining about the EU, they are made to be rant against the EU, not to suggest any viable alternativekingbongo said:
I'm not sure why ERG types imagine there'll be another opportunity in their lifetime to achieve brexit - it really is this time or never. The best opportunity for them to get no deal has now passed but it's really all about the betrayal narrative for them, they aren't really interested in actually leaving.HYUFD said:
Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure thatPhilip_Thompson said:
Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.Scott_P said:0
This discussion has been closed.