Nothing has changed. Remain is a better deal. At least then we can re-invoke with a Leaver in charge. No unilateral exit from the backstop.
Nope, this was it, the only realistic chance to Leave the EU, if the Brexiteers have thrown away this one they will likely never get another chance, the demographics that the younger you are the more Remain you are probably ensure that
I'm not sure why ERG types imagine there'll be another opportunity in their lifetime to achieve brexit - it really is this time or never. The best opportunity for them to get no deal has now passed but it's really all about the betrayal narrative for them, they aren't really interested in actually leaving.
Yes, Farage obviously can't wait to cry 'betrayal' again and Cash and Redwood were already having withdrawal symptoms about complaining about the EU, they are made to be rant against the EU, not to suggest any viable alternative
You all miss the point. If you are a mouth foamer you can't vote for May's deal to secure Brexit. As May's deal isn't Brexit. It's a Betrayal and a deception. So no, they can't fall back into line to vote to leave the EU as if they vote to leave the EU it means we don't leave the EU
May's Deal leaves the EU, the SM and the CU once a trade deal is agreed, it was the best Brexit Deal on the table, by refusing it they may end up with the UK back in the EU, the CU and the SM
Bah humbug, it leaves us permanently tied into the CU unless or until the EU decides its happy for us to leave.
It leaves the UK in broadly the same position as Switzerland, only without the fees or the freedom of movement.
How long before Switzerland and Norway start demanding that they pay our level of fees? Or that they can leave FoM?
The backstop is at least as uncomfortable for the EU as for us. *And* we get internnational mediation if we think they aren't keeping up with their treaty obligations to implement a technical solution
The UK-wide part of the backstop is a customs union without single market participation. It's the opposite of Norway and Switzerland.
Also the EU is not obliged to implement a technical solution for the border. They are only obliged to consider one, but the bar it would have to meet is designed to be unachievable.
Also the EU is not obliged to implement a technical solution for the border. They are only obliged to consider one, but the bar it would have to meet is designed to be unachievable.
That's not true.
I posted a link to the relevant page of the WA before, and they are under an obligation to work towards it. Now, contracts can devolve into discussions of "best effort", etc. But whichever way you cut it, they cannot simply turn around and say "considered it, binned it".
What happens if TM deal wins on indicative vote but then falls on actual vote. With all other options eliminated doesn’t that mean we leave with no deal
Would be absolutely hilarious if that was the outcome and would prove what I've said all along about the folly of putting all you eggs in Letwin's basket.
In about 48 hours we will be discussing why handing over the reins to a man who left cabinet papers in a park bin was NEVER going to work. What were these MPs thinking? The HoC has to find something that can command enough support to be worth holding Euro elections for, and is palatable to the EuCo, and doesn't get its adherents deselected in the next election.
It'll just make things worse. I't'll be like putting bog roll down a third world toilet.
Also the EU is not obliged to implement a technical solution for the border. They are only obliged to consider one, but the bar it would have to meet is designed to be unachievable.
That's not true.
I posted a link to the relevant page of the WA before, and they are under an obligation to work towards it. Now, contracts can devolve into discussions of "best effort", etc. But whichever way you cut it, they cannot simply turn around and say "considered it, binned it".
You think it's possible to come up with a technical solution without any "physical infrastructure or related checks and controls" as well as not allowing any backsliding on North-South cooperation? The WA sets that bar for any future agreement that supersedes it.
So what are the first preference votes for the various options going to be?
I suggest:-
Revoke 120 Second ref 160 May's Deal 140 No Deal 120 May's Deal plus Norway 50 May's Deal plus CU 50
That looks roughly right for Wednesday's vote, then all depends on the preference system Letwin uses next Monday.
On those numbers could end up Second ref v May's Deal as the final choice after other options have been eliminated and second ref narrowly wins
Running through the numbers, I think either of them ends up with 280-290 votes max. Neither Revoke nor No Deal will pick up additional votes, but some No Dealers will abstain at the end.
Single Market and or Customs Union could get to 326 but they may not make the final 2
Will the public find it amusing that MPs may seek to overturn the results of the most recent national referendum using an electoral system they overwhelmingly rejected in the national referendum before that. Especially if the outcome is another referendum - third time lucky?!
"A switch to the Alternative Vote for Westminster elections would give more power to fascists, Conservative co-chairman Baroness Warsi warned today. Lady Warsi said that AV represented "a serious danger to our democracy"
James Cracknell OBE Double Olympic gold medallist:
“The Alternative Vote is so complicated that it will put people off voting and if it allows people who come in third to win then it’s certainly not fair"
David Cameron:
“I just feel it, in my gut, that AV is wrong. Politics shouldn’t be some mind-bending exercise."
Darren Gough England cricketer:
“I talk sport every single day, four till seven, so I know a level playing field when I see it. In cricket, you’re either in or out. So when I played cricket for England, when I was given out, I had to walk, I had to go. You didn’t get a second chance, so why should it be any different in politics?"
Sir Frank Williams CBE Founder and manager of the Williams F1 Formula One racing team:
"AV would give the losers, but not the leaders, several cracks at choosing who to vote for....That’s no way to run a fair race"
I mean just look at him!!! The fate of the entire nation now lies in the hands of this idiot!
That's what the Tories have brought us to, Oliver bleedin' Letwin gets to decide the fate of the nation.
That's why it's Corbyn for more at all elections from now on. I'm done!
Not just the UK the fate of Europe is now in Letwin's hands indeed the whole global economy could be affected by the Brexit his scheme ends up producing, going from Letwin to Corbyn is like going from Beau Brummell to Worzel Gummidge
I've changed my mind about a general election. I now think we need to have one this year.
Indeed. The Tories have totally lost the plot.
I'm willing to try a Corbyn government and that's where my vote will be going at the next available opportunity.
A Corbyn government of course guarantees BINO or EUref2
Yes. Saturday nights shenanigans basically put me to the point where I'm beyond caring really...
I just want this torture to end and the Tories to be eviscerated for ******* everything up.
The Tories won't be eviscerated, most Tory MPs voted for May's Deal, to keep No Deal on the Table, against extending Article 50 and against indicative votes, it is Labour, LD, SNP MPs and a few Tory rebels from the ERG and the Remain wing who have led us to where we are
But May selected the Red Lines and failed to reach out at all until far too late.
Yet her Deal could still even win the indicative votes of MPs
So what are the first preference votes for the various options going to be?
I suggest:-
Revoke 120 Second ref 160 May's Deal 140 No Deal 120 May's Deal plus Norway 50 May's Deal plus CU 50
That looks roughly right for Wednesday's vote, then all depends on the preference system Letwin uses next Monday.
On those numbers could end up Second ref v May's Deal as the final choice after other options have been eliminated and second ref narrowly wins
Running through the numbers, I think either of them ends up with 280-290 votes max. Neither Revoke nor No Deal will pick up additional votes, but some No Dealers will abstain at the end.
Single Market and or Customs Union could get to 326 but they may not make the final 2
Will the public find it amusing that MPs may seek to overturn the results of the most recent national referendum using an electoral system they overwhelmingly rejected in the national referendum before that. Especially if the outcome is another referendum - third time lucky?!
"A switch to the Alternative Vote for Westminster elections would give more power to fascists, Conservative co-chairman Baroness Warsi warned today. Lady Warsi said that AV represented "a serious danger to our democracy"
James Cracknell OBE Double Olympic gold medallist:
“The Alternative Vote is so complicated that it will put people off voting and if it allows people who come in third to win then it’s certainly not fair"
David Cameron:
“I just feel it, in my gut, that AV is wrong. Politics shouldn’t be some mind-bending exercise."
Darren Gough England cricketer:
“I talk sport every single day, four till seven, so I know a level playing field when I see it. In cricket, you’re either in or out. So when I played cricket for England, when I was given out, I had to walk, I had to go. You didn’t get a second chance, so why should it be any different in politics?"
Sir Frank Williams CBE Founder and manager of the Williams F1 Formula One racing team:
"AV would give the losers, but not the leaders, several cracks at choosing who to vote for....That’s no way to run a fair race"
If MPs choose a referendum by AV that referendum should be conducted under AV
Also the EU is not obliged to implement a technical solution for the border. They are only obliged to consider one, but the bar it would have to meet is designed to be unachievable.
That's not true.
I posted a link to the relevant page of the WA before, and they are under an obligation to work towards it. Now, contracts can devolve into discussions of "best effort", etc. But whichever way you cut it, they cannot simply turn around and say "considered it, binned it".
You think it's possible to come up with a technical solution without any "physical infrastructure or related checks and controls" as well as not allowing any backsliding on North-South cooperation? The WA sets that bar for any future agreement that supersedes it.
Just to add, that's why your characterisation of them not being able to say "considered it, binned it" is irrelevant. There is simply no possible solution that meets all of the political requirements other than something that is based on regulatory and customs alignment.
The minds of the skeptics is already concentrated, or nothing will concentrate them. There's now nothing fo them to concentrate on. If the government cannot get a majority on handling the business of the house, it certainly will not overcome that to supporting its deal.
The government is over on this issue, it is free vote time and attempt to implement whatever the house comes up with.
Night all.
I think you're underestimating tribal loyalty. It will take a lot for Tory govt ministers to break ranks and vote for a Labourish Brexit.
I also think Theresa May is absolutely stubborn enough to avoid making this a free vote and tactically it's the right call since her deal still has a good chance of passing.
The minds of the skeptics is already concentrated, or nothing will concentrate them. There's now nothing fo them to concentrate on. If the government cannot get a majority on handling the business of the house, it certainly will not overcome that to supporting its deal.
The government is over on this issue, it is free vote time and attempt to implement whatever the house comes up with.
Night all.
I think you're underestimating tribal loyalty. It will take a lot for Tory govt ministers to break ranks and vote for a Labourish Brexit.
I also think Theresa May is absolutely stubborn enough to avoid making this a free vote and tactically it's the right call since her deal still has a good chance of passing.
Norway, then. It makes more sense than Corbyn’s customs union.
Hardly perverse, when Leyton has said he would, and will vote again for May’s deal. He simply recognises, unlike May, that there must be alternatives other than No Deal - again an option he said last night should be included in the votes to come.
The minds of the skeptics is already concentrated, or nothing will concentrate them. There's now nothing fo them to concentrate on. If the government cannot get a majority on handling the business of the house, it certainly will not overcome that to supporting its deal.
The government is over on this issue, it is free vote time and attempt to implement whatever the house comes up with.
Night all.
I think you're underestimating tribal loyalty. It will take a lot for Tory govt ministers to break ranks and vote for a Labourish Brexit.
I also think Theresa May is absolutely stubborn enough to avoid making this a free vote and tactically it's the right call since her deal still has a good chance of passing.
Also even if they vote for it, since Labour are split between people who want no brexit and people who want a disastrous, capitalism-discrediting brexit, it's hard to see Labour MPs actually backing a Labourish brexit all the way through the inevitable problems and compromises. Why take the hit to vote for something that's designed to fail?
Prince Chas has stood around in Cuba like he's got a glass cock. Casino went full Beautiful Mind over the 2 million strong Revoke March. May has almost completed her transformation to her final form which the Miss Havisham of No. 10. Mueller was meh but Trump is still an ignorant piece of ochre coloured shit. Oliver Letlabourwin is apparently still a thing. Pete Buttigieg is almost certainly not going to be POTUS but you can still make money betting that he will. SeanT's Mrs is apparently turning into the wrong Mitford sister since she read some book about China. Corbo danced next to a statue of some old c**t who used to be on the telly in Morecambe. Brexit is proper LOL.
What happens if TM deal wins on indicative vote but then falls on actual vote. With all other options eliminated doesn’t that mean we leave with no deal
Would be absolutely hilarious if that was the outcome and would prove what I've said all along about the folly of putting all you eggs in Letwin's basket.
In about 48 hours we will be discussing why handing over the reins to a man who left cabinet papers in a park bin was NEVER going to work. What were these MPs thinking? The HoC has to find something that can command enough support to be worth holding Euro elections for, and is palatable to the EuCo, and doesn't get its adherents deselected in the next election.
It'll just make things worse. I't'll be like putting bog roll down a third world toilet.
With Parliament having just voted to take back control on Wednesday with a yet to be announced cherry picked list of indicative votes, be prepared to watch MPs behave like a bunch of kids who have bunked off school and now find themselves being left unsupervised at a pic n mix sweet stand, it will not end well! I suspect May's criticism of MPs last week will prove to have been very prescient by end of this week. The idea heavily being pushed by MPs across the Commons & in the Lobby that Theresa May alone deserves to carry the blame for this chaotic & dysfunctional Parliament being unable to deliver on Brexit is now hanging on an a very shoogly peg.
The minds of the skeptics is already concentrated, or nothing will concentrate them. There's now nothing fo them to concentrate on. If the government cannot get a majority on handling the business of the house, it certainly will not overcome that to supporting its deal.
The government is over on this issue, it is free vote time and attempt to implement whatever the house comes up with.
Night all.
I think you're underestimating tribal loyalty. It will take a lot for Tory govt ministers to break ranks and vote for a Labourish Brexit.
I also think Theresa May is absolutely stubborn enough to avoid making this a free vote and tactically it's the right call since her deal still has a good chance of passing.
Norway, then. It makes more sense than Corbyn’s customs union.
I'm up for that. But I suspect it will drop out early.
There would be some logic in allowing MPs multiple votes, so that they could indicate a preference for all those options they were prepared to support. This might be a better way to identify where the consensus lies than forcing everyone to a first choice and then trying to transfer the votes about. In Letwin's place I would do that first and publish the results to inform whatever exhaustive or transferable process they decide to use.
The minds of the skeptics is already concentrated, or nothing will concentrate them. There's now nothing fo them to concentrate on. If the government cannot get a majority on handling the business of the house, it certainly will not overcome that to supporting its deal.
The government is over on this issue, it is free vote time and attempt to implement whatever the house comes up with.
Night all.
I think you're underestimating tribal loyalty. It will take a lot for Tory govt ministers to break ranks and vote for a Labourish Brexit.
I also think Theresa May is absolutely stubborn enough to avoid making this a free vote and tactically it's the right call since her deal still has a good chance of passing.
Yet we all know the ERG recognises only its own whip.
What a mess it is.the very idea of MP's taking control of Brexit is extremely worrying. Meanwhile , the Champion County is cruising on at circa 400-4 v the MCC
Comments
Also the EU is not obliged to implement a technical solution for the border. They are only obliged to consider one, but the bar it would have to meet is designed to be unachievable.
I posted a link to the relevant page of the WA before, and they are under an obligation to work towards it. Now, contracts can devolve into discussions of "best effort", etc. But whichever way you cut it, they cannot simply turn around and say "considered it, binned it".
That's what the Tories have brought us to, Oliver bleedin' Letwin gets to decide the fate of the nation.
That's why it's Corbyn for more at all elections from now on. I'm done!
It'll just make things worse. I't'll be like putting bog roll down a third world toilet.
The full John Curtis interview is now available:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPEFp9oIZ-0
I am reminded of all those quotes from 2011
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/av/av-system-would-give-fascists-more-power-2257467.html
"A switch to the Alternative Vote for Westminster elections would give more power to fascists, Conservative co-chairman Baroness Warsi warned today. Lady Warsi said that AV represented "a serious danger to our democracy"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/av-referendum/8491800/AV-The-No-Campaign-in-quotes.html
James Cracknell OBE Double Olympic gold medallist:
“The Alternative Vote is so complicated that it will put people off voting and if it allows people who come in third to win then it’s certainly not fair"
David Cameron:
“I just feel it, in my gut, that AV is wrong. Politics shouldn’t be some mind-bending exercise."
Darren Gough England cricketer:
“I talk sport every single day, four till seven, so I know a level playing field when I see it. In cricket, you’re either in or out. So when I played cricket for England, when I was given out, I had to walk, I had to go. You didn’t get a second chance, so why should it be any different in politics?"
Sir Frank Williams CBE Founder and manager of the Williams F1 Formula One racing team:
"AV would give the losers, but not the leaders, several cracks at choosing who to vote for....That’s no way to run a fair race"
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1110318742880301057
I also think Theresa May is absolutely stubborn enough to avoid making this a free vote and tactically it's the right call since her deal still has a good chance of passing.
It is the PM who has been perverse.
Casino went full Beautiful Mind over the 2 million strong Revoke March.
May has almost completed her transformation to her final form which the Miss Havisham of No. 10.
Mueller was meh but Trump is still an ignorant piece of ochre coloured shit.
Oliver Letlabourwin is apparently still a thing.
Pete Buttigieg is almost certainly not going to be POTUS but you can still make money betting that he will.
SeanT's Mrs is apparently turning into the wrong Mitford sister since she read some book about China.
Corbo danced next to a statue of some old c**t who used to be on the telly in Morecambe.
Brexit is proper LOL.
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/brexit-march-peoples-vote-crowd-size