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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The road to Brexit gets even more complicated
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What might have been...
They're not the Tories, they're not going to be riven with factions and desperate panic about what is going on. Any concerns they should have about chaos or bad outcomes and what might occur in NI itself as a result, is either working out fine or they are also ignoring. He puts me very much in mind of those characters you get in either american dramas about snooty rich people, or english period dramas about the upper classes, where you have these superficially well spoken people who are terribly concerned with the manners and improprirty of others, whilst displaying ugly personalities and horrible rudeness at every opportunity.
But he's enjoying himself no doubt. To borrow a Trumpian phrase, he could shoot someone dead right now and he'd be secure in his position.
The withdrawal agreement smashes through the red line and ties us in a customs union with the EU exactly as Labour requested. If this deal goes through then in 12 months time we'll still be in a customs union with the EU and the Labour Party can seek to turn that temporary customs union into a permanent one during future negotiations.
If Corbyn had delivered this withdrawal agreement Labour would be backing it. There's nothing there that Labour didn't already say they wanted!
Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, asks Bercow if he will set up a committee to ensure that the indicative votes process runs smoothly on Wednesday.
Bercow says Oliver Letwin will take charge of the process, and he says he is sure Letwin will want to ensure it runs properly.
Has parliament decided that Letwin should take charge? I'd have thought that Vince makes a very sensible point (and you won't often hear me say that!) - surely it is parliament as a whole which should now be in charge of the process?
Unless the Tories win the GE.
He had the bag when he went through the park and fed the ducks. Or did he leave it on the bus
Foam impotently as Brexit gets kicked into the long grass, and eventually overturned.
It'll be their fault, but they'll never find the self-awareness to realise it.
More GE news.
In all seriousness, it is definitely too late. Why one earth would a moderate Tory leaver or remainer who stayed loyal and true and backed the deal twice do so now, when something much more to their liking could now occur? The ERG can hardly reasonably complain (not that it will stop them) about those others not backing the deal at the third time of asking.
What could possibly go wrong...
I'm curious if the same principle would follow a Scottish Yes vote. The Westminster Parliament dictates unbearable, inexcusable and draconian penury terms onto Scotland then people say Scotland can't leave unless it takes that deal regardless of the referendum result.
F*** right off. I didn't Vote Leave to be told how we can leave by the EU and I don't think I'm the only one who thinks that by any means.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/26/juncker-may-backstop-eu-customs-union
I object to the UK being chicken and refusing to Leave without a deal if it comes to it. You never enter negotiations without being prepared to walk away empty handed if it comes to it.
Had Salmond won in 2014 would Cameron have remained in Downing Street and tried to force draconian terms on Scotland? Would the SNP have kowtowed like lickspittles and signed on to those draconian terms or been prepared to walk away with a unilateral declaration of independence if that's what it took.
That will go well for the Tories will it?
May is a huge problem right now. But she didn't cause the Tories' problems either.
If negotiations break down then we leave without a deal. That puts the onus on both parties to try and ensure negotiations don't break down but if they do we should still leave.
If Scotland had voted for independence, it would have been the UK on both sides of the table. Scotland wouldn't become a sovereign country without an Act of Parliament in Westminster.
But with a majority taking things out of the government's hands there's certainly no chance of the government's preferred option occurring, so they have in essence finally ruled it out, and that is something.
The best opporunity is when we have a leaver as PM.
All these votes. These amendments of amendments. These warring factions inside the cabinet. The ERG. The government. It doesn't matter that a majority of them all agree that no deal is bad if they can't agree on the alternative, as we get no deal without an agreement .
Unless members of the House of Commons grow a brain, they aren't going to agree shit. Which means no deal. Regardless of how much they all think that's a bad idea, they seem to think it less bad than Prime Minister Gove/Johnson/Corbyn which is what they all truly fear.
To be honest, the GE option is essentially throwing the cards up in the air and hoping that this time they land in a way that allows a majority for something. I think having everyone stand on a manifesto which specifically endorses an option makes that more likely rather than less, because it strengthens the whip, but it's certainly not a guarantee of anything.
The voters who backed it are still going to be there, only even angrier if betrayal is completed. I don't want to be "offered" a type of Brexit like I'm some starving orphan in a Dickensian novel going "please Sir, can I have some more?"
If we can get a deal before we leave, great. If we can't oh well.
So really they are talking nonsense, as per usual. They want their Brexit and nothing else, and throw temper tantrums when it goes against them. MPs will be pass something that leads us to remain, I don't think they actually care about selling some very soft Brexit option.