politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What four years of Govey as EdSec did to the teaching vote
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If it looks like a big number and acts like a big number then maybe it is a big number---as opposed (I understand) to the to the "anti revoke" petition.WhisperingOracle said:Re : the petition, we really need someone who's good with figures and data - I think a user with Hamilton in their name was on the other day - to see how much it r;eally is slowing down. It still seems to be managing about a million a day, which is I what I mistakenly thought it was doing last week, but a numbers brain may be able to shed some light on the data.
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What are the annual contributions for this fictitious customs union deal ?bigjohnowls said:I would support No Deal over either Revoke or a 2nd Referendum
I dont want any of the 3 though
#CorbynsCustomsUnion for me.0 -
Yes. In 1688 they resolved the house into a committee, temporarily expelled some trouble makers, deposed the king and offered the throne to a Dutchman. I think they did all that in one sitting.El_Capitano said:Is Stephen Bush right here? https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/03/theresa-may-s-threats-mps-make-no-sense-all
"Ultimately the British constitution is a one-line document: if you have a parliamentary majority, you can do what you want. If MPs can cohere around an alternative plan they could appoint one of their number to negotiate with the EU, or even send a letter revoking Article 50 from the House of Commons rather than from the executive if they so desire."0 -
I'm not sure about that. If it defies expectations of a set limit, it may exceed its original impact.Ishmael_Z said:
This purports to know that sort of thing:WhisperingOracle said:Re the petition, we really need someone who's good with figures and data - I think a user with Hamilton in their name was on the other day - to see how much it really is slowing down. It still seems to be managing about a million a day, which is I what I mistakenly thought it was doing last week, but a numbers brain may be able to shed some light on the data.
https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584
Hover over AVERAGE: 289 PER MINUTE and it gives you hourly and daily equivalents. I think it was about 600 per minute yesterday afternoon, in which case the rate has halved. I also think it's a bit academic - it has already produced all the impact it is going to have.
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Pretty clear government expects Letwin to pass0
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#CorbynsCustomsUnion is defined as "No Deal which Corbyn can blame on the Tories".TGOHF said:
What are the annual contributions for this fictitious customs union deal ?bigjohnowls said:I would support No Deal over either Revoke or a 2nd Referendum
I dont want any of the 3 though
#CorbynsCustomsUnion for me.0 -
What possible reason do you have for that? It’s crazy and very much against Labour policy.bigjohnowls said:I would support No Deal over either Revoke or a 2nd Referendum
I dont want any of the 3 though
#CorbynsCustomsUnion for me.0 -
I disagree with most of what you say, but you were right there. Having claimed 700,000 last time they simply had to claim a million whatever happened.Casino_Royale said:
Pre-planned spin. I laid that out on here before 10am on Saturday morning as well.Ishmael_Z said:
I wonder where they got the idea, if what you suggest is true.Casino_Royale said:
I never said anything of the sort.Richard_Tyndall said:
Although to be cruel, on those numbers Casino's 154 was closer than your 1 million.IanB2 said:
Certainly closer than Casino's 154Peter_the_Punter said:
My guess was about half a million, so not bad for an amateur.CarlottaVance said:
My numbers were credible and calculated the whole way through.
It’s just the PV mob didn’t want to hear it.
It’s too late now anyway. The million marchers headlines have been generated, and won’t change. Just as I feared.
"We sent London a million marchers..." I can picture the words painted on some form of public transport...
The organisers are very well advised by the masters, like Alastair Campbell.0 -
Cash having a go at arguing A50 can't be postponed without a vote of parliament. Lidington promises him a letter, and says government already has consequential legislation in hand but that EU Council decision holds the field. Reminds Cash that Parliament voted for an extension. And tells Hoey that UK law has to align with EU law.0
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It’s odd because hitherto, and I think both Sean Fear and I said this, it was surprising how relatively straightforward a time the Government had in enabling its Brexit legislation.Harris_Tweed said:
I still find this the most amazing* aspect of the process: the vehemence and size of the Tory opposition to the Deal last autumn. Hedging their bets with a “it’s not great, but we’ll look at it” would let them wiggle now. But having marched their supporters up the hill, they look in the Facebook comments like traitors if they back it, or look like traitors if they risk no Brexit by continuing to vote against.Richard_Nabavi said:
The trouble is that so many Tory MPs have trashed the deal and party activists have swallowed the nonsense wholesale, so if they now go ahead and reluctantly implement it it will be seen by many Tory voters and activists as at best a humiliating climbdown and more likely as a disgraceful act of betrayal.Sean_F said:
Voting through the WA would not be a disaster for the Tories. I doubt if a softer Brexit would hurt them much.Richard_Nabavi said:
There isn't one.IanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
No Deal would hurt them; Revoke would hurt even more.
It didn't need to be like that, but that is the logical consequence of the behaviour of many Tory MPs since November.
(*Well, one of. Amid stiff competition)0 -
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I was joking CR. That is what the smiley means.Casino_Royale said:
I never said anything of the sort.Richard_Tyndall said:
Although to be cruel, on those numbers Casino's 154 was closer than your 1 million.IanB2 said:
Certainly closer than Casino's 154Peter_the_Punter said:
My guess was about half a million, so not bad for an amateur.CarlottaVance said:
My numbers were credible and calculated the whole way through.
It’s just the PV mob didn’t want to hear it.
It’s too late now anyway. The million marchers headlines have been generated, and won’t change. Just as I feared.0 -
Yep that would be my position as well.bigjohnowls said:I would support No Deal over either Revoke or a 2nd Referendum
I dont want any of the 3 though
#CorbynsCustomsUnion for me.0 -
Yes, I too was surprised. I think the government plan expected a sizable amount of internal opposition, but there was so much, so vicious, and it spiralled and just ruined any chance of anyone else being persuaded to back it.Harris_Tweed said:
I still find this the most amazing* aspect of the process: the vehemence and size of the Tory opposition to the Deal last autumn. Hedging their bets with a “it’s not great, but we’ll look at it” would let them wiggle now. But having marched their supporters up the hill, they look in the Facebook comments like traitors if they back it, or look like traitors if they risk no Brexit by continuing to vote against.Richard_Nabavi said:
The trouble is that so many Tory MPs have trashed the deal and party activists have swallowed the nonsense wholesale, so if they now go ahead and reluctantly implement it it will be seen by many Tory voters and activists as at best a humiliating climbdown and more likely as a disgraceful act of betrayal.Sean_F said:
Voting through the WA would not be a disaster for the Tories. I doubt if a softer Brexit would hurt them much.Richard_Nabavi said:
There isn't one.IanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
No Deal would hurt them; Revoke would hurt even more.
It didn't need to be like that, but that is the logical consequence of the behaviour of many Tory MPs since November.
(*Well, one of. Amid stiff competition)0 -
Had this been part of the thinking of the government in the aftermath of the referendum, I think it would have stood a good chance, because it would have been a moderate compromise. However, in the past two years since the "Citizen of Nowhere" speech, the derision thrown at Remainers, coupled with the growing sense that the Leave campaign was a Russian funded con trick, has galvanized opposition to any kind of Leave without a second referendum.kjohnw said:Surely common market 2.0 is the only way now out of the conundrum we are in . It retains the benefits of EU membership and gives back control over agriculture and fishing and keeps us out of the political union . I know we have to compromise on freedom of labour but we do retain some get out in freedom of movement as I understand it . Does it have any chance ?
Meanwhile the inflexible incompetence of Theresa May has led to a backlash against the whole idea, and not merely from people who voted Remain last time. The problem Leavers now have is that it is not just the House of Commons that opposes "Hard/Clean" Brexit: the majority of the country does too,
So perhaps such a compromise might emerge, but I think not without another vote.0 -
Lidington telling Beckett her amendment means revocation or, only if EU agrees, a very long extension.0
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You'd expect it to follow a sigmoid curve - build slowly, accelerate to a very fast pace and then slow down. You could probably get a pretty good prediction of the final figure if you could track the numbers so far.Ishmael_Z said:
This purports to know that sort of thing:WhisperingOracle said:Re the petition, we really need someone who's good with figures and data - I think a user with Hamilton in their name was on the other day - to see how much it really is slowing down. It still seems to be managing about a million a day, which is I what I mistakenly thought it was doing last week, but a numbers brain may be able to shed some light on the data.
https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584
Hover over AVERAGE: 289 PER MINUTE and it gives you hourly and daily equivalents. I think it was about 600 per minute yesterday afternoon, in which case the rate has halved. I also think it's a bit academic - it has already produced all the impact it is going to have.0 -
In shorthand probably no. What it misses out is that there is debate as to whether revocation can be done by anyone other than the PM as part of Royal Prerogative. Effectively what he is saying is they would need to choose a new PM. And as we have seen that is something MPs on all sides are keen to avoid.El_Capitano said:Is Stephen Bush right here? https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/03/theresa-may-s-threats-mps-make-no-sense-all
"Ultimately the British constitution is a one-line document: if you have a parliamentary majority, you can do what you want. If MPs can cohere around an alternative plan they could appoint one of their number to negotiate with the EU, or even send a letter revoking Article 50 from the House of Commons rather than from the executive if they so desire."0 -
Well that won't scare half the Commons. Any sign those who might fear it believe it, and if they will take action to stop it or rather just start wailing and smashing their toys in protest (eg causing a GE) even though it helps no one?IanB2 said:Lidington telling Beckett her amendment means revocation or, only if EU agrees, a very long extension.
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If it's still adding a million a day, however - I'm very interested to see if it reaches 6 million by tomorrow - that decline to a stasis position is surely going to take a long time.Recidivist said:
You'd expect it to follow a sigmoid curve - build slowly, accelerate to a very fast pace and then slow down. You could probably get a pretty good prediction of the final figure if you could track the numbers so far.Ishmael_Z said:
This purports to know that sort of thing:WhisperingOracle said:Re the petition, we really need someone who's good with figures and data - I think a user with Hamilton in their name was on the other day - to see how much it really is slowing down. It still seems to be managing about a million a day, which is I what I mistakenly thought it was doing last week, but a numbers brain may be able to shed some light on the data.
https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584
Hover over AVERAGE: 289 PER MINUTE and it gives you hourly and daily equivalents. I think it was about 600 per minute yesterday afternoon, in which case the rate has halved. I also think it's a bit academic - it has already produced all the impact it is going to have.
I suppose it depends on the rate of decline - which is where we need our data expert ; or better access to what the data is.0 -
It's the only one that honours the referendum result. May's deal would be better thoughRichard_Tyndall said:
Yep that would be my position as well.bigjohnowls said:I would support No Deal over either Revoke or a 2nd Referendum
I dont want any of the 3 though
#CorbynsCustomsUnion for me.0 -
Cash at least has clearly realised the tide is going out on the ERG position. May's earlier dismissal of no deal has hit home.
Meanwhile Clarke challenges Labour on whipping the indicative votes.0 -
A master class in cognitive dissonance.Recidivist said:
I don't think it is like that, much as our love of symmetry leads us to want it to be true. If we revoke, where does that leave Brexit as a project? How do you go about campaigning for it? It wasn't exactly an easy sell last time. You might just about get away with it if there is no second referendum and you can say that you are fulfilling the 2016 result. But that is a diminishing asset. Speaking personally I no longer regard the result of that referendum as valid. Others may be more indulgent, but ultimately the time will come when it carries no power at all. I don't think anyone used the 1976 result to argue against Labour's manifesto commitment in 1983. So lets give it 6 years max.Casino_Royale said:
That applies to revocation as well.williamglenn said:
I don't think most people realise that if it goes through, politics will still be dominated by Brexit for the foreseeable future.Casino_Royale said:
Polling show it’s a compromise that most voters could live with as their 2nd choice.williamglenn said:
Why do you think they wouldn't get crushed under that outcome? The transition would just entail endless fractious trade negotiations, against a backdrop of the No Dealers saying it's a disaster because Brexit was betrayed, and Remainers saying it's a disaster because they didn't give people the option of revocation.Casino_Royale said:
I think any outcome other than May’s Deal and a slow transition crushes the Tories at the next election, whenever it is.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's probably the saddest thing about Brexit for me.Sean_F said:
One would not have thought he was a loon until fairly recently, though. I remember when Cameron was desperate to support him against his constituency association.TheScreamingEagles said:
Ludicrous hyperbole from Crispin Blunt, is he on poppers again?Scott_P said:
Rational and moderate Tory MPs who I respected have gone all mad on Brexit.
You are just as fanatical as Steve Baker and Mark Francois, just on the exact opposite side and with more creativity and intelligence.
And if there is another referendum there is very little chance of leave winning again. How many of their arguments still stand up? Precious few. And as we saw last Saturday, there is now a really determined opposition.
If we don't get Brexit now it is off the agenda. For ever.0 -
Thank you.Recidivist said:
I disagree with most of what you say, but you were right there. Having claimed 700,000 last time they simply had to claim a million whatever happened.Casino_Royale said:
Pre-planned spin. I laid that out on here before 10am on Saturday morning as well.Ishmael_Z said:
I wonder where they got the idea, if what you suggest is true.Casino_Royale said:
I never said anything of the sort.Richard_Tyndall said:
Although to be cruel, on those numbers Casino's 154 was closer than your 1 million.IanB2 said:
Certainly closer than Casino's 154Peter_the_Punter said:
My guess was about half a million, so not bad for an amateur.CarlottaVance said:
My numbers were credible and calculated the whole way through.
It’s just the PV mob didn’t want to hear it.
It’s too late now anyway. The million marchers headlines have been generated, and won’t change. Just as I feared.
"We sent London a million marchers..." I can picture the words painted on some form of public transport...
The organisers are very well advised by the masters, like Alastair Campbell.0 -
Fair enough. I missed that.Richard_Tyndall said:
I was joking CR. That is what the smiley means.Casino_Royale said:
I never said anything of the sort.Richard_Tyndall said:
Although to be cruel, on those numbers Casino's 154 was closer than your 1 million.IanB2 said:
Certainly closer than Casino's 154Peter_the_Punter said:
My guess was about half a million, so not bad for an amateur.CarlottaVance said:
My numbers were credible and calculated the whole way through.
It’s just the PV mob didn’t want to hear it.
It’s too late now anyway. The million marchers headlines have been generated, and won’t change. Just as I feared.0 -
Is Starmer just going to make political points or actually try and do something constructive. The front benches actual legal EU exit positions are a fag paper apart ffsake.0
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IanB2 said:
Cash at least has clearly realised the tide is going out on the ERG position. May's earlier dismissal of no deal has hit home.
Meanwhile Clarke challenges Labour on whipping the indicative votes.
Too little too late.0 -
The government is now effectively responding, not proposing.0
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Donald on the news suggesting his accusers (Clintons?) are guilty of treason.
Sounds like he's taking recent developments in his stride...
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If Mrs May's deal is really bad, it's perfectly rational to prefer to stay in the European Union for a few more years until a better deal becomes available.0
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Didn’t someone tip him as next president?Richard_Nabavi said:"Michael Avenatti, the former lawyer for Stormy Daniels, has been indicted on extortion charges."
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/michael-avenatti-to-be-charged-with-wire-and-bank-fraud.html
I guess an actual charge might be an hindrance?0 -
FFS, just have a second referendum and have done with it.
At the end of it, maybe everyone would be so bored and exhausted that they'd give up and accept the result. I don't think another referendum would mean "unity", as such, but there's surely a good chance it would mean resignation on the part of most of those on the losing side (except the most extreme).0 -
No it isn't, parliament is not going to restart the clock and spend another 2 years on this, it's not rational to pretend otherwise. The question is is it so bad remaining is better (for leavers - obviously continuity remainers would say any deal is worse than remaining)AndyJS said:If Mrs May's deal is really bad, it's perfectly rational to prefer to stay in the European Union for a few more years until a better deal becomes available.
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The danger with a second referendum is that it's likely the results in each area would become more polarised, with Remain areas becoming more Remain and Leave areas becoming more Leave. I'm not sure what the overall result would be.Danny565 said:FFS, just have a second referendum and have done with it.
At the end of it, maybe everyone would be so bored and exhausted that they'd give up and accept the result. I don't think another referendum would mean "unity", as such, but there's surely a good chance it would mean resignation on the part of most of those on the losing side (except the most extreme).0 -
That’s one job where I do think that gender differentiation is helpfulRichard_Nabavi said:
I keep having a double take when the Guardian refers to Stormy Daniels as a porn actor, thinking I must have missed a key episode of the story. Then I realise they mean actress.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hope no one backed him win the Dem nomination/Presidency in 2020.Richard_Nabavi said:"Michael Avenatti, the former lawyer for Stormy Daniels, has been indicted on extortion charges."
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/michael-avenatti-to-be-charged-with-wire-and-bank-fraud.html0 -
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Any referendum with Remain on the ballot should result in anarchyAndyJS said:
The danger with a second referendum is that it's likely the results in each area would become more polarised, with Remain areas becoming more Remain and Leave areas becoming more Leave. I'm not sure what the overall result would be.Danny565 said:FFS, just have a second referendum and have done with it.
At the end of it, maybe everyone would be so bored and exhausted that they'd give up and accept the result. I don't think another referendum would mean "unity", as such, but there's surely a good chance it would mean resignation on the part of most of those on the losing side (except the most extreme).0 -
I get confused between Stormy Daniels and Stormzy.Charles said:
That’s one job where I do think that gender differentiation is helpfulRichard_Nabavi said:
I keep having a double take when the Guardian refers to Stormy Daniels as a porn actor, thinking I must have missed a key episode of the story. Then I realise they mean actress.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hope no one backed him win the Dem nomination/Presidency in 2020.Richard_Nabavi said:"Michael Avenatti, the former lawyer for Stormy Daniels, has been indicted on extortion charges."
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/michael-avenatti-to-be-charged-with-wire-and-bank-fraud.html0 -
On the facts as disclosed, slightly surprised that the Nike lawyers didn’t report Avenetti to his bar licensing authority. There’s agressive litigation behaviour and there’s extortion.Charles said:
Didn’t someone tip him as next president?Richard_Nabavi said:"Michael Avenatti, the former lawyer for Stormy Daniels, has been indicted on extortion charges."
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/michael-avenatti-to-be-charged-with-wire-and-bank-fraud.html
I guess an actual charge might be an hindrance?0 -
Starmer is mostly lawyer's waffle; Owen Smith's intervention nails the key question of whether Lidington's commitments can be trusted if Letwin doesn't pass.
Starmer is a decent and intelligent guy, hamstrung by his party preventing him saying anything of worth. You wouldn't think our country's future hung in the balance.0 -
What do you base that on? Survation showed in its constituency level poll that the biggest switchers to Remain were the WWC in Wales, Northwest etc. It is the proseperous shire Leaver demographic that is more solid:AndyJS said:
The danger with a second referendum is that it's likely the results in each area would become more polarised, with Remain areas becoming more Remain and Leave areas becoming more Leave. I'm not sure what the overall result would be.Danny565 said:FFS, just have a second referendum and have done with it.
At the end of it, maybe everyone would be so bored and exhausted that they'd give up and accept the result. I don't think another referendum would mean "unity", as such, but there's surely a good chance it would mean resignation on the part of most of those on the losing side (except the most extreme).
https://www.survation.com/what-does-the-british-public-now-think-about-brexit/0 -
The HoC can’t do thatrottenborough said:
If the HoC takes control and goes for something that is in direct contrast to her government's policy, a GE is the only option.IanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
They have to fire the government
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Yeah, and it also showed the increase in support for Remain being lower than average in the very Remainy areas (though that could be a ceiling effect).Foxy said:
What do you base that on? Survation showed in its constituency level poll that the biggest switchers to Remain were the WWC in Wales, Northwest etc. It is the proseperous shire Leaver demographic that is more solid:AndyJS said:
The danger with a second referendum is that it's likely the results in each area would become more polarised, with Remain areas becoming more Remain and Leave areas becoming more Leave. I'm not sure what the overall result would be.Danny565 said:FFS, just have a second referendum and have done with it.
At the end of it, maybe everyone would be so bored and exhausted that they'd give up and accept the result. I don't think another referendum would mean "unity", as such, but there's surely a good chance it would mean resignation on the part of most of those on the losing side (except the most extreme).
https://www.survation.com/what-does-the-british-public-now-think-about-brexit/
Richmond and the City of London(!!) were projected to be the only places where Leave would score more than in 2016.0 -
Or the government steps up and runs with what the House comes up with. Assuming it does.Charles said:
The HoC can’t do thatrottenborough said:
If the HoC takes control and goes for something that is in direct contrast to her government's policy, a GE is the only option.IanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
They have to fire the government0 -
They won’t do that on principleIanB2 said:
Or the government steps up and runs with what the House comes up with. Assuming it does.Charles said:
The HoC can’t do thatrottenborough said:
If the HoC takes control and goes for something that is in direct contrast to her government's policy, a GE is the only option.IanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
They have to fire the government
The precedent would be awful for future good governance0 -
It's better to Remain with influence than have a Deal where we're told what to do by the EU without any input. That's true even for strong Leave supporters.kle4 said:
No it isn't, parliament is not going to restart the clock and spend another 2 years on this, it's not rational to pretend otherwise. The question is is it so bad remaining is better (for leavers - obviously continuity remainers would say any deal is worse than remaining)AndyJS said:If Mrs May's deal is really bad, it's perfectly rational to prefer to stay in the European Union for a few more years until a better deal becomes available.
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2nd ref isn't a substance issue ?!
Sweet Jesus0 -
Good governance went out the window some time back.Charles said:
They won’t do that on principleIanB2 said:
Or the government steps up and runs with what the House comes up with. Assuming it does.Charles said:
The HoC can’t do thatrottenborough said:
If the HoC takes control and goes for something that is in direct contrast to her government's policy, a GE is the only option.IanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
They have to fire the government
The precedent would be awful for future good governance
This thread has beenEXTENDED
but not here.
Letwin sounds a little nervous at the import of his speech.0 -
What precedent? A minority government can always be controlled with the threat of a VONC. This is the same thing really.Charles said:
They won’t do that on principleIanB2 said:
Or the government steps up and runs with what the House comes up with. Assuming it does.Charles said:
The HoC can’t do thatrottenborough said:
If the HoC takes control and goes for something that is in direct contrast to her government's policy, a GE is the only option.IanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
They have to fire the government
The precedent would be awful for future good governance0 -
NEW THREAD
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..0
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May this afternoon effectively said the Commons having voted against No Deal if it continued to oppose her Deal the only alternative would be a lengthy extension and contesting the EU elections.Charles said:
The HoC can’t do thatrottenborough said:
If the HoC takes control and goes for something that is in direct contrast to her government's policy, a GE is the only option.IanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
They have to fire the government
Hence Crispin Blunt called it 'the greatest capitulation of a British Governmemt since the fall of Singapore'0
