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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What four years of Govey as EdSec did to the teaching vote

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  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    He is at least known. While David Lidington would be a fabulous payday for me, I do think the country is entitled to have a Prime Minister that it has actually heard of.

    People have heard of Jean-Claude Juncker, and his current job will be finished soon.
    Suggesting Jean-Claude Juncker should be PM of the UK sounds like a step too far.

    Even for you.
    Who was the last foreign-born Prime Minister? Wasn't one of the early 20th Century PMs born in Canada? New Zealand-born Bryan Gould was an unsuccessful contender for the Labour leadership 40-ish years ago.
    Bonar Law was Canadian
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    MikeL said:

    Jury retired this morning to consider its verdict in trial of Duckenfield and others re Hillsborough.

    Seems surprising that there has been very little media coverage of the trial.

    Perhaps the media are under reporting restrictions?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Regarding Saturday's march, which was very impressive, it must be admitted: I can't help feeling that if the Labour politicians and activists who played such a big role in organising it had put half as much effort into campaigning for Remain in 2016, we wouldn't have been in this mess.

    Not just the Labour activists.
    Not just them, true, but they were the ones whose absence in 2016 really shifted the dial IMO.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic there was some interesting discussion of this at the weekend in relation to the London march which seemed to be largely comprised of middle class professionals who once would have been Tories and now aren't. Some of these statistics may well be down to the same tendency manifesting itself in the teaching profession.

    What I think is clear is that 9 years of very tight public spending, if not actual austerity in most cases, with cuts in real wages and benefits for those in the public sector have left a long tail legacy of dislike/hatred for the Tories which they are going to find genuinely difficult to overcome. My own guess is that the extent of that damage has been hidden by the complete ineptitude of Corbyn and that Labour under a credible, electable leader may well be set for a Blair style annihilation of the Conservatives who have never managed to get a solid majority despite their success with the economy as a whole.

    If this happens people will inevitably blame Brexit but I think the causes are much deeper. I hope sending Corbyn a get well soon card is on May's to do list. He is their only hope.

    It is as it was in the 1980's and 1990's.
    As was accurately diagnosed and described by Theresa May in her oft-misunderstood nasty party speech.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    TGOHF said:

    Nigelb said:

    TGOHF said:

    Speaking as a teacher, it appeared to me that Gove was allowed to be a complete loose cannon by Cameron, who didn't care about state education.

    Many of the issues we face now are as a result of his short term thinking and policymaking via headlines in the Telegraph. Very little was thought through, and we now have a recruitment disaster due to the fracturing and over complication of Initial Teacher Training routes by Gove.

    The obsession with constant qualification reform is a feature of all Education Ministers, but his attempt at a concurrent reform of GCSE and A Level made a lot of pointless work for people.

    On another note, the notion that teachers are all a load of raging marxists may be a favourite of the Daily Mail, but is not borne out by my experience in reality. I've known as many Tory teachers as I have Labour voters. I used to be a very woolly liberal on social policy, until I worked in safeguarding, and saw the behaviour of some adults (despite what I thought, I'd clearly led a very sheltered life until then). I also did some work with Halfon when he was Skills Minister, and was impressed by him.

    Teachers are still under the misapprehension that schools are for their benefit not parents.

    Teachers hated the switch from being assessed on "value add" rather than "level of attainment".

    As a parent , our primary school had rested on it's fat laurels for too long and got a mighty shock when OFSTED came a calling post Gove - the Head Teacher stood down and we got a far better replacement.
    So you believe schools are there primarily for the benefit of parents ?

    I was under the misapprehension that they were something to do with education.
    Parents require a service - their children to be educated.

    Parents pay for the service via taxation.
    No. Taxpayers pay for the service via taxation. Not all parents are taxpayers and not all taxpayers are parents. Those of us without kids don't generally mind because we are doing it for the kids and society as a whole. I'm sure as hell not doing it for the benefit of the parents.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    DavidL said:

    On topic there was some interesting discussion of this at the weekend in relation to the London march which seemed to be largely comprised of middle class professionals who once would have been Tories and now aren't. Some of these statistics may well be down to the same tendency manifesting itself in the teaching profession.

    What I think is clear is that 9 years of very tight public spending, if not actual austerity in most cases, with cuts in real wages and benefits for those in the public sector have left a long tail legacy of dislike/hatred for the Tories which they are going to find genuinely difficult to overcome. My own guess is that the extent of that damage has been hidden by the complete ineptitude of Corbyn and that Labour under a credible, electable leader may well be set for a Blair style annihilation of the Conservatives who have never managed to get a solid majority despite their success with the economy as a whole.

    If this happens people will inevitably blame Brexit but I think the causes are much deeper. I hope sending Corbyn a get well soon card is on May's to do list. He is their only hope.

    DavidL said:

    On topic there was some interesting discussion of this at the weekend in relation to the London march which seemed to be largely comprised of middle class professionals who once would have been Tories and now aren't. Some of these statistics may well be down to the same tendency manifesting itself in the teaching profession.

    What I think is clear is that 9 years of very tight public spending, if not actual austerity in most cases, with cuts in real wages and benefits for those in the public sector have left a long tail legacy of dislike/hatred for the Tories which they are going to find genuinely difficult to overcome. My own guess is that the extent of that damage has been hidden by the complete ineptitude of Corbyn and that Labour under a credible, electable leader may well be set for a Blair style annihilation of the Conservatives who have never managed to get a solid majority despite their success with the economy as a whole.

    If this happens people will inevitably blame Brexit but I think the causes are much deeper. I hope sending Corbyn a get well soon card is on May's to do list. He is their only hope.

    Yes, I’m expecting a drubbing in the not so distant future.

    The Conservatives have never looked totally secure in the last ten years, and i can feel the country moving Left in my gut, which the fundamentals in the underlying data suggest as well.
    It's a massive failure of May who has both a social and economic policy not really different, if not less market orientated than that of Brown and Blair. A heavily interventionist administration combining hectoring and regulation on both economic and social measures.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited March 2019


    Not sure I concur. It assumes the ERG think the Deal is just about acceptable provided May is gone.


    Yep. And the DUP are about a gnat's testicle away as well. As are a whole bundle of Labour MPs (less happily, but in preference to no deal).

    This whole crisis is meaningless posturing. Clearly the deal should pass (it won't).

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503

    He is at least known. While David Lidington would be a fabulous payday for me, I do think the country is entitled to have a Prime Minister that it has actually heard of.

    People have heard of Jean-Claude Juncker, and his current job will be finished soon.
    Suggesting Jean-Claude Juncker should be PM of the UK sounds like a step too far.

    Even for you.
    Who was the last foreign-born Prime Minister? Wasn't one of the early 20th Century PMs born in Canada? New Zealand-born Bryan Gould was an unsuccessful contender for the Labour leadership 40-ish years ago.
    I’m not aware of the details on that but they weren’t seen as distinctive countries in the early 20th century, but as very much British.

    And the UK and Canada shared a nationality code, even into the post WWII years.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875
    tpfkar said:

    DavidL said:

    He is at least known. While David Lidington would be a fabulous payday for me, I do think the country is entitled to have a Prime Minister that it has actually heard of.

    For me Lidington is May without the charisma and personal charm. As a stop gap to get us out of this mess just maybe but surely not as anything else.
    Lidington is a uniter and May is a divider. Whatever other qualities, we need something much more like him than her right now.
    Heaven knows I am no fan of May's but surely Lidington unites people in bafflement that such a no mark has risen so high in our affairs. What has he ever done or said to generate even a smidgen of interest? Gove is a deeply marmite politician but at least you get the impression that he came into politics to try and change things, for good or ill.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503

    Regarding Saturday's march, which was very impressive, it must be admitted: I can't help feeling that if the Labour politicians and activists who played such a big role in organising it had put half as much effort into campaigning for Remain in 2016, we wouldn't have been in this mess.

    It’s easy to forget that left-wing populism, and the election of Corbyn, easily preceded Brexit.

    The roots lie deeper.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Ah about time - from the Guardian live blog:

    Theresa May is considering asking MPs to vote on the withdrawal agreement separately from the political declaration, Labour has revealed.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    Ah about time - from the Guardian live blog:

    Theresa May is considering asking MPs to vote on the withdrawal agreement separately from the political declaration, Labour has revealed.

    At last, the PD is empty meaningless intentions, nothing else. It binds no one to anything.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    Regarding Saturday's march, which was very impressive, it must be admitted: I can't help feeling that if the Labour politicians and activists who played such a big role in organising it had put half as much effort into campaigning for Remain in 2016, we wouldn't have been in this mess.

    It’s easy to forget that left-wing populism, and the election of Corbyn, easily preceded Brexit.

    The roots lie deeper.
    Loads of people on the left, as well as on the right, consider that the system has failed for them.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    edited March 2019

    MikeL said:

    Jury retired this morning to consider its verdict in trial of Duckenfield and others re Hillsborough.

    Seems surprising that there has been very little media coverage of the trial.

    Perhaps the media are under reporting restrictions?
    I don't think so.

    There have been some reports - it's just they haven't been at all prominent.

    eg Jury retires today - it's on the Sky Sports website but I can't see any mention on BBC News homepage.

    Contrast with the Inquest and campaigning / decision to prosecute - several times this was the lead story on BBC TV News and website.

    It is very curious.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Ah about time - from the Guardian live blog:

    Theresa May is considering asking MPs to vote on the withdrawal agreement separately from the political declaration, Labour has revealed.

    Tbh I am not sure what that will achieve.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,500
    Totally O/t, but politics. Is there any news from the Newport W by election. Tory canvassers fleeing under a barrage of rubbish, for example?
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    Sean_F said:

    Regarding Saturday's march, which was very impressive, it must be admitted: I can't help feeling that if the Labour politicians and activists who played such a big role in organising it had put half as much effort into campaigning for Remain in 2016, we wouldn't have been in this mess.

    It’s easy to forget that left-wing populism, and the election of Corbyn, easily preceded Brexit.

    The roots lie deeper.
    Loads of people on the left, as well as on the right, consider that the system has failed for them.
    Despite not actually doing so....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic there was some interesting discussion of this at the weekend in relation to the London march which seemed to be largely comprised of middle class professionals who once would have been Tories and now aren't. Some of these statistics may well be down to the same tendency manifesting itself in the teaching profession.

    What I think is clear is that 9 years of very tight public spending, if not actual austerity in most cases, with cuts in real wages and benefits for those in the public sector have left a long tail legacy of dislike/hatred for the Tories which they are going to find genuinely difficult to overcome. My own guess is that the extent of that damage has been hidden by the complete ineptitude of Corbyn and that Labour under a credible, electable leader may well be set for a Blair style annihilation of the Conservatives who have never managed to get a solid majority despite their success with the economy as a whole.

    If this happens people will inevitably blame Brexit but I think the causes are much deeper. I hope sending Corbyn a get well soon card is on May's to do list. He is their only hope.

    It is as it was in the 1980's and 1990's.
    It’s better, and it’s worse.

    On the one hand, politics is more polarised on values now, not just the economic axis, and one party can’t dominate the whole mass media as New Labour did in the 1990s. That gives the Tories a level of base cover so they shouldn’t be wiped out.

    On the other hand, the under 40s have shifted further to the sociocultural left, and have little capital. Nor are we getting richer anywhere near as fast as we did in the late 20th century, so making the Conservatives job much harder.

  • On topic, the question is whether any other education secretary would have done better than Gove? Maybe teachers just get annoyed with the education secretary of whoever is in power.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    kinabalu said:

    He is at least known. While David Lidington would be a fabulous payday for me, I do think the country is entitled to have a Prime Minister that it has actually heard of.

    Liddo was layable in size at 6 yesterday.

    I hope you crystallized plenty.
    I had some very nice choices to make yesterday.

    How did you play it?
    I sold a bit, I kept more and then I bought a bit back at a longer price because I don't think we've heard the last of this idea. His anonymity is his advantage in the eyes of some big beasts I'm sure, along the same lines that young cardinals vote for old popes.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Ah about time - from the Guardian live blog:

    Theresa May is considering asking MPs to vote on the withdrawal agreement separately from the political declaration, Labour has revealed.

    Tbh I am not sure what that will achieve.
    Labour should [if they were intellectually honest] back the withdrawal agreement.

    The withdrawal agreement includes a customs union and everything else they're asking for. There's zero reason for them to object to it.

    Except of course they're opposing it because they hate the Tories and not because of anything to do with Brexit. Had Corbyn got the same deal they'd be backing it - and the Tories would be opposing it probably.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875

    Regarding Saturday's march, which was very impressive, it must be admitted: I can't help feeling that if the Labour politicians and activists who played such a big role in organising it had put half as much effort into campaigning for Remain in 2016, we wouldn't have been in this mess.

    What I have found remarkable is that Brexit has created a pro-EU movement in this country for the first time since the very early 70s. Both this march and the last one had large numbers of people seriously committed to the EU concept in ways I simply cannot recall in the last 40 years. As you say, had that happened before 2016 the result might have been very different. Instead we had the likes of Cameron going around saying that he understood why people disliked the EU but really, we were better in than out.

    A lot of it reminds me of the Indy ref. Better Together was led by people who were embarrassed to be British and mildly ashamed that we had a Tory government despite how Scotland had voted. Only in the final days with Brown and Ruth did we finally get some emotional drive for the Union. In the EU ref that emotional drive never came.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Is the Letwin amendment expected to pass?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    tpfkar said:

    DavidL said:

    He is at least known. While David Lidington would be a fabulous payday for me, I do think the country is entitled to have a Prime Minister that it has actually heard of.

    For me Lidington is May without the charisma and personal charm. As a stop gap to get us out of this mess just maybe but surely not as anything else.
    Lidington is a uniter and May is a divider. Whatever other qualities, we need something much more like him than her right now.
    Lidington is not on the spectrum. You can't say that for certain with TMay
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725

    Regarding Saturday's march, which was very impressive, it must be admitted: I can't help feeling that if the Labour politicians and activists who played such a big role in organising it had put half as much effort into campaigning for Remain in 2016, we wouldn't have been in this mess.

    You expected Labour to bail out the Conservatives from putting the country in this position. It's a typical attempt to whitewash the appallingly reckless behaviour of your party.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    DavidL said:

    On topic there was some interesting discussion of this at the weekend in relation to the London march which seemed to be largely comprised of middle class professionals who once would have been Tories and now aren't. Some of these statistics may well be down to the same tendency manifesting itself in the teaching profession.

    If this happens people will inevitably blame Brexit but I think the causes are much deeper. I hope sending Corbyn a get well soon card is on May's to do list. He is their only hope.

    DavidL said:

    On topic there was some interesting discussion of this at the weekend in relation to the London march which seemed to be largely comprised of middle class professionals who once would have been Tories and now aren't. Some of these statistics may well be down to the same tendency manifesting itself in the teaching profession.

    What I think is clear is that 9 years of very tight public spending, if not actual austerity in most cases, with cuts in real wages and benefits for those in the public sector have left a long tail legacy of dislike/hatred for the Tories which they are going to find genuinely difficult to overcome. My own guess is that the extent of that damage has been hidden by the complete ineptitude of Corbyn and that Labour under a credible, electable leader may well be set for a Blair style annihilation of the Conservatives who have never managed to get a solid majority despite their success with the economy as a whole.

    If this happens people will inevitably blame Brexit but I think the causes are much deeper. I hope sending Corbyn a get well soon card is on May's to do list. He is their only hope.

    Yes, I’m expecting a drubbing in the not so distant future.

    The Conservatives have never looked totally secure in the last ten years, and i can feel the country moving Left in my gut, which the fundamentals in the underlying data suggest as well.
    The gap in the market seems to be for an economically left but socially conservative party. The revamped SDP are that, but they don't seem to get much publicity as they have no parliamentarians.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253
    IanB2 said:

    Amendments from 10pm onwards

    10 pm!

    Tired, peevish and peckish, blood sugar all over the place, alcohol coursing through the veins, head full of conspiracies fueled by 15 solid hours in the bubble - what sort of condition is that to be in as you decide the future of the nation?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On topic, I wonder if OGH is making the same error (Though I note the final section is more complmentary toward Gove than the graphic) that he has made wrt Biden's chances in the Democrat race. I think Gove is rightly one of the frontrunners (Though too short at the recent 7-2 I laid on Betfair), both he and Biden are in a different place to where they were a few years ago.
    I'll confess that I'm not on Hunt at the longest odds I could be either as I mentally dismissed him with the fact he was a Tory health Sec. He too has a real chance now.

    It's evolving as Hunt v Gove, I sense. With Johnson just still possible.
    Don't rule out The SAJ
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253
    Sean_F said:

    Or Francois.

    Oh please stop it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    If May had any confidence she'd say its MV3 or No Deal as we won't be extending past the elections so make up your mind Parliament.

    But she doesn't, so she'll lose again. As she deserves to.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Ah about time - from the Guardian live blog:

    Theresa May is considering asking MPs to vote on the withdrawal agreement separately from the political declaration, Labour has revealed.

    Tbh I am not sure what that will achieve.
    Labour should [if they were intellectually honest] back the withdrawal agreement.

    The withdrawal agreement includes a customs union and everything else they're asking for. There's zero reason for them to object to it.

    Except of course they're opposing it because they hate the Tories and not because of anything to do with Brexit. Had Corbyn got the same deal they'd be backing it - and the Tories would be opposing it probably.
    Yes, makes sense.

    Would passing the WA but not the PD be sufficient for whichever bit of legislation requires the MV?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I think there's a problem with using that graph as a specifically anti-Give statistical set.

    It could just as easily be read as the impact of so-called austerity after Brown's years of splurging money to build a client vote. Plus, saying nice things in opposition is a lot easier than making tough choices in office.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    FWIW I think Jeremy Corbyn will live to regret his photoshoot with the statue of Eric Morecambe as the People's March was taking place.
  • I'd have said anyone who upsets the NUT and the teaching profession in general is probably doing a good job at Education.

    Gove's return to a focus on standards, exams and "traditional" core subjects was welcome in many homes across the country.

    That a tory wasn't welcomed by the payroll vote during a period of austerity, whilst trying to reform the system is hardly the headline of the century.

    Gove's role in making teaching such an unrewarding profession that nobody wants to do it has led to a recruitment crisis so bad that some of my local schools are now closing on Friday afternoons. This is very much less welcome in homes around this part of the country.
    Yes - it's appalling to have a graduate starting salary of £22/23k, annual pay progression, and 14 weeks of non-contact time a year. Boo hoo that there is some paper work and assessment of their value add to the children.

    It's a wonder anyone wants it as a vocation isn't it.
    You've clearly never tried teaching.
    This attitude really annoys me (Robin's not yours). There is a huge amount wrong with our education system and I do think it is now a very poor shadow of what it was in the past but that has bugger all to do with how much teacher's work.

    It is certainly not a career I would choose for an easy life nor great riches. Also of course I don't have the temperament. I would probably have throttled half a dozen of the little darlings before the first week was out
    One term of teacher training was enough to open my eyes to the reality of teaching and send me scuttling back to an easy life of self-employment.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Ah about time - from the Guardian live blog:

    Theresa May is considering asking MPs to vote on the withdrawal agreement separately from the political declaration, Labour has revealed.

    Tbh I am not sure what that will achieve.
    Labour should [if they were intellectually honest] back the withdrawal agreement.

    The withdrawal agreement includes a customs union and everything else they're asking for. There's zero reason for them to object to it.

    Except of course they're opposing it because they hate the Tories and not because of anything to do with Brexit. Had Corbyn got the same deal they'd be backing it - and the Tories would be opposing it probably.
    Yes, makes sense.

    Would passing the WA but not the PD be sufficient for whichever bit of legislation requires the MV?
    I imagine so. The WA is the only legally binding bit, the PD is a fluffy annex that we could cope without.

    So Labour will ensure the WA dies too. Despite backing it in theory.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    If May had any confidence she'd say its MV3 or No Deal as we won't be extending past the elections so make up your mind Parliament.

    But she doesn't, so she'll lose again. As she deserves to.

    Because more than any of us she had access to what the full impact of No Deal Brexit will be. My guess is she knows how damaging it would be for the country.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    If May had any confidence she'd say its MV3 or No Deal as we won't be extending past the elections so make up your mind Parliament.

    But she doesn't, so she'll lose again. As she deserves to.

    Her government it seems will fall in such a situation. Delaying Brexit further will be catastrophic failure for the conservatives.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Is the Letwin amendment expected to pass?

    If it does pass that will be yet another Etonian in the annals of Brexit: Cameron, Boris, JRM and now possibly Letwin. Brexit was won and lost on the playing fields of Eton.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253
    edited March 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    I've taken him down to a similar red to Rudd in that book, who is still my biggest loser.
    True green still due to Fred Done's generous terms at Totesport .

    I don't think you need to worry about Amber.

    Her 'coloured woman' faux pas probably scored her a few brownie points with the members but not enough to counter the fatal disadvantage of being a Europhile.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Ah about time - from the Guardian live blog:

    Theresa May is considering asking MPs to vote on the withdrawal agreement separately from the political declaration, Labour has revealed.

    Tbh I am not sure what that will achieve.
    Labour should [if they were intellectually honest] back the withdrawal agreement.

    The withdrawal agreement includes a customs union and everything else they're asking for. There's zero reason for them to object to it.

    Except of course they're opposing it because they hate the Tories and not because of anything to do with Brexit. Had Corbyn got the same deal they'd be backing it - and the Tories would be opposing it probably.
    Yes, makes sense.

    Would passing the WA but not the PD be sufficient for whichever bit of legislation requires the MV?
    I imagine so. The WA is the only legally binding bit, the PD is a fluffy annex that we could cope without.

    So Labour will ensure the WA dies too. Despite backing it in theory.
    Tbf May has hardly reached out to them since becoming PM has she?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Backing the withdrawal agreement but not the political declaration would be buying a pig in a poke. Why on earth should the opposition trust the government to take this forward sight unseen? Why, for that matter, would any MP?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503
    Sean_F said:

    Regarding Saturday's march, which was very impressive, it must be admitted: I can't help feeling that if the Labour politicians and activists who played such a big role in organising it had put half as much effort into campaigning for Remain in 2016, we wouldn't have been in this mess.

    It’s easy to forget that left-wing populism, and the election of Corbyn, easily preceded Brexit.

    The roots lie deeper.
    Loads of people on the left, as well as on the right, consider that the system has failed for them.
    To be fair, both May and Corbyn put their finger on a problem.

    It pisses people off when they’re busting a gut to make ends meet and others, who often have little stake in the country, flaunt the cash and the fact the rules don’t apply to them, and don’t give a shit who cares otherwise and sometimes insult them if they do.

    It’s the solution that’s hard.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    Sean_F said:

    Regarding Saturday's march, which was very impressive, it must be admitted: I can't help feeling that if the Labour politicians and activists who played such a big role in organising it had put half as much effort into campaigning for Remain in 2016, we wouldn't have been in this mess.

    It’s easy to forget that left-wing populism, and the election of Corbyn, easily preceded Brexit.

    The roots lie deeper.
    Loads of people on the left, as well as on the right, consider that the system has failed for them.
    To be fair, both May and Corbyn put their finger on a problem.

    It pisses people off when they’re busting a gut to make ends meet and others, who often have little stake in the country, flaunt the cash and the fact the rules don’t apply to them, and don’t give a shit who cares otherwise and sometimes insult them if they do.

    It’s the solution that’s hard.
    I think the BoE have a lot to answer for.
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729


    The happy couple. Does that look like a face asking for a slap?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Regarding Saturday's march, which was very impressive, it must be admitted: I can't help feeling that if the Labour politicians and activists who played such a big role in organising it had put half as much effort into campaigning for Remain in 2016, we wouldn't have been in this mess.

    The iron law of politics in Britain is that there is always a way to blame the Labour Party.

    But I'm not sure the organisers would be particularly Labour. The hardcore remainers always seem to despair of the Labour Party.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Or Francois.

    Oh please stop it.
    Maybe they'll bring back IDS, then.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875

    Backing the withdrawal agreement but not the political declaration would be buying a pig in a poke. Why on earth should the opposition trust the government to take this forward sight unseen? Why, for that matter, would any MP?

    Just maybe if they were promised an early election and it was recognised that it will be for the next government, not this one, to determine what our relationship with the EU will be? There is nothing in the WA, or for that matter in the PD, which would prevent a Labour government seeking a permanent CU, for example.

    I'm clutching at straws here, I recognise that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,268
    TGOHF said:

    Did you pay me for procreating ? If not then no.

    If you wish people to take such a transactional view of the process, you’d have to ask before the event.

    If I’ve misunderstood your point, then I can only apologise.



  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219

    Ah about time - from the Guardian live blog:

    Theresa May is considering asking MPs to vote on the withdrawal agreement separately from the political declaration, Labour has revealed.

    For the love of God please let Labour whip that one through
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Meeks, are you saying Corbyn isn't Wise?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    You expected Labour to bail out the Conservatives from putting the country in this position. It's a typical attempt to whitewash the appallingly reckless behaviour of your party.

    Following the 2015 election which made the referendum pledge operative, I thought Remain would win easily partly because it had the support of much of the Conservative Party and of all the opposition parties except UKIP. Obviously (before Corbyn, of course) I expected Labour and the trade unions to be a very large part of that, as no doubt David Cameron did. However, the completely unexpected promotion of Corbyn from obscure Marxist relic backbencher to party leader put paid to that expectation. Saturday's march shows how significant that was.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    I am puzzled as to why "aids", which should surely be "aides", is in capital letters in the lead, inevitably making people think of HIV. Surely PB is better than this?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503

    FWIW I think Jeremy Corbyn will live to regret his photoshoot with the statue of Eric Morecambe as the People's March was taking place.

    It’s not an accident.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    DavidL said:

    Backing the withdrawal agreement but not the political declaration would be buying a pig in a poke. Why on earth should the opposition trust the government to take this forward sight unseen? Why, for that matter, would any MP?

    Just maybe if they were promised an early election and it was recognised that it will be for the next government, not this one, to determine what our relationship with the EU will be? There is nothing in the WA, or for that matter in the PD, which would prevent a Labour government seeking a permanent CU, for example.

    I'm clutching at straws here, I recognise that.
    failure to agree a trade deal which seems incredibly likely will result in a permanent CU as part of the backstop.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    DavidL said:

    Regarding Saturday's march, which was very impressive, it must be admitted: I can't help feeling that if the Labour politicians and activists who played such a big role in organising it had put half as much effort into campaigning for Remain in 2016, we wouldn't have been in this mess.

    What I have found remarkable is that Brexit has created a pro-EU movement in this country for the first time since the very early 70s. Both this march and the last one had large numbers of people seriously committed to the EU concept in ways I simply cannot recall in the last 40 years. As you say, had that happened before 2016 the result might have been very different. Instead we had the likes of Cameron going around saying that he understood why people disliked the EU but really, we were better in than out.

    A lot of it reminds me of the Indy ref. Better Together was led by people who were embarrassed to be British and mildly ashamed that we had a Tory government despite how Scotland had voted. Only in the final days with Brown and Ruth did we finally get some emotional drive for the Union. In the EU ref that emotional drive never came.
    In the same way, the Scottish independence referendum revitalised the Scottish Conservatives, after years on the defensive.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Mr. Meeks, are you saying Corbyn isn't Wise?

    Does he bring you sunshine?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Backing the withdrawal agreement but not the political declaration would be buying a pig in a poke. Why on earth should the opposition trust the government to take this forward sight unseen? Why, for that matter, would any MP?

    The pig is in the poke because the EU refuses to put it anywhere else.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503

    kinabalu said:

    He is at least known. While David Lidington would be a fabulous payday for me, I do think the country is entitled to have a Prime Minister that it has actually heard of.

    Liddo was layable in size at 6 yesterday.

    I hope you crystallized plenty.
    I had some very nice choices to make yesterday.

    How did you play it?
    I sold a bit, I kept more and then I bought a bit back at a longer price because I don't think we've heard the last of this idea. His anonymity is his advantage in the eyes of some big beasts I'm sure, along the same lines that young cardinals vote for old popes.
    Thanks.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    DavidL said:

    Backing the withdrawal agreement but not the political declaration would be buying a pig in a poke. Why on earth should the opposition trust the government to take this forward sight unseen? Why, for that matter, would any MP?

    Just maybe if they were promised an early election and it was recognised that it will be for the next government, not this one, to determine what our relationship with the EU will be? There is nothing in the WA, or for that matter in the PD, which would prevent a Labour government seeking a permanent CU, for example.

    I'm clutching at straws here, I recognise that.

    That would still mean trusting Theresa May. And no-one is going to do that these days.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253

    Ah about time - from the Guardian live blog:

    Theresa May is considering asking MPs to vote on the withdrawal agreement separately from the political declaration, Labour has revealed.

    Eureka.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    IanB2 said:

    I am puzzled as to why "aids", which should surely be "aides", is in capital letters in the lead, inevitably making people think of HIV. Surely PB is better than this?

    OGH's phone's notorious predictive text, one imagines.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725

    You expected Labour to bail out the Conservatives from putting the country in this position. It's a typical attempt to whitewash the appallingly reckless behaviour of your party.

    Following the 2015 election which made the referendum pledge operative, I thought Remain would win easily partly because it had the support of much of the Conservative Party and of all the opposition parties except UKIP. Obviously (before Corbyn, of course) I expected Labour and the trade unions to be a very large part of that, as no doubt David Cameron did. However, the completely unexpected promotion of Corbyn from obscure Marxist relic backbencher to party leader put paid to that expectation. Saturday's march shows how significant that was.
    The majority of Labour voters voted Remain. It was the Conservative vote that failed to support the position of their own leader, and wasn't going to be swung by Ed Miliband or whichever generic non-Marxist Labour leader you imagine having made a difference.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253

    Backing the withdrawal agreement but not the political declaration would be buying a pig in a poke. Why on earth should the opposition trust the government to take this forward sight unseen? Why, for that matter, would any MP?

    The price must be an election.


  • The happy couple. Does that look like a face asking for a slap?

    Think I'd start on top of the head and work down.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219

    Backing the withdrawal agreement but not the political declaration would be buying a pig in a poke. Why on earth should the opposition trust the government to take this forward sight unseen? Why, for that matter, would any MP?

    The pig is in the poke because the EU refuses to put it anywhere else.
    The withdrawal agreement is the de facto minimum needed to withdraw from the EU. Even if we left without a deal some close variant would be required by the EU before trade talks began
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    A Prime Minister with political skills would have realised her deal is lost and would be taking the opportunity to make good on Lidlington's promise and let the government lead an indicative vote process.

    The fact that she has yielded the initiative and is potentially hours away from having MPs taking the initiative from her is surely confirmation that the weekend's plotters were right.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219

    Backing the withdrawal agreement but not the political declaration would be buying a pig in a poke. Why on earth should the opposition trust the government to take this forward sight unseen? Why, for that matter, would any MP?

    Labour have said they have no issue with the WA...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    The majority of Labour voters voted Remain. It was the Conservative vote that failed to support the position of their own leader, and wasn't going to be swung by Ed Miliband or whichever generic non-Marxist Labour leader you imagine having made a difference.

    The majority of Labour voters voted Remain, as you say. However, I think that majority would have been very considerably larger if the Labour leadership had been actively supporting Remain rather than (as is very clearly laid out in Tim Shipman's book) doing everything in their power to sabotage Will Straw's efforts.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    You expected Labour to bail out the Conservatives from putting the country in this position. It's a typical attempt to whitewash the appallingly reckless behaviour of your party.

    Following the 2015 election which made the referendum pledge operative, I thought Remain would win easily partly because it had the support of much of the Conservative Party and of all the opposition parties except UKIP. Obviously (before Corbyn, of course) I expected Labour and the trade unions to be a very large part of that, as no doubt David Cameron did. However, the completely unexpected promotion of Corbyn from obscure Marxist relic backbencher to party leader put paid to that expectation. Saturday's march shows how significant that was.
    The majority of Labour voters voted Remain. It was the Conservative vote that failed to support the position of their own leader, and wasn't going to be swung by Ed Miliband or whichever generic non-Marxist Labour leader you imagine having made a difference.
    I don't know whether an enthusiastic Labour campaign would have got Remain over the line.

    Looking at the petition numbers by constituency, I don't think my MP, Gavin Shuker, has any hope of holding his seat.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    FWIW I think Jeremy Corbyn will live to regret his photoshoot with the statue of Eric Morecambe as the People's March was taking place.

    Jeremy does not do regrets, especially when he is on the verge of seeing another one of his great political aims coming to fruition.

    There is actually an argument for saying that he and Nigel Farage are the most successful politicians of the last 30 years. And he more than Nigel. Not only is he going to get Brexit, he has also secured the far left's control of the Labour party.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    'ere we go
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Mrs May is up on BBC Parliament
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Gove is very bright but he is only good in small doses. He has to be shuffled every couple of years because it just takes it too far and doesn’t know when to stop.

    He also loves the drama and can’t help but plot.

    But, he achieved interesting, considered and helpful change at Education, Justice and Environment and also was behind Brexit too.

    You can’t deny he’s a haymaker.

    A lying cheating sneaky self seeking toerag more like.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Doesn’t common market 2.0 give us all the economic benefits of EU membership without the political stuff , and freedom of labour rather than freedom of movement . Is it too good to be true? Do we retain independent control over tax policy for example ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    This doesn't sound good, or convincing.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    "AIDS"? I presume you mean "aides"
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I think there's a problem with using that graph as a specifically anti-Give statistical set.

    It could just as easily be read as the impact of so-called austerity after Brown's years of splurging money to build a client vote. Plus, saying nice things in opposition is a lot easier than making tough choices in office.

    If you call investing in schools "splurging money to build a client vote" what term do you use for splurging money to build a client vote?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725

    The majority of Labour voters voted Remain. It was the Conservative vote that failed to support the position of their own leader, and wasn't going to be swung by Ed Miliband or whichever generic non-Marxist Labour leader you imagine having made a difference.

    The majority of Labour voters voted Remain, as you say. However, I think that majority would have been very considerably larger if the Labour leadership had been actively supporting Remain rather than (as is very clearly laid out in Tim Shipman's book) doing everything in their power to sabotage Will Straw's efforts.
    The Conservative vote for Remain would have been dramatically higher if Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Theresa Villiers and Penny Mordaunt hadn't lied their way through the campaign while holding positions of power.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    malcolmg said:

    Gove is very bright but he is only good in small doses. He has to be shuffled every couple of years because it just takes it too far and doesn’t know when to stop.

    He also loves the drama and can’t help but plot.

    But, he achieved interesting, considered and helpful change at Education, Justice and Environment and also was behind Brexit too.

    You can’t deny he’s a haymaker.

    A lying cheating sneaky self seeking toerag more like.
    I like him :)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    This is like listening to the automated message you get when you try to telephone BT
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    The majority of Labour voters voted Remain. It was the Conservative vote that failed to support the position of their own leader, and wasn't going to be swung by Ed Miliband or whichever generic non-Marxist Labour leader you imagine having made a difference.

    The majority of Labour voters voted Remain, as you say. However, I think that majority would have been very considerably larger if the Labour leadership had been actively supporting Remain rather than (as is very clearly laid out in Tim Shipman's book) doing everything in their power to sabotage Will Straw's efforts.
    The Conservative vote for Remain would have been dramatically higher if Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Theresa Villiers and Penny Mordaunt hadn't lied their way through the campaign while holding positions of power.
    That's also true. When have I ever said otherwise?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    oops no MV3
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    so.....
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Shes pulling the vote FFS
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    DavidL said:

    He is at least known. While David Lidington would be a fabulous payday for me, I do think the country is entitled to have a Prime Minister that it has actually heard of.

    For me Lidington is May without the charisma and personal charm. As a stop gap to get us out of this mess just maybe but surely not as anything else.
    Given she has no charisma or personal charm , that is bad.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    ah so Letwin if no MV3
  • TM just confirmed my point over the last few days

    If we extend for a referendum or GE we have to hold EU elections.

    Pity so many in the media have not picked up on this
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580



    The happy couple. Does that look like a face asking for a slap?

    Without passing judgement on the target themselves, I think the word you are looking for is 'Backpfeifengesicht'
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    PM- MV3 doesn't have enough support - but still hoping it might

    PM - doesn't welcome Letwin. Will oppose. But will provide government time for it.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    kjohnw said:

    Doesn’t common market 2.0 give us all the economic benefits of EU membership without the political stuff , and freedom of labour rather than freedom of movement . Is it too good to be true? Do we retain independent control over tax policy for example ?

    It always was freedom of labour, not movement.. Just we dont have the systems (or culture) to enforce it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    She is speaking way too quickly.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    Mr. Meeks, are you saying Corbyn isn't Wise?

    Does he bring you sunshine?
    Why do you think he will make More Come?


    … I'll get my coat.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Long extension it is then.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    PM- recognises the house will always oppose no deal.

    So a longer extension and EU elections would be the alternative.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Brexit seems to be effectively dead
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    I love you all really.
This discussion has been closed.