May 2nd GE can now be 100% ruled out - May would have to have announced today so as to put Motion on Order Paper for vote tomorrow to dissolve Parliament by midnight tomorrow.
We're still rangebound 1.30-33. Upside to 1.45-48 with a deal and, again, downside pick your number.
We're tested the downside over and over. Even in the worst scenario I'd suggest 1.28
Definitely less than that if No deal were to happen (which the markets have so far given a lowish probability to, so it hasn't been 'tested'). I agree with Topping that the upside could be 1.45-1.48 - certainly at least 1.40.
Maybe briefly, but the bottom line is that the £ is undervalued because of the cumulative insanity of our government. Sooner or later this must break on the upside.
Hopefully. But in the event of an accidental No Deal anything could happen.
The only upside of accidental no deal is the profit we'll be able to make by trying to buy £s at the bottom. The damage to the country will be progressive and insidious, but our currency will overreact on the downside straight away.
Yesss... I once though that about bank shares during the 2008/9 crash. Bought HBOS at a 50% discount to their peak. Not my best investment decision ever.
I am rather surprised by that. Throwing eggs at politicians at election time was for many years a common occurrence.Harold Wilson had quite a few thrown at him during the 1970 election.
On topic there was some interesting discussion of this at the weekend in relation to the London march which seemed to be largely comprised of middle class professionals who once would have been Tories and now aren't. Some of these statistics may well be down to the same tendency manifesting itself in the teaching profession.
If this happens people will inevitably blame Brexit but I think the causes are much deeper. I hope sending Corbyn a get well soon card is on May's to do list. He is their only hope.
On topic there was some interesting discussion of this at the weekend in relation to the London march which seemed to be largely comprised of middle class professionals who once would have been Tories and now aren't. Some of these statistics may well be down to the same tendency manifesting itself in the teaching profession.
What I think is clear is that 9 years of very tight public spending, if not actual austerity in most cases, with cuts in real wages and benefits for those in the public sector have left a long tail legacy of dislike/hatred for the Tories which they are going to find genuinely difficult to overcome. My own guess is that the extent of that damage has been hidden by the complete ineptitude of Corbyn and that Labour under a credible, electable leader may well be set for a Blair style annihilation of the Conservatives who have never managed to get a solid majority despite their success with the economy as a whole.
If this happens people will inevitably blame Brexit but I think the causes are much deeper. I hope sending Corbyn a get well soon card is on May's to do list. He is their only hope.
Yes, I’m expecting a drubbing in the not so distant future.
The Conservatives have never looked totally secure in the last ten years, and i can feel the country moving Left in my gut, which the fundamentals in the underlying data suggest as well.
The gap in the market seems to be for an economically left but socially conservative party. The revamped SDP are that, but they don't seem to get much publicity as they have no parliamentarians.
One of my closest friends has defected from the Tories to them.
I think I will vote for them next time if they stand a candidate. I suggested to one of their people they needed Farage to get some WOW factor, but apparently they are too far apart economically... they shouldnt stand against him if he ran though IMO
You prefer moronic cretins to real politicians then.
Not in the least. It's just we don't get many of the latter. whether in Scotland or out of it.
To be fair, Italy has a form of PR, and many of their politicians 'are not to be recommended'.
Italy's problems have nothing to do with its voting system. Opponents of PR always cite Israel or Italy, but this adds no more value than citing a whole host of stable European countries in its favour.
I think TMay has just very heavily implied that she would Revoke rather than allow No Deal, at the last minute (on the grounds that parliament has decided against)
I think TMay has just very heavily implied that she would Revoke rather than allow No Deal, at the last minute (on the grounds that parliament has decided against)
Long time since I posted here. (10 years plus). I have often read during those years. About Michael Gove at Education. Mrs MoanR was a teacher during those years. She strongly disapproves of bad language. However during the Gove years, myself and our children were frequently appalled by the obscenities that came out of her mouth about Gove. Children used to ask her: “Do you know what those words mean?” She has never reacted in the same way to anyone else.
There's gonna be a looooong extension, possibly into next year.
By the end we will get so bored we might just say Sod it, and forget about Brexit altogether.
I think the Remainers just won.
Leavers are hopelessly split down the middle. The purists are killing it for the rest of us.
Maybe it's best to see it as three very distinct choices: * Revoke and remain * Leave with the May deal * Leave without a deal
In such circumstances, revoke and remain may well be the most popular in the country.
This whole thing is absolutely insane.
Portillo said similar last Thursday.. it should come down to No Deal, or Revoke, although his parting shot was "the names of the MP's who voted to revoke will be in Hansardfor all to see"
There's gonna be a looooong extension, possibly into next year.
By the end we will get so bored we might just say Sod it, and forget about Brexit altogether.
I think the Remainers just won.
Leavers are hopelessly split down the middle. The purists are killing it for the rest of us.
Maybe it's best to see it as three very distinct choices: * Revoke and remain * Leave with the May deal * Leave without a deal
In such circumstances, revoke and remain may well be the most popular in the country.
This whole thing is absolutely insane.
Portillo said similar last Thursday.. it should come down to No Deal, or Revoke, although his parting shot was "the names of the MP's who voted to revoke will be in Hansardfor all to see"
It might not need a vote. Parliament has already voted against no deal and against the deal, so the PM has no real choice when faced with the cliff edge.
On topic there was some interesting discussion of this at the weekend in relation to the London march which seemed to be largely comprised of middle class professionals who once would have been Tories and now aren't. Some of these statistics may well be down to the same tendency manifesting itself in the teaching profession.
If this happens people will inevitably blame Brexit but I think the causes are much deeper. I hope sending Corbyn a get well soon card is on May's to do list. He is their only hope.
On topic there was some interesting discussion of this at the weekend in relation to the London march which seemed to be largely comprised of middle class professionals who once would have been Tories and now aren't. Some of these statistics may well be down to the same tendency manifesting itself in the teaching profession.
What I think is clear is that 9 years of very tight public spending, if not actual austerity in most cases, with cuts in real wages and benefits for those in the public sector have left a long tail legacy of dislike/hatred for the Tories which they are going to find genuinely difficult to overcome. My own guess is that the extent of that damage has been hidden by the complete ineptitude of Corbyn and that Labour under a credible, electable leader may well be set for a Blair style annihilation of the Conservatives who have never managed to get a solid majority despite their success with the economy as a whole.
If this happens people will inevitably blame Brexit but I think the causes are much deeper. I hope sending Corbyn a get well soon card is on May's to do list. He is their only hope.
Yes, I’m expecting a drubbing in the not so distant future.
The Conservatives have never looked totally secure in the last ten years, and i can feel the country moving Left in my gut, which the fundamentals in the underlying data suggest as well.
The gap in the market seems to be for an economically left but socially conservative party. The revamped SDP are that, but they don't seem to get much publicity as they have no parliamentarians.
One of my closest friends has defected from the Tories to them.
I think I will vote for them next time if they stand a candidate. I suggested to one of their people they needed Farage to get some WOW factor, but apparently they are too far apart economically... they shouldnt stand against him if he ran though IMO
I’d strongly counsel against that.
Farage is toxic. And, if he didn’t take over the party in short order, would flounce out bad mouthing everyone else in it.
Ken Clarke is wonderful isn't he - the Con manifesto was only issued halfway through the GE campaign when candidates were already in place and campaigning - and in any case he wasn't sent a copy of the manifesto so he can't be held accountable to it.
There's gonna be a looooong extension, possibly into next year.
By the end we will get so bored we might just say Sod it, and forget about Brexit altogether.
I think the Remainers just won.
Leavers are hopelessly split down the middle. The purists are killing it for the rest of us.
Maybe it's best to see it as three very distinct choices: * Revoke and remain * Leave with the May deal * Leave without a deal
In such circumstances, revoke and remain may well be the most popular in the country.
This whole thing is absolutely insane.
Portillo said similar last Thursday.. it should come down to No Deal, or Revoke, although his parting shot was "the names of the MP's who voted to revoke will be in Hansardfor all to see"
It might not need a vote. Parliament has already voted against no deal and against the deal, so the PM has no real choice when faced with the cliff edge.
She has. She can simply say No Revocation. That gives the Commons the option of choosing a government more to their liking, and that's what I would do in her position.
Ken Clarke is wonderful isn't he - the Con manifesto was only issued halfway through the GE campaign when candidates were already in place and campaigning - and in any case he wasn't sent a copy of the manifesto so he can't be held accountable to it.
So his party published a public manifesto and he didn't read it because it wasn't sent to him?
Having said that, I wonder how many MPs have actually read the withdrawal agreement...
There's gonna be a looooong extension, possibly into next year.
By the end we will get so bored we might just say Sod it, and forget about Brexit altogether.
I think the Remainers just won.
Leavers are hopelessly split down the middle. The purists are killing it for the rest of us.
Maybe it's best to see it as three very distinct choices: * Revoke and remain * Leave with the May deal * Leave without a deal
In such circumstances, revoke and remain may well be the most popular in the country.
This whole thing is absolutely insane.
Portillo said similar last Thursday.. it should come down to No Deal, or Revoke, although his parting shot was "the names of the MP's who voted to revoke will be in Hansardfor all to see"
It might not need a vote. Parliament has already voted against no deal and against the deal, so the PM has no real choice when faced with the cliff edge.
She has. She can simply say No Revocation. That gives the Commons the option of choosing a government more to their liking, and that's what I would do in her position.
She'd be bluffing if she said that and it would end with her doing a Tsipras and going back on her word.
Well, I ma totally confused. It seems as if May is promising both No Deal and an extended delay at exactly the same time. She had already lost all semblance of authority and now she has lost any notion of a strategy. She is totally at the mercy of events. Action is needed to remove her immediately.
I think TMay has just very heavily implied that she would Revoke rather than allow No Deal, at the last minute (on the grounds that parliament has decided against)
As I have been saying for months.
If May revokes it’s the end of the Tory party and a guaranteed Marxist government which would do more damage than a no deal exit
There's gonna be a looooong extension, possibly into next year.
By the end we will get so bored we might just say Sod it, and forget about Brexit altogether.
I think the Remainers just won.
Leavers are hopelessly split down the middle. The purists are killing it for the rest of us.
Maybe it's best to see it as three very distinct choices: * Revoke and remain * Leave with the May deal * Leave without a deal
In such circumstances, revoke and remain may well be the most popular in the country.
This whole thing is absolutely insane.
Portillo said similar last Thursday.. it should come down to No Deal, or Revoke, although his parting shot was "the names of the MP's who voted to revoke will be in Hansardfor all to see"
It might not need a vote. Parliament has already voted against no deal and against the deal, so the PM has no real choice when faced with the cliff edge.
She has. She can simply say No Revocation. That gives the Commons the option of choosing a government more to their liking, and that's what I would do in her position.
She'd be bluffing if she said that and it would end with her doing a Tsipras and going back on her word.
Why would it be a bluff? If Parliament wants to stop Brexit, then let them step up and install a government that will do so. It would help clarify things.
I think TMay has just very heavily implied that she would Revoke rather than allow No Deal, at the last minute (on the grounds that parliament has decided against)
As I have been saying for months.
If May revokes it’s the end of the Tory party and a guaranteed Marxist government which would do more damage than a no deal exit
The first part of that is true. Unfortunately the second part isn't - a no-deal exit not only would be a disaster in its own right, it would also guarantee a Marxist government which would compound the disaster.
I don't share the view myself, but I found it interesting this weekend visiting family and friends that every single one of them (from middle aged tory remainers and brexiteers to millenial lefties Labour and TIG types to more apolitical ones) took the viewpoint that May is doing as best a job as she can manage, she doesn't deserve the blame (who does deserve the blame got much more varied responses) and that no-one else Inc Corbyn would really do much better right now. The only one who wanted her gone was my no-dealer father funnily enough.
I think she is given a lot of credit by the public given just how uncompromising and tin eared she has been, but I do wonder if the tories should be thinking twice about jettisonning her. Shes probably the only reason they are holding up in polls. Kicking her out to put in Gove or Lidlington could see the tories lose any last goodwill from the public.
He is at least known. While David Lidington would be a fabulous payday for me, I do think the country is entitled to have a Prime Minister that it has actually heard of.
People have heard of Jean-Claude Juncker, and his current job will be finished soon.
Suggesting Jean-Claude Juncker should be PM of the UK sounds like a step too far.
Even for you.
Who was the last foreign-born Prime Minister? Wasn't one of the early 20th Century PMs born in Canada? New Zealand-born Bryan Gould was an unsuccessful contender for the Labour leadership 40-ish years ago.
Bonar Law
Who was so famous the title of his *autobiography* was “the unknown prime minister”
Parliament can't legally stop No Deal, but it can do a lot to make it impossible for the government on a practical level.
If Parliament votes for something on Wednesday, Theresa May will go along with it and challenge her party to sack her. If its something she disagrees with, she'll call an election.
Well, I ma totally confused. It seems as if May is promising both No Deal and an extended delay at exactly the same time. She had already lost all semblance of authority and now she has lost any notion of a strategy. She is totally at the mercy of events. Action is needed to remove her immediately.
I would not disagree but as with everything brexit who replaces her, how and what does it change
As SeanT said I suspect Brexit will now die through boredom rather than a dramatic revocation. We will agree to take part in Euro elections and move discussions to a Norway+ Brexit. Ultras will condemn this as a betrayal. Remainers will condemn it as being pointless and inferior to our current situation. Norway + will face a second ref which will be lost by Leave as their most motivated supporters won't be interested.
I think TMay has just very heavily implied that she would Revoke rather than allow No Deal, at the last minute (on the grounds that parliament has decided against)
On topic there was some interesting discussion of this at the weekend in relation to the London march which seemed to be largely comprised of middle class professionals who once would have been Tories and now aren't. Some of these statistics may well be down to the same tendency manifesting itself in the teaching profession.
If this happens people will inevitably blame Brexit but I think the causes are much deeper. I hope sending Corbyn a get well soon card is on May's to do list. He is their only hope.
On topic there was some interesting discussion of this at the weekend in relation to the London march which seemed to be largely comprised of middle class professionals who once would have been Tories and now aren't. Some of these statistics may well be down to the same tendency manifesting itself in the teaching profession.
If this happens people will inevitably blame Brexit but I think the causes are much deeper. I hope sending Corbyn a get well soon card is on May's to do list. He is their only hope.
Yes, I’m expecting a drubbing in the not so distant future.
The Conservatives have never looked totally secure in the last ten years, and i can feel the country moving Left in my gut, which the fundamentals in the underlying data suggest as well.
The gap in the market seems to be for an economically left but socially conservative party. The revamped SDP are that, but they don't seem to get much publicity as they have no parliamentarians.
One of my closest friends has defected from the Tories to them.
I think I will vote for them next time if they stand a candidate. I suggested to one of their people they needed Farage to get some WOW factor, but apparently they are too far apart economically... they shouldnt stand against him if he ran though IMO
I’d strongly counsel against that.
Farage is toxic. And, if he didn’t take over the party in short order, would flounce out bad mouthing everyone else in it.
Oh no we are not still saying Farage is toxic are we?! I lost count of the times I was told how big UKIP would be if only it wasnt for him... doesn't seem like it worked out that way
But he wont be anything to do with the SDP anyway, they are not Thatcherites, more like the kind of party Matthew Goodwin keeps saying people want, old school working class I'd say
I think TMay has just very heavily implied that she would Revoke rather than allow No Deal, at the last minute (on the grounds that parliament has decided against)
As I have been saying for months.
If May revokes it’s the end of the Tory party and a guaranteed Marxist government which would do more damage than a no deal exit
Ditto after no deal. Hence the dilemma.
Edit/ Mrs May admitting right now that no deal won't happen
Well, I ma totally confused. It seems as if May is promising both No Deal and an extended delay at exactly the same time. She had already lost all semblance of authority and now she has lost any notion of a strategy. She is totally at the mercy of events. Action is needed to remove her immediately.
Why are you confused? She's simply stating the bleedin' obvious, as indeed she has been for months. Admittedly she states it badly, but it remains true that there is only one deal on the table, and the alternatives are crashing out in chaos or not leaving at all.
There's gonna be a looooong extension, possibly into next year.
By the end we will get so bored we might just say Sod it, and forget about Brexit altogether.
I think the Remainers just won.
Leavers are hopelessly split down the middle. The purists are killing it for the rest of us.
Maybe it's best to see it as three very distinct choices: * Revoke and remain * Leave with the May deal * Leave without a deal
In such circumstances, revoke and remain may well be the most popular in the country.
This whole thing is absolutely insane.
Portillo said similar last Thursday.. it should come down to No Deal, or Revoke, although his parting shot was "the names of the MP's who voted to revoke will be in Hansardfor all to see"
It might not need a vote. Parliament has already voted against no deal and against the deal, so the PM has no real choice when faced with the cliff edge.
She has. She can simply say No Revocation. That gives the Commons the option of choosing a government more to their liking, and that's what I would do in her position.
She'd be bluffing if she said that and it would end with her doing a Tsipras and going back on her word.
Why would it be a bluff? If Parliament wants to stop Brexit, then let them step up and install a government that will do so. It would help clarify things.
It would be a bluff because she wouldn't go through with it. When it came to the 11th hour she would revoke.
I am rather surprised by that. Throwing eggs at politicians at election time was for many years a common occurrence.Harold Wilson had quite a few thrown at him during the 1970 election.
I think he actually physically attacked him.
Yup, he didn't lob an egg, he smashed an egg onto the side of Corbyn's head.
Think of it more as an assault with an egg in your hand.
I think TMay has just very heavily implied that she would Revoke rather than allow No Deal, at the last minute (on the grounds that parliament has decided against)
As I have been saying for months.
If May revokes it’s the end of the Tory party and a guaranteed Marxist government which would do more damage than a no deal exit
Ditto after no deal. Hence the dilemma.
Edit/ Mrs May admitting right now that no deal won't happen
I think a no deal with Boris as PM could beat Corbyn
As SeanT said I suspect Brexit will now die through boredom rather than a dramatic revocation. We will agree to take part in Euro elections and move discussions to a Norway+ Brexit. Ultras will condemn this as a betrayal. Remainers will condemn it as being pointless and inferior to our current situation. Norway + will face a second ref which will be lost by Leave as their most motivated supporters won't be interested.
That seems logical but still not convinced about the HOC agreeing to EU elections
I don't share the view myself, but I found it interesting this weekend visiting family and friends that every single one of them (from middle aged tory remainers and brexiteers to millenial lefties Labour and TIG types to more apolitical ones) took the viewpoint that May is doing as best a job as she can manage, she doesn't deserve the blame (who does deserve the blame got much more varied responses) and that no-one else Inc Corbyn would really do much better right now. The only one who wanted her gone was my no-dealer father funnily enough.
I think she is given a lot of credit by the public given just how uncompromising and tin eared she has been, but I do wonder if the tories should be thinking twice about jettisonning her. Shes probably the only reason they are holding up in polls. Kicking her out to put in Gove or Lidlington could see the tories lose any last goodwill from the public.
I suspect the Tories are doing well simply because Corbyn isn't an option for a lot of people. So nothing will change much in the polls until Corbyn is replaced
Well, I ma totally confused. It seems as if May is promising both No Deal and an extended delay at exactly the same time. She had already lost all semblance of authority and now she has lost any notion of a strategy. She is totally at the mercy of events. Action is needed to remove her immediately.
Why are you confused? She's simply stating the bleedin' obvious, as indeed she has been for months. Admittedly she states it badly, but it remains true that there is only one deal on the table, and the alternatives are crashing out in chaos or not leaving at all.
I am confused because I did not hear her say that. I heard her say we would not go to a No Deal as the House has already voted against it while also saying we would go to a No Deal if the House did not approve her deal. It could be that is not what she said or meant, but that is what I heard.
As SeanT said I suspect Brexit will now die through boredom rather than a dramatic revocation. We will agree to take part in Euro elections and move discussions to a Norway+ Brexit. Ultras will condemn this as a betrayal. Remainers will condemn it as being pointless and inferior to our current situation. Norway + will face a second ref which will be lost by Leave as their most motivated supporters won't be interested.
Yes - most people are bored to death with it and just want it to go away. And a long extension ultimately leading to remain is now the likeliest way of making that happen. Anecdotally a number of non-political friends who a few weeks ago were in the "let's get on with it and leave" camp are now in the "let's drop the whole idea" camp.
Don't think there ever any doubt who's side Theresa May was really on anyway...
As far as I can tell she's on her own side.
A normal person would have cracked up by now.
There has been no point in the last three months when I have understood what Theresa May was trying to do. She has spent the time trying to defibrillate a corpse. The time could have been better used looking for an alternative resolution. She should have stood down long ago.
Tell them that one of the first consequences of No Deal is an Irish Unity Poll for which she will legislate for (and is guaranteed support from Corbyn's Labour Party.)
Also she should say she takes on board the DUP's concerns about NI divergence from GB so she will legislate to enable same sex marriage and abortion in NI.
Well, I ma totally confused. It seems as if May is promising both No Deal and an extended delay at exactly the same time. She had already lost all semblance of authority and now she has lost any notion of a strategy. She is totally at the mercy of events. Action is needed to remove her immediately.
Why are you confused? She's simply stating the bleedin' obvious, as indeed she has been for months. Admittedly she states it badly, but it remains true that there is only one deal on the table, and the alternatives are crashing out in chaos or not leaving at all.
I am confused because I did not hear her say that. I heard her say we would not go to a No Deal as the House has already voted against it while also saying we would go to a No Deal if the House did not approve her deal. It could be that is not what she said or meant, but that is what I heard.
I think TMay has just very heavily implied that she would Revoke rather than allow No Deal, at the last minute (on the grounds that parliament has decided against)
She will never revoke.
She’d resign first.
Casino and I have been here before, Sean, and I made it two to one on Revoke if it's a head-to-head with No Deal . I stand by that still, but of course I'm implying only a 66% probability - no racing certainty.
I'd make it shorter but I'm begining to wonder whether May might be becoming a little unhinged. That Wednesday nite broadcast was really....well, odd.
There's gonna be a looooong extension, possibly into next year.
By the end we will get so bored we might just say Sod it, and forget about Brexit altogether.
I think the Remainers just won.
Leavers are hopelessly split down the middle. The purists are killing it for the rest of us.
Maybe it's best to see it as three very distinct choices: * Revoke and remain * Leave with the May deal * Leave without a deal
In such circumstances, revoke and remain may well be the most popular in the country.
This whole thing is absolutely insane.
Portillo said similar last Thursday.. it should come down to No Deal, or Revoke, although his parting shot was "the names of the MP's who voted to revoke will be in Hansardfor all to see"
It might not need a vote. Parliament has already voted against no deal and against the deal, so the PM has no real choice when faced with the cliff edge.
She has. She can simply say No Revocation. That gives the Commons the option of choosing a government more to their liking, and that's what I would do in her position.
She'd be bluffing if she said that and it would end with her doing a Tsipras and going back on her word.
Why would it be a bluff? If Parliament wants to stop Brexit, then let them step up and install a government that will do so. It would help clarify things.
It would be a bluff because she wouldn't go through with it. When it came to the 11th hour she would revoke.
The golden rule of William Glenn - as I’ve said before on here, more than once - is that whatever the scenario, circumstance, development or protagonist the answer is always inevitable Hard Remain.
Tell them that one of the first consequences of No Deal is an Irish Unity Poll for which she will legislate for (and is guaranteed support from Corbyn's Labour Party.)
Also she should say she takes on board the DUP's concerns about NI divergence from GB so she will legislate to enable same sex marriage and abortion in NI.
Can only assume the reason she hasn't. As I suggested earlier and was shot down. She has a heck of a lot of sympathy with their views.
Will that be enough to get the ERG and DUP to toe the line?
Would I be right in thinking that the only sure way to avoid no deal would be for the Government to be willing to revoke Art 50 regardless of whether parliament consents - consent not being required as it is government action to NOT change people's rights, and being in the EU and remaining therein by revoking, EU law trumps our law whatever parliament has already passed on the subject?
I think TMay has just very heavily implied that she would Revoke rather than allow No Deal, at the last minute (on the grounds that parliament has decided against)
On topic there was some interesting discussion of this at the weekend in relation to the London march which seemed to be largely comprised of middle class professionals who once would have been Tories and now aren't. Some of these statistics may well be down to the same tendency manifesting itself in the teaching profession.
If this happens people will inevitably blame Brexit but I think the causes are much deeper. I hope sending Corbyn a get well soon card is on May's to do list. He is their only hope.
On topic there was some interesting discussion of this at the weekend in relation to the London march which seemed to be largely comprised of middle class professionals who once would have been Tories and now aren't. Some of these statistics may well be down to the same tendency manifesting itself in the teaching profession.
If this happens people will inevitably blame Brexit but I think the causes are much deeper. I hope sending Corbyn a get well soon card is on May's to do list. He is their only hope.
Yes, I’m expecting a drubbing in the not so distant future.
The Conservatives have never looked totally secure in the last ten years, and i can feel the country moving Left in my gut, which the fundamentals in the underlying data suggest as well.
The gap in the market seems to be for an economically left but socially conservative party. The revamped SDP are that, but they don't seem to get much publicity as they have no parliamentarians.
One of my closest friends has defected from the Tories to them.
I think I will vote for them next time if they stand a candidate. I suggested to one of their people they needed Farage to get some WOW factor, but apparently they are too far apart economically... they shouldnt stand against him if he ran though IMO
I’d strongly counsel against that.
Farage is toxic. And, if he didn’t take over the party in short order, would flounce out bad mouthing everyone else in it.
Oh no we are not still saying Farage is toxic are we?! I lost count of the times I was told how big UKIP would be if only it wasnt for him... doesn't seem like it worked out that way
But he wont be anything to do with the SDP anyway, they are not Thatcherites, more like the kind of party Matthew Goodwin keeps saying people want, old school working class I'd say
Things have changed since peak UKIP in 2012-2014, mate.
Tell them that one of the first consequences of No Deal is an Irish Unity Poll for which she will legislate for (and is guaranteed support from Corbyn's Labour Party.)
Also she should say she takes on board the DUP's concerns about NI divergence from GB so she will legislate to enable same sex marriage and abortion in NI.
Quite. Although doesn't an Irish Unity poll have to be heldin the RoI at he same time?
Don't think there ever any doubt who's side Theresa May was really on anyway...
As far as I can tell she's on her own side.
A normal person would have cracked up by now.
There has been no point in the last three months when I have understood what Theresa May was trying to do. She has spent the time trying to defibrillate a corpse. The time could have been better used looking for an alternative resolution. She should have stood down long ago.
She has been trying to get her deal through parliament I mean it is such an innocuous simple thing - money, citizens, backstop - but for reasons of perfectly understandable ideology and political expediency too many MPs are rejecting it.
Which is a shame because as it stands it is the only sensible and coherent way forward. As, to be fair to her, she keeps on saying.
She might have sown the seeds for this mess two years ago but now that we are where we are she appears to be the lone voice of reason.
On topic there was some interesting discussion of this at the weekend in relation to the London march which seemed to be largely comprised of middle class professionals who once would have been Tories and now aren't. Some of these statistics may well be down to the same tendency manifesting itself in the teaching profession.
If this happens people will inevitably blame Brexit but I think the causes are much deeper. I hope sending Corbyn a get well soon card is on May's to do list. He is their only hope.
On topic there was some interesting discussion of this at the weekend in relation to the London march which seemed to be largely comprised of middle class professionals who once would have been Tories and now aren't. Some of these statistics may well be down to the same tendency manifesting itself in the teaching profession.
If this happens people will inevitably blame Brexit but I think the causes are much deeper. I hope sending Corbyn a get well soon card is on May's to do list. He is their only hope.
Yes, I’m expecting a drubbing in the not so distant future.
The Conservatives have never looked totally secure in the last ten years, and i can feel the country moving Left in my gut, which the fundamentals in the underlying data suggest as well.
The gap in the market seems to be for an economically left but socially conservative party. The revamped SDP are that, but they don't seem to get much publicity as they have no parliamentarians.
One of my closest friends has defected from the Tories to them.
I think I will vote for them next time if they stand a candidate. I suggested to one of their people they needed Farage to get some WOW factor, but apparently they are too far apart economically... they shouldnt stand against him if he ran though IMO
I’d strongly counsel against that.
Farage is toxic. And, if he didn’t take over the party in short order, would flounce out bad mouthing everyone else in it.
Oh no we are not still saying Farage is toxic are we?! I lost count of the times I was told how big UKIP would be if only it wasnt for him... doesn't seem like it worked out that way
But he wont be anything to do with the SDP anyway, they are not Thatcherites, more like the kind of party Matthew Goodwin keeps saying people want, old school working class I'd say
Things have changed since peak UKIP in 2012-2014, mate.
There's gonna be a looooong extension, possibly into next year.
By the end we will get so bored we might just say Sod it, and forget about Brexit altogether.
I think the Remainers just won.
Leavers are hopelessly split down the middle. The purists are killing it for the rest of us.
Maybe it's best to see it as three very distinct choices: * Revoke and remain * Leave with the May deal * Leave without a deal
In such circumstances, revoke and remain may well be the most popular in the country.
This whole thing is absolutely insane.
Portillo said similar last Thursday.. it should come down to No Deal, or Revoke, although his parting shot was "the names of the MP's who voted to revoke will be in Hansardfor all to see"
It might not need a vote. Parliament has already voted against no deal and against the deal, so the PM has no real choice when faced with the cliff edge.
She has. She can simply say No Revocation. That gives the Commons the option of choosing a government more to their liking, and that's what I would do in her position.
She'd be bluffing if she said that and it would end with her doing a Tsipras and going back on her word.
Why would it be a bluff? If Parliament wants to stop Brexit, then let them step up and install a government that will do so. It would help clarify things.
It would be a bluff because she wouldn't go through with it. When it came to the 11th hour she would revoke.
One can always make the mistake of thinking that someone else will do what one would do.
There are no circumstances in which I would revoke, so I'd just say "over to you."
Well, I ma totally confused. It seems as if May is promising both No Deal and an extended delay at exactly the same time. She had already lost all semblance of authority and now she has lost any notion of a strategy. She is totally at the mercy of events. Action is needed to remove her immediately.
I would not disagree but as with everything brexit who replaces her, how and what does it change
Someone is surely going to have to take one for the team: someone who has no long-term leadership ambitions, someone who is capable of putting the country first. From here that must mean one of two things: 1. Reaching across to Labour MPs and getting a deal done to ensure Brexit by 22nd May. 2. A long extension so that there can be a general election that will hopefully break the deadlock. If we are to avoid a No Deal Brexit - which over 400 MPs have said they want to do - these are now the two realistic choices. It goes without saying, of course, that this will not happen.
Tell them that one of the first consequences of No Deal is an Irish Unity Poll for which she will legislate for (and is guaranteed support from Corbyn's Labour Party.)
Also she should say she takes on board the DUP's concerns about NI divergence from GB so she will legislate to enable same sex marriage and abortion in NI.
Can only assume the reason she hasn't. As I suggested earlier and was shot down. She has a heck of a lot of sympathy with their views.
She really doesn't.
She was the Home Secretary that enacted same sex marriage in England & Wales.
One of the highlights for me of GE2017 was when Andrew Marr asked her if she thought 'gay sex was a sin' a la Tim Farron. She said no, I think he was expecting answer from the daughter of a CoE vicar.
Surely she has to resign now , she has failed the country her time is up. How can she carry on like this . There will be riots in the streets if brexit is betrayed . A new leader who will implement the referendum is needed .
TM the destroyer of the Tory Party . Corbyns secret asset
On topic there was some interesting discussion of this at the weekend in relation to the London march which seemed to be largely comprised of middle class professionals who once would have been Tories and now aren't. Some of these statistics may well be down to the same tendency manifesting itself in the teaching profession.
If this happens people will inevitably blame Brexit but I think the causes are much deeper. I hope sending Corbyn a get well soon card is on May's to do list. He is their only hope.
If this happens people will inevitably blame Brexit but I think the causes are much deeper. I hope sending Corbyn a get well soon card is on May's to do list. He is their only hope.
Yes, I’m expecting a drubbing in the not so distant future.
The Conservatives have never looked totally secure in the last ten years, and i can feel the country moving Left in my gut, which the fundamentals in the underlying data suggest as well.
The gap in the market seems to be for an economically left but socially conservative party. The revamped SDP are that, but they don't seem to get much publicity as they have no parliamentarians.
One of my closest friends has defected from the Tories to them.
I think I will vote for them next time if they stand a candidate. I suggested to one of their people they needed Farage to get some WOW factor, but apparently they are too far apart economically... they shouldnt stand against him if he ran though IMO
I’d strongly counsel against that.
Farage is toxic. And, if he didn’t take over the party in short order, would flounce out bad mouthing everyone else in it.
Oh no we are not still saying Farage is toxic are we?! I lost count of the times I was told how big UKIP would be if only it wasnt for him... doesn't seem like it worked out that way
But he wont be anything to do with the SDP anyway, they are not Thatcherites, more like the kind of party Matthew Goodwin keeps saying people want, old school working class I'd say
Things have changed since peak UKIP in 2012-2014, mate.
When the facts change you have to reassess.
I agree he isnt a good fit for the SDP, but if we revoke I reckon he could win a seat as an Independent.
Comments
Depends who takes over from Theresa May and whether they can achieve a majority government for their version of Brexit in any future general election?
https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-47693115
Must be a very short and confusing film....
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1110212031918063616
I presume you are talking about the IPL?
Only because the Leavers refused to accept and lead their victory.
Utterly bloody pointless and dim.
* Revoke and remain
* Leave with the May deal
* Leave without a deal
In such circumstances, revoke and remain may well be the most popular in the country.
This whole thing is absolutely insane.
I have often read during those years.
About Michael Gove at Education. Mrs MoanR was a teacher during those years.
She strongly disapproves of bad language. However during the Gove years, myself and our children were frequently appalled by the obscenities that came out of her mouth about Gove. Children used to ask her: “Do you know what those words mean?” She has never reacted in the same way to anyone else.
If Brexit does totally fail one upside is that it should put off Scottish Independence for a bit.
I can’t imagine floating voters tolerating much frothing rhetoric for a bit.
Farage is toxic. And, if he didn’t take over the party in short order, would flounce out bad mouthing everyone else in it.
Having said that, I wonder how many MPs have actually read the withdrawal agreement...
I think she is given a lot of credit by the public given just how uncompromising and tin eared she has been, but I do wonder if the tories should be thinking twice about jettisonning her. Shes probably the only reason they are holding up in polls. Kicking her out to put in Gove or Lidlington could see the tories lose any last goodwill from the public.
Who was so famous the title of his *autobiography* was “the unknown prime minister”
If Parliament votes for something on Wednesday, Theresa May will go along with it and challenge her party to sack her. If its something she disagrees with, she'll call an election.
She’d resign first.
But he wont be anything to do with the SDP anyway, they are not Thatcherites, more like the kind of party Matthew Goodwin keeps saying people want, old school working class I'd say
Edit/ Mrs May admitting right now that no deal won't happen
Think of it more as an assault with an egg in your hand.
https://twitter.com/montie/status/1110206412267966464
Many MPs seem to have missed that part of the WA !
Tell them that one of the first consequences of No Deal is an Irish Unity Poll for which she will legislate for (and is guaranteed support from Corbyn's Labour Party.)
Also she should say she takes on board the DUP's concerns about NI divergence from GB so she will legislate to enable same sex marriage and abortion in NI.
1) Need to make a decision
2) Cannot pass the blame to someone else..
I'd make it shorter but I'm begining to wonder whether May might be becoming a little unhinged. That Wednesday nite broadcast was really....well, odd.
When the facts change you have to reassess.
Although doesn't an Irish Unity poll have to be heldin the RoI at he same time?
Which is a shame because as it stands it is the only sensible and coherent way forward. As, to be fair to her, she keeps on saying.
She might have sown the seeds for this mess two years ago but now that we are where we are she appears to be the lone voice of reason.
There are no circumstances in which I would revoke, so I'd just say "over to you."
1. Reaching across to Labour MPs and getting a deal done to ensure Brexit by 22nd May.
2. A long extension so that there can be a general election that will hopefully break the deadlock.
If we are to avoid a No Deal Brexit - which over 400 MPs have said they want to do - these are now the two realistic choices. It goes without saying, of course, that this will not happen.
She was the Home Secretary that enacted same sex marriage in England & Wales.
One of the highlights for me of GE2017 was when Andrew Marr asked her if she thought 'gay sex was a sin' a la Tim Farron. She said no, I think he was expecting answer from the daughter of a CoE vicar.
TM the destroyer of the Tory Party . Corbyns secret asset
There's a poll from Opinium which I don't think was reported.
Con 36%, Lab 35%, UKIP 9%, Lib Dem 7%, Others 13%.
Remain vs Leave with May's Deal is 45% to 37%.