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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What four years of Govey as EdSec did to the teaching vote

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  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Don't think there ever any doubt who's side Theresa May was really on anyway...
    As far as I can tell she's on her own side.
    A normal person would have cracked up by now.
    There has been no point in the last three months when I have understood what Theresa May was trying to do. She has spent the time trying to defibrillate a corpse. The time could have been better used looking for an alternative resolution. She should have stood down long ago.
    She has been trying to get her deal through parliament I mean it is such an innocuous simple thing - money, citizens, backstop - but for reasons of perfectly understandable ideology and political expediency too many MPs are rejecting it.

    Which is a shame because as it stands it is the only sensible and coherent way forward. As, to be fair to her, she keeps on saying.

    She might have sown the seeds for this mess two years ago but now that we are where we are she appears to be the lone voice of reason.
    Yep I agree with that. But given that she did make such a mess of things early on and that she has clearly lost the confidence of pretty much everyone in the country, she really should take that final step and accept she will stand down if that is what it takes to get her deal through. The idea of her tin ear being in charge of the trade negotiations for the next two years is horrendous.
    Yes the trust has gone; the two issues should be separate but I appreciate they aren't.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    I've been out, but are people who have steadfastedly refused to pass a Brexit deal really condemning May for not passing Brexit yet, and doing what parliament wants in not no dealing?

    I don't know what these people even want anymore.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042

    "Michael Avenatti, the former lawyer for Stormy Daniels, has been indicted on extortion charges."

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/michael-avenatti-to-be-charged-with-wire-and-bank-fraud.html

    Hope no one backed him win the Dem nomination/Presidency in 2020.
    I keep having a double take when the Guardian refers to Stormy Daniels as a porn actor, thinking I must have missed a key episode of the story. Then I realise they mean actress.
    Betraying your inner gammon there Mr N.
  • It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    I start a new job this May, I have also I have lot of tickets to the world cup and Ashes.

    Don't ruin my summer Mrs May.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    I don't think so. It risks a Corbyn government and it would split the Tories down the middle, probably for ever
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    SeanT said:

    algarkirk said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    The only way TMay can personally "take No Deal away" is either by promising something she cannot necessarily deliver: a General Election or a new Referendum - or by Revoking.

    On that logic, she IS implying that she would Revoke, at the 11th hour, if necessary (and then resign?)

    I can't see any other way to avoid No Deal.
    I think that must be right. However, TM does not by now have a track record of reliably sticking to her commitments and promises so while it might be true that ultimately she will use her prerogative to revoke, she might also change her mind.

    Revoking can be dressed up as deferring of course.

    I don't think that's sellable. Revoke is just a Deferral? Nah. It would be seen as Revoke and Remain, which is fair, as that would almost certainly be the result.

    That's why, if TMay did do it, I think she'd have to resign immediately after.

    Put it another way, in the next week or two TMay is going to have to do something she has consistently vowed not to do: allow No Deal, allow a referendum and extend, call a GE and extend, accept some new soft Deal that crosses all her red lines, or Revoke.


    Any one of these will destroy her career, some will destroy her career, or her party, or her country, or all three.
    Outright revocation destroys her career, her party and any residual trust in democracy in this country. Otherwise not so bad.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    Put it another way, in the next week or two TMay is going to have to do something she has consistently vowed not to do: allow No Deal, allow a referendum and extend, call a GE and extend, accept some new soft Deal that crosses all her red lines, or Revoke.


    Any one of these will destroy her career, some will destroy her career, or her party, or her country, or all three.

    https://twitter.com/NinaDSchick/status/1110223398288928768
    Hmm, I fear Mr Allen Green is making a logical error there. He hasn't considered the strong possibility that parliament rules out Revoke as well.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,726

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    "Michael Avenatti, the former lawyer for Stormy Daniels, has been indicted on extortion charges."

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/michael-avenatti-to-be-charged-with-wire-and-bank-fraud.html

    Hope no one backed him win the Dem nomination/Presidency in 2020.
    I keep having a double take when the Guardian refers to Stormy Daniels as a porn actor, thinking I must have missed a key episode of the story. Then I realise they mean actress.
    Betraying your inner gammon there Mr N.
    It used to be called speaking the English language.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Priceless. I hope somebody is putting together an anthology of Brexit hubris. It should be compulsory for aspiring MPs to study it in future.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    There is now way the Cons can allow a GE with Mrs May in charge - would be a disaster.

    She isn't taking the hint - she needs to go now.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    There isn't one.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2019
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Don't think there ever any doubt who's side Theresa May was really on anyway...
    As far as I can tell she's on her own side.
    A normal person would have cracked up by now.
    There has been no point in the last three months when I have understood what Theresa May was trying to do. She has spent the time trying to defibrillate a corpse. The time could have been better used looking for an alternative resolution. She should have stood down long ago.
    She has been trying to get her deal through parliament I mean it is such an innocuous simple thing - money, citizens, backstop - but for reasons of perfectly understandable ideology and political expediency too many MPs are rejecting it.

    Which is a shame because as it stands it is the only sensible and coherent way forward. As, to be fair to her, she keeps on saying.

    She might have sown the seeds for this mess two years ago but now that we are where we are she appears to be the lone voice of reason.
    Yep I agree with that. But given that she did make such a mess of things early on and that she has clearly lost the confidence of pretty much everyone in the country, she really should take that final step and accept she will stand down if that is what it takes to get her deal through. The idea of her tin ear being in charge of the trade negotiations for the next two years is horrendous.
    Yes the trust has gone; the two issues should be separate but I appreciate they aren't.
    Is it ridiculous to think that history will see Mrs May as the only grown up in the House?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    Priceless. I hope somebody is putting together an anthology of Brexit hubris. It should be compulsory for aspiring MPs to study it in future.
    Somebody will be.

    During the public inquiry into this policy catastrophe.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    Good outcomes

    1) No deal Brexit.

    2) 6 month extension + new PM

    Not good outcomes

    3) Retaining Mrs May

    4) Revoking

    5) 2nd referendum


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875

    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    There isn't one.
    The least bad option remains the deal. Which is why Labour won't support it of course.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories?
    Well quite. That they appear dead set on choosing what I'd regard as the most damanging for them, a GE, is one of the more baffling debates going on right now.
    Even rabble rousers like Guido have been trying to tell no dealers this for bloody ages, and they still act surprised when it happens. Can they not see three feet in front of their noses (politically)?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219

    "Michael Avenatti, the former lawyer for Stormy Daniels, has been indicted on extortion charges."

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/michael-avenatti-to-be-charged-with-wire-and-bank-fraud.html

    One long odds bet on US POTUS that won't come in now @:)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2019
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    There isn't one.
    The least bad option remains the deal. Which is why Labour won't support it of course.
    Yep, although Boris and the loons have contrived to make even that least-bad option still a disaster for the party.
  • IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    Not if May runs the campaign.

    I'm not sure the party would let her, though. If it looks likely that there will be a GE, she'll be dumped. A change of leader and a change of emphasis might work, particularly with Corbyn opposite.
  • isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Don't think there ever any doubt who's side Theresa May was really on anyway...
    As far as I can tell she's on her own side.
    A normal person would have cracked up by now.
    There has been no point in the last three months when I have understood what Theresa May was trying to do. She has spent the time trying to defibrillate a corpse. The time could have been better used looking for an alternative resolution. She should have stood down long ago.
    She has been trying to get her deal through parliament I mean it is such an innocuous simple thing - money, citizens, backstop - but for reasons of perfectly understandable ideology and political expediency too many MPs are rejecting it.

    Which is a shame because as it stands it is the only sensible and coherent way forward. As, to be fair to her, she keeps on saying.

    She might have sown the seeds for this mess two years ago but now that we are where we are she appears to be the lone voice of reason.
    Yep I agree with that. But given that she did make such a mess of things early on and that she has clearly lost the confidence of pretty much everyone in the country, she really should take that final step and accept she will stand down if that is what it takes to get her deal through. The idea of her tin ear being in charge of the trade negotiations for the next two years is horrendous.
    Yes the trust has gone; the two issues should be separate but I appreciate they aren't.
    Is it ridiculous to think that history will see Mrs May as the only grown up in the House?
    I think that may well be the case
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited March 2019
    eek said:

    kjohnw said:

    What is the chances now of the erg and dup trying to no confidence the government and force a General Election

    Why would the DUP give up their only power in decades and the additional pork that power is given their constituents in Northern Ireland

    Remember under FTPA a VONC doesn't nesisariily mean a general election.
    SeanT said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    I don't think so. It risks a Corbyn government and it would split the Tories down the middle, probably for ever
    "Risks" the Tories splitting down the middle? :)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    If the HoC takes control and goes for something that is in direct contrast to her government's policy, a GE is the only option.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    TGOHF said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    Good outcomes

    1) No deal Brexit.

    2) 6 month extension + new PM

    Not good outcomes

    3) Retaining Mrs May

    4) Revoking

    5) 2nd referendum


    The EU wouldn't agree to 2.

    I think the best bet for the Tories is the house voting for Revoke, en masse, with most of the rebels being Tories. They can then blame No Brexit on Labour,

    A long shot, but it's their only shot, mayhap
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited March 2019
    TGOHF said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    Good outcomes

    1) No deal Brexit.

    2) 6 month extension + new PM

    Not good outcomes

    3) Retaining Mrs May

    4) Revoking

    5) 2nd referendum


    2. Isn't an outcome but a staging post to one of the others (and the six month extension won't play well in Tory circles meanwhile). If you think 1. is a good outcome, your faith is admirable, if misplaced.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    There isn't one.
    The least bad option remains the deal. Which is why Labour won't support it of course.
    The referendum was about the people, not party politics. Please let at least one of Labour or the Tories be destroyed by this
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683
    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    I think only World War III could get them out of this one.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    There isn't one.
    Voting through the WA would not be a disaster for the Tories. I doubt if a softer Brexit would hurt them much.

    No Deal would hurt them; Revoke would hurt even more.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Don't think there ever any doubt who's side Theresa May was really on anyway...
    As far as I can tell she's on her own side.
    A normal person would have cracked up by now.
    There has been no point in the last three months when I have understood what Theresa May was trying to do. She has spent the time trying to defibrillate a corpse. The time could have been better used looking for an alternative resolution. She should have stood down long ago.
    She has been trying to get her deal through parliament I mean it is such an innocuous simple thing - money, citizens, backstop - but for reasons of perfectly understandable ideology and political expediency too many MPs are rejecting it.

    Which is a shame because as it stands it is the only sensible and coherent way forward. As, to be fair to her, she keeps on saying.

    She might have sown the seeds for this mess two years ago but now that we are where we are she appears to be the lone voice of reason.
    Yep I agree with that. But given that she did make such a mess of things early on and that she has clearly lost the confidence of pretty much everyone in the country, she really should take that final step and accept she will stand down if that is what it takes to get her deal through. The idea of her tin ear being in charge of the trade negotiations for the next two years is horrendous.
    Yes the trust has gone; the two issues should be separate but I appreciate they aren't.
    Is it ridiculous to think that history will see Mrs May as the only grown up in the House?
    4 months ago, no, but now, yes. Her refusal to at least try other things when the political reailty, howeer stupidly, rejected her deals so decisively, has now led to actual damage.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    "Michael Avenatti, the former lawyer for Stormy Daniels, has been indicted on extortion charges."

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/michael-avenatti-to-be-charged-with-wire-and-bank-fraud.html

    Hope no one backed him win the Dem nomination/Presidency in 2020.
    I keep having a double take when the Guardian refers to Stormy Daniels as a porn actor, thinking I must have missed a key episode of the story. Then I realise they mean actress.
    Betraying your inner gammon there Mr N.
    Mr N? How very dare you gender the Nabavi, when you don't even know whether s/he identifies as cis or trans?

    Gammon.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Ishmael_Z said:

    "Michael Avenatti, the former lawyer for Stormy Daniels, has been indicted on extortion charges."

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/michael-avenatti-to-be-charged-with-wire-and-bank-fraud.html

    Hope no one backed him win the Dem nomination/Presidency in 2020.
    I keep having a double take when the Guardian refers to Stormy Daniels as a porn actor, thinking I must have missed a key episode of the story. Then I realise they mean actress.
    Betraying your inner gammon there Mr N.
    Mr N? How very dare you gender the Nabavi, when you don't even know whether s/he identifies as cis or trans?

    Gammon.
    LOL!
  • SeanT said:

    TGOHF said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    Good outcomes

    1) No deal Brexit.

    2) 6 month extension + new PM

    Not good outcomes

    3) Retaining Mrs May

    4) Revoking

    5) 2nd referendum


    The EU wouldn't agree to 2.

    I think the best bet for the Tories is the house voting for Revoke, en masse, with most of the rebels being Tories. They can then blame No Brexit on Labour,

    A long shot, but it's their only shot, mayhap
    You do know revoke means us electing MEPs with campaign starting in just over two weeks
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Facts don't matter in this debate - we are just going over different versions of the same lies.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited March 2019

    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    If the HoC takes control and goes for something that is in direct contrast to her government's policy, a GE is the only option.
    If it's a soft Brexit the better advice might be to dine on humble pie and then run with it. Apart from anything else it's their best chance of offloading some of the blame. And the best chance of actually achieving a Brexit, which I would have thought is a prerequisite for satisfying their elderly membership
  • My guess was about half a million, so not bad for an amateur.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    Ludicrous hyperbole from Crispin Blunt, is he on poppers again?
    One would not have thought he was a loon until fairly recently, though. I remember when Cameron was desperate to support him against his constituency association.
    That's probably the saddest thing about Brexit for me.

    Rational and moderate Tory MPs who I respected have gone all mad on Brexit.
    I think any outcome other than May’s Deal and a slow transition crushes the Tories at the next election, whenever it is.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    There isn't one.
    The least bad option remains the deal. Which is why Labour won't support it of course.
    The referendum was about the people, not party politics. Please let at least one of Labour or the Tories be destroyed by this
    One of will be
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    My guess was about half a million, so not bad for an amateur.
    Certainly closer than Casino's 154 ;)
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    SeanT said:

    TGOHF said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    Good outcomes

    1) No deal Brexit.

    2) 6 month extension + new PM

    Not good outcomes

    3) Retaining Mrs May

    4) Revoking

    5) 2nd referendum


    The EU wouldn't agree to 2.

    I think the best bet for the Tories is the house voting for Revoke, en masse, with most of the rebels being Tories. They can then blame No Brexit on Labour,

    A long shot, but it's their only shot, mayhap
    You do know revoke means us electing MEPs with campaign starting in just over two weeks
    Very few people can name their MEPs - I only know one of the South East ones (because she is the mother of someone I know)

    I couldn't give a fig about having more Euro Elections
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042

    Ishmael_Z said:

    "Michael Avenatti, the former lawyer for Stormy Daniels, has been indicted on extortion charges."

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/michael-avenatti-to-be-charged-with-wire-and-bank-fraud.html

    Hope no one backed him win the Dem nomination/Presidency in 2020.
    I keep having a double take when the Guardian refers to Stormy Daniels as a porn actor, thinking I must have missed a key episode of the story. Then I realise they mean actress.
    Betraying your inner gammon there Mr N.
    Mr N? How very dare you gender the Nabavi, when you don't even know whether s/he identifies as cis or trans?

    Gammon.
    LOL!
    X2
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    There isn't one.
    The least bad option remains the deal. Which is why Labour won't support it of course.
    The referendum was about the people, not party politics. Please let at least one of Labour or the Tories be destroyed by this
    One of will be
    They both should be.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,726

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    Ludicrous hyperbole from Crispin Blunt, is he on poppers again?
    One would not have thought he was a loon until fairly recently, though. I remember when Cameron was desperate to support him against his constituency association.
    That's probably the saddest thing about Brexit for me.

    Rational and moderate Tory MPs who I respected have gone all mad on Brexit.
    I think any outcome other than May’s Deal and a slow transition crushes the Tories at the next election, whenever it is.
    Why do you think they wouldn't get crushed under that outcome? The transition would just entail endless fractious trade negotiations, against a backdrop of the No Dealers saying it's a disaster because Brexit was betrayed, and Remainers saying it's a disaster because they didn't give people the option of revocation.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    SeanT said:

    TGOHF said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    Good outcomes

    1) No deal Brexit.

    2) 6 month extension + new PM

    Not good outcomes

    3) Retaining Mrs May

    4) Revoking

    5) 2nd referendum


    The EU wouldn't agree to 2.

    I think the best bet for the Tories is the house voting for Revoke, en masse, with most of the rebels being Tories. They can then blame No Brexit on Labour,

    A long shot, but it's their only shot, mayhap
    Their only hope which does not involve them getting a grip and accepting a less than best outcome, and which requires a strategy of showing they are incompetent and impotent despite being the biggest party in the Commons.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2019

    SeanT said:

    TGOHF said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    Good outcomes

    1) No deal Brexit.

    2) 6 month extension + new PM

    Not good outcomes

    3) Retaining Mrs May

    4) Revoking

    5) 2nd referendum


    The EU wouldn't agree to 2.

    I think the best bet for the Tories is the house voting for Revoke, en masse, with most of the rebels being Tories. They can then blame No Brexit on Labour,

    A long shot, but it's their only shot, mayhap
    You do know revoke means us electing MEPs with campaign starting in just over two weeks
    Very few people can name their MEPs - I only know one of the South East ones (because she is the mother of someone I know)

    I couldn't give a fig about having more Euro Elections
    Low turnout as Leave voters are all sipping Victory Gin in the Chestnut Tree
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2019
    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    There isn't one.
    Voting through the WA would not be a disaster for the Tories. I doubt if a softer Brexit would hurt them much.

    No Deal would hurt them; Revoke would hurt even more.
    The trouble is that so many Tory MPs have trashed the deal and party activists have swallowed the nonsense wholesale, so if they now go ahead and reluctantly implement it it will be seen by many Tory voters and activists as at best a humiliating climbdown and more likely as a disgraceful act of betrayal.

    It didn't need to be like that, but that is the logical consequence of the behaviour of many Tory MPs since November.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503
    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    Backing her Deal.

    Brexit supporters in Parliament should have reined in and led their supporters to a moderate deal, stressing the need for a compromise, post vote and not incited them to revolutionary fervour.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited March 2019
    Lidington to move the government motion.

    Amendents selected are Corbyn, Letwin, and Beckett. (make time for Labour's deal, hold indicative votes, and give parliament a chance to stop no deal, respectively)

    Votes at 10 pm
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Whoever's writing this soap opera is certainly a whiz at coming up with new twists in the plot:

    Michael Avenatti faces a separate set of charges in Los Angeles, where prosecutors allege “he embezzled a client’s money in order to pay his own expenses and debts — as well as those of his coffee business & law firm — and also defrauded a bank by using phony tax returns to obtain millions of dollars,” per NPR.

    That’s in addition to the case in New York, where he’s charged with attempting to extort millions out of Nike.


    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2019/mar/25/mueller-report-trump-total-exoneration-democrats-latest-news
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    There isn't one.
    Voting through the WA would not be a disaster for the Tories. I doubt if a softer Brexit would hurt them much.

    No Deal would hurt them; Revoke would hurt even more.
    The trouble is that so many Tory MPs have trashed the deal and party activists have swallowed the nonsense wholesale, so if they now go ahead and reluctantly implement it it will be seen by many Tory voters and activists as at best a humiliating climbdown and more likely as a disgraceful act of betrayal.

    It didn't need to be like that, but that is the logical consequence of the behaviour of many Tory MPs since November.
    Normal people would just see the news that we have left and forget about it
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    IanB2 said:

    My guess was about half a million, so not bad for an amateur.
    Certainly closer than Casino's 154 ;)
    Although to be cruel, on those numbers Casino's 154 was closer than your 1 million. :)
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,355
    edited March 2019

    IanB2 said:

    My guess was about half a million, so not bad for an amateur.
    Certainly closer than Casino's 154 ;)
    Although to be cruel, on those numbers Casino's 154 was closer than your 1 million. :)
    Well, to be fair I did include dogs. Eliminate the dogs and Casino is pretty close.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    There isn't one.
    Voting through the WA would not be a disaster for the Tories. I doubt if a softer Brexit would hurt them much.

    No Deal would hurt them; Revoke would hurt even more.
    The trouble is that so many Tory MPs have trashed the deal and party activists have swallowed the nonsense wholesale, so if they now go ahead and reluctantly implement it it will be seen by many Tory voters and activists as at best a humiliating climbdown and more likely as a disgraceful act of betrayal.

    It didn't need to be like that, but that is the logical consequence of the behaviour of many Tory MPs since November.
    To counter that Boris, DD, Rees-Mogg etc. would need to issue a joint declaration of unqualified support, while also emphasizing that their previous objections were based on ignorance and malice, for which they are deeply sorry. That might win the grassroots round.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    edited March 2019
    IanB2 said:

    Lidington to move the government motion.

    Amendents selected are Letwin, Corbyn, and Beckett.

    Votes at 10 pm

    I think in the order Corbyn, Letwin, Beckett.

    Corbyn; This calls on the government to provide parliamentary time for lawmakers to find a majority for a different approach on Brexit, noting that the alternative proposals include holding a second Brexit referendum or seeking a customs union with the EU.

    Letwin: This seeks to change the rules of parliament on March 27 in order to provide time for lawmakers to debate and vote on alternative ways forward on Brexit, a process often referred to as ‘indicative votes’.

    Beckett: This amendment states that if Britain comes within seven calendar days of leaving the EU without a deal, the government must ask parliament whether it would approve a no deal exit or if it should seek a further delay to Brexit in order to prevent this outcome and give parliament time to determine a different way forward.

    The Speaker also said this was a provisional choice of amendments - whatever that means.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Barnesian said:

    The Speaker also said this was a provisional choice of amendments - whatever that means.

    Maybe he's giving himself wriggle room to add another if one of the three is withdrawn?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Lidington to move the government motion.

    Amendents selected are Letwin, Corbyn, and Beckett.

    Votes at 10 pm

    I think in the order Corbyn, Letwin, Beckett.

    Corbyn; This calls on the government to provide parliamentary time for lawmakers to find a majority for a different approach on Brexit, noting that the alternative proposals include holding a second Brexit referendum or seeking a customs union with the EU.

    Letwin: This seeks to change the rules of parliament on March 27 in order to provide time for lawmakers to debate and vote on alternative ways forward on Brexit, a process often referred to as ‘indicative votes’.

    Beckett: This amendment states that if Britain comes within seven calendar days of leaving the EU without a deal, the government must ask parliament whether it would approve a no deal exit or if it should seek a further delay to Brexit in order to prevent this outcome and give parliament time to determine a different way forward.

    The Speaker also said this was a provisional choice of amendments - whatever that means.
    I didn't hear that latter - and not sure he can do that, since amendments are moved immediately after the substantive. Unless he means he might allow one of the others to be moved also if members kick up a fuss.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Jos Buttler was Mankaded in the IPL today by the way
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2019
    5.5 on the petition. It's slowing, but likely to reach 6 million by tomorrow, I think. I'm beginning to agree that if it carries on slowing at the same rate it may start to calm by around 8-9 million - but who knows.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Penny finally dropping amongst Tory ranks that no deal isn't going to happen.

    Lidington still hoping for MV3.

  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    5.5 on the petition. It's slowing, but likely to reach 6 million by tomorrow, I think. I'm beginning to agree that if it carries on slowing at the same rate it may start to stall by around 8-9 million - but who knows.

    What running out of duplicate email accounts?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503

    I said 300-350k on Saturday as my estimate in the early afternoon and then revised it to 400k later in the day.

    I got totally lambasted for my trouble, so it’s nice to be vindicated.
  • Norm said:

    5.5 on the petition. It's slowing, but likely to reach 6 million by tomorrow, I think. I'm beginning to agree that if it carries on slowing at the same rate it may start to stall by around 8-9 million - but who knows.

    What running out of duplicate email accounts?
    The expert analyses that I've read linked to on this site, so far, have mentioned very little manipulation.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503
    edited March 2019

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    Ludicrous hyperbole from Crispin Blunt, is he on poppers again?
    One would not have thought he was a loon until fairly recently, though. I remember when Cameron was desperate to support him against his constituency association.
    That's probably the saddest thing about Brexit for me.

    Rational and moderate Tory MPs who I respected have gone all mad on Brexit.
    I think any outcome other than May’s Deal and a slow transition crushes the Tories at the next election, whenever it is.
    Why do you think they wouldn't get crushed under that outcome? The transition would just entail endless fractious trade negotiations, against a backdrop of the No Dealers saying it's a disaster because Brexit was betrayed, and Remainers saying it's a disaster because they didn't give people the option of revocation.
    Polling shows it’s a compromise that most voters could live with as their 2nd choice.

    The Tories could complete the FTA prior to the next election and then campaign under the new leader on the economy and a revitalised domestic agenda.

    Longshot, given the way the sands are shifting, but the only one that gives them a chance of winning the next GE, IMHO.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,726

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    Ludicrous hyperbole from Crispin Blunt, is he on poppers again?
    One would not have thought he was a loon until fairly recently, though. I remember when Cameron was desperate to support him against his constituency association.
    That's probably the saddest thing about Brexit for me.

    Rational and moderate Tory MPs who I respected have gone all mad on Brexit.
    I think any outcome other than May’s Deal and a slow transition crushes the Tories at the next election, whenever it is.
    Why do you think they wouldn't get crushed under that outcome? The transition would just entail endless fractious trade negotiations, against a backdrop of the No Dealers saying it's a disaster because Brexit was betrayed, and Remainers saying it's a disaster because they didn't give people the option of revocation.
    Polling show it’s a compromise that most voters could live with as their 2nd choice.
    I don't think most people realise that if it goes through, politics will still be dominated by Brexit for the foreseeable future.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216


    I said 300-350k on Saturday as my estimate in the early afternoon and then revised it to 400k later in the day.

    I got totally lambasted for my trouble, so it’s nice to be vindicated.
    I’m sure the fulsome apologies will follow in due course.....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    My guess was about half a million, so not bad for an amateur.
    A couple of people that I know who went said it was fewer people than last time, I think they are probably right.
  • isam said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    There isn't one.
    The least bad option remains the deal. Which is why Labour won't support it of course.
    The referendum was about the people, not party politics. Please let at least one of Labour or the Tories be destroyed by this
    One of will be
    They both should be.
    They both may be.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    With Lidington we at least have a grown up at the dispatch box.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Is Stephen Bush right here? https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/03/theresa-may-s-threats-mps-make-no-sense-all

    "Ultimately the British constitution is a one-line document: if you have a parliamentary majority, you can do what you want. If MPs can cohere around an alternative plan they could appoint one of their number to negotiate with the EU, or even send a letter revoking Article 50 from the House of Commons rather than from the executive if they so desire."
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    Barnesian said:

    The Speaker also said this was a provisional choice of amendments - whatever that means.

    Maybe he's giving himself wriggle room to add another if one of the three is withdrawn?
    Well we know he will only be bound by precedent when it suits his agenda
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,726

    My guess was about half a million, so not bad for an amateur.
    The big flaw with their methodology is that it only counts people who were there simultaneously. Many people joined for only part of the march and peeled off via side streets because of congestion, and others were still joining the back of it when the the speeches in Parliament Square had finished.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395


    I said 300-350k on Saturday as my estimate in the early afternoon and then revised it to 400k later in the day.

    I got totally lambasted for my trouble, so it’s nice to be vindicated.
    The great thing about a referendum or election is that you don't have to get into arguments about how large a crowd was.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503

    IanB2 said:

    My guess was about half a million, so not bad for an amateur.
    Certainly closer than Casino's 154 ;)
    Although to be cruel, on those numbers Casino's 154 was closer than your 1 million. :)
    I never said anything of the sort.

    My numbers were credible and calculated the whole way through.

    It’s just the PV mob didn’t want to hear it.

    It’s too late now anyway. The million marchers headlines have been generated, and won’t change. Just as I feared.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Lidington to move the government motion.

    Amendents selected are Letwin, Corbyn, and Beckett.

    Votes at 10 pm

    I think in the order Corbyn, Letwin, Beckett.

    Corbyn; This calls on the government to provide parliamentary time for lawmakers to find a majority for a different approach on Brexit, noting that the alternative proposals include holding a second Brexit referendum or seeking a customs union with the EU.

    Letwin: This seeks to change the rules of parliament on March 27 in order to provide time for lawmakers to debate and vote on alternative ways forward on Brexit, a process often referred to as ‘indicative votes’.

    Beckett: This amendment states that if Britain comes within seven calendar days of leaving the EU without a deal, the government must ask parliament whether it would approve a no deal exit or if it should seek a further delay to Brexit in order to prevent this outcome and give parliament time to determine a different way forward.

    The Speaker also said this was a provisional choice of amendments - whatever that means.
    Beckett's amendment fails to acknowledge the stated position of the EU that there is no more negotiating to be done. There is no extension offer on the table that we can seize. We have zero guarantees that the EU will agree to anything other than what is on the table now.

    Until Parliamentarians get to grips with that reality, we will remain in this mess
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2019

    My guess was about half a million, so not bad for an amateur.
    The big flaw with their methodology is that it only counts people who were there simultaneously. Many people joined for only part of the march and peeled off via side streets because of congestion, and others were still joining the back of it when the the speeches in Parliament Square had finished.
    Yes. Two members of my family joined at Parliament Sq for the last hour only, and then found out by phone that other friends in their circle had also given up, and gone straight to Westminster for the last hour too.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,726

    The Tories could complete the FTA prior to the next election and then campaign under the new leader on the economy and a revitalised domestic agenda.

    I don't think this is realistic. They still haven't confronted the fundamental choice between an FTA-style deal with a border in the Irish sea, or a single market-based deal that abandons the red lines.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    Can anyone hear that pin dropping across the US news networks ?
    Yep, that's the Mueller report !
  • Norm said:

    5.5 on the petition. It's slowing, but likely to reach 6 million by tomorrow, I think. I'm beginning to agree that if it carries on slowing at the same rate it may start to stall by around 8-9 million - but who knows.

    What running out of duplicate email accounts?
    Somehow I suspect that as the petiton slows down the percentage of fraudulent or mischievous subscribers will increase.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    Ludicrous hyperbole from Crispin Blunt, is he on poppers again?
    One would not have thought he was a loon until fairly recently, though. I remember when Cameron was desperate to support him against his constituency association.
    That's probably the saddest thing about Brexit for me.

    Rational and moderate Tory MPs who I respected have gone all mad on Brexit.
    I think any outcome other than May’s Deal and a slow transition crushes the Tories at the next election, whenever it is.
    Why do you think they wouldn't get crushed under that outcome? The transition would just entail endless fractious trade negotiations, against a backdrop of the No Dealers saying it's a disaster because Brexit was betrayed, and Remainers saying it's a disaster because they didn't give people the option of revocation.
    Polling show it’s a compromise that most voters could live with as their 2nd choice.
    I don't think most people realise that if it goes through, politics will still be dominated by Brexit for the foreseeable future.
    That applies to revocation as well.

    You are just as fanatical as Steve Baker and Mark Francois, just on the exact opposite side and with more creativity and intelligence.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited March 2019


    Somehow I suspect that as the petiton slows down the percentage of fraudulent or mischievous subscribers will increase.


    Wouldn't be surprised if we see some 4chan inspired attempt to get it to 25 million or the like. Would be easy enough to do for someone with a botnet.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503
    IanB2 said:

    Penny finally dropping amongst Tory ranks that no deal isn't going to happen.

    Lidington still hoping for MV3.


    Lidington could act as de facto PM (sort of a political regency) over the next few weeks; “what she said was..”, “what she meant was..” and do all the difficult calls and meetings etc.

    Might work..
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    There isn't one.
    Voting through the WA would not be a disaster for the Tories. I doubt if a softer Brexit would hurt them much.

    No Deal would hurt them; Revoke would hurt even more.
    The trouble is that so many Tory MPs have trashed the deal and party activists have swallowed the nonsense wholesale, so if they now go ahead and reluctantly implement it it will be seen by many Tory voters and activists as at best a humiliating climbdown and more likely as a disgraceful act of betrayal.

    It didn't need to be like that, but that is the logical consequence of the behaviour of many Tory MPs since November.
    I still find this the most amazing* aspect of the process: the vehemence and size of the Tory opposition to the Deal last autumn. Hedging their bets with a “it’s not great, but we’ll look at it” would let them wiggle now. But having marched their supporters up the hill, they look in the Facebook comments like traitors if they back it, or look like traitors if they risk no Brexit by continuing to vote against.

    (*Well, one of. Amid stiff competition)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited March 2019
    Lidington confirming that if Letwin doesn't pass, government will provide time for a "debate" later this week, and then consider how to proceed thereafter.

    But not committing to any votes, despite the Tory Chelmsford MP suggesting her constituents have been urging her to support Letwin. Which is remarkable in itself.

    Lidington now conceding the house and not government should identify the options. But resisting call for a free vote.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2019
    Re ; the petition, we really need someone who's good with figures and data - I think a user with Hamilton in their name was on the other day - to see how much it really is slowing down. It still seems to be managing about a million a day, which is I what I mistakenly thought it was doing last week, but a numbers brain may be able to shed some better light on the data.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503

    The Tories could complete the FTA prior to the next election and then campaign under the new leader on the economy and a revitalised domestic agenda.

    I don't think this is realistic. They still haven't confronted the fundamental choice between an FTA-style deal with a border in the Irish sea, or a single market-based deal that abandons the red lines.
    It would involve a compromise, just as the WA is.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    IanB2 said:

    Lidington confirming that if Letwin doesn't pass, government will provide time for a "debate" later this week, and then consider how to proceed thereafter.

    But not committing to any votes, despite the Tory Chelmsford MP suggesting her constituents have been urging her to support Letwin. Which is remarkable in itself.

    I respectfully suggest that the MP for Chelmsford is lying. Her constituents - indeed any constituents - have zero knowledge or interest in anything proposed by Letwin
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    IanB2 said:

    My guess was about half a million, so not bad for an amateur.
    Certainly closer than Casino's 154 ;)
    Although to be cruel, on those numbers Casino's 154 was closer than your 1 million. :)
    I never said anything of the sort.

    My numbers were credible and calculated the whole way through.

    It’s just the PV mob didn’t want to hear it.

    It’s too late now anyway. The million marchers headlines have been generated, and won’t change. Just as I feared.
    I wonder where they got the idea, if what you suggest is true.

    "We sent London a million marchers..." I can picture the words painted on some form of public transport...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited March 2019
    Clarke suggesting government should just back Letwin and get on with it.

    Lidington dogding a very good question. Edit/ and now saying the only reason they can't support Letwin is because it comes from a backbencher.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    SeanT said:

    TGOHF said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's GE folks.

    imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.

    If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.
    Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.
    Good outcomes

    1) No deal Brexit.

    2) 6 month extension + new PM

    Not good outcomes

    3) Retaining Mrs May

    4) Revoking

    5) 2nd referendum


    The EU wouldn't agree to 2.

    I think the best bet for the Tories is the house voting for Revoke, en masse, with most of the rebels being Tories. They can then blame No Brexit on Labour,

    A long shot, but it's their only shot, mayhap
    You do know revoke means us electing MEPs with campaign starting in just over two weeks
    And a massive increase in EU contributions going forward.

    The voters will crucify whoever stands for that.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    IanB2 said:

    Clarke suggesting government should just back Letwin and get on with it.

    Lidington dogding a very good question.

    There is a significant difference between setting a precedent in backing this amendment and making time available for the (pointless) indicative votes.

    MPs need to realise what their roles are - not what they think they are.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118


    I said 300-350k on Saturday as my estimate in the early afternoon and then revised it to 400k later in the day.

    I got totally lambasted for my trouble, so it’s nice to be vindicated.
    I’m sure the fulsome apologies will follow in due course.....
    I read an article on the John Inverdale/Marion Bartoli controversy the other day; he said that once he had made the offensive remark he did just what the BBC trained them to do; Carry on as if nothing had happened, dont acknowledge your mistake and do not apologise... it seems that is the way everyone operates nowadays, and I think it is one of the worst things about modern society - no responsibilty taken for any mistake, desperate pleading for recognition of any small accomplishment
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503
    Ishmael_Z said:

    IanB2 said:

    My guess was about half a million, so not bad for an amateur.
    Certainly closer than Casino's 154 ;)
    Although to be cruel, on those numbers Casino's 154 was closer than your 1 million. :)
    I never said anything of the sort.

    My numbers were credible and calculated the whole way through.

    It’s just the PV mob didn’t want to hear it.

    It’s too late now anyway. The million marchers headlines have been generated, and won’t change. Just as I feared.
    I wonder where they got the idea, if what you suggest is true.

    "We sent London a million marchers..." I can picture the words painted on some form of public transport...
    Pre-planned spin. I laid that out on here before 10am on Saturday morning as well.

    The organisers are very well advised by the masters, like Alastair Campbell.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Surely common market 2.0 is the only way now out of the conundrum we are in . It retains the benefits of EU membership and gives back control over agriculture and fishing and keeps us out of the political union . I know we have to compromise on freedom of labour but we do retain some get out in freedom of movement as I understand it . Does it have any chance ?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    Ludicrous hyperbole from Crispin Blunt, is he on poppers again?
    One would not have thought he was a loon until fairly recently, though. I remember when Cameron was desperate to support him against his constituency association.
    That's probably the saddest thing about Brexit for me.

    Rational and moderate Tory MPs who I respected have gone all mad on Brexit.
    I think any outcome other than May’s Deal and a slow transition crushes the Tories at the next election, whenever it is.
    Why do you think they wouldn't get crushed under that outcome? The transition would just entail endless fractious trade negotiations, against a backdrop of the No Dealers saying it's a disaster because Brexit was betrayed, and Remainers saying it's a disaster because they didn't give people the option of revocation.
    Polling show it’s a compromise that most voters could live with as their 2nd choice.
    I don't think most people realise that if it goes through, politics will still be dominated by Brexit for the foreseeable future.
    That applies to revocation as well.

    You are just as fanatical as Steve Baker and Mark Francois, just on the exact opposite side and with more creativity and intelligence.
    I don't think it is like that, much as our love of symmetry leads us to want it to be true. If we revoke, where does that leave Brexit as a project? How do you go about campaigning for it? It wasn't exactly an easy sell last time. You might just about get away with it if there is no second referendum and you can say that you are fulfilling the 2016 result. But that is a diminishing asset. Speaking personally I no longer regard the result of that referendum as valid. Others may be more indulgent, but ultimately the time will come when it carries no power at all. I don't think anyone used the 1976 result to argue against Labour's manifesto commitment in 1983. So lets give it 6 years max.

    And if there is another referendum there is very little chance of leave winning again. How many of their arguments still stand up? Precious few. And as we saw last Saturday, there is now a really determined opposition.

    If we don't get Brexit now it is off the agenda. For ever.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Re the petition, we really need someone who's good with figures and data - I think a user with Hamilton in their name was on the other day - to see how much it really is slowing down. It still seems to be managing about a million a day, which is I what I mistakenly thought it was doing last week, but a numbers brain may be able to shed some light on the data.

    This purports to know that sort of thing:

    https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

    Hover over AVERAGE: 289 PER MINUTE and it gives you hourly and daily equivalents. I think it was about 600 per minute yesterday afternoon, in which case the rate has halved. I also think it's a bit academic - it has already produced all the impact it is going to have.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    I would support No Deal over either Revoke or a 2nd Referendum

    I dont want any of the 3 though

    #CorbynsCustomsUnion for me.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Bill Cash now trying to filibuster against Letwin.
This discussion has been closed.