politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What four years of Govey as EdSec did to the teaching vote
Options
Comments
-
Yes the trust has gone; the two issues should be separate but I appreciate they aren't.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep I agree with that. But given that she did make such a mess of things early on and that she has clearly lost the confidence of pretty much everyone in the country, she really should take that final step and accept she will stand down if that is what it takes to get her deal through. The idea of her tin ear being in charge of the trade negotiations for the next two years is horrendous.TOPPING said:
She has been trying to get her deal through parliament I mean it is such an innocuous simple thing - money, citizens, backstop - but for reasons of perfectly understandable ideology and political expediency too many MPs are rejecting it.AlastairMeeks said:
There has been no point in the last three months when I have understood what Theresa May was trying to do. She has spent the time trying to defibrillate a corpse. The time could have been better used looking for an alternative resolution. She should have stood down long ago.Peter_the_Punter said:
A normal person would have cracked up by now.AlastairMeeks said:
Which is a shame because as it stands it is the only sensible and coherent way forward. As, to be fair to her, she keeps on saying.
She might have sown the seeds for this mess two years ago but now that we are where we are she appears to be the lone voice of reason.0 -
It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.0 -
I've been out, but are people who have steadfastedly refused to pass a Brexit deal really condemning May for not passing Brexit yet, and doing what parliament wants in not no dealing?
I don't know what these people even want anymore.0 -
Betraying your inner gammon there Mr N.Richard_Nabavi said:
I keep having a double take when the Guardian refers to Stormy Daniels as a porn actor, thinking I must have missed a key episode of the story. Then I realise they mean actress.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hope no one backed him win the Dem nomination/Presidency in 2020.Richard_Nabavi said:"Michael Avenatti, the former lawyer for Stormy Daniels, has been indicted on extortion charges."
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/michael-avenatti-to-be-charged-with-wire-and-bank-fraud.html0 -
I start a new job this May, I have also I have lot of tickets to the world cup and Ashes.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
Don't ruin my summer Mrs May.0 -
I don't think so. It risks a Corbyn government and it would split the Tories down the middle, probably for everrottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.0 -
Outright revocation destroys her career, her party and any residual trust in democracy in this country. Otherwise not so bad.SeanT said:
I don't think that's sellable. Revoke is just a Deferral? Nah. It would be seen as Revoke and Remain, which is fair, as that would almost certainly be the result.algarkirk said:
I think that must be right. However, TM does not by now have a track record of reliably sticking to her commitments and promises so while it might be true that ultimately she will use her prerogative to revoke, she might also change her mind.SeanT said:
The only way TMay can personally "take No Deal away" is either by promising something she cannot necessarily deliver: a General Election or a new Referendum - or by Revoking.Scott_P said:
On that logic, she IS implying that she would Revoke, at the 11th hour, if necessary (and then resign?)
I can't see any other way to avoid No Deal.
Revoking can be dressed up as deferring of course.
That's why, if TMay did do it, I think she'd have to resign immediately after.
Put it another way, in the next week or two TMay is going to have to do something she has consistently vowed not to do: allow No Deal, allow a referendum and extend, call a GE and extend, accept some new soft Deal that crosses all her red lines, or Revoke.
Any one of these will destroy her career, some will destroy her career, or her party, or her country, or all three.0 -
Hmm, I fear Mr Allen Green is making a logical error there. He hasn't considered the strong possibility that parliament rules out Revoke as well.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/NinaDSchick/status/1110223398288928768SeanT said:Put it another way, in the next week or two TMay is going to have to do something she has consistently vowed not to do: allow No Deal, allow a referendum and extend, call a GE and extend, accept some new soft Deal that crosses all her red lines, or Revoke.
Any one of these will destroy her career, some will destroy her career, or her party, or her country, or all three.0 -
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.0 -
It used to be called speaking the English language.SandyRentool said:
Betraying your inner gammon there Mr N.Richard_Nabavi said:
I keep having a double take when the Guardian refers to Stormy Daniels as a porn actor, thinking I must have missed a key episode of the story. Then I realise they mean actress.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hope no one backed him win the Dem nomination/Presidency in 2020.Richard_Nabavi said:"Michael Avenatti, the former lawyer for Stormy Daniels, has been indicted on extortion charges."
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/michael-avenatti-to-be-charged-with-wire-and-bank-fraud.html0 -
Priceless. I hope somebody is putting together an anthology of Brexit hubris. It should be compulsory for aspiring MPs to study it in future.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
There is now way the Cons can allow a GE with Mrs May in charge - would be a disaster.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
She isn't taking the hint - she needs to go now.0 -
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
0 -
There isn't one.IanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.0 -
Is it ridiculous to think that history will see Mrs May as the only grown up in the House?TOPPING said:
Yes the trust has gone; the two issues should be separate but I appreciate they aren't.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep I agree with that. But given that she did make such a mess of things early on and that she has clearly lost the confidence of pretty much everyone in the country, she really should take that final step and accept she will stand down if that is what it takes to get her deal through. The idea of her tin ear being in charge of the trade negotiations for the next two years is horrendous.TOPPING said:
She has been trying to get her deal through parliament I mean it is such an innocuous simple thing - money, citizens, backstop - but for reasons of perfectly understandable ideology and political expediency too many MPs are rejecting it.AlastairMeeks said:
There has been no point in the last three months when I have understood what Theresa May was trying to do. She has spent the time trying to defibrillate a corpse. The time could have been better used looking for an alternative resolution. She should have stood down long ago.Peter_the_Punter said:
A normal person would have cracked up by now.AlastairMeeks said:
Which is a shame because as it stands it is the only sensible and coherent way forward. As, to be fair to her, she keeps on saying.
She might have sown the seeds for this mess two years ago but now that we are where we are she appears to be the lone voice of reason.0 -
Somebody will be.anothernick said:
Priceless. I hope somebody is putting together an anthology of Brexit hubris. It should be compulsory for aspiring MPs to study it in future.TheScreamingEagles said:
During the public inquiry into this policy catastrophe.0 -
Good outcomesIanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
1) No deal Brexit.
2) 6 month extension + new PM
Not good outcomes
3) Retaining Mrs May
4) Revoking
5) 2nd referendum
0 -
The least bad option remains the deal. Which is why Labour won't support it of course.Richard_Nabavi said:
There isn't one.IanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.0 -
Well quite. That they appear dead set on choosing what I'd regard as the most damanging for them, a GE, is one of the more baffling debates going on right now.IanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories?williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
Even rabble rousers like Guido have been trying to tell no dealers this for bloody ages, and they still act surprised when it happens. Can they not see three feet in front of their noses (politically)?CarlottaVance said:0 -
One long odds bet on US POTUS that won't come in now @:)Richard_Nabavi said:"Michael Avenatti, the former lawyer for Stormy Daniels, has been indicted on extortion charges."
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/michael-avenatti-to-be-charged-with-wire-and-bank-fraud.html0 -
Yep, although Boris and the loons have contrived to make even that least-bad option still a disaster for the party.DavidL said:
The least bad option remains the deal. Which is why Labour won't support it of course.Richard_Nabavi said:
There isn't one.IanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.0 -
Not if May runs the campaign.IanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
I'm not sure the party would let her, though. If it looks likely that there will be a GE, she'll be dumped. A change of leader and a change of emphasis might work, particularly with Corbyn opposite.0 -
I think that may well be the caseisam said:
Is it ridiculous to think that history will see Mrs May as the only grown up in the House?TOPPING said:
Yes the trust has gone; the two issues should be separate but I appreciate they aren't.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep I agree with that. But given that she did make such a mess of things early on and that she has clearly lost the confidence of pretty much everyone in the country, she really should take that final step and accept she will stand down if that is what it takes to get her deal through. The idea of her tin ear being in charge of the trade negotiations for the next two years is horrendous.TOPPING said:
She has been trying to get her deal through parliament I mean it is such an innocuous simple thing - money, citizens, backstop - but for reasons of perfectly understandable ideology and political expediency too many MPs are rejecting it.AlastairMeeks said:
There has been no point in the last three months when I have understood what Theresa May was trying to do. She has spent the time trying to defibrillate a corpse. The time could have been better used looking for an alternative resolution. She should have stood down long ago.Peter_the_Punter said:
A normal person would have cracked up by now.AlastairMeeks said:
Which is a shame because as it stands it is the only sensible and coherent way forward. As, to be fair to her, she keeps on saying.
She might have sown the seeds for this mess two years ago but now that we are where we are she appears to be the lone voice of reason.0 -
eek said:
Why would the DUP give up their only power in decades and the additional pork that power is given their constituents in Northern Irelandkjohnw said:What is the chances now of the erg and dup trying to no confidence the government and force a General Election
Remember under FTPA a VONC doesn't nesisariily mean a general election.
"Risks" the Tories splitting down the middle?SeanT said:
I don't think so. It risks a Corbyn government and it would split the Tories down the middle, probably for everrottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
0 -
If the HoC takes control and goes for something that is in direct contrast to her government's policy, a GE is the only option.IanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.0 -
The EU wouldn't agree to 2.TGOHF said:
Good outcomesIanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
1) No deal Brexit.
2) 6 month extension + new PM
Not good outcomes
3) Retaining Mrs May
4) Revoking
5) 2nd referendum
I think the best bet for the Tories is the house voting for Revoke, en masse, with most of the rebels being Tories. They can then blame No Brexit on Labour,
A long shot, but it's their only shot, mayhap0 -
2. Isn't an outcome but a staging post to one of the others (and the six month extension won't play well in Tory circles meanwhile). If you think 1. is a good outcome, your faith is admirable, if misplaced.TGOHF said:
Good outcomesIanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
1) No deal Brexit.
2) 6 month extension + new PM
Not good outcomes
3) Retaining Mrs May
4) Revoking
5) 2nd referendum0 -
The referendum was about the people, not party politics. Please let at least one of Labour or the Tories be destroyed by thisDavidL said:
The least bad option remains the deal. Which is why Labour won't support it of course.Richard_Nabavi said:
There isn't one.IanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.0 -
I think only World War III could get them out of this one.IanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.0 -
Voting through the WA would not be a disaster for the Tories. I doubt if a softer Brexit would hurt them much.Richard_Nabavi said:
There isn't one.IanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
No Deal would hurt them; Revoke would hurt even more.0 -
4 months ago, no, but now, yes. Her refusal to at least try other things when the political reailty, howeer stupidly, rejected her deals so decisively, has now led to actual damage.isam said:
Is it ridiculous to think that history will see Mrs May as the only grown up in the House?TOPPING said:
Yes the trust has gone; the two issues should be separate but I appreciate they aren't.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep I agree with that. But given that she did make such a mess of things early on and that she has clearly lost the confidence of pretty much everyone in the country, she really should take that final step and accept she will stand down if that is what it takes to get her deal through. The idea of her tin ear being in charge of the trade negotiations for the next two years is horrendous.TOPPING said:
She has been trying to get her deal through parliament I mean it is such an innocuous simple thing - money, citizens, backstop - but for reasons of perfectly understandable ideology and political expediency too many MPs are rejecting it.AlastairMeeks said:
There has been no point in the last three months when I have understood what Theresa May was trying to do. She has spent the time trying to defibrillate a corpse. The time could have been better used looking for an alternative resolution. She should have stood down long ago.Peter_the_Punter said:
A normal person would have cracked up by now.AlastairMeeks said:
Which is a shame because as it stands it is the only sensible and coherent way forward. As, to be fair to her, she keeps on saying.
She might have sown the seeds for this mess two years ago but now that we are where we are she appears to be the lone voice of reason.0 -
Mr N? How very dare you gender the Nabavi, when you don't even know whether s/he identifies as cis or trans?SandyRentool said:
Betraying your inner gammon there Mr N.Richard_Nabavi said:
I keep having a double take when the Guardian refers to Stormy Daniels as a porn actor, thinking I must have missed a key episode of the story. Then I realise they mean actress.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hope no one backed him win the Dem nomination/Presidency in 2020.Richard_Nabavi said:"Michael Avenatti, the former lawyer for Stormy Daniels, has been indicted on extortion charges."
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/michael-avenatti-to-be-charged-with-wire-and-bank-fraud.html
Gammon.0 -
LOL!Ishmael_Z said:
Mr N? How very dare you gender the Nabavi, when you don't even know whether s/he identifies as cis or trans?SandyRentool said:
Betraying your inner gammon there Mr N.Richard_Nabavi said:
I keep having a double take when the Guardian refers to Stormy Daniels as a porn actor, thinking I must have missed a key episode of the story. Then I realise they mean actress.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hope no one backed him win the Dem nomination/Presidency in 2020.Richard_Nabavi said:"Michael Avenatti, the former lawyer for Stormy Daniels, has been indicted on extortion charges."
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/michael-avenatti-to-be-charged-with-wire-and-bank-fraud.html
Gammon.0 -
You do know revoke means us electing MEPs with campaign starting in just over two weeksSeanT said:
The EU wouldn't agree to 2.TGOHF said:
Good outcomesIanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
1) No deal Brexit.
2) 6 month extension + new PM
Not good outcomes
3) Retaining Mrs May
4) Revoking
5) 2nd referendum
I think the best bet for the Tories is the house voting for Revoke, en masse, with most of the rebels being Tories. They can then blame No Brexit on Labour,
A long shot, but it's their only shot, mayhap0 -
Facts don't matter in this debate - we are just going over different versions of the same lies.CarlottaVance said:0 -
If it's a soft Brexit the better advice might be to dine on humble pie and then run with it. Apart from anything else it's their best chance of offloading some of the blame. And the best chance of actually achieving a Brexit, which I would have thought is a prerequisite for satisfying their elderly membershiprottenborough said:
If the HoC takes control and goes for something that is in direct contrast to her government's policy, a GE is the only option.IanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.0 -
My guess was about half a million, so not bad for an amateur.CarlottaVance said:0 -
I think any outcome other than May’s Deal and a slow transition crushes the Tories at the next election, whenever it is.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's probably the saddest thing about Brexit for me.Sean_F said:
One would not have thought he was a loon until fairly recently, though. I remember when Cameron was desperate to support him against his constituency association.TheScreamingEagles said:
Ludicrous hyperbole from Crispin Blunt, is he on poppers again?Scott_P said:
Rational and moderate Tory MPs who I respected have gone all mad on Brexit.0 -
One of will beisam said:
The referendum was about the people, not party politics. Please let at least one of Labour or the Tories be destroyed by thisDavidL said:
The least bad option remains the deal. Which is why Labour won't support it of course.Richard_Nabavi said:
There isn't one.IanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.0 -
Certainly closer than Casino's 154Peter_the_Punter said:
My guess was about half a million, so not bad for an amateur.CarlottaVance said:
0 -
Very few people can name their MEPs - I only know one of the South East ones (because she is the mother of someone I know)Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do know revoke means us electing MEPs with campaign starting in just over two weeksSeanT said:
The EU wouldn't agree to 2.TGOHF said:
Good outcomesIanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
1) No deal Brexit.
2) 6 month extension + new PM
Not good outcomes
3) Retaining Mrs May
4) Revoking
5) 2nd referendum
I think the best bet for the Tories is the house voting for Revoke, en masse, with most of the rebels being Tories. They can then blame No Brexit on Labour,
A long shot, but it's their only shot, mayhap
I couldn't give a fig about having more Euro Elections0 -
X2Richard_Nabavi said:
LOL!Ishmael_Z said:
Mr N? How very dare you gender the Nabavi, when you don't even know whether s/he identifies as cis or trans?SandyRentool said:
Betraying your inner gammon there Mr N.Richard_Nabavi said:
I keep having a double take when the Guardian refers to Stormy Daniels as a porn actor, thinking I must have missed a key episode of the story. Then I realise they mean actress.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hope no one backed him win the Dem nomination/Presidency in 2020.Richard_Nabavi said:"Michael Avenatti, the former lawyer for Stormy Daniels, has been indicted on extortion charges."
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/michael-avenatti-to-be-charged-with-wire-and-bank-fraud.html
Gammon.0 -
They both should be.bigjohnowls said:
One of will beisam said:
The referendum was about the people, not party politics. Please let at least one of Labour or the Tories be destroyed by thisDavidL said:
The least bad option remains the deal. Which is why Labour won't support it of course.Richard_Nabavi said:
There isn't one.IanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.0 -
Why do you think they wouldn't get crushed under that outcome? The transition would just entail endless fractious trade negotiations, against a backdrop of the No Dealers saying it's a disaster because Brexit was betrayed, and Remainers saying it's a disaster because they didn't give people the option of revocation.Casino_Royale said:
I think any outcome other than May’s Deal and a slow transition crushes the Tories at the next election, whenever it is.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's probably the saddest thing about Brexit for me.Sean_F said:
One would not have thought he was a loon until fairly recently, though. I remember when Cameron was desperate to support him against his constituency association.TheScreamingEagles said:
Ludicrous hyperbole from Crispin Blunt, is he on poppers again?Scott_P said:
Rational and moderate Tory MPs who I respected have gone all mad on Brexit.0 -
Their only hope which does not involve them getting a grip and accepting a less than best outcome, and which requires a strategy of showing they are incompetent and impotent despite being the biggest party in the Commons.SeanT said:
The EU wouldn't agree to 2.TGOHF said:
Good outcomesIanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
1) No deal Brexit.
2) 6 month extension + new PM
Not good outcomes
3) Retaining Mrs May
4) Revoking
5) 2nd referendum
I think the best bet for the Tories is the house voting for Revoke, en masse, with most of the rebels being Tories. They can then blame No Brexit on Labour,
A long shot, but it's their only shot, mayhap0 -
Low turnout as Leave voters are all sipping Victory Gin in the Chestnut Treeoxfordsimon said:
Very few people can name their MEPs - I only know one of the South East ones (because she is the mother of someone I know)Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do know revoke means us electing MEPs with campaign starting in just over two weeksSeanT said:
The EU wouldn't agree to 2.TGOHF said:
Good outcomesIanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
1) No deal Brexit.
2) 6 month extension + new PM
Not good outcomes
3) Retaining Mrs May
4) Revoking
5) 2nd referendum
I think the best bet for the Tories is the house voting for Revoke, en masse, with most of the rebels being Tories. They can then blame No Brexit on Labour,
A long shot, but it's their only shot, mayhap
I couldn't give a fig about having more Euro Elections0 -
The trouble is that so many Tory MPs have trashed the deal and party activists have swallowed the nonsense wholesale, so if they now go ahead and reluctantly implement it it will be seen by many Tory voters and activists as at best a humiliating climbdown and more likely as a disgraceful act of betrayal.Sean_F said:
Voting through the WA would not be a disaster for the Tories. I doubt if a softer Brexit would hurt them much.Richard_Nabavi said:
There isn't one.IanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
No Deal would hurt them; Revoke would hurt even more.
It didn't need to be like that, but that is the logical consequence of the behaviour of many Tory MPs since November.0 -
Backing her Deal.IanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
Brexit supporters in Parliament should have reined in and led their supporters to a moderate deal, stressing the need for a compromise, post vote and not incited them to revolutionary fervour.0 -
Lidington to move the government motion.
Amendents selected are Corbyn, Letwin, and Beckett. (make time for Labour's deal, hold indicative votes, and give parliament a chance to stop no deal, respectively)
Votes at 10 pm0 -
Whoever's writing this soap opera is certainly a whiz at coming up with new twists in the plot:
Michael Avenatti faces a separate set of charges in Los Angeles, where prosecutors allege “he embezzled a client’s money in order to pay his own expenses and debts — as well as those of his coffee business & law firm — and also defrauded a bank by using phony tax returns to obtain millions of dollars,” per NPR.
That’s in addition to the case in New York, where he’s charged with attempting to extort millions out of Nike.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2019/mar/25/mueller-report-trump-total-exoneration-democrats-latest-news0 -
Normal people would just see the news that we have left and forget about itRichard_Nabavi said:
The trouble is that so many Tory MPs have trashed the deal and party activists have swallowed the nonsense wholesale, so if they now go ahead and reluctantly implement it it will be seen by many Tory voters and activists as at best a humiliating climbdown and more likely as a disgraceful act of betrayal.Sean_F said:
Voting through the WA would not be a disaster for the Tories. I doubt if a softer Brexit would hurt them much.Richard_Nabavi said:
There isn't one.IanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
No Deal would hurt them; Revoke would hurt even more.
It didn't need to be like that, but that is the logical consequence of the behaviour of many Tory MPs since November.0 -
Although to be cruel, on those numbers Casino's 154 was closer than your 1 million.IanB2 said:
Certainly closer than Casino's 154Peter_the_Punter said:
My guess was about half a million, so not bad for an amateur.CarlottaVance said: 0 -
Well, to be fair I did include dogs. Eliminate the dogs and Casino is pretty close.Richard_Tyndall said:
Although to be cruel, on those numbers Casino's 154 was closer than your 1 million.IanB2 said:
Certainly closer than Casino's 154Peter_the_Punter said:
My guess was about half a million, so not bad for an amateur.CarlottaVance said:0 -
To counter that Boris, DD, Rees-Mogg etc. would need to issue a joint declaration of unqualified support, while also emphasizing that their previous objections were based on ignorance and malice, for which they are deeply sorry. That might win the grassroots round.Richard_Nabavi said:
The trouble is that so many Tory MPs have trashed the deal and party activists have swallowed the nonsense wholesale, so if they now go ahead and reluctantly implement it it will be seen by many Tory voters and activists as at best a humiliating climbdown and more likely as a disgraceful act of betrayal.Sean_F said:
Voting through the WA would not be a disaster for the Tories. I doubt if a softer Brexit would hurt them much.Richard_Nabavi said:
There isn't one.IanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
No Deal would hurt them; Revoke would hurt even more.
It didn't need to be like that, but that is the logical consequence of the behaviour of many Tory MPs since November.0 -
I think in the order Corbyn, Letwin, Beckett.IanB2 said:Lidington to move the government motion.
Amendents selected are Letwin, Corbyn, and Beckett.
Votes at 10 pm
Corbyn; This calls on the government to provide parliamentary time for lawmakers to find a majority for a different approach on Brexit, noting that the alternative proposals include holding a second Brexit referendum or seeking a customs union with the EU.
Letwin: This seeks to change the rules of parliament on March 27 in order to provide time for lawmakers to debate and vote on alternative ways forward on Brexit, a process often referred to as ‘indicative votes’.
Beckett: This amendment states that if Britain comes within seven calendar days of leaving the EU without a deal, the government must ask parliament whether it would approve a no deal exit or if it should seek a further delay to Brexit in order to prevent this outcome and give parliament time to determine a different way forward.
The Speaker also said this was a provisional choice of amendments - whatever that means.0 -
Maybe he's giving himself wriggle room to add another if one of the three is withdrawn?Barnesian said:The Speaker also said this was a provisional choice of amendments - whatever that means.
0 -
I didn't hear that latter - and not sure he can do that, since amendments are moved immediately after the substantive. Unless he means he might allow one of the others to be moved also if members kick up a fuss.Barnesian said:
I think in the order Corbyn, Letwin, Beckett.IanB2 said:Lidington to move the government motion.
Amendents selected are Letwin, Corbyn, and Beckett.
Votes at 10 pm
Corbyn; This calls on the government to provide parliamentary time for lawmakers to find a majority for a different approach on Brexit, noting that the alternative proposals include holding a second Brexit referendum or seeking a customs union with the EU.
Letwin: This seeks to change the rules of parliament on March 27 in order to provide time for lawmakers to debate and vote on alternative ways forward on Brexit, a process often referred to as ‘indicative votes’.
Beckett: This amendment states that if Britain comes within seven calendar days of leaving the EU without a deal, the government must ask parliament whether it would approve a no deal exit or if it should seek a further delay to Brexit in order to prevent this outcome and give parliament time to determine a different way forward.
The Speaker also said this was a provisional choice of amendments - whatever that means.0 -
Jos Buttler was Mankaded in the IPL today by the way0
-
5.5 on the petition. It's slowing, but likely to reach 6 million by tomorrow, I think. I'm beginning to agree that if it carries on slowing at the same rate it may start to calm by around 8-9 million - but who knows.0
-
Penny finally dropping amongst Tory ranks that no deal isn't going to happen.
Lidington still hoping for MV3.
0 -
What running out of duplicate email accounts?WhisperingOracle said:5.5 on the petition. It's slowing, but likely to reach 6 million by tomorrow, I think. I'm beginning to agree that if it carries on slowing at the same rate it may start to stall by around 8-9 million - but who knows.
0 -
CarlottaVance said:
I said 300-350k on Saturday as my estimate in the early afternoon and then revised it to 400k later in the day.
I got totally lambasted for my trouble, so it’s nice to be vindicated.0 -
The expert analyses that I've read linked to on this site, so far, have mentioned very little manipulation.Norm said:
What running out of duplicate email accounts?WhisperingOracle said:5.5 on the petition. It's slowing, but likely to reach 6 million by tomorrow, I think. I'm beginning to agree that if it carries on slowing at the same rate it may start to stall by around 8-9 million - but who knows.
0 -
Polling shows it’s a compromise that most voters could live with as their 2nd choice.williamglenn said:
Why do you think they wouldn't get crushed under that outcome? The transition would just entail endless fractious trade negotiations, against a backdrop of the No Dealers saying it's a disaster because Brexit was betrayed, and Remainers saying it's a disaster because they didn't give people the option of revocation.Casino_Royale said:
I think any outcome other than May’s Deal and a slow transition crushes the Tories at the next election, whenever it is.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's probably the saddest thing about Brexit for me.Sean_F said:
One would not have thought he was a loon until fairly recently, though. I remember when Cameron was desperate to support him against his constituency association.TheScreamingEagles said:
Ludicrous hyperbole from Crispin Blunt, is he on poppers again?Scott_P said:
Rational and moderate Tory MPs who I respected have gone all mad on Brexit.
The Tories could complete the FTA prior to the next election and then campaign under the new leader on the economy and a revitalised domestic agenda.
Longshot, given the way the sands are shifting, but the only one that gives them a chance of winning the next GE, IMHO.0 -
I don't think most people realise that if it goes through, politics will still be dominated by Brexit for the foreseeable future.Casino_Royale said:
Polling show it’s a compromise that most voters could live with as their 2nd choice.williamglenn said:
Why do you think they wouldn't get crushed under that outcome? The transition would just entail endless fractious trade negotiations, against a backdrop of the No Dealers saying it's a disaster because Brexit was betrayed, and Remainers saying it's a disaster because they didn't give people the option of revocation.Casino_Royale said:
I think any outcome other than May’s Deal and a slow transition crushes the Tories at the next election, whenever it is.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's probably the saddest thing about Brexit for me.Sean_F said:
One would not have thought he was a loon until fairly recently, though. I remember when Cameron was desperate to support him against his constituency association.TheScreamingEagles said:
Ludicrous hyperbole from Crispin Blunt, is he on poppers again?Scott_P said:
Rational and moderate Tory MPs who I respected have gone all mad on Brexit.0 -
I’m sure the fulsome apologies will follow in due course.....Casino_Royale said:CarlottaVance said:
I said 300-350k on Saturday as my estimate in the early afternoon and then revised it to 400k later in the day.
I got totally lambasted for my trouble, so it’s nice to be vindicated.0 -
A couple of people that I know who went said it was fewer people than last time, I think they are probably right.Peter_the_Punter said:
My guess was about half a million, so not bad for an amateur.CarlottaVance said:0 -
They both may be.Richard_Tyndall said:
They both should be.bigjohnowls said:
One of will beisam said:
The referendum was about the people, not party politics. Please let at least one of Labour or the Tories be destroyed by thisDavidL said:
The least bad option remains the deal. Which is why Labour won't support it of course.Richard_Nabavi said:
There isn't one.IanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.0 -
With Lidington we at least have a grown up at the dispatch box.0
-
Is Stephen Bush right here? https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/03/theresa-may-s-threats-mps-make-no-sense-all
"Ultimately the British constitution is a one-line document: if you have a parliamentary majority, you can do what you want. If MPs can cohere around an alternative plan they could appoint one of their number to negotiate with the EU, or even send a letter revoking Article 50 from the House of Commons rather than from the executive if they so desire."0 -
Well we know he will only be bound by precedent when it suits his agendaEl_Capitano said:
Maybe he's giving himself wriggle room to add another if one of the three is withdrawn?Barnesian said:The Speaker also said this was a provisional choice of amendments - whatever that means.
0 -
The big flaw with their methodology is that it only counts people who were there simultaneously. Many people joined for only part of the march and peeled off via side streets because of congestion, and others were still joining the back of it when the the speeches in Parliament Square had finished.Peter_the_Punter said:
My guess was about half a million, so not bad for an amateur.CarlottaVance said:0 -
The great thing about a referendum or election is that you don't have to get into arguments about how large a crowd was.Casino_Royale said:CarlottaVance said:
I said 300-350k on Saturday as my estimate in the early afternoon and then revised it to 400k later in the day.
I got totally lambasted for my trouble, so it’s nice to be vindicated.0 -
I never said anything of the sort.Richard_Tyndall said:
Although to be cruel, on those numbers Casino's 154 was closer than your 1 million.IanB2 said:
Certainly closer than Casino's 154Peter_the_Punter said:
My guess was about half a million, so not bad for an amateur.CarlottaVance said:
My numbers were credible and calculated the whole way through.
It’s just the PV mob didn’t want to hear it.
It’s too late now anyway. The million marchers headlines have been generated, and won’t change. Just as I feared.0 -
Beckett's amendment fails to acknowledge the stated position of the EU that there is no more negotiating to be done. There is no extension offer on the table that we can seize. We have zero guarantees that the EU will agree to anything other than what is on the table now.Barnesian said:
I think in the order Corbyn, Letwin, Beckett.IanB2 said:Lidington to move the government motion.
Amendents selected are Letwin, Corbyn, and Beckett.
Votes at 10 pm
Corbyn; This calls on the government to provide parliamentary time for lawmakers to find a majority for a different approach on Brexit, noting that the alternative proposals include holding a second Brexit referendum or seeking a customs union with the EU.
Letwin: This seeks to change the rules of parliament on March 27 in order to provide time for lawmakers to debate and vote on alternative ways forward on Brexit, a process often referred to as ‘indicative votes’.
Beckett: This amendment states that if Britain comes within seven calendar days of leaving the EU without a deal, the government must ask parliament whether it would approve a no deal exit or if it should seek a further delay to Brexit in order to prevent this outcome and give parliament time to determine a different way forward.
The Speaker also said this was a provisional choice of amendments - whatever that means.
Until Parliamentarians get to grips with that reality, we will remain in this mess0 -
Yes. Two members of my family joined at Parliament Sq for the last hour only, and then found out by phone that other friends in their circle had also given up, and gone straight to Westminster for the last hour too.williamglenn said:
The big flaw with their methodology is that it only counts people who were there simultaneously. Many people joined for only part of the march and peeled off via side streets because of congestion, and others were still joining the back of it when the the speeches in Parliament Square had finished.Peter_the_Punter said:
My guess was about half a million, so not bad for an amateur.CarlottaVance said:0 -
I don't think this is realistic. They still haven't confronted the fundamental choice between an FTA-style deal with a border in the Irish sea, or a single market-based deal that abandons the red lines.Casino_Royale said:The Tories could complete the FTA prior to the next election and then campaign under the new leader on the economy and a revitalised domestic agenda.
0 -
Can anyone hear that pin dropping across the US news networks ?
Yep, that's the Mueller report !0 -
Somehow I suspect that as the petiton slows down the percentage of fraudulent or mischievous subscribers will increase.Norm said:
What running out of duplicate email accounts?WhisperingOracle said:5.5 on the petition. It's slowing, but likely to reach 6 million by tomorrow, I think. I'm beginning to agree that if it carries on slowing at the same rate it may start to stall by around 8-9 million - but who knows.
0 -
That applies to revocation as well.williamglenn said:
I don't think most people realise that if it goes through, politics will still be dominated by Brexit for the foreseeable future.Casino_Royale said:
Polling show it’s a compromise that most voters could live with as their 2nd choice.williamglenn said:
Why do you think they wouldn't get crushed under that outcome? The transition would just entail endless fractious trade negotiations, against a backdrop of the No Dealers saying it's a disaster because Brexit was betrayed, and Remainers saying it's a disaster because they didn't give people the option of revocation.Casino_Royale said:
I think any outcome other than May’s Deal and a slow transition crushes the Tories at the next election, whenever it is.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's probably the saddest thing about Brexit for me.Sean_F said:
One would not have thought he was a loon until fairly recently, though. I remember when Cameron was desperate to support him against his constituency association.TheScreamingEagles said:
Ludicrous hyperbole from Crispin Blunt, is he on poppers again?Scott_P said:
Rational and moderate Tory MPs who I respected have gone all mad on Brexit.
You are just as fanatical as Steve Baker and Mark Francois, just on the exact opposite side and with more creativity and intelligence.0 -
Peter_the_Punter said:
Somehow I suspect that as the petiton slows down the percentage of fraudulent or mischievous subscribers will increase.
Wouldn't be surprised if we see some 4chan inspired attempt to get it to 25 million or the like. Would be easy enough to do for someone with a botnet.
0 -
IanB2 said:
Penny finally dropping amongst Tory ranks that no deal isn't going to happen.
Lidington still hoping for MV3.
Lidington could act as de facto PM (sort of a political regency) over the next few weeks; “what she said was..”, “what she meant was..” and do all the difficult calls and meetings etc.
Might work..0 -
I still find this the most amazing* aspect of the process: the vehemence and size of the Tory opposition to the Deal last autumn. Hedging their bets with a “it’s not great, but we’ll look at it” would let them wiggle now. But having marched their supporters up the hill, they look in the Facebook comments like traitors if they back it, or look like traitors if they risk no Brexit by continuing to vote against.Richard_Nabavi said:
The trouble is that so many Tory MPs have trashed the deal and party activists have swallowed the nonsense wholesale, so if they now go ahead and reluctantly implement it it will be seen by many Tory voters and activists as at best a humiliating climbdown and more likely as a disgraceful act of betrayal.Sean_F said:
Voting through the WA would not be a disaster for the Tories. I doubt if a softer Brexit would hurt them much.Richard_Nabavi said:
There isn't one.IanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
No Deal would hurt them; Revoke would hurt even more.
It didn't need to be like that, but that is the logical consequence of the behaviour of many Tory MPs since November.
(*Well, one of. Amid stiff competition)0 -
Lidington confirming that if Letwin doesn't pass, government will provide time for a "debate" later this week, and then consider how to proceed thereafter.
But not committing to any votes, despite the Tory Chelmsford MP suggesting her constituents have been urging her to support Letwin. Which is remarkable in itself.
Lidington now conceding the house and not government should identify the options. But resisting call for a free vote.0 -
Re ; the petition, we really need someone who's good with figures and data - I think a user with Hamilton in their name was on the other day - to see how much it really is slowing down. It still seems to be managing about a million a day, which is I what I mistakenly thought it was doing last week, but a numbers brain may be able to shed some better light on the data.0
-
It would involve a compromise, just as the WA is.williamglenn said:
I don't think this is realistic. They still haven't confronted the fundamental choice between an FTA-style deal with a border in the Irish sea, or a single market-based deal that abandons the red lines.Casino_Royale said:The Tories could complete the FTA prior to the next election and then campaign under the new leader on the economy and a revitalised domestic agenda.
0 -
I respectfully suggest that the MP for Chelmsford is lying. Her constituents - indeed any constituents - have zero knowledge or interest in anything proposed by LetwinIanB2 said:Lidington confirming that if Letwin doesn't pass, government will provide time for a "debate" later this week, and then consider how to proceed thereafter.
But not committing to any votes, despite the Tory Chelmsford MP suggesting her constituents have been urging her to support Letwin. Which is remarkable in itself.0 -
I wonder where they got the idea, if what you suggest is true.Casino_Royale said:
I never said anything of the sort.Richard_Tyndall said:
Although to be cruel, on those numbers Casino's 154 was closer than your 1 million.IanB2 said:
Certainly closer than Casino's 154Peter_the_Punter said:
My guess was about half a million, so not bad for an amateur.CarlottaVance said:
My numbers were credible and calculated the whole way through.
It’s just the PV mob didn’t want to hear it.
It’s too late now anyway. The million marchers headlines have been generated, and won’t change. Just as I feared.
"We sent London a million marchers..." I can picture the words painted on some form of public transport...0 -
Clarke suggesting government should just back Letwin and get on with it.
Lidington dogding a very good question. Edit/ and now saying the only reason they can't support Letwin is because it comes from a backbencher.0 -
And a massive increase in EU contributions going forward.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do know revoke means us electing MEPs with campaign starting in just over two weeksSeanT said:
The EU wouldn't agree to 2.TGOHF said:
Good outcomesIanB2 said:
Can anyone map out the scenario that isn't at least potentially a disaster for the Tories? They should have thought of that before pulling the pin from the grenade.williamglenn said:
If May tries to go for a long extension followed by a GE campaign which she makes about getting a majority to deliver Brexit, I think it would be a disaster for the Tories.rottenborough said:It's GE folks.
imho. Just a matter of when it is announced now.
1) No deal Brexit.
2) 6 month extension + new PM
Not good outcomes
3) Retaining Mrs May
4) Revoking
5) 2nd referendum
I think the best bet for the Tories is the house voting for Revoke, en masse, with most of the rebels being Tories. They can then blame No Brexit on Labour,
A long shot, but it's their only shot, mayhap
The voters will crucify whoever stands for that.0 -
There is a significant difference between setting a precedent in backing this amendment and making time available for the (pointless) indicative votes.IanB2 said:Clarke suggesting government should just back Letwin and get on with it.
Lidington dogding a very good question.
MPs need to realise what their roles are - not what they think they are.0 -
I read an article on the John Inverdale/Marion Bartoli controversy the other day; he said that once he had made the offensive remark he did just what the BBC trained them to do; Carry on as if nothing had happened, dont acknowledge your mistake and do not apologise... it seems that is the way everyone operates nowadays, and I think it is one of the worst things about modern society - no responsibilty taken for any mistake, desperate pleading for recognition of any small accomplishmentCarlottaVance said:
I’m sure the fulsome apologies will follow in due course.....Casino_Royale said:CarlottaVance said:
I said 300-350k on Saturday as my estimate in the early afternoon and then revised it to 400k later in the day.
I got totally lambasted for my trouble, so it’s nice to be vindicated.0 -
Pre-planned spin. I laid that out on here before 10am on Saturday morning as well.Ishmael_Z said:
I wonder where they got the idea, if what you suggest is true.Casino_Royale said:
I never said anything of the sort.Richard_Tyndall said:
Although to be cruel, on those numbers Casino's 154 was closer than your 1 million.IanB2 said:
Certainly closer than Casino's 154Peter_the_Punter said:
My guess was about half a million, so not bad for an amateur.CarlottaVance said:
My numbers were credible and calculated the whole way through.
It’s just the PV mob didn’t want to hear it.
It’s too late now anyway. The million marchers headlines have been generated, and won’t change. Just as I feared.
"We sent London a million marchers..." I can picture the words painted on some form of public transport...
The organisers are very well advised by the masters, like Alastair Campbell.0 -
Surely common market 2.0 is the only way now out of the conundrum we are in . It retains the benefits of EU membership and gives back control over agriculture and fishing and keeps us out of the political union . I know we have to compromise on freedom of labour but we do retain some get out in freedom of movement as I understand it . Does it have any chance ?0
-
I don't think it is like that, much as our love of symmetry leads us to want it to be true. If we revoke, where does that leave Brexit as a project? How do you go about campaigning for it? It wasn't exactly an easy sell last time. You might just about get away with it if there is no second referendum and you can say that you are fulfilling the 2016 result. But that is a diminishing asset. Speaking personally I no longer regard the result of that referendum as valid. Others may be more indulgent, but ultimately the time will come when it carries no power at all. I don't think anyone used the 1976 result to argue against Labour's manifesto commitment in 1983. So lets give it 6 years max.Casino_Royale said:
That applies to revocation as well.williamglenn said:
I don't think most people realise that if it goes through, politics will still be dominated by Brexit for the foreseeable future.Casino_Royale said:
Polling show it’s a compromise that most voters could live with as their 2nd choice.williamglenn said:
Why do you think they wouldn't get crushed under that outcome? The transition would just entail endless fractious trade negotiations, against a backdrop of the No Dealers saying it's a disaster because Brexit was betrayed, and Remainers saying it's a disaster because they didn't give people the option of revocation.Casino_Royale said:
I think any outcome other than May’s Deal and a slow transition crushes the Tories at the next election, whenever it is.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's probably the saddest thing about Brexit for me.Sean_F said:
One would not have thought he was a loon until fairly recently, though. I remember when Cameron was desperate to support him against his constituency association.TheScreamingEagles said:
Ludicrous hyperbole from Crispin Blunt, is he on poppers again?Scott_P said:
Rational and moderate Tory MPs who I respected have gone all mad on Brexit.
You are just as fanatical as Steve Baker and Mark Francois, just on the exact opposite side and with more creativity and intelligence.
And if there is another referendum there is very little chance of leave winning again. How many of their arguments still stand up? Precious few. And as we saw last Saturday, there is now a really determined opposition.
If we don't get Brexit now it is off the agenda. For ever.0 -
This purports to know that sort of thing:WhisperingOracle said:Re the petition, we really need someone who's good with figures and data - I think a user with Hamilton in their name was on the other day - to see how much it really is slowing down. It still seems to be managing about a million a day, which is I what I mistakenly thought it was doing last week, but a numbers brain may be able to shed some light on the data.
https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584
Hover over AVERAGE: 289 PER MINUTE and it gives you hourly and daily equivalents. I think it was about 600 per minute yesterday afternoon, in which case the rate has halved. I also think it's a bit academic - it has already produced all the impact it is going to have.
0 -
I would support No Deal over either Revoke or a 2nd Referendum
I dont want any of the 3 though
#CorbynsCustomsUnion for me.0 -
Bill Cash now trying to filibuster against Letwin.0
This discussion has been closed.