politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It appears the cabinet has decided to take back control from T
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That will require a general election with a manifesto pledging to open up everything once more and a result that delivers enough MPs to vote such a policy through.MarqueeMark said:
And the membership are then going to elect somebody pledged to unravelling the Lidington Super-shit Deal agreed in the meantime.SouthamObserver said:
The referendum result is only not delivered if we do not legally leave the EU. No Tory leader would countenance that.GIN1138 said:
Well that's OK.eek said:
Yep - the Tories elect a leader in June / July followed by a general election in late October...GarethoftheVale2 said:
The problem is the small matter of the 3 months where we apparently have a Prime Minister nobody has ever heard of or voted for foisted upon us with the sole aim of pissing all over the 2016 referendum.
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Showing my ignorance here and probably should know the answer, but who is the man in the photo?williamglenn said:
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If the ERG VONC the government a lot of Tory MPs will get the democratic alternative. How much of Tory poll leads is propped up by May (what ever MPs or the commentariat think?)Sean_F said:
In an ideal world, each and every Conservative MP would be taken out and shot. Then a new party could be formed from scratch.0 -
Commentator TY for replying. You are clearly not a previous poster from around 2005 who was a CON female poster who posted as test then commentator or the other way round
Mike and possibly Jack W will recall this0 -
GraylingLucyJones said:
Showing my ignorance here and probably should know the answer, but who is the man in the photo?williamglenn said:0 -
Whose Mrs Hinch?0
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Why limit yourself to the Tories?Sean_F said:The Conservative Party has been dysfunctional all my adult life. It's MP's see their primary role as sticking the knife into each other, and bringing down the leader of the day. They shit on their own voters endlessly. May is useless, but no doubt they'll install someone else who's useless.
In an ideal world, each and every Conservative MP would be taken out and shot. Then a new party could be formed from scratch.0 -
Welcome back iSam
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While accepting that May faces a terminal loss of support, some senior ministers are also warning that toppling her now would unleash a general election and a leadership fight that would be “toxic” for the Tories. “It is much better that one person is held responsible for all this mess,” said one senior minister.“If you get shot of her this week, you can almost guarantee an election and a whole set of problems.”
There is no clear plan of what would happen should May stand down. Some assume that her de facto deputy, David Lidington, would take over. However, seen as a pro-Remain minister, he would also face serious challenges from Tory MPs if he attempted to engineer a soft Brexit. One minister said: “The idea that everyone would step back and allow David Lidington to deliver a soft Brexit is absurd.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/23/tory-remainers-brexiters-say-theresa-may-in-end-days?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=15533721570 -
Thanks, of course. It was the hard hat that threw me.CarlottaVance said:
GraylingLucyJones said:
Showing my ignorance here and probably should know the answer, but who is the man in the photo?williamglenn said:0 -
Test-1
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A succinct observation - this is so Westminster driven. A lot of Tory Leave voters (70-75% of their support) will think May spoke some home truths to MPs in her accurate but politically ill-judged outburst the other night.CarlottaVance said:
What "new plan" might emerge from a GE? No guarantee of either another referendum or a cancellation. Despite what Tory MPs & the Cabinet thinks May is still more popular than them - they go to the country after ousting her and they'll get massacred.Scott_P said:
General Elections sounds like "new plan" to me, especially if followed by another referendum and cancellation...CarlottaVance said:The EU have said "agreed WA" or "new plan", not "more faffing around".
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Grayling is ferry good 🙂0
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It’s a very good point. Even if one of them wanted to fly over and ask for long extension and take part in EU elections, is there majority support in cabinet for that? Would they go with blessing of more than half The party membership, and more than half voters keeping them where they are in opinion polls supporting that action?CarlottaVance said:While accepting that May faces a terminal loss of support, some senior ministers are also warning that toppling her now would unleash a general election and a leadership fight that would be “toxic” for the Tories. “It is much better that one person is held responsible for all this mess,” said one senior minister.“If you get shot of her this week, you can almost guarantee an election and a whole set of problems.”
There is no clear plan of what would happen should May stand down. Some assume that her de facto deputy, David Lidington, would take over. However, seen as a pro-Remain minister, he would also face serious challenges from Tory MPs if he attempted to engineer a soft Brexit. One minister said: “The idea that everyone would step back and allow David Lidington to deliver a soft Brexit is absurd.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/23/tory-remainers-brexiters-say-theresa-may-in-end-days?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1553372157
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I once handled an actual Bank of England cheque.Charles said:
Sadly, it was in a pre-camera phone age, as I would have like to have recorded the occasion.0 -
That Tory poll lead is not propped up by any personal vote for May as such, but rather what May stands for: the office of a PM who is trying to deliver Brexit against the forces of Remain. A somewhat more competent PM trying to deliver Brexit against the forces of Remain would probably poll at least as well. A Conservative PM trying to dismantle Brexit would have the Party polling in the mid-20s.CarlottaVance said:
If the ERG VONC the government a lot of Tory MPs will get the democratic alternative. How much of Tory poll leads is propped up by May (what ever MPs or the commentariat think?)Sean_F said:
In an ideal world, each and every Conservative MP would be taken out and shot. Then a new party could be formed from scratch.
Task for the Tories: find a somewhat more comptent PM to deliver Brexit. HINT: Lidington is not that person.0 -
Baldrick++Barnesian said:
PM not leader.Foxy said:Am I missing something here? If Tezza goes, by what mechanism do the cabinet install a new leader without consulting MPs, and almost certainly the members?
Presumably the bookies wouldn't pay out on a temporary leader, while awaiting a permanent one.0 -
Baldrick - - without the cunning.....dixiedean said:
Baldrick++Barnesian said:
PM not leader.Foxy said:Am I missing something here? If Tezza goes, by what mechanism do the cabinet install a new leader without consulting MPs, and almost certainly the members?
Presumably the bookies wouldn't pay out on a temporary leader, while awaiting a permanent one.0 -
May is still more popular than the party or the government - and none of her likely successors 'stand out' as an obvious replacement. If the Cabinet thinks replacing her is a "quick fix" they are seriously deluded.MarqueeMark said:
That Tory poll lead is not propped up by any personal vote for May as suchCarlottaVance said:
If the ERG VONC the government a lot of Tory MPs will get the democratic alternative. How much of Tory poll leads is propped up by May (what ever MPs or the commentariat think?)Sean_F said:
In an ideal world, each and every Conservative MP would be taken out and shot. Then a new party could be formed from scratch.0 -
For goodness sake once the WA is passed it is passed, the PD is the basis of the future relationship shifted in a BINO direction but to be voted on and determined in the future once the negotiations on a future relationship have eventually been agreed.edmundintokyo said:
The PD isn't legally binding and we know that nearly all Tories oppose making brexit softer, and the ERG and DUP are good at getting their way. If I'm a Labour MP voting for the current WA, why would I trust the government to deliver the CU?HYUFD said:
The argument is not on the WA but the PD, the latter is what most of the indicative votes would be on, once a new PD was agreed the WA would pass as it is just really about the technicalities of Brexit
The ERG and DUP have also not got their way, if they had we would be leaving with No Deal on Friday, instead Parliament voted both to rule out No Deal and to extend Art 50
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It's not that surprising is it? I mean, Cabinet Members have been threatening to resign to get their way for a long time, forcing May to stand down is in the same vein.
But if Lidington will do a deal with Labour then he should be the one chosen - that will at least see Brexit done, whereas people who want to go harder will just see Remain done.0 -
Both the Tory and Labour Parties are now essentially Coalitions, the Tories of No Dealers and potential TIG, Labour of Corbynistas and potential TIGSean_F said:The Conservative Party has been dysfunctional all my adult life. It's MP's see their primary role as sticking the knife into each other, and bringing down the leader of the day. They shit on their own voters endlessly. May is useless, but no doubt they'll install someone else who's useless.
In an ideal world, each and every Conservative MP would be taken out and shot. Then a new party could be formed from scratch.
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So if Peston is right really nothing has changed, since the only reason May is still in place is because no one wants the job now, they want the direction of Brexit made clear and then they want to take over?CarlottaVance said:
The only difference seems to be that they are admitting that, even though the 'May as lightning rod for Brexit' policy has been speculated on for, well, years?0 -
The current government is still at least level pegging with Corbyn LabourCarlottaVance said:0 -
A coup? Now?
Lord have mercy.0 -
Quite probably, and frankly I don't care about that anymore. If they can at least get something on Brexit done before they completely implode that will be something.Oliver said:The Conservative party is about to implode before our eyes.
It pains me to say it, but I think there's a good chance Corbyn is PM by the end of the year.0 -
Paul Goodman:
None the less, our message to them this morning is: be careful what you wish for. A post-April 12 Prime Ministerial departure works. A pre-April 12 one doesn’t. The Conservative Party is like a man stuck in a swamp. If he keeps his head, he can work his way out of it. If he loses it, he will be sucked into the depths. Lidington Now, Gove Now, Hunt Now, Anyone Now – to attempt anything like this is to flail and thrash about. It will only drag the Party deeper into the swamp which threatens to drown it.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/03/try-a-coronation-get-an-uprising-may-should-go-mid-april-but-not-before-and-heres-why.html0 -
What they are saying is perfectly sensible, the indicative votes have to be held first and the Brexit withdrawal process completed first before the leadership is reexaminedkle4 said:
So if Peston is right really nothing has changed, since the only reason May is still in place is because no one wants the job now, they want the direction of Brexit made clear and then they want to take over?CarlottaVance said:
The only difference seems to be that they are admitting that, even though the 'May as lightning rod for Brexit' policy has been speculated on for, well, years?0 -
Awfully specific to mention 11 Cabinet ministers. Almost feels like they have to make a move now, since it has been declared whether they wanted it to happen or not.
But it doesn't seem like they have any sort of agreed plan for how to get Brexit through, so it really is just another displacement activity. I think everyone on earth who is not a piece of plankton can see that May is a hindrance to any solution now, but even so just declaring she must go without any agreement on what to do doesn't seem likely to improve matters any. You'd just be swapping one person who lacks the votes for anything for another.
These idiots really do just want to depress us completely.
Maybe May should jump the gun and go the Palace to resign tomorrow, and name Lidington as the man to take over. The PM is meant to command the confidence of the Commons, and it is quite clear that there is not one who can command the shared confidence of the Cabinet, let alone the Commons, so it hardly matters if she names him and he struggles to unify things.0 -
If she does that, the ERG may well refuse to support the government in a vote of confidence. An election will follow, which the Tories will fight with a leader and PM who no-one has heard of. We will be massacred.kle4 said:Awfully specific to mention 11 Cabinet ministers. Almost feels like they have to make a move now, since it has been declared whether they wanted it to happen or not.
But it doesn't seem like they have any sort of agreed plan for how to get Brexit through, so it really is just another displacement activity. I think everyone on earth who is not a piece of plankton can see that May is a hindrance to any solution now, but even so just declaring she must go without any agreement on what to do doesn't seem likely to improve matters any. You'd just be swapping one person who lacks the votes for anything for another.
These idiots really do just want to depress us completely.
Maybe May should jump the gun and go the Palace to resign tomorrow, and name Lidington as the man to take over. The PM is meant to command the confidence of the Commons, and it is quite clear that there is not one who can command the shared confidence of the Cabinet, let alone the Commons, so it hardly matters if she names him and he struggles to unify things.
It will probably be what happens.0 -
My first holiday job as a student was handing over certs of deposits, by hand, for Hansen Trust. First job, first day, £17m. Everybody thought I was a high flyer. £5.50ph through a temp agency.rcs1000 said:
I once handled an actual Bank of England cheque.Charles said:
Sadly, it was in a pre-camera phone age, as I would have like to have recorded the occasion.0 -
My point was that the idea that May should not be removed until the withdrawal process has been completed has been an obvious ploy for absolutely bloody ages and a very significant factor in why she is still there at all, so why start leaking to journalists that the coup is on right now? All it seems to have accomplished is show they still have no agreement on anything so pre announcing the coup is pointless.HYUFD said:
What they are saying is perfectly sensible, the indicative votes have to be held first and the Brexit withdrawal process completed first before the leadership is reexaminedkle4 said:
So if Peston is right really nothing has changed, since the only reason May is still in place is because no one wants the job now, they want the direction of Brexit made clear and then they want to take over?CarlottaVance said:
The only difference seems to be that they are admitting that, even though the 'May as lightning rod for Brexit' policy has been speculated on for, well, years?0 -
If they do foist Lidington on us unopposed at least Farage will be able to do his "Who Are You" ? speech for a home audience.
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But, so typical. They agree they want to get rid of May, but haven't a clue what else they want to do.kle4 said:Awfully specific to mention 11 Cabinet ministers. Almost feels like they have to make a move now, since it has been declared whether they wanted it to happen or not.
But it doesn't seem like they have any sort of agreed plan for how to get Brexit through, so it really is just another displacement activity. I think everyone on earth who is not a piece of plankton can see that May is a hindrance to any solution now, but even so just declaring she must go without any agreement on what to do doesn't seem likely to improve matters any. You'd just be swapping one person who lacks the votes for anything for another.
These idiots really do just want to depress us completely.
Maybe May should jump the gun and go the Palace to resign tomorrow, and name Lidington as the man to take over. The PM is meant to command the confidence of the Commons, and it is quite clear that there is not one who can command the shared confidence of the Cabinet, let alone the Commons, so it hardly matters if she names him and he struggles to unify things.0 -
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If you can think of a Brexit scenario which does not end in the Tories getting massacred at a GE I'd love to hear it, because I cannot see it - either the ERG win and we no deal and the party splits, or some kind of arrangement is suggested/approved which the ERG refuse to accept and the party splits.RoyalBlue said:
If she does that, the ERG may well refuse to support the government in a vote of confidence. An election will follow, which the Tories will fight with a leader and PM who no-one has heard of. We will be massacred.kle4 said:Awfully specific to mention 11 Cabinet ministers. Almost feels like they have to make a move now, since it has been declared whether they wanted it to happen or not.
But it doesn't seem like they have any sort of agreed plan for how to get Brexit through, so it really is just another displacement activity. I think everyone on earth who is not a piece of plankton can see that May is a hindrance to any solution now, but even so just declaring she must go without any agreement on what to do doesn't seem likely to improve matters any. You'd just be swapping one person who lacks the votes for anything for another.
These idiots really do just want to depress us completely.
Maybe May should jump the gun and go the Palace to resign tomorrow, and name Lidington as the man to take over. The PM is meant to command the confidence of the Commons, and it is quite clear that there is not one who can command the shared confidence of the Cabinet, let alone the Commons, so it hardly matters if she names him and he struggles to unify things.
It will probably be what happens.
No option seems able to avoid at least a small split, and any amount means they fall, we have a GE where they have a leader no one has heard or/likes, and they lose.0 -
GraylingLucyJones said:
Showing my ignorance here and probably should know the answer, but who is the man in the photo?williamglenn said:0 -
Can I just say, that earlier to today I posted that Monday was the day for end of May?0
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It's madness. May has completely lost control of things, undoubtedly, and parliament looks set to engage in a round of chaotic voting which, hopefully at least, will result in some foward progress, but I still don't see what the Cabinet plotters think is going to happen now.Sean_F said:
But, so typical. They agree they want to get rid of May, but haven't a clue what else they want to do.kle4 said:Awfully specific to mention 11 Cabinet ministers. Almost feels like they have to make a move now, since it has been declared whether they wanted it to happen or not.
But it doesn't seem like they have any sort of agreed plan for how to get Brexit through, so it really is just another displacement activity. I think everyone on earth who is not a piece of plankton can see that May is a hindrance to any solution now, but even so just declaring she must go without any agreement on what to do doesn't seem likely to improve matters any. You'd just be swapping one person who lacks the votes for anything for another.
These idiots really do just want to depress us completely.
Maybe May should jump the gun and go the Palace to resign tomorrow, and name Lidington as the man to take over. The PM is meant to command the confidence of the Commons, and it is quite clear that there is not one who can command the shared confidence of the Cabinet, let alone the Commons, so it hardly matters if she names him and he struggles to unify things.
She goes next week, and the underlying situation remains the same and the WA cannot pass the Commons, and nothing else commands overwhelming support in the party and some would actively trigger splits. As terrible as May is what actually is improved by replacing her with...nothing, essentially? Someone else who lacks support of the party or numbers in parliament for anything is not exactly going to be decisive new PM. Their first days would be spent replacing 1/2 to 1/4 of the Cabinet depending on who it is.
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The Tories need to:kle4 said:
If you can think of a Brexit scenario which does not end in the Tories getting massacred at a GE I'd love to hear it, because I cannot see it - either the ERG win and we no deal and the party splits, or some kind of arrangement is suggested/approved which the ERG refuse to accept and the party splits.RoyalBlue said:
If she does that, the ERG may well refuse to support the government in a vote of confidence. An election will follow, which the Tories will fight with a leader and PM who no-one has heard of. We will be massacred.kle4 said:Awfully specific to mention 11 Cabinet ministers. Almost feels like they have to make a move now, since it has been declared whether they wanted it to happen or not.
But it doesn't seem like they have any sort of agreed plan for how to get Brexit through, so it really is just another displacement activity. I think everyone on earth who is not a piece of plankton can see that May is a hindrance to any solution now, but even so just declaring she must go without any agreement on what to do doesn't seem likely to improve matters any. You'd just be swapping one person who lacks the votes for anything for another.
These idiots really do just want to depress us completely.
Maybe May should jump the gun and go the Palace to resign tomorrow, and name Lidington as the man to take over. The PM is meant to command the confidence of the Commons, and it is quite clear that there is not one who can command the shared confidence of the Cabinet, let alone the Commons, so it hardly matters if she names him and he struggles to unify things.
It will probably be what happens.
No option seems able to avoid at least a small split, and any amount means they fall, we have a GE where they have a leader no one has heard or/likes, and they lose.
i) Get 'Brexit' over some sort of line - ideally with the WA agreed, if not punted into the very long grass (which they'll pay dearly for, starting in May in the local and Euro elections)
then
ii) Sort out the leadership. Then give the new leader until 2022 before facing the country.
If they try ii) before i) they'll get massacred, and deserve it.
The question is, can May get i) done?0 -
Can I say, the idea that not involving the Tory membership would cause a row is one of the most insane things I've seen. Can any MP really say in all honesty that even if replacing May with someone equally unable to command a majority and without any plan is a good idea, that it should be held up for a members contest?CarlottaVance said:0 -
Tell that to the Cabinet. They've just done that apparently. Stories this detailed are not just hearsay.CarlottaVance said:
The Tories need to:kle4 said:
If you can think of a Brexit scenario which does not end in the Tories getting massacred at a GE I'd love to hear it, because I cannot see it - either the ERG win and we no deal and the party splits, or some kind of arrangement is suggested/approved which the ERG refuse to accept and the party splits.RoyalBlue said:
If she does that, the ERG may well refuse to support the government in a vote of confidence. An election will follow, which the Tories will fight with a leader and PM who no-one has heard of. We will be massacred.kle4 said:Awfully specific to mention 11 Cabinet ministers. Almost feels like they have to make a move now, since it has been declared whether they wanted it to happen or not.
But it doesn't seem like they have any sort of agreed plan for how to get Brexit through, so it really is just another displacement activity. I think everyone on earth who is not a piece of plankton can see that May is a hindrance to any solution now, but even so just declaring she must go without any agreement on what to do doesn't seem likely to improve matters any. You'd just be swapping one person who lacks the votes for anything for another.
These idiots really do just want to depress us completely.
Maybe May should jump the gun and go the Palace to resign tomorrow, and name Lidington as the man to take over. The PM is meant to command the confidence of the Commons, and it is quite clear that there is not one who can command the shared confidence of the Cabinet, let alone the Commons, so it hardly matters if she names him and he struggles to unify things.
It will probably be what happens.
No option seems able to avoid at least a small split, and any amount means they fall, we have a GE where they have a leader no one has heard or/likes, and they lose.
i) Get 'Brexit' over some sort of line - ideally with the WA agreed, if not punted into the very long grass (which they'll pay dearly for, starting in May in the local and Euro elections)
then
ii) Sort out the leadership. Then give the new leader until 2022 before facing the country.
If they try ii) before i) they'll get massacred, and deserve it.
And many Tories still seem to think a GE is a good thing. I don't know how they do it, but I think the party's best shot is as you suggest dragging it out the full length of the parliament to given them time to recover and rebuild with a new leader. But they don't seem to agree, heck, they think replacing one person with no plan with another with no plan will make a difference!0 -
I agree. Mays position that is causing her so much grief is simply representing the majority view in her cabinet, the majority view in her party, and a huge block of the electorate still right behind that position, in fact many would even go further now and choose Clean brexit if they can’t have this WA. It’s not May’s incompetence or intransigence that created the red lines that drafted the type of brexit deal that didn’t get approved, the red lines belong to the membership of her party, and the party’s current voter base. The actual problem is getting that deal agreed with EU through the house and doesn’t disappear with May, because she is not the architect or owner of it. Nor is she the architect of the difficulty of getting it through the house, though she owns this as a problem. The thing that gets approved by the house, indicative votes next week or as Mr Herdson explained do this several years ago, has never an option and never will be, because it’s a type of brexit her party and the huge staunch block of leave voters can ever countenance. Even by removing May you are still left with that inability to either revoke or ask to join the EU elections.CarlottaVance said:
May is still more popular than the party or the government - and none of her likely successors 'stand out' as an obvious replacement. If the Cabinet thinks replacing her is a "quick fix" they are seriously deluded.MarqueeMark said:
That Tory poll lead is not propped up by any personal vote for May as suchCarlottaVance said:
If the ERG VONC the government a lot of Tory MPs will get the democratic alternative. How much of Tory poll leads is propped up by May (what ever MPs or the commentariat think?)Sean_F said:
In an ideal world, each and every Conservative MP would be taken out and shot. Then a new party could be formed from scratch.
The only way out I can see for the conservatives to avoid all out civil war is a leaver ref back to the people, with the WA on it and no remain option. But there is no time for that now without long extension and participating in EU elections.
If the WA can’t get through Parliament the Conservative Party has but one option, May or no May they have to manage no deal brexit as best they can.0 -
So they Mail is saying the Chief Whip tearfully told May she had betrayed Brexit. I must confess I must have missed that. Last I checked however incompetent she has been she at least tried to deliver Brexit, unlike a great many of the Tory party.0
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They deserve to be massacred, but if they are, we're the ones who will suffer.kle4 said:
Tell that to the Cabinet. They've just done that apparently. Stories this detailed are not just hearsay.CarlottaVance said:
The Tories need to:kle4 said:
If you can think of a Brexit scenario which does not end in the Tories getting massacred at a GE I'd love to hear it, because I cannot see it - either the ERG win and we no deal and the party splits, or some kind of arrangement is suggested/approved which the ERG refuse to accept and the party splits.RoyalBlue said:
If she does that, the ERG may well refuse to support the government in a vote of confidence. An election will follow, which the Tories will fight with a leader and PM who no-one has heard of. We will be massacred.kle4 said:Awfully specific to mention 11 Cabinet ministers. Almost feels like they have to make a move now, since it has been declared whether they wanted it to happen or not.
But it doesn't seem like they have any sort of agreed plan for how to get Brexit through, so it really is just another displacement activity. I think everyone on earth who is not a piece of plankton can see that May is a hindrance to any solution now, but even so just declaring she must go without any agreement on what to do doesn't seem likely to improve matters any. You'd just be swapping one person who lacks the votes for anything for another.
These idiots really do just want to depress us completely.
Maybe May should jump the gun and go the Palace to resign tomorrow, and name Lidington as the man to take over. The PM is meant to command the confidence of the Commons, and it is quite clear that there is not one who can command the shared confidence of the Cabinet, let alone the Commons, so it hardly matters if she names him and he struggles to unify things.
It will probably be what happens.
No option seems able to avoid at least a small split, and any amount means they fall, we have a GE where they have a leader no one has heard or/likes, and they lose.
i) Get 'Brexit' over some sort of line - ideally with the WA agreed, if not punted into the very long grass (which they'll pay dearly for, starting in May in the local and Euro elections)
then
ii) Sort out the leadership. Then give the new leader until 2022 before facing the country.
If they try ii) before i) they'll get massacred, and deserve it.
And many Tories still seem to think a GE is a good thing. I don't know how they do it, but I think the party's best shot is as you suggest dragging it out the full length of the parliament to given them time to recover and rebuild with a new leader. But they don't seem to agree, heck, they think replacing one person with no plan with another with no plan will make a difference!0 -
I'm going to bed, but this stuff is just bananas. These are the people who are going to tell me Corbyn cannot be let near the rungs of power? Even as they work day and night to show a level of incompetence that shows that however bad he would be - which is probably really bad - it cannot be worse than this. And that's not just on May, it is the whole damn lot of them. A party led by weaklings and fools, and riven with extremist factions at constant war with one another.0
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If we leave with no deal, the party may lose up to 10 MPs and a few members. If Brexit is not delivered, the party will lose 100 MPs and a majority of its membership.kle4 said:
If you can think of a Brexit scenario which does not end in the Tories getting massacred at a GE I'd love to hear it, because I cannot see it - either the ERG win and we no deal and the party splits, or some kind of arrangement is suggested/approved which the ERG refuse to accept and the party splits.RoyalBlue said:
If she does that, the ERG may well refuse to support the government in a vote of confidence. An election will follow, which the Tories will fight with a leader and PM who no-one has heard of. We will be massacred.kle4 said:Awfully specific to mention 11 Cabinet ministers. Almost feels like they have to make a move now, since it has been declared whether they wanted it to happen or not.
But it doesn't seem like they have any sort of agreed plan for how to get Brexit through, so it really is just another displacement activity. I think everyone on earth who is not a piece of plankton can see that May is a hindrance to any solution now, but even so just declaring she must go without any agreement on what to do doesn't seem likely to improve matters any. You'd just be swapping one person who lacks the votes for anything for another.
These idiots really do just want to depress us completely.
Maybe May should jump the gun and go the Palace to resign tomorrow, and name Lidington as the man to take over. The PM is meant to command the confidence of the Commons, and it is quite clear that there is not one who can command the shared confidence of the Cabinet, let alone the Commons, so it hardly matters if she names him and he struggles to unify things.
It will probably be what happens.
No option seems able to avoid at least a small split, and any amount means they fall, we have a GE where they have a leader no one has heard or/likes, and they lose.
The latter is an extinction level event.0 -
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I think David Moyes would a good caretaker PM, kept West Ham up and might encourage a few more SNP marginalists to vote Tory0
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Preach.kle4 said:I'm going to bed, but this stuff is just bananas. These are the people who are going to tell me Corbyn cannot be let near the rungs of power? Even as they work day and night to show a level of incompetence that shows that however bad he would be - which is probably really bad - it cannot be worse than this. And that's not just on May, it is the whole damn lot of them. A party led by weaklings and fools, and riven with extremist factions at constant war with one another.
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Twas ever thus. All they have to do is agreed on a least worst form of Brexit, rally behind that, and they can survive for at least a few more years in office.Sean_F said:
They deserve to be massacred, but if they are, we're the ones who will suffer.kle4 said:
Tell that to the Cabinet. They've just done that apparently. Stories this detailed are not just hearsay.CarlottaVance said:
The Tories need to:kle4 said:
If you can think of a Brexit scenario which does not end in the Tories getting massacred at a GE I'd love to hear it, because I cannot see it - either the ERG win and we no deal and the party splits, or some kind of arrangement is suggested/approved which the ERG refuse to accept and the party splits.RoyalBlue said:
If she does that, the ERG may well refuse to support the government in a vote of confidence. An election will follow, which the Tories will fight with a leader and PM who no-one has heard of. We will be massacred.kle4 said:Aw
It will probably be what happens.
No option seems able to avoid at least a small split, and any amount means they fall, we have a GE where they have a leader no one has heard or/likes, and they lose.
i) Get 'Brexit' over some sort of line - ideally with the WA agreed, if not punted into the very long grass (which they'll pay dearly for, starting in May in the local and Euro elections)
then
ii) Sort out the leadership. Then give the new leader until 2022 before facing the country.
If they try ii) before i) they'll get massacred, and deserve it.
And many Tories still seem to think a GE is a good thing. I don't know how they do it, but I think the party's best shot is as you suggest dragging it out the full length of the parliament to given them time to recover and rebuild with a new leader. But they don't seem to agree, heck, they think replacing one person with no plan with another with no plan will make a difference!
But they'd rather throw it all away, not achieve any kind of cohesive Brexit, and throw away any chance to do anything else in government. Real smart people.
I'd rather vote SNP right now. I disagree completely with their most fundamental policy, but at least i know they won't be doing something monumentally stupid every day.0 -
Plus he's an expert in guiding people out of Europe without getting sacked.0
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Then they should agree a customs union or whatever it will take to see some form of Brexit delivered, because at the moment Brexit not being delivered at all is quite possible, and the Cabinet clearly have no plan to change that given they are still resisting every back up plan.RoyalBlue said:
If we leave with no deal, the party may lose up to 10 MPs and a few members. If Brexit is not delivered, the party will lose 100 MPs and a majority of its membership.kle4 said:
If you can think of a Brexit scenario which does not end in the Tories getting massacred at a GE I'd love to hear it, because I cannot see it - either the ERG win and we no deal and the party splits, or some kind of arrangement is suggested/approved which the ERG refuse to accept and the party splits.RoyalBlue said:
If she does that, the ERG may well refuse to support the government in a vote of confidence. An election will follow, which the Tories will fight with a leader and PM who no-one has heard of. We will be massacred.kle4 said:Awfully specific to mention 11 Cabinet ministers. Almost feels like they have to make a move now, since it has been declared whether they wanted it to happen or not.
But it doesn't seem like they have any sort of agreed plan for how to get Brexit through, so it really is just another displacement activity. I think everyone on earth who is not a piece of plankton can see that May is a hindrance to any solution now, but even so just declaring she must go without any agreement on what to do doesn't seem likely to improve matters any. You'd just be swapping one person who lacks the votes for anything for another.
These idiots really do just want to depress us completely.
Maybe May should jump the gun and go the Palace to resign tomorrow, and name Lidington as the man to take over. The PM is meant to command the confidence of the Commons, and it is quite clear that there is not one who can command the shared confidence of the Cabinet, let alone the Commons, so it hardly matters if she names him and he struggles to unify things.
It will probably be what happens.
No option seems able to avoid at least a small split, and any amount means they fall, we have a GE where they have a leader no one has heard or/likes, and they lose.
The latter is an extinction level event.
Extinction would be well deserved - something would emerge in its place in time.0 -
It’s all very well to write off the Tory Party. You might have a different view after a decade of a hard left government.kle4 said:
Then they should agree a customs union or whatever it will take to see some form of Brexit delivered, because at the moment Brexit not being delivered at all is quite possible, and the Cabinet clearly have no plan to change that given they are still resisting every back up plan.RoyalBlue said:
If we leave with no deal, the party may lose up to 10 MPs and a few members. If Brexit is not delivered, the party will lose 100 MPs and a majority of its membership.kle4 said:
If you can think of a Brexit scenario which does not end in the Tories getting massacred at a GE I'd love to hear it, because I cannot see it - either the ERG win and we no deal and the party splits, or some kind of arrangement is suggested/approved which the ERG refuse to accept and the party splits.RoyalBlue said:
If she does that, the ERG may well refuse to support the government in a vote of confidence. An election will follow, which the Tories will fight with a leader and PM who no-one has heard of. We will be massacred.kle4 said:Awfully specific to mention 11 Cabinet ministers. Almost feels like they have to make a move now, since it has been declared whether they wanted it to happen or not.
But it doesn't seem like they have any sort of agreed plan for how to get Brexit through, so it really is just another displacement activity. I think everyone on earth who is not a piece of plankton can see that May is a hindrance to any solution now, but even so just declaring she must go without any agreement on what to do doesn't seem likely to improve matters any. You'd just be swapping one person who lacks the votes for anything for another.
These idiots really do just want to depress us completely.
Maybe May should jump the gun and go the Palace to resign tomorrow, and name Lidington as the man to take over. The PM is meant to command the confidence of the Commons, and it is quite clear that there is not one who can command the shared confidence of the Cabinet, let alone the Commons, so it hardly matters if she names him and he struggles to unify things.
It will probably be what happens.
No option seems able to avoid at least a small split, and any amount means they fall, we have a GE where they have a leader no one has heard or/likes, and they lose.
The latter is an extinction level event.
Extinction would be well deserved - something would emerge in its place in time.
Anyway, bedtime.0 -
Watson is the one to watch in all this .RoyalBlue said:
It’s all very well to write off the Tory Party. You might have a different view after a decade of a hard left government.kle4 said:
Then they should agree a customs union or whatever it will take to see some form of Brexit delivered, because at the moment Brexit not being delivered at all is quite possible, and the Cabinet clearly have no plan to change that given they are still resisting every back up plan.RoyalBlue said:
If we leave with no deal, the party may lose up to 10 MPs and a few members. If Brexit is not delivered, the party will lose 100 MPs and a majority of its membership.kle4 said:
If you can think of a Brexit scenario which does not end in the Tories getting massacred at a GE I'd love to hear it, because I cannot see it - either the ERG win and we no deal and the party splits, or some kind of arrangement is suggested/approved which the ERG refuse to accept and the party splits.RoyalBlue said:
If she does that, the ERG may well refuse to support the government in a vote of confidence. An election will follow, which the Tories will fight with a leader and PM who no-one has heard of. We will be massacred.kle4 said:Awfully specific to mention 11 Cabinet ministers. Almost feels like they have to make a move now, since it has been declared whether they wanted it to happen or not.
But it doesn't seem like they have any sort of agreed plan for how to get Brexit through, so it really is just another displacement activity. I think everyone on earth who is not a piece of plankton can see that May is a hindrance to any solution now, but even so just declaring she must go without any agreement on what to do doesn't seem likely to improve matters any. You'd just be swapping one person who lacks the votes for anything for another.
These idiots really do just want to depress us completely.
Maybe May should jump the gun and go the Palace to resign tomorrow, and name Lidington as the man to take over. The PM is meant to command the confidence of the Commons, and it is quite clear that there is not one who can command the shared confidence of the Cabinet, let alone the Commons, so it hardly matters if she names him and he struggles to unify things.
It will probably be what happens.
No option seems able to avoid at least a small split, and any amount means they fall, we have a GE where they have a leader no one has heard or/likes, and they lose.
The latter is an extinction level event.
Extinction would be well deserved - something would emerge in its place in time.
Anyway, bedtime.0 -
Nice one TSE. But I am on Liddington at 140.
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I know absolutely nobody is interested in this or will listen. But there is no such thing as a "temporary" or "interim" PM in the Westminster System. Whoever succeeds May as PM will be the PM, with all the powers of the job.0
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Watson is the one to watch in all this .
After 9 years of a Tory/Coalition austerity led regime we are now stockpiling medicine and operating from a nuclear bunker. I'd love to see a decade of left wing reform
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You sum it up very well Royal. But there are so many posting here who’s allegiance and concern for other parties, so can’t get their brains round why you are right.RoyalBlue said:
If we leave with no deal, the party may lose up to 10 MPs and a few members. If Brexit is not delivered, the party will lose 100 MPs and a majority of its membership.kle4 said:
If you can think of a Brexit scenario which does not end in the Tories getting massacred at a GE I'd love to hear it, because I cannot see it - either the ERG win and we no deal and the party splits, or some kind of arrangement is suggested/approved which the ERG refuse to accept and the party splits.RoyalBlue said:
If she does that, the ERG may well refuse to support the government in a vote of confidence. An election will follow, which the Tories will fight with a leader and PM who no-one has heard of. We will be massacred.kle4 said:Awfully specific to mention 11 Cabinet ministers. Almost feels like they have to make a move now, since it has been declared whether they wanted it to happen or not.
But it doesn't seem like they have any sort of agreed plan for how to get Brexit through, so it really is just another displacement activity. I think everyone on earth who is not a piece of plankton can see that May is a hindrance to any solution now, but even so just declaring she must go without any agreement on what to do doesn't seem likely to improve matters any. You'd just be swapping one person who lacks the votes for anything for another.
These idiots really do just want to depress us completely.
Maybe May should jump the gun and go the Palace to resign tomorrow, and name Lidington as the man to take over. The PM is meant to command the confidence of the Commons, and it is quite clear that there is not one who can command the shared confidence of the Cabinet, let alone the Commons, so it hardly matters if she names him and he struggles to unify things.
It will probably be what happens.
No option seems able to avoid at least a small split, and any amount means they fall, we have a GE where they have a leader no one has heard or/likes, and they lose.
The latter is an extinction level event.0 -
A decade of hard left government may be what we need to ensure we get a party of the right worth voting for. Corbyn no longer frightens and it entirely self inflicted because of Tory ultras.RoyalBlue said:
It’s all very well to write off the Tory Party. You might have a different view after a decade of a hard left government.kle4 said:
Then they stime.RoyalBlue said:
If we leave with no deal, the party may lose up to 10 MPs and a few members. If Brexit is not delivered, the party will lose 100 MPs and a majority of its membership.kle4 said:
If you canRoyalBlue said:
If she does that, the ERG may well refuse to support the government in a vote of confidence. An election will follow, which the Tories will fight with a leader and PM who no-one has heard of. We will be massacred.kle4 said:Awfully specific to mention 11 Cabinet ministers. Almost feels like they have to make a move now, since it has been declared whether they wanted it to happen or not.
But it doesn't seem like they have any sort of agreed plan for how to get Brexit through, so it really is just another displacement activity. I think everyone on earth who is not a piece of plankton can see that May is a hindrance to any solution now, but even so just declaring she must go without any agreement on what to do doesn't seem likely to improve matters any. You'd just be swapping one person who lacks the votes for anything for another.
These idiots really do just want to depress us completely.
Maybe May should jump the gun and go the Palace to resign tomorrow, and name Lidington as the man to take over. The PM is meant to command the confidence of the Commons, and it is quite clear that there is not one who can command the shared confidence of the Cabinet, let alone the Commons, so it hardly matters if she names him and he struggles to unify things.
It will probably be what happens.
No option seems able to avoid at least a small split, and any amount means they fall, we have a GE where they have a leader no one has heard or/likes, and they lose.
The latter is an extinction level event.
Yes, but it's just being more casual in description for someone who would, perhaps openly, state they would only hold the post for awhile, so it is clear enough even if legally the status is no differentviewcode said:I know absolutely nobody is interested in this or will listen. But there is no such thing as a "temporary" or "interim" PM in the Westminster System. Whoever succeeds May as PM will be the PM, with all the powers of the job.
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There won't be a 'decade of hard left government' a Corbyn minority government, propped up by the SNP in all likelihood, would be trailing badly behind a Boris led Tory opposition within a year, it would be Hollande in France but worse. It may even take Umunna to do a Macron and keep Boris out of No 10RoyalBlue said:
It’s all very well to write off the Tory Party. You might have a different view after a decade of a hard left government.kle4 said:
Then they should agree a custod - something would emerge in its place in time.RoyalBlue said:
If we leave with no deal, the party may lose up to 10 MPs and a few members. If Brexit is not delivered, the party will lose 100 MPs and a majority of its membership.kle4 said:
If you can think of a Brexit scenario which does not end in the Tories getting massacred at a GE I'd love to hear it, because I cannot see it - either the ERG win and we no deal and the party splits, or some kind of arrangement is suggested/approved which the ERG refuse to accept and the party splits.RoyalBlue said:
If she does that, the ERG may well refuse to support the government in a vote of confidence. An election will follow, which the Tories will fight with a leader and PM who no-one has heard of. We will be massacred.kle4 said:Awfully specific to mention 11 Cabinet ministers. Almost feels like they have to make a move now, since it has been declared whether they wanted it to happen or not.
But it doesn't seem like they have any sort of agreed plan for how to get Brexit through, so it really is just another displacement activity. I think everyone on earth who is not a piece of plankton can see that May is a hindrance to any solution now, but even so just declaring she must go without any agreement on what to do doesn't seem likely to improve matters any. You'd just be swapping one person who lacks the votes for anything for another.
These idiots really do just want to depress us completely.
Maybe May should jump the gun and go the Palace to resign tomorrow, and name Lidington as the man to take over. The PM is meant to command the confidence of the Commons, and it is quite clear that there is not one who can command the shared confidence of the Cabinet, let alone the Commons, so it hardly matters if she names him and he struggles to unify things.
It will probably be what happens.
No option seems able to avoid at least a small split, and any amount means they fall, we have a GE where they have a leader no one has heard or/likes, and they lose.
The latter is an extinction level event.
Anyway, bedtime.
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I don't think that's an extinction-level event: They'd mostly be losing crazy people and they'd still have the brand. More like a forest fire.RoyalBlue said:
If we leave with no deal, the party may lose up to 10 MPs and a few members. If Brexit is not delivered, the party will lose 100 MPs and a majority of its membership.
The latter is an extinction level event.0 -
After 9 years of a Tory/Coalition austerity led regime we are now stockpiling medicine and operating from a nuclear bunker. I'd love to see a decade of left wing reformDennisBets said:
Watson is the one to watch in all this .
The current performance of the economy suggests there is much to be said for useless government0 -
Betfair has May's Exit date between April-June 2019 at backing odds of 1.01, i.e. 1/100 in old money. Now that's what I call toast!0
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TMay must be exhausted. She should take a week off and leave Parliament to do its thing, come back in April and see what they come up with.0
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Not if he/she undertakes not to stand in the full contested contest to be held 6 months hence, which according to reports is the deal which Lidington has agreed to in taking temporary charge.viewcode said:I know absolutely nobody is interested in this or will listen. But there is no such thing as a "temporary" or "interim" PM in the Westminster System. Whoever succeeds May as PM will be the PM, with all the powers of the job.
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Yes, especially so considering she is a diabetic. One has to be rather surprised that according to reports, her husband is urging her not to resign but to tough it out.edmundintokyo said:TMay must be exhausted. She should take a week off and leave Parliament to do its thing, come back in April and see what they come up with.
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Their leader gave a speech against independence today.kle4 said:
I'd rather vote SNP right now. I disagree completely with their most fundamental policy, but at least i know they won't be doing something monumentally stupid every day.0 -
Yes. And the chances of 'now is not quite the right time' for any replacement must be high.viewcode said:I know absolutely nobody is interested in this or will listen. But there is no such thing as a "temporary" or "interim" PM in the Westminster System. Whoever succeeds May as PM will be the PM, with all the powers of the job.
Though the idea of May handing over the reigns of PM while remaining Party Leader, then resigning and having a full process leadership election while the interim PM stays in place might force the matter, especially if the interim PM couldn't go on the ballot.0 -
I can't believe even the tories think David Fucking Lidington is the answer to anything. Constitutional crisis and political deadlock that sees us staring into the slavering jaws of economic ruin? Well then let's anoint a crumpled looking homoskeptical apparatchik who nobody has heard of as the PM.0
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I very much doubt anyone knows what Philip's advice to Theresa is, other than they themselves.peter_from_putney said:
One has to be rather surprised that according to reports, her husband is urging her not to resign but to tough it out.edmundintokyo said:TMay must be exhausted. She should take a week off and leave Parliament to do its thing, come back in April and see what they come up with.
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Good analogy. There’ll always be a place for a centre-right party capable of governing, and if the Tories want it to be them, clearing out the crazies would be a better starting point than driving away the sane.edmundintokyo said:
I don't think that's an extinction-level event: They'd mostly be losing crazy people and they'd still have the brand. More like a forest fire.RoyalBlue said:
If we leave with no deal, the party may lose up to 10 MPs and a few members. If Brexit is not delivered, the party will lose 100 MPs and a majority of its membership.
The latter is an extinction level event.0 -
Mail on Sunday:
After a torturous 14 hours at the EU Council, the Prime Minister returned to the British residency in Brussels in the early hours of Friday morning and demanded a large whisky.
But back in Westminster, her closest Cabinet colleagues were preparing to hand Theresa May a revolver to go with it.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6843159/Theresa-told-ministers-plot-install-Michael-Gove-No-10-save-Brexit.html0 -
Are we seriously going to end up with someone called 'Lidders' as PM who 99% of the public will never have heard of and whose main claim to fame is winning University Challenge? With his prime objective being to deliver Labour's preferred version of Brexit?Dura_Ace said:I can't believe even the tories think David Fucking Lidington is the answer to anything. Constitutional crisis and political deadlock that sees us staring into the slavering jaws of economic ruin? Well then let's anoint a crumpled looking homoskeptical apparatchik who nobody has heard of as the PM.
The only reason he would be the answer is if you were after the top job and wanted someone who wouldn't last long or have much support to be the interim. Problem is as we have found with Mrs May once you have the job of PM it can be rather tough to remove you.
Shouldn't first dibbs go to the person who came second in the last leadership contest and who according to polls is the most popular Cabinet minister amongst Tory activists. Her regular catfights with the Speaker are one of the few highlights of the last few weeks! Leadsom for leader anyone?...0 -
When all this shit is over the country is going to have to be de torified like the De-Ba'athification of Iraq.0
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0
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Net satisfied scores (OA):
Govt: -74 (Con: -46)
May: -36 (Con: +31)
Corbyn: -51 (Lab: +2)
So there's a 77 point gap in satisfaction among Con voters between the Government & Mrs May. While its true the government's rating can't have much further to fall, replacing Mrs May is unlikely to improve it - unlike the case when Thatcher was ousted.
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2019-03/ipsos-mori-political-monitor-march-2019-tables.pdf0 -
Do you think each of the following has done a good job or a bad job at handling Britain's exit from the European Union? Net 'Good':
Govt: -76 (Con: -56)
May: -35 (Con: +19)
EU: -24
Support delay in UK leaving EU (net)
3 months: +10 (Con: -7)
2 Years: -24 (Con: -62)
So Lidington "2 year delay" is the man for the job?0 -
Can't believe this is the lead story rather than the Mueller Report ... LOL0
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What do we know this evening we didn’t know this morning?MTimT said:Can't believe this is the lead story rather than the Mueller Report ... LOL
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The first sentence of your second para has the answer. And the eventual leadership contest deals with the last sentence of the same para.brendan16 said:
Are we seriously going to end up with someone called 'Lidders' as PM who 99% of the public will never have heard of and whose main claim to fame is winning University Challenge? With his prime objective being to deliver Labour's preferred version of Brexit?Dura_Ace said:I can't believe even the tories think David Fucking Lidington is the answer to anything. Constitutional crisis and political deadlock that sees us staring into the slavering jaws of economic ruin? Well then let's anoint a crumpled looking homoskeptical apparatchik who nobody has heard of as the PM.
The only reason he would be the answer is if you were after the top job and wanted someone who wouldn't last long or have much support to be the interim. Problem is as we have found with Mrs May once you have the job of PM it can be rather tough to remove you.
Shouldn't first dibbs go to the person who came second in the last leadership contest and who according to polls is the most popular Cabinet minister amongst Tory activists. Her regular catfights with the Speaker are one of the few highlights of the last few weeks! Leadsom for leader anyone?...
There's a dirty job to do and someone has to step up and take the crap.0
