This was the precise scenario that I dreamt last night: Mrs May throws in the towel (or loses a VoC); her last duty is to recommend a successor to Her Majesty; the Leader of the Opposition has no rights to first refusal and it would clearly embarass the Queen to recommend Mr Corbyn, who quite clearly does not command the confidence of the House. A senior minister (or former minister: I'm looking at you Mr Clarke) could command such confidence for a short period and for a specific purpose in such unprecedented times. To recommend such a person - or even, to go left-field, and recommend Lord Hague - would not embarass Her Majesty. But in present circumstances, Mrs May could not say, "I will stand down just as soon as my party has got around to electing a new leader".
Gove. Government manages indicative votes. Gove runs with the outcome (probably soft Brexit, CU etc). Probable nine month extension. Euro elections. Referendum still possible but unlikely.
I genuinely think that if May goes now and we get the nine month extension Brexit will not happen.
Which is why Gove makes sense. People hate him already.
What is the point of leaving the EU and remaining in the CU? The good bit of the EU is the Single Market. Being in the CU but not the SM is the worst of all worlds, surely?
Everybody in the Cabinet: It's over, you have to go TMay: No
Which brings me back to my original question: how can May be forced to resign? She won't go voluntarily.
[if she goes voluntarily in the next 24 hours, please feel free to hit me with a large haddock]
In the extreme case, she could be VoNC by the Commons (in alliance with some Tory MPs) who then back a new administration run by Lidington within 14 days.
I somehow doubt the HoC will cobble together the votes for Jeremy Corbyn to be next PM.
Can Lidington win a VONC? What can he give to DUP to get them to vote for him?
Lidington would ignore the DUP and ERG, he would do a deal with Labour and the LDs and SNP to implement SM and/or CU BINO in the PD in return for their support to pass the WA after the meaningful votes and then hold a general election once the Tories have elected a new leader in the autumn. That would enable a Lidington government to survive a VONC for now even if the ERG and DUP voted against it
Corbyn will not do a deal with the Tories. Period.
And FWIW I don't think it very likely Cable would either. If he did then a second referendum would be the price.
Gove. Government manages indicative votes. Gove runs with the outcome (probably soft Brexit, CU etc). Probable nine month extension. Euro elections. Referendum still possible but unlikely.
It won't work, given she won the confidence vote late last year May cannot be challenged again until December. If she goes before then it will be entirely down to her and as we know she is as stubborn as a mule
She can't be deposed as leader but she can be deposed as PM.
Um, can she? She can't be forced to resign. Historically the process is:
a) PM loses a VONC or GE. b) Somebody else commands the confidence of the house c) PM resigns d) That somebody else is appointed PM by HMQ
Are we really going to put the Queen in a position where she has to appoint somebody whose ability to command the house is at the very least unproven?
If the Cabinet tell Mrs May that she has lost their confidence and should resign I think she would. Her position would be hopeless and she has run out of road. If she resigns and the Cabinet appoint Lidington as temporary PM and recommend him to the HM, she would appoint him. He would survive a VONC. Tory MPs and DUP would not want to risk a GE until the new Tory leader was sorted out.
I'm not sure that's plausible. Threats don't work with her. May gets stubborn and inflexible under pressure, which is both a flaw and a strength. If threatened to resign she'll dig in her heels. If advised to resign by Philip she'll resign.
Perhaps he will advise it
Indeed. I think that's the thing that will swing it. Which means the plotters are talking to the wrong May...
Everybody in the Cabinet: It's over, you have to go TMay: No
Which brings me back to my original question: how can May be forced to resign? She won't go voluntarily.
[if she goes voluntarily in the next 24 hours, please feel free to hit me with a large haddock]
In the extreme case, she could be VoNC by the Commons (in alliance with some Tory MPs) who then back a new administration run by Lidington within 14 days.
I somehow doubt the HoC will cobble together the votes for Jeremy Corbyn to be next PM.
Can Lidington win a VONC? What can he give to DUP to get them to vote for him?
I don't think it'd be about the DUP. It'd about LDs + TIGers + some Labour backbenchers backing him. He'd carry about 180+ Tories, 12 LDs, 12 TIGers, and about half-a-dozen independents, and would need 70-80 Labour MPs of the Tom Watson faction.
I'd expect the SNP and a number of Tories to abstain. Against, you'd have Labour loyalists of c.100+ around Corbyn, possibly the DUP and about 80 or so of the ERG.
I'd expect him to win a VoNC by something like 280 to 210 votes, with a good 150 abstentions, and then the business is done over the next 10 weeks or so.
Everybody in the Cabinet: It's over, you have to go TMay: No
Which brings me back to my original question: how can May be forced to resign? She won't go voluntarily.
[if she goes voluntarily in the next 24 hours, please feel free to hit me with a large haddock]
In the extreme case, she could be VoNC by the Commons (in alliance with some Tory MPs) who then back a new administration run by Lidington within 14 days.
I somehow doubt the HoC will cobble together the votes for Jeremy Corbyn to be next PM.
Can Lidington win a VONC? What can he give to DUP to get them to vote for him?
Continued leverage which they lose if there is a GE.
FWIW I have reason to think that Hunt is also open to a deal with Labour, which presumably means customs union.
But remaining in the CU while outside the SM is pretty pointless; we get all the downsides and few of the upsides. We may as well Remain.
Trying to cobble a Brexit deal in panic in 3 weeks is ludicrous. Far better to revoke, participate in the EU elections and take a year, whatever it takes, to work out what we want to do and come up with a realistic well-thought out plan with as much cross-party consensus as possible.
Good question, we have to take into account the quality of recent government decision making, so a terrible candidate is likely to do better than expected.
Everybody in the Cabinet: It's over, you have to go TMay: No
Which brings me back to my original question: how can May be forced to resign? She won't go voluntarily.
[if she goes voluntarily in the next 24 hours, please feel free to hit me with a large haddock]
In the extreme case, she could be VoNC by the Commons (in alliance with some Tory MPs) who then back a new administration run by Lidington within 14 days.
I somehow doubt the HoC will cobble together the votes for Jeremy Corbyn to be next PM.
Can Lidington win a VONC? What can he give to DUP to get them to vote for him?
There seems to be this idea that the DUP is looking for a lot. It isn't. It was interested in May's deal subject to some side assurances.
FWIW I have reason to think that Hunt is also open to a deal with Labour, which presumably means customs union.
But remaining in the CU while outside the SM is pretty pointless; we get all the downsides and few of the upsides. We may as well Remain.
Trying to cobble a Brexit deal in panic in 3 weeks is ludicrous. Far better to revoke, participate in the EU elections and take a year, whatever it takes, to work out what we want to do and come up with a realistic well-thought out plan with as much cross-party consensus as possible.
What is the point of leaving the EU and remaining in the CU? The good bit of the EU is the Single Market. Being in the CU but not the SM is the worst of all worlds, surely?
We may as well Remain as exit on those terms.
And we may well, in the end. After nine months of a soft Brexit exit on the table with angry leavers on one side and remainers calling for a vote on the other.
Would there need to be a formal change of PM? RA Butler was given the role of Acting PM for a few weeks post Suez at the end of 1956 - and again in October 1963 when MacMillan fell ill. On neither occasion was he appointed PM.
Sounds like the best candidate is just "the concept of disappointment".
That rules me out then.
May has to go not because there is someone more popular than her but because she has lost all trust and goodwill with the EU. And that is what we are going to need at the moment.
Of course it will be doubly funny if the Tories tear themselves apart to get a temporary PM in place and then Parliament does the much anticipated taking back control thing and bypasses them anyway.
The idea that in 2019 this country can be governed by a Prime Minister who has not been voted for by anyone is simply outrageous.
The Tories are treating this country and our democracy as a play thing.
Dreadful, dreadful, dreadful.
Brown never won an election. John Major became PM with no election mandate. Callaghan never won an election. Douglas-Home never won an election. Eden (I think) never won an election...
Brown true. And look at the disaster that his Premiership was....
Major and Callaghan both won leadership contents within their Parties so that's false.
You're probably right about Home and Eden but in 2019 shouldn't we have moved on from rich aristocrats stitching up who becomes Prime Minister of the country behind closed doors?
If the Tories want rid of May good. But her replacement should be chosen by a leadership content in the usual way. Anything else is outrageous.
And I would expect Theresa May to help facilitate that by triggering a leadership contest at the first available opportunity.
It won't work, given she won the confidence vote late last year May cannot be challenged again until December. If she goes before then it will be entirely down to her and as we know she is as stubborn as a mule
She can't be deposed as leader but she can be deposed as PM.
Um, can she? She can't be forced to resign. Historically the process is:
a) PM loses a VONC or GE. b) Somebody else commands the confidence of the house c) PM resigns d) That somebody else is appointed PM by HMQ
Are we really going to put the Queen in a position where she has to appoint somebody whose ability to command the house is at the very least unproven?
If the Cabinet tell Mrs May that she has lost their confidence and should resign I think she would. Her position would be hopeless and she has run out of road. If she resigns and the Cabinet appoint Lidington as temporary PM and recommend him to the HM, she would appoint him. He would survive a VONC. Tory MPs and DUP would not want to risk a GE until the new Tory leader was sorted out.
I'm not sure that's plausible. Threats don't work with her. May gets stubborn and inflexible under pressure, which is both a flaw and a strength. If threatened to resign she'll dig in her heels. If advised to resign by Philip she'll resign.
And I doubt if the ERG/DUP would support a confidence vote in a remainer who had not been elected under the party rules.
I think we are about to witness the long-predicted Tory implosion.
Everybody in the Cabinet: It's over, you have to go TMay: No
Which brings me back to my original question: how can May be forced to resign? She won't go voluntarily.
[if she goes voluntarily in the next 24 hours, please feel free to hit me with a large haddock]
In the extreme case, she could be VoNC by the Commons (in alliance with some Tory MPs) who then back a new administration run by Lidington within 14 days.
I somehow doubt the HoC will cobble together the votes for Jeremy Corbyn to be next PM.
Can Lidington win a VONC? What can he give to DUP to get them to vote for him?
Lidington would ignore the DUP and ERG, he would do a deal with Labour and the LDs and SNP to implement SM and/or CU BINO in the PD in return for their support to pass the WA after the meaningful votes and then hold a general election once the Tories have elected a new leader in the autumn. That would enable a Lidington government to survive a VONC for now even if the ERG and DUP voted against it
A picture that somehow makes the concept of Gavin Williamson as Chief Whip even more laughable. Any pictures of the SoS for Defence in the House of Cards?
The idea that in 2019 this country can be governed by a Prime Minister who has not been voted for by anyone is simply outrageous.
The Tories are treating this country and our democracy as a play thing.
Dreadful, dreadful, dreadful.
Brown never won an election. John Major became PM with no election mandate. Callaghan never won an election. Douglas-Home never won an election. Eden (I think) never won an election...
Brown true. And look at the disaster that his Premiership was....
Major and Callaghan both won leadership contents within their Parties so that's false.
You're probably right about Home and Eden but in 2019 shouldn't we have moved on from rich aristocrats stitching up who becomes Prime Minister of the country behind closed doors?
If the Tories want rid of May good. But her replacement should be chosen by a leadership content in the usual way. Anything else it outrageous.
And I would expect Theresa May to help facilitate that by triggering a leadership contest at the first available opportunity.
That's my take.
Who says it won't be? Once the next few weeks' work is done. We obviously can't have a contest now. And May cannot do the work.
The idea that in 2019 this country can be governed by a Prime Minister who has not been voted for by anyone is simply outrageous.
The Tories are treating this country and our democracy as a play thing.
Dreadful, dreadful, dreadful.
Brown never won an election. John Major became PM with no election mandate. Callaghan never won an election. Douglas-Home never won an election. Eden (I think) never won an election...
Brown true. And look at the disaster that his Premiership was....
Major and Callaghan both won leadership contents within their Parties so that's false.
You're probably right about Home and Eden but in 2019 shouldn't we have moved on from rich aristocrats stitching up who becomes Prime Minister of the country behind closed doors?
If the Tories want rid of May good. But her replacement should be chosen by a leadership content in the usual way. Anything else it outrageous.
That's my take.
Outrageous or not, the question is what *will* happen, not what should happen. Bookies only pay out on the former.
This was the precise scenario that I dreamt last night: Mrs May throws in the towel (or loses a VoC); her last duty is to recommend a successor to Her Majesty; the Leader of the Opposition has no rights to first refusal and it would clearly embarass the Queen to recommend Mr Corbyn, who quite clearly does not command the confidence of the House. A senior minister (or former minister: I'm looking at you Mr Clarke) could command such confidence for a short period and for a specific purpose in such unprecedented times. To recommend such a person - or even, to go left-field, and recommend Lord Hague - would not embarass Her Majesty. But in present circumstances, Mrs May could not say, "I will stand down just as soon as my party has got around to electing a new leader".
Stop wearing that technicolor coat to bed Joseph mate
The idea that in 2019 this country can be governed by a Prime Minister who has not been voted for by anyone is simply outrageous.
The Tories are treating this country and our democracy as a play thing.
Dreadful, dreadful, dreadful.
Brown never won an election. John Major became PM with no election mandate. Callaghan never won an election. Douglas-Home never won an election. Eden (I think) never won an election...
Brown true. And look at the disaster that his Premiership was....
Major and Callaghan both won leadership contents within their Parties so that's false.
You're probably right about Home and Eden but in 2019 shouldn't we have moved on from rich aristocrats stitching up who becomes Prime Minister of the country behind closed doors?
If the Tories want rid of May good. But her replacement should be chosen by a leadership content in the usual way. Anything else it outrageous.
And I would expect Theresa May to help facilitate that by triggering a leadership contest at the first available opportunity.
That's my take.
Who says it won't be? Once the next few weeks' work is done. We obviously can't have a contest now. And May cannot do the work.
So we're going to have an illegitimate Prime Minister foisted upon us by a few people in a room who will only be in a power for a few weeks with the sole aim of overturning a referendum result.
Good luck to any Tory trying to sell that when they do eventually have the guts to face the electorate.
FWIW I have reason to think that Hunt is also open to a deal with Labour, which presumably means customs union.
But remaining in the CU while outside the SM is pretty pointless; we get all the downsides and few of the upsides. We may as well Remain.
Trying to cobble a Brexit deal in panic in 3 weeks is ludicrous. Far better to revoke, participate in the EU elections and take a year, whatever it takes, to work out what we want to do and come up with a realistic well-thought out plan with as much cross-party consensus as possible.
I agree, but if A50 is revoked it will never be triggered again. Which is fine by me but would probably upset a few people...
The idea that in 2019 this country can be governed by a Prime Minister who has not been voted for by anyone is simply outrageous.
The Tories are treating this country and our democracy as a play thing.
Dreadful, dreadful, dreadful.
Brown never won an election. John Major became PM with no election mandate. Callaghan never won an election. Douglas-Home never won an election. Eden (I think) never won an election...
Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable
Theresa May offered a hard Brexit. The ERG refused to vote for it.
I hold them beneath contempt.
Was it a hard Brexit? I thought it was a bit of a compromise? Either way I agree they should have voted for it, personally I dont think the Commons should have even got to vote on it at all. But the ERG are still part of one of the two major parties, as out of touch and vain as the rest of them.
Everybody in the Cabinet: It's over, you have to go TMay: No
Which brings me back to my original question: how can May be forced to resign? She won't go voluntarily.
[if she goes voluntarily in the next 24 hours, please feel free to hit me with a large haddock]
In the extreme case, she could be VoNC by the Commons (in alliance with some Tory MPs) who then back a new administration run by Lidington within 14 days.
I somehow doubt the HoC will cobble together the votes for Jeremy Corbyn to be next PM.
Can Lidington win a VONC? What can he give to DUP to get them to vote for him?
There seems to be this idea that the DUP is looking for a lot. It isn't. It was interested in May's deal subject to some side assurances.
Like I've said before, a PM with basic political skills could have got this deal through. And dealing with the DUP wasn't and isn't surmountable.
May's view is that she decides and then everyone else does as they're told.
If she'd won GE2017 she'd have acted like a supreme elected dictator.
What is the point of leaving the EU and remaining in the CU? The good bit of the EU is the Single Market. Being in the CU but not the SM is the worst of all worlds, surely?
We may as well Remain as exit on those terms.
Customs Union doesn't involve Freedom of Movement.
The idea that in 2019 this country can be governed by a Prime Minister who has not been voted for by anyone is simply outrageous.
The Tories are treating this country and our democracy as a play thing.
Dreadful, dreadful, dreadful.
Brown never won an election. John Major became PM with no election mandate. Callaghan never won an election. Douglas-Home never won an election. Eden (I think) never won an election...
Brown true. And look at the disaster that his Premiership was....
Major and Callaghan both won leadership contents within their Parties so that's false.
You're probably right about Home and Eden but in 2019 shouldn't we have moved on from rich aristocrats stitching up who becomes Prime Minister of the country behind closed doors?
If the Tories want rid of May good. But her replacement should be chosen by a leadership content in the usual way. Anything else it outrageous.
And I would expect Theresa May to help facilitate that by triggering a leadership contest at the first available opportunity.
That's my take.
Who says it won't be? Once the next few weeks' work is done. We obviously can't have a contest now. And May cannot do the work.
So we're going to have an illegitimate Prime Minister foisted upon us by a few people in a room who will only be in a power for a few weeks with the sole aim of overturning a referendum result.
Good luck to any Tory trying to sell that when they do eventually have the guts to face the electorate.
Tory Party has taken leave of its senses.
Soft Brexit isn't overturning the result. Just another small step that may eventually lead that way. But Brexit is already on the slippery slope courtesy of May and the ERG.
The idea that in 2019 this country can be governed by a Prime Minister who has not been voted for by anyone is simply outrageous.
The Tories are treating this country and our democracy as a play thing.
Dreadful, dreadful, dreadful.
Brown never won an election. John Major became PM with no election mandate. Callaghan never won an election. Douglas-Home never won an election. Eden (I think) never won an election...
Brown true. And look at the disaster that his Premiership was....
Major and Callaghan both won leadership contents within their Parties so that's false.
You're probably right about Home and Eden but in 2019 shouldn't we have moved on from rich aristocrats stitching up who becomes Prime Minister of the country behind closed doors?
If the Tories want rid of May good. But her replacement should be chosen by a leadership content in the usual way. Anything else it outrageous.
And I would expect Theresa May to help facilitate that by triggering a leadership contest at the first available opportunity.
That's my take.
Who says it won't be? Once the next few weeks' work is done. We obviously can't have a contest now. And May cannot do the work.
So we're going to have an illegitimate Prime Minister foisted upon us by a few people in a room who will only be in a power for a few weeks with the sole aim of overturning a referendum result.
Good luck to any Tory trying to sell that when they do eventually have the guts to face the electorate.
Tory Party has taken leave of its senses.
The Party took leave of its senses when it banged the desks in support of Theresa May after the debacle of the 2017 election.
Everybody in the Cabinet: It's over, you have to go TMay: No
Which brings me back to my original question: how can May be forced to resign? She won't go voluntarily.
[if she goes voluntarily in the next 24 hours, please feel free to hit me with a large haddock]
In the extreme case, she could be VoNC by the Commons (in alliance with some Tory MPs) who then back a new administration run by Lidington within 14 days.
I somehow doubt the HoC will cobble together the votes for Jeremy Corbyn to be next PM.
Can Lidington win a VONC? What can he give to DUP to get them to vote for him?
Lidington would ignore the DUP and ERG, he would do a deal with Labour and the LDs and SNP to implement SM and/or CU BINO in the PD in return for their support to pass the WA after the meaningful votes and then hold a general election once the Tories have elected a new leader in the autumn. That would enable a Lidington government to survive a VONC for now even if the ERG and DUP voted against it
Corbyn will not do a deal with the Tories. Period.
And FWIW I don't think it very likely Cable would either. If he did then a second referendum would be the price.
Most Labour backbenchers would for BINO though, Lidington probably would not need the LDs but he could offer Cable a Cabinet position if needed. Of course this all depends on the indicative votes going for BINO not EUref2, if they went for the latter even that could be on the cards for a Lidington government
The idea that in 2019 this country can be governed by a Prime Minister who has not been voted for by anyone is simply outrageous.
The Tories are treating this country and our democracy as a play thing.
Dreadful, dreadful, dreadful.
Brown never won an election. John Major became PM with no election mandate. Callaghan never won an election. Douglas-Home never won an election. Eden (I think) never won an election...
Brown true. And look at the disaster that his Premiership was....
Major and Callaghan both won leadership contents within their Parties so that's false.
You're probably right about Home and Eden but in 2019 shouldn't we have moved on from rich aristocrats stitching up who becomes Prime Minister of the country behind closed doors?
If the Tories want rid of May good. But her replacement should be chosen by a leadership content in the usual way. Anything else it outrageous.
And I would expect Theresa May to help facilitate that by triggering a leadership contest at the first available opportunity.
That's my take.
Who says it won't be? Once the next few weeks' work is done. We obviously can't have a contest now. And May cannot do the work.
So we're going to have an illegitimate Prime Minister foisted upon us by a few people in a room who will only be in a power for a few weeks with the sole aim of overturning a referendum result.
Good luck to any Tory trying to sell that when they do eventually have the guts to face the electorate.
Tory Party has taken leave of its senses.
The Party took leave of its senses when it banged the desks in support of Theresa May after the debacle of the 2017 election.
FWIW I have reason to think that Hunt is also open to a deal with Labour, which presumably means customs union.
Do you think Corbyn would do a deal with Hunt?
Because I don't.
The deal will be done with Watson.
Corbyn doesn't want a deal. We all know that.
Labour's price is the CU (and some detail around rights). The LD/TIG price is Ref2. Suspect government will prefer Labour's.
Watson would not do a deal that the majority of the PLP and party membership could not support. And their price would be a second referendum. Any deal with any opposition party will involve a second referendum. And the ERG will never agree to that.
Who was the last PM not to have been an election winning LOTO, nor a former holder of one of the big 3 posts. Ps, not a quiz question, a genuine inquiry.
I thought Douglas-Home, but he was Foreign Secretary first. It'll probably have to be the pre-WWII ones.
Everybody in the Cabinet: It's over, you have to go TMay: No
Which brings me back to my original question: how can May be forced to resign? She won't go voluntarily.
[if she goes voluntarily in the next 24 hours, please feel free to hit me with a large haddock]
In the extreme case, she could be VoNC by the Commons (in alliance with some Tory MPs) who then back a new administration run by Lidington within 14 days.
I somehow doubt the HoC will cobble together the votes for Jeremy Corbyn to be next PM.
Can Lidington win a VONC? What can he give to DUP to get them to vote for him?
Lidington would ignore the DUP and ERG, he would do a deal with Labour and the LDs and SNP to implement SM and/or CU BINO in the PD in return for their support to pass the WA after the meaningful votes and then hold a general election once the Tories have elected a new leader in the autumn. That would enable a Lidington government to survive a VONC for now even if the ERG and DUP voted against it
I'm not sure how much of a party Lidington would have left if he pursued that course.
Everybody in the Cabinet: It's over, you have to go TMay: No
Which brings me back to my original question: how can May be forced to resign? She won't go voluntarily.
[if she goes voluntarily in the next 24 hours, please feel free to hit me with a large haddock]
In the extreme case, she could be VoNC by the Commons (in alliance with some Tory MPs) who then back a new administration run by Lidington within 14 days.
I somehow doubt the HoC will cobble together the votes for Jeremy Corbyn to be next PM.
Can Lidington win a VONC? What can he give to DUP to get them to vote for him?
Lidington would ignore the DUP and ERG, he would do a deal with Labour and the LDs and SNP to implement SM and/or CU BINO in the PD in return for their support to pass the WA after the meaningful votes and then hold a general election once the Tories have elected a new leader in the autumn. That would enable a Lidington government to survive a VONC for now even if the ERG and DUP voted against it
Corbyn will not do a deal with the Tories. Period.
And FWIW I don't think it very likely Cable would either. If he did then a second referendum would be the price.
Most Labour backbenchers would for BINO though, Lidington probably would not need the LDs but he could offer Cable a Cabinet position if needed. Of course this all depends on the indicative votes going for BINO not EUref2, if they went for the latter even that could be on the cards for a Lidington government
I would be very surprised if LDs took a formal position with the Tories. Too much bad experience after last time
Lots of discussion of May resigning and someone replacing her temporarily, but surely the plotters can't stop others standing in a leadership election and the EU won't go ahead with a PM who won't be in place for most of the process? Even if they would, what if the acting PM loses the leadership election and our Brexit policy changes all over again?
Lots of discussion of May resigning and someone replacing her temporarily, but surely the plotters can't stop others standing in a leadership election and the EU won't go ahead with a PM who won't be in place for most of the process? Even if they would, what if the acting PM loses the leadership election and our Brexit policy changes all over again?
Yes they would. They want someone else to deal with. They want a softer Brexit. And they want us to ask for a longer extension, provided we have a plan.
Of course this "quick switch" to Liddington also rely's on Theresa May playing along.
She could just announce, tomorrow, that she's standing down as Con leader and triggering a leadership contest but will remain as PM until the leader is chosen by the Party.
Would be absolutely nothing the Cabinet schemers could do about that...
Maybe that's what all the meetings with Boris have been about this week?
Technically, her involvement would be required because her last act would be to advise Her Majesty to call for Mr Liddington.
Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable
Theresa May offered a hard Brexit. The ERG refused to vote for it.
I hold them beneath contempt.
Was it a hard Brexit? I thought it was a bit of a compromise? Either way I agree they should have voted for it, personally I dont think the Commons should have even got to vote on it at all. But the ERG are still part of one of the two major parties, as out of touch and vain as the rest of them.
It was. Ed Conway did an analysis on it.
Most of our economy is services, and it got us out of all of those aspects of the single market, plus of course the customs union once the backstop arrangements had been superseded, and no free movement.
Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable
Did you predict that it would be the ERG who would be the biggest opponents of Brexit.
No.. I didnt predict what I just said was "almost too predictable" either! I really didn't believe they had it in them to filibuster the public like this.
So long as it's not bloody Boris or one of the ERG mob.
If they want an interim PM to get some goodwill and, importantly, time from Brussels while we work out what the hell we want to do, there is only one man.
Ken Clarke.
And, yeah, I know all the objections. But he has been a rare voice of sanity in recent weeks and has been loyal. We need someone experienced not any of the numpties and loons currently masquerading as Cabinet Ministers. And he might have a chance of getting some cross-party consensus on the way forward.
Fuck off. The man who confessed he "hadn't read the Maastricht Treaty" despite voting for it, and refusing a referendum on it, because, what, he can't read Dutch? He isn't a big reader? No, he didn't read it because he couldn't be fucking arsed. Even tho it handed over huge chunks of sovereignty, and is one of THE main reasons we are where we are.
Until europhiles like Clarke are held to account, then there will be no peace. Sure, arraign the mad sceptics who promised nothing but good from a Leave vote, but at the same time we must torment and abjure the europhiles who lazily, arrogantly and complacently led us to this dark place.
There are a lot of unsupported assumptions in this post. I’m not sure where to start. Everyone I speak to wants the whole thing called off as a disaster. We move in very different circles it seems.
I’d remind you that the current elected Parliament has a fresher deomocratic mandate than the referendum. Parliament is made up of its members, who are ultimately responsible to their constituents and their constituents alone. They don’t like what they are doing then they will remove them. That’s how a parliamentary democracy in our system works. My home town of Canterbury had a Brexiteer MP form30 years and a Tory MP forever, the remain voters threw him out in 2017 to thwart Brexit. That’s democracy. An MP for Aberdeen should not be bound by voters from Acton. If they don’t like what he does they’ll remove him. You want a different system of direct democracy, then propose it and work for it.
In any event most HAVE been working for Brexit. Just not the version you regard as real. Micheal Gove, Nigel Farafe and Boris Johnson each disagree as to what Brexit means? How should Parliament then decide what this “instruction” is? Leaving without a deal was ruled out by the official Leave campaign. There’s a way out of the EU, however, the but leaver MPs refuse to take it. Their problem and yours - not mine.
I don’t like the way the EU works, and would be delighted with an EEA/EFTA Brexit (which I appreciate you don’t regard as Brexit at all for some reason), but while bills through our Parliament require the consent of the House of Lords and the Queen, you might want to be careful where you pitch those “undemocratic” stones.
Doug, what your post ignores - and I realise that may be because you attach no weight to it whereas I do - is that a large majority of those MPs who were elected in 2017 stood on both personal and party manifestos that were explicit that they would honour the result of the referendum. Now I do realise we tend to excuse party manifestos, though to be honest I don't think we should, but personal manifestos cannot be excused so easily. With the honourable exception of Ken Clarke and the SNP, practically every notable Remain campaigner had a statement in their personal manifestos that they would support Brexit. That includes all three of the TIG Tories.
So I would suggest that even if we say that they are at liberty to ignore their manifestos, the 2017 democratic mandate you mention was clearly based upon promises from all those MPs that they would vote in Parliament for us to Leave the EU.
I do however agree with you about the preferred destination.
Could Lidington be the Robert Peel of his age? Avoids hard Brexit just as Peel ensured Corn Laws Repeal with the support of the opposition but against the majority of his party and just as Peelites then joined with the Whigs to form the Liberals leaving the remaining Tories to move to a protectionist ticket so many Tory Remainers could defect to TIG leaving the remaining Tories to move to a hard Brexit ticket
Everybody in the Cabinet: It's over, you have to go TMay: No
Which brings me back to my original question: how can May be forced to resign? She won't go voluntarily.
[if she goes voluntarily in the next 24 hours, please feel free to hit me with a large haddock]
In the extreme case, she could be VoNC by the Commons (in alliance with some Tory MPs) who then back a new administration run by Lidington within 14 days.
I somehow doubt the HoC will cobble together the votes for Jeremy Corbyn to be next PM.
Can Lidington win a VONC? What can he give to DUP to get them to vote for him?
Lidington would ignore the DUP and ERG, he would do a deal with Labour and the LDs and SNP to implement SM and/or CU BINO in the PD in return for their support to pass the WA after the meaningful votes and then hold a general election once the Tories have elected a new leader in the autumn. That would enable a Lidington government to survive a VONC for now even if the ERG and DUP voted against it
I'm not sure how much of a party Lidington would have left if he pursued that course.
Parliament is going to go soft Brexit, regardless of the Tory party. The question is who best from the Tories to finesse it (and take the blame).
Everybody in the Cabinet: It's over, you have to go TMay: No
Which brings me back to my original question: how can May be forced to resign? She won't go voluntarily.
[if she goes voluntarily in the next 24 hours, please feel free to hit me with a large haddock]
In the extreme case, she could be VoNC by the Commons (in alliance with some Tory MPs) who then back a new administration run by Lidington within 14 days.
I somehow doubt the HoC will cobble together the votes for Jeremy Corbyn to be next PM.
Can Lidington win a VONC? What can he give to DUP to get them to vote for him?
There seems to be this idea that the DUP is looking for a lot. It isn't. It was interested in May's deal subject to some side assurances.
Like I've said before, a PM with basic political skills could have got this deal through. And dealing with the DUP wasn't and isn't surmountable.
May's view is that she decides and then everyone else does as they're told.
If she'd won GE2017 she'd have acted like a supreme elected dictator.
Yes now is not the time foe she decides as everyone follows
Lots of discussion of May resigning and someone replacing her temporarily, but surely the plotters can't stop others standing in a leadership election and the EU won't go ahead with a PM who won't be in place for most of the process? Even if they would, what if the acting PM loses the leadership election and our Brexit policy changes all over again?
Yes they would. They want someone else to deal with. They want a softer Brexit. And they want us to ask for a longer extension, provided we have a plan.
But we wouldn't have a plan. Or to be more precise, we would have absolutely no way of promising that our plan would last more than a matter of weeks or short months.
Grayling is the one. He will go all out for No Deal Brexit and end up remaining by mistake. And si everyone is happy. Like the time he got clobbered £30 million for antitrust behaviour with the No Deal ferries but didn't manage to do anything antitrust or otherwise. So Eurotunnel can pocket the cash without actually being damaged.
If we are going to have a foreigner I would rather have Barnier. As I have said on here a number of times before he has played the whole thing with such a straight bat and with a clear sense of honour that I suspect he is a secret fan of our noble game of cricket.
Comments
It is is entirely possible the final two could be a two remainers or one remainer and one former remainer.
We may as well Remain as exit on those terms.
And FWIW I don't think it very likely Cable would either. If he did then a second referendum would be the price.
I'd expect the SNP and a number of Tories to abstain. Against, you'd have Labour loyalists of c.100+ around Corbyn, possibly the DUP and about 80 or so of the ERG.
I'd expect him to win a VoNC by something like 280 to 210 votes, with a good 150 abstentions, and then the business is done over the next 10 weeks or so.
Trying to cobble a Brexit deal in panic in 3 weeks is ludicrous. Far better to revoke, participate in the EU elections and take a year, whatever it takes, to work out what we want to do and come up with a realistic well-thought out plan with as much cross-party consensus as possible.
Actually, scratch that, they managed to vote against Brexit twice.
https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/1109571628277657600
Because I don't.
Major and Callaghan both won leadership contents within their Parties so that's false.
You're probably right about Home and Eden but in 2019 shouldn't we have moved on from rich aristocrats stitching up who becomes Prime Minister of the country behind closed doors?
If the Tories want rid of May good. But her replacement should be chosen by a leadership content in the usual way. Anything else is outrageous.
And I would expect Theresa May to help facilitate that by triggering a leadership contest at the first available opportunity.
That's my take.
Corbyn doesn't want a deal. We all know that.
Even Gove is a bad un in their eyes.
I hold them beneath contempt.
Good luck to any Tory trying to sell that when they do eventually have the guts to face the electorate.
Tory Party has taken leave of its senses.
May's view is that she decides and then everyone else does as they're told.
If she'd won GE2017 she'd have acted like a supreme elected dictator.
Which is why it's (superficially) popular.
I must get my stockpiling finished before the panic-buying starts.
Come forth, PM Grayling/Williamson.
NURSE!
NURSE!
https://twitter.com/fifimellersh/status/1109581840195698688
Most of our economy is services, and it got us out of all of those aspects of the single market, plus of course the customs union once the backstop arrangements had been superseded, and no free movement.
Until europhiles like Clarke are held to account, then there will be no peace. Sure, arraign the mad sceptics who promised nothing but good from a Leave vote, but at the same time we must torment and abjure the europhiles who lazily, arrogantly and complacently led us to this dark place.
So I would suggest that even if we say that they are at liberty to ignore their manifestos, the 2017 democratic mandate you mention was clearly based upon promises from all those MPs that they would vote in Parliament for us to Leave the EU.
I do however agree with you about the preferred destination.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1109583231534415878