Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable
Theresa May offered a hard Brexit. The ERG refused to vote for it.
I hold them beneath contempt.
Was it a hard Brexit? I thought it was a bit of a compromise? Either way I agree they should have voted for it, personally I dont think the Commons should have even got to vote on it at all. But the ERG are still part of one of the two major parties, as out of touch and vain as the rest of them.
It was. Ed Conway did an analysis on it.
Most of our economy is services, and it got us out of all of those aspects of the single market, plus of course the customs union once the backstop arrangements had been superseded, and no free movement.
OK, I wasn't being facetious, I didn't really look at the deal, I just thought MP's should back whatever the PM came back with as if they were crossing the t's and dotting the... lower case j's. IMO the whole thing was all about FOM anyway, but even if that hadn't been taken care of, it was better to back it, get out, then take it from there
Could Lidington be the Robert Peel of his age? Avoids hard Brexit just as Peel ensured Corn Laws Repeal with the support of the opposition but against the majority of his party and just as Peelites then joined with the Whigs to form the Liberals leaving the remaining Tories to move to a protectionist ticket so many Tory Remainers could defect to TIG leaving the remaining Tories to move to a hard Brexit ticket
Dunno. Can't see a future me drinking in the David Lidington Free House. But, strange things do keep happening.
Of course this "quick switch" to Liddington also rely's on Theresa May playing along.
She could just announce, tomorrow, that she's standing down as Con leader and triggering a leadership contest but will remain as PM until the leader is chosen by the Party.
Would be absolutely nothing the Cabinet schemers could do about that...
Maybe that's what all the meetings with Boris have been about this week?
Technically, her involvement would be required because her last act would be to advise Her Majesty to call for Mr Liddington.
Funnily enough what GIN is saying is what the BBC's guy just said on the 1015 news - that May would resign as Tory leader whilst staying in office as PM meantime. But I reckon he was out of the loop preparing for his TV slot, missing the breaking gossip. And May as PM is the problem, anyhow.
FWIW I have reason to think that Hunt is also open to a deal with Labour, which presumably means customs union.
Do you think Corbyn would do a deal with Hunt?
Because I don't.
The deal will be done with Watson.
Corbyn doesn't want a deal. We all know that.
Labour's price is the CU (and some detail around rights). The LD/TIG price is Ref2. Suspect government will prefer Labour's.
Would they really deliver it though? I mean, it's not really about the CU, right? It's about being against the government's thing without being against brexit. If PM Post-TMay goes off to Brussels and comes back with a CU plan, won't Labour just vote that down too? It's not like there won't be anything to criticize it for.
Can we please have a proper referendum that will result in a Condorcet winner?
It's dead simple. The ballot paper contains three questions:
Deal or No Deal? Deal or Remain? No Deal or Remain?
If No Deal really is the will of the people, it will win. But I suspect that almost everyone who claims "Remaining in the EU is better than this deal," would actually pick "Deal" on the old Deal vs Remain question.
If we are going to have a foreigner I would rather have Barnier. As I have said on here a number of times before he has played the whole thing with such a straight bat and with a clear sense of honour that I suspect he is a secret fan of our noble game of cricket.
I would agree however since he's French can he change his nationality to Norman?
The Labour leadership will not work with any Tory. They will present demands and will offer no compromise from them. They will be hoping and praying for Gove or Hunt to takeover. Like most of us, they’ll have no idea who Lidington is.
Who was the last PM not to have been an election winning LOTO, nor a former holder of one of the big 3 posts. Ps, not a quiz question, a genuine inquiry.
I thought Douglas-Home, but he was Foreign Secretary first. It'll probably have to be the pre-WWII ones.
I can't think of one since the Great Reform Act who was not LotO (to the extent that that post existed) or holder of one of the three big posts at the time they became PM. Churchill is the only person I can think of who at the time was not in this category, but he had in previous decades been Home Sec. and Chancellor.
Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable
isam you're back! Long time, no see!
Yes! A surprise to me too.
Its like the scene in The Godfather where Don Corleone cannot refuse a request on the occasion of his daughter's wedding day, the PB equivalent is a 15th anniversary...
If we are going to have a foreigner I would rather have Barnier. As I have said on here a number of times before he has played the whole thing with such a straight bat and with a clear sense of honour that I suspect he is a secret fan of our noble game of cricket.
Yes, we could do a lot worse!
More seriously, this is a situation like the Tories in 1997 and Labour in 2010, when a party has hung on too long and is simply at the end of its tether. I can't see any of the candidates forming a stable government at this point.
If we are going to have a foreigner I would rather have Barnier. As I have said on here a number of times before he has played the whole thing with such a straight bat and with a clear sense of honour that I suspect he is a secret fan of our noble game of cricket.
William of Orange was only asked to take the throne because he was married to Mary II, who was daughter of James II.
Could Lidington be the Robert Peel of his age? Avoids hard Brexit just as Peel ensured Corn Laws Repeal with the support of the opposition but against the majority of his party and just as Peelites then joined with the Whigs to form the Liberals leaving the remaining Tories to move to a protectionist ticket so many Tory Remainers could defect to TIG leaving the remaining Tories to move to a hard Brexit ticket
Wrong historical analogy. Brexit is not the Corn Laws redux, it is the one after that: tariff reform. Theresa May is Stanley Baldwin.
Tory Party split over tariff reform -- free trade or Imperial preference. Baldwin called an unnecessary election -- and lost. Baldwin was accused of putting party before country. Baldwin spent his holidays taking long walks.
I reckon it's more personal than that - she won't hand over to any of her actual rivals.
Bizarre, but typical, that May apparently thinks it is within her power to decide who she will hand over to. But that presumably kills Lidington's chance, if he ever had one.
FWIW I have reason to think that Hunt is also open to a deal with Labour, which presumably means customs union.
But remaining in the CU while outside the SM is pretty pointless; we get all the downsides and few of the upsides. We may as well Remain.
Trying to cobble a Brexit deal in panic in 3 weeks is ludicrous. Far better to revoke, participate in the EU elections and take a year, whatever it takes, to work out what we want to do and come up with a realistic well-thought out plan with as much cross-party consensus as possible.
I thought you were up for a CU + SM Brexit?
It seems to me to be a bit pointless. We end up following rules without having a say in them. That’s not taking back control. In fact, it’s humiliating for a self-respecting country. It’s just a formal version of May kicking her heels in a side room while the EU decided what extension they would grant.
FWIW I have reason to think that Hunt is also open to a deal with Labour, which presumably means customs union.
Do you think Corbyn would do a deal with Hunt?
Because I don't.
The deal will be done with Watson.
Corbyn doesn't want a deal. We all know that.
Labour's price is the CU (and some detail around rights). The LD/TIG price is Ref2. Suspect government will prefer Labour's.
Watson would not do a deal that the majority of the PLP and party membership could not support. And their price would be a second referendum. Any deal with any opposition party will involve a second referendum. And the ERG will never agree to that.
The ERG will clearly vote against anything (other than no deal) and therefore can, and must, be written off if the crisis is to be solved. That much is obvious.
Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable
isam you're back! Long time, no see!
Yes! A surprise to me too.
Its like the scene in The Godfather where Don Corleone cannot refuse a request on the occasion of his daughter's wedding day, the PB equivalent is a 15th anniversary...
Great to see you! Hope life and work treating you well.
Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable
isam you're back! Long time, no see!
Yes! A surprise to me too.
Its like the scene in The Godfather where Don Corleone cannot refuse a request on the occasion of his daughter's wedding day, the PB equivalent is a 15th anniversary...
Great to see you! Hope life and work treating you well.
Thanks, actually I cant complain. Same back to you!
The Labour leadership will not work with any Tory. They will present demands and will offer no compromise from them. They will be hoping and praying for Gove or Hunt to takeover. Like most of us, they’ll have no idea who Lidington is.
Course they will compromise.
OK what I mean is Tory capitulation and acceptance of #CorbynsCustomsUnion
Deal signed with Donald Tusk singing Ohhhhh Jeeèrrŕemmmy Cooooorbyn
The ERG will clearly vote against anything (other than no deal) and therefore can, and must, be written off if the crisis is to be solved. That much is obvious.
ERG will vote against any EU relationship short of mining the Channel.
Corbyn will whip against anything the Tories suggest.
Most of Labour backbench and SNP/LDs/Tig will vote against anything that involves leaving.
The DUP will just say no to everything out of habit.
FWIW I have reason to think that Hunt is also open to a deal with Labour, which presumably means customs union.
But remaining in the CU while outside the SM is pretty pointless; we get all the downsides and few of the upsides. We may as well Remain.
Trying to cobble a Brexit deal in panic in 3 weeks is ludicrous. Far better to revoke, participate in the EU elections and take a year, whatever it takes, to work out what we want to do and come up with a realistic well-thought out plan with as much cross-party consensus as possible.
I thought you were up for a CU + SM Brexit?
It seems to me to be a bit pointless. We end up following rules without having a say in them. That’s not taking back control. In fact, it’s humiliating for a self-respecting country. It’s just a formal version of May kicking her heels in a side room while the EU decided what extension they would grant.
Well that's why I oppose the backstop, but if you're against that what are you in favour of?
FWIW I have reason to think that Hunt is also open to a deal with Labour, which presumably means customs union.
But remaining in the CU while outside the SM is pretty pointless; we get all the downsides and few of the upsides. We may as well Remain.
Trying to cobble a Brexit deal in panic in 3 weeks is ludicrous. Far better to revoke, participate in the EU elections and take a year, whatever it takes, to work out what we want to do and come up with a realistic well-thought out plan with as much cross-party consensus as possible.
I thought you were up for a CU + SM Brexit?
It seems to me to be a bit pointless. We end up following rules without having a say in them. That’s not taking back control. In fact, it’s humiliating for a self-respecting country. It’s just a formal version of May kicking her heels in a side room while the EU decided what extension they would grant.
So that goes on the table for the next six months, while your perfectly sensible observations gradually sink in; meanwhile the ERG burst their veins trashing the proposal as not Brexit. Then we have a vote between the new proposal and Remain. Sorted.
Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable
isam you're back! Long time, no see!
Yes! A surprise to me too.
Its like the scene in The Godfather where Don Corleone cannot refuse a request on the occasion of his daughter's wedding day, the PB equivalent is a 15th anniversary...
So what payback are you expecting to make for the request being fulfilled? From memory in the end the bloke (an undertaker) had to make Sonny Corleone's corpse respectable for his mamma.
Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable
isam you're back! Long time, no see!
Yes! A surprise to me too.
Its like the scene in The Godfather where Don Corleone cannot refuse a request on the occasion of his daughter's wedding day, the PB equivalent is a 15th anniversary...
Great to see you! Hope life and work treating you well.
Thanks, actually I cant complain. Same back to you!
The ERG will clearly vote against anything (other than no deal) and therefore can, and must, be written off if the crisis is to be solved. That much is obvious.
ERG will vote against any EU relationship short of mining the Channel.
Corbyn will whip against anything the Tories suggest.
Most of Labour backbench and SNP/LDs/Tig will vote against anything that involves leaving.
The DUP will just say no to everything out of habit.
How can anyone pass anything?
Not really true, indicative votes will be free votes and most Labour backbenchers come from Leave seats and would happily vote for BINO, as may even the SNP given over a third of SNP voters voted Leave
If we are going to have a foreigner I would rather have Barnier. As I have said on here a number of times before he has played the whole thing with such a straight bat and with a clear sense of honour that I suspect he is a secret fan of our noble game of cricket.
The ERG will clearly vote against anything (other than no deal) and therefore can, and must, be written off if the crisis is to be solved. That much is obvious.
ERG will vote against any EU relationship short of mining the Channel.
Corbyn will whip against anything the Tories suggest.
Most of Labour backbench and SNP/LDs/Tig will vote against anything that involves leaving.
The DUP will just say no to everything out of habit.
How can anyone pass anything?
We just have to hope that somewhere between the sensible wings of the two main parties there is some sort of consensus. Politicians' reputations are being trashed and they will want to resolve this too. And whipping's effectiveness is much reduced in both main parties already.
I really thought that one didn't work. The character in the film was warning the person not to say it again or else, not asking him to
Quite right. Would be cracking on a pro Brexit anti 2nd ref march though.
Yes.
What really surprised me was the lack of attention paid to the claim that the petition organiser had been guilty of some pretty nasty threatening comments towards Theresa May, as well as talking of modifying weapons to use etc. It was on Guido, so maybe people know it to be overstated, but in the light of the murder of Jo Cox I thought people would be appalled at such behavior rather than following it in gung ho
Could Lidington be the Robert Peel of his age? Avoids hard Brexit just as Peel ensured Corn Laws Repeal with the support of the opposition but against the majority of his party and just as Peelites then joined with the Whigs to form the Liberals leaving the remaining Tories to move to a protectionist ticket so many Tory Remainers could defect to TIG leaving the remaining Tories to move to a hard Brexit ticket
Wrong historical analogy. Brexit is not the Corn Laws redux, it is the one after that: tariff reform. Theresa May is Stanley Baldwin.
Tory Party split over tariff reform -- free trade or Imperial preference. Baldwin called an unnecessary election -- and lost. Baldwin was accused of putting party before country. Baldwin spent his holidays taking long walks.
If we are going to have a foreigner I would rather have Barnier. As I have said on here a number of times before he has played the whole thing with such a straight bat and with a clear sense of honour that I suspect he is a secret fan of our noble game of cricket.
I really thought that one didn't work. The character in the film was warning the person not to say it again or else, not asking him to
Quite right. Would be cracking on a pro Brexit anti 2nd ref march though.
Yes.
What really surprised me was the lack of attention paid to the claim that the petition organiser had been guilty of some pretty nasty threatening comments towards Theresa May, as well as talking of modifying weapons to use etc. It was on Guido, so maybe people know it to be overstated, but in the light of the murder of Jo Cox I thought people would be appalled at such behavior rather than following it in gung ho
"Mrs Georgiadou has faced criticism over posts she allegedly made on social media, using threatening language about the prime minister. She said she had no memory of the posts."
FWIW I have reason to think that Hunt is also open to a deal with Labour, which presumably means customs union.
But remaining in the CU while outside the SM is pretty pointless; we get all the downsides and few of the upsides. We may as well Remain.
Trying to cobble a Brexit deal in panic in 3 weeks is ludicrous. Far better to revoke, participate in the EU elections and take a year, whatever it takes, to work out what we want to do and come up with a realistic well-thought out plan with as much cross-party consensus as possible.
I thought you were up for a CU + SM Brexit?
It seems to me to be a bit pointless. We end up following rules without having a say in them. That’s not taking back control. In fact, it’s humiliating for a self-respecting country. It’s just a formal version of May kicking her heels in a side room while the EU decided what extension they would grant.
Indeed. And that’s why I challenged you on it for being pointless over the many months (up until now) that you were advocating it.
Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable
isam you're back! Long time, no see!
Yes! A surprise to me too.
Its like the scene in The Godfather where Don Corleone cannot refuse a request on the occasion of his daughter's wedding day, the PB equivalent is a 15th anniversary...
So what payback are you expecting to make for fulfilling the request? From memory in the end the bloke (an undertaker) had to make Sonny Corleone's corpse respectable for his mamma.
Welcome back.
Yes, you are right... "Someday, and that day may never come..."
I hadn't thought about it, hopefully not the same one!
Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable
isam you're back! Long time, no see!
Yes! A surprise to me too.
Its like the scene in The Godfather where Don Corleone cannot refuse a request on the occasion of his daughter's wedding day, the PB equivalent is a 15th anniversary...
Great to see you! Hope life and work treating you well.
Thanks, actually I cant complain. Same back to you!
I really thought that one didn't work. The character in the film was warning the person not to say it again or else, not asking him to
Quite right. Would be cracking on a pro Brexit anti 2nd ref march though.
Yes.
What really surprised me was the lack of attention paid to the claim that the petition organiser had been guilty of some pretty nasty threatening comments towards Theresa May, as well as talking of modifying weapons to use etc. It was on Guido, so maybe people know it to be overstated, but in the light of the murder of Jo Cox I thought people would be appalled at such behavior rather than following it in gung ho
If we are going to have a foreigner I would rather have Barnier. As I have said on here a number of times before he has played the whole thing with such a straight bat and with a clear sense of honour that I suspect he is a secret fan of our noble game of cricket.
The ERG will clearly vote against anything (other than no deal) and therefore can, and must, be written off if the crisis is to be solved. That much is obvious.
ERG will vote against any EU relationship short of mining the Channel.
Corbyn will whip against anything the Tories suggest.
Most of Labour backbench and SNP/LDs/Tig will vote against anything that involves leaving.
The DUP will just say no to everything out of habit.
How can anyone pass anything?
Not really true, indicative votes will be free votes and most Labour backbenchers come from Leave seats and would happily vote for BINO, as may even the SNP given over a third of SNP voters voted Leave
Their members are Remainian though. And they don't have to vote down brexit, they just have to vote down the soft brexit that all the most pro-brexit people are saying is a sell-out. Would they defy a whip to back the government? Jeremy Corbyn won't back the government, right?
Torygraph suggesting some ERGers touting Nicky Morgan as a 'Unity' candidate.
Clearly they think they have Morgan under their thumb after that awful second Malthouse Compromise. I'm sure reality will evade them again.
A leader in hock to the ERG doesn't cut the mustard. All of this is to cut them out of the process; a just reward for the role they have played creating this mess.
Comments
It's dead simple. The ballot paper contains three questions:
Deal or No Deal?
Deal or Remain?
No Deal or Remain?
If No Deal really is the will of the people, it will win. But I suspect that almost everyone who claims "Remaining in the EU is better than this deal," would actually pick "Deal" on the old Deal vs Remain question.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/09/culture-secretary-jeremy-wright-reveals-his-love-of-lego
We can all agree it is time for a PM not from the dump, the dump has ruined British politics.
Its like the scene in The Godfather where Don Corleone cannot refuse a request on the occasion of his daughter's wedding day, the PB equivalent is a 15th anniversary...
More seriously, this is a situation like the Tories in 1997 and Labour in 2010, when a party has hung on too long and is simply at the end of its tether. I can't see any of the candidates forming a stable government at this point.
The last march produced some decent stuff for pictures for thread headers.
https://twitter.com/RobinSaphra/status/1109454195164397570
Tory Party split over tariff reform -- free trade or Imperial preference.
Baldwin called an unnecessary election -- and lost.
Baldwin was accused of putting party before country.
Baldwin spent his holidays taking long walks.
Theresa May is Stanley Baldwin.
No I'm clueless! I had £37 at 1000 on Portillo to take over from May in a Jose/Ole stylee!!
Lovely to see you back @isam!
Scion of German retail business?
Petition signatures: 4,727,060
If Brexit were named Phil Woolas, we'd have a second referendum by morning.
Which is why we cannot completely rule out a fourth candidate emerging.
Edit - Oh, I see there is big breaking news....iSam is back.
OK what I mean is Tory capitulation and acceptance of #CorbynsCustomsUnion
Deal signed with Donald Tusk singing Ohhhhh Jeeèrrŕemmmy Cooooorbyn
ERG will vote against any EU relationship short of mining the Channel.
Corbyn will whip against anything the Tories suggest.
Most of Labour backbench and SNP/LDs/Tig will vote against anything that involves leaving.
The DUP will just say no to everything out of habit.
How can anyone pass anything?
Welcome back.
Be-leave!
Barnier would make a superb PM.
What really surprised me was the lack of attention paid to the claim that the petition organiser had been guilty of some pretty nasty threatening comments towards Theresa May, as well as talking of modifying weapons to use etc. It was on Guido, so maybe people know it to be overstated, but in the light of the murder of Jo Cox I thought people would be appalled at such behavior rather than following it in gung ho
Don't tell Shirley the racist
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-47678275
That's certainly one way of putting it...I have a feeling if the petition was pro-Brexit the BBC might have provided a bit more detail.
I hadn't thought about it, hopefully not the same one!
Thanks for the welcome
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IL2XwSkFJQ
Where Nigel 4 England!!